Open 814: CultD3 CULT WINS

[Marky Mark]

Afternoon all, let's get down to business

VOTE: Enchant

Still bitter about you trouncing me in Sybil's Elegy

[Marky Mark]

Hello, i claim Mafia Goon.

I knew it lol.

[Marky Mark]

RVS Breaker: My vote was serious. Discuss.

I mean this seems unlikely, so I'm guessing you were trying to stir discussion, which is meh but somewhat LAMIST

[Marky Mark]

I mean I feel like lolhammering would be a scum claim, but I've been bitten too many times by town lolhammering

[Marky Mark]

Actually this opening salvo by Flea is so

prima facie

silly that only town could think it was a good idea.

VOTE: Lemons

I've only played with town!flea (twice iirc), but they are a hard one to sort due to stuff exactly like this. While my first impression was LAMIST, its actually acheived its purpose of getting discussion going, so TR++ for that

[Marky Mark]

And on that note, I'm gonna head to bed, so I shall bid you all adieu

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: Flea
Strange fakesolve tbh

This just feels like a low-effort consensus vote.

VOTE: T3

Why "strange" eg as opposed to scummy?

[Marky Mark]

@T3 what made you turn 180 on your vote on Flea in such a short space of time? Feel free to also answer the (related) question I posed earlier ref why "strange" as a choice of description.

[Marky Mark]

Lemons can have townpoints for caring about the solve enough to check up on meta. Scum can do this too, but in my experience its a towny thing more often than not.

[Marky Mark]

Anyone else is ??? and needs to do something.

You could start by answering my post addressed to you!

Am lowkey sus of this slot - posts in the thread to refute criticism but doesn't add anything about the wider game or ask any new questions.

[Marky Mark]

The strange was more "i would be surprised if this logic came from town" strange.

I get the sentiment, just seemed an odd way to say scummy if that was the point you were making at the time

[Marky Mark]

Like idk seems off to find it sus enough in the first place to vote but then back down after a mild prodding but then tbf idk if scum would be so blatant about backing down like that

[Marky Mark]

Who's scum rn off the top of your head if not Flea?

[Marky Mark]

Anyone else is ??? and needs to do something.

You could start by answering my post addressed to you!

Am lowkey sus of this slot - posts in the thread to refute criticism but doesn't add anything about the wider game or ask any new questions.

this is a dogshit post

he's putting pressure on a slot that didn't answer his question and that is objectively a good thing

Pipe down - yes, there's nothing wrong with following up on a question (in fact, it's actually towny), but when that is literally all the slot had done at that point it feels like hiding in plain sight

[Marky Mark]

we're wasting time. enchant, i've confirmed that flea's information is correct. the push they've made has been responded to. there's no secret "role PM receipt status cop". what is the purpose of this line of questioning?

I would say busy work but I can also understand wanting to understand

Lemons strikes me as intense so far but I think calling checking the facts here busywork is a bit of a reach

[Marky Mark]

Like I could see the whole wasting time thing as being town who's hyper focused on trying to solve

[Marky Mark]

Now that we've solved the mystery of the role PMs, perhaps we'll get some OC from MajorMinor

[Marky Mark]

There are other slots who had done less (and have still done less) and yet you're not applying the same scrutiny to them yet. Strange.

None spring to mind - perhaps you could enlighten me?

[Marky Mark]

Evening all, just reading up

[Marky Mark]

before i start catching up i just want to say that this dogshit pseudo-meta talk about whether or not whoever confirmed whatever the fuck role PM before or after they saw a role or didn't or whatever else is among the dumbest, most brain dead, shit-tier fucking dumpster fire conversation i have ever seen in my life

if you gave me a fucking lobotomy i'd lose less brain cells than i did reading through that trash

Let's start here with a side note. Can we tone the explicit/aggressive language down a bit please? It's supposed to be a game

[Marky Mark]

There are other slots who had done less (and have still done less) and yet you're not applying the same scrutiny to them yet. Strange.

This really felt like you were trying to shade me here and accuse me of being disingenuous. Yet, when I replied to you in near real time, there was a significant pause before then you came up with 2 slots that I would argue had been notably more active than you at that point in the game and the backup mod.

If I genuinely felt like another player was singling me out, I would call them out based on their behaviours, but here it feels like you had to retrospectively find a justification for your accusation against me when I called you out on it.

[Marky Mark]

this is contradictory

a slot cannot by definition _only_ follow up to a question they asked, because they can't follow up to a question they didn't ask. it follows, then, that they asked a question, which is something

why are you misrepresenting the slot's contributions?

My point was that the slot had not made any effort to do anything else at all other than wait for the answer to their question. There was no reason why they couldn't advance the game in other ways while waiting for that player to respond - it just felt like coasting.

Your last para in particular feels like it is being written in bad faith - I don't think I am misrepping MM here even if I disagree with them (and fwiw MM made a later point about why they wanted to focus on following that question through) but you seem keen to frame the situation as such

[Marky Mark]

Assuming Setup A, these are the potential setups.

Why setup A in particular? I feel like I'm missing something here

[Marky Mark]

After some deliberation

VOTE: osuka

I'm pretty wary of

MM

Major Minor and could happily vote there after they tried to shade me hard for singling them out and then had to invent some less-active slots when called out on their accusation.

That being said, Osuka's 152 just feels very slimy and more likely to have been made in bad faith

--pedit lol Flea ref setup A

--pedit I totally hadn't twigged about the whole MM thing. Post updated.

[Marky Mark]

On a waaaay lighter note, the mental image of Major Minor's SRs of Flea and I in one of their earlier posts made me chuckle. IIRC Flea is from Yorkshire, so if we ran a cult between us, it would be British af. Compulsory tea and custard creams for all initiates

[Marky Mark]

I must admit I lean slightly towards Twinings, but we can table this for debate at our first Cult AGM

[Marky Mark]

There are other slots who had done less (and have still done less) and yet you're not applying the same scrutiny to them yet. Strange.

This really felt like you were trying to shade me here and accuse me of being disingenuous. Yet, when I replied to you in near real time, there was a significant pause before then you came up with 2 slots that I would argue had been notably more active than you at that point in the game and the backup mod.

If I genuinely felt like another player was singling me out, I would call them out based on their behaviours, but here it feels like you had to retrospectively find a justification for your accusation against me when I called you out on it.

...am I now being pushed because I had to step away from my computer for more than 10 minutes? Like, legitimately? Because I didn't respond to you 5 minutes after you responded to me?

You'd made a couple of posts in quick succession so were clearly online. I then replied within 4 minutes but it took you 40 minutes to respond when I pushed you for actual examples. Of course, it could have just been unfortunate timing, I can't rule that out, but I hope you can see why it is sus.

I guess the deeper question is this:

Did you have specific slots in mind at the time when you shaded me for singling you out?

[Marky Mark]

If you didn't have specific slots in mind at the time (ie was more of a rough feeling) then why phrase your post to shade me over it before checking your facts?

If you did have those specific slots in mind then I would question your judgement as the non-mod examples you gave were more active than you at that point in time.

[Marky Mark]

At any rate, I'm keen to dig a bit deeper into your thought process here

Any on that note, I shall bid you all a good night as I have this thing called work in the morning. Take care!

