Mini 2017: Encore Mafia - Now Without Cults [Endgame]

[mastina]

Phoneposting, so can't do my normal town town scum scum thing, link to stuff, go into detail yet, etc., but.
VOTE: Awoo.
Others posting are town/town?, will give details when home.
Also, will'crumb later (it's a video, so can't breadcrumb right now), but my wiki page is fairly up to date and my past roles are all there.

[mastina]

Also, will'crumb later (it's a video, so can't breadcrumb right now), but my wiki page is fairly up to date and my past roles are all there.

Alright, so the detailed version: my wiki page is

slightly

out-of-date, but I'm fairly confident there are no completed games unlisted on there. (Though, there are games that are listed as ongoing which have since completed.)
Excluding alts/hydras as they aren't eligible, I have had the following roles in games that are classified as completed:

• Vanilla Townie 5 times
  
• Neighborizer 2.5 times (Second game was not JUST a neighborizer)
  *1
  
  
• Doublevoter 1.5 times (Second game was not JUST a doublevoter)
  *1
  
  
• Bodyguard 1.5 times (Second game was not JUST a Bodyguard)
  *1
  
  
• Missile Silo 1 time (Note: could classify as either VT or Dayvig, but I am excluding it from those)
  
• Mason 1 time
  
• Inventor (of Rolecops) 1 time
  
• Neighbor .5 times (Not JUST a Neighbor)
  *2
  
  
• Hated .5 times (was not JUST hated)
  *1
  
  
• JOAT .5 times (was not JUST JOAT)
  *1
  
  
• Doctor .5 times (was not JUST Doctor)
  *1
  
  
• Backup .5 times (was not JUST Backup)
  *1
  
  
• Dayvig .5 times (was not JUST Dayvig)
  *1
  
  
• Rolecop .5 times (was not JUST Rolecop)
  *2
  
  
• Loved-maker/Lovederizer .5 times (was not JUST Loved-maker/Lovederizer)
  *2

• Goon 2 times
  
• Encryptor 1 time
  
• Godfather 1 time
  
• 1x Death Immune 1 time

Yes, that's actually a much smaller list than you'd think, but games from mastin2 don't count (yet alone, Mastin); games on alts (such as Usami) don't count, which presumably also rules out all-alt games (meaning I can't be Roxas's, House Dayne's, or Sayori's roles), and games on hydras don't count (which rules out basically over half of my games because most of my games are played on hydras especially minis as it turns out).

*1 = all of these were the same role; *2 = all of these were the same role, from a different game, btw.

As far as breadcrumbs, I'll actually give you three.

Spoiler: Incredibly Contrived, Convoluted Breadcrumb

So, my First Encounter with Markiplier was this video:

I quickly progressed to seeing him obsess over it with such moments as when he beat 4/20 mode...but I particularly loved seeing:

Now I bring this up, because this actually reminds me of some Newer content.
Specifically,

As for what this is a breadcrumb of...you'll neeeeeeeever find me.

For what it's worth, the second role hint (aka, my "incredibly generic doesn't-really-narrow-it-down hint) is that the game I am breadcrumbing has at least some bitter feelings from me involved.
The third and final hint?

I am quite aware that mutant said we shouldn't breadcrumb.

I am on record as saying that this role actually

should

be breadcrumbed. (I'm not sure if I have explained the theory behind why this role should be breadcrumbed, but I know for a 100% fact, on MULTIPLE occasions, I can and have stated this role absolutely should be breadcrumbed.) When I roleclaim, I can go into the theory as to why. (Or if I die before claiming, then I'll do the theory talk in the dead PT.)

NOW FOR THE NEXT PART.

[mastina]

VOTE: Ms Marangal
Let’s lynch obvscum this time

too many to list, they're in my wiki though
VOTE: mara

Town.

Obv scum before I even post?

Ouch, talk about a hit to my ego.

Also, I am against it. It won't serve town any purpose and it makes it easier for scum to figure out which of their old roles would make a good fake claim.

Can tell you what I'm not! I'm not the Pokemon that chkflip gave me with all the cool JoaT powers

Finally, VOTE: Srceenplay, I'll get you this time

VOTE: marangal
I got my favorite role.

Town?

