STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[mastin2]

Lycan has had a habit of lurking as scum too. So that is also out there. And I know he hasn't been posting since like day 1.

Was gonna keep this a secret, but my townread on that slot is in fact far past the point of being stale. It's utterly dead.

But I'd prefer not to focus on them at this time. I was actually gonna save pressuring them for tomorrow.

[mastin2]

I also think mastin is making up shit as she goes.

Then you don't know how I play.
I am not lying.
Everything I've said has been 100% true. Short of misunderstandings, which were just that: unintentional.
Not once have I deliberately so much as mislead a player! All the knowledge I have access to I know to be true.

Call it compensation if you will. Powerful role for some powerful drawbacks.

The action was town.
You had more than one person aware of your posting in your bubble.
I'm not sharing more than that.

[mastin2]

She knows nothing.

Wrong again.

I want to quote something that would give you proof that I know what I'm talking about, but it'd be a bad idea.

[mastin2]

What if the Crystal Gems are 3p?

Said it before, will say it again in big bold font:

No.

For any "third parties" in the game, they'd be controlled by a town player or a scum player.
That's the extent of third parties this game.

I guarantee you.

We won't have any third parties that are players.
This is half-role, half-knowing Varsoon.

If you encounter a third party claim (other than controlling one),

lynch it on sight

.

[mastin2]

mastin: doubtcasting means 'casting doubt on'.

My point exactly.
And you pair that word with 'townie'.

[mastin2]

The "you don't know how I play" shtick. I heard this earlier from someone else, namely RR.

The difference is, you're townreading me.

I have not lied yet. Not once. Misunderstandings were misunderstandings, not backtracking. Knowledge given has been, and continues to be, 100% true.

[mastin2]

Right now, btw:
Shiro and Xkfyu are on my list of "don't lynch right now".

SnarkySnowman, Kraskaesque, Shadow_Step, randomidget, and DrippingGoofball are my list of "beyond Mathblade, focus players".

Everyone else has some form of immunity.
Of the above, DGB is nearly-immune, but not quite.

If you want to know the details on any of the above, or any

not

on the above, feel free to ask, though I may not answer for all of them.

Though, quite a number are thanks to diplomatic immunity.

[mastin2]

Diplomatic immunity?

The connotations there should be obvious enough: players who have no right to be immune from scrutiny, but for whatever reason (usually role, sometimes other-player-based), are still immune.

A bit tongue-in-cheek terminology, but an apt description for, saaaaaaaaaay, RR, Klingoncelt, and similar.

[mastin2]

Do you think they are employing emotional manipulation?

If I wasn't feeling lazy right now, I'd make a witty/sarcastic comment interlaced with quotes from Mathblade's iso along the lines of, "Oh, you know, I'd say it's distinctly possible".

But since I am feeling incredibly lazy right now, I'll just settle for being blunt instead:

Yes.

[mastin2]

My read on mastin goes down a mile. I definitely expect better from you.

Pot, kettle, black.

[mastin2]

In your own words, using links or quotes, why is math scum.

One, Cooldog's profile. I initially thought Cooldog's play here was a match for the first Steven Universe game, where he was town, which is why Cooldog started as various degrees of being a townread. But then, I actually went back to check. You can VERY EASILY compare his isos between the two games because of them being comparable circumstances: in both games, he had about the same number of posts, before quitting the game at the same time.

And yet, this was his iso that game, whereas this is his iso this game.

The two are miles apart. They start similarly enough, though the Cooldog of this game was not as organic as the Cooldog of that game. But the moment he gives content, the difference emerges. In that game, his posting was filled with some light banter that held some actual analysis. In this game, he did analysis, but without the banter. In that game, his analysis was thorough and meaningful. In this game, his analysis was shallow and surface-level. I'm looking at 351, 464, and 798 for just a start. Many more exist.

The Cooldog of that game was abrasive. Cooldog this game was passive, even accepting. The Cooldog of that game gave many, many reads. The Cooldog of this game skirted by on one or two. You can see it in their first posts of both games: that game's 322 had four reads that had solid reasoning behind them. This game's 351 has, if you're

extra-generous

, two...that give no in-depth explanation at all. The Cooldog of that game was unafraid to just be himself. The Cooldog of this game made plenty of appeasement posts: 352, 464, 543, and 798 all come to mind for that.

Cooldog this game did literally nothing, except voting McMenno. There was also lurker defense as well. Now compare that to what Cooldog did that game. He gave in-depth reasons on multiple players. He voted Sonic X, his second vote in the game. He went back, but each time, he was explaining why he was doing what he was doing. His posts were reasonable and you could see where he was coming from because he was actually explaining things.
A trait utterly absent from this game.
In that game, when he said stuff about players, he wouldn't just leave it there. He would explain it, if not at the time, then at a later date when asked about it.

In this game, he's said stuff about players...but never bothered to do anything with it. All his comments are detached from each other. All of his posts are unconnected. There's no flow, there's no trajectory between them. He has no consistent mindset, and was just posting for the sake of posting stuff.

That's just for Cooldog!
Then you get into Loopdan...who did nothing in the six posts he was here. 4272 is textbook scumposting. 4315 was not only redundant, given his intro, it was also stalling: he should have already been reading to find things himself, yet he did nothing. In 4318, he claims to have read everything posted since his sub in...but he comments on NONE of it. He calls it all "gibberish", but he doesn't form a single thought on it at all? None? He doesn't ask questions about specific posts? He doesn't ask about topics? He just writes it all off and doesn't even try? No mechanical work, and no work on comments that were scumhunting without mechanics? Surely, there was something in that time worth commenting on...but he deliberately writes it all off saying "there is nothing in here I can understand" and does nothing to correct that problem.

It also writes the first ten pages off...when there was content in there. Why doesn't he give commentary on the earlier material? Why doesn't he give thoughts, even ones he knows might be obsolete,

especially

when given the chance that they might

not

be obsolete? (One of the reasons replacements are so deadly is that they pick up on things others have missed!)

Loopdan, as a newbie coming into an overwhelming game, might have been over his head...but he wasn't acting like a newbtown coming in over his head. Newbtown display some of the above traits. They have curiosity. They have frustration. They have confusion, but they display this confusion with series of posting.

Loopdan displayed it with minimalistic posting that accomplished nothing. Literally nothing. His posting was engineered as to deliberately achieve nothing at all.

And that's not even beginning to go into Mathblade's posting, absolutely none of which has changed the slot's overall lack of contribution to the game. Mathblade's posting only made things worse, but to that, I'll ask you to dual-iso grapes and me, and control-F search for 'Mathblade'. It's simpler than explaining it all again.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Kraskaesque

Understandable, but I'd prefer you not do this.
I tend to reserve the term 'shiny' for players who are town that're distractions, and kraskaesque is increasingly failing the town half of that. (I really empathize with why you voted after 5477. I get it. I really, really do! It's just not what you're needed for right now.)
But, I can say that

regardless

of their alignment, they are nonetheless a distraction from Mathblade.

I need your help pushing that through, especially if you don't want some shitty lynch you don't support to go through in its stead.

[mastin2]

On page 42 currently. I'm onto some things but don't expect anything spectacular till tomorrow evening at least. My main focus currently is the development of the SC wagon. In Varsoon's last game we lynched scum day 1 too. But that didn't end up well. IIRC more than half the scum team was on that wagon.

(Speaking of Loopdan-like players......*)

(*I mean, he's less likely to be scum since his slot doesn't

quite

fit the pattern as well,

butstill

......**)

(**Also this would be a scumteam that would be comprised almost entirely of lurkers or former-lurkers when factoring in Mathblade's slot, so......)

[mastin2]

Rescinding what I just said about Shadow_step now, obviously, with 5508 onward.
My comment there was that Shadow_step had gotten that far into the game without either asking questions or doing analysis, which I found a bit sketchy, but without prompting, he does so at that point. It's a bit odd timing-wise, so there's less towncred to be had than I'd prefer, but all the same, at that point, Shadow_step is bringing some fair points, quotes, and analysis forward, which I feel make him incredibly more likely to be town.

[mastin2]

should i have said their 'paranoia surrounding you' was townie? casting doubt on conftown is the same as being suspicious of conftown.

No, it's not. The terms aren't synonyms. They have alignment connotations to them for good reason. I agree with you that Mathblade was doubtcasting: doubtcasting being the act of throwing shade onto a town player to try and make players doubt them. This is not an effort to scumhunt. It is an attempt to slander a player, essentially, and try to subtly widen the gap between the town, attempt to break apart a strong townbloc, and sew seeds of discord.

This is distinctly different from having suspicion of a player. A player having suspicion of another player isn't trying to make the other player look more suspicious. A player having suspicion of another player is trying to

lynch

or at least

strongly convince

other players that they are right.

You can see this sort of thing in, say, Firebringer. He is bluntly, directly, saying, "I call bullshit" in regards to my knowledge. He is wrong, but he is doing it all the same. Seeing this in Klingoncelt is one reason she's off the table. Her response was similarly, "I call bullshit" in regards to me. And, of course, my response to others at times has been exactly that: calling bullshit, explaining why, and trying to convince others I am right.

This is inherently different from what Mathblade did. Remember when grapes said that thing about Mathblade looking for reasons to justify reads? (I forget grapes's exact wording, but the point's been brought up at least three or four times between both grapes and I, and you were involved, so you know which point I refer to.) Yeah, well, this is basically an extension of the same concept: rather than believing what she is saying and trying to convince others (as with above examples among others), she is trying to be indirect, to weaken the stance of players without accepting accountability and responsibility for doing so.

In short? A lack of commitment. A lack of shown belief. A lack of reasoning, of explanation, a total lack of drive behind her reaches. That's what doubtcasting is, compared to having doubts and expressing them.

[mastin2]

(Apologies in advance Mathblade if a wrong pronoun slipped through. This is a fairly long post, and the longer the post, the more likely I am to accidentally drop the wrong one on someone.)

do you think desperate scum Mathblade would still attempt to play the long game by going after conftown/obvtown? when they're about to be lynched?

That's the smart play, yes. I'd do it. And I know Mathblade would too. I have a fairly decent psychological profile on them. Notably, so too does Titus, given, you know.

Titus is Mathblade's sister

. You have the two players who best know Mathblade in the game, both saying basically the same thing about them, that their actions fit with a scum profile of them and that they are

not

being even remotely pro-town at all.

Mathblade is playing as scum. Every move Mathblade has been making has been strategic, start to finish. The entry, where Mathblade avoided giving too much info when they were near lynch. Their push back, when it looked like they could maybe survive. Their casting doubt on the confirmed town, something vital to do for scum in the long-term. (What's the worst that happens if Mathblade's lynched? The conftown were already conftown, so it's not like they can become MORE conftown. What's the best that happens if Mathblade isn't lynched? People buy what they sold. So, it's a NO-risk, HIGH-reward move.) Not to mention, doubling as a way to fake being "insane town", when Mathblade is anything but insane. Their mostly-omgus pushes have been moves that wouldn't give the town information we didn't already have. Every step along the way, Mathblade is carefully progressing to manipulate the chess board, and Mathblade as scum does exactly that: strategic thinking ahead.

Take a look at Gistou if you don't believe me. The only reason players of that game caught them was because they were strongman-nightkilled. Otherwise, they had virtually everyone absolutely fooled, and their scumteam's plan was to set them up as the long-term survivor specifically because Mathblade is skilled at running the long game, creating procedures, and following them through step by step.

And while Mathblade replaced into a disadvantageous starting position, as if missing half of their chess pieces, they have already assessed the situation and begun making moves to lay long-term traps and plans. This is not what Mathblade does as town. Mathblade replacing into this game as town has one focus, and one focus ONLY: scumhunting. Getting all information out, as fast as possible,

especially

with the threat of a lynch looming over them.

All this said

,

i think you should drop the point about their role.

I do agree with you here.
Titus is wrong about the role point.

Most of Titus's other grievances, however, remain valid.

[mastin2]

I think the reason was FB was going to give a vig shot to someone they scum read and/or the target of the gift openly announced their target whom the "bubbler" was town reading. (Ex: Shiro said they'd shoot me, farside would vig Titus I think.. etc). The Gem also either wasn't too sure of FB's alignment or wasn't town read by him (thus could not actually "dictate" his action to him).

So, what was the best course of action? Isolate him. Prevent him from gifting out something potentially harmful to town, even if it was at the cost of either killing or vanilaizing him. Something lead them to believe he was town (could be a reread or a night action) so they opted not to kill him.

Pretty much, yeah. For obvious reasons, no details, but I can more or less confirm that this is along the lines of accurate.

MathBlade, I don't know why, but I get a feeling Loopdan replaced out because he got scum (as his town self is usually more active).

Admittedly I also have that feeling, but nonetheless it's not an accusation we should make even if it turned out to be true, because it's pretty shitty to accuse the player of using a real-life reason as justification for replacing out. (In short, even if it turns out that Loopdan used a real-life reason to justify replacing out as scum...not an accusation we want to make.)

[mastin2]

Right now, I hear excuse after excuse about how you'll come after town at every opportunity.

And, need I remind you: this is an excuse that has lasted across

all three occupants of the slot

. Cooldog gave it. Loopdan gave it. And Mathblade has, continuously, time and time again, given it.

[mastin2]

You could flip town and I would suspect no one that has voted you at this point, your play is that bad.

My stance exactly.

(Hey scum, that's your cue to join or rejoin the wagon! Because I'm pretty sure there aren't many already on, if any.)

[mastin2]

are you claiming you are informed town?

And here is where the temptation to exaggerate into a borderline-lie comes in play. I could just say yes and leave it at that (the exaggeration), but...more accurately, it'd best be said that I have more information than standard town, QUITE a bit more than standard town. I'm not omniscient, so there

is

some knowledge that I don't have absolute mod confirmation of...but when I overlay what I know based off of my information, AND what I know based off of my experience with Varsoon as a moderator, this game would not have third parties. Seriously, check his modding history. He has used, over the course of his moderating career, a grand total of TWO third parties, EVER: a modified survivor, and SaGa frontier, with The Mask of the Joker (a serial killer) plus the disastrous Fascinaturu (effectively a serial killer on drugs thanks to its effect endgaming town when the town still holds the majority while possessing an effective strongman-kill-function).

All other third parties he's used have been controlled by either town or scum.
And he's NOT going to make anything resembling those roles above again. (I made them in most-likely to least-likely.)

Ergo. This game is not going to have third party players. I would lynch any claimed third party player on sight, even if I were townreading them previously.

[mastin2]

Really, so you think math is scum desperate and making crazy theories as scum.

Explicitly so, yes. This is old news, but glad my point finally got across!

[mastin2]

1) can you confirm that Yuma is town via the PT. I think Yuma implied it did but I want to double check

Yes. Yume is confirmed town to me.

2) Can you explain how you know about what happened to FB without revealing your role and Flavor.

I

can

, but it would still be anti-town to reveal any of the details there beyond what I've disclosed already.

3) have you heard anything back from Vasoon on your question

Initial response indicates that if Firebringer were the nightkill, we'd have no way of knowing (so, scum kill is indeed unaccounted for; it could be literally any player who had protection, including Firebringer), but I'm waiting on a second response to make absolutely sure.

[mastin2]

Your name though should chance to Clear Logic That is what I will say.

By the way, in case you were wondering, this is scum buddying town.
Just sayin'.

[mastin2]

And again you do not address Titus conftowning me. Address it Mastina.

I address anything that's actually worth addressing.
Your point is an utter stretch at absolute best. It's absolute bullshit, to the point where I didn't even bother pointing it out because it's self-evident that your point is full of crap.

There. I've addressed it.

[mastin2]

You are scared of what I did in Gistou.

It's cute that you think I as the game moderator hold fear of a player in my games.
I hold no fear of any player. LEAST of all, those who are outside my inner circle of friends. (I hold a lot more caution--not fear--for someone like, say, Nacho or zMuffinman. You're no Nacho, and you're no zMuffinman.)
Past games do not make me paranoid about plays that I would otherwise write off.
Past games teach me important characteristics about a player.

It's simple psychological profiling, off of what I have seen from you before.
I have seen you as town and seen you as scum, and this is your scumgame.

Furthermore, I also find it admirable that you're trying to push the angle that this is a policy lynch.
But it's not. It's lynching scum.
If I happened to be wrong, it's true...nothing in my reads whatsoever would even remotely change. Because my scumread on you is independent from my reads on any other players.
But I'm not lynching you because of what I'm afraid of you doing.

I'm lynching you because of what I've seen you do, compared to what I know you're capable of doing, and crossreferencing that with what alignment you're most likely to be. It's a lynch off of scumhunting, pure and simple. Cooldog was scum. Loopdan was scum. And you've done nothing but solidify that read with your play.

I wouldn't shed a single tear if I was wrong about you.
But I'm not wrong.

[mastin2]

So town vanilized me because they thought I was scum giving a gun to other scum? Like what? How the fuck does that make sense.

You were targeted by someone who thought you were town. I will say no more about other aspects.

[mastin2]

How is Math being helpful right now?

This, absolutely this.

Pot this is kettle.

Do tell. Because I cannot find any way to read Titus's statement as pot/kettle to any other player.

[mastin2]

However no one is going to lynched claimed Mason's today so this is pointless. Let's talk DGB and Shiro for the health of the game.

Or you could actually scumhunt? No. Ok. Eat rope.

Also this!

[mastin2]

2- You're not convincing anyone. 3- You're doing much harm to town.
3 is OK if you're scum yourself. In fact, I'd be thanking you for making it abundantly clear you are. However, if you're town, you're playing against your win con, which -unfortunately- would coincide with mine in this case. I'm not amused.

Be amused! Mathblade's scum, making it abundantly clear they are.

[mastin2]

The difference is I'm making a case.

Uh-huh.
And who, might I ask, actually is agreeing with your case, hmm?

Hint: it's a very, very small subsection of players.

Who, might I ask, is very vocally, repeatedly, disagreeing with your case, hmm?

Now, furthering that!
What, exactly, have the people that agree with you been doing when agreeing?
Hint: It's a synonym to "not much".

What, exactly, have the people disagreeing with your case been doing?
Hint: it involves a thing town players do, usually with a fair amount of casing involved, that they've done plenty of already on all fronts.


The saddest thing about this whole thing is that I really really want you to be scum because you're just being so consistently...

bad

. But I know you're not. Mathblade wouldn't be treating you this way if you were scum with them, and you wouldn't be treating Mathblade this way if you were scum with them.

[mastin2]

I am Math's sister. She will absolutely never be protown. I am not trusting your word over my thirty years of experience with them. If you want to talk, great. But right now, please trust me. I was right on Cakez. I am almost certainly right here. Mastina supports this. Yume supports this. Every single obvtown supports this wagon.
Farside and math are just trying to paint me as a villian, like Cakey did. So please trust me.

SO much, this.

[mastin2]

The endless loop is me trying to have a dialogue with you that is constructive because all my townreads townread you, but you refuse to actually engage and read you disagree on and paint everyone else as a bitch/tyrant.

Then it's I missed a question I answered, while you dodge mine. Like I am still waiting for a justification of your Math read. You haven't even engaged Mastina on her Math case. You systemically ignore things that do not fit your worldview. Then, after people tell you that you're being unreasonable on me or on Shiro, your response is to call me a tyrant or whine about spam, repeating the whole damn cycle.

I have tried complimenting your reads you got right, narrowing the focus of the conversation, asking you to express your concerns. All I get is you're spamming, I am building a case, prove your worth. I have to most everyone here. You get told that. You persist.

Farside, you are not listening.

You blew up the alliance because it was in theory good for you. You have acted in your own interests first rather than the group. If you're town, Ffs take a chill pill realize Shiro is not getting lynched, I am confirmed town, and let's work together. Do whatever you have to. Make a damn voodoo doll if necessary. Just get whatever shit you have in there out. Ty.

I back literally every single word in here. It reflects my views perfectly.

That's not to say Titus is without her faults! She has some, yes, undeniably she has some flawed perspective in her views.

But bluntly.
I am sick of the shit farside is pulling.

Time and time again, I'll be there in the middle. I'll point out Titus's flaws and her strengths. And I'll continue to encourage the aspects of farside that I'm willing to support. But the aspects of farside I'm willing to support are, continuously, shrinking, more and more, because her stances have continued to get

worse and worse

. And, continuously, I've been supporting aspects of Titus, and those aspects I'm supporting have grown larger and larger because Titus is becoming more and more reasonable, as illustrated with a perfect post like this. She still has her flaws. But this cuts to the heart of the issue and is a perfect summation of my feelings as well.

[mastin2]

Wtf? You "empathize" with why he voted after 5477? You "get it"? You "really do"?

Yes.
I understand

exactly

why he voted you. I understand why he saw it as scummy. I understand why he thinks you're scum. I understand that, and I can't say I really disagree. The best I can give you is that I might not agree. Because you've lost your towncred. You had it early-on. And then you coasted.
A lot.

A lot, a lot.

So you're sitting on the south side of null.

Want towncred back?

Then do something town.
This aint it.

