Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over


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Post Post #118 (isolation #0) » Sat May 08, 2021 1:53 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

VOTE: catboi

No this is not a RVS vote.
Yes, I do already hard scum read him.
Yes, I will tunnel on this all game

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Spoiler:
I do know that we are not supposed to vote someone out today
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Post Post #128 (isolation #1) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:02 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I think that I personally would prefer the Gate. But there appears to be a discussion on the best way to assign people to groups, so I can wait for that conversation to happen before I lock in my choice
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Post Post #132 (isolation #2) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 130, absinthe wrote:
In post 128, Lukewarm wrote:I think that I personally would prefer the Gate. But there appears to be a discussion on the best way to assign people to groups, so I can wait for that conversation to happen before I lock in my choice
What drives that preference?
Because so far, I do not think that I have had a single correct scum read in any completed game I have played in, and at the gate there is a 66% chance that I will automatically know the alignment of every player in my group :lol:

Spoiler:
I believe unwnd, catboi, and you can all attest to the level at which my scum reading ability is lacking
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Post Post #133 (isolation #3) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:09 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 132, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 130, absinthe wrote:
In post 128, Lukewarm wrote:I think that I personally would prefer the Gate. But there appears to be a discussion on the best way to assign people to groups, so I can wait for that conversation to happen before I lock in my choice
What drives that preference?
Because so far, I do not think that I have had a single correct scum read in any completed game I have played in, and at the gate there is a 66% chance that I will automatically know the alignment of every player in my group :lol:

Spoiler:
I believe unwnd, catboi, and you can all attest to the level at which my scum reading ability is lacking
Wait. It would only be 50% ...
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Post Post #135 (isolation #4) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 133, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 132, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 130, absinthe wrote:
In post 128, Lukewarm wrote:I think that I personally would prefer the Gate. But there appears to be a discussion on the best way to assign people to groups, so I can wait for that conversation to happen before I lock in my choice
What drives that preference?
Because so far, I do not think that I have had a single correct scum read in any completed game I have played in, and at the gate there is a 66% chance that I will automatically know the alignment of every player in my group :lol:

Spoiler:
I believe unwnd, catboi, and you can all attest to the level at which my scum reading ability is lacking
Wait. It would only be 50% ...

On second thought, It would probably be bad for the team for me to be in Gate. Because if I end up the innocent child, then my reads will matter for every minigame.

I need to rethink my preference :dead:
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Post Post #143 (isolation #5) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 138, Briar wrote:Hey Luke, what's your experience with mafia?
I have completed 2 games on this site (and I am in another).

Before that, I played several games in this mafia discord group that was full of people I knew IRL

And before that, I played a lot of One Night Ultimate Werewolf. Like I would guess at least 100 games, if not more.

But that means most of my experience is with playing with people that I know IRL, and people that I know well. So I felt like I was really good at reading people in those games, but so far on here... :dead: :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #159 (isolation #6) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 153, Briar wrote:
In post 143, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 138, Briar wrote:Hey Luke, what's your experience with mafia?
I have completed 2 games on this site (and I am in another).

Before that, I played several games in this mafia discord group that was full of people I knew IRL

And before that, I played a lot of One Night Ultimate Werewolf. Like I would guess at least 100 games, if not more.

But that means most of my experience is with playing with people that I know IRL, and people that I know well. So I felt like I was really good at reading people in those games, but so far on here... :dead: :dead: :dead:
Oh so you've like, played a lot. Huh.

If you're this unconfident I think I want to keep you out of the Gate-group, yeah. If you're town you'd most likely get slapped on the IC role and would be a lot of pressure, and if you're scum I feel like you'd be nervous enough where... it'd be good to be in the Wall group or something where it's just traditional mafia and the two town have to find each other to pick you out as the odd one.

I guess that you could be in any group as scum and it'd just shave off a person that we have to worry about, but really if you're town I think I'd rather have someone more experienced with the players (sorry if I'm like, assuming too little of your play right now) be there to guide us.

What do you think so far like, in general, of the people/what's been said? Do you have a preference between the other two, if you're doubting going to the Gate?
I may have exaggerated my anti-confidence for comedic effect. It is more like, I am becoming aware that my experience, primarily in ONUW, which is played face-to-face with friends and family, does not translate 1 to 1 to playing here.


Also, I have reconsidered, I don't think I should be in the Gate. Before the game started, I was only thinking about them individually, and not thinking about the fact that the IC would be important for the other areas as well.

So I think my preference now would be keep>wall>gate
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Post Post #168 (isolation #7) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 163, Infinity 324 wrote:I take back what I said about my scumreads mattering, I didn't realize we all got to vote on all the minigames. I still feel like the wall is the place where obvtowning is the least important (because if you're not conftown at the gate, you need to obvtown to not get limmed, and at the keep you need to obvtown to get voted). Unwnd why do you i disagree?
From my understanding, we each only get to vote for the minigame we are in, but we can all comment on all of the minigames. So the IC from the gate can try to help the people in the keep, ect
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Post Post #189 (isolation #8) » Sat May 08, 2021 2:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 164, Briar wrote:
In post 159, Lukewarm wrote: I may have exaggerated my anti-confidence for comedic effect. It is more like, I am becoming aware that my experience, primarily in ONUW, which is played face-to-face with friends and family, does not translate 1 to 1 to playing here.


Also, I have reconsidered, I don't think I should be in the Gate. Before the game started, I was only thinking about them individually, and not thinking about the fact that the IC would be important for the other areas as well.

So I think my preference now would be keep>wall>gate
Ohh, the classic self-deprecation. I get that.

What makes you want to go to the Keep? I have few guesses but I wanna hear what's on your mind about that one. :>

Also, is it influenced at all by you having a read on me, since I'm at the Keep?
For me, in the Keep, there are two win conditions for me.
I correctly read the other two players, find the scum, and vote the other town player
Or, alternatively, I could be the one voted for

In the Castle, there is only 1 win condition. I have to correctly identify the scum, if I fail, town loses that minigame.

In the Gate, then I think they will make me the IC (especially after the posts I have made :dead: ) So the win condition is the same as the castle, but now I would become an important voice for the other minigames as well. Not sure I want that responsibility.

Spoiler:
No, I did not remember who had put themselves into the keep, so that wasn't part of my reasoning
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Post Post #227 (isolation #9) » Sat May 08, 2021 3:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 206, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 203, Anastasia wrote:
In post 126, Something_Smart wrote:okay the anime avis are starting to get to me ngl
This is ironic because your avatar is also anime <3
Wow am I really alone as a non-anime avi? >.<
:roll: :roll:
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Post Post #234 (isolation #10) » Sat May 08, 2021 3:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 193, catboi wrote:Okay, thoughts readswise:

I like unwnd's early energy

I townread Infinity's - something about that mindset fees like it's coming from town

I think Lukewarm's posts have been solidly town and he'd be my first pick for someone to send to the wall right now

No particular scum pings yet
Not sure how to feel about this, because last game you scum read every post I made all the way up to MeLo.

Wait let me double check my notes here
Spoiler:
In post 118, Lukewarm wrote:VOTE: catboi

No this is not a RVS vote.
Yes, I do already hard scum read him.
Yes, I will tunnel on this all game

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yeah, I do already know how to respond to this.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #11) » Sat May 08, 2021 5:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 289, Marashu wrote: [*]When a minigame is resolved, all 3 players in that minigame flip. They may no longer post in the main thread or mafia PT.[/*]
[/list][/color]
Oooo. This is not something I had realized. Could make for some interesting plays Day 2.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #12) » Sat May 08, 2021 5:25 pm

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In post 316, absinthe wrote:Luke, do you have much experience with non-standard mafia game setups?
Not sure what is defined as "non-standard." I have played a game with a cult in it, and I have played a game with 2 mafia groups. I guess those are non-standard?
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Post Post #323 (isolation #13) » Sat May 08, 2021 5:40 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 305, catboi wrote:
In post 300, absinthe wrote:What are your thoughts about how to use the 3 minigames?
I got into that in , put your townreads in the keep, do whatever for the others. I think trying to game the IC at the gate is a bit of a waste of time, mafia are going to choose who they want as IC no matter what so it's not like they can be forced into making a bad choice. I'm mostly indifferent to how people arrange themselves in the other two.

I was actually going to type a bit more but I want to save those thoughts until after the assignments are finalized.
I don't know that I agree that it only matters where we put out top town reads. I was thinking about how we can organize the groups, and if we put our collective top scum reads in the same area, we can analyze the mafia switch.

I don't know how it is best to distribute the scum reads, like should we pick out our top 3, or just put our top 2 in the same area, and I'm still thinking about which area would be best to do this experiment. Would love for us to talk about this lol

But basically, I don't like the idea
In post 305, catboi wrote: I got into that in , put your townreads in the keep, do whatever for the others.
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Post Post #330 (isolation #14) » Sat May 08, 2021 5:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 322, Briar wrote:Thinking a bit, in a perfect world I think my groups right now would look like this:

Gate: Absinthe/Anastasia/Catboi
Wall: Unwnd/Dunnstral/Something_Smart
Keep: Briar/Lukewarm/Infinity

I think Unwnd/Infinity are interchangeable for the last two, but the Gate group would resolve a few of my reads? Like, confirming whether or not absinthe/Ana is T/T or T/S (because if it's S/S What The Fuck) would be important to me, and also it'd be nice if that was the case because I haven't gotten anything really Good from catboi yet and seeing whether or not he was confirmed would be cool. (This is also the assumption that the mafia would make the conversation between the former keep on going to the death? I think? Like there's already some uh, doubts between absinthe/Ana that they've vocalized so duh mafia preys on that.) This is the group with maximum WIFOM fuckery though so I worry that I'd get snowed pretty fast were mafia to divert from this but I'm gonna assume they'd play it sort of straightforward despite me talking about all this stuff out loud.

For the wall group, that's honestly the group where I'm like... could be any alignment, and I wouldn't be too surprised? I lean town on unwnd, actually, I townread unwnd now that I think about it a little bit just from how he's been playing even if I was questioning the 'why' he was trying to be so... diplomatic? I guess? It doesn't feel slimy like he's trying to placate people so much as just... figure shit out, so far. Which is nice. The latter two I have less experience with and in general don't find easy reads, so resolving that is a bit out of my paygrade. I am curious still about S_S's guess on me and why it bothered him, because he didn't say anything about it more and while I appreciate him not outting it for fear it's correct, it's a little... IDK. I guess my expectation was that he'd engage me even if my reply to him was very silly, because if it's something he was worrying about a bit he'd attempt to resolve it somehow.

And the last group, I Am Town, Luke has felt good so far and I do think that like, while he's not new to the site, the format itself is something he's still adjusting to and trying to keep up as mafia while in a group playing the Townie Pageant Game would probably be hell for him. If he's town he feels like he's the safest vote for us to pick and if he's scum he'll probably slip or something and we just vote either myself or Infinity if she's in here with us, and it's easy from there on.

As for order of who we let stay first, I think that (in the little world I am creating here) I'd let Wall > Keep > Gate do their votes? Actually, uh, probably Keep first now that I am thinking about it because if we're all voting for townreads and this is somehow the group that gets messed up and votes mafia, it'd be important to reset assuming we'd placed at that point a decent amount of trust into their reads. The IC should stick around as long as needed to dictate everything obviously, but now that I'm working through it I am very much into the Keep going first unless we all collectively agree one person is /disgustingly/ townie (sidenote: hey I'm the disgustingly townie one lol) and wanna see their reads or something pending a Wall-flip.

My brain is not functioning after typing this. Please enjoy.
Hmmm. The fact that you are already locked into the Keep, makes me apprehensive for you to pick the other people in the Keep with you. Because, if you are scum, that means you are picking out the the people you think you can most trick into town reading you.

I personally want to go to the keep as well, but I think that means we should let the rest of the thread pick our third.
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Post Post #339 (isolation #15) » Sat May 08, 2021 6:03 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 325, catboi wrote:
In post 323, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 305, catboi wrote:
In post 300, absinthe wrote:What are your thoughts about how to use the 3 minigames?
I got into that in , put your townreads in the keep, do whatever for the others. I think trying to game the IC at the gate is a bit of a waste of time, mafia are going to choose who they want as IC no matter what so it's not like they can be forced into making a bad choice. I'm mostly indifferent to how people arrange themselves in the other two.

I was actually going to type a bit more but I want to save those thoughts until after the assignments are finalized.
I don't know that I agree that it only matters where we put out top town reads. I was thinking about how we can organize the groups, and if we put our collective top scum reads in the same area, we can analyze the mafia switch.

I don't know how it is best to distribute the scum reads, like should we pick out our top 3, or just put our top 2 in the same area, and I'm still thinking about which area would be best to do this experiment. Would love for us to talk about this lol

But basically, I don't like the idea
In post 305, catboi wrote: I got into that in , put your townreads in the keep, do whatever for the others.
I suppose you can try, but I'm not sure how useful it's likely to be. But I'm a little bit fatalistic about the idea of trying to corral scumreads in this phase. I suppose it can't hurt to try?
I'm thinking of it more as an information gathering strategy.

Like as a thought experiment, with the scum swap, they have 3 things to juggle. They must put 1 mafia in every zone. They want to cherry pick an IC, and put them into the Gate if they are not there already. And they want to murky the read in the zones.

If we just go with "do whatever" for the others, then we might let them achieve all of those goals more easily.


And If we put our scum reads all at the wall, lets say we get 2 right and 1 wrong. Suddenly, they don't have free choice of swapping any more, we force their hand. They must target a town player, and move them to the wall to swap with the mafia there. Which means they have 0 ability to cherry pick an IC, because they cannot move a town player to the Gate.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #16) » Sat May 08, 2021 6:06 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Maybe that logic makes no sense, and I am over thinking it, but the idea of "just doing whatever" feels wrong to me
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Post Post #349 (isolation #17) » Sat May 08, 2021 6:29 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 332, Briar wrote:
In post 330, Lukewarm wrote:Hmmm. The fact that you are already locked into the Keep, makes me apprehensive for you to pick the other people in the Keep with you. Because, if you are scum, that means you are picking out the the people you think you can most trick into town reading you.

I personally want to go to the keep as well, but I think that means we should let the rest of the thread pick our third.
I mean, I don't expect everyone to go 9/9 with my same exact reads, but it's the configuration I think gives us the best odds right now of sorting the trickier spots in this game.

Are you apprehensive about me picking you? My assumption would be that if you're town that wouldn't be as much of a worry for you -- as a less experienced player (but still one who has experience with mafia) you shouldn't fumble I think? As town to the point where other people don't townread you, and I've already ceded the fact that as it stands I'd be fine voting you if that was the consensus. Also, do you have any read on me independent of me picking these things? (I think I prodded at this earlier but I am a little too lazy to go back through your ISO right now to see if you said anything about it.)
I don't think I responded before. I feel like there is a lot of noise in the thread, making it hard for me to get a read on several people on a blind read through, so I wasn't sure what I thought when you asked me the first time.

Since you asked me twice now, I stopped to look at your iso lol. I would say that I am tentatively giving you a town reading atm.
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Post Post #350 (isolation #18) » Sat May 08, 2021 6:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I am also getting a town read from unwnd, but maybe I am blinded by the beautiful romance unfolding before my eyes
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Post Post #352 (isolation #19) » Sat May 08, 2021 6:39 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 351, Anastasia wrote:It's possibly just because he is so charismatic.
Maybe

Spoiler:
Am I also falling for Unwnd :oops: :oops:
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Post Post #362 (isolation #20) » Sat May 08, 2021 7:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 361, Anastasia wrote:Briar who do you want to put in the Keep with you as a backup?
I think she said that that would be me
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Post Post #364 (isolation #21) » Sat May 08, 2021 7:41 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 363, Anastasia wrote:I don't think that was clear from her post at all.

Ideally I want to put two UTRs in the keep to guarantee a win there.
My bad. I just saw that her suggestion was [Her + me + one other flexible slot]. and then went on to say I "have felt good so far" and that "that as it stands she'd be fine voting me"

Sounded to me like I was her back up, but if she has a another person in mind, I would love to hear it.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #22) » Sat May 08, 2021 7:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 363, Anastasia wrote:I don't think that was clear from her post at all.

Ideally I want to put two UTRs in the keep to guarantee a win there.
Now I am curious, how are you reading me?
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Post Post #367 (isolation #23) » Sat May 08, 2021 7:55 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 366, absinthe wrote:This may be the shortest reset period in my mafia career.

and this may be my last post of the night.
I am not sure what "shortest reset period" means?
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Post Post #428 (isolation #24) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:09 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 400, Anastasia wrote:I've decided

Don't break my heart.

VOTE: Keep
....

Why would you do this. Like you presented a plan, and all of 1 other player agreed with you, and you locked in your vote. Which by the way, I do not like your plan.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #25) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:12 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Ugh. Seeing that made me want to immediately vote keep, just to make sure you didn't get to brute force your own plan into place. But I am going to actually wait for the group to decide before I just place myself...
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Post Post #446 (isolation #26) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 361, Anastasia wrote:Briar who do you want to put in the Keep with you as a backup?
In post 370, Briar wrote:Lukewarm's my backup, yes.

I have no reason right now to think he isn't town. And if he isn't town, I think that when we get down to the nitty-gritty he'd probably slip and show his hand (especially if we sorted in the Wall group first where he'd be forced to take stances).
In post 400, Anastasia wrote:I've decided

Don't break my heart.

VOTE: Keep
Like, you acted started the conversation like you cared who other people thought should be in the keep, but even though the person you asked said something different, you decided to lock yourself in regardless.
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Post Post #476 (isolation #27) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:28 pm

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Question for the thread. Should I vote myself into the keep? Like can I get a count on who is on board with that?

I think that that is the best place to put me, and Briar made a decent case for me going there as well. But now that 2 of the slots are locked in, I am worried that if I wait, I will end up somewhere else.
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Post Post #491 (isolation #28) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 479, unwnd wrote:
In post 476, Lukewarm wrote:Question for the thread. Should I vote myself into the keep? Like can I get a count on who is on board with that?

