TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Auro]

oh, Oreo

I hope this doesn't make you dislike me, I have a tendency to go hard at people I love outside the game

[Auro]

Reasoning wasn't strong enough to persist, and the game has progressed quite a lot in the meantime

[Auro]

My own reasoning for placing them at a townread.
No, sorry, talking to you isn't really changing my position on your slot.

What's going on through my head: "Hmmm, welllll, eff it, let's go"

[Auro]

flashwagon

lol

[Auro]

NGL i am a little tempted to join the infinity wagon

Join the dark side!

[Auro]

Infernal take but I think it's possible

Yeeeeeah doesn't look like much when you qualify it with "it's possible" where be the conviction

Whats the dark sides health care plan like?

We offer insurance against future elims

[Auro]

who do u exactly pay out to in the untimely event that i get yeeted?

I haven't thought that through yet

[Auro]

auro this medical plan sounds shady as fuck.

yeah well "DARK" side health plan what did you expect

[Auro]

I need Lilith to join the dark side.

[Auro]

Koba what do you think of "Super is bussing AL"

[Auro]

(Build heavy towncred -> bus weakest partner -> control future elims) that's the rationale X had suggested.

[Auro]

It has to be koba.

That wouuld make this game ICONIC

I wouldn't rule that out actually

If you think infinity is the weakest partner, who do you think is the third scum?

I feel like Infinity would be judged the weakest partner in every case for third scum...? Or do you think this would narrow it down to a specific subset

[Auro]

Amy: Not weak
Johnny: Slides by fine
Flopz: Well liked at the time

AL was already receiving some pushes at the time. If both other scum were in {Johnny/Flopz/AL} subset maybe she'd push Koba though. Hmm.

[Auro]

Auro all three of these people have to survive for 4 consecutive eliminations. I don't think ur thinking ur theory through.

Do you think that in a vacuum they would though?

[Auro]

Ur thinking super would just do this because......i don't even know.

Like hell this would be ballsy for me to do. And ur talking about Super here. Do you not understand her personality profile?

My understanding of her personality profile is that she would, actually

[Auro]

I mean, Super, honest answer: leave my allegation that you're specifically bussing AL, would you bus a partner D1 in a Flag setup?

[Auro]

Risky move but great payoff if successful. Remember that you require 4 miselims as scum anyway.
Btw, last year's Team Mafia WF had a D1 bus.

[Auro]

didn't the scum lose in that one though.

Dude... scum were

nearly

close to winning. Took me 1000 posts and staving off a ton of paranoia to take the win there~
I literally had to offer my own slot at one point for a slot that was pushing me the entire time on shitty reasons (which I townread), which Mena's posts reminded me of strongly

[Auro]

You got Flag setup twice in a row?!?!?!? I pity you.

I like it pure mountainous dayplay without any night role shit. And nightless is even better cuz can't be killed

[Auro]

holy hell that setup looks interesting

[Auro]

More townies but also Nightkills. I think TM2020 WF is a pretty great read

[Auro]

I hope ur talking about legends of hidden temple.

Yeah, now I want to play that
VOTE: Change setup to Legends of Hidden Temple

[Auro]

You better invite me... or else

[Auro]

♥

[Auro]

[Auro]

i don't put as much stock into it as you probably perceive me to, but it seemed like a reasonable possibility. I *think* Super replacing out is towny.

When I call someone "weak" I'm not going by whether they're elim'able in the moment - confident that Ampharos would be able to put in more effort. Also <not townread> isn't the criterion, it's <how doomed is their slot>.

[Auro]

sorta think it's a state you enter and then it's hard to get out of? especially if it's the outcome after you've posted significantly enough unlike a lurkslot

[Auro]

game quality increased by 90%

meh

[Auro]

VOTE: johnny

[Auro]

busy day and I'm kinda feeling ehhh I'll be back later today, sorry

[Auro]

lllllillllllith

[Auro]

I interpreted "beefy" to literally mean "lots of words".

[Auro]

Any spicy conspiracy theory?

Someone asked me why I voted Johnny -- just because I saw Fire and Lilith vote him -- kinda not feeling the game a lot right now. Fine with switching over to AL as well

[Auro]

Walk me through the differences between Super!town and Super!wolf, in terms of her specific towntells this game

Pedit: It was someone else then, sorry

[Auro]

Walk me through the differences between Super!town and Super!wolf, in terms of her specific towntells this game

This will be unnecessary.

[Auro]

Anything I say will be basically the equivalent of self-meta, given it's my own slot, but I can actually do this if needed. I mean I try not to rely on meta too much in general but I can break down my experiences and the way I have known she is a wolf in the past. Just lmk.

