Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[onion]

VOTE: Derangement

How dare you vote for a member of the Amaryllidaceae family! Shun! SHUN!

[onion]

we're really going to need a method to this madness, otherwise terrible stuff is surely going to happen. I'd prefer to do it 'I am onion, he is Bubs' but if that's unacceptable we could totally do something else like giving someone a dumb nickname such as 'i am onion, he is stupidpants'. So long as we pick a method early and stick to it without changing, we might stand a chance.

[onion]

Ok back now and all caught up. I had tons of time last week when i signed up for this game, and i'll have tons of time next week, but this week was the amazing random 4 days off in a row, go vacation with girlfriend and not play mafia week. So that happened, but now i'm back, good to go, ready to rock and chomping at the bit, and other phrases.

I've made my game notes not suck so i'll be able to post something useful as soon as a read through them a few times. Probably somthing about Tripod being an anti-town terrible player and Equinox and Bubs being pretty great. I think i'll work under the assumption that Tripod isn't scum and just terrible-town, and see what that gets me. If it doesn't get me much then i'll swap to tripod being scum and try again.

Useful content to follow soon.

[onion]

"The Tripod Derphammer Case"
Tripod, very early in the game, placed Llama at L-1 (034) and sarcastically wanted to lynch him (035), which would have gone very poorly for the town because there's no reason to lynch so early (as derangement said in 038). He then unvoted Llama (050) only to vote him again later (076) and sarcastically push to lynch again (084).

"The Cogito List Case"
Cogito was not an active player apparently, and the scum would have NK'd someone they knew, thus scum ought to be someone who played with Cogito (017), and that list is: CBD, GIF, Llama, Tripod. I've removed Equinox from this list because he posted the list. GIF doubted the list (018).

I really like everything Derangement and Bubs have posted. They are being useful to the town, and helping us get good reads on them. This is Pro-town and should be encouraged. I really don't like Tripod's playstyle, and i believe he is hurting the town with his antics. This should be discouraged.

So for a second, let us think that Tripod is just a really bad towny. There he is drawing the spotlight, getting all the suspicions and all that. Scum would gravitate to this and try to get on board. Llama saw this right when it happened and FOS'd Tripod (047, 072) and then hopped on when it got rolling (100). Bubs is also on Tripod (062) and stated his suspicions based on Tripod's vote against Llama.

Sidenote: Bubs voted Prawn (026) because he voted Llama, and he voted Tripod (062) because he voted Llama. >_>

So i guess i'd like to hear more from Llama, because he's got some cases against him, and we can use his alignment to help us understand Tripod. They are very probably not the same alignment.

Sidenote: The Llamawagon was CBD, Telltale, Equinox, Prawn, Tripod.

So Llama, can you rephrase and repeat your reasons for currently voting for Tripod please? Can you also repeat your thought process that caused you to vote and then unvote Gif?

[onion]

oye that was my info dump and getting up to speed from being 6 pages behind. it sure does contain Information because that's what i'm collecting. I stuck it all in there in an easy to read and understand format so i can use it more later. its called collecting information.

And i did analyse, but i'd like to do much more. I think that Llama and Tripod don't share an alignment, and so if we end up lynching one a week from now, it'll help us with the other. Tripod is hella anti-town, but his no fucks given attitude might indicate town. Other people who have played with him before seem to indicate that he plays this way when town, so i don't really know. Llama is the other half this argument, and he's kinda hard to read. He saw Tripod shenanigans coming, FOS'd him, then voted for him later. So i've asked him about it. Maybe he'll say something scummy and i'll get a lead on him, or maybe he won't and i'll end up thinking Tripod is the scum instead of him. we'll just have to see.

I suppose the opinion is 'either llama or tripod are scum but not both.' Llama was on the cogito list, so there's that too. I also stated that i got a townread on Bubs. but that doesn't mean i'll always have that read on him. So i left myself a remeinder about something fishy about him. He's been voting for people who vote for Llama. If llama turns out to be scum, its something worth looking at again in a few days.

[onion]

question where's the question? which questions are directed at me? I'm pretty sure i've stated my read, its that either llama or tripod is a scum, but not both. I don't think Bubs is scum, or Derangement. I don't have much of a read on much of the others, but that'll happen at some point i'm sure. I'll very probably vote for either Tripod or Llama after llama responds.

[onion]

Llama where are you? hello? please to answer my questions so i can vote for you or not.

onion 131
"So Llama, can you rephrase and repeat your reasons for currently voting for Tripod please? Can you also repeat your thought process that caused you to vote and then unvote Gif?"

Derangement 141 (paraphrased)
“Why would you remove Equinox from Equinox’s list?”
“What do you think of Bub’s alignment?”

Equinox didn't have to post that list, and he posted it anyway even though he was on it. he didn't even defend himself being on the list, it was just data. data is great. Equinox did a pro-town thing posting the list, and we all know that equinox was on it, and its even named after him. I removed him from the list because i feel like if he were scum he'd either not have posted it, or removed himself from it, or defended himself from his own list in his post. he did none of these things, he's probably not the 1 scum on the list.

I think bubs plays pretty pro-town. he's useful to keep around, and his straight forward playstyle would make him easier to catch if he were scum. We ought not lynch him under current situations because he's helping the town regardless of alignment. He's also mildly town.

Equinox 173 (paraphrased)
"Why are Tripod and Llama different alignments?"
"What about the Cogito List Case?"
"Why is Bub's fishy?"
"the other one"

If both Tripod and Llama were scum, tripod placing him at L-1 would have been safe because they know no scum would derphammer it. If a townie derphammered it, they'd lynch the townie next day and trade 1 for 1, which is a losing tactic for scum. It wouldn't even produce towncred for Tripod, it'd be just useless. So they are probably not both scum.

If both were town, then the scum are just loving this, and at least one would totally be on the wagon.

Sidenote: The Llamawagon was CBD(004), Telltale(016), Equinox(017), Prawn(025), Tripod(034).

The suspicious slots on the Llamawagon are held by CBD, Telltale and Equinox. I think Equinox is townish, but the other two are entirely reasonable possible-scum. I got some things to say about CBD in any case (see below).

The Cogito List Case will very probably remain interesting until at least 1 person on it dies. I really like the way Equinox laid it out for us, and there really probably is a scum to be found there. We shouldn't just start at the top and lynch downward, but anyone on the list is suspicious because they are on the list.

Bubs is fishy but not very scummy. I love vote patterns and vote analysis, and finding that little tidbit was pretty fun. I don't know if it means anything, but if llama flipped scum and prawn or tripod flip town, or if llama flips powerrole, it might add meaning to this thing.

ok and now the other one... its um "What do you think of the people who have voiced disagreement with the case against LlamaFluff?”

I'm a little shaky on what the case against Llama actually is. I know what my case against him is, but nobody's else has really made it plain why they were voting for him. CBD and Telltale's votes were RVS, Equinox gave meta+bad math reasons which better damn well be tongue in cheek or he should go back and take high school statistics again. Prawn provided no reasons what so ever, and Tripod has stated plenty that it's a pressure vote or a lolvote depending on how anti-town he feels at the moment.

My case against Llama is that 1, his process of vote GIF, FOS Tripod (047), GIF says good things about Llama (079, 080), then Llama moves his vote to Tripod, whom he FOS'd (100) seems rather planned out. Its just got an evil scum plan vibe to it. And 2, he's on the Cogito List.

So the question is what do i think about the people who have voiced disagreements with this? I'm having a bit of a hard time figuring out who you are referring to. Nobody has obviously defended llama. Tripod 55 likes his idgaf attitude, which Tripod would like, because he's anti-town, and thus a poor defense. GIF praises Llama's bias in 79 and 80, but that doesn't have anything to do with the cases either.

So yeah, you're gonna have to help me answer your question by pointing out who disagreed with the case. sorry.

In 166, CBD says "You(TellTale) should tell us your reads on everyone." and yeah no you shouldn't. Lists of reads are great fuel for scum and not all that helpful for town. Its great to be like 'top 2 bottom 2' and all that, because its important that we know what you're up to, but complete lists are pretty much 'NK people in this order' lists, which isn't something i want the scum to know. Plus they provide plenty of un-useful nitpicking about why mildly-scummy person A is above mildly-scummy person B, instead of discussing whoever's actually at the top or bottom. Lists are bad. bad bad lists.

Also in 142, CBD is like ima just hop on this wagon if you don't mind for no reason. right in the good ol suspicious #3 seat. He was on the Llamawagon as well, granted in a less suspicious seat. Also also, as Bub's pointed out in 099, CBD is kinda lacking in useful content.

CBD might be scum.

[onion]

oh wow, even all my notes say CBD sorry about that. corrected. And the suspicious slots in a bandwagon are the middle ones, not the first or the hammer. Prawn is in the suspicious slot, not you. I got it right in the second statement though, "Also in 142, CDB is like ima just hop on this wagon if you don't mind for no reason. right in the good ol suspicious #3 seat. He was on the Llamawagon as well, granted in a less suspicious seat (seat 1)."

[onion]

Also my drunk housemate shambled in, glanced at the list of players for this game and identified the scum as Futan, LlamaFluff and GuyInFreezer. I'm pretty sure he's never even played mafia, but i thought it was funny and i'll buy him alcohol if it turns out he was right.

[onion]

you are on the wagon, which is suspicious, but you are in one of the least suspicious seats of the wagon. Why don't you address some pointier points instead.

Do you disagree that lists are good for scum and bad for town?

And in 142 you flat out say that you haven't read the thread yet, but you're just going to bandwagon for bandwagon's sake. Don't you think that that sort of thing is harmful to the town?

[onion]

sure as i said, Equinox's List isn't a 100% absolutely true list of all scum ever, its just a hint. But because Equinox posted Equinox's List and Equinox is ON Equinox's List, i wouldn't consider Equinox to be suspicious because he's on Euinox's List, but i would consider everyone else on Equinox's List suspicious because they are on Equinox's List.

i'm sure that made perfect sense. lets try again. Everyone on the list is suspicious because they are people who would have killed Cogito if they are scum. Equinox posted the list. Equinox might be suspicious due to other things, but he's not suspicious from the List, or his town-cred for posting the list with his name on it cancels out his scum-cred for being on the list and it comes out null.

Or to put it even simpler, The list casts suspicion on everyone on the list except Equinox, because he posted it.

[onion]

no llama, i want you to write a paragraph or two rephrasing what you think. i want you to do this because i have a hard time understanding clearly your previous statements and so i want you to put them right here and nice in the light of day so to make it easier on all of us.

onion 131 (ish)
Can you rephrase and repeat your reasons for currently voting for Tripod please? Can you also rephrase repeat your thought process that caused you to vote and then unvote GIF in post 047 and 100. You can quote yourself sure, but please include commentary on your quotes to help me understand your thought processes.

Also GIF, you quoted me in your cursed quotestripping but i don't understand what you are asking me.

Also Also, i was totally confused about llamafluff and derangement are talking about in my 181 post and i realize that you might be reading it as a breadcrumb or something. it really isn't that, it really is a drunk housemate shenanigan. it really happened and doesn't have anything to do with any power role anyone may or may not have. I mean sure its nice to have people thing i'm town, but yall misinterpreting this is very close to me lying to the town, which isn't pro-town. so yeah. Sorry for the confusion, that isn't the breadcrumb you are looking for.

[onion]

Hello Marquis. Some people (me, maybe bubs) are lurk-reading you, but you can fix that by catching up and being active and useful. please do that.

I'm sorry about the drunken housemate thing. i didn't know it would confuse the game, and when i did i tried to stop it but its just confusing the game anyway. sorry. but at least apparnelty it helped Tripod get a townread on Llama i think? which is kinda strange i think? being that one of them is very probably scum i think? either town-Tripod is continuing his anti-town antics or scum-Tripod is buddying up with town-Llama to avoid the lynch that kinda sorta looked like was heading towards Llama anyway? i dunno.

and speaking of llama, please don't just not answer my questions. answer them or tell me you are not going to answer them. one of the two.

@bubs, while the mafia playing crowd consists of older-than-average-internet-user individuals, i bet nobody knows what homestar runner is. it even updated like 6 months ago too!

I'm not really up with all this html blocking code stuff, and it seems like adding hotlinks to every post number i use would be a lot of work, but i'll try it next big post and see if it isn't the most annoying thing ever. I think that most people don't look up the posts i'm talking about very often, and so hotlinking them might very well be a waste of time. we'll see.

You and Derangement post posts that are rich in information. You respond directly to questions and seem to express yourselves in a method i find easy to understand, unlike llama who i can't seem to understand what he means when he types stuff. Providing the town with easy to use information is pro-town. It helps the town catch scum even if its the scum who are being pro-town. yall probably already know all this being veteran players and all but

Pro-town actions are ones that make the actor easier to catch if they are scum. They involve expressing your suspicious and showing how they evolve over time, and what evidence convinced you to change your mind. They also involve avoiding things that are mathematically bad for the town such as voting during MyLo and stuff like that.

Anti-town actions are the other ones. Things that confuse everyone, make it harder to scumhunt, and make you harder to catch if you are scum. Stuff like lurking. Many policy lynches are designed to discourage anti-town play and force the scum to be pro-town and easier to catch. I'm not sure that policy lynches actually do that, but its probably their intention.

