Open 847 - Trust Fall [Game Over]

[the worst]

hi!!

[the worst]

catchup delayed by 13

i do not think meuh is town

[the worst]

fuzzy vibes from enchant/hem

[the worst]

chavela (leanin on mech a bit)
enchant
bugspray
humaneatingmonkey
^ i hope all town

greeting
kuriyama
ydrasse
pavowski
meuh

thereabouts

pedit: ... lol

[the worst]

meuh the most likely non-me town right now

ooh i'm keen for your read here


viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89054&start=375
i know this is a bit tepid but the innate disconnect between hem/chavela here comes from t/t long before anything else, i don't think scum!hem is incentivised to play this rough and it kinda just pings sincere + a weird way to approach chavela anti-charismatically

kind of glazing over a lot of stuff

[the worst]

i.. think the fact ydraase and i just epicly agree about the scumteam means i'm wrong on one of them and ydrasse is scum

[the worst]

why town!bugspray?

kind of simply, i don't think they're approaching this game the way they would as scum

would you want to be paired today?

eeehhhhh i like 31.7% want to be paired today

if not i assume you would simply want an existing trust offer to be accepted and no others to be made yeah?

haven't decided yet. i'd be fine with 2 of my townreads leaving together too. or really whatever people want, it's a game with incredibly high individual slot agency and i'm along for the ride.

[the worst]

i.. think the fact ydraase and i just epicly agree about the scumteam means i'm wrong on one of them and ydrasse is scum

that's entirely a you problem

deep breaths worst, deep breaths, don't be scared

[the worst]

sounds like a plan

[the worst]

i'm screaming internally eternally

Not going to dive too far into Monkey/Chav except to say it gives me some +Chav vibes and some -Monkey vibes

Tonally Chav is consistent and the resistance/paranoia around Monkey feels fine

Monkey seems fixated on this slot above several others ... maybe it's because Chav is engaging more than most (and they do seem to have history)
But fixating on one slot kinda ... doesn't make sense as a town play

Like, Monkey has stated intent to stay on the island as designated solver, so, why so determined to get a townread from Chav?

Motivation as scum makes more sense here ... like ... I could see the scumchat saying "If I can pocket Chav that would set up x, y, and z"

That being said I still lean towny on Monkey from general play and I'm feeling pretty towny on Chav too

i don't really feel like this is an innocently-intended post

[the worst]

shorter

i'm a lil wary that greeting isn't able to comment on anything but setup strategy but not really sure that's a scumtell in trust fall

[the worst]

why town!bugspray?

kind of simply, i don't think they're approaching this game the way they would as scum

would you want to be paired today?

eeehhhhh i like 31.7% want to be paired today

if not i assume you would simply want an existing trust offer to be accepted and no others to be made yeah?

haven't decided yet. i'd be fine with 2 of my townreads leaving together too. or really whatever people want, it's a game with incredibly high individual slot agency and i'm along for the ride.

Why 31.7% and not 2000%

i think the answer to that question is a lot less exciting than you'd expect.

any questions about anything else?

[the worst]

meuh the most likely non-me town right now

ooh i'm keen for your read here


viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89054&start=375
i know this is a bit tepid but the innate disconnect between hem/chavela here comes from t/t long before anything else, i don't think scum!hem is incentivised to play this rough and it kinda just pings sincere + a weird way to approach chavela anti-charismatically

kind of glazing over a lot of stuff

humaneatingmonkey and i had a very similar interaction previously when humaneatingmonkey was mafia will find it

here it is:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86693&start=675

has almost the same path of

thought you were town but then you did this > engages interaction to then say and now this also!

and in my previous interactions with town!humaneatingmonkey it has generally felt more head on

and much less like trying to drag me into quicksand

i can see where the alarm bells come from. i'm wary that this is as likely to be a personality tell for HEM (abrasive and self-confident) as it is to be a scumtell for HEM.

there's a couple of differences between that game and this game which stick out to me tonally. i'm aware i know the monkey was scum in that game and i don't know the monkey's alignment in this game so it's possible i'm confirmation biasing slightly, but i did feel like HEM believed in the point more this time?

i won't deep dive too much because i'm more interested in checking your opinion of this than like, convincing anyone of my half-baked opinion.

i will admit i don't like, fully understand what HEM was getting at during your lengthy conversation, nor do I care a whole bunch. but it presented as having a lot more depth to it here vs. in the linked game. "your read on jake is bad therefore is made up therefore you're scum" is just genuinely an unproductive and insincere approach to take. not going to go into the scumtells i see in the other game which are missing here. i feel like i can see an evolution of thought in the way HEM is trying to approach your argument here (where the linked game is quite rigid). i also feel like in the linked game HEM seemed pretty drawn to that innate scum need to be viewed as a ~winner~ of the conversation or not lose ground, whereas in this game i just feel like HEM is trying to make their point.

