Large Normal 212: Korts' Geriatrics - Game Over @1831

[MagnaofIllusion]

/confirm

[MagnaofIllusion]

So should we just lynch between Eddie and Pine who didn’t post in thread but confirmed?

I like Pine so ...

VOTE: Eddie

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Old Man

Look at that avatar and try to tell me it's not scum.

If anything he is scum for trying to sneak into a Geriatric game as a hidden alt.

[MagnaofIllusion]

claim: town pgo

Forgot to ask this ...

You are ok with being lynched the day before expected LYLO and thus will be busting tail to lynch scum right Cool? I can’t see you not being with this claim but want crystal clarity from you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why did/do you assume he was being serious?

Why shouldn’t I have? That’s a very heavy duty and consequential claim. Engaging him as I did had three possible outcomes.

1. He goes “Hehehe, JK” and I treat him just like every other player in the game.
2. He confirms his claim and understands why he has a timer on his lifeline. I let him have the lesser of my time in the game or at the most conservative 2 day / night cycles to do his thing unhindered to see what sort of outcomes he produces in scum-hunting before deciding if he needs pressed.
3. He confirms the claim but reacts negatively to the concept of a timer. In that case there is digging to be done.

In any case I thought it best to have his intent confirmed as early as possible. Do you think that’s a poor choice of actions?

I read MoI as half joking.

You read correctly. I’ve mostly made peace with people’s need to hid behind alts for whatever reasons (none of which I get) and that jerks I try to avoid in games will use alts to circumvent that.

--

Hey all, I confirmed by PM because I had a ruleset question.

You don’t say. Anyway what do you think of Eddie’s entrance?

Also, I meant 'lynch' MoI. Stupid autocorrect.

...lunch, MoI?

Sure. Up for a gooey delicious pizza or a Mexican smorgasboard? I’ll even treat since you have the bunch of new expenses coming with Pinecone’s impending arrival.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This? Pretty unremarkable.

So nothing oddball at all to you of him confirming in thread after Korts had said all confirms are in (signifying he had not read that post) but then said his vote on KMD was not RVS (signifying that he had read KMD's posts to make a "serious" vote)?

Yeah maybe he's joking and all about it not being RVS ... still doesn't explain why he confirmed in thread. Given you confirmed via PM I'd have thought that would have resonated with you as strange since you didn't confirm after Day 1 started.

Also sammies are great as long as they are hot. No junk cold subs for this guy. What are your thoughts on chicken wings?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Chamber

– just ignore Fire’s threat as it is completely empty. There is no way he can sustain wall-style posting for any length of time. And if he starts empty spamming I’m sure Korts will take care as necessary.

--

Lots of stuff. I'm waiting for a bit to see what some people do. If I haven't done stuff by like page 10 get back to me.

So at the rate the game is progressing you want to take 4 to 5 days off without providing content?

Hell no.

Hopefully since you aren’t feeling the need to share your insights at L-2 someone else plops a vote on you to encourage you.

--

Honestly, I always confirm by PM. Most games require it, and I didn't think twice about just replying to my role PM and confirming that way. Korts didn't tell me "Hey I asked you to confirm in-thread," so I imagine he wouldn't have said so to Eddie.

For this to be a thing, there would have to be something nefarious about confirming by PM instead of the less-common (though requested) method. Sure, maybe he was active in the scum PT or something, but I wasn't and didn't get wrist-slapped for it. So it's NAI.

You didn’t specify on the very salient point that Eddie’s confirmation in thread rings false. Do you think that was also a joke because it looked nothing like one to me. Maybe Eddie is some sort of jokester … I don’t really know him from Adam.

And frankly, as that's your second bullshit push on someone in as many pages,

Dislike this since you were trying to frame Chamber expressing his reasonable (FMPOV) dislike of hidden alts as a “bullshit push”.

Also regarding 71 – can you link me to some other Town games where you give strong Town reads very early for what I would say is a NAI posting? Because there is nothing in that post that can’t be faked easily as scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eddie

– I’ve done the math already chief. Maybe check yours. We’ll be a full two days in and at most have maybe 3.5 pages of content at that point. That takes us to page 4 to 4.5. Remember - most of page 1 is confirms that don’t count as actual content. So expectations at this point are to get to page 10 will be 6 more pages thus around 4 days. And with the weekend upcoming who knows if post rate declines or not. Glad you have time to pop in and empty post.

--

Why don't you like Insanity? If I was going to make a "way too early to make these kind of conclusions" list, he'd be one of my top for Town.

Um, whut?



--

@MoI do you think Pine makes those kinds of statements as scum without believing them as town? Personally I agree with you, if anything talking theory like that (best way to claim pgo) is a scum tell, you can talk about it truthfully independent of your alignment and telling the truth is great as scum. But, I don't see why scum Pine says that if Town pine doesn't believe it. Perhaps the degree of certainty is overblown (but until is follow up here and even after it I'm not actually sure how certain he is being). Is that your main issue?

Yeah the issue I have is the definitive “That’s Town” tone to that post. I don’t recall Pine ever being that definitive on what I think is really … a friendly opening post. Which is why I asked. It has been awhile since we’ve started a game together (my second hiatus) and wanted to see maybe if he had developed that tendency as a player. And full disclosure I’m not a huge Townhunter myself, especially this early, so that may be coloring my perception.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Phone posting this morning. I have some things specifically to say about OldMan but I want a computer to do that justice.

So should we just lynch between Eddie and Pine who didn’t post in thread but confirmed?

I like Pine so ...

VOTE: Eddie

Actually, Magma, how did you find this? Why did you even look for it? Do you have some past experience where not confirming in-thread meant scum? This looked like it was entirely just random RVS reasoning, but when half the game went with it seriously, you did too. Was it meant to be serious from the start?

Part of me wants to respond with a spicy gif since you butchered my name but alas phone posting prevents that.

Why didn’t you notice the lack of their confirms yourself? Since Korts specifically asked for in thread confirmation I was following along since I was eager for the game to start. When we got above 10 confirms I went to look at the player list to see what knuckleheads were being slugs in being slow. So I had an ideas who was not in thread confirmed. So when Korts opened things up without Pine or Eddie’s posting I knew where to go with my RVS vote.

Do I think it is a scum tell for them to have not thread confirmed? Of course not. But Eddies entrance was awkward and deserved scrutiny. He’s waved off that he is getting pressure for a joke. Were both his posts jokes? Who knows. And his “Stupid old guy I play how I like” stance frankly is 100% of the reason I’m keeping my vote there. He said he already had lots to say about what had happened. So why not actually say it instead of saying “I’ll provide contents later when I feel like it”? Axel has already stated what I feel on that issues - it is at best bad antiTown behavior and feels scummy.

Do you disagree?

Why do you seem to suggest my stance on Eddie is “He’s scum who confirmed in his QT” when I think I’ve been pretty clear on why I actually am still voting him. Can you point me to posts that suggest that to you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey Axel while you seem to be around can you walk me through your thought process in going from 31 to 67? Thanks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok now that I have some time … my thoughts on OldMan.

94 – My suspicion of him doesn’t even need more than this post to generate.

Let’s start with the Kison read – that’s ridiculous reasoning. RVS is all about stupid reasons to vote someone and I disagree wholeheartedly that it is a Town tell to call someone scum for having an ugly avatar.

Next let’s talk about the two comments of mine he went out of his way to comment on – 25 and 47. The response to 25 is a rambling over-explained couple of paragrapshs that didn’t need to be posted at all. I was clearly joking since he’d have had to sign up as an Alt before the game even started so it clearly isn’t a scum tactic. Yet we get two paragraphs of blah blah forgot password blah blah emails of years past … blah blah respect my privacy. Not a single bit of game relevant discussion to be had on a topic that had already gotten too much play with Pine and Chamber’s back and forth.

47 doesn’t need any comment as it is my opinion that Alts are lame. He even agrees with Chamber’s analysis but somehow uses that as a springboard to scum-read Chamber which doesn’t make any sense to me.

OldMan

– Specifically which posts by 47 are you Town reading me for my “respectable analysis”? I absolutely specifics and reasons why you saw reasonable analysis in those posts.

Next the following –

The speed of which this wagon is constructed is rather concerning. How is it nothing more than a thinly veiled policy lynch? By my count, five out of eight votes needed to lynch appeared on a newbie player within a lightning-short span of time. I do not support this, and, in fact believe that such a rapid-forming wagon must be scum-driven, especially and most certainly if Eddie Cane's alignment is revealed to be town at some point in the future.

This is scummy. Firstly we see him using trying to sell Eddie as a “newbie” who is the target of a “thinly veiled policy lynch”. It is ludicrous to assert that a random RVS wagon (which is a very common occurance on MS) is in any way a policy lynch. The only player I see on the playerlist that might have warranted a policy lynch is Firebringer and this being a Geriatric game blunts most of the reasons for that. It is also a stretch of epic proportions to equate Eddie with a Newbie. As has been previously pointed out Eddie has well over 6400 posts on MS. If Eddie does turn out to be Town this is stage-setting by OldMan IMO.

Lastly we get the following -

I don't find anything unusual about not confirming in-thread. It's generally much more convenient and faster to confirm through PM, by clicking the reply button and getting on with life. Furthermore, I am pretty sure Eddie Cane was being spiteful about the fact that multiple votes quickly formed on him for the trivial matter of not following the instructions in the PM and failing to confirm in-thread. I don't find the vote on KMD particularly interesting, KMD being the fourth bandwagon vote and his position on the wagon seems rather suspect to me as well. If Eddie Cane and KMD have some history with each other, it would form sufficient basis for an early vote.

Question 1

– if it is much more convenient and faster to confirm through PM why didn’t you do so OldMan?

If Eddie Can is the newbie you’ve tried to sell him as why are you giving him a pass for following the more standard site norms of PM confiming? I’d think someone who you truly believed to be a Newbie would be more in-tune with the mod’s actual request to confirm in thread. Thus I see a disconnect between the logic here and your “policy lynch on a Newb” from the same post.

Question 2

– Why did you not ask Eddie what his reasoning is given you postulate there may be history between them that would make his “serious” vote valid?

All the above is simply from 94. But my dislike doesn’t end there.

From 96 I find his fence-sitting on Pine to be meaningful. He’s already given Kison a ridiculous Town read for terrible reasons and I’m still waiting on his response about his Town read on me to judge that fully. But this is the second time he’s said effectively “Pine keeps making good points and his defense of me is good but I can’t find solid things to actually call him Town he could be scum”. This flies in the face of ease of which he called Kison (and perhaps myself) Town earlier.

I also dislike the tacked on ding against Chamber about being an “elitist” regarding join dates. Eddie was the one who opened that door with his childish response to me. Chamber’s comments were 100% driven by Eddie’s comment. Looks very much to me like OldMan is not actually scum-hunting but looking for things to peddle as scummy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

On to other topics …

Pine

– Are you scum reading me? A simple yes or no is fine if that’s all you want to give.

Hito

– What does Insanity’s lack of Axel vote say to you about her alignment?

Kison

– Why not comment at all about OldMan’s clearing of you as Town for a RVS joke vote?

--

I will not be voting for Axel today. He’s given me enough in his posts that I can see a reasonable Town thought process that I’m not supporting his lynch. Especially with players like OldMan around.

Hito also gets a Town read, if a soft one, for 124.

Eddie’s 128 does nothing to make me want to move my vote. Look he’s given content now we can get off his back because we need him to save the Town! Except the one bit of content he actually needed to elaborate on was why KMD was a serious vote and look … that didn’t happen. I don’t really care much either way who he wants to call Town with the exception of OldMan who I don’t think looks Town at all.

--

MoI: Why do you think I would not be able to keep up my posting style and what do you think of my scumread on you?

I have never seen any evidence you have the will-power to actually follow through for with this sort of posting for any length of time. Heck I don’t expect it to make it past Day 1. I fully expect you to basically end up lurking and need to be Vigged / policy lynched in a couple of days regardless of your alignment. Maybe I’m wrong. Time will tell.

What do I think about your scumread on me? I don’t. It’s basically empty fluffing and of no concern for me. I could have been cheeky and said something like that pretty much should confirm me as Town since you’ve never had any ability to read me at all but that would be predicated on you being Town and I don’t have any evidence of that so far.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI - No? You're fantastic when scum, so I don't thoroughly trust my TR of you. Take that as the compliment it is intended.

Because I think you really should be if you are Town. Especially if you respect my scum-game as much as you are indicating here.

I asked you for self-meta before Chamber asked Eddie for his. You reaction to that was pretty markedly different. And I've been perhaps the biggest reason there is still an Eddie wagon extant. Which is a wagon you think is on Town. I'm not sure why you don't think me not moving my vote from him isn't scum taking advantage of a stubborn Town which is how you are portraying Eddie.

In summary - you not scum reading me feels off.

What do you think Fire is scum? This I'm curious about.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh I get it ... Eddie is just like Mathdino and RC. Well now at least I can calibrate my analysis of his posts through that particular filter. More later ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was set to respond at length to Old Man but then three things happened.

1. Kison gave me an answer as what he thought about Old Man’s clear of him.
2. Eddie posted his content and specifically what he was talking about with KMD.
3. I saw the following …

And? Do we have a word-limit in this game, or are you perhaps a draconian English teacher who is here to supervise the content of my posting? I comment on what I want to comment on. Who are you to tell me what is needed and what is not needed to be posted?

So needless hyporbole and grandstanding. Tells me all I need to know about the amount of response I feel is necessary. Kison has already shown agreement that your “Kison is Town” is suspect. And now that Eddie has given his thoughts on KMD your “lol 4th on the wagon is scum” is shown to be the very shallow excuse for reasoning like most of the rest of your points there. But I do want to address this …

I've explained why I decided to use the choice of the word "newbie" to describe Eddie Cane. I'm not sure if you have simply failed to read my explanation of that point, or if you are actually cherry-picking extremely trivial points to enhance your argument against me, which, if is the case, I'd point the finger at you for being scummy.

The conclusion that I am "stage-setting", bluntly put, you are accusing me of regardless if Eddie "turns out to be Town" or scum, is not a good look for you as well.

Bold emphasis added – this is absolutely vital. My point on the issue of you stage setting was pretty clear I think – you’ve been white knighting Eddie since your arrival and I think you were setting the stage to attack pretty much everyone on the wagon upon his flip because you, as scum, know he isn’t your partner. But here you attempting to spin it as staging an attack regardless of alignment? Scummy

With more information from Eddie that seems reasonable (barring input from KMD) I think I’m ready to move my vote –

VOTE: OldMan

Again, I may be wrong, especially considering you apparently are holding a Don Corleone Scummie, though, I may have heard that Scummies these days are distributed rather generously.

