Open 579: Pick Your (Chocolate) Power -- Game Over

[Mathdino]

VOTE: wgeurts

I wrote down the draft results of previous games before this even started and I calculated 5 or 7 as being best -_-

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: whoever

VOTE: Flubbernugget
"genuinely fucking pissed"
The 'genuinely' isn't really necessary if you're pissed, ya know.

[Mathdino]

I wouldn't put it past clever scum to double up and have the 3rd scum pick a separate number. It might be something I'd do out of audacity. Agree on everything else though.

I want to note however that there are definitely picks that scum would find very lucrative. Among them:
1-shot Vig
Roleblocker (just block everyone at the top of the draft)
Jailkeeper
Vengeful/Night3Vig

Since JK and RB are paired up with Tracker and Doc, not much alignment indicative in that. However, 1-shot Vig/1-shot PGO, along with Vengeful/Night3Vig are HIGHLY useful scum roles.

What this means is if you were near the top and you went for either of the above slots and you DIDN'T get them, there is likely scum above you. Be sure to factor this in.

[Mathdino]

Open 518, Jailkeep, Roleblock, and Universal Backup.

Open 506, Jailkeep, 1-shot Vig, and Vengeful.

Open 486, Jailkeep, Roleblock, and Rolecop.

Open 472, Jailkeep, 1-shot Vig, and 1-shot Redirect (probably trying to take the cop slot)

Open 542, Jailkeep, Neighborizer, and Universal Backup

So yeah.

[Mathdino]

So, my opinion in terms of numbers:
1. Scum are probably not going to double up so we can assume that there is one scum per number.

Actually, just looking at history, you're probably right on this. Power roles are more useful than trying to WIFOM the crowd by picking together.

[Mathdino]

Doctor is a very strong role as well. Had I been near the top I might've gone for Doc just to screw up the scum's strategy.

I think what we need to look at are the people near the top of the draft who went for Vengeful and 1-shot vig and didn't get it. Vengeshots usually hit town and Night 3 Vig is practically useless since you could die before then.

The people who went for redirector are probably just messing with the cop tbh.

[Mathdino]

PGO is a terrible role because you can't predict for sure when you'll get targeted, so let's get that off the table. 1-shot vig has a much higher chance of hitting town than not.

I'd actually be totally cool with lynching a claimed vengeful if we all vote on who they shoot if they end up being town. Vengeful and vig by themselves are much more likely to hit town than not and if anything are a detriment to town.

When it comes to vig, if the vig agreed to shoot someone the crowd decides on, sure I'd be fine with keeping them alive.

Basically my point is, something like Cop is 10x more useful to town than any killing roles are, and I have a problem with any uncontrolled vigs because if they're scum it's a free pass to kill off a townie they happened to be 'scumreading'.

[Mathdino]

Gonna have to disagree with you on not lynching them. I'm certainly not proposing we lynch vigs just for being vigs; IIRC 518 had someone pull a "I didn't get vig so there's scum above me", turned out a townie went for vig just to deprive scum of it.

But see, the thing is, we have to take these things along with the vig shot into account when we're developing reads on people. I'm not going to scumread or townread someone solely based on the shot they take, since there's a TON of WIFOM there. Furthermore, if scum have a vig, they get 2 shots which are indistinguishable unless we have a tracker. The vig can claim they shot whichever one makes them less scummy.

I don't want to waste a townie dying just to get a read on someone. If there's a vig out there planning on shooting, I suggest leashing them, using their shot as a nulltell, lynching them if they don't shoot who we collectively want, and reading them by other means.

The "People wanted me to shoot them" being a legitimate defence is only applicable if we try to read someone based on their shot.
So how bout this. We can vote on who gets vigged with a

Vig: Hayate

or something and someone can tally up the votes. If the claimed vig doesn't shoot the most popular target (who isn't already lynched), we kill em.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: Gonna have to disagree with you on not leashing them.

Addendum: I like Hayate and I

want

to townread him but I've got a feeling it's the playstyle I like more than the behaviour.

In other news, starting off with townreads on droog and Aneninenanenanenanenoneninonymous, slight scumread on Amy; her post is pinging me with the devil's advocacy followed by an "If you're scum" argument.

Amy

, what are your reads? What's your read on me? If scum, why didn't you vote me?

[Mathdino]

We do think of things differently, but that's good because I think you're on to something but I can't for the life of me understand it.

Can you rephrase your proposal for the vig please? Suppose someone claims 1-shot vig. What are you suggesting?

Also, no, I didn't look into that but I might when I have more time. Hayate's research is a bit more in depth than mine of course (probably does have more time) so I'll see if he wants to.

[Mathdino]

See the issue I'm having with Amy is the underhandedness of the statement "If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game" without even scumreading me. It's like "Okay, that action is potentially beneficial for scum". Well that's great. So are most actions. She's throwing out reasons to be suspicious of the theory debate without any conviction.
Also, while farside provides examples and from what I understood, good reasoning on why some assumptions I made were wrong, Amy's reads more like "Well I dunno, PGO

could

be useful, right?" which seems a bit off.

droog is a bit of a weak read, but suffice it to say, I don't think 37 comes from a scum perspective and it doesn't seem faked. I think random voting is pretty null, what's telling is what they do afterward or how their vote is phrased (Flubber's, for example, is scummier than our E.B.O.N.Y. Warrior's vote). Also I think town are slightly more likely to just not have read the thread at this point in the game

and admit to it

.

Hayate

: Why are you calling for a wagon on Flubber but not voting him?

[Mathdino]

@Venrob:

1. You're saying you want us to policy you...?
2. Any reads? You say you've read the game but all you talked about is yourself, the past, and an RV.
3. Funny thing on the number 4. According to this notecard I have, the history of 4 in these games is:
5 people, 4 people, 3, 3,

0

, 5.
The 0 was 518, haha.

[Mathdino]

Tbh I'd probably be tunneling Venrob by now for every word he says if I didn't believe him on his meta, haha.

droog is town. Like, incredibly town.

Alchemist, want an explanation for the vote. Is it because wgeurts usually hates RVS? I don't see that as a tell either way.

[Mathdino]

On droog: 37 and 61 show what look like fairly genuine town perspectives, and 61 is just a good post in general, using RVS to the fullest.

On Alchemist and Flubber: Hmm. While I agree that Alchemist's defence of Flubber may be

incorrect

, I'm finding it difficult to call it scummy. Consider: Saying it's null "Even if he exaggerated his anger" doesn't really have much scum motivation if Flubber's town, and if they're both scum I find it difficult to believe Alchemist would be a scumbuddy apologist.
If anything, what's worse about Alch's ISO is the naked vote on wgeurts, but I'm waiting on an explanation for that one.

Edit: Okay, so what was the point of that statement I quoted?

If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game.

[Mathdino]

...you just did it again. "Doing [x] would be pretty useful if you were scum." Okay, so what?

UNVOTE: Flubber
VOTE: Amy

[Mathdino]

Scummy =/= scum. No shit it's scummy, Venrob's entire playstyle strikes me as scummy. However, I'm confident he's not lying about his meta (and if he is I fully expect someone to call him out on it pretty soon), so what he's done so far strikes me as null.

Do you think he's scum? Or at least, what are the chances he's scum? Same question goes for me actually.

[Mathdino]

You know Siveure, if you're scum, sheeping me is a pretty good excuse to mislynch someone without accountability

Regardless, I suggest we keep the setup spec to the people at the bottom of the draft, since at that point whatever role you picked doesn't really matter anyway and you can probably just go for your favourite.

[Mathdino]

@farside: Shooting N2 doesn't really have many downsides IMO, I'd be fine with it. Want more discussion on this before solidifying a plan, also wanna think about it a bit more, so I'll get back to you if I've got any new thoughts.

@Siveure/droog: It was a joke mocking Amy's 'if you're scum' thing. Finding Siv's reaction a bit weird but I guess it makes sense if you took that seriously.

[Mathdino]

You just got me thinking about what if we voted on who the vig should shoot and have them remain silent, but then I realised that if the scum have JK, and they probably do given history, they could easily just jail the player we want vig to shoot. :/

Scratch the entire vig discussion then. However, I still think all this applies to vengeful. If someone claims vengeful, we should immediately start voting on who they should shoot IMO. And... scream at them if they don't shoot town's choice?

[Mathdino]

@davesaz: Also, as trust tells are banned, you might wanna read up to make sure and contact the mod and not us.

@farside: It's an extra lynch if we lynch town. Lynches are good, especially since leashing the vengeful essentially gives us a redo if they flip town. 2 town COULD be dead but we face that danger with any lynch.
And if the venge is scum then it's just a waste of time.

Here's my idea:

If we L-1 someone and they claim vengeful, we agree to lynch that person no matter what because leaving them alive puts them in the scum's hands and we don't want to get into a NK WIFOM discussion of why they're alive the next day. At that point, we start voting on who they should vengekill. If you're a town vengeful, you need to know that giving town discussion on kills is absolutely best for town.

@Alchemist: Pressure vote is meh, wgeurts could just not be online. Don't like it.

[Mathdino]

Then hypothetically I'd argue with you the entire day about why you should go with the majority vote.

That said, as of the wgeurts vote explanation, current scumreads are Amy, Alch, and Flubber (though I'm iffy on the latter 2 both being scum), so I wouldn't cry over it.

Edit: Alchemist, please give your top scumread or any reads if existent. The fact is that you changed your RVS vote to someone as pressure when there was no indication that he

wouldn't

come back, all the while RVS votes are pretty much for reactions in the first place.

[Mathdino]

MathDino, 63, why is Druuge incredibly town? Why are 37 and 61 so town?
Amy, 65 so, you dislike discussing theories and you've still done that. Hmmmmmm... and in 67 I think you misrepresented Venrob.
MathDino, 85, good idea, stop that discussion.
By the way, do you want a trust tell? Here it comes!

Spoiler:

You Have Been Pigeoned!

Hint: you can see this pigeon ONLY IF I'm town, OR if I'm scum. Trust me, this tell works all the time![/img]

Deleted everything I'm not responding to.

On droog, I can't explain much more than I already have. 61 shows clear scumhunting. That said, his recent 'too townish to be town' read is weird, though it does seem like something he'd come up with from what I know of his thought process. Regardless, replacing him with you as top townread.
Agree on Amy.
On the vig discussion, I don't think PRs are stupid enough to out themselves during setup spec, especially since it's pretty easy to WIFOM the scum. I think setup spec is healthy if only to generate plans. But again, if you want to preserve the roles of the people most likely to have gotten PRs, we can always leave setup spec to the bottom of the draft order; scum's not exactly looking there.
On the trust tell... I think this guy's not a serial killer, everyone.

[Mathdino]

@droog: Remember the argument I was obsessed with in 574? Namely: Is what I'm doing

inconsistent

with town, or is it simply consistent with scum? Because if it's consistent with both, what you're saying doesn't really hold much ground.
On the 'helpful townie' thing, I basically need to be involved and responding to people to stay on top of it. Side effect of extraversion. If I DON'T respond to people constantly and get input, I'm liable to forget things.

@Siveure: Mehhh. I find inexperienced town killing roles pretty irritating tbh, since lynches are inherently more accurate than shots in the literal dark. And you're right, majority isn't conf town. However, majority is all we have to get a lynch and that's not conftown either.
Lynching is good for town.

[Mathdino]

Fair enough droog. You should know that trying to point at ANYTHING I wrote and trying to tell you all it's town would be scummy in itself.
So would your read on me be more accurately described as null then if nothing convinces you I'm town so far?

In other news, it's kind of refreshing to see someone who doesn't just townread or scumread me solely for effort, haha.

[Mathdino]

I've never argued setup spec should be the foundation for scumhunting, and I actually argued against reading based on claims. You're basically mirroring my opinion; if someone tries to ONLY use setup spec, I'll be more than a bit weirded out. Setup spec should

supplement

scumhunting, just as setup supplements the game.

I don't know what you're asking me, I just found your talking about trust tells without researching and doing so in thread to be pretty bad. It's useless; if it's not a trust tell, doesn't matter, and if it is, you're asking for the slot to be modkilled due to alignment compromising.

We have differing opinions on Flubber's meta.

For those who've played with Flubber, can you link to his RVS behaviour please?

[Mathdino]

Addendum: Your lines of questioning suck, no offence. Your thoughts on setup spec and Flubber are enough to stop me from scumreading you, but yeah, those questions along with the paragraph on setup spec that mostly parrots popular opinion is kinda useless.

[Mathdino]

MS is much more focused on offence than defence. I think trying to prove oneself as town is both useless and EXTREMELY WIFOMable. The moment you try to use something you've done for towncred, it becomes something easily faked by a scum-you.

You should all sheep E.B.O.N.Y. Magazine's case on Amy if you didn't believe me earlier. It's a good one.

[Mathdino]

I'd like farside and Hayate to be town but I'm unsure on them.

It's a statement of wishful thinking based on player affinity, not confirmational bias.

[Mathdino]

Alchemist

: You are now a vengeful and we just lynched you. Who do you shoot?

Hayate

: You are now blah blah blah who do you shoot?

Amy:

You're kidding me. Your response to whether or not you think I'm scum is "Not really, I don't have any presentable proof." In other words you're not scumreading me because you can't prove it, rather than because there's no evidence for it.
More votes please^

[Mathdino]

I appreciate that I know enough of wgeurts's meta to recognise this. I recognised 'scum found' as something wgeurts said in 574 as scum.