Note that pro-town doesn't mean town and anti-town doesn't mean scum, it is just a method of defining how a player plays. Tripod plays anti-town and everything might get fucked up because of him, but he might be town and we probably shouldn't policy lynch him for his antics because at least he's active. What i'm trying to say is anti-towns aren't always scum. they are just harder to catch when they are scum, and so should be beaten with a giant stick until they behave.

I agree with Derangement's 133 post. It is entirely possible that some people have town and scum tells that come out over multiple games, and that it might be possible to use them to your advantage in a current game. However, the more they are used the less likely they are to keep working. Its probably bad practice to rely on them too heavily, but hey a clue is a clue.

Also, yes please everyone, explain your votes in the post that contains the vote. its pro-town, pyo.

PS AND HAY YOU GIF EXPLAIN YOUR UNVOTE RIGHT NOW YOUNG MAN. geez do you even read the thread?

[onion]

I hope you don't mind me using that format ChannelDelibird. It looks like a really good way to format a post where you talk about several different things but you want to avoid scaring everyone with a great wall of text.

one might say you were
._.
._.>o-o
o-o
channeling the delibird.

[onion]

so what you are saying is that you placed your vote on GIF in 047 entirely because of him doubting Equinox's List in 018? If that's the case, why were you also ready to vote for Tripod. What suspicions of him did you hold at the time?

And then Tripod's antics happened and you voted for him in 100. Did you stop scumreading GIF? If so, what made you think he wasn't scum anymore? You explained plenty about why Tripod is scummy, but what about GIF? please don't avoid the question.

Also, you've kept that vote on Tripod ever since. Do you still think he's scum? Or are you just backing the counterwagon to yours? what are your current thoughts about GIF?

look post links! they aren't so bad once i got the hang of em. also yall need to go play Besiege. its in early beta but has lots of satisfying destruction to enjoy. i made a machine that can complete every level without modifications!

[onion]

Llama, the question was what suspicions did you have of him AT THE TIME. i know Tripod is scummy as fuck now, but mind you that you indicated your willingness to vote for Tripod in 047, BEFORE most of his anti-town shenanigans. What were your reasons at the time?

"i never quoted you"
oh hrm maybe not. its very difficult to understand what you are asking because your posts are slavered in fuzzy logic and question evading. this is the reason i want you to rephrase things for me because they really just didn't mean anything the first time. In 194[post] you quote Derangement's [post=141]141 which is asking me a question (sarcastically?) followed by a question mark. Is this you asking me to answer this question, or is this you asking Derangement why or what he means about this question? I fully explained my reasoning back in

[onion]

oh wow that last post really didn't work out well at all. sorry about that. i think i'll just do the whole thing over again.

Llama, the question was what suspicions did you have of him AT THE TIME. i know Tripod is scummy as fuck now, but mind you that you indicated your willingness to vote for Tripod in 047, BEFORE most of his anti-town shenanigans. What were your reasons at the time?

"i never quoted you"
oh hrm maybe not. its very difficult to understand what you are asking because your posts are slavered in fuzzy logic and question evading. this is the reason i want you to rephrase things for me because they really just didn't mean anything the first time. In 194 you quote Derangement's 141 which is asking me a question (sarcastically?) followed by a question mark. Is this you asking me to answer this question, or is this you asking Derangement why or what he means about this question? I fully explained my reasoning back in 175. Please be more specific with your questions.

now on to new things! GIF, if you REALLLLLYYYY don't think Llama is scum, i'd sure like to know why. how about some reasons for those votes while you are at it? you are hurting the town by not explaining yourself. The same goes for you TellTale. you be like 'i got these 3 suspicions' that's nice, but tell us why you suspect them. build cases, present evidence, ya know, be useful and stuff.

I'm about ready to vote for Llama i think.

[onion]

so GIF thinks i should already know why he thinks Llama is town for some reason. i suppose its up to me to figure it out.

ah so WAYYYYY BAck here in 080 you say something about Llama. You are talking about an apparent bias in his posts that flavors town as 'smart' and scum as 'dumb', and use this as a reason to town-read him. Can you provide evidence proving this bias existed? i'm not seeing anything like it in the Llamaquote you provided. so thus we return to the question at hand, unanswered.

GIF, WHY DO YOU THINK LLAMA IS TOWN? please don't link me to your previous posts because they have proven to be useless and devoid of content. please instead write a paragraph or two about it right here right now, possibly with post numbers supporting your theory. build a case, show us why it is you believe what you believe.

-=-

Lurkers annoy me greatly. day 1's are a great time to lynch all lurkers because it improves the rest of the game, and there's no information day 1 anyway, so they are just as likely to be scum as anyone else. I'm not sure our N0 start changes this. please don't lurk.

As town, it is to our benefit to force an environment in which all players act pro-town. Pro-town players express their ideas and post them in easy to use formats. They show how their suspicions change slowly over time and what changed their suspicions. They vote for people these suspicions point at. This is a healthy way to play as town, and so town should want to do it anyway. Scum don't want to play this way, because it limits their ability to get away with bullshit. By forcing them to play pro-town, it makes it easier to recognize their bullshit, and thus easier to catch.

I've been in enough games to know that there are just some idiot anti-town losers out there who choose to play anti-town regardless of alignment and continuously fuck the town over because they are idiots. We can't really get rid of them, and they are too dumb to learn to play better, and lynching them is only a short term solution because they'll just show up in the next game. Scummy actions are a subset of anti-town actions. Idiots who happen to be town and play anti-town perform, at least in hindsight, non-scummy anti-town actions. it is often hard to tell the difference though.

I'm not at all convinced that Tripod is just really terrible town and not scum, but i feel that lynching Llama would give us more information about Tripod than lynching Tripod would give us information on Llama. Llamascum would go a long way towards town-reading Tripod, at which point i'd be happy to minimize his harmful effects by ignoring him. it would prove him terrible but harmless, which is a big improvement.

Llamatown would cast even more suspicion than we already have on Tripod, and i could easily see me voting for him the next day because of it. it would show that he really is both idiotic and dangerous, having L-1'd a townie with a possible power role on page 2.

It also happens that Llama is pretty damn scummy. He keeps making these asserations that he's answered questions when he really hasn't. He doesn't justify his arguments and has seemingly random suspicions and town-reads. he's blendy and blendy is bad.

However, if we swapped over and tried to lynch Tripod to get information on Llama, it wouldn't work as well i don't think. Sure scum-Tripod would clear Llama of most suspicions, but town-Tripod wouldn't do anything.

-=-

Unvote: Derangement

because it was a RVS vote that didn't mean anything.

Vote: Llama

because he's on the Cogito List, because lynching him will provide valuable information about Tripod, and because he avoid justifying himself until severely pressed, and even then does so minimally, because he's blendy, and because llamas make terrible war mounts.

[onion]

GIF, you flat out say in 079 that that post is full of negative things about llama, reasons why he looks scummy, and then you say

Even though I say negative things like this, I don't think you're scum. Granted I've never seen your scumgame but I have seen you being biased like this as town. And my gut leans town anyway. I think you're reaching on UT.

which is you saying you think he isn't scum, not explaining why you think he isn't scum. you even disclaim it as probably gut which is still not a reason. this is the reason i'm asking you to explain it because you HAVE NEVER EXPLAINED IT. so instead of being useless, how about putting some effort into this game and making your reasons known.

[onion]

i am not recommending a chain lynch in all situations, only half of them. If Llama flipped scum, it would bonify Tripod and we shouldn't lynch him probably ever. If Llama flipped town, it would be another strike against Tripod and, added to other cases, might mean we lynch him, or we might not. it would be compelling in comparison to what we have right now at least, but who knows what might crop up between now and then.

However, doing it the other way around doesn't work anywhere near as well. If tripod flipped scum then sure it would bonify Llama, but if Tripod flipped town, that wouldn't tell us much about Llama. So a towny L-1'd someone on page 2. what does that say about llama? not much. that's why we should do it in the other direction.

Its hard to see them both being town, but i suppose its possible. the Cogito list also contains CBD and GIF, both of which are by no means being town-read. But none of those people got L-1'd on page 2, so lynching them produces less data at this moment.

[onion]

i guess i'm doing a bad job of explaining it, so i'll try harder, using your pretty logic symbols no less.

Town!Llama

is a result in which it is revealed that Llama is town aligned. This can be the result of him dying, or possibly power-role related whatnot, or maybe even a really really convincing argument. anything that lets us know he's town aligned. the same symbol will be used to scum aligned and for other people.

a scum aligned Llama would imply that Tripod is not scum aligned, because Tripod L-1'd Llama on page 2. scum can't communicate during the day (Right, Mod?) and because they couldn't have known where the random votes would fall, it couldn't have been planned. Without planning it, it is unlikely that scum would L-1 scum. or to put it in logical symbolism:

1)

(A) Scum!Llama

-->

(D) Town!Tripod

--> is 'implies'. A --> D means 'if A is true, then D is true'. We aren't using it in its true meaning right now, because its sort of a math thing and we don't have mathematical accuracy here. i'm using it to mean '... then D very well probably is true.'

Implication statements don't say anything extra about the situation. This statement is only meaningful if the antecedent A is true. it becomes meaningless if A is not true, or if the consequent D becomes known. so keep that in mind.

Llama flipping scum would be doubly good for us, because we'd have killed a scum, and provided a very convincing argument for Town!Tripod, and then we could ignore and minimize his anti-town behavior, and everything would be happy. we'd deal with a scum and an anti-town in one go, it'd be amazing.

now then, there are other conditionals my previous posts talk about.

2)

(B) Town!Llama

-->

(C) Scum!Tripod

This one is even less definite. i wish i had other symbols to represent degrees of certainty. However, llama flipping town would mean that Tripod really did L-1 and ask to hammer a known townie on page 2. That might very well tip the scales from Anti-town to you-dirty-scum. it would be a stronger argument than anything we have right now, but there might exist other strong arguments by the time we get this one, so we'll just have to deal with it again when it comes up tomorrow.

Ya know, i'm going to use length of implication arrow to represent degree of certainty. a longer arrow is more likely than a shorter arrow.

----> i'll eat my keyboard if this isn't true
---> very probably true
--> probably true
-> mebbe...

so those are:

1)

(A) Scum!Llama

--->

(D) Town!Tripod

2)

(B) Town!Llama

-->

(C) Scum!Tripod

could either of these fuck up? sure. it is remotely possible that tripod L-1'd his scumbuddy on page 2, but yeah it seems pretty damn unlikely. its only a degree of certainty after all.

Now we will explore lynching Tripod first, which is not something i recommend.

3)

(C) Scum!Tripod

--->

(B) Town!Llama

for the exact same reasons as used in conditional 1. Because one L-1'd the other, they very probably aren't both scum.

4)

(D) Town!Tripod

->

(A) Scum!Llama

yeah i dunno about this one. If this happened all we'd know is that a townie known for bullshit behavior L-1'd someone of unknown alignment on page 2. it IS a confirmed townie'd suspicions of another player, so weight can be placed on it, but not too much. i probably wouldn't lynch Llama from this evidence alone.

And so because the net results of a Llamalynch, regardless of result, are better for town than a tripod lynch, i prefer lynching Llama over Tripod at this time. Derangement, you like your logic symbols, so please indicate which bit in there you don't like and we can hash it out. They seem pretty good as far as i can think. Keep in mind that these are conditionals and only mean exactly what they say. they don't work backwards or anything like that.

[onion]

:/ one of us is confused and i sure hope it isn't me.

A --> B aka IF A is true, then B is true.

is logically equivalent to

!(A AND !B) aka Never is A true and B false.

is logically equivalent to

!A IOR B aka A is false, B is true, or neither.

Those are the only equivalents. none of these say anything about A with a known B. you are thinking about biconditionals (<-->) which might crop up later down the line if we keep arguing this way.

A <--> B is equivalent to B <--> A.

so i'm pretty sure you are wrong. here, have a wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_conditional

[onion]

ok i'm going to make a post that isn't just arguing formal logic with derangement, but i'm totally going to argue formal logic with derangement later.

I'm also going to put aside my theory on Llama and Tripod a second as well, because while i'm pretty sure i'm right, i'm also pretty sure i'm expressing it wrong in formal logic because i don't know formal logic.

plus it would be pro-town of me to not tunnel vision that one and only thing. its my favorite case at the moment, but other cases exist.

Bubs, i request Firefly reaction gifs. firefly is better than animaniacs. i also agree with you that townies should be transparent, and to do otherwise is anti-town.

TellTale, in swapped your vote from Llama to Marquis in 248, but said that you suspected Marquis, CBD and Llama in the next post. why is Marquis a better vote than Llama? say something about CBD while you're at it.

GIF, you flat out say in 079 that that post is full of negative things about llama, reasons why he looks scummy, and then you say <snip> which is you saying you think he isn't scum, not explaining why you think he isn't scum. you even disclaim it as probably gut which is still not a reason. this is the reason i'm asking you to explain it because you HAVE NEVER EXPLAINED IT. so instead of being useless, how about putting some effort into this game and making your reasons known.

GIF, don't be a llama, defend your point of view.

-=THE LURKING NOBLEMAN CASE=-
Futan was very inactive, and was replaced by Marquis who is also very inactive. its been 300 posts now. Marquis' only action has been to ask what people thought about him 209 and to townread Equinox in 231. Marquis is a lurker. lynch all lurkers.

