NY 162: A Week at the Theatres (Game Over)

[Bacde]

he is just not that kind of person. he stays inside on saturday nights.

lol I was asleep man sorry

[Bacde]

Lets get A_D I don't buy his last post where he was all depressed

Vote: Action_Dan

[Bacde]

Actually I'm willing to get Peregrine too

its like hes willing to pop in and overdefend himself with 1000 links, but when it comes down to finding scum he is completely absent

[Bacde]

well that post confirms either A_D or roflcopter as scum to me

discuss

[Bacde]

are you actually serious with this nonsense?

more actiondan votes

What if our nonsense is serious though

[Bacde]

he has no observable reason to think that HD clearly chainsaw defended MrZepher?

[Bacde]

I'm lurking cuz I want to see how other people respond

[Bacde]

Oh shit. I hadn't realized it has been that long since I last posted. Sorry for the prod guys. I hate doing that.

Bacde, we should do a Hydra together.

That is all.

I'm down

[Bacde]

^^I dont really understand your post but it looks like you are stretching for a reason to not vote for actiondan

[Bacde]

derp

[Bacde]

dude I have no idea whats going on anymore

is this real life

or is this just fantasy

[Bacde]

I could buy peta being scum tho, I have no idea why he suddenly is mentioning me as a possible scum and he's been pushing the idea for a couple days or so

[Bacde]

^^I can understand that thought process and I agree completely

[Bacde]

Smash where you at man

lets figure this out

I'm town btw so don't trip on that

[Bacde]

I mean, a ZONEACE lynch does sound tempting but I'm super skeptical of roflcopter right now

[Bacde]

im cool with that

[Bacde]

I mean, a ZONEACE lynch does sound tempting but I'm super skeptical of roflcopter right now

his scumgame from the last time i played with him was super weak, he pushed retarded reads and avoided bussing there's nothing to be skeptical of

link?

[Bacde]

SERIOUSLY IF SMASH'S BREADCRUMBING IS SO FUCKING OBVIOUS WHY DOESN'T HE JUST CLAIM? If I'm so stupid that I must be the only one who doesn't see it, then what is the fucking point of him not just telling us? It's utter bullshit.

You people aren't using any fucking thought, just jumping from wagon to wagon in the hopes of getting a lynch to end the day.

that's not how you're supposed to play this game (unless you're scum and the target of the lynch doesn't matter as long as it's not a scummate)

I feel like this post is townie cuz it pretty accurately describes my play back when he posted it lol

[Bacde]

massclaim massclaim massclaimcaslcaimsslacaims

masslcaim

masslcaim
malsicm
a
asmdas

[Bacde]

and if neither smash nor replacementkingdomaces fucking catches a bullet tonight then lynch them

do you find it strange that a different power role has been dying each night?

cuz it makes sense to me to target a different power role over a mason

[Bacde]

KingdomAces -

Day Mason

Smashbard -

Day Mason

JacobSavage -
roflcopter -
petapan -
Oversoul -
ZONEACE -
PeregrineV -
Bacde -

What does everyone think of this order for claimage?

I like being last so, yes

[Bacde]

based on p3-p4 I can safely say that peta and ZONACE are probably not scumbuddies

[Bacde]

KingdomAces - Day Mason
Smashbard - Day Mason
JacobSavage -Vanilla Townie
roflcopter - Vanilla Townie
petapan -

Oversoul -
ZONEACE -
PeregrineV -
Bacde -

petapan is next

I'm not convinced that ZONEACE is being like he is out of scum motivation, I want to finish the massclaim before analyzing that.

[Bacde]

also ZONEACE stop worrying so much about being at L-2 if you already have a scum voting for you apparently

[Bacde]

holy shit oversoul post your claim

[Bacde]

You don't know what I'm gonna claim

[Bacde]

He's going to claim I tin of Tomato Ketchup, I just know it.

posting so that the next claim will be at the top of the page

[Bacde]

KingdomAces - Day Mason
Smashbard - Day Mason
JacobSavage -Vanilla Townie
roflcopter - Vanilla Townie
petapan - Vanilla Townie
Oversoul -

ZONEACE -
PeregrineV -
Bacde -

[Bacde]

KingdomAces - Day Mason
Smashbard - Day Mason
JacobSavage -Vanilla Townie
roflcopter - Vanilla Townie
petapan - Vanilla Townie
Oversoul - Vanilla Townie
ZONEACE -

PeregrineV -
Bacde -

ZONEACE you're up buddy

[Bacde]

KingdomAces - Day Mason
Smashbard - Day Mason

JacobSavage -Vanilla Townie
roflcopter - Vanilla Townie

petapan - Mafia

Oversoul - Vanilla Townie

ZONEACE - Gunsmith

PeregrineV - Vanilla Townie

Bacde - Unclaimed

Updated claims

[Bacde]

KingdomAces - Day Mason
Smashbard - Day Mason

JacobSavage -Vanilla Townie

roflcopter - Vanilla Townie

petapan - Mafia

Oversoul - Vanilla Townie

ZONEACE - Gunsmith

PeregrineV - Vanilla Townie

Bacde - Unclaimed

Updated claims

since I might die tonight
these are my townreads from a quick reread of the beginning of the game

[Bacde]

KingdomAces - Day Mason
Smashbard - Day Mason

JacobSavage -Vanilla Townie

roflcopter - Vanilla Townie

petapan - Mafia

Oversoul - Vanilla Townie

ZONEACE - Gunsmith

PeregrineV - Vanilla Townie

Bacde - Unclaimed

Updated claims

since I might die tonight
these are my townreads from a quick reread of the beginning of the game

So, even though you are the last to claim, you don't claim?

