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Post #2554 (isolation #200) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:32 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 2551, Mitillos wrote:@Shoshin: She seemed convinced that her meta townread on N_M was valid. I can definitely chalk that down to confirmation bias (given that I disagreed with the reasoning itself). Also, if she were scum, you'd think that she'd be just making empty "he's town" posts, for the credit. My impression was that she really really wanted to stop the lynch. I don't think she is scummy.
No, I don't think Nancy would just make empty "he's town" posts. Those don't give credit to anyone? Especially not in this playerlist. Most of us are a bit more sophisticated thinkers than that.
Why was she convined NM was town? Was her reasoning something she's likely to believe as town? I understand that you think it's possible she's town. I'm saying it's unlikely. Why are you defending her when nothing you're saying has any inkling of town?
In post 2549, Shoshin wrote:the worst, Nancy is scum. Please trust me on this.
I actually think you may possibly be clueless town here afterall because you wouldn’t want to be responsible for pushing 2 mislynches back to back.
Because, no one in this game will townread you after my flip. So if you’re actually town here, you don’t want to be the 3rd mislynch following me, I hope?
Are you townreading this defense, the worst? It's entirely fear-based reasoning (i.e. "don't lynch me because when I flip town you're going to be mislynched too"). Extremely manipulative.
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Post #2562 (isolation #202) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:43 pm
Postby Shoshin »
Like, let's recap the end of D1. You've got multiple townies pushing NM (me, Irrelephant, the worst, Nauci). There's no scum on the wagon at this point. With a bunch of strong town voices pushing NM, why would scum vote him? Why not let town implode on itself while townreading him? That's my first thought looking back. So I'm looking to see who was avoiding the wagon and why. Performer/Mew/Creature were voting Creature. I don't see those players actually defending NM, though. They're not looking for town credit. Then there's Koki. He's throwing out townreads on NM, in the same way he tends to play as either alignment. It's null for him. And then there's Nancy, strongly calling NM ton for reasons that don't square at all with her normal way of thinking as town. It's completley out of character for her. And then she opens D2 suddenly trying to discredit me for the rest of the game because of one mislynch and casting suspicion on me for things that she'd never suspect me for as town (i.e. ignoring NM's reads). To me, that feels like scum who is trying to take advantage of the fact that they townread a mislynched player while trying to create more mislynching options among players who were strongly townread on D1. It's the ideal scum strategy of breaking up the strong town core of myself, the worst, Nauci, especially now that Irrelephant is dead and he's not around to defend me anymore.
That's where I'm at. I have a difficult time ever seeing Nancy flip town here. If nobody wants to lynch her until LYLO, fine, whatever. I'll be pushing her until she's dead.
In post 2564, the worst wrote:Shoshin is basically never scum here but I'm also starting to think I should probably be townreading Nancy as well.
Why is she town?
More that this start to day two doesn't read like scum!her. She's a lot less aggressive and more pockety--i get that shooting Rel then tunnelling {you, me, Varsoon} is a good way to break up the PoE but I'm pretty sure Nancy realises as scum that she doesn't have the towncred to actually successfully pull it off. The way she's fighting you here is also pretty full of conviction (which she can fake to an extent but I don't think she sounds this good as scum unless she's on her A++ game).
I think you're severely underestimating her. She's obviously becoming more comfortable playing scum (there's clearly a progression in Heroes Wanted that shows her getting more comfortable over time) so yes she's capable of faking all this stuff. I haven't seen anything from her that's beyond her capabilities.
I don't understand how you can say she's town for fighting me with conviction. I feel like that's the easiest thing to fake as scum (outrage that someone's calling you scum isn't hard to do, especially when all you do is call the other person scum at the same time that you call their reads bad). I see her overreacting in a way she wouldn't be as town.
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Post #2580 (isolation #207) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 1:11 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 1951, skitter30 wrote:
i don't really have a reason for not_mafia either way; he's *slightly* on the townie side of null but i always want him resolved before lylo
like i wont' object to his lynch, but i wont' particularly go out of my way to make it happen tho; i feel like lynching not_mafia is kinda like a *disappointing* ending to a day this long and would prefer to lynch someone i actually think is scummy tho
This is how I would have expected town Nancy to react to NM if she thought he was townish. Compared with Skitter, Nancy's certainty that NM was going to flip town just doesn't make any sense.
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Post #2606 (isolation #210) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:20 pm
Postby Shoshin »
Irrelephant would have rather been lynched then let me be lynched... so why would I ever kill him as scum? If I were scum playing the way I am (and I wish I could play scum like this), I take Irrelephant with me to 3-way LYLO because that wins me the game.
Irrelephant's death should confirm me in Nancy's eyes, not only because Irrelephant knows me better than anyone else on this site and has a flawless record of reading me, but mainly because Nancy seems to be giving lots of weight to what dead townies thought about the game.