[Marky Mark]

*And

[Marky Mark]

But see, this wasn't a question of raw activity. In my mind, the accusation was less about activity and more about the implication that I wasn't "adding anything to the wider game" or "asking new questions". I still contend that I had done just as much as T3/osuka at that point, because I had tunneled in on one train of thought and was pursuing it. My reaction was "Wait, why is adding new questions a metric for engagement? And if that's the case, why am I getting shouted out for it? There are other low impact players out there that I can't name a single actual thing they've done." I had the Maruchan post in mind, though not necessarily Maruchan's name attached to it. Then upon going back to examine the playerlist, I saw all these names where I was like, I can't name a single thing this person has done of value or any questions they've added to the game state. Which lead to my summary post.

That's a valid point ref activy != progressing the game and you're right that I was simplifying things somewhat in that regard when summarizing.

From your description of your thought process above, you more had a "fuzzy" awareness that there were other slots that had contributed less, rather than specific slots in mind (please correct me if you think I'm misrepping here). That being the case, it feels scummy that you tried to shade me over singling you out, without actually confirming your suspicions first to see if I actually was.

[Marky Mark]

Fwiw, Major's push on Enchant in 230 is goodposting though, and feels accurate

[Marky Mark]

After some deliberation

VOTE: osuka

I'm pretty wary of

MM

Major Minor and could happily vote there after they tried to shade me hard for singling them out and then had to invent some less-active slots when called out on their accusation.

That being said, Osuka's 152 just feels very slimy and more likely to have been made in bad faith

--pedit lol Flea ref setup A

--pedit I totally hadn't twigged about the whole MM thing. Post updated.

so your case on me is 152? the post where i nudged you?

if the wiki ever needs an example of omgus, feel free to point here

You're trying to discredit my legitimate point here as OMGUS, which is a bit cheeky

I was making a serious point that you were opportunistically twisting my words about MajorMinor to push me. Aside from the tangent that it's often better to let the accused slot defend themselves to see how theyll react, I stand by my earlier point that I wasn't misrepping them and they could have done other things while waiting for an answer to their question.

If you had tried to refute my point or explain why you think I'm mistaken, I would get that, but just calling it omgus is trivialising the whole thing

[Marky Mark]

I'm getting a slight scumread on T3. I do think Major is much scummier though. I just don't want him at E-1 yet.

VOTE: T3

Rayna had felt towny prior to this, but I don't get why the whole not putting someone at E-1 thing. I don't think there's any real danger of hammer at this point of the day, and it just feels weird that they are voting avoiding voting the main slot that they are pushing

[Marky Mark]

Current top TRs for me are Flea/Umlaut. I'm gonna be V/LA for the weekend due to hosting visitors, but have booked a day's leave on Monday, so will have plenty of capacity to catch up then. Don't have too much fun in my absence

[Marky Mark]

Hey all, thanks for bearing with me. I've finished hosting visitors and can now give this game the time and attention it deserves. As a side note, I am now not expecting to be V/LA again for a while (mid-July)

[Marky Mark]

Looking at the new posts from over the weekend, lemons is definitely climbing up my TRs in terms of the analytical thinking they are applying to the game (eg 262/264)

On that note, let me try and respond to a couple of things from Lemons (264) and MajorMinor (276) in terms of calling out vs singling out. I think a lot of this is due to poor wording/ambiguity from me in terms of not articulating my point clearly enough (ironically, one of the reasons I started playing again in 2020 was that I wanted to get better at expressing my thoughts in writing as it's something I'm trying to improve in the day job)

-I noticed that Major hadn't done much to advance the game. They'd asked a question, and rather than comment on other parts of the game or interact with other players while waiting, their next post was basically a holding pattern and reaction to Flea's post saying other slots needed to do more saying that they were waiting for an answer to the question.
-I

called this out

(ie brought it to the attention of the other players), as it looked like coasting to me, and seemed scummy.
-Major then accused me of

singling them out unfairly

(ie focussing on them in a biased manner) and heavily implied I was scummy because I wasn't calling out other players for similar behaviour (ie coasting, not advancing the game)
-I then queried who the alleged other slots that weren't advancing the game were that Major felt I wasn't treating equally as I genuinely couldn't think of any and wanted to understand who Major had in mind
-After a pause, Major came up with two slots that I would argue had done more to push the game forwards (this is subjective of course) and the backup mod

TL;DR - I think a lot of confusion is due to the fact that yes, I was singling out Major in 101 for not advancing the game, but no, I wasn't (IMO) singling them out

unfairly

, which is how Major tried to paint the picture in 136

[Marky Mark]

A lot of the follow up posting on that strand of thinking was trying to understand Major's motivations behind shading me in 136, such as whether they had particular slots in mind, when they said I was unfairly picking on them compared to others. I've still got my eye on them, but I do think their posting since has been reasonably towny.

--pedit, I will get to the Enchant stuff in a minute, but let's not give the scum free information pls

[Marky Mark]

The Enchant random vote thing is a bit weird but fairly NAI IMO. In terms of them more generally, I'm finding it hard to follow their motivations, especially in some of their more recent posting. I've only played against them with me town vs them scum, where they lurked/low-efforted for the majority of the game. I think their earlier point ref slots revealing any info they have if they have been hammered already seemed legit, but I'm not a massive fan of unnecessary claims and giving scum easy targets to recruit.

I already pointed, osuka and you are main suspects from me, because of likelyhood of distancing.

This was waaay back on page 3 - do you still think this is the most AI thing that has happened this game? Is there anything that has happened in the last 200 pages that has struck you as particularly AI?

[Marky Mark]

Let me stick down a couple of general thoughts and then I'll stop spamming the thread for a bit.

1.) I still think that Osuka has been the slot who has been the most disingenuous in terms of misconstruing events and pushing in bad faith (eg their attempt to discredit/reduce my point against them to OMGUS). I'm keen to dig into this once they are back from VLA as I reckon we have a good chance of finding scum here.

2.) Having just returned from V/LA myself, I'm going to be a massive hypocrite and suggest that we try and inject some energy back into this game. With 6 days or so to deadline, leaving things to the last minute increases the chance of a miscalculation and just plays into scum's hands IMO. Of note, Major and Rayna both promised content over the weekend, so it will be good to hear from those slots soon.

[Marky Mark]

for the sake of certainty, i think it's worth it for everyone to declare outright whether they can or cannot cc, using umlaut's post above as a guide. as long as no one declares their full role (DON'T do this), i don't think there's any disadvantage, because scum already knows the full setup now. if we don't get a cc, enchant is town and scum knows one tpr (enchant). if we do get a cc, enchant is scum and scum knows one tpr (the counterclaimer).

i

cannot cc

, and i would have expected scum to claim either unrecruitable or VT in this situation. this is looking like a pretty bad position if no one counterclaims.

I cannot CC.

Fwiw, independent of CC shenanigans, I agree that Rolestopper would be a bold fakeclaim for scum here and in my experience. The claiming under minimal pressure aspect itself is NAI and I've seen it done by both factions (eg scum!T3 claiming BP and town!etine claiming babysitter in the large normal that Enchant, T3 and I have just finished).