But the main point I was making there is...I don't support lynching you today.
If you don't town it up, I will support lynching you tomorrow.
Yet today, I am commanding a Mathblade lynch take place.

[mastin2]

Right?

Off-topic a bit, but you of all people know that I don't actually have an ego.
Like, at all.
Not even a bit of one.
There's a reason (a damn good reason at that!) that I appear to have more of an ego this game than compared to a normal mastina game. (That being, essentially, I'm not quite playing like the normal mastina. My style feels "better" than normal mastina right now. That's a MASSIVE oversimplification, but adequate enough an explanation for now.) But not only is that something which is not permanent, it's also still (even now) not a true ego. I'd call it more, "strategic confidence". This delves into MD theory, but generally across all games, I am not of the mindset that showing my actual confidence level is the tactically-correct move in getting people to follow me in games. ESPECIALLY not when I have a permanent private topic where I can share my actual thoughts as needed.

[mastin2]

If math is scum, why am I not voted by more people (namely scum buddies) in order to save her.

Easy enough.
There's an attempt at a Shiro wagon.
There's an attempt at a DGB wagon.
Support for one draws from support from the other, NOT from Mathblade.

In short: dueling town counterwagons to the wagon on scum. The scum can't get enough votes on only ONE of the wagons.

[mastin2]

DrippingGoofball (4): Klingoncelt, Not Chara, Firebringer, SnarkySnowman

The only person in here that I see as potentially scum is Klingoncelt.

Odd, the only person I see in there above suspicion is Firebringer.

[mastin2]

Guys math isn't scum
Their posts don't look like self preservation, if that's what they were trying to do they wouldn't have made the pushes they made

Mathblade's been alternating votes, continuously, between Shiro and DGB, the two largest counterwagons to them.

That isn't an effort at self-preservation...

...

How

?

[mastin2]

I can be a super artist in a way, but it may fail. Do you want me to take the chance or hold? We should not both be drawing as it is superfluous. I will respect what choice you make.

I'd say both hold to be honest.

[mastin2]

There is almost certainly a separate Crystal Gems faction and they are almost certainly third party.

Yeah, I don't buy this.

The second is only necessary if there is either some way that we could remove all scum and also somehow all be dead.

There is. Bubbling counts as being removed from the game, remember? (V declared this publicly a while back.)
I repeat: that is a town-controlled power. If the last town member used it on scum while scum killed them, then the result would be nobody being technically "alive", and therefore, we'd have failed to achieve our wincon.

I know more about the bubbling power than most players in the game could ever know about it.

Second, there's Klingoncelt.

I'm a miller because I'm a corrupted gem, not because I'm a crystal gem.
Klingoncelt is indeed a crystal gem. I even know which one, which is either her real role or her flavor-given fakeclaim.

Last I checked, Yume didn't share with me your other private reasons. So if you want me to have so much as a chance of buying this: that needs to be done.
If I'm wrong and Yume did, then what was posted must have been so underwhelming that I didn't even think it was a point. Suffice to say:

Yeah, not buying it.

[mastin2]

What makes the most sense is that Klingoncelt is just scum, claiming miller.

If Klingoncelt is scum, she has miller as either a built-in ability of her actual role, or a built-in piece of her fakeclaim. Speaking as a miller myself, I can tell you that much. She knows details about the miller role that I doubt V would hand out to scum willy-nilly requesting a miller fakeclaim that he didn't give. (That being said, her miller flavor doesn't make nearly as much sense as mine does, but I digress.)

Is it possible she's scum, yes, most certainly it is.
But I'm not going to pressure her right now. She has a free pass for the time being.

[mastin2]

Narrative Evidence for Mathblade slot as scum
1) The only vote Cooldog places is for McMenno, as a counterwagon to RR and NC. He never gives an opinion on RR or NC.
2) CoolDog says NC will be clear after Mastina flips, but has zero issue with Mastina voting NC.
3) Discredits my Cakey read but doesn't call me scummy or elaborate.
4) He calls Not Chara a lurker in his defense of them.
5) His interactions regarding KTS's innocent child are just awkward.
6) Cooldog had prod dodges delaying content promised repeatedly.
7) His ISO has virtually no interaction with Cakey.
8) He's never pushed as a lurker when the push was to lynch a lurker.
9) Loopdan has the same broken promises.
10) Mathblade has only taken stances that are ridiculous, designed not to give information after they flip.
11) They're making manipulative personal appeals to me, while at the same time discrediting me.
12) The CoolDog didn't claim ascetic early on but Math did.
13) Lars doesn't make sense as an ability cloner (he's a human bully who doesn't really do anything). [Caveat: I'm still in Season 1]
14) When pressured for plausible reads, they give none.
15) Math has jumped to every single counterwagon that existed to her slot, and claimed to scumread them all.
16) The constant doubtcasting of Mastina is terrible.
17) The stretch to try and argue I townread them.
18) Math views Shiro's ISO the exact opposite of Farside, but neither question each other.
19) Math buddying TFL.

Okay, so I unspoiled this so everyone can see this in its entirety. This. So much this. Every point here, literally every point here, is valid and perfectly summarizes my feelings on Mathblade.

[mastin2]

Mathblade and Farside are treating me exactly like SirCakez who flipped scum and the wagon developed similarly to SirCakez.

While I recognize it as slightly different, there

are

some rather striking similarities.

VERY striking similarities.

Mathblade's wagon has a near-perfect mirror to the SirCakez wagon development. Mathblade is treating Titus similarly.
farside among others is treating Mathblade similarly to how SirCakez was treated, though this is where I diverge from Titus in that I think this happens to not be alignment-indicative.

Otherwise, though, I still think it's a valid point.

Mathblade will not flip town.

[mastin2]

Guys math isn't scum
Their posts don't look like self preservation, if that's what they were trying to do they wouldn't have made the pushes they made

Mathblade's been alternating votes, continuously, between Shiro and DGB, the two largest counterwagons to them.

That isn't an effort at self-preservation...

...

How

?

Fixed.

[mastin2]

That's okay Mastin. As I told Yume when Titus didn't believe us: the best we can do is tell you what we figured out so people aren't doing dumb things out of ignorance.

Dude.
Yume literally has

mod confirmation that I am town

.
You trusted Yume enough to tell Yume.

You can get Yume to tell

a player literally fucking confirmed town

what you've got.

[mastin2]

Yeah there's absolutely nothing ascetic-like in that post.
Unless you count facepalming to Klingoncelt's miller CC as a soft, which...is a stretch upon stretching.

[mastin2]

I think the Klingoncelt kill was designed more to get town fighting with each other more than anything else.

Point of order: the Klingoncelt kill was from the same source as the Firebringer kill.

Anyway, I'm V/LA, so I'm not going to read the thread in its entirety tonight.

But I'll say this much: I picked the order on my list using as much information as I had at my disposal, between what I know, what I've analyzed, what I've speculated, what I've been told, and then filtered it through what other players (especially ones I trust) have analyzed and given opinions on. I knew the list wouldn't be perfect, but given I couldn't run the list through publicly (there wasn't enough time to coordinate with so much as Titus), I did the best I could.

I did some analysis during the night, which I might share once fully caught up, or might wait on. Needless to say: I do have ideas, on wagon composition throughout the game, on player contributions throughout the game, and other miscellaneous stuff. Not perfect, not nailed down, but at least some thoughts.

I think this is everything which should be shared with me not yet having read the thread.

[mastin2]

Blah.
Apologies.
I was

supposed

to be off my V/LA today, because I was SUPPOSED to be able to come onto mafiascum today.
It's 5 AM and I need to get some sleep, so that aint happening today. (I mean. It could. Nothing stopping me. It's just that generally, I prefer to at least maintain SOME semblance of going to bed when it's still dark outside my window. And if I started, I'd be working for at least 2-3 hours, if not more, because that's how much a time commitment MS is, especially when I'm behind.)

[mastin2]

Um.
To clarify.
"Today" means Tuesday.
And it's technically Wednesday now, even though to my subjective perspective of time, it's still Tuesday.
Meaning, I was SUPPOSED to give you content on Tuesday (my today), but I haven't.

I'm not going to sleep for 12 hours, so I

should

have some time tomorrow, and hopefully, I'll actually have time for mafiascum on Wednesday. (You know, the day that it is to...basically everyone else in the world.) I just really think it'd be healthier for me to go to bed right now than to catch up at this very moment. (Well, technically, it'd be healthier for me to have been in bed three hours ago or so, but, the sooner, the better.)

[mastin2]

Goddammit, mastina.
Why on earth can I never play a game without hitting a spot--however brief--where I can't play?

Okay.
So.
I'll set a timer.
I'll be up before noon tomorrow (Thursday).
I don't leave until six.
I'll have some daily obligations, but I'll spend the majority of those six hours on HERE.
Tomorrow will be my mafia day. (I'll make Friday be my real-life work day, since Saturday is going to be ~special event~ day that I am very much looking forward to. I'll be posting about it on Saturday, too! So be curious. Or read my blog, which has the answer in it.)

Apologies I'm delaying a day further. I honestly don't know where that time went. It wasn't wasted; I

used

it. I used every minute up to now (4 AM) doing productive work of some kind or another. (Up to and including art.) It just wasn't on here, and I need to fix that tomorrow since I've been out of the game since the day phase began, and I did sort-of have that plan and all which I don't even know the status of! I owe you all better, so I'll make it my first priority for Thursday. I hate apologizing this much; the more it happens, the less each one means. But all the same: I do sincerely mean I'm sorry for the holdup. I suck. I'll try to be better. Inertia's a bitch but I can best it.

[mastin2]

(Yes, it's 3 PM. Blame my mom for hogging the computer for basically three hours. But I'm here.)

Also, can whoever controls this delayed flip thing (because OBVIOUSLY someone directly controls it, or else mathblades flip wouldn't have happened in the middle of the night)

Point of clarity, that was actually because of a dialog with Varsoon.

One best not left disclosed.

[mastin2]

One of them is something we asked Yume to relay to Mastin yesterday.

Bug Yume to either post, or repost, this, because I don't remember what it is you're talking about.

[mastin2]

Congrats to Titus for helping the scum team hide.

If you are town, Titus is not the player I would say this for.
Because, uh, yeah.

I want to think you are scum so badly for this.
Really, I do.

I really, really do.
Because my life would be SO much simpler if the person who has been obstructing us the whole. fucking. game. Was just scum, rather than town in the way.
Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally, I do.
And, dammit! There's lots of good reasons for you to be scum!
There's a lot of things which make you look incredibly bad and I SO want you to be scum because of them.

But no matter how hard I try.
I just can't see myself thinking you're actually scum.
Something tells me you're just another mislynch in the making, that was offered on a silver platter to the scum.

I'll be looking at the wagon on you (which I caught there being) when I get to the relevant point, and crossreferencing it with my notes on SirCakez and Mathblade. (Spoiler alert: scum bussed SirCakez HARD. I'd have to check my notes, but I

believe

there's a more even spread in regards to Mathblade, with a

slight

lean towards them being off the wagon.)

[mastin2]

@MoI, You have the ok. We just are not lynching ANYONE until the beach claims resolve, no matter how right I am convinced I am. We need to do the math.

Ok sounds good.
VOTE: Farside

By the way, just sayin'.
I absolutely hate you.

I don't exactly have a lot of experience with Killthestory, but I was townreading him enough where I wasn't really bothering to read him.
Now, you.
You, I know I can't read. There's a damn good reason I policy-cop you whenever I have that power. (Hmm, probably shouldn't have said that considering I won the beach event, but oh well.)
And, dammit.

I'm scumreading your posts, in spite of me trying not to.
Thus, why I hate you.

[mastin2]

since Mastin has posted less and less

Fine with this, btw. I've had personality changes over the course of the game. On D1, I felt better than me. On D2, I felt different from me, but not necessarily better. Today, I just feel like me, mastina. Which, mind you, isn't a bad thing. It's just, well, a thing. The magical energy I had on D1 isn't around, and it's not because of real-life struggles, though those certainly don't help things.

Since this is related to mafia games, can't exactly talk about it on my blog, but I would if I could, about that feeling.

That being said

, I do have contributions to make! mastina still gives relevant thoughts, working behind the scenes quite a bit. On D1, I was pretty much all "out here", in the open. D2 remained largely open. But here, D3, I'm largely holding back. Yet, in spite of holding back, I think I have relevant content to share. Namely, my scumreads. (I've more or less told Yume that Yume's free to share anything I've said in there to Titus, and I do mean anything, including my VCA and my scumreads and my basic thoughts. I narrowed things down to a pool of six, and that was pre-beach. With the beach event, I'm hoping for some further refinement, but since I don't know if we've finished the claims yet, I'll wait.)

[mastin2]

It's TWIE's fault LOL he forgot to mention it in the PT

This excuse works a lot better when moderators don't send you reminder PMs as Varsoon obsessively does.
This is also the second time you have used this excuse. First, to justify not allying with Titus. And now, this.

Just sayin'.

[mastin2]

(but the again I had Mastina pegged for a totally different character and thus a totally different role than this Centipeetle thing which I don't even know if it's Town to begin with).

Thus, miller!
But still confirmed town, thanks to my episode event.

[mastin2]

Farside22 (7)

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion,

TheWayItEnds

, DrippingGoofball,

Creature

Did I mention I'm not a fan of the farside wagon?

'Cause, uh, yeah.
Removed the names which're town. Strike = strongly believe to be town but not absolutely sure; underline = weakly believe to be town as a townread but could be convinced otherwise.
I'm dead serious about Magna by the way: if anyone has

anything

they'd like to share about him which would make me feel better (aside from him being in the KTS slot), I'd love to have it so that I could actually write him off and not bother getting a read on him.
'Cause, uh, yeah. As-is. He's someone I desperately want to be alignment confirmed one way or another.

[mastin2]

What I don't get is why we are lynching you over scum hiding among the lurkers/sheep

^This is pretty much my thoughts on the matter.

farside looks really bad.
I don't think she's scum.
I want to lynch scum.

If farside has a third party wincon that fucks over the town, I won't blame farside, nor will I blame the town for letting it happen, nor will I blame the scum for letting it happen. I will write a very fucking long rant to Varsoon about not learning his damn lesson.
If farside has a third party wincon that doesn't fuck the town over...why bother?
If farside IS town...why bother?

It's only if farside is scum that we bother.
And I don't believe she is.

[mastin2]

Almost, definitely not. Rational, probably not. all Skybird really has going for her is her PT with Steven. i would pick that.
are we done getting all of the beachapalooza claims?

More or less, though I don't think I claimed.

Obviously, I voted for myself.

[mastin2]

RR: it's been called a permanent alliance, so that's how i'm treating it.

I caught wind of this being mod corrected, but if not:
I'm self-correcting it.
I've said this every fucking day but people keep on forgetting it for some weird reason.

It's NOT an alliance.
It's a masonry.
It does not count as an alliance.
It does not function in any way shape nor form as an alliance.
Hell.
Even the topic we have doesn't work like an alliance, thanks to being active full-time, day and night.

[mastin2]

@Drixx, Yume insists it's an alliance.

Yume is wrong. It is not called an alliance. It does not function as an alliance. This is my damn power we're talking about. Since Yume revealed as Steven, I can tell you this publicly now: my event (Monster Reunion, natch) was to gain a topic with Steven Universe, that would last for the whole game. In that topic, I would be mod-confirmed town to Steven Universe.

Since coordinating with the protagonist and knowing who they are, and having THEM know I was town, all seemed like good ideas, this is why I triggered it as soon as possible. But it's a TOPIC. Not an ALLIANCE. Topic. My damn ability! I know the wording in my PM, and it specifically said topic. Not alliance.

[mastin2]

yume stop hiding flips

From what Yume told me: Mathblade was not Yume's fault.
Varsoon

assumed

Yume wanted Mathblade's flip hidden, Yume told Varsoon "No, I didn't?", and that's why the flip occurred early, during the night, because it was mod error of sorts.

That's more or less what I picked up from what Yume said to me, at the least. Yume can feel free to correct this.

[mastin2]

(Also, btw, this is why I was ranting about Skybird, for some obvious reasons. Now that everyone knows I got to be with Steven Universe AGAIN, with me ironically as Centipeedle*, and this time as absolute confirmed town, you can imagine my rather livid reaction upon learning that there was

another

person who got to be with Steven Universe AT THE SAME TIME. Except, Skybird's was apparently an alliance, whereas mine isn't.)

*V did appreciate the humor and wanted to comment on the ranting I was doing against him, but for obvious reasons, couldn't.

[mastin2]

Rational: mastin (+1)
Skybird: mastin (+1)
Almost: mastin (+1)
Mastin: self (+3)
Yume: mastin (+1)
total: 7

Chara: self (+3)
Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5

Titus: self (+3)
Kraska: Titus (+1)
Xkfyu: Titus (+1)
Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6

Shiro: none
Snarky: none
DGB: none
Random: none
Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?)
TWIE: none

Creature: shadow step
Magna: voted Rational
Shadow step: Almost
Fire: Rational

McMenno: self

So...we're assuming, at this point: three groupscum and one traitor.
The traitor, by necessity, could not have voted Not Chara, Titus, or me. They don't know how scum are voting, so they cannot coordinate a vote. Most likely, they submit a no-vote, identical to the worthless votes in analysis.
By necessity, one groupscum would also be in that group.
Two scum players could coordinate their votes onto a player in the top three, but only one of them would be able to claim being there; the other would be forced to claim none.
This means:

Exactly one scum in:

RR/Skybird/Almost50/NotChara/farside22/kraska/Xkfyu/grapes.
(NOTE: two becomes possible if, and ONLY if, there's four groupscum.)

Exactly three scum in:

Shiro/Snarky/DGB/randomidget/fuzzylogic/TWIE/Creature/Magna/Shadow_step/Firebringer.

I have thoughts on both groups, and I do need to cross-reference this with my notes on my analysis.

But I strongly believe that the scum in the first group is kraskaesque. VERY strongly. And that the other names there are all town. (This is a combination of a very serious scumread on kraskaesque, and a not-scumread on literally every name there aside from kraska.)

The second group is more tricky. User feedback would be appreciated. For instance, this is largely where a player like, saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, Titus comes in.

[mastin2]

Worth noting: Not Chara is confirmed as town from this.
Not Chara got 5 points.
Even if Not Chara were scum and farside were scum, that would mean they'd get 1.5 votes, and 1 vote, respectively, for it. Then, factor in scumbuddies: one scumbuddy brings the total up to 3. That's three scum voting, and you get 3 votes. Then, factor in two more. You still end up short, at only 4.

In other words, Not Chara cannot be scum, no matter what. (This is rather handy for my analysis!)
farside is, in theory, possible: her vote would be worth one point. (So, 4.) Two scumbuddies would bring that total up to five.
However, I do not think that probable.

[mastin2]

Rational: mastin (+1) Skybird: mastin (+1) Almost: mastin (+1) Mastin: self (+3) Yume: mastin (+1)
total: 7

Chara: self (+3) Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5

Titus: self (+3) Kraska: Titus (+1) Xkfyu: Titus (+1) Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6

Shiro: none Snarky: none DGB: none Random: none Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?) TWIE: none
Creature: shadow step Magna: voted Rational Shadow step: Almost Fire: Rational
McMenno: self

So...we're assuming, at this point: three groupscum and one traitor.
The traitor, by necessity, could not have voted Not Chara, Titus, or me. They don't know how scum are voting, so they cannot coordinate a vote. Most likely, they submit a no-vote, identical to the worthless votes in analysis.
By necessity, one groupscum would also be in that group.
Two scum players could coordinate their votes onto a player in the top three, but only one of them would be able to claim being there; the other would be forced to claim none.
This means:

Exactly one scum in:

RR/Skybird/Almost50/NotChara/farside22/kraska/Xkfyu/grapes.
(NOTE: two becomes possible if, and ONLY if, there's four groupscum.)

Exactly three scum in:

Shiro/Snarky/DGB/randomidget/fuzzylogic/TWIE/Creature/Magna/Shadow_step/Firebringer.

I have thoughts on both groups, and I do need to cross-reference this with my notes on my analysis.

But I strongly believe that the scum in the first group is kraskaesque. VERY strongly. And that the other names there are all town. (This is a combination of a very serious scumread on kraskaesque, and a not-scumread on literally every name there aside from kraska.)

The second group is more tricky. User feedback would be appreciated. For instance, this is largely where a player like, saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, Titus comes in.

Worth noting: Not Chara is confirmed as town from this.
Not Chara got 5 points.
Even if Not Chara were scum and farside were scum, that would mean they'd get 1.5 votes, and 1 vote, respectively, for it. Then, factor in scumbuddies: one scumbuddy brings the total up to 3. That's three scum voting, and you get 3 votes. Then, factor in two more. You still end up short, at only 4.

In other words, Not Chara cannot be scum, no matter what. (This is rather handy for my analysis!)
farside is, in theory, possible: her vote would be worth one point. (So, 4.) Two scumbuddies would bring that total up to five.
However, I do not think that probable.

Quoting these because of how important they are.

