Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[sangres]

hi guys!

/confirm

[sangres]

It's starting. I can feel it. my heart is going to break.

About damn time.

/confirm

who made this post?

[sangres]

did you order meta for the appetizer?

[sangres]

I imagine we meta'd the same player.

[sangres]

though maybe not.

[sangres]

I wondered why there was an exclamation point at the end of hi guys.

[sangres]

heh

[sangres]

That was me (Empire).

I'm itching to get to the main course already, this is a very long appetizer.

It wasn't a very long appetizer when you made your first post.

[sangres]

bork!!!

[sangres]

Hey hey.

Any thoughts on anything alignment indicative happening yet?
I am monitoring a few things but I don't feel particularly inclined to budge in on any of them yet.

-b

I was jumping at every little thing last night, so I'm kinda glad it was still pregame. I'm in observe-and-poke mode for now.

I love this player list so much.

[sangres]

Soft-Spoken.

[sangres]

(I've been drinking a bit so prepare for increasingly incoherent posts.)

I strongly suspect I've caught up with you.

Where is everybody?

[sangres]

(I've been drinking a bit so prepare for increasingly incoherent posts.)

I strongly suspect I've caught up with you.

Where is everybody?

I'm here. Few drinks behind you though

-b

Slow start to this game.

[sangres]

This is a new open set up, but treestumps aren't all that unusual. You're not dead, but you don't have a vote. You do still have a voice, though. A confirmed town voice.

[sangres]

how does this setup change scumhunting in your opinion?

[sangres]

you're betting they're scum but you think they're probably town?

[sangres]

Sangres other than wanting to speak with Empire was there a particular reason you wanted to know who made Post 4 of ours?

My question about who made the post had nothing at all to do with wanting to speak with Empire.

[sangres]

bork if you're scum this time I'm going to be officially terrified of playing with you for a while.

[sangres]

meds are kicking in when the game finally starts to take off :/

I want to compare notes with you about stuff that snagged so far, but it's probably going to have to wait until tomorrow.

[sangres]

What did the fact that Empire made that post tell you and how would it have changed if I were the one that made the post?

I thought the sentiment sounded a little forced coming from Empire, but could be that he was just that keyed up about the game. Which was *sort of* confirmed by his answer to my questions. It didn't have some of the tone I remember from his rvs play in the space game, though.

I don't know you well enough to make that kind of judgement.

[sangres]

What do you think about the Yuriko thing in general re: 46/55 and reactions surrounding?

p-edit: Well, start with that question. I'll be around sporadically tomm.

-b

I started meta-ing her yesterday. I'm not done with that yet, but so far my impression is that she's a fairly assertive and thoughtful player as either alignment, once I got past her most recent completed games (which happened last year during the timeframe when the site went down and data was lost. It looked like the timing of that knocked her for a loop and she wound up being replaced in her games).

Anyway, her start here looked way more hesitant than the games from last year that I've looked at so far. Unlike Empire, I thought her early posts about players being weird looked a little scummy. Being confused about the setup, given she's mostly played newbie games so far, is a little less concerning to me. I don't have a warm fuzzy, though.

[sangres]

I thought the sentiment sounded a little forced coming from Empire, but could be that he was just that keyed up about the game. Which was *sort of* confirmed by his answer to my questions. It didn't have some of the tone I remember from his rvs play in the space game, though.

FWIW, I think that my play once Day 1 actually started is a lot closer to Mafia in Space than you're thinking (minus the lighthearted banter, probably due to the side effects of drawing a town PM in this particular game vs. that one). Also, Regfan thinks that we're obvtown already so you should just sheep him, he's good at mafia you know?

why are the side effects different?

[sangres]

Well, ffery, for one thing the quality of this roster is way higher. Also, you (part of the Trinity of Empire readers) and Tammy (pretty accurate at reading me) are here and I don't expect you two to have any problems reading me as town if you're both town like I think you are so that gives me the license to roam free and uninhibited.

Quilford, any thoughts on non-my slot players?

I said something earlier about jumping at every little thing during the pregame phase, so there's that. You seem to be roaming more freely now, but I had the opposite impression from your first 2-3 posts.

I'm putting a lot of pressure on myself to get this read right and not dally about it.

p-edit, I kinda agree about pieguy.

[sangres]

what does that mean?

[sangres]

pie why did you feel like you needed to reenter the game - on page 5 - with well formed reads?

[sangres]

the second point is a little more meaningful to me, though the only way anyone gets data for forming reads is from the content provided (or not provided) by other players.

I would have liked to see signs of life from you in the game thread.

speaking of signs of life it would be nice for Soft-spoken to make an appearance.

I won't be around much for the next 5-6 hours so I'm not going to try to really dig into these walls until then.

[sangres]

the differences of opinion about me are interesting. I am in the "ffery hasn't obvtowned" camp. I think the only way that me-townreads form -- that I can comprehend and don't look to me like elder gods were called upon -- do so organically as I react to events and form reads. Yesterday I sat in the game thread and poked at stuff, but the amount of activity was pretty woeful.

My reaction to the overnight walls are colored by a slight townfeel from my interactions with empire. I'm not sure what I think about pieguyn yet.

[sangres]

bork, have you and pieguy played any games together since tales of you?

[sangres]

bork, have you and pieguy played any games together since tales of you?

Not that i can recall, and none that we interacted in any profound way. I think she was in fakegod's touhou upick 2 that i was in concurrently but died early.

Viscon xroads was a little earlier but she was scum

-b

I have some thoughts about my post tales of you confidence in reading you vs a game or two later, but it wasn't as long a gap between games.

I replaced into touhou 2 after you had replaced out and nacho replaced in. nacho tried to school me on the reasons why you had been obvtown in that game in ways you never were in tales of you.

In mafia on the air I was very confident you were town, but I replaced in with almost a full game day's worth of interaction between you and tammy to judge by.

[sangres]

I have some thoughts about my post tales of you confidence in reading you vs a game or two later, but it wasn't as long a gap between games.

Frankly, I'm sure I'm not

that

hard to read, even after that game, for you.

Dunno if that applies to pie.

-b

It was mostly a paranoia thing.

I got over it.


Mostly!

[sangres]

Also, I feel at ease with you this game in a way I never did in Nati's game up until when you claimed mason

-b

I remember! I was going through a tough time irl during that game, and also having all sorts of laptop probs that made it hard to stay in-the-moment. And I had a super-solid townread on my mason buddy that I couldn't explain and probably would have been a less-strong read if I didn't have mod confirmation, especially given the night-shenanigans.

Anyway.

I had a bunch of niggles from confirmation stage and early real-day and I need to go back and figure out if they've all been exercised. And I want to get nacho in here to look at some stuff.

also those gawdawful walls. I need to reread them.

[sangres]

Stuff during pregame that caught my eye.

- Empire's first post, which has been clarified enough that I'm not feeling squinty eyed about it atm.

- the y'all are weirds. Yuriko in 46 kind of echoed Soft-spoken's first (and only) post. The trailing-off elipses in her first sentence do indicate that her reaction to the start of RVS is a separate thing from her concerns/confusion about the setup. But, the elipses themselves bother me, maybe because Cabd mentioned it was a player's scum-habit to say something ambivalent and a bit FoSy using elipses but not actually spell it out. I haven't gotten back to my meta dive yet but that's something I want to check for in her other games.

- Soft-spoken's entrance and so far lack of return. I have a little bit of semi-experiential meta I'm watching for. I followed his first ms game and noticed something that could be an alignment cue. More later if it turns out to be relevant.

- bork's pregame interactions with Yuriko and Quillford - What I liked here was that he was reacting to stuff that caught my eye, but there was a different spin on it. Invariably when he's been town, I've seen that his approach to the game differs from mine in some very specific and repeated ways. It's easy for me to spot because we do react to the same stuff and my reaction, whether I express it in-thread or not, is there as a yardstick for comparison. I used to also focus on his reactions to being scumread/townread, and how he expressed paranoia if he did. But, I think those are behaviors he was able to transplant into his scumgame in tales of you, so I don't weigh them much now.

- bbmolla's one post. he usually reaches out to Tammy if she's in the game. Didn't happen.

- pieguy's reaction to RBD. It felt awkward.

- Quil felt very flippant, like maybe too flippant, but I have very little experience playing with him and previous experience was with a hydra. I'm going to throw my hands up and let nacho decide. I'm leaning town based on his posts after day 1 officially started but it's not a strong read.

I'm going to do a separate post for stuff I'm curious about since the game day officially started.

[sangres]

if you think yuriko might be the firefighter why would you want to point that out?

[sangres]

also, I pointed up your lack of reach-out to tammy, but a quick iso/ctl-f indicates she and bork haven't had anything to say about you so far. Do you feel like that's typical of town-tammy?

[sangres]

bucket?

[sangres]

Pie is this argument about what Nacho and I would do purely hypothetical?

Nacho, as far as I know, hasn't read anything in this game since his post on page 1.

The argument between you and GB has reminded me somewhat of your reaction to zmuffin in the Xenosaga game. I didn't scumread you entirely because of your interactions with zmuffin, but it was a factor. This feels similar to me because i feel like you're overreacting to them and that's become a reinforcing spiral of action/reaction.

this is pushing my read of you in the town direction, mostly because I think if you were scum/he town you might make more of an effort to get him to change his mind about you, or give him opportunity/reason to soften his stance if you were scum together.

[sangres]

I was too wrapped up in signs and void to even look at Thor's game until day 1 was almost over. I felt terrible about that.

Nacho and I don't usually talk about player lists at all before our hydra games start. if that sort of discussion happens, it's usually after day 1 is underway.

[sangres]

I think your 2nd paragraph of #230 basically applies to all the players you're calling a meta-circle, if any of them are scum. I think that's part of the reason why it feels dicey just accepting the townreads are all correct.

also, imo you're also in the meta circle. If you're town, once you and GB sort each other out, where would you look next?

[sangres]

Pie, also, I've pretty much said all I feel like saying about my bork read in that earlier posts. For now, anyway. Does it answer your earlier question?

[sangres]

^ post 198

[sangres]

as in, most would be excited if they thought they had spotted the other as scum?

