Open 441 - Chosen Mafia (OVER)

[McStab]

Wow, RGF is hilariously misinformed on both how I play (and how successful I am at it) and also how mafia is actually played.
My earlygame gut reads are superspecial awesome and I find that they almost always end up flipping scum. My gut is the best thing ever, and I am basically always correct on the last scum in an LYLO if I use it. My logic is nowhere near as good as my gut, and it frequently causes me to get on the wrong track and and up on a mislynch.
So frankly, if you wanna keep telling me to start sucking more in this game instead of playing to my best abilities, feel free to do so, I won't change just because you would lynch me for it. Frankly, that's a bullshit reason to lynch anyway.

Don't worry Rapid, I wasn't expecting you to defend anyway.

The last game you were in with me you buddied a scum, got yourself day-killed, mislynched a townie and outed another player as just a VT, because you hadn't used critical thinking and relied on your gut. Another one I was in you essentially used your gut to get half the confirmed townreads quicklynched. Please, refrain from giving us your "superspecial awesome" gut reads.

[McStab]

After reading through again and taking special consideration to Pasch's post, I feel certain that Pasch is mafia and am down for lynching Pasch.

Case for lynching Pasch

1) His "reads" are all fluff

Most of his reads say "townish" or "leaning town" to get as many people on his side as possible. Let's look at his analysis on Greywing "Not a lot to say, but there's real criticism in his two later posts." - So basically no read. Just fluff.

His read on Eidolon mirrors that "Can't really take issue with anything she's said. I caution too much against taking Rapidcanyon at face value."

So, here Pasch buddies up to Eidolon while at the same time trying to discredit her read on me.

So, this gives us the question - why did Pasch make a long post full of "reads" when he had absolutely nothing to contribute and had no reads at all?

He says that some of my early posts attempt to discredit the deductive process. That makes no sense. Anytime a newcomer plays in an environment that is new to them, they would try to fit into that environment as opposed to discrediting the status quo. This is exactly what my early posts were doing. I was asking questions and reasoning behind why people are voting for others so I can understand it better. This was explained to me by Whiskers and Eidolon.

2) Fabricating scumtells

Pasch is trying to spin perfectly innocent posts into scumtells. He also says about me "Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too." However, I haven't relied on WIFOM at all. I merely pointed out that we will get into an endless WIFOM cycle if we assume that mafia will act town so those acting town must be mafia. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that those playing pro-town are actually town. Townies are not going to play pro-mafia. The fact that Pasch pretends to not understand my argument and simply throws a blanket label "WIFOM" on it to discredit it is another reason why I believe he is scum.

3) Zoning in on players who others found suspicious

Despite the fact that Pasch supposedly suspects McStab, he never votes for him but rather votes for realGF putting him at L-1. Three other players had already voted realGF and Pasch votes for him with minimal reasoning hoping for an eventual lynch. He also FOSses me hoping to keep the attention on me and RealGF while he coasts through the game.

4) Captain Obvious

Whiskers is lying about the vig claim. Obviously. He was joking. There aren't going to be vigs in an open game. I didn't even think twice about it but Pasch decides to point out that whiskers was lying as if that makes Whiskers more scummy. Also, he had no read on whiskers so obviously this is a fluff statement as well.

5) Following the town aka bandwagoning

This is Pasch's single absolute biggest scumtell. He barely posted in the beginning making a "random" vote on whiskers but AFTER the others narrowed down to RealGF as the most suspicious with one person also FOSsing me, Pasch makes a long fluff post saying how they are all town, that I am scum, and voting RealGF. Pasch did not come to this conclusion on his own but rather waited and then voted the way the others have been voting.

Conclusion

Mafia try to tunnel in on townies that other townies suspect rather than post genuine analysis. They also make a posts that contain no substance. Pasch is guilty of both of these things. Another classic tell is that Pasch is fabricating scumtells by misrepresenting my early posts and insists that Eidolon's town read on me shouldn't be taken at "face-value." He is also buddying and bandwagoning and lurked until the others reached a decision on RealGF.

Pasch is our best candidate for a lynch today. I am confident enough that I am willing to take the heat if he flips town.

Unvote Vote Paschendale

I like this guy ^

Vote: Passchendale

in a blatant sheeping of rapidcanyon.


For the rest of my reads, I have a bad gut feeling of Om, bad gut feeling of Whiskers, good gut feeling on rapidcanyon and realgodfather, and null on the others. More in-depth analysis to come in awhile.

[McStab]

Sorry, I'm coming along. RGF is either trying the funniest fake townslip gambit or is really town. lololol

I will post in the next ten minutes on Whiskers, rapidcanyon, and Eidolon.

[McStab]

Real GF, why do you think I am mafia?

Also, Eidolon, I already claimed. Why are still voting for me?

^^Peculiar play, but I'll grant that it's someone who's new to the site. Still, weird weird reaction to pressure.

Om of the Nom, if you don't provide reasoning why I am mafia and simply say that it is your "gut," all I can tell you is that your wrong about me because I am town.

Whiskers, I find it odd that you reply to Eidolon by saying that I am scum but you respond to her post that she can read me by saying that you won't buy it if she says that I am town. Why so selective?

Vote: Whiskers

^^^Early signs of possible motive to kill Om? I normally don't put much weight on mafia NKs being something you can read into, but Om just DOESN'T make sense to kill. He's decent, but not amazing, he was an easy target for a mislynch because of his bad hammer yesterday, etc. Om was one of the few yesterday who seemed to persist in suspecting rapidcanyon though. Also, I don't like the wording "Why so selective?", as it implies to me he disproves of the selection, not the actual behaviour or possible motives. Not exactly a slam dunk, but it still fits the bill of somewhat scummy behaviour.

