Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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opie, what does your "clean slate" approach to Adel involve?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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You are always scum in games I'm in.
You are in this game.
I am in this game.
You are scum.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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unvote, vote:opie
obvscum trying to hard to be seen scumhunting.
This vote is good through to his lynch, which should take about six pages.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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it is lynch-worthy, not just vote worthy.
Also, there is nothing wrong with random bandwagons, as they are especially useful for identifying players who are trying to lynch off of weak evidence. Just look at opie, who will be today's lynch.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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don't knock my mini-normal algorithm -- it is pretty good.opie wrote:Is this based on another algorithm?
And, you're wrong again.
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Votecount #5
Oman - 2 (Erg0, Jitsu)
pickemgenius - 2 (TrustGossip, Incognito)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Matt_S)
Erg0 - 2 (Guardian, Oman)
opie - 2 (Adel, Xylthixlm)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (ChaosOmega)
Not voting - 0 (nobody)
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Of games I've replaced into, my model has identified correctly 3 out of 7 scum, with four townies incorrectly identified as scum. I feel like I've adopted my playstyle in a way that allowes me to begin in a game without destroying the accuracy of my model.Jitsu wrote: @Adel: Do you really feel that you have enough information so far on this game for your models to give an accurate answer right now? What kind of percentages are your models giving you?
There is not enough information yet for me to try my model, but with opie so obviously scum I don't need to. I'll do it tomorrow, after today's accurate lynch of opie.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Guardian: no post #'s, but I copied the entire posts:
communicates to his scum buddies that he is apt to chase the later votes on any wagonopie wrote:vote: pickmegenius
Why? because I said so!
And. Because Adel has too many votes already...
a wagon that is "random bordering on suspicious" is enough reason for a vote?opie wrote:Unvote: pickemgenius
Post 64 made me laugh after reading dictionary definitions. Ugh. But to throw in my two cents, when I read your post Xylthixlm I read it with arbitrary meaning 3b. Why? Because when I use that word, that how I most often use it. Enter "define:arbitrary" into google and the majority of the results are similar.
Guardian driving Ergo's wagon makes me uneasy. You demand everyone give there thoughts on Erg0 and explain why they don't think he is worthy of a vote? I'm not voting for him because I haven't heard a case made against him. He threatened us with a day vig? Really? Right now to me this wagon is random bordering on suspicious.
Vote: Guardian
FOS: Oman and Adel
Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon. You got very happy at having the opportunity to "prove" your pro-town credentials, and then you overreached with this post. If you were better at playing scum you would've waited a while longer before attacking the wagon for being baseless, instead to tried to create an early impression in other players that if Erg0 isn't scum, than Guardian or Oman or maybe even I must be.opie wrote:First, I do appreciate the fact that you are trying to get some serious discussion. I felt like "arbitrary" was starting to distract the town.
I said that you were driving Erg0's wagon because you are voting for and then asked everyone for their thoughts. To me it had an air of: "Those of you not voting for Erg0, explain yourself" which just doesn't sit right with me. Especially when I don't think Erg0 has done anything to deserve an serious wagon. If its not a serious wagon then its a random wagon, and I don't think its necessary for me to explain why I'm not on a random wagon. I think it's incumbent upon those on a random bandwagon to explain why they are not the other way around. Thus, my vote for you.
Additionally you swithed you vote to Erg0 without any explanation. At first I thought it was random, but I'm starting to get the sense that it wasn't. And lastly, in Post 43, you questioned Erg0's threats of DayVig. The statements you are using to implicate Erg0 are to me statement made tongue in cheek. I didn't give the much credit. It makes me wonder why you do, and why you said nothing of Adel or Oman's Day Vigs.
I guess I just don't understand why Erg0 is being targetted here, which makes me suspicious of those voting for him. I will say that looking back Adel's vote for him has was her first only vote thus far, so perhaps I was a bit hasty with my FOS at her, but something about this just doesn't sit right.
This is the post that really nailed it for me. He is justopie wrote:
Actually, those are none of the reason that I voted for you. Seriously.[i]In Post 83[/i] Guardian wrote:To clarify, I have accrued two votes and one fos for:
Taking this game seriously
Taking comments in this game seriously
Wanting others to take this game seriously
Asking others to play this game
Is this a significant mis-categorization? Is there something I've missed?
So a significant mis-categorization? Yes.
Here is why I'm voting for you:
First: (a) you swithched you for to Erg0 without explanation [Post 24]; then, (b) when asked to explain, you reply that it's because of Erg0's "hang" comments, also because he's a "secret Aussie" Post 27; and, (c) you wonder why Erg0 is threatening with day vigs, then comment that he is the best place for votes (Post 43). My initial thoughts were just random stage chatter.