Spoiler:

like if everyone really thinks the approach here for town should be find one town and get out i can find one town and get out

but it just feels like we can do better even if i am beyond terrible at organizing

the problem is you really can't trust the fog of no mechanical information, and at some point you'd need to crystallize your reads by doing mechanical action.

for example, i think playing the way i did created a clear event that you can read from - and the day has not ended. we don't have to wait for the next day to create these events (like for example, me popping a trust (with the understanding that it won't be immediately accepted if the recipient is town).

i think we're still at the point where we'll need to slow this a bit so tris, NorwegianBoy, Greeting, and Adante can catch up and react to these first 15 pages.

chav, i'm shocked you're annoyed by not having the opportunity to be viewed as town this early in the game. didn't you say you'd rather stay later than get trusted early?

for example my reads are

pavowski
norwegianboyEE,
meuh, andante, greeting, tris,
chavela, bugspray

what's yours

okay let's talk about why they're tiered that way

vs. the linked game is just taking far too long to post that thing i said about like "why do you have this read on jake also your read on jake is fake and you're scum !!!!!!" which, is super two-dimensional and HEM spent far too long on it imo. here i felt like HEM was trying to get at something which the monkey probably actually believed in?


i'd also point to a subtle tonal difference between the games. in the linked game i don't think HEM was trying to really make a point which HEM believed in? whereas here i think HEM was genuinely frustrated that there was a disconnect, which makes me feel like the monkey was looking for some kind of actual spark or like, game advancement, which didn't happen. just quoting the posts in both games in which HEM stepped down because i think both portray the tonality i'm seeing.

i got what i needed, thank you.

you have it, you have the towncrown. i concede. go solve.

also;

shiki is a shining river filled with cities

this is so magical.

[the worst]

Are this have refering to "i want to stay and help making pairs"?

do you think i'm basic? or are you not interested in talking about reads?
or both, both is fine. i'm a bit basic so this isn't an edged question.

[the worst]

and if there’s reason for townreading humaneatingmonkey beyond ‘hasn’t accepted trust offer’ i guess i am interested in that as well

I think the way he is intransigent towards you felt kind of townie to me

ditto + i think the way HEM ceded the point is a lot more earnest.
you're better at words.

[the worst]

i'd be fine with ench/hem. i think enchant is honestly too abstract to leave clear associatives, so that world probably defaults to us yelling at each other until the most charismatic players exit two by two.

[the worst]

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i actually think i do like you for town ydrasse

i also think you're absolutely rad but that's less pertinent to winning open 847 !!!

[the worst]

i don't really think i'm seeing anything ai in the flirty vibes from kuriyama/ydrasse. don't really think that kind of pocketing works with grumpy experienced social deduction people tbh.
got a fairly strong gut alt-read on kuriyama and i am fairly certain it's just a personality quirk for them

[the worst]

aren't we all isis, deep down?

[the worst]

I believe thats all of us, yup! Heya Pavowski!

[the worst]

and it’s not like enchant always plays that way - my experience of town!enchant was much more downhill then that, but idk if the difference can be explained by the setup, potentially can

probably partly. idk if it helps but i think enchant is kinda towny partly because they're playing so loose. it's pretty hard to tell what they're thinking but they're making like literally no strides to be any combination of trustworthy, earnest, charismatic, etc.
i don't really feel like enchant is the type of player to take a setup like this (one pocketed towny can be insta-win) and just nosedive into an anti-charisma playstyle?

enchant is also somewhat chaotic i guess.

[the worst]

this might be a really dumb reason but i kind of townread enchant for being not funny

this one ya

[the worst]

Bugs shouldn’t be concerned about being partnered (if they’re town) and so by being concerned, they’re scummy?

yes exactly

i think it's a perspective slip where bugs didn't realize they were supposed to be town. bugs was highlighting the chance that enchant would hit mafia by trusting them. there was no chance to hit mafia if they were town.

this is genuinely funny

[the worst]

i'm kind of tempted to trust kuriyama

[the worst]

soulread, i don't think they're playing a scumgame.

i'd also be really sad if they accepted regardless of their alignment so i have decided to not

[the worst]

kuri/hem/chavela, would you consider this game significantly easier to solve with my flip or no? i don't really have a sense for it yet.

pedit: knew i could trust u kuri <3

[the worst]

like saying ‘oh that’d be bad scumplay’ (even though one of those reads pivoted on norwegianboyee replacement already)

doesn’t make the action towny in anyway?

i'm guessing this isn't directed at me, but please let me know if it was!