And you somehow think you will be killed tonight over the Mason, the other Mason, and the Gunsmith?

I really need all these questions answered, as this entire post makes no sense from a town PoV.

If I think ZONEACE is telling the truth (and I do)

and I believe that I am confirmed town (which I do)

What motivation do I have to claim? You guys will figure out everything you need to know about what I know after you see my flip and read my ISO

trust me, it wont be hard

[Bacde]

PeregrineV, who do you think is the last mafia and why?

[Bacde]

cmon dude, we need your last input to help us right before we lunch youu

[Bacde]

^^honestly I feel like jacobsavage is town

what do you think smash?

Since if we can get 1 strong townread, we win the game

[Bacde]

I'm liking Peregrines recent defenses against the likes of Jacob & Oversoul. His points against Oversouls meta seem particularly convincing to me.

Maybe Go/HD was a scum gambit after all. I'm still not sure. But at this point I think I'd like to let Peregrine slide for another dayphase and take out Oversoul or Rofl.

FYI, both of the links I posted were Oversoul-town in other games. One with superscumhuntingOversoul, and another with plodposting Oversoul.

There's some stuff I can't say now, but can you point out what you are talking about in the Go/HD "scum gambit"?

look at page 4

[Bacde]

^^honestly I feel like jacobsavage is town

what do you think smash?

Since if we can get 1 strong townread, we win the game

I'll put it this way, if Savage isn't town we lose. Because I'd rather lynch Oversoul, Rofl & Peregrine before Jacob, but I also don't really have a good solid town read on Jacob either. His active lurking all game except for the last day phase when he was just a vanilla townie (claim anyway) doesn't sit well with me. But since then his willingness to claim first and otherwise scumhunting efforts makes me unsure of whether I think he's scum either.

He's basically an uncomfortable null read for me right now because there's so many better lynch candidates than him.

here's the thing though

I feel like he is the least scummy scumbag out of the 4 of them

I know that goes against what I said yesterday but thats how I feel right now

[Bacde]

Jacob setting up for a fake claim doesn't make any sense considering he offered to claim first and immediately claimed Vanilla. Chances are he was just trying to save Nobody Special from a kill.

I'm guessing both Jacob and Bacde have tried the whole "Look at me scum, don't kill the power roles, because I've got something going on!" when in reality they probably don't.

Given that information, and Peregrines defenses seeming really genuine, I'm pretty much sold on Oversoul or Rofl being the last scum.

If I'm wrong, on both accounts and the town ends up in Lylo, you guys probably want to follow Aces suspicions on there being a Mafia Doctor or Godfather and lynch Bacde at the very end. Or whatever. I won't be alive til that point anyway. Unless Scum really really wanna hand us the game and continue to keep the Masons alive.

[Bacde]

^^Actually thats good thinking

we might have 2 scum left

if there were only 4 scum and 18 players, that would comprise less than 25% of the town, which is unlikely

Also there's no way that there is a mafia doctor in this game, as the only non-mafia killing role was a dayvig

Also, if there are 2 scum left then a gf is unlikely

[Bacde]

having 2 scum left would also help explain why it feels like too many of the 4 unconfirmeds are scummy

[Bacde]

^^When was Mr. Zepher convinced that there was a vig?

[Bacde]

peregrine stop flooding the thread with huge blocks of colored text

are you worried about his blocks of text helping us out?

[Bacde]

no they're just obnoxious and i don't want to waste my time reading what he thinks is so important if he's not going to explain why its so important

considering that there are likely 2 scum in the 4 unconfirmeds, who do you think is your town buddy?

[Bacde]

does jacob tend to contribute more as town or is he always useless?

[Bacde]

i'm guessing he tends to contribute more at endgame when he's the last scum alive, and his "contribution" has been 1) doing clerical work that literally anyone can do regardless of alignment and 2) volunteering to claim first

I'm wondering because his non-contributory stance on this game can't be taken as scummy if this style of play is his MO

but does he tend to at least try as town? Because if he does that would indicate that in this game he may be scum

[Bacde]

I mean from what I gathered you case is: Jacob hard bussed Zepher and then soft bussed peta and HD.

Which is pretty laughable to be honest.

My Zepher read was based almost wholly on ISOing Trollie when the day opened.

Why is this idea laughable?

[Bacde]

He is?

you're kidding me

you are trying to purport that you had no idea that mrzepher was a weaker player than peta?

[Bacde]

you couldn't just "feel" that mrzepher was weaker than peta?

[Bacde]

Vote: PeregrineV

[Bacde]

I ADMIT NOTHING

[Bacde]

Seriously though, PeregrineV you got really comfortable and complacent after everyone started thinking you were town, yet posted IMMEDIATELY after I voted you, whats up with that?