Good followup excuse after, though, as to why he used selective. I approve, point regarding selective retracted. Still possible motive to kill Om.

That is a fairly well-thought out explanation.

Unvote

I'd like to see more activity from the inactive players.

Vote Crypto

After essentially destroying Whiskers' argument, a very quick retraction and an attack on the only player who is unable to respond. I see this as scummy. Targeting lurkers is easy prey, and that early into the game it strikes me as trying to find something to say without risk of reprisal or suspicion.


Alright, here comes the BIG case:

After reading through again and taking special consideration to Pasch's post, I feel certain that Pasch is mafia and am down for lynching Pasch.

Case for lynching Pasch

1) His "reads" are all fluff

Most of his reads say "townish" or "leaning town" to get as many people on his side as possible. Let's look at his analysis on Greywing "Not a lot to say, but there's real criticism in his two later posts." - So basically no read. Just fluff.

His read on Eidolon mirrors that "Can't really take issue with anything she's said. I caution too much against taking Rapidcanyon at face value."

So, here Pasch buddies up to Eidolon while at the same time trying to discredit her read on me.

So, this gives us the question - why did Pasch make a long post full of "reads" when he had absolutely nothing to contribute and had no reads at all?

He says that some of my early posts attempt to discredit the deductive process. That makes no sense. Anytime a newcomer plays in an environment that is new to them, they would try to fit into that environment as opposed to discrediting the status quo. This is exactly what my early posts were doing. I was asking questions and reasoning behind why people are voting for others so I can understand it better. This was explained to me by Whiskers and Eidolon.

2) Fabricating scumtells

Pasch is trying to spin perfectly innocent posts into scumtells. He also says about me "Relying on WIFOM as an excuse to defuse things is a bit weak, too." However, I haven't relied on WIFOM at all. I merely pointed out that we will get into an endless WIFOM cycle if we assume that mafia will act town so those acting town must be mafia. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that those playing pro-town are actually town. Townies are not going to play pro-mafia. The fact that Pasch pretends to not understand my argument and simply throws a blanket label "WIFOM" on it to discredit it is another reason why I believe he is scum.

3) Zoning in on players who others found suspicious

Despite the fact that Pasch supposedly suspects McStab, he never votes for him but rather votes for realGF putting him at L-1. Three other players had already voted realGF and Pasch votes for him with minimal reasoning hoping for an eventual lynch. He also FOSses me hoping to keep the attention on me and RealGF while he coasts through the game.

4) Captain Obvious

Whiskers is lying about the vig claim. Obviously. He was joking. There aren't going to be vigs in an open game. I didn't even think twice about it but Pasch decides to point out that whiskers was lying as if that makes Whiskers more scummy. Also, he had no read on whiskers so obviously this is a fluff statement as well.

5) Following the town aka bandwagoning

This is Pasch's single absolute biggest scumtell. He barely posted in the beginning making a "random" vote on whiskers but AFTER the others narrowed down to RealGF as the most suspicious with one person also FOSsing me, Pasch makes a long fluff post saying how they are all town, that I am scum, and voting RealGF. Pasch did not come to this conclusion on his own but rather waited and then voted the way the others have been voting.

Conclusion

Mafia try to tunnel in on townies that other townies suspect rather than post genuine analysis. They also make a posts that contain no substance. Pasch is guilty of both of these things. Another classic tell is that Pasch is fabricating scumtells by misrepresenting my early posts and insists that Eidolon's town read on me shouldn't be taken at "face-value." He is also buddying and bandwagoning and lurked until the others reached a decision on RealGF.

Pasch is our best candidate for a lynch today. I am confident enough that I am willing to take the heat if he flips town.

Unvote Vote Paschendale

Argument number one:

Basically, Paschendale posted fluff reads. I don't think this is all that relevant. I hadn't posted much either, and yet I wasn't the subject of rapid's attacks. Why? Because I hadn't attacked him, like Pasch had. This kind of argument is weak at best, particularly so early in the game.

Argument number two: Pasch wasn't fabricating scumtells. Sure, there's some WIFOM, but making a logical mistake and trying to misconstrue something are very different things. For example, this argument is misconstruing Paschendale as scum.

Argument number three:

Could be pressure, could be that he legitimately thought RealGF was scummy. Either way, we know now that Pasch is town, and this argument isn't terribly convincing. Still, it's hard to argue with anything here. It passes.

Argument number four:

As obvious as the flaw in Pasch's argument was about Whiskers, it's just as obvious that Pasch couldn't seriously get someone lynched on that lie. I would think scum could come up with a more convincing argument than that.

Argument number five:

So did I. Am I scum? Sheeping is sheeping. Sheeping is anti-town, sure, I'll give you that. But anti-town =/= scum. You can also see the rays of truth behind rapid's attacks coming out in both the title "Following the town" (how are you so convinced the bandwagon on RGF is town-driven, Rapid?) and the fact that what really caused this argument against Pasch is that he pressured rapidcanyon as scum.

Now here's my conclusion:

Rapidcanyon reacted very weirdly to pressure at the start, taking non-serious RVS reasons extremely seriously (but only the ones on himself). He had a motive to kill Om (based on Om's interactions throughout the day against him) and he was the ONE person in the whole game who was unable to attack Om. Why? Because he would be guilty of OMGUS and he cameup with all the reasons to vote Paschendale. Since he came up with all the reasons, what justifies going after someone else on the wagon?