I was looking at the wrong post - 231 - and responding to your comments about scum-GB feeling like you're the non-lurking player they could reasonably go after at this point in the game.

looking at 230, I'm kinda meh about your argument. Regfan is an excellent player but I feel like he has some blind spots. Everybody does. The last game he and I played (of about 3 games total iirc) he misread town-me and scum-nacho. I was having an absolutely terrible game, and I don't hold it against him, but his basic rules of thumb don't work on some players, and some aspects of my town play that are blindingly town to some people (Empire, for instance) aren't obvious town to him.

Also, the main reason I was initially scumreading Empire in the Signs and Void game turned out to be RegFan's Tammy read, which was a misread I had a lot of trouble seeing town-Empire make.

Soooo, I felt like his initial reasons for having a light scumread on you were ok and his push, to the extent it was a push (e.g., not much of one at that point) made sense.

[sangres]

Hi Ffery! Where's my PM at?

[sangres]

also sangres probably town question mark

I'm comfortable with ffery's interaction with me up until now, for what that's worth

-b

I'm not, it looked pretty scummy to me.

[sangres]

I don't agree with Empire at all about Quilfords Post 51 where he considers us being scum, I'm reading that as more of a town-tell than a scum-tell here

That wasn't an attack that was fleshed out enough to be a towntell, unless you truly believe your hydra is so terrifying where Quilford wouldn't even joke about you guys being scum after the town tokens fiasco.

[sangres]

Hi Ffery! Where's my PM at?

It's in the zanaflex-fueled black hole I'm using for a brain this weekend. :/

Aside from that one thing I mentioned by text msg, most of my coherent thoughts about the game so far are in post 198 through this one.

[sangres]

Pie is incredibly incredibly incredibly town. I think I'm going to vote RBD for not seeing that when they should have.

Vote: Rancid Broderick Drake

[sangres]

I don't really think ffery's done anything alignment indicative yet and am a little surprised at the strongish town reads there. I really really do not get pie's read there at all based on asking empire a question, which is a standard question she would ask alignment regardless.

I would say that the biggest mistake people make with Ffery is that they call her town for questions that would be town if they were pushes. I don't think Pieguy is making that mistake. I think everyone else probably is.

[sangres]

bucket.

If a mislynched a you and Bork hydra I think I'd probably quit the site.

I don't think there's anything else I could do in this world to reach that high.

[sangres]

I don't think initial pushes on Yuriko are very good unless she has a habit of completely making up shit for no reason as scum. There is very rarely a reason to lie about setup spec/lie about opinions on setup spec since its free truthposting for scum, and I think if her scum strategy is to avoid doing shit by speculating on the setup, then it will become much more obvious down the road.

I think speculation on "why would scum prime themselves?" on the bottom of #102 looks vaguely townish, it doesn't seem likely that she would talk about that sort of thing in the thread as scum.

[sangres]

Nacho, I'd really recommend y'know reading this game properly (Post 251 proves you haven't really), if you had you'd realise the only person with a town-read on Ffyer for her asking questions alone is Pie. Also if you still feel the same way then run me through the town read on Pie in depth plz.

Not nacho, but (ironically) this post seems to be made while unaware of Pie's posts 230 and the latter part of 233.

[sangres]

the ffery town read is entirely about her confidence. this probably sounds really dumb but that's how I always read her and it's always been right, so it works for me. I don't think she'd immediately jump in and push Empire first thing in the game if she was scum here for this reason (it would be a more bold move than what I'm used to from her).

The fact that pie specifically focused in on Ffery's confidence is what told me she was approaching the read properly. I think the rest of her posts were trying to explain the confidence she saw in Ffery's early posts.

[sangres]

I have read the game in its entirety, Regfan. I'm not particularly inclined to explain the pietown read at this point in time since RBD's read on Pie is a huge part of how I'm reading the slot and I think you are in a tunnel mode wrt pie and I don't think my explanations will be enough to derail you from that tunnel.

[sangres]

#112 feels like a giant overreaction

The big thing I don't like about RBD's push on pieguyn is this. Do you think that overreacting is a scumtell for Pieguyn in particular? More importantly, what about pieguyn's reaction felt fake?

The push bothered me in particular because I feel like it's an important one for Muffin to make; attacking pieguyn validates GB's push and frustrates pie more, which is perfect for giving him a bit more breathing room in a playerlist where a lot of players can obvtown very quickly.

[sangres]

There are a couple people here who've been pretty decent at reading you, but In your fit over the reasoning I'm not getting a feeling of fuck you regfan there are people who can read me, I get obvtown when I'm town so you'll see, kinda vibe which I would expect if you're this mad. Instead you seem mad at the reasoning, which is concerning considering its a page four scum read and by definition is going to be weak.

I disagree with the expected reaction.

[sangres]

Pieguyn is my strongest town read. If she were scum this game, she would have had to have changed a huge part of her scum meta broken that I haven't seen broken yet (in that she's less likely to make pushes like this as scum in the first place but when she does she often doesn't weave her emotions in as genuinely as she has here).

Gold Saucer is my second strongest town read; I agree that borks opening posts were pretty town but the towniest things to come out of that slot in my opinion were probably Bork not liking Quilford post where lack of clarity was OK in this medium and Tammys reach out to pie.

I think Gentleman Bastards is probably town; Regfan engaging tunnel mode after pieguyn overreacted to the initial push on her makes sense, and level engagement here is far more impressive than level of engagement in White Flag plus it would be oh so cruel for the RNG gods to give them scum here.

I liked BBMolla's play this game. I like that he was the first (or second, don't remember off the top of my head if Quilford mentioned it first) that Pie vs GB was TvT and I thought his sentiment of not really giving a shit about that fight in general was decently town to me. I also think that his "I think Yuriko is a firefighter" posts are indicative of his town mindset although not particularly unfakeable.

Quilford I think has good tone and decent contributions so far. I have slight concerns that he's been falling under the radar a bit, but these concerns aren't particularly strong considering GB/Pie.

Yuriko I've talked about, mostly null, slightly slightly leaning town.

Soft-Spoken null by play, scum by reads elsewhere.

RBD scum.

[sangres]

I swear to fuck Nacho, if you're buddying me right now I'm personally driving all the way to Chicago and punching you in the face. fortunately, I think you're just town.

I almost wish I was scum right now just so I could thoroughly enjoy watching as Regfan expends all his effort trying to lynch me and fails. ~

What do you think of my thoughts on RBD/why I think he reacted to you the way he did?

[sangres]

I'm happy to listen to logic, I'm not convinced he's scum (There are some parts of his reaction that I do read as townish) but there's a lot of issues I have with his reads, stances and attacks on us that he needs to clear up for me.

I'm happy addressing specific points if you want me to. I'm not particularly inclined to type up a wall on why Pieguyn is town because phone and I doubt it will be necessary.

[sangres]

yeah, but seriously

lying about what a push is?

lying about what a push is?!?!?!

The advantage of scum-Regfan doing this is...?

[sangres]

Be back in about an hour.

[sangres]

you weren't considering the context

This is a very easy mistake to make. I don't think Regfan felt overly strong about the point in the first place (it's one of those things you bring up to validate a read, start looking more closely at a player), and I don't think that town-him necessarily realizes or thinks deeply about the "posting in games is much more effort than browsing the site/GD" point" you would bring up later.

[sangres]

like, suppose for argument's sake I was scum here. what exactly was I attempting to accomplish by doing that? what in god's green earth do I gain by lying about something that's 1. easily fact checkable, 2. such a major point it's pointless to lie about?

It's a dumb thing to lie about, yes. There is scum motivation to lie about it if you as scum thought that Regfan's push was strong enough for you to fake an emotional meltdown in response to it and then you decided to backtrack once you saw that wasn't the case.

[sangres]

you, on the other hand, seem content with it - this is where my issue lies

I don't think they've just seemed "content" with the meta circle being town.

[sangres]

but it didn't feel like you were really stopping to consider possibilities here. it looks like you thought, "oh, look at this newb who keeps flip flopping and contradicting herself; it looks like I'd be able to push this really easily", and so there it was.

It seems unreasonable to expect Rempire to consider possibilities for their very first push of the game. It is possible that they thought Yuriko was an easy push, but there also wasn't anything particularly townish in those posts so I don't see why an early push there is so egregious.

[sangres]

the advantage of that is he wants to look like he has a point here and hope people accept it as truth without actually thinking critically/checking what actually happened.

People usually can't get away with pushes like that. Regfan doesn't have a scum game where he tries to get away with pushes like that.

[sangres]

Pie is incredibly incredibly incredibly town. I think I'm going to vote RBD for not seeing that when they should have.

Vote: Rancid Broderick Drake

At what point do you think they should have seen this and acted differently than they have?

-b

I have a problem with their reaction to Pie's initial reaction to GB's vote.

[sangres]

I have trouble you seeing Ffyers question directed to Empire a town-tell of any sort and similarly have trouble believing the two posts that we made would lead Town!You to "awful/scum", this continues to be a p large concern I have with you.

I don't think you understand how pie is approaching reading Ffery, which is why I tried to push you to the confidence point as her main point above anything else.

I think pie has a tendency to be overly critical of people pushing her, which I stated before. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that seeing someone with your reputation pushing her and other people scumreading her results in an overreaction. I fail to see why she would overreact in that way as scum.

[sangres]

:/

GB maybe town.

Why?

[sangres]

so the bolded actually really really pisses me off and makes me really hope you're scum here.

I'm sure the big thing she's concerned about is your Bork/Tammy read. She seems to be pretty paranoid about the block of meta reads being cleared, so it's not a gigantic stretch that she would view the way you presented the town reads in an irrational light, especially when Quilford *probably* isn't included in the meta circle she's referring to.

[sangres]

Pie is incredibly incredibly incredibly town. I think I'm going to vote RBD for not seeing that when they should have.

Vote: Rancid Broderick Drake

At what point do you think they should have seen this and acted differently than they have?

-b

I have a problem with their reaction to Pie's initial reaction to GB's vote.