If we are going to lynch a lurker, D1 is the time to do it. it would be lazy, however, to focus on a policy lynch with so much time still on the clock. daylight burns for no man or something like that. Assuming Marquis really does post useful information tomorrow, this'll probably all go away.

Also, what's up with this kinda aborted Prawnowagon? Bubs was there because Prawn sucks at explaining things, which is fine, and then hopped off to go be part of that newfangled Marquis Wagon thats hitting number one in the charts in europe. Llama is there because (hey he actually explained why!) he's upset about Prawn calling his votes 'preservation votes'. Finally, Equinox is there because prawn wants to lynch one of the two onions, which was probably a joke but maybe not.

So i'd really like to hear more from Prawn.
@Prawn, in 139 you list townreads for Telltale, Equinox, Tripod, Derangement and GIF, and a suspicion of Llama. Do you still hold these views? Care to add/subtract/change/be useful about any of these? its been a long time since then. Why are you voting for Llama?

[onion]

You want an emotional attachment to the game marquis? then start liking Derangement. That guy is as pro-town as you can get. his posts are rich in data and highly useful. its a blessing to have him in this game, and we're totally going to win because of him unless he's scum. Scum!Derangement would be hella bad, but if he can pull off this sort of style and still win as scum, he really deserves it. Derangement, keep being badass.

you make me sad TellTale. maybe i should explain why my questions and why you answering my questions are pro-town actions. you want to be pro-town, right? RIGHT?!

Your vote and 'explanation' are 100 posts old now, time to re-affirm your thoughts. It is in the town's interests to know what you are thinking, and for you to show how the evidence changes your opinions slowly over time. Even if your vote doesn't change, your reasons for that vote might, and its best to keep that open and obvious so that if you are scum, you are easier to catch.

My requests for repeated information is an attempt to detect people's thoughts changing over time. i can't learn that without you telling me stuff. if your thoughts change too fast, it means you are flakey and wagon hoppy and scummy. if your thoughts never change, it means you are tunnelvisiony and not paying attention to the game. but if you have a slow, constant change going on, which is fueled by new evidence and arguments, and you show it, that's pro-town and you can help us win with it.

i know you already posted stuff about stuff 100 posts ago, but please post more stuff about stuff. show us how your thoughts have changed since then, or defend why they have not.

[onion]

@prawn, pleaz 2 ansr qustn n 326, kthnx
@GIF, pleaz 2 ansr qustn n 326, kthnx
@Tripod, y u want hammer wth 1 week left?
@Marquis, what did the hammer say to the tomato?

@CBD, your link is to post 275, which does include a rant against lurkers, but the phrase 'lurking scum' does not appear in it. lurking is totally anti-town, and there does exist a policy lynch for lynching these sort of anti-towns day 1, and its called Lynch All Lurkers.

The policy lynch doesn't care about the alignment of the victims, it just argues that there's no information day 1 anyway, and so lynching a clearly anti-town is probably as good as you can get. it'll help more down the line.

Now, it totally helps when the lurkers are also scummy, but its hard to do both at the same time, because you need to provide information to readable, and lurkers don't do that. so no, i don't have scumreads from our lurkers because they provide no content. i could provide a list of lurkers, but so what.

-=Postcount up to 349, the LURK-O-METER=-
01 Futan + Marquis = 2 + 11, all but 1 are useless.
11 Prawn = 13, 2 useless.
12 Equinox = 13, 1 useless.
14 CBD = 19, 5 of which are useless.
15 Llama = 15, 0 useless. good job at that at least.
17 GIF = 23, 6 useless.
17 Bubs = 17, 0 useless.
22 onion = 23, 1 useless, unless you count logic arguments, in which case 3.
29 TellTale = 31, 2 useless. good job.
45 Tripod = freaking 91 posts. its impossible to tell which ones aren't useless. i'll just half it.
56 Derangement = 61, not many are useless, minus 5ish

so as a tried and true method of evaluation, everyone who posts less than me is a lurker. I'm surprised by how low Equinox is, but everyone else ended up where i thought they would be. the obv lurkers are Marquis and Prawn, with darkhorse Equinox for some reason. I'm not disappointed in your input equinox, just keep doing what you're doing. but Marquis and Prawn, you need to play harder.

I find it cute that tripod and derangement make up half the posts in this game.

So there's the list of lurkers. I got a nullread on Marquis, a townread on Equinox and ya know possibly maybe kinda sorta not really ish quazi scumread on Prawn, but i also got an open question waiting for him to answer, so we'll see what that does.

-=-

i don't like CBD asking UT and Equinox for their reads on him.
i don't like Prawn's 330 which seems to translate to "he isn't scum, we should lynch him."

and i can't believe i'm going to agree with tripod, but he's right about Bub's votes on Prawn and Marquis. Because Bubs said he was going to remove the vote, it effectively didn't count for anything and might as well not have been placed. However, slow voting, and explaining what you are doing before you do it are pro-town, and there was nothing at all wrong with saying you'd vote for marquis in 24 hours and then doing it. its just that voting for prawn in the meantime was strange.

Right, and now to continue the logic argument with Derangement.
are we actually arguing an in-game suspicion here, or just the symbolism used to represent it? i mean, you aren't actually arguing that we should lynch Tripod before Llama, are you?

312 proves that you know a lot more about this than i do, so help me out. how would i write the statement i want? X -> Y, if X is the case, then Y is the case. However, other things can also cause Y to be the case even if X isn't true. I want a truth table that looks like

X - Y
TRUE - TRUE
FALSE - NULL

what do i use to make that?

[onion]

so here, try this one:

IF (i eat ice cream) THEN (i feel good)
or
A --> B, where A= i eat ice cream and B = i feel good.

But that doesn't mean that i can't feel good without eating ice cream, nor does it mean that me feeling good is proof that i ate ice cream. i can feel good for a wide range of reasons, one of which is A. However, A is proof of B. when i eat ice cream, i always feel good.

[onion]

@Derangement, so you disagree with BOTH my symbolism and my vote :/
i'm no formal logic master or superprogrammer or anything like that, so i'll try to make it really really clear what i'm trying to say so that either i can convince you, or give you the ammo to convince me. either would be an acceptable outcome.

i know that flips don't influence the actual probability of other flips. the roles are set at the start of the game, and our knowledge has nothing to do with what someone flips. from an outside point of view, scum have a 100% chance to flip scum. but from an internal point of view, we aren't discussing the chances of someone flipping scum, but instead something like the chances of us accurately predicting the flip. that's why we say things like 'Llama is more likely to flip scum than Derangement'. it really means something like 'our chances of predicting a scumflip from Llama are greater than our chances of predicting a scumflip from Derangement.'

for right now, i will ignore everything except Tripod L-1ing Llama. Then i'll add in other things later in this post.

if we identify Llama's alignment, before Tripod's, it provides us with some useful information, regardless of which alignment he flips.
1 If Llama flips scum, it means that Tripod L-1'd a scum, meaning that Tripod is probably town.
2 if Llama flips town, it means that Tripod L-1'd a townie, meaning that Tripod is even more scummy than we currently thought.
Both of these bits of information are very valuable to us, and it would be useful to have them.

If we identify Tripod's alignment before Llama's, it still provides us with useful information, but its not AS USEFUL as the previous example.
3 If Tripod flips scum, it means a scum L-1'd somellama, making that somellama probably town.
4 If Tripod flips town, it means that a townie L-1'd somellama, which doesn't say much about Llama's alignment.

Now, lets add in Tripod's known anti-town, unreliable behavior. it indicates that he might L-1 someone for the lolz, and might do this as town. it seems that its almost a null-tell for him. this weakens situation 4 even more, becuase now its a chaotic anti-town townie L-1ing someone, which hardly means anything at all.

And so, disregarding the scummyness of either of the 2 targets, it seems logical to lynch Llama first, because it provides equally useful info on a scumflip and better information on a townflip than the Tripod lynch would.

I believe that both tripod and llama are about equally scummy. Tripod is anti-town and dangerous and crazy, while Llama blends into the background, chooses to disregard questions asked of him, and places only votes that are popular. either one could easily be scum. Also, they are both on the Cogito List, so there's that as well. Because both are pretty scummy, we should probably lynch at least one of em some time, and as of right now, the information provided by a Llama lynch is equal to or greater than the information provided by a Tripod lynch. thus my vote.

i think that's as clear as i can make it. ball is in your court, derangement.

[onion]

...oh i get it. finally.

The assumption is that Tripod, being a crazy person, would L-1 someone for the lolz in every situation except in the case where both Tripod and the target are scum.

But because Tripod is crazy, townflips from either of them mean nothing. I was expecting not-terrible tactics out of him for situation 2 while not expecting not-terrible tactics in 4. i abandon premise 4. that simplifies the logical statement tremendously, down to:

Tripod and Llama aren't both scum.

If Llama flips town, its reasonable to believe that Town!Tripod voted for him because he's crazy.
If Tripod flips town, it doesn't mean anything about Llama's alignment because Tripod is crazy.

alright then. good job there! sorry it took me so long to hash out what you were telling me. you are correct and i was wrong. DAMN YOU CONFUSING LOGICZ.

The fact remains that a Llama or Tripod lynch today would generate us extra information we might not get from a different lynch, and so they are still prime lynch candidates for today. If we policy lynch Marquis today, we should try not to entirely forget about this case come day 2.

My vote will remain on Llama for the time being, because he has more votes than Tripod right now.

[onion]

wait ya know what? if both Llama and Tripod are extra-info lynches, why am i voting for the one that isn't insanely anti-town?!

Unvote: LlamaFluff

because I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT. Derangement's mastery over logical fallacy has proven to me that my theory was wrong. Llama is still scummy, but there is no longer any advantage to lynching him before Tripod.

Vote: UntrodTripod

because oh lets see. we'll go with because he L-1'd someone on page 2, and because his abrasive, yet sometimes amusing, antics cause all sorts of issues. He's anti-town. We just experienced it right here. IF Tripod wasn't anti-town, then townflips from either tripod or llama would result in useful information, but because he's anti-town, they don't. This is a concrete example of how being anti-town harms us all. he's not too anti-town to be scum, he anti-town enough to be scum.

I'm a little bit sad to vote for him though, because he has made me laugh on a few occasions. the broken clocks thing was funny, and i quite enjoyed the picture reaction to my terrible pun. it would be great to prove him town somehow so that we could minimize his anti-town impact while keeping him around for comedy relief. i can't think of a way to do that though. better just lynch him.

Also, Tripod, is your forum signature about Llamafluff, or about a different llama?

[onion]

not to come to the rescue of one of the people i'm trying to lynch, but one of the 'people' Llama is talking about is me. I think Prawn's idea of lynching one of the onions was either an unfunny joke, or a rather scummy plan indeed. i don't want to lynch Bubs, because he's on my probably-town list at the moment. Not that building cases on people not many people think are scum is a bad thing. Its in all of our interests to hear why you think people are suspicions and why you think we should lynch them, but 'because they are both onions' is a pretty terrible case. making that joke cost prawn a bit of town-cred, not that he had town-cred to begin with...

And i don't see buddying between Marquis and Prawn. I do see Marquis mildly town-reading Prawn and Prawn wholeheartedly town-reading him back. is that what buddying means? it does seem a tad strong reaction from Prawn assuming the same lack of information we all have on Marquis. Again, the Pro-town method include changing your opinion slowly and showing the evidence that changed it. This was a fast change of opinion. making it anti-town, possibly scummy.

Neither of these 2 points are worth lynching over, but they are totally worth keeping in mind. I'd like to study the case against Prawn in depth, but people disregarded my 326, so i lack the direct evidence to do such. Our lazy players HATE going back and digging out questions from previous posts apparently, so i'll repeat the questions here and add some new ones.

@Prawn, in 139 you list townreads for Telltale, Equinox, Tripod, Derangement and GIF, and a suspicion of Llama. Do you still hold these views? Care to add/subtract/change/be useful about any of these? its been a long time since then. Why are you voting for Llama?

@GIF, do you think Llama is scum? Why or why not?

@Bubs, you were voting for Prawn for a bit. were you voting for him because you hated how he didn't explain things? Has your opinion changed? Why do you prefer a Marquis lynch over a Prawn lynch?

@Llama, did you REALLY vote for Prawn because he was making fun of your votes, calling them 'preservation votes'? What other reasons do you have?

@Equinox, caught up yet? Tell me about your vote on Prawn. what is the most convincing case to you?

[onion]

I'm pretty sure we shouldn't policy lynch the former-marquis slot this day. While he was very lurky, and we even got a roleclaim out of him, and Lynch All Lurkers is a pro-town tactic, the possibility of getting someone useful very well might outweigh that. if newguy is useless as well, and we can determine that before N1, we probably should policy lynch him. i'm not holding my breath for that though. 400 posts is quite the chore to replace into.

oh look a reads list! complete lists are srsly no bueno because they provide fuel for scum to needle the little things like 'why am i 6th instead of 7th on the list' which bogs down the scumhunting, which is what they want, which is why we shouldn't do it. but top 2 lists are fine maybe i guess. is it even a list if its so short?

ONION'S TOP TWO LIST
Top Two Town
0) onion, because onion isn't scum. i'd know.
1) Derangement, because he's so freaking useful. He's done thing but argue for pro-town stances, he votes intelligently, and is active.
2) Bubs, because while sorta lurky, he's posted enough pro-town useful stuff to be awesome. i particularly liked his argument for town transparency.