I have never rolled town PR. I think signing up for this game was an antitown move.

I hardclaim VT.

VOTE: Espeonage

Scum.

[mastina]

NO IM NOT MAFIA

Sure, you're Awoo instead.

[mastina]

There's no way you're getting a townread off the first post in the game, especially an RVS vote.

Have we really not played together before?
You would not be making this post if we had ever played together, but I could have SWORN we've played together; I've seen you around a whole fuckload, yet this is something you absolutely should know about me if you have literally any experience with me.

I will also say I'm more than a little worried that mastina's opening looks an awful lot like something she could have planned to do if she got a scum role PM when she /inned for this game, with a specific role that she had planned to fakeclaim in mind.

I don't plan fakeclaims before I receive my role PM (I mean I

do

plan OPENERS before I receive my role PM but I don't plan CLAIMS before I do; planned claims comes AFTER), I don't fakeclaim as scum, and this is NOT a role I would fakeclaim.

Guarantee you.

[mastina]

Are you confusing me with someone else? I haven't been on Mafiascum between Feb 2017 and May 2018.

I've been on mafiascum for much longer than that.

I was there when you were first around in 2015, and I've been around since you've been back; I could have sworn you'd encountered me at some point.

[mastina]

Someone please kick this game into gear i'm bored

Sure.
VOTE: implosion.

How's that?

[mastina]

and this is NOT a role I would fakeclaim.

How open you are to giving clues about your role makes me uncomfortable.

It makes sense when you know what role I have and know my philosophy for this role. I have a rather specific agenda to achieve, and this gives me the best path towards it.

Game is not progressing. Going to switch to my strongest scumread now.
VOTE: mastina

The only progress that will give you is showing why I'm town.

Someone please kick this game into gear i'm bored

Sure.
VOTE: implosion.
How's that?

Not good. You did it an hour after I fell asleep.

So I actually was scumreading implosion (thus the vote on him), but this actually reverses my read; this is not the type of response I'd expect from him if he were scum. It's just too natural, smooth, relaxed. He's at ease, calm, has his wits about him. It's not too serious; it's fairly lighthearted. In fact he's probably one of my strongest townreads at this point.

Back to here.
VOTE: Awoo.

[mastina]

Bnlp/mastina/???

Mara, you'd be quite right to call me out on buddying a scumbuddy, the problem is if you think that we can fake the interactions we've had you're absolutely insane especially given BulletNLynchproof is calling for my lynch. (Something I'd absolutely not approve of.)

I think I like her.

I think you're wrong to have liked her.

Believe it or not I actually am quite familiar with Awoo and I can tell you with 80% confidence she's scum here.

[mastina]

BulletNLynchproof
implosion
Pine
Wisdom

Errantparabola
Ms Marangal
mutantdevle

Srceenplay
Espeonage
Kokichi Oma

Myloninja13

Awoo

About this. Errant may be one higher, but I'm not sure.

[mastina]

Actually.

BulletNLynchproof
implosion
Pine
Wisdom

Errantparabola
Ms Marangal
mutantdevle

Srceenplay
Espeonage

Myloninja13
Kokichi Oma

Awoo

Much better.

[mastina]

I think you're wrong to have liked her. Believe it or not I actually am quite familiar with Awoo and I can tell you with 80% confidence she's scum here.

Color me intrigued. On what grounds?

On the grounds that I have personally

read

most of Awoo's games (about half, the entirety of; the other half, a few key points of), and I am that exact percentage sure that this is how Awoo enters the game as scum.

Awoo is not mislynch bait; Awoo is just scum.

[mastina]

implosion: agree with mastina that this guy is the highest town. However, experience suggests that he has a wide range of scum ability, from transparent to very solid.

This would be my experience as well--he's not outside of his scumrange altogether, but what he has given feels quite solidly not what I would even remotely expect to be his approach if he were actually scum.

Pine: I wonder if mastina is seeing the same thing that I'm seeing here, to put Pine so high off of just a couple posts -- I'd expect him to have big scum shoes to fill, and perhaps he'd be a little more involved here.