I think that that is the best place to put me, and Briar made a decent case for me going there as well. But now that 2 of the slots are locked in, I am worried that if I wait, I will end up somewhere else.
Are you not paying attention to what's being said right now when it comes to the swap mechanic?
I know the swap mechanic exists, however, the majority of town players are going to end up where they vote today. Mafia can swap either 1 or 2 town players, dependent on if they manage to get an even spread today. So 66-83% of all town players are going to end up where they vote today.
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Post Post #497 (isolation #29) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:38 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 490, Anastasia wrote:
In post 476, Lukewarm wrote:Question for the thread. Should I vote myself into the keep? Like can I get a count on who is on board with that?

I think that that is the best place to put me, and Briar made a decent case for me going there as well. But now that 2 of the slots are locked in, I am worried that if I wait, I will end up somewhere else.
I think if you were to come into the keep you would need Briar's permission at this point unless you want to commit to voting me/briar through
Really,
you
are going to tell me to wait for other people's permission before putting myself into a zone.
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Post Post #502 (isolation #30) » Sat May 08, 2021 9:41 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 495, unwnd wrote:
In post 491, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 479, unwnd wrote:
In post 476, Lukewarm wrote:Question for the thread. Should I vote myself into the keep? Like can I get a count on who is on board with that?

I think that that is the best place to put me, and Briar made a decent case for me going there as well. But now that 2 of the slots are locked in, I am worried that if I wait, I will end up somewhere else.
Are you not paying attention to what's being said right now when it comes to the swap mechanic?
I know the swap mechanic exists, however, the majority of town players are going to end up where they vote today. Mafia can swap either 1 or 2 town players, dependent on if they manage to get an even spread today. So 66-83% of all town players are going to end up where they vote today.
I'm not sure where this ties in with why you wanted to move to the Keep
Then maybe I am missing something from the discussion about the swap mechanic. I have said I wanted to end up in the keep since like page 6 of the thread. I thought you were saying "you know, you might be swapped out even if you go there." and my response was "I know that that is a possibility, but I am most likely to end up there if I start there.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #31) » Sat May 08, 2021 10:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 496, Briar wrote:Actually, it's probably better for Ana to pick who she wants in the final slot? If she's in fact wanting to vote someone other than herself it should be someone she's confident in.
Okay, I ran through all of the possibilities if we now commit to this plan - Ana choses the 3rd player to enter the Keep, and commits to voting which ever of the two is left with her in the Keep after the switch (and if she tries to back out, we all assume she is scum claiming) - to see how it would play out.

Like I considered all of the combinations of Briar, Ana, and Ana's 3rd choice being town/scum

Spoiler:
If Briar is
town

and Ana is
town
, and choses another
town
, we win this mini-game, regardless of the swap.
and Ana is
town
, and chooses
scum
, we lose this minigame (Briar is swapped out, Ana votes her 2nd choice, we lose)

and Ana is
scum
, and choses a
town
player, we win this mini-game, regardless of the swap.
and Ana is
scum
, and chooses another
scum
player, we win this mini game (they can't swap out Briar, so we just vote for her)


If Briar is
scum
, I think we now lose this minigame, regardless of Ana's alignment.
and Ana is
town
, they swap Ana's 2nd choice, and we lose this mini game

and Ana is
scum
. This is the strangest one to parse out, but we probably lose??


My conclusion, is that Ana is almost certainly town, because the scenarios with town!Briar + scum!Ana means scumAna is giving us the win for this minigame.

But I am still incredibly frustrated by her locking herself in without letting the thread talk about it. Because it seems to me, that this minigame now hinges entirely on her being able to have successfully town read 2 different players Day 1. Like she took a lot of agency away from the whole team by making her play.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #32) » Sun May 09, 2021 6:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 540, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 533, absinthe wrote:I'm ok with going to the Keep.
Putting 3 towny players in the Keep seems like a massive waste
I think I agree. We only need two in there, 1 as the main vote choice, and 1 as the back-up in case the main vote is swapped out.

Are people comfortable with Briar as the main vote, and Ana as the back up? if so, we could leave the third slot for the "left over" player.

So I guess the question is really, does anyone scum read Briar or Ana?
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Post Post #549 (isolation #33) » Sun May 09, 2021 6:51 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 93, Anastasia wrote:
In post 84, Briar wrote:I think the point is more that it's probably objectively the Worst to send the hard to reads to the Keep because if they're all like, in that place where scum end up a lot of null-town/townleany it's a fucking headache to deal with.
Well if you become as blazingly townie as you promise, then it would make sense to send the scummy/nully people to the keep with you right?
In post 363, Anastasia wrote:I don't think that was clear from her post at all.

Ideally I want to put two UTRs in the keep to guarantee a win there.
In post 379, Anastasia wrote:I believe Absinthe/Me/You are all town.

So the scum would have to sub one of us out and put a scum in keep if they get 2-1 in the other 2 areas.

its very unlikely imo that the keep group can stay at me-absi-you, but if it does i'll deal with that situation when it comes up.
Ana, I am interested by the fact that your opinion on the Keep seems to have evolved from suggesting we put exactly 1 UTR in the keep, to saying the ideal would be 2 UTRs in the Keep, to deciding the best course of action would be for you to add yourself + your top town read, such that you are 100% sure all 3 players in the Keep are town.

I am just curious what made you change your mind here.
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Post Post #554 (isolation #34) » Sun May 09, 2021 7:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 548, absinthe wrote:My thought is that putting 3 town (very likely town) into the keep forces the Mafia to use one of their swaps there. And the lack of the swap if that were to happen would force a massive reset on all of town, which would be crucial to not screwing up day 2.
I think I agree with this idea, but I wish we had done this at the Wall instead of at the Keep.

I think Keep is the easiest to win for town, because for scum to win this one they have to be the "Most Town Player," but in the other zones scum would have to be "More Town then 1 other player."

So locking all of our most town read players into the easiest to win zone seems less then appealing.

But now, I don't know which is better:
Force mafia to swap inside out most town player list
or
Avoiding putting all of our most town read players in the easiest to win game

And because people have already locked themselves in to certain areas, we cannot do both of these things anymore.
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Post Post #612 (isolation #35) » Sun May 09, 2021 8:06 am

Post by Lukewarm »

If there was no swap, I think I my preferred set up would be

Gate: S_S, Infinity, Dunn - because an IC on any of them would be enlightening
Keep: Briar and Ana, I think are both town, so the Keep's last slot should be a left over spot imo
Wall: Me, Unwnd, Absinthe (aye, a repeat of our last game together :facepalm: :facepalm: )

Which puts Catboi in the Keep. Although, I think that Catboi could swap with Dunn at the gate with no problem for me.

But, there is a swap to consider.... Which makes this a much more difficult puzzle to solve :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #624 (isolation #36) » Sun May 09, 2021 8:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 614, absinthe wrote:
In post 612, Lukewarm wrote:Wall: Me, Unwnd, Absinthe (aye, a repeat of our last game together )
We're not doing this if I have anything to say about it.
I am curious why you would be adamantly against it.

Like the one game the 3 of us played together in, was also my first game with you or unwnd (and my first game on this site period). If we were doing a repeat grouping, I would be a bit more equipped to handle it I think. I would be going in with two players that I have experience with personally, and 2 players I have seen interact together as well. Which is better then me going to the gate (and being IC'ed) with two people I have never played with imo
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Post Post #629 (isolation #37) » Sun May 09, 2021 8:37 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 627, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 601, Infinity 324 wrote:Honestly I feel pretty good about my TRs on briar and ana, which means I think I like putting someone I also TR strongly at the keep. Absinthe would not be that player for me, but I do feel better about her than I did before.

The chances of any specific group of 3 being town is about 18% if I did my math right, which seems like something that's reasonable to try and go for. I also feel like it's reasonable to try and go for putting 2 scum in the same group (probably the wall) if we can. Then the gate could contain some null reads. Thoughts?
To be clear, this is what I think is optimal. Townreads at the keep, scumreads at the wall, nullreads at the gate.
I'm curious what made you decide scum reads should go to the wall? That is the one where we have to find the scum without an IC in there. If we put 3 people we are already suspicious of in there, wouldn't that increase the chances that we miselim there?
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Post Post #632 (isolation #38) » Sun May 09, 2021 8:40 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 630, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 623, Anastasia wrote:so my question to you is what is optimal then?
I kind of answered that here:
In post 620, Something_Smart wrote:I think the bottom line is that we want the Gate to have all the scummiest players after the swap (I THINK? I may try to math this out honestly because it's a costly thing to get wrong), and we want the Keep to have exactly one towny player after the swap. It's not totally clear what the best way to achieve that is, or even if there is a good way.
I'm not vehemently opposed to Infinity's idea, but I feel like I would prefer this: 2 townreads + 1 nullread at the Keep, any remaining strong townreads at the Wall, then fill out the Wall with the scummiest players and put the rest at the Gate.

The reasoning being: you need exactly 2 known townies to guarantee victory at the Keep. The third is superfluous, and we might as well put a hard-to-read player there instead. Putting a known townie at the Gate meanwhile makes it trivial for the scum to give us no information with the IC reveal. (At least make them work, if they want to do that.) So, we put other townreads at the Wall. Then, we don't want to stuff the Gate with scummy people because that gives scum more control over who gets IC'd, so we put the other scummy people at the Wall (which we would be happy to turn into a 50/50 since it's the hardest minigame) and the rest at the Gate.
I think that this thought process is the one I most vibe with on a cursory read through.
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Post Post #636 (isolation #39) » Sun May 09, 2021 8:43 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I am actually leaning towards locking myself in to the Wall at the moment.

Now that Briar + Ana are already locked into the Keep, I think the strategic benefit of me going there is a bit lost. And I do not want to go to the Gate, because I would prefer not to be the IC if possible.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #40) » Sun May 09, 2021 8:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 649, absinthe wrote:
In post 624, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 614, absinthe wrote:
In post 612, Lukewarm wrote:Wall: Me, Unwnd, Absinthe (aye, a repeat of our last game together )
We're not doing this if I have anything to say about it.
I am curious why you would be adamantly against it.

Like the one game the 3 of us played together in, was also my first game with you or unwnd (and my first game on this site period). If we were doing a repeat grouping, I would be a bit more equipped to handle it I think. I would be going in with two players that I have experience with personally, and 2 players I have seen interact together as well. Which is better then me going to the gate (and being IC'ed) with two people I have never played with imo
I really don't need the trauma. Given the reads on the table in that game, I recognise it probably wasn't town-winnable, but it was the first game in over 5 years that I was miselimed in elo, and I'd have to go back nearly another 5 years for another game where I was the game-losing miselim.

You're not townreading me here, so why should I expect a better outcome?

I like this game design because 1) I can't be N1K'd and 2) there are two minigames that don't involve the standard ELO.
But I was townreading you here :sob:
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Post Post #662 (isolation #41) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:07 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 654, absinthe wrote:
In post 652, Lukewarm wrote:But I was townreading you here :sob:
then I don't understand why you were against briar/anastasia/me in the keep. Can you clarify that?
I was against it, because I had a scum lean on Ana before she locked herself in, and as a knee jerk reaction, I thought "I should not let her single handedly decide the make up of the Keep" and almost locked myself in for the sole reason of denying her the set up she wanted. But when I stopped and examined how her suggestion would play out (Post ), I concluded that even though I did not like the play she made, it was probably coming from town.

Basically, I was thinking about the suggestion in terms of Ana being the person making it, and not in terms of you being in her suggestion.
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Post Post #674 (isolation #42) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:20 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 235, catboi wrote: really I just don't want to be in the same location as you, no hard feelings I swear~ (jkjk)
In post 614, absinthe wrote:
In post 612, Lukewarm wrote:Wall: Me, Unwnd, Absinthe (aye, a repeat of our last game together )
We're not doing this if I have anything to say about it.

I am become pariah
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Post Post #675 (isolation #43) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 673, absinthe wrote:
In post 662, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 654, absinthe wrote:
In post 652, Lukewarm wrote:But I was townreading you here :sob:
then I don't understand why you were against briar/anastasia/me in the keep. Can you clarify that?
I was against it, because I had a scum lean on Ana before she locked herself in, and as a knee jerk reaction, I thought "I should not let her single handedly decide the make up of the Keep" and almost locked myself in for the sole reason of denying her the set up she wanted. But when I stopped and examined how her suggestion would play out (Post ), I concluded that even though I did not like the play she made, it was probably coming from town.

Basically, I was thinking about the suggestion in terms of Ana being the person making it, and not in terms of you being in her suggestion.
Why are you townreading me in this game?
To be fully honest, I had you as a town lean, not a hard read, but it was primarily your earlier interactions with Ana. Which is also when I put Ana as a scum lean. This quote from Briar felt like she was reading my mind on the exchange tbh
In post 297, Briar wrote:there's a bit of me that wonders if Ana's bit off a bit much for her to chew if she is scum and is trying to placate absinthe who was not having it if that is the case
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Post Post #692 (isolation #44) » Sun May 09, 2021 10:52 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 691, unwnd wrote:That's rainchecked for now

It felt a bit (without offending) like an excited child. I don't think he really thought through what it would mean to either of us and just sort of threw it out there. Do you think that lack of consideration is more telling of him as scum?
I mean, I am slightly offended by that tbh. I did think about it, like I considered my how I would feel if neither of you were swapped out, and I also thought about what it would mean for me if one of you were - I just did not voice those thoughts because I was told that having that information out in the thread would be detrimental to town.

Regardless, I am reconsidering my suggestion.
In post 640, Briar wrote:Hmm. True.

There's just a small part of me that doesn't trust her despite everything because as a player I feel this is the sort of thing she would do as scum so holding her accountable to her willingness to vote someone who's not herself makes me more comfortable with her. Like, I'm pre-emptively neutering her as scum.

But I guess that her willingness to do that only extended to me/absinthe I think?

Like, hm.
Specifically, if Briar is unsure about having her+ana be the vote block in the keep, think I might be the best person to go there??
I may be wrong, but I think I have been townread by over half the lobby, so maybe I would make sense to be that person.

Unless people object to that / have a better candidate?
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Post Post #698 (isolation #45) » Sun May 09, 2021 11:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 693, unwnd wrote:
In post 692, Lukewarm wrote:I mean, I am slightly offended by that tbh. I did think about it, like I considered my how I would feel if neither of you were swapped out, and I also thought about what it would mean for me if one of you were - I just did not voice those thoughts because I was told that having that information out in the thread would be detrimental to town.

Regardless, I am reconsidering my suggestion.
Is your reconsideration only because of what I said just now?
No, I was already thinking that, based on two things.
First.
In post 636, Lukewarm wrote:I am actually leaning towards locking myself in to the Wall at the moment.

Now that Briar + Ana are already locked into the Keep, I think the strategic benefit of me going there is a bit lost. And I do not want to go to the Gate, because I would prefer not to be the IC if possible.
I thought me going to the keep was pointless if we already had a Briar+Ana vote block there, but if Briar is uncomfortable letting that be the vote block, then then it would make sense again for me to go.

Second.
Absinthe's immediate aversion to the combination, has caused me to second guess some of the unspoken "who I would vote dependent on the swap" logic I had when I made the suggestion to begin with.
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Post Post #702 (isolation #46) » Sun May 09, 2021 11:27 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 700, unwnd wrote:I think the best for me to determine your alignment is to understand what you feel most strongly about, Luke. You've been one of my nulls for a good while because I think you're just a blip right now. Again, not trying to offend. It's just clear to me there are bigger people talking bigger things and then you're trying to get your two cents in. Maybe your averse reaction to me is a sign that you took offense because that
is
what you felt most strongly about
Honestly, I feel like a lot of the back and forth in this thread has been around meta commentary on other players and self-meta analysis, and I am personally not a big fan of those discussions. Both because I have the least experience with other players in this lobby, and because I prefer to focus on the the game we are actually in. So there is a whole lot of content being put out there that I am both unequipped and uninterested in grappling with ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I have come to realize that meta analysis is pretty big on this site tho, like people are regularly playing in alt accounts to avoid it because it is so prevalent. And like I have found it off-putting that in every game I have played in so far, has end up with people posting links to other completed games, like I have the time to read through every player in every lobby's back log :dead: :dead:

So, if it feels like there are "bigger people talking bigger things" that I am breezing past, it is because they are conversations that I don't particularly enjoy parsing through.
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Post Post #703 (isolation #47) » Sun May 09, 2021 11:41 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 700, unwnd wrote:Maybe your averse reaction to me is a sign that you took offense because that is what you felt most strongly about
Also, do you feel like I had a particularly adverse reaction to you?

You said you did not think that I thought about my suggestion, And I responded with a post to trying to state that I did think about my suggestion.

If anything, I was hopping that would make you more likely to engage with my suggestions, then if you were left to believe that my suggestions are made without thought behind them.
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Post Post #712 (isolation #48) » Sun May 09, 2021 2:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 711, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 708, absinthe wrote:
In post 705, Dunnstral wrote:If Briar and Anastasia are both town, Why doesn't anybody care/want to be in the keep? Shouldn't mafia want to put a member in there so they can swap more effectively?
Have you missed that both Luke and I want to be in the keep?
I was under the impression that neither of you wanted to be in the keep
In post 696, absinthe wrote:
In post 692, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 691, unwnd wrote:
In post 640, Briar wrote:Hmm. True.

There's just a small part of me that doesn't trust her despite everything because as a player I feel this is the sort of thing she would do as scum so holding her accountable to her willingness to vote someone who's not herself makes me more comfortable with her. Like, I'm pre-emptively neutering her as scum.

But I guess that her willingness to do that only extended to me/absinthe I think?

Like, hm.
Specifically, if Briar is unsure about having her+ana be the vote block in the keep, think I might be the best person to go there??
I may be wrong, but I think I have been townread by over half the lobby, so maybe I would make sense to be that person.

Unless people object to that / have a better candidate?
I still want to go to the keep.

If you preempt that, I'll likely cast a grumpy Vote Gate immediately, and then I probably stew in my concerns about a Dun/catboi/me Gate trio unless/until reality overtakes that.

I have said that I want to go to the keep if Briar is uncomfortable letting the vote block be Briar+Ana.
Absinthe has said they want to be at the Keep period.
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Post Post #716 (isolation #49) » Sun May 09, 2021 2:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 713, Dunnstral wrote:you guys both think that Ana is town or no?
I think that Ana is town, and personally am okay with the Briar+Ana vote block. But if Briar is serious about not wanting that to be the vote block, then I think I am the best candidate to go.

