Mini Normal 1976 - The Firsts - Night 2[End Jan 8]

[acryon]

Holy crap 10 pages! Sorry guys this holiday weekend things are going to be pretty busy. I'll end up being pretty active during the week but these first few IRL days are going to be tough. I'll end up catching up though.

[acryon]

VOTE: Mulch

Nothing against mulch, everything against monkey.

Still a couple days out from real updates, but I've read through and this is where I'm at.

VOTE: Mulch

[acryon]

I don't buy Mulch's claim. No reason to claim this early in the game and claiming because of an argument with one player is really poor play. Also claiming cop could force a counterclaim and even night means he doesn't have to give results right away. Too convienient of a claim for me so I call BS.

This is the single handedly worst post of the game.

You know why?

He’s SEEN me as town claim early and is trying to push me on it.

2inamilloon is scum

No offense but it's a little odd for the person who, by their own admission, has more than once claimed way too early as town critiquing someone for their post.

I think I'm still happy with my vote on Mulch.

The argument of letting him live in case we have a doc is pretty reasonable, but I don't think it's reasonable enough to overcome Mulch's body of work.

I'll be checked in for real tomorrow but wanted to keep up to date at least.

[acryon]

No offense but it's a little odd for the person who, by their own admission, has more than once claimed way too early as town critiquing someone for their post.

I think I'm still happy with my vote on Mulch.

The argument of letting him live in case we have a doc is pretty reasonable, but I don't think it's reasonable enough to overcome Mulch's body of work.

I'll be checked in for real tomorrow but wanted to keep up to date at least.

Explain why that’s odd?

It is odd because you're criticizing him for his post, when early claiming as town is terrible.

As much as the suspect claim has only gone as far to give me empathy with what DH has been saying, if we are not lynching DH for being a PR I am not going to lynch Mulch today either - I have seen some obscure claims come good so I’ve been here before.

Here's the problem. Although DH's claim was also bad, it A) came when they were closer to a lynch than Mulch and B) was a claim that was much less likely to ward off a wagon.

Mulch's claim was too perfect. Even-night, meaning they get to live another day for free, and even then they can just claim green-checks so they never die and can claim doc was following the cop. Claimed a much more powerful town power role meaning that, unlike in DH's case, losing it is a big deal, and someone CC'ing means we lose a more powerful role.

We are not lynching mulch unless we get a counterclaim. Anynody voting mulch from now on is scum in my book.

This makes zero sense. No reason for someone to counter-claim at this point. If there is an actual cop, then we will find out a few days in when they tell us about their checks or we'll know for sure when they get killed.

@BuJaber - by way of something quantative like a percentage or marks out of 10 (or whatever you choose) how likely do you believe it is that both Mulch and Derpy flip as per their claims

70-80% for each. It varies as they post. I want to believe this is an elaborate ruse by either of them but I can't believe that. It makes a lot less sense than it does that both of them are town.
And if town they wouldn't lie. I mean if they are lying as town then this game is lost and it'd be their fault.

You really think both claims are legit? Fairly low odds that we happen to hit 2 PR's running their heads against each other day 1. Feels a lot more like a legit claim followed by a copy-cat. Also Human/Mulch are playing stupid aggressive if they are really the cop. Please if you are a cop in the future try to play a little more subtly.

[acryon]

B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?

Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.

[acryon]

B) How many times do I have to say there's a difference between me not believing Mulch's claim and me wanting him lynched?

Ok and if you don't believe his claim you should 100% be wanting to lynch him.

If you operate in a world where someone fakeclaiming isn't enough to warrant a lynch, then I am very curious what you think makes someone scum.

Not true, because while I don't believe his claim I entertain the possibility that I am wrong. If you ask if it's scummier to think you are always right or to question yourself, I would say the person that thinks they are always right is scummier.

Everyone plays this game with the possibility that they are wrong. The only people who don't are scum.

Under the assumption that you can always be wrong about anything you suspect (which is true), how are you current suspicions possibly any more indicative of scum than someone fakeclaiming?

[acryon]

The other really weird thing I don’t get is that no one will put their name to a lynch of a potential fake PR claim because they don’t want to lynch a Pr but when DH says that he will kill a PR claim tonight very few people care enough to try and stop him. Again I assume people want their cake and to eat it because they will let DH be brave and take the risk of shooting a PR so they have an easy person to blame in the aftermath.

Just want to echo this. Very good point.

If you believe Mulch is telling the truth, then you should be voting to lynch DH because he is going to kill Mulch if the town doesn't today.

[acryon]

I personally feel like not lynching mulch because I believe DH claim and if we lynch Mulch DH might be shooting a little less blind. I'm more willing to accidentally lose a cop here from a shot then to lynch a cop and get someone else shot along with a mafia nk.

This is a pretty good point, but I still think I would rather us lynch Mulch and then have DH just not use his shot yet (or not at all). Because if we are wrong about Mulch, then we are much better off in the situation where we lynch Mulch and DH holds his shot.