[Marky Mark]

IF we can deduce that Enchant's claim is legit through lack of CCs then it at least gives us a useful scumhunting tool I suppose as we can then go back through votes on him and try to separate out any that look like they were made in bad faith or were people jumping on the bandwagon

[Marky Mark]

hit me with any questions you have, i'll be back on later after work to respond

A good place to start would be my point in 191, which you tried to write off as OMGUS at the time. Why not just give a response to my point, even if you disagreed with me, rather than trying to discredit me? I think most people would agree that the point I made went beyond OMGUS - it was the

means

that you pushed me by that was disingenuous.

I'm also keen to understand where your head is at atm in terms of top town/scumreads. You're not voting, and while you have commented on individual actions, I can't find much in your ISO in terms of how you are seeing the overall game.

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE: ench
VOTE: major

Putting votes on separate lines for readability.
~ Kori

Why Major?

[Marky Mark]

I'm heading to bed, but just wanted to say that it's great seeing the thread look more lively again. Night all

[Marky Mark]

You posted that after the general PR claim but before the rolestopper claim

Enchants pr claim felt like a scum cop out claim earlier. Like that's the kind of thing I would do as scum in ENchants situation there.

Enchant only had 2 votes at the time if I recall correctly. I don't think scum would feel enough pressure to fake claim like that.

I mean T3 literally fakeclaimed BP as scum in our recent large normal with minimal pressure on them so arguments over pressure and choice of role to fakeclaim do have some merit to them but nothing is impossible

[Marky Mark]

But what is more useful (and is leaning me towards thinking that Enchant's claim is legit) is the fact that nobody so far has stepped forward as being able to counter claim. AFAIK Lemons, Flea and I have all stated that we cannot counter claim (and Umlaut heavily implied that he couldn't) so if we can get the other slots to step up and state their position then we ought to be able to get a quasi-clear on the Enchant slot, which will then give us a useful baseline to scumhunt from.

[Marky Mark]

While I wait for Osuka to get back to me, I had a look over a couple of slots that have felt towny but have also been somewhat around the edges of the game, Umlaut and Raya. Umlaut looks very town throughout their ISO imo, but a couple of Raya's posts stood out when I was flicking back through them:

Is it possible Enchant is struggling to come up with reads because they're scum and know who town is? I thought Enchant was better than that but I can't remember specific meta off the top of my head.

Well this slowed down.

Is it possible Enchant is struggling to come up with reads because they're scum and know who town is? I thought Enchant was better than that but I can't remember specific meta off the top of my head.

It's possible, sure. I have no meta one way or the other with Enchant so I can't say whether they find it hard to fake reads. I'm inclined to say that randing their vote is so conspicuous I wouldn't expect it from scum, but blah blah wifom who knows.

Maybe but scum could easily do it as a way to keep posting without really giving any actual info. But then of course blah blah wifom as you said.

I do know Enchant can do better than just mechanics. Idk if this is just a newly gained frustration or if they're hiding behind the mechanics talk as scum

In light of Enchant's claim and the likelihood of them now being town, the above in hindsight have a bit of a vibe of wanting to put the idea of Enchant being scum in people's minds, but without explicitly SRing Enchant or voting the slot. Maybe I'm reading too much into this but I could see how scum could pull this to try and encourage others to vote for Enchant without being in a bad spot themselves, should Enchant flip town

[Marky Mark]

Hey all, just reading up

[Marky Mark]

I think it was fair for me to be concerned when I know Enchant doesn't normally stick to only mechanics and is capable of much better. It makes a lot more sense that Enchant was so focused on mechanics now that they have claimed.

Ok, let me unpick this from a different angle - did you or did you not SR Enchant when you made those comments? If you did, then why not say that rather than skirting around the subject?

[Marky Mark]

While I wait for Osuka to get back to me

what do you want me to get back to you about

hit me with any questions you have, i'll be back on later after work to respond

A good place to start would be my point in 191, which you tried to write off as OMGUS at the time. Why not just give a response to my point, even if you disagreed with me, rather than trying to discredit me? I think most people would agree that the point I made went beyond OMGUS - it was the

means

that you pushed me by that was disingenuous.

I'm also keen to understand where your head is at atm in terms of top town/scumreads. You're not voting, and while you have commented on individual actions, I can't find much in your ISO in terms of how you are seeing the overall game.

[Marky Mark]

Why do people insist on answering around my questions?

I know it's pride month T3, but I need a STRAIGHT ANSWER.

I mean I'm always in favour of promoting LGBT causes, but this is the first time I've seen it used as a vehicle to push someone

[Marky Mark]

If I'm counting correctly then everyone has stated that they can't CC Enchant, except for Umlaut who heavily implied that he couldn't so that is near enough. I guess that means that Enchant is pretty much conftown, which is a useful reference point at least.

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE: ench
VOTE: major

Putting votes on separate lines for readability.
~ Kori

Why Major?

Seeing as you're online T3 and I'm already nudging people to actually answer my questions...

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE: ench
VOTE: major

Putting votes on separate lines for readability.
~ Kori

Why Major?

Seeing as you're online T3 and I'm already nudging people to actually answer my questions...

Honestly I don't know of anyone better at this point to vote.

That neatly avoids the root of the question. Why is Major better than the other options in your opinion?

[Marky Mark]

I'm headed off to bed, but will catch up with all you lovely people tomorrow

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: T3

Fuck it. I don't want to crossvote Osuka and I would prefer if you guys didn't eliminate town D1.

... so you're gonna cross-vote T3? (who incidentally has not responded to my question about why he's voting you, despite me asking it within ~1 minute of his previous post)

[Marky Mark]

I had a scumlean for sure but it wasn't strong. Sometimes I like to pick at players I scumlean by giving little bits of pressure that way without writing a whole case. Sometimes I post like that as reminders to myself later on, kind of like thinking out loud.

This feels a bit off. It's pretty fence-sitty and markedly different to your progression on T3, where you explictly called out that you had a slight scumread on them from early on.

[Marky Mark]

I guess we should really start talking in terms of PoEs, given how close we are getting to deadline.

I still think we should be flipping osuka rn. Their ISO highlights include bending my words to try and push me (eg 152), trying to deflect my case on them as OMGUS rather than actually work through it (233), followed by acting like they were super open to questions (315), but then stalling and disappearing when I actually asked questions. I'd genuinely encourage people to go and look back at their ISO (it's not long) and make their own minds up.

Failing that, I'd settle for a compromise elim on T3 or Raya. I don't think they are scum together, but I reckon there is a decent chance that 1 of the 2 could be scum, especially with their recent posting.

I also need to go and look back at the Flea/Major interactions - Major's weird interaction with me where they said I singled them out unfairly but then struggled to back it up was scummy, but their posts otherwise have felt very towny, so I need to look back over why Flea is pushing them and whether it looks like it is in good faith or not.

[Marky Mark]

yeah im sorry about my activity, i have been extremely busy with work. just yesterday, i was working until 3 am my time

that said, ive already addressed everything else youve mentioned here and i won't be doing it again because it's mostly dogshit and i can't be bothered to keep repeating myself

Yet again you try to trivialise my points against you by calling it dogshit rather than arguing against it logically. You have 100% not addressed the questions I pointed your way (I guess your insinuation that flea is cult is a partial answer to the one about your reads, but certainly not a comprehensive one) so why act like you were happy to work with me and answer my questions if you're just going to try and trivialise them and bat them away?

[Marky Mark]

Like if you think Flea is scum then why aren't you voting them, and what other reads do you have on the rest of the plist?