Sure, it'll be helpful. I read your post previously as that

Super

was an easy read, not you; but I simply think that it may be a waste of time rather than just scumhunting given you're a self-claimed "ez" read

[Auro]

@auro do you have nothing else to say about koba slot? I was kind of hoping for more of a response than “beefy just means lots of words”

I don't think their lack of response to you means anything. I have Koba at above null. X: "that's Koba" regarding his play, and we believe he'd take thread control as scum: instead he's been sitting on Super and Mena tunnels for a large part of the game

[Auro]

They***

[Auro]

I’ve been told by my team that this is p much how he plays as town

Can you ask your sources how that differs from his scumplay?

[Auro]

Feel like I'd rather elim Chennis than AL

[Auro]

VOTE: Autumn Leaves

[Auro]

Are we forbidden from talking about replacements in TM?

Primary reasoning is that I don't have the drive to push through, secondary is that I think AL has +scum equity because Super!slot has +town equity for reasons, third is that Chen-AL do seem to have some partner equity.

[Auro]

Are we forbidden from talking about replacements in TM?

Generally speaking, it's theoretically optimal for a team needing a town replacement to find someone extremely easy to read~

[Auro]

It's somewhat of a lazy take, but I feel like Chen's been trying to divert from the AL elim - pushes on multiple slots but no real conviction.

[Auro]

Interesting, AL: you'd be willing to vote Chen?

[Auro]

I think that viewing super’s reaction through somewhat of a nancy lens makes her response understandable too

The interesting part was that Super's own reaction was fine ("you better not make enemies with me *wink wink* let's converse later") but her

team

then scumread AL very strongly, which she then began to believe as well.

[Auro]

That was a major part of my push on Super , however, you'll find my updated thoughts on the slot on the previous page.

[Auro]

Flopz and maybe Johnny need prods?

[Auro]

Are we forbidden from talking about replacements in TM?

Primary reasoning is that I don't have the drive to push through, secondary is that I think AL has +scum equity because Super!slot has +town equity for reasons, third is that Chen-AL do seem to have some partner equity.

Are we forbidden from talking about replacements in TM?

Generally speaking, it's theoretically optimal for a team needing a town replacement to find someone extremely easy to read~

[Auro]

he felt overly aggressive to the point of being mean-spirited. She also TRed him when he started being toxic,

What's the difference between toxicity and "overly aggressive to the point of being mean-spirited"? Or am I misunderstanding something?

[Auro]

I think you can see a hint of what her eventual reaction will be in 1333, I agree it wasn’t great that she didn’t say her team worked her up so much, but I think her reaction would have been similar anyway. Just maybe not so aggressive.

You're evaluating her team's perspective from what you assume Super's personal Nancy-esque response would be though, isn't that inaccurate?

[Auro]

I think her team’s response probably got her more emotional about it but I don’t know/think if that really changed what her reaction would have been like. Are you suggesting that she faked an emotional response and pinning it on her teammates?

Her reaction independent of that would have been to just carry a conversation with AL digging into it, while maybe just expressing a similar dislike, no?

I won't say she faked emotion, it's totally possible to have the same emotion if you think you're unfairly (or for "bad reasons") being read as scum even if you're scum. I got the feeling that her team *told* her to respond aggressively and attack AL in that way, post which she did.

I also voted her, expressed a strong scumread on her and pushed her - have you read her general response to that? What would you make of it?

[Auro]

Are your questions because you think super is being scummy and are trying to convince me of that or because you’re trying to sort me?

Latter. I think I have better reasons to believe town!Super now.

Joqiza mentioned he's an easy to read player, and I believe that. I think it's optimal for a hypothetical TM team to recruit someone easy to read to replace a town slot.

[Auro]

Hello, Math.

[Auro]

i mean... yes? is that a problem?

pretty much. ur asking both of us to waste time on something that won't change either of our minds. So why should we bother.

It would help her read you better, no?

[Auro]

For lilith my internal cadence doesn't matter. She will not townread me for that.

Ah nvm

[Auro]

Idk you guys seem to think blocs are set in stone. In my head they're always open to re-evaluation based on flips; and having a divided town is highly beneficial for scum due to their proportion and split votes.

[Auro]

And that's okay, as they're going to continue to be under scrutiny anyway. Town agreeing and aligning while scum try to slink into the bloc is better than town disagreeing and scum chilling out doing nothing.

[Auro]

if ur going to continue revaluating everyone in the townblock it questions the necessity of the block to begin with.

Unified voting and short-term trust.

[Auro]

Also I’m not sure if I’m townreading auro anymore

Kinda interesting to see myself in everyone's "cool with elim" list, lol, I'm curious about your own reasoning.

[Auro]

Well how's that working out so far Mr Fire

[Auro]

VOTE: Firebringer

Okay then. If you won’t work with town you’re inherently against it. I normally do not care for townblocks myself but here it is extremely important and one of the best weapons we have against scum.