One situation is an educated kill (lynching Mulch), the other is an educated kill (shooting Mulch) plus an uneducated one (lynching someone else).

[acryon]

You may have better odds with lynching Mulch, but the risk of being wrong is considerably higher.

Ok but DH has already stated they will explicitly shoot him tonight, so he's dying either way.

[acryon]

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

If DH kills Mulch (like he said he would), what does that tell us about his alignment? If Mulch turns out to be town or scum, it doesn't mean DH is town or scum; it just means he was wrong or right.

Being wrong is not AI.

[acryon]

I don't believe Mulch's claim. Allowing DH to make up his own mind allows us to try and determine his alignment based on the results of his actions. He could be a SK and not a vig. Telling DH who to shoot removes the accountability element and doesn't help town.

If DH kills Mulch (like he said he would), what does that tell us about his alignment? If Mulch turns out to be town or scum, it doesn't mean DH is town or scum; it just means he was wrong or right.

Being wrong is not AI.

Um...on average scum will be "wrong" at a higher rate than town, because scum want town to die.

Statistically sure, but considering we likely have more people currently wanting Mulch dead than there are scum, it takes quite a bit into the game before that's particularly relevant.

[acryon]

So, taking Mulch out of the equation, if DH is wrong too many times, there comes a point where we need to lynch him because a) he's a sk or b) he's a detriment to the town.

Eh, I don't even think being wrong too much is "detrimental to town" in the sense that someone would be deserving of a lynch for it. Because in every single mis-lynch case, it takes townies being wrong to make it happen. Townies being wrong is more or less a necessary evil of the game, doesn't mean we should go around killing every townie that's wrong because "being wrong is bad for the town." This is how you end up leaving scum alive forever just because they bussed a teammate.

Town/scum is most often identified by their process, not by their voting.

[acryon]

If you believe Mulch is telling the truth

Do you believe him? If yes. Show me what he’s done to play like town

Obviously I don't. I'm voting for him.

Being wrong is not AI.

According to mulch is it...

How the fuck can you say being wrong isn’t alignment indicative

Because every townie is just trying their best, doesn't have perfect information, and thus is "wrong" the vast majority of the time.

[acryon]

Acryon if you had to guess a second scum assuming we leave the claimed PRs alone who would you vote scum then?

At this point I likely wouldn't feel comfortable voting anyone non-Mulch unless it was to avoid a no-lynch. If I had to, I would say 2IAM because of posts like 486 and 488. I don't know that I'd say these posts feel scummy necessarily, but they certainly don't feel like town.

I also feel less confident on town!BuJaber than some people seem to be.

[acryon]

After I flip, lynch

1) 2mil
2) acorn

Both who are encouraging the vigilante to shoot the cop

I'm not encouraging the vig to shoot you. I'm encouraging the town to lynch you.

[acryon]

After I flip, lynch

1) 2mil
2) acorn

Both who are encouraging the vigilante to shoot the cop

I'm not encouraging the vig to shoot you. I'm encouraging the town to lynch you.

Why?

Because I think you're scum. And lynching you is significantly better than shooting you because of this:

One situation is an educated kill (lynching Mulch), the other is an educated kill (shooting Mulch) plus an uneducated one (lynching someone else).

[acryon]

Why do you think I’m scum?

Because monkey's aggressiveness didn't feel town to me, and your claim was really bad.

Your situations assume that DH won't shoot if we lynch Mulch.

I don't think he will.

[acryon]

And even if he does change his mind, then it's not

that

much worse than the situation where we lynch someone else and he shoots Mulch.

[acryon]

Hmmm

So you’ve been pushing on me the entire game because you think my claim is bad? You don’t think my posts are bad but are so confident my claim is bad that your willing to lynch an even night cop, just because you think the claim might be bad? From someone who has in the past rage done stuff like this too? You don’t find my posts scummy but think the claim is SO bad that you won’t even see if I will get nightkillef? You don’t think town might need a lot of power?

I don't care about your meta. I do think the way you and monkey have pushed has been scummy. I think the way you've defended yourself has been scummy. I also don't think you'll be particularly helpful to the town, even if you are town so the risk feels a little lower than it might normally.

You are voting me solely on the claim and are confident to not only vote but push a lynch on it?

There is only a distinction between these two things for me because I don't want a NL.

And your scumrrading Monley on agggrssivenss even fully aware that his aggressiveness is towny for him? You don’t think town can be aggressive?

This isn't what I said. Aggressiveness can certainly be townie. I don't think his was. I also don't care about his meta.

Your push is on AGGRESIVENESS and a claim you dislike, not even content, and that’s enough for you to be SO confident to push a lynch on a cop claim?

Incorrect assumptions beget incorrect conclusions.

[acryon]

So why didn’t you mention you didn’t like our pushed when I originally asked you?

I asked why you scumread me you said monkeys aggressiveness and my claim

Now it’s my pushes too? And monkeys? And you still can’t explain why you thought monkeys aggressiveness was scummy even after asked twice?

And your ignoring meta that thoroughly disproves your entire procsss?

