Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]


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Post Post #3525 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:06 pm

Post by Enchant »

In post 3500, Shirou wrote:@Ceph, Meg

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

Ceph investigates me (if he's a cop)
Meg investigates NQ (if they're a cop)

Ceph protects Meg (if he's doctor)
Meg protects Ceph (if they're a doctor)

Would you agree to that?

Because if you don't, even if it's a bit suboptimal I may be forced to concede on me being eliminated today and just self-vote to make both of you listen to a mech plan upon my flip. I think that would still be better than not coordinating properly as we're right now (for example checking NQ is kinda useless if we eliminate me).

Do like this.
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Post Post #3526 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:29 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

aite y'all, here's the post I had sitting around drafted for a day+ or so, for posteriority's sake. Again, looking through this it made me
less
confident in scum morph, but I figure I still want to highlight some things that stand out to me and share my thought process, cause that's basically how mafia is meant to be played. This is largely just a summary of morph/redtea associatives, I want (wanted?) to do a Pt 2 on the fua fake guilty and how morph feels
really fucking invested
in making us all think fua is obv/conf town, but I'm unsure if that's useful yet at this stage or even if I feel all that strongly about it anymore

Morph on redtea

In post 392, morph the cat wrote:
In post 375, fua wrote:Townlean:
Redtea
Spoiler: Entire Redtea ISO
In post 248, redtea wrote:what's up everyone what IS the tea rn
In post 330, redtea wrote:#328 made me ugly laugh
In post 331, redtea wrote:you people sl'd fua for a little airheadedness in their opening posts?
might as well tie *me* to the stake right now then

really though what I see from their iso is that they're going for more of a conversationalist playstyle rather than an essayist one.
In post 332, redtea wrote:
In post 258, Tejate Raichu wrote:
In post 248, redtea wrote:what's up everyone what IS the tea rn
Also sorry for not welcoming, your reply kinda slipped my mind once it turned to the next page. The tea is not exactly what I'd call piping hot right now.
it's almost disappointing but yn the good and respectful vibes make up for it

nyway I only read what was between my first post and my second, I'll read the first 10 pages in the morning
peace~~


Can you explain what in the above ISO led you to putting them in this tier, amongst your towniest reads (given the hydras are there just by default and not due to an actual read of your own as per your admission)
This post is the first real substantive mention of redtea, and it's not an unusual angle to take to distance with a partner as scum. ask another player about why they're (dubiously) TRing your partner, but without proactively casing or pushing them yourself - it gives an impression like you're genuinely sorting that person, but without actually committing to a trajectory on it.
In post 788, morph the cat wrote:I'm kinda liking Ceph's push on us. Though I kinda hate the idea of actually having a townread there so early.

We're thinking about nuking red tea.
Next we see a proclaimed scumread on redtea, but without much of an actual call to action to other players nor a vote. I know at one point morph said they don't especially believe in the value of voting, and that their vote is usually a true vote to kill, but this kinda situation is basically exactly why I have the opposite opinion, just saying you want to "nuke" redtea is ultimately not a big commitment if there's no functional redtea wagon and in the meantime other players are exploring other wagons and shopping around alternatives. Words are cheap.
In post 985, morph the cat wrote:
In post 984, redtea wrote:I'll say that I didn't expect my one (1) game with fua to be helpful but page 16 is telling me everyone would benefit from skimming one of their town games if one is studying-inclined
How are you leaning re fua on page 16? and which town game are you referencing?
Here's the first real interaction between the two. This is a softball question, just asking for a read and a link to a past game. not a hard question for scum!redtea to deal with, but can look like a ~progression~ on redtea.
In post 1040, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1017, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 875, catboi wrote:Not Voting (6): imaginality, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse, Shirou
hot take, not voting makes people harder to solve and gives less content to read them off of than the spectrum of activity/inactivity

I'd like everyone not voting to explain in their next post if they'd be willing to vote redtea and why or why not
I am not of the voteliness is next to godliness school of mafia thought. And I've rubbed off on Neuterhalf. I don't vote until I want to see a single specific player eliminated. I may change my mind, and I may compromise late in a game day.