So my preference is that we either, leave the Briar+Ana vote block, and we send the left over player there. Or we send me for a Briar+Me vote block
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Post Post #717 (isolation #50) » Sun May 09, 2021 2:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 714, Dunnstral wrote:I'm trying to figure out why you wouldn't want to put someone you scumread in the keep
This was similar to my suggestion, until Briar mentioned being unsure about letting Ana vote for themselves if she is swapped out.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #51) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 720, Anastasia wrote:
In post 714, Dunnstral wrote:I'm trying to figure out why you wouldn't want to put someone you scumread in the keep
I'd like to take a shot on infinity-ss-unwnd as the scum team because I am a naive dreamer.
If you are 100% right on all 3 members of the scum team, this wins. If you are wrong on any one of them, this setup makes the Wall much harder to win.

I think I would be more open to this plan, if one of your scum reads was not already locked into the Wall, and we could send them somewhere else.
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Post Post #729 (isolation #52) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:05 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 723, unwnd wrote:
In post 703, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 700, unwnd wrote:Maybe your averse reaction to me is a sign that you took offense because that is what you felt most strongly about
Also, do you feel like I had a particularly adverse reaction to you?

You said you did not think that I thought about my suggestion, And I responded with a post to trying to state that I did think about my suggestion.

If anything, I was hopping that would make you more likely to engage with my suggestions, then if you were left to believe that my suggestions are made without thought behind them.
I did. I felt your decision was impulsive and the last time we talked I didn't have a true grasp of why you wanted the pairings you did. Or why you wanted to jump in. My understanding is that you're mostly using the minigames as a way of sorting who you like and don't like, and that you'd prefer to be with people that you do? Like in the sense of 'i townread them'.
And that is because I was told not to explain everything too much in advance :dead:

I thought through it, and placed people based on which combinations I thought would either give us the most information from the mafia swam or from the IC choice, and leave each minigame most likely to be won by town.

I was quite honestly surprised when it ended up with the three of us together, because I definitely did not go into sorting with that in mind.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #53) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:12 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 728, Anastasia wrote:
In post 727, Something_Smart wrote:If me, Infinity, and unwnd don't all end up at different locations post-swap, then we are 100% ruled out as a team. So if scum don't ensure that we do all end up at different locations, you got your wish at eliminating that team, without having to strongarm the locations. And if scum do ensure that we all end up at different locations, it means they couldn't use their swap to do whatever else they wanted to do.

ok but why wouldn't the scum want to put you three in different locations?

I mean, the mafia likely does not get full choice on the swap. They will likely have to move from the game with 2 mafia -> the game with 0 mafia. So who knows if they will even be able to use thier swap to keep you in the dark if that is a viable team. And even if they CAN do that, then it would give them a new goal with the swap (on top of the 1 mafia in every game rule, and trying to choose who they want as an IC), which could make it harder for them to do an optimal swap.
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Post Post #734 (isolation #54) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:13 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 731, unwnd wrote:
In post 729, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 723, unwnd wrote:
In post 703, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 700, unwnd wrote:Maybe your averse reaction to me is a sign that you took offense because that is what you felt most strongly about
Also, do you feel like I had a particularly adverse reaction to you?

You said you did not think that I thought about my suggestion, And I responded with a post to trying to state that I did think about my suggestion.

If anything, I was hopping that would make you more likely to engage with my suggestions, then if you were left to believe that my suggestions are made without thought behind them.
I did. I felt your decision was impulsive and the last time we talked I didn't have a true grasp of why you wanted the pairings you did. Or why you wanted to jump in. My understanding is that you're mostly using the minigames as a way of sorting who you like and don't like, and that you'd prefer to be with people that you do? Like in the sense of 'i townread them'.
And that is because I was told not to explain everything too much in advance :dead:

I thought through it, and placed people based on which combinations I thought would either give us the most information from the mafia swam or from the IC choice, and leave each minigame most likely to be won by town.

I was quite honestly surprised when it ended up with the three of us together, because I definitely did not go into sorting with that in mind.
I am of the same opinion of absin that I would very much dread a 3-way there
I mean, I have already said that my opinion on that combination has already changed, so you don't need to convince me.
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Post Post #735 (isolation #55) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 674, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 235, catboi wrote: really I just don't want to be in the same location as you, no hard feelings I swear~ (jkjk)
In post 614, absinthe wrote:
In post 612, Lukewarm wrote:Wall: Me, Unwnd, Absinthe (aye, a repeat of our last game together )
We're not doing this if I have anything to say about it.

I am become pariah
In post 731, unwnd wrote: I am of the same opinion of absin that I would very much dread a 3-way there
That was supposed to be a joke, but maybe I
am
become pariah
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Post Post #741 (isolation #56) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:25 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 739, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 736, unwnd wrote:So.

What I said about 'there has to be scum in Briar/Absin/Ana' didn't really get as much attention as I'd thought. Sure Absin talked about it with me but that's because she's apart of it. It's just more likely you respond to someone calling your name out regardless of alignment. I finally got a decent nap in so I just want to say I feel a bit more prepared. I'm not willing to call all 3 town but do I agree with the majority on Ana. The initial interaction with her was my own impetus. I don't really think Ana comes in ready to die as scum and hopes the gambit just works out. She basically would have to assume Absin/Briar would feel bad for her and tinfoil the other. I also think everyone's response to her claims makes me believe she doesn't really have partners to go along with the "Plan" either. I don't really know where she sees me/s_s/infinity and my biggest guess would be that she thinks S_S is frustrated that Briar/Absin/Ana all happened to find each other as town. Placing those 3 in 'have to have scum together' was more of a comfort to me as I didn't want to believe S_S/Infinity/Lukewarm/Catboi/Dunn comprised a whole scumteam. Mind you there's more than 3 there. I still don't really feel that way, even if the person I suspect the most out of there is catboi.
If I were scum and Briar/Ana were both town, I'd already be in the Keep
Why?
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Post Post #760 (isolation #57) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 753, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 750, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 744, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 742, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 739, Dunnstral wrote:If I were scum and Briar/Ana were both town, I'd already be in the Keep
I'd treat this as a scumclaim
Go on
It's not town-motivated at all to lock in a vote without discussing here, especially since it encourages scum to do the same.
And if I do scum claim, what are you going to do about it?
Okay... But why would you, as scum do it?

Like I feel like you are trying to make the point Briar+Ana can't both be town, because if they were both town, then a scum would have put themselves there already. But I am not following your logic, because I cannot figure out what the scum team would gain from making the play of locking themselves in there already.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #58) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 759, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 757, Something_Smart wrote:ok but like if Briar and Ana are both town don't we want scum to take the last slot?
Did you forget about the swap mechanic?
Dude. If you just auto-locked yourself in right now, I feel like the consensus would be that you scumclaimed, and we would just move forward with "vote anyone but Dunn" and we would just win the mini game, regardless of the swap mechanic.

Unless you think you could scum claim there, and then we would be so confused by the swap mechanic, we would just forget? lol
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Post Post #775 (isolation #59) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 764, Anastasia wrote:
In post 760, Lukewarm wrote:Okay... But why would you, as scum do it?

Like I feel like you are trying to make the point Briar+Ana can't both be town, because if they were both town, then a scum would have put themselves there already. But I am not following your logic, because I cannot figure out what the scum team would gain from making the play of locking themselves in there already.
I think it's a good point that Dunnstral raises

however the scum team I proposed SS-Infinity are both not as bold as Dunnstral so I can see them choosing to not sacrifice themselves at the Keep in a daring ploy.
Please, please, explain to me the good point he made, because I missed it.

What would the scum team possibly gain by locking themselves into the Keep?

Because it seems to me like Dunn is making a case that you or Briar must be scum, and I cannot figure out how he is coming to this conclusion.
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Post Post #783 (isolation #60) » Sun May 09, 2021 3:59 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 769, Dunnstral wrote:
Lukewarm wrote:
In post 759, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 757, Something_Smart wrote:ok but like if Briar and Ana are both town don't we want scum to take the last slot?
Did you forget about the swap mechanic?
Dude. If you just auto-locked yourself in right now, I feel like the consensus would be that you scumclaimed, and we would just move forward with "vote anyone but Dunn" and we would just win the mini game, regardless of the swap mechanic.

Unless you think you could scum claim there, and then we would be so confused by the swap mechanic, we would just forget? lol
But wouldn't town already win the mini game if there's three town locking into that group?
I am asking what is the incentive to a scum locking themselves into the Keep.

If they lose the Keep minigame if they lock in early AND they lose the minigame if they don't lock in early

Then how are you using the fact that they did not lock in early to draw any conclusions?
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Post Post #807 (isolation #61) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 786, Anastasia wrote:
In post 783, Lukewarm wrote:I am asking what is the incentive to a scum locking themselves into the Keep.

If they lose the Keep minigame if they lock in early AND they lose the minigame if they don't lock in early

Then how are you using the fact that they did not lock in early to draw any conclusions?
I don't think we should discuss optimal scum strategy for them lol
He is claiming, that based on his logic there is most likely 1 scum between you+Briar.
We are considering hanging the Keep's minigame on collectively town reading you+Briar.

If his logic makes sense, then we absolutely should discuss it, because that would mean we need to re-examine our town reads on you+Briar
If his logic is flawed, then we are giving the scum team flawed advice anyways, so it does not matter.
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Post Post #815 (isolation #62) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 807, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 786, Anastasia wrote:
In post 783, Lukewarm wrote:I am asking what is the incentive to a scum locking themselves into the Keep.

If they lose the Keep minigame if they lock in early AND they lose the minigame if they don't lock in early

Then how are you using the fact that they did not lock in early to draw any conclusions?
I don't think we should discuss optimal scum strategy for them lol
He is claiming, that based on his logic there is most likely 1 scum between you+Briar.
We are considering hanging the Keep's minigame on collectively town reading you+Briar.

If his logic makes sense, then we absolutely should discuss it, because that would mean we need to re-examine our town reads on you+Briar
If his logic is flawed, then we are giving the scum team flawed advice anyways, so it does not matter.


If you + Briar are both in the keep, and both town read, the scum have lost this minigame - unless they can make us doubt the town read on Briar+you.

So imo, either dunn is scum, trying to cast doubt on you+Briar being town, or he is town and has figured out some reason we should not trust the town reads on you+Briar that the rest of the lobby missed.

Either way, I want to hear from him.
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Post Post #827 (isolation #63) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 822, Dunnstral wrote:If you guys still think I'm throwing doubt at the players already in the keep you don't fundamentally understand what I'm arguing
In post 756, Dunnstral wrote:It's not bravado, this is a continuation of me saying what I'd do if I were scum here, and why I sort of doubt briar + ana as town
:roll: :roll:
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Post Post #830 (isolation #64) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 829, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 769, Dunnstral wrote:That there's scum in those 3? Logically yes, but it feels like nobody understands what I'm getting at, so actually no.
I got only eyes for you, and I am dying for you to enlighten me.
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Post Post #834 (isolation #65) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:42 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 833, absinthe wrote:
In post 736, unwnd wrote:So.

What I said about 'there has to be scum in Briar/Absin/Ana' didn't really get as much attention as I'd thought. Sure Absin talked about it with me but that's because she's apart of it. It's just more likely you respond to someone calling your name out regardless of alignment. I finally got a decent nap in so I just want to say I feel a bit more prepared. I'm not willing to call all 3 town but do I agree with the majority on Ana. The initial interaction with her was my own impetus. I don't really think Ana comes in ready to die as scum and hopes the gambit just works out. She basically would have to assume Absin/Briar would feel bad for her and tinfoil the other. I also think everyone's response to her claims makes me believe she doesn't really have partners to go along with the "Plan" either. I don't really know where she sees me/s_s/infinity and my biggest guess would be that she thinks S_S is frustrated that Briar/Absin/Ana all happened to find each other as town. Placing those 3 in 'have to have scum together' was more of a comfort to me as I didn't want to believe S_S/Infinity/Lukewarm/Catboi/Dunn comprised a whole scumteam. Mind you there's more than 3 there. I still don't really feel that way, even if the person I suspect the most out of there is catboi.
underwhelming.
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Post Post #860 (isolation #66) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:24 am

Post by Lukewarm »

My head hurts from trying to figure this out. Can someone I TR just tell me what location to lock myself into (personally preference of keep>wall>gate) :dead:
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Post Post #973 (isolation #67) » Mon May 10, 2021 3:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 883, absinthe wrote:
In post 880, Something_Smart wrote:One of them was already explained, which is that it's good to have no more than two townread players at the Keep, seeing as we only need one to end up there post-swap.
The other is that the Wall is the hardest minigame and you're the kind of person who would give us a good shot at winning it :]
I don't think you have any idea just how little ELO practice I get, statistically speaking, especially as town. I'm good enough at obvtowning that I wind up nk'ed early A LOT.
I have found that the key is obvtowning, but with terrible reads. I have yet to be Night Killed in any game I have played in, despite being widely town read Day 1 in a couple of them
Spoiler:
I have yet to be in the ghost chat of any game I have been in. That might be neat one day
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Post Post #975 (isolation #68) » Mon May 10, 2021 3:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 890, unwnd wrote:Other points of interest is what Lukewarm does about Dunn because it seemed like he was keen on something Dunn did? But he never got around to it
I have come to the conclusion that he is likely to be scum tbh.

I think that there are 2 possibilities for a reason why someone would try to make the case that we can't trust that Briar+Ana are town.
  • They are town, and they spotted a reason that the rest of the town missed
  • They are scum, and their only chance at winning the Keep is to put doubt on that pair
So I pushed him to explain, and he backed down with "people just are not understanding my point" and even though I came back with "my entire goal right now is understanding your point, please explain" he never did. If a town player really thought we were potentially setting the keep up for an auto-lose situation, then I have to believe they would have pressed more to get the thread to understand the point he was making.

But he didn't, which makes me feel like he could not actually back up his shade on the duo, which would place him in the scum backed reasoning for making the claim to begin with.

Spoiler:
There is a 3rd possibility, of town having made the initial claim using faulty reasoning, but Dunn did not leave with "maybe I was wrong" he left with "I am right, but people don't understand"
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Post Post #978 (isolation #69) » Mon May 10, 2021 3:15 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I think I am settled on Absinthe being the better choice to go to the Keep for a couple of reasons.
  • Briar appears to be more confident in Absinthe over me.
  • If there is a world where combination of Briar+Ana+Absinthe does contain a scum, then it is probably good to leave open the possibility that they can't swap one out (if both other scum end up in the same group they can't swap any of these 3). If Briar+Ana+Absinte stays in place to the Day 2, that would be a massive eye opener before the day started.
  • If we put 3 town at the keep, then one of them will probably end up the IC at the gate, so even if I go there, then I might still end up at the gate
But I also do not want to end up in the Gate.

VOTE: Wall
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Post Post #980 (isolation #70) » Mon May 10, 2021 3:21 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

(also, I have a guess about Briar and Ana's mains, which I am looking forward to figuring out if they are right)
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Post Post #990 (isolation #71) » Mon May 10, 2021 3:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 985, Briar wrote:
In post 980, Lukewarm wrote:(also, I have a guess about Briar and Ana's mains, which I am looking forward to figuring out if they are right)
How ... did you find out if you are NEW HERE.
I have played with one of my guesses. I have not played with the other. But I recently read through an old game because that game's set up is being used again in another game I am in, and yall's interactions used some of the same terms as my guess's interactions in that old game. Specifically
In post 912, Briar wrote:It took me some time but I finally realized
our soul connection cannot be broken
in these different bodies.
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Post Post #991 (isolation #72) » Mon May 10, 2021 3:32 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 989, absinthe wrote:
In post 980, Lukewarm wrote:(also, I have a guess about Briar and Ana's mains, which I am looking forward to figuring out if they are right)
I do too.

Tempted to PM my guesses to the mod as a postgame "game".
That could be fun. PM him, and ask him to put our guesses in the Mod chat :lol:
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Post Post #1155 (isolation #73) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:03 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1017, absinthe wrote:Not what I expected.

Not what I wanted.
I saw this as a possibility. Part of the reason I decided against going Keep, and gave it to you. But yeah, lots to process
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Post Post #1157 (isolation #74) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1023, Dunnstral wrote:Ignore the dumb speculation about absinth. Ok, Infinity is confirmed scum?
I think Infinity is almost certainly scum, but not necessarily confirmed I guess? If scum managed a 1-1-1 split, they could have swapped 2 town players. Does not seem likely, but theoretically possible.
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #75) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:05 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1033, catboi wrote:
In post 1031, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1029, catboi wrote:but I thought you thought scum was at the keep?
We've went over this. I'm now at the phase where I'm ready to push everyone who keeps bringing this up as I believe it's a scum tell to tunnel in on that aspect
I tried looking back at your iso and couldn't find an explanation
Agreed. Last thing he said was "people are not understanding me" and then dropped it.
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #76) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:12 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1072, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1059, Anastasia wrote:if Unwnd/Luke are both town then he needs to jump on the wall to prevent an auto-lose
how so
May already be answered, but responding as I read.

If Briar+Ana+Absinthe were town, all locked into the Keep and Me+Unwnd are town locked into the Wall, then if the last town makes it into the wall, it is an auto lose for scum.

I'm still thinking on everything, but that was Ana's point.
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Post Post #1175 (isolation #77) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1085, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1075, Anastasia wrote:i mean if you're scum and unwnd/luke are T/T then you need to jump on the wall because if a townie jumps on the wall the game is over.
Your theory is a bad one because it puts both me and infinity in a bad position, when s_s is very unlikely to jump at anything, in fact, due to personality
Briar wrote:
In post 1065, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1062, Anastasia wrote:the town motivation he should've said was because he townread luke/unwnd and he wanted to go for the auto-win but he didn't say that :<
I didn't say that because it's not true. I thought that there was 1 scum between unwnd/luke already.
When did you vocalize this, or did you?
I didn't, because there was no reason to talk after the lock in.

