Mini 894: Vortex (Game, Set, Match)

[Tarhalindur]

WHY HELLO THAR!

LISTEN UP, YOU MAGGOT! YO FAT ASS MAY HAVE BEEN ENOUGH FOR MAMMA'S BOY, BUT YOU ARE IN THE ARMY NOW! GET YO GIRLY ASS OFF THE FLOOR AND GET SOME KAMINA GLASSES!

C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER

THAT GOES FOR YOU TOO! IF YOU AREN'T WEARING THESE GLASSES, YOU DON'T DESERVE TO LIVE!

[Tarhalindur]

Cut the chatter, ladies.

Vote: RayFrost

- it may be the random stage, but the sheer amount of posting that's not related to the game is scummy as all hell.

See also: forbiddanlight, Cobalt (who are both nearly as scummy as RayFrost right now).

[Tarhalindur]

First order of business:

V/LA until Friday (finals week)

.

Tar, have you played with Ray before?

As Ray noted, no completed games. More importantly, I haven't total read him at any point, so I don't have meta on him.

On the Boxman wagon... where the hell did that large of a wagon come from? Why the hell is Boxman at L-2 - that is to say, CLAIM RANGE - four pages (not counting confirmation stage) into the game?

Those last three votes on the Boxman wagon (Cobalt, Mipe, chamber) look fishy as hell.

On the other hand... my policy is that a player put at L-2 in a game with >9 players should be forced to claim... and Boxman is moderately scummy... but I don't see a wagon that large forming around a scumbuddy this early.

Now, for the players that ramped up the Boxman wagon:

Cobalt:

I vote without reasons and purely to bandwagon all the time. Like, as anything, in any game.

I'll be checking on that when I get time to total read.

that was a hilariously fast wagon. looks like mipe is scum.

Uh, what? Why? I could say the same about you.

I don't like the way box reacted to unk's questioning.

he talked about liking wagons but was also afraid to put on a 4th vote? very weird.
and on that note, I'm off to a final.

...

mipe:

Unvote
Vote: Boxman

, because Boxgirls look better than boxmans.

Fourth vote with no reasoning? Okay, maybe Cobalt's vote isn't quite as bad as I thought...

Chamber:

I know it's fruitless to ask chamber why he jumped on the wagon on Boxman despite his last post being one defending Boxman.

Refuting an attack is different than proclaiming someone town. I thought and still think the reason you used was faulty, this doesn't mean I can't have my own reasons for wanting him to hang.

... DAMN IT, IT'S CHAMBER.

With any luck, we'll eventually confirm him with rolebased.

Cobalt and mipe look scummy right now. Boxman would also be on the list, except that the wagon suggests to me that he's not scum.

Mipe: Explain the reason why you voted Boxman.
Cobalt: Why is Mipe scum? Moreover... if Mipe is scum, why are you still voting for Boxman?

Everyone: Time to force a Boxman claim?

Unvote, Vote: Cobalt

MFoS: mipe

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote, Vote Tarhalindur

Hi, this game. You are playing it. Get back here. You haven't posted since monday...DESPITE posting in certain ongoing bastard games.

That would be because I've had limited time until late yesterday, and what time I have had has been shunted towards a certain ongoing game.

On mipe: In a vacuum, I'd lynch mipe with little hesitation (there's a WIFOM reason for a little hesitation, but I will either explain it at a later date or not at all). However, UK's and DoS's responses indicate that we're better off leaving him be for the time being. (DoS's claimed info is consistent with my own.)

Cobalt:

he talked about liking wagons but was also afraid to put on a 4th vote? very weird.
and on that note, I'm off to a final.

Why do you refer to Boxman's actions as weird instead of scummy? That looks like a subconscious slip to me.

hm, tarh, why am I scummy for the 3rd vote? It was not a wagon vote, and it had explanation. It places Box at L-4. It was not until mipe and chamber voted that it became alarmingly fast.
And why should I switch to voting mipe if I think him and box are both scummy?

1) I've seen enough rapid rises in votes in the past that I'm very confident saying that one of {Cobalt, mipe, Chamber} is scum - because a rapid rise in votes like that almost ALWAYS has a scum on it. (Random Mafia 3 is a good example; a better example is ongoing.)

2) You failed to provide reasoning when voting Boxman, and your later reasoning is rather weak IMO (in addition to being a potential case of "vote now, make up reasoning later" - a classic scumtell).

3) Your tone when claiming mipe scum was more confident than your tone when wagoning Boxman ("mipe is scum" as opposed to "let's get this show on the road"), from which I concluded that you found mipe scummier than Boxman... but were still voting Boxman. That's not town behavior.

Now, for your more recent posts:

...that's a pretty well-developed theory for a D1 randomwagon.

IIoA...

<3 chamber

More IIoA...

JVW: I've decided mipe's claim is legit. I'm moving on to

unvote vote konowa

Konowa has been pushing mipe pretty hard and didn't unvote him. I don't like the focus. Konowa, reasons for keeping pressure on mipe?

Look at the tone here. I don't think Cobalt is sincerely scumhunting - this is the second time he's voted for a player for a single scummy action, and I see no evidence he's even trying to build a coherent picture of how a player is scum. Moreover, look at how he describes Konowa - "moving on"? That strongly suggests to me that Cobalt isn't sincerely scumhunting, just moving his vote to players based on scummy posts... and while I've seen town act like that before, it's still a scumtell (far too advantageous for scum).

Why isn't Cobalt dead yet?

Unvote if voting, Vote: Cobalt

[Tarhalindur]

I apologize for misreading this. Because it looks like you are saying that D1 is random.

At any rate, you still haven't even really given any strongly logical stances to flow from. You've voted, sure, but mostly for vague reasons and bandwagon lulz.

Bandwagon and votecount analysis is what I do best. It's in my interest to generate wagons, so I can build a picture of each player's voting activity.

And you can't provide at least some kind of reasoning and independent analysis while you try to generate wagons why, exactly?

I butchered what I was trying say *facepalm*
You were implicating that the only way that people would jump on you so quickly is because it's scum driven, and you are town. That still doesn't clear up a reason why a part of his argument, you are just trying to shift the blame to someone else voting you right now.

I was dismantling part of his argument. It is disingenuous for him to use a "three rapid votes" tell against me, then ignore three rapid votes

on

me. In addition, it makes no sense to use a "three rapid votes" tell on me when I was the

first

of the three and therefore had no foreknowledge of forming wagons.

1) Saying that I'm ignoring three rapid votes on you when I HAVEN'T POSTED IN THE THREAD since those votes appeared is also disingenuous, and dare I say outright craplogic.

2) Doesn't matter - you were one of three players who voted Boxman during the rapid series of votes for him. (Similarly, I should be coming under suspicion for being one of the three early fast votes on you.)

Unfortunately, the rest of what I have to say on the subject relies on a certain ongoing game that hasn't quite finished.

Also a general note: I really, really, really dislike someone using their meta to defend themselves. You've done it multiple times in your post.

Okay? Meta doesn't change that much. It's always consistent. If someone is playing a scum meta, you can use that as part of a case against them, and vice versa.

Uh, no.

One of my common tactics for acquiring meta evidence is a total read (need to run one on you, but haven't had time yet), wherein I skim ALL of a player's completed games in isolation read (up to about a page for veteran players) to look for any clear tendencies as a specific alignment. I've seen more than a few players who clearly changed meta at some point in their Mafia career with the technique.

Meta is a good tell (a player playing like they played as scum in a recent game is likely to be scum), but it is not static (and, more problematically, suffers from interpretation problems).

[Tarhalindur]

One of my common tactics for acquiring meta evidence is a total read (need to run one on you, but haven't had time yet),

As many Tar games as I've played and you HAVEN'T meta'd me?

I was talking about Cobalt there.

More later.

[Tarhalindur]

unvote;

vote mipe

He needs to die. UK if you need to target a time traveler, you can target me.
[/b]

You can answer this next monday when you get back. Do I need to die because how I act, or do I need to die because my role?

Why do you think you might potentially need to die because of your role?

(just because the mod is not prod checking does not mean people cannot contribute! Post!)

Because I'm timetraveler. I wouldn't be suprised if there would be a role where wincondition would be "Lyncher (Lynch 2 time travelers)" or something like that.

...

DoS, how sure are you that mipe is town given your rolebased? My rolebased, while consistent with yours, is also consistent with him being scum (as I noted earlier, I would have lynched him in a heartbeat if not for your claim), and while WIFOM suggests that scum wouldn't make that claim I'm not going to rule out that he's just stupid scum. (*cough*Medieval Mafia*cough*)

Only problem is, I have my doubts about mipe and Cobalt being on the same scumteam....

