Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[vettrock]

Ready...

[vettrock]

/red 5 standing by

Can you use the force to find scum? How about if you deactivate your targeting computer?

[vettrock]

VOTE: dodgy


for being a little dodgy...code for scummy.

[vettrock]

A haiku with truth:

Once upon a time,
Tean voted for a penguin,
due to being scum.

If Tean is scum, why are you not voting him?

[vettrock]

ok im going to get the ball started here. i havent played in this set up before. what are peoples thoughts on the mechanics of this game? or how are you planning on approaching this game?

I haven't played this setup before either. Seems to be a lot of variation. I'm just going to focus on scum hunting for now. After the first night, we will either have some power roles that find us some information, or we won't. If we don't have the power roles, that means there is less scum, if we do, it should be easier to find them. I don't think it pays to speculate at this point on the setup and play beyond that.

[vettrock]

ok im going to get the ball started here. i havent played in this set up before. what are peoples thoughts on the mechanics of this game? or how are you planning on approaching this game?

I haven't played this setup before either. Seems to be a lot of variation. I'm just going to focus on scum hunting for now. After the first night, we will either have some power roles that find us some information, or we won't. If we don't have the power roles, that means there is less scum, if we do, it should be easier to find them. I don't think it pays to speculate at this point on the setup and play beyond that.

So are you planning on scumhunting soon then? I dont really consider what you've done so far as scumhunting even though you're "focusing on it".

While there is 5 pages on content, I've not seen much that jumps out as alignment indicators yet. Everyone scumhunts in their own way. I'm not a good one for informationless RVS cases, but I think I can contribute more as we move along.

[vettrock]

I'm not a good one for informationless RVS cases, but I think I can contribute more as we move along.

yet you voted me on no information?

My vote on you was an RVS vote. Its only purpose is to get the game moving. As RVS votes move around information is created.

[vettrock]

I'm not a good one for informationless RVS cases, but I think I can contribute more as we move along.

yet you voted me on no information?

My vote on you was an RVS vote. Its only purpose is to get the game moving. As RVS votes move around information is created.

perhaps i misunderstood you when you said you werent a good one for informationless rvs cases? i read that as you saying youre not a fan of RVS voting. or did you mean something else?

I'm not good with informationless cases. (I don't think anyone is, but some people are more willing to push them than others.) I'm not a fan of RVS voting, but I acknowledge it help to move the game along to a point where RVS voting is not required anymore.

quick question for everyone? when someone is lynched/nked? what information is revealed. At Playdip i have played in games where allignment and role are revealed, games where only their allignment was revealed and even a couple of games where no information about the player killed was revealed. I just wanted to clarify what the case here?

Alignment and role is revealed upon death.

I mention it here because there are several players in the game who have seen me do it and may question why I didn't do it this time.

On another note, this is not town thinking... this is the thinking of someone who interested in looking town. town's job is to find scum and make themselves understood. they shouldnt be doing things because they care about there image. Scum want to look like town so they certainly have an interest in their image and looking like town.

This post makes me suspicious of you.

I would agree with this. Those overly concerned with maintaining a town look, and their own meta is moderately scummy.

[vettrock]

Also, super-close-to-chest right now, but I

may

have a second scumread.

I don't get the secrecy "close-to-chest" thing at this point of the game. At this point all reads are pretty speculative. Someone slipping and you are waiting form them to confirm it with some other action? About the only reason I can say for holding things back at this point in the game.

[vettrock]

@vettrock:

You've commented on the "looking town" conversation, but I don't see any comment on the wagon. Why so quiet?

Mostly because I'm undecided about the wagon. I need to do some more review/reads. I generally have a hard time with D1 as there isn't as much real information to base anything off of.

[vettrock]

can anyone make sense of why BBT is voting me?

This just looks like an OMGUS vote to me. Not sure what else to make of it.

[vettrock]

UNVOTE:
This kind of dumb play and "rage" combined with an early claim is very often town. The dog piling on the slot was also too quick for my liking.

Normally I would agree with you here and I’ll admit his reaction made me momentarily reconsider. But I get the impression that davesaz is experienced and savvy enough to realize that his claim and self vote thought are bad things to say as mafia. And I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen an experienced townie claim prematurely OR consider self voting, let alone both. Maybe I’ve never seen it happen. He should know that both actions are big “NO NOs” and I’m not buying the genuine town frustration theory. We had been voting him for what, a few hours?

I agree that self-voting and early claiming are anti-town, but what would be the motivation for doing it as scum? If town, I see him claiming VT as helping scum as it eliminates one person from the power role "pool". If scum, what does he gain? As for self-voting, when you are scum, to self-vote/hammer and shut down the conversation is about the only reason to do so. Threatening to self-vote to me makes you sound like a cry baby rather than making you scummy. How does scum benefit from the whiney, "I'm going to self-vote" line. One could make the argument that if we are going to lynch someone, it better to lynch someone who isn't helping town, than someone who is, but that is the only justification for a vote I can see from those two things at this point.

I don't get the secrecy "close-to-chest" thing at this point of the game.

At this point all reads are pretty speculative. Someone slipping and you are waiting form them to confirm it with some other action? About the only reason I can say for holding things back at this point in the game.

This is a weird thing for you to say given your play up to now.

Understandable. Mastin did say the reason I stated was her reason. I will say that I'm not holding back any reads at this point, I'm just still forming them, and I like to base them off of more information. I'm much more uncertain than I am secretive at this point.

[vettrock]

It's something I do as town and scum in games where I dont know most of the players, I guess. These ones all came from town-me.

...

Scum me.
...

Pulling your own meta, and showing you do things as scum as town, Especially to the point of pulling scum quote and town quotes, seems to be a little too focused ond manipulating and tracking their own meta. I would say slightly scummy, but more it mean you doing any kind of meta on eyestott is worthless as he is actively manipulating it.

[vettrock]

How sure are you of Dave being town (0-100)? I am confident if Dave is town at least 1 scum was on that wagon, too tempting to pass.

About 90%.
It's not only because I've seen this Davesaz posting style before. But also,
(1) his wagon was emerging very fast
(2) there was no real counterwagon pushed meanwhile (usually the scum try to derail a scum-wagon by building up a counterwagon).

So yes, there was at least one scum on that wagon.

I would never go as high as 90%, but I can follow that. I would agree scum would at least try and build a counterwagon, but they can't really do it by themselves, or someone with only one or two votes on them could be their planned counterwagon, as we still have some time before the deadline.

I need to do some more analysis before I come back with more definitive scumreads.

[vettrock]

I believe eyestott claim at this point. The chance of another full tracker is small enough that if another one was out there, the tiny chance of outing of two PR would be worth much more likely D1 scum lynch. Since no one has challenged it I'm going to assume it is valid. That puts him pretty firmly in town for now.

I've played with Aneinem before. (his first game on site) I think his posting style is the similar, (but improved readability). He is leaning town for now.

I've played with BBT before as well. He was town last time. I'm leaning town a bit with him as well, but only slightly.

Beastcharizard. Played briefly in a game I replaced into in the late stages. Doesn't have enough content for me to make a judgement.

Understand I haven't produced much as well. My other game on site is pretty much over, so I'll be concentrating on this on fully now.


Mastin seems way to0 confident. A quick look at some of her other games where she was town, it is consistent. Didn't see any scum games. Null not because there isn't content, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

copper-my read of his scum hunting is that it looks town. Asking another full tracker to claim at first seemed a bit scummy, but now that I've seen the math, I agree that it would be the best path.

Dave- I was getting early scum vibes in his defense as the wagon built against him. I think is still a decent lynch posibility. lean scum.

Dodgy- My vote on him was just an RVS, but I seem him as lean scum at this point, so I guess it isn't an RVS anymore. Nothing strong.

Tean - Leaning town

Heartless - Leaning scum.

KillP-Null. Not sure what to make of him yet.

I'm not all that confident in my reads yet. I have a hard time picking out things on D1. This is also my first non-Micro/Non-Newbie game (with the exception of a Large that I replaced into on D6) I wouldn't have thought that the additional players would make that much difference, but it is definitely more difficult to track and remember things with a Mini game. Hopefully, I can flesh these out better with some post and examples as time goes on. Its also a lot more difficult to follow when you have to read pages at a time rather than following as you go.