Top Two Scum
1) Tripod, because he's anti-town as fuck, he's on the Cogito list, he L-1'd someone page 3... what else, his 'we should hammer him' jokes are suspicious and not funny.
2) um, either Llama or Prawn. Llama's really kicked up his game recently, and is explaining himself better, making better decisions. Maybe its just Llamascum figuring out what i want and giving it to me, i dunno. And open questions out for Prawn, which will really stick him into this slot or not when answered i hope.

PS: oops, new post from prawn while writing this. haven't read that yet. no time all of a sudden whoosh.

[onion]

omg lynch njac rabble rabble

Prawn reads TellTale as town due to 071, which is TellTale defending his vote on Llama. i don't see anything in it. Prawn didn't even post after that for 2 pages. Someone else go read 071 and tell me if it sounds townish.

Prawn likes many of equinox's posts. so do i. done.

Prawn likes Tripod, because Tripod said he liked Derangement? Where was this exactly? are you talking about 049 because its pretty sarcastic. Do you put no stock in Tripod actually wanting to lynch Llama back in the day? he even requested hammer...

Prawn likes GIF because of the Cogito List reaction. i dunno, i guess its a thing you could reasonably like. i generally dislike GIF due to his unwillingness to straight up answer questions and be cross examined. But i can believe that his reaction to the Cogito List might be construed as townish.

Prawn doesn't like Llama because he thinks Llama's attack on GIF is suspicious. Which attack would that be? are you talking about 234? At the time, Llama DID have the most votes on him (3, being Prawn, Tripod and TellTale), it doesn't seem that different from 071 which you apparently really liked. Also, Llama also expressed suspicions of Tripod only a few posts later. That might support your case. go anything else?

[onion]

hi NJAC, we recieved a roleclaim from your former slot owner already, so it would be a good idea to get one from you as well. his roleclaim can be found in post 347. will you roleclaim?

[onion]

@derangement what the hell what? he already claimed once! is this some obscure scum-tell i've invoked?

[onion]

so either he says 'no i won't claim again' which might totally mean something, it might mean that the claim was wrong and marquis was a ridiculous idiot, which is what i suspect. or he might claim VT, which won't do anything, which is what i'm expecting. or he might claim something else entirely, which would be a giant huge scumtell, which is what i hope. but me talking about it has ruined the whole thing probably.

[onion]

@Prawn
no, it seems to me that Llama hit it on the head in 059 and GIF's reaction really was suspect. this particular post does not cast suspicion on Llama. There are OTHER reasons why Llama is scummy though, consider investigating those.

@Equinox
yeah, the needling happens. While transparency is important, showing the middle of the list isn't pro-town. People who are in the middle of the list are people you don't have solid reads on, which is good to know on it own, and worth slapping those people around a bit to try to fix that. But because they are middle-list people, it means there's no strong cases either way for them, which means saying one is scummier than another is pretty arbitrary. So listing them in a more-scummy less scummy order doesn't really make sense, but does give them something useless to talk about instead of i dunno answering a pointed question that might help you get a read. i don't think this is making very sense i'll try to answer this question again later.

@Derangement
no i don't trust marquis' claim. he lied to us about catching up, so now i don't trust a word he said. he's still a terrible lurker and lair and a good target for a policy lynch. NJAC could have done any of three things, and they would have replaced Marquis' claim because we can't trust it. he could have also claimed VT, which is what probably would have happened, and that would be null. he could have refused to claim, and that would totally mean something, and questions would ensue and i'd probably end up with a much better read on him than i do now, which is what i want. OR he could claim something else which would probably be really scummy and hey that's a good read on him too. good reads are good.

i provide post links because that's what i do, if you haven't noticed. i don't try to trick people into acting scummy, because that backfires too much. instead, i try to make people act pro-town, which makes them easier to notice if they are scum or not. giving people full information is a way to make them act pro-town when they are lazy.

so no, i don't trust Marquis' claim and i'm trying to get a read on NJAC because i'm liking the policy lynch more and more as the day goes on.

and crap, GIF is VLA until the deadline?! shitty. and nooooo Bubs don't inactive out! Amaryllidaceae are known for their persistence! instead of inactiving out, how about answering my question for you in 408?

[onion]

@tripod
i was hoping for a read on his inactive shitty slot. the 'good' answers were 'yes i'm VT' which i would have read as 'yes, the situation that marquis was in warrented a vt claim and i might be scum because of it.' or 'no i'm not going to claim' which i'd read as 'i disagree with what marquis did in that situation' which would give me a reason to not try to policy lynch him because the policy lynch is good.

@prawn
in 330 you say we should lynch Marquis if he doesn't improve or replace out. now he's replaced out, but i'm not seeing much improvement. are situation hasn't changed. thoughts?

@you can't have your cake and eat it too
i'm more suggesting that he re-affirm or don't re-affirm his claim. Marquis was terrible and lied, and there's no reason to believe the roleclaim meant what we think it meant. see the tripod response above.

so yeah, we are approaching deadline, and i also feel rather detached from this game. now we lost bubs and that makes me sad. i'm having a real hard time with Llama because i had really good scum-reads on him, but he's improved in the past like 2 weeks. it might be scum giving me what i want, but well i dunno. maybe.

i do see tripod hopping on the brand new bandwagon because he hops on all bandwagons. the only one he missed was the one on himself.

034, tripod 5th on Llama.
209, tripod 4th on Marquis.
399, tripod 2nd on Prawn.
451, tripod 2nd on onion.

but hey, that's just Tripod being the anti-town he is. who am i to have standards about what is good for town and what isn't. oh wait, yes i do, and Tripod is scummy because of it. he bandwagons. bandwagoning is bad.

i'm having a hard time with prawn. there was a sorta bandwagonish on him, which petered out, and i'm not entirely sure why people were suspecting him. nothing concrete. he answered my question, and i need to give it some hard thought to decide if i suspect him or not.

hell i'm having a hard time with CBD GIF and Telltale too! The only people i don't suspect are Derangement, Bubs and maybe Equinox. but you all can't be scum, so i need to do it better.

so yeah. deadline looms and i want to lynch either Tripod or the Marquis Slot. i don't know if i'd settle for Prawn or Llama but i will know after i deep think it tomorrow when i'm not hating life (ran out of tobacco, can't get any until tomorrow)

i still don't see the super-scum-tell in my interaction with NJAC, but derangement sees it, and he seems right about everything, so i'll deep think about that too, look at it from an outside perspective, and see if it really is as anti-town as people think. i sure hope it isn't. i don't like acting anti-town.

[onion]

lurking and lying aren't town-tells. it might prove he's a bad player, and i believe it. i'm willing to give him null-tell for being reliably bad, but that still results in a player we know nothing about because he's never posted, which is what the policy lynch is about.

[onion]

oh great he really IS another tripod. we don't need more Anti-town in here.

push scum reads... ok. i scumread tripod. he's on the cogito list. he bandwagons. he's anti-town. he l-1'd llama who hadn't posted yet. and he keeps making suggestions that if followed would entirely screw the town. they are 'jokes' apparently. least that's the story when people call him on it.

also oops, that list of Tripod votes had a typo. Tripod voted for Marquis in 309, not 209.

i think a policy lynch on the marquis slot would be ok. its kinda shitty to have NJAC read 20 pages only to die, but a real lurker like this is really really not good for us. there's a reason the policy lynch exists, and the policy lynch is pro-town.

i haven't deep think'd about llama and prawn yet.

[onion]

>_> --------------> sns

[onion]

i'd be most happy with a tripod lynch because he's my biggest scum-read right now. however, seeing how i'm the only vote on him, with a deadline looming, i'd be willing to settle for second best, being the policy lynch. (subject to change a la big thinks). The policy lynch exists for a reason. it becomes less affordable to lynch lurkers as the game progresses, so either you should lynch them early or not at all. never lynching lurkers means that there are just wildcards out there that you can't read, who might be scum. that's a losing prospect. but maybe i'm just mad at the slot because Marquis lied. I'd REALLY like to lynch marquis for lying, but we can't do that. i dunno. i'll add it to the big think list.

[onion]

tobacco, check. espresso, check. few hours to dedicate, check. DEEP THINKS ARE GO. starting with prawn. back in an hourish.

[onion]

Deep Think on Prawn, ready to go. Well, up to sns posting at least. what came before his history, but what came with that is 'current' and not suitable for deep thinks yet.

I think Prawn suspects Llama for the following reasons. Prawn, please let me know if there's anything else i should add.

Endangered Llamas Case (Prawn’s case on Llama)
Llama said ‘preservation vote’ first, not Prawn. Llama, when pressured with many many votes very early on, chose to first 100 vote for Tripod whom had 2 votes on him, and then 303 vote for Prawn, whom had 1 vote on him. This indicates bandwagoining rather than scumhunting. Also, Prawn dislikes Llama’s 047, being an attack on GIF, another example of Llama going for the easy target. Since, Llama has continued to argue with Prawn, never stating a decisive point.

I think Prawn likes GIF due to his reaction WAYYYY back about the Cogito List 018. do you like GIF for any other reason?

I think Prawn likes Marquisslot because Marquis town read him in 362, despite Prawn being at 2 votes, which apparently made him 'unpopular'. Seems like a goofy reason to like someone. 2 votes is rather small. Llama was also at 2 votes, so Marquis town-reading Prawn is also supporting the Llamalynch counter-wagon. Its not really something to town-read someone for.

I think Prawn wanted to lynch Bubs, recommending it in 296, 314, then backs off in 340, then is back on 417, then back off again 454. Now he voted for Bub's replacement sns in 479. For not actually having a case on Bubs, or any evidence that he's scummy, Prawn's been on this for quite a while. its suspicious.

In 407, Prawn calls misrepresentation on Llama, but he's wrong. Prawn was denying that people found his things scummy as Llama stated. I've already responded to this in 408. It feels like Prawn was trying to alienate Llama rather than hold to a logical, evidence based case against him. its suspicious.

Prawn likes TellTale's 071 (from 139) because its TellTale agreeing with him, then like CBD's 151 (from 417) ragging on TellTale's reads, which is a bit strange. He kinda supports Tripod in 434 as well. oh and he likes me in 417 as well.

So prawn's been on Llama forever, with such vengeance that they ought not both be scum. He's got a strange, scummy, fixation on lynching Bubsslot, which is yeah a bit scummy. His case on Llama hasn't been crystal clean, but at least he's stuck to it. Stick-to is Pro-town. He lurk-read Marquis, then liked him, which isn't scummy in itself, but his reason for liking marquis is an overreaction and anti-town. oh yeah and he was bright eye'd and bushy tail'd at the dawn of day 1. scum are more on-the-ball about that sort of thing.

Conclusion, Prawn's actions as of before sns are just a bit scummy. but just a bit. why the wagon on him? i trust derangement so

Derangement, you voted Prawn in 425 because of his place on the Llamawagon (as stated in 411). is that the case? why do you find his position suspicious? (i also find it suspicious, but why do you?)

Alright! that was a lot of work! sheesh. hour break, food and stuff, then i'll get back to it. i should probably address current pages before continuing my delve into history. whoosh

[onion]

alright back to work!

@derangement, so your vote was to pressure him into answering your questions, which he did, which is a good answer i think, and you are satisfied as well. I'm taking that to mean that you don't find Prawn overly super suspicious at this point, which is good because I don't find him overly suspicious at this point either, just a little bit suspicious.

I'll deal with some stuff that happened in the last 3 pages now, because it involves people trying to lynch me, and then i'll delve back into the previous 20 pages once more. please await with bated breath.

[onion]

473 sns - appeared, posted read list. (which is bad. complete readlists are bad) and voted onion.

476 Prawn - doubted sns's list.
478 sns - eyeroll'd at Prawn.
479 Prawn - voted: sns because fak yo shit.
480 sns - voted: Prawn because omgus.

that's a pretty crazy interaction right there. very anti-town out of sns, but Bubs was so townish! and they have to be the same alignment! blarg.

@Derangement 486
the big thinks are big. i ought to have been doing this the whole time, but i got busy and lazy, but i'm doing it now, and i'm hoping that i can hash out what i think. i DID hash out what i think about Prawn, which is good stuff, and i'm intending to others as well. so yeah, big thinks might produce alterations in who i find suspicious.

i'm trying to push my scumreads rather than balk about people voting for me, because that's pro-town, but first i need to really nail down what the reads are. reads are Town!Derangement and Mildlyscummy!Prawn, and Scum!Tripod, but i've only justified my prawn suspicion at this point. Deep thinks about tripod are going to be hard because he as 100 fucking posts, but i'll try to justify that one down hard, and let everyone know exactly what the things are that we should lynch him for. marquis too. i suspect i really am just mad at him for lying, but maybe there's something in there.