[the worst]

if we need to cut the hem/enchant convo in half i'll trust enchant. i just trust myself lategame more than i trust myself earlygame. but if i'm in a sticky slot then etc.

[the worst]

ohhhhhh. i don't think scum are incentivised to accept a pairing this close to deadline.

[the worst]

hold on so why do that trust, the worst? what's the rush? don't you want me and enchant to finally leave the game?

i would do it because i do not think that enchant would accept it!

[the worst]

increases enchant's town equity a lot, which makes this convo more interesting

[the worst]

hold on so why do that trust, the worst? what's the rush? don't you want me and enchant to finally leave the game?

i would do it because i do not think that enchant would accept it!

can you tell me why you would set up a trust between Kuruyama and you, instead of waiting out Enchant and I?

because i do not think that kuriyama would accept it!

[the worst]

increases enchant's town equity a lot, which makes this convo more interesting

and this seems worth the potential risk?

ya

[the worst]

if you don't think it's worth the risk: what are you doing to avoid an enchant flip?

[the worst]

i don't think either of them are scum. that's the point.

[the worst]

idk no one can stop me from leaving the game, right?

not a soul. truly, you have bamboozled us all.

[the worst]

i think you're ok unless you claim to be scum with someone. i regularly claim scum.

[the worst]

if you don't think it's worth the risk: what are you doing to avoid an enchant flip?

? enchant flips at status quo? and i have said multiple times i might trust before i am going to be absent again if it seems correct to me

so you offering enchant just adds variables

yes it does. i feel like you're seeing a problem in this but i genuinely don't see what you're seeing. variables which conform with gamestate & reads are rad.

[the worst]

it would mean i can disrupt a conversation which is getting stale. i'm actually pleased the convo changed from enchant's alignment because i don't think that convo is productive.

[the worst]

if there are uncertainties about enchant's alignment, the answer is simple. someone who doesn't townread enchant needs to disrupt status quo because they think scum are about to flip.

pondering endlessly about enchant's alignment without doing anything to advance reads or check other players' alignments is a waste of posts. mafia games get too fluffed up with that kinda stuff. let's be productive.

[the worst]

weigh in on conversations being had about other players alignments then? or start those conversations?

i think enchant is town and i think town are leading this game! i'm quite pleased with status quo. are you not?

[the worst]

i think that's why i'm leaving the game too. to put my solve to the test, and if it really was a shitty solve, then at least you cool kids can clean up nicely.

wait can you answer question on

enchant’s towniness compared to the worst please? or again if you already did i may have missed it sorry

from this i kind of thought you were caught on enchant, my bad. what's your take on kuriyama?

[the worst]

i thought chav's catchup was a bit boring. i think their reads are changing since then which is more interesting to me. i don't think it's really in scum!their benefit to do a boring catchup then change reads based on who is in the game + vocal + hard to pocket. i think that's probably more likely to come from an innocent approach to the game than one which is motivated by pocketing players to get removed from the game.

i don't really have a rebuttal for your issues with kuri's opening. it wasn't interesting. i don't think i really value being confbiased during catchup as a scumtell, because catching up on games isn't very revealing of alignment imo.

sorry if this wasn't what you were looking for. i have to admit i kinda didn't totally parse that you thought kuri was scum for that.

[the worst]

i thought chav's catchup was a bit boring.

kuri's catchup* sorry

[the worst]

not sure yet.

[the worst]

define game actions?

[the worst]

tunneling someone as scum in this setup is quite bad

being anti town doesn't make you scum and vice versa

what's your read on kuri, like independently of that?

[the worst]

define game actions?

like in terms of what would happen if you put their reads into actions

there isn’t much difference between you being scum or not until later

only potential benefit for scum kuriyama

as i assume norwee replace didn’t vault you to the top of the town list

i think kuri was somewhat quick to townread me but i don't think that immediately townreading me on rep-in is like, a particularly sensible or intuitive decision. i think it's kind of reflexive. agreed, it's kind of hard to decisively case someone in this kind of setup.

[the worst]

i think my solve improves a lot by finding 2 confident town in [pav, ydra, greeting, bugs, meuh, kuri]. so defs predisposed towards looking for town motivation in there, if that helps.

pedit: i'm definitely willing to admit that a lot of my read is "i don't think this is scum" vs. "i think this is strongly town"

[the worst]

my shoulder devil was like "heyyy duck what if we trusted kuriyama....." but then i decided not to. there's not much more to it than that sorry, just a whim.