The butthurt is real.

[MagnaofIllusion]

*shrug* Misreading me is your prerogative.

Fire read is gut approaching soulread. We usually dance around TRing and sheeping each other, but the blatancy of it here feels off to me. The "Let's be Masons" comment especially felt like a prelude to pocketing.

It also deserves to be said that I *want* you to be Town. We universally work well together when we're on the same side. But let me back-up and say that my TR on you is derived from our convergent logic thus far.

On Firebringer – thanks … if you are indeed Town and are better equipped to read him that would be an asset because generally I want to hang him pretty much every game.

And I agree that I think we are well equipped to Townblock together if we both come to solid Town reads on each other. Which is why I’m questioning you so much. With Eddie’s information drop the biggest stumbling block I had early (what looked like soft defending of him) is for the moment removed so I’m working to move you out of my Null reads if possible.

--

@KMD

– Very interested to hear your response to Eddie’s reasoning on why he thinks you are scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Be less smug and condescending. If you're so out of touch you don't have any idea who Magna is, you definitely need to fuck off of your high horse.

Pine I respect you want to make things less toxic but don’t feel the need if it is on my behalf. I think OldMan is specifically being insulting as a tactic. He’s clearly an alt and I get the feeling he thinks by being insulting he can “put me on tilt” as the poker term goes. It doesn’t bother me as I recognize it for what it is.

--

And? What's scummy about "hyperbole and grandstanding"? Please explain.

It means that your reliance on talking down to those who disagree with you and thus I don’t really feel the need to engage with you to any large degree. This isn’t debate class where I feel the need to post many, many wall responses to your long posts to “win points”. I’m scum reading you and have explained my position to you. I’m not going to convince you that you are scum. I’m posting to explain to others why you are scum. They are the target market for my posts not you.

Yes, I believe I have been making it clear that you are spinning me as staging an attack regardless of alignment. What if Eddie Cane flips scum?

Eddie flipping scum would oblivate my feeling that you were stage-setting for his flip since that would make no sense for a partner to do when he knew Eddie would never flip Town. It would certainly trigger a full re-evaluation of my read. For someone who just chastised me for “putting words in Kison’s mouth” you seem very comfortable making assumptions as to what I would say or do.

[MagnaofIllusion]

While I'm friendsish with 1 of them, that's insulting as heck I showed you being the dick first and this is what you came back with? I've thick skin, but I would've liked an apology or acknowledgment or something. This is OOG mostly so don't waste a post replying to it tack it on to your next one.

Sorry if you are insulted … but I can’t help that. You may not like the comparison (Math also dislikes it) but the three of you share a psychological profile keyed to certain common elements. Case in point – later in this same post you equate someone voting your strongest Townread as a slap in the face. That’s pretty telling to me and aligns very much with the mindset (not specific playstyle … you all have your own individual) I see with Math and used to see with RC before I made a specific goal to avoid playing with him.

On the issue of “me being a dick first” and wanting an apology – you jumped to a conclusion. My RVS post isn’t meant to say I dislike you. I don’t know you at all. I neither like or dislike you in general since you don’t have a common game history with me. Pine I do know and I do like. So if you feel that my post was a personal insult that’s a incorrect conclusion. However it is where I twigged to your psychological makeup. Take this for what you will. I certainly didn’t intend to insult you and feel saddened you took it as such.

--

Old Man voters, any reply to this? Unvoting me (MoI) or tring me (Rofl) and voting my strong TR is a bit of a slap in the face.

Well I’ll reply below but given our relative lack of common history I don’t know why you would expect me to sublimate my own thoughts to yours.

OldMan was one of the last additions that occurred when Ecto and Shea chose not to confirm. So he had over 48 hours to get the alt up and running and thus I don’t necessarily think he was specifically invited. As to the “angleshooting” (which for the record I don’t follow what I assume was a MafiaUniverse generated term so take that for what it is worth) – he chose the avatar before he had his role PM. I saw it in the signup thread. So choosing that avatar isn’t a Town tell to me as he can certainly could have pulled a scum PM. And given who I think his main might be it certainly isn’t out of that players range to try to sell it as such when they are scum.

Given I think his play is suspect I don’t put much stock in his pushes aligning with Town play but understand why you would. Let me ask though – do you find scum playing to pocket you as Town when under attack? Something I think you should mull over.

Also – do your really given Fire making those two posts as his only content constitutes game engagement?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My intent was to determine your competency level as scum. Pine has helpfully offered his self-meta and opinion of his competencies as the two main alignments. I've yet to diagnose yours.

Perhaps you should take up those Marketing classes after all because this is a terrible, terrible sales job.

I'd love for others to weigh in if they think you honestly were trying to get me to disclose some sort of self-assessment as scum as opposed to a specific attempt to insult and undermine.

Anyone not OldMan - please weigh in on this issue.

[MagnaofIllusion]

See, if you perceive that OM is trying to put you on tilt in order to get scum!MoI to be reckless and make a revelatory mistake, that should obviate your scumread on him. But...it isn't.

Now I *do* suspect you, for this cogdis.

Um ... I think it is ScumOM trying to take TownMoI's focus away from finding scum besides himself and instead get into a wall battle that most likely serves to turn off most players. Where do you get the conclusion that I think it is a Town OM tactic and that it lessens my scumread on him?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also for everyone on the fence about OldMan being a good vote …

Let’s examine his latest vote for Tywin from 178 and follow it backwards.

His reasoning for suspecting Tywin – found at 147 where he compliments Hito on his case regarding Tywin scum at 124

I’ll summarize – hito finds Tywin’s posting regarding at 99 feels like a workshopped defense of both Eddie and Pine in which Tywin doesn’t actually say that either Eddie or Pine are Town and that a Pine flip (and to a lesser degree Eddie) would implicate Tywin as a partner.

Ok … so OldMan finds this credible. And yet who is he voting? Twyin who is the relational scum

AFTER

a Pine (or Eddie) scum flip.

OldMan clearly has been defending Eddie as Town since OM’s first post. But his thoughts on Pine? Let’s look at this segment from his post to me from 177.

Pine, you mentioned that the difference between your town and scum offering of your self-meta, was that, as town you'd make the previous post, while as scum you'd let others do the work and testify on your behalf instead. What do you make of Magna's lack of initiative in providing his own self-meta? Of note is that this would be identical as the action as you would have done yourself as scum. And what do you make by interpreting, deliberately or otherwise, my hints for the aforementioned as a personal attack, thereby devolving an otherwise civil argument into one laced with ad hominem?

Is that how Town talks to a scum suspect? Nope. He’s hard charging to get Pine to scum read me and reaching out to Pine.

So the conclusion – OldMan would have you believe he’s Town who is voting Twyin based soley on Hito's case when the entirety of the case Hito laid out is predicted on one or both of Pine / Eddie to be scum. And OldMan clearly doesn’t think either one is scum.

Aka OldMan wants to lynch a relational tell when he doesn’t believe the relations that tell is based on. Aka scum fabricating beliefs instead of actually scumhunting. Or distancing from a partner.

Either way vote away!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Sidebar: has anybody actually given a read on Tywin aside from "probably scum if Pine or Eddie are scum"?

Don't think so. Mainly because he has so little content. I'm personally waiting on his feedback on the questions I answered and subsequent followup questions for him to answer.

[MagnaofIllusion]

How exactly has my posts not been engaged MoI?

Writing a bunch of words isn’t engagement. Telling everyone how you are going to play differently and not claim is not engagement. The only thing in those posts that was might be deemed actually looking to move forward was your wisp thin call of me as scum.

Untrue. Read you right in every game except The
I think you saying my read is pointless fluff is also again another discredit.

Um .. no. I don’t know why you straight out write things that are clearly easy to check and clearly aren’t true and don’t expect me to point them out. I think I’ve got every game (unless you have some alts I’m not aware of but even then this evidence is enough to prove your “I always read MoI correctly” dead wrong) where you were Town and I was present.

BioChemistry – I’ll give you a correct read even though it was 95% Maria.

Mini 1882 The Fappening – You were Town and didn’t call me scum so correct.

The Thing Mafia – Dead wrong as you aluded to in the quote.

Steven Universe 2 – I’ll give you credit for being correct as I’m not reading through 4 pages of your ISO in that game.

Walking Dead Season 1 – Wrong since you were part of my mislynch when I drove 1 scum lynch and helped with two others.

Open 637 Fire and Ice – Another complete whiff as you helped scum mislynch me when I replaced in and nailed two of the three remaining scum.

Mini Normal 1800 – Wrong again as you the closest you came to suspecting me was when I voted to bus my partner Math.

Soccer Spirits – I’ll call this a draw since you were barely actually playing. I never got under enough fire for you to try to mislynch me but I was in your lynch pool.

So in the games I could find where you were not scum and we actually were in the game together you were 3 out of 7 (charitably as I was generous with Soccer Spirits). Hardly a winning ratio. Hell if you had always just read me as Town you would be 5 of 8.

So why fib about that Fire?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So my Town reads so far are in vaguely decreasing strength – Axel, Cooldog, Hito, Pine, Rofl, Chamber, Eddie and PJ. I’m a bit scared as this is more than I usually ever get this early. And I acknowledge I’m likely dead wrong on at least 1 but time will sort that.

Insanity is just on the Null side and I need more from Kison before making a call there. Firebringer will be a delegated read to Pine (also maybe Eddie since they seem familiar) as long as I still Town read him.

That leaves my pool of “Likely will lynch” with OldMan straight to the top, KMD and Twyin. I think I’ve made my thoughts on OM clear and KMD and Twyin have outstanding questions I want answered / need more content if they want out of the pool.

--

MoI, your 186 is silly because Old Man explicitly said he likes Tywin scum independently of Eddie/Pine, not associatively like I was reading it.

Well I disagree. Because removing the “suspecting Eddie / Pine as scum” element from it and I think Twyin’s post pretty much parallels OldMan’s – overwrought attacks on what was I think a pretty standard RVS wagon. So to my mind OldMan is pillorying Twyin for what he himself did in regards to Eddie’s wagon and calling it a disgusting disguised policy lynch. I don’t find that level of cogdis a Town tell myself. Do you feel I’m way off base?

Also real talk – copper223 is your alt? I did not know that. Learn something new every day.

[MagnaofIllusion]

moi forgive me if you've done this already but can you explain why axelrod is your strongest townread? i also wonder why kison is categorized as not yet readable while i'm in the town list, because i feel like he and i have posted about the same amount of content and our opinions are largely similar so far. you're not the only one with this weird dichotomy of townreading me and nullreading kison though as far as i can tell. there's some kind of groupthink going on with people townreading me, which is giving me the heebie jeebies for some reason.

He’s a Day 1 Townread for me based on how he answered my “how do you get Post X from Post Y”. I felt is was very reasonable and showed an actual thought process not some manufactured reasoning. There’s a touch of meta there too from Clash of Kings Mafia … his play so far has given me flashbacks to him as Town there. And to be transparent – my Town list is not “set in stone” even for today … it is WAY early and as more information comes in it is certainly going to shift. Frankly I don't usually get this many Town reads and I know something is going to give.

As to why I Town read you and not Kison … to some degree it is gut. Your reaction to OldMan’s baiting matches my thoughts and you were on him pretty early compared to most other players. Your wavelength on those issues matches mine and since I know I’m Town you get the early Town nod.

Kison on the other hand – I just feel his posting is “just there” for lack of a better phrase. Maybe he is indeed warming up. But everything he’s written certainly can come from either alignment easily I think. So I need more.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So, I don't find that very persuasive.

More persuasive to me is my own point (surprise!) about him kind of backing off his assertion that the initial wagon on Eddie was scum-driven.

As shocked as I am by this turn of events (ok not really)… did you even read my back and forth with Hito or just the case itself?

Also, @Magna I have another question for you. I think you have said that you think you know (or suspect) who Old Man "really" is? Yes? My question is - given the kind of exaggerated/artificial way that Old Man is posting - is this something that he always does/did? Seems like if you think you are recognizing this "style" then it must be, but if this is something he always does, it would be a null-tell.

I have my suspicions yes. Nothing concerete. But if I am right I would say their posting style is specifically an affectation to this game as far as the insulting / dismissive elements. And the player I am thinking of I know for certain approaches the game as scum by mixing up their game regularly so I could certainly see that as a specific choice.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First let me personally thank Eddie on informing me that Morality is one of Boon’s alts. I appreciate that information.

Obviously given the claim by OldMan (which I find shaky giving the timing and convenience) I’ll be moving my vote. Still think he’s a great scum candidate especially given the way he folded his affected style to conform to what several other players deemed acceptable play. Any attempt to take-back his claim or defer activating it Day 2 is effectively the equivalent of a Cop guilty IMO that should immediately be met with rope.

Still interested in hearing response from Twyin but probably not going to vote him today given OldMan’s interest in him as a scum suspect.

Actually was thinking about moving my vote to Fire since didn’t respond at all when I called him out on his direct lie. Also he had to be prodded which seems pretty low effort to me. Thoughts on that

Eddie

?

But KMD gets my vote for yet another post that avoids him directly addressing Eddie’s reasoning for voting him and whether it is valid or not and the side of for the “Dog Ate My Homework”.

VOTE: KMD

I have to say Cooldog’s Town read is rapidly deteriorating with his complete lack of any sort of thread presence.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Very happy with my vote. KMD’s latest post is basically a rehash of the beginning of his first catchup to some degree and he has no reason to be going that far back when lots of things have occurred since then. He continues to avoid the direct question of whether Eddie’s reason for voting him was valid or not.

Also move Morality to my “willing to lynch pile”. There is no excuse in a 12 page game to be lurking. It is not “that dense” to read IMO. While I had a soft Town read on Chamber I’m more than willing to consider that was a wrong read.

--

Magma: You said you asked me questions multiple times now, but I haven't seen any in the thread. You've mentioned these questions at least in 5 seperate posts, but I've never actually seen any questions. Repost them

Well more it was 1 item that I wanted you to address and I mentioned it multiple times because … well … you continued to be gone. Here’s what I wanted you to address. Some of it is well dated but I’d still like you to specifically respond.

Part of me wants to respond with a spicy gif since you butchered my name but alas phone posting prevents that.

Why didn’t you notice the lack of their confirms yourself? Since Korts specifically asked for in thread confirmation I was following along since I was eager for the game to start. When we got above 10 confirms I went to look at the player list to see what knuckleheads were being slugs in being slow. So I had an ideas who was not in thread confirmed. So when Korts opened things up without Pine or Eddie’s posting I knew where to go with my RVS vote.