Our bottom tiers look like this right now:

{implosion, imaginality, numbers}
{NSG, redtea}

redtea's posts have been low-content for the most part and when he answers questions the answers don't really satisfy. For instance, he made a statement about fua's alignment being easily discerned with some meta reference, but nothing about that post indicated his read of fua, which gives him tons of wiggle room when someone (quite possibly me) comes back with an opinion.

NSG's initial content was unimpressive and low quantity though pleasant. I'm keeping an open mind on the slot, but that's where she currently sits wrt to everyone who's posted more content.
Again, redtea morph's most confident scumread, yet no vote. Here's the VC at the time of this post:
In post 1050, catboi wrote:
Vote Count 1.06

Tejate Raichu (2):
northsidegal, fua
northsidegal (2):
implosion, Cephrir
implosion (1):
Amazonian Legends
Cephrir (1):
numberQ
redtea (1):
GuiltyLion


Not Voting (6):
imaginality, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse, Shirou


With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.



Deadline for Day 1 is January 22 at 2:00 PM EST.


Deadline Timer:
(expired on 2022-01-22 15:00:00)
In post 1058, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1047, redtea wrote:@morph is this about me not responding to your question about my current fua read you posited *checks watch* 8 hours ago
You posted again a few hours after I asked the question without answering it. That's is of more concern to me than how many hours since I asked.

And you still haven't answered it.
Why is scum!redtea hostile to a town!morph here? Answering a question about a read is ultimately not that hard, so why does redtea pick a fight with a slot that has
said
they scumread redtea and would be willing to vote there? I generally think if this was S-T there'd be more appeasement here, I suspect instead they wanted to play up more antagonism between the two to try to make them look unpartnered.

Morph does eventually move into voting redtea, in the following posts - , , . The thing I want to highlight here is that at this point in time, AL has now indicated (and then) voted redtea and in these posts morph is trying to feel out how strongly AL really feels about that read. Knowing that AL is town, and probably the most threatening player individually to morph, I'm slightly less inclined to townread the progression onto the redtea vote here as I can imagine scum!morph may be more interested in pocketing AL for the time being than keeping a deadweight partner alive.
In post 1460, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1457, redtea wrote:might've missed it bc i was skimming but kinda bummed no one responded to my questions in #1209. Like I didn't ask them just to ask, I asked because if someone had something to say it would be helpful to me.

a little old now but
In post 1058, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1047, redtea wrote:@morph is this about me not responding to your question about my current fua read you posited *checks watch* 8 hours ago
You posted again a few hours after I asked the question without answering it. That's is of more concern to me than how many hours since I asked.
I just assumed you would've read and held off on a follow-up accordingly, even if that @ wasn't to you
When would be a suitable amount of time to expect an answer?
Again, this is like the main thing morph has on redtea, "you didn't answer my question!". There's not a sense of critically evaluating what content redtea
has
given, it feels like a procedural reason to scumread redtea, which I think is easier to fake as scum (when you know the other slot is scum) rather than a deeper level explanation of why redtea's posting does not indicate town mindset.

I need to call out , because here morph is pressuring imaginality, at the time he was the main CW to redtea. I can't genuinely put a ton of scumpoints into this particular angle because I very much did the same thing at the time, and imaginality's posts were a bit all over the place, but it is easy to consider
if morph is scum
that these posts serve an agenda of directing town attention away from redtea.
In post 1733, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1732, Cephrir wrote:*actively cheerleads the day ending*
So what you're telling me is I can make ceph's day, annoy redtea, AND summon the cute twinky femcatboy mod all at once~?
The thing that stands out to me with this post (setting up to hammer imaginality) is the desire to "annoy redtea". Why is that a goal, to "annoy" them? Didn't morph suspect redtea of being scum? how does "annoying" them help sort them or pressure them?

, are again, fairly tepid shade on redtea. Again there's no vote and these aren't things that force other players to consider voting redtea, it's just setting up a history of a weak scumread on the slot.
In post 2266, morph the cat wrote:
In post 2265, Tejate Raichu wrote:That's the thing, I feel like that already happened. Did you see how discussion of redtea at all just dropped? It seemed like no one was keen to talk about them today early on, despite them being the most major wagon from yesterday. No, we jumped right into scum!Tejate hour without even a single mention of the scummiest inactive slot. IIRC GuiltyLion was one of the first people to actually pull discussion back there.
The counterpoint to this is that redtea so far has done nothing much that provokes a big rethink, and just coming into today with a vote there doesn't advance much knowledge. I wanted to push and poke at other slots I'm not townreading, which I've been able to do to some extent.