[mastin2]

Flawed analysis. NC as scum would be 1.5, farside as town would be 2, up to 3.5+3 buddies=5.
-Cerb

Yeah.

3

buddies.
That'd require Not Chara + 3 scumbuddies.
But we have SirCakez dead. (5 total groupscum.)
And we're assuming a traitor.

So unless you think either (1) the traitor's been recruited, (2) the scum coordinated with the traitor, (3) there is no traitor and they just have five groupscum, or (4) there is a traitor and six total scum (five group, plus traitor), then, yeah.
Not Chara is town.

I mean, sure.
It does require a few assumptions here.
But do you believe any of the above are true, Cerb? (I definitely don't believe in 2, general consensus is that it's not 3, so that leaves 1 or 4.)

If not, Not Chara must be town.

[mastin2]

Oh, forgot to post what I was actually here for.
Going into the night, I had a POE pool which looked something like this:
kraskaesque/SnarkySnowman/DrippingGoofball/randomidget/Not Chara/Shadow_step, in approximately that order but with lots of guesswork involved.
kraskaesque/SnarkySnowman are my top scumreads. As in, they're strongly, STRONGLY read as scum. kraskaesque slightly more than SnarkySnowman, but both look bad. By both my analysis, and by an overlook of their play. (Iso them, you'll see some of what I'm getting at.)
I do have scumreads on both DGB and randomidget at this point, but not absolute ones like kraska/SnarkySnowman.
Not Chara was similar, except opposite: could have been scum, but I didn't feel like it was.
Shadow_step I just don't have a read on either way, but there's nothing which made him remove him.

This was prior to MoI's posting, of course. He'd be at the Shadow_step level right now. (But could be removed again.) I'd remove Not Chara from this list and am comfortable calling it town.
But, yes, this means I have reasons to remove grapes, Creature, Shiro, TFL, Firebringer, McMenno, farside, Xkfyu, Skybird, Almost50, and RR.

I'm running short on time at the moment. I might not be able to finish my catch-up before leaving, yet alone, go into the analysis, so in the mean time, if you have questions/feedback, just say so and I'll give my response when I'm able to.

[mastin2]

I want to get mastina's thoughts

My thoughts are that if we get a scum flip in the top half of my pile, we've got a BUNDLELOAD of conftown players.
My further thoughts are that farside is not that player.
My thoughts, therefore, are...

VOTE: kraskaesque.

When I'm not short on time, I can explain why. It's a combination of things. Their contributions to this game (rather, lack thereof), some hypocrisy on their part, flat pushes with no conviction (empty tone, essentially), plus some really bad, damning positioning in VCA.

I don't intend to leave the words vague on this one; I do intend to back it up with quotes on what I'm seeing, but I AM short on time so for now, you'll have to either take my word for it or go iso them yourself and see if you can figure out what I mean by this. And also, iso the mod and see where kraskaesque falls on key wagons. (Keep also in mind: SirCakez was bussed. Heavily. He has at least two scum on his wagon, if not three. Proof?

Where's his counterwagon?

If scum made an effort to save SirCakez, why is there no actual counterwagon? They gave up on him at some point, which means at some point...they started bussing.)

[mastin2]

Can you explain why mastin claimed YOU were the source of the kc kill? She said it was the same source as rhe fb thing, which you've claimed....but you say it was scum, not you.

Same ability, different application, basically.
Up to Yume what to disclose about it, but we were both speaking truthfully.
You can see the difference in the wording Varsoon uses: Firebringer was removed from the game.
Klingoncelt wasn't.

[mastin2]

Not even during season finales.

Correct.

The power I give is strengthened (buffed), the power I take away, talking, (debuff) is not lifted.

I'm also not allying with a scumread of mine, period.

[mastin2]

I am out for awhile in a bit, so please feel free to take yor time to explain like the whole post please. I just cannot see your perspective.

mastina stubbornness, the kind I don't get often.

A player who has no objective reason to be town, but subjectively I think is.

Especially given the statistics and my reads. (I.e. scumreading Kraskaesque, townreading farside.)

[mastin2]

I am pretty sure there's a boatload of scum in those that didn't vote the top three choices. Seems deliberate.

Yes it is.
There can be a MAXIMUM of one scum in those who voted the top three choices. Maximum.
The rest, by necessity, are therefore spread among those that didn't.

And there, I need your feedback.

[mastin2]

Why would 5.5 scum not work in single ball?
-Cerb

How many players this game have a third party wincon, Cerb?

Ask yourself that.

Then factor in that, no matter how town these third party wincons are,

they are still not town

. From a strictly-speaking technical perspective.

Yeah, in play, they might be. (For instance, the URS.) But from a strictly speaking, balancing, perspective, they aren't.

[mastin2]

explain the "some hypocrisy on their part" part

That would be your "case" against Shadow.

I use air quotes for good reason.

[mastin2]

Why are you getting so defensive over a single vote ?

Well, to be fair.
It's a single vote by

me

.
And I know how to throw my weight around when need be.

At this stage, I'll throw it around to stop a farside lynch from happening.
I'm not actually in real objection to the DGB lynch, I just don't want to throw my support behind it either, so right now I'm doing my thing.

But, you are right.

[mastin2]

@mastin Weren't you gonna lynch anyone who claimed third party even if you were townreading them previously?

Okay, so I don't like to talk very much about this, because it makes me look insane.
And to be fair, that's because I am a little bit crazy.
But.

To be blunt.

I wasn't mastina on D2 when I said that.
That sounds unusual to say. How could I not be me? But. There is a certain attitude behind me, that makes mastina be mastina. That attitude spans across a wide array of subjects, up to and including...my stance on third parties. My stance, as mastina, on third parties, has always consistently been to leave them alone. I know that contradicts what I said yesterday! But again. When I said I wasn't me D2.
I really meant I wasn't me. I was someone else.

I just fucking RAN a game with benign third parties. Hell! My stance is to leash serial killers! In that if a person claims third party, I'll exploit them for all their worth. (I think many players have seen at least one of those two, but Drixx is the most prominent, even if that did end up backfiring because his slot was scum fakeclaiming.) My stance on third parties can be found in MD if you search my posts in there enough, and I say the same stuff there, that I don't lynch them, that I use them, that I refuse to let them die.

And while I wasn't mastina yesterday.
I AM her today, this game day.

I don't anticipate a shift in personality happening again this game, so it's me for the rest of the game. And even if one did happen, you are confirmed as Steven Universe. You aren't scum. And I want to lynch scum. Universally, across personalities, that will be my first and foremost priority. So there's no way you're getting lynched. If a shift happened, I might support a lynch on a crystal gem (especially since I don't know all of their identities), but otherwise, I'm not touching ANY of the crystal gems that I know,

yet alone

, Steven Universe.

shadow/kraska could be scum/scum just based on how focused they are on being pointless towards one another for no reason.

I did consider the option, yes!

[mastin2]

Also, RR, off of something Yume said to me in the neighborhood: I maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay know a reason why Yume doesn't want Klingoncelt's role to flip.
And if I am right (not sure, this is just me inferring something), then I not only understand the reason why, but think it might be best to keep it that way, though again, this is something I don't actually know for sure.

[mastin2]

she didn't use her vote steal in a scummy way at all. Klingon regained her vote, so clearly she was capable of NOT stealing it/not revealing she could steal it...but all she did was take it early game and see who noticed the extra vote, claimed it, and then gave it back.
Why expose what is basically an I win card late game if she didn't have to? I mean sure, it's quite possibly lylo limited, but considering it requires someone ally with her, it could easily not be because it requires she be townread enough to get someone to ally with her in that situation.

Well for a start: DGB is not a scum mastermind. Her main strength as scum lays in players underestimating her. (Same for her towngame, just different alignments. She relies on scum underestimating her.) She knows how to make a few smart kills here and there (e.g. policy-killing kuribo because he has perfect accuracy in reading her), but otherwise, she's not going to deal with all the role mechanics in the game and create some foolproof winning plan. She's the type of person who uses chaos and confusion to drive the game forward as both alignments: as town she uses it to see what sticks, and as scum she uses it to obfuscate stupidity and insanity and muddy the waters. There's a reason that Serene is one of the most infamous hydras of all time, and it's because she and kuribo have a vaguely similar approach to the game.

Unfortunately, while I know all of the above to be true (more or less), and have that profile on her, I'm unable to properly filter her posts this game to determine which approach she is furthering. The two are nearly identical on the surface level. You have to have a lot of experience with her to tell the difference, and I honestly lack that.

Also, any and all voting powers are explicitly, as per the mod, disabled in lylo.

(Also, Yume told me I was wrong, so yeah, no concern there about the flip. Also also, you're quite correct on kraska.)

[mastin2]

Explain in detail. Because Snarky is never Town in games. Ever. So him appearing as such to you gives me huge pause.

You quoted my post, here, but I think that was in error, because my read on SnarkySnowman is second-strongest scumread. (Kraska being the strongest.) Meaning, I actually agree with you that he looks like scum. (And the post in question had nothing to do whatsoever with SnarkySnowman anyway.)

So much so, that he's actually my secondary lynch preference. (I recognize that kraskaesque, as a top-voter, is someone people will hesitate to lynch, for that reason, though why on earth people would hesitate to lynch kraskaesque when farside was ALSO a top voter and she's the dominant wagon, I have no clue. But I digress.) If kraskaesque isn't the lynch today, I'd actually want it to be SnarkySnowman, because a serious question to ask IS:
Who, exactly, is townreading him, and what is their reason for doing so?

@rR/Mastina, guys I literally just put up where I was on the scumteam and got no comment from either of you?

I don't like poking holes in the logic of conftown players who I'm working with, and that's pretty much all I'd be doing, so that's why I skipped commentary.
You say scum in the no claimers, maybe all of them.
Yet you're advocating for a lynch on farside...who is mod-confirmed no matter what to be a top-voter.
You say there's scum who focused on the mechanics, but who would that be? What players in the game focus on mechanics? Literally the only names I can think of are you/me/RR/MoI. The entire rest of the game I don't see as mechanically-focused players.
You say Skybird is likely scum, while knowing this is mutually exclusive with farside being scum. Aside from the unlikelihood of the scenario in the first place. This also ignores your top-voter part, because Skybird is confirmed no matter what to be a top-voter.

So in short: your scumreads make no sense.

[mastin2]

my eyes are bleeding is that normal

If you actually tried reading kraskaesque's wall of text?

Then yes.

I mean, I suppose you

could

read it, if you needed any further evidence for why kraska's scum, but otherwise...

[mastin2]

Shadow seemed town last page

^This.

Granted, I happen to think randomidget's not so town in saying this, but his point holds true regardless of his alignment: Shadow_step

seriously

towned it up on page 312, in an incredibly-natural, organic way. I could still feasibly see him as scum...but I

very

much sincerely doubt he actually is scum.

kraska scum game is more lurky with very little reason for scum reads.

Okay.

Serious question.

If this isn't a lurky game with very little reason for scumreads.

What the fucking hell

is

?!?

Because, um.
Yeah.

That's basically the HEART of my case on kraskaesque: their absolute lurkfest of an iso with very little reasoning for their scumreads, spanning across the whole game.

[mastin2]

I suspect MoI as possible as the tactician.

Another problem with this: MoI wasn't in the game until recently.
As scum, he'd be forced to quickly improvise if he took the mantle of scum tactician, no? It's not impossible, especially if he read more thoroughly than we were led to believe. But it's still got a flaw:
Do you think the scum's actions so far in the game showed no tactician N1 and only started to have one N2?
Because if not, then any scum tactician would have already been in the game prior to that. I of course, largely refer to the N1 scum event. General consensus seems to be that was a calculated move on their part, yes? So, it'd have to be someone who was in the game already, and Killthestory is many things but a scum tactician is not among them.

[mastin2]

I remember his vote on cakes being a bit more substantiated than just "I disagree with you a lot"

Oh, there was that much to it?

I thought it was just literally a naked vote in prime, optimum bussing range.

[mastin2]

You forgot what I told you in our PT?

No. I'm talking to Titus about flaws in her logic, since she asked me to. And her logic for MoI being scum is inherently flawed. So quite the opposite.

[mastin2]

SirCakez (LYNCH):

McMenno

,

grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu

,

SnarkySnowman, Kraskaeaque

,

Reasonably Rational

Farside22 (3):

killthestory

, Firebringer,

Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22, Skybird

McMenno (2):

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird, randomidget, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball,

Creature

Not quite accurate, but deleted = no chance of being scum, strikethrough = strong (maybe mechanical) reason to believe not scum, underline = strong read as not scum, italics = weaker (less-substantiated, speculative) reason to not be scum.

SirCakez had no effective counterwagon. You can see spots where scum could, feasibly, be (Firebringer/fuzzylogic), but otherwise, the entirety of the possible locations for scum are: on the SirCakez wagon, and in the Not Voting pile.

And if you look at SnarkySnowman/kraskaesque, they do literally join

right

at the prime bussing spot, at a time where his lynch was inevitable. So, half the scumteam on his wagon, the other half off it.
The number of people Not Voting there is suspicious, no?
It's almost as if scum knew SirCakez was flipping scum, knew that lynch couldn't be stopped, and were trying to avoid being caught on it.

Also, run a cross-reference of the names on Not Voting/SirCakez with the names of those who claimed to have not voted/voted not in the top in the Beach event. RR, kraskaesque, Xkfyu, and grapes are literally the only four excluded. ALL of McMenno/Shiro/SnarkySnowman/Shadow_step/randomidget/TWIE/DGB fall in the grouping of worthless/no votes. Now, I have reason to believe McMenno is town. I also have reason to believe Shiro is town.
Giving a more limited pool of SnarkySnowman/Shadow_step/randomidget/TWIE/DGB.
With a weak townread on TWIE, we get SS/S_S/randomidget/DGB.

And, if we assume that the game started with four groupscum and a traitor...then we can assume AT LEAST three scum in those four names. Four, if you think all the top-voters are town.

Given this, and I hate to do this given it'll kill the kraskaesque wagon's momentum:
VOTE: SnarkySnowman.

I really think we should do this.
He looks bad by play. (Isoing him shows this.)
He also looks incredibly bad by pattern recognition in his votes/claimed votes.

But he does have literally at least a 75% chance of flipping scum.
Name a player other than him with that high of odds, just by objective evidence.

[mastin2]

EBWOP:

*It's almost as if scum knew SirCakez was flipping scum, knew that lynch couldn't be stopped, and were trying to avoid being caught on

a counterwagon to

it.

[mastin2]

Should be noted: We know there's a traitor. I don't think the traitor is kraskaesque or SnarkySnowman. It could feasibly be any other possible scum candidate, though the most likely are DGB or Shadow_step. (That doesn't mean they are, though! It's possible for one of DGB/Shadow_step to be town. It's possible for both of them to be groupscum. It's possible for one to be groupscum and the other a traitor. It's just that we know there's a traitor and they're the only two players who have shown any interactions which could be indicative of being a traitor. DGB far moreso than Shadow_step.)

Traitors are

usually

the least-damaging member of the scumteam.
So, while I'm okay with a DGB lynch for much the same reasons as above...one, there's a chance DGB is town (which I don't see for SnarkySnowman), and two, there's the chance DGB is the traitor (which I don't see for SnarkySnowman)...meaning, she's not my preferred lynch, because the lynch preference should be:
Groupscum > traitor > malevolent 3p > anything else. (And, at this juncture, I don't believe we have any malevolent third parties.)

[mastin2]

Mastin can we please just lynch kraska?

I mean, my read there is stronger.

But do you think we can get the support?

As far as I know, I won't get Titus's backing.
I may not get RR's backing, either.
That's about a third of the town's strength, minimum, not backing me (when you throw in who will sheep whom), and if the read's right, scum

certainly

won't.

I don't like compromising, especially when it comes to a lynch like, say, DGB. (That's my last-resort lynch right now.)
But, I honestly don't think I can convince the rest of the town that kraskaesque is scum.

Especially since one of the fears involved in the lynch that players would have is one I myself have.
Like, I'm pretty confident kraskaesque is scum. Yet there is that nagging doubt, "What if I'm wrong?"
If kraskaesque is scum and we lynch them, we clear all of the top-voters.
But if kraskaesque isn't scum and we lynch them, we accomplish nothing except weakening the town's cohesion even further.
And as much as I think kraskaesque is scum. I empathize with those who think/fear kraskaesque is town, because that thought

terrifies

me. I'm afraid of the consequences if I'm wrong.

I don't think I am.
But I don't think I have the guts to stick up, plant my foot down, and stay firm to that read enough to force it through. If I, the person who strongly feels that kraska is scum, am afraid of the what-if involved, how can I reasonably expect to persuade those who aren't as sold on kraska being scum?

Especially when it comes to the logic involved. My case against kraskaesque relies mainly on two factors: their lackluster play, and their bad voting pattern in established VCA.

My case against SnarkySnowman holds those same two values...but also adds in a bad positioning in the Beach event, something kraska unfortunately holds an advantage in. (Kraska was a top-voter, people hesitate to vote a top-voter.) What am I to do? Say to Titus that I think kraskaesque may fit the profile of the scum tactician? That'd be pure speculation on my part (albeit speculation that I kinda like the sound of), not an informed fact, and something that'd be hard to confirm one way or another.

In short: I know my strengths and weaknesses as a player, and I know what Titus best listens to and does/doesn't understand.
The objective points against SnarkySnowman are pretty dang strong.
The points against kraskaesque are good, but not quite as objective.

tl;dr:
I don't think I can spearhead a kraskaesque lynch, no matter my desire to.
I DO think I can spearhead a SnarkySnowman lynch.

[mastin2]

mastin updated thoughts on xk?

Similar to Shiro (and to some extent, Creature): I have speculation in mind, which would if true mean not scum.
I don't have confirmation.

Xkfyu's play is extremely lackluster.
But RR wasn't the only one who caught wind of a possibility. What RR saw might've been different from what I saw, but I did see something which makes me still want to put off any thought of lynching Xkfyu until later. Like, after season finale minimum, later.

[mastin2]

Also,

for Titus:

Spoiler: VCA

Not Chara (5):

mastin2, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Almost50, grapes

Reasonably Rational (3):

Firebringer, McMenno, DrippingGoofball

This is the first juicy votecount in the game. Now, we know Not Chara is town at this point...and yet, we also know that this is an entirely-town wagon on it. That may be a bit weird...but yet, we know it to be true, so I'm not really concerned.

However, keep in mind grapes switched from RR to Not Chara, meaning there could be a brief time where RR was at four votes. I cannot make the same all-town guarantee.

McMenno (5):

CooLDoG

, Firebringer, SirCakez, Seraphim, Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

Reasonably Rational (3):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, Creature

SirCakez (2):

Not Chara, mastin2

The next juicy wagon is this. We know McMenno has one scum on him. The only question is whether it's more than one, and I currently don't think so.
The Not Chara wagon collapsed and reformed with the same names on it, just with Skybird as an extra: again, I think it an abnormality that we have an all-town wagon on town, but since we know it's true, I don't think much of it. The RR wagon has Creature replace Firebringer, so now we know there's at least one player who isn't scum on it, if not two. (McMenno is a townread of mine.)

Reasonably Rational (5):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, mastin2, Creature, Firebringer

McMenno (4):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim, Almost50

Not Chara (4):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Obi-Wan Kenobi

Then we get this. The RR wagon grows in size. The question is: is RR town? If so, then what's the wagon composition look like? Because again, DGB sticks out here. We know that McMenno has one scum on him, and I sincerely doubt he has two. We also know that Not Chara is all-town. So, the majority of the scum weren't voting the major wagons at the time--this might indicate that the scum lacked incentive to do so, as they were all on town.

Not Chara (6):

grapes, Skybird, Yume, Almost50, Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (4):

McMenno, DrippingGoofball, mastin2, Farside22

McMenno (3):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim

We've already covered why kraskaesques's presence here is suspicious. I honestly, legitimately, think we had three town wagons, each wagon with one scum (and exactly one scum, no more) on it at this point.

SirCakez (5):

Not Chara, Yume, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno

Not Chara (3):

grapes, Skybird, Kraskaeaque

Reasonably Rational (3):

DrippingGoofball, Farside22, Firebringer

McMenno (3):

CooLDoG, SirCakez, Seraphim

The Not Chara wagon is remnants. The RR wagon's only addition is Firebringer. The McMenno wagon is remnants. That means none of those wagons were counterwagons to this sudden SirCakez wagon. And, tell me...do any of those votes have a chance of being scum? We know for sure 4/5 aren't, and that looks pretty good for McMenno, especially if you iso him and see that he actually

was

driving for that lynch.

SirCakez (7):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, Yume, grapes, Shiro

Shiro (4):

Farside22, Skybird, Almost50

Added names: grapes and Shiro. Do you think grapes is scum? I don't. Do you think Shiro is scum? I believe there is reason not to. So the wagon is still clean.
And you see the closest thing to a counterwagon? The wagon on Shiro. Which has three names on it. Three names, all of them which have good reason to be town. It can therefore be safely assumed: scum were deliberately avoiding a counterwagon at this point, hoping to talk players down from voting SirCakez through other methods.