[Marky Mark]

Phoneposting

So today has been taken over by some home improvements complications, involving a hole in my floor. On the plus side I'm now the proud owner of a nailgun, which I have been using to rectify the problem. My desktop is currently stacked up with the rest of the furniture in the hallway until I can finish the job and put the underlay and carpet back down, but I'll try and get back up and running asap


Game wise, I've had a quick read up and I'm very aware of the deadline running down and it's really not in our interests here to have a rushed elim at deadline. Osuka is still hiding in plain sight by avoiding and discrediting rather than engaging in a logical level and I'm genuinely perplexed that people largely seem to be ok with this. That being said, if there is no more support for an osuka wagon forthcoming, I'll look for a compromise elim in the next 24h or so

[Marky Mark]

Floorboards/carpet etc sorted and back up and running on desktop. Just reading up

[Marky Mark]

A couple of general observations before I move onto Osuka:

Actually I'm going to go ahead and completely change my mind about Dwlee, they're likely town based solely on the strength of 405-406 in general (or else Dwlee is excellent at faking town motivation) and their indignance at my voting them seems genuine.

I got some town vibes from osuka earlier in the game (and this is from someone who just picked him out as scum in another game) but I don't really remember why anymore

Let's just stick to plan A.

VOTE: Major Minor

(My underlines) - Umlaut generally feels towny but this feels lazy and like he isn't interested in trying to accurately sort the slot

Raya posts are pinging me as increasingly narrative/IIOA, eg 460/462. I'd be ok going there as a backup elim option

[Marky Mark]

you asked me loaded questions. i refuse to answer "why are you misrepresenting my points" when i didn't actually do that

if you want to ask some good faith questions and start from the start, i can do that

You portraying my push on you as being OMGUS is 100% a misrep of the argument I was making about why your 152 is scummy, so you've got some nerve trying to shade me over bad faith here when you've spent the game trying to discredit me.

Furthermore, the other question I originally asked was about what your reads were, which you then go on to explain (in response to a later, similar, question from me), so this doesn't even make sense

[Marky Mark]

Like if you think Flea is scum then why aren't you voting them, and what other reads do you have on the rest of the plist?

i'm not sure how i feel about you in particular at first. you strike me as towny but there's something about it that's offputting and i can't really put my finger on it. i do believe everything you've done so far is within your scum range

umlaut kind of screams town atm
enchant has absolutely braindead takes but i'm not entirely sure that's necessarily ai. willing to exec this slot
t3 sort of doesn't do shit but that's signature t3 and as far as i can tell, it's nai. still willing to exec this slot because he's not gonna do shit all game

i dont have excellent reads because the game stalled and ive been extremely busy so i'm very sorry about my own activity (even if i cant really do anything about everyone else's). i'll be here to talk to you again when you come back

In fairness, trying to push near-conf town PR (Enchant) is wading into TSTBS territory so have some townpoints for that. The stuff on umlaut/t3 is reasonably surface level but meh NAI.

[Marky Mark]

A VC would be really useful rn.

My overall position is pretty similar to where I was at last night - I don't know how Osuka can make posts like 476 with a straight face and it's a joke that his frequent discrediting isn't getting more attention. @Flea would you be willing to vote there?

I've been flicking back over the Major/Flea interactions and just have that horrible sinking feeling that I'm missing something as I'm finding it quite hard to get a good read on that face of the game. Independently, I reckon Major has more chance of being town then Flea though.

If Flea and/or others aren't interested in the near future in voting Osuka then I'll take a Raya or T3 wagon, whichever feels like it has more traction.

I'm gonna be out and about tomorrow but will be home in the evening and will be around on Monday in the hours leading up to the deadline so that we can deal with any last minute issues.

[Marky Mark]

Like just look at Osuka's SRs. His willingness to exec T3 is largely on policy grounds, his take on me is "could be towny but feels scummy too" and he still hasn't voted Flea, who he is allgedly SRing, or explained why he isn't

[Marky Mark]

I'm gonna be on for the next 10 mins or so if people want to chat and then will be calling it a night

[Marky Mark]

Im going to go an a limb and say it's "because [I'm] talking out of [my] ass"

I don't quite follow?

[Marky Mark]

Ah right, with you

@Flea would you be willing to vote there?

I'm going to bed - catch all you lovely people tomorrow

[Marky Mark]

your original argument could very well not have been made in bad faith but it was definitely at least bad logic

And if you'd said this from the start and come up with a logical counterargument then I'd probably get that. Trying to discredit me rather than my logic with the OMGUS stuff etc is why I think there's a very good chance of you flipping scum here

[Marky Mark]

Like just look at Osuka's SRs. His willingness to exec T3 is largely on policy grounds, his take on me is "could be towny but feels scummy too" and he still hasn't voted Flea, who he is allgedly SRing, or explained why he isn't

i havent voted flea because i have no idea what the vc is at and i think at least one slot is e-1

Putting to one side the issue of your lack of awareness of gamestate, which is something I'd expect someone trying to solve to care about enough to be tracking, there is a votecount right above this post. There are 0 votes on Flea, so why are you still not voting if your stated position is that you SR Flea?

[Marky Mark]

osuka's tione reads as far less confrontational as when he was scum.

Have you not read their ISO? Just ctrl+F for "Dogshit"

[Marky Mark]

Or is this a watered-down version of Osuka?

[Marky Mark]

At any rate, while the rudeness/confrontationalness rubs me up the wrong way, its the disingenuous pushes and seeming lack of interest in solving that are pinging me here

[Marky Mark]

The problem is, it looks like we don't have enough people interested in an Osuka elim even if Flea comes across and of my backup elim choices (aka the lurk round the edges crew), nobody outside of {T3, Raya} is voting either on them.

I'm not keen on eliming Umlaut (strongish TR) or Major (mild TR) so I guess that leaves Dwlee and Flea, both of whom are nullish to me but I'd take over umlaut or Major simply due to not being a TR

I remember @Enchant being keen on a Raya elim at one point, are there any more takers for an elim within Raya/T3?

[Marky Mark]

Being frank, I suspect Osuka would be a direct (much better) alternative to Major, given that there are already 3 votes on Major and Enchant has signalled that they'd be ok with a Major elim too

[Marky Mark]

I think eliminating Marky has the best chance of hitting the cult leader here.

VOTE: Marky

If you're gonna try to put me in the frame for a last-minute miselim, at least justify your vote

[Marky Mark]

I mean that's a great argument to push someone with as it's entirely subjective

[Marky Mark]

Although fwiw I don't understand what motivation scum would have to vote me this close to deadline given the lack of existing votes on me compared to other potential miselim targets, so you could well be town here

[Marky Mark]

so you could well be town here

Your role pm should tell you this.

This is a straight-up discredit and you know it is too. I'm trying to sort you in good faith here.

[Marky Mark]

Being frank, I suspect Osuka would be a direct (much better) alternative to Major, given that there are already 3 votes on Major and Enchant has signalled that they'd be ok with a Major elim too

The second Osuka starts getting run up he's just gonna hammer me at this point.

Yeah, that's a fair point, I hadn't really considered that Osuka might do that

VOTE: Raya might be a more achievable alternative (me, Major and Enchant have all shown interest AFAIK) and has a much better chance of flipping scum than Major IMO

--pedit @Dwlee fair. Maybe I'm just too sensitive after getting Osuka'd as I read that as you trying to smear me

[Marky Mark]

Ah yeah, took a moment for me to twig there

[Marky Mark]

Yeah, will have to park that one and revisit tomorrow. If anyone hasn't stated their position on Major (I think most have tbf) it would be good to hear from people pre-flip

--pedit why so? Lack of claim?