[the worst]

not being a pain at all btw, asking questions is what we're here for. this has helped me calibrate how strongly i should be feeling abt kuriyama.

[the worst]

you and enchant are my otp. there's several reasons i talk about making trusts without making trusts.

[the worst]

it's quite hard to guess. scum are comfortable with the status quo, or scum feel unable to influence the status quo, or bugspray is scum. fwiw i do think the current core is quite hard to interfere with.

[the worst]

honestly if i was scumming here i'd probably vibe and just let one of you two (chavela 228 (21.73%); hem 191 (18.21%)) leave

you and enchant are my otp. there's several reasons i talk about making trusts without making trusts.

okay for a while there i really thought i caught you in the act of trying to disrupt our trust so you can carve a quick get-away

indeed, as a wise monkey once said,

guys im scum

[the worst]

i literally can't stop trying to charm my way out of stuff. i don't even have anything to weasel out of here and i'm trying to be cute. it's compulsive.

[the worst]

i'm also secretly starting to townread meuh. but i'm not happy about it.

pedit: asdfghjkl;'

[the worst]

[bugs,ydra,pav] could contain 2/2

i'm also secretly starting to townread meuh. but i'm not happy about it.

pedit: asdfghjkl;'

Take the lurkpill, duckling…

ok catch y'all in f6

[the worst]

i 4got about greeting aahhh

[the worst]

Spoiler: warning!!! shocking twist

chavela's signature is not her singing, it is her whispering secrets to enchant in the scum pt

[the worst]

just to be clear I do not give much credit to the s/s theory. Its nonzero but I think there are several far more probable worlds and id just be very impressed.

[the worst]

its kinda like, the way I wish trust fall played out, rather than how i this trust fall actually plays out

[the worst]

farewell, sweet monkey

[the worst]

I will feel a bit sad if Enchant is actually scum.

[the worst]

meuh ur looking at a lot of things which look superficially bad but I find it very hard to believe u actually think I'm scum 4 any of them lol

[the worst]

I would feel very icky about being cleared based on a creepy ogi replacement tell. Can we focus on how towny my play is instead? u_u

[the worst]

yea. sometimes I treat my reads as more serious than they are.

[the worst]

heck yea

[the worst]

kuri/anyone else do you think meuh's case is scummy or misguided or etc.?

I feel like it coming so fresh off the enchant flip (and being the first piece of like, actual game related content in their iso) should tell me something. its also 5am and I feel quite ill so brain not firing.

[the worst]

basically I guess I'm trying to work out if a f3 of [greeting, pavowski, ydrasse] just wins the game and I dont know whether bugspray or meuh is my fourth there. I guess I can see scum identifying me as relatively easy to keep in the poe.

[the worst]

dont really feel like scum were playing at eod1. revisiting what chavela was asking about and what my brain thoughts started focusing on I think bugspray's scum equity is probably a lot higher than I'm giving it credit for. I also dont really feel like scum were playing at eod1.

[the worst]

meuh's case is the sort of thing i could take or leave alignment wise

it feels good on a skim like, oh look, things being said, i don't feel absolutely insane trying to read it from a town meuh's perspective but i also feel like it is ...

i don't like inevitabilities but to me it feels inevitable still that meuh ends up in f4 regardless of whatever opinion is

this kind of resonates with the deep sigh in my soul about it. I'm a lil anxious about this core of meuh/pav/greeting which has 1-2 town in it.

[the worst]

this is actually quite funny. I'm wary of the scum benefit of letting big bad obvtown with lots of posts and lots of chaotic reads leave d1, and then play a big d2 to try and turn the game back around - thats making me more wary of meuh's + ydra's starts to d2.

its not easy replacing in at eod1 and being naturally really towny *glows*

[the worst]

sorry ydrasse, I know this kinda perpetuates the "no fun allowed for ydra" vibe but andante's posts really make my skin crawl. I feel like youre playing well regardless of your alignment.

[the worst]

advancing past that - why so quick to trust kuri?

[the worst]

agreeb. what made you realise?

[the worst]

trust: ydrasse

sorry if this one is epic dumb

[the worst]

i guess what i am saying is

if from scum!meuh's pov

kuri-ydra and shiki-duckie is a town!win

duckie is the only person she can really attack in that group of 4

so it feels like an obligatory thing for her to do.