I've always been a bit iffy about the pro-townness of roleclaims. Ideally power roles don't get into a situation where they need to claim or get lynched, but it happens because we kinda suck. in these situations its more pro-town to reveal your power role and eat the night kill than it is to let the town lynch you. this is because you, as a power role, know that whoever it is they lynch other than you stands a better chance of being scum than you do, because you are town-aligned.

there's a little strange caveat in this because often the power roles don't count towards the number of townies alive to prevent scum victory, and so it seems like it would be possible for a situation to arise in which risking them lynching a VT is more dangerous than letting them lynch you. it's probably only clear in hindsight though. plus that was sorta off topic, so back to the topic.

usually it is not in the town's interests for a power role to claim, because it is better to keep them hidden from the scum. for example, a cop randomly claiming would result in the scum NKing him, and that would be bad. But because its less bad than lynching the cop and letting the scum NK someone else, the roleclaim becomes pro-town. its choosing the lesser of two bad situations.

so related to our game. I requested NJAC to claim when he wasn't at L-1 and you see this as suspect. This means that you think it would be harmful to the town for him to claim in this situation. If he had a power role, and Marquis fake claimed, it would be harmful for him to real-claim now, and it would be scummy of me to cause that. if he didn't have a power role, and marquis claimed true or is scum and false claimed, it would be valuable to the town to know that NJAC thinks the claim served his win condition, whichever it may be.

Right now its exactly like Marquis didn't claim, and we didn't lynch the lying lurker for no reason. because we can't believe his claim. i'm mad at him for being so utterly worthless and throwing into question the only thing that wasn't useless. i don't see any NJAC in the coming 3 pages, which means he's STILL lurking and we STILL have no information on him, and we STILL didn't lynch the lurker liar for no reason.

So i acknowledge your questions derangement. I'd hope NJAC would make up for Marquis but he isn't, and the only situation where NJAC re-claiming would be harmful to us is if he really had a power role and really claimed it, which is both unlikely, and i'd very probably not believe him unless he had some evidence. in every other situation, NJAC re-claiming would provide us with a tiny little bit of information, which would be good because right now i have exactly zero information on him.

-=-

489 sns - sheesh inner rage much?

496 TellTale - sorry to be ignoring you and hay read my posts dag nabbit. i work hard on those. but had i read this post before posting my Prawn Deep Think i'd probably have said something about it. it really seems like there was no case on Prawn.

i do see 498 TellTale here heavily pushing a lynch on NJAC or Llama. they seem reasonable possible lynches, but the heavy push is a bit off-putting.

499 CBD - but but but... and CBD 501 wants me to move my vote as well.

506 Equinox - yeah um, see response to Derangement above.
Where IS NJAC anyway...

511-523 TellTale and Tripod - i don't know if it fits the definition of role-fishing or PR hunting. Please read the response to Derangement above, where i explain why i believe my request was pro-town.

525 TellTale - what is dog logic?

528 sns - "i doubt scum would be that eager to jump on a bandwagon." i don't like that statement right there, very wifomy.

...oops thats it BAM

So it really looks like i need to deep think on Llama next. see if a vote on him is actually warranted. i didn't like him 200 pages ago, but that's pretty outdated.

[onion]

@Tripod for example, look at the cop wikipage here:
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Cop
at the bottom is a sample PM role. it says "and there is at least one town player alive." that means if the scum kill all the VTs, they win, even if there's a cop alive. least i assume that's what that means. is that what that means? i'm confused.

BUT FORWARD WITH THE CONFUSION Here's deep thoughts on Llama. I also really don't like at all 539 at all. telling us what we can and can't do?! pshaw.

Llama, you started off 081 suspecting GIF due to his 018 reaction to being on the Cogito List. But then 100 you moved your vote to Tripod, explaining that you liked GIF backing off both the Llama and UT wagons in 105. However, both backoffings (079 and 080) were really very weak and under justified. I feel like a townie who suspected GIF would be more suspicious of GIF’s wonky behavior, not less. And then in 234 and 237 you say you still suspect him. What happened to the backoffings?

Also, you've kept that vote on Tripod ever since. Do you still think he's scum? Or are you just backing the counterwagon to yours? what are your current thoughts about GIF?

Yes. What counter wagon? I could move my vote to three other people and they would have the same number of votes as UT has now. You are using the same poor argument prawn is using where you set it up to no matter who I vote I am apparently voting in self-preservation because its not the only vote for the player. GIF is still a good scum bet.

I dun’t likes it. This is me asking why you are voting for Tripod, and what i get is you lumping me into this preservation vote argument with Prawn, which you invented and the rest of us adopted. Llama was the first person to say ‘preservation vote.’ Plus its not even true. way to be overly defensive and suspicious.

In 303 you swap your vote over to Prawn, getting annoyed at him for calling your votes ‘preservation votes’ even though they were and you yourself coined the term, not Prawn. From here on out we hear nothing about Tripod nor GIF for for… forever? i was expecting to fill this in with the post where you get back to them. hasn’t happened yet.

I was trying to summarize your case on Prawn and give it a catchy case name, but i just can’t pick it out. you accuse him of tunneling and being useless, while you tunnel and be useless yourself. You were right in 386 at least, and i’d be willing to agree that you were both useless. Pretty sure 389 doesn’t make any sense at all. in 405 you state your own reasons as GIF’s 296 and 384, which i’ll agree are slightly mildly scummy. its not worth a lynch though.

Notice how Prawn immediately dismissed (again) my push on him by saying that only I saw things as scummy. Which apart from being a blatant lie (Equinox voted him for similar things, UT appears to have as well, CDB, onion and OB have been calling him scum for the same things) is just a way of actually again dismissing my attacks without really answering them.

i dun likes it. it implies that Llama has posted a case or some questions or something that Prawn ought to answer, but no he didn’t post anything. I don’t know what Llama was expecting Prawn to respond to. it might just be scummy rabblerousing. This is an example of a trumped up case that Prawn’s talking about.

ok, what is sheeping?

-=-

So yeah, it looks like Llama really IS trumped up case toting and very bandwagony. He omgus'd Tripod, and i think the only reason we heard anything about GIF was because i was hounding him about it. Then he omgus'd Prawn, and we've heard nothing about either GIF nor Tripod ever since. it really does seem like he's just voting for who he can rather than who he suspects.

After a response and following argument with Llama, (unless he changes my mind) i'd consider voting for him.

so, balls in your court llama. DEFEND THYSELF.

[onion]

oh well never mind then. good because it would prevent the town from being at LYLO without knowing it. can we get a mod confirmation on this please?

petroleumjelly: hypothetically, if there were no Vanilla Townies alive, but there were still both town-aligned power roles and scum alive, would the game immediately end in scum victory because all the VT's are dead?

[onion]

also another reason to consider a Llamalynch is

DAAAAA bum bum bum bum, bum bum baa dum ba di da di da da di da da di da...
Episode V, Return of the Formal Logic:

Scum!Llama --> both Town!Prawn AND Town!Tripod. That would be a big load off my mind. again this is me needing a single-way implication symbol, because i don't think Town!Llama would imply that both Prawn AND Tripod are scum. maybe one of them? it would be a point against them at any rate.

[onion]

Prawn, my to-do pile?

and lets just put this one argument to bed right here.
025 Prawn moving his vote from Equinox(x0) to Llama(x4), where it stayed until 479.
076 Tripod voting for Llama(x5), the notorious L-1 vote. stayed until 307.
100 Llama moving his vote from GIF(x0) to Tripod(x2).
303 Llama moving his vote from Tripod(x1) to Prawn(x2).

so as you can see, both Tripod and Prawn were currently voting for Llama when Llama voted for them.

[onion]

doesn't look like Llama will argue or convince me otherwise. guess i'll vote for him. The extra info possible from this lynch really convinced me. i'd love to not have to worry about Tripod. its not too late llama. go do something about 543. convince me you aren't scum.

Unvote: UntrodTripod
Vote: Llamafluff

Unoffical current vote count probably

LlamaFluff - 3 - TellTaleHeart, Untrod Tripod, onion
snscompt1 – 2 – prawneater, Derangement
prawneater – 2 – LlamaFluff, snscompt1
NJAC – 1 – GuyInFreezer
onion – 1 – Equinox

Not Voting – 2 – ChannelDelibird, NJAC

[onion]

@Derangement 562
"I think I get where you're coming from, so let me point out why I disapprove of you asking for a claim if you reject Llama's, and therefore don't know NJAC's role."

by which you mean reject Marquis' and therefore don't know NJAC's role, right?

i wasn't thinking about it from a denying info to the scum perspective. but isn't a believed VT claim a good target for NK's? its a quasi-confirmed townie, and those always get NK'd. forcing the NK is always good, and forcing it onto a VT is even better. i don't think the scum want a confirmed townie running around.

but is it not true? in your experience do the scum just leave believed VT claims alone because they are less likely to be a power role than a random other target?

this became such a big deal, and the output information is so small, and we don't have time for it to be useful today anyway, so NJAC, don't claim. we'll come back to it tomorrow. i apologize for the confusion. protip: derangement is always right about everything.

-=-

I kinda like this unlikely to NL system this game has. it means we can give our slacker lurker players time to post without significantly endangering us. so while it is essential that we maintain the criteria for a lynch at deadline, it is probably more important to let NJAC and sns post than it is to pile on and hammer llama. Equinox, yes, please don't end the day early.

i don't even remember if there are any open questions out there for me, so if you have them everyone could you please repost them? wah i don't want to deep think about tripod. he has 5 times the posts of everyone else. plus it would mean reading them all AGAIN. i'd come out brainwashed with capitalist fundamentalism or something. i'm not going to do it unless Llama flips town, which he shouldn't.

oh yeah somewhere i tried to explain something and it made no sense and i was going to get back to it and i didn't. where is that...

ah. @Equinox about why full lists are bad. everyone has a full list. its easy to look at 2 players and figure out which one is more scummy. but its bad to post the list because the middle of it isn't useful to the town. You aren't going to vote for someone in the middle of the list, and because they are in the middle of the list it means your opinions aren't strong enough about them to influence the town. i mean unless you have some seriously heavily documented null-read, then that's worth talking about, because its really strange. but most middle-of-the-list people are there because you just don't have a very strong read. you should totally call them out and make them post more, but don't do it in a full list.

Saying that Player5 is more suspicious than Player6, but that you have poor reads and really wouldn't vote for either because you are gunning for Player1 or Player2, defocuses the effort being put into either lynching Player1, Player2, or convincing you that you shouldn't do that. it adds an argument in there about Player5 and Player6 which is going to soak up time and effort and won't change anything regardless of how its resolved. you could use it as a gambit sure, and maybe a good read will pop out of it, but unless that's your objective, cluttering the game with pointless arguments is not pro-town. there, did that explain it better?

deadline moved so now we have 2 days still. waiting for lurkers to lurk and llamas to balk and not reply to 543. gonna go do some errands, but i'll be monitoring the thread for most of the day.

[onion]

TellTale, wait, you suspect CBD?

[onion]

TellTale, then you suspect Llama? 4+ of us suspect Llama. i'm not sure what you are angry emoting about.

[onion]

well... lets dig into Bub's old posts and see what there is to see. it'll be useful tomorrow at least. something to do while waiting for lurkers to lurk and llamas to balk and all that.

[onion]

Bubs Deepish Thoughts.

There's really not that much bubs to go on but lets see...

031 Bubs liked Equinox for his meta-suspicion of Llama but
212 Bubs disliked Derangement's meta-suspicion on Tripod.

085 Bubs didn't like Llama's haphazard random thought patterns but
278 Bubs thinks Llama's thought patterns are 'clear as crystal'.

Bubs voted Prawn in 027 and again in 269, explaining that prawn was his biggest scum-read in 325, yet he did his wonky goofy temp-vote-then-move-to-Marquis thing that was rather questionable. He L-1'd Marquis in 319.

BUT Bubs argued for town transparency and pro-town good things that i really like. He wanted people to explain their votes, to not hold back information, to not lurk. all these things are good, pro-town things. Plus he was useful and active until he wasn't all of a sudden and got replaced.

It seems like Bubs sort of liked Llama. He voted for Prawn in 027 for voting for Llama, he argued to decrease the votes on Llama in 046 and 062, and supports him in 278. However, he said he didn't understand Llama in 085. EVEN THE BUBS POST IS ALL ABOUT LLAMA!

Conclusion: Bub's pro-town tirades outweigh his self conflicting stances on meta-analysis and its possible he learned llamaspeek somewhere between 085 and 278. It would be mildly suspicious for this slot to have Llama flip scum, but even then the pro-town tirades would probably still outweigh them. Bubs is rather townish.

[onion]

[onion]

587 Llama - Roleclaims One-shot Tracker.

The Tracker is an informative role that can target a player at Night and learn who, if anybody, that player targeted the same night (but not the action the player performed). If that player did not target anyone, the Tracker receives a result of "did not target anyone" or similar.
Trackers have been seen as each alignment.
This version of Tracker, and only this version of Tracker, is considered Normal on mafiascum.net.

from what i can understand of the Llamaspeek, his plan was to find someone who was very probably VT and track them N1, then roleclaim D2, revealing 2 town-aligned people without active PRs. Isn't that bad for town for the same reasons me and derangement were discussing? Revealing VTs to the scum lets them know who not to target. it seems like a bad plan to me.

and your case on prawn never had anything to do with you having a power role, so you claiming doesn't change the shittyness of it. we explored the case against Prawn already and it was not very strong.

[onion]

So either Llama is fakeclaiming or he isn't. let's check the possibilties. I'm going to assume that we autolynch him tomorrow should he survive the NK.

1) We accept Llama's fake-claim, lynch someone else, he survives the NK, tells us someone then flips scum.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 NK, 1 scum. that'd be pretty good!