I wouldn't be surprised if RGF is the other scum, given the defense put up by rapid of him, but that's mere conjecture at this point.

Vote: Rapidcanyon

Thoughts on Whiskers and Eidolon will come later.

[McStab]

McStab, and why didn't you make this case to derail the Pasch wagon? If you had an issue with voting Pasch, why didn't you mention it before you voted. Why did you quote my case and vote him unless you thought my case was valid?

I said I understand Grey's suspicions because he tried to slow down the lynch. Yours on the other hand are a little more difficult to understand.

You say "

Basically, Paschendale posted fluff reads. I don't think this is all that relevant. I hadn't posted much either, and yet I wasn't the subject of rapid's attacks. Why? Because I hadn't attacked him, like Pasch had. This kind of argument is weak at best, particularly so early in the game.

"

And yet you vote Pasch? Why not say this and let me address them before you voted Pasch?

Argument 2, you say Pasch is misconstued as scum. So, are you telling me you voted on someone you felt was being misconstrued as scum?

Argument 5: Bandwagoning - you bought my argument that Pasch was bandwagoning and bandwagoned yourself.

Other responses:

This was my first game. I honestly didn't understand the concept of RVS pressure until a few players explained it to me. I was just wondering "why did Om vote Om? What is going on here?"

So, explain to me why you quoted my case and voted Pasch if you had responses to give?

This is going to sound insensitive, but I didn't derail the Pasch wagon because I wanted to see how he would flip. If he flipped Chosen, you were dead; you made the case on him and went out of your way, so you virtually had to be scum. If he flipped VT, I was going to look more on the people near the end of the wagon. If he flipped scum, the people on the other wagon or who defended him were likely scum.

I wanted information and was willing to trade a VT for that. If he flipped Chosen, you were dead anyone and we'd be back to parity with Chosen Townies to Scum. Finally, if someone blatantly attacked me for just sheeping your case in the third spot on the wagon, I figured they were town.

As for the bandwagoning, I don't know what you're trying to prove. That a confirmed town player bandwagoned, now I'm doing it, and this makes me scum? Lawlz.

Wondering why Om voted Om is perfectly reasonable. Your responses to votes on you, however, are suspicious. Alone, it's not warranting a lynch; combined with Pasch's lynch, it does.

[McStab]

@Eidolon: Any game that is finished is fine to comment on, anything that's not finished isn't allowed to. I personally don't mind, but it is a violation of the rules. I think I answered your point anyway though. That being said, I'd ask that the mod be gracious and just remove the content as opposed to anything harsher; it hasn't/can't impact(ed) the other game as far as I can tell, and I can't see a motivation Eidolon would have of breaking the rules deliberately.

[McStab]

I don't really buy it though. I don't see town motivation behind "settling on a townie lynch" that early in the day phase when we could have talked and gained even more information and possibly lynched scum off the bat.

You don't need to believe me, but the fact that you're accusing me proves me correct. You know Paschendale was town, so you look at the people on the wagon. I was on the wagon, and your main motivation for voting me is that you don't believe my reason for settling on the Pasch list.

Point proven, I believe.

[McStab]

And yeah, I didn't know how he'd flip. I personally thought it more likely that we'd struck gold and hit Pasch-scum or that rapid had fabricated a case on a Chosen Townie. As I explained, none of the scenarios were that poor, we either lynch scum Day One in Paschendale, lynch scum Day Two in rapidcanyon, or lynch another scum Day Two based on flips. Tbh I thought Om might be scum after that hammer, which is why I was so perplexed at his death.

[McStab]

McStab, your vote counts just as much as mine therefore you are as responsible for the lynch as anyone else who voted Pasch. Each vote counts the same. It is the justification that one gives for their votes that matters. I gave very detailed justification for voting pasch as did whiskers and Eidolon. Om, we know is town. People voted for Pasch because they thought he was scummy. If you didn't think he was scummy, you should not have voted. Hindsight is 20-20. You vote for him, get him lynched, and then say that the other voters are scummy. That itself is scummy.

Also, you say you were going to look closer at the final voters if Pasch flipped VT. However, I am not one of the final votes on Pasch. I was the second.

I haven't played on this site before and my initial responses were asking what is going on. Asking questions is not suspicious.

Nonsense, you were the one who set it in motion. You provided a rationale for others to jump on, you led the charge when no one else was listening, and you didn't try to stop it after it got moving. You were the chief orchestrator of the wagon.

Your justification was longer and detailed; this was because you needed to convince others. Whiskers' justification was reasonable (but not totally above reproach) and Eidolon's justification was barely a rehashing of a few of the points in your case.

I never said Pasch wasn't scummy. I said I was fine if he flipped something else other than scum, though, too. There's a difference between me saying "I think Pasch is town" and me thinking "I think Pasch is scum, but if he flips town, which is very possible, it's still not that bad".

I was going to look at the final voters, but then Om got shot and my townread on Whiskers has gone way up since the last time I looked at him. Eidolon's question-asking has pretty much made him conf. town in my opinion, and I know my own alignment. This leaves you.

Also, for a newbie, you seemed to catch onto RVS pretty quickly. In fact, you said it yourself right here:

Real GF, If you see my posts, you'll see that most of my questions were genuine and an attempt to understand a style of play that I haven't played before. I am also trying to make connections with an environment I know so I feel more comfortable. You are essentially saying that since I am acting how town often acts, I am mafia. This can turn into an endless WIFOM cycle. Mafia lurks but town talks. So, mafia talks in order to seem town. But then, once people think that players who are talking are mafia, mafia will lurk again. There is no set policy. You could twist it any way you want.