Yeah. I can see that.

[the worst]

the secret to winning this game is jusr sorting the lurkcore and I dont think im any closer to sorting meuh

[the worst]

>:)

hi u scum?

[the worst]

nice, me too.....

[the worst]

am i scum?

i hope so, let my suffering end

[the worst]

#stillscum oops #stilltown

[the worst]

I think like, holistically the greatest vector to loss atp would be scum in me/meuh, which is a v good vibe imo

[the worst]

I think the team is bugs/pav, probably.

[the worst]

I'm really exhited for chavela to come back and be like "..... what have you all done" but actually be pleased about it

[the worst]

I think the team is bugs/pav, probably.

No Greeting?

Greeting is the most null read I have ever had in the history of null reads, unfortunately. He just... fits in any solve...

[the worst]

I can kind of see ways to town read greeting tbh? if he's scum then his wincon is finding a pocket and leveraging it to get out of the thread, basically. if he's town then his wincon is finding a pocket who he's confident isn't scum, and leveraging it to get out of the thread. for real, I'd posit that just hard pocketing peoole is the way to win as either alignment in trust fall. but anyway.

he seems acutely aware of his need to find a vector to leave the thread and is actually like, discussing his prospects and how likely they are to help him advance his wincon itt. I feel like theres a dissonance between this + the natural guilt associated with needing to pocket someone and exploit their trust. I dont think all that high a % of scum players are likely to actually post publicly with this kind of dissonance.

posts for illustration.

I could make a trust offer to

chavela

tbf. This sounds like slot who has an exceptionally low chance of being scum. But would they reciprocate? Given the fact that they have two trust offers already and don't seem to keen on even considering any of them, I doubt it.

..then again, I don't see myself trusting neither

bugspray

nor

humaneatingmonkey

so far.

Is getting out today important to you?

No, but getting out eventually with someone whom I am very sure (ideally 100%) is town is my priority for town to win the game. The way I see it, 7 to 8 townies have an individual task to do and I’m trying to do mine.

It is also extremely important for me not to waste my vote or throw it around because I have only one per day.

If no one whom I think is worthy of a trust offer is willing to reciprocate then there is no point in me making any offers for the sake of it. They will change nothing. I have to either change my mind about someone else or wait for one player I trust to trust me back.

Okay, the only players I’m comfortable trusting are

Norwee

and

chavela

. I don’t think

chavela

would accept my offer nor an offer from anyone tbf.

So I guess there will be no offer from me to anyone this day.

so if greeting is scum surely his approach here is to like, actually make more efforts to look like hes doing the thing which he signals town needs to do in post 666. if we treat this as a perspective slip, i think hes accidentally showing an intent to solve rather than an intent to be viewed as town.

I am so happy post #666 inadvertently displays virtue

[the worst]

the replacement trio

oh this is hilarious

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DUCK do you think I'm scum because lurk or because other reasons?

Lurk is a reduction but not a bad reduction. I feel like you're really struggling to sink your teeth into this game and I think we're in a gamestate where its likely disproportionately difficult for scum to do so.

[the worst]

Okay my head is really doing me in, and the thing that's bugging me is this

Why has nobody trusted Chav today? It's the replacement trio playing footsie with each other which is ... interesting but

scum!Chav was around when HEM gave warning they'd accept Enchant's trust, kept talking back and forth, and basically had every opportunity to accept their own trust before letting HEM/Enchant jump, but did not take that opportunity

I don't see why scum lets that slip

So I'm gonna trust Chav tomorrow morning unless somebody has a really good reason to talk me out of it ... whether Chav accepts or not I'm gonna at least toss a trust this game

Fairly simple for me. I don't think my goal is to find my one true love to leave with and be happy ever after. My goal is to find 6-8 town or 1-2 scum. Trusting ydrasse felt right, and I needed more on ydrasse's alignment.

Chavela already is what she is. Eventually, she'll leave the game and almost certainly flip town. We don't need to sort her further imo so using my one trust for the day on her wouldn't be valuable!

[the worst]

do you generally agree with consensus bugs?

[the worst]

I'm not saying I dont understand why youre finding this game difficult. Just that I can see that you are. Where are your reads at rn?

[the worst]

hi hi

[the worst]

trust: ydrasse

sorry if this one is epic dumb

hmhmhm

could you walk me through the

'i am worried mafia!ydrasse is turning it on for day two'

to

trusting ydrasse thought process please?

god it's difficult to explain. the more i read ydrasse's posts the more i felt like, incorrect. i don't really think their d2 has been scummy, i don't think kuriyama is the correct choice for a d2 pivot-pocket if ydrasse+andante lurked d1 away as scum. being totally honest with myself a lot of the reason i kept getting nervous with ydrasse is because i really disliked andante. i felt Incredibly Right for just long enough to type it out and hit submit.