Not as much as I'd like. The 1v1 back and forth walls are really offputting to me. I never am going to love that style of play, but this game it's actively soul-draining.

----------

I kinda like Meg's voiced concern about rushing to an elim, even though I don't think it's likely to happen in this player list.
This post kinda speaks for itself, morph doesn't want to vote redtea because it "doesn't advance much knowledge". What knowledge was morph advancing elsewhere instead, and how did that help town to find any scum?
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #3527 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:34 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

I'll give
intent to hammer
morph but let them have some time to express any last reads or response to anything, so it's not imminent.

One thing I want to make very clear - if morph flips scum and I die tonight,
please do not locktown fua
. The
best
point in fua's favor as to why they are town is no kill on N1, but this is not totally out of the ballpark of an intentional scum gambit. And I do think if morph flips scum, we need to revisit and discuss fua's fake guilty on them, because all that fake guilty ultimately accomplished was making fua-morph look disassociated and giving morph an opportunity to post a bunch of stuff that makes them appear town. And since the fake guilty, almost every comment morph has made about fua has been to assert how obviously town they are. I smell a very serious potential agenda in that if morph flips scum, beyond your normal "sucking up to a town slot"
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #3528 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:36 pm

Post by morph the cat »

We're at E-1, I think.

neuterhalf is not feeling great, but something about Enchant's recent(?) play gives him a Sybil normal game vibe, and he's wondering if Shirou/Enchant makes sense.

I still believe that fua and ceph are never-touch town.

I think tejate and NQ are town

Megs is dependent on Shirou. Nothing in this game clears GL.

And we have no mech reason to think enchant is town afaik, and Cabd's drug-enhanced gut screaming there's an issue with him.

Good luck, town!

And thanks for releasing us from this quagmire of a game.
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Post Post #3529 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:41 pm

Post by morph the cat »

Actually, maybe NQ's slow activity fade should be a concern. I saw the post about working insane hours, but, the fade has been going on longer than that.
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Post Post #3530 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:48 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

hmmmphh blah that doesn't feel like a particularly scummy last words post?? it's a little weird their only comment on me is "nothing clears him".

I'm gonna go out grocery shopping and then to a party in a bit so everyone else has a chance to say any last words, I'll hammer when I get home tonight in about 7-8 hours or so most likely
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #3531 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:48 pm

Post by morph the cat »

I think we're done.

Much as we'd like to spite-hammer and get this over with, we're not going to deprive town of that last fragment of data.

So, whenever.
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Post Post #3532 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:54 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 3530, GuiltyLion wrote:it's a little weird their only comment on me is "nothing clears him".
We've said plenty about you.

Your efforting on your read of us is mollifying but you're as much of a who-knows to town as we are from a mech perspective. We're probably more readable than you, particularly in this game, but there's a lot of read-fail going on.

My gut says that if Shirou is scum, you probably aren't but there's nothing that really screams to me that you can't be S-S. It's just gut.
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Post Post #3533 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:57 pm

Post by Cephrir »

In post 3525, Enchant wrote:
In post 3500, Shirou wrote:@Ceph, Meg

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

Ceph investigates me (if he's a cop)
Meg investigates NQ (if they're a cop)

Ceph protects Meg (if he's doctor)
Meg protects Ceph (if they're a doctor)

Would you agree to that?

Because if you don't, even if it's a bit suboptimal I may be forced to concede on me being eliminated today and just self-vote to make both of you listen to a mech plan upon my flip. I think that would still be better than not coordinating properly as we're right now (for example checking NQ is kinda useless if we eliminate me).

Do like this.
Ok.
"I would prefer not to." --Herman Melville,
Bartleby the Scrivener
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Post Post #3534 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:03 pm

Post by morph the cat »

After we flip, give some thought to following all that.

I'm headed to the store too. If I galaxy-brain and the thread is still open, I'll splat it into a post.
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Post Post #3535 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:19 pm

Post by MegAzumarill »

In post 3533, Cephrir wrote:
In post 3525, Enchant wrote:
In post 3500, Shirou wrote:@Ceph, Meg

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

Ceph investigates me (if he's a cop)
Meg investigates NQ (if they're a cop)

Ceph protects Meg (if he's doctor)
Meg protects Ceph (if they're a doctor)

Would you agree to that?