Your full of shit

Meta never proves or disproves anything. Anyone worth a mafia penny can manipulate an argument and find games/posts to support or refute a certain style of play as a certain alignment.

The reason I am voting for you is because I don't believe your claim. The reason I don't believe your claim is because your play hasn't felt like town (read: gut feeling) and the circumstances and nature of your claim make it highly suspect.

[acryon]

You're sidestepping the aggressivness/monkey argument here...

Acryon what made you question monkeys alignment on the read? your first vote was echoing 2iAMs sentiments about Mulch. Which was Nothing against Mulch everything against monkey. Meaning you agreed you didn't like monkey. Let's hear that side.

I came in and voted shortly after Mulch replaced monkey. Up to that point, Mulch's play hadn't been particularly bad (likely due to wanting to avoid coming in hot after a replace-in)

From my read-through (which I did a large chunk at a time since I was V/LA), monkey's aggressiveness felt pretty jarring to me. That seemed like a good place to put my vote to start since I dislike not having a vote out.

After the Mulch claim, my initial vote became a more "real" vote that just so happened to be on the same person. Gut based on my read-through was my reason to "soft-vote" monkey. The claim was my reason to "hard-vote" Mulch.

[acryon]

Acryon - I am sort of on board with your argument that lynching Mulch means we can ‘save’ DHs shot for something else. But given his claim do you think the mafia will kill him tonight which actually just flips your scenario on its head - ie -

Educated lynch on mulch
Uneducated pot shot by DH before he gets scum killed

That probably makes me sound scummy because he is targeting me but if you think there is a scenario where DH sees the night through to gain a bit more knowledge then I’d go with a mulch lynch

I think mafia 100% leaves him alive tonight because his claimed ability wouldn't even do anything anyway. They can safely let him live and kill him tomorrow if need be.

I think that DH sees the night through. He's already said that if we lynch town, smart thing to do is not shoot.

[acryon]

Gut

THIS was your reason to vote monkey? Your pushing me so hard because of gut?

These were my first two posts. Does it really surprise you that my vote in 310 was a gut-read? Can you look at those two posts and read it as anything

other

than a gut-read?

Holy crap 10 pages! Sorry guys this holiday weekend things are going to be pretty busy. I'll end up being pretty active during the week but these first few IRL days are going to be tough. I'll end up catching up though.

VOTE: Mulch

Nothing against mulch, everything against monkey.

Still a couple days out from real updates, but I've read through and this is where I'm at.

VOTE: Mulch

And no, I am not pushing you because of gut. I am pushing you because I don't believe your claim. The overarching theme of your play and my gut are

part of the reason

I don't believe your claim, but the crux of my push on you is the claim.

[acryon]

So

Why don’t you believe my claim

Baby fucking steps

Baby steps, although you could've done this yourself if you cared to.

The argument of letting him live in case we have a doc is pretty reasonable, but I don't think it's reasonable enough to overcome Mulch's body of work.

Mulch's claim was too perfect. Even-night, meaning they get to live another day for free, and even then they can just claim green-checks so they never die and can claim doc was following the cop. Claimed a much more powerful town power role meaning that, unlike in DH's case, losing it is a big deal, and someone CC'ing means we lose a more powerful role.

I don't care about your meta. I do think the way you and monkey have pushed has been scummy. I think the way you've defended yourself has been scummy.

The reason I don't believe your claim is because your play hasn't felt like town (read: gut feeling) and the circumstances and nature of your claim make it highly suspect.

From my read-through (which I did a large chunk at a time since I was V/LA), monkey's aggressiveness felt pretty jarring to me. That seemed like a good place to put my vote to start since I dislike not having a vote out.

After the Mulch claim, my initial vote became a more "real" vote that just so happened to be on the same person. Gut based on my read-through was my reason to "soft-vote" monkey. The claim was my reason to "hard-vote" Mulch.

[acryon]

Ok, my claim is a good claim to make as scum.

But I’m not scum.

So why couldn’t I be town whose making the claim?

You keep making aeguements that my claim is perfect IF I’m scum

But that has the premise that I’m scum

So if you don’t assume I’m scum, why is my claim bad

I mean your claim is fundamentally bad because of what you're seeing play out right now. That was anti-town action, irregardless of your real faction.

Why does your claim look scum to me and not town to me? Because your body of work doesn't feel like town play. Monkey turned on Derpy and got aggressive once Derpy voted for him. You have played in a similar way for much of your time that felt defensive to me (in a way that's not town).

The difference between a scum play and a town play is generally the perceived intent behind it. I believe, based on your body of work and the circumstances of your claim, that the intent was a scummy one.

[acryon]

Also the other things Hawk said that I didn't.

[acryon]

Acryon who are you voting again? What's your thoughts on profil?

I am voting Mulch.

I like profil. I found myself very much understanding their thought process as I read through the game. Not a lot I majorly disagreed with from them, and nothing in my gut particularly pinged when reading.

[acryon]

I’ve had an idea. If we are going to lose a PR when DH kills Mulch, I’ll make a different policy vote

VOTE: no lynch

Ner!