[vettrock]

VET'S reads list is nothing short of heinous and scummy as shit

I will somewhat agree with heinous, but not scummy. Some people are good with D1 reads and digesting massive amount of information quickly, but I'm not one of those people. I'll continue to provide input, and I should have some more time now for some analysis.

[vettrock]

(Honestly, as a vig I'd frankly just no-kill and play as if vanilla unless I deemed it necessary to make a kill.)

I general I agree with this, and how I would play it, especially early in the game. I think you are more likely to help scum than town. Late in the game however there may be a good case to use it.

[vettrock]

tth's internet crush is scum, btw

For reference, who is tth's internet crush?

[vettrock]

I'm not a good one for informationless RVS cases, but I think I can contribute more as we move along.

yet you voted me on no information?

My vote on you was an RVS vote. Its only purpose is to get the game moving. As RVS votes move around information is created.

perhaps i misunderstood you when you said you werent a good one for informationless rvs cases? i read that as you saying youre not a fan of RVS voting. or did you mean something else?

Since I didn't really answer this. I acknowledge RVS is a necessary part of the game. I have a hard time building any kind of a case or putting things together early in the game as I don't think there is much to go off of. I'd ideally start in D2, but the problem with replacing in, is you are replacing in with an existing history, which I don't really like either.

[vettrock]

658 - Vettrock, why is Anen town? Why am I town?

Are you seriously suggesting you left an RVS vote on Dodgy all this time? Even as his wagon was building you didn't think to take your RSV vote off? Hmm, I think I'd like to lynch you.

Why is tean town? Why is Heartless scum?

I am using the one sided meta which I know is bad in my determination of you (BBT) and Aneniem, but it is what I have to go off for now.

Did I leave my RVS vote on dodgy this whole time. Yes. Mostly due to me not having as much time to play, and that I didn't have any better prospects.

I will say all of my reads are weak reads with the exception of eyestott, who I'm putt fairly solidly on the town side. It is partially by POE and partially initial feeling.

[vettrock]

VET'S reads list is nothing short of heinous and scummy as shit

I will somewhat agree with heinous, but not scummy. Some people are good with D1 reads and digesting massive amount of information quickly, but I'm not one of those people. I'll continue to provide input, and I should have some more time now for some analysis.

(Honestly, as a vig I'd frankly just no-kill and play as if vanilla unless I deemed it necessary to make a kill.)

I general I agree with this, and how I would play it, especially early in the game. I think you are more likely to help scum than town. Late in the game however there may be a good case to use it.

tth's internet crush is scum, btw

For reference, who is tth's internet crush?

I'm not a good one for informationless RVS cases, but I think I can contribute more as we move along.

yet you voted me on no information?

My vote on you was an RVS vote. Its only purpose is to get the game moving. As RVS votes move around information is created.

perhaps i misunderstood you when you said you werent a good one for informationless rvs cases? i read that as you saying youre not a fan of RVS voting. or did you mean something else?

Since I didn't really answer this. I acknowledge RVS is a necessary part of the game. I have a hard time building any kind of a case or putting things together early in the game as I don't think there is much to go off of. I'd ideally start in D2, but the problem with replacing in, is you are replacing in with an existing history, which I don't really like either.

i was talking about copper, i was yanking his and tth's chain though.
this is your idea of analysis? commenting on an off-the-cuff comment from mastin about a hypothetical vig question and asking about a joke i made on page 2?

This is me reviewing the thread and commenting one the parts I didn't understand or had thoughts on.

[vettrock]

658 - Vettrock, why is Anen town? Why am I town?

Are you seriously suggesting you left an RVS vote on Dodgy all this time? Even as his wagon was building you didn't think to take your RSV vote off? Hmm, I think I'd like to lynch you.

Why is tean town? Why is Heartless scum?

I am using the one sided meta which I know is bad in my determination of you (BBT) and Aneniem, but it is what I have to go off for now.

Did I leave my RVS vote on dodgy this whole time. Yes. Mostly due to me not having as much time to play, and that I didn't have any better prospects.

I will say all of my reads are weak reads with the exception of eyestott, who I'm putt fairly solidly on the town side. It is partially by POE and partially initial feeling.

Just to be clear the POE and initial feeling part is in reference to my other read rather than my read of eyestott.

[vettrock]

I will say all of my reads are weak reads with the exception of eyestott, who I'm putt fairly solidly on the town side. It is partially by POE and partially initial feeling.

If your reads are weak reads, how can you have eyestott as town by PoE?

You don' have to trust any of my other reads, but you can trust my read on Eyestott as town.

[vettrock]

My vote on Eyestott, I bolded the part where I acknowledge Heartless post:

The discussion is going well so I am happy I didn't cause a premature lynch. I am fairly confident Eyestott is scum and

will vote for him as it has been pointed out that my vote on Tean isn't going to go anywhere.

I tribute this to him dropping off the radar by not posting much you will see in my read of his posts that I do not think he has contributed much for town.

vote: eyestott (L-1)

If you have a claim to make eyestott now is the time to do it.

If Heartless post was really on to something I wouldn't have made reference to it there.

Two things I would like to note here. First Killa moved off of the Tean wagon because it wasn't going anywhere, but seemed to stay on the Eyestott wagon until his recent move to copper) that also wasn't going anywhere. Could be just the timing of when the post were mean, but it sorta jumped out at me a bit.

The second item was for those complaining about eyestott and his early claim, clearly killa called for eyestott to make the claim, even though there was not intent to hammer.

Killa slides a bit more towards scummy.

[vettrock]

I am not suggesting that you asking for a claim was scummy. I was referring to the comment that eyestott claimed before intent to hammer was declared. I think by copper.

[vettrock]

I am not suggesting that you asking for a claim was scummy. I was referring to the comment that eyestott claimed before intent to hammer was declared. I think by copper.

Who is this addressed to?

He was not at L-1 and nobody stated intent to hammer on him.

All I was trying to address, is your post above states the Eyestott claimed, and no one one called for intent to hammer, and was not at L-1. However, clearly Killa asked for him to claim, and then he claim. I'm not sure this was the best move, but it appears to have at least stopped the wagon on him, and since I think he is town, that is a good thing.

How about you start contributing some actual reads rather than some tit bit inaccurate notes. How do you know I wouldn't have hammered eyestott given the chance? Many others thought he was pretty scummy at that time.

Speaking of intention were is your contribution to the game so far?
Have you followed through on that scum hunting you promised to do?
At the moment I mostly just seeing conservative filler posts from you. 658 is about your first attempt to actually give reads and they are mostly null, which begs the question how at over 600 posts in do you not have anything more than weak reads? Some of the 'reads' are not even justified.
696 you excuse your poor read list
the posts that follow are more 'I can't make judgements this early/D1' and yet you can say with certainty that Eyestott is town? Without even citing a reason as to why?

It is easy to criticise when you do nothing to contribute, I see your RVS vote has been stuck on dodgy since post 53 it doesn't even look like you have made much of an attempt to follow the game.

I'll "play a mastin" here and say I have my reasons for the eyestott read but it is probably not best to reveal them now. Assuming I'm not dead, I will explain it in the future, for certain.
UNVOTE:

I'll go ahead and unvote.

I'm inclined to vote dave, but I don't think we are ready for a lynch yet, and I think he is already at L-1.

Yes there is 900+ posts. If all it took for town to catch scum was 900 posts town would always win. I don't like copper since his vengeful claim, but I'm not sure we should test him on the chance that we are wrong.

[vettrock]

The main wagons are on people I have town reads on.

please explain your townread on tean for me?

Here's that Tean thing I was looking up.

Spoiler: wall prevention

93 - penwin scum analysis

97 - vettrock not scum hunting

163 - BBT coasting

182, 189 - my reads list is filler (incorrect but at least it's something)

231 saying i'm active on site but not working here. eyestott opportunistic. penwin salty. dodgy inquisitive, wicked informative (I would use insightful)

530. penwin not hunting. things wouldn't end up well -> vengeful crumb?
asks penwin about people idolizing mastin
says that my 312 means that i wouldn't play optimally as either scum or town

589 clarifies that penwin didn't post "things wouldnt end up well", editing errors. I confirmed that nobody said those exact words. Penwin did say that Tean wasn't looking good.