Because if you don't, even if it's a bit suboptimal I may be forced to concede on me being eliminated today and just self-vote to make both of you listen to a mech plan upon my flip. I think that would still be better than not coordinating properly as we're right now (for example checking NQ is kinda useless if we eliminate me).

Do like this.
Ok.
*thumbs up*
Imprefection is the spice of life.
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Post Post #3536 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 5:07 pm

Post by morph the cat »

I just want to point out a few things in GL's posts over the last couple of calendar days.
In post 3439, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 3436, MegAzumarill wrote:Morph is looking townier here then before but then why the style change?
how is morph looking townie? All they've done is tried to insist fua is mechanically conftown (when they're not), and then snarked at me for daring to re-evaluate on Shirou/nQ, all the while throwing up a bunch of AtE about how demoralized they are and how they'll laugh at town from the dead thread. It feels very much like agenda driven play, regardless of fua's alignment, I don't see any indicators of town trying to solve in what they're doing
We have not called fua mechanically conftown, I don't think. He's a GODTIER TOWNREAD. Which is something else altogether. We are not mech heavy players and this setup does not play to our strengths but, townread/POE is my bread and butter, and while Cabd's playstyle and method of forming reads is different from mine reads trump mech for both of us 99% of the time.

In post 3511, GuiltyLion wrote:so I got home last night and started diving into morph's ISO with the hopes of detailing out a convincing scum case, and honestly it just made me more confused because I don't think they're really as scummy in ISO as I had been thinking. As I was trying to detail my points out it didn't feel like something I super genuinely/earnestly thought was strongly indicative.

I still think the gamestate largely points to them scum, but their associatives with redtea are only loosely incriminating at best. in that it's how smart scum would distance with a partner and make a show about how they don't TR them while not directly pushing very often to get them limmed. but at the same time it's not hard for me to imagine it being town. and when I got to the D2 fake guilty interaction with fua, it's quite smooth fakery if it was a reaction to a town player claiming a guilty on them.

I'll still highlight the stuff I've been looking at in a little bit so that my ISO dive isn't totally wasted, but I'm not gonna pretend like this is better material than it is. basically if morph is scum here, it's a good performance, because I am not walking away from this exercise feeling better about the read
The above feels like hedging and distancing. He doesn't think our ISO is as scummy as he originally thought but he's still going to write it all up. He's already positioning for our townflip and I imagine will be oh so...what was it? egg on face? I think he was talking about shirou when he used that comment earlier.

Spoiler: huge wall of our posts
In post 3526, GuiltyLion wrote:aite y'all, here's the post I had sitting around drafted for a day+ or so, for posteriority's sake. Again, looking through this it made me
less
confident in scum morph, but I figure I still want to highlight some things that stand out to me and share my thought process, cause that's basically how mafia is meant to be played. This is largely just a summary of morph/redtea associatives, I want (wanted?) to do a Pt 2 on the fua fake guilty and how morph feels
really fucking invested
in making us all think fua is obv/conf town, but I'm unsure if that's useful yet at this stage or even if I feel all that strongly about it anymore

Morph on redtea

In post 392, morph the cat wrote:
In post 375, fua wrote:Townlean:
Redtea
Spoiler: Entire Redtea ISO
In post 248, redtea wrote:what's up everyone what IS the tea rn
In post 330, redtea wrote:#328 made me ugly laugh
In post 331, redtea wrote:you people sl'd fua for a little airheadedness in their opening posts?
might as well tie *me* to the stake right now then

really though what I see from their iso is that they're going for more of a conversationalist playstyle rather than an essayist one.
In post 332, redtea wrote:
In post 258, Tejate Raichu wrote:
In post 248, redtea wrote:what's up everyone what IS the tea rn
Also sorry for not welcoming, your reply kinda slipped my mind once it turned to the next page. The tea is not exactly what I'd call piping hot right now.
it's almost disappointing but yn the good and respectful vibes make up for it

nyway I only read what was between my first post and my second, I'll read the first 10 pages in the morning
peace~~


Can you explain what in the above ISO led you to putting them in this tier, amongst your towniest reads (given the hydras are there just by default and not due to an actual read of your own as per your admission)
This post is the first real substantive mention of redtea, and it's not an unusual angle to take to distance with a partner as scum. ask another player about why they're (dubiously) TRing your partner, but without proactively casing or pushing them yourself - it gives an impression like you're genuinely sorting that person, but without actually committing to a trajectory on it.
In post 788, morph the cat wrote:I'm kinda liking Ceph's push on us. Though I kinda hate the idea of actually having a townread there so early.

