Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[Gyre and Gimble]

You have been scumhunting pie for quite a large portion of the game and have made waves. What has muffinslot done?

Answered this?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Fair, I'll wait for you get through today to discuss Soft.

And I did respond to your Post 1622, bottom paragraph of my Post 1623, I do have some issues with RBDs play the largest being that I've yet to see a post from him that's read

super

town, I can understand a lot of his reads and thoughts (ie. re; pie) but none of it has been enough to move him to my ubertown read section and there's really been a lack of scumhunting and content from him and I can see that making sense coming from him as scum giving up on the game but at the moment I'm really in a waiting position of trying to get a solid read inside you/him/soft and I think the case/arguments against Soft makes more sense than the RBD one, Empire disagrees and I have no work this weekend so I'll be online when he is then to discuss it more then.

[Gyre and Gimble]

back on the com, beginning catchup...


btw im hooked on the mirror's edge playthrough. looks like i'll be watching that instead of anikme

[Gyre and Gimble]

/50

that's 23 minutes according to sonic

[Gyre and Gimble]

/60

im done

[Gyre and Gimble]

40 mins or so

[Gyre and Gimble]

Fairly confident Quil is playing to his scum meta btw

read day 1... that is quil's town meta

his day 2 posts were shite but i don't blame you. day 1 was quil town

look at this:

Spoiler: cherrypick obvtown quil posts

My name is Broderick Drake and some people have described me as a rancid fellow. I am just popping in to inform you that

we are a PGO

- whether or not you choose to believe us is up to you (I cannot think of a reason we would lie about this, though), but you have been warned, so don't target us!

????

I read it as town-ish because I can imagine that being something Town!Quilford would contemplate (especially with by absence from the thread despite being online elsewhere at the time, something he was aware of)

This isn't something I was aware of actually! But I'll take your townpoints anyway. Om nom nom

I'm worried that people will be swayed by his influence as a player and wind up scum reading me for poor/incorrect reasons as a result.

gotta say, really don't like this one bit. don't think anyone in this playerlist would be swayed by regfan's 'influence' (largely because they're all pretty competent themselves)

I do think people getting on my back about halting my Soft push are conspiracy theorising. Uh no, I think all my early points are valid, I think the slip is eminently fakeable (and am definitely going to look into it more when I'm not on my phone) and I don't like Soft's reaction to whomever posted that he likes making scummy entrances for the purposes of getting people's reactions (again will elaborate later). I still don't think he's scumhunted at all and I think the reasoning he gave for his townreads was weak.

Thinking my sigh was me not being able to conceal my irritation that another mislynch had escaped me is hilariously stupid. In actuality, it was because I was worried about adding another townread to an already large pile.

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

I think all my early points are valid

not even remotely valid tbh. i can see why someone could perceive it that way if they thought poorly constructed posts were scummy.

How about if they thought posts that contained a sum total of fuck all were scummy?

*Quil's inner monologue*

Wow. Apparently if I had unvoted at the time, I would be looking a lot more town now! Damn, will have to remember not to make that mistake again in future scum games

Soft, I want you to explain the "Most legitimate scum-tells are invalid in this setup" stance from Post 367, run me through what scum-tells exactly are invalidated due to the setup and why that's the case.

Speaking of tells, did you ever do this?

A

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

Want this explained in detail please - think you've seen both Empire/myself as scum/town enough to know that we're town here.

You've seem me as scum/town enough to know that I'm town here, hasn't stopped you from having doubts has it?

Also zMuff I deffos remember you reading me with laser precision in Amrun's Otters vs Tigers vs Sharks Mafia and in a Kise (I think) game that was similar to Triplicate Mafia in setup but had a video game theme iirc

I'm still trying to figure out what I make of Quil vs. S-S.

I agree with most of what S-S is posting. if he was "try hard scum", as Quil is saying, then it would make more sense that he would actually read the whole game, or pull up more than 3 quotes, or do anything that actually ... you know, requires trying hard. 605 also completely misses S-S' point (that Quil conveniently dropped that S-S' posts were "genuine" after he got accused of it being disingenuous), which I also agree with.