705 explains the "idolizing mastin" thing, calls eyestott a white knight to mastin and a cheerleader for the wagon
says their vote on me is for reasons other than the cheerleading
Dodgy's vote was too eager to be towny

706 eye and dodgy are not likely to both be scum. if one is scum the other is likely town

708 bbt is town but not completely so

898 my focus is in the wrong place

922 acknowledges that i have pointed out discrepancies in how i'm treated vs others, but questions some of the links

967 again with calling some of the links filler

I think this is probably town. 231, 705, and 706 are quite accurate. 898 is an opinion that town should have. It may even be a little true, though I of course will continue to defend my defensiveness. 922 I see town conceding points a lot more often than scum, and keeping the doubts there and again in 967 isn't something that scum often do -- scum would either capitulate or press harder, the middle road response is much more townie.

I probably should have paid attention to the vote progression, but did not take notes on that.

I'll put the two together for you. (you have to open the spoiler)

I have read the game and am following it, I just haven't had as much time as I would like to put together much of a case

I am putting wicked on my town list below eyestott. His posts all seem to make sense and are well reasoned and supported with evidence.

I have copper leaning scum at this point, but I'm not confident enough to risk the vengeful kill, so I don't think we should lynch him.

I think dave is the best option. He appears more town later, but I am going to write this off as scum trying to save themselves. He is definitely the best of any of the "non-vanity" wagons for today.
VOTE: dave

That is L-1.

Tean appears town to me. He has called me out a few time for lack of content (which he is not the only one, and it is certainly deserved) but it appears motivated to get me to post rather than just using it as a reason to call me scum. While this isn't the best reason and is a little OMGUS'y

Heartless on the other side appears more to just write me off as scum since I haven't contributed as much at this point. Also a bit on the OMGUS.

Mastin while her behavior matches her meta(although there is no scum to compare), I can't say I like it. It seems very arbitrary.

[vettrock]

If scum, you wouldn’t be ‘playing to win’ unless you made an active effort to manipulate your meta… If you were scum, why wouldn’t you just play the same way?

I asked when I did it successfully. Also, there is no benefit of lurking at this time. Late game sure lurking has its benefit, but early game it is a death sentence. I have my reasons for not being around and yes it is a strategy. If dave is scum it totally worked.

This bothers me a bit. I've certainly not been around or providing as much content as I would like. Partially because D1 tends to be difficult for me, and partially because I haven't had as much time as I would like. But to say that his lurking was strategy is definately scummy in my book. Not the lynch for today, but something to consider in the future.

[vettrock]

Phoneposting.

They are two very strabge kills. I don't give a shit what people say about NKA, they are weird kills. Need to take a serious look at Heartless and Mastin, they're either horribly wrong in their reads or they're sxum/SK

Eyestott claimed tracker, and scum would have every reason to believe him. Most people don't lie as town. I don't see how you can see this as strange. dodgy you can at least make the argument. This seems to me to be a bit of casting doubt around such as scum would do.

VOTE: eyestott would be my vote at this point.

I often respond to a non-RVS "naked vote", i.e. a vote with little/no surrounding explanation, by immediately calling it out as naked and voting for that player.
I'll give you a pass this time because you got some reasons posted before I had a chance to act.
I mention it here because there are several players in the game who have seen me do it and may question why I didn't do it this time.

Question re: buddying. Do you view different types of helpful posts differently?

ill cop

that. i had stated some concerns earlier about eyestott but i probably should have stated them when i made my vote.

in regard ti your question. i judge posts based on context and content. so its a case by case situation.
I think with this if it had been anyone else i would probably feel a bit more comfortable with it as a welcome post. i think because i know eyestott from playdip, it changed my view of it to a certain extent.

When looking for a crumb from dodgy, I found the above. While he obviously wasn't a cop, I can see scum seeing that and thinking he may be a Role Cop.

Based on the PRs revealed and the two kills, I am going to assume we have three scum, and one Serial killer, although it is possible that the second kill was a Vig kill.

I would like to assume there is at least one of the scum on the eyestott wagon, and at least one scum on the daves wagon. Since eyestott and dodgy are town, on the daves wagon:
Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, copper223, Tean Samargo, Heartless, beastcharizard, vettrock,
On the eystott wagon:
BlueBloodedToffee, copper223, Mastin2

I've said I found copper scummy before and to clarify, if he is vengeful, I didn't support lynching him as if he is town, he was most likely going to bring down another townie with him, as he was saying he was going to shoot eyestott, or me, both of which I know are town.

With reagard to Heartless, I think part of the reason I was scum reading them, is what I would call the disconnect between the two heads. Although they sign and long time players can distinguish them, I sort of jam them together as one person, and it seems inconsistent. I haven't really played with Hydras before. Tean seems more unified, or one of the heads has done more of the posting, not sure which.

I'm suspicous of beast since he posted that his lurking was intentional and strategic. He is my tentative read for the serial killer for that.

For scum at the moment I'm looking at Mastin and BBT. Mastin everything seems arbitary. She was pushing both of the wagons. For BBT see above.

[vettrock]

there's a 1% chance there's 2 k's.

Pretty sure that math's wrong.

For the record, tean/vettock/eyestott/dave is where I'm looking at for scum mainly. Obviously, they can't all be scum, but I'm preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetty sure we've got at least two in there, and with luck, three.

You have at least three town in there....

[vettrock]

This seems a little bit convenient and hard to believe. Can you help

me

understand why you would have unvoted? You must have seen something strong if you were willing to unvote a player (so close to deadline) that you had been strongly scum reading all game…

Okay. So before, dave was kinda beetelgeuising. (Or however it's spelled.) Coming in when in danger, but otherwise lurking. Not providing much content, and when giving content, not putting much push in it.

On that last day, true, dave if scum

could

have been fighting to save his life...but very, very obviously

wasn't

. He was giving reads, and reasoning, and basically spamposting. He gave more activity in that short window than basically the entirety of D1. Furthermore, he did so without an ulterior motive: he knew he was getting lynched, thus, there was no directing the lynch elsewhere. EVEN IF it was possible, he stubbornly insisted on voting me instead of any actual viable wagon, effectively further condemning himself. He displayed a fair amount of confidence, borderline arrogance (not to mention reads that were very emotionally driven and inaccurate, but clearly coming from a town mindset, i.e. thinking both Anti and I were scum), in his callouts, making pleas for what to be done after he died. He was very active, he was giving lots of reasons, he was interacting with everyone...he was doing everything that I'd look for in a town player, ESPECIALLY at deadline, all at once.

Damned right I'd have unvoted had I been around. If I gave the description I am giving right here, right now, about dave, unvoted him, and you were on the wagon...wouldn't you? It's the reason I owe dave an apology.

I have to agree that is convenient and hard to believe. I voted dave. I was wrong, but he was the best scum read that I had who had a viable wagon. So you are saying you would have dropped off and caused a NoLynch?

[vettrock]

It would not be a stretch, but it's at least inaccurate and I've expressed my opinion of why hardcore lurking is less likely to be scum than people make it out to be in multiple games, it goes against scum's wincon

and I've yet to see a hardcore lurker flip scum

(so I might be biased by my sample size), an opinion I have expressed in multiple games where my alignment is verifiable.

This is a lie.

A game that I was in:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=59912
SXLTHGaiden Hardcore Lurked. And I am Hardcore. And he was scum.

[vettrock]

It would not be a stretch, but it's at least inaccurate and I've expressed my opinion of why hardcore lurking is less likely to be scum than people make it out to be in multiple games, it goes against scum's wincon

and I've yet to see a hardcore lurker flip scum

(so I might be biased by my sample size), an opinion I have expressed in multiple games where my alignment is verifiable.

This is a lie.

A game that I was in:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=59912
SXLTHGaiden Hardcore Lurked. And I am Hardcore. And he was scum.

Should say "and I mean Hardcore." 20 posts over 21 pages. The mod had more posts than he did.

[vettrock]

Oh, one more question: have you ever apologized to a player you’ve mislynched or tried to mislynch before?