The crux is that, yes,
I believed that your group was all town.
I didn't believe that the other 3 were all scum given how casually they were talking about placements (but if they were all scum, we'd have won anyway)

Luke has been weird. Unwnd is a good player and I'm not 100%. Right now I'd guess catboy and luke,
Almost certain you said the exact opposite of the bolded during Day 1. Will go back to cross reference once I am caught up
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #78) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1178, absinthe wrote:
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.
We could not find each other last game, even at ELo, but we found each other this game Day 1

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Post Post #1207 (isolation #79) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:38 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1196, Dunnstral wrote:
Luke jumped to the wall right after absinthe jumped to the keep. Catboi was already at the gate.
That is incorrect. Me and Absinthe were both requesting to be the final slot at the keep, then
I
decided that Absinthe could have it, and then locked myself into the wall. Then Absinthe locked herself into keep.
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #80) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1182, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1175, Lukewarm wrote:Almost certain you said the exact opposite of the bolded during Day 1. Will go back to cross reference once I am caught up
I want you to go back to and tell me what you think I was saying
You said that if Birar+Ana were town, and you were scum, then you would have already locked yourself into the Keep. You continued the argument to the conclusion that "I sort of doubt briar + ana as town." Then you went on to say that "logically" there must be a scum in the 3 of [Briar+ana+absinthe]

But that you felt like people were missing some other point you were trying to make.

I then dedicated many posts to trying to understand this so called "misunderstood point." And you stopped responding.


Spoiler:
In post 815, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 807, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 786, Anastasia wrote:
In post 783, Lukewarm wrote:I am asking what is the incentive to a scum locking themselves into the Keep.

If they lose the Keep minigame if they lock in early AND they lose the minigame if they don't lock in early

Then how are you using the fact that they did not lock in early to draw any conclusions?
I don't think we should discuss optimal scum strategy for them lol
He is claiming, that based on his logic there is most likely 1 scum between you+Briar.
We are considering hanging the Keep's minigame on collectively town reading you+Briar.

If his logic makes sense, then we absolutely should discuss it, because that would mean we need to re-examine our town reads on you+Briar
If his logic is flawed, then we are giving the scum team flawed advice anyways, so it does not matter.


If you + Briar are both in the keep, and both town read, the scum have lost this minigame - unless they can make us doubt the town read on Briar+you.

So imo, either dunn is scum, trying to cast doubt on you+Briar being town, or he is town and has figured out some reason we should not trust the town reads on you+Briar that the rest of the lobby missed.

Either way, I want to hear from him.
In post 827, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 822, Dunnstral wrote:If you guys still think I'm throwing doubt at the players already in the keep you don't fundamentally understand what I'm arguing
In post 756, Dunnstral wrote:It's not bravado, this is a continuation of me saying what I'd do if I were scum here, and why I sort of doubt briar + ana as town
:roll: :roll:
In post 830, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 829, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 769, Dunnstral wrote:That there's scum in those 3? Logically yes, but it feels like nobody understands what I'm getting at, so actually no.
I got only eyes for you, and I am dying for you to enlighten me.


I left a clear possibility that you were town who had figued something out that everyone missed, and that I very much wanted to understand your point, and you just never came back :(
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Post Post #1231 (isolation #81) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:00 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1216, Dunnstral wrote: ...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but
in reality, that player was lost anyway
, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep
There would be 2 people under suspicion either way at the Gate, because of the innocent child.
There was going to be 1 person under suspicion either way at the Keep, either the scum-claim-insta-lock-in or the person swapped in.
And you said yourself that there are 3 possibilities at the Wall in both scenarios.

What you are claiming here is simply not true. The number of people under suspicion in each area is the same either way.
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #82) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1225, Dunnstral wrote: ...Did you completely miss where I said 'but actually no'?

Look at
My issue is that during Day 1, you did not explain the "but actually no." And then multiple people asked you to explain it better, and you just didn't. Instead you dropped out of the conversation until you could lock in the set up.

I am going to go back and read 1170 again, and try my best not to tunnel you over this, but you locking Day 1, without comment, after I asked you ever so nicely to explain it to me, is not a great place for us to be starting today off. Because now, if you are town, the only way we win this game is if you can convince me to over look all of that.

Like, I really wanted to understand you during Day 1
In post 830, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 829, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 769, Dunnstral wrote:That there's scum in those 3? Logically yes, but it feels like nobody understands what I'm getting at, so actually no.
I got only eyes for you, and I am dying for you to enlighten me.
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #83) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1228, Dunnstral wrote:The last thing I wanted to do yesterday was explain in great detail how this was actually an optimal move for scum to make, only for somebody to finally clue in and actually execute it

I started explaining that I thought ana and briar were suspicious because of the lack of such a move, but because nobody seemed to understand what I was talking about, I concluded that I was dealing with a scum team that wasn't thinking about this sort of thing
Okay....
So I think this is the first time I have seen something from you that makes sense as to why a town!you might have handled it this way. Like I read all of your other posts in Day 2, and still did not see a reason, but here is a reasonable one.

Spoiler:
Trying. Not. To. Tunnel.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #84) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:23 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1240, Dunnstral wrote:I don't understand how everybody is looking at Luke write paragraphs on mech and thinking that they're either over their head or not a bold player

It seems obvious to me that they have some experience
Absinthe, unwnd, and catboi have all watched me very boldly be very wrong in prior games, so I do have a reputation in this lobby :cop: :cop: :cop:
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #85) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Spoiler:
In post 1243, Anastasia wrote:
In post 1216, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1208, unwnd wrote:
In post 1204, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1202, unwnd wrote:
In post 1200, Dunnstral wrote:Would this game have been harder if scum had scumclaimed and locked themself in the keep day 1, yes or no?
I don't see anyone here who would kamikaze as scum

That includes ana
I would. I would have locked myself into the keep. It's not like I was particularly townread.
In post 1205, Dunnstral wrote:That's also not what I asked, I asked if it would be harder, not if scum would actually do it
So what, like a feint? Scumclaim just to prove a point?
...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but
in reality, that player was lost anyway
, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep

I think Dunn believes this to be true :3
In post 1244, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1243, Anastasia wrote:I think Dunn believes this to be true
+1


Am losing my general frustration at Dunn.

Reading this again, I also think he might believe this to be true as well, regardless of his alignment.
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Post Post #1254 (isolation #86) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1056, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1048, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1025, Something_Smart wrote:Dunn can you explain why you went Wall without consulting anyone?
Because you wanted infinity at the wall, and from my point of view there was very likely 1-2 scum between the two of you

So I forced both S_S and Infinity into the keep to see what would happen. The result is that there was already 1 scum in the wall, and likely the last 2 in the keep
So when you locked yourself in, did you already think that I was one of the scum players?
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Post Post #1263 (isolation #87) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:44 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1256, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1254, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1056, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1048, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1025, Something_Smart wrote:Dunn can you explain why you went Wall without consulting anyone?
Because you wanted infinity at the wall, and from my point of view there was very likely 1-2 scum between the two of you

So I forced both S_S and Infinity into the keep to see what would happen. The result is that there was already 1 scum in the wall, and likely the last 2 in the keep
So when you locked yourself in, did you already think that I was one of the scum players?
No, I didn't have that level of confidence on unwnd, but I did think there was probably 1 (and only 1) scum between you two. That wasn't guaranteed though, what I was most sure of was that I'd be forcing two scum into the gate.
Why did you think it was better to force 2 scum into the gate instead of the wall?
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Post Post #1264 (isolation #88) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:49 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1257, Anastasia wrote:
In post 1251, Lukewarm wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 1243, Anastasia wrote:
In post 1216, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1208, unwnd wrote:
In post 1204, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1202, unwnd wrote:
In post 1200, Dunnstral wrote:Would this game have been harder if scum had scumclaimed and locked themself in the keep day 1, yes or no?
I don't see anyone here who would kamikaze as scum

That includes ana
I would. I would have locked myself into the keep. It's not like I was particularly townread.
In post 1205, Dunnstral wrote:That's also not what I asked, I asked if it would be harder, not if scum would actually do it
So what, like a feint? Scumclaim just to prove a point?
...Do you still not understand?

I'm saying that on day 1, mafia would have a greater chance of winning the game if they put someone in the keep.

It 'sacrifices' somebody, but
in reality, that player was lost anyway
, so they're not losing anything. If they don't do that, they'll have to send someone to the keep, and it's very unlikely that the person they send gets picked or even treated as anything other than mafia.

This is what happened here. They let absinthe take the slot, and then infinity got sent over and they confirmed absinthe as to have the least impact because it doesn't matter who of absinthe or infinty was scum if the keep was resolved first by choosing briar or ana, and then that reveals the alignment of infinity and gives an idea on absinthe.

If they had put infinity in during day 1, the day would have probably ended in a 1-1-1 split, or maybe some variation of 2-0-1/0-2-1. The wifom potential would be there, either way, making it a lot harder to figure things out.

Right now there's 2 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep (as scum)

If somebody had sacrificed themself:

There would be 3 people being considered in the Gate, 3 people being considered in the Wall, 1 person being considered in the Keep

I think Dunn believes this to be true :3
In post 1244, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1243, Anastasia wrote:I think Dunn believes this to be true
+1


Am losing my general frustration at Dunn.

Reading this again, I also think he might believe this to be true as well, regardless of his alignment.
wouldn't him believing this to be true imply that he has to be town here?
I think that he might have believed locking into the Keep was a net positive for the scum team. But like the entire rest of the possible scum players in the lobby appeared to have disagreed - so he could have been outvoted in the scum chat over how to play the day.

idk man. I'm backing down from a heavy scum lean, to "let me consider the possibility that he is town"

so I am considering
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Post Post #1266 (isolation #89) » Wed May 12, 2021 6:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1263, Lukewarm wrote: Why did you think it was better to force 2 scum into the gate instead of the wall?
I promise I am going somewhere with this line of questioning.
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #90) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1265, Dunnstral wrote: It wasn't about 2 at the gate or 2 at the wall, I saw a lot of people suddenly lock in, my reads aren't 100%, there was a chance in my mind that if I let S_S and Infinity do whatever they wanted, we'd end up in an unfavorable situation. And what S_S wanted was for Infinity to go to the wall.
This is shockingly similar to the reason I almost locked into the Keep immediately after Ana did.... which makes it harder for me to say this is a fake reason.

Not that it matters now, but I believe it would have been better for town to try and put 2 scum at the wall instead of at the gate.

Spoiler:
You stated you believed all 3 of [Briar+Ana+Absinthe} to be town.

Putting 2 scum at the gate let them IC one of those 3, which did not give us much info because they were already being townread.

Putting 2 scum at the wall would have forced the scum team to swap one of them into the wall, so Absinthe would have moved to the wall, and one of {catboi , you, S_S} would have been forced to be IC'ed

Forcing 2 scum into the gate, meant that they got to send the town read over to the gate to be ICed, and therefore not give us much more information.
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Post Post #1280 (isolation #91) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:07 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1272, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1269, Anastasia wrote:I think his point is that two scum in the wall is better than two scum in the gate because it gives us an extra IC
I was not capable of forcing two scum in the wall
But if you thought me+unwnd had exactly 1 scum, adding yourself to the wall made it impossible for there to be 2 scum at the wall.
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Post Post #1281 (isolation #92) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1279, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1276, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1265, Dunnstral wrote: It wasn't about 2 at the gate or 2 at the wall, I saw a lot of people suddenly lock in, my reads aren't 100%, there was a chance in my mind that if I let S_S and Infinity do whatever they wanted, we'd end up in an unfavorable situation. And what S_S wanted was for Infinity to go to the wall.
This is shockingly similar to the reason I almost locked into the Keep immediately after Ana did.... which makes it harder for me to say this is a fake reason.

Not that it matters now, but I believe it would have been better for town to try and put 2 scum at the wall instead of at the gate.

Spoiler:
You stated you believed all 3 of [Briar+Ana+Absinthe} to be town.

Putting 2 scum at the gate let them IC one of those 3, which did not give us much info because they were already being townread.

Putting 2 scum at the wall would have forced the scum team to swap one of them into the wall, so Absinthe would have moved to the wall, and one of {catboi , you, S_S} would have been forced to be IC'ed

Forcing 2 scum into the gate, meant that they got to send the town read over to the gate to be ICed, and therefore not give us much more information.
It's moot because I didn't have the capability of making scum have two people at the wall
So if you had put yourself at the gate, then there was a 50% chance of there being 2 people at the wall.

Putting yourself at the gate, from your POV, there was now a 0% chance of there being 2 people at the wall.

So you made that arrangement impossible, so I wanted to hear your thoughts about that arrangement
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Post Post #1282 (isolation #93) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:09 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1281, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1279, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1276, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1265, Dunnstral wrote: It wasn't about 2 at the gate or 2 at the wall, I saw a lot of people suddenly lock in, my reads aren't 100%, there was a chance in my mind that if I let S_S and Infinity do whatever they wanted, we'd end up in an unfavorable situation. And what S_S wanted was for Infinity to go to the wall.
This is shockingly similar to the reason I almost locked into the Keep immediately after Ana did.... which makes it harder for me to say this is a fake reason.

Not that it matters now, but I believe it would have been better for town to try and put 2 scum at the wall instead of at the gate.

Spoiler:
You stated you believed all 3 of [Briar+Ana+Absinthe} to be town.

Putting 2 scum at the gate let them IC one of those 3, which did not give us much info because they were already being townread.

Putting 2 scum at the wall would have forced the scum team to swap one of them into the wall, so Absinthe would have moved to the wall, and one of {catboi , you, S_S} would have been forced to be IC'ed

Forcing 2 scum into the gate, meant that they got to send the town read over to the gate to be ICed, and therefore not give us much more information.
It's moot because I didn't have the capability of making scum have two people at the wall
So if you had put yourself at the gate, then there was a 50% chance of there being 2
people
scum at the wall.

Putting yourself at the gate, from your POV, there was now a 0% chance of there being 2
people
scum at the wall.

So you made that arrangement impossible, so I wanted to hear your thoughts about that arrangement
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #94) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

The problem I was having is that I can immediately spot why scum!Dunn could have wanted to quick lock into the wall, but could not see why town!Dunn would. It seems overall worse for town to do so imo.

But "people are locking in, and I don't want the scum team to get what they want" is the exact emotion I felt when Ana locked in, so there it is. A valid town thought process to get us here.

Much to think about.

Luckily, I don't have to decide who I want to vote until the very end (and maybe not at all if we win the first 2 games :D :D )
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Post Post #1287 (isolation #95) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:40 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Dunn, not to look a gift horse in the mouth or anything, but like, what changed your mind from

This:
Spoiler:
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
In post 1235, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1178, absinthe wrote:
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.
All Luke talks about is:

-Keep Mechanics
-My briar/ana read
-my mech talk about scum going into the keep and how that relates to my briar/ana read
In post 1237, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1198, unwnd wrote:I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting
So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here
In post 1240, Dunnstral wrote:I don't understand how everybody is looking at Luke write paragraphs on mech and thinking that they're either over their head or not a bold player

It seems obvious to me that they have some experience

to this:
In post 1285, Dunnstral wrote:Meanwhile I've changed my mind and I think Unwnd is scum in here now
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #96) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:53 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1289, unwnd wrote:Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics
I was not trying to talk mechanics... I was trying to talk about his motivation for locking into the wall. To see if I thought the decision was town motivated or scum motivated. Isn't that how you are supposed to play this game?

Before I talked to him, I could only come up with a scum motivation (which was based on mechanics), but once I talked to him, I decided that I can see a potential town motivation.

I have not decided on either of you yet, but I do feel like that was a productive conversation for us to have.
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Post Post #1298 (isolation #97) » Wed May 12, 2021 7:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1288, Dunnstral wrote:The problem is that Luke is right but they're arguing that it's suboptimal, not that it's scum motivated

Because if I'm scum, and infinity is also scum, and s_s wants infinity at the wall, then there's no problem with that unless you think I got spooked for a different reason, which sn all town at the wall (though from your pov there should be doubt about me being in that position as scum in the first place)
There was another reason I thought Scum!dunn might have done it, but there is not point in going over it (might make unwnd angry :lol: ) and the thought will actually resolve itself after the other minigames are revealed anyways.
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Post Post #1300 (isolation #98) » Wed May 12, 2021 8:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1297, unwnd wrote:
In post 1294, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1289, unwnd wrote:Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics
I was not trying to talk mechanics... I was trying to talk about his motivation for locking into the wall. To see if I thought the decision was town motivated or scum motivated. Isn't that how you are supposed to play this game?

Before I talked to him, I could only come up with a scum motivation (which was based on mechanics), but once I talked to him, I decided that I can see a potential town motivation.

I have not decided on either of you yet, but I do feel like that was a productive conversation for us to have.
I personally got nothing out of it knowing

1) How dunn is
2) The previous points I just made
Okay... you got nothing from it.

I got myself out of a tunnel.

Before that conversation, I could not understand why town!dunn would have ever made the play that he did, and therefore had a hard time thinking of him in any way other then 100% scum. Now, I can see a logical reason for town!dunn to have made the play. Now I can step back and examine both of you more clearly.

Seems like a productive time to me.
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #99) » Wed May 12, 2021 8:06 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

My entire line of questioning was trying to get to the answer of "if you are town, why would you have done this"

Sorry, if that ended up including some mechanical talk /s
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Post Post #1307 (isolation #100) » Wed May 12, 2021 8:07 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

But regardless, finding the scum in the wall is less pressing then finding the scum at the gate imo, so I am more then happy for the conversation to change direction
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Post Post #1309 (isolation #101) » Wed May 12, 2021 8:09 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I say that, but it is 3 am. I am going to sleep.

@absinthe, please solve the keep correctly so that I don't actually end up the deciding vote this game
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Post Post #1331 (isolation #102) » Thu May 13, 2021 3:04 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1319, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1041, Dunnstral wrote:Infinity is confirmed scum because absinthe is confirmed town at the keep
Scum can swap town with town if there's 1 scum in each group.

I don't know if I have much agency here, I think briar is probably the scum because ana promised to vote for the other in this group but yeah.
Infinity is here ?

I don't think there is a danger in letting her decide which person is voted out of the keep (obviously herself excluded).

If she is scum, both Ana+Briar are safe to vote out.
If she is somehow town, she is the only one that knows that, and therefore could make the difference in the Ana/Briar choice.