Because of Xenosaga in particular (I remember them getting into it there) or because of a body of work together with the two of them or something else?

-b

My expectations of Muffin as a town player versus a scum player in general.

[sangres]

Like this is obviously about the specifics of the relationship between zmuffin and pie, otherwise what you wrote in 250 makes no sense

-b

No. Pie was very town in the post Muffin called an overreaction. I would expect Muffin to see why. I would expect Muffin as scum in that position to view keeping that fight going as very very advantageous to him.

[sangres]

the advantage of that is he wants to look like he has a point here and hope people accept it as truth without actually thinking critically/checking what actually happened.

People usually can't get away with pushes like that. Regfan doesn't have a scum game where he tries to get away with pushes like that.

These kinds of odd conclusions that presume the other players in the game are mindless idiots (including the one I pointed out in #133) are really stopping me from being able to put pieguyn in the townpile which I kind of have been wanting to do based on her emotions when reacting to GB

I think Pieguyn making these sorts of conclusions is a stronger tell of confirmation bias than it is of pieguy being scum.

[sangres]

I would expect Muffin to see why.

This is obviously the thing I've been asking you to explain yourself on and you're deflecting doing it

-b

I didn't know that was the explanation you were looking for. I'd rather hear from RBD before explaining why, although I guess the explanation doesn't get more sophisticated than "I think Muffin is town and I don't think strong emotion is one of his blind spots".

[sangres]

I would expect Muffin as scum in that position to view keeping that fight going as very very advantageous to him.

Also why in particular is this true since it relies on negative associatives between RBD and both pieguy AND GB for this to hold any reasonable amount of water

-b

It requires GB and Pieguyn to both be town, which isn't that much of a stretch at all.

[sangres]

It's also not something that anyone should take for granted at this point in the game?

Like what do I do, as a town player, that legitimately wants to cut through that stuff and doesn't know the alignment of either player?

I don't know how you can possibly discern between that and "keeping the fight going".

-b

p-edit: above @sangres

You don't know the alignment of either player, but you should be able to take a pretty educated guess at that point and react accordingly.

[sangres]

It's also not something that anyone should take for granted at this point in the game?

Like what do I do, as a town player, that legitimately wants to cut through that stuff and doesn't know the alignment of either player?

I don't know how you can possibly discern between that and "keeping the fight going".

-b

p-edit: above @sangres

you're responding to nacho. this is ffery. my first post of the morning, and I don't want confusion about who's who right now.

Look at your own reaction to their brouhaha. IMO there's a difference.

[sangres]

I'm having a really hard time accepting that you think it's inprobable that town-muffin would do something other than immediately clear pie based on stuff that happened on ~page 6 that also, imo, was somewhat limited in content at that point.

I'm not saying I expect Muffin to "immediately clear" Pieguyn, I'm saying I'd expect that his conclusion would he that pie is riskier than not.

[sangres]

It was limited in content, yes, but it was enough content to make an alignment-indicative call. I would not have had as much of a problem with it if Muffin thought the reaction was null, either, but calling it scummy seemed the most unbelievable and also had the greatest advantage for scum.

[sangres]

Specifics?

You challenged both of them about statements/stances, which is in keeping with your feeling that town wouldn't *know* either of their alignments.. What Muffin did looked more like taking sides.

[sangres]

It's not that "overreacting" is a scum tell (and the fact you're simplifying it to that when it's pretty clear that's not what I was saying is one of the things I don't like about this stance you're taking on me).

I don't think overreaction is a bad way to summarize your thoughts on Pie-scum. You believed his reactions weren't genuine because they seemed to be aggressive without having a reason to be aggressive, with added incentive to do so because of his meta, which means you think that he's scummy because he's overreacting, no?

[sangres]

You're talking about #119, prior to when the back-and-forth between them actually started, right? Like, when there weren't even sides to actually take on the argument that hadn't yet happened, right?

It was fairly obvious that's where the tide of the game was going, unless you don't think you'd be able to pick up on that as scum.

[sangres]

You challenged both of them about statements/stances, which is in keeping with your feeling that town wouldn't *know* either of their alignments.. What Muffin did looked more like taking sides.

You're talking about #119, prior to when the back-and-forth between them actually started, right? Like, when there weren't even sides to actually take on the argument that hadn't yet happened, right?

For the record, I didn't agree with everything gentlemen was writing about pieguy but I did in particular agree with the second point of 130.

-Nati

No, this is ffery and I think I have a different view on your interactions/stance. I was a little surprised when I saw that Nacho voted you, but I'm also thinking a direct approach here may shed more light than what I was going to do - shrug and wait for Nati to come play. I've mentioned Zenosaga already in the context of how pieguy reacted to GB. Your reaction to her in that game is reminiscent. Also, I've been thinking about the S&S game and was probably going to write a minor wall about it today. In a nutshell, the thing that feels different to me about pie/GB vs pie/Chandra has to do with their relative strength as town players/lynchability. Also, I don't remember Ceph going after pie before pie started pushing him (might have happened, but it had nothing to do with pie's manufactured scumcase on Ceph). Also, from my perspective, Pie's case bordered on nonsensical. I wasn't scumreading her for it - I mostly ignored it as noise, and made a couple passes at trying to point out where she was wrong.

Anyway, I'd kinda like for you to talk about what you think of the way their argument has evolved when you get a chance.

[sangres]

You're talking about #119, prior to when the back-and-forth between them actually started, right? Like, when there weren't even sides to actually take on the argument that hadn't yet happened, right?

It was fairly obvious that's where the tide of the game was going, unless you don't think you'd be able to pick up on that as scum.

That's not the point. You're saying my post was bad because I didn't weigh in on both sides of the argument but bork's was fine because he weighed in on both sides of the argument.

There was no argument to weigh in on.

-Nati

You're conflating nacho's thoughts with mine.

[sangres]

hm. I think I was less than clear. I thought pie's case on Ceph bordered on the nonsensical. And paranoia about ceph is a thing, which made town-him a decent and low-risk target.

I obviously disagree with the case on GB, but it fits with what I know about town-pie that she'd react the way she did, and then double down and dig in.

[sangres]

Actually, before I go, are you and nacho actually discussing the game or is it a leaving-thoughts-for-the-other-to-read-later thing?

-Nati

We're not doing much of either yet. I was going to leave nacho thoughts in a PM yesterday but couldn't really gather my thoughts once I had time because meds. We've had about 5 lines of text each via chat or text message, some of it in real time. directionally, we're seeing the large picture similarly, and I feel like what we're seeing differently will work itself out naturally. It usually does, except when he's wrong and I'm right! Which doesn't actually happen all that often.

I don't think overreaction is a bad way to summarize your thoughts on Pie-scum. You believed his reactions weren't genuine because they seemed to be aggressive without having a reason to be aggressive, with added incentive to do so because of his meta, which means you think that he's scummy because he's overreacting, no?

Also, was this nacho of ffery?

-Nati

It was nacho.

[sangres]

- Did you actually think my issue with pieguy was as simple as "overreacting"?
- Do you think I'd push pieguy for something as simple as "overreacting" if I were scum?

-No.
-No.

[sangres]

hmmm

@ffery:

would you say that my original angle that Regfan was saying I was scum "lying about what a push is" was reasonable? aka, if you agreed that was what he was doing would he be scum for it?

I don't have any intention to push it further; I'm asking for an entirely unrelated reason.

I don't know if "reasonable" is the right word. It was understandable, though I disagreed with your take. (this is what in retrospect was wrong with your play in S&S - your push on ceph wasn't understandable and it was quite intractable/you wouldn't acknowledge the points against it)

- I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the second part of that. :/ When you say "that was what he was doing", what do you mean? Do you mean that holding that opinion about your posts would be innately scummy?

[sangres]

- Why do you think I should have been town-reading pieguy as of post #119? Or at what point do you think I should have been town-reading him? For the record, I'm still not really town-reading him. Though I think it's a lot less likely he's scum than I previously did.

I think that it was more likely than not that Pieguyn was approaching the game from a town perspective than a scum one when she had the initial reaction she did to Regfan's post. I think the moment you decided that it was more likely that she was overreacting on page 6 as a play for town cred as opposed to a genuine reaction was where your play looked like it was coming from scum as opposed to town.

[sangres]

If you get a chance read Reg's iso (he was only in the game for day 2) and my day 1 play (my first 207 posts - yeah I know - over 1000 post iso. I had multiple breakdowns in that game) and see if you think his read of me was understandable.

I maintain that anyone who actually knows what marks my towngame would not have misread me, but I totally understood someone who hasn't played much with me thinking I was scum after the first game day.

I'm giving you this instead of an answer because I have to go to the doctor right now, and I want to as objective an answer to your question as I can, which will involve another reread, from a different perspective. In the meanwhile, I think seeing what sorts of things regfan picked up as scummy about my day 1 play in that game *might* be a window into his mindset, method of forming reads, and method of pushing scumreads.

[sangres]

forgot to paste the gamelink into that post: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=59772

[sangres]

^^ to pie.

back soon-sh.

Sorry zmuffin. Will get to your posts in an hour or so.

[sangres]

Also, I'm trying to wrap my head around pieguy being your strongest town read in this game, even accounting for a difference of opinion on pieguy's entrance to this game.

Who should my strongest townread be?

[sangres]

I'm beginning to think you're using pieguy as a crutch to attack me because (a) you can't figure out a good way to attack me otherwise, and (b) you can't figure out a good way to attack other players.

You should know better on both. If I wanted to attack you as scum, I would vote you because you haven't done anything particularly town yet and leave it at that. If I wanted to attack someone else, I still have options otherwise in Yuriko/Soft-Spoken/BBMolla.

[sangres]

aaand I'm back.

how does this setup change scumhunting in your opinion?

i thought this would be obvious. most legitimate scum-tells are invalid in this setup. multiple people have come in and acted like this isnt the case, but then i have to wonder what you think a scumtell is.

the only legitimate scum-tell that can be read into considering the circumstances of this setup... preservation motive.

I disagree. I'll say something about why I disagree *after* the person I asked this question answers it.