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Post #2609 (isolation #211) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:23 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 2608, the worst wrote:Shoshin/me w/w in particular never kills Rel
If you don't expressly townread both of us you're mad to think we are ever scum together
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Post #2622 (isolation #214) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 2:42 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 2612, AlmostNancy wrote:
The main problem with Shoshin’s argument, is obviously there’s at least 3 scum in the game but in MU Greek Mythology game, I stupidly stopped the lynch on godfather Batman, only to be rewarded with a N1 NK.
That game isn't remotely comparable, the biggest differences being the strength of Irrelephant's townread on me, Irrelephant's extensive knowledge of my meta, his willingness to follow my reads in most cases, and the fact that he had already claimed a non-threatening role to the scum. If I were scum, I never kill him here.
The existence of three scum is irrelevant. Scum do what wins them the game. If a player townreads scum to the extent that Irrelephant townread me, a player who already claimed a non-threatening role to the scum, scum probably leave that player alive on N1. Whoever killed Irrelephant found him threatening enough to think that it was worth killing him over trying to kill a potential power role (investigative, protective, etc.). The likely reason for Irrelephant's death is that he correctly scumread at least one of the scum, and/or scum have a protective role (bulletproof, doctor, or whatever) that they feared would be lynched today and they wanted to kill Irrelephant while they had the chance. Whatever the case, it's never me.
Like, think about Labyrinth mafia. Why didn't scum ever kill you despite being confirmed town? Because you townread the scum. There's exceptions to that general rule, but not in a case like this where Irrelephant townread me to the extent he did. It's odd that you're discounting that and immediately assuming I'm scum for pushing you a bit.
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Post #2637 (isolation #215) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:34 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 2632, Varsoon wrote:@Shoshin: I thought you didn't mislynch people?
What's the deal?
Knew this was coming... I never said I don't mislynch, I just didn't in the game you think I lost us and I didn't in Labyrinth (so Nancy is temporarily forgiven for expecting better). Yes, I was wrong about NM. I saw reasons to townread him but ignored them over the reasons to scumread him, so it's my bad.
That said, I don't think that means I'm suddenly wrong about my overall take on the game. I'm reevaluating but my top townreads are still town, and Irrelephant's death strengthens those reads on the worst and Nauci. This game feels like American Presidents, where we were onto scum on D1 but ended up mislynching, but by D2 we had scum narrowed down enough to win.
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Post #2643 (isolation #218) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:41 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 2642, AlmostNancy wrote:You’re missing the point. He quoted a very similar post by me and implied it was scummy. It’s the hypocrisy part of it, which pinged me.
I dunno. Hypocrisy is usually town unless there's a clear scum motive.
In post 2642, AlmostNancy wrote:You’re missing the point. He quoted a very similar post by me and implied it was scummy. It’s the hypocrisy part of it, which pinged me.
I dunno. Hypocrisy is usually town unless there's a clear scum motive.
Why is it usually town?
Scum tend to be more self-conscious of what they're doing, which tends to make them more self-aware of acting hypocritically. Scum act hypocritically when they're pushing an agenda, but otherwise hypocrisy usually comes from town.
can you please lynch Koki & Shoshin after we flip?
Also, tw is very likely town despite of Nancy not liking his play.
Please remember to lynch Koki & Shoshin after we are confirmed. Thank you.
Over to you, Nancy.
It's pretty odd that A50 is suddenly calling for my lynch. It's also odd that he's this worried about getting lynched when I'm the only person voting their slot and everyone I've interacted with up to this point was defending them against me.
In post 2674, Shoshin wrote:It's pretty odd that A50 is suddenly calling for my lynch. It's also odd that he's this worried about getting lynched
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Worried? ME??? FROM YOU?????
If you weren't worried, why were you talking about who to lynch after your flip, as if your lynch was happening? That's not usually how someone who isn't worried talks...
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Post #2728 (isolation #226) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:07 pm
Postby Shoshin »
Key has these hints of towniness, a lot of his posts feel really towny by themselves. But overall, he's much less aggressive and much more passive than his usual town self. What are your thoughts, Nauci?
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Post #2731 (isolation #227) » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:10 pm
Postby Shoshin »
For me personally, aggressivness/passivity ranges a lot based on how busy I am, so I kinda want to townread Key because of his really towny posts even though a lot of his usual town play is missing. There's nothing actually scummy about him.
No what does the correlation between that and my vote
Felt like a turning point in the game in terms of whether focus would turn onto Mew or Key. You voted Key instead of Mew, and naturally with multiple votes his way, there's more discussion about him. So I'm trying to get a sense of what you specifically think of Mew. Why aren't you townreading him? What's your read?
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Post #2872 (isolation #231) » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:19 pm
Postby Shoshin »
No idea what Varsoon talking about re: flavor or multiball. Doesn't feel like something that come from town, more like scum trying to shake things up. Also don't like that he's saying I'm not around, trying to plant seeds of paranoia about me.
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Post #2874 (isolation #232) » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:23 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In post 2867, Varsoon wrote:Yeah, I think this is actually why Shoshin got thrown off.
This feels a TMI pocket. Aren't you expecting me to suck? And who is to say I was thrown off yet? One mislynch on D1 doesn't mean I'm on the wrong track?