?? You're also scumreading AL and there's a wagon there. I know you mentioned a Fire scumread but this feels like policy reasoning to justify your vote.

[Auro]

Well obviously i have very little CHARISMA mr AURO

I wasn't snarking at you personally! There has been weirdly lesser unity from town in general this game.

[Auro]

Basically it struck me that I couldn’t really remember anything you’d done all game? Other than ask questions, but I don’t really remember you ever pushing your own ideas as opposed to sheeping things

Yeah that's fair and I think someone else had the same critique as well.

I got burnt from Mafia playing super aggressively and obsessively and that was the reason I took a long break. It's stressful and I want to have fun. >.> Trying to take it more chill now. I think I'm doing a great job avoiding refreshing MS *all day*

[Auro]

id rather see u lead this game here but for some reason people are divided on u

They won't be when I get two scum elim'd 8)

Meanwhile let's talk about Menalque. Do you really believe he'd make a "fine, elim me or Super then trust the other" type deal as scum?

[Auro]

Okay that all makes a lot of sense but is not that reassuring bc I have no way of knowing if you’re the type of player who if they rolled scum would stick to their initial plan to just be more chill or if you’d feel more pressure to match your old meta and would turn it on more

I don't know either , but I think this game would've been perfect to adopt a strong town!leader positioning in as scum from all the chaos.

[Auro]

I don't think he meant it to begin with. So theres that?

Really? Because I felt those posts were pretty genuine and that bumped up Mena to a townread for me: and he was a scumspected slot, what do you think he'd have done if there was a wagon on him?

(Drats, should've voted him then lol)

[Auro]

if you’re the type of player who if they rolled scum would stick to their initial plan to just be more chill or if you’d feel more pressure to match your old meta and would turn it on more

Btw either way I think it'll induce the same amount of paranoia

[Auro]

How do you guys feel about voting Chen instead?

[Auro]

His actions are pretty clearly suited to get him to live. I don't believe the posts about him being fine with getting yeeted in order to prove X or Y is scum or town.

The way I see it it's very difficult to back out and retaliate against people if they're wagoning you after *you* propose "elim me then trust X elim Y". I made a similar proposition last year in WF as well.

[Auro]

Wouldn't that just mean its a good manipulation tactic.

It's certainly manipulative. But town can be manipulative. This is the sorta thing that's OK for town to make -- as their own lim is not really that bad for town -- but risky for scum to make (as if people do call the bluff and start wagoning you, on D1 when there's no solid leads anyway, there's no backing out).

And the payoff is... what... A miselim on Autumn Leaves? That sounds like a terrible decision for scum to make.

[Auro]

Also when I did that last year it wasn't from a place of manipulation. It was from a place of desperation, because I was convinced Dongempire was town and Gobble was scum, but no one except Dannfloor would listen to me and everyone was paranoia'ing the hell out of me. So I asked people to promise to lim Gobble after seeing me flip green.

[Auro]

And Mena's scumrange from what I understand is quite good, why'd he have to resort to a tunnel to account for "bad reasoning" elsewhere?

[Auro]

Where art thou o Bringer of Fire?

[Auro]

I'm obviously trying to change Fire's mind (or - if I'm wrong about my arguments, change mine). There's no reason to disengage just because someone days they're not changing their mind.

[Auro]

Where are you at with reads right now? I feel like there's a lot more productive you could be doing right now, like figuring out or

pushing towards your preferred elim

. This engagement almost feels like busy work. Though if you really think it's worth arguing with someone who's being openly stubborn, I guess I just disagree with you?

Re: bolded, read my posts from the last page or two again.

Oh yes, trying to work with a player who expressed he can work with me is

such

a waste of time and besides that, I'm engaging with everyone currently active?? I'm not seeing what you expect me to be doing - go "aha,

these

are my preferred elims" and then launch another tunnel? As opposed to working with people and aligning with them?

[Auro]

There's

so much more value

in unifying town as opposed to individually just pushing your pet elimination and trying to out-shout the rest.

[Auro]

My take on these kind of deals isn't that it really means anything wrt alignment (I just wish ppl would stop doing it, to be honest), because I don't think it's really a meaningful proposition regardless of alignment. The way I see it, such a deal is either disingenuous or serious - and I can't actually decide which is worse.

P(Scum|disingenuous) is high.
P(Town|Serious) is high.

In the universe where you make such a proposition, there's a reasonable chance people just accept it given the prior scumreads present on the slot. Whether it's disingenuous or transparent becomes clear when people actually take it up - thus, while it independently is a "bad" thing, it means that it more often comes from town unless there's a massive payoff to it.

Ehh I was feeling uninvested with Super repping out but I think I'm getting back into it now.

There's

so much more value

in unifying town as opposed to individually just pushing your pet elimination and trying to out-shout the rest.