Now, I'm not reading based on a phrase. But this got me to thinking. wgeurts in that game was an extreme tunneler, his confidence in his scumreads being off the charts. Town wgeurts, on the other hand, I've seen as far more careful, uses qualifiers, fencesits a bit and uses slightly wishy-washy wording. I don't like this. I'll get back on the Amy wagon if necessary but I think my vote's better served here.

UNVOTE: Amy
VOTE: wgeurts

Also, the above post is nowhere near strong enough or inconsistent with town to warrant that level of confidence.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: The above post is nowhere near strong enough nor are Anen's actions inconsistent with town to warrant that level of confidence.

[Mathdino]

Dammit, I searched the phrase "scum found" in his post history, lemme try that again.
Okay turns out you can't link a search. Basically I saw him saying 'scum found' and I got a flashback of the last game.

[Mathdino]

I did a quick search, Amy's not experienced, let's take that off the table.

I understand your doubt on the wgeurts thing, so I'll just go ahead and page

Alchemist

droog

Anyone who's played with wgeurts of both alignments

I want to confirm this, because I think this is a valid tell.

[Mathdino]

Ah, anen responded.
Could you consider the possibility of her being scared as noob with her being vigilante or something. That's my paranoia, if we lynch her she could be a legit town vig. What draft was she again?

Okay, so on one hand, we have legit and somewhat helpful setup spec with regards to what roles scum tend to pick, what to look out for, what the plan is if someone claims vig/vengeful...
and on the other hand, we have wgeurts directly speculating the role of someone based on something they said.

Me.

I don't have a clue what to say.

Don't really like the way math distances from the amy wagon after leaving it...

Point out the distancing. If you mean my comments on Amy being inexperienced, that has nothing to do with my thoughts on the wagon and I'm not really quite sure how relevant her experience level is to her scumminess.
Like I said, I'd get back on the Amy wagon in a moment's notice, but I'm putting a vote on wgeurts because Amy already has pressure and I want to push wgeurts to better his case on Aneninenanoneninynoninunanonymous.

[Mathdino]

Appeal to emotion.

[Mathdino]

*let's take the discussion of Amy's experience level off the table.

I found that discussion to be a bad use of our time.
Siveure, if you got nothin else to do, could always do a reads list.

[Mathdino]

droog pointing this out is null. In fact I'd say it's more townish than not because scum would want to avoid the argument that you're presenting right now.

It's subject to WIFOM, basically.

[Mathdino]

Mathdino

- While I disagree with his opinions on some roleclaims, he gets townpoints for replying to comments and counteropinions on what he said. And I can see the town ideology behind his posts talking about his reads on various people, and I can't find any gaping holes in his reasoning. On the other hand, I don't like him dragging the theory discussion on and on, and while we did still get game-related posts from him, it seems like an easy way to beef up one's ISO and natter on about something that looks like participation.
Also, regarding post 152, if you're not reading based on the phrase then what are you doing. That's how your read started off. Are you sure you're not just reading into the other behaviour because you picked up on the phrase?

I picked up on it, so I checked his ISOs just to see what would happen and it turned out that I was correct in that wgeurtscum is far more confident while wgeurtown is more wishy-washy. Best part is Open 575 just ended so I can talk about that freely. I'd never scumread someone just for a phrase, but that phrase might send me on a mini-investigation.

[Mathdino]

Any special reason you didn't act on this idea of pressuring people? I find it to be very passive, and the one liners since then are even worse.
VOTE: wgeurts

UNVOTE: amy farrah fowler

Really not feeling this wagon any more.

I don't think conflicting or contradictory opinions makes her scummy, and there's not an enormous amount otherwise.

Also, Anen's latest post looks really confbiasy. So what if she's not scumhunting?

IN OTHER NEWS, dave has put down a non-rvs vote. This is BIG NEWS. Lets support this!

VOTE: wgeurts

VOTE: guts

Sheeping dino. I town read him and I suck at mafia right now.

This was too easy. Getting cold feet about the wgeurts wagon. I think there's scum in the above.
UNVOTE: wgeurts
Call it pseudoscience but wagons form easier on town than on scum. Gonna think about this and regroup.

[Mathdino]

You're right droog, it would be.

But I'd also say it's clever for town, given the incredibly fishy 3 votes there. I don't think there's necessarily scum in any of the other votes, it's just the speed of the wagon in that one page that was actually pretty unprecedented that makes it weird for me. If wgeurts's play warrants voting him again in the future, then I'll do so, but right now it's making me real uncomfortable.

@davesaz: I wouldn't be surprised one bit if wgeurts flips scum. But it's still a wagon I don't want to be on right now given what just happened with those 3 votes. Call it paranoia. Like I said, that wagon was waaay too easy.

[Mathdino]

The Amy wagon was different. It was more thought out, I think, and it developed pretty naturally over time. Most if not all the players on her wagon had fairly reasoned arguments and had interacted with her prior to voting.
wgeurts's is different, it was more spontaneous. I had almost no input on it since my votepost and somehow that spawned 4 more votes.

Also a bit uncomfortable with how I kickstarted literally every non RVS wagon this game. Flubbernugget, Amy, and now wgeurts. Looked at the VCs a bit and Flubber and Siveure are the only 2 people the wagons have in common.

Someone said something about Flubber's RVS meta. Can anyone who's played with him talk about him and provide links? Is he usually like this?

[Mathdino]

Just give your read with no evidence or links.

[Mathdino]

I like when ppl doubtcast without trying to peg my alignment.

Too scummy to be scum, Alchemist. This is the kind of guy I'd want a meta and playstyle argument on before considering voting him again. Also the blatant sheeping. Scum tend to do it much more subtly.
Of course if he's usually way better than this we'll lynch his ass, but I just don't know right now.

Personally, I'm gonna go with Siveure and see where that takes me.
VOTE: Siveure

You're right, anyway, with the fact that the wgeurts wagon practically absorbed the Amy one. The lack of competition is bad.

Edit: Good. Well, not good, but I guess he's town.

[Mathdino]

It's always relevant. To not use the information at hand is daft.

[Mathdino]

Also, Anen's latest post looks really confbiasy. So what if she's not scumhunting?

Actually, I didn't notice this first time around. Hm.

Alchemist, do you believe scum would make a statement as obvious as "It's cool if y'all don't look for us"? This seems like a sentence scum would correct immediately with a simple reread of the post.

[Mathdino]

Hmm. Fair point.

That said, the way you're pushing this is a bit off to me if Siveure's town.

I want to note that it's highly unlikely Alchemist and Siveure are scum together since he shouts at people for choosing 4. At the end of the last game he publicly advised not going for 4 since everyone takes it all the time. So it's unlikely to be bussing. I'm gonna shelve this for now until my read on Siveure evolves.

[Mathdino]

(8) If you look at the point where you started having a go at me, math did roughly the same setup discussion things I did. I'm not accusing math of being scum because I don't use shit reasoning for my votes but if you're intending to follow your theory then you may want to check that out. In fact math said even more about vigs, going so far so as to talk about the strategy for them and vengefuls. Who's discussing specific PRs now.

I was about to call this post clueless town until I saw this. Which reeks of deflection that's trying too hard to be self conscious.

[Mathdino]

What the fuck with these wagons I keep starting...

You have GOT to be kidding me.

It's actually creeping me out by now. I'm guessing there may be a scum avoiding my wagons altogether. Way too tired but want to do more wagon analysis tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

Oh okay.

Still. Been 1st or 2nd in like every wagon except (finally) Vic Sage here's wagon.

[Mathdino]

I'm not sure how many people you think it takes to lynch, but the Amy wagon, wgeurts wagon, AND the Siveure wagon have all reached L-3.

It's creepy because this usually doesn't happen for me and it's making me paranoid.

[Mathdino]

Here's something else to consider. Siv is 4th in the draft order. If he's scum, I think there's a good chance he got his submitted role choice, and he would also likely be the highest scum in the draft order.

If he's town, this wagon would be an easy mislynch.

If he's scum and his draft pick returned Vanilla, then this might be a wagon where the scumteam will bus.

However, if he holds a key role for the scumteam, and we push the wagon harder, I think we'll see some ratalliation from the scum hoping to keep an important role for them in the game.

Dude you have no idea how many scumpoints you just got for if Siveure flips town. No idea.

[Mathdino]

The point of my post was to say we should pressure Siv to see if we get any scum resistance to the wagon.

That's great. But the fact that you said that nullifies any and all behaviour toward the wagon because scum know what we're looking for. What if there's no resistance? Do we unvote him? What if Siveure's town? Now what?

[Mathdino]

You don't understand. The very fact that you stated that plan means you'll get 0 results because mafia will change their play based on what'll get them suspected.

Which makes me think you're scum. It's faux scumhunting.

[Mathdino]

You're trying to do wagon analysis based on a flip that hasn't even happened yet, while telling everyone exactly what you'll be looking for. I'm very much not confident I want to lynch you today since you're a PR but in any other situation this is the part where I'd be voting you.

[Mathdino]

Well, Siv is another person I am willing to vote, so since this looks like it's happening...

VOTE: Siv

L-2

This seems fishy. It reads like he's trying to be consistent with himself from earlier (saying he'd watch Flubber and Siv), not trying to scumhunt.

[Mathdino]

@Siveure. You posted that you're vanilla. If you told which role had you gone for, would it help the town more than the scum? If so, please tell us the role you wanted to get!

Oh dear.

See, a townie would tell Siveure their thoughts on what benefits whom and tell Siv to act accordingly.

This is a generic "do whatever benefits town" which allows him to avoid any suspicion for trying to ask Siv to do something.

I think we should look at Anenonenaninunonynonanonymous and Alchemist if Siveure is town.

[Mathdino]

Personally, I don't care either way right now. At L-1 Siveure should probably give everything he has just for the future, but I really don't understand the premature claim.

[Mathdino]

Can you provide other examples of panicking and premature claiming please? I do believe this is the lynch wagon; I'm more confident in this than wgeurts and Amy. Amy's wagon gave me heebeejeebies and my argument on wgeurts was legitimately just meta, no idea wtf happened there.

Alchemist's behaviour is tied very much to his interaction with others. As such, I want a flip before I consider lynching a PR. His being a PR won't stop me from seriously considering him tomorrow if you flip town.

Scum is gonna work harder than town to figure out the breadcrumb, Siveure. Indicating that you've breadcrumbing it is tantamount to outing your pick to scum more than town. Just go ahead and say it.

[Mathdino]

Can't find the breadcrumb, just tell us Siv. It's not like scum would lie about what role they went for (unless they went for an uber scummy role pair like vengeful/vig).

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: Not like scum would lie about what role pair they went for.

[Mathdino]

@Siveure. You posted that you're vanilla. If you told which role had you gone for, would it help the town more than the scum? If so, please tell us the role you wanted to get!

Here's the issue. Rather than taking a stand on what Siv should do, you went for maximum towncred and told him to basically do whatever he thinks benefits town. Why would you ask the suspect to decide that?

[Mathdino]

If you're town, I support this vote^.

I believe there's VERY likely scum in {Siveure, Alchemist, Ananananenenenenenininininononononununununonymous}.

At the moment, Siveure's still higher on my suspect list since he's got more going against him, and my reasons for suspecting the other two are directly tied to the hypothetical that he's town.

Why don't you just tell us the breadcrumb?

[Mathdino]

If there's a doc out there, they should self-protect since mafia now knows who they are.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised at ALL if scum bagged roleblocker.

[Mathdino]

Doctor OR Roleblocker

Congratulations, you have won the Doctor OR Roleblocker Role.

Abilities:

Doctor: Each night, you may select a player in the game to protect from one nightkill.
Roleblocker: Each night, you may select a player in the game to roleblock. This will prevent them from using an action.

Venrob, planning to put your vote somewhere else?

What're your current thoughts on the gamestate?

Mod, can the doc self protect?

[Mathdino]

I actually think it's good, wouldn't expect scum to flip-flop like that irrelevant of Siveure's flip. Venrob's probably town based on those posts.

Any new thoughts on the game, Ank?

Also where's Rom?

Yo mod, prod Romitelli?

[Mathdino]

Ankamius,

why is davesaz scum?

I think he's town. Prob conftown if Siv flips scum, along with the actual doc.

[Mathdino]

Alchemist21 - 4
davesaz - 6

Hayate Yagami

Ankamius - 8
Siveure DtTrikyp - 13
Venrob - 15
Aneninen - 1
Romitelli - 1
Amy Farrah Fowler - 3
farside22 - 3
Mathdino - 5
wgeurts - 5
Flubbernugget - 2

gangsta_duck41

AdrienC - 2
droog - 2

Groups that don't have more than one scum:

Alchemist, Siveure, davesaz

: Finding it unlikely Siv would've let Alch go for 4. Alch's behaviour is mostly scummy if Siveure flips town. Setup spec tells me it's unlikely there's more than one scum here simply because Siveure didn't get his pick, along with a few other things.

Aneninen, Romitelli:

High chance for Anen to be scum if Siv's town. It'd certainly fit the whole "scum chooses one high, one low, and one middle" draft pattern. Until we get a flip, no comment on this pair.

Amy, farside:

Amy more likely than farside, but I'm less confident in my Amy read than I was due to aforementioned wagon patterns.

Mathdino, wgeurts:

wgeurts is prob town by this point.

Flubbernugget, Adrien, droog

: Hmm. Originally I'd have gone with Flubber but people's input makes me less sure. Also voting patterns make me think Flubber and Siveure aren't a thing. So I'd go with Adrien.

Ankamius

: Not enough to tell. Every one of Hayate's posts were null IMO.