2) We accept Llama's true-claim, lynch someone else, he survives the NK, tells us someone then flips PR.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 NK, 1 dead PR and 1 Tracker read, which is of questionable value. Tracker results are mighty fickle.

3) We accept Llama's claim, lynch someone else, then he gets NK'd.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 forced NK, and no info. forcing NK's is always good.

4) We don't accept Llama's claim and lynch him.
This results in 1 chosen lynch, 1 NK, and no info.

Actually, that seems pretty in favor of letting him live. i must be doing something wrong. help!

[onion]

ok lets try this again....

1) Scum!llama fakeclaims and we accept it. We lynch someone else, scum NK, we lynch Llama, they NK. this results in 1 unknown, 2 town, 1 scum dead, which is a big price to pay for 1 scum, but there are 9 of us who aren't scum (assuming 2 scum), so i /guess/ that's worth it?

2) Town!llama claims and we accept it, and the Scum don't NK him. This results in 1 unknown, 3 town, dead, and we get a tracker result, which is a very poor trade indeed.

3) Town!llama claims and we accept it, then the Scum NK him. This results in 1 unknown, 1 town dead for nothing. but that's what happens every mislynch.

VS

4) Scum!llama fakeclaims and we lynch him for it. This results in 1 scum 1 town dead, which is really good.

5) Town!llama claims and we lynch him for it. This results in 2 town dead, which is really bad.

ok that feels like it makes a lot more sense. The Let-him-live-until-tomorrow approach only has a single valuable result, and that one costs us 2 town. Letting him live is better than lynching him if he's town, but not as good as lynching him if he's scum. Unlike most lynches we get a middle choice here.

but its a middle choice i don't want to take. I want llama to flip scum, but him flipping town still provides valuable information. Both prawn and bub's deep thinks highly involved Llama, and knowing his alignment can also tell us things about Tripod as well. its worth it to lynch him.

one-shot tracker is a pretty useless power role, but it is in theme with apparently what people expect power roles to be this game. an experienced person should chime in on this.

So what you think people, is the middle path worth following? the best case scenario is trade 2 town and an unknown for 1 scum.

[onion]

(less than 24, more like um... 16ish)

yawn ok back to it.

@derangement, were you prefering a not-llama lynch because you were sensing his claims? or for some other reason?

@CBD, now that i slept on it, Llama's plan isn't entirely terrible. Trackers have a hard time finding scum, because there's usually only 1 active at night. also being one-shot, pulling off a scum find would be rather difficult. But if someone VT claimed and was apparently believed, it seems that they'd feel safe enough to be the active one if they were scum. tracking that person would either catch the surprise scum, or strengthen the VT claim, both of which are good. it seems like a better waste of the power than to target someone you suspect and hope for the best.

i dislike prawn 615. we're trying to consensus here, and you are making it harder.

i'll support a policy lynch against NJAC. i don't like a sns lynch because bubs was townish.

[onion]

ok that make sense.

VOTE: Unvote: Llamafluff
Vote: NJAC because policy lynch.

[onion]

hey llama, post you terrible scum type person

[onion]

derangement has a good plan.
1) everyone shuts up to minimize giving information to the scum (but please do post to show you are awake)
2) Llama tells us who he tracked, but not the results
3) that person tell us if they visited anyone last night
4) Llama tells us his full tracking results

[onion]

yeah well i heard that Grues traditionally consume both horses and oxen. that makes YOU a much more appealing meal, eh Equinox?

get it? Equinox = Equineox = Equine + Ox = Horses and Oxen !?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!

WHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

shut up

[onion]

Way to be useless and not even follow the instructions such that we might get info out of your entirely shitty anti town actions. I'm not sure why I expected anything better out of you.

VOTE: LlamaFLuff

[onion]

ok back. trying to stay interested in the game. probably do a vote analyais or something. catching up. brb

[onion]

ok, i was inspired by your impossible to read spreadsheet, and made my own.

Number of times each player placed a 2nd-5th vote on someone. AKA the Bandwagon-o-meter.
Tripod: 6
Derangement: 5
sns: 5
Equinox: 4
onion: 3
TTH: 3
CBD: 2
LLama: 2
Prawn: 2
GIF: 1
NJAC: 0

Number of times each player voted for NJAC or GIF. AKA The Scum-o-meter.
Derangement: 3
TTH: 2
Tripod: 2
sns: 2
Llama: 1
GIF: 1
onion: 1
CBD: 0
Equinox: 0
Prawn: 0
NJAC: 0

Ok, so people who happen to be on the top half of both lists are: Derangement, sns and Tripod. they are mathematically scummy. y u on there Derangement?!

So we got the whole fake-llama-track thing on Tripod. i don't particularly like either of them, but we should totally lynch Llama before we lynch Tripod. Llama and Prawn were having at it like fuck for a while, so they probably aren't both scum either. oh the web we weave.

Derangement is on the list, and i really like the guy, he's fantastically pro-town. If i was scum i would have NK'd him. instead, they NK'd GIF, who was pretty useless. i'm forced to consider that maybe Derangement is scum. it would make me sad though.

So right now, lynching Llama is the way to go. he's still terrible, and now killing him gets us info on BOTH. He also expressed early suspicions on GIF, who is town.

[onion]

the assumptions are that scum want to vote for townies, which seems like a pretty good assumption. townies sometimes vote for townies also, which creates noise. when scum vote for townies and don't vote for scum, they show up in vote analysis, and we can use it to find them. to prevent this, scum attempt to vote for scum about as often as a townie votes for scum, keeping them obscured in the noise. but scum voting for scum is anti-scum, and thus pro-town, and so it is in our interests to force scum to do this, and we do that by looking at vote analysis and using it as evidence to hunt scum.

i really wasn't expecting Derangement to show up on that list, and i really wasn't expecting him to not get NK'd. In my mind he's by far the most useful, townish, pro-town player. Because he didn't die, he might be scum. but i'm not really going to to pursue that right now. its a back burner sort of thing.

i am very confused over WHY the scum killed GIF. he was useless. he voted for TTH, then for NJAC. he liked Llama and Tripod, and suspected Prawn, NJAC and sns. did he vaguely hint at having a power role? i don't know why they'd NK someone who was lurker slacker and suspicious when they could have NK'd someone useful, pro-town and active.

[onion]

oh yeah and Tripod, please confirm. please tell us, clearly, if you did or did not visit someone last night.

[onion]

...llama makes a good point in 687.

The purpose of Derangement's plan was to maximize information generated by the track-claim.

If Llama was scum, it is unlikely that he'd fake a positive result. Instead he'd pick someone who he'd be pretty sure wasn't going to visit someone, then fake a negative result on them and hope for the best.

If he followed Derangement's plan, Scum!llama could target someone, possibly out their PR, and then just agree with whatever they said. it IS maximizing information, but its bad in this instance.

So Llama did it right just coming out with the full negative result. Had it been positive, we possibly should have went the other way around, and had him tell us who got targeted. That would give power roles the option to out themselves, or not, and the worst case situation is no worse than the other plan, but it has the chance to do better. let's do it THAT way next time.

Llama, sorry for the harsh words in 679. they were uncalled for in this instance. but you are still scum.

I'm willing to bet that sns and Prawn aren't scum either. the web gets webbier. (one way implication arrows go!)

Scum!Prawn -> Town!sns and Town!Llama -> Town!Tripod
Scum!sns -> Town!Prawn
Scum!Llama -> Town!Prawn

I'm not sure that prawn flipping town would tell us much about sns or Llama. we need to talk about that. someone tell me if Town!Prawn -> Scum!sns or Scum!Llama.

@Equinox, i always want to learn to make the math more powerful, and i've got all the data still here ready to be used. Tell me how you want the analysis built and i'll try my hand at ripping information out of the cold hard fingers of the math.

[onion]

ok i can see that, maybe. still seems like a poor reason to choose him above others though.

[onion]

well sure, there are plenty of things that are scummy that the vote analysis doesn't catch. However, the only thing a scum hunting tool has to do is to catch scum better than lynching at random. If you have a variety of tools, each of which works better than random, and you use them in combination with common sense and good ol evidence gathering, case building and scumhunting, then you'd end up better off than if you didn't have tools. one tool is the vote analysis.

[onion]

i suppose someone who just voted a huge ton would always have more votes on townies than other people. i could do <votes on townies> / <total votes> to find the percentage of votes they placed on townies. But people who vote more aren't actually good unless they talk more too. there should be a <Votes> / <Posts> percentage to see if someone just votes like crazy. People who's votes to content ratio are scummy, as are people who's town votes to total votes ratio is high. that would mean that to avoid showing up, scum would have to post lots of content per vote, which is something we want, and keep down their votes on townies, which is also something we want. those sound like good analysis!

-=Votes on NJAC or GIF / Total Votes=-
50% GIF: 1/2
33% Derangement: 3/9
33% TTH: 2/6
33% Llama: 1/3
25% Tripod: 2/8
25% sns: 2/8
20% onion: 1/5

-=Votes / Posts=-
25.00% sns: 8/(15+17)
14.81% Equinox: 4/27
09.68% CBD: 3/31
08.11% TTH: 6/74
08.04% Derangement: 9/112
07.84% Prawn: 4/51
07.04% onion: 5/71
06.90% GIF: 2/29
06.52% LLama: 3/46
04.68% Tripod: 8/171

I'm not sure the top one should include 1st votes on people, because we want to encourage scum to stick a 1st vote on someone and stay there pushing the case. that provides content and content we can use to scumhunt.

Are these analysis better than the previous? does it provide more useful information?

[onion]

if i were scum trying to pull of a tracker claim, i'd use a negative result. it is far more likely in most games for a player to not go anywhere at night than it is for them to visit. there are usually more VT's than there are town power roles, and there's usually at least as many sleeping scum as there are visiting ones. its simple math that negative tracking results are just more common.

then i'd pick someone who i thought was a VT, and who the town getting a track result on wouldn't really change anything, either because they thought so anyway, or they don't believe it, and say that that was the person i tracked.

Tripod is the ideal target for a fake track target. he's chaotic and anti-town, making him less valuable than some other players, and he probably would have played more conservatively had he had a power role, and not the most suspicious person in the thread at the moment. he's who i'd fake track if i was in scum in llama's position.

if i was town in llama's position i would have went for broke and tried to track scum. i'd have targeted my best scumread and crossed my fingers. it probably wouldn't have worked, but there's a chance i'd track scum, and that would blow this whole thing wide open. that'd be pretty good.

the problem is that track results are almost always useless. as a tracker i'd think it'd be better to gamble than to produce safe results, because the safe results aren't worth anything, and the gambling isn't worth less in the worst case, and a hell of a lot more in the best case. as a scum claiming tracker, i'd go for the useless safe results, because i'm trying to defend my claim rather than scumhunt.

[onion]

and @prawn, try to be useful.

I'm looking for reasons that if you were town other people would be scum. you could be useful for helping that out. tell me your opinion of sns and llama. Do you have anything to add to the Endangered Llama Case? your initial interaction with sns went... poorly... i'd say. do you have a case on him? does it have a catchy name?

[onion]

I'm learning the built in quote system! FEAR THE NESTED QUOTES!

if i was town in llama's position i would have went for broke and tried to track scum. i'd have targeted my best scumread and crossed my fingers. it probably wouldn't have worked, but there's a chance i'd track scum, and that would blow this whole thing wide open. that'd be pretty good.

Why is there no chance that UT was scum? Also why is trying to clear town bad? Especially when if I get lynched a player that you would try and call scum?

i would have targeted my best scumread, not a null or town read. there's totally a chance that tripod is scum, but you described your reasoning for targeting him to include you believing him town. you decreased your chances of finding scum.

if i were scum trying to pull of a tracker claim, i'd use a negative result. it is far more likely in most games for a player to not go anywhere at night than it is for them to visit. there are usually more VT's than there are town power roles, and there's usually at least as many sleeping scum as there are visiting ones. its simple math that negative tracking results are just more common.

Why use a negative result for one? Also... yeah... if you wanted to try and fake a result "went nowhere" is going to be best because its the most likely result. To the extent where if I have the setup right there are no more PRs... so unless I hit scum submitting the kill every other player will give the exact same result.

...what? a negative result is a 'went nowhere' result. you ask me why i'd use a negative result right after quoting why i'd use a negative result, and then agree with me that negative results are what you should use. so what?

My feelings on Llama are currently that him flipping either way would provide plenty of useful information, so we should do it. Furthermore, he'll probably flip scum and that'll be good too. if Llama flips to tracker i'd feel a lot better about Tripod, and if he flips scum i'd feel a lot better about prawn. if he flips VT then i'll send him a punch in the face via email for fakeclaiming as a VT.