SirCakez (10):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, Yume, grapes, Shiro, Firebringer, Reasonably Rational, SnarkySnowman

Shiro (4):

Farside22, Skybird, Almost50

Firebringer (2):

Klingoncelt

McMenno (2):

CooLDoG, Seraphim

Skybird (1):

Creature

Not Chara (1):

Kraskaeaque

Creature (1):

Xkfyu

Obi-Wan Kenobi (1):

SirCakez

Farside22 (1):

killthestory

Not Voting (4):

Foxbird, randomidget, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball

New additions: Firebringer, RR, and SnarkySnowman. Tell me, which of these players do you least trust? Which of these three players is not a townread? Which of these players has a different interaction with SirCakez from the others?

And look at those other wagons. There's still no counterwagon. And there won't be.

SirCakez (10):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi, McMenno, grapes, Shiro, Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume, Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (3):

killthestory, Firebringer, Almost50

Shiro (2):

Farside22, Skybird

Firebringer (2):

Klingoncelt

McMenno (2):

CooLDoG, Thefuzzylogic99

Not Voting (6):

Foxbird, randomidget, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball, Creature, Reasonably Rational

This was post-claim. From the movement of votes: SnarkySnowman and Yume both hopped off the wagon, before rejoining it. Xkfyu joined the wagon, and kraskaesque also joined the wagon.

The closest thing to a counterwagon formed post-claim is the farside wagon, with her gaining votes from Firebringer and Almost50. Unless you think either of them are scum...that means. Again. No scum counterwagon to SirCakez. (Speaking of, SirCakez consistently voting McMenno for most of the day with McMenno being the closest thing to his counterwagon is, again, a reason why McMenno would be town.)

The only real spot for scum other than the wagon on SirCakez is in Shadow_step(Foxbird)/randomidget/TWIE/DGB.

Reasonably Rational (6):

grapes, DrippingGoofball, McMenno, Yume, Creature, mastin2

Foxbird (1):

Kraskaeaque

Ironically, kraskaesque going against the flow here sticks out like a sore thumb.
If there's scum on the RR wagon, the only possibility is DGB.

Loopdan (6):

mastin2, Titus, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, Not Chara

Reasonably Rational (3):

grapes, DrippingGoofball, McMenno

I'd like to point out: where are the scum on these wagons? We know Mathblade was town, and the wagon looks pretty town. (Xkfyu and Shiro are the only possible scum names, but both have reasons to not be scum.) The answer: scum had no incentive to join the wagons because scum weren't being lynched.

Mathblade (9):

mastin2, Titus, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, Not Chara, grapes, McMenno, SnarkySnowman

Again: Mathblade was town. I'm town, you're town, Not Chara is town. Almost50 and grapes are surefire town. Shiro and Xkfyu are both passable town. Do you think McMenno is scum? If not, then that's eight votes in a row that are town, and if you look at the reasoning behind them, this is understandable.

Now compare that with SnarkySnowman as the ninth. His vote sticks out like a sore thumb.

Mathblade (10):

mastin2, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, grapes, McMenno, SnarkySnowman, DrippingGoofball, Yume, Titus

DrippingGoofball (4):

Klingoncelt, Farside22, Not Chara, Firebringer

Mathblade (8):

mastin2, Almost50, Shiro, Xkfyu, McMenno, DrippingGoofball, Yume, Titus

DrippingGoofball (4):

Klingoncelt, Not Chara, Firebringer, SnarkySnowman

First peak of the Mathblade wagon, DGB joins. And, looking at that DGB wagon, we know it's all town.

Then we get SnarkySnowman switching to DGB, but that wagon doesn't gain much traction. Shiro and Mathblade join it, but we know Mathblade was town and Shiro has reason to be town.

So let me ask you this:

Mathblade (

LYNCH

):

mastin2

,

Almost50

,

Xkfyu, McMenno

, DrippingGoofball,

Yume, Titus

,

Creature, Farside22

,

Not Chara

,

grapes

,

Mathblade

, Firebringer

DrippingGoofball (3):

Klingoncelt

, SnarkySnowman,

Shiro

Shadow_Step (1):

Kraskaeaque

Farside22 (1):

randomidget

grapes (1):

killthestory

Xkfyu (1):

Skybird

TheFuzzyLogic99 (1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational

, TheWayItEnds, TheFuzzylogic99

Where are the scum on the mislynch? Literally the only possible names are DGB (off-voter) and Firebringer (off-voter). That means there MUST be at absolute MINIMUM two scum off the Mathblade mislynch, and that's if you assume both DGB and Firebringer are scum. If you assume one's town, then that's three scum off, and if you think both are town, that means all four are off.

What does the off give you?
kraskaesque (top-voter), SnarkySnowman (off-voter), randomidget (off-voter), Shadow_step (off-voter), TWIE (off-voter), and Thefuzzylogic (off-voter).

Six plausible names for at minimum two scum slots. A probability of three, meaning at least half of the above are scum. A possibility of four, making two-thirds scum.

In short: the Mathblade wagon was INCREDIBLY town-driven, in spite of being a mislynch. So you'll find most of the scum outside.
And by no coincidence, most of the players outside are players who were off-voters. (Of the 11 outside the wagon, only 3 were top-voters. The other 8 all were not.)

Worth noting: The "none" answers have ALL of DGB/randomidget/SnarkySnowman.
The worthless-equivalent-to-none answers have Shadow_step.

Guess which group looks worse to me?

[mastin2]

if you prefer Kraskaesque can you explain it? Your approach and ours are really different, as you know. Explain it to me like I'm five.

First off: speculation. If the scumteam has a rational thinker...I think it could be at least one head of kraskaesque. I don't have any rational explanation to justify this. This is my first game with either of the heads as far as I know, so it's not like I have intimate knowledge of them. I don't even have a solid psychological profile. But my gut is telling me, for some reason, that at least one head of kraskaesque is deceptively smart, able to make calculated plays and run the risks and roll the die with smart action choices.

I really wish I had more experience with them to confirm, either alignment would really work because mechanical knowledge as scum tends to not mystically disappear when the slot is town. (Quite the contrary, actually! It's more well-hidden as scum.) So, an inexplicable

feeling

that they are the missing piece in the puzzle, for why the scumteam has made the choices they have.

Second, they fit the same profile for scum play. They have been avoiding the major wagons. The only exception? SirCakez...at the time his lynch became inevitable.

Third, they have made zero pushes that had substance to them.

Fourth, they've been lurking a lot, and this is especially egregious because they are a hydra and neither head has had a marked V/LA that I can recall, at least to my knowledge.

Fifth, hypocrisy: a huge part of their case against Shadow_step is off of Foxbird's (and later, the hydra with Foxbird) inactivity, when Foxbird was V/LA for most of the game. Another huge part of their case against Shadow_step? Aside from inactivity, a lack of content...but a look at their iso will reveal the majority of it to be fluff, and the few times they make a push, it is empty and reasonless, without much substance.

Sixth, their lack of broad reads.
You know they have a scumread on Shadow_step.
Okay.
What about other reads?

They've been narrowly on one subject, and one subject only, for pretty much the whole game.

Seven, because I said so.

[mastin2]

Snarky has only gone after scum from what I see.

Did you bother to check his reasons (rather, lack thereof) for going after SirCakez?
Did you see the timing of his votes? (A vote on SirCakez when nobody else was, which was removed the SECOND someone else did vote. Then, only voting him when the lynch was inevitable. Then, hopping off, onto a counterwagon--I think he voted farside?--and then, back on when SirCakez could not be saved.)

And then.
What other scum do you see? Farside?

You know my opinion there.

You want to talk about a garbage ISO, we got Shadow and Skybird.

Shadow_step is ten times more town than either SnarkySnowman or kraskaesque. He always was, but you apparently weren't paying attention to his posts on...312, was it?...because there is NO way you can read those posts and not think he looks much better. He explained his stances reasonably, and stuck to his guns. He raised good points, and perfectly countered what little offense had been mounted against him. He addressed your concerns, but you brushed him off.

And Skybird has done a hundred times more content-filled iso than kraskaesque or SnarkySnowman. She has given opinions on basically everyone and backed them up with reasons.

It's night and day.

[mastin2]

By the way, yes, this is in fact the reason I've been so busy. (Art is hard.) And was what I was waiting eagerly for, and have been, all week. (Actually, since last Friday. I wanted October 1st to be October 8th. Creating mastina was one goal I had, but releasing that was the other.)

you're defending Farside when the Only thing pointing as town is how much of an ass she is.

There's SEVERAL reasons for farside to be town.
One, meta. This isn't her scumgame. These are all examples of her towngame. Active, stubborn. Repetitive, inefficient, blunt.
This shows her as scum. Lurks, reasonable, clear, efficient, and eloquent.

Two, analysis surrounding her. She isn't being treated like scum are.
Three, mindset.
I've been messing around all day in MD, so I'll just steal a quote from Vi.

More than anything else,

Mafia is a game of understanding people.

Not everyone with a given alignment will react the same way under certain circumstances. However, if you truly understand what goes on behind someone's eyeballs, you can figure out when and whether they're acting out of character. In other words, you believe in the supremacy of meta and will shrug off so-called "textbook scummy behavior" in favor of your insights into why people act the way they do.

You're looking at farside's viewpoint from the purely objective point of her actions being scummy.

But you're ignoring the why behind them.

And the why shows no scum motive, whatsoever. There's tons of scummy moves. There's tons of anti-town plays. Yes! I get it. She looks bad. But is she actually scum? What has she done that, actively, looks like it is meant to further her scum agenda? There's no plan behind her actions. There may be malevolence! There may be bitter hostilities! But where is the attempt to actively push a scum agenda? Nothing you've presented has given me an inkling of that.

None of her pushes make any iota of sense coming from scum. None of her actions make sense coming from scum, either. Her ability being loud means she can't deny being responsible for your failed action, but as scum, it'd make sense to claim the ascetic and get a free pass from any action whatsoever for the entire game. As scum, it'd make sense to claim the ascetic at the time people were asking for it. As scum, it would make sense for her to, thanks to not claiming, lie and said she blocked you.

This wouldn't have been an unreasonable stance to take! You weren't confirmed town at the time the block action would be submitted. So she could hide behind that, and claim she was scumreading you thus blocked you. She did not. She claimed it was an ascetic, the one thing that would make her look WORSE.

She has gone about things in an infuriatingly frustrating way. I get that. I want her to be scum, too, because the game's easier if she is.
But she's not. Pure and simple. A lynch on her isn't a scum lynch. It'd be a policy lynch. And I don't care what personality I have, policy lynching is something I will NEVER tolerate. (Mathblade was not policy, contrary to their claims.)

Also, let me ask you this.

What does a farside townflip tell us?

That she was being truthful about what she said?

We already know that! We've observed it first-hand. Everything she's said so far has been true, and she has absolutely no reason to lie as any alignment.

Farside is a shiny.
A really damn ANNOYING shiny.
The biggest fucking shiny ever, even larger than Firebringer could ever hope to be. (And you do see him deliberately trying.)
But a shiny that just so happens to be town.

Farside has, consistently, shown a mindset that is deliberately note helpful. Farside has, consistently, shown a mindset that is deliberately antagonistic. Farside has, consistently, deliberately been fighting you at every turn. You use that as evidence she's scum. But I submit it as the final proof she's town, because let me ask you this:

Do you honestly think farside, as scum, thinks she can control the game?
Do you honestly think farside, as scum, thinks that by engaging you with this level of consistency and hostility, she will save the rest of her scumteam?
Do you honestly think farside, as scum, deliberately sacrifices her own life?
Do you honestly believe farside, as scum, is spamming just for the sake of a smokescreen?

Because the answer for farside to be scum must be 'yes' on ALL of those, and for me, every single one of them, I scream NO.

Farside has been toxic to the game.
I get that.

But farside won't flip scum.

I think Kraska is the one providing content out of Kraska v shadow step. I don't get how you see shadow going why me and deflecting as townish.

You're gonna need to back that kraska point up, because I saw not a lick of deflection from Shadow. He perfectly answered everything that was brought to him, and if you're not satisfied, I can show it. He handled that interaction magnificently.

[mastin2]

This strongly suggests that if Creature is scum Xkfyku is not scum.

Not happening because you are wrong, Creature is not scum.

Snarky is voting not town.

This is you making a false assumption, off of farside being scum.

farside isn't flipping scum.

I guarantee you.
Your whole damn analysis falls apart, because EVERYTHING.
Literally

everything

.
You are writing.
Is relying on that one. fucking. read. Which I guarantee you is wrong.
Not for any role-reasons.
But because farside just isn't scum here no matter how much I want her to be.
The more and more people push her as scum, and the more they present 'reasons' for it, the less and less I'm inclined to actually follow them, because the less and less I see them making anything I'd even consider passable as a point.

Meanwhile Snarky and Creature are voting scum. The first two voters on a scum wagon when there

must

be a town wagon for them to choose.

Yeah!
Exactly!
We had two large wagons, on town players,

driven by town players

.
SnarkySnowman had NO incentive to vote there.
He had EVERY incentive to vote SirCakez as a distancing vote, because his vote was harmless.
What did he do the MOMENT SirCakez got traction?

He hopped off the wagon.

Dual iso SnarkySnowman, and Varsoon. Literally the

moment

SirCakez gets a wagon, he switches onto farside.

Snarky has moved back to Farside, who by her own confession is not town.

Any "not town" that is not groupscum can, and SHOULD, be counted as town for the purposes of VCA. This is really fucking basic logic. I don't give a damn if farside's town or third party. As long as she's not groupscum--and she's not--she counts as town for VCA.

Farside is distancing from Cakey here, since she never went back when he was under the threat of lynch.

You say this of farside, but ignore it for SnarkySnowman. SnarkySnowman jumped on when it was safe. farside's vote was the THIRD on SirCakez.

She turned it into a wagon

.

The distancing vote was, therefore, SnarkySnowman. NOT farside.

All of your VCA is using those assumptions.
You've had pre-existing scumreads on Creature, Skybird, and farside basically the whole game, with a scumread on RR existing on-and-off.

Snarky votes SirCakez back, but Creature never does. A Farside wagon emerges after the wagon on SirCakez is destined to be lynched.

And, if you're paying attention...you'd note Snarky hopes on the wagon in prime bussing range...hops

off

the wagon onto farside (seriously, iso him and the mod!), then when that fails, comes back on. It's almost like he was trying to get a COUNTERWAGON going or something to SAVE SirCakez.

[mastin2]

If DGB was scum, why would the scumteam feel confident enough to mass no vote?

It's almost like people are forgetting that we have a traitor in the game.
That, or they are forgetting how traitors work.

DGB's not confscum, you're right. DGB's got a chance of being town. She's got a much higher chance of being scum. The main question isn't "town or scum?", it's "groupscum or traitor?". With the outside possibility of being town.

Why's he first on the scene when town are starting to perk their ears to the rambles of cakescum.
And never around to sift through solving the textual forest that is this game with the rest of us.

Basically, this.

SnarkySnowman was the first to vote SirCakez...but immediately backed out of that when it was just beginning to look like it was actually a possible lynch.

SnarkySnowman jumped back on the wagon as the tenth voter, immediately after Reasonably Rational.
Again, optimum bussing position.

These are post trying to create a connection to a player they know is scum.
Snarky votes, then unvote cakez when the wagon starts going. Then jumps on when the wagon is full steam.

Also this.

He tried to Strongarm a lynch away from RR and NC onto Farside though. At sometime, you give up and go to the acceptable second.

Yes, which...
...There is absolutely no consequences to if all the players in question are town!

I think RR, Creature, Farside, Skybird, Shadow. Thoughts?

You'd be

lucky

to find one scum in there.

LUCKY.

Especially since, as

mathematically proven by the Beach event

, half those names

cannot

be scum.
RR, Skybird, and farside were all top voters. There could be one scum in the top voters, yes. There cannot be three. It is a physical impossibility. Furthermore! Furthermore, for farside to be scum, both RR and Skybird MUST be town no matter what because I don't care HOW big the scumteam is, they don't have enough votes to pull off faking farside's town vote AND faking a second vote.

You're not connecting the dots, Titus.

[mastin2]

Mastin have you ever actually played with Snarky?

Looking things up, I don't think so (if I did, probably as a hydra), but it doesn't matter. Lurky, low-content, borderline-village-idiots are NOT unreadable. There's town ways of them pushing, and scum ways of them pushing, and SnarkySnowman is in the scum way. This is not some objective, universal standard I'm using. This is a standard specific to his profile as a player. Same way as my read on farside is not an objective universal standard; it's based specifically on her profile, and what I know of her.

I might not know much about SnarkySnowman. But I know enough about him to know what is, and is not, a sign of town. Takes one to know one, you could say. Been a lurker village idiot, know how lurker village idiots think.

Titus has made very good points in regards to how he voted.

...Which rely entirely on farside being scum. And I do mean. ENTIRELY.

The policy lynch being pushed right now is the lynch on farside. Not the lynch on SnarkySnowman.

[mastin2]

even if Farside is town and lying about being 3p for some reason, he didn't need to beg for Farside votes. He could have compromised or lurked.

For the compromising: why?
Why?

I ask.
Why would he need to?

Assume RR town.
Assume Not Chara town.
Both of those are good assumptions.
SirCakez wasn't on either of those wagons, now, was he?
The closest we have to a

possible

scum name on there is DGB, and she's more likely to be a traitor than she is to be groupscum.

If SirCakez, scum, felt no incentive to be on either of the lead wagons...
...Why would SnarkySnowman, as scum, feel any differently?

He wouldn't. Rather the opposite: he'd have that same motivation to stay off and do his own thing.

As for the lurking...

Did you READ his iso?
That's exactly what he did!

[mastin2]

I am trying to reach out to Mastina as I strongly feel she is wrong and dividing the town.

Then don't piss me off by lynching farside!

I'm not wrong here.

GOD I wish I was.

I want to be wrong, I really, really do.
You have no clue how much it'd be easier, so fucking much easier, if farside was scum. To have the shitfest finally end with it revealed that the main person causing our woes was against us for damn good reason.
It'd also be just so damn simple for me to let her die. It'd be pathetically easy. All I'd have to do is stop defending her.

Not.
even.
cast.
a.
vote.

Just stop defending her, and she'd die.

But, dammit.
I'm

not

wrong.

I really, really do wish I was. That it was this easy, this simple, that farside would just be scum and all our woes, all our troubles, would be over because things would just play out like a fucking fairy tale. The person who is obviously the bad girl gets killed, the heroes go on to fight another day, triumphant.

So tempting

.
To just let it happen, and show you that, yes, I was right.

But goddammit.
I can't let that go.

Farside won't flip scum.
And ANY piece of analysis assuming she will is going to similarly be worthless.

[mastin2]

Like ... I personally find it basically not believable that Varsoon went and read that monstrous game and pulled out my fake claims and turned it into a role, or that he just happened to make exactly that role.

Well, while farside was in that game (though she replaced out, maybe before you had publicly claimed--that'd be important! If she didn't see the claim she couldn't have known it), she

also

knows that there are no less than FOUR people (Skybird, you, me, and TWIE) who are familiar with that game. In other words: she would know it would never ever EVER creep past our watchful eyes.

Especially

neither yours nor mine.

In other words: she wouldn't invent that as a fakeclaim.
And, we know that V's safeclaims are just as good as real roles.
Ergo, if farside didn't bullshit her claim, it was either her real role, or a fakeclaim given to her by Varsoon.
In either case, this point is not one I see as valid, for exactly that reason.

farside wouldn't claim something she absolutely KNEW would get her lynched.
If it wasn't her, it was Varsoon.
So deal with it.

I think an honest Farside would have engaged and bent over backwards to work with us.

An honest, reasonable farside is a fucking SCUM farside.

[mastin2]

Listen, I get that she called you scum and you kind read as taking offense but it also reads fake. Vote snarky or vote Dbg, hell vote me, but that argument isn't going to solve anything.

Pretty much, yeah!

[mastin2]

The people who allied with yume seem to have polar opinions on farside. This is pretty weird and I'm trying to figure out what's going on here, stop calling this fishing

Oh hey, a kraskaesque post worth pointing out!

Okay, so this is pretty much textbook scum middlemanning. What's the term I used for this before?
Ah, yes.
Peacekeeping.

This is a scum peacekeeper.

Remember how I said Titus was a town peacekeeper? I described it way back near the very beginning of D2.
In that wall, 3381, I describe what a scum peacekeeper is.

And this?

THIS is the scum counterpart.

[mastin2]

Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on

Like.
Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it.
Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.

Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?

[mastin2]

mastin, we can lynch Snarky after farside uses her ability. fair?

I don't see what it'd accomplish, but I'm not opposed.
It just proves what we already know, like I said.

[mastin2]

It's really getting to me that each of you has her own "couple of players" she insists on being Town for no apparent reason.

Maybe, just maybe, that's because I have damn good reason to be saying these things!

(This post, by the way? Town peacekeeper. He tries to dissolve the conflict and give input. Contrast kraskaesque.)

WHY?

~Reasons~ best left unsaid.
That's not a play-based read.