Do I think it is a scum tell for them to have not thread confirmed? Of course not. But Eddies entrance was awkward and deserved scrutiny. He’s waved off that he is getting pressure for a joke. Were both his posts jokes? Who knows. And his “Stupid old guy I play how I like” stance frankly is 100% of the reason I’m keeping my vote there. He said he already had lots to say about what had happened. So why not actually say it instead of saying “I’ll provide contents later when I feel like it”? Axel has already stated what I feel on that issues - it is at best bad antiTown behavior and feels scummy.

Do you disagree?

Why do you seem to suggest my stance on Eddie is “He’s scum who confirmed in his QT” when I think I’ve been pretty clear on why I actually am still voting him. Can you point me to posts that suggest that to you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Questions to OldMan –

1. Why were the reactions to your claim “disappointing”, what does that say about the possible alignments of those invovled and why didn’t you address any of them other than mine directly? For someone who has been espousing that clarity is important you were very less than clear there.

2. Why do you continue to ask about “meta” for me? Because I will tell you directly I very much doubt you can make any sort of meta read on me that is meaningful. Both Pine and Axel (at least one of which you seem to think is Town) have both said at various points they thought I was possibly Town but are wary of my scum game. That should have been an indication that meta for me is probably pointless but you seem to act as if no-one has given you any information

--

Wait, what? Since you mentioned almost nothing about CoolDoG but had him high up on the town list, I assumed you did it on strength of claim like the rest of us. But this implies it was something behavioral and not the claim; so why did you have CoolDoG town in the first place?

to be fair, it is the second and this was well broadcasted

Thanks to both of you for trying to undermine my

very subtle

attempt to encourage Cooldog to post as much as possible Day 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

actually gonna bite back a bit hard on this, scum love the idea that a soft clear for non-behavioral reasons could be muddied up by playstyle, so even if cooldog was hyper lurking (and it looks like it was just the vla and he's fine now) I really don't want us opening that door. believe the claim or don't, but if you do then however he plays doesn't change his PM. townreads aren't cookies we give to the most useful players y'know?

And as respectively as possible - no. PGO isn't a "soft clear" role. His handling of the claim and acknowledgement to be wiling to be lynched before LYLO is Town play but he can NEVER be slotted as Town for his claim. I've stated I was going to give him 2 days to bust his butt assuring me he is Town with his play. So encouraging him to post is part of me wanting him shining as Town if he is Town ASAP. Frankly I really find the whole tone of this well off hito.

What is it that the kids do these days ....

::

Is that it?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Still happy with the placement of my vote.

Firebringer’s “MoI is the best lynch now because he would win in a LYLO situation” further makes me think he’s more likely scum. It’s an absurd argument and it feels like he is grasping at reasons to justify his read when questioned on it.

My response to OldMan’s discussion at 287 I will keep very concise.

1. There is as discontinuity in saying that people jumped from his wagon with “weak or no reasoning” and not drawing conclusions from it (they could be scum who don’t actually have reasons) or going after said players. He did neither and basically is pretending that’s unreadable behavior.

2. I also think the second part about “wanting meta from others” is scummy coming from someone who earlier stated that the burden of proof of meta is on the accuser in relation to others having requests. Why didn’t he read my most recent scum games and come to a conclusion himself? It’s not hard to look at my threads, get a summary of my alignment in those games and do some research on how I performed.

Obviously not voting there today but not letting what I see as suspect play not be pointed out in case his claim dissipates tomorrow.

--

Kmd's "catchup" 270 feels like just stalling.

Then vote him and get some momentum to that wagon. Your Rofl suspicions are noted but that wagon isn’t going anywhere IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh God. It's only been 2 pages, but every post is a novel. We need some player-led standards set here. Can't expect Kort to do it all. Catching up though, so prodge

Reading is not a hardship. Perhaps the only post on this page that MIGHT be considered tough is Cooldog's and frankly I think that is even a stretch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Prod acknowledged ... this last weekend has been a long and emotionally painful one so I haven't really had time to do much more than occasionally phone scan.

I might be able to put together a post of some size tonight depending and know I have some responses for OldMan, PJ and someone else escaping my brain ATM.

So, so glad Tammy replaced into that slot. I had Chamber as Town but Boon tried to kill that read. Just my scanning of Tammy's entrance gives me a solid feeling she's Town and I'm very happy to have a sounding board.

Tammy

- thank you thank you for joining and for seeing what I'm seeing so far with some of your last post's reads (Axel is of particular comfort as there has been a bunch of shade going his way I couldn't grok). As you work your way through if you have reads you feel very divergent on from mine please let's confab on them. Also - how good are you at reading Fire?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So first thing I want to catch up on is direct questions / back and forths that were open.

1. The problem is that I cannot read such behavior when I believe that the evidence obtained is not indicative of alignment. Can you? If so, I challenge you: Tell me what you think of the reactions of the people who jumped on my wagon, and their alignments. If you're town here, we'll review these predictions postgame. I'll tip my hat off to you if your reads deserve merit.

Given my read on you is still scum who made a fake-claim I hardly think you would expect any answer other than “Town” for those people seeing you as scum too since your wagon never grew to enough significance that I would expect bussing. But I don’t have your perspective of your role PM which is part and parcel of you judging the quality of the votes on you, do I?

Ironic that you can’t judge anyone who jumped on your wagon as Town or scum but seemed deadly certain the Eddie wagon was scum driven. Who were those scum again?

2. I am attempting to profile you. chamber was accusing Eddie of being scummy, then asking Eddie to prove himself innocent with meta evidence that he performs the same behavior as town... guilty until proven innocent? Here is the difference: chamber is accusing Eddie of being scum, without proof. However, I am not accusing you of anything! How are the two relevant?

Actually you were, in an indirect manner. Your “meta” read of me (which was a joke BTW since basically went to the latest 2 games of mine of either alignment when I have literally dozens of games of both alignments on site) was in my mind set up to establish a no-win scenario for me. Either

1. I’m competent scum and thus you can keep the door open to not really read me but say “Looks Town, but good so can’t Townread there” (which BTW Hito is also doing in his very insubstantial read on me), or

2. Establish I’m Town because my scum game sucks and thus I can safely be ignored as a Town idiot.

Low and behold what did your “meta” dive come up with? This exact combination competent scum but terrible Town. Very convenient for you, isn’t it. Glad your claim will resolve tomorrow.

--

Huh? Stubbornness like that usually comes from town. Why wouldn't scum-Eddie just do what everyone is asking to get people off his back?

No. Well at least no in the sense you are pedaling here. Stubbornness is a personal trait not an alignment trait. I’d wager people would find me stubborn regardless of my alignment. I’m pretty sure Eddie falls into the same category.

Um...no? Those are three very different players.

In some respects sure but their psych profiles all share a certain set of values. Do you think this is indicative of scum behavior KMD? I get the sense you are more looking to pick at points as opposed to look for scum.

--

5.) MagnaofIllusion, how often to you “delegate” your reads to other players (specifically, delegating your Firebringer read to Pine)? Would you agree with the characterization that this was partially a move so that you did not have to continue a back-and-forth with Firebringer?

Rarely. Generally it requires me to have solid respect for another player’s ability to read someone over my own and a Town read on them. I respect Pine enough that as long as I have a Town read on his slot I'll certainly listen to his guidance. Not going to let it 100% dictate my read. And I will definitely give Tammy's read serious consideration as well under the same provisos.

And that characterization is frankly bull. I’ve put pointed questions to Fire that he basically refuses to answer (for example, his direct lie about his ability to read me). If anyone is abdicating a discussion between the two of us it his him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eddie

– Can you link me to the post or posts in general from Team Mafia you were referring to with KMD? Because his explanation really seems like a sidestep and I want see it firsthand at this juncture.

Also can you give me a current read on Fire given he’s absolutely not engaged in the game at all? Thanks.

sn't Tammy supposed to be the old people version of Creature? God at town, shit at scum? If true this replacement is probably best case because we either get an amazing player or we get a free scum lynch.

No. Tammy is so much better a player than Creature this is rather insulting to Tammy I think.

--

chamber was one of your top 3 scumreads in 99. Morality replaced chamber. What is your read of that slot now?

Twyin seemed pretty tempered in his scum read of Chamber in 99. This comes across as suggestion that Chamber was a strong scum candidate (on what, page 4) that he just forgot. Is that the point you are going for here?

--

i really still want to lynch axel seriously is no one else seeing this?

I absolutely don’t get it. And while I don’t want you to wall I’d love if you’d give me the short sell on why you feel so strongly on Axel.

--

Wow.

Not for me?
Here I thought we were friends.

I see how it is.

Exhibit Z on why Fire’s claimed scum read on me is fabricated. No “Tammy why do you want to play with that mean scummy McSCummerson when I’m adorbs Town” or anything of the like. He’s just limply saying “Magna is scum” in an Appeal to Repitition without bother to actually try to get any sort of pressure on me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hi. Not going to write an extended reply countering your arguments point by point, given the fact that I believe your stubbornness currently points towards you being town.*

It seems that you feel that the conclusions that I have obtained from my metadive on you are inaccurate? Please correct me then. Since I have already shown sufficient proof to back up my conclusions, this time the burden of proof shifts back to you to show me why my assessment is wrong.

Also, it is strange that you would be unsatisfied with the evidence I have provided, which is your two most recent games of both alignments. Are you saying that these most recent games are not representative of your current play, despite being the most recent (one game dates back to 2016)? Shouldn't your most recent games reflect all your improvements from your older games that are years older, and not the other way round?

I'll keep this to the point - again this isnt't debate class. Don't expect me to spend time defending my Town game (which I am more than adequately equipped to do ... Tammy at the minimum can absolutely vouch for this) to you because it is of no purpose. I don't particularly care what you think of my Town game. I do care to point out that your "meta dive" (again, 2 games is like the poster child for small sample size) doesn't look like an actual effort to determine how I play as both alignments but very much like you cherry picked games to support a position that I can safely be ignored regardless of my alignment (Scumgod who can never be trusted or Village Idiot who should be dismissed) which fits a scum agenda much more easily than a Town one. Again this is simply evidence I don't want swept under the rug as people basically ignore you due to your claim. I want as much evidence as possible in the case that you aren't revealed Town pretty much at the start of Day 2. And heck if you are actually an Innocent Child it gives me an insight into your ability as Town. Which I can't meta since conveniently you are a hidden alt. Which is another reason I find your obsession with meta off.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Axel - I see your questions. Ran out of time this morning before work to address so you'll have to wait for tonight (probably, life is still chaotic).

[MagnaofIllusion]

Quick phone post -

VOTE: Firebringer

He isn’t willing to vote any of his “suspects” and keeps his vote on Tammy who is near the top of his Town reads.

Insert meme “you can’t get called as scum for pushing mislynches if you never vote your mislynch targets” here ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

And what you are saying here seems to be something completely different. You seem to be changing your previous argument and saying (in effect) "well, even if it wasn't a relational tell, I still suspect Old Man because he is being hypocritcal and attacking Tywin for doing the same thing that he himself did."

Which looks just a bit hand-wavey of the fact that your original point seemed completely off base. Am I missing something here?

Well I don’t know why you aren’t following it but let me lay out the logic.

1. OldMan said he agreed with Hito’s relational case and then went on to say that even beyond the relational case he thought Tywin was scum independent.
2. I pointed out that he couldn’t like the relational case at all since he didn’t believe any of the reads (that one of Eddie / Pine had to be scum that Twyin was soft defending) and thus his like of that post made no sense.
3. Hito and you (I think, I don’t remember the second poster) said “That’s silly he said it was scummy even without the relational tells.”
4. I responded to show why that also made no sense from a Town perspective.

I stand by the fact that him gushing so much praise on Hito’s original post made no sense given his perspective. If you want to classify my clarifying why it does make sense otherwise is “hand-waving away the original point” that’s your choice.

I'm interested here in the read on Pine, as up to that point, at least, I didn't see where you had anything positive to say about him, and rather seemed to have been questioning him in a number of posts.

You probably would not find me saying “positive” things about most players who I had on that Town list. My questioning him was part of my early attempts to sort him. Do you think that’s unreasonable?

You haven't commented about Pine much at all recently, so, what's your current read on him?

Realistically there hasn’t been that much from Pine recently to comment on read / alignment wise. He’s been a little busy with Pinecone.

He’s still in my Town reads. I like several things he’s twigged to (his Firebringer read first comes to mind OTTOMH).

I probably need to revisit that list again. Hopefully tonight before bed.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey Eddie ... want to build a wagon on Firebringer with me? I'll be fun and productive ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome

Lycan

. Curious why you chose to replace into this game given your obvious disdain for the Geriatric player pool from the Geriatric discussion thread and looking forward to seeing your contributions given you are the leading wagon. Also need to check back on Sypro Mafia I think.

Pine

– How’s that Fire reread coming?

Tammy pretty much has solidified my Town read on the slot with this recent batch of posting. She hit three specific points in her re-reads that were basically pulled from my skull at the time she is referring to.

Eddie

– Friendly suggestion to find a better place for your vote. Tammy isn’t scum.

--

(There is a game that RC linked in site chat a couple weeks ago where he thought that Magna did really well as scum that I've been meaning to read to make sure, so this is here mostly as a reminder for myself to look for it again to orient myself and make sure what I'm looking for hasn't made its way into his scum game.)

Tammy can you give me some context here? I don’t EVER go in chat so I’m a bit surprised I would even be brought up there and I kind of refuse to believe that RC would be posting about me in any sort of complimentary way. Thanks!

--

I'm still very happy with my Tywin vote. Him flaking out makes me feel even better about it. I see Firebringer has some votes on him now. I'd consider switching back but I'm happier where I am for the time being. None of the other wagons particularly interest me right now.

I think I’m his solo vote right now re Fire FYI.

Why do you think Twyin flaking is aligment indicative?

--

Stubbornness, generally, sure. But when it comes to something like "I'm not explaining X until Y happens" even under the threat of a wagon, that's town stubbornness. The reason for that is you know it's not helping things as far as peoples' reads on you, but it may help you with your own reads. As scum, only one of those two things matters.

Um no but I think we are at loggerheads on this and further discussion will basically be that double Spiderman meme with each of us saying “No, you are wrong” even if you happen to be Town.

If you are town, I want you to be using logic that will get accurate results. If your basis for anything regarding Eddie is "he's like Mathdino" or "he's like radiantcowbells", you're probably going to be wrong. So yeah I wanted to correct that. But no, I don't at all think that makes you scum.