[Tarhalindur]

I would rather lynch the scummy person than test an ability with unknown effects on them UK. As far as why he needs to die, he is still coasting on the coattails of his reaction vote. He is evading my question to who he thinks cleared him. (Note: I will explain the importance of this after he answers me.) He is not actively scumhunting, instead he has called Cobalt out on being suspicious for fairly vague reasons. His 269 makes zero sense from a town perspective.

mipe, me wanting you dead has nothing to do with you claiming time traveler, as I have explained above. Who you think cleared you, by the way?

@malthusis - Re: Your 200, what answers were you talking about?
@Tar - What doubts do you have about a mipe/Cobalt scum team? I am beginning to think it has some merit. I think the interaction between the pair of them is quite scummy.

Mainly this post:

that was a hilariously fast wagon. looks like mipe is scum.

Maybe I'm just mistaken here, but I don't think that's a bus.

--

DoS, how sure are you that mipe is town given your rolebased? My rolebased, while consistent with yours, is also consistent with him being scum (as I noted earlier, I would have lynched him in a heartbeat if not for your claim)

Perhaps you have more information on the issue than I do? Given the information I have in my role I have no reason to believe he is scum. Though, rereading my role I can see how it might make sense.

That is probably very convoluted, but what it means is maybe you are right. I got caught up in the name thing I think, and his role info is consistent with a continuation of my role information, but since time travel is involved I don't know that I can truly say he isn't scum, and on that note given his continued scumminess

unvote, vote Mipe

I'm not certain whether elaborating is the best course of action at this time (give me a day or two to think it over).

At any rate:

Unvote, Vote: mipe
LOCK ON: mipe

.

(UK at least should recognize the implications of that Lock On.)

[Tarhalindur]

I'm waiting to see a) how many votes are on mipe and b) why he hasn't been dogpiled to lynch yet. See, I KNOW that the only way he's town is if there's more than one time-traveling John in the game.

Let's get with it, people.

[Tarhalindur]

...

and how are we to know if there is another one without a claim?

that feels rather... rolefishy, tar

...

No, it's me claiming FUCKING ROLEBASED that I know that at least one time-traveling version of John is scum. Where the hell did you get any ideas otherwise?

@Tar: Did you not see the not see the post where I said that there could be 2 Johns? Even my role comes to the same conclusion you came to, but it hints at the inclusion of multiple people named John.

Unless you think that there are at least two TIME-TRAVELING versions of John in the game, then mipe must be scum (since at least one time-traveling version of John must be scum, and if he's lying about his character name then he's scum anyways).

Tar: The fact that nobody else has claimed time-travelling John yet probably means that I'm the only one. And how would I have known to claim John who has timetraveled? Only ways I would know that is 1. I am that role or 2. I am cheater-ish role and got that role as info.

Thanks for claiming scum.

See, I don't think you're lying about being John. I think you're scum BECAUSE you claimed John and time traveler - I have extremely strong reason to believe that there is a time-traveling John in the game.

Hell, you should probably know about it, mister probable-Mafia-Godfather; remember that little conversation pregame, where I made it clear I wanted NOTHING to do with that little plan you proposed?

(I'll probably get killed for this claim, but oh well.)

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP:

Let's make this clear. As far as I'm concerned, I'm in the same position as a Cop with a guilty investigation. Either mipe is a "Miller" (read: a town time-travelling John) or scum. Got it?

[Tarhalindur]

Meh. Might as well halfclaim at this point.

I'm Stephen (or at least one Stephen; I should be the only non-time-traveling one, at any rate); while I'm no explicitly told this, I should be the mathematician who developed the equations necessary for the Box.

My inside information: I was approached (flavor, not actual role conversation) before the game by John (engineer friend). He claimed to be from a future where he and my future counterpart had successfully invented a time machine (the Box). Furthermore, he claimed that Box-enabled time travel was causing critical damage to the timeline. Then he tells me that the only way to fix it was to stuff everybody into the Box so that they couldn't activate the time machine... and asks for my help.

At this point, my character is horrified (apparently his proposed solution is tantamount to mass murder*) and flat-out refuses to help (I may be a friend, but not THAT much of a friend). In retaliation, future-John attempts to stuff me into the Box, but I'm able to get away and hide well enough that he can't find me.

The upshot? I flat-out know that a future version of John is scum. I also have a couple of other suspicions from this (scum kill probably uses the Box, and future versions of myself probably aren't Mafia).

I'd rather not claim abilities (or lack thereof) at this time (save for my lack of the Time Traveler ability).

Can we get around to lynching mipe now?

[Tarhalindur]

The problem is, I am also John, I invented the box but have never used it, and don't know any reason that I would according to my role.

Quick check - you're not a time traveler, right?

[Tarhalindur]

I have never traveled through time. Nor do I have an ability called time traveler

Then I don't see a problem - my rolebased specifically says that a TIME-TRAVELING version of John is scum.

Can we lynch Mipe now, please?

[Tarhalindur]

@tar

If you had to pick one word that seemed important what would it be?

Depends on what it's important to.

If you're referring to what I think you're referring to, however... "mathematician".

[Tarhalindur]

Malthusis needs to elaborate on DoS.

I need to reread for Cobalt links.

[Tarhalindur]

@julianvonwolfe:Malthusis: If I follow you correctly, you're saying that DoS is scum merely because he is named John? I don't think that's a good case. Tar said that future-John was scum, whereas DoS claimed John who had invented the box but not used it. This seems to me that he's not future-John.

*facepalm* Tar said Future John was scum, but I'm saying that mipe was the PRESENT John. Also, you could have realized that he might have lied? Mipe lied directly to my face about the question I asked him, why do you think scum DoS would be any different?

1) Time travel logic makes my head hurt.

2) As far as I can tell, the situation is as follows: "Future John" (aka a version of John that had time-traveled from the future aka mipe) contacted me (flavor, not actual PM) before the game started and tried to recruit me into what I think either is or was intended to be a Mafia faction. I refused, and narrowly avoided getting stuffed into the box by "Future John".

What I'm explicitly told is that I know that a time-traveling version of John is scum. As far as I can tell, this synchs up perfectly with your info. I have no idea whether there is a non-time-traveling version of John in the game (though given my own role, I'd expect it).

I had made 1 assumption I shouldn't have made: That both Johns can't be town. The fact that Tar had information that John would be SCUM piques my interest: I think we lynched the

PAST version of John, who didn't know about the box (and according to my role info, would be a serial killer)[/u[. But the FUTURE version of John would be Scum, because he wants to get rid of people because he thinks that are messing up the timeline. Hold the name claim until tomorrow, I am sure that DoS is scum and we should lynch him now.

Uh,

DragonsofSummer claimed "past John" (non-time-traveling, knows about the box but hasn't used it).

I'd say that DoS must then be scum, but mipe already flipped SK... either we've got two SKs running around (possible... but unlikely given that Cobalt kill) or you're misinterpreting the info.

-----

Now, what's concerning ME is from the flavor scene in the reveal:

"Whoa. This guys is fucked up. He must have gone through at least 30 or 40 trips. His scans are like jelly"

"Sean, I think he might be the original John. The first one."

"No shit. That might explain some things.

I don't think he can even process what the hell is going on.

"

THAT doesn't sound like the John that approached me in my pregame flavor. Maybe the flavor scene techs are wrong, or maybe original John had a brief moment of lucidity... but part of me thinks that there might be a SECOND time-traveling scum John floating around (presumably Mafia).

I mean, I expected mipe to flip Mafia until I actually saw the flip...

------

In other news:

1) Mass name claim is good and I support it wholeheartedly.

2) Observe the following posts:

Hm. Two Garys.

It's be hilarious if Cobalt killed UK, but whatever.

I'd like to hear from Malth about what he said yesterday about DoS.

On closer examination, I think Boxman subconsciously slipped here - I think he *KNOWS* that Cobalt was sent to make the Mafia kill (because he's part of the Mafia and knows who they sent to make the kill, perhaps?).

Competing wagons day 1 and both were scum. Awesome.

The name thing is weird though.

Hey look, blatantly obvious Sucks for Us! tell! From a player I don't associate with that tell as town, to boot!

Vote: Sajin
HoS: Boxman

[Tarhalindur]

...I'm under suspicion because I thought something might be funny? Seriously?

I swear, people think everything is suspicious these days. :I

I don't see why you as town would immediately think "hey, what if Cobalt killed UK", let alone how it's funny...

On the other hand, it took about three seconds of rereading the thread to remember Cobalt

was

the third vote on your wagon, and I don't think that was a bus (certainly didn't when I nailed him on it yesterday). You're still probably town... but I'm not as sure as I was yesterday.