We're thinking about nuking red tea.
Next we see a proclaimed scumread on redtea, but without much of an actual call to action to other players nor a vote. I know at one point morph said they don't especially believe in the value of voting, and that their vote is usually a true vote to kill, but this kinda situation is basically exactly why I have the opposite opinion, just saying you want to "nuke" redtea is ultimately not a big commitment if there's no functional redtea wagon and in the meantime other players are exploring other wagons and shopping around alternatives. Words are cheap.
In post 985, morph the cat wrote:
In post 984, redtea wrote:I'll say that I didn't expect my one (1) game with fua to be helpful but page 16 is telling me everyone would benefit from skimming one of their town games if one is studying-inclined
How are you leaning re fua on page 16? and which town game are you referencing?
Here's the first real interaction between the two. This is a softball question, just asking for a read and a link to a past game. not a hard question for scum!redtea to deal with, but can look like a ~progression~ on redtea.
In post 1040, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1017, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 875, catboi wrote:Not Voting (6): imaginality, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse, Shirou
hot take, not voting makes people harder to solve and gives less content to read them off of than the spectrum of activity/inactivity

I'd like everyone not voting to explain in their next post if they'd be willing to vote redtea and why or why not
I am not of the voteliness is next to godliness school of mafia thought. And I've rubbed off on Neuterhalf. I don't vote until I want to see a single specific player eliminated. I may change my mind, and I may compromise late in a game day.

Our bottom tiers look like this right now:

{implosion, imaginality, numbers}
{NSG, redtea}

redtea's posts have been low-content for the most part and when he answers questions the answers don't really satisfy. For instance, he made a statement about fua's alignment being easily discerned with some meta reference, but nothing about that post indicated his read of fua, which gives him tons of wiggle room when someone (quite possibly me) comes back with an opinion.

NSG's initial content was unimpressive and low quantity though pleasant. I'm keeping an open mind on the slot, but that's where she currently sits wrt to everyone who's posted more content.
Again, redtea morph's most confident scumread, yet no vote. Here's the VC at the time of this post:
In post 1050, catboi wrote:
Vote Count 1.06

Tejate Raichu (2):
northsidegal, fua
northsidegal (2):
implosion, Cephrir
implosion (1):
Amazonian Legends
Cephrir (1):
numberQ
redtea (1):
GuiltyLion


Not Voting (6):
imaginality, morph the cat, redtea, Tejate Raichu, Ydrasse, Shirou


With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.



Deadline for Day 1 is January 22 at 2:00 PM EST.


Deadline Timer:
(expired on 2022-01-22 15:00:00)
In post 1058, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1047, redtea wrote:@morph is this about me not responding to your question about my current fua read you posited *checks watch* 8 hours ago
You posted again a few hours after I asked the question without answering it. That's is of more concern to me than how many hours since I asked.

And you still haven't answered it.
Why is scum!redtea hostile to a town!morph here? Answering a question about a read is ultimately not that hard, so why does redtea pick a fight with a slot that has
said
they scumread redtea and would be willing to vote there? I generally think if this was S-T there'd be more appeasement here, I suspect instead they wanted to play up more antagonism between the two to try to make them look unpartnered.