And responses like this are why I still scum read you KMD. You are going out of your way to portray my thought process in a way that shows either you don’t understand it or are being willfully ignorant on the subject. It feels scummy since I have clearly stated that the similarities are on specific psychological elements and not on playstyle.

Which of the things I listed do you not find credible?

The whole thing was completely over-explained. Here’s that post again for those following along at home – 318. You spent way too much time explaining in detail about how the games are different when the last line –

I didn't see it as wagoning a newbie because I don't see you as a newbie.

should have been all you needed to say on the issue. Of course the games are different.

Additionally I’m having a hard time with your read on Eddie. Ever single thing he does is a Town tell for you. And when to my mind if you were Town and he laid out a scum-read (even early on) towards you based on that logic that you spent so much time explaining wasn’t valid I would not expect you to think “Town”. It feels contrived to me and almost appeasement of him since you returned.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It is? Well great psychic preemptive move then.

In my defense the last vote-count had you voting Tammy.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Tammy

– Thanks for the insight. Please let me know what game was being referenced because I can’t think of any scum games of recent vintage where I replaced in. In fact my really only recent scum game (last 6 months) was Miss List 2 but I didn’t replace in. I may have follow-up questions based on what game it was.

f this is part of the basis for the fire scum read, it's probably thin.

Its part of it. The main chunks are his disconnection with the game (IMO) and the fact that he refused to actually vote his own scum-reads as opposed to sheeping someone. His last large post in fact feels like he’s just buddying up to a number of players for “defense” of himself as opposed to actually trying to find scum. Finally his scum read of me is manufactured as crap. Maybe its his ego and not liking to play with me but there is not a single point he’s made that is even close to alignment indicative and he feels like he’s trying to buzzword BBQ (OMGUS, “fake Town reads”) his way out of questions about his case.

--

When have I spoken poorly about Geriatrics?

Here is what I am referring to

geriatrics should get a cop head start to better align them with more skilled mafia communities

I think his is pretty much the textbook definition of talking poorly about the Geriatric community.

What's with your fascination with Spyro Mafia? Did part of your ego die back in Mini Normal 1890?

I wouldn’t say it is a fascination as much as the most recent game we were both in and I don’t remember what alignment you were. So I wanted to refresh my memory of how you played and see if you were Town there or not. For example I will need to see if you were this over-reactive in that game.

As to your question to me – I’m going to defer til you actually catch up in the game because the direct question you asked was answered long ago.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Korts

- Can we get a Vote Count? Thanks.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also can everyone take in the majesty of the following claimed stances by Fire -

1. I'm scum for potentially delegating my read on a single player to Pine (and he keeps also forgetting I put Eddie and now Tammy in that pool as well).
2. He's happy to delegate his vote for today to another player (Eddie) even when that results in multiple cases of him voting claimed Townreads.

If you Town read that behavior then ... I mean ... WHUT?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So light of not a ton happening this last pages due to PJ and Eddie’s interactions I thought I should go back and reset my reads. Where I’m standing more or less now.

Town – Tammy, Cooldog, PJ’s slot, Pine, Rofl, Axel, Kison
Nullish – Eddie, Hito
Scum – OldMan, Firebringer, KMD, Insanity, Lycan

That too many Townreads problem I had earlier has self-rectified. Tammy has shot to the top of my Town reads with a bullet. Axel and Insanity have slid down in general for the exact same reason … which I’m waiting to see how others address. Kison got an upgrade for having reads I agree with and drawing conclusions I am as well. Eddie slid similarly for having stances I can’t reconcile currently and for that reaction to a case which I can’t connect with at all.

--

For what it's worth, I kind of see this too. The only thing is I feel like Magna is good enough to not need easy pushes. It seems like as scum he could go after whoever he wants and look town doing it.

Yeah, not buying this. But does make me believe they probably aren’t scum together. And not buying Fire believes it either for the record since in Thing Mafia I completely let Town Spiffeh push his lynch.

--

OldMan continues to be focused more on meta than scum-hunting. Again suspect for someone who “wanted privacy” to be free from meta themselves.

494’s attempt to form a PJ counterwagon and the makeup of that wagon have me happy with my PJ slot Town read.

--

to be fair, from your POV isn't that a good thing?

Um whut?

How is it beneficial at all FMPOV for Fire to be voting players I think are Town again? I mean other than making himself more obvious as scum anyway? I’d really like clarity on what the hell this is supposed to mean.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh it was a joke.

I can’t really muster the will to get to a computer to post an appropriate reaction pic. Oh well.

[MagnaofIllusion]

booooo don't ragequit either of you

i will focus on this game tomorrow morning

--

There have been a few times when I was about to call you out for attacking poor play over scummy play, but remembered that's pretty normal for you. You've done that with old man, myself, and firebringer. The other part of it is that as soon as you see something you think is scummy, you see the worst in everything they say after that point. So, like Hito, I do always seem to scum read you. Is there a reason you think I'm making that up?

As respectfully as can be said – Bullshit. This whole line of “MoI is pushing policy lynches” you are floating is a big steaming pile of crap. You are peddling my case on OldMan as policy lynch material when it is so far removed from that it isn’t funny. I’ve over and over stated why I see his (and yours and Firebringers) play as coming from a scum perspective. Case in point with this narrative you are selling. You admitted yourself in the very post I responded to that you don’t think MoI scum would need to push and policy lynch and you are dead correct. Firebringer knows this too as I alluded to with Thing Mafia … Scum MoI doesn’t have to push Town Firebringer at all. Especially Day 1. Town MoI, on the other hand sees behavior that he finds suspect from Fire and pushes on it no matter when or where. And yet I see you stroking Fire’s hair and saying “it’s ok slugger … I see where you are coming from” while simultaneously admitting it makes little sense. Which is why I don’t think you are partners. But Fire Town makes me think this is yet another example of you attempting to pocket players with Town reads that don’t make sense (Eddie was the other example). In fact in UCV’s Normal game that JUST ended I identified Implosion scum early Day 1 from his awkward and forced Town read on a Town player who was playing terribly.

Both you (trying to sell the narrative I’m not scum-hunting but policy / bad play hunting) and OldMan (I’m tunneling and terrible) are doing your damnedest to have Town pay little attention to my reads while staying far away from outright committing to scum reads on me. And I think that smells of scum who don’t want to poke the bear but want him muzzled. Hell if anything that’s a point for Firebringer to be Town … he’s willing to say I’m scum even if he can’t actually articulate any reasons for that push.

But … hey … explain to me the Town motivation for Fire to outright lie about his ability to read me. I’ll be waiting.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hell ... just typing that makes me think my vote might well be in the wrong place.

VOTE: KMD

[MagnaofIllusion]

Tammy

- when you finally get shaken loose from all this end of Semester stuff can I ask you to give me a dedicated Firebringer read when you are caught up. I've taken note of your comments along the way but need a sounding board from someone I can trust.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, I'm not saying you're pushing policy lynches. It's more that the things you tend to legitimately find scummy are things others would consider policy. You see poor play and think "that must be scum". Your example in that very post about firebringer is exactly what I'm talking about. Does it benefit him as town to lie about being able to read you accurately? No. Does it benefit him as scum to lie about something so easily provable that he's sure to get the reaction from you that he got? Of course not. What's more likely is that he thought he was better at reading you than he is and he was mistaken. Unfortunately that tells us nothing about firebringer's alignment. But you see that he told us something and you can prove it wrong so he must be lying and must be scum.

Well I asked you to see what your answer would be. And this response is very surface level and shows to me you are bending over backwards to find the most benign light possible. Firebringer made the sweeping statement as support for his "case" on me. I call him on it. His reaction? Nothing. He completely avoids addressing the topic AT ALL. Nary a single mention. Personally I didn't expect him to change his read on me for that. But a Town honestly trying to ascertain my alignment ... I would have expected something. Anything. Even a "Ok, my memory was bad ... but that doesn't make you Town". But nada.

You keep harping on bad play as if it is only something that comes from Town and that's just not true. Scum can and do play poorly as well.

In fact here's a link of Firebringer's ISO in Kids TV Mafia. He's scum and Day 2 he faked a cop guilty on Spiffeh. Eventually he walked it back but clearly as scum he's not unwilling to make "poor" plays against players he feels are stronger. Because he feels comfortable doing it. Now maybe here he is Town just trying to effect some sort of policy lynch because he feels I don't give him the proper respect. I grant it is possible. But it is also possible he's scum. And the fact you don't even consider it an option is suspect.

Lastly I've been holding onto the following link for a few days to see if you would acknowledge it and I want to share it with everyone.

Inspirational Mafia - a part of why I think KMD's stance here is coming from a scum perspective is this game. We were both Town. He observed me directly not attack SnarkySnowman (for whom poor play is basically the standard) on poor play and correctly read him there. In fact the last day we were both in the game together KMD was voting off scum on Snarky. So he very well knows that I am more than capable of recognizing Town poor play.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why are there so many votes on hitogoroshi? He is one of my strongest townreads.

So your reaction to a counter-wagon forming on your strongest Town read trying to compete with your scum read in Lycan is this fluff?

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI who should I be voting rn.

I'd say KMD but I want you to assess what I'm saying independent of just sheeping me please. It would be helpful.

Sorry the game is boring you. Did you ever get to re-reading Fire like I requested?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why are you asking other players to explain your reads for you?

I'm curious about why you are still trying to argue that OldMan is scum, even though he may possibly be confirmed town tomorrow. Do you believe that he should be lynched today?

Um, in the context you quoted I'm not. I'm holding the specific mention of what I found scummy about your and Axel's play to see who else comments on it or agrees with it. Hito's already weighed in and I think his read on the situation is Towny.

Why shouldn't I be pointing out what I find to be scum play in him? Yes, I know his claim is that he will be cleared tomorrow. Until that point I'm proceeding with calling him out for scummy play. I know he isn't going to be lynched today. But I want my opinion well documented for the point where tomorrow comes and the real possibility that he's fake-claiming scum. Do you think that's bad play or scummy?

What do you think about the fact that he claimed I'm basically only tunneling him when it is clear as glass that I've got my sensors out looking for scum in mulitple places?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Rofl I get you solidly scum read Axel and are giving real effort to move votes there. But I don't see that happening at this juncture.

So feel free to continue your push but anyone else you feel is worth a vote that you'd be willing to back as we get closer to deadline.

[MagnaofIllusion]

like can you imagine, you, me and hito all together on the axel wagon, it would be so great

How about this ... I'll do a complete reset on Axel in the next few days and reread him fresh and let you know if I agree by moving my vote if that is the case.

What do you think about KMD?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I know this. I have no intent to "virtual middle finger" anybody else in the game because ironically only a select minority suspects me.

Also I am getting bored because I want Tywin/Lycan to flip but certain players are either stalling the day to its maximum one-month deadline or are trying to form counterwagons, which I will proceed to prosecute tomorrow after Lycan's alignment is revealed.

Blah blah blah tunnelling ... here's two things from his above post that I absolutely don't want lost in the discussion.

1. If he was only suspected by a "select minority" as he claims why did he claim Innocent Child in the first place in the manner he did?
2. The second part of this is written from the standpoint of someone who absolutely thinks he'll be alive tomorrow. I have other thoughts about him pre-emptively talking about prosecuting those not voting Lycan when he as Town should not be 100% sure but the point I am making is the following - why does someone who claims to be so lightly suspected, who is pushing on what they claim is a scum lynch and have claimed the ability to absolutely Town confirm themselves expect to live til Day 2?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Pine

– Sorry to see you go but I understand with Pinecone and everything why you might not be able to be engaged.

Tammy

– Thanks for the feedback on Fire. My question is this – if you are caught up and think Lycan is scum why is your vote still on Eddie?

Still have to get to that Axel re-read I promised Rofl and will try to get that done while I have time after this response.

Also Rofl is still Town and 633 reaffirms that for me. And Eddie’s vote for him at 604 stinks.

--

hort version: I know its part of mafia, but I get a little stressed when I get pushed/cased and a lot more so when its in a game I think I could realistically be mislynched in.

I get more stressed when its not a good case. I get even more stressed when the case is personally insulting and rehashing things we've been through over and over.

He posted that right before work, and kind of ruined my shift because being in a shit mood and stressed while you're bartending is not a good place to be.

Nothing personal Eddie but I have a hard time believing this and at the same time buying in to your self-provided stance that you are one of the best players of your generation on site.

Also the bolded I can’t connect with at all as coming from Town. I relish having scum make garbage cases against me as Town as it makes my job that much easier in finding and hanging them. Not stressed. And the repetition should work on similar lines because Appeal to Repetition is a thing. And hell even if you think PJ’s slot is bad Town a garbage case isn’t going to move the meter without scum having to get their hands very dirty to push a mislynch behind it.

--

Okay after reading what I believe to be a really damn good point by roflcopter

(just read their latest post regarding axel's duality situation of pushing one thing but voting the other.

It just fits of pushing mislynches while not being on the wagon directly so you don't get blamed for it type of way.)

I really don't get why you'd say this as well?

There's like 12 days left of deadline?

You're trying to shoot down a wagon with a concern for time when there is no concern for time and I'm reading it as a defense of axel without actually defending him.

Are you actually caught up? Because either you have an absolute lack of grasp on the game-state if you are caught up or you actually need to read. Axel isn’t getting lynched without the equivalent of him claiming scum or a daycop claim. There isn’t any momentum there. 12 days at the pace of a Geriatric game is much shorter than you seem to be hinting here.

What was your point here? I’m scum defending my partner Axel? If so why isn’t your vote on one of us instead of OldMan? Because regardless of how little you believe his claim or think he’s scum there is 0% chance he’s lynched as that would be bad Town play either way.

Also Hito, word of advice that I've learned from Nacho.

If you don't know where to put your vote, put it on town.

Yeah Tammy already got to this (and if anyone knows Nacho it is her) but I very, very much doubt this is something Nacho taught you.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So with a completely fresh set of eyes I’m looking at Axel’s ISO –

His progression at the start of the game is pretty Null to me. I mean we’ve been over confirm-gate to death but I don’t necessarily see anything that pushes me either way about his posts around that. In fact his unwillingness to put Eddie at L-2 that early isn’t scummy at all. Worst that can be said is that the point he makes in 68 about not knowing how Eddie confirmed is questionable since it really was nothing other than RVS warlgebargle in the first place that he didn’t confirm in thread.

There is a bunch of stuff in 115 I agree with and can see from a Town perspective. And I still don’t see a reason to scum read 125.

And I agree with his thoughts at 202 re: OldMan backpedaling on the notion that Eddie was a scum-driven wagon.