----

In other news, I forgot the obvious third possibility for malthusis:

I'd say that DoS must then be scum, but mipe already flipped SK... either we've got two SKs running around (possible... but unlikely given that Cobalt kill) or you're misinterpreting the info.

The obvious third possibility? That malthusis is scum trying to fake rolebased info to look pro-town. First instinct says no, but I'm not going to rule it out just yet.

Unfortunately, I'm short on time, so the malthusis reread will wait until later.

[Tarhalindur]

I am John. I have the time traveler ability, though it seems singularly useless.

I'd like a full flavor claim out of you, jvw. Specifically... why did you time travel?

Chamber, Sajin: Same question goes to you (especially the latter).

As an aside, I'm seriously considering a full flavor massclaim at this point.

[Tarhalindur]

Looking over the massclaim...

- I'm almost CERTAIN there's a scum somewhere in the future Stephens. Possibly two, depending on exactly what the scumgroup is up to. (In particular, given how important John seems to be to the game I'm surprised there's more Stephen than John claims.)
- Now that I think about it, chamber's claim might have relevance to one nagging part of my flavor that I haven't been able to fit in...

chamber (and maybe malthusis, too): Are you told that you're the original Stephen (or Joe, for malthusis) via flavor or via an ability?

More once I hear the answer to that question.

[Tarhalindur]

Ray is indeed (apparently Past) Joe, my mason partner.

Also, time travel makes my head hurt - let's see if I've got this right...

Malth (F. Joe) and chamber (F. Stephen 1) both claim that a future John killed future Mary. chamber's claim differs only in the fact that this future John died soon after, and Malth took something from him. chamber also claims that Malth started the whole time travel business to fix this situation.

In the meantime, another version of F. John (mipe?) approached Tar (P. Stephen), asking him for help in essentially removing everyone else. Tar declined, escaping from F. John and now knowing him to be scum. I think it's fairly plausible that this F. John is mipe, although Tar and Malth think it may be one of the other Johns, DoS (P. John) or jvw (F. John 2).

Somewhere in here, we have a whopping TWO other Stephens, in addition to Tar and chamber. These are Sajin (F. Stephen 2) and Konowa (F. Stephen 3). In addition, we have 2 Garys (UK and Cobalt), although both are now dead and we aren't sure which one was Past or Future, and Ray (P. Joe), my mason partner. I appear to be the only person here without a future version due to my own future death at the hands of a John.

...Okay, I have no real clue what's going on.

Actually according to this post you have a somewhat good grasp of whats going on?

Also Tar, do you have any reason beyond the stated to believe that a future Stephen is scum? (I agree that it is probable, I am just curious if you have more thoughts on it)

Nope - I'm drawing on my knowledge of setup design here.

[Tarhalindur]

More thoughts on claims:

- The Stephen claims still don't add up to me... if John is so damn important to future events, why do there appear to be more Stephens than Johns? Doesn't make sense to me from a setup design standpoint - not with the rest of the stuff I've seen.

The obvious possibility here is that there's a lying John in the time-traveling Stephens (in which case that John just about has to be scum...), but if so then who's the third scum? Could be one of the other future Stephens, but then why didn't my doppelganger appear with the John who contacted me? Could be future Joe... but why the hell would John work with Joe? Besides, if mipe wasn't the John who contacted me I'm pretty confident that malthusis isn't scum with my John. Maybe John recruited his buddies after the incident with me? Or they didn't show themselves?

Most likely answer if this is the case is that one of Boxman/RayFrost is scum, but I can't be sure. (At this point, I'm seriously wishing I knew which of Cobalt/UK was the past timeline Gary... unless there's a third Gary lying his ass off somewhere...)

Alternate possibility, I suppose, is that there's only two Mafia and there's another neutral (second SK trying to set up a Vig claim?)... but who's the second SK? (Not malthusis, I don't think, though I'll run a question by Kinetic to double-check.)

- As for why I asked about original timeline... before he proposed his solution and I rejected it, that John that contacted me mentioned something along the lines of the original timeline causing the most damage to the timeline. What the hell this means, I have no idea. I thought nothing of it at the beginning... but after chamber and malthusis both claimed that they thought they were the original Stephen/Joe and mipe was referenced as the original John I'm starting to reconsider that.

It's also a point against mipe being the John that contacted me... unless he was just too addled to remember that he was the original John (can't rule that out).

----

Players:

Chamber: probably town. He's claimed an investigative role and his play today looks strongly pro-town. UK dying would be a point against him... except that UK softclaimed a power role yesterday, so it's entirely possible (if not probable) that the scum picked up on that and killed her for it. Moreover, chamber's defense today looks like town defense to me.

Konowa: Leaning scum. He pushed a Cobalt wagon early D1, but when I pushed it seriously later, he made the following comment:

Tar, can you expand on your read on Cobalt? I am not seeing it right now. Also, I think that Boxman should not claim yet. I say this because while some of the things he has said do not sit well with me, mipe is more likely to be scum at the moment, in my opinion, and I would rather run him up.

Konowa, why the flip from "Join the Cobalt wagon, I have treats" to not seeing my Cobalt read? I don't see any clear reason for it, and it reeks of scum distancing early.

Main point I see against Konowa being scum is that he consistently pushed mipe over several other wagons (especially Boxman) and that he's been asking questions. If we're dealing with a two-man Mafia, that's easy to explain; alternately, Konowa could have (correctly) believed that mipe was an SK, or that he wouldn't be called on pushing a mipe lynch if he was town.

Sajin: Neutra. His post at the beginning of the day is highly questionable ("

Sucks

Rocks for Us!") and a LOT of his content has been somewhat off-topic (IIoA, albeit a weak version). On the other hand, he DID push cases (mainly mipe); while he didn't actually vote Cobalt, from the way he was questioning I suspect that Sajin would have joined the wagon if not for the mipe wagon intervening.

Biggest thing nagging at me (yes, the little nagging voice) is that Sajin doesn't feel as aggressive and proactive as he usually does as town (I've modded town-Sajin a few times)... but the little nagging voice is also telling me he's likely town based on his questioning. I should probably total read to double-check if I get a chance (what with time constraints and site problems).

At the moment: If we're lynching a future Stephen, I think Konowa's our best shot. I'll look over non-Stephens (mainly JVW/Boxman) when I get a chance.

Konowa, Sajin: Who do you think is scum right now, and why?

Unvote, Vote: Konowa
Weak FoS: Sajin

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, slowly catching up and getting a handle on this.

See, I don't think you're lying about being John. I think you're scum BECAUSE you claimed John and time traveler - I have extremely strong reason to believe that there is a time-traveling John in the game.

Hell, you should probably know about it, mister probable-Mafia-Godfather; remember that little conversation pregame, where I made it clear I wanted NOTHING to do with that little plan you proposed?

(I'll probably get killed for this claim, but oh well.)

Tar, you seem to have targeted mipe because he was a time travelling John. I'll allow that you probably were not aware of the number of Johns in the game, and from your point of view there may have been only one. Is this why you were so certain that your pre-game conversation made mipe scum?

Uh, I had specific rolebased info that there was a time-traveling scum John in the game. Mipe claimed that specific combo. Why the hell WOULDN'T I push for his lynch, given that he just claimed a role name I knew was more likely to be scum than the average player and I've seen more than a few scum outed by claiming poorly in my time?

Not only did I have no way of knowing that there would be at least two time-traveling Johns in the game (while I have more info than most on the current situation, I have NO info on whatever started this whole mess), but I would have lynched him even if I HAD known that there were at least two time-traveling Johns in the game: that still would leave a 50% chance at MINIMUM (barring three future Johns and only one scum, in which case a 33% chance minimum) of mipe being scum, and lynching at random gives only a 25% chance of lynching scum unless there's 3 Mafia and an SK. (Side note: Why not pursue you immediately after your John claim, JVW? 1) There's too many Stephens in the works, and I suspect one of them may be a lying John, and 2) I'm not sure why you as scum would claim John... besides WIFOM reasoning, anyways.)

Of course, there was one other reason why I was so sure mipe was scum - his play was scummy as hell.

Now, JVW: What is your reason for making the quoted post?

[Tarhalindur]

Now, JVW: What is your reason for making the quoted post?

I went back to it since as mipe was SK, scum-Tar would have just as much an interest in lynching mipe as town-Tar would've. I found your post there especially important since it was instrumental in lynching mipe.

Does your info definitely imply to you that the John was mafia, or just non-town?

Malthusis, I think I've already made the full flavour claim. I have none. I'm an Engineer, with some abilities that have unknown effects. I have the time travel ability, but I've been pretty clear about what I know about that. I'm not told that I've time traveled, but I think I probably have.