Not quite, actually. You're on the right track, in that it has to do with what Pine's doing versus what he's not doing, but Pine as scum does have some obvious signs that here are absent; his approach this game is precisely what I'd expect from him as town.

hmm
Actually you can be town for now

More or less my thoughts. Every time I see Errant post, it makes me think town, though this is with the caveat that I don't really have a good baseline for what from him is scum.

I am also intrigued, because I feel you're the type to if you actually believed you had a meta read to just state that as first.

I am intrigued, because you have enough experience with me to know that I deliberately avoid giving immediate reasoning behind my initial reads to gather reactions, and only after people have reacted to my reads do I give them the explanations. (And even then, often skipping the reasoning a fair amount.)

Yeah Kokichi is coming off as scum here.

That's because he is.

[mastina]

Mylo gave me the same newbie vibes as Awoo did, but I'm more cautious of him.

I got the same vibes from them as well!

I got the impression they were both scum and had no idea what to do in this playerlist filled to the brim with big names widely known/respected players that all randed town!

[mastina]

VOTE: Mastina
I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I really feel like you're being dumb. (Especially since you're one of the few players in this playerlist to have a chance to know what role I possess off of my stance that this is a role which

should

be breadcrumbed. I breadcrumb ALL roles I have--even THIS one. Because no role, not even THIS one, should remain uncrumbed.)

[mastina]

VOTE: mutantdevele im watching you, pine.

See this?

This is scum, blatantly hopping onto a wagon initiated by town, most likely ON town.

The proof?

Awoo votes mutant, while pointing suspicion onto Pine...the player who singlehandedly initiated the wagon in the first place.

[mastina]

Is mutant different as town? I dont have experience there

I have enough to say this is, with around 60-75% certainty, mutant as town. mutant as scum sticks out like a sore thumb; mutant as town in my experience with him is pretty much what I'm seeing this game. This comes with the caveat that I've seen him in like a total of four or so games so my experience with him is limited, but I still think what I am seeing is far, FAR more likely to be town than not.

Mara should be able to back me up to some extent; she saw what mutant as scum was like in the worst game ever run rather intimately (being exposed to his inner process of workings as his partner), and it was nothing like what he's like in this game.

[mastina]

Idk why you're so deeply interested in discussing your role after you've already breadcrumbed it. Like, spouting bullshit softclaims to try to throw off scum is not good town play in this game.

It actually is good townplay, so I'll continue doing it as much as I want.

[mastina]

I think with mastina talking about her role so much, I think it’s best to leave sorting her to another Day.

VOTE: Mastina
I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I really feel like you're being dumb. (Especially since you're one of the few players in this playerlist to have a chance to know what role I possess off of my stance that this is a role which

should

be breadcrumbed. I breadcrumb ALL roles I have--even THIS one. Because no role, not even THIS one, should remain uncrumbed.)

The only role that popped into my head was unlisted by you and I don't think our last game finished by the start of this so it wouldn't count. That leaves me a bit confused, but I guess I could leave you until tomorrow.

I know I have explained my stance on this role at least once on mastina, but actually, the main time I've explained my stance on this role is on mastin2. Most notably, in at least one (if not two) games from a specific time. (One game, 2014; the other, 2013. I know I 'crumbed this role in at least ONE of them, but I don't know which one; it could be both, or one, or the other, but it was there and I KNOW I explained it.)

Still though.

I'll leave this as an open challenge.

If you think you know what my role is, you can give me the Correct Answer to this:

Simple callsign

Something replaces D.

Mastina what do you think of Pine?

BulletNLynchproof
implosion
Pine
Wisdom

Pine: I wonder if mastina is seeing the same thing that I'm seeing here, to put Pine so high off of just a couple posts -- I'd expect him to have big scum shoes to fill, and perhaps he'd be a little more involved here.

Not quite, actually. You're on the right track, in that it has to do with what Pine's doing versus what he's not doing, but Pine as scum does have some obvious signs that here are absent; his approach this game is precisely what I'd expect from him as town.

This is a little difficult to unpack further, but I can try if you'd like.

I also think this is a little strong for not actually having experience with him

*ahem*

I have personally

read

most of Awoo's games

(about half, the entirety of; the other half, a few key points of), and I am that exact percentage sure that this is how Awoo enters the game as scum.

I have plenty of Awoo experience.