I also hate Quil's insistence that S-S is "agreeing" with him in 613. it's pretty obvious what S-S is saying there is that if he was scum he'd try to make a more effortful post than the one he made *in this game*; not that he'd try to make more effortful posts in general.

on the other hand, I disagree that Quil-town would need to unvote S-S at the point where he thought S-S was genuine. you'll notice my vote is still on GB despite reading them as town (lol). most of the time, if I don't have someone I feel strongly that I want to push/lynch, I don't care about where my vote is. if I scum read him, it wouldn't be for this.

@Quil:

when did you supposedly "reread" S-S and why did you not mention it when you did so (since I don't remember you posting anything along the lines of "I looked at S-S again, I think I was wrong" until right at this point. correct me if I'm wrong)? also would like to know your thoughts on what I said in the 3rd paragraph here.

I'm continually rereading players. Especially when I start to get a sense that they could be scum, I'll go through their ISOs and look at their posts in context whenever I have a spare minute. I do remember rereading between #533 and #581 because I remember feeling like I had been disarmed by his posts around #529, #532 etc.

I think perhaps a lot of the problem here is that I've been using the word 'tryhard' to mean something that other people aren't quite picking up on. When I called Soft's first non two-sentence post 'tryhard' I meant that it contained no useful analysis and therefore looked like it had been posted for the sake of appearing active, engaged and therefore town.

Re your third paragraph, I didn't pick up on that interpretation of Soft's words at all. I thought he was repeating what I had said back at me in order to try and make a point about circularity.

I do think people getting on my back about halting my Soft push are conspiracy theorising. Uh no, I think all my early points are valid, I think the slip is eminently fakeable (and am definitely going to look into it more when I'm not on my phone) and I don't like Soft's reaction to whomever posted that he likes making scummy entrances for the purposes of getting people's reactions (again will elaborate later). I still don't think he's scumhunted at all and I think the reasoning he gave for his townreads was weak.

Thinking my sigh was me not being able to conceal my irritation that another mislynch had escaped me is hilariously stupid. In actuality, it was because I was worried about adding another townread to an already large pile.

Starting to get a bit wary of GB.

In what regard?

-b

I didn't really like that he was content to give Soft townpoints based on the slip and EM meta (which as he's said cuts both ways, because apparently Soft on EM is quite capable of faking slips) despite Soft's scumhunting still being all but nonexistent... didn't really strike me as a Regfan thing to do. The EM meta discussion also had a softbuddying edge to it as well imo.

Still consider GB town on the whole though.

Why would scum even bother to make a post that contains shit all if they didn't think they would get points for at least looking like they were doing something? Especially valid in your case considering it was already a couple pages in and it was your first post of the game that wouldn't be longer than two sentences or something.

You're begging the question here by assuming that he's scum and then attributing motivation here
Unless you think 'tryharding' (which feels just like a loaded phrase) is a thing that only scum would do?
Or that "posting a post" is some sort of tell because that's all you really seem to accuse him of doing here

I don't know this whole thing presupposes SS is scum and I don't understand why you're doing that

-b

It doesn't actually presuppose anything of the sort? I hope my explanation above of what I was trying to convey by use of the word 'tryhard' clears up your confusion.

I certainly do; I still have no real idea where where your thoughts are on a lot of the players in the game other then "Townish!", there's not a huge amount of detailed explanations behind reads listed and the larger parts of when you do touch on it is after I've pushed you for stances which is a huge problem I'm having with you. Also you wanted someone to be online at the same time as you, I popped on but there's not much you seem to want to discuss, I'm around for the next hour if you're still interested in discussing reads, tomorrow night works for me too.

Please. You haven't had to push me for stances, you've had to ask me for them. You certainly haven't had to be 'dragging them out' of me, as you originally said—that implies some sort of resistance on my end. Prompting people for their thoughts happens in Mafia games literally all the time.

My biggest problem, and it's one that others are having too, is that it's really hard to get a read off of people who seem to be doing a lot of scumhunting with the aid of meta. As my scumhunting style depends massively on the analysis of rhetoric and semantics, I'm often at a loss when looking at these large meta walls because I'm not familiar with players' histories and thus ill-equipped to judge the conviction and genuineness of the cases being made. Yes, I know I'm making excuses. I think they're pretty good ones tho.