Very much appreciate the low number of groups to go through. This, people, is why you don't pick 9001 or 42. NKs in the top section will make it easier. As of now, here are my 2 callings of the more-likely-to-be-scum-of-the-groups:

If Siv's scum

: Siveure, Romitelli, Amy, wgeurts, Adrien, Ankamius

If Siv's town

: Alchemist, Aneninen, Amy, wgeurts, Flubbernugget, Ankamius

Anyone got any input, I'm welcome to it.

[Mathdino]

Hey wgeurts, droog, if it helps, go through my ISO and lemme know what you're seeing. Interested to hear.

[Mathdino]

Missed Venrob. Whoops.

Prob town. Could become scum out of PoE since it's a relatively weak townread but town nonetheless.

[Mathdino]

Scum draft pick history:

Open 542: 1, 2, 6
Open 518: 5, 12, 42
Open 506: 1, 5, 6
Open 468: 1, 10, 22
Open 472: 1, 3, 7
Open 427: 1, 4, 8

With the exception of the last one, it always seems to follow the pattern of low number, middle number, high number. Relatively speaking.

[Mathdino]

lol'd

For anyone looking in on the outside, I was talking about who's more likely to be scum out of each of the groups I outlined.

I obviously don't have 6 (now 7) scumreads, haha.

[Mathdino]

@E.B.O.N.Y. Blade (I really love nicknaming you xD): That's a ballsy claim, especially right after I listed all the scum draft picks. Probably true. Would be very unsurprised if Romitelli was scum.

I think Siveure means that the doc is prob self protecting.

[Mathdino]

Mod, can the doc self protect?

From the wiki entry for doctor, no, the doctor cannot self protect.

-_-

Yeah okay the doc's pretty much dead.

[Mathdino]

There's scum in the top 4. I'll eat my hat if there's not.

By that, it'll be incredibly easy for scum to figure out who it is.

[Mathdino]

Dino: why is the reaction weird

Defencive. Fishy. Overreaction. More gut than anything, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it while building a "why Siv is scum" list.

[Mathdino]

They're not, just gives scumpoints.

Regardless, that's not the lynchpin of my reasons for voting you and I don't really think it matters much.

[Mathdino]

farside redefines goodposting in this game.

I think the main reason I'm hesitant to switch to Alchemist is sunk cost. Siveure prematurely claimed and I'm still iffy on pressuring a PR.
I'm not confident on Flubber; arguing against 'too scummy to be scum' is practically policy voting. If I don't think Flubber's scum based on his meta and based on the fact that I don't see scum doing what he's done, then voting him based on those actions is arguing for a policy lynch so he plays better. And I'm not solid on that.
That said, I'm much more confident in my Alchemist read.

[Mathdino]

wgeurts's and Amy's developed too fast. Yours didn't, and the people had better reasons for voting you other than sheeping.

UNVOTE:

I'll decide who to vote after I come back but I'm beginning to think I was only hanging onto Siv since he already claimed and I wanted an info lynch.
Let's not do that.

[Mathdino]

I think they all formed at the same speed. I'm not sure why you pause at lynching alchemist if you think he is scum and you think scum might be within the top 4

Because he's a PR and Siv prematurely claimed not-PR. That's pretty much it. I'm far more comfortable with Siv's lynch since we gain information and we don't lose a PR.

I want to hear

Ankamius's

argument on why this is town-Alchemist before I vote.

[Mathdino]

Hey. Hey wgeurts.

Guess who my top 3 scumreads are.

Will give ya something to do. Otherwise, I like this conversation just fine xD

All seriousness, this is prob town wgeurts. Town found.

[Mathdino]

I also played with him. I dont see a compelling meta argument in his favour tbh.
VOTE: Alchemist

/phoneposting

[Mathdino]

I'd have to say

Cloud Atlas

,

Jurassic Park

, and

Frankenstein

. Maybe

Game of Thrones

.

[Mathdino]

Top 3 reads doesn't apply for me. I have 2 scenarios with very different gamestates in my eyes.

Read my posts, basically.

[Mathdino]

Hey. Hey davesaz. Couple things.

By 'check interactions between Alchemist, wgeurts, and Mathdino', you're claiming that that has a chance at being the scumteam? I think it's notable that bagging PRs is generally more important than trying to WIFOM everyone; people will inevitably ask "Why isn't this conftown not dead yet" and if the scum give up PRs, we'd have more than enough to start working at the puzzle. It's just not a reasonable move, PRs are extremely important this game.

Your definition of rolefishing is a bit wonky. farside's vengeful thing doesn't read like rolefishing at all.

Also, I feel there's a miscommunication between you and like half my posts, will get to that. Just one thing though; in scumreading me, I'm supposing you agree with Alchemist in that Siveure is a highly bussable scumbuddy?

[Mathdino]

I saved Mathdino for last because there is so much information.
Lots of setup speculation. I'm not really comfortable with town trying to direct vig / vengeful because of the high probability that outspoken scum could control it by urging town to make bad suggestions. 50 looks busy but boils down to null reads. Votes Amy in 68 for "doing x would be useful as scum", which is a pretty null thing to say. More vig/vengeful discussion.

Post 137 "I'd like farside and Hayate to be town" jumped out at me, this always strikes me as odd. Post 145 could be role fishing. 152 switches to wgeurts, but would get back on Amy if necessary. 260 unvotes wgeurts, worried about wagons forming easily. (I disagree, the time to be worried is when they dissolve easily). Says in 269 that the amy wagon was different.

314 creeped out about people joining wagons he starts. This bothered me a bit, as town I want people to join my wagons. I can see that it's about the speed of the wagons, but even that is questionable to me as others could easily be reacting to what they see happening in the thread, not to who started the wagon.

375 is the post where he splits the player list into groups which "can't be scum together". This post is one which looks townie but is probably more useful to scum. 378 is again on the setup speculation. 426 unvotes (from Siv) 449 votes Alchemist, doesn't have a "top 3" -- has 2 lists based on flips. Looking back at that...

If Siv's scum: Siveure, Romitelli, Amy, wgeurts, Adrien, Ankamius
If Siv's town: Alchemist, Aneninen, Amy, wgeurts, Flubbernugget, Ankamius

Which boils down to siv+romitelli+amy/wgeurts vs. Alchemist+Anen+amy/wgeurts. I find it interesting that the 3rd scum position, in both of these lists, is Amy or wgeurts, who he unvoted as being creeped out about how fast the wagons went. If he really thought they were scummy, why jump off the wagons so fast?

Overall, I get a weak scum on Mathdino.

Just checking your evidence I'm seeing a lot of misrep.

50 very clearly has a scumread on Amy, townread on droog, scumread on Flubber, townread on Aneninen. I think you're pulling the "random voting is pretty null" and extrapolating that to the rest of the post.

I disagree on Amy, the idea is that it's mudslinging without actually committing to a scumread.

137... well of course it jumped out at you, I was repeating exactly what wgeurts said and applying it to myself, trying to show how it's not really telling. You're gonna have to explain better what makes that weird. farside and Hayate looked like pretty legit players, but also good enough to have faked everything they'd done at the time.

As scum you don't want people to join your wagons? Last I checked, goal of scum was to survive and mislynch. You're comparing our playstyles where it's not applicable; I'm fairly cautious especially when weirded out. The speed of those wagons, the majority of the votes of which were without reason and pretty much sheeping, was just bad. Read my posts before you set up a straw man.

Please explain how 375 is more useful to scum. The idea of "looks townie but is probably more useful to scum" is something that really needs to be backed up with something, because otherwise it's a "too townish to be town" argument.
And yeah Siveure is correct in that that's not an ordered list. That's me picking who the most likely scum is of each of the groups I created. If you read the list you'll see that; I'm not gonna call wgeurts town and then propose that he's my 4th top scumread, lol.

I want to scumread you for misrepping me in like everything, but that doesn't have much scum motivation, so I'm still going with derptown with a couple projection issues. Don't read someone based off playstyle, davesaz. Especially don't read someone by comparing to

yourself

as town/scum.

[Mathdino]

It's unlikely he's scum with either Alchemist or Siveure, and it's HIGHLY likely one of them is scum, so that's definitely a huge factor.

His reads also look pretty townish in general, they seem like the type that he'd find hard to fake as scum, even though as I said a lot of his arguments aren't too good.

Do you disagree or feel that conclusion is unfounded? The fact that scum say that doesn't make it inconsistent with town.

[Mathdino]

History of Doc Picks:

Open 542: Doc was 3rd in the draft order, no one else picked it.
Open 518: RB was taken by scum, 8th in the draft order, no one else picked it (hi Siv).
Open 506: Doc was 4th in the draft order, no one else picked it (hi Siv).
Open 486: RB was taken by scum, 3rd in the draft order. Other picks unknown.
Open 472: Doc was not taken.
Open 427: Doc was 7th in the draft order. Other picks are unknown.

So it's usually one doc pick per game. Notable that 542 had a town doc 3rd in the draft order, so your logic's a bit shoddy, Siv.

[Mathdino]

Please explain how 375 is more useful to scum. The idea of "looks townie but is probably more useful to scum" is something that really needs to be backed up with something, because otherwise it's a "too townish to be town" argument.

I put this post in the same category as ruling out the possibility that scum wouldn't pick two numbers the same.

Eliminating

possibilities is good for scum, because it prevents town from reading the other player in the set as scum once the first one flips. The correct town mindset is that it's

unlikely

that scum picked two numbers the same, or it's

unlikely

that there are two scum in this set of players. Thinking that it's impossible for a player to be scum is the foundation for scum winning.

Is this just a terminology thing? Maybe. But I'm not in a big rush to dismiss the difference.

Yet at the same time, paranoia about people still being able to be scum after there's like a 90% chance they're town sets the table for scum keeping up mislynches.
The ONLY way that my line of thinking on ruling out possibilities is the foundation for scum winning, is if scum did in fact both pick the same number in the draft, which would be shooting themselves in the foot because PRs would screw them over pretty bad. Scum needs to bag PRs to have a decent shot at this.
Also, I believe my Siv/Alchemist lack of being a team is extremely solid given Siv's hatred for the 4 pick. He knows 4 is a bad idea, doubt he'd've let Alchemist do that.

Damn it dino, don't make us lynch you in my third(?) game with you.

Might wanna elaborate on that threat, wgeurts. Is this because I don't feel like going with the top 3 scumreads thing?

[Mathdino]

Advocating a lack of scumhunting is controversial. It's not scummy just because it's controversial. Why is it more likely from scum than town?

Like, if it just gets suspicion and does nothing else, it's indicative of a lack of foresight. Which alignment is more likely to not plan ahead how people react to their words? Especially something controversial?

This argument is literally one of the worst I've ever seen, mostly because you're saying what scum do and what town do and applying it to yourself.

[Mathdino]

Scum draft pick history:

Open 542: 1, 2, 6
Open 518: 5, 12, 42
Open 506: 1, 5, 6
Open 468: 1, 10, 22
Open 472: 1, 3, 7
Open 427: 1, 4, 8

With the exception of the last one, it always seems to follow the pattern of low number, middle number, high number. Relatively speaking.

davesaz, what I find hard to reconcile about your manner of scumhunting is as a "never say never" player you're awfully black and white. You:
1. Assume that these 4 cases are all that's possible.
2. Attempt to shoehorn my behaviour into one of these 4 cases.
3. Assume what I WOULD do which is a blatant oversimplification.
4. Straw man again on why I left those wagons.

I thought Amy was scummy. The speed at which everyone jumped on her wagon made me uneasy however, and made me think it might be scum motivated. I'm unsure of this, but the circumstances were very odd.

I thought wgeurts was a little bit scummy based on a tell I thought I saw, so I voted him basically to see where it'd take me. It took me to L-2 again, with a ton of unwarranted votes that don't at all match wgeurts's scumminess. I jumped off to regroup and do some wagon analysis.

Everyone suddenly agreeing with me on those wagons is strange and unrealistic from my POV. Perhaps I AM ignoring the possibility that town agreed he was scummy, but even then, you're attacking my logic, not my alignment.

Also, I have to reiterate that the only way that my ruling out of possibilities is scummy is if you believe that 2 scum picked the same draft. Otherwise, if I were scum and we all picked 3 different numbers, that PoE doesn't help scum at all. So do you think wgeurts and I are scum? Furthermore, since you're speculating that this fits into 'case 1', why would I NEED to distance from my partner when there's already incredibly solid evidence we're not scum together? Unnecessary risk.

[Mathdino]

Phantom quote, pls ignore.

[Mathdino]

Alright, I think that's fair.

And yeah, the other scenario is unsureness in the wagon, wanting to see where it takes us early, and jumping off when the circumstances got fishy. So changing my mind, then.

I'm curious to see what you come up with when you check out Alchemist a bit more, your read on him boils down to 'interesting'. His behaviour toward Siveure was very odd, I'd say.
Also, can you talk about your meta analysis of Flubber? I've yet to see a good fleshed out argument on him that doesn't ignore meta.

[Mathdino]

Shit.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, I'll have to agree. I want a flip before I start looking at him again.

I think his behaviour surrounding your breadcrumb was pretty townish and I have a personal hypothesis for what happened back there that I won't reveal for obv reasons.
I think somehow that turned into me making it unlikely he was scum with Alchemist I guess.

[Mathdino]

Sup bitches, let's lynch some scum.

What should I know going into this?

You should know your avatar's badass and you have a pretty good chance of being scum.

Other than that, looking forward to contributions from a lurky slot.

[Mathdino]

LOL

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: whoever

VOTE: Flubbernugget
"genuinely fucking pissed"
The 'genuinely' isn't really necessary if you're pissed, ya know.

this was a really odd rvs vote
dino what's going on

this is town

[Mathdino]

^this is also town

Yes that vote was serious, haha. Continued to be serious until Amy vote. Idk who my random vote was.