Rofl found good reason for thinking OS is town, IIRC that petapan post is why I thought OS was town myself (I posted a reads list yesterday w/ colors and everything)

Honestly, the way peta campaigned to buddy rofl just really makes me think rofl is town. If peta did all that to buddy his own scumbuddy then I'm truly impressed, because that's a crazy weird play. IMO rofl is town

I can see Jacob as scum if Pere isn't, he did do a couple of awkward things (such as having ALL of the scum as either "definitely town" or "definitely scum" on his list). Also I don't understand how he can't just IMMEDIATELY tell which players are stronger and which players are weaker (but then again he MIGHT be telling the truth about that since he seems to prefer to not read into the thread anyway)

[Bacde]

what this thread really needs is more direction from the conftowns

I completely agree with you here

I wanted to see how the 4 of you interacted but I think its time to start grabbing this thread by the balls

Smash, can you see any reason to NOT lynch peregrine right now?

[Bacde]

3. rofl received many town reads from scum, and currently "town confirmed by gunsmiths" players can't seem to adequately verbalize why rolf is so town

Uhm, to be clear, I have been an advocate for a Rofl lynch for the past several day phases. Especially after the chumminess between himself and Peta trying to direct the town into a mislynch of Zoneace together.

It's everyone else who keeps saying that Rofl is somehow indisputably town, so I have conceded my pressure on him for the sake of trying to get all of us to agree on a viable lynch.

what this thread really needs is more direction from the conftowns

Your only hope of that happening is if it comes from Bacde. Because KingdomAces doesn't have the ability to direct the town and all of my ideas have been horrible and I haven't actually been on a successful Scum Wagon since the start of the game. So we have exactly zero credibility to lead anyone to a lynch.


To be fair, your point about Zepher trying to get Jacob lynched over his lurkiness definitely gives Savage a lot of town points. I didn't see Zepher as a player clever enough to think so far ahead that bussing Jacob would be a move that would make Jacob seem town later down the line, so the chances of Savage being town are greater than his chances of being scum.

However, your point again as to Peta mentioning that HD was looking miles better than Go in their interactions seems weird to me if Oversoul would end up as scum. Because why would Peta side with one scum over the other so early in the game if he had no reason to at that point? So maybe I am wrong about Oversoul.

But if I concede that, then the only possible scum left are between Peregrine, Bacde and yourself. Being that I currently believe Bacde to be town, this whole last minute spat between yourself and Peregrine has got to be scum vs. scum spreading some last minute confusion for the town.

smashbard I know you are sorta upset about your reads this game but knowing that you are town has been indispensible for me to make not-shitty reads this game. TBH I've been about as wrong as you have this game

Except we were both right about 1 thing right at the beginning of the game--we are both town and we are going to win this game

Here is why I think rofl is town: it makes more sense for peta to buddy up to a townie than to buddy up to another member of the mafia. It is harder to detect, it allows him to manipulate town's opinions better, and we are worse at tracking who the mafia is after peta's flip

The motivations make more sense for peta to behave the way he did if rofl was town

AS MUCH as it would be satisfying to lynch rofl just because of his association with peta, I think peta was purposely coercing what he perceived to be a townie who was on the ball (since he kept saying "get zepher, lynch HD if zepher flips scum")

[Bacde]

Smash your opinions are actually helpful to me

if I can't convince you that rofl is town, then I want us to keep looking at rofl until we come to a conclusion

A lot of your opinions that I thought were retarded at the time (such as if greygnarl flips town, then ZONEACE is confirmed town) actually ended up being VERY correct

I feel like together we make a really good townie so lets figure this out

[Bacde]

Seriously though PeregrineV your beetlejuice looks really bad

I was totally willing to move my vote away but you HAD to post something right after I voted you

[Bacde]

pedit- was going to unvote but now I wont

Smash I'm not trying to coerce you, and your point about the scumteam all interacting this game a lot is a good point imo

[Bacde]

Smash your opinions are actually helpful to me

if I can't convince you that rofl is town, then I want us to keep looking at rofl until we come to a conclusion

A lot of your opinions that I thought were retarded at the time (such as if greygnarl flips town, then ZONEACE is confirmed town) actually ended up being VERY correct

I feel like together we make a really good townie so lets figure this out

@Rofl- This is buddying.

fyi the only possible way for me to be scum is if I'm a godfather or mafia doctor, and we've already had a scum PR flip

I mean its possible for there to be 2 scum PRs but considering town's power this game I don't think so

[Bacde]

Are you just going to flail and accuse everyone who votes for you as scum out of the blue despite never once declaring these suspicions before this point?

Please, tell me how the two claimed Mason's are scum now too, since my vote is on you.

Unvote

. Until an official vote count is posted.

???

Not sure what you are talking about.

well you accused me of buddying, which is silly since I've been buddying smashbard since d1

we even laughed at rofl when he accused us on d1 of buddying w/ each other and being scum together

there was no way for me to know he was a mason when I did so

we just both genuinely read each other as town

[Bacde]

After this, if Peregrine flips town, I'm sticking my vote on Rofl and not moving.