I originally asked, what, six hours ago? Since then I've been dealing with study, dinner and

The Killing Season

. If you want to shoot me a couple questions now go for it.

these 2 mainly, or you can click that spoiler for a damned quote wall

[Gyre and Gimble]

in fact,

VOTE: S-S

I think basically everyone in this game has done a bunch of shit that's borderline unfakeable. go back and read S-S' posts. they all are pretty town, sure, but in terms of things that are absolutely-certainly coming from town? there's nothing there except possibly the town slip from the start and both heads of GB said that was fakeable coming from him.

if you disagree, comment on why I'm incorrect to town read RBD for adopting a strategy that doesn't make sense as scum. or why I'm wrong that it's really dumb for Quil to replace out as scum in this position. or why what I'm saying here about S-S' interactions with Yuriko doesn't make sense, or why you're reading them as town. or DO ANYTHING.

you are incorrect to townread RBD for adopting a strategy that doesn't make sense as scum. THATS THE WAY IT IS. the reasoning is already wonky

plus, RBD has a strategy that i don't think you're picking up? no, pushing sangres wasnt the strategy, try again. the strategy is to *just fucking survive*. survive the bulletstorm, survive the lynches, and nuke them all at once. don't make waves, stay inconspicuous, don't make shitty pushes that will come back to bite you once your target becomes an undead treestump.

as i said, my theory is that he planned to bus pre-game. yuriko probably was like "hi sweet partner, how are you! its my first game as scum, and i don't know what to do ;-; I hope you can please guide me! <3" and muffina probably went " bye *pushes her off the building*"

his vote on yuriko stuck since page 5 and never moved. there is no attempt to scumhunt in his ISO. no attempt to push or interact with people to get a+ townreads. i want you to show me a game where a player moves his vote only once a day (and days are 45 pages long) with this number of posts and doesnt flip fucking scum, lol. its obviously a hard ass buss because that's the only way the game goes

every single one of you had S-S as "town" or "100% town" until pie posted his case so i'm a bit irritated with GB's pokes. nonetheless, i don't think any player has adequately explained muffina town or anything that shows him scumhunting, engaged in the game, or whatever. in fact, he looks like he's ready to quit


GB's method of finding ubertown posts are good

i've found ubertown posts for every player here, included quilford, which i posted above. except muffina.

ok, S-S *may* be fooling me, and maybe my scumdar sucks or whatever, but im betting on muffina

[Gyre and Gimble]

I actually read Muffins Post 1430 as town, won't elaborate on it just yet, want to talk with Empire and see if he picks what I'm reading town about it otherwise I'm worried he's just going to agree with me (It's probably the largest issue I've had with this game, I feel like my reads and thoughts are too influential on him).

this is really strange, because i picked up 1430 and read it as really bad

the entirety of the post is useless and doesn't contribute to the gamestate. i wrote in my hydra pt ":uselessposting:". the first paragraph is a prodge excuse, second paragraph is *lol i have no reads everyone maybe town* in a paragraph. 3rd paragraph, also useless


what does Empire say about it?

[Gyre and Gimble]

I maintain that if RBD is scum here they had what was potentially a free mislynch basically lined up already and then chose not to follow through with it for no apparent reason.

i wrote about this. what is the long-term plan for your theory? muffina lynches sangres, who flips town... then what? let's not forget sangres's conftown dead soul haunting the thread... and seeing that gobshite push from muffina, that would probably end badly. he needs 3 mislynches. that's only one.

so the plan isn't to go for sangres from the get go. your reasoning is incorrect

[Gyre and Gimble]

ok time to go play a game of smite then pack my bag for school then go to bed

ask me any questions, im fully caught up, expect a nice sweet tasty nuke from hito coming soon

[Gyre and Gimble]

Hey look, I found buried treasure in the RBD ISO:

I gotta tell you, being scum in this game would probably literally depress me

Having to deal with confirmed town nacho/regfan/ffery/empire/muffin/tammy etc. talking the entire game while I'm scum (depending on who my buddy would be obv)

like I'd just fucking quit

I'd take solace in the fact they'd lynch the people not in our clique like we do every game first, lol.

Yuriko bus grows less surprising the more I look at it.

Pie:

Let's take the time to put your thoughts on RBD together. So you figure that one half of RBD locks on to Yuriko instantly, and that their two sentence thought about why YJ is scum was enough for them to feel totally done with pushing the issue (even though their very next paragrpah implies their read is turing back with "I'm ambivalent, want to see non-setup related thoughts.). Then, the other hydra head doesn't agree with the evaluation of YJ scum and pushes out elsewhere while continually pointing out "I think YJ's stuff are just newbtells." The hydra head who thinks YJ is scum could still put the vote in play elsewhere to appease their buddy, while seeing how YJ plays without the pressure. Or they could post additional justification for a YJ wagon in thread. Or they could sync up with their buddy until their reads are the same. But they do

none

of these things. Instead, their vote stays right the heck on YJ - who holds to their page 5 vote the entire day when they post 100 times?