[Mathdino]

Didn't you agree effort isn't indicative of alignment? It's why I couldn't read Hayate early on. While I enjoyed his playstyle and talking to him, it was overall pretty null.

And I was joking, referencing 549.

[Mathdino]

548, whoops.

[Mathdino]

Statements about setup are more objective arguments, while statements about alignment and scumhunting are far more objective. I would expect the latter to be far softer and more qualified when coming from a more logically oriented player (like meeee).

@davesaz: True, but history shows that scum haven't done that.
Also, I think a pretty good explanation is the fact that everyone loves PRs, and few people like VTs. PRs are treated as more valuable than they are, IMO, which creates even more motivation for scum to try to go for them instead of WIFOMing everyone.

[Mathdino]

Goddammit.

EBWOP: far more subjective

[Mathdino]

Statements about setup are more objective arguments, while statements about alignment and scumhunting are far more objective.

{assuming this is a typo or else your upoint falls completely)

i could come up with some shitty example about how wrong this is
like, love is subjective and economics is objective
therefore, its natural to have stronger opinions on economics than love, right?
but , uh

why does anem get a pass dino

No, it's not natural.

But Aneninanonuneninonymous, like me, is clearly a more logical/analysis oriented player. So more objective things having to do with facts and probabilities are, speaking for myself, I'm more likely to have more

convicted

thoughts on.

Also love and economics are both objective subjects if we talk about them as topics. My personal love or feelings, I'm going to be much less convicted about because I'm not as emotional as I'd like.

[Mathdino]

So just to be clear, you're townreading:
1. Hayate/Ankamius
2. Siveure
3. Amy
4. davesaz
5. Alchemist
6/7. null-town on Romitelli/Adrien
8. Flubbernugget
9. Yourself obv
And you've given no read on farside/Venrob. So based on your latest reads, your proposed scumteam is me/Alchemist/Aneninen (you also said wgeurts was pinging your scumdar)?
Having conviction in your pet scumreads is great and all, but applying a dash of PoE makes you need to support this theory.

Edit: Never mind.

[Mathdino]

droog, I only see 4 real scumreads in 529. His read on me is flip floppy. That seems about appropriate IMO. Also if you read the post it had Amy as a townread.

[Mathdino]

Your wagon analysis is impressive, Adrien.

That said, might want to note that the whole reason I was on so many wagons is because I jumped off when they developed too fast.

And also that I've been the 1st or 2nd person on each of those 3 wagons.

Might wanna rethink what makes my wagon hopping suspicious.

[Mathdino]

Bro.

[Mathdino]

I didn't see the questions at all, lol. Assumed they were directed at Flubber. Whoops.

I'll swing by Day 2 to see what's going on with Flubbernugget but something just caught my eye that I think needs to be addressed right now. We had a weak wagon get started on Alchemist once the Siv wagon stalled. Ane did a nice breakdown showing us that Mathdino was on all three of the major wagons before hand. Now he's part of the second biggest wagon on right now. I'm just getting a vibe that he's trying to mislynch whoever he can.

I'll give him one post to answer these questions in a manner that makes me feel better about him before officially moving my vote onto him. Because I'm fair and stuff.

1) What was your reasoning for voting for then removing your votes on all three of them?

2) Who were your top two or three scumreads during the time of each wagon, including the wagoned player?

3) Who are you scumreading right now (including your voted read, Alchemist)? You sidestepped when you were asked before. You mentioned scenarios making people go either way before, I'll accept an explanation of that if it still applies.

1. Amy I believe I gave sufficient reasons for voting for. Her wagon developed too quickly in quick succession. wgeurts was a meta tell and I wanted to see where voting him would take me. Took me to L-2, jumped off to regroup and look at the wagon behaviour. By 3rd, do you mean Flubber? Siveure? Flubber I voted for RVS weirdness, jumped off to vote Amy. Siveure I'm off because I think Alchemist is a better idea and I realised I was only sticking to Siveure's wagon because he prematurely claimed VT and thus isn't really a loss if he gets lynched. Alchemist is higher risk. But more reward, since Siv's been acting pretty townish since the wagon developed.

2. Uh, don't know? I can retroactively guess.
Amy: Probably Amy and Flubber.
wgeurts: Amy, Flubber, wgeurts.
Siveure: I don't even remember, this was when I started getting into groupy mode.
Read my ISO if you want to know. I'm too lazy to do so now.

3. Scumteam if Siveure's scum is probably him (which rules out dave and Alchemist and sorta Aneninen and sorta Flubber, yay), and probably people in {Venrob, Ankamius, Amy, Adrien, the Romitelli slot}. Dunno, don't have flip. I could go into more detail of that hypothetical if you want. If Siv's town, which I'm coming around to, Alchemist and Aneninen rocket to the top of my scumreads, not sure on whether they're scum together, will have to check that. Otherwise, would look at {Flubber, Amy, Ankamius}.
I don't like the top scumreads question when I've already shown you I have a slightly more nuanced view of the game. It's fine if someone's inactive or isn't giving any reads but honestly, again, read my posts.

[Mathdino]

Wisdom is online constantly and posts a LOT. He's the only one that consistently got a higher post count than me in the last game I played with wgeurts. He even filled 2 pages with like 40 posts.

He ended up being scum.

Edit: 575.

[Mathdino]

Mostly responding to number 3: I think I got the gist of your scenario and understand what your point of view. What I'm wondering is you have this all planned out for Siv's flip, but you might not know what his flip will be now that the wagon on him is starting to disappear. What lynch do you think you can learn from other than his if we aren't lynching him? Because if I'm understanding how you're playing this game based on your last post, you are wanting to lynch you can connect the dots with. You're no longer voting the person you laid out your scenarios for so what now?

Good question, something that I needed to be asked I think.

Right now, I'm going with the "Siv is town" scenario and looking at Alchemist and Aneninen. Of them, I'm currently going with Alchemist, but I could settle for an Anen lynch just fine.

I haven't really planned out for those flips, because I don't have many interactions with Alchemist to look at. The main reason I had such a fleshed out scenario for Siveure's lynch is because pretty much everyone ended up talking about it. Alch, not so much. Will get back to you on that.

Siveure was at first a lynch for low content/wagonhopping/sheeping, then became a sunk cost lynch (didn't feel like lynching a PR) along with an info lynch, and now I'm going for a scum lynch. Higher risk, higher reward.

[Mathdino]

No ideer. I have an inkling of a mental note that said they may not be scum together, but that may just be sleep deprivation doubt. I don't have the time to go through any ISOs tonight since I'm going to bed after I do some stuff, but I can do that tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

The first thing that struck me as kind of odd was that droog rvs votes someone, and then pedits to vote aneninen, most likely to build a wagon on top of the previous vote. Nothing strange in that right? Wrong, later on page 1 droog questions Romitelli about not liking rvs, stating that he had not participated. Still nothing odd, right? Well how about droog pedit to vote a wagon on aneninen was building on Romitellis rvs vote. The words and actions aren’t adding up here. You mention catching people in lies later on, what do you usually do with liars? I do however, agree with your Math read though, fake as fuck. Telling a guy to notify a mod about a trust tell is horrible.

Hayate giving someone shit about putting an rvs vote down on page 2 without looking is laughable. Their reasoning, rvs might be over. It is page 2. And I’ve come in and rvsed after it was over when I was making my first post in game. Then my eyes glazed over with the debate of to vig or not to vig between this guy and Math. I’d rather have my starfish waxed again before trying to read those posts.

Alchemist21- are you an alt or a newbie? Why the move to wgeurts in #62? Ok, you claim that you want him to respond to your vote, why would he respond to one naked vote on him?

@Mathdino

why does this explanation satisfy you?

Math why are you so interested in peoples reads on page 3? In post #116 you attack someones line of questioning, saying it sucks. Isn’t this along the same lines as what you were scumreading and voting Amy for?

Aneinen- the only two posts I remember of yours are the 2 “catch up” posts where you just give us a rundown of what happened since you last posted with a little bit of analysis at the end. Are you familiar with the term IIoA? You disagree with a read, do go on! Jesus I hate all of your posts, just read 118 and I wanted to gouge my eyes out.

Trust tell: I didn't tell him to just notify the mod, I told him to actually confirm the 'trust tell' and then report it if it turns out to be something. As it is, that entire discussion was useless.

On droog: While what you're pointing out may be worthy of mockery, I'm not seeing it as alignment indicative if the lie isn't actually useful. Probably just a result of personal confusion or bad memory.

On Alchemist: I don't recall that satisfying me, so I'm not sure what you're asking. I said I didn't like it and tabled it when I moved to Siveure and realised they're prob not scum together.

On Hayate: Good point, I didn't take much note of that at first since I was more focused on setup spec at the time. Will take into account when reading Ankamius.

On reads, myself, and Amy: Not really sure what you're asking here either? My default question for someone who's doing nothing or being useless is "Any reads?", and I don't believe it's ever too early to get very basic reads. On Amy, I think you're misreading my ISO, don't recall scumreading her for asking questions. I scumread her for multiple fishy statements that I can go dig up again if you'd like.

On Aneninen: Meh, I don't really have a problem with his playstyle.

[Mathdino]

No ideer. I have an inkling of a mental note that said they may not be scum together, but that may just be sleep deprivation doubt. I don't have the time to go through any ISOs tonight since I'm going to bed after I do some stuff, but I can do that tomorrow.

Mental note to do this after taking care of some other games.

[Mathdino]

What? Not understanding the above post. You're unvoting wgeurts for associatives??

[Mathdino]

Ugh, last thing I was planning to do was huge ISO of Alchemist and Anen but I fell asleep before doing that. Twice. Procrastination.

More comfortable lynching Alchemist. Anen's whole softclaim thing is actually giving him slight townpoints.

Aneninen

, can you
A. semi-prove you are town tomorrow and/or
B. have your plan done by tomorrow?

[Mathdino]

This game seems set up so that whatever role is picked it can be twisted to make it seem like a scumbag got a town role. Softclaims aren't going to cut it. Especially after claiming to have crumbed it before hand.

If he follows through though, perhaps. There are certainly some roles that are more confirmable than others.

[Mathdino]

All we're gonna get from Aneninen is a PR claim. If you guys are okay with lynching without a claim, so be it, but I don't want people to get cold feet on this wagon right before the deadline and end up with a NL.

[Mathdino]

I refuse to lynch a PR as a compromise lynch.

Would much prefer Siveure if we HAVE to get a lynch through. I'll be around tomorrow to switch wagons if necessary.

[Mathdino]

And deadline in 1 day ^_^

[Mathdino]

I'm currently townreading Aneninen.

[Mathdino]

Aneninen

, suppose you're a vengeful and you're lynched. Who do you shoot?

Suppose you're a 1-shot vig. Who do you shoot? Would you be open to town leashing you?

[Mathdino]

Not enough time. Plus, it'd basically be a policy lynch, which is hard to do for a deadline lynch.

I also want to see how players react to Anen actually. Like I said, I'll be around to hammer if necessary tomorrow.

[Mathdino]

While his lack of explanation as to his hopping on and off the Siv wagon is annoying, I'm not scumreading it.

Venrob:

Please explain what you were talking about when you unvoted Siveure-- "I have my reasons."

[Mathdino]

I can agree with droog in that my reads are going haywire. Very much townreading Anen's behaviour in the past couple pages, and the only reason I'd switch to Siv is to avoid lynching a PR. But Alchemist isn't looking like scum about to get lynched.

My vote will stand.

[Mathdino]

Because that's not as strong as the townvibes I'm getting from Anen and I'm confident you can fake your current behaviour.

[Mathdino]

Because I've been getting townvibes from Siv ever since he prematurely claimed, but I stuck with him because I convinced myself he was the best option since he was VT.

[Mathdino]

Doc is only chosen once or no times at all. Otherwise RB is a strong scum role, The likelihood that there are 2 doc picks, especially in the top 4 players, is rather low.

[Mathdino]

...we're not. But I think Siv is town. Sooooo...

[Mathdino]

History of Doc Picks:

Open 542: Doc was 3rd in the draft order, no one else picked it.
Open 518: RB was taken by scum, 8th in the draft order, no one else picked it (hi Siv).
Open 506: Doc was 4th in the draft order, no one else picked it (hi Siv).
Open 486: RB was taken by scum, 3rd in the draft order. Other picks unknown.
Open 472: Doc was not taken.
Open 427: Doc was 7th in the draft order. Other picks are unknown.

So it's usually one doc pick per game. Notable that 542 had a town doc 3rd in the draft order, so your logic's a bit shoddy, Siv.

Advocating a lack of scumhunting is controversial. It's not scummy just because it's controversial. Why is it more likely from scum than town?

Like, if it just gets suspicion and does nothing else, it's indicative of a lack of foresight. Which alignment is more likely to not plan ahead how people react to their words? Especially something controversial?

This argument is literally one of the worst I've ever seen, mostly because you're saying what scum do and what town do and applying it to yourself.

Funny posts to make about a player you're townreading. Even funnier that the logic you called shoddy is what you're using to defend your decision now.

Calling logic shoddy isn't the same as scumreading. His arguments this game have mostly sucked, but that doesn't make him scum.

Otherwise, I realised that one doc pick per game pretty much makes sense simply because Siveure IS that doc pick.

[Mathdino]

The lynch is probably gonna be up to Aneninen, Amy, and droog.

[Mathdino]

Info lynch is better than no lynch. Sorry, Siv. Alchemist ain't happenin and neither is Anen.

