Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Cephrir]

VOTE: invisibility

in case i can't find her later

[Cephrir]

andante seems a bit like an exaggerated version of andante right now but idk

[Cephrir]

sorry I'm just like, people saying I'm town and meta in the same sentence? I'm calling it out cause you can literally find any kind of game from me to prove whatever "meta" you're trying to prove.. plus I'm like obviously town here so... no free passes to tr me!

i started mentally trying to meta this statement and then i realized how stupid that is.

i think sheep is town.

[Cephrir]

bluh this game is getting serious too fast which i have recently learned is a trait of games i don't get invested in

VOTE: drew why not

[Cephrir]

vla thru 29th

may check in

[Cephrir]

i should stop checking this thread from vla im not absorbing anything.

[Cephrir]

i think i will simply not read the first 15 pages

the rest...
don't super want to kill andante right now
didn't like drew rolefishing. baffled by his sub out.
aisa... might be town???
this game is pretty dense/boring. i hate that my boredom is a self fulfilling prophecy (if i'm bored i will not play well enough to be nightkilled)
cat scratch fever probably town
dunnstral has good vibes. i feel not very confident about reading him in general tho

VOTE: enchant

[Cephrir]

it's not every game

[Cephrir]

i guess sometimes it is just that easy

[Cephrir]

By the way why i am suddenly on edge.

You asked me to do something

I found person i scumread and voted them


If you wanted me to sheep your opinions, then why don't say so

Seemed more like you were personally irritated by implosion than actually thinking he is scum in this game.

[Cephrir]

And also they aren't doing nothing. Dunn had interesting comments on Alianna's reads list. Woo was doing nothing for a while, got prodded, and is now doing things. Not a ton of things, granted, but 407 is content, and many other posts are also game-relevant. Enchant's ISO has no actual content. Read it. It could have content if Enchant plays the game, but Not Playing the Game in the way Enchant is doing right now, is Enchant's scum meta.

this is accurate

[Cephrir]

"This is accurate"

Interesting position for person who votes me every game.

This is not accurate

Got anything other than discredits?

[Cephrir]

Enchant how do you feel about Andante

you phrase this like enchant and I are the only 2 options for a lim here

like, you know I’m not getting touched here… but “heyyy enchant!! give your thoughts on this person who isn’t getting limmed… might still lim you, but doesn’t matter what you say”

VOTE: Invisibility

What????????

Invisibility asked a completely normal ass question where did you get this from

Main issue that while there provided "Evidence" that my town meta that scum meta that.

I don't have meta. Even if i did, you only provided game which proved YOUR point to condemn me. You was in games where opposite also happened yet you decided to delete them from your memories because they ruin your point.

enchant knows implosion/me are town & not being disingenuous

[Cephrir]

I mean, wouldn't you want my vote to go towards limming your sr? cause it doesn't seem like people are really agreeing anywhere

That’s an odd thing to say when enchant is at e-2 with no competing wagon

well enchant is town, and I haven't seen a solid case in favor of enchant!scum so sorry to say it, but that wagon just seems like a joke wagon to me.. "oh haha enchant is an easy lim!!"

try reading then? :/

[Cephrir]

try reading then? :/

yeah I'll get right on it... my past 4 days have been: opening, closing,opening,opening... and today was mostly spent packing... I'm trying my best, and saying what I think based on what I see... shouldn't be an issue...

ok. well like, there's definitely been a case, you can disagree with it but it objectively exists

[Cephrir]

i'm not really sure what i just read

[Cephrir]

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

def want an explanation from menalque tho

[Cephrir]

Oh no this game didn't spontaneously evaporate? Damn

[Cephrir]

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

I am indifferent

[Cephrir]

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

It was a case that already existed for me as I held the same opinion about enchant's meta. There was another game where STD made a similar case and was correct, so I thought it was valid. Enchant solidified that by continuing to fuck around and give up, and I thought his pushback on implosion looked fake.

[Cephrir]

I feel like he was one of the sketchier votes on wagon + don't have any sort of read there

I... feel like you didn't read my posts then?

VOTE: skitter?

[Cephrir]

I had very real conviction and clearly explained my reasoning. If you think that reasoning was poor tell me why, but I'm not letting you handwave it as sketchy.

[Cephrir]

it's not every game

i guess sometimes it is just that easy

"This is accurate"

Interesting position for person who votes me every game.

This is not accurate

Got anything other than discredits?

try reading then? :/

yeah I'll get right on it... my past 4 days have been: opening, closing,opening,opening... and today was mostly spent packing... I'm trying my best, and saying what I think based on what I see... shouldn't be an issue...

ok. well like, there's definitely been a case, you can disagree with it but it objectively exists

Not sure why you omitted these relevant posts

Why would I reassess something I find myself agreeing with harder and harder over time. I wasn't even actively in the game long enough to have time to reassess anyway, but I wouldn't have.

I don't know how you can criticize my post about enchant openwolfong without realizing it demonstrates conviction

The only way I could have led the wagon is if I had a time machine to make implosion's case before he did

You are setting impossible and unreasonable bars here. I'm not sure why you want to scumread me here so bad but the reach is real.

[Cephrir]

Agreeing with someone is scummy and can't demonstrate true belief apparently

I have now explained why I agreed. Do you need receipts from the other game I'm referring to?

[Cephrir]

I feel enchant actually plays when theyre town and trolls when they're scum

gonna test std's theory

nqn2- enchant scum in multiball- mostly trolling with a little effort here and there
open 867- i correctly guessed enchant as town after reading ~10 posts
large normal 241- correctly guessed town after 28 posts
ln 242- i got cocky and incorrectly guessed town after 10 posts. after reading a bunch more though this seems to legit not support std's point
micro 1063- guessed town and he was 3p so i'm just gonna ignore this one
micro 1061- accidentally saw he was town here before reading but i would characterize this as effort
open 866- at first i thought this was scum but then he obvtowned incredibly hard so i got there
open 863- obvtown
open 862- guessed town correctly
open 860- obvtown

where aree the scumgames dang it

scum games

mini theme 2263- mostly trolling
mini 2265- entirely trolling
2266- starts out trolling but eventually tries. i would have guessed this was town
o859- entirely trolling

mods who don't update the first post make me grumpy

VOTE: enchant

[Cephrir]

I have already done the research to support implosion's theory. I did not feel the need to perform it for you again

[Cephrir]

i don't think those posts demonstrate 'conviction'
unless we're like using the word differently

what does 'conviction' mean to u here
(also i don't this is a reach at all but ok)

Genuine belief

[Cephrir]

Those posts are relevant because enchant's attempts to discredit me made me more certain he was scum

[Cephrir]

And honestly? The next time I see someone omgus their main detractor for no clear reason and discredit their secondary detractor with verifiable lies, I'm gonna lim them again

[Cephrir]

now that i've gone back to the other game i see that the bulk of the work was done by me, as you can see above, if that does anything for you

i was enchant's partner in that game, but i believed i was making valid points

i think you're usually good at mafia and the fact you can't find me as town right now makes me think that you are scum, regardless of what words you want to attach to that. i just don't buy that that is where town you wants to vote right now end of sentence

[Cephrir]

even if before wasn't doing it for you i'm currently bleeding green all over the nice carpeting. it's pretty gross honestly someone should clean it up

[Cephrir]

objectively and i think you're good enough to see it

i am not going to quote posts to back that up i am simply feeling a righteous indignation that i can't feel as scum

[Cephrir]

it sucks that i'm probably going to have to get your partners first

[Cephrir]

after reviewing a recent csf scum game to see if my paradigm for reading her is still valid, it wasn't as valid as i thought, but i still see differences between that and this. still townreading, not as strong

[Cephrir]

i think you're usually good at mafia and the fact you can't find me as town right now makes me think that you are scum, regardless of what words you want to attach to that. i just don't buy that that is where town you wants to vote right now end of sentence

like i don't think you have any reason / history / anything to actually think this

you're not bleeding green rn (no matter how much you'd like to say that)

i've only played with you a few times but you've been a strong town presence in those games and other players' respect towards you clearly demonstrated that this impression was typical. as a result i respect your abilities. sorry bout it

[Cephrir]

yeah this is absolutely what a town cephrir meltdown looks like, i do get to be the authority on this

[Cephrir]

ok that's a different point than being able to townread you, which is what you were saying before

i think im objectively town right now and because i think you are a good player im less willing to excuse it than i might be otherwise

maybe that was unclear, i didnt think it was

[Cephrir]

i think andante subbing out is a towntell - shows she was likely genuinely frustrated with us

[Cephrir]

you telling me you are isn't going to change my mind

my iso should have already done that. shrug emoji

[Cephrir]

before doing this iso my thoughts were "i don't have strong feelings about this player, but i've seen a lot of scumreads on her - so it's weird that no one is doing much about it"

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

this stuff felt slightly wolf to me at surface level.