[Marky Mark]

If cop outs with an innocent and we ignore Enchant we get a pool of 5. Assuming I'm not the inno that leaves 4 people, at least 2 of which are cult.

This only makes sense from your POV lol - we don't know that you are town

[Marky Mark]

Correct, random eliminating is indeed bad. So we should vote off scumreads. I didn't scumread major so now it's my turn to choose people to kill.

Hammers Major.

"I didn't SR major"

[Marky Mark]

I mean in fairness it looked like Major was gonna die at deadline with the most votes anyways, so I don't think CL would hammer there and draw attention. They may have already been on the wagon tho

[Marky Mark]

I also don't think Flea is likely to be CL due to how hard he pushed major D1. too much risk of him getting elimed D2 as a result

[Marky Mark]

I literally remember you saying you hammered because they didn't claim. That implies there was an element of SRing them

[Marky Mark]

Let's POE this bad boy - who ISN'T likely to be CL?

Enchant almost certainly not due to un CCed claim
Flea as already mentioned was being v aggressive
Dwlee I don't think hammers end of D1 as CL as the wagon would likely have gone through anyways and it feels like uncessesary attention

That leaves Raya / T3 / Osuka / Umlaut - of these, Umlaut felt v town D1

So basically my d1 POE hasn't really changed, except that Raya/T3 have gone up a bit and Osuka has gone down a bit due to being on/off the town wagon respectively

[Marky Mark]

V tempting to vote this

no regrets if this flips town ngl

for what feels like forced bravado

[Marky Mark]

I'm gonna VOTE: Raya tho largely because of the wagon position on Major and the way she flipped her vote there from T3

I still want to understand why Osuka refused to vote late d1 tho, even after a votecount was put down literally right before one of his posts. Aside from the read on Flea (which I'm starting to think may have had some merit), he seemed keen to avoid having a position on much of the game, even when directly asked

[Marky Mark]

Marky are you on the dark side?

Nah mate

[Marky Mark]

Osuka is sus af but honestly not worth bothering with.

T3 is my main sus rn.

"Osuka Sus"
"Osuka not bothering with"

Lol what

[Marky Mark]

Flea + Marky + Osuka scumteam Osuka cult leader solve SUBMIT

Mate if I was scum with Osuka, we would deserve an oscar for our interactions D1

[Marky Mark]

Let's POE this bad boy - who ISN'T likely to be CL?

Enchant almost certainly not due to un CCed claim
Flea as already mentioned was being v aggressive
Dwlee I don't think hammers end of D1 as CL as the wagon would likely have gone through anyways and it feels like uncessesary attention

That leaves Raya / T3 / Osuka / Umlaut - of these, Umlaut felt v town D1

So basically my d1 POE hasn't really changed, except that Raya/T3 have gone up a bit and Osuka has gone down a bit due to being on/off the town wagon respectively

You've been after me nonstop but you barely gave any good reason. The "shade" on Enchant is simply just how I post. And even if I was scum I wouldn't have known they were a power role or anything so why shade like that anyway. You can see that I will state my scumreads. I will put little self reminders and thought process statements for anything less than a scumlean.

I'm gonna VOTE: Raya tho largely because of the wagon position on Major and the way she flipped her vote there from T3

Your main part of my read is that I'm in a bad position on the wagon but you're not even considering my reasoning. Just purely my position? And of course I switched there. T3 had no interest and I gave my reasoning for Major which despite the flip I still think was valid.

Flea + Marky + Osuka scumteam Osuka cult leader solve SUBMIT

Replace osuka with Raya and that's where I'm at.

Why me? You never gave reasoning

The way you suggested Enchant could be scum without explictly SRing him was different to your interactions with other slots you SRed and I've already pointed this out.

I've also commented on your post where you give your reasons for Major (460) - I get that you justified your vote, although the reasoning felt like a narrative summary of major's interactions. I also get that your vote on major was a compromise from T3, but it is also objectively the penultimate vote on a town wagon, which is frequently a place where scum are found. Ultimately, votes can be justified in a number of ways, but at a basic level of the game, votes on the middle/end of a town wagon have a decent chance of coming from scum. Not always, but frequently.

[Marky Mark]

I'm heading to work and am going to be watching the football this evening, but will be back on tomorrow

[Marky Mark]

still not convinced osuka is trying to solve btw

[Marky Mark]

Well that escalated quickly

Cult no-recruiting last night seems pretty unlikely IMO (and as such, Dwlee's 702 feels like wishful thinking)

[Marky Mark]

Here's where I'm at:
If Flea is town then Raya/T3's CL equity is through the roof as Osuka is effectivly clear barring a no-action
If Flea was culted then Osuka not necessarily CL, but there's a decent chance given how Flea came to their aid when they were under pressure

So I guess this essentially boils down to
-were the crumbs obvious enough that the cult would have spotted them
and
-if the cult had spotted the crumbs from flea, would they have gone for him or Enchant

[Marky Mark]

Raya's 673 all makes sense but I can't shake the feeling that they are playing around the edges of this game. I need to go back and look over T3's ISO as they haven't been particularly memorable either

[Marky Mark]

So I'm going with Osuka is clear. I believe Flea and don't think they would've been recruited since they were quite aggressive. I think cult would have gone for someone more townread but less confrontational. (Outside of going for PR Enchant of course)

osuka - Cult, maybe CL?

I'm feeling pretty happy with my Raya vote rn

[Marky Mark]

Unsure, prob just town? Their read on me felt disingenuous but I'm obviously biased so not reading too much into it

This is like Enchant all over again. You are painting me as scummy to the rest of the plist but avoiding explicitly SRing me at this point in time (you do later, but only after me calling out your inconsistent position on Osuka)

[Marky Mark]

I also don't think they truly think I'm cult for forgetting the claim and clear.

Forgetting it would be one interpretation. Another would be that you either TMIed or forgot about some scum fakeclaim. Lots of potential reasons why scum could get their facts wrong about the scenario

[Marky Mark]

And yes, your case on major does involve an element of analysis, but is largely rehashing arguments that had already been made by other players. There was no real fire there

[Marky Mark]

Ultimately, you'd been playing around the edges D1 and I don't really believe that your heart was in SRing major (or at least not later on in the day). I may not have phrased this in the most articulate manner, but I know when something doesn't feel right

--pedit the pool of 3 you never mentioned in the orginal post but have now conveniently invented

[Marky Mark]

If I TMIed then I would be TMIing town. That's what I meant by think about it at the end of my post

In the post you highlighted earlier you have Osuka as potential CL
-Could be they legit are CL and you are cult member and you TMId
-Could be that Flea is town and you just wanted to push Osuka and had forgotten about their result
-Could be that Flea is cult and you forgot that they'd made up a result on Osuka
It's also possible town forgets tracker result here, but its far from the only explanation and you know it, so stop trying to paint it as such

--pedit that's BS ref the case on major and you know it. It's narrative because you are just listing arguments (ie narrating) that have been made by others. Perhaps I could've phrased this better, but we are areguing over semantics here, rather than the actions themselves

[Marky Mark]

How was I playing around the edges?