Actually I realized I was confused for a second I misread a previous Profil post but I do want to call back to this a bit. Between this and Profils constant what if scenarios always ending with town losing multiple members do you think that's town indicative?

Anyone can answer but I suppose this is more directed at Acryon right now.

Derpy do you think Profil hasn't been trying to dig up scum? What are your thoughts on Bujaber, and RB? You said you could do Psycho are you still feeling 2IAM is town?

Yeah I didn't like that post at all. NL is pretty terrible, and to be honest that was one of a few weird posts by profil, but then seemed to get back on track with posts after. Also, first game for them on this site so I'm willing to give them a bit of a pass on the NL suggestion since the overall body of work is something resembling a townie.

[acryon]

Look at all my scum games.

I’m townread.

I don’t get scumread as scum

It’s very simple logic

"Hey guys! No one ever scumreads me as scum, so because you're scumreading me that means I can't be scum!"

You don't see a problem with this kind of statement?

Do I really need to read the last 5 pages of arguments?

You should read Sky's most recent posts. They are actually very very good.

So in response to Mulch; the reason nobody is championing a lynch is because we're anticipating that either scum or Derpy will kill you tonight and so there's no point lynching you. Your actual content is difficult to interact with because it's mainly flailing and blaming others for Derpy; but we can't control Derpy because Derpy is their own person. Nobody is going to step in and save you (unless you have a scumbuddy!) so if you want to get out of the hole you're in, start digging upwards. Otherwise, you have a role we likely can't make use of, and a slot that's currently good for nothing.

I am championing a lynch for exactly the reasons you mentioned. If Mulch is town, we are

way

worse off with him being shot tonight than we are lynching him. That's the problem.

Anyone who is not voting Mulch but expects him to be shot tonight needs to consider this:
1) We lynch Mulch. Vig doesn't shoot. In this scenario, if Mulch is scum we are in amazing shape. If Mulch is town we aren't in that bad of shape since he was going to eat a NK at some point before he could do anything anyway.

2) We lynch someone else. Vig shoots. In this scenario, if Mulch is scum we are in great shape, but are also down (likely) another townie. If mulch is town, we are in horrific shape, since we are most likely down 2 townies.

Bottom line: There is

very

little risk to lynching Mulch, and lynching him and having no Vig shot tonight is superior in almost every scenario to letting him get Vig shot tonight.

[acryon]

UNVOTE:

Jodax still hasn't contributed meaningfully as even his most recent posts are mostly piggybacking Sky. But that's okay. Sky is towny as fuck. For now I think we can switch gears.

Going off what Sky said I'm okay with Psycho, 2iAM, Bujaber lynches.

I'm okay with Townblock, Me, Sky, DH(mostly from the claim), Mulch(from the claim), RB and one other.

RB I really would like you to read some of what was said. Most of the pages with me going back and forth with Mulch amounted to not a lot besides I think getting some other people (acryon, 2iam, and profil) to chime in which might be worth looking at. Most of me and Mulch is me trying to get mulch to make an actual argument not based on logical fallacies. But none of what he said was very AI as you can't really say for certain it's bad town play or bad scum play based off what information we have.

Jodax why are you leaning Psycho more than Bujaber??

Here's the thing about Mulch though. Lynching him is such a low-risk/high-reward play. If we lynch him and he's town, it's not a big deal since he was going to be killed by mafia anyways so we don't really lose the PR by lynching him. The fact that he claimed means there is (I would say) a higher-than-average chance of hitting scum. We will feel very bad as town if we allow scum to fakeclaim and live on for days for no reason. Not to mention if we don't lynch him, he will continue to be a point of contention if he lives on. Do you want to be stuck in a LyLo with Mulch?

[acryon]

How is it high-reward? It's actually the average reward since if we lynch him and he's scum DH is probably dying tonight without protection...

If he's scum and DH shoots him that's actually higher reward as we might actually get 2 scum tonight.

How is it ever average reward if we get scum? Especially when DH has such a weak PR for town since the vig is more often than not shooting a townie. And the chances of us getting 2 scum is just so so low.

Also no matter what the days play out almost the same.

Assuming the setup is simple and is 9 town 2 scum or something like that we go either
7-2/5-2/3-2 or 6-2/4-2/3-2.

I can see an argument that a blind shot n1 is worse than not having to no lynch on d3 but like you said.

Yes, but that's the point. Giving town the option to NL later on, or get a more educated vig shot, is actually quite powerful.

You would think Mulch is going to die no matter what.... unless you honestly think scum will keep him around because of how scrutinized his claim has been.

Town!Mulch getting shot by Vig is much much worse than him getting NK by scum, which is the likely scenario if we don't lynch him.

[acryon]

Do you guys usually play with roles that have even night caveats - I’m wondering if this game is going to be weird and wonderful as we go which is my thought process on Derpy. I don’t know if he is a SK but I don’t think he is a normal vig either, although I assume he has a NK facility

Let's not speculate further on his town PR unless there is a clear benefit to do so, which there isn't in this case. Aside from that I'll say he's almost definitely not the SK, because the SK would never come out and say they are the Vig because then they just get NK'd by scum.