"I won't complain about it too much" just feels like a wolf perspective in a way that I could see alianna slipping up. either about some correct townreads or wanting to get townread herself for an active start

the idea of town complaining about some page 2 reads just doesnt make sense to me, even if u disagree with the reads.

what I would expect town to do is like, evaluate implosion's alignment based on that

, which doesn't happen;

this post also assumes implosion town in a +0.05% wolf way

idk ive been back and forth on this

How am I supposed to evaluate someone's alignment off "X and Y are towny" with no reasoning? There really wasn't much to sort in the post. Even though I had a guess about the reasoning, I didn't find it AI. I just disagreed with it.

How does it do that?

i think the pink response is scum indicative. it shows an overconcern with her own self perception to even bother with - "0.05% scum" means it's not a strong point and probably can't even be explained - just let this go unless your goal is discrediting

fair I gues. Why are you still voting Doctor Drew?

Sorry, got distracted by something IRL. I just forgot to take off my RVS.

UNVOTE:

i don't think i need to explain why i think this is scummy

You know what, sure. I see what you mean.

VOTE: GuerillaWoo

looking for someone who's *actually* hiding behind others' reasoning?

Reads are approximately this. They're relative to a scale, not to each other, and I went the other way around the colour wheel because (a) it's prettier and (b) my scumleans are usually orange. You can ask about my reasoning, but the response is going to be either "idk vibes lol" or "I already talked about that one."

{

Alianna

} - I townread Alianna.
{

Andante

}
{

Aisa, Invisibility, Cat Scratch Fever

}
{

sheepsaysmeep

}
{

Doctor Drew, implosion

}
{

Dunnstral, Cephrir, Menalque, skitter30

} - the null line
{

GuerillaWoo

}

So we have a problem. One person is sus and there's 2-4 bad guys in the game.

Kind of makes me think there's scum in the quiet people.
Or my scumdar's just broken.
Still like the Woo wagon for now, just think the null tier is worth looking into.

as has been pointed out by dunnstral this shows a lack of paranoia

So we have a problem. One person is sus and there's 2-4 bad guys in the game.

If you're town your problem is that you will townread everyone for light banter and giving the bare minimum of content. You are not being skeptical enough.

Could be. I'll consider that.

i don't see any evidence of this being considered

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

looking for someone who's *actually* hiding behind others' reasoning?

And seconded about the pushback on implo, forgot about that.

looking for someone who's *actually* hiding behind others' reasoning?

[Cephrir]

i may or may not have had thoughts abt that but we're not supposed to talk abt rep-outs now i believe so kinda glossed over that

pedit ok i like the vote for now then

my understanding was that you're not supposed to talk about them before they happen but they're fair game to discuss after, i apologize if that's me misunderstanding the rules

[Cephrir]

do not tell other players to replace out. Do not publicly consider or publicly announce a choice to replace out.

i think it's just this

[Cephrir]

want to look at sheep/woo/dunn/aisa eventually

not interested in menalque

[Cephrir]

Do you disagree with her framing of the game as "I'd be surprised if there are 0 scum on the wagon" and looking at those slots?

It's not really relevant, but I do think that conclusion is too hasty

Do you disagree with her for wanting to look at you before Alianna, sheep, or me, given that sheep and I have been I think pretty broadly townread this game?

having just reviewed alianna, yes, i think she's a hell of a lot more suspicious than me

You've been spending 3/4 of the game saying you've had a hard time getting into it and no one has really pressured you up to this point. How should skitter magically be finding you as town??? At least, how should she have already done it a page ago?

oh, probably by reading my posts and observing the genuineness and town motivation in them or something, who can say

[Cephrir]

i mean objectively i have a town role pm so anything i post is town motivated

[Cephrir]

what specifically leads you to the conclusion that there must be scum on the wagon other than probability (since that is half the game)

is there some way in which someone who was pushing andante instead, if she is town, is somehow better

[Cephrir]

of course it's likely -- that's just math

what i want to know is how focusing there is anything more than an arbitrary distinction

do you believe that all wagons that go through on town necessarily contain scum votes?

that's not how i play mafia. if there is a voter that specifically looks scummy (see: alianna), great! but i want to know why you're starting from an assumption.

i'm saying that i think most players who are active and weren't on enchant were persuing andante instead. i currently believe she is town, so i'm not assigning anyone credit for doing that instead of voting enchant

[Cephrir]

i don't think that answers my question on why it's different from an arbitrary discintion. why do you believe there was at least one scum on wagon

[Cephrir]

b/c i think 0 is unlikely

...why though... am i speaking a different language or something

[Cephrir]

not feeling a need to review sheep anymore

[Cephrir]

if there's statistically a wolf in a group of 4 people (which your'e conceding), i think that's easier than finding 2 in a pool of 8

Okay, so it is an arbitrary distinction.

i'm not saying there's 2+ i'm saying i'm thinking htere's at least 1

(also fwiw arguing that there isn't when you're on it is +w to me)

I am explicitly not arguing this, as you already noted in this post. I'm trying to understand your thought process.

pedit b/c in the four billion games of mafia i've played, i've seen a lot more day1 wagons with wolves on them than day1 wagons with no wolves on them

Again, that's math, not scumhunting

[Cephrir]

yeah i greatly disagree with the approach in a mafia theory way but it's not scummy

[Cephrir]

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

I find this compelling.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Delta

[Cephrir]

I think dunn saying like, "all the mafia wouldnt want to be on the same side, some on-wagon some off-wagon" was the best it's been presented and the first time I was like meh I get it

I do feel like most players know this is a popular perception and would consider doing the opposite for that reason

[Cephrir]

[...]

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

This was the post I disliked out of all of them, so

VOTE: Alianna

Today's your lucky day, I guess.
[...]

Hello!

I've seen a few people criticising that specific Alianna post and I also didn't love it, but she was on V/LA due to illness at the time. I think it would be very sus otherwise, but here I think it's difficult to make much of that post. Also fyi later on she gives a brief explanation for the vote.

Hmm that is kinda awkward yeah

Also I am finding it kinda weird that both Dunn and Ceph decided to follow me when I've practically only just got here.

Still, I wanna see if Delta has any thoughts from catching up before I consider moving elsewhere.

I'm not following you, I already talked about why I think that slot is scum and my other suspects don't seem to be as popular

[Cephrir]

Seeking a replacement for Deltabreedy.