Eidolon, yes claims don't matter.

So, why did you vote me in the first place? I assumed it was a joke/non-serious vote just to make me say that I am town and to promote activity.

You were well aware of RVS.


@Eidolon:

Here is my logic:

Pasch could very well be scum. If he flips scum, RC is town, and the people on the wagon gain some towncred.

Pasch could be VT. If he flips VT, it's likely the opportunists at the end of the wagon than the carefully planned start that are scum. This is no longer my view, in that Om is dead and Whiskers is a townread. I don't think it's an all town wagon though, so I think RC is the scum.

Pasch could be Chosen Townie. If he flips Chosen Townie, RC is obvscum for orchestrating the case on him, we lynch RC, and it's back to 1 scum 1 CT. No big deal.


I wasn't settling on a townie lynch, I was hoping for a scum lynch. It just wasn't a disaster if we happened to lynch town, because the wagon gave us a boatload of information.


The fact you think I could be scum for jumping on the wagon of a flipped VT for no stated reason is evidence of this information; now, I am providing my rationale. My point is proven though. Your suspicion of me is based entirely on Pasch's flip.

[McStab]

^ Ahh, nevermind. I get what you are saying Stab. That it gave us good info, and probably more straightfoward info than a long drawn out thing.

Precisely. 95% of the time I would disagree with quick days, but I feel confident in the following based off of yesterday:

That you are town. That RC is scum. That if RC is scum, RGF is scum with him. That Whiskers is more likely than average to be town.

The only thing I think we lost from yesterday was the ability of crypto to get replaced or speak, but this was a relatively small trade off for what we've gained.

[McStab]

My biggest scumread is McStab. His rationale was terrible. I made a case, he bandwagons, and rather than justify why Pasch was scum, he refutes my case against Pasch which he should have done when the case was first posted.

Unsure on whiskers who seemed fairly eager to agree with McStab.

Basically OMGUS. And yet you still haven't cast a vote for me. Please, explain how I'm wrong, when the fact is, allowing Pasch to flip has got you caught up and flailing. You're arguments against me are evidence of my rationale's success.


As for why I'm certain that everyone else is town, I didn't say that. I'm pretty certain Eidolon isn't, but that's for reasons totally independent of the wagon (his meta, his inquisitive attitude, his careful balancing of points, and willingness to force people to answer). I know Om isn't, because he's dead. I have a townread on Whiskers for the same reasons as Eidolon, I simply don't lump her into the confirmed town pile because I know she's very skilled as scum. That leaves you, me, or the idea that no one on that quick wagon Day One was scum. I know I'm not, which leaves you. I then looked at your ISO and it's confirmed my suspicions for reasons I just stated. It would make sense to have RGF as your partner too, because you started up Pasch's wagon to try and save him.

[McStab]

@ Eidolon, why are you eager to buy McStab's explanation? He is basically accusing people of making a case for lynching someone on which he bandwagoned.

And I've provided ample rationale for my bandwagoning. You haven't countered my rationale in a meaningful way at all.

[McStab]

McStab is obviously scum. He bandwagons and then accuses the person who made the case.

Vote: McStab

I just answered it. Why put their vote on a mislynch if they can avoid it?

Gross oversimplification of my argument, and yet another example of you misconstruing what I am trying to say. Also funny how you now lay down your vote only after I pressure you for not putting it down.

[McStab]

You answer my question: are you seriously buying McStab's argument?

What have you put forth to refute it? So far you've basically sat there calling it incredulous without providing any reasons as to why it is incredulous. You're also trying to shift the debate from you needing to justify what you've said.

[McStab]

McStab, have you ever seen a townie provide a case for lynching another townie? It happens extremely often.

Your strategy of lynching a player, seeing their flip and then lynching the player that provided a case seems to me a setup for a double mislynch. Everyone who votes on a player's lynch is responsible for that lynch. You not giving reasons for your vote makes it more likely that you are the scum as opposed to less likely.

Your strategy wouldn't work simply because town is just as likely to provide a case for lynching town as is scum. The fact that used such a flawed strategy is indicative of your alignment.

I've also seen scum provide cases for lynching townies extremely often. To paraphrase your whole defense against Pasch accusing you of being scum trying to look town, you can't claim you are town because you look scummy. These defenses are WIFOM circular reasoning forever and ever.

Tell me, what's more incredulous, that I knew Pasch would get lynched, and at the time concocted a mislynch against the player who had the most detailed rationale for voting him, then decided to kill the guy who did a suspicious hammer? Or that you setup a mislynch of someone who was suspicious of you (Pasch) because you had already been nervous under pressure in RVS, and then shot the only other player expressing suspicion of you (Om). Then, that you come out swinging at me for sheeping, despite me being able to provide a detailed explanation as to what I'd been trying to achieve within four minutes of your accusation against me.

Flawed strategies =/= Scum.

Your case against me is flawed, but more importantly, your case against Pasch was flawed AND scummy. Your behaviour in RVS serves as supporting evidence, and you are just about the only player in the game who I could see has a clear motivation to kill Om. Your case against me is motivated by concern of the pressure I'm putting on you, the SAME pressure that Paschendale and Om put on you.

[McStab]

You asked me why I didn't think she was scum. I told you why. I wouldn't have mentioned this unless you hadn't asked me. You then go on to buddy up to her.

Everything you say is a fabrication.

[McStab]

@ McStab, I already explained why are scum. You voted a player based on MY case and are then accusing me of being scum while defending someone that you voted against.

I could just as well say that I made a case for lynching a random player just to see if anyone bandwagons. You did.