No risk, possible (if unlikely) reward.
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Post Post #1340 (isolation #103) » Thu May 13, 2021 3:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1335, unwnd wrote:Lukewarm is there a game on this site where you've been scum? Have you ever been scum in general?
No, I have been a vanilla townie in all finished games.

My primary experience before this was ONUW, and I was a werewolf in a lot of games there, but that is a very different game.
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Post Post #1359 (isolation #104) » Thu May 13, 2021 3:40 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1322, Anastasia wrote:I agree that it's unfair to you that they are clearing themselves off mech nonsense.
I did not clear him tho?

I was lowkey tunnel thinking about him over quick-locking into the wall, and wanted to get his motivation for that. Once I got a plausible town motivation, I decided that I did not need to assume he is scum. - I was not meaning to make it look like I was basing it off of mech nonsense, because I was really looking for his motivation.

I still see potential scum motivations, but my thoughts on those motivations will almost certainly change based on the flips before we get to a wall vote anyways, so no reason to waste thread spaced debating those as of now.

I had unwnd as a town lean Day 1, so Dunn still has an uphill battle imo
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Post Post #1366 (isolation #105) » Thu May 13, 2021 3:47 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1341, unwnd wrote:Do you have previous experience with mafia outside of this site?
Asked and answered?

Handful of games on a Discord server, was scum in exactly 1 of those.

Lots of 1 night ultimate werewolf, lots of games as werewolf, but despite being a similar concept, that is a substantially different game (in-person, with people I knew IRL, and essentially every game starts at ELo).
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Post Post #1409 (isolation #106) » Thu May 13, 2021 4:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1362, Briar wrote:In the interests of not having half this table informed tiptoeing around my identity/meta when I’m not actively hiding it: I’m Ydrasse.
That was one of my guesses!! (did not know which of you/ana might be ydrasse)

But I read through Divide and Conquer during Day 1 of this game because I am in round 2 of that set up.
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Post Post #1411 (isolation #107) » Thu May 13, 2021 4:58 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1388, Briar wrote:Speaking of votes: when is the best time for us to flip? Assuming Keep first is still the preferred move — the other groups will be harder to resolve but I don’t know when it’s best to give up our presence vs. confirmed flips.
I think that this should be up to absinthe. Like once she is ready to move on to her own minigame, we can.
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Post Post #1442 (isolation #108) » Thu May 13, 2021 6:02 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1439, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1245, Lukewarm wrote:My issue is that during Day 1, you did not explain the "but actually no."
If this still isn't clear, I'm pretty sure it's because when dunn proposed the theory, everyone disagreed with him. This led dunn to believe the scum were truthful in their disagreement, meaning briar/ana can both be town (since scum wouldn't lock into the keep anyway).
Yeah, we got there eventually :lol:
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Post Post #1465 (isolation #109) » Thu May 13, 2021 6:53 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1456, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1289, unwnd wrote:Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics
In post 1290, unwnd wrote:Both of your arguments are just hearsay and me needing to believe what you would do in accordance to how the night played out

Not what you've organically gained from it
How is unwnd not obvtown to everyone
I am not sure how that exact quote is supposed to sway me one way or the other. Because in the moment, it seems like he was angry that we were giving each other town reads, which he should be upset about as either alignment, no?

Town!unwnd loses if me and Dunn both TR each other over mechanics (and probably thinks this is a dumb reason to lose)
Scum!unwnd loses if me and Dunn both TR each other over mechanics (and probably thinks this is a dumb reason to lose)
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Post Post #1467 (isolation #110) » Thu May 13, 2021 7:13 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1466, Infinity 324 wrote:The way he approached it required him to be trying to read you and he felt that the mechanics talk was getting in the way of that. If you don't see it I don't know what to tell you
To be honest with you Infinity, probably not going to put too much stock in what you say before you flip. But I promise to look back at your arguments if you do flip town

So, if you
are
town, please feel free to leave as many thoughts as you have on any and all players at the wall for me to look back at :cop: :cop:
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Post Post #1680 (isolation #111) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:05 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh no...

Saw the flip, but otherwise need to catch up.
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Post Post #1682 (isolation #112) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1468, Infinity 324 wrote:That is a man that believes I am scum.
Yeah, I did. But I will be looking at your thoughts now that you are conf!town.
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Post Post #1690 (isolation #113) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:23 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1478, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1474, absinthe wrote:
In post 1461, Infinity 324 wrote:You can call it a soulread I guess.
Ok, what specifically about his play looks beyond the scumrange of 90%+ of MS players?
For unwnd to be scum he would have to have crafted a seamless narrative of how he can and can't approach reading people in this game. Every time there's something that's opaque for him he comes in with the perfect emotional tenor, perfect level of frustration, and incredible depth of his thought process. It would be such an immense talent to be able to put yourself in a town mindset so deeply to be able to fake that.
So, uhhh. We have 2 new confirmed town, and Infinity made the case for town unwnd, and Ana made the case for scum unwnd. Which, uhh... does not help me very much :sob:
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Post Post #1694 (isolation #114) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:25 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1515, absinthe wrote:Luke, do you have a Gate solve?
Will work on this as soon as I am caught up, but since the flip has happened, my brain is like "ahhhh" and will need to take a long hard look back over things before I give my solve.
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Post Post #1700 (isolation #115) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1561, unwnd wrote:
In post 1555, Briar wrote:
In post 1553, unwnd wrote:You believe what you want Ydra but the fact is that the whole game hates me should tell you either that I'm just a very popular guy or scum is just riding the trend
That's the roadblock that I have when it comes to you being scum right now. I don't get what the move is for scum if they're bussing at all. They can't win like that in a setup like this.
Why did it even become consensus? D1 you had Ana who was dedicated in her solve and now D2 comes and I'm instantly scum for everyone

Even fucking lukewarm
Are you not reading my posts?
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Post Post #1714 (isolation #116) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:42 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1632, absinthe wrote:
In post 1629, catboi wrote:
In post 1626, absinthe wrote:
In post 1624, catboi wrote:Like seriously, someone back me up here: How does that post make any sense from a town POV who is scumreading unwnd?
hmm.

What do you think it says about unwnd's alignment?
It might mean he's town because otherwise I don't see why s_s puts so much emphasis on why he needs to win the gate but honestly my head is spinning trying to figure it out. I would expect him to not be so overtly fatalistic with a partner on the chopping block.

On individual merits it's very hard for me to see unwnd as town though.
My only strong townread in that group is Luke.

If he's scum this game I will laugh many tearful hollow laughs.
I think that that would be the funniest of outcomes imo. You scumread town!me in our newbie, you scumread town!me in the game you spectated, and then you townread scum!me in this game :lol: :lol:
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Post Post #1715 (isolation #117) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:43 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1623, catboi wrote:
In post 1422, Something_Smart wrote:Gate last still feels like common sense to me. If we win the Gate, we likely win the game, and I have very little faith in us winning Wall.
Wait, weren't you saying you think unwnd is scum? And now both Lukewarm and Dunn FOS him? Why would you say you have little faith in us winning there?

Is this a perspective slip?
It is really frustrating reading through the thread, and seeing people repeatedly incorrectly state my reads in the wall when I feel like I have been pretty open about them
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Post Post #1726 (isolation #118) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:48 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1650, Something_Smart wrote:Man, imagine how nice it would have been if we'd put Ana/Briar/absinthe at the Wall instead of at the Keep.
Turns out we would have lost the wall lol

But, this feels like a town-thought to me.
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Post Post #1734 (isolation #119) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:52 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1686, unwnd wrote:
In post 1680, Lukewarm wrote:Oh no...

Saw the flip, but otherwise need to catch up.
I dumped a huge wall that I would appreciate that you at least skim
Read through it once as I am catching up, had... mixed thoughts. Planning to look at it again once I am fully caught up (like 2 more pages of posts happened since I started catching up :dead: )
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Post Post #1744 (isolation #120) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Can we all collectively blame Ana for the loss at the keep?

Like a nice public shaming that they can read from the ghost chat

:shakes fists:
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Post Post #1764 (isolation #121) » Fri May 14, 2021 6:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1748, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1744, Lukewarm wrote:Can we all collectively blame Ana for the loss at the keep?
No? Infinity was the one who misvoted, not Ana
I am pretty sure we lost the keep because of Ana's gambit when she locked in.

Made a whole post about it when it happened

Spoiler:
In post 511, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 496, Briar wrote:Actually, it's probably better for Ana to pick who she wants in the final slot? If she's in fact wanting to vote someone other than herself it should be someone she's confident in.
Okay, I ran through all of the possibilities if we now commit to this plan - Ana choses the 3rd player to enter the Keep, and commits to voting which ever of the two is left with her in the Keep after the switch (and if she tries to back out, we all assume she is scum claiming) - to see how it would play out.

Like I considered all of the combinations of Briar, Ana, and Ana's 3rd choice being town/scum

Spoiler: If Briar is [color=#00BF00
town[/color]
and Ana is
town
, and choses another
town
, we win this mini-game, regardless of the swap.
and Ana is
town
, and chooses
scum
, we lose this minigame (Briar is swapped out, Ana votes her 2nd choice, we lose)

and Ana is
scum
, and choses a
town
player, we win this mini-game, regardless of the swap.
and Ana is
scum
, and chooses another
scum
player, we win this mini game (they can't swap out Briar, so we just vote for her)


If Briar is
scum
, I think we now lose this minigame, regardless of Ana's alignment.
and Ana is
town
, they swap Ana's 2nd choice, and we lose this mini game

and Ana is
scum
. This is the strangest one to parse out, but we probably lose??
/spoiler]

My conclusion, is that Ana is almost certainly town, because the scenarios with town!Briar + scum!Ana means scumAna is giving us the win for this minigame.

But I am still incredibly frustrated by her locking herself in without letting the thread talk about it. Because it seems to me, that this minigame now hinges entirely on her being able to have successfully town read 2 different players Day 1. Like she took a lot of agency away from the whole team by making her play.


But even if no one else wants to join me, I just wanted to take a moment and let Ana know I blame her

Anyways. Not a productive conversation. Moving on.
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Post Post #1772 (isolation #122) » Fri May 14, 2021 6:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1763, unwnd wrote:D1:
Ana - unwnd is scum
S_S - unwnd is scum
Dunn - unwnd is town
Lukewarm - unwnd is town
Catboi - unwnd is scum
Infinity - don't remember if she gave a read
You - unwnd is scum?
Ydra - unwnd is town

D2:
Ana - unwnd is scum
S_S - unwnd is scum
Dunn - unwnd is scum
Lukewarm - unwnd is scum
Catboi - unwnd is scum
Infinity - unwnd is town (lol)
You - unwnd is?
Ydra - unwnd is scum

See the difference?
Every time you state that I have a scum read on you makes me want to bang my head against my keyboard. You are not reading my posts.

Spoiler:
In post 350, Lukewarm wrote:I am also getting a town read from unwnd, but maybe I am blinded by the beautiful romance unfolding before my eyes
In post 1294, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1289, unwnd wrote:Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics
I was not trying to talk mechanics... I was trying to talk about his motivation for locking into the wall. To see if I thought the decision was town motivated or scum motivated. Isn't that how you are supposed to play this game?

Before I talked to him, I could only come up with a scum motivation (which was based on mechanics), but once I talked to him, I decided that I can see a potential town motivation.

I have not decided on either of you yet
, but I do feel like that was a productive conversation for us to have.
In post 1300, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1297, unwnd wrote:
In post 1294, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1289, unwnd wrote:Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics
I was not trying to talk mechanics... I was trying to talk about his motivation for locking into the wall. To see if I thought the decision was town motivated or scum motivated. Isn't that how you are supposed to play this game?

Before I talked to him, I could only come up with a scum motivation (which was based on mechanics), but once I talked to him, I decided that I can see a potential town motivation.

I have not decided on either of you yet, but I do feel like that was a productive conversation for us to have.
I personally got nothing out of it knowing

1) How dunn is
2) The previous points I just made
Okay... you got nothing from it.

I got myself out of a tunnel.

Before that conversation, I could not understand why town!dunn would have ever made the play that he did, and
therefore had a hard time thinking of him in any way other then 100% scum. Now, I can see a logical reason for town!dunn to have made the play. Now I can step back and examine both of you more clearly.


Seems like a productive time to me.
In post 1359, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1322, Anastasia wrote:I agree that it's unfair to you that they are clearing themselves off mech nonsense.
I did not clear him tho?

I was lowkey tunnel thinking about him over quick-locking into the wall, and wanted to get his motivation for that. Once I got a plausible town motivation, I decided that I did not need to assume he is scum. - I was not meaning to make it look like I was basing it off of mech nonsense, because I was really looking for his motivation.

I still see potential scum motivations, but my thoughts on those motivations will almost certainly change based on the flips before we get to a wall vote anyways, so no reason to waste thread spaced debating those as of now.

I had unwnd as a town lean Day 1, so Dunn still has an uphill battle imo
In post 1715, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1623, catboi wrote:
In post 1422, Something_Smart wrote:Gate last still feels like common sense to me. If we win the Gate, we likely win the game, and I have very little faith in us winning Wall.
Wait, weren't you saying you think unwnd is scum? And now both Lukewarm and Dunn FOS him? Why would you say you have little faith in us winning there?

Is this a perspective slip?
It is really frustrating reading through the thread, and seeing people repeatedly incorrectly state my reads in the wall when I feel like I have been pretty open about them


Like I have consistently had you as "more likely to be town then Dunn" since like halfway through Day 1, and I cannot figure out why you have repeatedly, and consistently said I have it the other way around, despite me trying to tell you that you were wrong multiple times.

If anything, you doing so is the thing that is making me less sure about my town read on you. Because you doing this is making me feel the same way you made me feel in the newbie game. It is hard to pinpoint how they are the same, but it feels the same. Like you are trying to make me double down.

In that game you took the incomprehensible to me stance of "absinthe is town" (not incomprehensible that they were town, but incomprehensible that you could think that they are town), which put me into the position of saying over and over again that Absinthe must be scum from your PoV, and kept me in the "explaining why absinthe is scum" mindset.

And now in this game, you keep taking the stance "luke thinks I am scum", which puts me into the position of saying over and over against that I have you as my townread.

You literally just witnessed me tunnel on Absinthe in our last game, and so this game I am making a effort to not tunnel and think more about both options. Why would you be surprised that I am trying to take more care on deciding before I lock in on a scum push on either one of you?
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Post Post #1774 (isolation #123) » Fri May 14, 2021 6:40 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1767, unwnd wrote:
In post 1765, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1758, unwnd wrote:I'm pretty sure absin is gonna ask you where your solve is in the wall I'm just trying to help you out bud
Well Lukewarm has become more town, at least
Great so you don't care the whole game just decided I'm scum as if it were a fucking epiphany
Also, I am confused by your reaction here as well. Why do you take "lukewarm has become more town" to mean he thinks you are scum? From your PoV, we should be be able to be town, right?

He even comes back and says
In post 1768, Something_Smart wrote:I think Dunn-scum is probably more likely
Why do you keep assuming people are scum reading you?
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Post Post #1777 (isolation #124) » Fri May 14, 2021 6:46 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@Absinthe, I had some thoughts before the Briar flip about the Wall and Gate solves, in a "If x is scum at the wall, then y is scum at the gate" and vice versa, but all of that thinking was built around Infinity being scum. I am now quite unsure about the gate.

Please, for the love of God, let us resolve the Wall before the Gate. Because I do not want to have to cast my vote after you have left the thread, so you can tell me if I end up tunneling again.
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Post Post #1781 (isolation #125) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:20 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Absinthe, I am thinking that something_smart and unwnd are the same alignment and that Dunn and Catboi are the same alignment.

I am less sure which is the scum pair and which is the town pair tho.
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Post Post #1783 (isolation #126) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:30 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1782, absinthe wrote:Can you explain why you think the two pairs are the same alignment?
If I do, unwnd will be mad at me :oops: :oops:

Spoiler:
I am going to type it up anyways, give me a min
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #127) » Fri May 14, 2021 8:09 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Basically, the scum team wanted to win the Keep. Like that is the hardest mini game to win, but the moment Ana locked herself in to the keep and declared she would vote for Briar, they suddenly had a chance to win the keep :shakes fists at Ana: But only if they managed to get a 1:1:1 split. So, from that point on, I believe that the top scum strategy would be to make that happen, win the keep, and up their chance at winning by a lot. Now they only have to win 1 game out of the Wall/Gate instead of needed to win both.

So I looked back at the end of day 1, now knowing the alignments of You, Me, Briar, Ana, and Infinity, to see how they could be trying to make that happen.

And these two moves made by S_S and Dunn caught my eye:
In post 986, Something_Smart wrote:So are we trying to avoid doubling scum up at the Gate? Because that gives them a lot of choices for who the IC is?

If so, then I think I'd like Infinity at the Wall.
In post 994, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Wall
So the arrangement is currently at:
Keep: Briar, Ana, Absinthe
Wall: Unwnd, Luke, [Open]
Gate: Catboi, [Open], [Open]

Something_Smart suggested that Infinity take the Wall, and Dunn responds by locking himself into the wall.

These are the possible scum team combinations given the information that we have.
[Dunn, S_S] / [Dunn, Catboi] / [unwnd/ S_S] / [unwnd / catboi]


[Dunn, S_S]

If Dunn is S_S's partner, then S_S suggesting Infinity take the Wall is a pretty bad play.
If Infinity sees that message, agrees and votes herself into the wall, then the scum team is now looking at a 1(keep):2(gate):0(wall). They must move someone from the gate to the wall, and the keep stays Briar;Ana;Absinthe and they throw their keep auto-win away. So [dunn, S_S] seems unlikely

[unwnd, S_S]

If Unwnd is S_S partner on the other hand, then this is good.
All he cares about is not ended up at the wall himself. He gets a 1:1:1 split if Infinity puts herself there OR if Dunn puts himself there to stop his suggestion. So this makes sense if the scum teams goal at that time was a 1:1:1 split.