Oh, I'll throw this out to the town. I can target somebody with an action that I know is unsafe, but I don't know what it'll do. I can target myself, if need be. Who does the town want something unsafe to happen to tonight? (I can also do something safe, but I tried that on myself last night and as far as I know nothing happened.)

1) My info doesn't explicitly state that a time-traveling John is Mafia, only that a time-traveling John is scum of some kind (were that not the case, I would have made that clear at the beginning of the day). The flavor behind it, however, suggests that the John in question was a Mafioso (if mipe was the John in question, he must have been trying to gather himself a Mafia faction and failed) - I don't see why that John would be trying to convince me to join him unless he was trying to build a Mafia faction of some kind.

[Tarhalindur]

I remember specifically that Kinetic as he was talking about his last game ran on this site specifically mentioned that his placement of scum among subgroups he made was designed to dispel metagame thinking of "he would not do that".

As such, I find scum hunting within a group a convenient excuse to overlook possible partners.

Tar this mostly applies to you. You are wanting to pressure Johns because of role info and because he is important in flavor? You want to pressure Stephens because there is 4? Please get out of the flavor arguments and make mafia arguments.

Again in WoT, Kinetic made several roles that had misleading info and he commented several times on how funny he thought it was watching people argue over red herrings while I myself and the other scum got to jump in on them and exploit it and fractured all of the town's trust in each other. I do not want a similar thing to happen this game.

This kind of time traveling game seems the perfect excuse for Kinetic to do the same thing.


I still dislike Malthusis' slip. I still think Boxman is scummy but thats more for coasting day 1.

Sajin, you're seriously trying to claim that I'm not scumhunting because I'm making arguments based on probable setups?

Have you read ANY of my completed games as a player?

Its been almost 48 hours without posts (and a fair bit longer sinse I posted) so how about we lynch malth already?

How about no?

[Tarhalindur]

He is resorting to flavor to lynch and inaccurately quoted his flavor when he claimed. He claimed Joe and being Mary's Girlfriend during mass name claim and I believe it was a slip. He was not willing to lynch based on Tar's claimed flavor day 1 yet is now willing to do so.

After reading people in iso, I can't find a better reason to vote anybody than this. Trying to analyse a D1 SK wagon is pretty hopeless.

So

Vote: Malthusis

And for my ability, I'm going to assume that it's a vig kill for the sake of argument. (That sounds dangerous enough.) Currently, based on flavour, it would make sense for me to target the other John - DoS.

What part of "we're not lynching malthusis today, thank you very much" do you not understand? I'd rather not explain why, but I will if I have to.

Unvote, Vote: julienvonwolfe

[Tarhalindur]

Explain, sirrah.

Do I really have to make it any more obvious I have rolebased of some form? (Not for the same reason I had rolebased on time-traveling Johns... not exactly, at least.)

And yes, my vote for JVW IS Chainsaw Defense. I consider it justified on the grounds that a) JVW is one of my three top candidates for scum right now (Konowa and Sajin being the others) and b) JVW just brought a player I'm 90% sure is town to L-1 while barning Sajin's reasoning.

[Tarhalindur]

He is resorting to flavor to lynch and inaccurately quoted his flavor when he claimed. He claimed Joe and being Mary's Girlfriend during mass name claim and I believe it was a slip. He was not willing to lynch based on Tar's claimed flavor day 1 yet is now willing to do so.

After reading people in iso, I can't find a better reason to vote anybody than this. Trying to analyse a D1 SK wagon is pretty hopeless.

So

Vote: Malthusis

And for my ability, I'm going to assume that it's a vig kill for the sake of argument. (That sounds dangerous enough.) Currently, based on flavour, it would make sense for me to target the other John - DoS.

What part of "we're not lynching malthusis today, thank you very much" do you not understand? I'd rather not explain why, but I will if I have to.

Unvote, Vote: julienvonwolfe

@Tar- Ok so what flavor justified reason are you using to vote here?

Are you not wanting to explain why you think JVW is scum or why you think Malth is town?

@Malth- You are at L-1. Claim?

I see no reason to respond to blatant rolefishing.

[Tarhalindur]

You know what? Let's put this out in the open.

There are only two ways I could see malthusis being scum. The first would require that I was targeted by a specific kind of ability last night. The second would require that a) mipe's John was the John that targeted me pregame and b) the actual answer to a question Kinetic answered evasively about is "no".

I will not elaborate further at this time.

[Tarhalindur]

Meh, we're not going to get a lynch otherwise.

Vote: Extension

[Tarhalindur]

@Konowa-

Sure. But Tar has NOT used mafia arguements for JVW that I could see in the thread. He is basically trying to pressure every John and stephen and using flavor as an excuse. Granted on some of those first few points though.

True that I did not vote for Cobalt. He is active enough that I can usually figure him out by end game and I was pushing for no content from Mipe at the time. Mipe posted little to no attacks on anyone. It was easy to see who I would rather lynch day 1, the guy posting no content.

And on another note, you voted Cobalt and then switched to Mipe as I recall. If you found my logic so sound on cobalt, why did you switch?

@boxman- Who is scum and why?

I call bullshit:

Explain, sirrah.

Do I really have to make it any more obvious I have rolebased of some form? (Not for the same reason I had rolebased on time-traveling Johns... not exactly, at least.)

And yes, my vote for JVW IS Chainsaw Defense. I consider it justified on the grounds that a) JVW is one of my three top candidates for scum right now (Konowa and Sajin being the others) and

b) JVW just brought a player I'm 90% sure is town to L-1 while barning Sajin's reasoning.

Even setting aside the fact that I consider setup arguments perfectly valid, that second underlined reason (specifically the barning part) looks like what you'd call a "mafia argument".

(I'm also severely uneasy about JVW

On the other hand... I'm starting to get curious. What's your REAL reason for not liking setup arguments? Because I don't buy your continued insistence that "flavor arguments =/= mafia arguments". You've had time to look at my completed games and realize that flavor arguments (and setup arguments in general) are a null tell for me.

See, I'm beginning to think that the real reason you're so adamant against setup arguments is because you're actually lying about your role name, and want to shut down discussion on the topic before I figure it out. Give me a GOOD reason why you'd try to shut down one of my primary avenues of scumhunting as town-Sajin, or you WILL find your head in the noose today.

Unvote, Vote: Sajin
HoS: JVW

[Tarhalindur]

I'd weakly prefer a Sajin lynch at this point, but malthusis's case is pretty much the one I was going to make (though I can summarize my version of the case much more simply: IIoA*) and we're close to deadline:

Unvote
Vote: julienvonwolfe

* - Information Instead of Analysis; the tell has a few forms, but posting without actual content/scumhunting is the strongest (especially in a single-faction game, which is extraordinarily likely given an SK flip).

[Tarhalindur]

No need to prod, I was just away today (snow day).

On lost status - I doubt it's scumbased at the moment... at most one of JVW/Sajin was scum (otherwise the game *should* be over, unless that poisoning kill is actually a second SK). If it was related to the scum kill, I'd guess that chamber would have been the one effective (kill method that didn't show up N2 is the one that killed Cobalt N1, so I'm guessing that the hidden kill method is poisoning... besides, why would scum kill Sajin? He was either scum himself or a very likely mislynch.), and the possibility of a "no reveal while 1 Mafioso left" mechanic can be discounted given that chamber flipped normally.

Note: While I suspect that one of {JVW, Sajin} was scum, we can't be sure about that. Worst case scenario would mean that today is LyLo... massclaim may be in order. Thoughts?

Players: From where I'm sitting, our scum have to be somewhere in {Konowa, RayFrost, Boxman} (not DoS, I don't think, and almost certainly not malthusis). Let me get a reread on those three.

[Tarhalindur]

Looking over Boxman/Konowa/RayFrost:

Boxman:

Points towards being town: Cobalt was the third vote on his D1 wagon. That's pretty much it AFAICT.

Points towards being scum: NO scumhunting (seriously, take a look at his play, it's nearly as bad as JVW's play) for the entire play; he's largely lurked through the game, and what he has posted has consisted mostly of summaries of known setup information. Then there's his "Hm. Two Garys. It's be hilarious if Cobalt killed UK, but whatever. " line from the beginning of D2, and the fact that he immediately concluded that the person referred to in my flavor must have been mipe (would be absolutely DAMNING if we somehow prove that there is a time-traveling John in the Mafia, as it is it's merely highly questionable). Also, he's one of the neighbors... I'm leaning towards one of them being scum based on the numbers (especially if either JVW or Sajin was scum-John).