I'm at L-1 and will flip town, so you should move your vote now.

honestly you seem more motivated to not get lynched than to find scum

[Bacde]

what was with your "miracle" post snark then?

bc that wasn't bullshit--that was the post I looked at to think that OS was prob-town

[Bacde]

hell, even confirmed players

[Bacde]

rolf or Bacde I'd assume.

screw this VOTE: PereV

ooooh jacob takes on a new tone in this post

[Bacde]

Unvote

honestly there are probably 2 scum left since 4 scum in an 18 man game is pretty low

i like your logic so far smash

[Bacde]

how crazy would it be if the scum was rofl/OS

[Bacde]

dude the dead QT is probably so upset right now they are like

"how the FUCK is it bacde + smashbard running the town right now"

esp. considering how retarded we were on d1

I'll probably end up voting OS w/ you

since 2 scum left makes more sense than 1 scum left

[Bacde]

to be fair though, both of our players in night-power-role slots

forgot to use their actions

so I think we are carrying the torch well

[Bacde]

I dunno what to tell ya

if the scum have a GF it ain't me

but I think they probably don't

if you think I could be scum w/ OS then it makes sense to lynch OS today

[Bacde]

I just don't know

HD suggested to me to lynch OS back in the day when there was a wagon forming on someone else

was he really suggesting a bus lynch?

[Bacde]

I'm in agreement with Bacde in terms of Konowa's reads; it's unlikely they'll be useful if Konowa wasn't killed directly, and there's no way to tell for certain whether he was or wasn't.

Bacde, can I interest you in an

VOTE: Oversoul

wagon?

[Bacde]

yeah dude that info is cruc

[Bacde]

Its an ongoing game I guess

tbh I could buy it being jacob

[Bacde]

jacob/pere are my two top scum picks

[Bacde]

Its an ongoing game I guess

tbh I could buy it being jacob

do you think zepher was distancing? he really tried to make a jacob wagon happen. that's what keeps me coming back to pere instead of jacob.

I dunno, I don't think its worth it to base this read on zepher

something about JS's play has felt innocent to me

and something about Pere has felt like scum

I remember on d5 or something I expressed suspicion of Pere and he responded with a crazy detailed post out of nowhere, it felt really out of place, and it would make sense if he was scum

[Bacde]

if pere/JS flip town then I want to lynch out of OS/rofl though just in case we have 2 scum left instead of one

[Bacde]

VOTE: PeregrineV

[Bacde]

this would be way easier if peregrine wasn't accusing you OS

can whoever is town and is wrong about their accusation please just admit it please?

[Bacde]

I don't follow?

there is guaranteed a town voting for town on the VC

I don't know who it is though

[Bacde]

I don't follow?

there is guaranteed a town voting for town on the VC

I don't know who it is though

it's oversoul's jacob vote, and smash's oversoul vote

puzzle solved

I hope this is right

[Bacde]

no

we are lynching in OS/rofl today

there's a possibility that we are in lylo right now, and if thats the case then there is a guaranteed scum in OS/rofl

[Bacde]

I'll give you 1 guess as to my role

[Bacde]

(if you guessed VT you are correct)

[Bacde]

kingdom you've been calling me as scum since d1

your "case" is based on nothing and hasn't evolved since then

I know it sucks to hear this from the person that you most suspect, but you need to be objective and realize that I've been working hard for a town victory, and have actually performed many actions that I don't think are likely to come from scum

plus your mason partner and myself both organically townread each other on d1 coming from another game where we were both town (so we were used to each others' town play)

plus I'm gunsmith cleared

[Bacde]

as of right now I'm seeing a JS/rofl team actually

[Bacde]

that works out nicely since it means that OS is right about jacob

it means that smash was right about rofl

and it means that Jacob posted each of his buddies as "definitely town" or "definitely scum" in his very first reads list

it also helps explain why rofl led two really good lynches despite not really scumhunting this game

[Bacde]

it also means that rofl knew that there were 2 scum left and was just telling me that there was likely 1 scum left to ease my mind and pull off another mislynch

[Bacde]

I think I'm officially confirmed town now, so I really need to somehow make sure that it was a mistake that the scum left me alive until now.

First, I really want Bacde to claim. I didn't want to say this yesterday while there was still even a minor chance he could be night-killed, but he was the person who looked most like scum to me yesterday. I still think Rofl and Oversoul are likely town, so for me it's between Jacob and Bacde.

you were officially confirmed town yesterday or possibly the day before

[Bacde]

statistically, what are the chances that JS (as a townie) would be THIS uninvolved in the game, yet have 2 scum in his "definitely scum" list and 2 scum in his "definitely town" list

probably p < .05

the more probable option (if rofl flips scum) is that they are scumbuddies

[Bacde]

OH that also helps explain why Jacob is all "we are probably in lylo"

and roflcopter is all "we are definitely not in lylo there's 1 scum left"

different opinions = an attempt at distancing

[Bacde]

smash was also pretty convinced of a rofl/peta team, I should have listened to him more

[Bacde]

Okay we have 1/2 scum out of the three of us.

I'd go OverSoul, roflcopter personally.

Bacde it is probably lylo do you have anything extra to claim.

interesting that you suggest OS first before rofl

you have no reasoning to explain? we were wrong about Pere. You don't feel remorse, or frustration, or anything?