All the time. As town, it's an obligation of mine to apologize. If I take place in the lynching of town, I have failed.

This is an answer to a question asked which would be a normal town response.

...Now, different story as scum. I'll apologize, but I keep it entirely in the mafia QT/PT when doing so. "Sorry I lynched you, but, yaknow, scum, kinda had to and all that", type of stuff.

This addition however seems to show a little too much awareness of her own meta, and an attempt to say, "See, I'm not scum, I did that thing I don't do as scum."

[vettrock]

@Vettrock
Gaiden always lurks, if he would start posting he would be instalynched, he lurked there most likely because his meta only lets him play like that, it was a valid strategy for him.

@Killa
Your point on Beast is good, maybe he is abusing his meta here, idk.

So if Gaiden always lurks, that would seem to disprove that you have never seen a hard core lurker flip scum, assuming you read the game I posted.

[vettrock]

Phoneposting:
To explain the misding names on thw agons, I looked at the vote count posts from the mid and built my list that way. Who am I missing?

[vettrock]

Maybe this is just town self imploding and it's Tean/Beast and either Vettrock or Aneninen doing nothing.

At this stage, I GUARANTEE you vettock is scum.

Tean's an

extremely

likely candidate for being scum as well.

Ditto for a third; haven't compiled all my notes, yet.

Guarentee is a pretty strong word considering I am town. I just need to figure out if you are misguided town, or scum. You were pretty confident on dave too, except when you weren't online to unvote...if you try that two days in a row, people might get suspicous.

Also on my wagon lists with not listing everyone, i took off the three dead people as they are not potentially scum at this point.

[vettrock]

@Mastin
Did you consider Vettrock's read on Eyestott yesterday? Why does scum Vettrock say he is sure the tracker is town?

@Vettrock
Why were you certain of your Eyestott read yesterday?

It was related to the claim, and the lack of the counter claim, I think that is enough for now.

[vettrock]

Because it's by far the most likely scenario given the claims and the kills.

In order for there to be two scum and one SK, there would have to be TTTTT. Given that we know that we have at least one I, and one P, that leaves no other power roles. Since copper is claiming vengeful, I'm not sure how he can come to this conclusion unless his claim is fake. Assuming his claim is valid, there has to be three scum and a serial killer: TTT. If there was a vig, that would mean for his claim to be true, it would have to be IPKK?TT. I think the TTT is more likely, so I don't think there is a vig.

I am leaning towards copper, mastin2 and BBT as the scum. Two of them also happen to be voting me, but I at least like to think it is not solely a OMGUS vote on my part. Mastin seems the most likely to me.
VOTE: Mastin2

[vettrock]

Because it's by far the most likely scenario given the claims and the kills.

In order for there to be two scum and one SK, there would have to be TTTTT. Given that we know that we have at least one I, and one P, that leaves no other power roles. Since copper is claiming vengeful, I'm not sure how he can come to this conclusion unless his claim is fake. Assuming his claim is valid, there has to be three scum and a serial killer: TTT. If there was a vig, that would mean for his claim to be true, it would have to be IPKK?TT. I think the TTT is more likely, so I don't think there is a vig.

I am leaning towards copper, mastin2 and BBT as the scum. Two of them also happen to be voting me, but I at least like to think it is not solely a OMGUS vote on my part. Mastin seems the most likely to me.
VOTE: Mastin2

Also, I'm leaning toward BC still as the serial killer, but I'm less certain of that.

[vettrock]

Because it's by far the most likely scenario given the claims and the kills.

In order for there to be two scum and one SK, there would have to be TTTTT. Given that we know that we have at least one I, and one P, that leaves no other power roles. Since copper is claiming vengeful, I'm not sure how he can come to this conclusion unless his claim is fake. Assuming his claim is valid, there has to be three scum and a serial killer: TTT. If there was a vig, that would mean for his claim to be true, it would have to be IPKK?TT. I think the TTT is more likely, so I don't think there is a vig.
I am leaning towards copper, mastin2 and BBT as the scum. Two of them also happen to be voting me, but I at least like to think it is not solely a OMGUS vote on my part. Mastin seems the most likely to me.
VOTE: Mastin2

Seriously, though, this is fucking

opportunistic. as.

hell

.

*evidence copper is probably scum*
*votes Mastin*
*Especially when both Copper and BBT want to lynch me*

I would consider voting BBT, copper or beast, but as they have no existing wagon, I selected you.

[vettrock]

@Vettrock

In order for there to be two scum and one SK, there would have to be TTTTT. Given that we know that we have at least one I, and one P, that leaves no other power roles. Since copper is claiming vengeful, I'm not sure how he can come to this conclusion unless his claim is fake. Assuming his claim is valid, there has to be three scum and a serial killer: TTT. If there was a vig, that would mean for his claim to be true, it would have to be IPKK?TT. I think the TTT is more likely, so I don't think there is a vig.

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, (Serial Killer*)

TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

This is the setup on the wiki, I believe with 6T's the serial killer is missing see (*) because it would make little sense otherwise, at the moment it's very likely it's either 7, 6 or 5.

If there are 5T's, then 2 Pr's were killed =7, 3 are scum or SK = 10, there are 3 PR's missing (=13), one of which is me, what are you talking about?

@Mastin
I don't like your wagon, I'll check Tean again when I have time.

@TTH
Tell us when you need to start to physically threatening your partner, you tell me you are not scum because you are both still posting and proceed to conform to your scum meta.

There are seven letters that are rolled. We know that there is at least one I and one P due to eyestott and dodgy. That means there would be a maximum of 5 T's. If there are 5 T's, There is two scum and one Serial killer, and your claim is bogus.

TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

If your claim is true, there is at least IPK and 4 T's. There is no serial killer when there is 4 T's:

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

Since in order for there to be a vig in addition, another K would be required, there can be no more than 3 T's, which means 3 scum, and a serial killer, if your claim is true:

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

Two T's would be possible with a vig, and also 1 T (with serial killer) and zero T's with a vig, but all have three scum.

I think the most likely scenario is that there are 3 scum, and a serial killer. It is possible copper just doesn't know how to add. Three T's is the most likely of these as I think the fewer T's the more unlikely the scenario.

[vettrock]

Everyone: do not claim!!!

I agree we should not claim.

Also, he mentions (1198) that Copper's claim may be fake – but he still goes on with the assumption that the claim is real (and tries to explain that there must be an SK).

I think we can be pretty sure that there is serial killer. Even if Copper's claim is false, if there is at least one other power role out there, there are three scum.

Post-edit.
Vettrock, 1210

"I think the most likely scenario is that there are 3 scum, and a serial killer.

It is possible copper just doesn't know how to add.

Three T's is the most likely of these as I think the fewer T's the more unlikely the scenario."

Need. I. Say. More?

I'm scum with copper because I said he can't add? Huh? Not sure if you are trying to say I wouldn't insult my scum partner that way, or that I'm bussing/accusing his math skills.?

[vettrock]

You noticed that his speculation made no sense if his claim was real. Yet your conclusion was that he couldn't add the T's and you voted for Mastin.
By the way, you posted a lot about Copper's setup speculation and you hadn't mention that we shouldn't claim before I posted the same.
If you

really

had been against a massclaim you could have posted it zillions of times. Instead of doing so, you were explaining that we must have an SK – thanks, but I too explained it a couple of times before.

I'm still scumreading copper. To say that it is possible that he can't add wasn't really to give him a pass. The reason I'm hesitent to lynch him is the same reason as before, if he is truely vengeful, I'm not sure we can risk it. Given that there are three scum and a SK out there, I chose to go after another target which is a more viable lynch at this time, but because of the existing wagon, and the less vengeful risk.

So everyone else who hasn't said they are against the massclaim, if they post now they are scum because they could have said it before as well? I'm just not sure the massclaim will do anything but out the other power roles. If there are three scum and a SK, there are two other power roles out there.

[vettrock]

@Vettrock
I did not read the part about how the mod

rolls only 7

letters and fills out the rest, if you look at my post you can see what I'm doing by adding the PR's.

This helps a lot in narrowing it down thought, my guess is we are either:

- TTTTIPK which means 3 scum and no SK

or

- TTTIIPK which means 3 scum and an SK, so if we don't lynch correctly this game is over. I think this is where we are at.