[the worst]

im kind of thinking about trusting duck to end the game because if duck/me flip t/t then ydra should be clear since she couldve accepted duck and ydra/shiki would end the game

let's see

so you're pretty likely to be town

and ydrasse very likely to be town or! partnered with the worst

so if the worst town then ydrasse town

so logic makes sense

but!

guess i would maybe like to be more confident in town!the worst than i am right now

as mafia!the worst does not leave us in a very good position

as ydrasse becomes very much not confirmed and we would no longer be able to miss and still need to find four towns with just one known

i agree, from a holistic/external pov, me being scum does kinda put us in the worst possible timeline. this can't really be mechanically corrected either. i'll just try to remain radiant.

[the worst]

i dont think scum are playing much at all this game

it's like all the townies are mingling and they mingled a lot early and it's too hard now for scum to really break into the core

I kinda agree tbf. My problem is that there's not nearly enough players I'm confident are town.

i guess we can try to kinda break this down.
without factoring in trusts, who do you think is town?;
having factored in trusts, who do you think is town?;
if you don't townread anyone who has left a trust un-answered, why not?

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

zero percent.

[the worst]

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

0%

dangit i thought i was funny

[the worst]

But it feels dismissive, questioning my motives behind it before yknow, the actual argument I made, which is what I'd expect people to focus on?

picking your case apart isn't a productive use of my time. it isn't a scumcase, it's a list of things which can look scummy if you bend yourself into a pretzel. :p
i don't really feel compelled to win these kinds of arguments, when i can just foucs on doing my thing.

"scummy or misguided or etc.?" is uh well I guess it includes the etc which is very nice of them. However Duckie's approach to responding to my post mostly comprises of throwing shade on me or really pushing the idea of either

this was principally directed at kuriyama who wasn't picking up what you were putting down. i wanted to ask them if they thought it was scummy or misguided, then realised other perspectives might be interesting so i added the "/anyone" and the "etc".

[the worst]

i had the same paranoid moment earlier today then talked myself out of it for the same reason.

[the worst]

i had the same paranoid moment earlier today then talked myself out of it for the same reason.

like thinking about it there are possible kuriyama partners

but thinking about those at length right now feels like one of those enticing distractions i sometimes get trapped by

agreed - i think kuri is aware that their best play is still to just leave as soon as they're trusted.

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god it's difficult to explain. the more i read ydrasse's posts the more i felt like, incorrect. i don't really think their d2 has been scummy, i don't think kuriyama is the correct choice for a d2 pivot-pocket if ydrasse+andante lurked d1 away as scum. being totally honest with myself a lot of the reason i kept getting nervous with ydrasse is because i really disliked andante. i felt Incredibly Right for just long enough to type it out and hit submit.

i guess it is like

the worry about day two activity makes sense

and can be extended to like, potential game ending danger from town trusts there

but i guess it is like, you're the one who acted on that though

and you were the one acting on the potential town pairing yesterday as well, though not going so far as to offer a trust yesterday

and if kuriyama is town and the poe they laid out is correct, i guess i would expect the mafias to be trying to do, something more?

unless that's what meuh is doing i guess?

given my reads on hem and enchant, offering a trust yesterday would have been quite silly. i think ydrasse's trust was quite good but given the way my read on her was trending i think trusting her made a pretty significant impact on the gamestate.

i think there's two worlds for mafia if kuriyama is town: one in which they try to do more (meuh fits here; i honestly don't really feel like ydra does despite initial concerns) --- OR they feel they aren't able to effect it. bugspray and pavowski are examples of this that jump to mind. i think bugspray made a really clear attempt to sway EOD1 and i do think pav is trying to change consensus on him.

also think this game would be really difficult to sink one's teeth into, esp. if dealing with a scum player who struggles to produce pure-sounding content

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but also duckie and i could leave without anyone's approval if we wanted

you'd need my approval, sorry.

given my reads on hem and enchant, offering a trust yesterday would have been quite silly.

i mean, thus my reaction to the hypotheticals

and even though you didn't offer one, i feel like, as town,

you can see why it felt like you were doing

the

but maybe

thing that scums do sometimes

sure, i can see where you're coming from. though i'd also point out that in the right circumstance, saying you want to do something with enough certainty is as conversationally interesting as actually doing the thing.
but there's also a very significant literal difference between talking about doing something, and actually doing it.
as for the outcome, i think our conversations at eod1 were much more interesting even though the outcome went as intended. which was the ideal outcome.