Oh idk, fence sitting on Enchant, which was one of the major things to happen D1. Avoiding having strong reads on most of the plist d1.

[Marky Mark]

Like just flicking through your iso you literally don't take much of a position on any slots d1 apart from SRs on T3 and major, at least one of which is town. You say at one point you are going to re-read Osuka but then curiously never comment on the slot d1 even when I spell out the scummy stuff they've been pulling

[Marky Mark]

1.) It's feasible that scum would TMI a partner when making a readslist. They could be trying to distance and forget that they are "cleared". You implying that scum would never put a teamate as an SR is simply not true
2.) I get that it's subjectve and its entirely possible that I could have phrased it more articulately, but your push in that post on majior felt pretty sterile (unlike your push on me here fwiw), like there was no real fire there but you were just trotting out lines

[Marky Mark]

Like I get that you're better than me at wording things and I think you're being quite sneaky in terms of trying to attack my wording rather than what I'm actually getting at to make me look bad here and trivialise my points

--pedit you barely mention Flea d1 (you say he's towny in one post early on) so yet again you are trying to bend the truth when in reality the only slots you commented on at any length are the ones you were trying to push - T3 and Major. Feels like someone was keeping their options open

--pedit 2 I'm literally looking at your ISO and your don't touch anyone other than T3/Major except in the briefest sense so wind your neck in and stop twisting evetnts

[Marky Mark]

1.) It's feasible that scum would TMI a partner when making a readslist. They could be trying to distance and forget that they are "cleared". You implying that scum would never put a teamate as an SR is simply not true
2.) I get that it's subjectve and its entirely possible that I could have phrased it more articulately, but your push in that post on majior felt pretty sterile (unlike your push on me here fwiw), like there was no real fire there but you were just trotting out lines

1) Scum would put a teammate as a scumread. Scum would not

accidentally

put a teammate as a scumread which is what a TMI is.
2) Well it was just a compromise. I still wanted T3. You and T3 are different because you're actually top scumreads. Think of it as Major was a scumlean and you two are scumreads. Which ones do you expect to have the most fire in a case

1.) No. The accidental part was that you forgot that in your scenario from your post prior, Osuka couldn't be CL due to Flea's result, so I could totally see you dropping his name in to distance here (eg he might be a cult member) and forgetting that it wasn't consistent with your previous post
2.) Convenient that the confirmed town slot was only a scumlean compared to your current SRs.

[Marky Mark]

Like I literally go from being town for you in 740 to scum in 742 to being your top scumread. You are pulling this progression out of your arse

[Marky Mark]

Although it makes sense why you avoided taking positions on your TRs D1 - it lets you turn on whatever slot you need to when you need to find a miselim from somewhere

--pedit Yeah I don't want to make things personal but it just feels like you are being slippery with me eg arguing over the semantics of what 'narrative' was. TRing slots is 100% part of the game and normal town behaviour. If anything, town often tend to hunt more via TRs and POE rather than just pushing slots, which has been largely your method here

[Marky Mark]

I clearly stated Flea was town in that post if I recall correctly. Why do I need to reiterate it. There was no significant pressure on Flea that made me feel like I had to step in and defend Flea or restate my townread.

To answer this specific point the game had moved on significantly and there had been that massive Flea/Major interaction, so I don't think it was a given that your early d1 TR would remain the same

[Marky Mark]

I'm gonna call that a night - people can make up their own mind on whether they think your heart was in the Major elim and whether they actually believe your bizarre progression on me here. Night all

[Marky Mark]

Just coming back to some of Raya's stuff from last night

I didn't avoid taking positions though. Reread my iso.

I have been town reading slots but it's not normal to full out town case people. I stated my town reads and that's enough.

I genuinely think the solve here is Raya + Osuka + 1 more (probs enchant). Both Raya and Osuka made an art form out of avoiding taking a position during this game (and no, a TR mentioned in passing v early d1 on Flea doesn't cut it when we all know such early reads are subject to change as the game starts to flesh out a bit more)

Look at Raya's push on me - she talks a good game about why I'm scum but is still voting T3 and not me. Why? probably because T3 is closer to elim right now.

[Marky Mark]

Like we are nearing the midpoint of D2 and Osuka still hasn't laid a vote

[Marky Mark]

Wait I 'm bad. I got osuka wagon confused with osuka srs.

I don't quite follow this either, or the original post

[Marky Mark]

There is absolutely 0 fire in T3s "hammer" reaction. If I thought someone had quickhammered me, I'd be mad, regardless of whether I thought they were town or not

[Marky Mark]

That doesn't necessarily mean T3 is scum (and Raya voting him while seeing to SR me more in terms of her posts point to this being a potential miselim) but it's certainly not a townflail IMO

[Marky Mark]

Flea going from "hammering" T3 to thinking they are town over an insipid reaction to fake hammer and also conveniently forgetting Osuka is bumping him up my SR list pretty rapidly

[Marky Mark]

Theres no fire in T3 at all, which is my big concern.

You've literally just said that you're willing to clear him

[Marky Mark]

Yeah I suppose there was a lack of chainsaw defences being made when his wagon looked like it might reach elim

[Marky Mark]

I suppose the Flea "hammer" on T3 and then subsequent rapid climbdown by Flea when wagon dissipated does lend a bit of weight to the Osuka (CL) + Flea (recruited tracker theory)

--pedit I don't follow how a rolestopper (whether recruited or not) could have a guilty

[Marky Mark]

Would be really good to hear from Osuka rn on recent developments and see where is vote is at

[Marky Mark]

So my head is at Raya (CL) + Osuka + 1 (maybe Enchant) as most likely but Osuka (CL) + 1 + Flea also has some equity rn

[Marky Mark]

I'm gonna have a sensible early night as work tomorrow etc etc but will give this all a mull over. Take care all

[Marky Mark]

I don't like to say I townslipped but.....

Hmmmm.jpg

[Marky Mark]

Hm, going back to cult making up reasons to scumread me

Utterly subjective

[Marky Mark]

I've actually been thinking about my solve a bit and I'm pretty sure what's happening here is I'm right about T3 being the cult leader, so cultist, Marky, is attacking me for made up reasons to take my attention away from T3 since I'm the one pushing T3 the hardest.

Yeah, I'm definitely not pushing you because you're scummy

[Marky Mark]

Well if we're going with Enchant is the recruited cult here then it makes a lot of sense that Enchant let T3 know it wasn't actually a hammer so he could react that way then they could come in and say actually it wasn't hammer. Timestamps are around 5m apart too.

But it was Flea with the "hammer" iirc

[Marky Mark]

And here's the distancing. It's fence sitting

Stating an item of play is not particularly AI is not fence sitting

[Marky Mark]

The more Raya posts, the more obvious it is that she is fixated on getting T3 elimed regardless of gamestate. She is clearly pushing me harder with her words but has pulled this new theory out of thin air that I am cult member defending CL!T3 to have a reason to keep trying to get the "easier" T3 lim even though it is utterly inconsistent with her posting

just lim this

[Marky Mark]

Umlaut/Raya/Dwlee?

Why Umlaut (seems town af) and why not Enchant?