Kill this immediately

[Cephrir]

hi fire! im glad to see you're still around. unfortunately you have replaced scum and i'm not going to allow your storied charisma to shake me off

[Cephrir]

i do recall this thing

i became persuaded while doing it - there's just, no organic scumhunting coming from her that i can see

that said now that im looking at it again i do realize that i've become more set on this than my case actually warrants

[Cephrir]

the double sub out does not help

[Cephrir]

she's still on my radar so, kinda

[Cephrir]

here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die

{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}


i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow

[Cephrir]

maybe bump egix down one. my reason for townreading csf didn't pan out

[Cephrir]

yeah i thought it wasn't super likely to come from someone who knows enchant is going to flip town

[Cephrir]

good to know. i haven't seen it much

[Cephrir]

I won't care

[Cephrir]

As gotcha attempts go that one is a 1/10

[Cephrir]

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

Because one of them did it while under heavy suspicion and the other is obviously town

[Cephrir]

I kind of see why Menalque immediately responds that way to fire's 1203 beyond just the post calling Menalque out. It feels like a very overwrought thought process. Like this assertion that Menalque must have had the whole spiel planned out from before the woo vote as town when like, part of what he was doing was asking questions.

like fire, you're saying "I don't find his reads progression believable, it doesn't seem like he genuinely had this planned since before the woo vote and all he does is ask a bunch of questions then give this big reveal" and like. yeah... the point of questions is to change your mind? I think at least part of this is me misinterpreting something but this whole post from fire just feels like either scum having a conclusion that they think they can justify and wanting to justify it, or possibly town who got a gut scumread on Menalque from reading and is now trying to back-justify why that scumread makes sense in the context of his progression without having really thought much about it before typing the words out because the read actually came from gut. And it doesn't sound like that's what fire

thinks

the read is. This probably doesn't make any sense though so alas

this seems to ignore menalque's multiple posts about having something cooking? or am i misunderstanding?

[Cephrir]

i read most of those posts. someone else can just tell me if mena's huge wall was a good post i guess, i don't plan on reading it

[Cephrir]

I'm getting somewhat alarmed by the push here by some of the same people who were pushing Enchant for easy reasons also pushing fire for a silly easy reason.

Go on

About...? The easy reason is the slot repeatedly getting replaced. Ceph and implosion in particular seemed to take issue there.

This stuff with Mena is much better from what I've seen, but I gotta get back to focus on work, no OT for me today.

I was wondering who you took issue with and what the silly easy reason is. I see 1 person who commented on the double replacement thing (cephrir) and you took that and ran with it and are trying to paint the picture that the only reason they are being voted is because of that.

and even for me it's just a fun little side point

[Cephrir]

I don't hate these thoughts. I'm not sure what if anything to do about that. Right now I need to go to sleep

[Cephrir]

Ouch

I'm here I'm following I kind of think skitter could be scum but I'm not fully convinced fire isn't

Game is dense and hard to care about again

[Cephrir]

Ouch

I'm here I'm following I kind of think skitter could be scum but I'm not fully convinced fire isn't

Game is dense and hard to care about again

Hi, can you elaborate a bit abt where you're holding on fire?

im voting for him what more do you want

I go back and forth on ceph as lazy scum and lazy town

Like he pretty much always can be scum here and maybe he’s just cleverly playing on being null

But even if that is what he’s doing it’s kinda working because I wanna kill the players I think are being actively scummy first before I would kill him due to the fact he could be town who can’t get into the game and/or is just being lazy with it

i wouldn't do this on purpose fwiw. regardless of my alignment i simply do not like this game

[Cephrir]

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

Also i actually think sheep looks worse here than fire

what if we killed sheep or aureal instead UNVOTE:

I think a lot of why fire is looking town is because he’s just been active since joining and I think that’s a very bad metric for solving him

I don’t think he’s done anything really clearing and I think that his entrance was concerning enough to be killable + somehow everyone is forgetting that neither delta nor alianna did a good job of showing the slot was town

cephrirage farm remembers

[Cephrir]

skimmed sheep iso to figure out why i was townreading him earlier. still not sure

i liked his one post about aisa and the fact he's not shoving me in a null bin or worse (i have to imagine scum salivating over mislimming me later here)

that's it tho

[Cephrir]

@merlyn thoughts on switching to sheep or aureal? i might just vote whatever you want right now bc i think you're town and i am so checked out

[Cephrir]

ah, good, more long posts

[Cephrir]

ah, good, more long posts

hi im sorry

whats your feeling about the idea of limming skitter

I feel like u wolfread them but now seem reluctant about that wagon

i didn't like her daystart today obviously

i have been skimming so aggressively since then... so i dont feel like i know what's happening or why. so im really just asking myself whether i can let go of my alianna scumread when that's more real for me than the last 20 pages.

which is why i just want to outsource my vote to someone i trust right now

[Cephrir]

@sheep- I see your request for a read, I will say that you are NOT my number one townread lol so I'm glad you reflected on that. I'm not sure who my number one townread is, or if I have one yet.

Leaning town:
Ceph, Mena, Firebringer, Egix, sheep

Haven't gotten a read on:
Implo
Aureal
Aisa


Leaning scum:
dunn, skitter

Coming in when the deadline is looming, I've been focusing more on who I think is limmable scum than town.

@Ceph- I could see Aureal as scum, but my main feelings on that are meta (bc I've played twice with her as town and she wasn't as active) and I don't think that's a good enough reason to yeet someone. I do think this is a slot that should be looked into in more depth.

My ultimate feeling though is along these lines:

One advantage of flipping in {fire, skitter} is that we will definitely resolve one of them, lol. I worry that if we flip someone else we’ll just end up having collective paranoia over those two slots again tomorrow.

unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

Unless anyone is feeling strongly that fire and skitter are both town, we need to vote along these lines. Skitter has already claimed, let's be really careful of not having any more claims than nesscessary. I don't think I have the dunn votes or they'd be happening, so I'll UNVOTE: Dunn and VOTE: skitter.

As it is written, so shall it be

VOTE: skitter

[Cephrir]

Who what huh? I thought you were talking about Ceph, the person who started the push on skitter and made sure the day ended there?

Wow that's really far away from being a thing that happened

[Cephrir]

You didn't start the day off by calling skitter scum for voting you and suddenly pop in to end the day hammering her?

This isn't what your post says, and no I did not suddenly pop in I made it perfectly clear I was letting merlyn use my vote.

[Cephrir]

I currently prefer mass claim to any lim

[Cephrir]

You didn't start the day off by calling skitter scum for voting you and suddenly pop in to end the day hammering her?

This isn't what your post says, and no I did not suddenly pop in I made it perfectly clear I was letting merlyn use my vote.

Who was pushing skitter before you?

And there's nothing "perfectly clear" about why you hammered. It felt pretty out of the blue to me at the time, and going back and reading your posts there still doesn't much change that impression. You didn't commit to anything with your vote, you halfheartedly pondered voting with Merlyn in a way that wouldn't raise objections if you didn't do so. Like you possibly could if she'd voted where you didn't want to vote.

There is a difference between "started the push on skitter" and "was the first person pushing skitter"

No one cares about my skitter push and it was fully irrelevant by the time a second completely unrelated push occurred

You can call things halfhearted with no citation if you want I guess

[Cephrir]

@merlyn thoughts on switching to sheep or aureal? i might just vote whatever you want right now bc i think you're town and i am so checked out

Huge skitter pusher cephrir, everyone

[Cephrir]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

[Cephrir]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

I stand by my statements and you are either not checking whether what I've said is true or lying.

[Cephrir]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

I stand by my statements and you are either not checking whether what I've said is true or lying.

That response doesn't even make sense. I am comparing your description of your actions to fire's. I'm not even taking a position on how accurate those descriptions are yet; I'm saying that the two of them do not match and wondering why you're cool with fire describing your actions inaccurately according to how you yourself described what you were doing.

They are not mutually exclusive

[Cephrir]

The fact that there is absolutely no impetus toward limming fire today after what happened yesterday makes me want to revise my stance and agree with skitter/menalque that there is some weird unnatural resistance to limming fire right now. fire is the natural lim; there's been like semi-consensus on fire's slot being scum like twice and nothing happened either time + skitter as she was dying kept saying we need to look at fire (she also said she thought sheep looked even worse than fire but still).

Like dunn/ceph, why are you not voting fire now given you were on the wagon yesterday and it's the leading wagon here? Has something meaningfully changed?

Yeah I think yesterday was bait and scum are watching us burn

[Cephrir]

Also if fire is scum we're going to lim me next so I'm just kind of hoping he isn't

[Cephrir]

Also if fire is scum we're going to lim me next so I'm just kind of hoping he isn't

Why are we going to "lim you next" ?

implosion I see two likely teams right now. I see egix/fireisred/cephrir, and I see egix/aureal/sheep. I think both of these are plausible and I'm not sure I want to commit to one today. I think the four non-egix names above are not meaningfully interacting with or considering egix and so if we believe that two of those names are mafia, that makes egix much more likely to be mafia as well in my eyes/ Notably several of these players have gone after me, sometimes multiple times, for things such as "low activity" while never mentioning egix who I feel also fits under that criteria.