Not so. Pasch's flip was especially informative. No other wagon that day would've provided the kind of information that one did.

Om's flip was just a bonus when it came to information, because no other scum would've killed him.

[McStab]

Posting arguments =/= town. It is pro-town because we can then verify your arguments and see if they hold up. They did not. Hence, your play was pro-town in that you gave us information that will let us lynch you. Your alignment, however, is most certainly not pro-town.


There is zero scum motivation for most people to try and lynch you as opposed to Om. After Om's hammer he was the easiest mislynch ever. This is what makes his death so interesting. You're the only person I can see who had motivation to kill him.

[McStab]

Literally the only defense that's held up on rapidcanyon is his meta as town. He has played here since July 20th, that's two months. Players change playstyles frequently when starting. Has anyone here seen a scum rapidcanyon meta? What's to say he's not stubborn as a mule as scum.

Meta is a bad reason on it's own to hold off lynching someone also.

If you think I'm good enough as scum to organize a mislynch (without saying much about my vote, keeping in mind) then kill an easy mislynch to attack a player who is as verbose as yourself, then I thank you for the flattery, but you're scum.

Even if you were a townie, probability alone dictates that it's unlikely you're the chosen townie. Your argument is based off of slim probability, the assumption that I calculated and engineered a plan that had no guarantees of working, just to get you lynched as a Chosen Townie, which, if you were, I would almost certainly be lynched the next day.

Somehow I think the alternatives are far more likely.

[McStab]

Why would I remove a mislynch target out of the way?

Because he pressured you, which means two things:

1) Anything you say against him is suspect. Your arguments are more discredited.

2) There's a higher chance he would catch on to you being scum.

[McStab]

So which is it? Am I a mastermind who engineered a mislynch and then killed a suspicious player to go after someone who wasn't suspicious? Or am I the scum who bandwagoned a townie quite blatantly to get a lynch, then went with it as it happened? You paint two possible pictures of me, both are flawed, and both are diametrically opposed. This is proof that your accusations against me are fabrications, rather than a clear, concise picture you have of me being scum.

And I've already answered why I did what I did countless times, if you think I'm going to rehash it you're wrong.

[McStab]

That excuse would checkout, except, as you noted in the very first few posts, EVERYONE will claim VT. How could you possibly think claiming would remedy your situation when you already made it clear everyone would claim VT?

[McStab]

Sure

[McStab]

"I can't explain it, but that won't prevent me from subtly suggesting I was framed"

You also just pointed out the reason mafiosos vote lurkers. You can't criticize someone for it. On it's own, sure, it's not a huge scumtell, but lurkers are easy targets for scum. I think taken together with everything else, it's supporting evidence.

[McStab]

I've answered half of these already, and I'm answering the other half sometime tomorrow or the day after.

[McStab]

You're scum gg no re

nothing else for tonight

[McStab]

lol @ trying to be headstrong and frustrated

[McStab]

I'm not lynching Eidolon today. I'll settle with a RGF lynch, but I'm more enthused with the prospect of a RC lynch. I could be convinced on Greywing or crypto but I really don't see enough content from them to warrant a lynch at this point.

[McStab]

Here are my thoughts on what happened recently:

Whiskers townread is the same as before. He's playing consistently. That being said, I doubt he's a Chosen Townie; no one in the game has made a shot at him yet. Even Rapidcanyon in his OMGUS fit didn't go after Whiskers as strongly as myself or Eidolon.

Eidolon also is unlikely to be a Chosen Townie, in my eyes. Despite the mounting criticism on him, he wasn't under any serious pressure Day One, and the criticism has only started to turn on him recently. It's possible, but not very likely.

This leaves one of myself, rapidcanyon, realgodfather, crypto or Greywing to be the Chosen Townie.

Could I be the Chosen Townie? Yes. Near the end of Day One and start of Day Two, I was subject to criticism. However, I think this to be unlikely. I was supported by both Whiskers and Eidolon (who, as I stated earlier, are unlikely to be Chosen Townies). If they are scum, they would've gone against me if I am a Chosen Townie - UNLESS rapidcanyon is also a Chosen Townie, in which case it's win win for either of them. The probability of this, however, is low.

So who are likely to be Chosen Townies? Well, funnily enough, the answers I've came to conclude are actually those who I thought were scummiest before.

Rapidcanyon and RealGodfather. This wagon on Rapidcanyon went one way only; towards Rapidcanyon. Pressure didn't turn around on me, and everyone seems to have assented to it. I legitimately thought he was scum, but the way this wagon's gone, and the lack of any other counterwagons, lead me to conclude Rapid is most likely Chosen Townie.

So, with the conclusion that Rapidcanyon must be Chosen, and then that Whiskers and Eidolon, while not chosen, are town, this leads me to make a few other conclusions:

The Pasch wagon was entirely town. Om is dead and flipped town, I know I'm town, Whiskers and Eidolon feel very town, and I think Rapid is Chosen.

So where were the scum?

Well, if Pasch was a wagon on a VT, and entirely town motivated, then it seems to me that the counterwagon was likely scum motivated and on a Chosen Townie. Realgodfather would make sense. The two people voting him at the end of the day were Greywing and Pasch. Now, Pasch can be excused in that he was trying to push alternatives to him; but what was Greywing's justification?

VOTE: realgodfather

You're not my real godfather. If you're lying about something as big as that, it's not a stretch to assume you're lying about your in-game alignment as well!