[Bacde]

OS I believe you now about the "outside information" that you claimed to have

honestly I think thats a dumb as fuck scum gambit to try to pull so it makes sense to me that you'd say it as town

[Bacde]

dude you can't tell me to change my playstyle just to please you thats so antitown seriously

I'm not telling you to change how you post in the game and its kind of insulting that you feel entitled enough to do the same for me

here's a link to a game I played in where someone was convinced of me being scum due to playstyle reasons (I was town, he was town, we lost, I even found the scum on the last day but it didn't matter): http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=26286

if there's two scum left, its NOT JS/Bacde since I'm town

and I don't want to be left in a situation where its rofl/kingdomaces/bacde at lylo if you are going to keep acting like this

if you are unwilling to even consider the possibility of me being town, then I REFUSE to lynch JS even though I think he's scum

if you continue to insist, I will vote for roflcopter because I think we are in lylo and casting a vote is a big deal

I have other experience with rofl in _ONGOING_ and yes, I think he's scum here

Your point about smashbard saying "omg bacde is the scum" in the QT is valid, but in the only other game I've played with smashbard we read each other as town (similarly to how we did in this game), but he ended up voting for and lynching me later in the game when paranoia got the best of him (I was town in that game, so was he). So smashbard has shown to me that he will suspect me towards the end, even if we had legitimate town boners for each other towards the beginning

Here's a link to that game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=23922

Also, your argument about masons/gunsmith being too much info for town might be valid--there MIGHT be a godfather. You haven't made ANY argument as to why you think

I

am a godfather though (other than the fact that I've been gunsmith-cleared). How has my play caused you to think I am a godfather?

If there is a godfather, its most likely to be rofl since if he is scum he has been bussing his team hardcore (and thus would look mega-town if he had an investigation). Have you ever played as a godfather before? (I have on epicmafia) Bussing is the rule as opposed to the exception

Also,

I know that I've had a scumread on you since Day 1. Nothing you've done has changed that.

this line is rich because you've never explained WHY you have a scumread on me since d1. Guess what, if there is no reason for you to have a scumread on me, then NO SHIT nothing I've done would change your scumread, since me just playing seems to be enough for you to scumread me

FINALLY, are you actually angry with me?

[Bacde]

I mean I'm willing to lynch Jacob but not if kingdomaces is going to keep being like this

basically, I want to hear your thoughts on who is more likely scum between rofl/me and why, and hopefully you can convince kingdomaces

plus if there is a GF then its rofl, so his flip would help kingdom see that I'm town

[Bacde]

if I were you and scum rofl, and we lynched JS who was scum, I'd kill OS over kingdom

I really don't think that is pants-on-head retarded

i DO think its pants-on-head retarded to think that there are 4 scum left, when 4/18 is less than 25%, which is the rule-of-thumb minimum cutoff for number of scum

[Bacde]

I'm thinking about the future not just today rofl

[Bacde]

and i think the game is going to end if we lynch right today, and even if we lynch wrong today there exists no scenario that will involve anyone even entertaining the idea of lynching you

this reassures me

but why are you so convinced that there is only 1 scum left and not 2

[Bacde]

gf is not supposed to be a gunsmith negative. if that exists in this setup and has had an effect on the game, it is a large mod error/oversight.

I agree with this tbh but we had the mod specifically say otherwise in this game

[Bacde]

OK, lemme think

4 scum in this game MAYBE could be balanced if there was both a mafia rolecop AND a mafia godfather/doctor type role that would show up innocent to the gunsmith

[Bacde]

kingdomaces this is why its so important for me that you can see that I'm town bc I need to bounce some ideas off you

I really am suspicious of both rofl/OS insisting that there is only 1 scum left and I want to know if thats legitimate or not

[Bacde]

You also have to factor in the fact that Vigs are more likely to kill town (like it did) and the fact that it would be negative utility before it even got the chance to kill although I am still not sure how the delayed aspect worked to wind-up's role

I think it was just he couldn't use his power until d3 or something

[Bacde]

and again

look at these numbers

, you're telling yourself that an 18 player game has five mafia. the 19 player game had five mafia, one of which was a traitor, and that was seen as scum sided. the 21 player game had five mafia and one of them was a traitor. you think there are five full mafia in this game. i think you're nuts.

ok this is a good argument

[Bacde]

smash is town
konowa is town

idk how to read PV
same with NS

lets lynch JS.

If you had managed to make that rhyme I'd of agreed with you.
But you didn't so I'm sad.

refrigerator?

I like to call in a reventator...
Sash it totally works)

I mean this exchange is pretty shitty and reeks of being a team

[Bacde]

Bodyguard?

konowa was a bg, read up

[Bacde]

The gunsmith would get a guility on:

Day-Vig, Bodyguard and the Mafia.

With 3 Goons and a Godfather thats 40% of investigations as false postivies, do you really think thats likely.

I could see a Godfather with 5 scum but not 4.

Also OS is your case that I am amazingly good and amazingly bad at the same time because that is what it seems to me.

@Bacde: How does that work as a team. Please do explain.

nope nope nope nope nope nope

nope

nope

nope

no no no no nope noe nope nope nope nope nopen no

NO

this post makes NO sense

yes you are technically using logic to back up your assertions but you are SO FOCUSED on tiny details that you are missing out on the bigger logic of the whole picture

how does it make MORE sense to have more scum if there is a GF rather than less?

that assertion alone is ridiculous and obviously scum-motivated

I guess there's no way we lynch anyone besides JS

[Bacde]

This post here:

Hey guys, so my role PM says that I am

Mafia

, and I intend on winning this game, so if you could point me to the nearest ML wagon I'd love to hop on and get this game finished

Was a parody of this post here:

Hi, everyone!