[Dunn, catboi]

Dunn has to make sure he ends up at the wall, because catboi is already locked in to the keep. If he does not end up at the wall. So if he sees that the Wall is down to only 1 slot left, and S_S has suggested Infinity takes it, then he has to quick lock into the wall if the scum team has a shot at the 1:1:1 arrangement

[unwnd / catboi]

I am glad you asked me to type this up, because I guess I cant rule this one out...
For some reason I thought catboi locked himself in earlier, but he locked himself in after Ana did. So that could have been when he was assuring they got the 1:1:1 split. This would mean that all 3 scum locked in super early tho, which is pretty ballsy imo


So I take back my earlier confidence. I have actually just ruled out [Dunn, S_S] as a scum team, but not as a pair of townies
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Post Post #1788 (isolation #128) » Fri May 14, 2021 8:50 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1786, absinthe wrote:I guess my question is why scum-Dunn would wait until almost too late to lock into the Wall.
I mean, he voted into the wall immediately after I voted into the wall. He made no other posts between my vote and his.

So he waited and chatted when there were 2 slots in each. Once there was only 1 slot left, his next post was an empty vote.

But I do get your point that he probably could have gone to the wall sooner
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Post Post #1796 (isolation #129) » Fri May 14, 2021 11:31 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Spoiler:
In post 169, catboi wrote:
In post 57, Briar wrote:Okay, everyone cool with it? Cool.

VOTE: Keep

Let's get this.
WHY
In post 175, catboi wrote:
In post 172, Briar wrote:
In post 169, catboi wrote:
In post 57, Briar wrote:Okay, everyone cool with it? Cool.

VOTE: Keep

Let's get this.
WHY
I'm town!
Do you assume you're going to be townread enough to be voted there? I don't understand the mindset.


Absinthe, do you think that scum! catboi would call out Briar for locking herself into the Keep? Like if Briar's goal was lock into town, then get town read hard enough to win it anyways, would her partner make it seem suspicious that she locked in early?
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Post Post #1857 (isolation #130) » Fri May 14, 2021 1:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1852, absinthe wrote:
Spoiler: Luke
Do you remember how frazzled, out of sorts, contradictory and volatile my stances were during the last 48 hours of the Newbie Day 2?
Spoiler: Absinthe
Yeah. Do you remember how overwhelmed I was by the end of the last day of the Newbie game? Thats kinda where I am again. Like, I get caught up on the thread, but before I can really process, there are 2 more pages of posts. Rinse and repeat.

and it doesn't help that I think I am in too many games atm. I decided to try playing 2 games at once, but then another newbie asked me specifically to join a game with them because they were afraid of leaving the newbie queue for the first time without someone they had played with before, and I didnot want to be the reason they disappeared from the site, so now I am in 3 games and they all keep moving, and I'm just like aaaaaaaaaa
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Post Post #1881 (isolation #131) » Fri May 14, 2021 2:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1869, absinthe wrote:
In post 1857, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1852, absinthe wrote:
Spoiler: Luke
Do you remember how frazzled, out of sorts, contradictory and volatile my stances were during the last 48 hours of the Newbie Day 2?
Spoiler: Absinthe
Yeah. Do you remember how overwhelmed I was by the end of the last day of the Newbie game? Thats kinda where I am again. Like, I get caught up on the thread, but before I can really process, there are 2 more pages of posts. Rinse and repeat.

and it doesn't help that I think I am in too many games atm. I decided to try playing 2 games at once, but then another newbie asked me specifically to join a game with them because they were afraid of leaving the newbie queue for the first time without someone they had played with before, and I didnot want to be the reason they disappeared from the site, so now I am in 3 games and they all keep moving, and I'm just like aaaaaaaaaa
Spoiler: Luke
This game moves in fits and starts. Hopefully you're not feeling like you need to address every single thing this time.

I used to play a lot of games simultaneously. it can be done. and night phases are a nice break! (don't sign up for another game just because things go slack for a couple of days, though!)

I wanted to point up this: I'm kinda getting a similar vibe from unwnd to how I felt like my posts were coming off in that newbie game.
Spoiler: Absinthe
I lowkey love this little side conversation we are having while they are arguing around us. Like we are just writing letters back and forth to one another lol

But yeah, I get that same energy too. Like in that game you felt like you were showing up to fight an uphill battle, because your slot was being hard accused of being scum before you ever even entered the game (and then
someone
was tunneling you the whole time) :oops: :oops: . And like, I get that same energy from Unwnd this game.
But honestly, it really confuses me because from his pov, he should feel like he is going to win our mini game if I am townreading him, but it feels like he is constantly approaching the conversation as thought he is in this giant uphill battle, despite me having stated that I was leaning more towards him being town over Dunn. Like I am finding it hard to get into his head for why he would be feeling the way that he is given the game state. Especially so when we all assumed we were winning the Keep
And not being able to get into his head is the only reason I have started doubting my TR on him.
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Post Post #1889 (isolation #132) » Fri May 14, 2021 2:53 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1883, unwnd wrote:
In post 1881, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1869, absinthe wrote:
In post 1857, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1852, absinthe wrote:
Spoiler: Luke
Do you remember how frazzled, out of sorts, contradictory and volatile my stances were during the last 48 hours of the Newbie Day 2?
Spoiler: Absinthe
Yeah. Do you remember how overwhelmed I was by the end of the last day of the Newbie game? Thats kinda where I am again. Like, I get caught up on the thread, but before I can really process, there are 2 more pages of posts. Rinse and repeat.

and it doesn't help that I think I am in too many games atm. I decided to try playing 2 games at once, but then another newbie asked me specifically to join a game with them because they were afraid of leaving the newbie queue for the first time without someone they had played with before, and I didnot want to be the reason they disappeared from the site, so now I am in 3 games and they all keep moving, and I'm just like aaaaaaaaaa
Spoiler: Luke
This game moves in fits and starts. Hopefully you're not feeling like you need to address every single thing this time.

I used to play a lot of games simultaneously. it can be done. and night phases are a nice break! (don't sign up for another game just because things go slack for a couple of days, though!)

I wanted to point up this: I'm kinda getting a similar vibe from unwnd to how I felt like my posts were coming off in that newbie game.
Spoiler: Absinthe
I lowkey love this little side conversation we are having while they are arguing around us. Like we are just writing letters back and forth to one another lol

But yeah, I get that same energy too. Like in that game you felt like you were showing up to fight an uphill battle, because your slot was being hard accused of being scum before you ever even entered the game (and then
someone
was tunneling you the whole time) :oops: :oops: . And like, I get that same energy from Unwnd this game.
But honestly, it really confuses me because from his pov, he should feel like he is going to win our mini game if I am townreading him, but it feels like he is constantly approaching the conversation as thought he is in this giant uphill battle, despite me having stated that I was leaning more towards him being town over Dunn. Like I am finding it hard to get into his head for why he would be feeling the way that he is given the game state. Especially so when we all assumed we were winning the Keep
And not being able to get into his head is the only reason I have started doubting my TR on him.
What is there you want me to ask? Outside of why I was worried you were scumreading me

Just ignore it, I know it sounds difficult but do it

I want to reset
I guess I am just confused by the way you handled the Day, prior to the Keep flip.

Like, everyone assumed we were winning the Keep (turns out I mean everyone, town and scum :dead: )

So I feel like from your PoV, the goal should be "we just need to win one more." So hopefully we win the wall, sure, but I feel like an equally valid strategy was for you to solve the gate. But then it seemed like you were avoiding it.

And like, you seemed particularly bothered by both Catboi and S_S scum reading you
In post 1218, unwnd wrote: For both of you to think I'm scum it basically becomes 'oh great, I have to appeal to someone who is just trying to get me killed and someone who just misunderstands me' lol
And its like. No... you actually don't. The only person from the Gate you need to listen to you is Absinthe. Catboi and S_S are crossvoting, and absinthe is hammering 100% of the time. And the only person you really need to convince at the Wall is me, becuase it seems like we are heading towards the two of you cross-voting and me being the hammer on the Wall. Win or lose, their read on you does not matter AT ALL.

And it just feels like, if you are town, then you should have been focused on working with me and absinthe, but you weren't. Absinthe had to ask you multiple times to help her solve the Gate, and Ana also told you multiple times that you should focus on solving the game, and then you finally said you were going to, and then you came out with . It is 5 paragraph's long, and like less then 1 of those paragraphs was actually trying to solve the Gate.


And you had so many posts in Day 2 before you spit that out. Like looking at your Iso numbers, that was your post 256, and actually your 110th post since the start of Day 2.

So from my PoV, town!Unwnd should have been thinking you your goals were to work with Absinthe to solve the gate and to convince Luke (maybe Dunn if you thought I was scum) that you are town. And if you could acomplish either of those, then you win! But then you spent 109 posts that don't feel like you are working towards either goal.

I am just trying to figure out your head space during those 100+ posts.
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Post Post #1892 (isolation #133) » Fri May 14, 2021 3:02 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1891, unwnd wrote:How does their read not matter? I want to engage them to
help
absin. That's the whole point of this exercise. Taking a selfish stance and being like 'oh well I don't have to worry about this' is simply untrue
Like, I understand that them town reading you would make it easier. But reading through your iso 146 - 256, it justs, like there are SO many posts, but none of them feel like you are solving the Gate OR like you are trying to convince me you are town. Which is what I expected to see from you given the game state.
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Post Post #1894 (isolation #134) » Fri May 14, 2021 3:18 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1893, unwnd wrote:And let me just say that you're really not understand what I have to deal with.

Both Catboi/S_S have pretty much shut me down in most attempts, and S_S especially has said 'I don't care what your read is on me'. Tell me Luke: What's the best way to read someone? Is it sitting on your own laurels and assuming you can get in someone's head and figuring out what they're thinking? Or is it approaching them, asking questions, and trying to understand. I simply cannot be a mind reader and I did not feel like I was helping Absin by sitting there and taking the same approach S_S was. I don't know what about that is so hard to understand, or how approaching them is..working against wanting to win?
I feel like I am doing a bad job of explaining myself... Like it was not that you were upset that they were scumreading you, it is that that seemed to take up all of your posts. There were 100 straight posts of frustration at being scum read by catboi and ss + posts about being frustrated that I was considering Dunn + posts chatting with Birar and Ana about things that simply did not serve to help the town win.

I town read you all of Day 1, but then I flip to the Day 2 and suddenly the first 100+ posts of your iso does not feel like the iso of someone helping to solve either minigame. Instead, all I saw was a lot of posts about how you were being put into a position to where you can't solve.

And you had things you could have done.

Like, talking to me more. You put so many posts out there talking ABOUT me, but none of your posts felt like you were talking TO me - the single most important person you should be trying to convince you are town.

And sure you might be hitting a road block asking catboi/ss questions directly, but absinthe was right there ASKING for your input. Couldn't you have given her some of the things you were thinking about, and then she could have asked. They could not really ignore her.

It just did not feel like you were trying to work with me and Absinthe. The people you should most be trying to work with.

And I cannot figure out if this is because you were scum and therefore trying to make lots of content without solving the gate, because you correctly solving the gate before you knew how Infinity was going to vote could be dangerous.

Spoiler:
And at first Infinity could have made the scum team worried about thier keep win with
In post 1319, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1041, Dunnstral wrote:Infinity is confirmed scum because absinthe is confirmed town at the keep
Scum can swap town with town if there's 1 scum in each group.

I don't know if I have much agency here, I think briar is probably the scum because ana promised to vote for the other in this group but yeah.
Oh Infinity, you were so close


Or if you really were in such a defeatist mindset for some reason I don't understand.
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Post Post #1895 (isolation #135) » Fri May 14, 2021 3:20 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

This is just what I have been thinking about your slot recently. I am not 100% sure where to go with my thoughts, but hopefully Absinthe can help me here
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Post Post #1899 (isolation #136) » Fri May 14, 2021 4:40 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

@absinthe.

Can you do me a favor? I want you to look over Unwnd's iso, with a specific thing in mind.

Scum!unwnd's choices are heavily influenced by Infinity's decision. If Infinity votes Briar, then scum!unwnd can push for the correct solve for Gate. Which would both be easier to build a case for, and would give him towncred if he gets to say "I told you so" if we flipped the Gate first. On the other hand if Infinity votes Ana, then he absolutely cannot build a case against the scum in the other minigame. Because that would lead to a scum lose if the Gate flips first

So basically, will you look over unwnd's iso, starting at . and tell me if you get the feeling that unwnd is actively trying to solve the gate, or if it feels like he is trying to stay active but delay solving until he knows where Infinity is leaning. Again, this only matters in how unwnd is interacting with the GATE. His solve on the Wall would be independent of how things go with Infinity.


Here is a timeline of where Infinity was at throughout the thread
Post - Infinity says she thinks that Briar is the scum
Post - Infinity is still trying to decide, wants to hear from both
Post - Infinity says she thinks Ana is scum
Post - Infinity makes it clear that she is committed to Briar being town

I am worried that if I keep looking over it, I am going to confirmation bias myself. So hopefully you can give it a fresh pair of eyes.

Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.
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Post Post #1900 (isolation #137) » Fri May 14, 2021 4:41 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1899, Lukewarm wrote:Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.
I think I am going to look at all 4 of them with this time line on infinity in mind.
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Post Post #1904 (isolation #138) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1901, unwnd wrote:
In post 1899, Lukewarm wrote:@absinthe.

Can you do me a favor? I want you to look over Unwnd's iso, with a specific thing in mind.

Scum!unwnd's choices are heavily influenced by Infinity's decision. If Infinity votes Briar, then scum!unwnd can push for the correct solve for Gate. Which would both be easier to build a case for, and would give him towncred if he gets to say "I told you so" if we flipped the Gate first. On the other hand if Infinity votes Ana, then he absolutely cannot build a case against the scum in the other minigame. Because that would lead to a scum lose if the Gate flips first

So basically, will you look over unwnd's iso, starting at . and tell me if you get the feeling that unwnd is actively trying to solve the gate, or if it feels like he is trying to stay active but delay solving until he knows where Infinity is leaning. Again, this only matters in how unwnd is interacting with the GATE. His solve on the Wall would be independent of how things go with Infinity.


Here is a timeline of where Infinity was at throughout the thread
Post - Infinity says she thinks that Briar is the scum
Post - Infinity is still trying to decide, wants to hear from both
Post - Infinity says she thinks Ana is scum
Post - Infinity makes it clear that she is committed to Briar being town

I am worried that if I keep looking over it, I am going to confirmation bias myself. So hopefully you can give it a fresh pair of eyes.

Interestingly, this idea would apply to all of the potential scum players. Their options of how to solve the other minigame would be a lot more limited if they are still worried Infinity might vote Ana.
I...don't understand what you're trying to prove. I thought Infinity was scum? I don't need to wait on her. Ana said she was going to vote Briar no matter what, so my disposition is that that minigame was genuinely out of my hands.
My point is that scum can interact differently across the minigames once they know that the keep is won then they can when the keep might still be lost.

Once infinity showed up in the thread, she requested that she be able to vote first in the keep, and Ana agreed
In post 1333, Anastasia wrote:besides you don't actually need to convince either of us that the other is scum,

you can just vote for whichever one of us you believe is town.

that person will self-vote so it doesn't really even matter for us.
In this moment, Ana admits that she will self-vote if Infinity votes for her, and the scum team now knows that Infinity's solve in the keep is really important on how they can handle the other mini-games.

My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.

I am currently isoing all 4 of you with this in mind. I am just asking absinthe to look over you for me specifically because I am having a hard time deciding if you are really doing that, or if I see you doing that because I have started out off put by the way you handled the day in general
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Post Post #1906 (isolation #139) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:21 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1903, absinthe wrote: I want to look at this with tomorrow's brain and tomorrow's eyes.

My tired brain thoughts are that town players probably weren't paying enough attention to infinity's posts at the time, assumed the Keep was solved and were focusing on the other minigames.
Yeah, town players were. But infinity's solve would make a big difference for scum players.

Here is a hypothetical to try and explain my point.

Imagine the scum team is [Briar,SS,Unwnd].

If Infinity votes Briar, then Unwnd can make a case bussing SS. If he we don't listen to him, he wins. If we do listen to him, then town wins the Gate, and he gets to say "see I told you guys to vote for SS" and then can try to win the Wall.

If Infinity votes Ana, then Unwnd can never make a case against SS. If we listen to him, then he loses the game on the spot.


So my question is, does it feel like Unwnd is trying to delay making a case against ss or catboi until he knows if the mafia has won the Keep.

Is that why it feels like there is 100+ posts coming from him that do not appear to be solving the Gate?

I am currently reading over all 4 of them to see if they appear affected by the way Infinity is leaning. But want you to look at unwnd for me
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Post Post #1909 (isolation #140) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:29 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1905, unwnd wrote:
In post 1904, Lukewarm wrote:My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.
That isn't true though, I was starting to lean S_S being scum and worked myself up into it based on what I read over the night and the way S_S was treating me.

Spoiler:
In post 1117, unwnd wrote:
In post 1114, Briar wrote:Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

Re: S_S town, I was recently there with you but not anymore
In post 1238, unwnd wrote:
In post 1237, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1198, unwnd wrote:I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting
So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here
I read Luke's mech as in over his head i
nstead of carefully placed like S_S would do it
In post 1250, unwnd wrote:
In post 1248, catboi wrote:
In post 1246, unwnd wrote:
In post 1242, unwnd wrote:Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread
Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information
But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here
I'd like to believe that yes? I've felt very detached from both of you however,
even when I
was
townreading S_S
Then here is me trying to piece it all together, with how I am reading my own minigame.
In post 1293, unwnd wrote:I just want to state that my initial TR of S_S is exclusive to what I think of him as a person. I townread his efforts thinking he was tinkering in his head to try and make a favorable outcome for town. I changed my mind on this however because I'm just going to assume the same thing I always do about mechanics: They're really fucking easy to talk about and require zero commitment. Dunn, you yourself admitted this and made the basis of your argument against Lukewarm based on (Mechanics). Okay? So why are you two going rounds about postulating theories and how the mechanics should work in your town!favor instead of the opposite. I'm not going to pay attention to it much further and I hope to god that is not what becomes the majority of conversation you will absolutely lose me if it is.

Let me state that I don't think all mechanic talk is bad. It's protown to consider how to use the setup to your advantage and line up potential good moves in accordance to it. However? I think that's passed.
Quoting you to fix the spoiler tag, so I can actually read this :dead: :dead:
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Post Post #1910 (isolation #141) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh. You did already lol
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Post Post #1911 (isolation #142) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Every time I read your iso, I get frustrated, and try to explain to myself why you were posting the way you were, and that ends up with me coming up with scum motivations. But then every time I read Dunn's iso, I also feel like they might be scum.