Let's try not using buzzwords like "unify town" and actually assess the results. I feel like what you're proposing here would do that - let the loudest players intimidate everyone else into submission

And if 4+ townread players are able to align their reads and generate meaningful wagons I wouldn't be as bothered that they would "intimidating everyone else into submission", I'd much rather prefer that to everyone just voting wherever, "compromising" on some read at the end of the day and achieving nothing of substance.

[Auro]

And that's what concerns me; it isn't a good proposition

I don't disagree that it's a "bad" proposition in that it's unhealthy, just that it's a solid reason to tr the slot

I think they partially do? Super!slot, Lilith for starters

[Auro]

This was a good response

And what you really mean was that it was a competent response that didn't address what you actually felt, didn't you?
(I kid)

[Auro]

Also I think Mena and Fire could be a part of that too

Btw Mena on re-reading it actually feels like a bit of a disingenuous attack that I'm being sheepy, considering you *want* people to join the AL wagon...? Like I was pushing Super at the time and you accused me of inaction, too.

[Auro]

Eurgh all the quoting makes it unpleasant to read.

[Auro]

You don’t have a reliable “good at maths” kid

*Raises hand* Just let me

integrate

into the town block.

[Auro]

I would obviously prefer that order, but does anyone in principle disagree that the best 3 slots to flip until scum!hit are infinity/math/me ?

I'd still rather kill Chennisden first. I'm not super comfortable with decision trees just yet, we've not had any real tension from wagons yet.

[Auro]

You mean in terms of competing wagons? I kind of doubt scum would want to create competing wagons D1 or D2 unless they can split their votes to make it two competing town wagons

No. Scum aversion to bussing in flag setups means you can see if people would really commit to voting someone when there's a real wagon on them. Without that you can expect a ton of non-commital posturing

[Auro]

Btw if I'm scum do I really take the time to actually try and align everyone w/ influence against me

I think that's a really simple question to answer

When I'm scum one of my biggest priorities is not to die and when I'm town it's much lower on the list of things I care about

I think sorting me w/ that mindset will make it a lot easier.

In a large game? Maybe.
In a nightless flag game? It's not just your survival that matters.

[Auro]

Spicy!

[Auro]

It seems like everyone wants to eliminate Johnny yet no one is willing to actually put forward the votes

+1 loving this.

Are you sure about that? because the lack of pickup on Johnny was just because no one showed initiative, unlike in the case of AL. We should definitely elim AL D2 and then hunt off the Johnny wagon for the other scum.

[Auro]

So you’re thinking AL and Johnny are scum together? What makes you say that?

No, I think Johnny is a counterwagon to AL and will flip town.

I meant the difference was that there wasn't

resistance

to vote Johnny as there seems to have been for AL: people had him in their lim lists but there wasn't really an

explicit

unwillingness to put forward the votes. The flashwagoning here demonstrates that; contrast to AL who has been pushed a lot this entire game and never even got to L-2 (I think).

[Auro]

do u think im scum? Cause ive been the biggest person against autumn wagon and i don't see who else is scum trying to ensure it doesn't happen?
maybe chennisden but who else?

I don't think they need to be explicitly loud voices, I think I'd go Chen then {Lilith/you} if game doesn't end.

[Auro]

has no one pointed out the obvious at this point that almost assuredly for johnny to be scum right now he almost has to be assuredly be bussed.

That'd be hilarious considering TM2020 WF also had a D1 bus job

[Auro]

auro r u plotting to anime betray me?

I won't hesitate in the unfortunate case that I need to :$ who would you suspect in Johnny!town -> AL!scum -> Chennisden!town universe?

[Auro]

Oh shoot I keep forgetting about Flopz' existence

[Auro]

enjoy, see ya!

[Auro]

Wait. Johnny, before you go I'd like to hear if Mastina kept up with the game and had any thoughts~

[Auro]

Chen's individually scummier than AL, but Chen's actions have made sense as an AL partner, don't wagon movements show AL as the better elim though Flopz? (Refer previous arguments this page re: resistance, etc) From that alone I feel AL elim should precede Chennis.

[Auro]

Me? Yeah.

[Auro]

You're fine with Johnny at lim-1 with double intent?

[Auro]

Comfortable presence on Johnny wagon while AL vote needs consideration -> AL partner equity.

[Auro]

idk Johnny kinda has a LHF vibe rn

Such a slot is better gone earlier than later, though, no? I'm not really expecting Johnny to swoop in and town it up [and that's okay, have fun with the baby Johnny ]

[Auro]

people just don't think Infinity is scum

Do we have a list of people who have expressed townreads on AL? There's you, Fire... Chennis? Who else?

[Auro]

Comfortable presence on Johnny wagon while AL vote needs consideration -> AL partner equity.