Minor flavor point against Boxman being scum: Past-Mary and future-John on the same scumteam? That seems kinda odd... then again, it's a Kinetic game, and it would be hilarious.

Konowa:

Points towards being town: Some of Konowa's questioning D1 looks pro-town to me (especially re: UK). Some signs of scumhunting, especially D1 (mipe) and early D2 (Boxman).

Points towards being scum: Voted Cobalt in random stage then said he didn't see the reasoning for my Cobalt vote later D1 (major distancing tell). Showed a drop in activity after the SK was lynched (could indicate that Konowa was specifically SK-hunting D1, a major scumtell, though this is by no means the only possible reason).

Side notes: I'm starting to get really annoyed with the no-reveal on JVW and especially Sajin - knowing the latter's flip in particular would HUGELY affect my read on Konowa (both by knowing whether he was actually a Stephen and what his alignment was).

RayFrost:

Points towards being town: Cobalt's D1 push on RayFrost reads as deflection, defense during Cobalt D1 attack reads town, clear scumhunting after D1 (starting with the reread post D2).

Points toward being scum: No clear signs of scumhunting D1. Is the other Neighbor, and his apparent attack on Boxman today could be due to him wanting to get a vulnerable townie lynched to win (though that would require two living scum, which seems unlikely given how scummy JVW and Sajin were).

Side note: Cobalt flipping scum means his third vote on the Cobalt wagon D1 is a null tell, not a scum tell.

----

Conclusions:
- Boxman is very, very likely scum and needs to die today.
- If Boxman is, somehow, not the last scum, I'd guess Konowa is instead... he's the last claimed Stephen, and his play hasn't been particularly pro-town.
- RayFrost is probably town; he's been proactive and generally a solid scumhunter.

Vote: RayFrost

[Tarhalindur]

I call bullshit on your vote because you are voting somebody you claim to be prob town.

Can you sort out how the fook that makes any sense?

... Yeah, I accidentally typed RayFrost instead of Boxman, forgot to preview my post and was busy doing something else for an hour.

Let's fix that, shall we?

Unvote, Vote: Boxman

[Tarhalindur]

btw, how does me being an unconfirmed neighbor lead to marks on me-scum?

1) Because I consider neighborhoods slightly more likely to include scum than random groups of players of a size equal to the neighborhood's size.
2) Because my setup paranoia is arguing that there's a Mafioso in the neighbors.

It's not a strong scumtell, but I consider it a scumtell nonetheless.

[Tarhalindur]

The quoted post... take it in context.

Short post is short.

JVW being lynched and Sajin dying last night and game not ending re-affirms my belief that

Boxman is likely the last scum.

vote Boxman

@Boxman: Who is scum?

Boxman is inactive.

He's definitely not the last scum.

Okay, THAT's got my attention.

RayFrost: Do you believe Boxman/GLaDOS is scum with a surviving partner? This question is extremely important.

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, THAT's got my attention.

RayFrost: Do you believe Boxman/GLaDOS is scum with a surviving partner? This question is extremely important.

It's the

only

possibility of boxman/GLaDOS being scum at this point, imo.

Boxman was away, so he couldn't have done the kill.

Yes, I get that you've concluded that Boxman/GLaDOS can only be scum if there is a second surviving Mafioso (not strictly the case, but any alternatives require unlikely things such as a compulsive-kill Mafia or a second SK... and since we've got a day before LyLo if GLaDOS is the last scum we don't have to worry about such possibilities until tomorrow anyways). That wasn't the question I was asking.

What I'm asking is whether, given what you know at the moment, you think GLaDOS is town or scum. There's a reason for me asking, and I'll explain after you answer the actual question.

[Tarhalindur]

I think boxman is scum, I think GLaDOS is town.

Currently leaning towards scum, but not completely certain on that.

Let me get this straight:

You think that Boxman's player slot is likely scum AND that Boxman can't be the only surviving scum (even if you don't think that's the case now, you apparently did at the beginning of the day). That implies that you think two players are scum from the same faction.

Last I checked, there are only six players alive (barring shenanigans with the missing players). If two of them are Mafia, that means that WE ARE IN LYLO.

However... I don't see this conclusion reflected in your play today. You haven't voted, admittedly - but you also haven't taken any of the usual LyLo actions (you didn't comment on me bringing up the possibility of LyLo earlier, you haven't said anything about a full massclaim [aka THE first action you take at LyLo if you haven't already], you haven't been warning players to be cautious about voting, etc.).

That doesn't add up to me. In fact, this line of reasoning is why I started questioning you so suddenly in the first place (to lock down your position on Boxman).

Unvote

while I think this over - I was assuming a single surviving scum when I voted Boxman (hadn't realized that he'd flaked the site). I now have to seriously consider the possibility of a Konowa/RayFrost scumteam (since pushing for Boxman early would make sense if you're part of a two-man team that doesn't include Boxman).

Also, to all players: Post your thoughts on massclaim in your next post.

[Tarhalindur]

Screw it, it's probably LyLo and I've already claimed anyways (though I don't think anyone actually noticed), so I'm just going to make it clear now.

Remember this post from Day 1? Yeah, this one:

...

My inside information: I was approached (flavor, not actual role conversation) before the game by John (engineer friend). He claimed to be from a future where he and my future counterpart had successfully invented a time machine (the Box). Furthermore, he claimed that Box-enabled time travel was causing critical damage to the timeline. Then he tells me that the only way to fix it was to stuff everybody into the Box so that they couldn't activate the time machine... and asks for my help.

At this point, my character is horrified (apparently his proposed solution is tantamount to mass murder*) and flat-out refuses to help (I may be a friend, but not THAT much of a friend). In retaliation, future-John attempts to stuff me into the Box, but I'm able to get away and hide well enough that he can't find me.

...

Take a close look at that second paragraph again:

... In retaliation, future-John attempts to stuff me into the Box, but I'm able to get away and

hide

well enough that he can't find me...

Why yes, I AM for all practical purposes a Hider. (While it's a bit odd that I actually get to know what my power does from a setup standpoint, it seems to hold up from a flavor standpoint - time travel seems to induce memory loss, and since I haven't time traveled I haven't lost my memory.) I'm told that if John catches me (by me hiding with the person he kills or inadvertently hiding with him or anyone working with him), he'll kill me; this is the primary reason why I've assumed the existence of a second, Mafia John (because only dying if you hide behind the SK doesn't make sense to me, especially given the mention of possible people working with him).

I hid behind malthusis N1 and DoS N2. I rather doubt that either is Mafia at this point, since if either is scum I should be dead right now (barring a protection on the relevant night or "only scum John is SK" shenanigans).

As such, from where I'm sitting if there are two Mafiosos surviving then one of the Neighbors is almost CERTAINLY scum. (If not, I'd lean towards Konowa being the last scum at this point.)

Konowa, DoS, and malthusis need to fullclaim (preferably in that order); RayFrost and GLaDOS appear to have already fullclaimed and thus don't need to again.

More later, I'm short on time at the moment.

[Tarhalindur]

... Processing ...

To summarize:

From Tarhalindur's point of view, if we are in LyLo then there is probably a Mafia John alive, which would mean Konowa is that Mafia John. If we are not in LyLo, then there is substantial evidence that I am not scum because of Boxman's absence.

Either way, Tarhalindur should not be voting for me today unless he retracts his Mafia John theory.

GLaDOS, pay attention to my posts please - I unvoted you earlier, after RayFrost brought up that Boxman appeared to have flaked the site (which I had not realized until then).

Also, pay attention to my flavor claim D1. The John that was after me claimed to have traveled through time. DoS has very specifically claimed not traveling through time. Given that and his D2 play, I decided that hiding behind him was the least risky prospect (malthusis was a likely NK, I don't especially trust either neighbor/mason and you were decent NK targets anyways, chamber had claimed power, Sajin was at the top of my scum list and thus a Bad Idea, Konowa was decently likely to be scum, and I can't exactly hide behind myself).

As for Mafia John, I see three possibilities:
1) Konowa is the Mafia John (falseclaiming future Stephen).
2) JVW was the Mafia John, and there is one surviving Mafioso.
3) Sajin was the Mafia John (falseclaiming future Stephen), and there is one surviving Mafioso.

On balance I consider the latter two possibilities more likely, but since Konowa all-but-has to be scum if two scum are alive (he's scummy and I don't see two scumbags pulling a neighbor gambit) and we shouldn't lose today if Konowa is town (since from where I'm sitting that requires that there be only one surviving Mafioso) he's probably the best lynch right now.

[Tarhalindur]

... Processing ...