But then, you ask everyone to comment on Erg0's wagon [Post 65]. Which suggested to me that the above comments were serious. I didn't feel (and still don't) that what Erg0 did was worthy of a serious vote. And if they aren't all that serious, then I don't think I should have to explain why I am not on a random wagon.
As I said above [Post 75], I can't figure out why you were/are targetting Erg0 in such a way. It seems suspicious to me.
And now as Jitsu pointed out, it seems odd to demand that everyone explain their stance on Erg0[Post 65], when only a few posts later[Post 74, you don't feel he is most deserving of a vote.tryingtoo hard to make something out of what he knows is just "random stage chatter". That Guardian made an active post drawing out reactions from other players on the topic of the Erg0 wagon is a pro-town move, and I don't believe that opie was not only unable to recognize that but he also based his vote on Guardian upon it. Bullshit. His vote on guardian was based upon Guardian being a convenient target whose posts opie felt like he could manipulate into being the grounds of a strong wagon, probably hoping for a forced claim.
I don't need to. You are going to get voted to -1 to lynch, and then you are going to claim vanilla townie, and then someone is going to hammer you, and we'll continue on to day 2 and a pretty probable victory thanks to your errors as scum.opie wrote:Adel will you consider no other candidates for a lynch today?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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1. I'd expect Oman to behave otherwise if he were scum.Jitsu wrote:
@Adel: I will consider your case on Opie, now that you've actually presented one. Some questions:Adel wrote:Opie: I'll tell you what was wrong with that picture: three townies were on a wagon of another townie without you or any of your scumbuddies being on the same wagon.
I can follow your logic and see why you think Guardian is pro-town. Obviously you will assert that you are pro-town. So why do you think Oman is pro-town?
What is your estimation of the chance that Opie is scum?
Also, have you ever pretented to use your models when playing as scum to get a town player mislynched? If that scenario hasn't happened yet, would you do so in the future?
2. better than 50%
3. No. I haven't been scum in a long time.
4. Yes I might, once my models have a reputation for being accurate. I mostly plan on using them to inform me even if I don't share the results with the town. In Illustrated mafia I used my model, and didn't tell anyone. When I use them in this game, I don't know if I'll tell anyone. It is starting to seem like the best way to use the algorithm is to do it in secret, and then look for more traditional evidence that would support the case.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I guess my reason are more intuitive than anything, but Oman's posts so far just make sense to me. If you are town and you are trying to get things going, that is one way to play that I find perfectly acceptable.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I'm not using any non-standard tools at this point in the game.
What is unconventional about Oman's play? It seems pretty standard to me.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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And what would you base you preferred nice & logical arguments on in an absence of any behavior to analyze?Matt_S wrote:
Random votes that don't bring a person close to being lynched. In my eyes the bandwagoners get more negative attention than the person being bandwagoned. Or nice, logical arguments against someone. Bandwagoning is sometimes good, and random voting is alright, but I dislike a combination of the two.Jitsu wrote:@Matt: If you don't support random bandwagons to promote discussion, what do you prefer instead?
Why do you think getting negative attention is a bad thing for a player to do, even if more substancial attention is the result?
Is random bandwagoning really scummy enough to be worth a vote?
Who is more likely to randomly bandwagon a player, tow or scum?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Let me guess, in the game you modded he was a vanilla townie?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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This is my 2122th game post. As Team Leader or Assistant Team Leader
I would support systemically interrogating each doctor individually abut their posts during day 1.
All other Doctors would barrage him with questions and refuse to budge until all questions were answered. I would support Trust Gossip or Shaft.ed as the first target of such an interrogation.
I am qualified for either of these positions because I like to torture people and I have successfully lynched scum in this game. By actively seeking such a position I draw attention to myself and make myself an obvious target for attack. I am not trying to blend in or keep a low profile. If elected I would produce results: lynched scum.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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damn, wrong tab, wrong game. sorry, please ignore my last two posts.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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it is a psychological scumtell I believe in. Scum, trying to be town,projectshis actions more than normally. This isn't necessarily expressed by more frequent posting than is typical for the player. The scum player is more likely to state his policies prior to an action than is he is as townie. Consistency in thought and deed is much more likely to be emphasized. Playing the part of the "enforcer" for herd behavior often makes up a good portion of the player's posts.
rhetorical bullshit. I was having fun. It had about as much bias as an "God-Denying Evolution in your Schools" article inChristian Livingunder the "Threats to your Family" section.
I apologize for that.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I didn't even remember his first post, but when I saw it his post history when I was collecting those quotes for you I figured I could fit it in pretty nicely. A good way to start or maybe not?