Hmmmm, or people just don't think Infinity is scum but basically nobody has positive reads on Johnny so it's a lot easier but I can see where you're coming from

Quoted

[Auro]

VOTE: autumn leaves

there

I don’t even particularly support a johnny elim. Does this satisfy your “scum won’t put their vote blah blah blah” expectations?

probably not because you’re going to argue that this is just for show, am I right?

Arguing that is lame, I'll just say "hmm, interesting"

[Auro]

I'll try my hand at limericks,
but how do I make rhymes?
I'm not great at making them
As you can see from this post.

[Auro]

back to game-related content: I think auro has decent chance of being scum regardless of what infinity flips

Was that because I said I'd be considering eliminating you post Autumn/Chennis?

[Auro]

Re: Math slot - I'd like to hear if Nancy is following the game.

[Auro]

Incorrect. This wasn't a random bout of paranoia, it was evaluation of who I'd given confirmed flip information. I stated a "townread for now" on you.

[Auro]

why are you talking about partner equity if you think i’m town

where have you stated that you’re townreading me? your interactions around me have consisted of trying to discredit townreads on me and now saying I have partner equity for doing something that’s consistent with what I’ve done all game.

do you have reasons to townread johnny?

... someone asked me "what if AL!scum Johnny!town Chennis!town", to answer the question I'd have to think about partner equity to AL, no?
And nope.

[Auro]

No, I think Johnny is a counterwagon to AL and will flip town.

do u think im scum? Cause ive been the biggest person against autumn wagon and i don't see who else is scum trying to ensure it doesn't happen?
maybe chennisden but who else?

do u think im scum? Cause ive been the biggest person against autumn wagon and i don't see who else is scum trying to ensure it doesn't happen?
maybe chennisden but who else?

I don't think they need to be explicitly loud voices, I think I'd go Chen then {Lilith/you} if game doesn't end.

It was a response to Fire's post. Someone asked for elaboration on this, and I answered.

[Auro]

Auro what do you think of fb again?

By play, townread -> vibing with him, plus his defusing of unhealthy tension in the game. Also I read his mild AtE regarding the pointlessness of talking to Lilith towny.

[Auro]

I’m also not sure it’s exactly a bloc because of you/auro, fb/me, my diminished but still somewhat present auro paranoia

You're always gonna have pauronoia
I don't think fb or I matter: townblocs from the perspective of "let's just lim everyone else" are theory bad as you always have better information with flips, I think you/Joqiza/Lilith should just make an extra effort at aligning with each other.

[Auro]

I agree that townblocs that don’t get re-examined are bad. I also think that townblocs that are overly forced are bad, which is why I don’t think this is a townbloc exactly nor do I really wanna make it one (I would say a townbloc is where basically all the TRs are mutual). But I think I’d like to have a pool of players that I don’t want to elim on D1 or 2 even if I’ll re-evaluate on D3 if no scum flips by then, and I’d like to try to align votes as much as possible within that. Me/lili/joqiza aligning would be good; having 4 or 5 votes would be even better.

Yeah this is exactly what I'm saying.

[Auro]

Yeah I was trying to get you two to align earlier in the game nice that it's beginning to happen.

[Auro]

You and FB

[Auro]

This is more for funsies than to demonstrate any point but joqiza, if you could sort people this game purely by charisma (independent of alignment) how would it look like?

[Auro]

That doesn’t seem like a super helpful question, auro

This is more for funsies

[Auro]

Oh, sorry, I wasn't actually expecting a ranked list. Also, I didn't think "low charisma" was offensive, apologies if it is so.

[Auro]

I think alignment-independent personality reads are somewhat relevant in forming alignment reads and the scenarios where <charismatic but can't get what you want> versus <charismatic and things are going well> are interesting to look at, but perhaps I should shut up about that now

Firebringer should be higher, he does influence me. We should talk, Firebringer

[Auro]

I didn't mean your assessment of it was wrong, I meant I think Fire should have more influence than he currently is.

I do agree this is an interesting thing but feel like the gamestate isn’t at a point where it’s clutch enough that it’s worth the risk of making things unpleasant again

It's pretty unimportant and yes, that is why I said it's best I shut up about it

[Auro]

Why do you think him having more influence would be good?

Mutual townread, mutual belief of working well together, and I respect his reads.

[Auro]

Also it's better if all those slots develop higher influence anyway, as that would correct for a deepwolf-dominated game.

[Auro]

I thought you were TRing me auro?

Yes? I respect Fire's reads, doesn't mean I have to agree with them. I'm trying to convince him against his read on you.

[Auro]

Consider that there's a significant component of personal influence and also that it is unattached to that specific read.

[Auro]

Is anybody wanting to know anything?

Mastina reads if she's had a chance to read up.
Would you be able to catch up and form reads?

[Auro]

What consequences?

[Auro]

Fire

[Auro]

Won't be active for the next two days~

[Auro]

It was my impression that DkKoba's usual towngame fell into (2), and also that his aggression this game was skewed by the presence of Super.