Tarhalindur, I too ask that you pay attention to my posts and the current situation. Regardless of the fact that you have unvoted me, I was and still am the only person who currently has votes in a possible LyLo situation. Upon replacing into such a situation, my first task is to both get and keep votes off of me. My post was designed for two purposes: to make it clear why you in particular should not revote me, and to make it clear that others should not vote for me based on your reasoning. My second task is now to reread the game and to ask questions so I can find scum.

As for your second point, I think somebody lying about the "time traveler" ability (in this case, DragonsofSummer) is just as likely as somebody lying about one's name. My point is that if I had a role that told me I would die if I hid behind the wrong John, I would certainly not hide behind the only remaining claimed John in the game.

Furthermore, I am not sure that we should be relying as heavily on flavor as we appear to be relying -- I have no idea whether I am a past or future Mary, for example, and even if I did know I fail to see how that could definitively tell anybody anything.

That said, I have a few questions about your claim.

1.)

Are you forced to hide, or can you choose to hide behind nobody at all?

2.)

What happens if you targeted by something other than a nightkill and you are hiding behind somebody? In particular, suppose you are targeted by:
-->

a.)

Cop
-->

b.)

Tracker
-->

c.)

Doctor

3.)

Suppose you targeted the John in question (or somebody he "works with") but you were role-blocked. What result?

4.)