"Why are we going to lim you next" (2 seconds later) "ceph is fire's partner"

??

[Cephrir]

I mean yeah egix is probably scum

[Cephrir]

I hadn't verbalized that until after your own post. I still would like to know why you thought so in 1707.

Because I think I look like his partner

[Cephrir]

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

I'll need to mull on Egix.

Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.

If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?

Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.

Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.

For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:

Spoiler:

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @

convincing

reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF

Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right

One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here

[Cephrir]

Checking citations is town 4ever

[Cephrir]

I think it's interesting that sheep chose after being paired with aureal to present a take on her

[Cephrir]

And then make a self conscious multiple metalayers post like the above to hammer home the townread from me

[Cephrir]

My last post wasn't serious if that helps

[Cephrir]

honestly if aisa is scum it'd make me feel a lot better about this whole ordeal. i'd just be getting severely outplayed and that'd be okay

@ceph who was somewhat dubious on me somewhat endorsing aisa's 1-game meta homebrew, i have a soft spot for 1-game meta cases tbh. like i mentioned i think I've used them to some success in the past. I think in certain situations one can kind of extrapolate a lot about the way that a player plays from a single game.

This didn't make me feel better

[Cephrir]

I feel like it's not at all impossible for it to be implosion but that's a concern for a future day

[Cephrir]

Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal

[Cephrir]

Is alianna really the best lead we have

[Cephrir]

I changed my mind I don't look like fire's partner and you're a noob if you go that path

[Cephrir]

implosion can pick the massclaim order?

Why not you

[Cephrir]

I don't feel that strongly about it I just want to kill aureal

[Cephrir]

I'm volunteering you

[Cephrir]

Good thing we haven't limmed him yet

I think an elo mass claim kind of sucks since even if we have a direct contradiction we can blow it

If no one else is crucial then what is the risk anyway

[Cephrir]

If only there were some way to find out whether there are 2 scum

[Cephrir]

I've lost track of why we want to kill fire so bad

[Cephrir]

This is because as his partner I didn't really read any of it to begin with

[Cephrir]

I got prodded because I didn't see the point in obnoxiously calling for aureal's blood every so often and that's all I have to add

[Cephrir]

Idk this strategy seems to be working out for me

[Cephrir]

What is this trying thing you're doing idgi

[Cephrir]

this game is so boring

[Cephrir]

V

̏

̋

͐

̐

͆

ͮ

ͨ

͋

̆

̒

̔

̆

̕

̀

͏

̧

͘

̹

͇

̼

͎

̹

̞

̪

̹

͕

̖

̟

̥

͖

̠

o

͛

̐

́

̓

ͪ

̾

̂

̇

ͬ

̐

ͨ

͏

͡

͡

́

͠

̘

̝

͍

̫

̘

̪

͎

̲

̹

̲

̭

̝

̙

̮

t

͒

̔

̑

̅

͂

̊

̆

̌

̚

͝

̡

̧

́

̩

̦

̮

̮

ͅ

͓

̜

̟

̙

̩

̳

͉

̩

̱

̻

̙

̼

̺

e

̾

ͦ

ͧ

ͯ

ͭ

̉

ͬ

̌

ͬ

̿

ͫ

̃

̃

̈

͟

̢

͜

̕

̥

̝

̜

͙

̤

:

̇

̃

̎

ͮ

ͦ

̄

́

͂

ͯ

̀

̿

̨

̞

̘

̝

̪

̦

̭

͈

͓

̪

͉

̰

̻

͎

͎

̃

̌

̿

͗

̃

ͪ

ͦ

͗

͛

ͭ

ͦ

͏

͝

̛

͜

̶

̼

̤

͖

͇

͙

͈

͈

͇

ͅ

͙

ͅ

̥

A

̒

́

ͬ

̊

̓

͆

̉

ͨ

̓

ͨ

͆

̔

̾

̑

̽

̑

ͯ

̒

̏

͢

̸

̷

͘

ͅ

̟

̦

̼

̳

̠

̣

u

̋

̎

͋

̆

͛

̓

͂

͗

ͬ

̓

̋

̊

̿

̍

̿

ͫ

͛

̛

̴

͡

̥

̱

̹

̤

͕

̘

̰

̰

̙

̥

̤

r

̓

ͫ

̒

͂

͆

͊

͆

̎

ͦ

̊

͞

҉

̼

͓

̟

̩

̩

̯

̳

ͅ

͈

̞

̥

e

ͤ

̀

ͣ

ͮ

ͩ

ͩ

̾

̈

̆

̓

͂

̋

̌

ͪ

͐

̓

̡

̨

͞

̶

͍

̭

̺

̠

̯

͓

̻

͉

͚

̬

̦

̙

͍

͙

ͅ

̗

̦

a

͗

̍

ͬ

̇

̨

́

̸

̵

̤

̱

̬

̭

͕

̝

̩

̬

͓

͍

̩

̝

l

̒

ͬ

ͦ

̚

͐

͂

ͣ

͂

̽

̔

͒

͞

̷

̼

̗

̳

͖

̣

̰

ͅ

̼

͍

̭

̤

̤

͍

[Cephrir]

hmm no i can do better

V

̏

̋

͐

̐

͆

ͮ

ͨ

͋

̆

̒

̔

̆

̕

̀

͏

̧

͘

̹

͇

̼

͎

̹

̞

̪

̹

͕

̖

̟

̥

͖

̠

o

͛

̐

́

̓

ͪ

̾

̂

̇

ͬ

̐

ͨ

͏

͡

͡

́

͠

̘

̝

͍

̫

̘

̪

͎

̲

̹

̲

̭

̝

̙

̮

t

͒

̔

̑

̅

͂

̊

̆

̌

̚

͝

̡

̧

́

̩

̦

̮

̮

ͅ

͓

̜

̟

̙

̩

̳

͉

̩

̱

̻

̙

̼

̺

e

̾

ͦ

ͧ

ͯ

ͭ

̉

ͬ

̌

ͬ

̿

ͫ

̃

̃

̈

͟

̢

͜

̕

̥

̝

̜

͙

̤

:

̇

̃

̎

ͮ

ͦ

̄

́

͂

ͯ

̀

̿

̨

̞

̘

̝

̪

̦

̭

͈

͓

̪

͉

̰

̻

͎

͎

̃

̌

̿

͗

̃

ͪ

ͦ

͗

͛

ͭ

ͦ

͏

͝

̛

͜

̶

̼

̤

͖

͇

͙

͈

͈

͇

ͅ

͙

ͅ

̥

A

̒

́

ͬ

̊

̓

͆

̉

ͨ

̓

ͨ

͆

̔

̾

̑

̽

̑

ͯ

̒

̏

͢

̸

̷

͘

ͅ

̟

̦

̼

̳

̠

̣

u

̋

̎

͋

̆

͛

̓

͂

͗

ͬ

̓

̋

̊

̿

̍

̿

ͫ

͛

̛

̴

͡

̥

̱

̹

̤

͕

̘

̰

̰

̙

̥

̤

r

̓

ͫ

̒

͂

͆

͊

͆

̎

ͦ

̊

͞

҉

̼

͓

̟

̩

̩

̯

̳

ͅ

͈

̞

̥

e

ͤ

̀

ͣ

ͮ

ͩ

ͩ

̾

̈

̆

̓

͂

̋

̌

ͪ

͐

̓

̡

̨

͞

̶

͍

̭

̺

̠

̯

͓

̻

͉

͚

̬

̦

̙

͍

͙

ͅ

̗

̦

a

͗

̍

ͬ

̇

̨

́

̸

̵

̤

̱

̬

̭

͕

̝

̩

̬

͓

͍

̩

̝

l

̒

ͬ

ͦ

̚

͐

͂

ͣ

͂

̽

̔

͒

͞

̷

̼

̗

̳

͖

̣

̰

ͅ

̼

͍

̭

̤

̤

͍

[Cephrir]

wat else is there to mafia

fun vote formatting for starters

it would help if you all could make your cases at a 5th grade reading level and include pictures