[Auro]

Hello Fumuki. We have played before, right...?

[Auro]

Lilith, how come you're not pushing me hard right now? After saying I've a decent chance to be scum

[Auro]

In a world where Johnny is town it's possible he's scum pushing me to set me up after Johnny flips town, because I think it'd be pretty easy to do so

Oh this makes sense, he just avoided the Johnny wagon and placed a vanity vote on you.

VOTE: Flopz

[Auro]

because I thought you made that comment as a response to me not wanting to join the infinity wagon and not as a hypothetical response?

Ah OK, I was assuming that there was more to it and that the exchange was just a tipping point.

[Auro]

I remember in that game (Doubles Mafia) we had a chat about dedication, didn't we Fumuki

[Auro]

As scum I legit turn off my brain the more the game goes on, because most of the effort has been put into early game, late-game mostly consist of parroting the same stances and playing around the blocks that form.

Only my opinion though, I think most people think the opposite.

Totes agree.

[Auro]

I mean obviously we’re all thinking about it because we were in the game with koba, but I don’t really care for math’s posts either. maybe playstyle thing but he spends so much time arguing about things that don’t help anyone sort anyone

Have you tried to engage him?

[Auro]

I will vote Johnny or Autumn today I'm not voting outside of those two.

I currently think Flopz is the slimiest.

[Auro]

They’re one of the, if not the, most arrogant players on site imo, and the fact they do this sort of shit every game bc they feel a need to try and be big brain or just to mix things up

My read was an overblown ego issue resulting from Super!paranoia and her positioning in game.

[Auro]

Shirou, what's your impression of my slot?

[Auro]

My bet's that Shirou will scumread me, or at least not townread me

[Auro]

I disliked you trying to play around her overall.

Huh, that was an unexpected reason. And by "playing around her" you mean what, exactly?

[Auro]

Flopz

Ok my tr on flopz is like entirely evaporated now

M U R D E R I Z E

[Auro]

Wheeeeeeere's JOHNNY

[Auro]

Interesting. Okay.

[Auro]

Hot take: I also am suspecting scum!Shirou.

[Auro]

Which means I'll have to organize my big-picture thoughts.

[Auro]

I think he's town but I also think he would roll me as scum

Which is also his own take on Lilith

[Auro]

The best gimmick alt to me up to this day was one where they talked about reads as if they were stocks.

Every post of them brought me a smile, I don't remember the name of the alt though.

"Wagonomics"?

[Auro]

I offered logic for the same.

[Auro]

I don't see how I was avoiding the wagon

When AL and Johnny were competing wagons you avoided placing a vote on either: sure you talked about it, but overall you still avoided that.

If it's of any interest, I'm also allying with Autumn Leaves in a way.

My argument was that even though I found Chen individually scummier I'd rather have AL precede it.

Would you be willing to vote Johnny now?

[Auro]

you leading this wagon makes me wary that Johnny is in fact town

Okay I just saw this

[Auro]

And I'm scummier than your prevously most scummy slot because? And what's your view on Chenn now then?

Re-evaluation of your pop-in and your positions around Johnny/AL, and also nothing to particularly negate my previous reasons for pushing you.

Chen read was stale and he's not doing what I thought he was and should be doing as scum earlier in the game (poking shade and pushing at random points to divert from an elim outside it, at the time I thought AL specifically). He's neutral now to me.

[Auro]

No because it's led by my biggest scumread

Are you sure Chen's "leading" it? Sure he was the first vote but I don't certainly wouldn't say he's leading that wagon...

Pedit: yes, you talked about it, but I'm evaluating the lack of vote either way by itself

[Auro]

Xtoxm stopped keeping up with the game a while ago

[Auro]

What's your take on Shirou?

[Auro]

You want the hammer, Menalque?

[Auro]

But lili can have it here, I wasn’t a main pusher of johnny so I don’t feel I deserve it

VOTE: johnny

Damnit Mena, I was gonna say I wanted both of you to battle for the hammer vote

[Auro]

Sure but then hammer

This day has already almost gone 150 pages and we were outposting the normal before the incident, and we have 30 more pages than the large theme

It's very impressive seeing people replace in and read the entire game btw

[Auro]

Fwiw I wouldn't read a game I repped into either, really

[Auro]

okay i feel like being petty right now, one of your major set of actions this game has been to try to prevent townblocing of all the loud people and scumreading all the lhf... but your readslist is basically doing what you said we shouldn’t

That's a reason I lost my scumread on him actually, all that posturing against townblocking would need to have a payoff to be beneficial, otherwise just makes it harder for him to avoid being pushed

[Auro]

I'm off to sleep cya guys!