What I was writing was true, but it didn't really answer your question. I spent some time writing it so I didn't want to just throw it away when I examined why I was dodging the question. I don't think he was trying to "communicate" anything with his first post. My bad.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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The output is a % chance of a player being scum. In a normal mini guessing if there is 3 scum or 4 is like a 70 - 30 split.Xylthixlm wrote:Adel: Neutral; seems to be agitating things without a lot of logic. Talk of an algorithm is amusing. I'd love to know how many townies it has correctly identified, so I can compute error rates.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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game 1: 2 scum identified, 1 townie identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myselfXylthixlm wrote:Adel, that doesn't answer the question. You gave numbers for 'scum correctly identified', 'scum misidentified as town', and 'town misidentified as scum'. Those numbers are absolutely useless unless you also give the number for 'town correctly identified'.
game 2: 0 scum identified, 3 townies identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself
game 3: 1 scum identified, 0 townie identified as scum, 4 other players left other than myself-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Is your record better? 43% is a pretty good number for the first few days.Xylthixlm wrote:
Of players your algorithm identified as scum, 3/7 were scum, or 43%.Adel wrote:game 1: 2 scum identified, 1 townie identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself
game 2: 0 scum identified, 3 townies identified as scum, 8 other players left other than myself
game 3: 1 scum identified, 0 townie identified as scum, 4 other players left other than myself
Of players your algorithm identified as town, 4/13 were scum, or 31%.
I'm less than astonished.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled game of mafia.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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You fail. 43% isn't an accurate number, but I was willing to let it pass the first time. Now you are throwing out 35%, which is another inaccurate number. Either drop the subject or get schooled in a most embarrassing way. Before you go back and check your addition and division here is a hint: you are doing it wrong.Xylthixlm wrote:
Adel's algorithm got the scum right 43% of the time. If he had picked the scumMatt_S wrote:2. You're arguing against Adel's scum catching which look really impressive to me. Having about half of your suspects on day 1 being scum is good. And I should probably say that the criticism I'm talking about is against points that they haven't made.totally at randomhe would have been right 35% of the time. The difference between those two numbers is not enough to impress me with his awesomeness.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I like how Matt_S put a fos on his scumbuddy but still hasn't decided to buss him.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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He will make for a great lynch tomorrow. opie dies in like three pages.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Incognito: if I understand correctly, the question you are really asking is "why opie but not Jitsu?"
Jitsu seems far less scummy to me.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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At this point can anyone see Mat_S being scum independant of opie?
hmmm....-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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and Incognito is trying to help Matt_S and opie invent some drama between them to help their distancing.... fantastic. I think this is going to be a very short game.pickemgenius wrote:So now opie and Matt_S are trying to get Guardian lynched.... fantastic.-
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there is nothing clumsy about noticing the obvious. try again.opie wrote:I am a little troubled that Guardian has ignored my questions in Post 228 and his unwillingness to respond to Incognito's argument other than what he's shown in Post 225. And in that post, I'm not sure what he is getting at.
pickemgenius, it just seems to me that you were trying to clumsily build a connection between Matt_S and I. I'm just saying.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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huge scumtell. 100% bullshit is more like it.Incognito wrote:I am now 100% certain
This is the sloppiest scum team I'veeverseen.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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which is one of the reasons I invited peg to join this game with me. We are familiar with each other's style from the games we've been in together.Xylthixlm wrote:I have this weird feeling that Adel and pickemgenius are in some sort of mind-meld.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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1. I am confident that he is scum. Mat_S would be too easy to lynch and there is a possibility of him being a VI. Also, I have trouble seeing him as scum independant of opie. Incognito doesn't really seem that scummy to me, sometimes I get a little carried away with myself.Xylthixlm wrote:Adel, of your three suspects, why do you want to lynch opie today?
2. I predicted opie's lynch pages and pages ago, and I like being right.
3. I want to draw the NK (suck that scum, ha ha!)-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I'd advise against being intentionally insulting if you want to make friends or influence people in the future.Incognito wrote:Stop being so ignorant and thick-headed.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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WOULD YOU MIND LINKING TO ALL THREE SO WE DON'T HAVE TO TAKE YOU AT YOUR WORD?Guardian wrote:
I've seen a scum say this like 3 times and never a townie.Incognito wrote:Adel wrote:
I'd advise against being intentionally insulting if you want to make friends or influence people in the future.Incognito wrote:Stop being so ignorant and thick-headed.
Oh. I guess you're not the insulting type.Adel wrote:100% bullshit is more like it.
P.S. I'm not here to be your "friend". I'm here to play Mafia.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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sometimes i type while I do something else, and then I hit submit without looking at the screen.... it hasn't been a problem before because everyone seems cool with typos, and I've never left my CapsLock on before.
sorry about that.-
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I think he is right and that we should all support himGuardian wrote:
I thought no one would ever ask.opie wrote:Guardian, why are you not motivated to respond to Incognito?
I'm busy, and many of his points are correct. I've followed Adel a lot. I ask many questions. I disagree that those things are indicative of my being scum, but I can't refute the facts. Also, while I don't find his case convincing, I think it would take quite a bit of time to respond to in sufficient depth to come anywhere near refuting.