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i don't

hate

it but i'd rather play this phase to a point where chavela in particular is more comfortable than she currently is

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it's like, things feel kinda right

but also feel too easy

and also there have been

things

and my ability to tell if the

things

mean anything at all is currently nonexistent

like kuriyama said would put the puzzle together with me if necessary and it currently feels like i am over here combining all of the puzzles and removing the pictures with acetone

tbqh i think an underrated % of accurate solves feel "too easy" at the time

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I guess a duck/ydra scumteam is probably the least outlandish of the outlandish theories. I'm still town, is all, and I think that makes ydra town in most universes.

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i literally can't watch

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I am quite pleased

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where's that humaneatingmonkey post

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i dont think scum are playing much at all this game

it's like all the townies are mingling and they mingled a lot early and it's too hard now for scum to really break into the core

I kinda agree tbf. My problem is that there's not nearly enough players I'm confident are town.

i guess we can try to kinda break this down.
without factoring in trusts, who do you think is town?;
having factored in trusts, who do you think is town?;
if you don't townread anyone who has left a trust un-answered, why not?

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

zero percent.

@greeting this is still something i really need before I'm gonna feel confident on you. There are players who are mechanically a lot townier than I am (Ydra/Kuri should contain 2 town; chavela as scum likely would have self-yeeted d1). I'm townsiding and making the right noises, but I'm not sure I'd look all that different if I was scum in this game. From your pov, I think the core difference between me and those three is that ive made an effort to look for town motivation in your play - which makes me a bit wary about a trust offer.

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I think I'm fairly close to being willing to bet the game that Pav is scum. I don't want to bet the game on anything though.

Meuh, please talk to me if you start feeling the temptation.

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Greeting -- I would probably consider chavela someone who has a similar level of innate intensity to their gameplay than me (sorry shiki i hope that is a compliment) And I'm kind of surprised chavela doesn't top out your list.

I also feel like you have a lot of awareness of how the mechanics of this setup should inform dayplay, but I dont really feel like you've acknowledged a few things which strike me as like, profoundly mechanically pertinent.

- why would scum!chavela spend the second half of d1 forcing town to open their third eye and reevaluate their reads, but then stick around for d2 if she was scum?
- why would kuriyama not immediately leave with ydrasse; why would ydrasse not immediately leave with kuriyama?
- (much more fresh) why would meuh not immediately leave with her choice of pav/spray?

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where's that humaneatingmonkey post

This one?

Spoiler:

guys im scum

that's the one. :p

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humaneatingmonkey, Vanilla Townie, left with Enchant on Day 1!
Enchant, Vanilla Townie, left with humaneatingmonkey on Day 1!

just spent like a good 30 seconds wondering how it happened that these two sentences were exactly the same length

mafia rots my brain I swear

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such a good feature right?

so you admit you are scum

clearly.

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I think you/ydra is a better dip tbh

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Pavo is absolutely scum I think.

Greeting - I hear you. We can talk more d3.

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VOTE: meuh

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sry if wasteful

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i'm gettin all excited !!!

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the worst
meuh, chavela*
greeting
pavowski
bugspray


fairly sure the bottom two are just scum
i think chavela is like 0.1% less likely to be town than meuh but it's not meaningful

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chav/meuh is probably the ideal pair for today

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I kinda feel this happened partly thanks to my trust offer which scared the hell out of everyone.

i think it was influential, but i think for the opposite reason - the kinda chain of [kuriyama <== ydrasse] [ydrasse <== worst] [worst <== greeting] really feels like it's just asserted that town is v close to winning

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if i am forced to solve f4 i will be so sad

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ditto. but i think i'm better off just assuming my anxieties are dumb and bad because chav is reaaaaallly probably just town

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Spoiler: only open this postgame if chav flipped scum because i'm obviously scum trying to sow discord and this tinfoil will not help town win this game

Okay my head is really doing me in, and the thing that's bugging me is this

Why has nobody trusted Chav today? It's the replacement trio playing footsie with each other which is ... interesting but

scum!Chav was around when HEM gave warning they'd accept Enchant's trust, kept talking back and forth, and basically had every opportunity to accept their own trust before letting HEM/Enchant jump, but did not take that opportunity

I don't see why scum lets that slip

So I'm gonna trust Chav tomorrow morning unless somebody has a really good reason to talk me out of it ... whether Chav accepts or not I'm gonna at least toss a trust this game

this post kind of makes me very slightly wary of a pavowski/chavela scumteam. i do think if chav is scum with pav she has some limited motivation not to leave on d1 (to use her town clout to correct the gamestate so pav isn't stuck poe). i don't really think this onus extends to d2 necessarily, but also chavela never had a chance to leave on d2.

her excitement for accurate trusts has been a little muted compared to the rest of the town core. that being said, you can also explain this away as her being anxious that we have scum in the towncore - which she has multiple times - so shrug.