[sangres]

do you think that a potential Regfan-scum would have legitimate reason (for example, the one I pointed out in 276 - there might be another potential reason) to lie about my play?

I'm asking bc I actually think I'm seeing some parallels in what zmuffin did here to what he did in Varsoon in Touhou IN. having an objective view on whether what I was saying was understandable from an outside POV would help me think through it.

p-edit: @ffery

It would have to be an extremely plausible lie to make it worth the potential backlash. You're referring to a game I didn't play or follow, so I'm not sure what parallel you're drawing.

I'm feeling cranky and low-blood-sugary and right now I'm not seeing a lot of benefit to trying to work through whatever this is with you. It didn't look quite as bottomless pit when I first saw the questions. pot of coffee is brewing and I might feel more sanguine (this joke never gets old) about the topic in a bit, but meanwhile I want to dig through the zmuffin/nacho convo and see what I think about it.

[sangres]

Who should my strongest townread be?

I would have thought you'd have a stronger read on, say, bork-hydra because I'm nowhere near as familiar with them as you are and I'm pretty sure they're town and they're not even my strongest town read tbh so yeah. I think you're

I can find scumgames from borkhydra that look pretty similar to this one (Tales of You). I can't find scumgames from pie that look anything like this. Can you?

[sangres]

er... Submitted early.

I think you're bullshitting the strength of your pieguy town read.

I would vote you because you haven't done anything particularly town yet and leave it at that.

That would be an even worse angle than your current push, tbh, and I probably would have driven you into the ground if you even tried that.

But yes, your only other real options would be pushing Yuriko (who hasn't really done anything town but you have a very awkward town read on for setup spec which doesn't make a whole lot of sense), Soft-Spoken (for... not posting, I guess?) or bbMolla (even though I don't think you could actually make a case on bbMolla).

-Nati

"I have town reads on most active players. I believe RBD hasn't posted anything unfakeable so far. Vote: RBD"
What is your problem with that vote?

"I think Yuriko has been posting some terrible setup spec in order to avoid actually scumhunting"
What is your problem with that vote?

[sangres]

I don't deny that this position is implausible coming from me as scum, but pretending that I don't have any alternatives is kind of ridiculous.

[sangres]

I don't think pie being my town read should be particularly difficult to believe. She's posted a lot of shit in general. A lot of it has been undeniably genuine. I can understand the circumstances that caused her to post some of the more unreasonable shit. I have a tendency to care less about logical inconsistencies than you do. I do have a pretty high familiarity with pie, so I'm comfortable making a read like this. What am I missing that makes this sort of read unacceptable?

[sangres]

I heard about Serum and Steel, haven't gotten the chance to go over it.

[sangres]

Pie is incredibly incredibly incredibly town. I think I'm going to vote RBD for not seeing that when they should have.

Vote: Rancid Broderick Drake

This is something that needs talked about like ASAP, though. Why does RBD get held to such a high standard of being able to read pieguyn accurately if they're town (assuming pieguyn is actually town here) rather than my slot or Gold Saucer (who I am assuming has been in a number of games with pie)? (Ignore this if this has already been answered, but I am reeling a bit from this vote and I'm not even super confident Muffin is town.)

I think it's reasonable for you/Regfan to respond to the read because pie overreacted to your vote and I wouldn't expect her to have the same experience with pie that I/Muffin has. I think Tammy in general usually takes a long time to form reads, so her not having a town read to start is to be expected.

[sangres]

I think Gentleman Bastards is probably town; Regfan engaging tunnel mode after pieguyn overreacted to the initial push on her makes sense, and level engagement here is far more impressive than level of engagement in White Flag plus it would be oh so cruel for the RNG gods to give them scum here.

Also, Nacho, have you read any of my posts? I find it really jarring that you didn't even mention me in this explanation for a townread on our slot.

Why?

[sangres]

Nacho, that question had absolutely nothing to do with pieguyn and everything to do with your read on Muffin so your latest is a non-answer.

That latest wasn't a response to your posting.

[sangres]

Also if "this" is the push on Regfan and you think that's similar to something he's done as town before, what game/s are you referring to?

The game I'm referencing is the newbie where I ended up pushing him, but my first reaction to his posting wasn't "this looks like that newbie game", it was "this posting looks really really town", which was the reaction I expected you to share/understand/agree with.

[sangres]

if you've seen my other recent games, you'd notice that's not the first time I've stolen your phrases, either!

It seems odd you would steal a phrase if you were as frustrated as you seemed.

[sangres]

You're still not saying what you thought looked "really town" about it

It seemed like a genuine move, and it seemed like an unlikely approach for piescum to take. It seemed like an unlikely approach to take because even if pie was looking to fake aggression, it's a position I doubt she would take immediately (piescum would know that most people wouldn't take a page 4 aggressive push like that seriously, ever), and making pushes like that are really ridiculous risks that get people confbiased into a strong scum read immediately, which is hell to deal with as scum.

[sangres]

I don't deny that this position is implausible coming from me as scum, but pretending that I don't have any alternatives is kind of ridiculous.

Oh also I think you had alternatives, they were just all shitty from the perspective of you wanting to look like you were thinking about the game in a town way

except nacho didn't need to look like he's thinking about the game, or even make an appearance. I've been playing with easy going confidence, had hit my stride and have been virtually fizzing with the joy that being town gives me.

If we were scum, the last thing nacho would have wanted to do was mess with that. This would be *my* break out game if we were scum.

We're not scum. We're gamesolving. If you're town, I think you should be able to see that.

[sangres]

So you think that push seemed genuine because you don't think pieguy-scum would want to get into a tunnel argument?

ffery reply. I don't think scum-pieguy is afraid to tunnel. It's the zero to 100, wild-eyed paranoid leap into a 1v1 tunnel that doesn't look like something scum-pieguy would do. her tunnel in S&S didn't have even a whiff of wild-eyed paranoia.

[sangres]

I don't deny that this position is implausible coming from me as scum, but pretending that I don't have any alternatives is kind of ridiculous.

Oh also I think you had alternatives, they were just all shitty from the perspective of you wanting to look like you were thinking about the game in a town way

except nacho didn't need to look like he's thinking about the game, or even make an appearance. I've been playing with easy going confidence, had hit my stride and have been virtually fizzing with the joy that being town gives me.

If we were scum, the last thing nacho would have wanted to do was mess with that. This would be *my* break out game if we were scum.

We're not scum. We're gamesolving. If you're town, I think you should be able to see that.

Um, I don't think nacho could have got away with not posting in this player list and I don't see the game solving you're apparently doing (though to be fair I don't have much of an issue with your posts - I just don't think you've done anything particularly town-looking and I don't believe for one second that you can honestly call nacho's play here game-solving)

It absolutely is. he's come to the same conclusion about strong town reads and PoE. The only difference really is that he's ready to push and sort you, where I'd observe more and try to interact with nati before reaching enough of a conclusion about you specifically vs ot

I don't deny that this position is implausible coming from me as scum, but pretending that I don't have any alternatives is kind of ridiculous.

Oh also I think you had alternatives, they were just all shitty from the perspective of you wanting to look like you were thinking about the game in a town way

except nacho didn't need to look like he's thinking about the game, or even make an appearance. I've been playing with easy going confidence, had hit my stride and have been virtually fizzing with the joy that being town gives me.

If we were scum, the last thing nacho would have wanted to do was mess with that. This would be *my* break out game if we were scum.

We're not scum. We're gamesolving. If you're town, I think you should be able to see that.

Um, I don't think nacho could have got away with not posting in this player list and I don't see the game solving you're apparently doing (though to be fair I don't have much of an issue with your posts - I just don't think you've done anything particularly town-looking and I don't believe for one second that you can honestly call nacho's play here game-solving)

It absolutely is. he's come to the same conclusion about our strong town reads and PoE. The only difference really is that he's ready to push and sort you, where I'd observe more and try to interact with nati before reaching enough of a conclusion about you to start a push on you guys.

Also, though scum-nacho wouldn't let me carry this slot, and nor would I want to, he was under no immediate pressure to show up and take stances.

[sangres]

So you think that push seemed genuine because you don't think pieguy-scum would want to get into a tunnel argument?

ffery reply. I don't think scum-pieguy is afraid to tunnel. It's the zero to 100, wild-eyed paranoid leap into a 1v1 tunnel that doesn't look like something scum-pieguy would do. her tunnel in S&S didn't have even a whiff of wild-eyed paranoia.

Can you give me a specific example of the wide-eyed paranoia and talk about why you think it was town

To me, her reaction looked paranoid from the very start, hence my description of zero to 100. her expressions about the meta-circle are where that sense kinda peaked - like she felt town players closing ranks with scum-GB and she had to claw that loose and nascent rotten-at-the-center townbloc apart right then before it was too late. All of the stuff that boils down to semantics also looked super-paranoid to me, because she wasn't questioning how that could possibly be a misunderstanding coming from a town player.

[sangres]

muffin, I know that we approach mafia very differently, and it's not unusual for us to disagree about some players when we're both town. Disagreeing about this interaction gives me pause. On my own, I'd probably be trying to mediate between you two while mulling over what it all means in the back corner of my mind.

You say you think we're scum. Do you think we're partners with pieguy?

[sangres]

So you think that push seemed genuine because you don't think pieguy-scum would want to get into a tunnel argument?

It was too early for pie to believe that a tunnel argument would be taken seriously/too early to make that call. Deciding to respond to a very, very soft push like that as scum is making a move that is pretty fucking hard to back off from and it's a gigantic risk because either it works or it doesn't.

[sangres]

I also think the 0 to 100 point is a great one; I tried to get at something similar earlier, but couldn't find the words.

[sangres]

I don't believe for one second that you can honestly call nacho's play here game-solving

Odd perspective to take.
What lacks in my play for it to be game-solving?

[sangres]

I think Pieguyn making these sorts of conclusions is a stronger tell of confirmation bias than it is of pieguy being scum.

Of conf bias? Not sure how they're a tell of that. Can you explain?

I find it pretty normal for town players to find issues with a player's posting and then having trouble coming up with the scum motivation for that particular posting later; it's usually a second thought and not having strong points for scum-motivation usually doesn't stop someone from pushing a case if they still feel a player is acting weird. I also think it makes sense as a motivation for pieguy to push, considering she's seen it a couple time in the past.