For illustrative purposes, here are my d1 votes from my last completed game, Papers Please:

Spoiler: D1 town vote mobility

I wonder if Equi does VC ghosts.

Unvote

Vote: Dinare

Because that looks like an infinitive ending, but dinar isn't a verb at all. Pretty suspicious.

that otolia post is kinda gross. no random vote or nuthin. Like he's already scared there's content he's gotta fake so he gives what essentially feels like a prod dodge post in a game where nothing's happened.

Unvote, Vote: Otolia

Otalia is probably still scum but I want to see what his posts look like as we keep on truckin'.

Unvote, Vote: Kop

I wanted to wait for Wrong Song to answer me before thinking of vote swappin' because I think the answer would be a bit more useful if I wasn't voting him, but my heart is telling me Wrong Song and I'm pretty sick of waiting to be honest

Unvote, Vote: Wrong Song

hito, who would you rather lynch out of PB/elusive?

ooh this is a good question. I think elusive actually is putting me off more with recent posts but PB is more realistic. PB has the vanilla claim also, which makes him a bit safer I guess.

yah I want elusive, PB is more consolation prize flavored.

unvote, vote: elusive

THAT BEING SAID. out of game stuff is always annoying and tunes out scumdars, and in those situations I like to step back a bit and see what happens when the person involved re-normalizes. even though I think elusive has been playing pretty scum motivated, after a big old throwdown like that, it throws a bunch of noise in trying to interpret her latest stuff.
anyway. CO claimed confirmable so his wagon is off the table today. let's just lynch kop.

Unvote, Vote: kop

wheeee

Now yeah obviously RBD isn't the same player as me, but seriously. They have even more reason to either continually re-justify the vote or to have a fluid vote, because, if they're town, they know that there's a confirmed alignment player who doesn't agree with them. Instead, in a day nearly twice as long as the one in my spoiler block, they sit on that YJ vote until judgement day.

And I mean,

shit

, look at their fucking walls like 316 and 658. When they wrote those walls, their vote was on YJ because "I kinda didn't like that early post, and they haven't caught up since then." What an absurd disconnect. But it makes a lot of sense if you're trying to lay groundwork for mislynches while making sure that YJ doesn't get lynched without you on her wagon.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Yuriko bus grows less surprising the more I look at it.

even i didn't understand what you saw in 478... mind explaining ?

[Gyre and Gimble]

... oh I see

rbd was speaking from his heart. he's taking solace because he is scum. or that's what i interpreted, lol.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Let me just condense this down to the essential crisis.

Scum knows how YJ is flipping.

Which one of these D1 voting histories seems more like a YJ sucmbuddy?

Option A

Okay.

VOTE: Soft-spoken

Okay.

VOTE: Quilford

since nobody is jumping on quill with me atm

VOTE: Rancid Broderick Drake

oh and the person im voting? i was sheeping a slot i townread... they have since unvoted and are less town to me than they were when i sheeped so

UNVOTE:

VOTE: YurikoJasmine now is the time to post anything you possibly can. idc if you arnt caught up.

in either case, I don't really have anything I want to do that can't wait until tomorrow.

bbl for real

good point. selfhammers suk

UNVOTE:

Option B

Actually, Yuriko could be scum. Golden Shower might be town. Gentlemen maybe town.

Vote: Yuriko

-Nati

Yuriko bus grows less surprising the more I look at it.

even i didn't understand what you saw in 478... mind explaining ?

RBD thinks the game will probably start by lynching out-clique. If you think YJ is going to be lynched regardless of how she plays and she's your scumbuddy, you definitely have bussing on the mind. You were trying to guess what happened pregame to make RBD decide right away to lock on the bus, but we have it straight from the horses mouth that the player list itself would make him want to bus, regardless of how Yuriko plays.

[sangres]

Soft-spoken. :/

[sangres]

Rancid. :/

[Gold Saucer]

I was hoping one or both would come in today. I also thought I'd be able to dump some thoughts, but I'm fading fast so probably won't.