VOTE: Siveure
Will reread the game at night with the idea that Anen is town. If Siv flips town, we're gonna have issues.

[Mathdino]

That's one more than a lynch.

[Mathdino]

Also don't know why I'm being voted. Want to lynch in {Aneninen, Alchemist}. Need to reread game. Little time.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: droog

Wheeee~

Prod dodge, my method of producing content is asking you to explain your vote.

I can't get into this game.

[Mathdino]

Hypothesis I've been thinking about: The NK actually points pretty strongly to Alchemist and possibly Ankamius and DEFINITElY the two of them together not being scum. I find it likely that scum would use their highest draft to either go for the JK or go for the vig, and there haven't been any vig shots. Thinking scum left them alive as today's lynch targets.

As such, I really need to rethink my reads, especially on farside since that never was too strong. Thinking going back to square one with Flubber and Amy would be a good idea.

[Mathdino]

Formerfish's slot is town.

/phoneposting

[Mathdino]

Alright, after much thought and 0 catching up, I'm going to
VOTE: Ankamius

Will explain more later, along with rereading the thread and some reads lists based on the draft order.

Just realised something as well: If Hayate Yagami's slot is scum, it leaves open the possibility of 2 scum picking the same number, so we'll have to watch out for that just in case. Also note that davesaz continued to push the notion that no one is conftown due to picking the same number as scum.

[Mathdino]

Also, Aneninen is town, fuck you if you ask why. I find it likely there was scum on his wagon, but I can't remember who was on his wagon so I'll go and check real quick.

[Mathdino]

Votecount 1.17

Siveure DtTrikyp

(5): Alchemist21, Ankamius, davesaz, Venrob, wgeurts

Aneninen

(4): Amy Farrah Fowler, droog, Siveure DtTrikyp, Formerfish

Alchemist21

(3): farside22, Mathdino, Flubbernugget

Not Voting

(2): Aneninen, TheAdrienC

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2014-12-07 08:00:00)

Aneninen is LA
Venrob is V/LA until December 8
Amy Farrah Fowler is V/LA until December 7

Siv's town, Former's town. droog as a townread has been weakening lately out of gut, but of these, I think Amy's slot is the most likely scum on Anen's wagon. It's possible that both Amy AND droog are scum actually, having not picked the same number, but I'm shelving that for now.

FoS: Amy

ALSO I'M BACK IN BUSINESS FOLKS, GIMME A SEC FOR A READS LIST.
PUMPED.
WOOT.

[Mathdino]

Alchemist21

- 4

davesaz - 6

Ankamius

, Hayate Yagami - 8

Siveure DtTrikyp - 13

Venrob

- 15

Aneninen

- 1

Formerfish

, Romitelli - 1

Victor

, Amy Farrah Fowler - 3

farside22

- 3

Mathdino - 5

wgeurts

- 5

Flubbernugget

- 2

Adrien

, gangsta_duck41 - 2

droog

- 2

This is not going to be in a sensible order. I'm going to wipe all previous reads I had for these purposes, since I've since forgotten why exactly I was suspecting Alch/Anen for if Siv flipped town. Also need to check who actually supported that associative of mine since I find it likely they're all town by now.

Aneninen

: TOWN, FUCK YOUR WAGON

Alchemist

: 51 is a good attempt to sort alignments based on meta. His vote on wgeurts was my initial reason to scumread him. Note: Alchemist and wgeurts are NOT scum together, that was not a distancing vote and it follows very well from his early game. And his results, while not full of substance, are legit. Given that he and wgeurts aren't scum together, 177 also looks pretty legit in that Alch chose to scumread things other than the meta point I brought up.
209 is interesting.
Actually never mind I reread it a couple times and it looks pretty town. Moving on.
Alright, so 284 I

think

was my initial reason for saying there was scum in {Alchemist, Siveure}; it seems policy lynch-ish. Tabling this for now.
Wait shit never mind it was 320.
Wow I was stupid for continuing to suspect Alchemist for that (THIS FOLKS IS WHY YOU REREAD).
See, the problem with Alscumist saying something like that is the statement makes no fucking sense. Siveure clearly did not get his chosen role, and Alchemist appeared to prepare to go after defenders that never ended up appearing. Also, the entire preparation was nullified with Siv's flip.
Stand by the sentiment that Alchemist reacted very townishly to being almost lynched.
D2 play: Nothing stands out. The comment on Siveure's wagon probably containing all town is very strange to me but unless all 3 scum are on the wagon I don't see much scum motivation in it.

wgeurts

: why the fuck did i call him town (note to self: go find out why)
i was expecting to write a towncase on him
goddammit
134 was a sketchy unvote that seemed concerned about people's perception of him. Then he called Flubber's vote on Amy opportunistic. But then I did a thing and ctrl+F'd "Amy" in his ISO. Guess what? I found a whole lot of him talking about Amy's wagon and votes on Amy but NOT ONCE did he give a single read on her. And then in 763 he encourages votes on Amy but still gives no thoughts on her.

What's your read on Amy? Not her replacement, what's your read on her?

This overconfidence on Siveure is exactly the thing I was seeing in his scum game. And then his response to my argument in 379... even if his misconception was true, it's still the strangest thing to scumread and it's pretty opportunistic. His conception was essentially "You call me town and are buddying me but you say I'm scum no matter what Siv flips." Like these are fundamentally incompatible and there's no scum motivation in doing those things in the first place.
In 441 he gives his top scumreads: {Siveure, Romitelli, Adrien}. The first 2 are town, haven't read Adrien so idk about that. Then in 445 he follows up on his earlier reads list with some meta on Flubber, Siv, Romi, and Adrien. A lot of it was without substance honestly and was entirely unconvincing. Seems more for the purpose of justifying wgeurts's reads than for presenting said reads to the thread.
Then his comments on me weird me out: "Damn it dino, don't make us lynch you in my third(?) game with you." "You're doing a good job of making people suspicious, I think it's however incorrect. The amount of effort you're putting in would be odd as scum."
His unvote and vote of Siveure actually ring pretty town to me. No one voted Siveure in between, and all that really did happen to influence that was Siveure wagon hopping. So it DOES make sense from a town POV.
D2 play: I have no idea what the fuck he's doing. Like almost every single post is bad or scummy in some way. I can expand on this if anyone likes but his D2 play is material that'd make me go for the "too scummy to be scum" argument. I'm not sure what to think. So I'll keep my vote on Ankamius and leave wgeurts as actually way scummier than I thought he was.

MORE NEXT POST

[Mathdino]

Also, Aneninen is town, fuck you if you ask why. I find it likely there was scum on his wagon, but I can't remember who was on his wagon so I'll go and check real quick.

Why?

fuck you

[Mathdino]

Any special reason you didn't act on this idea of pressuring people? I find it to be very passive, and the one liners since then are even worse.
VOTE: wgeurts

UNVOTE: amy farrah fowler

Really not feeling this wagon any more.

I don't think conflicting or contradictory opinions makes her scummy, and there's not an enormous amount otherwise.

Also, Anen's latest post looks really confbiasy. So what if she's not scumhunting?

IN OTHER NEWS, dave has put down a non-rvs vote. This is BIG NEWS. Lets support this!

VOTE: wgeurts

VOTE: guts

Sheeping dino. I town read him and I suck at mafia right now.

This was too easy. Getting cold feet about the wgeurts wagon. I think there's scum in the above.
UNVOTE: wgeurts
Call it pseudoscience but wagons form easier on town than on scum. Gonna think about this and regroup.

Jesus, talk about confirmation bias. Looks like since I haven't reread the game at all my reads have been more static than I'd like.

It goes without saying that 2 of those people were town and my gut and heebjeebies were probably wrong.

[Mathdino]

Adrien:

Lurker, but nothing really stands out to me and his thought process looks natural, so can someone explain why he's being scumread? I haven't read through D2 in chrono order, so ignore that if there's already been an answer. Probably town.

Romitelli/Formerfish:

Romitelli was a lurker, but he replaced out so that activity issue is pretty much null. In a vacuum, 159 and 234 look good though, the main issue was the fact that he wasn't engaged in the main issues. So that leans slightly town.
Formerfish's first catchup post was very townish (I won't say good since I disagree with some points, but it's townish) and fits my overall impression of him: Wants to get reads. He's been consistent with this for the entirety of D2. His tunneling of Venrob is kind of annoying but I haven't looked over Venrob yet so I'll see if that has merit. Not really consistent with scum, his play. Town.

Amy/Victor:

k so I forewent trying to read Amy after the initial suspicion due to our nice power trio of wagons {Alchemist, Aneninen, Siveure} getting all the attention. The fact of the matter is, Amy's early play is still scummy, and the funniest thing is the reason I suspected her for that stuff was that Victor acted the exact same way in his early scumgame: Throwing out strange questions without really giving reads and general mudslinging. And it took until ISO #8, post 74 for her to actually go and say that she was considering some actions scummy.
Then 201 is a really scummy defence due to the strawmanning and the question about research. And then 206 was actually pretty good. And then her response to Aneninen in 239 seems pretty consistent with town (note: not inconsistent with scum necessarily). And then she ends her ISO with some fairly scummy posts, dominated by her general inability to form scumreads except on Romitelli and Aneninen who are town. Leaning scum.

Flubbernugget:

I'm compelled to be consistent with my logic about the Amy/wgeurts/Siveure wagons but honestly, this guy, while annoying, is probably town. His D2 play is again, annoying, but probably town.
Flubbernugget please contribute more, this isn't a free pass to keep pulling that shit.

Venrob:

Ugh, okay, this ISO is bad, but this is another kind of guy I'd like to meta before I even attempt to read this shit. He's probably not scum with wgeurts, so by associatives town, otherwise, null.

Has anyone played with Venrob before?

oh joy now i have to read ISOs of droog(spamposter)/farside(wallposter)
I'M GOING IN FOLKS
WISH ME LUCK
OH GOD NOOOOOOO

[Mathdino]

Dino: your going to have to explain that town read on adrien better.
All I see is a player voting and explaining Jack shit.

I can't really explain what 'natural thought process' means. In context, Adrien's been the opposite of active. I'm not sure how much of a scumtell that is. Regardless, if you look through his ISO, he explained his Flubber vote, had good thoughts on the Siv wagon, 593 in particular is good, and I don't really see anything unexplained about his D2 play, seems pretty consistent with town.
Explain your scumread and I might listen. How would you explain how he acted around the Siv/Alchemist/Aneninen wagons? At the moment I'm treating these 3 as all town, keep in mind, so lemme know if your perspective differs.

I'm not sure how I feel about that above post. I know Victor has to catch up, but it looks like instead of focusing on reading and catching up, he put more energy into questioning things that have been answered already. Most, if not all, of the questions he asks can be found by reading through the thread.

I just am not a fan of catch ups like that. To broken and disjointed. I really don't want to have to click a hyperlink to see what he is referencing and then decifer his posts to actually make sense. And how can he possibly keep track of who answers what questions. I don't see him actually looking for answers here, just acting like he is.

Can definitely agree with this. I'll respond to each of his individual points in a sec but these kinds of strangely suspicious questions that don't really point out scummy things are both how Amy played and how he played in O575 (wgeurts, would appreciate your thoughts on this).

Mehhh. I don't feel like PbPing farside and droog. They're probably town regardless, with farside as one of my weakest townreads and droog as a medium one.

[Mathdino]

Droog - I've never seen anyone PEdit in rvs just to get on wagon.

Have you seen scum do this?

9 - MathDino - This is my first time playing this setup, but I find it noteworthy that you tried to get a good draft slot even if you failed.

Wow. It's this kind of question that almost tries to paint something as scummy just because it stands out. He did the same thing in 575 when I asked for someone's meta early on and he's like "I find it weird that you're asking for meta this early".

13 - Droog - I read this question as Droog missing Rom's rvs and trying to go after for it.

Legit.

19 - MathDino - On a scale of 1-10 how serious was this?

Pretty serious. The above had a seriousness level of 2, btw.

20 - Droog - Yeah he did think, which seems odd considering he intentionally shifted his vote to follow Rom.

30 - MathDino - Dislike this thinking from MathDino. Town have as much reason to want those roles as scum.

Strange how evidence proves you wrong.

32 - MathDino - So every scumteam picked Jailkeeper. That seems like the one constant you should have picked up on.

I did pick up on this. Unfortunately tracker is also a strong role and is also likely to be picked by town. Meanwhile, vig/vengeful, not so much.

34 - Hayate - You see this is the kind of analyse I like.

35 - MathDino - And this roletalk has gone past the point of useful ice breaker to the point of trying to tease role info. Lean on scum on MD.

???

41 - MathDino - And you jit just keeps getting worse.

?????

44 - MathDino - This post just seemed like an attempt to throw down some artificial reads so he go after Amy. I kinda feel like she had something.

Your confbias is showing. Guessing you're scum though.

45 - Farside - Like this post from Farside.

62 - Alchemist21 - Where the blue hell did this vote come from?

Already answered.

63 - MathDino - That said, he got an interesting response from Dino. It kinda reads like a defense.

Except it doesn't. At all. Enjoying how almost every post I made back then was scummy.

97 - Alchemist21 - What made you think Wgeurts wouldn't get involved in theory talk? And why haven't you been able to form any reads yet?

100 - droog - Why was this relvent?

102 - Anenin - Huh? She said the roles were not scummy, why is it that she ignored the fact that taking the roles prevents scum from having them, rather than either that she didn't mention choose to mention it or simply consider it. I was a little unsure before but I think you were simply looking to jump on a popular wagon in 98.