I think I am just not very good at this game :sob:
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Post Post #1913 (isolation #143) » Fri May 14, 2021 6:08 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1907, unwnd wrote:
In post 1905, unwnd wrote:
In post 1904, Lukewarm wrote:My suggestion is that you could have been trying to avoid stating your read between ss/catboi until you knew if the Keep was going to be won or lost. The way you interacted with the gate, was to ask how ss/catboi read you and then to spend a lot of time arguing with them over that. Without ever stating "Right now I think that it is ____" If anything, the first thing you did was walk back your Day 1 reads.
That isn't true though, I was starting to lean S_S being scum and worked myself up into it based on what I read over the night and the way S_S was treating me.

Spoiler:
In post 1117, unwnd wrote:
In post 1114, Briar wrote:Okay, Ana, hear me out...

I think that S_S might be town for how Infinity was pushing him versus catboi.

(I'm treating Infinity like she's flipped scum currently which, maybe is not the best method but it's the likely outcome here.)

Re: S_S town, I was recently there with you but not anymore
In post 1238, unwnd wrote:
In post 1237, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1198, unwnd wrote:I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting
So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here
I read Luke's mech as in over his head i
nstead of carefully placed like S_S would do it
In post 1250, unwnd wrote:
In post 1248, catboi wrote:
In post 1246, unwnd wrote:
In post 1242, unwnd wrote:Scum doesn't need to work with people, they just need to pretend their arguments and convictions are town-motivated. You both don't really gain anything from being considerate of my slot, therefore I'm going to give less valuable information compared to someone you had to at least fake townread
Therefore I'm going to get* less valuable information
But town should have a genuine interest in sorting you, right? Can you not try to distinguish that? You're confusing me here
I'd like to believe that yes? I've felt very detached from both of you however,
even when I
was
townreading S_S
Then here is me trying to piece it all together, with how I am reading my own minigame.
In post 1293, unwnd wrote:I just want to state that my initial TR of S_S is exclusive to what I think of him as a person. I townread his efforts thinking he was tinkering in his head to try and make a favorable outcome for town. I changed my mind on this however because I'm just going to assume the same thing I always do about mechanics: They're really fucking easy to talk about and require zero commitment. Dunn, you yourself admitted this and made the basis of your argument against Lukewarm based on (Mechanics). Okay? So why are you two going rounds about postulating theories and how the mechanics should work in your town!favor instead of the opposite. I'm not going to pay attention to it much further and I hope to god that is not what becomes the majority of conversation you will absolutely lose me if it is.

Let me state that I don't think all mechanic talk is bad. It's protown to consider how to use the setup to your advantage and line up potential good moves in accordance to it. However? I think that's passed.
Needed to fix.
I do not think that that is clear from your iso at all.

Like Day 1 you gave S_S a TR, and then started Day 2 by taking it back. And from there I never saw a post that felt like it was saying "I think SS is scum" or one that felt like it was saying "I think catboi is town" until .

Every other post felt more like "I gave a TR to S_S, but I take that back." And then a lot of posts about you still to solve the two of them, without committing to stating a read on either. - And that is what felt like you were just delaying taking a stance for so long.

But maybe I just misunderstood. I am curious if other people understood that you thought ss was scum and catboi was town before post 1645. I am going to wait to see what Absinthe says.

Tomorrow I promise I will point out the things that make me suspicious of Dunn, but for now I am heading to bed.
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Post Post #1947 (isolation #144) » Sat May 15, 2021 1:28 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Dunn, what changed your mind on the best order for us resolve the minigames?

Spoiler:
In post 1021, Dunnstral wrote: I think we resolve the
Keep
first. I strongly suspect that Infinity 324 flips scum. I wouldn't mind either Briar or Anastasia being the one chosen.
In post 1088, Dunnstral wrote:Personally, I'd rather we solved the Gate first
In post 1115, Dunnstral wrote: In my mind, I already know the deal with Keep and don't see a need to flip it right away. I'm looking at the Gate right now, and if it's a scum elim, do Keep next. If not, we can work on Wall
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Post Post #1950 (isolation #145) » Sat May 15, 2021 1:45 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1948, Dunnstral wrote:I thought about it some more and it made sense to me to keep the keep around so we had more people to talk to
What do you mean by more people to talk to?
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Post Post #1953 (isolation #146) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:26 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1951, unwnd wrote:Catboi, I don't know if you mentioned it but I looked back on the way votes went D1.

Which was

Me (The Wall) -> Briar (The Keep) -> Ana (The Keep) and then You (The Gate).

What was your reason to go into the gate if you were townreading Briar? Which I'm pretty sure you stated you were.
forgetting me. smh

Unwnd (The Wall) -> Briar (The Keep) -> Ana (The Keep) -> Luke (The Wall) -> Then Absinthe(The Gate)
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Post Post #1954 (isolation #147) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:29 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1952, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1950, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1948, Dunnstral wrote:I thought about it some more and it made sense to me to keep the keep around so we had more people to talk to
What do you mean by more people to talk to?
Having ana and briar to discuss the gate and wall with
But wouldn't doing the Gate first mean we lose Absinthe / SS / Catboi to talk about the wall?
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Post Post #1957 (isolation #148) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:35 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1955, unwnd wrote:My callout was a specific one Lukewarm, I was just thinking about the early votes
I specifically commented because someone else had it the other way around earlier as well

Spoiler:
In post 1196, Dunnstral wrote: Luke jumped to the wall right after absinthe jumped to the keep. Catboi was already at the gate.

Ignore me
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Post Post #1959 (isolation #149) » Sat May 15, 2021 4:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1958, absinthe wrote:Luke do you want to talk about your theory from last night?

I don't have any huge insights beyond what I said in my wall of quotes.
Not really. If you don't see it, then I guess I was reading more into it then was really there :/


I think part of the idea came to me from reading Ana's iso
Spoiler:
In post 1570, Anastasia wrote:I think unwnd cares too much about self-preservation at the wall and not enough about getting the 50:50 at the gate right and that feels like a scum mindset to me.
In post 1617, Anastasia wrote:I think a large part of why I scumread Unwnd is that I feel a lot of his play this game has been driven by a desire to preserve his own life rather than to adequately solve for the game.

And that's just a product of game design. If Keep is definitely won for the town, then Scum!Unwnd can't die at the wall, if he does then his team will lose the game and it will not matter how convincing the case he makes for the gate is, that case will not matter because the game is over.

For town!unwnd however, if he is the victim of a mis-elim at the wall, it still matters a great deal that he get the correct solution for the gate, because that solution can play a large part in determining whether the town wins or loses the game.

So when I see him fustrated with the game state and not really solving for the gate, I feel he's more likely scum than town as town!him has motivations that scum!him simply can't replicate if he feels his slot is doomed.


And then when I read through Unwnd's iso, I spotted somewhere that he quoted you as
Spoiler:
In post 1606, absinthe wrote:
In post 1603, unwnd wrote:
In post 1596, Briar wrote:I dunno, maybe it's because that's a part of why I'm scumreading you right now and I'm sensitive to it, but it just feels like you keep saying that you're feeling that kind of way as if to... make yourself seem real? IDK. I think the frustration is real but it's not because you're frustrated town but scum in this position instead, and you're portraying it like town frustration.

p-edit: I think it's honest but I think you might be framing it a certain way.
I feel what I feel regardless of alignment. I don't think you being cautious of my takes is something that frustrates me. I like your objectiveness in this area. It's like I've mentioned before--not being given an honest shot when it comes to my logic is what tilts me the most
Help me solve Gate?


And I was like, why is Absinthe having to ask Unwnd to be doing that? Shouldn't that be the thing he is most focused on doing, but then Absinthe had to ask him.

And so, it looks like at the time that the posts were made, both you and Ana appeared to think Unwnd was not solving the Gate.

So then I read through Unwnd's iso specifically looking for it, and maybe I confirmation biased my self into it?

It just really felt to me like there was very little productivity within the sheer number of posts that he put up...
But if you don't see it :dead:
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Post Post #1960 (isolation #150) » Sat May 15, 2021 4:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Please ignore for solving purposes, but when looking for the quotes for my last post, I found this gem:

Spoiler:
In post 1371, Anastasia wrote:
In post 1369, unwnd wrote:She's literally pocketed me twice

I have scars
I've never been pocketed by her, I want at least one time.
Ana got their wish :lol: :lol:
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Post Post #1979 (isolation #151) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:10 am

Post by Lukewarm »

@Absinthe, how long do you want to leave yourself to solve the Gate, post Wall flip?

Trying to get a Wall deadline in my head
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Post Post #1983 (isolation #152) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:28 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1980, absinthe wrote:
In post 1979, Lukewarm wrote:@Absinthe, how long do you want to leave yourself to solve the Gate, post Wall flip?

Trying to get a Wall deadline in my head
A couple days at minimum? Enough to think about the Wall results if we don't lose immediately. Getting the Wall right is critical.
Is there anything you want me to get fresh eyes on?

Like I want to be helpful, but I am feeling a little lost on how to help you. Like both decisions are mostly going to fall on you, so I want to help you figure them out, but then I also feel like the things I bring up as suspicious, you don't agree with, so like, am I helping or really just distracting you?
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Post Post #1987 (isolation #153) » Sun May 16, 2021 8:38 am

Post by Lukewarm »

If you think that Unwnd's posts for the first half of the day were coming from sleep deprivation / frustration, then I am back to thinking it was Dunn.
In post 1298, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1288, Dunnstral wrote:The problem is that Luke is right but they're arguing that it's suboptimal, not that it's scum motivated

Because if I'm scum, and infinity is also scum, and s_s wants infinity at the wall, then there's no problem with that unless you think I got spooked for a different reason, which sn all town at the wall (though from your pov there should be doubt about me being in that position as scum in the first place)
There was another reason I thought Scum!dunn might have done it, but there is not point in going over it (might make unwnd angry :lol: ) and the thought will actually resolve itself after the other minigames are revealed anyways.
At the time, I was thinking "maybe scum!Dunn got spooked because he wanted to ensure a 1:1:1 split" But then I did not press it because that would only make sense if Infinity was town. So I said the idea would probably resolve its once the keep was flipped.

I also did not like his transition from saying "lets solve the keep first" to "lets solve the keep last." Because the reality of the situation is that that would have been very, very bad for town, but good for scum!dunn (I will concede that town did not know it would be bad for town at the time). But, like a lot of his defenses early on during the day revolved around "well I can't be scum with Infinity, and therefore I cannot be scum." So scum!dunn would have benefited a lot from infinity remaining the assumed scum for as long as possible.

I also did not like the transition on his read on me

Spoiler:
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
In post 1235, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1178, absinthe wrote:
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.
All Luke talks about is:

-Keep Mechanics
-My briar/ana read
-my mech talk about scum going into the keep and how that relates to my briar/ana read
In post 1240, Dunnstral wrote:I don't understand how everybody is looking at Luke write paragraphs on mech and thinking that they're either over their head or not a bold player

It seems obvious to me that they have some experience
In post 1285, Dunnstral wrote:Meanwhile I've changed my mind and I think Unwnd is scum in here now


He came into Day 2 with me as his scum solve, seemed suspicious of me only talking about mechanics / his comments from Day 1 regarding Ana/Briar. Then I started talking to him, and we talked about his comments from Day 1 and mechanics. Suddenly he TR me.

Even in the moment, I really did not understand why he would have switched

Spoiler:
In post 1287, Lukewarm wrote:Dunn, not to look a gift horse in the mouth or anything, but like, what changed your mind from

This:
spoiler=]
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
In post 1235, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1178, absinthe wrote:
In post 1028, Dunnstral wrote:Anyways, last two scum are Lukewarm and catboi
I don't think Luke is scum. To me, the wall comes down to you or unwnd.
All Luke talks about is:

-Keep Mechanics
-My briar/ana read
-my mech talk about scum going into the keep and how that relates to my briar/ana read
In post 1237, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1198, unwnd wrote:I think I can see your worldview but I'm going to be honest

Thinking about mech in less conventional ways usually fucks with my head. I can work with reasoning being applied to mech but the reason I've retracted my read on S_S is that his content is almost all mech and I shouldn't just give it a pass because it sounds interesting
So you need to explain how you're ruling out Luke here
In post 1240, Dunnstral wrote:I don't understand how everybody is looking at Luke write paragraphs on mech and thinking that they're either over their head or not a bold player

It seems obvious to me that they have some experience
/spoiler]
to this:
In post 1285, Dunnstral wrote:Meanwhile I've changed my mind and I think Unwnd is scum in here now


And I was thinking, nothing that I have talked about should have convinced you that I am town if you were scum reading me for the reasons you said you were scum reading me. And so I was worried that he changed stances because my scum read on him was faltering. (and the IC stated they had a hard TR on me <3 so it would be harder to miselim me regardless)

You asked earlier why Dunn would have waited to put himself into the keep, and I think that he was not super pressured into doing it because Briar+Catboi were already locked into different zones, so there was no worry of them getting iced into a Day 1 loss. And the game state did not look like we were all locking in any time soon. I personally felt like we were not going to make any progress for a while. Then I locked in, you immediately locked in, then Dunn saw the arrangements moving forward, and he locked in too.

Like the game was stagnated with 5 open slots. He was in no rush to lock in. You and I locked in. He quick locks in.

His stated reason for quick locking was to keep Infnity from the Wall, and when he said it, it felt true. But now... that could be his true reason as town!dunn or as scum!dunn
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Post Post #1988 (isolation #154) » Sun May 16, 2021 8:45 am

Post by Lukewarm »

Big things being

His scum read to town read on me did not feel genuine

A lot of his defenses early on in the day required Infinity to be scum to make sense AND he was advocating we don't flip the Keep first (like the two combined are bad)

His quick lock in Day 1
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Post Post #1989 (isolation #155) » Sun May 16, 2021 8:52 am

Post by Lukewarm »

And putting myself in his shoes if he were town. During the Day 1 quick vote. He sees SS suggest Infinity goes to the wall, and he decides I need to stop that from happening. He votes, but does not say he is trying to stop SS from getting what he wanted or even just quote where S_S suggested Infinity go there? Or something? I do not like the 0 context surrounding his lock in.

But on the other hand, scum!dunn sees you and me both lock in, goes to scum chat and says "what do you guys think I should do" Briar says "lock into the Wall so we can guarantee the win at the Keep." He locks in with an otherwise empty post to give himself time to think of a townie reason.
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Post Post #2020 (isolation #156) » Sun May 16, 2021 2:25 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1997, unwnd wrote:Luke, I'm pretty sure you're town. There is some doubts in some places but I'd be very impressed if you were scum here. I do note one behavior however and that's within your analysis you don't really come to a proper conclusion. Even your recent posts about you leaning back on Dunn, it sort of just ends. Your thought goes full circle and you pretty much say 'I can see town!dunn and scum!dunn doing this'. It begs the question why you wrote that all up and went through the trouble just to not formulate an endpoint. It's fine to give heady analysis and think about both perspectives, I do it all the time. That isn't my problem here, rather I just wonder what's stopping you from your own commitments. I remember your conviction being much stronger in the last time, but I am also aware that you are being more cautious after being wrong on ffery. I don't want to make that a proper excuse for you however.
I made a conclusion on my posts, but I left it at the top -
In post 1987, Lukewarm wrote:If you think that Unwnd's posts for the first half of the day were coming from sleep deprivation / frustration, then I am back to thinking it was Dunn.
I listed a lot of reasons I thought he could be scum. Then the one thing you are pointing out there at the end. Like, I was giving Dunn some townie points because when he said that he jumped in to block Infinity it felt genuine. But now he does not deserve those townie points, because it could be genuine from either alignment.

So, I listed a lot of reasons I scum read him, and explained that he lost the thing that was giving him townie points.

Maybe the post was sub-optimally structured.
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Post Post #2022 (isolation #157) » Sun May 16, 2021 2:27 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1997, unwnd wrote:Who do you lean when it comes to Catboi/S_S and why
I currently think it is catboi. I thought I mentioned it in my post on Dunn, but maybe I forgot. I plan on making a case when I get some proper time to work on it.
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Post Post #2026 (isolation #158) » Sun May 16, 2021 2:36 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

[quote="In post 2006, catboi"][/quote]
There is a lot to think about here... I am retractinb my catboi solve answer and gonna have another think :dead:
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Post Post #2030 (isolation #159) » Sun May 16, 2021 2:39 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2013, absinthe wrote:
In post 2009, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2008, unwnd wrote:I don't think you've actually seen me in a XYLO as town but this is very close to my behavior
:shifty:
?
I think that Dunn was pointing out a potential slip.

This game should exactly be his behavior in a XYLO as town, not close to it. To which unwnd responded
In post 2012, unwnd wrote:I say very close because I have thrown my own dignified behavior for exhaustive and continual presence

Call it impulsive lol
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Post Post #2039 (isolation #160) » Sun May 16, 2021 3:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2038, catboi wrote:I'm glad we didn't end up in the same spot because I cannot deal with you misreading me again
I've walked it back.

I think my main issue is that I don't see SS and Dunn as partners. So if my solve in the Wall is Dunn, then that makes you the scum in the keep... Plus I typed that before I read your recent long post.
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Post Post #2043 (isolation #161) » Sun May 16, 2021 4:14 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2042, catboi wrote:Checked again, there were some vague hints of something_smart and unwnd being partnery but not much else, no anti-alignments that I was able to spot.
It is mostly end of Day 1 stuff.

Spoiler:
In post 986, Something_Smart wrote:So are we trying to avoid doubling scum up at the Gate? Because that gives them a lot of choices for who the IC is?

If so, then I think I'd like Infinity at the Wall.
In post 994, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Wall


If they are scum partners SS risked losing the Keep by suggesting Infinity go to the Wall. If infinity saw that, and placed herself there, then the scum team of [ss,dunn,brair] could not swap at the keep, so Briar.Ana,Absinthe would have all stayed, and blown everyone's mind, and ruined their almost guaranteed win at the Keep.

This does not stop either one of them from being scum independently, but it makes it hard for me to see them as both being partnered with Briar.