[sangres]

I'm not sure why you disagree.

Well, it strikes me as like the worst scum tactic ever haha

It's a fine tactic to push if you think people will let you get away with it, if you think people won't read the push you're making on someone else in its entirety, or they won't understand why what you're pushing is bullshit.

[sangres]

do you think that a potential Regfan-scum would have legitimate reason (for example, the one I pointed out in 276 - there might be another potential reason) to lie about my play?

I'm asking bc I actually think I'm seeing some parallels in what zmuffin did here to what he did in Varsoon in Touhou IN. having an objective view on whether what I was saying was understandable from an outside POV would help me think through it.

p-edit: @ffery

coming back to this, I am still confused. You're asking me about regfan, but you're talking about parallels in muffin's play here to Touhou IN. Also, refresh my memory about zmuffin and Varsoon?

[sangres]

Pie is incredibly incredibly incredibly town. I think I'm going to vote RBD for not seeing that when they should have.

Vote: Rancid Broderick Drake

This is something that needs talked about like ASAP, though. Why does RBD get held to such a high standard of being able to read pieguyn accurately if they're town (assuming pieguyn is actually town here) rather than my slot or Gold Saucer (who I am assuming has been in a number of games with pie)? (Ignore this if this has already been answered, but I am reeling a bit from this vote and I'm not even super confident Muffin is town.)

This is ffery. The vote kinda surprised me when I saw it, but only a little. The group of players who play fairly frequently with each other and started this game with a lot of activity were in the process of linking up almost as a clique, shutting down and shutting out players who haven't played with each other/us much if at all. That's an unwarranted level of complacency. Of that group-that-could-easily-become-a-clique, RBD is by far the least town-looking to me and even more so to Nacho. Sorting them is pretty damned important.

There's a playful humor that underscores everything town-zmuffin posts usually, even when he's verbally eviscerating someone. It was there at the start but it faded pretty quickly. Do you know what I'm talking about in his usual town play? Do you see what I'm talking about regarding his play so far here?

I think Gentleman Bastards is probably town; Regfan engaging tunnel mode after pieguyn overreacted to the initial push on her makes sense, and level engagement here is far more impressive than level of engagement in White Flag plus it would be oh so cruel for the RNG gods to give them scum here.

Also, Nacho, have you read any of my posts? I find it really jarring that you didn't even mention me in this explanation for a townread on our slot.

I want to read your slot via your posts because I know you better and I'm fairly confident I can read you, but regfan has been much more of a presence, and in fact has spearheaded the interactions with pieguy - the interactions that have kicked this game into high gear. Aside from "I think Empire agrees with regfan?" I really don't have much to go on with your play now that the game is moving. It was even regfan who questioned me about my posts to you earlier.

[sangres]

Okay.

VOTE: Soft-spoken

What's the "okay" portion about?

[sangres]

coming back to this, I am still confused. You're asking me about regfan, but you're talking about parallels in muffin's play here to Touhou IN. Also, refresh my memory about zmuffin and Varsoon?

oh, I'm not talking about what Regfan did in this game. I'm talking about zmuffin's play.

in Touhou IN, there was Varsoon vs. me right at the start. now, obviously I was wrong, but zmuffin essentially picked a side (Varsoon over me) and defended it. the effect of this (you could argue this was unintentional, but I'm pretty sure it was significant enough to be noticeable) was that it made Varsoon feel validated re: what he thought he was seeing on me.

now, at the end of all of this, my scum read on GB essentially came down to

- their push on Yuriko looking like scum attacking low-hanging fruit
- them claiming I lied about what a "push" is- which looked like they were just coming up with bullshit and hoping people accepted it as truth without realizing it made no sense
- the initial point about me "active lurking".

I don't think GB is scum anymore. but I don't think any of these points were "nonsensical", and it sure as hell wasn't as nonsensical as that lolpush from S&S. pushing on a newb over logical inconsistencies is a fairly common scum play, and I think it's one that would be more necessary than usual in a playerlist like this (where I would estimate at most one person from the "meta-circle", if town, would be lynchable); and I think the second point is reasonable as well. I literally saw Mala pull the exact same thing the last game I played: she lied about what my scum read on her was in order to make it look like I had less on her than I really did. Nacho also did the same thing to me in the newbie game I've been alluding to earlier where he lynched me (and I'm pretty fucking sure zmuffin has direct experience with this as a scum tactic, since iirc it played a large part in his xenosaga mollie read).

writing it off as "nonsensical" feels more like an attempt at getting on GB's good side than actually believing what he's saying. which, surprise, is the same thing he did there.

there's a few things I'm trying to figure out here (maybe it was too difficult to follow what I was thinking, and he thought I thought GB was scum for points I had given up already). I still think the first point is fair, and while the third point makes a lot of sense in my head, everyone else seemed to think it made no sense, so, meh. I'm not sure if people would think my second point is actually understandable or not. if it's likely someone wouldn't, that would make me feel a lot less strongly about this.

Ok this makes a hell of a lot more sense to me. With a memory jog, I remember the stuff between zmuffin and you, too.

I pointed out earlier in reply to bork that the thing I saw as different between his reaction to the you/GB 1v1 and zmuffin's reaction was that bork was questioning both of you.

[sangres]

I'm here. kinda zapped out.

was going to ask you if you're caught up and have reads, but I think that's negatory based on 434.

[sangres]

I'm here. kinda zapped out.

was going to ask you if you're caught up and have reads, but I think that's negatory based on 434.

I've read enough and am armed with muffin notes+my own precognitions so yeah. I miss using you as a filter ://

My strong-town list: goldsaucer, pieguy, gb
My nulltown list: bbmolla, quillford (nacho would put Yuriko here too, I think)

What do you think of these players?

oh god a million posts in pre-edit.

And pippin wants my undivided.

[sangres]

I'm still not in on the joke

Also because I'm really bad at scum and I don't wanna ruin RBD's first scum game, Nati is taking over posting duties from whenever she gets back today since I am really

lazy

busy.

Also, Nati is probably a whole lot easier to read than I am, anyway

, which means less work for me so win/win

-Nati

Is this muffin or Nati

that was muffin.

[sangres]

those are pretty much the opposite of zmuffin's reads.

[sangres]

those are pretty much the opposite of zmuffin's reads.

Yeah but I'm not muffin.

-zmuffinman

I know. and his complete tone deafness to emotional factors in mindset was freaking me out. but I felt like there was more to it than that.

[sangres]

sangres which head is here atm

ffery

[sangres]

he's been pretty humorless once the game got serious. and the way he took sides in the pie/gb 1v1

@nati

[sangres]

sangres which head is here atm

sangres which head is here atm

ffery

why did you ask?

[sangres]

I can't tell with hydra heads. Not you guys specifically just in general. I like to know who is talking.

Hence my annoyance with nati/muffin fucking with signing their posts.

they're pretty consistent with how they sign, though.

Ah, okay. I don't really know what say there :/

well, your comment about zmuffin being annoyed about being signed up for the game maybe shines some light on that.

I didn't mention it, but I wasn't too happy with his interactions with nacho and me either, though the stuff where he and I were butting heads to some extent boils down to tonal cues in pieguy's play.

[sangres]

bork, I want to acknowledge both of these posts because I'm not ignoring them.

Still on mobile for a few more min but i liked 393 enough that im willing to give you guys the benefit of the doubt.

UNVOTE:

I do want you guys to be a little more candid with me about what Nacho thinks he is seeing with muffin slot. I still don't understand your read and since you guys have been on your back foot the whole time since you made it i want to invite you to explain it in a non-hostile environment

-b

I don't completely understand nacho's concerns with zmuffin. I have some of my own concerns, and I think I've expressed them often enough and enough different ways that you know what they are whether you think they make sense or not. But, either nacho and I have to do more than touch bases about this game so I can convey his arguments and concerns, or he'll need to answer these questions himself.

I pointed out earlier in reply to bork that the thing I saw as different between his reaction to the you/GB 1v1 and zmuffin's reaction was that bork was questioning both of you.

I also would like to know why you think this matters to the extent it does

-b

I dunno. You've reacted in ways that I identify as similar to how you've reacted as town, both when we've played as a hydra and as two separate players in games. I find it harder to map zmuffin's play from game to game, but usually something sparks a town light (sometimes a false town light!). As I've been interacting with him and thinking about his play some of this has come into a little better focus, but I'm still personally unsure about him.

[sangres]

i was responding to several posts, no need to quote them all. i dont like that people were throwing around the "newb" sentiment at someone for being curious as to how to scum-hunt

in a setup where nobody has a known scum-partner

and nobody flips for quite some time

I don't see where you're getting the bolded from, but it at least explains that comment you made earlier.

[sangres]

Yeah but the sample role PM specifically mentions "you're an arsonist along with your partner player name" and talks about factional communication. I went back and checked when I saw the part of your post I bolded.

From the setup info post:

You are an

Arsonist

, along with your partner [Player Name]. You may post in the thread and vote as you see fit. Your additional abilities are listed below.

Abilities

:
- Factional Communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partner [Private Topic Link]here[/Private Topic Link].
- Factional Pyrotechnics: Each night phase either you or your partner may take one and only one of the the following actions:

• Prime
  a target for ignition by dousing them with gasoline.
  
• Ignite
  all previously primed targets by lighting them on fire and thus killing them.

Win Condition

:
- You win when only

Arsonist

aligned players are left alive, or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Confirmation

:
- Please confirm in-thread.

[sangres]

All I can say is don't underestimate Soft-spoken. I think it makes him more likely town, but I wouldn't bet the game on it.

Soft, what do you make of the reasons players are suspicious of you?

[sangres]

i see no actual reasons. i see one person being paranoid for my questionable entrance where i got to page 6 and realized i didnt want to read the rest of the game. this is quite obviously not a scumtell as i simply could have cherrypicked posts between 6-15 to respond to as scum.

and ya dont underestimate me... i have a 70% scum winrate on most of my accounts on EM and im 2/2 here

You're in more than one scumpile. Are they town non-reasons?