His RVS vote. No changing throughout the day. Some people correctly pointed out that this was an awkward vote, and I think they were right. My theory is he voted him and left it on, so that when RGF flipped Chosen, he wouldn't appear to be the main proponent of the wagon. Yet he clearly was:

Thank you for agreeing with me on my first point. Hopefully we can see eye-to-eye in a moment.

While your impulsive and gut-driven playstyle might work a few times, it isn't one of the best ways to play this game. Mafia involves a deeper level of critical thought and concentration than pushing on early gut reads, especially when you play the game on a forum. I urge you to let the game flow its course for a while and take a second look, later -- that's what I'm about to do. I think you'll find that your game will improve exponentially if you do this.

If you don't improve your so-far-slipshod play by tomorrow night, I will lead a lynch on you. That doesn't sound too unreasonable, does it?

So a policy lynch in a game this size? That sounds like a good idea to you?

While it was ostensibly in the defense of Om, I think this was meant to lead the attack on a Chosen Townie RealGodfather. Killing Om makes sense here, because now it looks like RealGodfather has motive to do it.

Om's death makes perfect sense if RC and RGF are the Chosen Townies, because Om criticized both of them. Greywing and whoever his partner is could lead the attacks on both. I just ended up doing the job for him, and so he's sheeped me.


Anyone who ISO's Greywing, with the idea of Greywing being scum and RapidCanyon + RGF being Chosen, will surely see all the other supporting evidence that works here.


I think we've caught one scum easily in Greywing, and I renounce my prior accusations against Rapidcanyon and RGF assuming I am correct. I want to investigate this by lynching Greywing.

Vote:Greywing

It does become much harder to figure out who his partner is. If I had to guess, simply because no other player seems to fit the criteria, I would guess crypto.

For the tl;dr version, Greywing + someone else (likely crypto by PoE) are scum, and RGF and RC are chosen.

[McStab]

Eidolon's town, I'm like 95% sure of it.

[McStab]

Also, I'm just pre-empting this before Greywing brings it up, but yes, I did have a total about-face on RC and RGF. This is because I started to try and figure out who could be Chosen based on Day One and Two, as opposed to who could be scum. Once I had the most likely Chosen Townies figured out, finding Greyscum was easy enough.

[McStab]

@Whiskers: Regarding RC, simply put, yes. The Om kill also makes sense to "frame" him, but not just him, also RGF. RGF has been ignoring the wagon, but I think he's Chosen based on Day One (if scum aren't on the Pasch wagon, then they either didn't vote or pushed RGF, and if Greywing is scum, it clears RGF as Chosen, imo). Crypto I think is scum by PoE but PoE is weak compared to Greywing's scummy posts.

Greywing did post, though, and he came out against RC. This further strengthens my confidence in the theory.

As for lynching Non-Chosen townies, I think that that's not a likely scum strategy. Think about it: You get behind and are responsible for a handful of mislynches, and are left with a last chance lynch against Chosen Townies?

Intentionally lynching VTs isn't how I would put it. I would put it as "intentionally NOT lynching those most likely to be Chosen". Lynching you or Eidolon before RC is good, sure, but lynching you or Eidolon before crypto or Greywing isn't smart.

[McStab]

Long story short, because I don't want to post a wall, his posting has shown legitimate thought processes of trying to figure things out. What confirmed it for me was when he didn't understand or buy into my "information lynch", and then before I posted anything more he understood it. Scum are unlikely to fake such a thought process or be concerned about figuring it out. Things like that may be small, but it's the small stuff that scum have trouble faking (how do you fake a legitimate thought process?)

[McStab]

When I get some more time, I'll writeup a more detailed explanation if you insist.

That being said, I would like some more votes on Greywing. I suspect added pressure will make him talk more.

[McStab]

@Whiskers: Well, do you think he's bored? Because if you do, I don't see why you feel the need to hide it; argue instead why you don't feel it's a towntell.

[McStab]

I'm hearing alot of agreement for this Greywing lynch and no substance to back it up. Where are the votes?

[McStab]

When we get that replacement for Crypto, I'll discuss hammering.

Why the replacement for Crypto but not Greywing?

[McStab]

so hey how bout we lynch RGF

i have a really sour taste in my mouth from feigned town tells

his activity has dropped fairly hard since nobodys looking at him anymore

Not doing it, this just reaffirms my belief he's Chosen. For some reason you and Whiskers seem to be pushing rather vehemently for this, despite lack of mentioning anything except that he's a lurker. I've also already explained why I think he's Chosen earlier.

[McStab]

Well, you haven't been pushing "vehemently" for it, but is that really who you want lynched? What about the Me-RC, or Eidolon vs Whiskers-RC debate earlier? Sure, RGF hasn't played a great town game, but for the amount of flak he's receiving for posting so little (especially relative to Greywing) it's pretty absurd. Someone just hammer Greywing and be done with it; I won't jump on an RGF lynch.

[McStab]

Your expectation is that he's a "useless" townie, not a Chosen townie. That's a bad expectation.

Hammer Greywing and buy some towncred so that Whiskers is next instead of you.

[McStab]

I highly suspect he is, and I'm not willing to let him get lynched to find out. At this point, this is my reads; I said this earlier but I'd imagine you don't want to read all the walls:


RC - Chosen Townie.
RGF - Chosen Townie.
Eidolon - Townie.
Whiskers - Unknown (used to be town, before someone jumps all over this)
Inte/Crypto - Unknown
Greywing - Scum
Myself - Townie

[McStab]

don't put me with crypto

ima go ahead and put it out there, real town doesn't town tell that hard

^^don't understand what you're saying

[McStab]

If your case is based off a single townslip and some lurking, then you need a better case.