BuJubar seems very very concerned about him looking town and about people linking him to Pysko. Doesn't feel very town.

[acryon]

I will literally never lynch Sky this game

I think that's probably a good idea.

[acryon]

Going to be going on V/LA here later today for most of the rest of the game day, so wanted to make my final case for Mulch.

(First, I 100% believe the claim of DH. He claimed Vig and has consistently said he would shoot Mulch tonight. It would be very very hard for him to avoid major suspicion if there weren’t 2 kills tonight, so I’m very much inclined to believe the claim is legit.)

That being said, these are the scenarios with Mulch:

Mulch is Town

A. We lynch town!Mulch. Not the end of the world since he was never going to live long enough to provide town value anyway.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot town!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Mulch is Scum

A. We lynch scum!Mulch. Obviously a great scenario, not much else to say here.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot scum!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Unless you think we have a very good chance of lynching scum today outside of Mulch (statistically we don't), whether Mulch is town or scum,

our best scenario involves lynching him over the alternative

.

[acryon]

I already explained my vote. I see Mulch and prolif as a scumteam.

I’ve said a couple of times I am none the wiser as to why you’ve linked us. Would you mind elaborating a bit on that please

What is your response to the post I just made on Mulch?

[acryon]

Going to be going on V/LA here later today for most of the rest of the game day, so wanted to make my final case for Mulch.

(First, I 100% believe the claim of DH. He claimed Vig and has consistently said he would shoot Mulch tonight. It would be very very hard for him to avoid major suspicion if there weren’t 2 kills tonight, so I’m very much inclined to believe the claim is legit.)

That being said, these are the scenarios with Mulch:

Mulch is Town

A. We lynch town!Mulch. Not the end of the world since he was never going to live long enough to provide town value anyway.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot town!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Mulch is Scum

A. We lynch scum!Mulch. Obviously a great scenario, not much else to say here.
B. We lynch someone else and let DH vig-shoot scum!Mulch. Chances are we lose an extra townie here.

Unless you think we have a very good chance of lynching scum today outside of Mulch (statistically we don't), whether Mulch is town or scum,

our best scenario involves lynching him over the alternative

.

This is incorrect mathematically. If I were to be killed by scum, we save a towny player, and make it so we can actually lynch a scummy player instead of mislynching me

You will not be killed by scum unless we think Derpy is A) lying about his PR or B) lying about shooting you, neither of which make any sense for him to do as either alignment.

[acryon]

And scum would never kill town!you tonight anyways. No reason to when they could leave you another day to cause more confusion.

[acryon]

Fairly certain DH said he wouldn't shoot mulch if we lynch town today cause that would be bad...

Was this really your stance Derpy? How does it make sense to not shoot just because we got a townie? How does us lynching a townie make Mulch any more or less scum in your eyes?

The thing is, leaving Mulch alive literally never does anything to help us. If he is town, he just eats a NK anyway before he can do anything useful, and if he's scum, he creates a nightmare for town for the rest of the game.

[acryon]

Acryon is making a lot of sense on Mulch's lynch. Similar to BuJaber I wouldn't be opposed to a Mulch lynch, but I still prefer Psyko until he gives me a strong reason to think otherwise.

In what ways it it making sense, it's mathmatically incorrect so this smells like bullshit to me

There isn't math in those scenarios, so they cannot be "mathematically" correct or incorrect. They are potentially fundamentally flawed if DH indeed isn't promising to shoot you.

But even if that's the case, this is still true:
"Leaving Mulch alive literally never does anything to help us. If he is town, he just eats a NK anyway before he can do anything useful, and if he's scum, he creates a nightmare for town for the rest of the game."

Lynching you is

so

low-risk for the chance at scum and/or eliminating future nightmare scenario for town.

[acryon]

Was this really your stance Derpy? How does it make sense to not shoot just because we got a townie? How does us lynching a townie make Mulch any more or less scum in your eyes?

I mean if we are talking about smart play.

1. Vig should not ever shoot n1.
2. If we mislynch vig should holster
3. The exception is if the consensus agrees to shoot and that target is decided.

Now some say I don’t play smart which I guess I can see why people think that because I always shoot n1.

If people don’t want me to shoot, I won’t shoot. If they do, I will.

I’m fairly certain mulch is scum and want him gone. If he is town he’s not helping town. He’s and his predecessor have also pissed me off but I don’t want rage to fuck up the game anymore than it already has.

This feels like an odd about-face from you.

Separately, can someone explain to me how town wins this game if we get into a LyLo situation including Mulch?

If the determination is "if he's town, scum will kill him", at what point is the town no longer comfortable with him as truly town?

This feels like a disaster waiting to happen.

[acryon]

If we don’t lynch Derpy or Mulch, mafia have to make a choice. If we have some kind of protection role, they have to decide if which PR is telling the truth and if they think both which is most at risk/most useful.