[onion]

i'm pretty drunk right now. if you want convuluted strange answers to questions, now is the time to ask

[onion]

"if Llama flips to tracker i'd feel a lot better about Tripod, and if he flips scum i'd feel a lot better about prawn. if he flips VT then i'll send him a punch in the face via email for fakeclaiming as a VT."

i dunno if you make sense with tripod as both scum, probably not. you two were arguing before and i decided that you bother worn't scum before you fake-tracked him, and now that you did fake-track him i dunno maybe it makes it more likely again. but still probably not. if you flip tracker i'd feel better about tripod, but not as good as i'd feel if you flipped scum, because while tripod might have been scum dodging a tracker result, you ought not be scum with tripod due to your argument early in the game. it was pretty fierce. least i hope it was you and him arguing, otherwise none of this is going to make any sense. someone else remember for me if it was ut and tripod arguing super early? didn't i say earliery on that tripod and llama ought not both be scum?

so come to think of it, tripod is pretty townish even though i really don't like him, and while i say that lynching you will make me feel better about it, it looks like i'd feel better about it either way you flip, which means i probalby shouldn't be suspecting tripod at all, and not use him as a reason to lynch you. huh

note to sober self: figure that shit out yo

so no, you are tripod are probably not the scumpair. you might be part of the scumpair though.

and i didn't say anything about lynching prawn if you flip town. if you flip scum i'd very probably never lynch prawn, but if you flip town its null and i might or might not vote for prawn due to other things. were'nt you paying attention to the posts and posts of formal logic arugment i had with derangement?

[onion]

i'll tenativly agree (pending sober aproval) that tripod is townish, even though i hate him. but what's going on here is that at first you argued with tripod and i thought that you both couldn't be scum, but then you fake-tracked him, and so you both have the same alignment. so i suppose on the flip side, he could be scum regardless of your flip, depending on which of these i find more convining. i'm pretty sure i'd find your inital argument more convinging because the claim and track you produce are terrible.

and no, i'm rather suspicious of prawn, even though his bandwagon was possibly scumpowered, because it possibly was not. but because he was trying to lynch you for fucking ever, i find it unlikely for you both to be scum. its possible that he's scum and you aren't, but you aint both scum. that's useful information to be gleamed from lyinchign one of you. and you are the one who up and claimed and you're more anti-town than prawn is, so no tears will be shed for you.

in that you're the only posting person right now, it was you arguing with tripod early on, right? and i did say somewhere that you both ought not be scum? i probably didn't use ought, but maybe i did because its the best word ever.

i made steak!

[onion]

oops you all missed it. going to sleep. whoosh

[onion]

i keep waffling on if llama's hypothetical use of a track was protown or not. i mean, its presented as thought out and sense making, but i keep not liking it.

i'm going to disregard any possible outcome of a llama lynch other than Scum!Llama and Tracker!Llama because if he flips anything else, he deserves nothing but scorn forever and ever.

Tracker!Llama would be solely interested in forwarding town win-con, and that means using his power to provide as much useful information as possible. He presented his plan as trying to do this. Llama picked someone he had strong town reads on and tracked him. because tripod produced a negative result, that makes him a little bit more townish than he was before. while that is a benefit to the town, it seems like the track could have been better spent elsewhere.

Tracker!Llama could have tracked his strongest scum read. if his scumread was accurate, he'd get a 50% chance of hitting paydirt assuming 2 scum. 50% paydirt is a lot more paydirt than a bit of townish is worth. but if he was not very sure at all about his scumreads, it would make this harder. But Llama was rabblerousing yesterday about prawn forever and ever so he had a scumread he thought was solid.

so yeah i've convinced myself. Tracker!Llama should have tracked Prawn instead of Tripod. i would have believed his claim a lot more had this happened.

Scum!Llama, on the other hand, did exactly what he ought to do to forward his win-con. There'd be 2 paths to take here, the high risk and the low risk. low risk is fake-tracking someone others have a town-read on, and saying a negative result. this would make it very hard to disprove the role claim, and improve your longevity. the high risk route would involve picking someone you want to ace and saying a positive result on them, and trying to get them lynched, and then trying to fight off your own lynch the next day. which would be dumb but a lot more fun. people have said stuff about Llama being a conservative player.

so to those people: would Scum!Llama pick the low risk or the high risk route?

-=-

drunk me brought up something about Tripod and i really ought to hash that out and figure out if its true or not. he said

"if you flip tracker i'd feel better about tripod, but not as good as i'd feel if you flipped scum, because while tripod might have been scum dodging a tracker result, you ought not be scum with tripod due to your argument early in the game. "

so Llama and Tripod ought not both be scum because Tripod L-1'd Llama. However that statement is muddled by Tripod's known anti-win-con antics, and it seems entirely possible in my mind that scum!tripod would indeed L-1 his scumbuddy because tripod is crazy. but it can still be a loose implication at least. if you flip scum i won't stop suspecting Tripod. having it be you two would be like a nice scumbasket with a ribbon on top. If you flip tracker, i would actually feel a lot better about Tripod, because he is one of MY major scumreads, and someone I would have considered tracking. Getting a true negative result on him would make him less scummy. him l-1ing the tracker wouldn't make him more scummy because he's just crazy like that.

[onion]

does the majority of a majority system grant us one more mislynch before Lynch or Lose? i'm still a bit hazy about how it works. would be cool if it did that though.

@tripod, the thing here is that we have very real evidence right here in this very game. if we lynch Llama, we'll get less information out of it because we can't predict your method of interacting with him. A scumflip from Llama would go a long way to townifiying the average player in your situation, but your playstyle reduces the value of the information gained. for you, it only slightly townifys you. So your playstyle directly harms the town by reducing the value of information gained about you. flat out. that's why i don't like it.

however, i'll try to calm down about it and sugar coat my words for you, because you asked so nicely.

@CBD, i await with bated breath about why you want to lynch me, and why sns is scummier than pron. you can also answer Prawn's open question of "what are your thoughts on Llama's claim?"

[onion]

so that's a no? we don't get 1 more lynch before LoL?

if tripod were normal, i'd assume that scum!tripod wouldn't L-1 scum!llama, but because of his um er we'll go with chaotic neutral playstyle, i can't convince myself that he wouldn't do that thing. I've continually had a hard time understanding the game implications of Tripod actions, because he's just so different than anyone else in this game.

So scum!llama wouldn't much help tripod, because tripod MIGHT L-1 his buddy, and his buddy MIGHT try to clear him with a fake track. tracker!llama would help tripod more, because then it's a guaranteed true track, and those are at least worth something, and it'll probably outweigh him L-1ing our tracker.

so i guess my opinion has changed about tripod. he might be town, even though he's chaotic neutral. i don't want to lynch him today right now.

[onion]

(hungover) i have my doubts that a replacement is going to catch up in 4 days. sns was scummy, and he panicked when whoever it was (prawn?) dissed him when he first posted. plus active lurking is no bueno. we could policy lynch him, because that worked so well last time. i'd support a llama or sns lynch at this moment. plus it'd save some poor hapless replacement from having to read 32 pages of mostly bullshit.

[onion]

woo this guy's great! lets keep him.

1) yes i do that, i post lots, i love math and logic and theory. i have a terrible memory and so i summarize everything for myself and you people too so i can remember what i thought at the time. i never thought about how it might be anti-town to make long posts because people won't read it though. i always thought it was anti-town to not read my posts. but maybe not, maybe i should include tldr's for people who are too anti-town to read my apparently anti-town long posts. there's an idea.

2) yes i do that, but its objectively better to lynch the equally scummy person that will produce more info on flip. for example, if Equinox and Llama were equally scummy (which they are not, equinox is great!) and Llama had tons of interesting, information rich interactions with people while Equinox did not, it would be better to lynch Llama instead of Equinox. Thus 'this guy will produce lots of info on flip' is a good point to consider when picking who to lynch. nothing is the ONLY thing to lynch on (well, ya know except for scum-claims and stuff) but it's totally a reason to pick one scummy person over another.

3) yes, but its because i hate him. you'll be happy to know i calmed down about it though, see post 775.

4) um, the suspicious seats on the bandwagon are the not-first-or-last regardless of the flip. scum want to lynch townies, so will pile on, and scum want to be on wagons that lynch scum if the wagon is going to happen anyway. what scum don't want to do is place a first vote on their buddy, then push the case, work it up and finally lynch them, because that's a lot of work that could have been put into lynching a townie instead. its just self-defeating. so middle seats are just scummy. early seats are more scummy on town-wagons and later seats are more scummy on scum-wagons. maybe the hammer is scummy on scum-wagons i dunno, case by case.

5) people keep bringing this up and i'm fuzzy on it. we know there's (at least was) power roles out there, and we can suss out kinda sorta what they ought to be by what we know, and we can use this information to judge people's roleclaims, and that's useful. i've always assumed that our power roles aren't going to be like 'oh you talking about doctors thats me!' because that would be entirely terrible. but i don't really get why people consider the discussion of roles without claims to be scummy. please tell me.

--) that god damn drunk housemate thing again. its really truly my drunk housemate. he's funny because he's dumb, and this time he read the list of names and picked some people. i posted them so that at the end of the game i'll know if it turned out he was right or not and that'll be funny too. ITS NOT A BREADCRUMB.

tldr: because long posts are anti-town without tldrs: GC is great. i won't support a lynch on him right now.

[onion]

oh, while my college doesn't really do subsections within the math masters program, my subsection of choice is research algebra. i also have a degree in technical philosophy, which is where the implication stuff came from. i'm a bit mad at myself for not remembering it better. also i'm not taking any classes this semester because money. but NEXT SEMESTER! OR ELSE!

[onion]

we totally did that modus ponens stuff way back in philosophy, and i assumed i could just up and do it again but i guess not. in hindsight doing it with sets would have made a lot more sense.

[onion]

help me understand this thing called rolefishing that people tell me i'm doing and that i'm scum for.

[onion]

sure. i know that outing the power roles is bad, but understanding what sort of roles to expect is useful for judging roleclaims, which are going to happen most scum lynches and some town lynches. 'never lynch claimers' is a bad plan. 'always lynch claimers' would be less bad, but there's probably a middle ground between the two thats even better. something like 'always lynch claimers if their claim is stupid'. determining if the claim is stupid requires knowledge of what roles to expect, so why is talking about that considered suspicious?

[onion]

@equiniox, no this is my 2nd game of mafia for this iteration. there were 4ish back in 2009 but i was dumb back then. i also played in Spies 7, which was ultra mafia and probably the coolest thing ever. 50ish people, subforums, multiple alignments, games and activities, twas very cool.

@GC, 4) ok i'll try again. i am totally suspecting people for being on the Llama bandwagon, because the scummy seats are all but the first one and the hammer. each of those seats is a bit scummy. somewhere in there is a tipping point vote, which actually causes the lynch, and that one is much more or much less scummy based on the flip and situation. also the flip might make early or later votes more scummy, but at the very minimum, every middle seat is a little scummy. you say that this wouldn't hold true for a scum-bandwagon, but it would, because busing happens. so no, i haven't used a town-bandwagon-reviewing-method to check out the llamawagon, i've used a universal-bandwagon-reviewing-method to check it out. it'll works regardless of the flip.

-=-

my favorite dream team scum duo Llama/Tripod. it would be like a big basket with bows and chocolates. Tripod L-1's him with no fear of scum jumping on, then they hate on each other, then they kiss and make up, its a scum love story. and so sweet. probably not true, but it would so totally cool if it was. if one of them flips scum then i'd put this dream into STONE COLD LOGICAL CASE form and see if it held up, but its not important right now.

tldr: wat up CG, argue with me!

[onion]

@equinox fuck if i know how i've changed in the past 5 years. i was a dumb kid back then, and didn't have the mental power to do it right.

spies 7 is um....
http://spies7.proboards.com/
but its fucking big. we each had a confessional, which contains most of the interesting interactions with others as well as just posts to yourself. oh i guess they got moved, so in each episode look for Sophi's Word, which is the thread for that. i was sophi. (VT)

@Llama, only 7. you play in one of those?

@TTH, llama is right. get in here and post content.

[onion]

oh, deadline is tomorrow. lets get on this shall we?

Lynch Llama because: (a repeat of 543, plus the claim stuff)
Llama suspecting GIF super early on, then changing to like him due to bad reasons is suspicious.
Llama suspecting Tripod, then moving his vote to Prawn in 303, and we never hear a peep about tripod again, is suspicious.
Llama invented the 'preservation vote' thing, then used it as evidence against Prawn.
in 421, Llama pushes Prawn, but doesn't actually ask questions or anything. its not scumhunting.

Also, he claimed and did that terrible plan of his, making the claim un-provable. that's how a scum would do it.

Also also, good info on from the flip either way!

GC's replacement in is fantastic. and Bub's was fantastic. i'm willing to write sns off as a terrible player in an otherwise townish slot.

-=-

but who else would i possibly consider lynching hmmm... i guess i really don't suspect tripod much anymore, although i can't really decide why. maybe i just became jaded to his shenanigans.

i could tolerate a lurk-policy-lynch on CBD, he hasn't posted since the 17th. i guess. its far from optimum, but everyone else (except TTH) i have read on. i guess i could consider a lurk-lynch on TTH too. neither of them are the scum dream team. i won't lynch the rest of you.

[onion]

Llama suspecting GIF super early on, then changing to like him due to bad reasons is suspicious.

So I am scum because my town tell (which was true) is something you don't think is a tell... okay...

towntell waht?

Llama suspecting Tripod, then moving his vote to Prawn in 303, and we never hear a peep about tripod again, is suspicious.

Really? Im pretty sure I continued to call him a secondary suspect the entire day. I actually called him a good scum pick at the end of the day.

link please

Llama invented the 'preservation vote' thing, then used it as evidence against Prawn.

Same meaning, different wording. Do you consider "backing counterwagons to yours" self-preservation or is it something else to you? That sure sounds like the same thing to me.

kinda a semantic argument, i'm willing to drop it. too hard to argue what you meant by the term.

in 421, Llama pushes Prawn, but doesn't actually ask questions or anything. its not scumhunting.