So basically most of you are scum is what this says... no wonder this game doesn't make any sense.

If we are:
- TTTTIPK which means 3 scum and no SK
How do you explain the two kills? In order for there to be a second kill, there would need to be another K (vig) or a SK, therefore there cannot be 4 T's unless your claim is bogus, and there are no other power roles out there. I'm currently going with your claim is likely bogus, and there are other power roles out there, so assuming 3 scum and SK.

[vettrock]

Fuck it, I think it's pretty clear Vettrock is hinting at being 1-shot tracker and that's why he was sure of Eyestott yesterday. That is why I think we are in the PKIITTT setup.

My lack of knowledge is neither scum nor town indicative, it shows I did not put the proper time to evaluate this game, if you know me this should tell you what that likely means for my alignment, but that's speculation, BBT's phrasing is indicative of someone that knows I can only be vengeful and that is why it likely is a slip.

Since it is out there, I am the one shot tracker. If you read through my ISO, you can probably see some hints.

[vettrock]

I will say all of my reads are weak reads with the exception of eyestott, who I'm putt fairly solidly on the town side. It is partially by POE and partially initial feeling.

If your reads are weak reads, how can you have eyestott as town by PoE?

You don' have to trust any of my other reads, but you can trust my read on Eyestott as town.

@Mastin
Did you consider Vettrock's read on Eyestott yesterday? Why does scum Vettrock say he is sure the tracker is town?

@Vettrock
Why were you certain of your Eyestott read yesterday?

It was related to the claim, and the lack of the counter claim, I think that is enough for now.

Everyone: do not claim!!!

I agree we should not claim.

Also, he mentions (1198) that Copper's claim may be fake – but he still goes on with the assumption that the claim is real (and tries to explain that there must be an SK).

I think we can be pretty sure that there is serial killer. Even if Copper's claim is false, if there is at least one other power role out there, there are three scum.

a few hints. There is probably more.

[vettrock]

Once again, I want a massclaim.

While I was against this before because I was fine with the hint rather that the outright claim for myself. I think the likelyhood of 6PRs is small. If there is another power role out there, it means copper is scum. If there is no powerrole, I would be forced to believe copper is telling the truth. If scum fake claims, we can lynch copper, and he will shoot the fake claimer. If the other claim was true, copper was scum and is lynched, and the other claim is conf-town Either way, we get one scum for one town. If no one claims, I think we have to believe copper.

[vettrock]

Copper, I have my reasons and would like for vet to answer

I did not track last night, I thought I would be better tonight when there is less to pick from. Likely not the best choice In hindsight.

[vettrock]

Unless we are in the 5%, one of copper and BBT is scum. If we are in the 5%, there is another town PR out there. I am leaning towards BBT being the scum rather than copper, however consider this:

If we lynch copper and he is telling the truth and is vengful, he can shoot BBT, who is then most probably scum. If copper flips scum, BBT can hide behind someone, and that would make him, killa and who ever he hides behind confirmed town. Either way, we have one scum dead.

The problem with copper's vengful power role is it is only really useful if we lynch him. Thoughts?

[vettrock]

Barring Team making a PR claim, one of copper, BBT, or me is scum and lying about their role. I'm leaning toward BBT, but given the power roles they claimed, I think copper is the safer lynch for town. If he truely is town, BBT is scum and he can venge kill him. If he flips scum, BBT can hide behind someone to escape the nightkill which makes him a safer PR to leave in the game.

I'm likely to be nightkilled. But will say if both flip town, I will 100% say you can lynch me. Unless someone is lying about their claim, one of the two has to be scum.

VOTE: copper

[vettrock]

IIPHKTT

Cooper: Vengeful
BBT: Hide
Vettrock: 1-shot Tracker
Beast: VT
Mastin: VT
Heartless: VT
Anen: VT
Killa: VT
Wicked:
Tean:

This is where I am at. After the last two claims I might introduce a tin-foil hat theory for the scum team.

Town:
Anen
Mastin
Vettrock
Killa

Null:
Wicked
Tean

Scum:
Cooper
Heartless
BBT

Those are my reads. No this isn't my tin-foil hat scum team and one of the nulls is probably SK.

If there are only two T's, there is no serial killer, therefore one of the claims has to be lying, or one of the VT's is a PR and there is only one T.

[vettrock]

I don't disagree, they literally don't make sense because the support does not allow for them, otherwise an SK would not be in the game.

I will give you the benefit of being able to realize those reads are impossible if you genuinenly thought about it as town, hence you presenting that crap makes you likely scum just pulling out some convenient scumreads.

They make no sense to YOU. Keyword there is YOU.

Town:
Anen - I feel like what they say comes from a town POV. I just like them. You could chalk this up to gut I guess.
Mastin - I feel like mastin has this ego that gets in her way. It isn't an undeserved ego persay but it still gets in her way. She reminds me of when she defended me for fake claiming the same thing as my scum partner in a large theme recently.
Vettrock - Claim
Killa - They don't shut up about wanting to lynch me. It doesn't feel like a push for a mislynch from scum because scum would eventually give up and be like: "Fuck it, beast isn't happening so lets find someone else." Also, scum would want to keep me alive because I was behind and useless.

Null:
Wicked - I don't really remember anything about them.
Tean - I don't know anything about them.

Scum:
Cooper - If any PR is scum it is you. I don't see any town motivation from this slot.
Heartless - Already said my case about them reminding me of that other game.
BBT - Kind of explained this but they have inconsistencies with their claim and actions.

We still have Tean to claim.

If we assume Tean claims VT, one of the three PR is scum. From my point of view that is copper or BBT. Like I said before, I'm leaning towards BBT, but copper is the safer lynch. Hider is much more valuable to town if true, and if copper is town and vengeful, he can take down scum with him. This is a one town for one scum trade. If copper is scum, we just lynched scum, and the hider if he chooses wisely is still around tomorrow, and is conf town along with Killa and whoever he hides behind.

If Tean claims a PR, either two of the claims are lying (I'd lean towards Tean being one of them), or all 4 are town. If 4 PRs are true this means that there was 6 PR's in the game which (assuming the earlier math is correct) is a 5% chance. This still leads me to believe with 95% certainty that one of copper and BBT is scum.

I really do think that going down the lynch beastcharizard route is still the best to go, we don't end up lynching a PR prematurely and after the night deaths we will have a good idea on who is scum.

One of the PRs is very, very likely scum. Much more likely than any other VT claimed player at this point.

[vettrock]

i mean... seriously

hider is such an innocuous thing to crumb early on (just put "hide" "hidden" some permutation of that in a post)
and bbt didn't do it

I have also thought of other potential motivations behind it but I'm going to keep them

hidden

for now.

Might be the first time I've ever crumbed,

BBT claimed a crumb.

The titus claim doesn't really change that one of copper, BBT or me has to be scum. It is changing a T for a K.
Assuming Titus is town:
If copper is scum we have:
IIPKHTT. The K is titus, and there is no serial killer.

If BBT is scum, we have:
IIPKKTT Titus and copper are the two K's, and there is no serial killer.


If Titus is lying, he is either the serial killer, or someone else is and he is scum:
If copper is scum, we have:
IIPHTTT and we have a serial killer.
If BBT is scum we have:
IIPKTTT and we have a serial killer.

From my view this means one of copper and BBT is scum. If we lynch copper's slot, and he shoots BBT, we have one dead scum. If copper is scum, we have one dead scum.


This is the best plan from my view.

[vettrock]

I don't see any permutations where one of copper and BBT are not scum.

To answer Titus questions about me not tracking. I did think my hints were probably a little more subtle than they actually turned out to be, but there were at least some people that didn't see them. I did not expect to be called out, so that everyone one knew. I was generally lacking any good scum reads at the end of D1, so I assumed my chances would be better D2 assuming I was still alive.

[vettrock]

I am asking if ppl saw crumbs. Me blind 2 crumbs. U should lrn that.

I couldn't find any crumbs from dodgy, other than one that could have been mistaken for a cop crumb. Nothing about who he would have jailkept.

[vettrock]

Can someone tell me why we're not lynching Copper?