Morph does eventually move into voting redtea, in the following posts - , , . The thing I want to highlight here is that at this point in time, AL has now indicated (and then) voted redtea and in these posts morph is trying to feel out how strongly AL really feels about that read. Knowing that AL is town, and probably the most threatening player individually to morph, I'm slightly less inclined to townread the progression onto the redtea vote here as I can imagine scum!morph may be more interested in pocketing AL for the time being than keeping a deadweight partner alive.
In post 1460, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1457, redtea wrote:might've missed it bc i was skimming but kinda bummed no one responded to my questions in #1209. Like I didn't ask them just to ask, I asked because if someone had something to say it would be helpful to me.

a little old now but
In post 1058, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1047, redtea wrote:@morph is this about me not responding to your question about my current fua read you posited *checks watch* 8 hours ago
You posted again a few hours after I asked the question without answering it. That's is of more concern to me than how many hours since I asked.
I just assumed you would've read and held off on a follow-up accordingly, even if that @ wasn't to you
When would be a suitable amount of time to expect an answer?
Again, this is like the main thing morph has on redtea, "you didn't answer my question!". There's not a sense of critically evaluating what content redtea
has
given, it feels like a procedural reason to scumread redtea, which I think is easier to fake as scum (when you know the other slot is scum) rather than a deeper level explanation of why redtea's posting does not indicate town mindset.

I need to call out , because here morph is pressuring imaginality, at the time he was the main CW to redtea. I can't genuinely put a ton of scumpoints into this particular angle because I very much did the same thing at the time, and imaginality's posts were a bit all over the place, but it is easy to consider
if morph is scum
that these posts serve an agenda of directing town attention away from redtea.
In post 1733, morph the cat wrote:
In post 1732, Cephrir wrote:*actively cheerleads the day ending*
So what you're telling me is I can make ceph's day, annoy redtea, AND summon the cute twinky femcatboy mod all at once~?
The thing that stands out to me with this post (setting up to hammer imaginality) is the desire to "annoy redtea". Why is that a goal, to "annoy" them? Didn't morph suspect redtea of being scum? how does "annoying" them help sort them or pressure them?

, are again, fairly tepid shade on redtea. Again there's no vote and these aren't things that force other players to consider voting redtea, it's just setting up a history of a weak scumread on the slot.
In post 2266, morph the cat wrote:
In post 2265, Tejate Raichu wrote:That's the thing, I feel like that already happened. Did you see how discussion of redtea at all just dropped? It seemed like no one was keen to talk about them today early on, despite them being the most major wagon from yesterday. No, we jumped right into scum!Tejate hour without even a single mention of the scummiest inactive slot. IIRC GuiltyLion was one of the first people to actually pull discussion back there.
The counterpoint to this is that redtea so far has done nothing much that provokes a big rethink, and just coming into today with a vote there doesn't advance much knowledge. I wanted to push and poke at other slots I'm not townreading, which I've been able to do to some extent.

Not as much as I'd like. The 1v1 back and forth walls are really offputting to me. I never am going to love that style of play, but this game it's actively soul-draining.

----------

I kinda like Meg's voiced concern about rushing to an elim, even though I don't think it's likely to happen in this player list.
This post kinda speaks for itself, morph doesn't want to vote redtea because it "doesn't advance much knowledge". What knowledge was morph advancing elsewhere instead, and how did that help town to find any scum?


Not gonna lie, I have not even skimmed this wall. Before he posted it he indicated it wasn't all that convincing, even to him.
In post 3527, GuiltyLion wrote:I'll give
intent to hammer
morph but let them have some time to express any last reads or response to anything, so it's not imminent.

One thing I want to make very clear - if morph flips scum and I die tonight,
please do not locktown fua
. The
best
point in fua's favor as to why they are town is no kill on N1, but this is not totally out of the ballpark of an intentional scum gambit. And I do think if morph flips scum, we need to revisit and discuss fua's fake guilty on them, because all that fake guilty ultimately accomplished was making fua-morph look disassociated and giving morph an opportunity to post a bunch of stuff that makes them appear town. And since the fake guilty, almost every comment morph has made about fua has been to assert how obviously town they are. I smell a very serious potential agenda in that if morph flips scum, beyond your normal "sucking up to a town slot"
He posts intent. I post my final reads and ask y'all to end this farce and let us go.
In post 3530, GuiltyLion wrote:hmmmphh blah that doesn't feel like a particularly scummy last words post?? it's a little weird their only comment on me is "nothing clears him".

I'm gonna go out grocery shopping and then to a party in a bit so everyone else has a chance to say any last words, I'll hammer when I get home tonight in about 7-8 hours or so most likely
And then he goes on about how that post wasn't all that scummy but he's going to hammer anyway.

HE'S DISTANCING.