Although this is only true if they are both telling the truth. If either is lying, there is no choice to make, and if we have a protection role, they are forced to guess which one is telling the truth and hope they protect the right one.

If Mulch is telling the truth and has some reads by the time we get to LyLo, then town will probably have trouble trusting said reads.

Exactly. If we have a PR that we can't trust anyway, then what's the point of them for the future of the town?

[acryon]

@Mulch: If you were a different player that was town in this game, would you assume you are town and why? From an objective standpoint, do you think your play so far has helped town?

Intresting question.

1) Would I assume I was town? no. Would I lynch or shoot a cop claim? no

So a claimed cop is essentially an innocent child to you? You can keep living as scum and pretending to do checks on people that are dying for the rest of the game.

[acryon]

@Mulch: If you were a different player that was town in this game, would you assume you are town and why? From an objective standpoint, do you think your play so far has helped town?

Intresting question.

1) Would I assume I was town? no. Would I lynch or shoot a cop claim? no

So a claimed cop is essentially an innocent child to you? You can keep living as scum and pretending to do checks on people that are dying for the rest of the game.

Wolfy manipulation. I never said I would say I am scum, I said I woulden't ASSUME I am town

I never said I would be an innocent child to me

You said "Would I lynch or shoot a cop claim? no"

Were there other qualifiers to this that you left out? Because otherwise that does essentially translate to "a claimed cop is an innocent child."

[acryon]

How the fuck is “I wouldn’t kill a cop claim

day 1 or night 1

” mean

This is what we would refer to as a "qualifier". That's fine if that's your actual stance, but it's much different than your statement without it.

[acryon]

Also your vote isn't on me right now Mulch, so this is your reminder.

[acryon]

My goal here is not to "gotcha" you Mulch. My point in this dialogue was to point out the issue in giving you a free pass because you claimed cop. If someone gives you a free pass today for your claim, at what point does it end?

[acryon]

@Mod: V/LA Until Tuesday morning CST.

@Town: Do the smart thing here. Look at my argument re: Mulch and determine if your current trajectory is better (hint: it's likely not). Then vote Mulch.

[acryon]

I'll be around tomorrow with plenty of time prior to deadline. Will change my vote to avoid a NL if necessary.

[acryon]

This feels like an odd about-face from you.

Stepping away from the game to let your anger settle down does that to people. I’ll continue ignoring him and do what I feel is right to win.

Fair.

Acryon - correct me if I'm wrong but if I understood you correctly is that since we can't trust his reads he is useless to town. Well that is not true because if we all townlean on him then he becomes a sort of innocent child which is a good thing as it reduces the pool of suspects. Like I said above it's day 1, there are a lot of unknowns, there is no need for a defensive approach.

This is even worse, because if we all start to townlean on him, it's likely more due to the town more or less accepting his claim and not because his play shows town.

Our lynch should be based on whether we think someone is scum or not. Not whether keeping them alive is good for us or not. That is my opinion.

Agreed, and I do think he is scum. My only points regarding his usefulness is to fight the idea that it would be disastrous for town if we killed PR!Mulch.

- People who say that people who vote scum are no more likely to be town
- People who say that people who vote town are no more likely to be wolfs
- People who say that a mislynch bait being nightkilled is disadvatnaageous to scum
- People who say that saying lynching a cop claim day 1 means that I think they are "an inno child"
- People who say meta is uesless

All of these are twisted, hyperbolized versions of things I said. The only one that's genuine is the last point, and I mostly stand by that because meta arguments produce negative results more often than not. I would go through and explain how what you've quoted is different than the things I've said, but it's clear you're willfully struggling with understanding the difference already.

Acryon, Bujaber, and Psycho have kinda danced around the idea of lynches most of the day not taking any firm stances. If we're lynching outside of Mulch I'm fine with any of these.

Did I do this? I thought I've pushed pretty hard on the one person I'm confident on, and then mentioned a couple others when asked.

And since it's L-1 I'm used to that being claim time.. so I'm an odd night commuter.

No idea what to think about this claim.

VOTE: jodax

This is

such

a bizarre vote. No chance of completing a lynch by days end (and he knows it).

So we have Psyko at L-3, BuJuber at L-2, and Mulch at L-4.

Need my vote to be useful and we need to avoid a NL.

VOTE: BuJaber

This is L-1.

[acryon]

Derpy please shoot Mulch tonight. Otherwise tomorrow is a similar mess.

[acryon]

My first priority is to lynch who I think is scummiest, but that's not going to happen today. So instead I'll ensure we avoid a NL, and at least it's someone I had some suspicions on that also isn't claiming a powerful role.

[acryon]

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

[acryon]

unkillable at night

most active player in the game so far

if we have any protection, they don't even have to protect bujaber on odd nights, so whoever they protect means we have 2 unkillable town members every odd night

holyfuckingshit

like the only reason to do this is because you explicitly think Bujaber is scum and his claim is false. there is absolutely no reason, if you think Bujaber might be town, that this is preferable to another lynch

Being partially unkillable is only really a benefit to town if we can confirm the person as town. Every scum is unkillable at night too.