Defenses are overrated anyway. Especially since not many are convinced by Incognito, and he is "100% sure" I am scum, I don't see how it would be a valuable expenditure of my time and effort to make arguments that aren't going to change many people's minds about anything. About 3 people have an inclination I'm scum right now, and I don't think responding to Incognito's case would do much, possibly reducing the number suspicious of me to 2 people from 3.
My time is much more valuably spent trying to find scum right now.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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more like two fingers are better than one because two fingers can cross and that makes a bigErg0 wrote:No more mind meld?XandXis sXe is like peg, right?-
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yes. I am all about keeping the signal to noise ratio down. If I didn't know that you were town I would probably take a different stance.Guardian wrote:Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?-
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1. I forget, but I know.Jitsu wrote: @Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum? Also, how do you know that Guardian is town (post 321)?
2. I forget, but I know.-
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er, distancing is where two scumbuddies call each other scummy so that when one is discovered to be scum the other looks more townie. It is similar to bussing, just without the lynch.Xylthixlm wrote:
It has something to do with "distancing", which if I understand correctly is a mechanism where scum leave deliberate breadcrumbs about who their scumbuddies are. I don't understand why scum on this site are so kind, but I'll take any gifts they want to give usJitsu wrote:@Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum?-
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and that is because the current meta is all over identifying distancing. In fact, it is only when newer players like Matt_S do it that alarms bells really ring for me.-
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Patrick: what did I do wrong? Why haven't I been able to get opie lynched yet?-
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I never said that you sucked. Are you saying that you are clever enough tonotdistance yourself from your partner?-
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I'm shocked.Incognito wrote:I, too, would support a Jitsu lynch as opposed to a Matt_S lynch.-
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A word of advice for those preparing metas on other players, comparing day 1 bahavior to behavior on later days is a clear apples to oranges comparison.-
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@oman do you still feel that Jitsu is pro-town? He was so good as town in our last game together, and I buy him as town so far in this game, that I want to defend him. Care to join me?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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A couple of questions--Patrick wrote: One of the few players here that I have any meta on, and that is that she always looks like scum to me. .
did you hear that ryan just got banned recently for posting a role PM in a game? ABR got me lynched day 1 or day 2 in my next four games after that, he was town aligned in all four and I was only scum in the last one. I was the doctor two of those times. He just posted in MD that he is only going to mod for now on. What was notable about my play in Friends and Enemies?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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He may be scum.Patrick wrote:
You called Opie's early case on Guardian bullshit, and voted him for it. When opie made the case, Jitsu expressed agreement with it, and threw a FoS on Guardian, whilst voting someone who you apparently believe is protown. I tend to think going along with a bad case is worse if anything than putting it forward to start with, so I don't see why you aren't also at least a bit suspicious of Jitsu for supporting a case that you think is crap. Please explain what is so great about Jitsu in this game that makes you think he's town.Adel wrote:@oman do you still feel that Jitsu is pro-town? He was so good as town in our last game together, and I buy him as town so far in this game, that I want to defend him. Care to join me?
opieisscum.
I prefer to pick the low-hanging fruit.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I don't want the town to lynch him. He reacted how I would expect him to if he were town again, as opposed to opie who didn't. Their interaction is what really sold me on opie. Can we lynch him now, please?-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I'm starting to think that the Jitsu is the scum-backed alternative to their buddy getting the axe. I am not happy about it. Oman and I are drinking the same Kool-Aid on this one.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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I think it is unsubstantial.
read [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6530]Underground Mafia[/quote] which is his only other game. He is such a clear asset to the town that remarkably slim evidence against him does nothing to convince me that risking his life is a chance worth taking.
opie, on the other hand, would make for good plant food. Let us let him push up daisies for the rest of the game.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Matt_S seems awefully likely.Jitsu wrote: Adel, can you say who you think Opie's partners are?
@Guardiuan: I'll go through all of it later, but I think Jitsu should be an investigation target and not a lynch.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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call it a pre-emptive OMGUS vote. You should've supported the opie wagon, now I'm going to get you.-
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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because I know the motive behind mine. I'm willing to do slightly scummy things to get a reaction or an absence of a reaction out of people. My post in response to Incognito was slightly based on truth and slightly built to troll a reaction out of him. Based upon his reaction to my post I am not pretty comfortable with the idea that he stands an above average chance of being scum. The biggest difference between my post and Incognito's is that mine got a pretty good reaction out of Guardian. I think that is notable. Among other things, it establishes a greater likelihood that Incognito is scum if Guardian is.
Right now I have to competing theories for who is scum:
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Adel Crystalline Logick
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no reaction followed by over-reaction once someone else brout it up.Guardian wrote:Adel, what's my notable reaction?-
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