Why has nobody trusted Chav today?

assuming chav/pav for a moment; i think this is the type of thing which feels like a more clever post than it actually is. it's just a very strange thing to muse about if you're coming from a pov of trying to solve this game.

It's the replacement trio playing footsie with each other which is ... interesting but

i definitely think this kind of sentiment pairs well with what scum!chavela would have been aiming for in this phase, and does more to compromise the town core than it does to help us solve each other.

honestly chavela is almost certainly just town. i just need to get this off my chest in the tiny tiny chance we're being finessed and i have to deal w it tomorrow.
if i'm scum i think this narrative is something i need to almost obligatorily push, so i wouldn't suggest putting all that much stock in it.

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town has probably already won once chavela/meuh leave. if not, greeting, it's up to you & me to save the world. hope you're ready.

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i think there's almost a 0% chance scum!meuh doesn't take one of the trusts offered d2

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also haven't been pinged by any associatives from pavowski/bugspray but i will do the exercise if she flips scum

i'm loathe to do the full exercise on either a scum!meuh universe or a scum!chavela universe today given i'm already p sure we're about to win

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i think you would've, yeah. the only real counter-argument i have is that i think you had a LOT of momentum/control on d1, and i think come d2 that control was spread more evenly amongst a handful of players and it would've been significantly harder to get pav out of the game.

i kinda did an exercise of considering who in this game (personality/gameplay wise) would be the most likely to deliberately pass on trusts to ensure their partner was trusted first, and i think first place is tied between you/kuriyama/maybe me. despite both being quite regular i'm not actually sure that we've played together a bunch, so i'm kind of anxious to try and define your limitations & abilities as a scum player. i just know that you're pretty good.

basically yeah there should not be a world where you & meuh don't leave today, but i'm at like 96.8% on you and about 98.7% on meuh and just kind of trying to swallow that ever-present lump in my throat.

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that's totally reasonable, it's also more likely than any upside-down-distorted-world interpretation of your play that has you as scum imo.

i'm not sure i'm at the point where it's possible for me to become more convinced that you're town.

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i pinkie promise i'll tryhard in f4 if one of you is scum

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dead thread and prism probably going

.....................................................

right now can feel it from the beyond

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i'm fine leaving today.

pros:
- i'm town!
- you can disprove me/meuh, if you want

cons:
- i trust myself to get f4 right if it's needed;
- i also trust chavela to get f4 right if it's needed


meuh how confident would you feel about finding a partner for chav or i if we flipped scum?

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i'd rank them as like
chav/meuh > meuh/worst > chav/worst > anything else

but that's what i would say as scum to be subversive, right?!?!!

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as the like, self-asserted honourary party to this trust, me three

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group high five !!!!!!!!!!!!

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assuming my solve is right: greeting is in the car outside yelling "wait for me everyone!!"

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Day 4

we aren't friends anymore prism </3

just kidding. fun game, thanks for modding!! gg town!

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I think identifying the need for a pocket was technically smart, but selecting Meuh for that was not a good call. Meuh was already communicating well with the town core, and it wasn't too difficult to reshape our winning strategy around her being cleared. This all being said, I don't know who a better pocket would be. I don't think Greeting was really pocketable either.

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1470 is a good write-up on the issue with that play. I do think town was quite likely to win anyway, though.

I mentioned it in my replace-in DM, but I am a huge fan of the limitation on the number of trusts. I do think 1 initiation per player per phase is about right. If I'd had the ability to, in this game, I think I would have used more trusts to garner more mechnical information - it does feel like most of our info/win game from sheer dayplay which I'm a huge fan of.

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Mafia, a game where player agency is crucial to enjoyment, is

horrible

when each player has significant agency.

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I think I would prefer Greeting's suggestion over the original setup. One thing that I don't think can be understated about Prism's refraction of the setup is how much it encourages a high standard of day-play. There's very little you can do, mechanically, to win this game. One just has to find their team (or their suckers) and work with them.

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you're welcome

eh in an ideal world we wouldnt have replacements EVER but they're just part of life