And he's trying to make our read of fua something it isn't. Remember. We're not saying fua is mech cleared. We're saying fua is uber town by play and we'd fight elimming them to the bitter end.

If GL is alive tomorrow, keep this farcical positioning on us in mind.
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Post Post #3537 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 5:08 pm

Post by morph the cat »

closed the spoiler in the wrong place.

Oh well
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Post Post #3538 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:10 pm

Post by morph the cat »

Fixing

My spoiler broke because GL's post contained spoilers, so I'm just linking to the post.


----------------------


I just want to point out a few things in GL's posts over the last couple of calendar days.
In post 3439, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 3436, MegAzumarill wrote:Morph is looking townier here then before but then why the style change?
how is morph looking townie? All they've done is tried to insist fua is mechanically conftown (when they're not), and then snarked at me for daring to re-evaluate on Shirou/nQ, all the while throwing up a bunch of AtE about how demoralized they are and how they'll laugh at town from the dead thread. It feels very much like agenda driven play, regardless of fua's alignment, I don't see any indicators of town trying to solve in what they're doing
We have not called fua mechanically conftown, I don't think. He's a GODTIER TOWNREAD. Which is something else altogether. We are not mech heavy players and this setup does not play to our strengths but, townread/POE is my bread and butter, and while Cabd's playstyle and method of forming reads is different from mine reads trump mech for both of us 99% of the time.

In post 3511, GuiltyLion wrote:so I got home last night and started diving into morph's ISO with the hopes of detailing out a convincing scum case, and honestly it just made me more confused because I don't think they're really as scummy in ISO as I had been thinking. As I was trying to detail my points out it didn't feel like something I super genuinely/earnestly thought was strongly indicative.

I still think the gamestate largely points to them scum, but their associatives with redtea are only loosely incriminating at best. in that it's how smart scum would distance with a partner and make a show about how they don't TR them while not directly pushing very often to get them limmed. but at the same time it's not hard for me to imagine it being town. and when I got to the D2 fake guilty interaction with fua, it's quite smooth fakery if it was a reaction to a town player claiming a guilty on them.

I'll still highlight the stuff I've been looking at in a little bit so that my ISO dive isn't totally wasted, but I'm not gonna pretend like this is better material than it is. basically if morph is scum here, it's a good performance, because I am not walking away from this exercise feeling better about the read
The above feels like hedging and distancing. He doesn't think our ISO is as scummy as he originally thought but he's still going to write it all up. He's already positioning for our townflip and I imagine will be oh so...what was it? egg on face? I think he was talking about shirou when he used that comment earlier.

huge wall of our posts:


Not gonna lie, I have not even skimmed this wall. Before he posted it he indicated it wasn't all that convincing, even to him.
In post 3527, GuiltyLion wrote:I'll give
intent to hammer
morph but let them have some time to express any last reads or response to anything, so it's not imminent.

One thing I want to make very clear - if morph flips scum and I die tonight,
please do not locktown fua
. The
best
point in fua's favor as to why they are town is no kill on N1, but this is not totally out of the ballpark of an intentional scum gambit. And I do think if morph flips scum, we need to revisit and discuss fua's fake guilty on them, because all that fake guilty ultimately accomplished was making fua-morph look disassociated and giving morph an opportunity to post a bunch of stuff that makes them appear town. And since the fake guilty, almost every comment morph has made about fua has been to assert how obviously town they are. I smell a very serious potential agenda in that if morph flips scum, beyond your normal "sucking up to a town slot"
He posts intent. I post my final reads and ask y'all to end this farce and let us go.
In post 3530, GuiltyLion wrote:hmmmphh blah that doesn't feel like a particularly scummy last words post?? it's a little weird their only comment on me is "nothing clears him".

I'm gonna go out grocery shopping and then to a party in a bit so everyone else has a chance to say any last words, I'll hammer when I get home tonight in about 7-8 hours or so most likely
And then he goes on about how the final reads post wasn't all that scummy but he's going to hammer anyway.

HE'S DISTANCING.

And he's trying to make our read of fua something it isn't. Remember. We're not saying fua is mech cleared. We're saying fua is uber town by play and we'd fight elimming them to the bitter end.