My role PM says that

I am a Paranoid Gun Owner

, and that if I get targeted with an action at Day or Night the player targeting me dies. I asked the mod whether this happened if the player who targeted me is Mafia, and he said everyone who uses an ability on me dies, even if they kill me with their action.

I think I'll probably get targeted by Town a lot more than Mafia, so I'm claiming now. (I'm an alt of a player like that.)

Anyway,

vote: TheTrollie

.

and this post here was just a joke using obviously-false logic:

whew I was afraid people might read into my claim

luckily, mafia ALWAYS lie and thus by saying I am mafia, if I were mafia I'd be lying thus I'd be town

logically, I am now confirmed town

So, keep talking guys but I'm gonna choose the lynch for today

HOWEVER I want to say that now it makes a lot more sense to me why you had a scumread on me on d1 that you never dropped. I guess to read me just look at my play this game, as opposed to my opening posts which I made for fun (and were not "town" or "scum" motivated, just fun motivated)

[Bacde]

	GF	No GF
4 scum	40%	33%
5 scum	33%	28%

Tag fail.

it looks like there is a higher chance of having a GF if there are 4 scum instead of 5

[Bacde]

why are you using the % of a false positive as a measure of the likelihood of that setup existing rather than looking at previous games and seeing either:

1) How many setups had 4 or 5 people and had a GF (using past data)

OR

2) Consider balance and think about whether its more balanced to place a GF w/ 4 scum or w/ 5 scum (balance intuition)

[Bacde]

post to reaffirm OS

[Bacde]

just showing you that I'm not a part of a quickhammer committee

[Bacde]

me too we are likely not a team me and roflcopter

I will probably end up voting JS though

[Bacde]

Then it is settled. Bacde/Rofl is not a team meaning Jacob is either solo, or on a scum team with one of Oversoul/Bacde/Rofl

I know he isn't on a team with me because I am town, meaning if Jacob is on a team it is between Bacde/Rofl which I hope is not the case because then that means I would be going to 3p LyLo and I never want to go back there again or have that pressure to choose correctly.

Please for the love of god just be solo and a godfather it would make everything so much easier

if we go to 3p lylo I'd honestly rather have you alive than kingdom so hey

[Bacde]

lol cmon dude you aren't hammered

and I'm pretty sure you know that

where are you kingdomaces?

[Bacde]

if we lose and you take full responsibility

then you have to promise to take full responsibility if we win, too

like seriously I'ma be giving you kudos and stuff

hammer away man

[Bacde]

yeah man its just us

we are the clear town

if you want to lynch someone else, we have 100% control to do that

I think the maf is rofl/JS so I'm cool w/ this

if we only have 1 maf, then maybe its OS? shit man i don't want to think about that

[Bacde]

well I'm not as clear as you but you get the idea

[Bacde]

The only way that there's two mafia that aren't Jacob at this point is if the team is Rofl/Oversoul. I'm going to double ISO them to make sure, but otherwise the only reason not to is if the person who inevitably gets killed would want to say more things, and I think the recent activity is proof that that's not the case.

ISO'ing now.

I don't think that the team is Rofl/Oversoul tbh

so you can blame me just as much for this lynch if we are wrong

in fact, you can take all the credit if we are right

and I'll take all the blame if we are wrong

how does that sound?

[Bacde]

I dunno man I just have reservations probably for similar reasons that you do

I don't like feeling pressured to hammer and I wanted to check in with someone who I know is town just to bounce some ideas off of

I'm not exactly "eager" even though I think JS is probably scum

[Bacde]

hell i might even hammer if i work up the nerve

[Bacde]

ugh is there 1 scum player out there who doesn't troll

[Bacde]

OH SNAPS ITS NOT OVER!!!

I was so worried that the "its over" meant that you two were scum together and that it was endgame (I was actually confused why we were having a nightphase)

ok its time to really talk this one out

[Bacde]

bacde why have you gotten more timid with every passing day

have I?

[Bacde]

A second question:

If i have been getting more timid each passing day, is that a scumtell?

[Bacde]

ok, how have I been getting more timid?

iirc I got pretty upset w/ Kingdomaces yesterday and forced him to change his mind about me in a very-untimid fashion

[Bacde]

really? I don't really remember ever leading that much in this game

[Bacde]

You're changing the subject.

I want to see if your thoughts are real or if you are just deciding to try to get me lynched

[Bacde]

i mean with your vote and your lynch-leading-ness

really? I don't really remember ever leading that much in this game

do you have a response to this?

[Bacde]

Bacde-town
Bacde-scum

This looks more like Bacde town tbh

<3 u HD

why would I be more likely to make this post as scum rather than as town?

IMO its not likely for scum to directly buddy their partners, its a large reason of why I didn't want you lynched after peta flipped scum

but you seem to think its likely

[Bacde]

Bacde-town
Bacde-scum

This looks more like Bacde town tbh

<3 u HD

why would I be more likely to make this post as scum rather than as town?

IMO its not likely for scum to directly buddy their partners, its a large reason of why I didn't want you lynched after peta flipped scum

but you seem to think its likely

because you have big brass balls and at this stage in the game you were letting them swing wildly

I don't think this answer adequately addresses the question tbh

I also noticed you mentioned that you wanted me lynched early game, which is true

But do you remember how a large part of that was you associating me with smashbard? I recall you saying that there was an "obv chainsaw defense" on the first page of your posting

You also made an association case on Peregrine for the way he interacted w/ HD, but that ended up being incorrect. Why do you think this association case is correct?