Basically both of them are selling me on their cases, though probably Hitonic on rbd more, and then if they're scum I'll feel bad for not believing nacho that he went after pieguyn in a scummy way earlier :/

IDK but with both of them mia life is hard.

[Soft-spoken]

im sorry i cant do it. i have no desire and even less free time... i could give it a week or so to see if things clear up, but i still may not have the motivation to address this game. ill take a poll on if i should replace out. dont expect me to have an active role in the game within the next week if i stay.

[Gyre and Gimble]

I mean, there are two days and some change left until deadline and you're already voting Rancid Brodrick Drake (nice!). Let's just lynch RBD and then probably the game is over and we don't need to worry about it.

And if anyone disagrees, show up right the heck now and let's hash it out. Them's the options. I'm feeling pugilant and happy to throw myself into an argument and vote someone else if I'm convinced. But if people want to play that "wait and see" game all the way to deadline you have to just sheep Metal and me cause we're the ones showing up hard.

Metal did a great job catching up but now I am turning on hito mode and today's lynch is the lynch that we pick. Which is RBD unless someone gives a shit enough to turn us around.

[sangres]

We agree;

VOTE: Rancid

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Rancid

[sangres]

I think that's L-1.

[pieguyn]

ugh.

I really, really, really don't think RBD is flipping scum here. I want to *hopefully* sit down and make a final case on why I think they're town, which would likely be later tonight, but I don't really know how convincing it'd be. I'll also say that I probably have more experience with scum-zmuffin than anyone in this player list except potentially ffery (?).

regardless, if we're lynching RBD, I want to be the hammer.

on a completely unrelated note, I had a dream the other night that this game was plurality, RBD was lynched with only 2 votes, flipped scum and the game ended. maybe this is a sign I'm wrong?!?!

[pieguyn]

Pie: Let's take the time to put your thoughts on RBD together. So you figure that one half of RBD locks on to Yuriko instantly, and that their two sentence thought about why YJ is scum was enough for them to feel totally done with pushing the issue (even though their very next paragrpah implies their read is turing back with "I'm ambivalent, want to see non-setup related thoughts.).

yeah ....

what "pushing" were you expecting them to do? it's as I said before: they didn't push Yuriko bc she was doing fuck all and there was nothing to push her over. you're pushing them over this, when in reality Yuriko was absent for basically the entire game. most of their effort was placed elsewhere bc that's what the gamestate was indicative of - there was, proportionally, a lot of more pressing shit to discuss that _wasn't_ Yuriko.

I still don't see this as being a big deal or indicative of them bussing.

Then, the other hydra head doesn't agree with the evaluation of YJ scum and pushes out elsewhere while continually pointing out "I think YJ's stuff are just newbtells." The hydra head who thinks YJ is scum could still put the vote in play elsewhere to appease their buddy, while seeing how YJ plays without the pressure. Or they could post additional justification for a YJ wagon in thread. Or they could sync up with their buddy until their reads are the same. But they do none of these things. Instead, their vote stays right the heck on YJ - who holds to their page 5 vote the entire day when they post 100 times?
.
.
.
And I mean, shit, look at their fucking walls like 316 and 658. When they wrote those walls, their vote was on YJ because "I kinda didn't like that early post, and they haven't caught up since then." What an absurd disconnect. But it makes a lot of sense if you're trying to lay groundwork for mislynches while making sure that YJ doesn't get lynched without you on her wagon.

I think that this is entirely a playstyle issue, and you're making a much bigger deal over it than it actually is.

it is just as likely, for instance, that Nati just didn't give a shit bc she was letting zmuffin control the vote - that kind of mindset (letting one person have control of the vote) I think is fairly common in hydras. I also think that all of zmuffin's scum reads outside of Yuriko were fairly ambivalent - with me you had "don't like how she played this but there's a few posts I really don't think she's capable of", with sangres I don't think he ever really nailed down that read - so I still don't see why him not moving his vote off Yuriko throughout all this means anything.

Scum knows how YJ is flipping.

Which one of these D1 voting histories seems more like a YJ sucmbuddy?

I still don't think this is a correct assessment of what actually happened, bc as I said before it ignores the fact that Yuriko was absent the entire game. but even then, I disagree the way S-S played it wasn't scummy. he poked at a bunch of alternate Yuriko targets, then gave up and voted her right at the end. I don't see how that's intended to be any better than what RBD did.