115 - MathDino - Now why are you so keen on rvs behaviour? Have you ever caught scum through rvs?

Okay this REALLY stands out to me. Above after 97 you ask Alchemist why he had no reads yet, but now you're criticising my trying to get very early reads. NICE. GOING. I don't remember if I've ever caught scum through RVS, but it's a damn nice place to start instead of being useless, no?

118 - Anenenin - This condensed case feels forced, and seems like overcompensation to explain why he was on the Amy wagon.

So on one hand, I was making a forced attempt to throw down artificial reads, and on the other hand, Aneninen is overcompensating and putting TOO MUCH to explain why he was voting you? You're kidding.

Please note my response to 115.

[Mathdino]

Right, so uh

1. The 'unknown reason' was given way before that post literally the post you quoted right after.
2. Alchemist also switched back and forth and IIRC I did as well. I think the general consensus was their involvement in the wgeurts wagon was equally scummy.
3. Remind me how the unvote and revote has scum motivation?
4. Dunno where the Anen vote came from. Scum motivation?
5. I concede buddying Ankamius since I think Anka is scum.

As far as I'm concerned, I think scum is Ankamius, {wgeurts, Venrob}, and {Victor, Flubber, Adrien}, and if I had to call it it'd be Ankamius, wgeurts, and Amy/Victor.

[Mathdino]

Why doesn't it make sense?

[Mathdino]

As per wgeurts's request:

(Key is '->' is a vote, 'XX' is an unvote)

Spoiler: D1 VCIIoA

Romitelli

->

Aneninen

, 1, RVS

droog

->

Flubber

, 1, RVS

droog

XX

Flubber

, 0

droog

->

Aneninen

, 2, RVS wagon

Mathdino

->

wgeurts

, 1, same draft number -_-

gangsta_duck/Adrien

->

Romitelli

, 1, RVS

Alchemist

->

Mathdino

, 1, he said he was gonna RVS me last game we were together

davesaz

->

gangsta_duck/Adrien

, 1, RVS

Flubber

->

Alchemist

, 1, top of the draft order and he was genuinely fucking pissed

Mathdino

XX

wgeurts

, 0

Mathdino

->

Flubber

, 1, fakeness

Hayate/Ankamius

->

Flubber

, 2, fakeness

Aneninen

->

Siveure

, 1, RVS

wgeurts

->

Mathdino

, 2, same reason as Alchemist

Venrob

->

Siveure

, 2, RVS

Alchemist

XX

Mathdino

, 1

Alchemist

->

wgeurts

, 1, pressure

farside

->

Alchemist

, 2, various reasons and gut

Mathdino

XX

Flubber

, 1

Mathdino

->

Amy

, 1, various reasons

Siveure

->

Amy

, 2, sheeping Math

Aneninen

XX

Siveure

, 1

Aneninen

->

Amy

, 3, here if you want to know why

droog

->

Amy

, 4, sheeping Math's case

wgeurts

XX

Mathdino

, 0, "oh crap your not scum"

Flubber

XX

Alchemist

, 1

Flubber

->

Amy

, 5, unknown

wgeurts

->

Aneninen

, 2, minicase

Mathdino

XX

Amy

, 4

Mathdino

->

wgeurts

, 2, metatell

Venrob

XX

Siveure

, 0, unRVSing

Romitelli

XX

Aneninen

, 1, unRVSing

wgeurts

XX

Aneninen

, 0, 'reacting well'

davesaz

XX

Adrien

, 0

davesaz

->

wgeurts

, 3, "very passive"

Siveure

XX

Amy

, 3, "not feeling this wagon anymore"

Siveure

->

wgeurts

, 4, sheeping davesaz

Flubber

XX

Amy

, 2

Flubber

->

wgeurts

, 5, sheeping Math

Mathdino

XX

wgeurts

, 4, "too easy"

wgeurts

->

Siveure

, 1, 249

Alchemist

XX

wgeurts

, 3

Alchemist

->

Flubber

, 2, "This guy has been unproductive for town"

Mathdino

->

Siveure

, 2, wagon hopping

Alchemist

XX

Flubber

, 1, meta

Alchemist

->

Siveure

, 3, wagon hopping

Venrob

->

Flubber

, 2,

droog

XX

Amy

, 1, "i like the way amy handled herself"

droog

->

Aneninen

, 2, sheeping Amy

Ankamius

XX

Flubber

, 1

Ankamius

->

Siveure

, 4, "Siveure trying to discredit Mathdino leaving the wagon is slimy as hell. Nothing about his ISO really gives me any good iggly wigglies either."

davesaz

XX

wgeurts

, 2

davesaz

->

Siveure

, 5, case

Aneninen

XX

Amy

, 0, "What if that was a town-flail from Amy?"

Venrob

XX

Flubber

, 0

Venrob

->

Siveure

, 6, "Well, Siv is another person I am willing to vote, so since this looks like it's happening..."

droog

->

Aneninen

, 2, forgot he already voted him

Siveure

XX

wgeurts

, 1

Siveure

->

Alchemist

, 1, part sheeping part thinking he's scum roleblocker

Venrob

XX

Siveure

, 5, in order to metaread Siv

Venrob

->

Siveure

, 6, meta

wgeurts

XX

Siveure

, 5

wgeurts

->

Mathdino

, 1, misreading

wgeurts

XX

Mathdino

, 0, realisation

wgeurts

->

Siveure

, 6

Siveure

XX

Alchemist

, 0

Siveure

->

Aneninen

, 3, unknown

farside

XX

Aneninen

, 2

farside

->

droog

, 1, case

farside

XX

droog

, 0

farside

->

Flubber

, 1, case

Siveure

XX

Aneninen

, 1

Siveure

->

Alchemist

, 1, minicase

Mathdino

XX

Siveure

, 5, "I'll decide who to vote after I come back but I'm beginning to think I was only hanging onto Siv since he already claimed and I wanted an info lynch."

farside

XX

Flubber

, 0

farside

->

Alchemist

, 2, there are probably reasons somewhere but I'm too lazy to go find them so have her votepost

Mathdino

->

Alchemist

, 3, various reasons and thought Siv was town

Adrien

XX

Romitelli

, 0

Adrien

->

Flubber

, 1, top scumread

Siveure

XX

Alchemist

, 2

Siveure

->

Romitelli

, 1, lurking (?)

Siveure

XX

Romitelli

, 0, getting replaced

Siveure

->

Alchemist

, 3

droog

XX

Aneninen

, 0

droog

->

Mathdino

, 1, catchup/reread

Siveure

XX

Alchemist

, 2, whatever these reasons are

Siveure

->

Aneninen

, 1

Adrien

XX

Flubber

, 0, to ask Math questions

wgeurts

XX

Siveure

, 4, "Doesn't seem so scummy to me anymore, I'm going to meta his more recent games."

Flubber

XX

wgeurts

, 0, "I know it's pre flip associatives but it's bothering me." and thought he was unvoting Siv

Flubber

->

Alchemist

, 3, "Fuck it"

Siveure

XX

Aneninen

, 1

Siveure

->

Alchemist

, 4, "I'd really like to not get lynched."

droog

XX

Mathdino

, 0

droog

->

Aneninen

, 2, not liking Siv/Alch wagons

Siveure

XX

Alchemist

, 3

Siveure

->

Aneninen

, 3, ??

wgeurts

->

Siveure

, 5, "He's buddying, sheeping and getting away with it. I started to null read him but this recent play screams scum to me."

Formerfish

->

Aneninen

, 4, "based off his recap posts because it looks like scum busy work trying to appear active. "

Formerfish

XX

Aneninen

, 3, to not be on a wagon with Venrob

Formerfish

->

Alchemist

, 4

Adrien

->

Alchemist

, 5, "I'm more comfortable with Alchemist then the other two."

Siveure

XX

Aneninen

, 2

Siveure

->

Alchemist

, 6

Siveure

XX

Alchemist

, 5

Siveure

->

Aneninen

, 3

Aneninen

->

Siveure

, 6, presumably to get a lynch?

Formerfish

XX

Alchemist

, 3

Formerfish

->

Siveure

, 7, HAMMERTIME

I don't actually have anything to say on this. If you wanna use it, go ahead.
Will make one for D2 when we near the end.

[Mathdino]

Number of votes.

[Mathdino]

Oh right.

Yeah so
that's pretty much all setup spec and NKA
and it's detrimental to Alchemist to talk about that
so if you'd like I can go through his ISO and try to analyse him without confbias.
Regardless, would want your go-ahead before I go down the aforementioned route.

[Mathdino]

Also based on some stuff I found in Hayate's posts.

[Mathdino]

Until I get approval for explaining Ankamius (and since I'm not gonna be able to push him without making that argument) I'm gonna switch to 2nd scumread.

UNVOTE: Anka
VOTE: wgeurts

[Mathdino]

green crayons it's fine

venrob replaced out because he's confscum anyway

droog has a guilty on him

[Mathdino]

right now we're trying to look through his ISO for his partners

you can help if you like but it's cool if you just active lurk

NO ONE PUT HIM AT L-1 PLEASE

[Mathdino]

yeah i'm kinda surprised he didn't at least check to see the condition of the slot he was replacing into

[Mathdino]

You should all get off the Venrob wagon now.

wgeurts wagon go go go.

[Mathdino]

@Alchemist: Okay, see, my case relies on a few assumptions. And honestly, outside of setup, my read on wgeurts is stronger than any read on Ankamius so I could very well be wrong.

My theory is that Hayate, the guy Ankamius replaced, he repeatedly found evidence of jailkeeper being a role almost always picked by scum.

I think Hayate, in an effort to avoid being the obvious scum jailkeeper, decided to go for roleblocker instead and none of the scum went for JK.

I think davesaz was killed to implicate you.

Naturally, this all rests on you not being the doctor, which is why it's possibly compromising.

[Mathdino]

Votecount 2.9

Venrob

(4): Formerfish, wgeurts, Alchemist21, TheAdrienC

This wagon is so scum motivated I don't even

I mean for Formerfish it's damn consistent.

I'm reading town on Alchemist.

90% sure there's scum in {wgeurts, Adrien}.

Also apologies for outing GC's role, didn't take that into consideration.
Still.
He's very nearly conftown now.
About as useful as a PR.

[Mathdino]

I'm questioning how much utility there'd be to ask GC to reveal the role he picked.

Would recommend he not say any more on himself until we get more out of this discussion.

Thoughts, people?

[Mathdino]

dino you looked at the old games right?
what choices did scum make in those?

This heightened my curiosity so I decided to go check myself. I checked the last six because I thought it'd give me a decent sample size. (Links go to either first page, if maf got all three picks, or mod post that provides draft selections, if not.

Spoiler:

Open 542: Scum (Nachomamma8, gertaitm, STXHLGaiden) pick Jailkeeper, Universal Backup, Neighborizer
Open 506: Mafia (Deckard, Smudger, Cade) pick 1-shot vig, Mafia Jailkeeper, Mafia Vengeful.
Open 518: Mafia (Karnnage, Jennifer, Siveure DtTrikyp) pick Jailkeeper, Universal Backup, Roleblocker
Open 468 (Had to look through the Scum QT): Scum (Bojo, SafetyDance, Remembering Sunday) pick Roleblocker, Jailkeeper, (Can't find the third. Looks like it might have been Rolecop?)
Open 472: Scum (Siveure DtTrikyp, The Acting Method, Sir Arthur Dayne) pick Jailkeeper, 1 Shot vig, 1-shot Redirector
Open 427 (iam's chosen role can be found in scum QT) Scum (iamausername, pieceofpecanpie, Cobberflone) pick Vengeful, Role Cop, and redirector.

So, tallying it up

Spoiler:

1 shot vig: 2
Jailkeeper: 5
Vengeful: 2
Rolecop: 1-2
Roleblocker: 2
Universal Backup: 2
Neighborizer: 1
redirector: 2

So I might look askance at somebody that picked Jailkeeper, especially early, but other than that I think it's going to end up being a playstyle/team choice and not particularly illustrative one way or the other.

(Double check my math, because I'm not very good at it. ^_^;)

Pedit: Damn, got ninja'd. NOT GOING TO LET MY WORK GO TO WASTE THO

Mathdino looks really town thus far so that's good.
And yeah, in one Scum QT scum explicitly said that they didn't want to double-up in order to avoid crippling themselves, and that seems to be a pretty common POV, looking at the number choices. So I feel safe extrapolating here.

The post for those interested.

Ok, I skimmed through the game and got some gut reads for you all.

Town:
Mathdino
droog
Amy Farrah Fowler
Alchemist21
Venrob

Scum:
Siveure DtTrikyp
davesaz
Romitelli

Null:
wgeurts
Aneninen (FYI: probably never going to change)
TheAdrienC
farside22
Flubbernugget

All his scumreads are town lol
And he mixes Amy in with a bunch of wide townreads for shoddy reasoning that he explains later.

Amy wagon at this point is bad. The way she handles the pressure is town.
Siveure trying to discredit Mathdino leaving the wagon is slimy as hell. Nothing about his ISO really gives me any good iggly wigglies either.
Something about Venrob's reads sounds town. Probably because of the Amy townread. The feeling I get from his play is that he wouldn't just close off that avenue so easily as scum.
Romitelli does a good job at trying to appear like he's doing something while not doing anything.

Those are the main things that stood out to me.

This post is basically just townread-defending and lurker-hunting. His reads on both Siveure and Venrob are based off of their reads on his townreads.

This is town-Alchemist.

wat

Venrob's abundance of fluff in #361 is really ugggh.

Most of the rest of this argument feels really nullish too. The lack of really anyone else having any posts in that timeframe doesn't help.