Now 346 is the first post where I’m seeing something that smells of scum here and that is some Cogdis between the following …

He's not saying he had any actual suspicion of Eddie at all (unless he is saying that Magna's joke vote was an actual reason)

but he left his vote there until #192

(which was well after the wagon went away, and anything that he might have "gotten" from it was done.)

Bolded for emphasis – he’s dinging KMD for not moving his vote from RVS (in effect) fast enough when he’s just recently been defending his own “vote-parking” as not scummy and something that is, for lack of a better term, a “fake-news scumtell”.

Also not a fan of 399. I can see Town wanting to know why I have a Pine Town read when he’s apparently Axel’s top scum candidate but the point about me “not talking about Pine” feels a bit dirty when Axel himself has had little to nothing to say about Pine for some time either.

Finally two more general points – on ISO re-read I don’t have the same strength of feeling that this is Town scum-hunting. There seems to my eye to be a disproportionate amount of posts that are “defense of self / others (like Firebringer)” as opposed to pushing scum suspects. And I’ve seen multiple cases of Axel saying “I need to read said person” that have never materialized.

That combined with his calling Firebringer effectively “too scummy to be scum” and I don’t feel back giving Rofl my vote right now.

VOTE: Axel

Still feel KMD is scummy but getting no traction there.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, where should my vote be?

We need to be moving towards a lynch. I mean there is time but this isn't a spam-fest game where people put 10 pages on in 3 hours and move their votes every 3 posts.

Look at Lycan / Hito / Axel for me and move wherever you feel is most likely to hit scum. I mean I think Hito is a bad, bad lynch but I think he's actually the leading wagon right now and I think consolidation will tell us something whenever we know more about the alignments of those involved.

Also I really want you to look at KMD separately but I know I'm not getting that lynch today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Damn it Pine trees are supposed to be inanimate objects and not stealthy ninjas ....

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well time to dig back in. First I’m going to do some responses and then make a general “Thoughts on the game-state and my reads” post afterwards.

@Ginngie

– re 663 … if your intention is to ruin the work PJ did in getting a Town read for your slot please keep at it. Pro-Tip: Asking you questions isn’t a cardinal sin it is the crux of the game. And didn’t you just go off on OldMan for poking at you for changing a stance when you got more information? Yes, you did.. I also notice you dropped those supposedly important questions like a hot rock and never followed up when OldMan ignored them. Why is that?

--

I could see Hito scum. He's been tonally off.

Not that I’m a big believer in tone reading but can you go into how you think Hito’s tone is off?

--

I guess I would see it as scum if he thought in this player list playing up his emotions would get him town read, but I think he has to be aware it would be the opposite here so it's not a good scum strategy.

Here’s the thing – I do think it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for hypo-scum Eddie to look at the current playerlist and thinkg “AtE will net me Town reads”. Or at least draw more net Town reads than negative reactions. You are very in touch with emotional play and KMD has made it clear he gets that more than my more emotionally muted approach. And I think players like Fire, Lycan and Gin clearly might expect it from Eddie. So I’m not willing to not at least think about it.

(This is something that I want to look into Magna's games if I have the time and the inclination because I believe I have a memory of Magna working with people on reads, so if I am right I can put that point to rest.)

Ummm this is pretty awkward Tammy since Near Vanilla is a game and combined with Kids TV Characters Mafia why I feel pretty confident about being able to read your alignment.

--

That game was about two years ago so I don't remember much from it but I looked at your ISO and mine. Couldn't help but notice a couple of things. First, I didn't like your vote on Katsuki who was mislynched Day 1. Second, I had a weak town read on you Day 1 and even posted a reads list with you in about the same place I have you in this game. So the game you linked shows me reacting to you similarly to how I have here with the exception that we've interacted more this time around. And that difference is probably due to you scum reading me.

I also want to clarify because I think something is coming off wrong. I don't think you are "bad town". That's not at all what I've been saying even if Old Man sees some of what I see and comes to that conclusion. You just seem to believe in different tells than I do. Hitos post I think pinpointed that in a way that I haven't been able to verbalize myself even though I was kind of thinking along those lines already.

I don’t care that the game was “two years ago” … it was the last common game we have (I believe unless you have alts running around I am unaware of in which case BOOOOO … ). And while your response here is nice and dandy you are doing your best to backtrack or avoid the issue I have … that you’ve been peddling a narrative that I attack poor play not scum play. That’s crystal clear the stance you were running with ( I can quote the posts if necessary) and when I’ve called you on it I see things like the second paragraph. I’ll grant you its possible you are Town trying to back off statements that might not have been fully actualized or properly parsed by me. But I also can see the possibility of scum motivation I’ve already discussed to death.

I still don’t like your Town reads that I don’t think are warranted. Firebringer for example – I don’t think there is anything in his ISO that warrants Town reading that slot from a the perspective of an uninformed Town player. Yet you just confirmed you have a soft Town read on the slot. Why?

Also if the Lycan slot is Town I pretty much think 569 should not be overlooked.

--

That's the second time I've seen you make this type of post. The other was to me about rofl earlier 296. Ironically, Axelrod wagon has now grown and you are on it.

Seeing that there is plenty of time until deadline,

why does it bother you if people talk about scumreads that are not imminently likely to be lynched?

Hmmm. This is bad. Are you purposefully trying to state a position that I’m not taking with the bolded? Because that’s actually the opposite of my stance. In fact in the very quote you are using I specifically told ROFL “feel free to continue your push”. Asking him for other reads is not telling him not to push on Axel.

In fact you seem to be the one bothered by talking about scumreads not in immediate peril given you questioned why I’m pointing out scummy play from OldMan.



--

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah ... I'm tired so no more tonight. I do want to remind myself to get into Axel's response to my re-read. So self ... remember to do that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In the first, you ask me to stop pushing roflcoptor and vote KMD instead.

In the second, you impliedly want roflcoptor to talk about or

move to other reads

that may be backable to lynch closer to deadline.

This would suggest that you would rather people talk about or be on lynches that currently look more likely to happen.

You're annoyed that I may have misrepresented you, so why are you trying to misrepresent me? I've said that it's rather pointless to talk about why Old Man might be scum since his claim makes him possibly confirmable tomorrow. This is entirely separate to talking about scumreads that there is currently little appetite to lynch.

First let's talk about the bolded which is incorrect. I never in any way asked ROFL to stop pushing Axel. You are trying to slide that into my narrative when AGAIN I told him to keep pushing there if he wants but to talk about other suspicions given he was a sole vote on Axel at the time. In fact the only reason there is anyone else on Axel right now is that I did a re-read and feel good enough about my Town read on ROFL that I could move away from KMD (who was getting no traction) to consolidate on someone with ROFL. No reason at all not to get a Town read to talk about other scum reads even if they have a strong read they want to push.

I've been waiting for people to attack me on still pushing OldMan looking to see if I could get scum to try to portray that as scummy. And here you are.

As to telling you to stop pushing ROFL - he's a Town read. It doesn't make any sense for me not try to work to get a wagon on my Town reads especially if it means getting Null / Scum reads away from pushing Town reads. And that you are somehow softly trying to say that's scummy is in itself scummy.

Particularly I don't care what you think is pointless (especially since you are in my scum pool) regarding OldMan. I'm going to push my scum reads.

In fact I've been back-pocketing this but your reaction is pretty much what I expect from scum (and why ROFL is solid Town for me) - if OldMan is indeed an IC scum knows he's not scum and thus would be much more likely to take the stance of "Oh, he's going to confirm himself, best way to look Pro-Town is to avoid suspecting him". Town on the other hand who had previously suspect him have reason to doubt the claim ... its part of being uninformed Town who can't take a claim made under suspect circumstances at face value and thus keep pushing.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Phone post - I will be back to answer Kisons questions and make some points on Axel and Insanity tonight.

But this following bit needs pointed out immediately regarding Insanity. Look back at these last few posts where she suspects me and note the very important thing that is missing -

Insanity is voting Lycan and just put him in his most want to lynch list. So ostensibly he thinks Lycan is scum.

I’m voting Axel and my vote I think is the real reason that wagon got any momentum.

But is Insanity making the logical point that someone who sees a counter wagon forming to their scum read on someone they think is Town - that I could be scum pushing a counter to scum Lycan to save him?

Nope that reasonable Town perspective is nowhere to be seen. Instead there is a post slapped together attacking my review of Axels ISO.

Reeks of scum perspective and would happily lynch Insanity after these latest posts also.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eddie I already linked you to Kids Tv Mafia. Again phone posting but going to say I don’t buy for an instant his ISO here has a single bit of game solving. Fire is probably going to throw a fit in response to this but mindlessly sheeping a player onto Town reads isn’t gamesolving. Neither is a series of a few fluffy Town reads. And I still don’t see any scum hunting at all given FMPOV his only scum read in me can be boiled down to “I dislike MOI and he’s good at scum Policy him”.

I’m not the only person who thinks this. Hito is on the same wavelength and so are some others.

Since this is still phone posting I obvi didn’t dive deep into your links. Later tonight if you want me to post links in his ISO I will. Guessing you will not but we will see.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I looked over 695 for Axel’s response and to keep things tight here’s my commentary ..

There were way too many words explaining in detail the very important differences between an RVS vote and how it lingered too long (KMD’s damning vote on Eddie) versus how his vote is reasonable to have sat on a vanity wagon on Pine for pretty much all of today. I’ll note that Axel hasn’t done much at all to actually develop that wagon or push his read. He’s much more interested in defending himself. Thus why him pushing at me not discussing Pine I find suspect – why should I be talking more about a gut Townread than he is his supposed top scum suspect?

Also of note the little “Magna is pushing weak cases” line of attack is pretty scummy also given Axel has himself talked about how he doesn’t have strong reads himself. What level of “cases” should be expected in a game without a single flip? Whatever might be said about the relative strength of what I am presenting (on multiple suspects BTW) it is far and away stronger than anything Axel has said about all his scum suspects.

Frankly I think it is pretty transparent you can track Axel’s read as suspecting me as my suspicion of him increases.

Hey Axel – can you chart for me how your suspicion of OldMan (as you indicated in 212) morphed to suddenly him being a solid Town read in 723 when you don’t have a single interaction or comment about him making Town posts in-between?

--

As for forgetting about questions I asked, I think I can answer that one. It's because I forgot about those questions.

Am I allowed to forget things or what

Straight up answer … forgetting things that you presented as pertinent scum-hunting questions makes me less inclined to give your opinion much weight.

--

MoI: My main reluctance in switching is MoI going from "I will not vote Axel today" to doing just that. Magna, I don't get an overwhelming sense of confidence in you scum reading Axel in 638, but rather less confident in your town read from earlier in the game & semi reluctantly moving in order to consolidate votes. Would you say this is accurate? How would you line him up against Lycan/Tywin? Lastly, I see you played with Axel in Clash of Kings: would you say his scum hunting here differs from that game, where he was town?

So Kison I’m going to straight up ask you – are you actually reading my posts? Because Axel has been steadily sliding down my reads. Note 526 where it is clear Axel has dropped from my top Town read early to near the end of my Town group.

Am I super confident? It would be a straight up lie if I said I was. Probably my strongest scum reads are OldMan (who claimed IC under weak pressure and has been coasting out the day ever since) and KMD (who lots of people seem to suspect but all were unwilling to follow my lead and like OM has been playing amazing disappearing lad since I move my vote). I feel similarly on Axel and Insanity at this point. Frankly I wanted to move to a wagon that had some chance of pushing a scum suspect and ROFL at least offered me a second vote.

How do I stack up Lycan and Axel? I really don’t per-se. I’ve come to the conclusion I’m not likely to vote Lycan unless it is a last second deadline lynch and no other viable wagons exist. Why? Game-state.

The last time Tywin / Lycan wasn’t the lead wagon or tied for the lead was WAY back at 240. My gut feel is that the lackadaisical manner in which we’ve very slowly build up wagons and no strong movement is occurring means that scum is very comfortable with the game-state and doesn’t feel the need to push hard at all. It is the same feeling I had Day 1 in the Thaw. Town had a wagon sitting in the lead and there was no momentum anywhere. Scum were happy to let the impending end of day to the work for them and to let Town just mislynch Boon. I pointed this out and we eventually flash wagonned scum. Look at how stagnant the votes in this game have been. Maybe Lycan is scum but I have serious doubts given that it took this long to get any sort of wagon going to counter it.

As to Clash of Kings – Axel’s playstyle seems consistent. That’s why he got the initial gut Town read. But as been said over and over – playstyle doesn’t alignment make.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD

– an FYI starting late Saturday I will be VLA til the next Sunday as I’m going on an overseas vacation. I may have internet access and my phone but I will not be able to judge how useful that internet is until I get there.

I’d like everyone who thinks Axel is Town to look over his ISO. Look through it and ask yourself – when was the last time he seriously made any sort of attempt to get people to scum read Pine? He’s happy to just have his vote singleton parked all Day with no better place for it under the “Pine gets a pass due to Pinecone” stance. And my gut is that his unwillingness at this stage to jump on Lycan is because he knows that doing so makes him look scummily survivalistic AF with a Lycan Town flip.

@Hito

– I hear your thoughts re: game-state and you may well be correct. But that’s what my gut finally settled on right about the time I made my move to voting Axel and I’m trying to listen more to my gut.

--

Do you disagree that this is possible scum motivation?

I agree that is a motivation you could ascribe but I disagree that it is likely at all. I think from an outside perspective that odds of that scenario are very very remote. And the fact that you are clinging to a scenario that unlikely as opposed to the more likely “Town who right or wrong doesn’t believe his claim” is another reason I think you aren’t Town.

Or more precisely if OldMan is Town then odds you scum skyrocket in my book. Now if OldMan is scum as I have thought … probably not. Which why I’m not trying to move a wagon your way right now.

How is calling Firebringer "too scummy to be scum" a justification for scumreading him.

Pretty simple. I find looking for unreasonable Town reads / reasons to not scum read a player as a pretty great place to find scum. It’s exactly how I identified Implosion in the Thaw … he was bending over backwards to give someone a Town read in every scenario. In this case both you and Axel have both said “scum would never play like that”. That smells of scum wanting to capitalize on a “correct read” on Fire despite acknowledging his play is suspect. KMD is in the same category given his “Oh, I have a light gut Town read”. Eddie on the other hand has reasoning (even if I don’t particularly find it compelling) behind why he thinks Fire is Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I actually don't understand what you are getting at here.

Yes, I have suspected Tywin/Lycanfire for a long time.

As part of my re-read of Axel, I considered the various cases on Axel, including yours in 638. I found that I really disliked your case and entirely disagreed with the conclusions you made about those posts from Axel. That is what has lead to my present scumlean of you.

Of course you could be scum protecting Lycan-fire scum. But, why is it noteworthy that I don't see this possibility as most significant at this time?