[Auro]

I expected Johnny to flip town, the scumflip makes this a bit boring for me, actually

[Auro]

I think I'd prefer my death earlier rather than in LyLo, but in turn I'd ask for Lilith to be lim'd before Autumn Leaves if it comes down to it later.

[Auro]

but he soon parked his vote on Autumn.

I disagree with this? I shifted my vote to Chen and Flopz and to you, too and I also was gonna vote Johnny when Mena said "I'm bored let's kill him", I recalled Mena wanted the hammer and mentioned that, then he voted offering the hammer to Lilith (I didn't realize you had unvoted at the time).

[Auro]

ok legit please describe how I could be scum, you’ve just been trying to discredit townreads on me for most of this game and have put like 0 effort into solving me???

I didn't put 0 effort into solving you, and my method of solving your slot is not wholly dependent on personal engagement with you - rather how your play progresses through the game. Your focus has been more on the townblocking rather than direct engagement with suspects, and your comfort with killing Johnny and ending the day I find suspect. If I'm elim'd and one of Math/AL is elim'd it's a guarantee Johnny was bussed, and I feel like your actions towards Johnny are the most likely from that PoV.

[Auro]

I think it's a waste of time/effort to engage any of you, especially you Auro since you're my strongest SR.

Sure just don't forget to read my posts tomorrow

[Auro]

Have you considered the fact that maybe the unique player that seems to be shading/suspecting you, out of many that town read you, also share the most non-majority alignment along with their opinions?

Curious how well this particular scumhunting technique works out in games, lol

[Auro]

I feel like both Autumn and Flopz would have rather had their presence on the Johnny wagon given Johnny going down was an eventuality anyway?

[Auro]

If Flopz was scum was he really thinking he could diverge off a Johnny wagon onto Chennis...?

[Auro]

@shirou

back to game-related content: I think auro has decent chance of being scum regardless of what infinity flips

Also: This is dishonest. 3276 was based off a misunderstanding of what one of my posts was responding to, and she later walked back on that after I pointed it out.
Shirou's own argument for scum!Auro from town!Lilith's pov was that I'm uniquely attacking her. Having a momentary scumread of me for incorrect/discarded rationale is not supportive of having held Shirou's belief previously.

[Auro]

The impression I got was that Autumn and Johnny voted each other, than Flopz said he thought it was TvT and tried to move the votes off them to chen. I mean Flopz didn't try very hard, but I feel like if I were mafia and my partner was Johnny I wouldn't be very motivated, lol.

I guess if Autumn were gonna go ahead and bus it does make more sense to have both votes on the wagon, so that's a decent point and something to think about.

Exactly re: Flopz not trying very hard - it was a pretty feeble attempt if that was the intention, there's *much* higher payoff just being a presence on Johnny!wagon especially when it means one of the "townblock" would be off of it.

Yeah maybe you won't be motivated, but the only strategic move left would be to bus - unless you're sure you can deflect off Johnny, which would have meant a much stronger attempt.

[Auro]

i think his vote on flopz there at a time when johnny was being run up was probably because he was hoping there'd be a chance the wagon would move to flopz instead of johnny

Well, yes, I was not really fond of a Johnny elim felt very meh and bandwagon-y to me.

[Auro]

if we are mistaken about AL by any chance, we lose our way to auto town win as I detailed early.

People should consider that this^ is likelier than they think.

[Auro]

yeah because you didnt want CHENNIS catching your PARTNER

Again, for funsies' sake, in that hypothetical who would I prefer catching my partner Johnny?

[Auro]

Please don't consider what someone with a literal 50% chance of being, in your perspective of scum!AL, the off-wagon partner, has to say.

And when the same person flips town in 50% of future universes, would you blame them for not playing the game while actively having asked no one to engage with them?

[Auro]

maybe yourself, for the towncred u know

but really anyone BUT CHENNIS

If I

was

scum I'd be cursing in the PT about Chennis The Menace, eh

[Auro]

If he doesn't do it then he's, in plain english, "totally screwed"

Dude. Johnny was going to be elim'd early in every universe. If he joined the wagon rather than make a feeble attempt at deflecting it'd give him a lot more towncred and help chances of self-survival.
If AL *and* Flopz were scum their only play would be to both bus Johnny and let the "townblock" crumble from wagons.

[Auro]

an actual opinion on what you think my alignment is

Scumz [precedence to AL]. I'll be disappointed if town just goes Auro->Flopz->AL->Chennis and the game ends with a scum win.

[Auro]

Lilith - I'll try to come around on your slot today if you're town.

[Auro]

I know it sounds egotistical but I also think that if my slot went along with one of the many wagons that just popped up along the day, said wagon would've went through

On the other hand, I think that Johnny wagon would have gone through D2 or D3 at most regardless given his lack of presence.