So yeah, that's about all I got relating to recent events. Alchemist is town, Venrob is scum.

And then it becomes lurkerhunting again. More low hanging fruit.

Top 3 scumreads:

Siveure DtTrikyp: My ISO really shouldn't leave any room for doubt as to why I'm scumreading him
Romitelli: Says nothing when he contributes. Pretty much classic scumlurking.
Flubbernugget/davesaz: Both are pretty weak reads overall and roughly equivalent in read strength; Flubber for #469/470 and davesaz for the earlier posts in his ISO I mentioned before.

Literally every one of these except davesaz is low hanging fruit.
Hypothesis (tinfoil theory): Ankamius's slot has issues with davesaz because davesaz was right about the whole setup spec discussion, and 2 scum did in fact pick the same number for WIFOM purposes. Unlikely, but possible. Also would be a damn good reason to kill.

Woop, fixed my laptops internet.
Now, seriously (half-policy):
VOTE: Venrob
I don't see any posts from him, his whole thing looks staged as well.

UNVOTE: droog
VOTE: wgeurts

This post and his last one are both really bugging me; this one for the timing and fake-looking reasoning, and the last one because... wat. He thinks there's one scum being voted when there's 5 wagons of two people and asks someone else to do VCA? Then votes someone for doing nothing?

I really don't care that his laptop's internet was out and he was phoneposting. He got his internet back with this post and what he decided to do with it doesn't sit right with me at all.

Hypocrisy at its finest, and this isn't even the strangest thing wgeurts has done.

Now someone tell me why wgeurts-Ankamius scumteam doesn't work, because it seems to work pretty damn well from looking at this.

[Mathdino]

Hi GC! You going to start stalking me around? :p

@dino: I'd like to see what GC says. I've seen scum claim vt as a replacement before so his reaction is null for me.
On a side note: I totally read a game for 4 or 5 pages to see if I want to replace in. I thought I was the only one doing that.

farside, if he claims VT, he's either VT or goon. This is a confirmable thing. The setup makes it easy for any of the PR slots to claim something that looks town.

The only question is what Venrob went for. Would have some serious issues if he went for vig or something but that seems unlikely.

Now see, if we have him claim now, if he's town he'll claim honestly ofc. If he's scum, he'll have to claim as either what Ven actually went for, or any of the established PRs above him in the list.
Which means having him claim later MIGHT be negative utility since he can just go for the towniest PR above him. Like cop if there's a cop above him.
At the same time, having him claim now outs more PRs.
Regardless, the specifics of his claim isn't what makes him town. That reaction was town as fuck.

Edit: Ooh, interesting. But here's the flaw. Remember when I kept saying dave and Siveure weren't scum together? The very fact that dave said that he inferred a different claim meant dave did not pick doc. Scum isn't dumb enough to gloss over crumbs and discussion of setup.
So if they were looking for the doc,

why kill davesaz?

[Mathdino]

Glad to have you back.

I still think Ank is Town based on my prior experience with him.

You had yet to present any reasons why Ank was town, I question your saying 'I still think'.

Can you provide your own read on Ankamius?

[Mathdino]

Hayate's posts were almost all setup.

Setup spec is one of the easiest things to fake in my experience. There's almost always

that guy

who waltzes in and nearly breaks the setup. Scum often like to be that guy preemptively. In essence, while the discussion was

useful to have

and was probably one we

needed to have

, it should read null on the players involved in it.

Why are you still on the Venrob wagon?
*shamless plug for the wgeurts wagon*

[Mathdino]

I wasn't aware "because I said I would" was present in the mafia honour code.

Prod acknowledged, will make an actual post later today.. christmas shopping day #1

Guys. Can we all, right here right now, put aside whatever petty disagreements we have and come together to burn this with fire if we don't see some sort of meaningful post by the end of the day?

I'm willing to join this wagon if he doesn't post today.

Venrob hasn't posted like he said he would, so I'll vote him.

VOTE: Venrob

Right, so he replaced out and clearly didn't have the time for this game.

So why are you pressuring a replacement that's
A. 99% likely to catch up in the next 24 hours, and
B. town as fuck?

You're doing these things because you think Flubber is scum? Why not just vote Flubber?

Anyway I wrote a mini case on wgeurts last page. I can go find it and sum it up in a sec.

[Mathdino]

wgeurts

: why the fuck did i call him town (note to self: go find out why)
i was expecting to write a towncase on him
goddammit
134 was a sketchy unvote that seemed concerned about people's perception of him. Then he called Flubber's vote on Amy opportunistic. But then I did a thing and ctrl+F'd "Amy" in his ISO. Guess what? I found a whole lot of him talking about Amy's wagon and votes on Amy but NOT ONCE did he give a single read on her. And then in 763 he encourages votes on Amy but still gives no thoughts on her.

What's your read on Amy? Not her replacement, what's your read on her?

This overconfidence on Siveure is exactly the thing I was seeing in his scum game. And then his response to my argument in 379... even if his misconception was true, it's still the strangest thing to scumread and it's pretty opportunistic. His conception was essentially "You call me town and are buddying me but you say I'm scum no matter what Siv flips." Like these are fundamentally incompatible and there's no scum motivation in doing those things in the first place.
In 441 he gives his top scumreads: {Siveure, Romitelli, Adrien}. The first 2 are town, haven't read Adrien so idk about that. Then in 445 he follows up on his earlier reads list with some meta on Flubber, Siv, Romi, and Adrien. A lot of it was without substance honestly and was entirely unconvincing. Seems more for the purpose of justifying wgeurts's reads than for presenting said reads to the thread.
Then his comments on me weird me out: "Damn it dino, don't make us lynch you in my third(?) game with you." "You're doing a good job of making people suspicious, I think it's however incorrect. The amount of effort you're putting in would be odd as scum."
His unvote and vote of Siveure actually ring pretty town to me. No one voted Siveure in between, and all that really did happen to influence that was Siveure wagon hopping. So it DOES make sense from a town POV.
D2 play: I have no idea what the fuck he's doing. Like almost every single post is bad or scummy in some way. I can expand on this if anyone likes but his D2 play is material that'd make me go for the "too scummy to be scum" argument. I'm not sure what to think. So I'll keep my vote on Ankamius and leave wgeurts as actually way scummier than I thought he was.

1. Self conscious early behaviour.
2. Incredibly sketchy behaviour toward Amy and her wagon, seemed to spend more time talking about votes on her than Amy herself.
3. Overconfidence meta.
4. Opportunism.
5. Repeatedly talking about all the meta he'd eventually go drudge up for people... ends up coming up with one or two sentences on each with no evidence nor compelling arguments.
6. Weirdness surrounding me in late D1 (and his misconception of me after my draft order spec post).
7. Literally all of his D2 play. ISO it. It's crap.

[Mathdino]

So because I dont feel like policying lynchbait, Im appeasing Venrobs slot? I dont understand what youre trying to say.

It was a standard replacement reaction test. GC surpassed expectations.

[Mathdino]

You guys know
I played along with Dino too
Right?

Oh mod just asked if I wanted in since I volunteered earlier.

On phone, haven't read game, but I'm VT.

So what's droog's line tomorrow when I flip green?

?

Yeah, thanks for that, you confirming the story really sold it to GC (I hope).

If GC is town, droog is likely also town.

[Mathdino]

beetlejuice beetlejuice

you called?

I'm only half online, doing laundry, playing Civ, checking MS every now and then for your new case.

Anything in particular?

[Mathdino]

I mean I guess I could rip them apart.
Not a bad way to wait for the wash.

On Flubbernugget

: This case is mostly IIoA, I mean hell, the "adds Venrob to scum list" (post 896) thing isn't even that scummy, and his suspicion is the opposite of well founded. The main issues with your points here is you haven't shown why it's inconsistent with town and you haven't shown the scum motivation in his multiple naked votes which boil down to playing like a jester. Because that's exactly what he's been doing, and you're reading him as someone who gives more shits about this game than he probably does.
A Flubber vote is a policy vote. Moving on.

On droog

: Meh, nothing to really comment on. I find it interesting that going after someone not widely scumread is a towntell in your book. I don't find that true at all.

On Alchemist

: Me reading your case on Alch:
"wat"
"wat hows that null"
"wat"
"hows that feel town wat"
>it just feels off
"WAT"
"no reads here"
"no read on this post
"wow 3 posts in a row with no analysis can we hit four OHMIGOD WE HIT 5 THAT'S A NEW RECORD FOLKS"

[Mathdino]

Alchemist

11 -

RVS vote on Dino.

51 -

Looks town motivated at first glance

however it is null.

I agree with his statements on the RVS votes on me and flubber though.

62 -

Odd, doesn't look like a RV. I'll look out for an explanation for this naked vote on me. Still null as this is the first vote on me and he hasn't yet explained it.

88 -

It was a pressure vote, still null though.

However I do like how he's trying to make discussion.

93 -

This makes sense and I feel like it's town with his earlier posts.

177 -

This post also feels town

although he is mistaken with me being scum and shooting me as vengeful.

209 -

Here alchemist is showing doubt on the amy wagon.

It also feels slightly town.

233 -

Alchemist questions me again on a contradiction of mine. He's not taking others thoughts on me and is pushing me for what he thinks looks scum to him about me. I like that.

272 -

Could be scum just going for an easy vote, I'm unsure.

278 and 282 -

His reasons for voting Siveure seem more legit than many other people who were/went on the wagon.

334 -

This looks odd to me. It just feels off.

General - His push on siv doesn't feel like a scum pushing a mis-lynch. He seemed rather confident in it and it looks like (a possibly conf-biased) town pushing a read their convinced of. I doubt scum would so blatantly push it,

747 -

I disagree here and I believe that we should remember this post if Alchemist flips scum for some reason.

758 -

Unlikely Dino/Alchemist team?

803 -

He's got a good point on Adrien here.

846 -

His whole droog-scum read feels town

however I disagree with it.

864 -

He let that read drop a little quickly.

998 -

His points on Flubber are true.

In general alchemist feels town although a lot of his posts feel a little off. He's less town than droog so:

1. Flubbernugget
   
2. Alchemist
   
3. Droog

in green is "i agree" "i disagree"
in red is "this is null", "this feels X" with no explanation, and general useless statements and IIoA
in bold is actual reads and analysis

congrats wgeurts
nice pbpa

[Mathdino]

Ankimus [s

Hayate[/s]]

Hayate

29 -

RV on Flubbernugget

34 -

This is an odd one and can be views from two perspectives: Scum trying to look town by joining and investing effort into analysis or town investing effort as a genuine town. I can't tell from this alone.

"This could be scum but it could also be town", nice analysis there

42 -

(S)he seems rather eager to participate in this discussion, same as above.

49 -

Seems a little fabricated? Or not? I really don't know.

lol'd

Hayate gets replaced with ankimus

297 -

Two of her scum reads are town and she's defending amy. She scum reads Siv (amy and siv were both at 3 votes). If he flips scum we should seriously consider lynching amy's slot.

red because it says nothing about ank's alignment

311 -

Votes siv putting him at 4 votes. His reasons for doing so are really weak however.

Slight scum.

366 -

Venrob goes from being town to scum in this post.

Venrob wasn't being voted at that point so this looks good

although it's odd he doesn't change votes.

383 -

Really terribly explained Davesaz scum read. Seems fake.

447 -

Seems like she's refusing to explain the siv scum read/vote. Possibly because it isn't actually real?

General- He conveniently lurks through Siv's lynch with a vote on him.

878 -

Votes me while there are no other votes on me. Seems slightly town motivated.

He's a lot less town then Alchemist but isn't at all as scummy as Flubber so:

1. Flubber
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. Alchemist
   
4. Droog

blue is my own edits

[Mathdino]

VictorDeAngblabla replacement of Amy

Amy

40 -

mm, odd.
No RV and she straight away attacks Dino with some weird setup spec rant. M'kay.

47 -

Apparently you can't form reads 47 posts into a game and it isn't even worth trying. Newb tells here along with 40 so there could be a possible newb scum here.

67 -

Actually she could be a newb town, this post fits that theory.

198 - Here we can see that she is an *online* mafia newb. I'll keep that in mind then for her coming posts.

201 -

This feels painfully like me in my first newbie game (although I was scum ) I kept summing up why I was being voted and (In my opinion) completely refuting all the arguments posed.

why are you :|ing at catching your own newbscum tells

206 -

She has a null siv read. I will remember this.

287 -

OMGUS on Anenin(eninenan?), doesn't feel like scum to me this post.

General - VLA up till day 2, this sucks as it would of provided a lot of information.

762 -

She seems to have read the game due to her comments at the bottom of this post. Why has she dropped her Anen read and why is Dino suddenly scum?
She's blatantly sheeping me and I don't like it. Slightly scummy.

VDA replaces Amy

944 -

Good starting catch up. Feels kind of town but I want more posts from him asap.

This slot feels rather null to me, I'm going to await VDA posts and I'll willing pressure him if he doesn't.

1. Flubber
   
2. Ankimus
   
3. VDA
   
4. Alchemist
   
5. Droog

dude this post was so legit
except for the fact
that victor is acting just like in the game where we played with scumhim
i'm really surprised you didn't notice this

[Mathdino]

Anen*n*n*n

HE'S TOWN, MOVING ON

ftfy

i will continue hard defending aneninen until either he gets killed or until he reveals everything
you don't have to agree with me
but i will just say
continuing to talk about aneninen is useless

[Mathdino]

beetlejuice beetlejuice

you called?

I'm only half online, doing laundry, playing Civ, checking MS every now and then for your new case.