And this exact reaction doesn't dissuade me from my scum read on you. You aren't showing any level of connection to scum-hunting in your reasoning. It is as if you are looking for scum tells independently and aren't doing any sort of overall viewing of the game-state. I looks very much like someone not looking for scum but looking for points they can sell as scummy.

And what you do buy into seems more based on your current argument than reasoned scum-hunting. For example - you were quick to go with the very remote possibility that I'm scum partners with OldMan and was bussing him with my continued pressure today but don't "see" at all why I find it suspicious that you aren't at all thinking about me as scum for fueling a counterwagon push to your scum suspect in Lycan as deadline nears.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Player pushes weak case. Suspicion on player increases. News at 11.

Scum player attempts a snarky comment and ignores the majority of a post in hopes that it dissuades people from realizing he doesn't have an actual response and needs to keep Appealing to Repetition with a buzzword ... News at 11.

Straight talk - your "case" on Pine is the textbook definition of weak (oh, he's playing differently than I am and I don't understand it in a nutshell) and is pretty unbelievable for someone with your level of experience.

But thanks for reminding me to look back at Clash of Kings and to see if Town you there was this myopic about alternate playstyles. I know there were some very doozies like CSL in that game and you not attacking on that angle will be confirmation that this isn't Town Axel. Hopefully I get a chance tomorrow before my V/LA.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So magna, are you not going to talk to me at all in this game?
Cause at one point you said you were directly trying to keep an open communication with me and I was avoiding that, but you haven't talked to me since then. You talk about me, but around me.

I said for you to not instigate a fight, are you doing this on purpose to avoid trying to fight? As in you want to avoid hostilities or are you doing so for other reasons?

I am really trying to understand here why the hell you say you are willing to talk to me, but then don't at all.

Well that's some passive aggressive bullshit. I find a hard time believing this isn't 100% posturing on your part.

Really - you made it clear early on when YOU just absolutely avoided responding to questions that you'd rather talk about me than with me. So, nah, I'm not really interested in being the one doing all the answering for you when you ignore what I directly say to you.

I mean there is enough "Hurr durr Firebringer is just too scummy to be scum" in the thread from people I find suspect that I've come around to this is just you with a personal beef playing his regular scummy Town game for the moment. Flips on KMD /Axel / Insanity will help develop that view.

And yeah - don't think you are scum-hunting at all.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Tammy

- Thanks for the vacation wishes. I hope to enjoy. Here's the thing - I greatly appreciate that you are giving me feedback but I've reached the point where I can't really go anywhere with it. You are basically giving me "I think they aren't scum" to all my suspects and the only person you seem close to pushing is Lycan which I've already said I think is a Town slot. And while you seem comfortable having an idle vote I don't. Sorry I can't be the anchor you need to get oriented this game apparently.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So I’m going to probably have my hands full doing stuff around the house most of the day so I want to get my “parting thoughts” that would not be phone-posting which by definition abbreviated.

Not Willing to Lynch Group

– hito, Rofl, Pine, Kison, Ginngie, Tammy, Cooldog.

Tammy and Hito are probably my strongest Town reads. Maybe Tammy has got over her innate dislike of playing scum and is able to post massive amounts … but I’m happy saying no for the moment. I like Rofl if only for where his heads is at. Cooldog’s claim means I’m not seriously evaluating until Day 3 if we are both still around and have flips to work with to see where his pushes have gone. I read PJ as Town and Ginngie hasn’t done enough to make me throw that read away yet.

Pine and Kison are gut mostly at this point but I don’t suspect them at the moment.

I'm sure that I've got scum hiding in this group somewhere but if I live long enough to bother having to re-evaluate that will happen.

Can’t Lynch Due to Claim that Resolves Tomorrow

– OldMan

If I don’t live to see Day 2 I want this front and center – any attempt by OldMan to say “Nah, I’ve played obv-Town and don’t need to pop my claim … blah blah blah” should be met with rope. There is no reason as Town after making that premature claim not put it to rest immediately Day 2. There are several strong ancillary reasons for this beyond just putting the issue to rest that can be discussed Day 2 as necessary.

Meh, Probably Only to Avoid a No-Lynch

– Eddie Cane, Firebringer

As of now Fire with my stronger scum reads on KMD, Insanity and Axel (all players with pretty empty “Fire is Town” or “Too Scummy to be Scum” stances) Fire stands a better chance of being Town with little desire to actually play in a manner to help Town.

Eddie – I can see things that could be Town and things I could see from scum. I’m doing my best to temper my dislike for his constant appeals to how other see him as a great player from filtering into my read. Show don’t tell.

Happy to Hang

– KMD, Axel, Insanity

I think I’ve been more clear than pretty much any other player about my suspicion of these players.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh and as the ommission of Lycan from 846 - since I'd just made a big post on why I don't think he is scum I didn't bother putting him with Eddie and Fire in the "Meh" category. Again from game-state I think he's more likely Town but I think his suspicions are waaaayyyy off-base and board on Titus level moon-logic. I mean just making the point that I'm setting up KMD as the fall-guy when he flips Town is Lolz worthy given I spent a goodly long time laying out why I thought KMD was scum and trying to get votes there to no avail. Which he would have known if he had bothered to just read the whole thread.

--

The only thing that really is making me concerned about Axel flipping scum is the way other people in the game are treating him/this wagon. Axel himself just reads completely fine for me. This is something I need to flesh out a bit more in my mind.

Here's something I want you to keep in mind on Axel - just because his posting style is acceptable doesn't mean he's Town. I mean sure he's eloquent with a phrase and willing to put lots of words on the page. But look at the totality of how little he's pushing scum suspects (he only bothered to actualize his Pine case after I called out that he had been saying nothing about his suspect in attempting to get votes there) and how much he spends time defending himself / just kinda being there when he wasn't being called out. Food for thought.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm pretty sure I know who OldMan's main is so this last second addition to my advice - having the main replace into this slot in combination with not activating IC tomorrow is an absolute lock 100% scum-claim.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My last post from a computer until Sunday next week ... anything from here on out is phone posting ...

You first open by saying I am being passive aggressive, I am not. Asking you a real question. If there is anything aggressive in my post it’s because I’ve been frustrated with the situation we are in communication wise.

Second okay let’s say I am 100% to blame for all reasons we aren’t communicating than, I’d really not like to play a blame game and will admit my interactions with you can be better.

I do have a personal beef but I don’t think it’s shaping my read on you. I try my utmost to be as honest with myself when it comes to my reads as possible. If this were just a beef I would say so, there is no reason for me to hide that. But I do think you are trying to intentionally poke me because you know my buttons and I am unsure if that is scum motivated or just your approach to myself. What part is alignment based and what part is just you. I am leaning more you, but I still don’t think you are townie

Do you believe every post of mine lacks scumhunting?

Fire you have no clue how out of the way I've gone to avoid antagonizing you. Seriously no clue at all. I've tried my utmost to avoid unleashing personal feelings into the game. I've been absolutely restrained. You may not believe this but trust me ... I have.

And FMPOV I don't see you much of any scum-hunting. True statement. I've already hashed over and over that your claimed read on me has amounted to "MoI is competent scum so he should be lynched first". Every time we've gone back and forth you've either ducked when I called you out on direct falsehoods (your claimed ability to read me with perfect clarity when WTF ... the evidence says absolutely the opposite) or just said "MoI is scummy for antagonizing me" when I know I've done my utmost not to. Case in point - my statement that you would not keep up the early style of posting. You called this a personal attack but it wasn't. It was my reasoned opinion. And I wasn't wrong since you've 100% dropped your fauxMastin style posting like 3 posts into the game. And your point about me outsourcing my read of you was actually me trying to be nice to you and letting players I trusted who might have a more objective opinion of your play than mine give me solid input. But you somehow tried to peddle that as scummy.

All I'm left with to believe is that your keep calling me scummy with nothing to stand behind as for why (and I'm not the only one who believes this ... multiple people asked you to actually explain your read) because you are trying to drum up support for a axe-to-grind policy lynch on your part. Not that I'm worried but it certainly didn't give me any thoughts you were Town early on.

As to Eddie's "Sheeping is perfect good scum-hunting Elli does it and won a scummy" stance - I don't buy that for a second. It is a bad Appeal to Authority given that Elli clearly did not win Paragon for blindly sheeping.

The last post you made that I could conceivably say contained any actual attempts to find scum (and not just be jovial fun old Fire who likes to have fun and be liked) is 409 and even that was over two weeks ago. I've heard you say in other games that you do things behind the scenes to scum hunt and just because you don't show it doesn't mean you aren't doing it. To which I say if I don't see you doing it here in the thread for all to see and judge I'm not going to assume it is happening elsewhere. Sorry that's a bad assumption you should expect anyone to make.

I don't think we are ever going to have a good base for communication. Our approaches to the game are about 180 degrees away from each other. Hell I pretty much only play Geriatrics to in general avoid players who favor your general approach to the game.

Again ... I'm trying to be cordial and kid gloves with you ... but that goodwill only goes so far and I don't see much of any attempt on your side to meet me halfway on that effort.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wow I take like 18 hours and suddenly a KMD wagon forms that I wanted a week ago.

VOTE: KMD

He already claimed VT.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey still VLA with spotty WiFi and no computer.

VOTE: Oldman

So supposedly scum decided to not kill the only non PGO claim that would 100% confirm themselves today. Either he’s scum or scum gambled he was terrible Town fake claiming since his reads are abysmal. I know which way I lean.

Obv vote is obv at this stage since he’s had over 24 hours to prove himself and nada.

Loling at the people thinking Hito is lynchbait.

Reminder to self to research who floated 3 scum theory I saw earlier when I have a computer.

Still feel largely same on Axel and Insanity especially after their entrances. CooLDoG this is your make or break day so get rolling bud. Where is that scum read on me Insanity?

Second reminder to self - do a full post mortem on Hito’s reads.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also - if Oldman was Town and Lycan scum he’d be absolutely dead given OldMan was THE Lycan scum cheerleader IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey look a quick post from an actual computer ...



But actual detailed content will have to come later today or tomorrow ...



Hopefully by that point OldMan will return. I REALLY want to see his reaction to Lycan.

Have some things to say about Axel also.

Later peeps

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so now that OldMan has chimed in on Lycan’s claim I can talk a little about it. I can see either one being scum just on the basis of the claims. OldMan could be a RoleCop who targeted Lycan and took all the time in the world making his claim today. And Lycan could certainly be scum who counter-claimed with the much easier role to fake that makes sense as Town (Cop over Vig). Seems unlikely that this is one over-complicated bus on OldMan’s part given both being scum means they risk getting counterclaimed by an actual possible investigation role. Not totally out of the question given who OldMan is. But unlikely. And not impossible that they are both Town who have just played bad games so far.

But based on the reactions to the claim I’d lean heavily that Lycan is much more likely to be scum of the two. He has no hesitation to believe the claim of OldMan even when voicing reasons why it could be faked. He 100% believes the claim. Much more likely to come from scum who have no reason to doubt the guilty on them.

OldMan’s logic at 1011 regarding why the fake-claim is, at the most charitable, stupid if he is Town. But given who I believe he is I don’t find it outside of Towngame. But his consistency in wanting Lycan dead probably speaks to a Town mindset. He’s putting the veracity of his claim on the line in the event Lycan is Town.

Overall I find the discussion of “what is reasonable” about the two claims pretty useless on Day 2 with two VT flips for Town players to be engaging in. Far more games are lost by far than won with players thinking they understand the setup with a very sketchy picture.

If I vote in the duo it is probably for Lycan I just really need to mull over how likely it is for Lycan to be scum and for the scum team to have left a hypo-Town OldMan who was the driving force for Lycan yesterday alive even without the now revised claim. For the moment -

UNVOTE: OldMan

--

In other news …

Axel’s analysis at 959, specifically regarding Ginnie, is suspect. The conclusion that scum Ginnie has no reason to unvote him even if Lycan is Town is baffling. Scum Ginnie has reasonable motivation to move off Axel at that stage if both are Town – not participating in a mislynch that looked possible if less likely than Lycan. But this VCA manipulation doesn’t even come into Axel’s analysis. He just justifies that Ginnie is Town regardless. Similar with her Tammy analysis in 962 – it looks further like he’s trying to justify a Tammy read awkwardly with bad wagon analysis when Tammy’s play seems pretty Town on its strengths without all that wordage. Further with 964 – that he seems willing to cop that he can’t come to a conclusion on Pine for “baby” reasons makes that entire post more or less IIoA.

End result – I still think Axel stands a good chance at being scum if Lycan / OldMan is just batshit bad luck mixing with bad play. If Lycan is scum … much less likely and out of my pool for the time being.

--

Eddie’s speculation at 956 sets my teeth on edge as inside knowledge leaking inadvertently.

Pine I’m putting down to Null at this point. Too many posts today like 999 (no, ROFL has it correct that Axel’s post isn’t game-solvey) and 1029 shows he’s not engaging in any critical thought that either of the claims might be fake. If both OldMan and Lycan are Town then he probably stands as a suspect.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If anything, my Gunsmith was probably meant to return a red herring on CoolDog's Paranoid Gun Owner's claim, not on a redundant cop on my top scumread. Please.

This is the one part of OldMan’s current claim process that gives me significant pause in my assessment that he is more likely Town behavioral-wise. Because this makes no sense (it is absolutely moronic to say a PGO is the “red herring” to a Gunsmith) from a plain old-Town Odd Night Gunsmith position considering how OldMan has gone out of his way to explain how much smarter a player he is than the rest of us plebs.

Do you realize that if Lycan lied about his role, he is by definition scum?

But the difference, is, in your theory, even if I am telling the truth or lying about my role, I am by definition town?

[

The bolded is a big old nope dead stop.

--

Pine you will always be my friend but you have to know by now I have a huge aversion to using lazy as an excuse … for example if you want to point to posts that actually look like game-solving from Axel 1061 and 1062 do fit the bill.

Odd-night even-night makes it make sense. A straight cop or gunsmith would be mutually exclusive, but splitting the robust investigator into two, with some red herrings, makes it sensible.

So Pine I want you to talk through the implications of what you are saying here.

What roles would be Red Herrings for each role?
What roles would be False Clears for each role?

After you consider those read 956 in light of the answers to the above questions and tell me what conclusions you might draw. Thanks!

--

I believe that scum!OM wouldn't specifically claim Odd-night if he didn't infer that he had a counterpart to my role

Well if you actually think this and are Town … the only reaction I can muster is …



Really. Because why wouldn’t scum faking an investigative role want to minimize the amount of bullshitted claims they have to justify? Odd Night just means he as scum would not have to fake another Gunsmith result (or use his likely real RoleCop ability to fabricate one) until Day 4 even without “Lol, roleblocked” as a possible escape hatch.