Spoiler:
scum!SS could be avoiding the wall, and not really care which of Dunn/Infinity go to the wall, which would be partnered with Unwnd
Or scum!Dunn could see town!ss suggesting Infnity go to the wall, and needed to prevent that, which would be partnered with you.



Gun to my head, I made the choice right now, I think I would vote the scum team as Unwnd;S_S, but Absinthe has made me question my read on unwnd.... And if it is not Unwnd, then it is Dunn. And I don't see dunn as partners with SS+Briar

:dead: :dead:

So this is my real stance:


I think the partners are either [unwnd+S_S] or they are [dunn+catboi]. If I had to choose, I would go for [unwnd+S+S], but if absinthe gives unwnd a TR, then I would swap the whole pair.
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Post Post #2049 (isolation #162) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:21 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2046, unwnd wrote:Lukewarm, I don't think you should put the cart before the horse. I'm town here and I don't know how many times I need to say that.

You just got out of a game where I won as scum, does it feel the same? Mind you I am capable of switching things up, but there is simply not a 'oh oops sorry unwnd' in this life.
I am actually scum reading you for the things that feel the same lol. Last time, it left me confused. This time I was taking it as a scum sign for you.

Plus, I have almost gotten the feeling that before Day 2 started, you assumed you had this minigame in the bag, because you expected me to tunnel on Dunn the whole day, and then you got frustrated that I did not do that.


If you want me to be more confident in my read, then I am saying I think it is you. I only fell back to accusing Dunn in was because Absinthe made me second guess myself.

Absinthe, if you tell me to vote for Dunn, I will, but it will be under protest.
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Post Post #2052 (isolation #163) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:30 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2048, unwnd wrote:My question to you is why would Scum!SS avoid the wall.
To answer pointedly. Because they needed a 1:1:1 split to automatically win the Keep.

The entire lobby followed blindly into Briar's keep win BECAUSE absinthe swapped with Infinity. If the scum team did not have a 1:1:1 split, then the Keep would have stayed Briar, Ana, Absinthe and we would have know that 1 of our strong town reads were wrong. Absinthe would have know for a fact that there was a scum between Briar and Ana, and was in a much stronger position to be believed over Infinity.

I personally would have advocated everyone vote for Ana in that situation, which I think I made clear Day 1.

Spoiler:
Maybe I am inflating this in my own head, but imo, the scum team got an automatic win at the keep with a 1:1:1 split, and I think town would have won the keep if the scum team had a 1:2:0 split. So if I were scum, achieving a 1:1:1 split would have been super important to me the moment Ana locked into the Keep.

And I could see SS OR Dunn's play coming from a Scum player trying to insure a 1:1:1 split
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Post Post #2056 (isolation #164) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:35 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2047, absinthe wrote:I'm scumreading Dunn and S_S.

It's not a teamsolve. I guess I need to think on that.
I am scum reading Unwnd and S_S.

Maybe we should actually do the Gate first if we are both leaning S_S there. Then you and catboi can leave your best case for the scum in the Gate, and I can use both of those cases to make the final choice? It will be easier for me to listen to catboi once he is confirmed town lmao
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Post Post #2064 (isolation #165) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2054, absinthe wrote:
In post 2049, Lukewarm wrote:Plus, I have almost gotten the feeling that before Day 2 started, you assumed you had this minigame in the bag, because you expected me to tunnel on Dunn the whole day, and then you got frustrated that I did not do that.
Was this an impression you got from unwnd's day 2 posting? At what point did the frustration come to the fore in your opinion?
The thought started early on in Day 2 when I asked Dunn about his motivation for joining the Wall. Like, I was trying to ask why he quick-voted, and then Unwnd was mad about it. Unwnd's iso starting at felt like he was frustrated that I was trying to dig deeper into Dunn's motivation before I committed to a scum read. I even tried multiple times to explain that that is what I was trying to do
In post 1294, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1289, unwnd wrote:Please stop talking about the stupid fucking mechanics
I was not trying to talk mechanics... I was trying to talk about his motivation for locking into the wall. To see if I thought the decision was town motivated or scum motivated. Isn't that how you are supposed to play this game?

Before I talked to him, I could only come up with a scum motivation (which was based on mechanics), but once I talked to him, I decided that I can see a potential town motivation.

I have not decided on either of you yet, but I do feel like that was a productive conversation for us to have.
And he continued to be frustrated by that exchange. Like, why was he frustrated that I was trying to make an informed read on Dunn?


And then again just now,
In post 1997, unwnd wrote:That isn't my problem here, rather I just wonder what's stopping you from your own commitments. I remember your conviction being much stronger in the last time,
I am sitting here stating Dunn as my scum solve, and he is frustrated that I am not absolutely certain about it like I was last time.
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Post Post #2065 (isolation #166) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

And I got that general feeling between that, but those are the two times that stand out the most I guess.
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Post Post #2068 (isolation #167) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:54 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2053, unwnd wrote:Lukewarm buddy

That literally doesn't follow reality. It's complete fiction. Scum won the Keep and swapped Absin because Ana/Briar were always going to be in it and Ana was saying
that she would vote for Briar no matter what.
Please ground yourself more instead of just assuming
I am grounding myself in exactly what I thought at the end of Day 1. If the keep does not swap, I am going to argue against Briar being the vote. Maybe I would have lost that argument, but I would have argued it.

I guess I am stating how I would have responded as how the thread would have responded as a whole....

I was not 100% sold on Briar until the moment absinthe swapped with infinity. So in my mind the absinthe infinity swap is what solidified the keep win, and so that was necessary. But I guess it does seem likely that I would have argued against voting for Briar, and then lost the argument :dead:
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Post Post #2071 (isolation #168) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:01 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2066, unwnd wrote:
I am scum reading Unwnd and S_S.
I am sitting here stating Dunn as my scum solve,
???????????????????????????????????????????????????
At the time


Post 1987. I state my Dunn is my scum solve, and point out the things that I found scummy in 1987 / 1988 / 1989.
In post 1987, Lukewarm wrote:I am back to thinking it was Dunn.
Your response was to question me stating my reads with 100% certainly
In post 1997, unwnd wrote: It's fine to give heady analysis and think about both perspectives, I do it all the time. That isn't my problem here, rather I just wonder what's stopping you from your own commitments. I remember your conviction being much stronger in the last time

And it reminded me that I have had this feeling that you expected me to tunnel Dunn all day today
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Post Post #2072 (isolation #169) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:02 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2071, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2066, unwnd wrote:
I am scum reading Unwnd and S_S.
I am sitting here stating Dunn as my scum solve,
???????????????????????????????????????????????????
At the time


Post 1987. I state my Dunn is my scum solve, and point out the things that I found scummy in 1987 / 1988 / 1989.
In post 1987, Lukewarm wrote:I am back to thinking it was Dunn.
Your response was to question me stating my reads
without
100% certainly
In post 1997, unwnd wrote: It's fine to give heady analysis and think about both perspectives, I do it all the time. That isn't my problem here, rather I just wonder what's stopping you from your own commitments. I remember your conviction being much stronger in the last time

And it reminded me that I have had this feeling that you expected me to tunnel Dunn all day today
Edit
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Post Post #2074 (isolation #170) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I just typed out a long response, and then deleted it because I think everyone else is not going to like my thinking. And it is like, when I approach it from a mechanics angle, everyone says that that is bad, and I shouldn't focus on that.

So then I try and talk about the vibe I get form Unwnd's posts. And apparently that is not the right way to approach it either...

Maybe I really am just bad at this game, and am looking at all the wrong things.

VOTE: Dunn
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Post Post #2079 (isolation #171) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:43 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Scum!unwnd has a particular ability to make me not want to be in a game anymore.

When I was typing my vote post up, I was on the fence between voting or replacing out... decided not to force a replacement to deal with 83 pages of catch-up.

That is the exact same feeling I had in the first game once you replaced in.

I keep trying to say that your slot felt the same in both games.
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Post Post #2084 (isolation #172) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:46 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2081, unwnd wrote:I'm a bitch to kill and I'm really sorry for that Lukewarm, I just do what I have to in order to win.

You had the right thought on me, and then I twisted it and made you uncomfortable. That being said, if I made you feel awful then I sincerely apologize and that is not my intent. I will work on better ways to argue as scum if that is the case.
The crazy thing is that nothing you did in either game really made me think you were town. I lost both games pretty sure you were scum to the end.
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Post Post #2087 (isolation #173) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:48 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2086, unwnd wrote:Yeah, I respect that

You logically thought I was scum (I was), but you emotionally felt responsible and overthought it

That was my hope
I wanted out of the game, but did not want to go out voting the opposite of how absinthe read the wall
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Post Post #2089 (isolation #174) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:52 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I want into the Mafia chat pretty bad atm
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Post Post #2093 (isolation #175) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:57 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Honestly, every time you interacted with me I was more and more sure you were scum. But then I just could not explain it to Absinthe. And Absinthe just not seeing it made me second guess myself.

I am counting this as a game where I was correctly able to identify the scum. Now I just have to work on explaining my reasonings in a way that can convince other people...
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Post Post #2094 (isolation #176) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:58 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2092, Something_Smart wrote:Did people like the setup overall? Do you have any suggestions for changes/improvements?
Over all, I think it was a really good set up. I kind of wish there was a proper night phase in between the minigames tho. Would have been nice for everyone to stop and react to the Keep flip, and then come in prepared for the discussion.
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Post Post #2096 (isolation #177) » Sun May 16, 2021 6:59 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2090, unwnd wrote:Town me looks at this game

Sees I'm spamming and not being helpful and shuts the fuck up

Scum me looks at this game

Sees I'm spamming and continues to do it because someone might townread it

It's something I'll readjust though
And that was one of the reasons I scum read you T-T

I correctly spotted a scum tell from you, but had a terrible time nailing you for it.
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Post Post #2099 (isolation #178) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:04 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I'm honestly kicking myself, because I was suspicious of Briar for most of Day 1. And then in Day 2, I decided I was going to tell infinity to vote for Ana, but then talked myself out of it. Once Briar revealed her Alt, Infinity seemed so sure, so I decided to stay out of it.
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Post Post #2101 (isolation #179) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:06 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Ana what is your main?
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Post Post #2103 (isolation #180) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:16 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2102, Anastasia wrote:I am so sorry for messing things up Luke.

Mea Maxima Culpa.
Don't worry about it. I think I can take the L for the wall, and you take the L for the keep, so we good :lol:
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Post Post #2105 (isolation #181) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:17 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

My :shakes fists at Ana: comments were always supposed to be a joke <3
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Post Post #2109 (isolation #182) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2104, unwnd wrote:To be fair, I think my scumteam is just really good and this wasn't going to be an easy game to win.
It is incredible frustrating to think that I had the right answer to both the Keep and to the Wall, but then we still lost both due to a combination of me being unable to convince other people and other people making me doubt myself
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Post Post #2110 (isolation #183) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:19 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2107, absinthe wrote:
In post 2104, unwnd wrote:To be fair, I think my scumteam is just really good and this wasn't going to be an easy game to win.
I agree. It's a really strong team.
100%
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Post Post #2113 (isolation #184) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:21 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2111, Anastasia wrote:I think everyone played very well and this was a thrilling game to be a part of.
What is your main?

Was I right when I said I thought you+Briar felt similar to 2 players I saw in the Divide and Conquer Neighborhood B?
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Post Post #2117 (isolation #185) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2098, unwnd wrote: I hope you stick around and I hope a game comes where you either fool the pants off me or nail me with such precision I can't possibly wriggle out!
You know, either of those would be great and all, but I think I would settle for a game where you and are are just both townies :lol:
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Post Post #2120 (isolation #186) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:25 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1319, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1041, Dunnstral wrote:Infinity is confirmed scum because absinthe is confirmed town at the keep
Scum can swap town with town if there's 1 scum in each group.

I don't know if I have much agency here, I think briar is probably the scum because ana promised to vote for the other in this group but yeah.
Yeah, you were so close Infinity.

This comment is part of the reason why I decided to just stay out of solving the Keep. That was 100% of my thinking, so if you already thought it, then I had nothing to add.
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Post Post #2121 (isolation #187) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:26 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2119, absinthe wrote:
In post 2114, Anastasia wrote:You fought your way out of the pressure I was applying to you brilliantly.
I think I deflected some of the pressure.

If I'd figured out who you are (assuming I'm right!) more quickly I don't think I would have gotten nearly so offended.
Absinthe what is your guess?
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Post Post #2129 (isolation #188) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Oh. I thought Day 1 Ana said she was going to reveal her main in the post game. But that might have actually been Briar
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Post Post #2131 (isolation #189) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:34 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2129, Lukewarm wrote:Oh. I thought Day 1 Ana said she was going to reveal her main in the post game. But that might have actually been Briar
That is why I did not think twice about asking
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Post Post #2133 (isolation #190) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:37 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2130, absinthe wrote:
In post 2127, unwnd wrote:I wonder how the game would've went if you never slipped like that, absin
I do too. Or even if I'd slipped later after establishing my direction.
I might not have put so much faith in your solve if you had not slipped to be honest
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Post Post #2134 (isolation #191) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:38 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2124, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 2120, Lukewarm wrote:This comment is part of the reason why I decided to just stay out of solving the Keep. That was 100% of my thinking, so if you already thought it, then I had nothing to add.
Yeah, ydrasse sowed the paranoia that ana would gambit perfectly. It wouldn't be too out-of-character, just a bad play.

If ana wants to reveal her main she can, I'm 99% sure I know who it is
This actually makes me more sure of my own guess (you were also in the older game I read lmao)

So if Ana does not want to reveal, then I am going to just assume I am right :lol: :lol:
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Post Post #2135 (isolation #192) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:41 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

@Unwnd, did you expect me to tunnel Dunn? Or did I make that read up in my head?
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Post Post #2138 (isolation #193) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:49 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Here is the comment that I typed up, then didn't sent

Spoiler:
This is what I am talking about. You have approached the day with the mindset that it is you vs me+Dunn the entire day, even though you should know that you have a teammate in that pair? Right? Even though you town read me, at no point in this day did I feel like you were trying to work with me.

I started the Day off with you as my stated TR. I started digging into Dunn's motivation for locking into the keep (expecting to find that he did not have a good town sided motivation because I thought he was scum), you were frustrated with that conversation.

Then you spent like so much of the day without trying to talk to me. You kept talking about me, stating my read incorrectly. I would respond. Then nothing.

And I finally reach the point where I am making a case against Dunn, and you still question me making that case, like why didn't I make the case stronger.

There has been no point in this day where I have felt like you were approaching me as if you thought we were on the same team.

But the way Dunn has interacted with me, has felt like the thought we might be on the same team.


And like, your top 2 goals of the day should have been working with Absinthe to solve the Gate and to work with me to convince me that you were town and dunn was scum.

If anything, you seemed way more focused on convincing everyone else that you were town. you started the day off by talking to catboi and the SS about their reads on you. You talked to Briar and Ana about their read on you ----


And then I stopped, and typed my vote comment.
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Post Post #2139 (isolation #194) » Sun May 16, 2021 7:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2137, absinthe wrote:
In post 2133, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 2130, absinthe wrote:
In post 2127, unwnd wrote:I wonder how the game would've went if you never slipped like that, absin
I do too. Or even if I'd slipped later after establishing my direction.
I might not have put so much faith in your solve if you had not slipped to be honest
I think the game would have played out differently as an unknown quantity, and you and I finding each other as town might have been a lot more difficult. unwnd would probably have approached my slot differently, which might not have gotten Anastasia's attention in the same way. S_S might not have set off alarms by reaching out to me so early, too.
Yeah. I know I would have approached your slot very differently. Multiply that by the 7 other players, it would have been a very different game
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Post Post #2140 (isolation #195) » Sun May 16, 2021 8:22 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2138, Lukewarm wrote:Here is the comment that I typed up, then didn't sent

Spoiler:
This is what I am talking about. You have approached the day with the mindset that it is you vs me+Dunn the entire day, even though you should know that you have a teammate in that pair? Right? Even though you town read me, at no point in this day did I feel like you were trying to work with me.

I started the Day off with you as my stated TR. I started digging into Dunn's motivation for locking into the keep (expecting to find that he did not have a good town sided motivation because I thought he was scum), you were frustrated with that conversation.

Then you spent like so much of the day without trying to talk to me. You kept talking about me, stating my read incorrectly. I would respond. Then nothing.

And I finally reach the point where I am making a case against Dunn, and you still question me making that case, like why didn't I make the case stronger.

There has been no point in this day where I have felt like you were approaching me as if you thought we were on the same team.

But the way Dunn has interacted with me, has felt like the thought we might be on the same team.


And like, your top 2 goals of the day should have been working with Absinthe to solve the Gate and to work with me to convince me that you were town and dunn was scum.

If anything, you seemed way more focused on convincing everyone else that you were town. you started the day off by talking to catboi and the SS about their reads on you. You talked to Briar and Ana about their read on you ----


And then I stopped, and typed my vote comment.
Like I knew that would not convince anyone, but I did not know how to change it to make it more persuasive. So I admitted defeat

Unwnd, what do you think I could have said there to convince Absinthe?
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Post Post #2142 (isolation #196) » Sun May 16, 2021 8:40 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Yeah, but like I would like to get to the point where I can convince other townies, especially confirmed townies.

This game in particular, I could have won without convincing Absinthe. But if we were in a more traditional set up, and were a 5 people XYLO, I 100% would have needed to convince the confirmed townie. And I would have failed at that.
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Post Post #2143 (isolation #197) » Sun May 16, 2021 9:33 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

@dunn I owe you an apology. Thought you were town, voted you anyways. Please forgive me T-T
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Post Post #2155 (isolation #198) » Mon May 17, 2021 1:20 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 2153, catboi wrote:
In post 2150, Marashu wrote:people who enjoy being in ELO.
Do such utterly depraved beings really exist?
I don't know how much I like being at Elo, but this is a nice set up to practice it. And also practice it without 100% of the thinking being on your shoulders. It was nice to be able to see how other people were all approaching Elo
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Post Post #2159 (isolation #199) » Mon May 17, 2021 1:23 am

Post by Lukewarm »

And Ydrasse, that was a master class in towntelling as scum. You somehow managed to pocket every single member of the town, which is mighty impressive.

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