[sangres]

You're being PoE'd, mostly because there's a gossamer network of townreads forming.

There's something I've noticed about your early play in town games that I'm not seeing here. I've seen you make intentionally scummy entrances (which I thought you might be doing here) and then sort players based on what you thought of their reactions to your entrance.

[sangres]

I've seen you make intentionally scummy entrances (which I thought you might be doing here) and then sort players based on what you thought of their reactions to your entrance.

why did you have to say that out loud.

because it doesn't look to me like you were doing that here and that worries me more than anything else about your play.

[sangres]

have you made anything of Nati's posts so far?

Overall I feel positive about Nati's posts. It's a question of how much to offset that against the not-positive stuff I'm feeling about zmuffin. Nacho and I talked about Nati and zmuffin a little last night. nacho agrees that nati seemed pretty relaxed and comfortable about where her reads disagree with zmuffin's. he feels like she could be intentionally highlighting the reads differences for some plausible hydra deniability. Which is possible, but I think the whole crazy, confusing, dysfunctional hydra thing is also a part of their schtick - their joint persona. This is kind of in contrast to how Nati and I hydra. We sometimes disagree on a few reads, especially early on, but make an effort not to undermine each other.

Nati putting out some solid reads, though, feels a little town to me. My recollection from playing with scum-Nati in the past is that she's wishy-washy about reads on day 1.

Coming back after a multi-month hiatus with some style changes isn't shocking. Maybe that's most of the difference.

[sangres]

actually she's not *always* wishy-washy about reads as scum on day 1. iirc she came out with some fairly strong day 1 opinions when she replaced into the red wine large theme game.

[sangres]

- I think Empire stated where we're at on RBD the best when we were discussing this last and that's we find ourselves nodding our head with agreement and understand of every single posts of Muffins so far but there hasn't been a singular post of his that I've read and gone "Yeah okay Muffin is town here for sure" which I'm waiting for sure I think I'm fairly accurate at reading Muffin (I don't think I've misread you, have I?). I'd like to see less him commenting on Nacho/Pie and more his reads elsewhere in the room since that was the large issue I had with his huge wall response to Nacho - it ignored every single other player and he didn't remedy that at all afterwards. I'm notoriously awful at reading Nati (I think I read him as scum in every game I've spec'ed or played with him) so I'm just going to let Empire read through his posts and comment there but my general feeling was the way that he was differing and disagreeing with Muffins reads came across as kind of genuine and town but again I'll probably just attempt to get a read on that slot via Muffin or see if Empire has a strong point I agree with on Nati.

Nacho and I touched on this in our discussion last night - that zmuffin's had a sort of monofocus on us (actually on Nacho) to the exclusion of almost anything else going on in the game. An aspect of that focus is that he seems to have a massive, monolithic scumread on us, but isn't voting us atm.

There have been some trajectory-momentum changes in the game over the last 24 hours. I'm interested to see what zmuffin does with them.

[sangres]

This is ffery. The vote kinda surprised me when I saw it, but only a little. The group of players who play fairly frequently with each other and started this game with a lot of activity were in the process of linking up almost as a clique, shutting down and shutting out players who haven't played with each other/us much if at all. That's an unwarranted level of complacency. Of that group-that-could-easily-become-a-clique, RBD is by far the least town-looking to me and even more so to Nacho. Sorting them is pretty damned important.

There's a playful humor that underscores everything town-zmuffin posts usually, even when he's verbally eviscerating someone. It was there at the start but it faded pretty quickly. Do you know what I'm talking about in his usual town play? Do you see what I'm talking about regarding his play so far here?

I know what you're talking about re: muffin's playful humor but I don't see that as an exclusively town-muffin thing? To be fair, I don't have the experience you have playing with the guy to know with 100% certainty but my impression is that, differences in experiential meta aside, it seems fairly superficial and easy for muffin-scum to fake? So I don't view it as much of a tell here.

It's not an exclusively town-muffin thing. but its lack still worries me. zmuffin has been very good at fooling me in the past. In fact, he's talked about where my blind spots re him are, and how easy it is for him to slip through those blind spots. The last time he did it was in touhou 2. I replaced into the game at lylo and came in already suspicious of him (and of nacho for similar reasons). And almost instantly, he settled the concerns I had.

I went back and read the final day of that game yesterday.

Even with my guard up, I feel like scum-zmuffin would be able to talk me down off a scum-read if he wanted to. BUT - nacho is in this slot, too, which complicates things.

My problem with the vote and Nacho's push here is that it didn't really feel like a sorting at all? I mean, I totally get being squicked out by the cliquish-ness of the game, that's something that's been worrying me a lot here but I didn't get that feeling at all from Nacho's posts. I haven't talked with Regfan at all about your worries re: the gamestate yet, but I find your position to be way more relatable. We actually half-joked about how Nacho is scum and you are town. >_>

I don't have a good grasp on Nacho's concerns where they differ from mine. It's disorienting because if I don't understand, then I don't know if I'd agree with him. So I'm stuck with my own concerns - which Nacho agrees with. And I feel like it's my concerns that are making it into the thread in a more or less understandable way, which is leaving nacho's stance way more enigmatic than I think I've ever seen before. Even when he and I disagree on a read, I have been able to understand his read, and more importantly - convey it. After finally getting a chance to compare notes last night, my main takeaway is that nacho is actually feeling pretty frustrated with his inability to explain his read - he specifically mentioned that he can't yet see a way to answer bork's questions in a way he thinks will satisfy and make sense.

I want to read your slot via your posts because I know you better and I'm fairly confident I can read you, but regfan has been much more of a presence, and in fact has spearheaded the interactions with pieguy - the interactions that have kicked this game into high gear. Aside from "I think Empire agrees with regfan?" I really don't have much to go on with your play now that the game is moving. It was even regfan who questioned me about my posts to you earlier.

Aside from my IRL stuff trying its best to get in the way of my mafia addiction, Regfan tends to be the more active head of this hydra and I tend to defer to him a lot more because he's way better at the game than I am and he's more effective at communicating / getting things done. At any rate, even though there hasn't been a full flurry of solely Empire-town effort yet, I feel like I've posted plenty for Nacho to be able to just look at what I'm saying and recognize that I'm town (hell, you seem to have seen it in my posts) so it struck me as off that Nacho had nothing to say about me.

We both are townreading you. The basis of the read right now is more heavily reliant on regfan for the reasons you're outlining in this paragraph.

Going to get some coffee and then reading the rest of this game.

I have some errands to run, but I'll wait a bit since you'll be around.

[sangres]

Instead of answering questions about Muffin read, here's some stuff that doesn't talk about the read itself at all!

I think that Muffin as a scum player generally chooses reasonable lines of thought to pursue as scum. I think Muffin as a scum player generally does a good job of sounding genuine in his posting. As a result, the usual "this line of reasoning makes sense" doesn't really work, and "oh he sounds really genuine here" doesn't really work. As a result, I find it more productive to seeing how Muffin reacts to in game events and what sort of advantages they provide to him as scum. I think that the position he did take on early Reggiepie was convenient and provided decent advantage to him if he were scum. There are pieces in his reaction to me that feel like more likely coming from scum than town (the focus on me without a vote is a piece, some elements of the case on pieguyn is a piece), and every strong town read formed on someone who isn't RBD makes me more critical and aggressive towards him in general.

[sangres]

Nacho, I understand that the pieguyn push has advantages for Muffin-scum but I don't necessarily agree that that's what he is doing here.

I don't think that's necessarily what he's doing here either. I do think it's a move he makes more often as scum, and I do think he's a worthwhile push because of it.

[sangres]

You seem to understand the heart of my push. Are you and Regfan just completely taken aback by the intensity?

[sangres]

Because if that's the case, my answer is experimental way of reading someone and treestumps.

[sangres]

What do you think about Nati's posts? And are you ready to talk about the pieguyn townread yet?

I told Ffery I didn't mind Nati's posts overly much, although I thought the "fix it" comment wrt differences in reads was a bit weird, I would have thought Nati would have been a bit less confident in reads after her hiatus

[sangres]

I'm not making a wall on a pie town read for a while (until laptop).

[sangres]

Eh I am beginning to get the feeling i took a wrong turn at albequerque on this particular issue

-b

Weird Al's "Albuquerque" is now on continuous loop inside my head.

[sangres]

1) nacho never really adequately explained the special pleading he invoked as to why he pushed muffin for the conflicting read and not someone else

1) Rempire not identifying Pie's post was town wasn't overly surprising to me. Sometimes Regfan makes strange pushes and it doesn't surprise me that Empire gets a little caught up in them, and I wouldn't expect many players to get a town read on someone after they overreacted as much as pie did to the push on her.

I don't expect you to have the same reaction to pies push that I did. I don't play with you enough or have a strong enough understanding of you as a player to hold expectations of how you should react to things like that.

I expect Tammy to read pie's reactions as town eventually, but I also know she sometimes takes a while to form reads and that she's been doing other things.

Molla did have that reaction.

Quilford I know nothing about.

I know even less about soft-spoken and yuriko.

[sangres]

2) i don't find, in general terms, that disagreeing over a key read is something i would push someone on, and even less so this early in the game.

I think this is very very much a difference in playstyle; I've become a fervent believer of pushing someone on differences in reads after that newbie game we keep referencing. It helps me refine my own reads, and it makes it a lot more difficult for certain players to make those pushes they need to make to win the game as scum.

[sangres]

Yeah.

Could be faked but I doubt it.

i am perfectly capable of faking that FTR...

but, no... that was a townslip

the bolded made me a lot more comfortable with the townslip than I would be otherwise, and I find Soft's posting in general pretty great

[sangres]

#367 was pretty underwhelming as an assessment of the first 5 pages. I really don't like how he responds to sangres' question, it wasn't even directed at him. Padded out by a response to a joke by molla and a response to a post of mine that's already been thoroughly discussed, the whole thing reads like scum trying to look busy. There's not any actual scumhunting. Also don't like how he says he'll read pages 6-15 and then drops that as well, think he's afraid of people cottoning on if he puts out even more fluff. Last thing is that the abrupt change of tone in #410 is also a bit weird, oh and the fact that he hasn't explained any of his townreads and hasn't declared any scumreads at all.