So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Insanity

I didn’t like her yesterday and her posting today doesn’t seem to have much in the way of attempting to solve the game. Instead we get posts like 1095 which in sum total says absolutely nothing. It is the pretty much picture perfect IIoA active lurking.

--

There’s the other side of the equation that you’re left to death tunnel Lycan and since you had potential to be an IC, you’d have more “authority” over what occurs in game.

Pine can agree with me when I say that any halfway decent scum player (anyone in this lobby) would be able to use the kills to gain a free mislynch and then kill you the next night

This.

--

this will probably come as a surprise to no one but i find axel's positioning around the two claims and trying to shoehorn the lynch into that pair to be the scummiest

--

...and then he would have a 1/13 chance of finding the town cop if he was town and a 1/11 chance if he was scum. what is nonsense here?

So? I mean you are arguing badly with statistics here. Just because there was an X-in-Y shot of one event followed by a different X-in-possibility of something happening doesn’t mean it is improbable. You are ignoring that pretty much every branch of the probability tree you are describing is “low percentage” because those percentages all add up to 100% in total.

Mafia isn’t the same as pulling marbles from a bag without replacement.

more like 4:11 is ridiculously scumsided and it wouldn't pass in a normal

And if you had the whole picture of what roles actually exist … maybe you could make that argument. But you can’t. Now as scum you have a better view of the scenery and can make snap predictions like this.

--

=="Red herrings thrown in" doesn't necessarily mean some for each. Cop red herrings would be Godfather and Miller, but the former is rare these days and the latter would have been claimed already by practically anyone on this playerlist. The red herrings were a reference to negative utility around the Gunsmith, namely the Cop, or both, such as a PGO. I might have worded the original statement more clearly than I did, but alas I did not.
==As for a false clear, I mentioned Godfathers, but there is also the possibility of a Traitor, which some variants have been ruled does not trip a Gunsmith. (This is from memory on a heavily-interpreted role, plz don't ask me to troll through dozens of games trying to prove this. It's a thing.)
==956: As I've said, I don't trust my Eddie read. That does make me think, however, that SKs are often immune to Cops and/or Gunsmiths, depending on how results are phrased. Cops may get mafia/not mafia, SKs are sometimes ascetic, SKs have been ruled not to use guns but rather knives, etc.
==I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be looking at in 956. Number of scum is some pretty common sense setup spec, which is NAI, and the rest isn't particularly meaningful or analytical.

Actually the Gunsmith classic false clear is a Mafia Doctor. Surprised you missed this. The reason I brought this up to see your reaction is the fact that what I saw in 956 looks very much like classic scum “Hmmm, no second kill so odds are slim we have a Vig or a SK” from a Mafia Doctor to me.

Hito was a pretty likely mislynch. My best guess is that scum thought he was softing a PR. I really can't think of any other way that killing Hito N1 isn't a tactical error.

Alternatively, Hito makes a lot of sense as a vig kill, with the possibility that scum kill was stopped.

Oh god you aren’t scum are you Pine?

--

So let me ask you Lycan – why did you float the idea that he himself would not have to be the RoleCop as scum when Korts has already specifically told us scum don’t have Daytalk? He’d have no way to have the information on you as scum without he himself being the role since results come AFTER night ends and PTs get closed.

Can’t answer the question?

Tammy

– When you get back to the game I want you to give me some straight talk as to why I shouldn’t be voting Lycan if you think there is any.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Derp forgot the vote tags

VOTE: Insanity

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm sorry you don't understand mechanics Magna.

I’m sorry you don’t understand statistics or apparently low level math ... so there we are I guess.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna

Is doing the exact same thing he is doing yesterday. Picking and choosing that posts that suits his point of view and ignoring anything else.

@Magna, in that post you linked as "active lurking", I literally stated that I currently don't know which claims I believe.

Oh I see, so specifically referencing a post that exemplifies what I consider active lurking is “picking and choosing” …

Insert Rolling Eyes Gif Here

And actively saying you are drawing no conclusions in a post doesn’t make it not an active lurking post. Why you think that …

But for kicks and grins lets talk about all your posts from today and how little actual attempts to solve the game are contained their-in, shall we?

985 – Open the day with some softball comments to Gingie, Rofl and Kison after bemoaning the “wagon” on you. Looking ahead of these questions that were supposedly meant to assess the scumminess there is no direct followup when neither Rofl or Ginngie responds. I find this especially troublesome that if those questions were supposed to help you sort them why did you not even bother to press either of them about it?

Also the “oh a wagon on me” seems pretty empty to me given you posted this right before EOD1 –

Honestly, I'm so tired of dealing with this game that I wouldn't even complain if you decided you wanted to flash lynch me.

986 – Let me summarize this post –

Kison is scum because he doesn’t scum read Rofl and you think he should.
Rofl is “still” scummy.
Lycan is a scum read but you have lots of posts that make you think he could be Town (aka Fence Sitting)
Gut Town reads on Eddie and Axel (but Pine is scum if Axel is)

Superficially that post has many words but when you distill it down you have basically 4.25 solid reads. I also want to address the following –

I think I'm one of the easier mislynches in this playerlist

, so I think it would be less likely that scum would try to buddy me early in the game.

The bolded I think doesn’t pass the smell test since you faced minimal pressure Day 1. And the unbolded I don’t think makes any sense from coming from Town – buddying up to “weaker” players by scum is much more effective than trying to buddy stronger players. Strong Town players tend to die. But “weaker” Town players generally are left to be endgamed.
1006 – This whole post is basically “I disagree with how Kison approaches the game re: Rofl so he’s scum”.

1095 – So I’ve already stated this is IIoA fluff but let’s address it – there is no point saying you can’t come to a conclusion because no Town player should be that sure. There is possibility space for pretty much all permutations of Scum and Town between Lycan and OldMan. And your Tammy comment is basically “I agree with Tammy, but OldMan’s response is reasonable” which is just empty posting and your comment that my post was “interesting” is also empty. What does interesting mean? The answer is nothing – it wants to look like it is saying something but it abdicating actually taking a position.

1096 – More soft back and forth with Kison. And the following –

If the rofl stuff isn't intended to put pressure, I now think that your ISO is concerning because of the lack of alignment-indicative questioning.

You are supposedly already reading Kison as scum for his Rofl interactions so why does his prodding of Rofl for content now make his ISO concerning? It wasn’t already suspicious back at 986?

1127 – Even more softball questioning, this time to Lycan. The part I find problematic is the following –

What is currently your read of Old Man? This post above states both town and scum possibilities.

Why should Lycan having a hard time parsing whether to believe OldMan’s claim be an issue for you since you yourself just stated you have a hard time parsing the claims? Seems odd for you to not be able to solidly commit to a conclusion yet but to be dinging someone else for the exact same action.

So in summary your posts today look to me like scum pretending to scum-hunt with soft questioning and little follow-through when players don’t respond to your questions.


--

Still no time for this. Sorry. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. I suppose I could do one of those V/LA things, but I'm not actually on vacation.

Also would still vote here if that wagon was more active than Insanity’s BTW

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna y u no vote Fire with me?

Because when I wanted pressure on Fire yesterday it was made clear to me that no-one else was really interested. I am not going to just be tilting at windmills pointlessly and Tammy has given me council that what was bugging me the most is probably a personality dispute as opposed to me seeing scumminess.

But sell me again on your Fire case because I've been talked out of scum reading him. Maybe I need to be pointed in the correct direction as to what makes him scum other than what I always thinks makes him scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

It's a dumb question

Not really.

I'm trying to parse if you are just terrible Town who doesn't bother to pay any attention to detail (like the fact that Kison EXPLICITLY ruled out Daytalk in the opening post to Day 1) or are scum trying for some sort of Derp Clear by floating that non-sense.

I mean the Day 1 game state and the fact that wagon just sort of hung in the "just out of lynch reach" on both you and Axel for a LONG time before the flash wagon on KMD makes me think you are both Town and scum just figured that momentum would take its course as deadline approached. But I know your reasoning on scum reading me is pretty laughably incorrect and for all my dislike of Eddie's garbage math he feels pretty motivated to get your lynch when scum pushing that hard on a claimed Investigative role would be getting backlash. So I know 1 of your 3 reads is wrong and feel more likely a second is two. How much FMPOV should I ascribe that to bad reads and how much to scum faking reads?

[MagnaofIllusion]

AKA, 11 town and 3 scum very probably, 10 town and 4 scum if you're Magna.

See its shit like this that I make me say "Fuck off Eddie you pompus moron" and just take a contra position on anything you have to say.

I never said that it HAS to be 4 scum. I said it is possible.

You however simply want to strawman that.

If you are Town you are doing the literal worst possible job of making me want to listen to you and lynch in the claims.

So great work there Tex.

I'm done with this thread for awhile. Like 2 people besides me seem to care to put in more than minimal effort and none of them engender any goodwill to want to work with them if I think they are Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna's 1150 about me feels like retrospectively finding problems with my posts in order to justify his read. It reminds me a lot of his case on Axelrod back on Day 1, where I felt he was nit picking to find posts that supported his new conclusion of Axelrod-scum. So, the scumread on Magna is growing again.

List is textbook handwaving BTW. Retrospectively finding problems? Everything in a Mafia game is retrospective ... hard to analyze a post someone hasn't made ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so I'm sick and tired of seeing stupid math attempts to say Lycan is scum. If you want to say his play is scummy for many other reasons (like, for example, that he was fixated on attacking people who doubted the fake-IC claim as scummy which is more likely to come from scum who is not OldMan's partner and thus knows he's Town) go for it ... that is going to more likely convince people.

Really this whole issue probably could have been avoided if hypoTown OldMan had just claimed a Night result on Lycan that indicated scum and made him claim BEFORE claiming the Gunsmith portion so as to no make it easy for Lycan to fake-claim the perfect role if he is scum but that is neither here nor there.

Anyway - back to the maths - none of you trying to use them apparently have ever taken any classes on statistics.

The odds Lycan drew ANY role in that game are exactly the same - 1/15. Eddie keeps going on on about how there are three times as many scum as supposed Cops (and for the sake of this analysis I'm just going with a 3/12 assumption without a Mafia Doctor which would make the statistics even more likely to mean Lycan is Town ... also just assuming OldMan is Town which is not written in stone).

So the odds Lycan drew his claimed Cop role if Town are 1/15. And the odds he drew any scum role are 1/15.

After Day 1 KMD Town is dead. Which means in this scenario there are 3 scum and 11 Town left. OldMan being Town in this scenario means there are 3 Mafia and 10 Town to investigate.

Decision Trees operate on a multiplicative process for scenarios without replacement (which this is).

Odds Lycan is Town Cop are as follows -

1/15 (Odds he drew Cop role) times 10/13 (odds OldMan investigated a Town player) times 1 (number of trees that lead to this result) = 5.13%

Odds Lycan is Scum fake-claiming Cop are as follows -

1/15 (Odds he drew any one scum role) times 3/13 (odds Oldman investigated a scum player) times 3 (number of trees that lead to this result) = 4.62%

Note that this includes just under 10% of the possibilities in the given scenario. Which makes sense given how many other players are in the game.

So the odds that he's Town or Scum or pretty much within 0.5% of each other just on pure statistical chance. That is the ONLY way you can use statistics in an attempt to suggest Lycan is more likely scum or Town.

So stop using bad math to prove your point. If you are Town I get you believe he's scum but using garbage to prove it makes every other part of your case look less credible.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey Pine why don’t you give me your full read list - Town / Null / Scum as of right now?

Should not take long and I’d really love a better idea where your reads sit as a whole.

Thanks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

So since the game is at a standstill due to replacement requests (I’ll give my thoughts post game on those) I’m going to recenter my thoughts by rereading Hito and KMD and digging into the VCs from Day 1.

That process should be done late tomorrow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Your math literally proves me right that its scumsided...

10:3 and 11:4 have the same amount of mislynches... and 1 more scum lynch required. 1 more scum influencing everything. is 107:100 balanced? After all, the chances town has to fuck up and get it right remain equivalent.

Eddie you get that the difference between 13 and 15 players in a game is pretty minor, right? I mean you are approaching this like there is a fundamental strong difference when really the difference is mostly the established site labels of Mini and Large which really are arbitrary.

You want to argue there should be a big difference between games with 13 and 20 players you have my attention. But trying to say 11:4 is completely out of the question without the full setup is poor play at best.

In fact if you are Town I’d expect you to want to default to considering 11:4 to minimize the chances Town gets caught with a “Surprise LYLO” situation. That you are so dead set against it causes my concern.

[MagnaofIllusion]

UNVOTE: insanity – part of my reset.

So I ran through Hito’s ISO. The pool of people who were consistently in his pool of scum are in rough tiers of

Lycan / Pine
Eddie / Insanity

By the end of the day he had Gingie as his top Town slot, thought Axel and Tammy were more likely Town but had reasons to suspect them somewhat on a Town KMD flip (Axel for general weak play that could no longer be blamed on lack of flips, Tammy for diverting from Lycan to KMD at the deadline).

So regardless of how much you think NK analysis is bunk I’m willing to put stock that probably at least 2 of the following were scum in his reads and that accuracy was a contributing factor (along with him being active and reasonable and very Town) to his death –

Lycan – Pine – Eddie - Insanity – Tammy – Axel

Now further I think that odds are pretty strong that Lycan and Axel are both the same alignment (Town or scum, if there is a third party floating around here then that muddies the waters but so far no direct signs). I say this because of how the wagons from Korts 678 to 842 looked. For about a week Lycan and Axel set pretty much in direct competition with little movement. Yet when Tammy started the KMD Town flashwagon it grew legs and exploded.

It doesn’t make any sense for Lycan and Axel to be a Scum / Town pairing (or even a Scum / 3rd Party pairing thinking as I type this) for one of them as scum to have sat for basically a week with a viable not-partner wagon in close proximity and for their scum partners to just kinda sit on their hands not trying to get the not-partner pushed to at least claiming. Now both Town? Scum don’t care which hangs and really don’t even care too much when Town KMD gets deadline flash-wagonned (although I’d think they would not necessarily cluster onto it as they could use it to make hay in further days mislynch pushes). Both Scum? They both were off each other for so long I don’t think there was any expectation that cross bussing would get any credit and the KMD wagon was a gift horse. In that case think partners are more motivated to join that mislynch wagon to make sure deadline doesn’t scum’s way.