[Cephrir]

Y'all can't follow instructions that isn't aureal at all

[Cephrir]

The scumpost quotient is off the charts

[Cephrir]

This is so clearly a scum meltdown I don't know how to help anyone who can't tell

I'm genuinely tempted to offer myself up to get it done and that's not a thing I do

[Cephrir]

Wow I viscerally gate making such statements of certainty it's hard for me to believe I could be right about something even though my track record lately has been pretty decent

[Cephrir]

Hate*

[Cephrir]

I will accept the blame for this one if it's a miss. You're free, dear reader, so just do it

[Cephrir]

I guess sheep is a plausible enough partner that I don't need to lose my shit over it

[Cephrir]

Lolol let's kill townies idc

[Cephrir]

Good luck

[Cephrir]

You hate to see it

[Cephrir]

i still think aureal is scum and i don't have to be embarrassed until it's proven otherwise

[Cephrir]

1. Because I haven't reevaluated or read sheep yet
2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too

[Cephrir]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

[Cephrir]

Tell me why this specific counterwagon can't be a partner or you're just doing wagonomics (which are not real)

[Cephrir]

Are we claiming today?

[Cephrir]

fire's already claimed

i imagine we want me or dunn to start right? idc i'll go, im VT

[Cephrir]

how aureal managed to not claim yesterday is beyond me

[Cephrir]

prepare for a stack of waffles that will probably make you want to vote me

I think CSF is towny

I did an ISO too so cool u can pass day 1

Why do u think csf is townie?

idk there was just a v large quantity of thoughts that I really like

I think what bothered me about not engaging with major thread stuff is no longer valid; she had firm decent stances on all my major wolfreads etc

and generally her remarks just feel authentic/un-agenda'd; idk how to explain this vibe well but there's like a good mix of consensus and anti-consensusness

feels a little not partnered with csf

iyam

theres scum in the recent pivot to dunnstral, even if enchant is town lol

because enchant seems perceptibly the objectively optimal lim today. via consensus reads + theyre not doing legit stuff

like Even if dunn is scummy and even if dunn is wolf lol, enchant should be resolved

the movement around is such a strange show-y response to enchant not being villagery

I was actually feeling weird about dunn lol

but like

not really interested in even pondering that rn

d1 is slugging

is this like, setting up for a future dunn scum flip while also not wanting it to happen right away

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

if you were ever worried about aisa: don't be

I like fire's skitter read, at a quick skim. I think it's vaguely similar to mild paranoia ive been wanting to articulate that her reads are too static?
like for example, she first put CSF at wolf for a minor thing. then she keeps repeating here and there that she thinks CSF is a wolf, but many many people have expressed a different opinion and she doesn't engage with it. she asked me why I townread CSF, didnt rly do anything with the response; tons of other people say "I townread CSF" and skitter disagrees but just doesn't rly interact. I think something similar happened with Andante, where first she developed a push on Andante, then a bunch of people went "I feel like this is town for andante?" sorta stuff and I dont feel skitter faced that enough and instead just kept maintaining a rigid andante!wolf

when I saw fire talking about skitter I liked fire more, it feels like we're somewhattt poking at a similar thing

i could see this as a pocket attempt, though i guess fire has made points to the effect that pocketing someone who's already on death row isn't really a thing

maybe i should see whether sheep could ever have made fire dead and declined to do so... i feel like probably yes?

skitter:
I have like 7 more pages I want to read and I think I can do it soon, and then I can probably better answer your question about whether I'd vote fire

idk it's a weird question. I cant promise I'd vote him because my instinct finds him mildly more likely town due to similar gamestate feels and stuff, the wagon feels a bit weird and I just don't rly find myself really convinced by things ppl have said.

I can say like I'd re-think him, I'd feel worse about him. I've already been thinking like, it makes some sense to resolve him because a lot of my townreads just want it dead, which would be reinforced with your flip lol. I think sometimes in a game it's owed to flipped villagers to kill their strongest wolfread. but ive had this conversation before where like, someone (mu champs winner) said that a villager died and had said "please kill this person" so now we need to kill that person, and I refused to forego my minor townread on the person, and we agreed to disagree, this seems similar

feel like there's just a blank space where there should be a real opinion about fire's alignment

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

You've got some pretty weird progression on my slot, lol. Here, I just ISOed you, here's a few of my thoughts to which I'll add that.

votes Drew in 240, no reasoning given and I'm not seeing anything coming soon afterwards
poking skeptically at other people like Alianna (108, 242) CSF (241), Woo (311, 313), Aisa (401, 482, 487) but apparently not skeptical enough to move off the unexplained Drew vote
tries to ask people about skitter, has expressed no read (495, 555)
566 is a readlist with Drew at the bottom, still no explanation for that, just feels confident (655, 665)
then 874 and 875 basically just say Enchant should be resolved, still only because "not doing legit stuff"
D2 opening is weird, thinks Aisa's movements at end of D1 is wolfy and I've no idea why
lots more concern about Aisa throughout the day, pulling back a bit (1135, 1323)
read on CSF keeps going back and forth
doubt about fire wagon, doubt about skitter, townreads me for no reason (1367) and just now expresses worry that was never expressed prior but it's okay because my post cleared it up

can you talk about why u think some of these things like weird progression are wolfy? or lacking explanation?

I guess I mostly see why they would seem intuitively so lol but I feel like this altogether is presented too indirectly. it would help read u if you can sort of make like another linking step

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

This is more for a future day, but what concerns did you have, and how did Aureals post resolve them?

I felt like they were hinting at wariness about the fire wagon but not being outright enough. struggling to find the words to describe it rn; like shading the fire wagon. like when I felt weird about the fire wagon (first I talked about how I felt about the wagon and then I saw aureal's earlier posts) I feel like I did it much more directly. the recent post is like definitely very direct and I think her concerns about red wagon are pretty similar to what my concerns were lol with some differences but similar enough that it's like a mind meld

...i guess im just quoting these for those on the go to see if they can make anything of it wrt aureal's alignment. i'm not sure i can. i wanted to suggest a partnership but im not confident it's that indicative

I sorta wolfread pushes like that that are just like "this person did this and that" and the implication is that those are wolfy things, for things I think are stereotypically wolfy but imo aren't actually wolfy, like flip floppy progressions etc.

like it can easily reveal wolfiness with further depth, like if the jolting around fits with agenda / thread sentiment but I dislike selling it like that at face value

So, just checking, you're not feeling Aureal as town anymore?

I rly have no idea about that slot lol, I need to ISO it sometime but like probably not this day cuz it doesnt matter we shouldn't CFD at this point

if we lim fire and fire flips town I would townread the slot but fire actually makes a really good point about avoiding skitter so possibly nvm

this i think maybe bodes a little worse for aureal
maybe her side of their later interaction is more telling here idk

if anything I think dunn being so unexplained lurking-in-the-shadows says town-dunn to me lmao but thats leaning into gutty reads to ideally not rely on mid-game

wow this dude hates having opinions

aureal - purest tone ive played with in a long time which is +town

but I keep coming to that push on me as a little bad faith. I think "sheep hasn't been explaining things and his contributions have started lacking" feels weird to assert like that because it ignores context. at first, I was definitely not what theyre describing, I started the game pretty thorough. then, I was like we just need to kill enchant here lol--which could be wolfy, but it completely explains what theyre describing. then, I outright say, im lacking motivation for this game and not going to do much, which could be wolfy, but it explains what theyre describing. to the point where it's wolfy to just be like "sheep is doing these things, these are wolfy things so obv sheep is a wolf"

what do we like less, a lack of opinion with any conviction (fire, maybe dunn) or whatever the hell this is

for example

off the top of my head I had been thinking about how dunn/egix isnt teamed

I dont think aureal -> dunn can be on a team together either

I feel like im not w/w with aureal, her shade of me was goofers

I feel like these sorts of nuances should maybe throw into question a little more your 90% confident group of only 4

this post is a doozy of trying to sow doubt in a townblock. it's probably right. maybe someone else can divine more from this post