Like I have said before, one of copper and BBT is scum. The Titus claim doesn't change that unless there was a double kill between the SK and vig, or vig and scum, or SK and scum. I'll look at how the double kill possability changes things later, and let everyone know.

[vettrock]

We're not lynching the Copper-slot until it gets filled.

But, I'm summarizing my case against Copper (you can find more information about every points in my previous posts).

Whoever replaces Copper, read this post to understand why I'm scumreading your slot! So, this post is for you in advance.

You must also know this:

because of the claims, the flips and the Nightkills, it's very likely that one of the PR-claims is fake.

It's also possible that two claims are fake. It's highly unlikely, although not impossible that all of the claims are real or three of the claims are fake. Titus's claim is real unless there are exactly two fake claims (in which case it may be fake).


(1) On Day1, after EyeStott's claim he wanted to get a counterclaim from the town. He outed Vettrock on Day2. (He said that he had seen Vettrock's hints but a scum can spot those hints too.) He was the one who had wanted a mass-claim all the time. –

Copper was rolefishing.

(2) On early Day2 he backed his desire for a massclaim with a Setup speculation but he contradicted himself in many cases. (Eg. he admitted after we'd pointed out certain errors in his posts that he hadn't read the town-PR generating mechanism on the Wiki but he made assumptions which showed that he

had read

the Wiki thoroughly.) –

He was lying and he was using "Information instead of Analysis".

(3) He also kept saying that I was misrepresenting him. Eg. he posted that I wanted to auto-lynch him, but I had been posting a zillions of times that we should discuss about him before voting for him and I eventually voted for Copper much later. He said that it had been me who had forced Vettrock to claim. In reality, I asked a question about his setup speculation (he included a PR which had never mentioned before!) and he was the one who outed Vettrock. –

He was misrepresenting me.

There were other things as well, but these are the cornerstones of my case.

The main problem with lynching the Copper-slot is the risk.

If my reads are wrong and he (you) Venge-kills a townie, the game is likely lost. (You can read more about this topic in many of the recent posts.)

If there was not a double-kill or a serial killer who did not kill, exactly one of copper, BBT, and me is lying about the claim. This is the only way it works out. If we put a Z for the titus slot that is T if he is a serial killer and a K if he is VIG, we have:

IIPKZTT if BBT is scum.
IIPHZTT if copper is scum.
IPHKZTT if I am scum. (I am not scum, but including for completeness sake).

If Titus is lying, and he is the serial killer it does not change anything. If he is telling the truth and is the town Vig, it does not change anything. If Titus is lying and he is scum, there has to be a serial killer, which means either 1, 3, or 5 Ts.

For there to be 5 T's, all claims would have to be false: IPTTTTT, this means, copper, BBT, and Titus and me would have to be scum. Since this is 4 scum, this is impossible since with 5 T's there are only two scum, and a serial killer.

If there are 3 T's the setup would be:
IIPHTTT or IIPKTTT, which would mean that Titus is scum AND one of copper and BBT is scum.

If there is 1 T, this is not possible if Titus is scum (The case where he is not is already covered above), unless there is another town with a PR that claimed VT.
IIPKHT?

In summary, one of BBT and copper has to be scum, and only one of the two. Titus can be Vig, SK, or scum, but I think it is most likely that he is either VIG or SK.

If copper is scum, Killa, BBT, and me are all confirmed town.
If the VIG does not shoot, we are left with (assuming I am nightkilled)
three confirmed town(if the hide is successful), one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 2 other VTs.


If BBT is scum, copper, and I are confirmed town. If the VIG does not shoot, I will likely be killed, which would leave:
one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 4 other VTs.

To cover all possibilities, If copper and BBT are both town, that would mean I am scum. If copper vengekills BBT and he flips town, Titus can shoot me, (even if he is a SK) and this would prevent a scum win. Killa would be confirmed town, 2 scum, 3 unconfirmed town, and Titus who is either a SK or town VIG. This is 4 or 5 town vs. 2 scum, which still gives us good odds of winning.

[vettrock]

We're not lynching the Copper-slot until it gets filled.

But, I'm summarizing my case against Copper (you can find more information about every points in my previous posts).

Whoever replaces Copper, read this post to understand why I'm scumreading your slot! So, this post is for you in advance.

You must also know this:

because of the claims, the flips and the Nightkills, it's very likely that one of the PR-claims is fake.

It's also possible that two claims are fake. It's highly unlikely, although not impossible that all of the claims are real or three of the claims are fake. Titus's claim is real unless there are exactly two fake claims (in which case it may be fake).


(1) On Day1, after EyeStott's claim he wanted to get a counterclaim from the town. He outed Vettrock on Day2. (He said that he had seen Vettrock's hints but a scum can spot those hints too.) He was the one who had wanted a mass-claim all the time. –

Copper was rolefishing.

(2) On early Day2 he backed his desire for a massclaim with a Setup speculation but he contradicted himself in many cases. (Eg. he admitted after we'd pointed out certain errors in his posts that he hadn't read the town-PR generating mechanism on the Wiki but he made assumptions which showed that he

had read

the Wiki thoroughly.) –

He was lying and he was using "Information instead of Analysis".

(3) He also kept saying that I was misrepresenting him. Eg. he posted that I wanted to auto-lynch him, but I had been posting a zillions of times that we should discuss about him before voting for him and I eventually voted for Copper much later. He said that it had been me who had forced Vettrock to claim. In reality, I asked a question about his setup speculation (he included a PR which had never mentioned before!) and he was the one who outed Vettrock. –

He was misrepresenting me.

There were other things as well, but these are the cornerstones of my case.

The main problem with lynching the Copper-slot is the risk.

If my reads are wrong and he (you) Venge-kills a townie, the game is likely lost. (You can read more about this topic in many of the recent posts.)

If there was not a double-kill or a serial killer who did not kill, exactly one of copper, BBT, and me is lying about the claim. This is the only way it works out. If we put a Z for the titus slot that is T if he is a serial killer and a K if he is VIG, we have:

IIPKZTT if BBT is scum.
IIPHZTT if copper is scum.
IPHKZTT if I am scum. (I am not scum, but including for completeness sake).

If Titus is lying, and he is the serial killer it does not change anything. If he is telling the truth and is the town Vig, it does not change anything. If Titus is lying and he is scum, there has to be a serial killer, which means either 1, 3, or 5 Ts.

For there to be 5 T's, all claims would have to be false: IPTTTTT, this means, copper, BBT, and Titus and me would have to be scum. Since this is 4 scum, this is impossible since with 5 T's there are only two scum, and a serial killer.

If there are 3 T's the setup would be:
IIPHTTT or IIPKTTT, which would mean that Titus is scum AND one of copper and BBT is scum.

If there is 1 T, this is not possible if Titus is scum (The case where he is not is already covered above), unless there is another town with a PR that claimed VT.
IIPKHT?

In summary, one of BBT and copper has to be scum, and only one of the two. Titus can be Vig, SK, or scum, but I think it is most likely that he is either VIG or SK.

If copper is scum, Killa, BBT, and me are all confirmed town.
If the VIG does not shoot, we are left with (assuming I am nightkilled)
three confirmed town(if the hide is successful), one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 2 other VTs.


If BBT is scum, copper, and I are confirmed town. If the VIG does not shoot, I will likely be killed, which would leave:
one SK or VIG, 2 scum, and 4 other VTs.

To cover all possibilities, If copper and BBT are both town, that would mean I am scum. If copper vengekills BBT and he flips town, Titus can shoot me, (even if he is a SK) and this would prevent a scum win. Killa would be confirmed town, 2 scum, 3 unconfirmed town, and Titus who is either a SK or town VIG. This is 4 or 5 town vs. 2 scum, which still gives us good odds of winning.

I welcome town to shoot any holes in this theory. It seems pretty sure given the possible setups.

[vettrock]

What about bus drivers?

The bus driver is a night action, so it wouldn't affect the vengekill. If copper or BBT is scum, it doesn't affect that. Before I was leaning more towards BBT, but I'm leaning more copper now.

It would potentially affect the hider, or you shooting me. The other thing is the bus driver only exists if you are telling the truth about the VIG claim and are not the serial killer.