I said yesterday I didn’t feel that Lycan’s slow wagon felt like it was on scum. Still to some degree feel that way. Which means I by default think that Axel is leaning Town even though he’s doing exactly what Hito warned against – weakly suggesting things but not having any more conviction than yesterday.

Related I think OldMan is diametrically opposed to Lycan alignment wise – a scum Lycan flip means I don’t worry about his alignment until we get much closer to a LYLO situation which I expect neither of us will be living for. If he is still alive with a Lycan flip near expected LYLO regardless of whatever narrative is floated everyone absolutely has to go back and fully assess whether the Lycan play was a bus. Based on who OldMan probably is that’s hardly a stretch but not worth worrying about short-term.

Tammy’s slot is now in my Null reads. I really haven’t liked her play since the start of today. I read her discussion about being busy and prioritizing real life but I can’t help feeling that her replace out frustration had as much to do with the difficulty in keeping up appearances as scum as opposed to not liking the suspicion. To some degree I feel that she wasn’t as much wanting to work with me to sort reads as move me off reads (Axel / Fire / Insanity) that I had and it feels bad. I’m not sloting he as scum yet but I can’t ignore the little warning signal in my gut and continue to slot her as Town.

Cooldog I would at this point policy given that he pretty much stopped playing the game mid / late Day 1 and unlike OldMan / Lycan he will likely never be sorted by the Nightgame.

I want to go back and re-read the start of today looking at everyone who tried to make sure no-one looked to hard into Hito’s reads with the NK WIFOM blanket stance and cross reference those players with Hito’s suspect pool.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also if you are Town and in this game and doing jack crap you suck.

Unmotivated ... boring ... blah blah blah ... scum is damn happy to just sit around doing nothing and blend in.

If you are Town stop being a whiny baby and act like it. Play the damn game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In reply to Axel –

Regarding it being “hard to play” when we have 4 replacements – this is factually correct and absolutely not an excuse for Town players to not be putting in effort. You have a whole Days posts to analyze and two flips with which to parse players. Just because there are empty slots who you can’t directly interact with doesn’t mean you can’t see what the previous inhabitants posted before for digestion. Frankly it is a cop-out response and why despite my head saying you logically are more likely Town my gut screams coasting scum. And as to the questions –

1. Are you not reading the thread? This information has already been provided in the game by myself and Tammy. To re-iterate – I rarely delegate my reads because there are rarely players in the games I play who I would trust to sheep before even considering whether I Town read them. “The Thaw” (Mini Normal modded by Nexus) is a recent example cited by Tammy – I sheeped Grey on a read early on while trying to get sorted with him. I’ve also cited the Nearly Vanilla game where I worked hand in hand with Tammy (part of a Tammy / Nacho hydra) to vet reads. As to my thoughts on Firebringer now that he flaked out – I have zero respect for his ability to read me as my evidence presented showed.

2. KMD’s claim required no response. He claimed VT. I don’t care how Town you think that is you don’t let a VT claim who played suspect enough to get to L-1 or whatever to claim live. That’s Mafia 101. Proper play Day 1 in that situation is hammer that slot 100 out of 100 times. It prevents scum from claiming VT under the WIFOM that “Only Town claims VT” (which is a bad stance, seen scum claim it before and have done so myself). It also prevents the possibility another Town who isn’t a VT gets run up to claim. Frankly he never should have claimed at all which is the proper play for a VT in his situation Day1.

Now … some questions for you.

1. Why should I not see these questions as scum perspective filler? You are either asking for information already stated in thread or asking pointless theory questions. What sort of response to these do you think would possibly “help” you find scum?

2. Why are you softly piddling around talking about the KMD wagon when you don’t know Lycan’s alignment and seem to be leaning that it is scum? Why do you think it is reasonable for scum to flash wagon KMD if you think Lycan is scum when you were widely scum-read and could have been lynched and have already stated you would be a “better mislynch” for scum?

3. What do you think about my reasoning about you and Lycan sharing the same alignment? What is your read on insanity and what do you think of the wagon that developed on that slot?

4. What do you think of the discrepancy between Firebringer's claimed ability to read me and the evidence I presented and what do you think that Fire refused to engage on that point when I refuted it?

[MagnaofIllusion]

mm I'm just happy cause the game will be essentially sped up 2 phases

So out of interested Eddie my man what are your reads on those four slots?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Korts

- Can we get a Vote Count when you get a chance? I know we are in replacement limbo but I'd like an idea where things stand. Thanks!

--

Welcome Mom and OTM. Very interested to see what your slots bring to actually playing the game now that they are filled, especially Mom since she replaced Fire who was less than useful.

VOTE: Pine

I hate having my vote idle and since Insanity now has flipped Town another re-read is in order. Plus really need to see where my head is at because I feel like I have no Town reads anymore thanks to all the replace-outs.

Wonder if OldMan is the next flake?

Wonder if both Cooldog and Lycan (his slot twice in fact) would flake out from claimed Town PRs?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I asked u a q moi!!

Yup a question I had already just given you all the information about.

Tammy - now Null given the fade out and her penchant for hating scum play.
Cooldog - Null given he dropped out late Day 1 and his claim is a liability given he put in minimal effort.
Insanity - Scummy obv
Firebringer - Honorary Scumbag Useless Town or Scumbag Who Gets Away With Scummy Play Because He Plays Scummy As Town on Purpose. Aka who knows.

Did you just "You too" me the question right back? Do you think that's good Town play.

Do you think that my suspicion that your glee with potentially 4 modkills is unwarranted given you only really scum read 1 of them?

pgo isnt rwally a pr, doubt that's ai anyways though

Actually it is my fucking dream role. Claim exactly as Cooldog did but be obv-Town in scum-hunting and openness of thought. Make scum absolutely have a tough as hell possible choice - potentially expose themselves pushing obv-Town or bite the bullet early to remove me.

So it is absolutely a PR worth having.

Whether Cooldog's flake is alignment indicative is up for discussion.

Twyin / Lycan's I think is much more likely to be alignment indicative given the way both flaked.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey OTM remember the last time you replaced into a game I was in and focused on role mechanics as opposed to scum-hunting?

Don't do that here please.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Only if this game was approved AFTER the change. You'd need to vet that before even bothering with the rest.

But sadly you are scum Pine so this is just you looking for a way to get a mislynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI

I am not scum

Please don't make me prove it

That you post this regardless of your alignment makes me want to throw up my hands like so ...



I mean ... if you are Town it is your damn job to "prove it". I mean has the site fallen so far that Firebringer style play is now considered the norm and being authentic Town who wants to not herp-a-derp shitpost is something shameful?

[MagnaofIllusion]

On another note -

Welcome

Rayfrost

. Quick question - were you following along with this or did you come in more or less cold?

Thanks!

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was trying to get a foothold without reading just to see responses.

Unless it was right and verified by others I wouldn’t push.

Pedit I haven’t. Surgery took a lot out of me and just tried using rules for reactions I could sort as I am sleepy.

Well rest up and recover. Probably best to do a quick read while you are on the mend.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I had some words for magna but just deleted it, w.e. if you arent going to acknowledge being wrong I'd appreciate you limit how much you address me. I'm bad at ignoring people.

pedit; iso hito thatll give you a good baseline

Nah - you’ll just have to learn to deal with being pressed.

I mean it is very anti Town to want a bunch of players Modkilled especially with pretty much no solid scum reads in the group. Sorting everyone is my job. So deciding whether you are scum comes right along with it.

When not phone posting I’ll explain why Tywin’s replace out is reasonably scum read.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: OnTheMark

That last post ..

How the hell do you not see a setup possible when supposedly you are Town who doesn’t know the makeup of Scum roles.

I find it hard to believe knowing your main that you post this right after I reminded you how bad role analysis helped scum greatly in the Thaw. It would require you to have learned NO lesson at all.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So first a catch-up of various issues –

On why Tywin’s replace-out is a reasonable to be indicative of scum:

In a non-Open set-up a Town investigation role is pretty much the golden ticket to not being lynched, especially Day 1 unless you are playing in a game with really, really bad Town players. If you think this isn’t the case stop reading because your POV will never reconcile with mine. You can see evidence of the strength of an Investigation claim in OldMan’s continued survival today – even with his bad play and Day 1 IC fake-claim people generally are willing to let him live for at least a few days til his claim is busted or proves likely true.

So put yourself in Tywin’s shoes as hypothetical Town Even Night Cop on Day 1. He’s getting pressure and despite his attempts to explain his thoughts the pressure is not abating. Town Tywin knows regardless of how bad his play is he’s got his claim in his pocket. And as hypo-Town has to believe he will not get counterclaimed by scum because that is effectively a death sentence for one scum by Day 2 (setting aside the current potential conflict with OldMan’s claim which Day 1 was unknown).

Is it possible Tywin Town just decided the game wasn’t fun and flaked despite having a powerful Town role? Yes. Is it also possible that Tywin isn’t a Town Investigative role and felt flaking and getting a potential replacement halo for his slot was better served than trying to continue to fake hunting for scum in the face of pressure. There is enough reasonable scum motivation in the way Tywin’s flake developed that I am considering it as part of my overall read on that slot.

No replace out / flake is purely alignment indicative (and if it is that player should probably be banned for using Trust tells if it is Town indicative or quit playing Mafia if scum indicative). But the nature of Tywin’s flake given the subsequent claim by Lycan puts it as within the realm of reason.

--

@Mom

– I’ve already laid out in my ISO at various points why behaviorally I scum read Axel – his posting reads to me more like scum faking hunting than someone actually involved in trying to find scum. But situationally I am at the point I only think he’s scum if he’s scum with Lycan’s slot.

I’ll be very curious to see your reads upon finishing your read-up

@OTM

– Please refresh my memory of any other games besides Thaw or The Thing where we have played together not as scum partners. I am having a hard understanding how you honestly believe I’m an easy read when we’ve played like 2 non-partner games together that I can recall and one of those you replaced in and went bug-nutty with pushing for claim information that caused you to out a Town PR and get lynched as Town. The only other game that came to mind was Stephen Universe 2 and you were dead before I replaced in. I mean … maybe you honestly believe it but I don’t understand how you do.

And regarding 1363 – why in the hell would you think that it being a scum claim given the information was readily available early Day 1 and busted right then for obvious reasons? Also why do you think scum would just unbidden fake-claim something not possibly in the game?

Frankly until LYLO or the day before you should not be this interested in setup speculation in a non-Open game if you are Town.

@ROFL

– Why are you bothering to ask Axel to vote Pine if you think they are scum partners?

--

Next Task – do a sanity check for myself on the whole player-list using Hito’s reads and assuming Lycan / Axel as both Town and Scum to see where I think that leaves me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Axel

I'd be more inclined to agree with you had his flake not been site-wide. It's hard to pin the replace out on this game going south when it wasn't limited to here.

Site-wide really only is relevant to the discussion IMO is if he replaced out of like 5 or 6 games simultaneously. What games did he replace / flake from Kison? Or was it a matter of him just not posting? If you did legwork to ascertain this I'd like to hear the details.

@magna — You have lazy me. There may or may not be other games. I just don’t remember misreading you like ever. So hence you’re an easier read than say Eddie or Lycanfire.

Well given you've been able to exactly demonstrate one single game where you actually had to read me (the Thing) I'm trying to decide whether you are Town Math who doesn't want to grapple with X=1 being a bad, bad sample size or if you are scum Math trying to somehow artificially inflate how well you read me for purposes of pushing a mislynch at some point. I already had one case of this to grapple with in Firebringer. Not really liking a second one.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I hate every one of you that got prodded.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Axel

I'd be more inclined to agree with you had his flake not been site-wide. It's hard to pin the replace out on this game going south when it wasn't limited to here.

Site-wide really only is relevant to the discussion IMO is if he replaced out of like 5 or 6 games simultaneously. What games did he replace / flake from Kison? Or was it a matter of him just not posting? If you did legwork to ascertain this I'd like to hear the details.

@magna — You have lazy me. There may or may not be other games. I just don’t remember misreading you like ever. So hence you’re an easier read than say Eddie or Lycanfire.

Well given you've been able to exactly demonstrate one single game where you actually had to read me (the Thing) I'm trying to decide whether you are Town Math who doesn't want to grapple with X=1 being a bad, bad sample size or if you are scum Math trying to somehow artificially inflate how well you read me for purposes of pushing a mislynch at some point. I already had one case of this to grapple with in Firebringer. Not really liking a second one.

The point is X=2 not one. Thaw and Thing. If you’re going to attack me, at least do it well.

OTM you were in Thaw for like 15 minutes so I really don’t think you can claim to have actually gotten a read.

But that said two games just as abysmal for sample size on accurate reads and the fact you keep softly floating me as a scum team member means you are misreading me here.

Thus I will continue to noodle over your alignment.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Well if Lycan and you are Town Pine Eddie is so likely scum I’d have to vote Park there.

But still unsure on Lycan / Otter ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hmmm time to think about Pine’s claim and read him in context because I need to see if his reaction to OldMan’s fake IC claim makes sense and puzzle over why he didn’t have a problem with OldMan and Lycan both being Town information roles as a claimed Town backup.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Okay explain me why you are.

I don’t see any protown posts from Magna and all he seems to do is destroy.

If you were Town and I’m as easy as read as you present this post never appears.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't remember Lycan claiming any kind of investigative

Maybe keep reading ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

the mod won't answer mechanics questions that are standard to normal games? This is me playing the game, a big part of normal games is setup spec because there's a finite amount of possibilities. That's the point of it not being a theme game. But, sure, I'll post that too.

No, not really. If you want the Mod to spoon-feed you information related to the setup play in Opens.

Normals exists as the middle ground between Opens (all disclosed information) and Themes (where apparently Lulz wildness is now the norm). Predictable mechanics and expected information about roles are to be taken for granted but whether any roles are in the game are not. Good Mods generally dislike answering hypothetical questions about interactions when players have no reason to know whether said roles are in the game because too many players assume because a question was answered that means that Player X's claim is confirmed by the Mod.

Korts is well within his rights to say what he said.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ever going to interact with my prodding on Tammy meta?

I had some words for magna but just deleted it, w.e. if you arent going to acknowledge being wrong I'd appreciate you limit how much you address me. I'm bad at ignoring people.

Make up you mind. I really don't have a bunch of patience for passive aggressive bullshit.

Frankly I'm at the point where like Radiant and Math I'm happy to draw my read on you indirectly because I'm not really interested in working with someone who clearly thinks he's much better at Mafia than me and is "appalled" at my play even if I think they are Town.

And I'm clearly not there with you given that you were a solid scum read for Hito and in a world where Lycan is Town you make tons of sense for the reason he's pushing up daisies.