[Auro]

The fact that you think this is a matter of reads and not simple mathematics at this point if we consider Chennis town for leading Johnny wagon, is kinda...???

but if we are mistaken about AL by any chance, we lose our way to auto town win as I detailed early.

Assuming your assumption about AL is that he's scum, my "simple mathematical" argument is that P(town!AL) > P(what you think town!AL is).

[Auro]

please provide reasons.

Like you, I also believe there was scum on the wagon. Your comfort with limming Johnny seems odd to me given you needed more time to get into it, you seemed more focused on townblock talk, and there was missing engagement with a lot of people - I'm used to seeing you go a lot more aggressively at everyone in a very sharply focused manner and I don't feel like I've seen that.

[Auro]

I also think that if you were suspect of me but couldn't articulate reasons that would be a very thing, wouldn't you want to place a large amount of focus on that?

[Auro]

??? because I said I was getting apathetic?? you think I lied in order to push the wagon through and gain towncred I didn’t need?

I don't think you lied to get a wagon through! I just find your positioning around Johnny incongruent with your lack of scumhunting-investment, with more excitement / intent to push through than one would with simple apathy.

You'll need the towncred in lim-lo!

[Auro]

auro i would like your reads right now

it doesn't have to be on everyone if there's people you just dont have an opinion on rn, but i'd like reads + a little bit of explanation rn

AL!town Flopz!town[but meh?] Lilith!scum. I do have w o r k right now, will detail later today. My team's pitching in soon, I'll relay their thoughts too.

[Auro]

a solid mechanical play I described

Which is contingent on AL being scum, as I understand, and disagree with. I think Flopz!wagon is going to go through anyway after my lim - I'm ambivalent about Flopz anyway, so I'm more focused on the final two elims.

[Auro]

It's very rare for me to adopt the "no engage policy", but I do feel that it's needed here at least from me because I've nothing to gain from interacting with them.

I've re:read the game, thought about it quite a bit, looked at their posts, the VCs, considered our mechanical advantage, and to me it's a question of getting this out of the way which in most cases wins the game.

If it doesn't win the game, at the very least it confirms scum in the town block which is already another important piece of info.

!Reminder!
It could be too late by that confirmation.

@Chennis: +town unless I find an explanation for your strategy of coming around on the townblock later in the day, which means you'd have to force a trajectory against it at some point which hasn't happened yet?

[Auro]

If you're town you absolutely have to stop being resigned to your death and just thinking "o well town will figure it out hurr durr," and the fact you're acting so ambivalent makes me think you're scum

Hell no. I am going to hunt down scum today, did I state anywhere "o well town will figure it out"? Eww

[Auro]

I'm fine with my death because of the consensus algorithmic approach that would otherwise leave me to a lylo lim which is gonna suck, and I'd rather have my flip provide backing to my reads.

[Auro]

Or.. or.. you can come find scum and help us perfect this game

Which I am doing today, no?

[Auro]

And of course the pointz

[Auro]

I'm fine with my death disagrees

Exclusive from "I'll hunt down scumz today"

[Auro]

@auro if you believe I’m scum, then why aren’t you arguing with shirou about that part of his game-winning strategy, when it’s dependent on my being town

... I am doing that, by arguing that your elim should take precedence over AL... ?

[Auro]

This is the kind of misinterpretation that you'll have to endure engaging with them

"as I understand"

[Auro]

What's the line of elims after Auro->Flopz?

[Auro]

I don't believe for a second that you'd be resigned to your fate if you were town.

I have precedence Rapier U-Pick go search it up

[Auro]

There's no line past that

it means one of our primary assumptions about the townblock are wrong so we would need to talk about it, which is why I think this just wins the game even if you're town most of the time, because Flopz is still likely scum vs reconsidering the assumptions which everyone seemed to agree by the end of D1.

So then my talk about Lilith elim preceding AL has nothing to do with the "strategy" anyway because it doesn't account for {Auro+Flopz!town} which I already know is 50% wrong, and am beginning to grow in confidence that it 100% is.

[Auro]

I don't believe for a second that you'd be resigned to your fate if you were town.

I have precedence Rapier U-Pick go search it up

Also just check last year's WF. I hunted scumz, I was also fine with my own death, a large part of my fight was not for my survival but to convince people that my scumread was correct and that they should elim that scumread after my death.

[Auro]

I don't believe for a second that you'd be resigned to your fate if you were town.

I have precedence Rapier U-Pick go search it up

Well maybe dont just do it again?

What's the

point

? Solving >>> surviving when survival is temporary and doesn't really matter much as opposed to solving when consensus is against your reads.

[Auro]

auro, have you considered that everyone else in this game is townreading me? do you believe me to be such a godtier scum player that I would be able to fool the entire town over a 160+ page game, including people who know how I play scum and multiple replacements?

1. Yes
2. Yes

[Auro]

I don't think you'd need to be a godtier scum player, people are just wrong sometimes