If GL is alive tomorrow, keep this farcical positioning on us in mind.
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Post Post #3539 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:35 pm

Post by numberQ »

In post 3485, Cephrir wrote:I'm interested in what fua and morph think of all this mech shit. It makes my head hurt.
Caught up, and I think I resonate with this post the most. Looooots of Shirou posting in the pages I missed, and almost all of it was mech planning. And some of it was several posts in a row flip flopping on the mech planning, which made it even harder to read lol

But I think I get the plan after the last ~8 pages were filled with almost nothing but discussing it. We lim myself, Shirou, morph, and GL in some order, because there has to be scum in there? And that gives us enough confirmed flips to hunt down the last scum? Did I miss something?

The only part of this plan I don't like is that it assumes town!fua. I have not heard any reason that their solve at the end of D3 and then subsequent investigate claim is anything but scum motivated. In fact I like GL's posting about it because it brought up a good point about why Tejate was picked instead of Shirou. The only defense fua's given over that is that they wanted to confirm their solve, which... is a bad defense. The solve came completely out of left field and I'm postulating it was specifically devised just to gambit clear Tejate.

So, yeah. Clearly the fua wagon isn't going anywhere today. I do think morph is suboptimal in terms of confirming things, that would probably be myself actually. Though, I think somebody said (I forget who) that we can afford like 3 mislims before we're even in danger. So morph as a compromise isn't game throwing, at least. Idk though. I don't really think they're scum and I'm not sure what confirming their town flip will give us, tbh.

I won't cry when/if GL hammers later, but if someone can explain what we gain by morph going first in this plan, I'd love to hear it. Maybe it was stated in the past few pages and I just missed it.
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Post Post #3540 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:22 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

dw morph I take full responsibility for your flip if it's town but it'd be a really weird gamestate if that's the case cause idk if that means any scum claimed doc in that universe, and since the mech plan involves at least getting some info/flips in Shirou or nQ it seems like I don't need to worry even if the docs are town

nQ the main thing is that if one of the cop claims is investigated by Meg/Ceph and is confirmed town, it confirms another player as well via their result which is really helpful for formally narrowing the PoE. Confirming morph or myself's alignment would only confirm one town at best, so it's better to use the lim inside of us first, at least for today

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Post Post #3541 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:24 pm

Post by morph the cat »

we're town.

good luck.
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Post Post #3542 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:27 pm

Post by GuiltyLion »

Maaaan :/
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #3543 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 9:28 pm

Post by morph the cat »

enjoy the responsibility.
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Post Post #3544 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:39 pm

Post by Shirou »

Hm, LAMIST by this point but I was about to say "morph last posts to GL kinda look more town than usual" but honestly I still wouldn't have changed my vote. I don't even know who else to vote other than potentially NQ here, but if you're town regardless of NQ alignment there's at least one other scum and...it doesn't sound like GL.

I really think there's one scum in fua/Enchant if Morph is really town but I believe we should stick with the plan anyway for the next day, so tomorrow either me or NQ being the elimination.
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Post Post #3545 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:42 pm

Post by Shirou »

In post 3543, morph the cat wrote:enjoy the responsibility.
*thumbs up*

Sorry for getting your slot wrong if you aren't trolling. But you would have got me wrong as well so...hopefully we can forgive each other postgame.
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Post Post #3546 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:46 pm

Post by Shirou »

Hm

but Enchant helping out us by suggesting confirmation from Meg/Ceph for the mech plan doesn't sound like scum, does it now...?

Hm, If Morph is really town this is a headache, but to me it means NQ almost ~needs~ to be scum. If NQ is also town...hm, expect a problematic game I guess.
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"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
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Post Post #3547 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:49 pm

Post by Shirou »

If Morph is confirmed town I would normally try to sheep their reads for a bit due to me expecting town!ffery/town!Cabd to have better reads than me here on average, but the fact I'm their top suspects...don't give me a lot of confidence on that.

I think that's all I had to say before day end.
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Post Post #3548 (ISO) » Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:54 pm

Post by Enchant »

Idk, what he flip.

If town, it was worth sacrifice, which lead to victory. If mafia, well it's work. You shall understand that.

About who we choose next (yes i suggested NQ first, but it always can change if new intel appear), we discuss next day.
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Post Post #3549 (ISO) » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:24 am

Post by morph the cat »

We're not trolling.

You could be using twilight to tweak plans with that info, but you do you.

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