I believe the wagon on Pasch was largely town motivated (at least myself, Eidolon and RC) and the wagon on RGF was an attack on a Chosen Townie led by scum-Greywing. Hence why lynching RGF came up so often but lynching crypto never seemed to get beyond the conception stage.

[McStab]

And yes, I am quite confident in Greywing scum, read his ISO yourself and try to remain unconvinced. It's very hard.

I won't judge you for hammering him, you can maintain some more towncred; I promise you will last longer than Whiskers, at least.

[McStab]

i do find that funny.

We don't lynch Whiskers TODAY because Greywing is scummiest, in my opinion.

[McStab]

My post #312.

[McStab]

^^We're safe as long as we don't lynch Chosen.

[McStab]

I highly suspect he is, and I'm not willing to let him get lynched to find out. At this point, this is my reads; I said this earlier but I'd imagine you don't want to read all the walls:


RC - Chosen Townie.
RGF - Chosen Townie.
Eidolon - Townie.
Whiskers - Unknown (used to be town, before someone jumps all over this)
Inte/Crypto - Unknown
Greywing - Scum
Myself - Townie

Shyeahh, nope.
VOTE: McStab

What in particular strikes you as scummy? And is this really all you have to contribute to the game? If I didn't think you were Chosen I'd push for you to be policy lynched.

[McStab]

just hammer him for the mods sake

[McStab]

I'm curious as to why I'm alive as well after Grey flipped scum. Could be CT, but no one has reLly taken a strong pass at me except RC, who I think is Chosen. Not comfortable with an Eidolon lynch, could go for an Inte, but I'm no longer sold on Whiskers town. Can't comment more on this for the next rew days, VLa, but please no quicklynches till I get back

[McStab]

That hammer was scummy. It was an overemphasis on how much she didn't care, and OH what a convenient accident. Nah, it felt forced, she was under pressure, and wanted to beat Inte for towncred. Eidolon is not getting my vote. She gets WAY more towncred than Whiskers from the Greywing wagon.

[McStab]

Time for an experiment

vote:whiskers

That's L-1. Inte please don't unvote for the next little while.

[McStab]

Don't worry about my experiment, everyone do what they feel they need to do.

[McStab]

I won't criticize you for it if she flips town and you hammer. Tons of people have made that mistake before.

[McStab]

Inte, trust me. Don't unvote unless nothing happens in the next like two pages.

[McStab]

Inte knows what's up


not taking that deal either

[McStab]

Get walling if you have real content to post, you have a few hours.

[McStab]

It goes without saying I won't quickvote someone in LyLo.

Eidolon just hammer Whiskers and be done with it. His flip will reveal Eidolon's alignment.

Not to blatant sheep inte, but I'm town, you're town, and inte is town. This game is an easy win. I'll have to re-evaluate if Whiskers somehow flips town, but I'm not going to trust my Eidolon read if he does.

[McStab]

He hasn't acted scummy at any point this game, he figured out my experiment (something you still haven't done) and isn't trying to mess with it, and scum generally aren't "stubborn and obstinate".

[McStab]

I have a 50% winrate as town, 60% winrate as scum. As you can attest to in Mini 1361, I do tend to have a pretty good scumdar once I get the scent of scum, and I have the scent (from Greywing).

I'm sure I skimmed it, but I'm not going to reread it unless we end up in LyLo.

[McStab]

You can save yourself the time by lynching Whiskers; if he flips anything but scum, no one is "auto town", because I have townreads on every surviving player, meaning I'm obviously off and have to reconsider. So would inte I'm sure, so would Eidolon, and really only you would have still-present views.

[McStab]

Case coming up...

Yeah, lol. I don't know why I post so much.

It's generally a good thing. I just don't post alot until I get passionate, as town or scum. To compare it to Mini 1361, my posting upswing went up exponentially as soon as I made the connection between PM and Natalie, and it carried on for the rest of the game.

[McStab]

Eidolon I won't hold it against you if you hammer

[McStab]

it would be for max lulz

[McStab]

Inte is a strange person to NK. I can't really see a motive RC has to leave me alive. Eidolon, on the other hand, I can see.

I'd like to hear both arguments first though. Eidolon, why do you think RC is scum? RC, why do you think Eidolon is scum?

[McStab]

Well, I can only conclude the reason I survived the night after I pushed hard against Greywing was because I was Chosen. Obviously with Whiskers death I COULD die, so someone obviously thought I would be of assistance to them. Judging from your posts near the end of yesterday, you suspected I would support Eidolon against you or inte. BUT.... I did offer you assurances I would think. So it's not clear cut either way.

My experiment yesterday was I was trying to see if Eidolon would lynch Whiskers if she felt comfortable (if he flipped scum that was great too), as opposed to because he was scummy. Hence why I said "I'll absolve you of guilt" etc.

Unfortunately you came in and starting protesting to make her uncomfortable, so I doubted it's veracity. Still, I'm leaning Eidolon right now. But I want to hear her thoughts first.

[McStab]

So your argument, Eidolon, essentially boils down to the following:

1. I've done some questionable things:

A) I was on two information lynches. These lynches let me gather information about RC that led me to believe he was town. I believe I am correct on that. Even now, that information is paying dividends in that it flows with the idea that you are scum. One way or another, the Paschendale lynch had scum on it. The Whiskers lynch turned out poorly because he was Chosen. However, my "information lynch", if questionable, could've been accused yesterday by you.

If you believed Whiskers information lynch was bad, then why did you hammer? No, I stand by my decision yesterday as well. My information lynch has exposed you as likely scum and turned my LyLo decision from RC to you.