Its still scumhunting. Are cases and scumhunting two different things to you?

thing is you didn't have a case. you didn't have questions. you were just pushing nothing.

Also, he claimed and did that terrible plan of his, making the claim un-provable. that's how a scum would do it.

So unless I hit scum submitting the kill or a PR I am scum for my action... THAT makes perfect sense. Its called basic strategy for a tracker, its literally what you balance the game for, you are looking to make a role that is going to get a result for a fairly solid town tell.

If you don't understand that I don't know what to tell you, but most information roles are balanced to find town, not scum, because that is what they are most likely to target. Its like if you are looking at a cop, when designing the role you should be far more interested in the scenario where they are alive D3 with two clear players, than what happens if they catch scum N1.

i don't have much game construction knowledge. i'd appreciate one of you experienced people to take this one for me. Equinox? GC?

Also also, good info on from the flip either way!

I thought you already admitted that my flip doesn't really effect your reads either way.

i never said that your flip wouldn't affect my reads either way, pretty sure i've been saying the inverse of that. what i did say was that your flip would affect my read on tripod less because tripod. still some though. good info on Prawn as well. i could probably whisk up some TTH in there as well.

but good point. TTH, don't be an sns, why did you vote NJAC?

[onion]

:/ well sleep and then work for the next 18 hours, that means i'll be available for the few hours before lynch. try not to lynch equinox while i'm gone.

[onion]

try not to lynch equinox was a joke related to how we enjoy wildly swinging the lynch around in the last few hours, and ending up lynching someone we weren't planning to only a few hours before. i just picked the least likely to be lynched player.

while i found the GIF lynch very strange, this one made more sense, because Equinox was cool. Derangement is also cool, which makes me wonder why he isn't dead also. its a bit suspicious. and derangement's wondering about why both he and tripod are alive might make more sense if we didn't assume derangement must be town. just saying.

the llama flip provides us with good information, which i really should compile some time soon, so i'll post that when i get to it.

we probably shouldn't lynch tripod. and green crayons is cool too. i guess i should work on some town reads other than those, but that'll have to wait until after the llamaflipinfo. so i'll get right on that. yeah. maybe tomorrow. i don't work tomorrow.

[onion]

so, Tripod and Llama had bouts early on, but that's because tripod is tripod, thus null. Llama's track was accurate, and Tripod really didn't go anywhere N1. that's townish.

Llama and Prawn had bouts, and Prawn isn't Tripod, so this is scumish.

we still have a not both Prawn and sns.

Llama suspected TTH+Prawn, and we should at least have a passing interest in his suspicious, being confirmed town and all.

GIF also voted for TTH. we have enough confirmed townies for vote analysis to maybe be useful. i'll do that.

[onion]

blah busy busy, vote analysis got half done yesterday, i'll fisnish to tonight. the middle-seats-are-scummy system cares not for the random voting stage and treats them just like any other vote. this is because scum don't actually make random votes, and that's who we're trying to catch.

[onion]

Vote analysis (as of dawn of day 3)

-=Was in a suspicious middle seat this many times=-
9 - Tripod
6 - Derangement
5 - GC
4 - onion
4 - prawn
3 - TTH
2 - CBD

-=Placed a vote on NJAC, GIF, Llama or Equinox this many times=-
6 - TTH
5 - Tripod
4 - onion
4 - prawn
3 - Derangement
3 - GC
2 - CBD

-=Tipping points=-
Day 1, the tipping point is either 3rd or 4th vote. i'll list both.

D1 Page-1-Llamawagon, 3rd was Equinox(017), 4th was Prawn(025).
D1 Wagon-of-Onions, 3rd was CBD(142), 4th was Derangement(154).
D1 Abandoned-Marquis-Wagon, 3rd was Derangement(262), 4th was Tripod(309).
D1 Prawn-o-Wagon, 3rd was Tripod(388), 4th was Derangement(425).
D1 Revenge-of-the-Wagon-of-Onions, 3rd was Equinox(466), 4th was GC(473).
D1 Tracker-Revealing-Llamawagon, 3rd was me(566), 4th was CBD(567), then TTH moved his vote to NJAC(603) and Prawn put a 4th on llama(615).
D1 NJAC-Lynch-Wagon, 3rd was Derangement(604), 4th was me(636).
D2 Llamahate-Wagon, 3rd vote is Prawn(866).

-=Town Tippers=-
3 - Prawn
2 - Derangement +1 if you count me as town.
2 - onion
1 - CBD +1 if you count me as town.
1 - Tripod
0 - GC +1 if you count me as town.
0 - TTH

-=-

Me, Tripod, Prawn and Derangement show up in the top half of those lists. Tripod shows because he's tripod and i'm not scum, so Prawn and Derangement are the mathematically scummy ones? or something like that.

[onion]

i'll dig up what the last reads from each confirmed townie were too. that might be useful.

NJAC in his one useful post fingered Llama and TTH.

GIF had to go way back (242) to find this, but he lists Prawn, NJAC and GC.

Llama was obvious, which is nice at least TTH + Prawn, Those are your two.

Equinox in 872 fingers Llama and TTH.

so 3 out of 4 doctors recommend TTH. that's something to think about. oh and also the good ol' Cogito List Case! Where's that?!

-=Cogito List=- (017)
ChannelDelibird
Equinox (town)
GuyInFreezer (town)
LlamaFluff (town)
Untrod Tripod

That's a point against CBD right there.

[onion]

so in conclusion

Prawn - had bouts with Llama, was suspected by GIF and Llama, chief town tipper.
TTH - 3 out of 4 doctors, loved voting for townies.
CBD - Cogito List, very lurky.
Derangement - Strangely shows up on vote analysis, doesn't get NK'd even though i'd NK him if i were scum.
Tripod - got tracked.
GC - is awesome.

Give me things to add.

[onion]

GC916 "Actually read the Llama/prawn debate and tell me you don't come out agreeing with prawn."
oh haven't done this yet.

also what is sheeping?

also also add to the lists

Prawn - + Not scum with GC
Tripod - + is tripod.

although i did like Prawn's 919.

also also also i'm not liking Derangement posts lately. 905 contains a question for me about not lynching equinox, which he then dropped, and 915 contains questions for GC which are then dropped in 920. it kinda looks like showing off bait cases to see who bites. maybe its scumhunting though.

and @GC, its not that its a scum hunting tech on its own, but that vote analysis, if i can figure out how to do it right, could point out people working against town win-con and show evidence against them. so for scum to avoid showing up on it, they'd have to tone down their scum-win-con actions, which is good for town either way. either it points out scum, or it makes them play nice. that being said, i'm not sure i'm doing it right. the numbers are right, but i've yet to figure out acceptable lists to include. i think the best way to do it would be to have 5-8 lists that detect scum-win-con actions, and then have a metalist about the people most often at the top of the other lists. its a work in progress.

[onion]

drunking posting is cool

[onion]

prawn, why do think that votes without stating your reasons are acceptable at this point? we've been getting screwed by this the entire game, and yet here we are on page 38 thousand and still you do this. but i guess you want us to ask you why you voted every fucking time you vote, so fine.

Hey prawn, mind telling us your thoughts on the situation? why are you voting for GC?

[onion]

only scum would post pandas

[onion]

alright, time to do my part to unstall this shit, because stalling is anti-town.

Tripod, you want to lynch TTH? Both Llama and Equinox didn't like the guy either. Equinox, in 872, is (probably?) agreeing with Derangement's excellently formatted wicket cool boxes post 870. So i'm going to assume those reasons were Equinox's reasons. those reasons boil down to lurking and failing to scumhunt or answer questions, which pretty much just means lurking.

Llama was dead set on TTH, partially because of TTH refusing to answer questions, and partially because of lurking, and partially probably for other reasons but i can't tell because he sucked at explaining himself.

I'd like to add that TTH also voted for our confirmed townies an astounding 6 times, even more than you tripod! so there's that.

If you would be so kind tripod, please to agree or disagree with the above, and add a few reasons of your own if you have them.

-=-

@Prawn, dear prawn, your reasons for voting are not clear, hence my asking. your refusal to answer these sort of questions hurts the town. are you voting GC because you kinda disagreed with kinda half of his kinda cases against me? that's what 919 indicates at least, but it seems like you didn't disagree strongly enough to warrent a vote, and if you did, then why didn't you vote at the time? explain thyself.

-=-

wag now to tackle this GC drunken stuff with poor punctuation. your thing on Derangement has something going for it. i dislike Derangement's recent much more cautious testing of the waters than his previous full frontal logical scumhunting. i guess i don't really have a question for you. keep not lurking, yo.

@TTH and CBD: POST GOD DAMNIT

[onion]

I'll also accept a scumclaim or a self-vote as acceptable low-effort alternatives.

I don't bus.

O_O

[onion]

derangement, i see you vote hopping and i don't like it. what's this noise with FOSing GC? didn't i see one of your reasons for suspecting him is because you suspect TTH? you seemed to swap between targeting TTH to targeting GC pretty damn fast. as far as i can tell, the primary lynch reason against TTH is lurking, but we have a far more prolific lurker than she. If we can get a CBD replacement rolling quickly, and they are even half as good as GC at replacing, i'd have no problems with a policy+kinda sorta scummy lynch on TTH.

but i do have a problem with a GC lynch. that guy's awesome. Bubs was awesome and pro-town, sns was... not town pandering at least, and then GC comes in with amazing cases, data, things that make sense, really pro-town stuff that he really didn't need to do as scum. Sure, the i don't bus thing is irksome, but it ain't all that.

i'm hesitant to go into day 4 with lurkers still present. i really want to fix that. TTH is scummier than CBD only because we have more data on her than the bird. so even though it seems like a better lynch, it isn't really. we should replace one and lynch the other. i won't vote for GC or tripod at this moment.

[onion]

but its not a bus, its a first vote. I've been expressing enough doubts about you that scum!GC could have mustered a reason to vote for you instead of bus his buddy. there would be no reason for scum!GC to vote for scum!TTH at that point in the game.

[onion]

i guess you'll forever be CBD in my head, no matter how many times i correct my posts. sorry. I don't actually suspect the delibird, because i don't think anything of him because i have no read because he lurks. the most recent flow of posts is very heartening, and if he keeps it up i see no reason to lynch him until he does something scummy. his most recent posts are not scummy.

that means one lurker left.

Ghostvote: TTH

[onion]

/me shrug

VOTE: TTH

L-1

[onion]

(drunk) yes GC is still awesome, the person i'd be willing to vote for is... YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUuuuuuuuuuu!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'm not very happy about CBD, but our lack of information about him prevents us from doing anything useufl about it. i'm really glad the tripod flipped town because i would have felt really bad about discounting his terrible behavior only to have him be scum. i'd have to lynch every anti-town for the rest of my life. but no it turned out ok, except that he's dead and we're losing. ya know except for that. whos even still alive in this game?...

CBD is alive, we don't know anything about him, maybe a replacement will come in. it isn't reasonable to lynch a lurker at LYLO.
Derangement is alive, he's suspicious primarliy because if i were scum i would have killed him long before i killed anyone else other htan maybe equinox. tripod was too scummy to be scum, and derangement is too town to not have been night killed.
I'm alive, i'm not scum (just in case you were wondering)
GC is alive, he's awesome. i really liked bubs, and sns was so terrible that i can't really use his tells to be useful with bubs or GC tells, and GC came in with amazing power, and i really like both him and his slot.

and fucking prawn is still alive. the other condender for the today lynch. i ought to do a bunch of reading and decide if i want to lynch him instead of derangement. that would probablly feel better, because i really like derangement, he just happens to probably be scum. which is sad. yeah re-reading prawn stuff, i'll totally get right on that. yup. (watches gravity falls)

[onion]

what, everyone's waiting for prawn. prod him.

[onion]

vote for yourself

[onion]

this inactivity is dumb, but i'm pretty much over it. lets just lynch either derangement or prawn and see if we lose. i mean that's what's going to happen anyway in a few days, and we all suck too much to post useful content.

GC already expressed his willingness to vote for prawn or derangement. I want the CDB to say it too, then we can just do it and see what happens.

i suppose i could just vote. i don't see us lynching someone else today, and i don't see any arguments happening either due to inactivity. lets just lynch and end it.

i guess i'll vote for prawn because derangement is so fun. i really like him, he plays fantastically, and i'd love to be in more games with him. he just happens to probably be scum this game. Prawn is lurky and scummy. i'd much rather lose to derangement than lose to prawn.

VOTE: Prawneater

[onion]

i don't even care anymore, and its not like CBD is actually going to post anything useful, and its not like i actually care what prawn is going to say.

[onion]

whoah, that happened.

sorry derangement, you are good people. GC too, i also really enjoyed playing with Equinox. see yall in another game sometime.

[onion]

i'm a freaking bodyguard, and i've been trying to die the entire time, but it just wouldn't happen. was protecting derangement. i probably should have protected tripod the night he died, but i didn't because i'm dumb.

[onion]

also for a long time everyone was going on about some early town-tell from me, but for the life of me i don't know what it is. care to enlighten me?

[onion]

ALSO i'm disturbed about the existence of the too-pro-town scumtell. why is that a thing?

[onion]

also i'm drunk