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

relevant only if you actually scumread Buj

Relevant for everyone, because no one should be treating Buj as confirmed. And in this case (like Mulch's), we end up giving someone more of a free pass than normal because of their claim, even though their claim is more or less not provable.

Also keep in mind commuter is yet

another

PR that could theoretically live forever without being proven real or fake.

If mulch and bu are both town that’s not actually true.

Yes, but the odds of either of them living forever as town is very unlikely.

ebwop - @ Acryon - I'm interested in your response to my analysis, mainly the bits that relate to you, but if you want to go through the lot feel free

this post

There isn't actually much analysis to respond to honestly. Mostly conjecture.

Spoiler:

Acryon is really confusing me, everything he says is logically sound... but! Thus far, he has only really directed us towards Mulch. If you read his ISO, you could suggest he has come into the game a bit later on (and I know it's xmas etc) which has given him a position to look at the game and see which direction it has already taken.

I was off of work, which is the only place I can reliably play. You can believe this or not, but nothing to argue with here.

He has taken some steps to appeal to those who think policy lynching Mulch is a positive move and he has also taken steps to appeal to those who just think Mulch is scum. He also softly suggested TIAM and BuJaber are perhaps other lynch targets but his reasoning for TIAM was pants (see above - TIAM is right in saying Scum will statistically mislynch, that's their job! Also, if Derpy kept shooting 'wrong' players, we probably should lynch him. Although that would be subject to his justification and how the game panned out.

Sure scum will statistically mislynch more than town, but actually not that much more, so lynching someone based on who they voted for is just one very small piece of the puzzle. And Derpy told us he is one-shot, so I don't think he will "keep shooting" anyone.

Posts #536 and #537 also rang alarm bells with me, #536 is a Hawk quote saying Acryon has assumed DH wont shoot and he just says "I don't think he will." then #537 is a follow up justifying the scenario where it's basically the same as if we lynch someone else who flips town, the Derpy shoots anyway. Whilst that is true, I was reading with a biased narrative where there is a DH/Acryon link and Acryon knew DH wouldnt shoot, but then found a logical reason to justify it after stating it. Perhaps a scumslip.

You acknowledge you read this as biased. As someone who is also biased since I know I'm town, I obviously disagree with your analysis.

[acryon]

The first point is fine
The middle point I don't actually know the stats, but I think the logic that scum will aim for town is a reasonable principle. I went back and spotted the 1 shot bit, I didn't realise that until now. The bit that is most interesting here is no one seemed to correct TIAM & TIAM just assumed Derpy had the potential to be a SK despite saying one shot vig. I missed it so I can't argue he is ignoring the facts but it's an option
The last point - yeah I was just trying to look at the angle where you are scum to see if it made sense. Your logical analysis I like, but I just thought it became too conveniently appealing to everyone, a bit like a horoscope

Oh yeah for sure scum will aim for town. But my point is that town can go an entire game voting only for other town, and this happens every game. It's definitely happened for me as town, which is why my point was that reasoning is so much more important than what alignment people actually vote for.

[acryon]

Lynching me may be low risk since I am vanilla nut if you are going to do that it would be better to no lynch.

I still don't think you're the right lynch, but actually lynching a random person who is claiming to be VT is definitely better than a NL.

Every lynch gives info, which is very important for future days, which is why NL are so bad.

[acryon]

So he only shoots once. Thaats not hard.

Except that if he's not scum he likely dies quickly. If he shoots, he is semi-confirmed town or SK. Either of those are very bad for scum to keep alive. But I think there is very close to 0% chance he is SK. No reason to out yourself like that to scum.

[acryon]

It is not impossible for scum to have a one-shot vig. Derpy is not confirmed town unless we see a scum flip overnight.

Actually according to the wiki, Vig's must be town-aligned.
"Vigilantes are considered Normal on mafiascum.net if their kill flavour is indistinguishable from other factions'. As of 9 November 2015,

they must also be town aligned.

"
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Vigilante

[acryon]

Is there really a reason to do it as Vig. "he called me a liar" is total BS.

I pride myself in not lying unless I absolutely have to. For somebody to question my integrity like that when there wa absolutely no reason for me to lie is what is BS. He was given the opportunity to retract and apologize and refused.

Come on DH. This is mafia. There is no such thing as integrity when anyone can be made a liar by design whether they like it or not.

Unofficial vote tally:

BuJaber(5) ~ PsykoSavant, TwoInAMillion, Hawk, profii, Acryon
PsykoSavant(3) ~ Jodaxq, Sky_Paladin, Mulch
Mulch(2) ~ acryon, Derpy Hooves
TwoInAMillion(1) ~ rb
Jodaxq(1) ~ BuJaber

I think I probably want to see rb on Pskyo since that is his preferred stated lynch.

Profii/Acryon you are around, what say you about Pskyo wagon? Do we even have enough around to push the Pskyo lynch at the moment, since he won't claim?

Psyko never pinged me much, but I would vote there to avoid a NL.

[acryon]

Derpy or Sky. Just need one of you to vote BuJaber and we avoid the NL.