Anything in particular?

So yer a civ player?

Civ 4 mostly, not a huge fan of Civ 5 combat implementation and especially its AI.

[Mathdino]

Yeah it replaced the stack of death with the fact that archers can fire over goddamn mountains and lakes the size of Michigan and the fact that you can't even fit an army within your empire without everyone getting pissed at you. Total War is the best any macroscopic civbuilding game is gonna get in terms of combat but the Civ engine obviously can't handle something like that.

Regardless.

Any thoughts on the fact that 90% of your PbPA is fairy dust? Like I'm not seeing where you're coming from at all with half your statements since it's not properly explained and it seems like doling out "This seems town" "this seems scum" etc.
Cut the chaff and get to your points.
In a few sentences for each, why are you ordering your scumspects like that?

[Mathdino]

Woop, fixed my laptops internet.
Now, seriously (half-policy):
VOTE: Venrob
I don't see any posts from him, his whole thing looks staged as well.

What was the other half?

[Mathdino]

4 days.

Y'all've gotta be kidding me.

I'd be cool with a wgeurts lynch, an Ankamius lynch, a Victor lynch, and a Flubber and Adrien one ONLY out of policy (i hate saying that).

Would NOT be okay with a GC lynch or an Alchemist lynch.

Mod, can we ask for a deadline extension due to the replacements?

[Mathdino]

I have given several wagons Dino
I have given several cases
How do you feel about animem

Already told you.

THE FUCKER'S TOWN, MOVING ON.

[Mathdino]

So because I dont feel like policying lynchbait, Im appeasing Venrobs slot? I dont understand what youre trying to say.

It was a standard replacement reaction test. GC surpassed expectations.

Alchemist's 1001 is appeasing your 999.

And having a reaction test with 0 creativity and being able to go "yup town" from it is not a townie thing to do.

Also VOTE: alchemist. He and adrian are scum but at least alchemist is here to party.

wat

So a more creative reaction test would've helped here? It's not like it was outside of the realm of reason to think a cop outed someone in this setup on D2.
On a sidenote, you seem like a mafia hipster. Congrats.

I'm going 'yup town' since I have scumreads elsewhere and I had a nagging suspicion that Venrob was lynchbait and he was correct in that he always plays like that (furthermore people kept voting him for lurking when he clearly had issues with his tech). So I confirmed that suspicion.

1001 and 999 are people working together in mafia. Is this strange to you? I'm townreading Alchemist now and he appears to be townreading me.

Also you have no case on anyone, so prove why it's not just 2 townies working together and talking over things.

[Mathdino]

Because it's a pet peeve, just wanna say

Ad hominem is not "You're wrong, therefore you're stupid." That's just an insult. A useless one in this game, but an insult nonetheless.
Ad hominem is "You have an IQ of 42, therefore you're wrong."
Ad hominem is not "You're disregarding a common reaction test, therefore you're a hipster."

Regardless, just because it's common doesn't mean it doesn't work. The only way it wouldn't work is if you believe GC read the thread and confirmed it was a reaction test before claiming his role. Otherwise he had no way of knowing it was a reaction test.

[Mathdino]

Yeah we don't want to be lynching me.

VOTE: wgeurts
VOTE: wgeurts
VOTE: wgeurts
VOTE: wgeurts

is that the hammer
lynch this

[Mathdino]

Yeah we don't want to be lynching me.

VOTE: wgeurts
VOTE: wgeurts
VOTE: wgeurts
VOTE: wgeurts

is that the hammer
lynch this

What's your case on me?
Why do you disagree with my ank and flubber cases?

i have answered literally all of these questions already

i don't disagree with your ank case
i just think your cases are full of shit

[Mathdino]

Because it's a pet peeve, just wanna say

Ad hominem is not "You're wrong, therefore you're stupid." That's just an insult. A useless one in this game, but an insult nonetheless.
Ad hominem is "You have an IQ of 42, therefore you're wrong."
Ad hominem is not "You're disregarding a common reaction test, therefore you're a hipster."

Regardless, just because it's common doesn't mean it doesn't work. The only way it wouldn't work is if you believe GC read the thread and confirmed it was a reaction test before claiming his role. Otherwise he had no way of knowing it was a reaction test.

I think this is possible. I don't see why with your wifom talks you dismiss it.

Also making shitty cases is a null tell. I could list many players sitewide that can't make a case worth a crap.

He's not COMPLETELY cleared of course but the premature claim along with the droog comment really sells it if he's scum.

I dismiss it for now because I wasn't a fan of the Venrob wagon in the first place as it was practically a policy lynch. I mean the dude provided examples of his play sucking in the majority of his games AND starting games off with talking about how his play sucks, along with the fact that he had reasons for not being around.

The entirety of his play should be null. Then GC walks in with one of the towniest possible responses to a reaction test.

So yeah, I'm going with town for now.

[Mathdino]

There's not much to weigh in on. Your content nowadays is "Math's reaction test is null" (

oh thanks, glad you refuted my townread on a guy

you haven't provided reads on

) and "Adrien and Alchemist are scum because I say so and because Alchemist did what Math asked him to."

So you wanna quit being useless and give us something to work with?

[Mathdino]

What do you think of him saying you're town?

Also if alchemist flips scum math is trying a really fucking blatant chainsaw.

I make nothing of it. I have a high tendency to be doled a townread when I'm really active.

You know what chainsaw means, right? Defending someone by calling their attacker scum?

You're not scum.

You're just being useless.

@GC: No questions, but for starters a basic reads list would be nice.

Edit: Meanwhile, you're misrepping me.

[Mathdino]

I already explained that; I didnt like the wagon anyway and I figured the reaction test would be a damn good way to confirm you as scum or get people off thw wagon.

Also it feels really genuine, along with the fact that you clearly read the thread way after the test. Also the response to me wondering why you replaced into confscum.

I thought of a question: do you think itd be protown to reveal what Ven picked? No ones picked up on that discussion and Im undecided.
Also reads list plox

[Mathdino]

And we dont have Ven here to explain his pick, so...

Its only useful to the extent of looking at who you cant be scum with, really.

[Mathdino]

Wait thats actually realky useful

What can scum do with it when the top 4 are already NK targets anyway?

[Mathdino]

Unless his phone records his voice as waaaay deeper than it is, I'm 99% sure Ankamius is a guy, lol.

This is that post where I'd switch to an Ankamius lynch due to agreeing with pretty much all of the above
but he's almost definitely a PR so we won't be able to get a claim or last words out of him before the deadline if he's replacing out.
Which SUCKS.

Mod, can you freeze the deadline until Ank's replacement?

[Mathdino]

As much as I'd like to go through the process with Ankamius, that's not viable unless you plan to lynch a slot with no claim/last words. If he has investigative results we're fucked lynching him.

Who are your lynch options right now?

Slashing Ankamius, mine are in order {wgeurts, Victor, Flubber (POLICY), Adrien (POLICY/COMPROMISE)}.

[Mathdino]

@droog: Half policy for lurking and not really doing much and half compromise. I wouldn't be sad to see him go but he's literally the last person I'd be willing to vote right next to the deadline to avoid NL. Still got a townread on him.

@GC: Nah man
Aneninen's softclaim is 100% likely to come from town.
He's TOWNTOWNTOWNTOWNTOWNTOWNTOWN

[Mathdino]

let me rephrase crayons
would you be willing to lynch either?

dino, why is lurking a policy lynch?

I'm not into lynching all lurkers. I have a wide definition of policy lynching:

Lurking
Active lurking
Spamposting
Trolliness
Asshattery
Overaggressiveness
Tunneling
Anything that's playstyle indicative and not alignment indicative
etc etc

That's not to say I wouldn't support a policy lynch of a lurker if given the choice between that and NL, but I prefer to call it what it is.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Ankamius
wooooot

[Mathdino]

If wgeurts votes Ank we have L-3.

farside

, forgive me if this is due to never actually reading your ISO, but what caused the flip-flop on Ankamius between today and yesterday?

[Mathdino]

On Victor:
His predecessor's posts really do hit a lot of alarms for me. Other than Amy though, what do you make of Victor's questioning style and his clear attempts to ask questions to generate suspicion? Or do you think it's just confbias?

Do you think wgeurts is bussing Ankamius?

[Mathdino]

ollie the fact that your predecessor claimed my role
and i'm not a VT
pretty much seals the deal

i'm guessing you're switching from that tracker claim, lol

[Mathdino]

just gonna guess that he has no defence against me lol

[Mathdino]

Right, clear patch of space, let's see if I can boss the rest of this thread before lunch.

413 - Venrob - I hate the random excuse. I can't believe that facing two players you need to flip to decide to vote.

414 - Farside - I've been liking Farside more and more and this is the question that I would be asking at this point.

416 - Wguerts - How are you getting town from that?

440 - Wguerts - Unless I'm reading the post times wrong the conversation was rolling. So why post this?

Why are you asking these questions that you answer literally the post afterward?

441 - Wguerts - Oh, so you can tell everyone your scumreading three lurkers. Meh.

Oh, so you can mudsling people and cast half-assed suspicion.

445 - Wguerts - The first post, where he calls to meta Anen looks like an awkward defence, although Wguerts seems to be a meta high here so who knows.

455 - Wguerts - When I saw the spoilers, I kinda expected a big post. So he doesn't think Flubber is scum but he is still down for a policy lynch, cause try to lynch scum Day 1? The Siv read was obviously wrong (did it really come across that Siv was uninvested and lurky on Day 1?).

457 - AdrienC - Seems like an easy vote to throw down based on the last few pages.

466 - AdrienC - And I kinda read this as "Is it safe to hop on the Siv wagon?"

Uh, no. Just no.

482 - Alchemist - Both scumreads here are the two flipped players. I don't think scum draws that much suspicion but I'll see if anything changes before the Day ends.

I both think this is a null thing in context and don't understand what you're even trying to say in the 2nd sentence.

488 - Ankamimus - Says read my ISO for his Siv read, and then there's barely anything in his ISO. Second read is lurker.

Wguerts - I'll take back some of my earlier comments, your persistance on the three reads might actually have yielded something.

529 - Anen - I find it townie that he went the whole hog for a full t/s list and the reads are reasonable.

537 - MathDino - That Romi scumread kinda came out of nowhere. The worst time to scumread for lurking is after a role is replaced for inactivity.

PoE due to me townreading players I shouldn't have been townreading.

549 - Droog - I hope this was meant to be a joke. That said I'm struggling to note anything useful you've done for ages.

Then you're not reading the thread or you have a serious playstyle issue, because droog has very much been contributing.

550 - MathDino - And the laughs continue?

These 2 posts were jokes. A grand total of 2 posts. And you're setting us BOTH to ignore as a result?!

551 - Droog - Oh, he is seriously doing this. Sigh.

552 - MathDino - ffs.

Actually I can't tell whether this is serious content, or some joke I don't get. Setting Droog and Math to ignore. Droog looks kinda worse cause he seems to intentionally trying to look busy.

608 - Droog - That was awfully sensitive of you.

No... no it wasn't... that's completely indicative of playstyle.

OK so it was squeaky bum time with a lynch. 1.18 had two wagons at five, and the Siv lynch saved Alchemist so that's notable if Alchemist ever flips scum. After Siv choose Anen over Alc, Anen put down the decisive vote.

Remind me why any of this matters if Alchemist flips scum?

You should probably not spoiler things you want people to read.

Responses in blue.

Overall response: Jesus I hate like almost every single element of these posts. I'm getting the impression you're scumreading OVER HALF THE GAME. Let's see:
You've scumread pretty much everything I said to the point of IGNORING ME FOR 2 FLUFFPOSTS when this fluff is absolutely MINIMAL compared to everything else I've done.
You appear to be under the delusion that droog hasn't been contributing and giving him the same treatment.
You're pointing out contradictions for Ankamius.
You're all but calling Adrien opportunistic scum.
Every comment about Venrob paints him as opportunistic.
It looks as if you're soft scumreading Alchemist.
You have 3 comments on why Aneninen is fishy and one on why he's town (after my ranting about him being town, naturally).
And you've been scumreading everything wgeurts sa... oh wait never mind, he's somehow TOWN at the end of the day due to being onto something and agreeing with your reads. Which totally isn't true of like half the above players.

Legitimately the only player I'm seeing a townread on is farside, and you buddied basically every post she made.

Is no one else seeing this? It's like Victor is creating evidence to fit his reads; he either agrees and likes

every post someone's made

(farside) or bashes

every single post someone makes

. He's done this for {Mathdinio, droog, Ankamius's slot, Adrien, Venrob's slot, Alchemist, Aneninen, wgeurts}, and even if you discount the last two because they somehow end up being townreads

that's a grand total of six (6) scummy people.

Jesus Christ jogging on a swimming pool.

Fuck the Ankamius wagon.

VOTE: Victor
At the VERY LEAST YOU CAN POSSIBLY PAINT THIS it's anti-town to be setting the 2 most active players on ignore. At the most?
Well, it's scum, obviously.

[Mathdino]

See, I'd ask if this guy has any townreads, but he obviously does in farside.

So he's making the choice to bash the posts of 8 different players while making it completely unclear his priority.

He could easily jump on any wagon right now excepting a farside wagon and it'd be internally consistent.

Not letting him do that.

[Mathdino]

Jesus, Math you make a guy sorry he replaced into a game with you. It seems your just looking to go after me whatever I write. I'll probably respond to you later.

@Mod

- Can you change the spoiler in 1135 to the other sort, cheers.

Considering you're doing the exact same thing with 8 players, yeah, I have a problem.

Amy was townier than you.