[Marky Mark]

The more Raya posts, the more obvious it is that she is fixated on getting T3 elimed regardless of gamestate. She is clearly pushing me harder with her words but has pulled this new theory out of thin air that I am cult member defending CL!T3 to have a reason to keep trying to get the "easier" T3 lim even though it is utterly inconsistent with her posting

just lim this

Why is fixating on a T3 elim cult behavior? Fixating on eliminating one player you most think is cult leader is exactly what town should be doing here, whereas cult are just as happy to elim pretty much anyone

but

one player.

Because Raya's words and posting implies that she views more likely to be scum than T3, but she continues to vote for and look for a T3 elim. She's pulled this story out of nowhere that its somehow because I'm a cult member defending CL!T3 but only when the issue was brought up, not before

[Marky Mark]

Stands to reason its because she's looking for whatever elim she thinks has a decent chance of going through today

[Marky Mark]

How was that subjective?

Because its based on an asumption of Osuka's alignment and whether the wagon is or isnt terrible

[Marky Mark]

You haven't made a single point for why I'm scum because I already explained myself and you even said my explanation made sense. Then you started scumreading me for all the same reasons again

Yet again you completely twist my words out of shape. You explained your reasoning for

some

actions that I queried and that reasoning was logically coherent. That doesn't mean that I think

all

your actions are reasonable - just that particular subset.

[Marky Mark]

You literally gave a point for T3 scum followed by "that doesn't necessarily make T3 scum though"

Post 809. Just read it. I say that T3's reaction is not a townflail. The implication was that it was NAI - it was never a point for T3 scum. I am sick to the teeth of you twisting my words to undermine me as a player and discredit my push on you.

[Marky Mark]

Because it makes perfect sense! You pushing me so hard for no reason makes me just feel more like I'm right

Except for literally all the reasons that I've just given. Like you are literally trvialising/sidelining everything I post today and its just BS. People can make their own minds up

[Marky Mark]

I'm going to bed. Catch you all later.

[Marky Mark]

Hey all, sorry I'm not really feeling this tonight. Was playing cricket after work today and just had a pretty rubbish game and am also knackered.

[Marky Mark]

I've seen that Raya has responded to me and I'll set the record straight tomorrow because tbqh I can't be bothered to go through each individual point rn and prove her wrong. She is very good at pretending to look reasonable while subtly twisting my words to make it look like my points against her are wrong. Again, a case of limited fire. If her actions matched her words I would be expecting there to be a lot more oomph behind her words but I'm not sure she even believes her own solve

[Marky Mark]

All that being said, I was looking over the VC. If she was cult minion at E-1 then I reckon she'd have been hammered by an another cult person if there are 3 in the cult. If she's CL and we assume cult aren't bussing then the rest of the cult have to lie within:

Dwlee
Flea
Umlaut

And like idk I could maybe see Dwlee being a thing and Flea being recruited last night, but that would mean I was completely wrong about Osuka and he's just inno all along

[Marky Mark]

Hmm perhaps so. I'm going to bed but need to have a proper think about this

[Marky Mark]

If the cult is Raya (CL)/Osuka/+1 then Osuka has balls of steel voting Raya to E-1 before unvoting

[Marky Mark]

So maybe that's not the solve. Raya and Osuka both scummy but maybe not scum together

[Marky Mark]

But if raya not CL then lack of hammer makes no sense unless 3 of 4 on wagon were cult (ie Osuka/T3/Enchant) from my POV

[Marky Mark]

But then that would make no sense with Osuka as CL, so the solve would have to have T3 as CL, who seemed to be Raya's miselim target

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE:

I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically

[Marky Mark]

Fwiw, Dwlee's recent responses to Flea are town++

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE:

I'm stumped rn, not gona lie. I reckon we ought to be able to work out a fair bit from the Raya wagon tho if we think through it logically

i agree and i think i can trust you to a degree

what are you thinking

I honestly reckon at this point its worth trying to come up with the various scenarios, and then making an educated guess based on what is most likely

Scenario A: Raya is CL
-If we assume that Cult minions don't bus then cult minions must lie outside wagon ie within Flea/Umlaut/Dwlee
-So at least one of Umlaut or Dwlee would have to have been an original minion in this scenario
-Flea makes sense as a recruit target if cult were able to spot the crumbs, but Umlaut/Dwlee have both felt towny

Scenario B: Raya is not CL and cult has 3 members
-Optimum play here for the cult would be to hammer Raya as even if she is cult minion she can be replaced
-So lack of hammer would imply that all cult were already on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer, so cult from everyone else's POV would like within me/T3/Enchant/Osuka
-BUT enchant can't be CL and Osuka can't be CL in this particular scenario as in this scenario cult recruited last night and Flea isn't culted.
-So this scenario only makes sense from your point of view if CL is me or T3
-Also, it would be likely that Raya is town and not cult at all, as if she was minion she could self-hammer

Scenario C: Raya is not CL and cult has 2 members
-Tbqh I'd not really considered that the cult might only have 2 due to me being protected last night, mainly because that only works if the cult targeted me over Enchant, a claimed PR
-In this scenario, lack of hammer implies that either:
--Raya is minion and cult didn't want her to get hammered. This would probably (but not certainly) mean the other cult would be off-wagon
--Raya is town and both cult were on the wagon and thus couldn't hammer ie 2 of me/Osuka/T3/Enchant are cult

[Marky Mark]

That's all off the top of my head and very possible that I've overlooked something so please chip in ideas

[Marky Mark]

I know I'm town, but hopefully from other people's POVs they can see that the chances of the cult targetting me vs a claimed PR (Enchant) or a crumbed PR (Flea) are pretty low. I also think submitting no action makes no sense, so I am going to say that scenario C seems unlikely.

So fmpov it comes down to scenario A with a solve of Raya(CL)/{Dwlee or Umlaut}/Flea or scenario B with a solve of T3(CL)/Osuka/Enchant

[Marky Mark]

I'm gonna hold off voting while we talk things through, given that the cult could quickhammer if I get it wrong (eg if I voted T3)

[Marky Mark]

I'm not so worried about the quickhammer with Raya as we've already been there, but still good to be careful

[Marky Mark]

So, following the rush of responses to the above, I guess I'd be keen to hear other slots' take on the above scenarios wrt which seems most likely or whether I'm missing something here

[Marky Mark]

I've been out for drinks with mates tonight and honestly cba to read up right now. I'll have a look in the morning

[Marky Mark]

Hey, just catching up now. It's been a fairly hectic couple of days IRL sorry

[Marky Mark]

Seems I made you back down. Now you need to find someone else to push. Or we could just go for your cult leader, T3

You "made me back down"? How big is your ego lol.

[Marky Mark]

You could be CL who converted tracker and stoled his claim.
Osuka could do nothing. While it's unlikely, i see ways where cult do it.

Like how would cult know earlyish d1 what the town PR was for cult!flea to fakecrumb tracker in this scenario

[Marky Mark]

Enchant did not hammer T3. It might be smart of cult to not recruit enchant, because then if we don't hit cult leader today it's practically a free miselim for them.

I don't think T3 was ever at E-1? There was some confusion over how many votes were needed to hammer, which led to people thinking he was at one point when he was on 3 votes

[Marky Mark]

i think the odds of raya being CL are slim, because the odds of 1[umlaut, dwlee] + flea is unlikely. scenario 2 makes the most sense, but i cant imagine either you or t3 being cl.

i'm confused

What direction are you leaning in, in terms of most likely?