[mastin2]

[quote="In post 8089, Varsoon"

Farside22 (LYNCH?):

Titus

,

SnarkySnowman

,

MagnaofIllusion

, TheWayItEnds,

DrippingGoofball

,

Skybird

,

Yume

,

Xkfyu

,

Not Chara

,

McMenno

,

Kraskaeaque

,

Almost50

DrippingGoofball (3):

Shiro

, Thefuzzylogic99,

Creature

SnarkySnowman (3):

mastin2

,

grapes

,

Farside22

Kraskaesque (1):

Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (1):

Firebringer

Not Voting (2):

Reasonably Rational,

randomidget

[/quote] Justsayin'.

[mastin2]

Also,
VOTE: SnarkySnowman.

[mastin2]

Farside22 (LYNCH?):

Titus

,

SnarkySnowman

,

MagnaofIllusion

, TheWayItEnds,

DrippingGoofball

,

Skybird

,

Yume

,

Xkfyu

,

Not Chara

,

McMenno

,

Kraskaeaque

,

Almost50

DrippingGoofball (3):

Shiro

, Thefuzzylogic99,

Creature

SnarkySnowman (3):

mastin2

,

grapes

,

Farside22

Kraskaesque (1):

Shadow_Step

Shadow_Step (1):

Firebringer

Not Voting (2):

Reasonably Rational,

randomidget

Justsayin'.

Fixed.

[mastin2]

Hi mastin, farside lynch already happened and is tomorrow's battle to fight, your proposed lynch is being propelled forward, please look at the alliances situation and figure out where you're going to fit in.

It was suggested ages ago that I do McMenno-Not Chara.
I am not opposed to that.
But I am under the impression that combo is no longer viable.

However.
I've made it clear in no uncertain terms who my scumreads are.
I will reject any alliance that has kraska, DGB, randomidget, or SnarkySnowman as a part of it.
Literally any other names I'll accept.

[mastin2]

Your whole view seems to depend on Farside as town.

No shit, sherlock.

What would you seriously consider a point on Mastina if lying, obstruction, and not full claiming are not good enough?

Actual evidence that holds game relevance.
None of those actions hold scum motive. They're antitown. So lynching her is policy, okay, lynch the person who did these antitown actions.
But they lack scum behind them.

Not once has the WHY farside would do this as scum been shown.
But all her actions make perfect sense from the perspective of her role as claimed.
I don't like her play any more than you do.

But there's absolutely no way she flips scum here. Everything I've seen has just been objective reasons, divorced from motive. Divorced from mindset. Divorced from the person.
Yet all of those. Literally every single one. Makes sense from the perspective of her being exactly what she says.
"What if she lied?"
Yeah, about what?

Everything.
Literally every fucking thing.
She's claiming can or already has been verified.

So damn right I believe she's not. Given who she is. And given her role. I can see the narrative where she uses it the way she does, but only when she isn't scum.
Given who she is, with that role as scum, I

cannot

see her using things in this manner. Because it makes no sense. And not once has an attempt to show it making sense been given. Nothing makes sense from the perspective of her being scum. There's no narrative. There's no cohesion. There's random garbled messes of points which each individually look good but when compiled, are just...points. That don't show a clear scum angle.

But that same narrative exists in perfect clarity from a town/3p hybrid.

[mastin2]

Creature is my top scum read.

And your scumread is wrong.
Dealwithit.
This aint empty.

[mastin2]

Snarky has zero motivation to bus,

Snarky had

every

reason to bus: early distancing for the towncred, and coming back onto the wagon when it was inevitable...for the towncred.

You're also trying to hold a double-standard: why are you trying to discredit RR's vote which was the ninth, but defending Snarky's vote which was the tenth? I mean, I happen to agree with you that RR's vote wasn't an indicator of RR being town (just, I don't think RR is scum), but you can't have it both ways there.

[mastin2]

Mastin and moi having polar opinions on farside should have made people inclined to ask wtf is going on

Like.
Town peacekeeping: recognizing the issue, trying to resolve it, and give direction to it.
Scum peacekeeping: pointing the issue out and doing fuckall to solve it.

Tell me which of the above this peacekeeping post is?

A scum peacekeeper just tells everyone to play nice and see it the other way.

Kraska wants to get to the bottom of this here and know why.

Except, that's fucking literally all kraskaesque was doing.
Your definition for a scum peacekeeper is correct! Telling people to play nice and see the other way. But that's exactly what the post is.
Compare it to your peacekeeping.
Compare it to Almost50's.
Compare it to mine when I do it.
It's night and fucking day.

[mastin2]

Wow
Welp, I am undecided, if farside22 can't win with scum, they can't turn against us.

This is scum peacekeeping Mastina.

One, not a peacekeeping post.
Two, Creature is town, period.

[mastin2]

All Shadow did was point at people and say look at them.

You sure you're reading players right?
'Cause that's what kraskaesque was doing.
Shadow_step tried to rally support onto kraskaesque--and was very specific. He addressed the possibility of scum-scum, and said, bluntly, that no, it wouldn't be. He correctly shut down the accusation he was doing nothing but tunneling, and said his iso is proof enough. (It is!) This, by the way, is basically no different than what I've been doing; you literally can't take issue with Shadow_step's method of saying "go iso them/me" without taking issue with me doing literally the exact same thing.

7779 also was voicing an incredibly sincere, insightful post about the game, he was very direct and to the point, he directly called kraskaesque's AtE as being exactly that, and he justified his stance for why he's allying with a scumread: to privately talk to them and get more insight on them. This is consistent with his viewpoints on players throughout the whole game. He then

turns things around

. HE asks questions, and relevant ones that hold meaning.

He recognizes what he can, and can't do as a player, and is taking a role he thinks he needs to, which is shown in 7795, where he also further shuts the case on him down.

[mastin2]

Can they talk to you?

Nope! They get a powerful ability which town don't need but which would be a scum's wet dream, buffed up super-strong.
We can't talk at all.

[mastin2]

Sometimes motive isn't readily apparent.

If you take this stance as an objective universal truth, you'll never get my help. (Subjective, as in, for YOU isn't readily apparent, fine by me.)
Because that fundamentally runs against my very core as a scumhunter. If motive isn't apparent, it's because the person reading them isn't good at reading motive.

I don't believe in there being a player, any player, who has a style or a game where motive isn't readily apparent.
Simply in games where players reading for motive fail to get a clear picture.

And I'm telling you.

I HAVE a clear picture on farside's motive. It's difficult to verbalize, words just aren't there, but it makes sense with her role being hers.

I

don't

have that for her as scum.
Believe me, I've looked! I've tried! If it exists, I cannot find it.

So if that's a failure on MY end...show it. Explain her actions in a way that they are alignment-based malevolence.
Because the only malevolence I've seen from farside is personality-based.

If it walks talks and acts like scum, it is scum.

But that's the thing.
I'm fundamentally challenging you on your assertion that what farside's doing is walking talking acting like scum.
Because I don't think an actual scum player acts the way she has.

Survival.

Doesn't fit. Her play hasn't matched that at all. Not once has she panicked. Not once has she lost control. I know the signs of survivalism. She's shown absolutely none. She's LAUGHED at you. She's TAUNTED you. She's flipped the bird at you. That's just about as far away from survivalistic behavior as you'll get.

If Farside is group scum, her motivations were to protect sirCakey, discredit me, and use my meta of being vulnerable early against me. Plus, picking a fight with me let's her hide behind her town meta.

Then show me this.
Because I don't see any sign of this, anywhere.

[mastin2]

Yes it is. He's trying to legitimize both sides of the argument and doing nothing to progress the game forward.

Peacekeeping requires there to be an argument.
That was fencesitting, sure. (Which he flat-out said! He said he was on the fence.)
But it was no peacekeeping post.
He was not recognizing an argument.
He was recognizing a key player.

It's not semantics here. There's a big difference between the two.

It's ultimately irrelevant though, because it makes no difference.
Creature's not scum.

[mastin2]

If I am wrong on Snarky, you will get my vote 100% percent tomorrow, that's how wrong I think you are here.

If you're expecting reciprocation, sorry. You won't find any.
My scumreads on SnarkySnowman, kraskaesque, randomidget, and DrippingGoofball are all separate from one another.

[mastin2]

Mastin2:

Allied with Creature. No Action. Had no Ally.

Okay, so the no action is my fault since I didn't know I could say that, but this is interesting.
I said that I had no ally and that I submitted McMenno.

Also also, the good news is: I got a guilty with my investigation.
The bad news is: I think in spite of the result, TheWayItEnds is town anyway and just has a killing action meaning I (probably) wasted my role.

[mastin2]

(All the same, if it hasn't been done already: TheWayItEnds has some explaining to do.)

[mastin2]

Mastin2:

Allied with Creature. No Action. Had no Ally.

Come to think of it, this has to either be mod error or some sort of fuckery.
If this were a mod-corrected result to accurate, my N1 action would be displayed.
If this was my actual submitted response, it would say I allied with McMenno, because that's what I said.
So, either someone screwed with my result or V made a mistake in displaying it, because I can't see that resolving any other way.

[mastin2]

Also, pretty sure everyone knows them by now but Yume did tell me at some point (not saying when) who the crystal gems were, so I do know their identities.

[mastin2]

Rational: mastin (+1)
Skybird: mastin (+.5) (SCUM!)
Almost: mastin (+1)
Mastin: self (+3) (Town)
Yume: mastin (+1) (Gem/Town)
total: 7 (.5 missing)

Chara: self (+3) (Town?)
Farside: Chara (+2)
total: 5

Titus: self (+3) (Town)
Kraska: Titus (+1)
Xkfyu: Titus (+1)
Grapes: Titus (+1)
total: 6

Shiro: none
Snarky: none
DGB: none (SCUM!)
Random: none
Fuzzy: none (didn't answer?)
TWIE: none

Creature: shadow step
Magna: voted Rational
Shadow step: Almost
Fire: Rational (Town)
McMenno: Self

I mean, this pretty much confirms beyond a shadow of a doubt Almost50 and RR as town, but that's nothing we didn't already know. It also heavily implies farside as town. (Again, scum would have trouble getting Not Chara up to five votes: they HAD to commit two to me, we know this for a fact. DGB could NOT have contributed to them. We also know this for a fact, off of her role PM. Ergo, to get five votes on Not Chara would require two scum on me, and then farside on Not Chara and then TWO EXTRA scum on Not Chara: farside + 2 + Skybird + 1 +SirCakez already dead + DGB off the scumteam = 7 scum this game.)

[mastin2]

it might've been lost in 345 pages of titus-farside arguing but I believe mastin confirmed this

The name is not included in my alliance.
So I cannot confirm that you, specifically, were allied with me.
However.
I can say I've been allied every day except the first, and my submission has always been you.
You also seem to have demonstrated knowledge of my effect, though obviously I can't confirm that.

[mastin2]

Specifically, I need to hear from Mastina. I think the flips would be shocking to her and let's not be hasty.

Someday, people will learn that because I lie about my confidence level in players (not so much lie, as exaggerate), very few flips surprise me. In particular, Skybird was never a townread off of play, and she did sketchy things. I wrote her off on mechanics. You also seem to think DGB's flip surprises me, when...DGB flipping traitor is exactly what I said she'd flip? And given the NATURE of her traitor role (she didn't know them and they didn't for sure know her), all we can conclude is that she was basically third party: no method of communicating to her scumbuddies, no method of hinting, basically they probably knew she was scum because of how she was acting but made no efforts to save her and probably rather the contrary tried to bus her.

Now!
What I DO need is time to fully assess the roles and mechanics with my new knowledge, which I've been gaining slowly.
That...won't happen right now, I'm a bit swamped with stuff to be honest.
But it will!

[mastin2]

Actually, we're trying to establish if DGB did know.

Read her role card.
She did not know her scumbuddies, as per her role. She had no ability to find them.
Her scumbuddies, as per her role card AND SC's role card (in that SC's role had a "Find Jasper" ability which

scum never got to use

), did not know who she was.

Now!

After she flat-out claimed traitor.
And did a bunch of hella-scummy stuff.
The scumteam would have to be absolute morons to not put 2 and 2 together and realize that, yes, she actually

is

their traitor, refuging in audacity as she may have been.

But!

That is play-based, off of what she claimed in-thread and had Klingoncelt claim for her in-thread.
NOT off of role.

So, sure, maybe the scumteam knew who she was...but did they honestly care when the way they knew was the same exact way the town did? Her method of outing herself to the scumteam was outing herself to the TOWN as well.

Meaning, DGB was effectively a nonentity as far as VCA can be concerned, maybe a third party even: scum knew who she was, and weren't going to go out of their way to protect her. Quite the contrary.

[mastin2]

Taking town to -4 is so pro scum. It cannot come from town. Literally

Just sayin, by the way.

Shadow_step's posting today is in a VASTLY different tone from his posting yesterday.

And his pushes are godawful today.

I think there maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay be a reason for that.

[mastin2]

What is the case on twie?

Well for a start he has a killing action that I haven't seen claimed.

[mastin2]

how has a skybird scumflip affected your reads, mastin

The Skybird flip did nothing.
Other factors make me think Shadow_step is scum (his play today compared to his play yesterday).
I still wouldn't put it past SnarkySnowman being scum.
I have a pretty interesting result on TheWayItEnds telling me he can kill as well.

And that would round me out at five groupscum plus the traitor. (Skybird, SirCakez, DGB, three living.)

But there's wiggle room here.
We know there's gonna be at least one scum in the non-top-three.
A second scum in the top three is not impossible if one of the above is not scum.
I don't think TFL is scum. Nor do I think McMenno is scum.
The other bottom voters have reasons not to be scum.

So if S_S/SS/TWIE isn't the scumteam, practically by necessity there needs to be one on the top.
Ergo, kraskaesque could be scum. But I'm not considering scum outside those four at the moment.

I do need to do analysis given the flip.
But as of this moment, the flip itself changed nothing. My reads haven't changed because of it. The order has changed, but that's thanks to outside circumstances (TWIE result + S_S's play), not from Skybird herself.

[mastin2]

Right now, lynch order for me is basically TWIE/S_S (interchangeable) > SnarkySnowman > kraskaesque > literally anyone else.

I really don't think our lynch should be outside those four today.
But we've got a lot of number crunching and analysis to do. At least I do.
Later.

I'm running on less than 3 hours of sleep so I do need a nap, and I'm INCREDIBLY busy at the moment so I can't spend all too terribly much time on the game right now.

[mastin2]

Take out SS put in Farside?

For fuck's sakes.
Drop the fucking farside scumread already.

She's not fucking scum.

Before I just had really strong feelings about it, and not seeing scum motive from her.

Now there's objective, hard fucking proof, of it.

Skybird's farside interactions are not scum-scum.
Furthermore, and far more importantly, farside's Skybird interactions are not scum-scum.

Plus, if you disagree with me about DGB being basically a nonentity in VCA considerations, if you consider DGB to be a pro-scum name (I do not), then scum were defending DGB by going after farside: Skybird did, and DGB did, and basically all the other scumspects did.

I don't have the time to deal with this shit right now.

But drop that damned read already.
How many times will you twist logic to its extremes and point out theoretical possibilities in order to justify her maybe being scum? Because with every passing piece of evidence we get, the scenario required for her to be scum becomes increasingly contrived and convoluted.

[mastin2]

Scum picked you. Ever wonder why Mastina?

Not in the least, no.
Smart scumplay is strategically dispersing and claiming of their votes.

Scum voting me, and having one scum back them, is reasonable.
Scum voting you, and having one scum back them, is also reasonable. Especially in conjunction with the above.

Scum voting Not Chara, and having the full fucking team back that except two randomly on me, is not so reasonable.

The goal for scum in voting during the Beachapalooza event is to

not stick out

.
Taking actions which stick out,

especially

if a scum member dies, is counterproductive.

Thus, one reason I continue to have that kraskaesque suspicion.
If TWIE/S_S/SS is the scumteam, all the remaining scum were in the not voters, but the more I think about it, the more I think it likely there's a second scum in the top voters...but not on MY wagon, and not on Not Chara's wagon.

If scum had a perfect distribution (and ignoring DGB), we'd have one scum on me (Skybird), one scum on you, one scum in the none, and one scum in those claiming to have voted someone.

Also keep in mind:
kraskaesque, SnarkySnowman, and Shadow_step were all high in the claim order. Now I know it wasn't

perfectly

followed, but they still were in positions where it would be difficult to claim a vote without risking themselves being outed. SnarkySnowman claimed none, and Shadow_step claimed Almost50, who got no other votes.

[mastin2]

mastin why would you choose gunsmith.

As opposed to what?
Bulletproof?
Like the scumteam was gonna try and kill me. I'm usually fairly good at predicting when I am in mortal danger. I didn't feel the least bit threatened.

That other ability?
I sure wouldn't know when to use it effectively.

Of course I was gonna use the cop, because the cop ability I DO know how to use. I literally wrote the book on it.

Also,

Shadow_Step: No Ally Pick. No Action.
Kraskaesque: Allied with McMenno. No Action.
McMenno: Allied with Kraskaesque. Sent Pizza to Titus.
TheFuzzylogic99: Allied with CooLDoG. No Action.
SnarkySnowman No Ally pick. No Action.
Creature: Allied with Shiro. No Action.
TheWayItEnds: No Ally pick. No Action.

Just sayin'. Some of these are a little bit sketchy.

We don't need a vig.

We do, however, lose nothing by testing TWIE.

If he kills a player we designate, and if the scum also get a kill in, then either the scum have a double-kill ability and one of their shots is being directed onto a pro-town target...

...Or he's town, with a killing action.

He probably needs to be lynched before lylo, but I don't support a lynch on him today.

[mastin2]

snarky is roleblocking me.

If SnarkySnowman were lynched, would you be able to vig?

We have to wait on Mastina before thoughts.

I need to do proper analysis. My initial thought though is Shadow Step > TWIE/SnarkySnowman > kraskaesque > literally anyone else, right now.

I do not think TWIE/SnarkySnowman are scum together. I do think one of them is scum.

Also, realized I forgot to address this:

If I die, take a look at who I allied last time. Also, some of you might already know who I am.

I am pretty sure I do know who you are and if you've been paying attention to my posts you would know what I think about this whole situation.

[mastin2]

@Mastin why did you target TWIE over Kraska and Snarky who you were more strongly scum reading?

Because I was aiming for a freakin' innocent, not a guilty!

(Also, I couldn't target Magna because he's a crystal gem and that would be a waste, nor could I target my other top pick because I was informed they have a killing action and thus I'd receive a false positive. Not exactly happy about that, because between Klingoncelt, myself, and TWIE/that other player, if we're all truthful, that's four players who'd show as a guilty to the gunsmith since the miller role is very specific about being ALL investigatives, but I'm willing to buy it.)

I wrote the damn article six years ago, yet it's still relevant.
What would a guilty on SnarkySnowman tell me?
Exactly what everyone already suspected.
What would a guilty on kraskaesque tell me?
Nothing I didn't already suspect.

What would an innocent on SnarkySnowman give us?
It'd tell us he's town, but if he's town this game he's been godawful and absofuckinglutely useless, and you REALLY want someone like THAT as conftown? I sure don't.
What would an innocent on kraskaesque give us?
It'd tell us kraskaesque is town, but kraskaesque is just barely above SnarkySnowman in contribution.

TWIE, on the other hand...one, he's a low-key player: people weren't paying attention to him, and a result on him is a good way to change that. Two, I value TWIE as a lategame player. He's low-key, but he's an incredibly damn GOOD low-key player when he's town. If I got an innocent on him, it would have given him lategame leverage to throw his weight around when he really shines. (TWIE is not an earlygame player.) It would also force scum to take out a player they normally never would, and also make TWIE contribute to his fullest capacity.
And three, I know how dangerous TWIE can be as scum.

Because

he's such a low-key player, he can blend into the background so easily that he gets free reign for the entire game as scum.

But mostly, I was investigating him expecting an innocent.
Getting a guilty is rather inconvenient, to be honest.

What would you do in TFL's position?

My talk about motive is every bit as relevant here as it was before. It does not matter what I would do in TheFuzzyLogic's position.

The ONLY thing which matters is what TheFuzzyLogic would do as town, versus what TheFuzzyLogic would do as scum.
And I happen to have played with TheFuzzyLogic before, enough to know that his stance--while not what I would do--is something I understand him doing as town.

If he were scum with SnarkySnowman, sure, he'd save SnarkySnowman...but then, why would he claim responsibility for the event and having deliberately spared him?
If he were scum and SnarkySnowman wasn't scum...he has EVERY reason to let the lynch go through. Especially if the lynch ends the day! (The description of the event was unclear if the lynch would end the day or not.) A fully anonymous lynch on a town player during the fucking climax that leaves the town with zero chance to coordinate? Yeah, think about that for a moment. (I mean, I admit that's null and void if a lynch wouldn't have ended the day,

butstill

.)

If he's town, like I believe, then him letting SnarkySnowman live is consistent with his stances throughout the game. They are misguided, yes. They are not, however, unreasonable. They are not implausible. They are not totally outrageous. They're things I can fully see where he is coming from, even if I also see where he goes wrong and where I disagree with him as a result.