[acryon]

Derpy, please consider alignment of BuJaber and interactions with players when taking your shot.

Echoing this, although personally I like a Mulch shot either way.

[acryon]

Fos still on Acryon for me. Came into game after Mulch had resigned to death so fairly focussed on his for town points, Mulch also voted his way a lot. Distance created before inevitable scum flip

This is an...interesting interpretation of my actions yesterday. Anyone FOSing me at the moment is out of their minds.

Real post on stuff tomorrow.

[acryon]

Okay it's tinfoil hat time - I'm thinking derpy might be SK.

3 scum with a vig would make it possible to go to a day2 MyLo. 3v8, lynch town, vig town, NK town = 3v5 on Day2.

More likely a 2/1/8? SK first priority is to scumhunt anyway and be seen as town, get scumteam gone and then win off towncred while 'looking for the last scum'.

/tinfoil

Derpy is not SK. SK NEVER outs themselves as Vig, because then they're just a target for Scum. Derpy is essentially conftown right now, so he is easily the best NK tonight.

Back to my point to anyone who thinks I am scum: not only did I push Mulch, but I

continued to say that he should be vig-shot

. There is literally no reason to do that. It was clear Derpy could've been pushed off of a shot on Mulch last night. So either you're ready to accept I am both very stupid and needlessly ballsy, or that I am town. I generally don't care if people think I am scum and this is likely the last time I'll mention it, but it is going to screw this day up if a bunch of people have me in their scum pool.

Namely whether or not Mulch was being bussed, which I think is really likely because of how willing so many people were to switch onto Bujaber from Mulch. Not in the 'im over this game' kinda way but 'woo let's lynch Bujaber instead'

What game are you watching? I am literally the only one that switched from Mulch to Bu and that was with like 4 hours until DL and nearing a NL.

Profii and Sky were on BuJubar forever.
Hawk switched from jodax to no vote to Bu.
Psyko switched from 2iaM to Bu.
Jodax switched from Psyko to Bu.

[acryon]

Wow I leave for an hour meeting and we have a hammer? Looks right anyway though. Never seen someone get themselves killed this quickly.

[acryon]

Chances of Vig and 3rd party seems super low. Game would go by too quickly I think with possible 3 kills in a night.

Chances of Derpy being that 3P seems close to zero. I just can't imagine SK outing themselves to scum like that.

[acryon]

Idk actually. Masons, Commuter, Vig, + Tracker of some kind does seem like too much power for 2 scum.

[acryon]

Masons/Commuter isn't really that helpful. Vig only helpful if they shoot scum, tracker not confirmed yet.

Masons can be very helpful. Tracker basically confirmed because Ninja means nothing without it or some similar variant.

[acryon]

I think 3v8 is possible.

Town power in this game seems somewhat comparable to ours: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ..._or_Not

[acryon]

So Vig, Masons, Commuter, Tracker that's 5 town PR against 3 scum? Reasonable... but isnt it kind dangerous with the big.

We could drop to 5v3 d2 into a mylo situation and have no idea. we are in Mylo.

Yeah that's true. Idk I guess we'll find out if there's a tomorrow.

[acryon]

I think there will be a day 3

Do you think we were wrong about Psycho or do you think there's a 3rd party??

I’ll tell you what I know tomorrow

Why don't you tell us now?

[acryon]

Derpy! You had to know you sealed yourself the moment you claimed Vig. Were you hoping there was a doc that would protect you?

Honestly - wp to Hawk, Sky and Bujaber. That Bujaber lynch was utter bullshit lmao.

I agree, but we were like 4 hours from deadline. Doubt we're ever gonna have a good lynch without a decent consensus that late in the day.

No I killed you cause I thought you were scum and I killed rb because I didn’t buy the buddying act. Nice try though.

You are suppose to kill town and lynch scum as a serial killer

Well considering he almost won shooting scum, I wouldn't say he did that bad. The problem was the claim though, which assured scum would kill him.

[acryon]

tbh I wasn't even thinking. I let my rage mess with my mind.

My plan was to just shoot once and not shoot anymore, hopefully scum would leave me alive because most people think I am a liability to town and given rb was the other scum, nobody would have ever suspected him.

once the doctor died, I knew I was dead so I figure I would shoot who I thought was most likely scum and if I was wrong i'd at least get some pleasure out of it.

It's hard for me to play as scum, because I am always scum hunting. Even when I am scum I am still "scum hunting" aka pushing the things I personally find scummy. It's easier to do obviously as scum though but I am afraid the entire time. That is really the only difference between my town and scum games. my own fear lol

Yeah even though the claim more or less sealed your fate, I think you played it about as well as you could've after. Almost won anyway.

[acryon]

interestingly, if the dr was alive and saved derpy, the scum would have died and derpy could have maintained his 1 shot vig claim to the end, so psyko was the perfect lynch in a way

Town with the next-level play.

[acryon]

That does seem bizarre. Doesn't the possibility of "grey" roles more or less functionally invalidate most rules on what is considered "normal"?