[Bacde]

i mean with your vote and your lynch-leading-ness

really? I don't really remember ever leading that much in this game

do you have a response to this?

lynch-leading might not be the right term but you had a certain gusto in the early game that has utterly disappeared, you seemed to just accept lynches since peta's lynch, you've been much more concerned with things like outlandish endgame scenarios ("what if its rolf/kingdom/bacde!") while everyone else actually seemed to think this game would never reach 3 man lylo.

yeah mislynch after mislynch will take the gusto out of me

but it doesn't seem to phase you

why?

[Bacde]

Also I would not be surprised if Oversoul is scum, Oversoul replaced Go, right? Go "nabbing" MrZepher as scum on page 1 or two looked suspicious as hell

no.

let me just stop you now before you even begin down that road

OS, why did you make this post in this manner?

At the time, i thought you were crumbing a protective role or something

[Bacde]

I'm not gonna lie I went into this day thinking it was rofl but the dialogue this last page is making me uncertain and I am second guessing myself all over

I fucking hate being in 3P LyLo and of course, out of the like 5 or 4 times in 3P LyLo, this will be the third in the Hell Hole known as New York.

The innocent on Bacde really fucking screws with me but I am standing behind my belief that the last scum has to be godfather or otherwise investigation immune for any semblance of balance imo but that only adds into more second guessing and questioning myself

Rofl, why are you concerned with the way I acted towards being investigated with Zone?

I was thinking it was rofl too coming into today too

Why does the dialogue this last page make you uncertain? I was under the impression I was making really good points

[Bacde]

Also I would not be surprised if Oversoul is scum, Oversoul replaced Go, right? Go "nabbing" MrZepher as scum on page 1 or two looked suspicious as hell

no.

let me just stop you now before you even begin down that road

OS, why did you make this post in this manner?

At the time, i thought you were crumbing a protective role or something

no, I don't crumb investigative roles like that

It was me saying 1) if you go into speculation about my predecessor I will not comment on it, 2) that type of speculation is especially reaching, and 3) I am town in a very blunt manner

About why I thought it was rofl and now I am having second thoughts? I don't know he just seems genuine from his tone and the questions he is asking here that makes me doubt

I've had horrible luck in going back and trying to read people in LyLo so I am just going how I feel off impressions of peopel and so far it is worked well especially in determing players who aren't exactly always present and don't have as much content as others

so you feel his aggressive tone is genuine despite some of his points being invalid (such as me being more "timid" in the past few days)?

[Bacde]

He just doesn't seem genuine to me at all esp. with how he has avoided answering my tougher questions

[Bacde]

well maybe he isn't purposely avoiding my questions since he hasn't posted since the Q's

[Bacde]

After roflcopter answers my questions I'ma go into aggressive mode since I've got a clincher argument as to why I'm town and I feel pretty confident about it

[Bacde]

Bacde I kinda agree with rofl's sentiments about being wrong. It doesn't mean that you are automatically scum. I was wrong about Zone, I was wrong about Konowa, I was wrong about Zepher, and I was REALLY wrong about Jacob
Why are you only going after him over those things?

I've been wrong a lot too this game

I was wrong about Zone, and was wrong about NS, and was wrong about Peregrine

I was also wrong about the number of scum left, I thought there would be 5

Its how he responds to my question that makes this important--I'm scumhunting

and tbh rofl's answer really does sound townie to me, you both do right now

so whoever of you is scum, really gj

but I've got (what I think) is a clincher argument for why I'm town and who I think is the scum

[Bacde]

Ok so first of all, I want to say that I think the last scum is a godfather

I think this for a couple reasons:

1) Balance. With 4 scum, thats less than 25% of the town. Considering that the town was somewhat strong with informative/protective roles (with daymasons, a gunsmith, a bodyguard, and a jailkeeper), which really would screw over the scum unless they had roles to counteract that. The rolecop was a part of it, but would a rolecop + 3 goons be balanced against that much town power? Probably not

2) The mod had an answer as to whether or not a godfather would investigate as w/ a gun or w/o a gun, and the mod posted it in the thread. What really makes this argument convincing, however, is that the mod answered in a non-standard fashion. I'm pretty sure that generally godfather's investigate as "with a gun". The fact that the mod would clarify a nonstandard aspect of a role makes me believe that he already had an answer to the question prepared because the role was in the game.

[Bacde]

Ok so I've got two things that I think will greatly improve the chances of finding me to be town.

1) On day 3, I was voting for Nobody Special. The two wagons built up to L-1, and were both competing with each other almost all the way to deadline. Now I want to emphasize here that OS was voting for NS, while roflcopter was voting for HD. Neither of these votes are inherently scummy or townie. I was voting for NS. However, right before deadline, I moved my vote to HD. This is a move I can't imagine making if I were scum. If I were scum, I would have kept my vote on NS, and just stopped posting. I think this move is a major towntell. Here is the VC from right after that move:

RANDOM FACT:

MattP's back so he can do some marvelous flavor after the flip now! Yay!