The bus driver is also one-shot, so there is the potential they used it already. They also can't use it on both the hider and re-directing a VIG shot.

So if copper and BBT are both town, and I am scum, they could potentaily re-direct the shot to someone else. If you do not shoot, the next day would start with either 4 town and 3 scum, or 3 town, one serial killer. I would be guarenteed scum, the serial killer would have to vote with town to kill me. Anyone opposed to killing me could just as well claim scum at that point. After the quicklynch of me on D3, there would be another night kill and there would be 2 scum and 3 town, or 2 scum, 2 town and 1 SK. It would be in the scums best interest at this point to kill the VIG/SK, so I wouldn't expect the 2/2/1. If the scum don't kill the SK over night, if they want to win, they would have to do it N4 to prevent the 1/1/1 result. I would expect a 3p Lylo.


However, all of the above is theorical, and doesn't matter since I'm not scum. If you are reading the same game I am, I can't see how you can see both copper and BBT as town and me as scum, but I just wanted to point out that even if that is the case, we haven't lost, but it will definately put u

The other option is if the SK/VIG shoot and hits scum, (50% chance either night) It would help the town, or ensure a scum victory if wrong. Not sure if Titus wants to take that on.

[vettrock]

Catching up...

(8) Copper is faking as town and he's a Vigilante. I'd hate this. Personally, I don't think it would have been a good idea from Copper but it's possible that he wanted to help the town and it went very wrong. In this case, there's no SK and Tean must claim a PR.

Overall possibility: ???

– Copper, this is your last chance to admit this!

If you do so, I'll unvote you.

That's all he'd have to do? Copper could just lie and survive another day. This does not seem like a town mindset, especially considering, IIRC, you had a decently strong scum read on copper...

This looks kill Aneninen is trying to save his scum buddy copper to me. If copper is actually a vigilante, Titus would have to be lying about his role, because two K's is one of each.

[vettrock]

Vettrock, your 1672 makes sense. I also pointed out some of those things before. (Eg. in 1606).
Some remarks.
(1) (*) In theory, a TTTT Setup is possible if each of Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying.
(2) If it's TT, Titus is a Vigilante and there's no SK. One of Copper, BBT and Vettrock is lying. According to Ockham's Razor, this is the most probable version (we need to make the least assumptions for this)
(3) It's not impossible that two of these players: Copper, BBT and Vettrock are lying. So, even if Copper is scum it's not confirmed that BBT and Vettrock are town. (The Copper–BBT scumpair is not too likely, see below.)
(4) (*) If it's T, all of the scums must be amongst the VT-claims: Heartless, Mastin, Wicked, Beast, Aneninen. (In this case, Penguin is town because of BBT's hiding. I know that I'm not scum. In this scenario there's an SK too, so all the other names are scums.)
(5) (*) The Bus-Driver can mix up the Nightkills.
(6) (*) If Titus is SK, it's absolutely not sure that he may shoot you.

The points marked with (*) should be ignored, I think.
(1) is very unlikely and if it's true, the game is most probably lost. But, testing it later (after one or two of those names flipping scum) would be a bad gameplay. Titus's Vig kills in that case could help a lot, though. (4) is unlikely too, but if Copper, BBT and Vettrock are all out (and they all flip town), we still have a chance to win if there are missing kills or crosskils (the SK shoots Mafia and/or Vice versa). (5) can hurt us a lot, but with multiple kills (especially if there's an SK) a Bus-Driving can go wrong for the scums too. And yes, it's possible that the Bus-Driver used his PR at Night1. (6) is also possible, but even if Copper and/or BBT flips town and the SK shoots someone else (hoping that you'll lynched Tomorrow), he/she can still shoot a scum (or another scum).

TL;DR: In general, your thoughts are correct if we include (2) and (3).

________

Wicked, your 1679 was very dumb. First of all, you just picked a small part out of a long post where I tried to summarize ALL of the possibilities. I simply included that point amongst others. Also, even I admitted later that my ideas there had been wrong. Plus, I mentioned "unvote", not "townreading him". I don't think if he had changed his fake-claim to another fake-claim, that would have saved him later. And finally, he refused even my assumption that he'd ever fake-claim as a townie.

Wicked, 1682 –

"If he was scum feigning frustration with BBT, why would he violate the 'no public hatred' rule thus risking (and eventually leading to) his ejection?"

– I know it's a bit like "outguessing the mod" but I think that Copper/BBT fight was a scum-vs-town fight because Copper got force-replaced and BBT got warned. If both of them were scum or town, I don't think they would have gotten a different treatment. (Or it's also possible that Copper was much ruder? I'm a bit insensitive to flame-wars, I've seen much worse things before, ending up with violating ...much serious things.)
As for your Beast-reads, I'll re-examine him later. But it's obvious that I'll post about BBT and Vettrock next.

Looking at it again, I agree that it is possible for two of copper, BBT and me to be scum. For that to happen, Titus would have to be telling the truth, and the there would be a serial killer who did not shoot, or doubled up on a kill. Not impossible, but not likely. From my perspective, that would be copper and BBT are both scum, which I would consider unlikely. In that case, one (or more) of copper/BBT is scum) and we still get a scum dead by lynching copper assuming that if he is town he shoots BBT.

I guess it is possible we all flip town if the setup is:
IIPKKHT. This assume that the serial killer either did not shoot, or the kill was doubled up. Keep in mind that there is 1 T in only 5% of the setups. So %5 of the setups, and the vig and serial killer did not shoot. Doesn't seem very likely.

[vettrock]

So much theory spec...

Bold please

Lynch Cooper, yes or no.
who should cooper take if vengeful?

Yes lynch copper.
If vengeful, shoot BBT

[vettrock]

Why does it matter if the Cooper slot is empty?

Because if town it has to shoot someone. Can't shoot someone without someone to submit the action.

@Mod. If we lynch copper, do we wait for the replacement to come in and select who to shoot if he is vengeful?

[vettrock]

VOTE: BBT

See my eariler analysis one of BBT and copper was lying. Its BBT.

[vettrock]

The only case where BBT is not scum is if we have a serial killer that was blocked or did double killed round one, and Titus is telling the truth about being a vigilante.

With my claim, we have if Titus is town:
IIPKKTT, and there is now serial killer, BBT claim would be false.

We should lynch BBT

With my claim and Titus is the serial killer pretending to be a vigilante, we have:
IIPKTTT, and BBT's claim would be false.

We should lynch BBT

If BBT's claim is true, and Titus's claim is true we have:
IIPKKHT. This means that there is a serial killer who did not kill (or double-killed). This also means we are in the 5% of setups that have only one T. I think the chances of both of these being true as being pretty small. For both of these to be true, the probability would be 5% time the probably that the serial killer double killed or was jailkept.

Possible, but small chance. Significantly less that 5%. Lynching BBT is our best option.

If BBT's claim is true and Titus is the serial killer pretending to be a vigilante, we have:
IIPKHTX. There is no possible value for X as a serial killer requires an odd number of T's. and there would have to be another claim that someone who claimed VT was actually a PR. I see this a pretty unlikely.

If all town is telling the truth, zero chance

If Titus is scum, and BBT's claim is true we have:

IIPKHTT. This is not possible since there was two kills N1. There is no one to perform the second kill.

If Titus is scum and BBT's claim is false we have:
IIPKTTT. This is possible as we have as serial killer, for the second kill.

BBT is scum and we should lynch him

[vettrock]

Vettrock, I'm sorry, but I don't see why you are making any of those assumptions. I think the setup is IIPHKKT OR IIPHKTT with Titus lying.

IIPHKKT is possible if the serial killer did not kill, was jailkept by dodgy, or killed the same person as Titus or the same person that scum killed. I will also add the possibility one of the targets of the kill was jailkept, and that protected them. that I see the updated percentages, and you are correct, since we know some of the setup already, the probability changes. So the changes of this setup are (assuming you did the math correct) 11% instead of 5%. The reason you have to make the assumption about the kill, is otherwise there would have been three kills. I think the chances of this a greater than I initially believed, but still not all that likely.

IIPHKTT is not possible. If Titus is lying, where did the second kill come from? TT has no serial killer.