What result if John were to have a nonkilling ability, and he targeted you?

~~~

I am beginning my reread now.

On hiding behind DoS: I find it ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE, given the importance that John appears to have in this setup and the fact that less important names (Stephen, Joe, and Mary all come to mind... probably also Gary, but we can't be sure), that there isn't a non-time-traveling John in the setup. DoS claimed non-time-traveling John and was not counterclaimed, and I KNOW the John hostile to me is a time traveler.

Also keep in mind that I'm nearly certain the presence or absence of the time traveler ability appears to be testable (see UncertainKitten D1, for instance), so there's a reason for scum NOT to lie about their time traveling status - one that the scum would have known of by the time of massclaim.

So no, I didn't think it was plausible that DoS was lying about not time-traveling. I still don't think it's plausible, as a matter of fact.

Answers:

1) I can choose not to hide (however, considering that I had claimed rolebased on malthusis D2 and led the drive on Cobalt D1, not hiding last night seemed like a spectacularly bad idea to me).
2) My ability mentions only kills; I'd assume it doesn't stop other abilities, but I'll fire off a question to Kinetic to double-check.
3) Again, I'm not explicitly told anything; I'd assume the ability fails and I don't die, but I'll double-check with Kinetic.
4) Again, I haven't been told how abilities other than kills interact with my role; I'll ask Kinetic about this, too.

[Tarhalindur]

2) My ability mentions only kills; I'd assume it doesn't stop other abilities, but I'll fire off a question to Kinetic to double-check.
3) Again, I'm not explicitly told anything; I'd assume the ability fails and I don't die, but I'll double-check with Kinetic.
4) Again, I haven't been told how abilities other than kills interact with my role; I'll ask Kinetic about this, too.

Update:
2) Kinetic's reply indicates that I was in error; most abilities targeting me (I've asked for elaboration on that "most", but doubt I'll get any) when I hide fail to resolve, but if somebody uses such an ability that would be blocked by my hide on the person I hide behind then I am affected by that ability as well (i.e, if somebody doc-protects the person I'm hiding behind then I'm doc-protected as well).
3) As I thought, if I'm roleblocked then my hide ability is prevented.
4) See 2.

Now that I've received clarification from Kinetic:

First, yes I consider there to be only one scum left. This partially has to do with my role.

I am Stephen. I am a time-traveling survivor hider. I came back in time to make money off of the market and made a fortune, now I just have to survive to spend it.

N1 I hid behind DoS.
N2 I hid behind Ray.
Non-kill actions are forwarded to the person I am hiding behind.
Kills are canceled.

Now, I am no way a setup expert, but I personally believe that two scum left is too many. We have already had one mafia and one sk flip. Even though we do not know JVW's flip, I feel confident in the fact that he was scum. Two scum remaining would mean five scum in a twelve player game, which I think is too many.

Anyways, my belief that there is only one mafia left, Boxman flaking, and town reads on Ray, DoS, and malth means that Tar is the last mafia.

unvote;

vote Tarhalindur

BULLSHIT.

1) You claimed Survivor. In a Mini Theme game where an SK has already flipped, where there have been no-reveals, and where a fair number of town power roles didn't know what their role did. And yet you're assuming that there was a three-man Mafia group, when I would expect a two-man group instead if you were actually telling the truth. Not buying it.
2) You oh-so-conveniently claimed a role that happens to counterclaim the role of the one player in this game I KNOW is Town... when you would almost certainly be lynched today without such a claim. CLASSIC scum behavior, especially if you have a surviving scumbuddy.
3) You got your Hider claim details wrong (I seriously doubt there are two kinds of Hider in the game). See above for details.
4) Your play doesn't add up if you're actually a Survivor Hider. If you are actually a Survivor, why be so active N1? Why be active and push for lynches D1, then vanish immediately after the SK went down? That's Mafia behavior, not Survivor behavior.

As for offering yourself as a UK target N1... while it could make sense as a Survivor trying to prove his ability, it makes much more sense as a Mafioso who is either untargetable or part of a group with a roleblock (I'd suspect the former - makes too much sense to try to bait a claimed power role into wasting its power while the Mafia killed her for it).

Oh yes, and point 5:

5) You claim to be a time traveler who knows what his role does. Every other time traveler we've seen this game (with the possible exceptions of malthusis and the two unclaimed players) have NOT known what their ability did (due to the memory-damaging effects of time travel). You're claiming that you are unique in that regard, and just HAPPEN to have a role that could counterclaim mine?

Yeah right. You're Mafia (probably untargetable Godfather of some kind*, but a Mafia group with a Roleblocker or the like isn't out of the question... especially if DoS is Mafia after all), and you've got a surviving partner somewhere.

* - though why Kinetic would screw over the Mafia like that I'm not sure.

Vote: Konowa
LOCK ON: Konowa

[Tarhalindur]

EBWODP:

2) Kinetic's reply indicates that I was in error; most abilities targeting me (I've asked for elaboration on that "most", but doubt I'll get any) when I hide fail to resolve, but if somebody uses such an ability that would be blocked by my hide on the person I hide behind then I am affected by that ability as well (i.e, if somebody doc-protects the person I'm hiding behind then I'm doc-protected as well).

Incidentally, this means that my post 466 was somewhat in error (the role type I was thinking of - protective - would have needed to target malthusis to prevent me from dying from a mishide, not me)... but I didn't realize that at the time, due to thinking that only kills were blocked.

* - though why Kinetic would screw over the Mafia like that I'm not sure.

Typo - meant to write SK, as I hope is obvious from the context.

[Tarhalindur]

GLaDOS, keep in mind that Kinetic has indicated that my ability blocks "most" other abilities, not all; I've asked Kinetic for elaboration on what exactly gets through the hide, but he hasn't answered back yet (and he might not be willing to answer).

In particular, I'm guessing based on his previous answers that roleblocking isn't affected by hiding (blocking a person I'm hiding behind does nothing, blocking me stops my hide) based on how he answered my question about what happens if I'm roleblocked. (I've fired off a different question based on the possibility of redirecting roles targeting me, as well.)

And I agree, there's no way in hell both Hiders are telling the truth... hence why I've voted Konowa.

[Tarhalindur]

Kinetic got back to me, and offered a better explanation of how my hide works (specifically, that "most abilities" part).

Basically, the abilities my hide blocks are ones whose flavor requires direct physical access to me (such as Doctors and killing roles, but any ability where the flavor of the role requires that the person have access to me) work as mentioned previously.

Roles which do NOT require direct access to me (such as almost all investigations; Kinetic has clarified that this includes Trackers and Watcher in addition to normal investigations) function normally when targeted at me; for example, a Cop can investigate me and gets normal results, but would not get to investigate me by investigating the person I hide behind. (A Watcher could also see me if he targeted the person I hide behind.)

Roleblockers and redirectors are special cases. Roleblockers can block me before I can successfully hide, thus preventing my hide from working, but cannot stop me from successfully hiding by blocking who I'm hiding behind (since I've already hidden); likewise, redirectors can force me to change target by targeting me, but not by targeting who I'm hiding behind.

As I understand it, this means that roleblockers, redirectors, and most investigative roles can target me, while just about everything else is prevented from targeting me but can affect me by targeting the person I hide behind. (Given that we've seen a dead SK and two kills per night, I suspect that protective and killing roles may actually comprise most of the abilities in the setup.)

----

In other news, unless I'm missing something there is no possible better lynch than Konowa today.

Consider the numbers. If Konowa is neutral (other than SK, and SK can be discounted given that mipe flipped SK) and there are two Mafiosos, they can effectively win the game immediately provided that Konowa is willing to work with them and they can block or kill the vig Night 3 (force no-lynch today, kill overnight - as long as the kill doesn't fail, Day 4 must begin with at most 4 alive, of which one is Konowa and a second is Mafia; force a second no-lynch and kill another townie for the win). As such, there would be little reason for a Mafioso who has a surviving partner other than Konowa to claim as such.

Since we've seen no sign of this and a town victory is nearly impossible if Konowa is neutral and two scum are alive, then we can ignore that possibility. We can still win if either a) Konowa is neutral and there is one Mafioso left or b) Konowa is one of two surviving Mafiosos.

In either of those situations, Konowa is the best lynch - we KNOW that he's not town (since he claimed as such), so we're guaranteed a lynch on a non-town player that doesn't lose the game for the town. There's no other player in the game for which this is true.

Massclaim first, but Konowa MUST die today.

[Tarhalindur]

Now I am very worried. While lynching Konowa may be good plan, now I'm worried that we may be in Lylo. Like I've said before, my information opints to either DoS or JVW being scum. JVW was just town confirmed. DoS has been using his "confirmed" status as a free ride throught this game. Due to the latest revelations, I'm inclined to believe that he is scum.

I'm not taking any chances. I'm going to

Vote: DoS

.

malthusis, quit being an idiot. At MINIMUM, Konowa is lying about being a Hider* (he's got his details wrong), and he's probably lying about his alignment as well.

* - After thinking it over, it's *possible* that Konowa as Survivor would try to false-counterclaim the weakest-looking player in order to buy himself a day, especially when the false counterclaim would probably keep away the Mafia kill. It's not likely - he's nearly certainly Mafia - but it's possible.

----

Side note: These JVW events brought to mind a possibility that I hadn't really considered earlier, namely there might be two Mafiosos alive other than Konowa who decided not to try to force a no-lynch in order to play it safe (perhaps they had inside warning that players might be coming back?). Regardless, lynching Konowa removes a neutral (who should be assumed to vote with scum at LyLo) at worst and a Mafioso at best, so since we can be nearly sure that malthusis is telling the truth about Sajin coming back (he claimed the Cobalt kill and was not counterclaimed) I see no reason not to finish Konowa off.

[Tarhalindur]

Oh right, RayFrost's vote was the hammer - never mind about being stupid, malthusis, since RayFrost was smart for you.

[Tarhalindur]

Huh. So Konowa lied about being a Hider (I checked with Kinetic again, if he was actually a Hider his hide should have worked in the way I described yesterday) but not about being a Survivor. That seems kinda stupid to me, but it's not something to worry about now. (Well, except for making sure I don't get mislynched because a Survivor lied about his ability...)

----

Speaking of hiding, I decided that my best option last night was NOT to hide (and thus not risk accidentally killing myself).

----

Worst case scenario, there are two surviving scum (one is not out of the question given a Survivor flip, but given the possibility of two we should assume that there are two for the time being). We are probably in LyLo.


From where I'm sitting:
- We can no longer rule out GLaDOS being scum; even in the best case scenario for Night 2 (i.e, Sajin is scum) the Mafia should have been able to kill despite Boxman being inactive - even if the scumteam was Boxman and Sajin, I'd guess that Sajin would have been able to send Boxman to kill.

Despite that, GLaDOS's play yesterday looks very pro-town to me (though I need to read past PJ games to be sure); I'm loathe to lynch him today.

- RayFrost still reads incredibly pro-town to me for reasons I explained yesterday; despite my suspicion that one of the neighbors may be scum, I'm pretty sure he's town.

- I still think Sajin is likely scum (I'll build the full case again in a bit, when I have more time). The only real mitigating factor is that I don't know whether he could be part of a two-person scumgroup (due to not being clear on how malthusis's knockout drug worked).

- I am reluctantly forced to conclude that DoS is likely scum after all (and I just got roleblocked N2). He's been horribly inactive, hasn't scumhunted at ALL since D2, and his claimed rolename is John (not conclusive but concerning).

At first glance, I support either a Sajin or a DoS lynch today. More later when I have more time.

HoS: Sajin
HoS: DragonsofSummer

[Tarhalindur]

Post to avoid replacement (

V/LA until further notice - Illness

.)

I'll try to have that case on Sajin up later tonight, but can't guarantee it.

[Tarhalindur]

V/LA due to illness ended Sunday; V/LA due to midterms ended today (decided not to bother posting an update, since it was just changing the reason for the V/LA).

Case should be up tomorrow at latest.

[Tarhalindur]

Why Tarhalindur is not scum:

- I literally haven't seen ANY case on me other than Konowa's flip. He was a Neutral Survivor who clearly thought that I was the last scum and that he could get me lynched by counterclaiming (so from his perspective falseclaiming Hider would probably allow him to win - or at least not get lynched that day). I fail to see how we can conclude that Konowa was trueclaiming everything and not just his alignment. (I mean, he was stupid enough to claim SURVIVOR when he thought there was 1 scum left...)