I want to hear more from Umlaut to try and get a better sort on him, as scenario A (Raya CL) requires either him or Dwlee to be OG cult, and dwlee has been ++town today, especially over the last few pages.

[Marky Mark]

i think the odds of raya being CL are slim, because the odds of 1[umlaut, dwlee] + flea is unlikely. scenario 2 makes the most sense, but i cant imagine either you or t3 being cl.

Thinking this through, if the cult actually was T3(CL)/Osuka/Enchant then I think Osuka would push either me or Raya hard here, as there is a very real risk of losing his CL.

[Marky Mark]

And he isn't doing that, so I'm leaning towards Scenario A with a potential solve of Raya/Umlaut/Flea. I thought Umlaut was v towny d1, but none of these scenarios make loads of sense, so at least some of my reads must be wrong

[Marky Mark]

I'm not gonna revisit those previous Raya points from a couple of days ago rn as I just can't be bothered to deal with her arrogance atm and people can make their own minds up, but she can re-raise them if she wants to

[Marky Mark]

Enchant did not hammer T3. It might be smart of cult to not recruit enchant, because then if we don't hit cult leader today it's practically a free miselim for them.

I don't think T3 was ever at E-1? There was some confusion over how many votes were needed to hammer, which led to people thinking he was at one point when he was on 3 votes

He was. I even pointed it out.

Oh wait yeah, sorry I was thinking of even earlier d2 when he was wrongly explained as being at E-1 (by Umlaut IIRC). There was also the fammer saga

[Marky Mark]

And yeah, what Dwlee said

[Marky Mark]

wtf town

Now here's the fire that I expected to see after the fake hammer

[Marky Mark]

Of course, it's a bit meaningless now given that the lack of reaction to the fammer had been pointed out in the thread

[Marky Mark]

Well why else did you change your mind?

I'm still uncertain about the scenario where you are CL as despite you screaming scum, it would require either Umlaut/Dwlee to have been OG cult and they were both towny d1

[Marky Mark]

Because if Raya is CL then cult are unlikely to bus her, given the importance of the CL

Hence, the liklihood would be that the rest of the cult lies in the 3 slots that didn't vote her when her wagon reached E-1 - You, Umlaut and Flea

Due to Flea's tracker crumbs d1, it seems unlikely that they were originally cult, regardless of whether they got recruited or not

So, the most plausible solve with CL!Raya involves either you or Umlaut being her original minion

[Marky Mark]

Evening all

[Marky Mark]

Tbh I've kinda stuck atm as Raya is screaming scum but the other parts of the most likely solve that works for her being CL seem weird (ie 2 of Umlaut/Dwlee/Flea being cult). It also makes me feel uneasy that Enchant/Osuka are on the Wagon, or have been on the wagon at some point. Like if T3 is CL here then I am probably literally on the Raya wagon with the entire scumteam

The problem with the T3 solve tho is that I'm pretty reluctant to vote with Raya when she is bleeding the red letters of her role PM in every post she writes

[Marky Mark]

I do think tho that Dwlee is pretty town and I don't buy the Flea push on him

[Marky Mark]

So why is Flea pushing him? Flea!scum would lend wait to Raya!CL being a natural fit as he avoided that wagon today

[Marky Mark]

Sorry, lend *weight lol. I'm tired

[Marky Mark]

Flea, where do you think CL is, if not Dwlee?

[Marky Mark]

Lolwut

[Marky Mark]

Flea currently trying to push two of the biggest TRs in the game

[Marky Mark]

Dare I ask - why Umlaut?

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: Raya

I was leaning this way anyways, but Flea's recent scumminess puts Raya's equity as CL through the roof

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: Raya

I was leaning this way anyways, but Flea's recent scumminess puts Raya's equity as CL through the roof

so are you saying enchant isn’t culted?

I mean possibly. Or it might just be that T3 is CL here and I'm confbiasing hard on Rayna

[Marky Mark]

I just think Flea's SRs on Dwlee/Umlaut are at best vanity wagons and at worst avoidance of today's main wagons and what I don't quite understand but want to is why

[Marky Mark]

What I do reckon tho, is that if Flea IS scum here, it is more likely to be in a scumteam with Raya than T3

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE:
I spent a fair bit of last night with this game going round in circles in my head. Unvote for now to prevent quickhammers while I'm out and about at work and to give me time to think it all through

[Marky Mark]

Flea - I'm the tracker, unless you want to WIFOM yourself into oblivion and I'm cult with Osuka, I'm clear and so is Osuka.

Hmmm. Maybe I was too quick to connect scum!Flea to mean CL!Raya

[Marky Mark]

Flea's recent posting feels miles off, but he is logically unlikely to be CL due to claim crumbs D1. He has, however, defended Osuka, as has T3 consistently

[Marky Mark]

And what's REALLY weird is that Flea avoids commiting to either Raya or T3 wagon and instead when asked for SRs chooses two other random slots that look in no danger of being limmed

[Marky Mark]

But if Flea has actually been culted here (notice how confident he was in his reads that Enchant had been culted last night) and he is avoiding T3/Raya wagons then why? If his CL was on one then he'd surely back the other, so maybe (borderline tinfoil) neither wagon is CL (and as both T3 and Raya avoided the self hammer maybe both are town too) and that is why he is avoiding commiting to a position that will implicate him if he thinks the wagons will go through anyway

[Marky Mark]

Which would mean like idk maybe Osuka is CL here, spotted Flea crumb and recruited him to "clear him" and then there is another minion somewhere in the rest of the plist

[Marky Mark]

Disclaimer: I have had a few beers with the football tonight, so now would be a great time to shout me down if you think I'm completely losing the plot and this is pure tinfoil

[Marky Mark]

Keen to see what others think, with a view to potentially voting Osuka tomorrow if people think that there is something in this

[Marky Mark]

Problem is like even cult!flea could just be true claiming a result

This. Feels like Flea has been spewing scum over the last few pages, but it doesn't buy us loads to elim them directly, and gives us one fewer shot to hit CL

[Marky Mark]

• I'm not cult (really)
  
• Enchant and Flea aren't OG cult
  
• I just don't believe Osuka is cult who didn't use their action last night, so Osuka is innocent ior Flea was recruited (and I don't think Flea was recruited)
  
• That leaves {you, Mark, Raya} as possibilities once T3 is flipped
  
• ...actually I
  suppose
  I should consider the possibility where T3 and Raya are cross-busing too? Do you think that's more likely than Mark being scum?

The thing is, I'm starting to think that its not that unfeasible that Flea is recruited, based on Flea's recent play

[Marky Mark]

Flea currently trying to push two of the biggest TRs in the game

Am I seriously one of the biggest TRs in the game and, if so, how did that happen, because honestly my play (if you can even call it that) has been garbage so far.

Genuinely yes, more so from D1 than today. A fair bit of this is tone, but I've also felt on a similar page frequently throughout the game, with the obvious difference being that I think Raya has more scum equity than T3

[Marky Mark]

Combination of Osuka's individual scuminess and Flea's refusal to touch the Raya or T3 wagons on cast much judgement on them is pushing me towards a Osuka/Flea/+1 solve rn

[Marky Mark]

BUT this game is constantly going round in circles in my head due to cult-induced WIFOM, so I am going to sleep on it before putting a vote where my mouth is. Night all, take care