[mastin2]

Can anyone give a good argument as to why we should not lynch TWIE?

In spite of me getting the guilty, I actually don't think he's scum. That's the closest I have to a good argument, though, since I fully acknowledge a TWIE flip gives us a SHITLOAD of solid, reliable information regardless of his alignment.

It's basically a lesser farside, in that I don't think he's scum, and recognize ALL of the actually-very-good reasons for him to be scum, however, the key difference here is that with farside, I fought that wagon every step of the way and resisted it because I was very strongly against it.
With TWIE, I'm not against it at all. He's not my top preference, of course! But he's not my number one pick. Right now I'd say he's either third or fourth to be honest.

I'm almost certain that Shadow is town.

Considering Shadow_step is my top lynch candidate.

You're not gonna get away with leaving this vague.

[mastin2]

If they wanted me Ic, they just en masse vote me.

You're apparently missing the point.

Scum didn't want any player in particular to win.

Scum wanted first and foremost to

hide

. They knew the votes would be public.
They also knew that if the top voters were all universal townreads, there would be large cries of the top voters all being conftown. And, inversely, that all the non-top voters would be scum candidates.
So by

necessity

, they needed to disperse their votes, in voting blocks of two. (Assuming four groupscum alive plus DGB at the time. Or, alternatively, three groupscum alive plus DGB.)

This isn't some outlandish scenario.
This is half-proven by the vote dispersion already. Skybird was voting me, and by necessity, one other scum must have also been voting me.
Yet who else there could possibly be scum? Almost50? RR?

So it's basically proven fact ONLY two scum voted me.

They did not want me to be the leader. If they did, then it would have been more than two voting me.

So if they didn't want me to be the leader, why vote me at all?

Again.

Simple: to hide.

I shall have a plan in place to either prove or disprove Farside as scum.

Literally redundant with your lynch TWIE plan. Either get a TWIE lynch or don't get a TWIE lynch and use your plan. Or, even better, neither.

Letting this happen just lets the scum no kill to frame TWIE or if TWIE is scum claimed they shot me or scum shot his target.

And this is bad...how?
If scum no-kill to frame TWIE, TWIE still killed someone we as the town designated him to, and forfeited their nightkill...MEANING A TOWN PLAYER GETS TO LIVE THAT WOULD OTHERWISE DIE.
If TWIE is scum and the designated target doesn't die, he gets lynched. We trade one town player who was likely to get nightkilled

anyway

for confirmed fucking scum.

Plus, there's a zero percent chance we are agreeing on a pool given you want kraska (obvtown), snarky (obvtown) and shadow who has had improved play.

Okay.
Serious question.

What's your scumpool, then?

Because farside is not scum.
And neither is Creature.
And I don't think TWIE is scum.

Who else do you suspect?

[mastin2]

Can you consider that maybe you're the one who is misguided and Farside is just that obviously scum?

And violate every rule of occam's razor I've sworn to uphold?

Absolutely not, no.

Your farside-TWIE scumteam requires one

very specific scenario

to have played out. Your farside-TWIE scumteam requires, even with that very specific scenario, a bunch of contrived, convoluted twists and turns and logical leaps that make no sense and don't fucking fit with their actual damn play. Your scumteam lacks coherency. It lacks reason. It lacks logic. It holds no chain of scum motive. It holds no clear links, nothing which says that these things definitely happened. It's a stretch, at

best

. At absolute fucking best, it is a stretch. It is implausible. It goes against all the evidence we have.

So no.

Never.

IMHO, that was a very safe claim VC-wise (yet very ludicrous logic-wise).

My point exactly!

Also snarky wanted to align with a town read and does a block.
No.
Not just no, hell fuck no.

This is a valid point.

[mastin2]

In fact, let's vote on that.
VOTE: SnarkySnowman.

[mastin2]

Scum pool = Mcmenno, kraskaesque, obi

By the way, Titus: rule of three, you're fond of it, right?
Which of these three do you think is most likely to be scum?
Rather, two, given you're one of them!

[mastin2]

These votes reek.

Wtf?

Can you translate this?
How is she calling Obi scum for doing the same thing as her?

This is also a variant on the rule of three, btw: he calls you out, Titus. He calls Xkfyu out. And he calls SnarkySnowman out. Just you three, and you three alone.
Now tell me, which of those three (again, actually two) sticks out more to you.

(Hint: The question to SnarkySnowman is extra-fake especially given his vote on you.)

[mastin2]

Any scumteam smart enough to have 48 hours plans their votes to achieve what they want. That means, scum wanted you over me.

You keep saying this.

But again: it is a fact we had TWO scum on me.
Unless you call Almost50 or RR scum, it cannot be more.

That means the REST of the scum are elsewhere.
And

by necessity

, that means the REST of the scum cannot have put much effort into making me the top. They had no way of controlling how many votes would pop up on me and you. You were bound to get plenty of votes thanks to being an IC. So how, exactly, were they going to ensure I got more than you, by your logic? With a total amounting to ONE vote? I mean...sure, yeah, that's how much I won by...but how would scum know that? Tell me. Especially with your proposed scumteam! Farside, with NotChara. TWIE, with DGB. That means that most of the scum would have ZERO information on where town would vote, other than singular knowledge about NotChara. They'd have no way of influencing that. They'd have no way of knowing where the winds were blowing.

But a scumteam where the members are talking to each other? Much, much, much better control.

Sure, they only had half the vote power, but that doesn't mean they distributed equally.

And why not? For them to have decided on an unequal distribution requires not only EXACT coordination, but ALSO for them to dangerously risk the POE pool narrowing things down to them being scum. Again, at minimum, one scum needed to be in the net-zero voters. But if they didn't distribute their votes, it requires even more of them to be in there.

If TWIE flips town, the odds are insanely terrible of Farside bring scum.

No, they are literally fucking impossible.

Yet, you're refusing to address this point as a strong reason why TWIE should be flipped today.

One, I have, and two, when I did so I specifically mentioned how it's not telling us anything we don't already know in that regard.

If you want to lynch TWIE to confirm the Skybird info he's claiming? Sure, go ahead, that's actually something useful to know. For the guilty? Understandable even if I think it's wrong. If you want to lynch him because of farside,

fuck

no.

Yet, you are hellbent on lynching Snarky or Kraska and doing the scumteam's bidding over a guilty who has excuses that are terrible.

Pot, kettle, black.

You've been trying to lynch farside since day fucking one.

What will you do when it's conclusively proven she's town?
What is your fallback plan?

And, would you even be given the chance?
What if...just. Say. What if, you're proven wrong by TWIE's death...and yet you are somehow killed? Do you have anything to leave us with?

No.
You don't.

Because you've been SO focused on that, you've given nothing else.

[mastin2]

And if you're wondering: there's plenty from me aside from my 3.5 scumreads. (TWIE is the .5.)
I'd lynch/kill them all in order, right now SnarkySnowman > Shadow_step/kraskaesque > TWIE.
If the game doesn't end with all of them dead, then depending on how many scum flips there are within the above (0-2), there would be 1-3 scum that I have cleared.

The first place I would look is in the crystal gems, for a traitor. I have one specific name in mind, with one secondary name as a backup, but I can't say this without revealing who the crystal gems are. (Well, I suppose I can say MoI is the secondary one I'd look at, but this is not a scumread, more of a, "give him a thorough look to make absolutely sure he's not scum" read.)

I would not auto-lynch the gems. One, that'd be a dick move after I promised Yume I wouldn't out them or harm them. Two, that'd be a great way to alienate them from us. But what I

would

do, is I would make absolutely sure they don't come from a scum mindset. I'd demand that they paraphrase their gem chat and give a very close look at them to make sure they're not scum. I'll be honest, I'd want to conclude no scum in there but I'm not sure I would.

But if I did? If I did conclude no scum in the gems, the next thing I would do? I'd look at the two players I have cleared for mechanical reasons. There are exactly two, I believe, that I am applying this to. I'd actually be running this concurrently to the above. This would actually be a bit of a top priority, because I cleared Skybird primarily for mechanical reasons, so if there's scum outside of MY group, I'd look for those players as scum. (Basically crystal gems are special mechanical clears, and these players are different mechanical clears.)

The last place I'd look for scum would be in those that I am townreading off of play. I fully acknowledge, for instance, that it is not impossible for Almost50 or RR to be scum. I have nothing mechanical proving their innocence, other than the belief that scum did not double-down and make sure I got the top position in the Beachapalooza event.

I'd break these categories down some more, but that WOULD involve basically flat-out naming the crystal gems and again, I'm not going to do that; if someone else wants to be a dick and do it first, they can be my guest, but I'm definitely not going to take that blame. For that very same reason, I also can't provide much of a readslist, as my doing so would reveal who I see as what since I have absolutely zero subtlety.

[mastin2]

You on the other hand, REFUSE to consider the CHANCE you might be wrong on Farside because it doesn't fit how you scumhunt.

I refuse to consider farside as scum because of all the MYRIAD of reasons against that, yes.

You're violating Occam's Razor to ignore a guilty and lynch your scumread instead because it fits your view.

I'm not saying let TWIE live indefinitely. I'm saying let TWIE live through today and today alone. And that's a view made, based off of...a combination of mechanical reasons (there's the possibility TWIE can use his vig) and play-based reasons: I'm dead serious I was aiming to get a hard innocent on TWIE. What that means is, he was someone I was townreading. Literally the ONLY reason I have to call him scum is the guilty result, and yet, by giving him one day to prove his ability or die, I am setting a definitive term.

I meanwhile, have come up with a plan to settle Farside that works if we lynch scum today and tomorrow.

Yeah, the problem being you said "if", and TWIE won't give us that.

I'm flat-out refusing to believe my own guilty result. I will let him die tomorrow. I won't oppose his lynch. I might even join it. I will do so fully thinking I'm lynching a false positive. Ideally, he wouldn't be lynched until two or three days later, since I'd prefer to lynch my other scumreads above him. But I won't stop you.

I will resist today.

[mastin2]

@Mastina, Your reads have not changed for days.

Again.
Pot.
Kettle.
Black.

My reads

have

changed, off of new info I have.
Specifically, there are four players (plus Magna) I am mechanically clearing: two are gems (plus Magna), two are not.
My scumread on Shadow_step increased significantly.
My scumreads on SS and kraska have remained the same, sure.
But I also have been working on increasing my other reads: TWIE was one read, and there are other players I am townreading off of play and not role who I have had reads grow stronger on. (But, it's best for me to not reveal who these people are, because by doing so, I am by proxy revealing who I am townreading off of mechanics.) I deliberately avoided doing much analysis on TWIE since I figured I was going to get an innocent and just be able to write him off, but you think I'm not weighing his alignment?

Have you read my words at all?

I'm going back and forth on him with every fucking post I make. Pay attention, and you'll note that one moment I'm calling him confscum and the next moment I'm calling him the most obvtown player to ever obvtown and that's because, surprise!

My read is still fluctuating

. I'm still trying to pin him down.

But your scumread on farside has been there the whole damn game. Nobody, and I mean, NOBODY, can say they've held a scumread on a player for as long as you have on farside. Me? I wasn't scumreading kraskaesque until, what, midway through D2? SnarkySnowman? Wasn't that D3? I wasn't scumreading them at all on D1, I can tell you that much!

So whose reads, exactly, haven't changed?

Mine sure have!

The gatekeeper on the flips is almost certainly scum, debatable if they are a gem.

Yume explained it to me, and I'm not sure how much I should tell you, because this is something I think Yume trusted with me from the very start and was being entirely truthful about. Cliffnotes version: the flip delay started in Yume's hands. It's not a fucking scum ability.

We already lynched the traitor, so looking for a traitor there is dumb.

When I said traitor, I didn't mean role. I meant, mole. Double-agent. Groupscum with a fakeclaim within the group. Whatever you want to call it.

You're not even pretending there's a case on Snarky that doesn't suppose TWIE is town.

Actually, the case on SnarkySnowman is entirely independent from TWIE.
It's just that their interactions do not suggest scumbuddies. I also don't see it as possible both are town because that would mean one of my mechanical (or far less likely, play) reads was wrong.

He made up out of full cloth this mystical blocker.

No, he didn't. SnarkySnowman's ability is something that SnarkySnowman himself will claim as true. He's already implied as much without explicitly stating it.

[mastin2]

You get a guilty, you lynch it. That is Occam's Razor.

And have I so much as ONCE said, we don't lynch him at all?

I've been very consistently saying rather the opposite, acknowledging he does need to die.

But what I've also been saying is rather consistently, I am not going to lynch him today.

Skybird giving you power suggests scum wanted you IC over me.

No, it doesn't. Again: if scum wanted me to have the power, then they would have done more than put two (appearing as one) votes on me.

Tell me.
Say kraskaesque had flipped scum.

How would you feel if I made the argument you are making right now?

You, in my shoes, would say no different.

Snarky is suggested town based off the event.

Again, not true. RR already stated why: scum's topic was, by Varsoon's explicit word, shut down. They could not communicate.

TWIE clears Farside if I am wrong. TWIE flip should unify town.

And I have not once denied either of these! I have supported them. I have also said to wait one fucking day for them.

But you refuse to consider it because scum have framed your narrative.

I refuse to consider it because I have a very damn reasonable request of waiting one fucking day to do it, which is not the end of world. ESPECIALLY not when TWIE will be flipping town.

[mastin2]

Town: Fire, Not Chara, mastin, grapes, farside
Nulltown: Yume, Creature, Klingon, A50, CoolDog
Null: Kraskaesque, KTS, Foxbird, Skybird, Seraphim, Random, TWIE, Shiro, DGB
Nullscum: Xkfyu, Snarky
Scum: Mcmenno, Obi
Special slot who gets their own corner because I can't read them = reasonably rational

You know, we said it before, but coming back: again, I can't help but feel the entirety of the town/nulltown list here is...well, town.
We've got all but three (farside, Creature, A50) who are explicitly clear, and of those three, farside has MANY reasons to not be scum, A50 is a strong townread, and then there's also my special Creature read.

And yet, look at his scum names: McMenno and Titus. Titus isn't scum and McMenno isn't likely scum.
So where's the scum at?

Null, and nullscum.

Also, 1316 is absolutely not scum talking to scum. It just isn't. Farside would not be addressing SirCakez that way if they were scumbuddies.

So yeah my scumreads remain the same
There is probably at least 2 scum among my nulls

Town: Fire, mastin, grapes, farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature, Klingon, A50, Seraphim
Null: Kraskaesque, KTS, Foxbird, Skybird, Seraphim, Random, TWIE, Shiro, DGB, NC, CoolDog
Nullscum: Xkfyu, Snarky
Scum: McMenno, Obi

I mean, he didn't know DGB was the traitor at that point, so she can be excluded from this, butstill. Do you think that Skybird's the only scum there? I sure don't. I think he was potentially being truthful: two in there, one out. That'd be a scumteam of 4 + traitor, smallish, sure, but not impossible.

Like to elaborate mastin I think you're just fitting things to fit your list and not actually analyzing anything outside of that
If that makes sense

I'm bringing this up mostly for my amusement.

Titus.
Your argument against me is

word for word what scum said about me

.
How's that make you feel?

Shiro jumping in and voting Almost gives me bad vibes.
More bullshit from Titus

These kinds of skimmy posts with random comments also give me bad vibes. Feels like scum coasting (no real content in these posts), and Fox hasn't done anything strong content-wise all game.

By the way.

This is yet

another

three-rule usage.
Titus, Shiro, Foxbird.
Again, name the one who sticks out most.

Town: Fire, mastin, farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature, A50, Seraphim, NC, grapes, Seraphim
Null: Kraskaesque, KTS, Skybird, Random, TWIE, DGB, CoolDog, Klingon
Nullscum: Xkfyu, Snarky, Shiro, Foxbird
Scum: McMenno, Obi, Reasonably Rational

Town: Fire, mastin, farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature, A50, Seraphim, NC, grapes, Seraphim,

Kraskaesque

,
Null: KTS, Skybird, Random, TWIE, DGB,

Snarky

Nullscum: Shiro, Foxbird,

CoolDog

, Klingon
Scum: McMenno, Obi, Reasonably Rational,

Xkfyu

The infamous changed reads. The bolded are the changes. I really do think half town, half scum. (Coincidentally, the half moving up are my scumreads and the half which moved down are proven or assumed town.) As for the distribution: in the first, again: we have a town/nulltown list that has basically no possible scum aside from TFL.
The scumreads are all basically town, so that leaves scum in the nulls and nullscum.

The revised nulltown list makes a VERY noteworthy change: kraska moves up.
The Null list remains suspicious, and I ask you:

Do you honestly believe that his null and nullscum sections were without any scumreads?
If not, then who? Because I've got a fair idea of who *I* would pick.

[mastin2]

Obi/McMenno/RR
This should be quite obvious

Though I do admit: this has me

slightly

concerned.
It's not the more disguised variant (calling out three names in a wall), being rather blatantly out there, butstill: it is something I promise I'll look at.

Aha there is the fourth scum

I think this might be an indication there were four groupscum to start, by the way. So, minus SirCakez and Skybird, it'd be down to two if so. I mean, there'd definitely be that hope at least.

For what it's worth: if there are only four groupscum in the game, Shadow_step would not be one of them in all likelihood, because a 4p team with an effective goon and a traitor against ALL of our power? Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah, I don't think so. So! Five groupscum, S_S is possible scum, four groupscum, S_S is probably town. Also also, similar applies for kraska: if there were only three groupscum, then coordinating a vote on Titus would've been impossible. It takes four alive plus the dead SirCakez.

That's me throwing you a

really fucking massive bone

, Titus.

[mastin2]

You're ignoring a fucking guilty to throw a fit.

I'm not a blind idiot.

I will not take any guilty at absolute face value.

LEAST of all in a Varsoon game.

That's not throwing a fucking fit.

That's using some damn common sense and using caution to consider the possibilities not to mention the chance to read off of play.

I don't believe in a godfather for a Varsoon game. So had I gotten an innocent, I would have trusted it as 100% reliable, sure, we could have sheeped THAT. (My result was not "your target". It was, very specifically, "TheWayItEnds". So no busdrive or redirect possibility here.) If TWIE had tried to wiggle his way out, he could have tried denying it was a killing ability. (And in the process, become confscum.)

But he flat-out said even before McMenno went and told him, "I guess that's from a killing ability".
So now we have to think. Because guilties in Varsoon games, in contrast to innocents...are not always guilties.

And flat-out sheeping a guilty is just as moronic as flat-out refusing the guilty.

I'm not refusing the guilty.
I'm

postponing

it.

But you?
You're blindly sheeping it.

And I'm flat-out telling you I don't trust it right now. Given time, I might.
But you're refusing to give me that time.

[mastin2]

Farside, let me be devil's advocate for a second. Snarky did indicate he was trying to be less of a lurk sack. Is it possible he's trying too hard?
p-edit: I don't agree Snarky is "so town" for the record.

I ask you, Titus.
What do you make of this quote, in regards to farside's alignment, and in regards to SnarkySnowman's alignment?

'Cause I don't think this is scum talking to scum.
But it does look like scum talking about scum: "I'm not saying Snarky's town, and I'm not going to defend him, but here I am defending him and indirectly saying he's town". That's literally that post.

[mastin2]

Farside,
I'll vote Shiro with you. Let's see where this goes.
VOTE: Shiro

One, not scum interactions with farside, and two,

Shiro, I get that you think A50 is scum. What about other players? I'm reading through your ISO and you don't say much about other players in the game. Who are you town-reading?

...Not the way you treat a scumbuddy.

Near Town

RR – His interactions show me that he is trying to solve the game. Also the Hydra dissonance. I feel this shows that both heads are active and trying to solve the game.
TheFuzzylogic99 – Based on Math’s read since Math flipped town.
Almost50
Grapes

Null

Kraskaeaque
Xkfyu – I wanted to have a PT with him to better sort him. Part of why I am leaning scum on him is his claim he made in our PT. He’s also making no attempt to sort my alignment. I am not seeing anything in the thread that makes me think he’s town. But I have other input from Steven indicating that he is town. So I'm not sure which way to go here.

Almost Scum

Farside – I felt she was town in our PT. The things putting her here instead of the next level up is the stubbornness and game play like blowing up the Joy Ride and the weird claim. I’m not opposed to lynching her but would rather lynch from my scum pool right now.

Scum Pool

DGB – no attempts to figure the game out and weird claims/gambits.
TWIE – Haven’t seen much from him (if anything). I know this is the way that TWIE normally is, but by now I would expect to start seeing some insights into players.
Snarkysnowman

Still Processing

Shadow Step
Shiro

Not Chara

MagnaofIllusion

McMenno
Creature
Randomidget

Firebringer

I do think it interesting that her Near Town pile has the two names we know to be town as just undescribed, with the two names we don't having a description attached.