[vettrock]

Doesn't 1549 explain why there were 2 Night kills?

Bit of a newb question but if there is a mafia JOAT can they use 1 NK alongside another mafia member?

The mafia get one NK, the other NK is either the Town Vigilante (Assuming Titus is telling the truth), or a serial killer. The JOAT does not allow any additional kill.

After thinking about this a little, I see Titus as either town, or the serial killer. I don't see any situation where she could be scum. If scum, and claiming he scum kill, (or the serial killer's kill) She would have outted herself as scum to the serial killer. The serial killer would know the kill they made, and the by POE, the kill the scum made. The SK, I think would then target her the next night, meaning certain death. I can see no gain from scum with this situation. She is either the serial killer, or a town vigilante.

With BBT scum we have:
IIPKKTT, which has no serial killer, and Titus telling the truth
or
IIPKTTT, which has a serial killer, and Titus is the serial killer.


If BBT is telling the truth we have:
IIPKKHT. This has both a serial killer, and Titus as the town vigilante, and need some explanation for why there was only 2 kills N1 instead of 3.

We cannot have:
IIPKHTT since there is no way for a second kill on N1. If BBT is telling the truth, Titus must be telling the truth as well and is not the serial killer.


There are three possible setups from my POV:
IIPKTTT, IIPKKTT, or IIPKKHT. I think the more T's, the more probable. Also the problem with the 1 T setup, in addition to it being the least common, it also requires an explaination for why there was only 2 NKs on N1. While there are explanations for why that occurred, you are stacking these explanations on top of the least likely of the setups.

This is why I think BBT is scum.

As for Aneminen comment about ignoreing the other scum, I think it is critical that we lynch one scum today. I see BBT as the best candidate for that.

I will say that I don't like Beast's posts:

UNVOTE:

Fine, let me get to this later then.

Still probably going to vote BBT but let me at least have time to make up a reason instead of stating the actual one.

I am not voting based of any reads. I am voting based on what would have been the vengeful kill since we were so obviously going to be voting copper yesterday. This is the only fair way in my mind to get the game back on track and for it to not leave a weird taste in my mouth.

So this is a principle vote.

My reads have all been spelled out earlier though and BBT was part of the scum list with copper.

Also, I have a surefire LYLO strategy so town will win if I am alive at LYLO.

Wanting to "honor" copper's wishes as a reason to lynch is pretty scummy to me. You should be playing to your win condition, not to some sense of trying to balance out a mistake from the mod. The mod has determined that removing the slot for the game was the most fair to all sides. That was the decision, now continue playing the game.

The problem I have with this is if BBT and Beast are both scum, if he is bussing, he is not doing so in a way that would give him towncred, which seems a fairly strange way to do it.

[vettrock]

Can people stop voting me based on set-up spec and start voting people for, you know, being scum?

You're all gonna look so fucking dumb if it turns out to be the 5% set-up or whatever it was. Well, town will look dumb, scum will be laughing their asses off.

Setup spec frames the probabilities, and what is impossible. We need to eliminate all of the cases where it is impossible. We can look at improbable cases with a eye for who we think is scummy. I think a probable case with a scum read should be look at above a improbable case with a scum read. If it was an improbable case with a townread vs. a probable case with a scum read, we have to evaluate.

I think we have a fair amount of people that have a scum read on you and the setup spec just confirms it.

[vettrock]

I'm modifying my previous post (1606) about the setup.


The known flips are:

I, P (and a T)

I, P, K (and a T)
The known claims are: T, H, K,

K

There were two Nightkills.

Possibilities

(1) TTTTTTT, TTTTTT and TTTTT are

impossible

.

(3) TTTT

is

possible

but

only if

three claims are fake.

Not possible anymore.

(4) TTT (the probability of this Setup is also 27.3%) is

possible if

– (4.1) Titus is faking and he's SK

and

one of the other claims is fake too (either BBT or Vettrock is scum, but not both)
– (4.2) Titus is telling the truth

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled, both BBT and Vettrock are scum – so, we still can't rule out this!
– (4.3) Titus is faking and he's Mafia

and

one of the Nightkills failed/doubled

and

either BBT or Vettrock is scum but not both

(5) TT (the probability of this Setup is 16.4%) is

possible if

Titus's claim is real

and

one of the other claims is fake, so either BBT or Vettrock is scum. There's no SK in this Setup. BBT's claim is real, Penguin is town, so all of these players are scum: Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked.

In case of (4), there are two scums between BBT, Vettrock and Titus. Two scums between Beast, Heartless, Mastin, Wicked (plus, in theory, Penguin and Aneninen) If we lynch Vettrock or BBT, it's 66.67% that we lynch scum. If we lynch someone else, it's 40%. (By calculating these numbers I'm ignoring the possibility of a scum-Penguin, because he can be scum only together with BBT and I'm too lazy to calculate the probability of that. However, only for the correct mathematic, I'm not ignoring myself. I'm town but if we consider

only

the mathematical chances, the probability of a scum-Aneninen is the same as the probability of a scum-Beast/Heartless/Mastin/Wicked.)

In case of (5), either BBT or Vettrock is scum (but not both). Lynching one of them is an 50% possibility for lynching a scum. There are two scums between the other players. Lynching any of those gives an 40% chance for lynching a scum.

In case of (6), lynching BBT or Vettrock gives 0% for a scumlynch. Lynching anyone else gives 80%!!!

These are the

only

possibilities. In this case, the percentages of the setups are to be summarized and considered 100%. Namely, 27.3 + 16.4 + 5.5 = 49.2 = 100%
The chance of (4) is 55.5%
The chance of (5) is 33.3%
The chance of (6) is 11.2%.

Let's multiply these chances with the scumlynch possibilities.
Vettrock or BBT: 0.6667×0.55 = 0.3667 ; 0.5×0.333 = 0.165 ; 0.0×0.112 = 0.

Sum:

: 0.3667+0.165+0=0.5317 =

53.17%

Someone else (excluding Titus and Penguin): 0.4×0.555 = 0.222 ; 0.4×0.333 = 0.1332 ; 0.8×0.112 = 0.09

Sum:

0.222+0.1332+0.09=0.4452 =

44.52%

So, in theory, it's more likely by 8.65% that we lynch scum if we choose between Vettrock or BBT.
In practice, that difference is not significant enough to rule out every possible lynch Today, apart from that two players.

________

Post-edit. I know that some of you were doing the same Setup speculation, eg. Titus in the post above (yes, I've just got Ninja-ed.) But, as far as I know, noone has calculated the exact numbers before.
So, point it out if I've made a mistake about my calculations.

One additional factor, is that in order for BBT and I to both be town, you have to account for the lack of three kills on N1.(4.2) I don't know what the probability would be, but I think the probability for that to have happened, is on the smaller side, although still very possible.
I don't see (4.3) as very likely either as I explained before, if he is scum, it was not a smart move to claim vig in a game with a serial killer, as the serial killer will know it is false. I think we can consider Titus SK or Town, but not scum.

In case 5 you assume Killa is town because BBT claim is real. The same is not true, if my claim is real.

[vettrock]

I tracked BBT to Aneninen last night. Since BBT is dead, I'm pretty sure that means Aneninen is scum.
VOTE: Aneninen

Killa is confirmed town, everyone else is serial killer or scum.

The setup must be:
IIPKKHT

This tells me We have serial killer and 3 scum left. If I was lying the setup would be:

IPKKHTT, which would mean there is three town and three scum, and the game would be over.

I don't see how town can win as we cannot get 4 votes.

[vettrock]

So Heartless and Anen are scum. I'm guessing wicked for the serial killer.

[vettrock]

So Heartless and Anen are scum. I'm guessing wicked for the serial killer.

maybe. maybe not.

who knows?

Everyone except Killa and me knows....

[vettrock]

Actually, at that point it would have been better off for one of you to shoot as your chances of hitting scum was pretty good at that point. but the hindsight is a lot easier to see. I need to rember to be suspecious of those town reading me like Heartless was. BBT was right we played the odds too much, and the scum since they knew the setup were just adding fuel to it.

[vettrock]

If BBT would have hidden behind me, we would have had three conftown, and Anen as confirmed scum.