I think dunn is the wolfiest slot and I think aureal/egix are the next wolfiest slots

this comes out of nowhere afaict

Maybe I’d rather move to Dunn if aureal wants to try it lol

I’m just lazy

now we're townreading aureal??

off of a reallyyy lazy meta skim of aureal I think I feel worse about her

viewtopic.php?t=90918

this is the wolfgame I read; my first thoughts were

-shit she's very capable of faking all the things ive liked
-she seems less in-depth, more aggro, lots of questions

viewtopic.php?sid=&f=84&t=90508&user_select%5B%5D=1446

this is the villa game I read

this made me think she is more like her wolf meta here. she is just more like, mild and working with people and asking them for collaboration. I think as wolf she attacks fairly aggressively and asks people things with a see-able goal of "how will I make this person look wolf," (which I sorta think has been in this game) and as town she works more with others than I think ive seen here.

granted I skimmed very quickly

why did user sheepsaysmeep feel the need to metadive aureal at this moment?

one big thing is that I think Dunn's treatment of fire is pretty bad

he has been defending fire without expressing a townread there

first more subtly by being like we gotta do egix et al. today, and then like I prefer these people over voting dunn, and then it's not working so he's more outright like I want to not lim fire

I think if he Townreads fire he should say words explaining it to more firmly actually defend his townread fire

I think if he doesn't townread fire he should get the approach of people like implosion/menal/ sort of me now more. the reasons to resolve him + like, some part of me hoped to be compelled by him today but I just struggle to be compelled by him today. I feel like implo's perspective on why to steamroll him makes more sense than dunn acts like he gets

i think he's more than once paired fire with dunn so i feel like it can't be both of them

sheep, what do you think the implications of an Aureal townflip would be?

I think I would always feel a need to resolve the cephrir this game--idk how likely I actually think that he is wolf but just from a concrete standpoint of in lylo, what things has each person done and how pro-town were they in hindsight

I would have said fire wolf a day ago but honestly fmpov his EoD just feels town so I would reflect on that overnight

probably dunn looks a bit bad from the way he's dancing around clearly choosing between all of us ?? me/aureal as well as fire
he has just given no meaningful stances about it despite indicating preferences

im town lmao

[Cephrir]

I'm not willing to townlean anyone on the basis of "has reads" but I guess I won't complain about it too much.

this stuff felt slightly wolf to me at surface level.

"I won't complain about it too much" just feels like a wolf perspective in a way that I could see alianna slipping up. either about some correct townreads or wanting to get townread herself for an active start

the idea of town complaining about some page 2 reads just doesnt make sense to me, even if u disagree with the reads.

what I would expect town to do is like, evaluate implosion's alignment based on that

, which doesn't happen;

this post also assumes implosion town in a +0.05% wolf way

idk ive been back and forth on this

How am I supposed to evaluate someone's alignment off "X and Y are towny" with no reasoning? There really wasn't much to sort in the post. Even though I had a guess about the reasoning, I didn't find it AI. I just disagreed with it.

How does it do that?

i thought this interaction (pink mainly) was really silly at the time and now i wonder if it's silly because it's a forced effort at interaction

can u briefly talk abt drew too lol

do u townread him or does it just seem meh cuz out of nowhere

Mostly because it's out of nowhere.
I do still have him above the null line though because I still like that read from Aisa.

I'm also noticing a slight tone difference from when I was scum with her, but I can't really put it into words yet. I know that's not exactly helpful, just going to note it anyway.

I am curious if u can link this game pls. tho I prob wont read super in depth

viewtopic.php?t=90462
We were both part of the Dei Ex Machina hydra. I was Nyx, she was Morta, and our third partner was Janus.

these as well i could see being forced interactions they're very milquetoast

[Cephrir]

im not rereading fire lol

alianna/delta were still scum tho. i'm gonna feel a little stupid if i was right all along about that

[Cephrir]

And the reason I am complaining about you two is because I am thinking that you two are town. I don't really care that egix is doing nothing today and placed the weakest omgus vote of all time then disappeared because yeah they're probably mafia anyway. Aureal kind of feels like they have an agenda but I think I would eliminate sheepsaysmeep before Aureal at this point as I have been growing increasingly suspicious of them.

Hey nice timing fire

I read up on everything and I think that Aureal looks worse than Sheep over the past few pages. Though implosion has a point in 2299.

Aureal's vote switch to sheep back in 2063 and explanation and now their current posting is stuff that makes me feel like they are mafia.

I've convinced myself so I will vote.

VOTE: Aureal

[Cephrir]

who is ur conclusion about who to lim next? cephrir?

LOOK GUYS AUREAL DIDN'T NUMERICALLY ORDER HER POE LIST LOL SO SCUMMY

NVM HOW OBVIOUSLY WE AREN'T GONNA LISTEN TO HER ANYWAY, AFTER ALL WE DIDN'T BOTHER LISTENING TO SKITTER AND PEOPLE ACTUALLY RESPECT HER TOWN GAME UNLIKE AUREAL'S

this post seems even worse now

[Cephrir]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Psst, implosion, can I just join you there and not worry about finding whatever it was that was making me feel better about sheep bc I just really wanna crash and eat dinner now

Okay I'm just gonna do it.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Didn't go through stuff but from memory, besides the posting at the end of the day two that I mentioned then, I thought that sheep's attempt to meta case me and subsequent fail in calling a town game a scum game seemed somewhat unlikely to come from scum. Both for the effort and the obvious screw up. Could be theater though, it did get called out right away.

And sheep's posting where he strongly took up my idea about nobody even trying to distance from Egix's slot was... Interesting. I wouldn't say I liked it, but I did take note of it. Usually when I throw out an oddball idea like that, people think it's terrible, not decide to champion it.

So I guess if that's all I can think of, it's not feeling nearly as convincing now after seeing sheep vote me without much actual reason and then now this weird shift to fire, whom gamestate is making me more concerned about being town.

???????

i wonder if this whole fight was intentional tbh

[Cephrir]

VOTE: fire i guess

[Cephrir]

im unaware of what makes that team impossible, but even so, dont expect me to preflip anyone ever it's not gonna happen

[Cephrir]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

[Cephrir]

I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.

It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this

2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too

I still wanna ask why you think / thought this

it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity

[Cephrir]

Also, Ceph, when did you change your mind on me? It sort of happened without me noticing at the time, lol

Spoiler:

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

I find this compelling.

here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die

{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}


i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow

Included first quote because it's funny fmpov

Spoiler:

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

I'll need to mull on Egix.

Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.

If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?

Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.

Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.

For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:

Spoiler:

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @

convincing

reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF

Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right

One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here

Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread

Spoiler:

Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal

And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist

don't remember, will try to sort it out later i have a meeting rn

[Cephrir]

2 scum makes me feel a little less bad about the misses

[Cephrir]

I too think Aureal looks a bit townier in light of the flip. Two reasons for this:
1. I don't think her behaviour towards sheep looked especially partnered,
2. Just knowing that sheep was mafia kinda snaps me out of the trance of "Aureal might be scum!!1" and, I think, takes power out of the case on Aureal.

It's heartening to see that Ceph's newest posts also have a sense of this

2. Because aureal's meltdown makes even more sense if her partner is getting run up too

I still wanna ask why you think / thought this

it feels kind of self explanatory... she'd have no positive way out of the situation, be actively losing the game and feeling helpless about it, and maybe even want to make some bad posts in order to die if she thought sheep had more longevity

this may be me holding onto hope that im not completely bad but this does make some sense to me

implosion was asking about why scum aureal would ever do that, and i think a world where the plan was for sheep to endgame and aureal to die, only for things to start to tilt towards sheep, is definitely a possibility

if there's one thing that y'all listen to after i flip (it sure shouldn't be my reads lol) its that please PLEASE do not clear anyone as unaligned off day 3 play because i think scum's main goal there would be to appear unaligned. even knowing there was only 2. maybe especially knowing there was only 2

i think it makes sense to read into earlier d3 when the lim appeared to be you, if you flip town

later on, agreed

[Cephrir]

I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.

hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why

[Cephrir]

Also, Ceph, when did you change your mind on me? It sort of happened without me noticing at the time, lol

Spoiler:

Hello darlin'. What can I help you with today

Damn
Would you like me to ask you a question or would that make it worse

Keep in mind that if you choose "make it worse" at some point I may decide you don't get a choice and ask the question anyway

enchant is an open wolf here please take the freebie

Great! I have assigned you a question. Your question is: was there anything behind your conviction here, except implosion's case?