That being said: Where do you think Skybird grouped her scumbuddies? She has at least two, if not three. (Four would be seven scum in the game, six groupscum plus DGB. I am not entertaining that as a possibility.) Given the size of the "still processing" list, it's almost an assurance there'd be one in there...but I don't think it'd be two. Tell me, who is the scum in the still processing pile?

There's going to be at least one scum in the null through scum piles, with the main question being whether it's just one or if it's two. Personally, my bet is on two. I DON'T believe she would bus two scum. (Remember, she didn't know DGB was scum for sure!) So, between SnarkySnowman/TWIE/farside22, there is a maximum of one scum. I also think there should

be

one. No surprises on who I think it is.

If not, if you want to expand the pool...you add in kraskaesque and Xkfyu.

So tell me, Titus.

Do you think Skybird put two of her scumbuddies in her scum pile (include farside in there), especially when she was down one scumbuddy already?

Because I don't.

[mastin2]

no, Mastina you straight up sheep guilties unless given a strong reason to doubt.

And I'm the person the guilty is from, and I'm telling you I have reservations.
In any fucking game, that should be reason enough to qualify as "strong reason to doubt".

Read off the play, look at Farside.

I'm not reading farside from a distanced perspective.
I'm reading farside as a human being.
I'm getting in her head.

And I understand what she's doing as town.

I can't vocalize it, but motivation is my damn specialty as a player and I'm telling you I see it. Do you think I'm lying about seeing a coherent picture? Just because I can't find the right words for it doesn't mean it isn't there.

It's a win win, but as scum there's tonnes of motivation to avoid voting TWIE.

Do you know what there's tons of scum motivation to do in regards to TWIE?

Sheep a fucking guilty, that's what.
As scum, resisting a guilty does NOTHING but draw attention to yourself.
As scum, sheeping a guilty won't give you towncred, but it also is perfectly logical to do...and this applies

regardless of TWIE's alignment

.

If anything, that TWIE doesn't have more votes is proof that TWIE is town, because if TWIE were scum, then scum would know the guilty was legit and just hop on. With them knowing it's a false positive, there may be some hesitance. As in, not joining but not fighting against, hesitance.

Gee, wonder who's shown that attitude?

Thefuzzylogic99 (1): Shadow_Step
Not Voting (12): Kraskaeaque, Thefuzzylogic99, SnarkySnowman

Pretty sure most of these people have had the chance to check in since the guilty claim. I wonder why so few of them are voting TWIE?

[mastin2]

Skybird has the distinct knowledge of knowing all the Crystal Gems and she would have to townread most of them.

Citation needed.

Where was this stated? Skybird gained an alliance with Yume D1, not all the crystal gems, so she'd have to be told.
Where was she told?

If anything, if you wanna talk about townreading the gems, her list disproves that given who the crystal gems actually

are

. (Do

you

know the other two gems, Titus? Because Yume told me their identities.)

She doesn't have the room to townread all her buddies.

Yes. She needs to scumread a scumbuddy. This is a

necessity

.
The question is: does she need to scumread

both

?

I say no. So, one in null, one in scum, one in unsorted, fairly even distribution, is what makes the most logical sense.

[mastin2]

Because a) they are scum with TWIE

Doesn't matter.
If the guilty is legit, then scum bus TWIE.
Period.
Thinking otherwise is thinking in first-level play and you should ABSOLUTELY not be that naive, Titus.

People are lurking because SnarkySnowman is scum, you're defending him and actively shitting on my plan to prove TWIE's alignment.

Gee, look at what I did to your words.

Now tell me, is that statement any less valid?

...Exactly.

[mastin2]

My damn speciality is looking at groups and making coherent stories.

As a fellow storyteller.
Let me give you a critique:
You say you make coherent stories.

Sure aint showing them!

Do you have absolute proof of who the NK was night 1?

No, but we do have TWIE's claim that he made Skybird's result accurate, and that would indicate scum tried to kill grapes. Grapes was already a strong townread, so there's little incentive for scum to try and lie/clear grapes. Ergo, regardless of whether TWIE's town or scum, it is very likely his result on Skybird is accurate.

Also, what does getting confirmation grapes was the N1 nightkill actually tell us?

Do you have an answer for that?

[mastin2]

If you think Yume was screaming that Skybird was Connie, that she did not tell Skybird the gem information, that's insane.

If you know the gems as you say you do and hold that Skybird was going to townread them, then you're the insane one. Read her list again. Pay attention to the gems.

Skybird has 5 buddies (Cakez, DGB, doe, doe2 and doe3).

DGB does not count as a buddy because there was no confirmation she was scum.

Scumreading buddies but needing to sort is great for endgame when confirmed town won't shut up about lynching town.

Problem: what happens when you're called upon to follow through on your scumreads?

[mastin2]

If the guilty is accurate and scum cannot afford to lose the body, they 100% resist

Can't be more wrong there.

Scum, knowing the guilty is accurate, and knowing the source comes from

confirmed town

, will not resist.
Look at TWIE! The person the damn guilty is on! Did he deny it? No, not in the least. He said, basically immediately, "oh must be a gunsmith".
He quite literally went, "Why am I being lynched?" to "Guilty, huh? Must be gunsmith". He didn't ask who it was from first. He didn't deny it, saying, "must be wrong".

He flat-out said it was accurate

. THEN, and only THEN, did he ask who got it. It's right there in his iso: 8818 has him assume gunsmith. The LATER post, 8820, is him asking for the source.

If TWIE were scum, I'd expect it to be the other way around. And if he were scum, his first instinct would probably not be, "oh yeah that result is accurate, just wrong". If scum acted the way you said. And if TWIE were one of them. TWIE would be looking for an out. But he's made no effort to give himself one. (SnarkySnowman doesn't count, because SnarkySnowman's ability is a PROVEN ABILITY and therefore not something he is making up.) Quite the opposite! He's set very specific parameters.

I deal with what makes sense, is open and honest.

Apparently not.
Because you're not factoring in that scum are

inherently

bus-happy.

Tell me I'm wrong!
Tell me,

especially with the flips we have

, that the scum have not been bussing a lot.
Your talking's delayed my VCA to do so myself, but go do it on your own, and look me in the face, I'm daring you, to say to my face with that VCA, "The scum haven't been bus-happy".

But they have been.
And if TWIE were scum, there'd be nothing stopping them from being bus-happy again.

[mastin2]

Yes there was, the moment she claimed traitor.

And the scum wouldn't know for sure she actually was one. No more than the town would.

The gems were in still sorting.

Yes. Exactly. Still sorting. Not town.

Skybird did not know the crystal gems in all likelihood. (Which actually makes me feel much better about them actually.)

[mastin2]

I don't know what vote counts you're seeing but each and every scum lynch has been hard faught for with scum standing in the way.

Do tell.

Because VCA preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetty much shows otherwise.

It's DWTS right now (you actually made me miss the opener, not to mention, my dinner), so no proof. I didn't get Skybird's iso finished, yet alone Varsoon's. But when you've shut up, I've responded to everything, and DWTS is over, I'll show it.

[mastin2]

Generally, when a vote is placed all previous votes are removed.

This becomes relevant if, and only if, farside was aware of this fact.

Demonstrate knowledge that farside would be aware her previous vote would be removed, and you have a case.
Fail to demonstrate that farside had knowledge, and you have something that is null.
And, public knowledge and/or past V games don't count for this. Players can and will miss facts.

Pull quotes from farside's iso which show she knows her voting power would remove her previous vote, and you'll have me interested.
Otherwise, I'll just go with the lynch TWIE first plan which, yknow. Is what I promised.

[mastin2]

(But, be back later. Have a mish-mash challenge to lose. )

[mastin2]

I think fuzzy's town. I think kraska is mebbe scum.

Fuzzy is probably town, yes, but kraska is pretty much definitely scum. Sadly, not scum we're lynching today.

I did promise I would lynch TWIE today.

Then again, not sure I even have my vote, but whatevs.

Vote: TheWayItEnds

.
No harm in making the gesture.

[mastin2]

@Mastin, can you do me a favour and clarify your faction, because I am having an awful lot of doubt you are earthling. We know you are not crystal gem and after Peridot flip I.am extremely cautious that you are leftover

I'm mod-confirmed town.
I can even (somewhat) prove it beyond Yume's topic with me, where Yume had, repeatedly, time and time again, declared me as conftown.

I am obviously not a member of the crystal gem faction, so I'm not that third party.
I am obviously not scum, as per Yume.
So your options are, remnant I guess, or town.

And I have, repeatedly, told you I am town and was VERY loudly on record as saying this game had no third parties, soyeah.

I'm a corrupted gem, but still win with earth.

[mastin2]

@cerb...and everyone
i could maybe buy the "far is scum after yesterday's vote" train of thought if that voting ability was used on ANY OTHER TOWN but snarky
which isnt what happened. cerb you're saying she is scum who thinks her lynch is inevitable and so decided to make the best of her pm abilities to push thru mislynches before she dies
but i think thats a blatant misrepresentation of the gamestate yesterday. in fact i think everyone in the game was warming up to her, even titus was laying off and redirecting focus elsewhere
that she'd bulldoze over all of this just when it begins to look like her lynch is no longer a thing on the table, i find hard to believe.
not only that, but to bulldoze over people's newfound trust in her, to lynch SNARKY of all people? snarky the inevitable nonsensical mislynch mastin was working hard to make happen? is that really a risk worth taking here? her hypothetical scum team stands more to lose than gain here. you have to admit that

Much as I think kraska is scum, I agree with everything being said here: farside stands to gain nothing of note as scum pulling this stunt. It's literally suicidal. It also does, what? Take out one player who is getting lynched anyway? The scum also had no way of knowing that the stress would stay in Slice of Life, except unless they knew there was no method of increasing it prior to climax action resolution. So, they had no way of KNOWING that their kill on Titus would succeed. (Mind you, this does give minor evidence for kraska being scum and maybe a gem being a spy, but I acknowledge the unlikelihood of that and even hold the opinion there isn't one in the gems, so.)

[mastin2]

Does it matter at all, if she intentionally uses her abilities in such a way that using them will only kill town, as she did yesterday?

Yes.

Because you are quite literally suggesting a policy lynch.

Listen to the words you're saying here and tell me I'm wrong to say that is literally preaching policy on her.
"It doesn't matter what her alignment is, with how she used them she deserves to die". That's what you're saying here.

I believe I've made my stance on that rather abundantly clear.

[mastin2]

Welp, now that MoI has 100% outed you, Random, can you explain how you both thought gems were all town, but also had MoI as your top suspect out of creatures pool?

I can answer that.

Creature said that if one person from the pool was conftown, then the game was won.
randomidget was saying MoI was that person.

At this point, do people want me to out who Creature is? Because there's a damn good reason I've been defending him.

[mastin2]

Does it say on the top, You are aligned with the Town faction. Peridot also still won with town,doesnt mean she couldnt win with anyone else as well.

Too lazy to bring up my exact role PM wording.

But yes.

Town.
Nothing more, nothing less.
And that luchador thing didn't change that at all. Still town.

[mastin2]

Mastin: I'm sure I'll be lynched but do you think getting rid of the event helps?

The action of getting rid of the event neither harms nor helps at this moment.
If everyone has posted a vote and you/kraska are literally the only ones who can vote, there's something really important to be gained from that.
Further thoughts should wait until everyone has cast a vote.

And I mean, not claimed they can't vote.
Everyone has ACTUALLY cast a vote for proof.

[mastin2]

Spoiler:

HAVE NO VOTE:
RR
Shiro
grapes
Creature
fuzzylogic
randomidget
Almost50
MagnaofIllusion

HAVE POSTED BUT NOT VOTED:
Shadow_step

HAVE VOTES:
farside
kraska

WAIT FOR THE MOD (but probably not)
mastina (I submitted McMenno, so)

HAVEN'T POSTED/VOTED:
TheWayItEnds

[mastin2]

Scum are in TWIE/Step_Shadow/kraskaesque. kraska's 9297 is a change of tone in preparation to finally let a mislynch occur on farside. (whose play -AGAIN- is EXTREMELY anti-town and has indeed managed to push me over the limites).

Pretty much yeah.
But I've lost all energy to fight.

[mastin2]

Oh, and

Vote: TheWayItEnds

.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Creature

Creature is the Keep Beach City Weird player.

Does this change your analysis any?

[mastin2]

Not Chara's preference for lynch today is TWIE, Shiro and Creature in approximately that order.

Honestly the main reason I've been clearing Shiro is because I'm trusting Almost50 here.

[mastin2]

Why the hell didn't you say that before?? So the unflipped can still communicate with you until they are flipped? THAT sounds like a VERY GOOD reason to keep some players unflipped.

For what it's worth: MoI's not lying. Yume told me about this ability WAY back, on D1 I think. If not, definitely by D2.

[mastin2]

Hey mastin how many wins with town factions could share role pms in gistou?

Uh, all except the undead risen slaves, actually.
The individual undead (never seen), individual vampires (never seen), and individual nosferatu (which DID quote their role PMs!) all had the ability to share PMs.

[mastin2]

That's mainly directed at you mastin2.

I've made my stance clear on matters such as this before:
I do not make actions I regret, regardless of the outcome.

If I was going to remove my vote just because the lynch could happen, I wouldn't have cast it in the first place.
Admittedly, he is not a strong scumread. More circumstantially a scumread, off of his strategic posting ever since the result.
But I still maintain farside as town. I also maintain the gems as town.
Thus, my theoretical lynch pool does consist of Shadow_Step/Shiro/kraskaesque/TFL/Creature/TWIE.
I maintain a townread on TFL.
So that leaves S_S/Shiro/kraska/Creature/TWIE.

Creature's power has been known to be since the beginning of day one. (Read the message. Look at the playerlist's numbers. Titus + KTS/MoI + S_S = Creature's number.) I've been townreading it, but not to the point where I'd fight the lynch there. If you want to, go ahead, won't find me resisting. Probably wouldn't personally join, though that wouldn't stop you from getting a lynch and if push came to shove and the options were no lynch or Creature lynch, I'd lynch Creature.

Shadow_step I go back and forth on. Right now, he's not my top priority.

Shiro is someone I quite frankly wanted dead ages ago. It was other people mechanically claiming Shiro to be town that made me write Shiro off, but since that time, Shiro has gone from "major scumread" to "in POE pool but otherwise null". Not from anything Shiro's done, mind you. I just had the read shift to a natural default state of not caring.

TWIE is a useful lynch regardless of his alignment. It confirms a few facts if he's town. It is a scum lynch if he's scum. His attitude has done nothing to make me think he was town, and I do know he can do better. Being a lategame player is no excuse for...

this

.

My top lynch choice remains, and continues to be, kraskaesque. But I'm not going to fight for it. At all. I have zero interest in pursuing that losing battle. I don't have the energy for it anymore. kraskaesque has been my top scumread for days, but I've always settled elsewhere. And will continue to settle elsewhere.

Given this pool: I don't hold any reason to not vote.

[mastin2]

With all due respect, you already had it your way with Snarky and were proven wrong. Can you please let us have it someone else's way this time around, for the good sportsmanship spirit and all??

It is precisely because I am a good sportswoman that I am resisting the farside lynch.

If I were to display poor sportsmanship, I would vote farside out of spite, both at her actions...AND at RR/Titus. Because I'm that sure she's NOT flipping scum. And seeing the reactions of people TO her not flipping scum would be glorious. It'd feel so good to do, to get the toxic element cleared from the game once and for all, while also firmly planting my foot and saying, "I told you so."

But because I'm above poor sportsmanship, I'm NOT going to do that. I'm going to continue hunting for those who are scumbags by role, not play.

[mastin2]

One of the things Titus wanted most was for us to get you involved and to get you to shake up and re-evaluate.

The idea of re-evaluating is not something which Titus apparently knows about me.

If she did, she'd know there would never be a need to ask that of me. Ever. Because I do it more consistently than any other player. My brain is wired specifically in such a way that it's impossible for me to

not

consider the options. Considering you as scum. Considering farside as scum. Considering kraskaesque as town. The like. I do that without any hesitation, without any prompt, automatically.

I simply choose to share virtually none of it, because I go with my internal sense of probabilities versus possibilities. It was possible, for instance, McMenno was scum. My internal list of probabilities told me he was town. It is possible one of you/farside/Almost50 is scum. My internal list of probabilities paints a picture of town. It is possible kraskaesque is town and I definitely recognize this strongly especially given my lack of familiarity of kraskaesque. But I hold to the probability of kraskaesque being scum.

I don't share every thought I have. If I did, I would be rambling all day about every little thing and my input would be worthless, because my opinion would mean nothing. So I choose to share my stronger thoughts. And my stronger thoughts do change, in some areas. Plenty of my reads have shifted! It's just that it takes quite a lot to have the weaker thought shift to become the stronger thought.

As for getting me involved: I

have

been. But I've never been getting my way. Not since day two, and even then I'm not absolutely sure. (I'd have to go check my posts to see if Mathblade was my preferred option, or just the option I defaulted to. They were far from my only lynch candidate, though. That much I'm sure of.) DGB was a lynch I supported because she was probably a traitor (and she was!), but I didn't want to lynch her because I knew she wasn't likely groupscum. And SnarkySnowman? A scumread, sure, but a compromise lynch; he was my secondary option. I've encountered great deals of resistance, insistence on lynching players that I don't think would be the best to lynch, so you really get what you'd expect from that: a high degree of bitterness whenever I feel like I've been ignored and/or been out of the loop, which...I basically have been the entire game.

What good are you as conftown if you won't lead?

I have led. Just not in the directions you or Titus would prefer me to have. The results of that divided leadership are evident enough. I'm pretty sure this is one of the largest games in mafiascum history, if not THE largest. (We're coming up on 400 pages.) What do you think a lot of that has been? Aside from Titus-farside fighting, it's mostly Titus-mastina fighting.

You asked earlier what my order would be.
It would be, at this point: TWIE (for the info) > kraskaesque (for the read) > evaluate the first two from there to figure out who next.
I don't yet have figured out the full list: Where to go next if TWIE=town; kraska=scum, if TWIE=scum; kraska=town, if both=town, or if both=scum. I probably should, but I don't. It's a lot of work, and I'm not exactly sure how I'd go about tackling the info. I could tell you a few things, but in spite of interactions being something I'm reasonably good at, I can't tell you with enough precision everything.

If kraska = scum and/or TWIE = town, then you can effectively clear farside. You might argue TWIE-town doesn't mean farside is town, but that requires an incredible violation of occam's razor to work: DGB HYPOTHETICALLY aligning with a player who happens to be scum, and HYPOTHETICALLY they have some way of knowing the finer details of the Beachapalooza event where they HYPOTHETICALLY have the foresight to plan out what they are going to do a full fucking day phase ahead and then HYPOTHETICALLY they happen to have perfectly coordinated without even taking into account the new info Titus's confirmation provided, because DGB needs a HYPOTHETICAL way to communicate with her scumbuddies when BY HER ROLE PM--and also BY SIRCAKEZ'S ROLE PM--she and the scumteam could not communicate.

If your theory is something like farside didn't start as scum but became scum later: again, this is a stretch, because it requires that HYPOTHETICALLY farside was 3p with no town side whatsoever, and HYPOTHETICALLY joined at

this specific time

. Assumption after assumption after assumption is needed to justify this belief.

Ergo, if either TWIE flips town or kraska flips scum, farside is as far as I'm concerned 100% clear and I'd rather lynch

you

than her at that point. (Well, kraska flipping scum would clear you, so not then, butstill.)

And let's say neither happens. Let's say TWIE flips scum. Well, then! That means...we lynched a fucking scumbag. That's why TWIE is my preferred lynch today. If he's town, we 100% clear both farside and grapes. If he's scum, we don't, but hey we lynched scum so win anyway.

I'm honestly not sure what the scumteam's composition is. I have individual scumreads. I don't have anything tied together. Just a POE pool.

if we were to ally, you can't talk to us but we could talk to you?

Nope, there's no communication whatsoever. If there was any pro-town benefit to my alliance power, I would be using it more openly.

[mastin2]

What rational reason is there to arrive at the conclusion that Farside is town?

Aside from the Beachapalooza event? Which, by the way, should be evidence enough.

I have already explained this.

I see no scum motivation in farside's actions whatsoever.

I see motivation from farside's actions which make a ton of sense coming from the viewpoint of a player with her role and with her personality.
If farside is scum, that would require an

epic

level of manipulation on her part to maintain. Any crack where scum motive could show would instantly end her, yet I've seen none. Believe me! I've looked. But I don't see her doing what she has done as scum. All I see is circumstantial evidence which is more hearsay than actual proof of anything. "She did this, then scum did this, that can't be coincidence". That about sums up the case against farside.

But I'm sorry.
That's not something which will convince me.

A lot of the reasons for lynching farside are fearmongering. "What if". A lot of the reasons for lynching farside feel like policy. "She's proven a bad track record with these actions, who's to say she'll get any better?" A lot of the reasons for lynching farside feel like they are lynching a player for objectively bad play, ignoring subjectively whether that play makes more sense coming from town or from scum and the answer for me overwhelmingly is more sense from town.

And with all-due respect.
You basically just told me to reconsider my stance on the gems being town.
That's not exactly something which endears me to the idea of the farside lynch being benign.