Votecount

Nobody Special -

6

^[L-2] Oversoul, ZONEACE, ActionDan, Smashbard, Human Destroyer

HumanDestroyer -

8

^[L-0] Dramonic, petapan, PeregrineV, roflcopte, wind-up, Nobody Special, JacobSavage, Bacde

ActionDan -

1

[L-7]

KingdomAces

NOT VOTING: nada

PRODS FOR: nope

WITH [14] ALIVE IT TOOK [8] TO LYNCH

Human Destroyer was Lynched. He was a

Mafia RoleCop

EVERYONE SHUT UP AND WAIT FOR MATTP/DR. PRODUCER - I CAN'T LOCK THE THREAD

2) Peta started pushing on me right before he was outted as w/ a gun. After lynching two of his teammates, I can't imagine him gunning for his last teammate.

bacde is not posting good

its probably bacde or oversoul and he saw his partner was throwing him under the bus and gave up

[Bacde]

Ok, now for why I think roflcopter is scum, and not just scum but a godfather.

1) The way a godfather is supposed to play. On Epicmafia there are TONS of setups that have godfathers. This has given me a lot of experience in playing as one. As a godfather, it is in your best interest to bus often. As you are investigation immune, if you bus AND get investigated you can build up a RIDICULOUS amount of town cred and basically ride the gravy train to victory. roflcopter's play correlates with optimal godfather play.

2) Smashbard died first between the 3 gunsmith clears (I realize that the clear doesn't guarantee that I'm town but walk with me here). Though Smashbard WOULD make sense to kill over KingdomAces as he was more active and generally recognized by the town as protown, he also was the strongest proponent of linking petapan's and roflcopter's alignments. I don't think the choice to kill him first was a coincidence.

3) Petapan pushed on me AND on OS, AND defended roflcopter

bacde is not posting good

its probably bacde or oversoul and he saw his partner was throwing him under the bus and gave up

I mean, a ZONEACE lynch does sound tempting but I'm super skeptical of roflcopter right now

his scumgame from the last time i played with him was super weak, he pushed retarded reads and avoided bussing there's nothing to be skeptical of

4) OS asked to NOT be investigated, which is a HUGE not-GF tell.

5) roflcopter seems to have trouble keeping his thoughts straight:

and i think the game is going to end if we lynch right today, and even if we lynch wrong today there exists no scenario that will involve anyone even entertaining the idea of lynching you

This post indicates to me that if roflcopter was keeping a smooth train of thought, he would be more suspicious of OS right now. Yet I had previously expressed suspicion about roflcopter, so as scum it would be more beneficial for him to instead try to spread suspicion onto me, rather than continue along that train of thought.

And finally, something subjective

This post here:

gf is not supposed to be a gunsmith negative. if that exists in this setup and has had an effect on the game, it is a large mod error/oversight.

Sounds like its rofl trying to force a not-GF tell. It is not as genuine as OS's asking to not be investigated.

[Bacde]

And because I really doubt that either of you are going to present a case that will convince me more than the one I just made

VOTE: roflcopter

[Bacde]

A few minor notes:

1) The way that Go attacked both zepher and HD felt legitimate, eg not like a bus. He had solid reasoning for scumreading them both. Also, it read as genuine because (as I think actiondan said "tempers were flared")

2) Roflcopter threw a softball question at peta and accepted his answer fullheartedly:

zomg thanks for saving me konowa
(i'll read the dead thread soon enough to find out if you really did)

vote: human destroyer

@peta, at the end of day one, why did you not sheep me onto zepher, as promised?

i would have but i think it wasn't viable at the time i wasn't paying a lot of attention

plus greygnarl pissed me off

basically i'm shit this game and i'm going to be taking a long break after this

tbh i thought konowa was scum going into today because his read on zepher disappeared yesterday

more hd votes

peta is town (read reaffirmed)

3) Roflcopter hasn't really been explaining his reads that well. Explaining the reasoning behind reads is one of the hardest things to do as scum.

[Bacde]

holy shit this is a terrible defense. "you made an association case on peregrine and he flipped town therefore all association cases are wrong" is pretty much what you are saying. i was also wrong about jacob, and about actiondan, and about smashbard early in the game, and i was crazy wrong about peta. so should i just stop playing mafia because i was wrong so much? or could it just be that i'm *town* so i get things wrong sometimes and when that happens all i can do is come back the next day and try to get it right this time? my being wrong about peregrine-hd interaction literally has zero bearing on whether or not i'm right about hd-bacde interactions.

See, roflcopter, that post wasn't a defense. It was me asking for your thoughts. I wanted to understand them, because I'm scumhunting.

I've been wrong this game too.

But I haven't been overdefensive when someone asks me a simple question.

[Bacde]

op my bad rofl

damn I was proud of my case too

[Bacde]

lol wow the scum did a great d1 gambit

[Bacde]

Wow rofl I thought you-peta was a scum/town interaction at first but then the way that you seemed to think that me saying <3 u HD was a scum-scum interaction made me think that you thought scum-buddying was common, which made me think that you were engaging in scum-buddying

[Bacde]

this game was poorly run

understatement of the year

I got really frustrated with the length of night phases

[Bacde]

my bad team

i let you all down

:/

[Bacde]

^^I agree

made me sad to see you slowly get paranoid of me

wasn't surprised tho

[Bacde]

lets hydraaa

[Bacde]

no! PM it to me