VOTE: Enchant

Yeet. This may be all the content I can muster today, but yeet.

I have also assigned you a question, dear. Your question is: see question above

I think one thing I’m curious about,

@implosion

, is why you decided to make your case 24 hours after Enchant subbed in. Did you ever think about waiting a bit longer to see if Enchant would do something before accusing him? How certain were you that he was going to flip scum?

this is aisa coming into today clearly prepping to push the notion that the enchant wagon was scum-driven but scared to actually say it out loud like other people, which I would have believed more

Though I sympathise with what other people have been saying about Enchant meta, I think his alignment was ambiguous and I don't really blame people for wanting to flip there

this I just do not believe side-by-side with the agenda of the SoD questions

I find this compelling.

here i'll just make a list off the top of my head. maybe i should iso myself later to remember what my opinions are, ive honestly just been waiting for your slot to die

{menalque, mega (where are you tho?)}
{dunnstral, sheep (i think? i forget), implosion}
{egix, aureal}
{skitter, aisa}
{fire}


i am so checked out of this game that i started isoing the enchant slot to remember what my read on it is. wow

Included first quote because it's funny fmpov

Spoiler:

Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

Someone? Anyone. Cmon. How is this not an attractive proposition?

I think for a while I was at
{implosion, Cephrir, Aureal}
{Menalque, sheep, Egix, fireisredsir, Dunn}

but Egixslot is actually definitely a townslot at least until I change my mind again and it's a stronger read than Ceph. If I swap those I get
{implosion, Egix, Aureal}
{Cephrir, Menalque, sheep, fireisredsir, Dunn}

and I think this also gives me more scumteam options I find compelling to play with

I'll need to mull on Egix.

Why is Menalque in your PoE? I think that he can be scum here but I think it's pretty rare.

If you have convincing reasons on Aureal and Egix then I'm definitely interested in hearing them. Is Egix based primarily on CSF?

Unrelatedly, there's a part of sheep's posting right now that kind of just makes me want to lim him today. 1761/1762 just feel very... exactly-the-thing-scum-has-to-post-here to me. Like it's just the only place he can naturally go now that Aisa is off the table. It feels kinda trite.

Yeah I’m not really sure why Mena is in the PoE either. I think his posting when he was talking to fire was probably a bit town indicative, but I probably wasn’t completely sold when I made the list and I haven’t re-evaluated since.

For Aureal I still stand by the reasoning here:

Spoiler:

Dunn I have an easy time justifying a scumread on to myself. Maybe the Andante spiel is +town, but it's just one action and I feel like the rest of his ISO comes down to vibes, and I don't even have a history of being very successful reading him on vibes.

I've thought about Aureal and rn I want to townread her for feeling similar to the one previous time I played with her, where she was town. I don't think there are actually any glaring ways she feels different from that game. I think her posting style should be quite demanding to reproduce as scum; it's quite dense. Good on her if she can mimic it so well on her first time rolling non-multiball scum, but I've decided I'm ok with townreading her for now.

If you want an example of what I mean about Aureal's posting style, see this post. She gives a lot of arguments pro / con the various slots.

P-edit: I'm trying to keep myself from writing long posts lol
this is one reason why I think another day of fire vs skitter would not be great, even though I don't mind the long posts personally. I'm aware a lot of people have complained about this recently.

Egix we’ll see if I feel inspired later today (lol @

convincing

reasons) but yes it is mostly based on CSF

Not only are you using one game's worth of meta to townbin aureal, but you also don't even have a scum game to see if she can replicate the things you're looking at. That doesn't seem as strong as implosion is characterizing it below this, which I find strange in its own right

One game of meta seems a lot weaker than trying to read her based on this game and her actual actions here

Then you talk to me again here and I'm not sure if this is the way you would talk to a townread or a scumread

Spoiler:

Aisa
Mena
Implosion
Dunn
Egix/sheep/fire
Aureal

And the next time you mention me I am at the top of your readslist

don't remember, will try to sort it out later i have a meeting rn

Ok thanks no stress!

wasn't me attacking you for towncasing aureal badly - it was me trying to get you to agree with my read

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Aureal
I started writing half of this thought dump like 12 hours ago and it's... interesting to see what has happened in the interim

How my thoughts got to this point

(skip if walls make you sad)

Spoiler:

It seems like I somehow tricked you suckers into hard townlocking me, so I can skip the step where I apologise for being chaotic bwahahahaha

Anyway. fire doesn't seem all that scummy anymore. I thought his initial meta on me was extremely flimsy, and once I locked in {implosion Aureal Egix} as town there weren't many other places where it made sense to me to eliminate anyway. But his updated meta is better, and he didn't continue pushing me. That got me thinking about how it doesn't feel like he's been pushing any sort of agenda today. He hasn't really proposed an alternative solve, or done anything. If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.

I still have worries, of course. I'm worried about how bad for the gamestate (sorry) fire vs skitter was if it was a TvT. I'd need to reread that to get a better sense of whether it was something fire accidentally got sucked into (better).

I also have worries about my new push. For a while in my head Aureal was the mafia industrial complex's chosen mislim, and I still worry that I am playing into that. It feels like this is an elimination that might actually

happen

. Could it be that easy...? If Mena and implosion are town where is the opposition to the wagon...? But maybe it is that easy, I don't think it's possible to tell right now.

And Aureal... oh, Aureal. I think I've ignored some warning signs for too long. Let's talk about them.

Aureal scum warning signs

I tried to ignore these for a while, but I've come around to the idea that I... shouldn't, especially there are moments like these from

both players in this slot

.

Spoiler:

[...]
This game slowed down for a while then quickly blew up over the last day, I'll be in later to catch up.

To those asking why I voted dunn — I’m holding off a little more on this until I hear from woo

Yeah I dunno what to tell ya. it's gonna be a little late, had some irl stuff. I'm reading through the pages rn and nothing feels like it changed for me. Enchant and Andante still my biggest scumreads. Invis and Skitter still my TRs. Rest various shades of null.

This is not how I personally react to the game moving, by a large stretch. I'd need to reread to be sure but IIRC at the time it felt like lots of interesting things were happening. Woo was able to write this post on Drew, so I think this shows that at least in principle he is capable of paying attention to a specific slot's posting and being interested in individual posts. I feel like he should have been able to muster up the resolve to... have some more opinions on the rest of the game?

Spoiler:

Ok, the promised post on Aureal
[...]

Spoiler:

[...]
I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be

that

brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?
[...]

The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.

- Feel free to address any of my megapost!

[...]
The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean? I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite. I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.
[...]

The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.

Spoiler:

VOTE: fire

Skitt was a counterwagon because fire is scum

Anyone who tries to save fire from being the lim today is also scum

Uh, you think two thirds of the remaining players are scum? This just isn't really a productive attitude. I'm more open to fire now but we could still, like, talk about it?
[...]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

Aureal let's talk about Ceph, I'm pretty sure he's town

Sure. Why's he town? I've not had him as better than null and these conversations with him have him coming off very oddly nitpicky.

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

fire's original wording was

person a) [Cephrir] was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

which is compatible with what Ceph was doing (pushing skitter, then parked on fire, then asked about starting a 3rd wagon, then decided to sheep Merlyn which resulted in him voting skitter)

I don't really see how that's compatible, but if you do I'll let it go. Saying "hey Merlyn what do you think about starting new wagons on one of these people" without even so much as moving off a main wagon yourself seems pretty

in

active and

not

working to me.