[mastin2]

Why does that make you feel better about them?

Simple.
Skybird was scum.
She apparently did not know who the crystal gems were.
If she did not in fact know who the crystal gems were...
...Then the crystal gems could, by definition, not contain a scumbuddy.

[mastin2]

So basically town with an extra win condition?

I mean.

I had basically the exact same thing in my game, pragmatically speaking.
Sure, theoretically, the New Humanity Treaty wincon

could

produce a scumteam in the form of both the URS and the individual nosferatu, but in practice, their wincon was "eliminate the scum, with one of your own still alive". Virtually identical.

And the players who are crystal gems weren't in Gistou, to my knowledge. Unless they randomly thought to read that game and fake my game's wincon, they wouldn't have knowledge of it. Also, in spite of me having been inspired by Varsoon's moderation and being rather open about this fact, I don't think Varsoon himself read Gistou and even if he did this game was probably in development long before the conclusion (or maybe even conception) of Gistou so it's not like he could have copied me as a suggested fakeclaim for them. (I actually find it a bit humorous, in fact. By complete coincidence, he and I had basically the same idea.)

[mastin2]

Anyone else notice how the entire wagon on twie is people who would otherwise be lynched today (with the exception of mastin)?

I am aware.

I also don't care, in part because is that not valuable information in of itself to have if TWIE flips town? It confirms farside as town and tells rather a lot about both kraska and Creature, I feel.

[mastin2]

To be honest I am conflicted between my days old strong townread and what happened last day far.
Why you do this to me far

Really want Shiro dead, btw.

TWIE's play this game has been fairly atrocious, so there's a 50/50 chance on his alignment between town/scum. He's my first pick for a lynch.
kraska's play this game has been basically pure scumposting the entire time. The only thing keeping kraska from being pure scum is a combination of unfamiliarity with kraska's playstyle and mechanics reducing the probability of kraska being scum. So, about 75%.
Behind them, we get an order that is, approximately:
Shiro > Creature > Shadow_step > Thefuzzylogic.

The reason for this is simple: I haven't vocalized this until now, but the thought IMMEDIATELY crossed my mind that scum might have had an inside man in the Titus/Shiro/RR alliance, with me personally feeling RR is less likely. (Impossible, if kraska flips scum.) Then there's Shiro's absolute lack of contribution to the game. Shiro is, and has been, essentially prod-dodging ever since being "cleared". Maybe there's some behind-the-scenes work...but if so, then that in of itself is suspect, because again: it's something only select players can see. It's something that is easily manipulated. It's something that targets a specific player to make them think better of you. See also, SirCakez D1, or what I did this game. (There's a damn good reason I said me working in just the PT should've been a scumclaim!)

Creature has been a townread. I liked the usage of the Keep Beach City Weird power. I also have, at times, echoed Creature's thoughts pretty well, and yet, they were different enough that Creature was definitely not sheeping me. What I don't like is Creature's play this game phase, among other things, his way of insisting he's confirmed town. I'm not quite sure if he's scum or not, but I certainly wouldn't miss him at this point if he flipped town.

Shadow_step is similar: he basically claims his power confirms him as town. He has also been a townread, particularly with things such as his fight with players like kraskaesque. But with a change of tone in his posts, he's someone I can't confidently write off as town. He is, however, not a priority.

Thefuzzylogic is last on the list, because of a combination of play and mechanics. While I don't like the way he used his power, similar to farside, I do not think that the way he used it is indicative of scum. (This, by the way, is something I'd like to ask RR about: why do you think TFL's usage of his power is indicative of town, whereas farside's usage of her power isn't? Neither used it optimally. Both were objectively antitown plays to make. My stance is that they are both motivated by town mindsets and they simply thought they knew better, essentially. Yours is...somehow one town one scum.)

Furthermore, of them, TFL has been the slot most consistently actually contributing content. His content is

bad

, mind you--very easy to be faked by scum. VERY easy. There's a damn good reason he's in the POE lynch pool, after all. But it's still CONTENT. And furthermore, he's very upfront and honest about everything, not bothering to hide, not bothering to hold back. I can't say the same of any of the above. Additionally, I liked Seraphim's posts. That may have been way back on D1, but it holds true even now.

But this is individual player analysis. It does not take into account interactions, and would not take into account flips. Any combination of townflips to scumflips would change nothing about this order right now. Or in other words, my reads wouldn't change if proven wrong.

[mastin2]

So ask yourself – does Town who has an investigative role decide to not investigate a claimed scum read (Like, for instance, RR or Almost since Skybird was about to be killed by Xk) over someone they’d never mentioned at all?

Um, MoI.

That's exactly what I did.

I chose specifically to investigate TWIE, someone I was specifically avoiding mentioning, as to not give away my investigation choice.

[mastin2]

At this point, by the way, I feel I can give an actual readslist.
grapes
farside22
Almost50
MagnaofIllusion
randomidget
Reasonably Rational
TheFuzzylogic99
Shadow_Step
TheWayItEnds
Creature
Shiro
Kraskaeaque

More or less.
TWIE is a lesser scumread than Shiro, though he and Creature may or may not be in the right order. (They're pretty equal.) He's my top lynch candidate, but he's not my top scumread. See also: we get good info if he's town (clearing two players) and lynch scum if he's scum.

[mastin2]

Can you explain grapes, without assuming TWIE is town and thus the claim that skybirds action claim is guaranteed to be true is correct?
-Cerb

Well for a start you're asking for something that we're already going to know given I'm advocating a TWIE lynch.
I've also verbalized my belief that TWIE would not lie about this even if he were scum, that he was being truthful.
But aside from that.

grapes is town because he is obviously town.
Everything he's done has been town.

He was my strongest townread without the result. Which, mind you, is another reason why I think the result is truthful: grapes was already basically universally townread, so even if TWIE is scum, telling the town that grapes was nightkilled isn't going to change anyone's read on him.
Plus, there's the whole NotChara power thing, which I know MoI isn't lying about being able to communicate to Not Chara about, so it makes sense.

We know the scumteam did not successfully kill that night.
So we know their kill was missing.

There's only a finite number of possibilities for this. And the Not Chara protecting grapes passively provides a rather excellent one.

[mastin2]

the biggest thing I can't get around is how she handled ending the day yesterday.

And I can't understand, literally can't understand, what the big issue about it is.

farside had been scumreading SnarkySnowman since D1.
She had also been pressured to use her multivote.
She was sick of all the bullshit going on.
So she abused her power to pull through and do what she wanted to do.

Something which is not exactly scum motivation extreme. Rather the opposite.

the simplest explanation (invoking OR since you did first) is that Farside ensured he was around before she made her move and ended the day.

Yeah, that's not occam's razor.
"Farside wanted to end the day immediately, and make sure Varsoon was around such that the moment she cast her vote, the thread would be closed." That's what you're saying.
I like this for simple better: "Farside wanted to prove a point. She cast her votes. Varsoon was online, so he locked the thread. There is no relation between the two."

You're tying together events which don't tie together without sounding like a stretch.

There is no way to argue what she did was anything but scummy.

And I never have.
You seem to think I give a damn about scummy actions, though.
But I don't.
Most scummy actions come from town, not actual scum.

I've always held this belief and I always will. You don't look for scum by surface-level plays. You look for scum by looking at the drive behind the action. The action was scummy. The drive behind the scummy action was not scum. I told this to Titus. I continue to tell it to you. If you want to convince me that she is actually scum, show me how what she did had a clear scum objective and mindset.

And what you've done? "Farside did action A. This let scum do action B." That doesn't cut it for me.

So she effectively

lied to confirmed town

about it. Furthermore, Titus had claimed that her BP was contingent upon being allied, so Farside lied to Conftown in such a way that said Conftown would be vulnerable due to having no alliance the next night.

And you just, conclusively, proved farside was town. Know why?

By your own confession...farside not allying with Titus would leave Titus vulnerable

this night

.
But she was killed

last night

.
So, her action of not allying with Titus could not be because she wanted to leave Titus vulnerable.

then a scum event was triggered in which only people who were allied could vote.

You might note that my top two scumreads solve this problem nicely: say farside is town. What would the scum event triggering then mean to you?
To me, it points to kraska and Shiro more than any others.

It's sheer luck that someone could expend their role utility to both move stress and blow up the scum event.

You might note I don't exactly believe in luck.

There's enough that's objectively scummy and unexplainable about her behavior if I assume town!farside that I don't have to fight over stuff that cannot be explicitly tied to her actions.

There's plenty of things objectively scummy about farside. She's in the top-three of objectively scummy, along-side TWIE (a gunsmith guilty) and Creature. The problem is, objectively scummy plays don't mean shit. It's first-level thinking to assume so. If they did, this game would be SO much simpler than it actually is.

And literally everything Titus, and now you, have given for farside being scum relies on objectivity.

That has NEVER been me. And never will be. I reject so much of the idea of objective scum.

Use your setup mindset for a moment and tell me how you balance a game when nearly 1/3 of the slots can never be mislynched

AND

those slots are super powerful and have very strong protection.

Simple: V plagiarized from me.
But no, more seriously: Xkfyu didn't start with the gems, he joined them later. Furthermore, the gems as per Yume's word weren't 100% sure they were all aligned together. Yume mentioned multiple times fearing a traitor slot among them--we know that they apparently have each other's role PM info, but Varsoon presumably gave a disclaimer similar to the URS disclaimer I gave, in that he told them that the role PMs given could in fact be scum fakeclaims OF said role.

We also know that there are multiple measures countering their extreme strength, among them the very real possibility of a scum player learning everything the scum need to know in order to take them down. (That is, if Creature is scum.) Their extreme strength with a "shitty-survivor" wincon also makes sense (the URS were the strongest roles overall in Gistou), since if they lacked that strength, they would be unable to stand a chance. Furthermore, many of their abilities--while strong--have weaknesses built in, among them things such as Amethyst being a miller when I am also a miller.

It's like I said.

I actually find some great humor in V and I basically coming up with the exact same idea. (And honestly if it turns out that the crystal gems could indeed be a secret second scumteam given certain circumstances, I'll be ticked off. Because, if I developed a mechanic, and Varsoon developed that same mechanic in parallel to me, who is the more memorable moderator that is more likely to be remembered for said mechanic? I mean, I have a following, sure, but even *I* would vote for Varsoon between us in that regard. Thus, why I'd be pissed he'd get the credit instead of me. )

I mean, pretty much the main difference between the two is that the URS were investigation-powers-oriented, whereas the gems this game are survival-powers-oriented.

[mastin2]

Mastin knows our role.

No, I don't.
I know you have an ability which counts as a kill. Which is the reason I couldn't investigate you. (My top choice.)
I know your flavor.

That's it.

[mastin2]

We assume Mastin also knows.

Not really, no.
I'd have to check to be sure.
But the player Yume voiced concerns about, from memory, was Klingoncelt.

I'd have to go check the PT (and I'm running short on time) to confirm this though.

[mastin2]

Also, we've already outlined the scum motivation in doing what she did:forcing s series of mislynches rather easily.

This is news to me. Because I haven't seen that trail of thought. You've said series of mislynches. Okay. Who. You didn't say. And if so, where. I see nothing of the sort even close to materializing.

If farside KNOWS 1) that there is no chance she isn't lynched at or immediately prior to lylo, and 2) her power is not functional in LYLO...why wouldn't scum!farside force as many of those mislynches as possible, before she is lynched /her power turned off?

This is a fine notion in theory. But again. You say it. I don't see evidence of it.

twie/kraska/shiro
That's where I want the votes.

^Echo.

[mastin2]

The tl;dr of what I'm saying:
I'm quite dead serious, what RR is saying is how I pitch things as scum: with empty bravado. I use fluff words. I use big terms. I use buzzwords. I say things. I fearmonger. I write a narrative. I say they are doing this, this, and that. They back these claims up with objectively-bad plays that have been made.

But they don't actually give the heart and drive of the matter. They don't give sustenance. It's not something which appeals to me, because there's nothing in there but words as far as I'm concerned. A sort-of Trump-like rally: something meant to incite a reaction in a crowd who demands action for their grievances, but which has no solid footing. (Yes, I went there. Dealwithit.)

[mastin2]

You should know who we are and what our abilities are.

Well I don't. I know your character. I know what your event is. I know that you have a killing power, which was conveyed to me as being something incredibly weak. That's it.

Sometimes scum act scummy.

Yes, sometimes.
But the vast majority of scummy actions come from town.

Scummy actions, in of themselves, cannot be read.
You need to look deeper than surface-level play and take into consideration other factors. Who the player is. (Me making a surface-level scummy play is different from Titus making a surface-level scummy play is different from Thefuzzylogic making a surface-level scummy play is different from......) What the driving motivator behind their actions was. Does it fit into a plan, or does it not?

And your failure is that you've failed to connect the dots between "this is farside's plan" and "these are farside's actions". You've done those individually. But you haven't connected them. That's what I do, because it's what I'm good at, and yet I can't figure out a connection. I can't do it on my own, and even knowing what your logic is, "these are farside's actions" to "this is farside's plan", trying to do your work for you and fill the gap, create a line between the two,

I can't

, because it doesn't exist.

The two are entirely unconnected, and that's my point. If farside were scum, then the plan would have a clear tie to the actions. Yet the disconnect between farside's actions and what you say is her plan (which doesn't even make that much sense as a plan anyway!) means I quite literally can't see her as scum.

There's no foolproof objective evidence nor is there likely to be because Varsoon despises cops and mechanical guilties and wants people to PLAY the game.

And this is a very un-RR thing to say. From either head, though I'd be instantly lynching you if that were Cerb speaking. RR specializes in turning things V has made--which he makes in an attempt to force people to play the game--into things that CAN break the game mechanically. See also, the first Steven Universe game with your game-winning plan among other spots. You know it to be true.

So tell me. Why are you insisting now that there is no objective evidence? Why are you insisting on discarding the mechanical evidence which strongly indicates that farside is town? Yes it's not evidence based off of play, but it's evidence which should be near-foolproof, requiring an incredible stretch in logic.

To say that we haven't seriously pushed Farside just tells me you haven't been reading.

No, no!
Quite the opposite.
I've said you've done

plenty

of serious pushing on farside.

I'm calling the push an absolute pile of shit.

And no ... I won't just "dealwithit" that you just compared me to Donald Trump. (For the record: I would feel the same way if you compared me to Hillary Clinton).

Not taking that back, sorry.
It means nothing about you as a person.
It means everything about your play in this game.
This is the difference between calling you stupid, and calling your actions stupid. I'm doing the latter.

...For what it's worth, though: inherent to that statement is a comparison to my own scumgame so it's explicitly me saying nothing I wouldn't also say of myself. And on that subject, I could also compare

myself

to Hillary Clinton...and I have gone on record multiple times about my belief that she's even worse than Trump is. (I'm firmly in the camp that no matter which of them wins, we all lose.) But that's politics. Back to the game!

The one thing that makes me pause a little on Creature is that I can't think of any motivation that makes sense for the things he's said. I don't see what he could possibly be trying to gain.

Like this.
There are many words I would like to use for this.
But I'll keep it to a simple one: hypocrite.

You can't shit on me saying this for farside and then turn around to use it on Creature yourself.

[mastin2]

I'd also like to say: You asked me to play this game more, right? Well if you want me playing this game more, that's mutually exclusive to farside ever being on the lynch table for as long as I live.

[mastin2]

Also, SirCakez is a master busser, so wouldn't be surprised if he was pushing one of his team mates earlier.

*objective fact which is true about SirCakez's scumgame*

Town:

Fire

,

mastin

,

farside

,

Yume

Nulltown: Creature,

A50

, Seraphim (TheFuzzylogic99),

NC

,

grapes

, Seraphim (TheFuzzylogic99),

Kraskaesque

,
Null:

KTS (MagnaofIllusion)

,

Skybird

,

Random

, TWIE,

DGB

,

Snarky

Nullscum: Shiro, Foxbird (Shadow_step),

CoolDog (MathBlade)

,

Klingon

Scum:

McMenno

,

Obi

,

Reasonably Rational

,

Xkfyu

*analysis following this worldview which looks incredibly unfavorable to Creature and some other select players*

maybe some of the greens (non-bolded) are inaccurate.

*tries to justify this*

The statement SirCakez is a master busser is accurate.
This would have us looking at Shiro, Foxbird/Shadow_step, and TWIE.

Instead, Creature says to look at these names, elsewhere.

On that note:

I'm not exactly thrilled with any of the major wagons right now.

Farside never really read her as scum.
I think TWIE would be voting one of creature/farside aka his counterwagons if he was scum. Or he is scum with Creature and doesn't want to vote there cause there is a GS guilty on him and figures Creature is more likely to make it endgame than him.

I'll sheep MOI for now.

VOTE: Creature

Justsayin'.

Personally I doubt our scum trio happens to be TWIE-Creature-Shadow, or TWIE-Creature-Shiro, or TWIE-Shiro-Shadow (Shiro-Shadow-Creature is possible I suppose), but of the four I definitely think we'll find two scum.

[mastin2]

(For those paying attention, my scum pool is actually five names. kraska's the name which is placed in the above. I also have a reasonably consistent scumread on Shiro. It's mostly figuring out which--if any--of Creature/TWIE/Shadow is scum that I'm working on. The main reason for a TWIE lynch is because it's useful regardless of his alignment and it honestly doesn't matter whether he's town or scum because of that, but his flip would all the same be useful information to have available. Personally I'm more and more leaning back towards town, but all the same I'm still firm that his lynch isn't a bad idea.)

[mastin2]

I appreciate your attempt to walk back what you said to me, but no you weren't attacking my play. You directly compared me the person to Donald Trump the person.

Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.
Won't make it any more true.
I was very specific when I said what I said: I said that you were doing what I do as scum. That was me inherently tying the action to play, not person. (And as I said, was also me inherently comparing my scumgame to Trump, meaning again: nothing I said about you is something I wouldn't say of myself.)

I will never, ever call a player the scum of the earth.
I will very frequently call their play the scum of the earth.

If you can't accept that, then that's not on me.

RR can confirm that I had a scumread there as well from our Alliance

"RR can confirm..."
"Shiro can confirm..."
"RR can confirm..."
"Shiro can confirm..."

I'll be blunt. When we get that type of mutual "the other half of this private PT can confirm" going on.
It makes me think, "yep, we have scum in there alright".

What are people's thoughts on scum choosing to align with each other for Episode 1?

A mess of wifom, but overall thoughts: not impossible, but less likely than them allying with town. Allying with scum is something that could tie to them interactions-wise, and also limits their pool of information. By allying with town, scum players get to know more about the player they are allying with, not to mention, have a chance at manipulating said player. So, it's more beneficial and less risky to ally with town, but not out of the question to go for scum.

[mastin2]

I want to ally with Mastin. Iknow she is town and I trust her

This would be a risk, but I'm actually not opposed to the idea. Wouldn't exactly do much, but I'm willing.

Question is why does he claim an action he couldn't actually do as scum?

I did throw around the possibility of scum ability trumping town ability, and also the possibility of the nature of Creature's ability trumping the nature of Snarky's ability, but ultimately, I didn't come up with anything productive either way.

He could be town, he could be scum, it legitimately doesn't matter either way to me right now.

The question isn't whether he's town or scum.
The question at hand is whether we want to lynch him today or not.

I personally do not.

My issue is that it is clearly sub-optimal for scum to specifically choose to ally with each other (except 100% for the WIFOM) given the rules specifically state the Mafia have Daychat. My expectation is that scum would want to ally with anyone else for information gathering since they can already talk with each other.
I mean … I’m not going to predicate reads solely based on who allied Day 1 but it is another element towards “Not Partners” for Shiro vis-a-vie Skybird.

Did you mean Shadow here? Because Shadow's slot was the one who allied D1 with Skybird.

[mastin2]

I don't know I feel like I'd much rather lynch the ones who've ceased all gamesolving.
shiro/kraska/twie

That is more or less my lynch order.
TWIE > kraskaesque > Shiro is mine.
Further down the line, you get Creature > Shadow_step, for a combination of reasons.

I like kraska and Shiro for scum. Creature I don't feel as being scum, but that's a weak gut read and I recognize could be wrong.
Shadow_step is a POE scumread, in that there are plenty of good reasons for him to not be scum (especially if kraska is scum), but none of them are enough to remove him from the lynchpool altogether. Simply place him at the back of it, as unlikely yet not impossible scum.

[mastin2]

What's his scum strategy going into this? Bus cakes and then turn around based on some arbitrary reads or w/e?
BTW creature's a good scumhunter I think what's more likely that happens is he nailed him on having a shifty read progression on him (makes sense from a town pov because I and a lot of other people track others reads on myself as a means of reading people) but then we town heard on cakes a bit and creatures paranoia as town thinking that there's too much hype surrounding cakes (especially on day 1) and seeing cakes town up a smidge (and yea, not gonna act like cakes didn't make a decent post or two) makes him turn around; and go right to pushing other things.
Yea, the kraska hydra has made some pretty walls here and there. That doesn't make them town.

All valid.