B) Your next point is that my experiment (to see if you would lynch off comfort) and Whiskers alignment are independent. This is blatantly not true. If you lynched when you felt comfortable at an easy opportunity and Whiskers flipped VT, it wouldn't be so condemning. But you literally began claiming intent to hammer very shortly after myself and inte through our support behind a Whiskers lynch. RC is all that delayed you, and that delay was a mere SIX HOURS. Six hours, with no word from Whiskers; you were lynching out of feeling more comfortable, not being more certain of his alignment.

C) My supposed "180s" throughout the game. My first "180" according to Eidolon, is that I decided to all of a sudden bus Greywing. After noticing how quickly things picked up against RC and how much pressure was on RGF relative to another lurker (crypto) I decided they were Chosen. I may have been incorrect, but at the time the logic seemed sound to me.

I was the first to target Greywing seriously. You were still attacking RC. You are blatantly misconstruing facts by claiming I jumped on board of Greywing when he was going down. NONSENSE. I pushed it from the start and I kept pushing until the last nail was in his coffin. I convinced people to hammer him. THIS WOULD MAKE NO SENSE AS SCUM. Greywing had NO pressure on him prior to my attacks. Stop trying to create a false history, Eidolon.

My second 180 according to Greywing was my switch on him. Well, the short story is, that switched pretty quickly upon you first being hesitant to hammer, and then, upon me giving you the OK, you deciding to hammer him. You still are surprised by my experiment; note the following statements Eidolon just made:

"Mcstab why did you go from saying you’re certain I’m town to saying that my affiliation depends on whisker’s flip?"

"Mcstab, you mentioned me this dp a couple times. Why do you think I’m scum? What are your thoughts about RC?"

"I think he was changing his mind deliberately to set up a mislynch on me today. He kept RC in the game because he was more predictably against me throughout the game."

Eidolon is still in shock that my experiment changed my mind. This is scum out of their comfort zone. I believe he left RC alive because I had, in the past, trusted Eidolon, and attacked RC. Now her supposed supporter in LyLo has changed against her, and she's reeling from the mistake she just made.


Now, time for the case on Eidolon (I will go into details on any of these points):

1. Mislynched Paschendale, but tried to sheep and buddy her old friend RC.
2. Killed Om to raise doubts that it was a scum wagon.
3. Tried to lynch RC the next day by sheeping me and Whiskers; this would let us (at least one, if not both of us, were chosen). This would let her lead our mislynches the next day.
4. Forced to buss Greywing after I vociferously attack him; still attempts to buddy to me. At this point, she starts taking potshots at Whiskers for the first time, because she knows she'll need to run up a Chosen Townie the next day.
5. Kills RGF because she needs my/inte/RC's support against Whiskers. Largely succesful in this endeavour; however RC changed views and decided to defend Whiskers.
6. Kills inte because inte considered quickhammering scummy (he repeatedly stated this) and assumed I would side with her against RC.
7. Shocked because my information/experiment worked yesterday and I've caught Eido-scum.
8. Left reeling and appealing to longtime friendship, because she knows trying to push an RC lynch after yesterday is suicide.

Vote:Eidolon

Rapidcanyon, I earnestly believe you must be town at this point. If I'm wrong, then I'm sorry Eidolon, but you've just been playing too obviously scummy the last two days, despite having me hoodwinked previously.

[McStab]

RC unvote FAST!

[McStab]

wait no quickhammer

[McStab]

Rc, i know you've been thinking im scum a lot this game, but i'll make a deal with you. If I end up being scum i'll send you a pic of my boobs. 100%. Promise. I have a bf so obviously i don't want to do that. That's how sure i am that i'm town.

Take that mcstab

I can't get in on this deal somehow

[McStab]

k, well the lack of quickhammer means Eidolon must be town.

Vote: Rapidcanyon

Eidolon, I'm sorry I doubted you. But I mean, look at that case. I really can't convince you about RC right off the bat now, because I was thinking you were scum. But by PoE RC must be scum to me

[McStab]

Well, looks like you'll have to send some pics

[McStab]

lolololol I'm just messing with everyone, I was the last scum.

Good job, I kinda got ninja'd near the end and screwed up LyLo. Good job town!

[McStab]

I really thought I had this game, that RC vote on me really messed me over. ARGH.

I should've left inte in here, he would've quickvoted one of you

[McStab]

Eidolon, could job switching against me in LyLo, I didn't think you would.

RC, good job throughout the whole game. I switched to bussing Greywing to try and save some face, because I missed my shot against you on Day Two.

[McStab]

Also good job to Whiskers for writing up a really convincing argument despite being hammered. Bit of a shame it took so long to go to Night, but most players (including myself) probably wouldn't bother writing a huge case after getting lynched.

[McStab]

Rc, i know you've been thinking im scum a lot this game, but i'll make a deal with you. If I end up being scum i'll send you a pic of my boobs. 100%. Promise. I have a bf so obviously i don't want to do that. That's how sure i am that i'm town.

Take that mcstab

I can't get in on this deal somehow

i barely know you! what do you take me for you freak. lol.

Compared to trying to convince you both that neither of you had quickhammered as scum, this would've been a walk in the park. Just kidding though haha, I figured I was losing and I didn't have any picture gambits to try

[McStab]

You were the other Chosen Townie, and we vetoed Crypto; big mistake there.

[McStab]

and sorry if I actually creeped you out Eidolon, it was a joke.

[McStab]

Can someone post the Dead QT?

[McStab]

Yeah, I think Midnight called it the "Green Room"

[McStab]

anyone care to post the dead QT?