As far as massclaim, I've rather come around to the 'just lim fire' position. I really dislike how fire just vanished once I started pushing back at him, and has only decided to talk about implosion (a consensus townread) since then. It feels like scum realizing they could end up making me look too unpartnered if they keep engaging with me.

VOTE: fireisredsir

These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.

This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.

(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)

Feedback please

Misc thoughts:

- I'm also maybe willing to think about voting Dunn or sheep? Haven't absorbed fire's Dunn towncase yet. sheep kinda vibes town but man it's day 3 and I feel like he's spent half the game making his mind up on me (<3)
- The explanation for why we shouldn't massclaim makes sense to me, #nomassclaim
- I think that if fire is town, then Mena looks a bit worse. (Which, ironically, makes me a bit way of Mena regardless of fire, because I dislike completely clearing slots off associatives.) When I think back on why I've felt some pressure to lim fire, it feels like a lot of it has come from Mena. That doesn't mean Mena is scum. But that got me thinking that he seems more confident on scum!fire than the situation warrants to me.
- The way implosion has handled the massclaim discussion looks towny. Not the part where he explains the setup, he obviously does that as both alignments, lol. Specifically the mindset in '73 and '80, and the fact he thought of '76 at all. (Just in case the quintillion reasons to townread him so far were not sufficient. )

(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)

man this is what I thought about skitter lol

Yeah there is a certain irony if I'm helping fire wiggle out of it again

Spoiler:

If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.

I think this is pretty reasonable. It's entirely possible that I'm being too obstinate. But I do still hold reservations; I think if fire got to today as scum, this is how fire would play today as scum. My impression of fire is biased in many ways, part of which is because I perceive fire as approaching the game of mafia in some ways similar to how I do, in that fire if scum is sort of trying to make the locally next best move without needing to think about the bigger picture necessarily because the bigger picture for fire is that fire needs to get townread and the way to do that is to act, in each moment, how fire would act as town. And I think fire, if scum, thinks that fire, as town, would just be going along like they've been doing in this day.

I do sort of wonder what they'd say about their own meta in this regard/if they think this is how they'd be playing today as scum.

The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.

It's a little worrying but I think there is also possibly some +town justification in it; in particular I think carelessness is townish as scum probably on average tend to be more careful to not say something factually wrong because it's their entire job. I guess this case is sort of a strange thing to forget that she had written. Idk, I don't put a ton of stock into this bit.

These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.

This... strikes me as how I'd instinctively play today if I were scum and fire was town. And also very much not how I'd want to play if I were scum with fire.

(Which brings up an interesting point: maybe if we eliminate Aureal today and she is scum, then her interactions with fire can help take the sting out of our collective paranoia of fire.)

Feedback please

I think this point has merit. I do think it's possible for Aureal to be doing this with both her and fire as scum; I think if fire is scum then scum will feel like they need at least one person bussing, because there'd probably be a bit of doom in the air around fire's slot and someone would need to capitalize on that. Like Menalque, one of the townbloc, was talking about how if we don't lim fire today we ought to be autolimming fire tomorrow or whatever (don't quote me on this, idr the exact phrasing)

Well, I appreciate you cooling my enthusiasm a little. I think these all valid points.

One new angle I've decided might be interesting is... the choice to prioritise investigating if he feels good "confidently clearing" you/implosion and me. That feels like it must have been a very... calculated choice? idk how to explain this, my intuition is just telling me there may be something interesting there. I kind of wonder if there's more town or scum motivation behind a choice like that.

if i was still worried about you at all, these posts would have cured me

[Cephrir]

oh that's way after that readlist jk

[Cephrir]

i think i had you low because i found some points that someone (sheep?) made kinda convincing and you just continued to townpost after that so i stopped caring

[Cephrir]

ya idk there are so many posts from you in this span that have really transparent & believable thought processes i can't imagine how i could cite only one or several

[Cephrir]

i think there's probably some merit to looking in the aureal voters for scum here now that we know there are only 2 so they can only bus from a good position

(unless it is just aureal)

[Cephrir]

i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe

and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him

only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed

i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)

instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?

like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol

but still

I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow

What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.

It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.

fire->fire??->Aureal->fire/Aureal->sheep/fire/Aureal->sheep->sheep/Aureal

Does that seem reasonable enough?

And now that I know there are only 2 scum it's an even less compelling argument than it was before. That's not even enough for "resistance" to exist

[Cephrir]

I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.

hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why

I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.

And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.

Already has? His one post since then doesn't seem relevant

[Cephrir]

i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe

and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him

only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed

i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)

instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?

like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol

but still

I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow

What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.

It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.

fire->fire??->Aureal->fire/Aureal->sheep/fire/Aureal->sheep->sheep/Aureal

Does that seem reasonable enough?

And now that I know there are only 2 scum it's an even less compelling argument than it was before. That's not even enough for "resistance" to exist

???????????

What does the number of scum have to do with anything? Townies can't resist a wagon? Huh?

.......

What difference does it make if townies resist a wagon? That's not what resistance means when players use it to scumhunt. They mean "this wagon isn't happening and I think it's because scum don't want it." I can't see what possible use town aligned "resistance" would have to anyone's analysis lol

[Cephrir]

I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.

hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why

I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.

And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.

Already has? His one post since then doesn't seem relevant

What are you talking about? Why are you giving an arbitrary cutoff where apparently any earlier opinion changes don't count? I think it's clear from end of d3 that Dunn is fine changing his mind at pivotal moments and don't know why you seem dismissive of it happening again.

I misunderstood your post then

[Cephrir]

If fire is town I bet we can get something of value from day 2

[Cephrir]

But as of right now I'm kinda feeling like:

Aisa
implo
sheep
gwoo

are my prob towns

Okay, coming back to this:

- I can't remember why I had implo that high, he should be more like at the low end of the town pile (just vibes)
- I should have included Andante here, but simply presumed she would be self-resolving due to the PR claim
- Adding Ceph to this because I think he looked townier than skitter in the interactions they had earlier this Day
- fire is townier than Alianna was. I don't wanna go as far as saying "ooh I townread this slot now!" but I did not want there to be a hammer yet.
- I kinda think that Aureal's slot is just obv town at this point, her posting is even better than GWoo's was.

So, seems like that leaves me with Dunn, Mena, or skitter as my vote.

I don't have a case ready yet but I'll

VOTE: skitter

as she's the one I have the worst vibes from atm. (I skimmed her iso earlier so I should be able to elaborate when I have more time)

Hm maybe not.
I was thinking if fire is town scum would have wanted to make sure skitter goes over there, but the only possible scum vote aside from sheep fmpov is this one, the first one which I think comes prior to wagon viability

[Cephrir]

My next assignment will be the ydra slot

[Cephrir]

your point about those pages is that it's not aureal right

[Cephrir]

he wasn't really present in them aside from the posts you noted but i agree those are not good

[Cephrir]

i townread csf for playing at all (meta) but her subbing out sinks that theory for me
neither csf nor egix ever has a sheep interaction that feels unpartnered to me. just some very mild conversation. egix also slams him into the townbin and never talks about it ever
ydrasse did enter the game with the express mission of "kill sheep" but... a preexisting decision that she's going to try and close it out explains the surprising amount of effort she put in right away

i could see it

[Cephrir]

gonna go mald over how hard i've scumsided this game now that i think aureal is less likely ttyl

[Cephrir]

realistically we're going to do what aisa/mena want today unless someone makes a really compelling case against one of them

but those three people alone do not have enough votes to yeet anything anyway so im not sure what that concern is kinda

[Cephrir]

ouch

[Cephrir]

im just waiting for aisa to tell me what to do

[Cephrir]

@ceph I guess if you have a case or specific stuff you think spews aureal scum tell me where to look and I’ll try to

you may notice i'm not voting her currently

[Cephrir]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

Are you saying aureal/sheep just shit bussed each other? If so where?

im just saying that i don't think it's impossible they were forced into voting for each other

[Cephrir]

Prod dodge

[Cephrir]

Your rules are silly

VOTE: ydrasse

[Cephrir]

Mod influences game by forcing player to do something relevant, more at 11

[Cephrir]