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Post #3008 (isolation #237) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:16 am
Postby Shoshin »
In post 3005, Varsoon wrote:Also, I wouldn't tilt this hard as third party, trust.
I'd want to keep a low profile and avoid flavor spec that could make me seem informed.
I don't see you tilting? Why are you pretending that's the case?
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Post #3047 (isolation #239) » Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:53 pm
Postby Shoshin »
In short, Key's scum because he's more passive, more non-committal, less analytical, and less aggressive than he is as town. The main points:
1. He's doing the typical scum thing of popping in just enough to avoid too much suspicion. As town, Key is usually actively engaged in moving the game forward with aggressive questioning. As scum, Key tends to be much less aggressive. This game fits his scum meta when it comes to levels of engagement, passivity, and aggression.
2. He's more non-committal than I've ever seen him as town. He constantly posts "maybe X but maybe not" posts, which don't actually take a clear position about anything. He constantly calls things "interesting" instead of taking a meaningful position about them (this is actually a scum tell for a surprisingly large number of players, specifically calling lots of things "interesting," "weird," "odd," etc., - probably an unconscious attempt to avoid scum telling by revealing as little information as possible about one's perspective). The point is that Key's not taking clear positions in the way he usually do as town.
3. He's been speculating about third party or "solo scum" more than feels natural for town. For example, rather than push on Creature as mafia, he pushes Creature as "third party." When he says that Performer's "probably town," he notes that Performer "could be solo scum." It feels like Key's looking for third party rather than mafia, which suggests he's operating from an informed perspective about who the mafia are. While town sometimes look for third party, or think a player looks like third party, it's rare that town start speculating about multiple players as third party while calling those players "probably town."
4. He's been pushing a scum agenda by trying to challenge our townreads from taking hold. He pushed on Irrelephant (obvious town), the worst (obvious town), and then supported both Varsoon/Xtom for questioning the early townreads. This is out of character for town Key, who in both games I've seen gave out lots of early townreads and didn't show anything close to the level of irrational paranoia he's had this game about early townreads. In American Presidents, we had just as many early townreads as this game and Key was one of the players giving them out. In schadd's game, same. What's different in this game? If anything, players were town telling harder than in those other games. Yet Key's reacting differently? That's a sign of a change in perspective & win condition.
Really important shit if I die tonight, but I'm sure you numbskulls will completely not listen to me:
Performer is very likely scum with that claim.
If Kokichi isn't confirmed as town, he is confirmed as scum.
Look really really close at what I've posted today. It'll serve as your roadmap to scum.
Don't let this be another TAZ.
If you're hiding something in some crumb somewhere, please just say it outright. As for Koki, don't worry, he's dying if he isn't confirmed.
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Post #3193 (isolation #243) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:13 am
Postby Shoshin »
In post 3183, Nauci wrote:Maybe this is like American Presidents where town basically did catch multiple scum early but kept thinking that only one of the competing wagons could be scum instead of that all of the candidates were
This is my sense. I don't see resistance to the Performer/Mew wagons, just a lot of movement from townies trying to choose the highest percentage lynch.
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Post #3230 (isolation #246) » Wed Dec 19, 2018 6:40 am
Postby Shoshin »
So, just to make sure I understand, Key is told if someone has a gun? If they do, they're a town killing role or mafia? And if they don't, they're a town pr or third party?
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Post #3406 (isolation #249) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:15 am
Postby Shoshin »
I have the worst, Nauci, Skitter, Varsoon, and Nancy as varying degrees of town.
I expect Koki to prove himself town tomorrow so I'm treating him as town today. If he's scum, we'll reevaluate everything tomorrow.
That leaves Key, Mew, Mitillos, Xtom, and Performer. We need to sort the scum between these players.
I don't think Key/Mew/Performer are scum together. It seems unlikely that they'd coordinate an attack on Creature on D1, only to kill Creature during N1. There's at least one town in this group.
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Post #3454 (isolation #257) » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:33 pm
Postby Shoshin »
Okay, Nancy. I'm glad you're around. Can you give me a summary of where you stand on the game? Who are you willing to lynch? Who are you unwilling to lynch?
In post 3436, Xtoxm wrote:But if we ended up in a spot we thought was lylo and went for a massclaim, and it turns out no one dead or alive claims invest, would you agree keys is then very likely town?
If yes, why risk lynching the invest today?
Perf claims protective. We have a dead protective. Perf can never be cleared by setup spec. Keys potentially could, as well as providing a headache for scum if he is town.
Lynching an invest claim with no counters on D2 is a really high risk play we don't need to take.
p-ed: I'm frustrated at Keys lack of doing much as well, i'm not sure he's ever placed a vote since RVS? But that doesn't mean i'm willing to risk lynching him at this stage of the game.
@Shoshin, @anyone.
Tell me, how this isn’t town?
Xtom isn't scumhunting? He's just trying to outguess the mod ("this game has to have investigatives"). Why is this town?