If Soft-Spoken is a scum player who is skilled enough to drop a fake townslip as organically as he would have had to done here, I'm pretty confident he's a scum player who can manage to fake reads. This case assumes that Soft's scum game is actually a pile of garbage, but Soft's ISO if scum would most definitely not be that

[sangres]

I'm still trying to figure out what I make of Quil vs. S-S.

What are your reads on them individually?

[sangres]

my urge to lynch her rises with every prod dodge, but sorting RBD is our priority. Can't really think in full sentences outside that objective right now.

Could be the wine, maybe.

[sangres]

Nacho and I both will probably want to respond to your post in detail, zmuffin. In initial readthrough, though, I notice a couple instances where you have who posted what a little confused.

- 112 was the post where Nacho decided pieguyn was town. I was still trying to figure her out (and also think about GB) as their argument accelerated. I'm not sure I could point out a specific post where the read solidified, because the fact that Nacho has a strong read here influences my thoughts.

- The "dumb" argument about the difference between bork's approach and yours was *my* dumb argument, not Nachos.

[sangres]

- The "dumb" argument about the difference between bork's approach and yours was *my* dumb argument, not Nachos.

OK. That just makes me feel stronger that you're piggy-backing Nacho's push in an unnatural way because that actually makes no sense.

-Nati

Like I piggy-backed your Mastin push in S&S?

By the time I made that post, my pie-read was getting pretty solid. What wasn't solid yet (and still isn't) was my read on you.

[sangres]

What does this even mean?

My point being that I took a leap of faith based on having a strong town read on you (which was correct) and your known ability to read Mastin with an insane level of accuracy.

Why would you expect me to put less stock in my hydra partner, who shares my role pm, with a known ability to read you and Pie with great accuracy?

[sangres]

You're not putting stock in it. You've suggested you have independent reasons to think I'm scum that are different from nacho's. And those reasons look less like things you concluded based on natural thoughts about me and more like things you're making up after nacho decided to call me scum.

I can see that interpretation of my posts, actually. I didn't have a comfortable read of you on my own, and was trying to figure out what it was that Nacho saw in your posts that led him to vote you.

[sangres]

[sangres]

I suspect it was just browser refreshes but I swear to god if I have to worry about that kind of profile-scanning crap I'll make our online status invisible in future games.

I blame Tammy for this alt slip.

[sangres]

molla explained t

Ffery:

What was this about and what did you learn? You pretty much dropped it/didn't go anywhere with it.

Stuff during pregame that caught my eye.

- bbmolla's one post. he usually reaches out to Tammy if she's in the game. Didn't happen.

molla explained that he didn't notice you were in the game because he didn't recognize the hydra. he says he did reach out to you after he noticed you later.

Which he kinda did. So I can't take it much further. Also, I've liked some of his later posting.

[sangres]

I suspect it was just browser refreshes but I swear to god if I have to worry about that kind of profile-scanning crap I'll make our online status invisible in future games.

I blame Tammy for this alt slip.

Um. Why not just say you were probably refreshing the page? I

I don't get the "ohmigods how dare you notice I was online." If you don't want it noticed, make it private.

I didn't say anything about it earlier in case you were masons ^_^ with someone. I won't say how long I continued to hold that possible theory even knowing the setup.

because I probably wasn't refreshing the page? I usually watch for new posts on my main account and switch to this browser when I want to make a post, unless a game is moving really fast. Most likely it happened when I launched the browser and restored previous session because I have a set of tabs I usually want open. Which I do sometimes 2 or 3 times a day.

I don't care about noticing it. I just dislike profile-watching on principle. It was driven home yet again that profile-watching/last-online info can be horribly misused in lieu of actual scumhunting in a recent newbie game I replaced into.

[sangres]

We've talked a fair bit about the serum and steel game. She replaced into a scum slot in that game. The game was multiball, so scum were actually able to genuinely scumhunt, which was just that little bit needed to pass for town, but there were issues with her play. One of the big ones was how awful her tunnel on Ceph's alt Chandra was.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=58358e

[sangres]

molla explained t

Ffery:

What was this about and what did you learn? You pretty much dropped it/didn't go anywhere with it.

Stuff during pregame that caught my eye.

- bbmolla's one post. he usually reaches out to Tammy if she's in the game. Didn't happen.

molla explained that he didn't notice you were in the game because he didn't recognize the hydra. he says he did reach out to you after he noticed you later.

Which he kinda did. So I can't take it much further. Also, I've liked some of his later posting.

Yes, he said hi to me after I said hi to him by reposting your question, but you also asked about me and not reaching out but you didn't follow up.

Because it's not a question I can really answer - at least not with the authority that Molla can - and because I was more concerned about Molla than about you at that point. If he had come back with something like "yeah, that is a little odd of Tammy", then something useful for reading in your interactions might have happened.

I set up exchanges like this fairly frequently, and they don't always lead anywhere I find particularly useful. Sometimes they do.

You're just going to have to get over the fact that I'm townreading bork and I'm not poking at you guys much as a result. After some flips that could change, but I'm more or less happy with you guys atm.

[sangres]

molla explained t

Ffery:

What was this about and what did you learn? You pretty much dropped it/didn't go anywhere with it.

Stuff during pregame that caught my eye.

- bbmolla's one post. he usually reaches out to Tammy if she's in the game. Didn't happen.

molla explained that he didn't notice you were in the game because he didn't recognize the hydra. he says he did reach out to you after he noticed you later.

Which he kinda did. So I can't take it much further. Also, I've liked some of his later posting.

Yes, he said hi to me after I said hi to him by reposting your question, but you also asked about me and not reaching out but you didn't follow up.

Because it's not a question I can really answer - at least not with the authority that Molla can - and because I was more concerned about Molla than about you at that point. If he had come back with something like "yeah, that is a little odd of Tammy", then something useful for reading in your interactions might have happened.

I set up exchanges like this fairly frequently, and they don't always lead anywhere I find particularly useful. Sometimes they do.

You're just going to have to get over the fact that I'm townreading bork and I'm not poking at you guys much as a result. After some flips that could change, but I'm more or less happy with you guys atm.

Hmm

Why would I not like you guys townreading us?

I dunno? You're the one who pointed out that I hadn't followed up on my post about you not interacting with molla right away.

That has nothing to do with why this caught my eye.

As soon as you posed the question about me, when I posted bucket, I told Bork that I couldn't figure out if you were trying to get reads or stir up stuff. It seemed premature to me to wonder about that kind of thing and I thought you could be trying to recreate the valid concern about falcon not really interacting with me in serum and steel.

Bb and I do usually interact in games, but it's hardly ever right at the very start in a game we both start in. It's almost always when at least one of us has a foot in the game and if town happens in a really organic way. Often one of us will feel lost or get paranoid of the other so push there or joke if we're in rvs at the same time or sometimes hell reaction test me.

If he had posted anything to me at the point you wondered about it, I'd have probably thought he was scum.

most (maybe all) of the games I've played with both you and molla, he replaced into the game and you guys interacted very shortly thereafter if not immediately, iirc. I didn't know that your interactions are different when you both are in the game from the start.

[sangres]

yoyoyo

Guess who's here finally after computer breakable and work?

have you and zmuffin been able to talk about your reads yet?

[sangres]

In some ways this game feels stalled.

Although Soft-spoken was wrong about the scum team playing for individual survival, the setup and mechanics do work to modify behavior.

[sangres]

Every time I interact with zmuffin I start to doubt the read. Then I go back and look at the convo nacho and I had a couple days ago about what he expects from scum zmuffin and town zmuffin as this game day progresses.

There's not a lot of difference. It's subtle.

There's a difference I expect which isn't all that subtle. I'm not going to say what it is. And I could be completely wrong about what to look for.

I guess what I'm saying is that for me this is still a read in progress. I have never managed to maintain a scumread on zmuffin when he's been scum so I'm very nervous about bending or softening my read right now. The bar is very high.

The worst cases I imagine from here are nightmare scenarios that I don't want to dwell on right now.

[sangres]

Every time I interact with zmuffin I start to doubt the read.

"the" read? what read?

-b

:/

In trying to answer this, I'm finding myself rambling. Basically, I don't know much more about Nacho's reasons than you or anyone else besides Nacho himself. he thinks RBD is scum, and sort of like I would do if any player I respected came out with scumread out of the blue, I have been looking for why - what triggered the read, and looking at their play really hard for things that might be scum-indicative. I'm looking harder than I otherwise would at this point if I were playing strictly within my own head. And I've thrown into the thread those things that I've independently found questionable.

I don't know how to do this, and I want to just back off and let nacho lead this discussion because ultimately we're voting the way we're voting because nacho has a strong scumread and a lot of concern that zmuffin could easily slip by if he's not sorted.

I don't think this answers your question. I'm still working on my own questions and answers.

as in "what in specific are you doubting"?

-b

as in, over the last 24-48 hours zmuffin's questions to us and posts about us give me some vague town glimmers. The thing that especially hit home was his comment about piggy-backing. Maybe this is something that's been obvious to other players, and maybe some of the doubt about us springs from the way my read formed - in catch-up mode trying to adapt to a gamestate where nacho was scumreading zmuffin and I didn't understand why.

But, it's zmuffin that actually articulated it and pinpointed what has felt strange to me about my own stance - I've been presented with a fact - Nacho scumreads zmuffin, and rather than form my own read I've been trying to reconstruct and confirm Nacho's read.

So, to me his comment was extremely perceptive and I want to call that kind of perceptivity town, because it's not shallow. But...zmuffin is terrifyingly good at scum and maybe I'm letting my guard down too easily.

[sangres]

ffery in what ways do you think you piggy-backing Nacho's scum read on muffin is similar to the ways you piggy-backed muffin's read on mastin in serum and steel?

I get holding onto meta stuff, I really do, but RBD is an actual on the table lynch possibility. I really really don't think that holding your reads/cards to your chest is viable in this situation.