Moreover, I pushed like hell for a Cobaltscum lynch D1 (only switching to mipe due to rolebased) and have all-but-proved rolebased information.

Why Sajin IS scum:

Competing wagons day 1 and both were scum. Awesome.

The name thing is weird though.

Scummiest post of the entire game - "Sucks for Us!" is still a pretty damn reliable scumtell, though not quite as guaranteed as it once was.

I am Future Joe, Mary's girlfriend. I used the Box because sometime between now and the future, John (hinted at being the past version) brutally murders Mary. I came back to prevent that.

I have a couple of questions:

1: How do you know you are the future version?

2: Mary's girlfriend? Correct me if I am wrong, but you are male, yes?

Vote: Malthusis

@Chamber- Did you try and stop Mary's death?

This vote looks badly forced to me...

I remember specifically that Kinetic as he was talking about his last game ran on this site specifically mentioned that his placement of scum among subgroups he made was designed to dispel metagame thinking of "he would not do that".

As such, I find scum hunting within a group a convenient excuse to overlook possible partners.

Tar this mostly applies to you. You are wanting to pressure Johns because of role info and because he is important in flavor? You want to pressure Stephens because there is 4? Please get out of the flavor arguments and make mafia arguments.

Again in WoT, Kinetic made several roles that had misleading info and he commented several times on how funny he thought it was watching people argue over red herrings while I myself and the other scum got to jump in on them and exploit it and fractured all of the town's trust in each other. I do not want a similar thing to happen this game.

This kind of time traveling game seems the perfect excuse for Kinetic to do the same thing.


I still dislike Malthusis' slip. I still think Boxman is scummy but thats more for coasting day 1.

This post is a) craplogic (I like to analyze flavor/setup regardless of alignment, so Sajin's claim that I haven't been using Mafia arguments is crap - and he's had plenty of time to look over my past games and reanalyze/retract) and b) half-hearted (note the total lack of voting or any indication that Sajin actually thought I was scum despite his apparently belief that I was acting in a scummy manner).

Hell, looking over Sajin in ISO... I don't see ANY players who Sajin has EVER made a concerted attack on during the course of the game (even his attack on mipe never really had teeth). That's scummy as hell (REEKS of scum trying to avoid attention). It's also not how I remember Sajin playing in Legacy of the Ancients (where he was town); he was far more proactive there.

In fact, now that I think about it Sajin's claimed distaste for flavor/setup arguments ALSO doesn't fit with his play in Legacy of the Ancients...

I can post finally. To answer any questions about it:

Kinetic PMed me saying I was unconscious and I would rejoin the game at the start of day 3 (this was done at the start of day 2). So I knew Malthusis was telling the truth about that.

First off my reactions to some of yesterday's events:

Tar- I would love to see your non game flavor analysis from you. Also, your role is very complicated and I highly doubt 2 hiders in a setup and I see no incentive for konowa to lie, especially considering he claimed survivor. And I really do not believe that the knock out poison syringe could of been applied to 2 people (which I think it would of according to your role). This really irked me that no one brought this up. Explain.

@Rayfrost- I know a game in fairly recent memory where you did not breadcrumb your private chat early on at all. Why is this game different?

@GLaDOS- Welcome to the game! Thanks for replacing in. Why do you want me to full claim? I would like you to articulate this beyond "because everyone else did". Also I would like to know how many mafia you think we are dealing with.

@DoS- What are your reads? Who is town, who is scum? I just ISOed you, you have not posted thoughts on anyone except for right when you joined a lynch wagon each time.

I need to reread a few things, but those are the major questions I have from yesterday.

Funny how you accuse me of "not using mafia arguments" while using flavor arguments... and then turn right around and attack me using nothing except setup and flavor arguments. Hypocrisy much?

HoS: Sajin

Vote: Deadline Extension

[Tarhalindur]

@Tar- There is a large difference between setup speculation and setup knowledge. Generally it is assumed town tell the letter of the truth about information thus increasing the information usable later on in the game. A cop who says he received 2 innocents, a roleblocker who says he blocked someone is all setup knowledge. Setup speculation is wanting to lynch/not lynch someone because "3 roleblockers could not exist" or "The mod would not put that in the setup". These are 2 very different concepts at least in my eyes.


I disagree about my vote being forced. The exact part you quoted was when I voted him for pressure because I did not like what he had just said. I added on to it more later.

Considering most of the town was arguing for the double voter cannot be scum(because all double voters are town!) in LoTA and I was insisting that it was (with a track on the double voter to a kill), I do not see the comparison you are trying to make at all. Besides I am not opposed to all setup speculation. But basing reasoning just off of that is horrible. As I recall your reason for voting JVW was one instance of barning and speculation.


Now Tar, I have a question for you. You claimed to have rolebased information on a John being scum. Yet you hid behind DoS. Now its perfectly fine for a hider to do that....if they breadcrumb that they would do so. I was looking and I could not find any sort of breadcrumb for that targeting. Explain your perceived risk of doing that, Tar.


@Glados- I am Stephen, A Mathematician. I helped John build the box. I saw Mary die in front of me and decides I needed to help stop it. I am a timetraveler. My last ability is that I cannot be killed by any means.

It does not really make any sense from my perspective for me to have claimed. The only argument that I could see for it is if Malthusis was playing to an alternate win con and was thus lying. But no one even touched that argument and instead favor mass claim for the sake of claiming. And I find that stupid. But go figure everyone else wanted to know my role.

Okay, this post is damning.

1) Sajin claimed a bulletproof variant. First rule of massclaim: lynch all bulletproofs on sight. (They're almost NEVER actually town bulletproofs... the only games I've seen Town Bulletproofs in in the last ~2 years have been games I've modded myself.)

2) Sajin appears to have claimed unlynchable as well... which means running Sajin up to lynch threshold has no possible downside AT ALL, since either Sajin is telling the truth (and won't be lynched by being run up to lynch threshold) or is lying (and therefore scum).

Of course, he's not actually telling the truth, because a completely unkillable role is so broken that the only possible win condition it can have is no win condition at all. (Unless he meant to only claim bulletproof townie... but that's such a damning claim on its own that I'm comfortable with a vote regardless.)

And even if he somehow *is* telling the truth, there's no harm in running him up to lynch threshold - because Sajin claimed unlynchable.

Vote: Sajin
LOCK ON: Sajin

[Tarhalindur]

True - I've been assuming the "vote count reset" or "nothing happens" unlynchable versions, but if it's the "if you would be lynched instead the day ends in No Lynch"...

Doesn't matter, the combination of bulletproof claim and the sheer brokenness of full invulnerability to kills (including lynches) is enough for me to keep my vote. Hell, the bulletproof claim alone is enough given his behavior this game.

[Tarhalindur]

Short on time until tonight, but in the interests of not having a No Lynch:

Vote: Extension

Also, Mod: Given the formatting of malthusis's flip in the front post, should we be able to tell whether malthusis's Vengeance win condition was an additional win condition (both win conditions must be fulfilled to win) or an alternate win condition (either win condition can be fulfilled to win)? If so, which is it?

Alternate.

[Tarhalindur]

Vote: RayFrost

"It's over. Stand down, humans."

(Precedent from the first vote count of the game [Cobalt's vote on JVW, Konowa's vote on Cobalt) and Konowa's vote on me D3 says that the colon is not necessary for a vote to be counted - otherwise I wouldn't be making this post.)

[Tarhalindur]

Some notes, I was laughing so hard when Tar was talking about claiming Hider. I'm a little flabbergasted that it was bought hook line and sinker.

Hi. I was attacking his claim because it made no sense originally, and going into Day Four

both

RayFrost and I thought Tarhalindur was scum. A big reason he avoided being lynched Day Three is because Konowa claimed Survivor Hider instead of lying and claiming Town Hider. The reason I changed my mind last night was because I think Tarhalindur should have just attacked DragonsofSummer yesterday, and should have talked with Sajin to make sure he didn't claim something stupid (like unkillable).

My choice to go ahead and finish the Sajin bus was based on three factors:
1) Going after DoS would be the OBVIOUS action for Tarscum (as you correctly identified).
2) My read on the remaining players was that going after the obvious mislynch (DoS) was probably just going to get myself (I was STRONGLY expecting to be the D4 lynch) and Sajin killed for the lose, especially given...
3) it would look damn suspicious for both myself and Sajin if I DIDN'T go 100% after Sajin given how strongly I was bussing him D2.

As for Sajin's claim - I COULDN'T talk to Sajin N3. I probably should have thought about warning him against stupid claims, but the last I had been able to check he was leaning towards a role name cop claim... and I didn't think a scumbag would be STUPID enough to claim UNK in the modern meta. (Seriously, MILLER is a better falseclaim currently... and miller falseclaims are pretty bad anyways.)

I am displeased with the balance of this game. The large majority of the Town didn't know what their roles did. Some of the town powers were just decidedly anti-town -- anything that "removes" a player from the game just helps scum. If you remove a scum, they have an excuse to get away with doing nothing. If you remove a townsperson, the town gets one less vote to throw around. The "Doctor" role who didn't even know he was a Doctor, in particular, I argue is just plain not helpful.

You basically put all the town eggs in a couple baskets, and then smashed those eggs by adding a Limited Reveal nature to the game.

The killing fact here is indeed, like I thought, the fact that there were six roles with anti-town agendas out of twelve players. This game

might

(and I emphasize

might

) have been balanced if you added 3 or 4 townspeople and made this a large game. But even then, had the Town not happened to lynch the Serial Killer Day One we could have had our numbers cut out from under us very quickly anyways.

Congrats to scum, blah blah, obligatory nice words here.

You're not the only one who has issues with the balance here.

Kinetic, remember one of my core rules of setup balance analysis: Neutral Survivors absolutely MUST be weighted as a Mafia Traitor when evaluating game balance (since they have every incentive to vote with the scum unless Town is already doing very well). Neutral Survivor + 3-man scum team in a Mini is NEVER a good idea - it's ALWAYS horribly imbalanced in favor of the Mafia. (The additional Vengeance condition was just icing on the cake.)

Let's see those role PMs, because it currently looks like there were at least 6 players (i.e. half the players) who had no incentive to actually help the Town.

3 Mafia, 1 Serial Killer, 1 Survivor, and 1 player who could win through his Vengeance condition. The Town pretty much made no mistakes except for lynching JulianVonWolfe, and then we lost because of a single vote.

PJ, one quibble here: Individual Town did make one other huge set of mistakes... most of the genuinely useful power roles outed themselves early (especially Chamber and UK - given UK's role I would have suspected that "time traveler" was close to a guilty) or were forced to out themselves (Boxman/RayFrost*/JVW) letting us get rid of them quickly. Getting a JVW lynch was icing on the cake.

Still doesn't excuse Survivor + 3 Mafia (let alone the SK), but it hurt the Town quite a bit.

* - RayFrost made himself REALLY obvious as the second Mason by N1 (though that may be colored by me being generally good at picking up on Mason tells).

If I had to go back and changed it, I think I would have either

A) Removed the Serial Killer and made a different (almost certainly vanilla) role in its place

B) Removed a goon and given the mafia players some limited powers as well.

When I was making the game I had hope that the SK/Mafia would have cross kill potential and it would help balance the large amount of anti-town roles in the game, but that was a bad idea.

Uh, that first option is actually MORE broken than the setup already was (at least a Serial Killer has incentive to get rid of Mafiosos) - that would be effectively 8-4 (remember, Survivors balance as Traitor!).

The second one would have been a decent fix.

I'm surprised you never thought of, say, just switching the Neutral Survivor to a weak town power role (or even splitting Chamber's role so that the new role got part of it) and switching malthusis's Vengeance to an additional win condition (still anti-town, but not as anti-town as additional). Making the Masons confirmed could also have helped, assuming 3 Mafia and an SK (though the Mafioso might need a weak power role to make up for it, especially if the survivor-replacement wasn't vanilla).

Other issues with the setup, IMO:
- Remember that town roles that don't know what they do are very weak, especially if there's only one role in the game that can learn about it (I'd have strongly considered putting a second version of chamber's role in the setup.
- Key roles with extremely strong effects create EXTREMELY swingy setups (Mind Screw 1 taught me that lesson well).