The similarity are that I subsumed my own nascent read and followed zmuffin's. The differences are that my read on mastin was better formed when I dropped it to vote her, and I didn't have any obligation to explain or defend the read. I was blatantly and vocally sheeping another player I thought (correctly) was town and knew had a phenomenal track record reading mastin.

I can't sheep my own slot.

And right now, I think it's almost a coin toss as to whether zmuffin is lynched or we are. That's one path - cut the Gordian knot our interactions have created. The other path probably leads to Yuriko if she doesn't put some serious town-looking effort into the game soon.

[sangres]

Because ffery is so sweet and logical and talks with words that don't trigger my ADD! There might be some inherent bias in here due to being friends with her, and the way I sort Nacho always is 'wait til late in the game', but I don't really see the manipulation this game or the little excuses.

In tales of you when you reached out to me and handed me the Song Contest Mafia card for payment due, it was almost like a physical hand-clasp it was so real, so immediate and I could feel your certainty that I'd know - right then - what to do.

There's nothing tangible and really, really town-nati to town-ffery in our conversations so far.

[sangres]

I know that you are capable of convincing me beyond doubt, beyond fake claims, beyond setup scenarios that you're town.

It doesn't feel like you're trying to do that.

If you're town, this is a terrible terrible misread we have going, and it leads down a terrible terrible path for town.

[sangres]

I wish Nacho were here tonight.

[sangres]

Rancid was pretty damn good in that mini normal I modded, too.

I'm sorry I'm demanding so much from you.

[sangres]

Tammy, when are you going to interact with me?

[sangres]

Unvote

[sangres]

What are your reads on them individually?

I had S-S town based on the town slip and his other posts around that time. the Quil interaction strengthened it.

Quil is one of the few ppl in this game I don't have some form of town read on. however, outside of the S-S push, I haven't found anything he's done so far scummy. you?

I have a form of a town read on Quilford because I like how he carries himself this game. I didn't really find his push scummy/have a particularly strong opinion about his side of the interactions when I first read, so going back over them now.

[sangres]

Pieguyn, have you read Mafia on the Metro? It was brought up at the end of Twin Trap or some dumb shit and I think it does a good job of establishing a pretty decent scum baseline for Quilford. Read that, tell me if your opinion on the push changes at all.

[sangres]

I think you stating that you're pushing him because you can see how the stance he took would be beneficial to scum is very harsh (Especially since this logic could be in turn applied to your push on him being very beneficial as scum) and ignores how it all transpired?

It is very harsh, that's completely the point. I don't see why the logic being able to be applied to my push matters. I didn't ignore how it all transpired: I understand the argument hadn't happened yet, but it didn't really take too much perception to realize that it was coming. I don't know what else I'm ignoring.

[sangres]

want those three questions answered when you get a laptop.

Three questions? I did a brief skim and couldn't find them

[sangres]

The solving-the-game part, I guess. So uh. Everything? What have you actually done as of this post? I don't even think you have a scum read outside of me.

The scumteam I was operating with earlier was you-Yuriko. I still think Yuriko is scum, but I'm not at all interested in pushing her today.

[sangres]

I didn't need to do anything as scum there if an argument was inevitably going to break out (I could have, for example, just refrained from commenting on it, which is probably what I would have done if I actually were scum - at least until an argument was actually happening) - nothing I said there could have possibly influenced anyone's opinion on that post.

Good point.

I disagree with you that there weren't sides to take at that point. I don't think Pie's 122 was universally town, I think it was town for people who know pie and definitely wouldn't expect Empire/Regfan to recognize why it was town during a knee-jerk reaction.

I also want to clarify that your push would be advantageous for scum not because you'd be reinforcing a bad read on Regfan, but because of the effect it would have on pieguy.

[sangres]

I sincerely doubt bbMolla is scum. I don't think he's a good enough player to say some of the things he's said in this game in the manner he's said them as scum. In particular, the string of posts that started at #200 is a big part of where my town read on him comes from. If Yuriko is scum, this is even more the case. I think his play in general looks pretty unreserved and a lot of his posts have clicked with me.

this read resonates pretty strongly with me

[sangres]

I would feel better about him if I'd liked any of the pushes he's done this game but uh... outside the gentlemen push and some issue he brought up with me, I don't actually think he's made any pushes.

Two things that I feel weird about wrt pieguy were his interactions with me and the way he's approaching Quilford-Softspoken (especially the weird half push on Quilford). I don't think Quilford's reasons for pushing S-S were particularly strong, sure, but they did feel genuine most of the way through.

[sangres]

What it looks like to me is Nacho going "hey, I'm gonna push muffin" and her going "OK, I'll support you if I see an opportunity..." or something along those lines. Which would explained the half-assed meta argument and the angle she's pushing with regards to my reaction to pieguy v you compared to bork's (where one happened before it was actually a thing and the other happened after...)

You're absolutely correct that Ffery's support of me is forced; I have a strong scum read on someone for reasons that are not incredibly compelling, she doesn't. She does see the use in hard-pushing a player like you out of the gate, and she agrees with the sentiment behind the push, and so she supports. The difference between her supporting here and her supporting scum-me's push is that she lets how uncomfortable she is leak into thread pretty obviously, whereas if she was scum she would be uncomfortable because she doesn't like being scum and then suck it up.

[sangres]

Pieguyn reading that and coming to the realization just felt like the right thing at the right time and I don't think she'd have backed off at this point if scum (she'd have probably done it earlier or not at all).

This seems... arbitrary.

[sangres]

Nacho - what, in this post, was muffin supposed to town read pieguy for? And why is it not likely for him to think it's an overreaction and scummy, especially considering he was concerned about pieguy before this post?

my initial thoughts re: that push was that it was a strange line in the sand (and a horribly horribly horribly horribly early one) for pieguy to draw. when you make a push like that as scum, you're putting all of your eggs, all of your hopes and dreams, into a basket. when you push a player like that as scum, they will scum read you pretty much every time, and it's very very hard to make that suspicion go away after you make a push like that, especially after you give up your power after being inevitably forced to town read the slot. these risks are compounded exponentially with the setup. if you do successfully mislynch them by some stupid, stupid, miracle they are still alive forever to fuck you over. if you get them to give you a little space, fucking sucks for you because can't kill them the first night and killing them in the second is a massive waste. I didn't think pieguy would be willing to take a massive risk as scum so early.

[sangres]

Do you not see anything town in muffin?

sure I saw town things in muffin
I just happened to see more town things in everyone else

[sangres]

I think I'm perfectly capable of reaching out to someone as scum, and I think you know that's within my range as scum. I think there are some better reasons and some other better but more subtle that pointed to us being town at that point.

I'll admit I didn't put much effort into reading your slot when I made that post, wasn't really worried about he two of you at that point in time since Bork looked town enough.

I also didn't read you as town because it was unfakeable or anything, just liked it. Was enjoyable.

[sangres]

I swear to fuck Nacho, if you're buddying me right now I'm personally driving all the way to Chicago and punching you in the face. fortunately, I think you're just town.

I almost wish I was scum right now just so I could thoroughly enjoy watching as Regfan expends all his effort trying to lynch me and fails. ~

This post sounded kinda town.

I'm not sure she's this cheeky as scum.

(Though my scum dream team wonders if they're scum buddying each other. I don't really believe this, but it's crossed my mind.)

the specific aside to Regfan was good, yeah

[sangres]

Can you summarize your read on RBD right now after all the interaction you guys have had in the past few days

town

[sangres]

Vote: Pieguyn

[sangres]

that's not three questions, I'm immensely dissatisfied
with your response

[sangres]

I'm really sad for what you and your family are going through, Pie. I hope you'll feel like continuing to play this game, but do what you need to do for your own well being. If mafia isn't a welcome distraction from what's going on, you don't need mafia in your life right now.

[sangres]

thanks. (((Nacho)))

I still want to at least try to give it a shot if I can bc I love this player list, just saying that if I still can't do shit ~2 days from now I'll just replace out.

that wasn't Nacho!

[sangres]

If I had to armchair meta pie here compared to the game that just ended, I would call that game "significantly deviant from what I am seeing this game".

I don't really trust my ability to meta in general and I can't really point to a time that it has really saved my play in a game where I couldn't find in-game things to talk about.

But for those who are wont to use meta as their first line of investigation (hi ffery) I would really like a "yes I agree / no I don't" from that, especially considering you were in the game.
-b

I don't think that the game feels like this one. but she was in the enviable position of being a universal town read for most of the game. I was *just* coming around to a point where I was going to set aside all those townreads and try to reread the game with an open mind about the possibility of pie and doduo being scum. Was too little, and way too late.

In this game she's been on the back foot since her posts in pregame, and as scum she'd have to play differently here vs there because of that.

I'm not quite sure where Nacho is coming from, though I *think* it could be consideration of tammy's concerns about pie making sense. The other thing, and it's a fairly important one, is how we feel about other players (e.g., the number of townreads in a nine player game).

I tend to dismiss the fuck out of players' views of the gamestate when they are misreading me when I think they shouldn't be. Nacho doesn't. Tammy's nightmare scumteams all feature us, which given my borkread puts Tammy in the hilariously wrong category rather than the potentially scum category. It's a weakness in my game that I feel that way, but it's a weakness that tends to self correct as the game progresses.

[sangres]

btw - directed at anyone who's thinking about going there: don't EVEN expect me to explain nacho's vote this time before he's explained it himself.

[sangres]

[sangres]

Unvote

the easy thing to answer is that I voted pie because I was tired as shit and paranoia fit

[sangres]

I don't want to lynch Yuriko because there are scum in the other 8 players

[sangres]

I don't want to lynch Yuriko because there are scum in the other 8 players

And I think it's very very important we get real flips now for the sake of the game, and I also think it's important we wait to lynch the Yuriko a lot until it's blatantly obvious that it's not going to get replaced. If we mislynch Yuriko now, that's a big win for scum (my #1 priority if I were scum with not-Yuriko would be getting Yuriko lynched). If we hit scum with Yuriko, game state doesn't actually change that much since no one dies except the person not doing anything.

[sangres]

Vote: Quilford