I can go into detail about this read when I get home from dance, but this is Awoo's scum meta, through and through.

[mastina]

Also, am I the only one who found this post a bit of a disappointment to what it was introduced as?

Nope!

I think this is very wrong.

And I think you are very wrong to think it is very wrong.

also
VOTE: mylo
i should be sheeped

Acceptable vote and if I move off of Awoo it would indeed be to move onto Myloninja (since both are scum), but my scumread on Awoo is greater and I like the wagon there more, so. Not moving unless I have to.

mastina:

[/color] Very good logic against me, strong townread. I swear I'm not being scummy on purpose just to get reads, this is not sarcasm. But after this post you will swiftly realize I am town and collapse the wagon now

Considering your post here is strangely reminiscent of my experience with you when you were scum, sorry, read remains.

Annoyingly though I fully expect the wagon to collapse because

others

will buy it even though by all rights they shouldn't.

[mastina]

Have you looked at BNL yet?

Yes, and he's my strongest townread so fuck no I'm never wagoning him and the wagon there is a steaming pile of shit. (But more on that below.)

I am interested in

thoughts

on this matter from the masses.

My thoughts are that I am second-guessing a towncred on a player who could be (*cringe* why am I using this terminology) deepwolfing that isn't hard-townreading BulletNLynchproof right now.

gawd koki is a good investigative target

/approval.

And I think you are very wrong to think it is very wrong.

What's your percentage of certainty here?

Well it

was

80%, but the more I read, the stronger my certainty becomes; it now sits at more like 90%.

mastina not caring about Awoo's post is interesting.

That'd be a poor choice of words, though admittedly I'm struggling to find better ones. I'd say it's not that wasn't caring about Awoo's post, so much as it is that I didn't care for Awoo's post. Does that make sense? The two aren't synonymous and I think you can get the difference.

And WRT Awoo, BNL seems like an awfully weird choice for him to make if he is scum looking for a counterwagon. If he's scum it was just a move to gain towncred and I don't think that's the move that scum looking for towncred is especially likely to make.

As I see it, there are two possible worlds. They're mutually exclusive with one another I fully admit, but in neither of them is Awoo town. The first world, Awoo genuinely sees BulletNLynchproof as mislynchable. Given that he is the current lead wagon for a lynch (more on that later), that's anything BUT a weird choice.

The second world, Awoo simply wasn't aiming for a counterwagon. Awoo as scum isn't going to just try and form a counterwagon to try and escape the noose; Awoo as scum actually tries to

avoid

forming a blatantly scumdriven counterwagon, and does exactly what you describe: attempt to garner towncred in a believable fashion, so that the pressure to lynch Awoo fades on its own.

play really intellectual

Guess what I think your play here is dead on the money as being? It is exactly what you say: really intellectual. That was the first fucking red flag I picked up from the onset in your posting; the fact that you were ridiculously stilted.

Woah, why is BNL being wagoned? He's like my only strong townread here lol.

And this is scum whiteknighting BulletNLynchproof because they know that BNL is a mislynch in the making--yet while stating BNL is their strongest townread, they do absolutely nothing to dissuade people from voting BulletNLynchproof and give no thoughts on the players wagoning him. Is the wagon scumdriven (yes), and if so, who? (I'll give my thoughts in a bit.) Is the wagon towndriven (no), and if so, why are the scum off of the mislynch? (They aren't.)

There's nothing there other than the empty statement of what the read is, and that is

precisely

what scum do when whiteknighting.

I think of these, espe, implosion and Errant are my top picks

The only way for this list to contain so much as one scum is if Myloninja were town. (But they aren't.) And if Myloninja were town, it would contain precisely that amount, one scum no more but also no less.

One guess as to the name I'd most exclude from there.

My new townset-that-I-feel-pretty-okay-about: {EP,

Awoo

, mutantdevle, Maragnal}.
The people that I would like to call town right now but give me significant trepidation in doing so are {Wisdom,

kokichi

, Pine, mastina}.
This leaves a new, 100% improved scumset of {BNL,

mylo

, the worst, espeonage}.
There are very clearly 3 scum in that set.

Yes, most likely one from each!

Okay, AWOL just typed out a one hour response to my post. I don't think scum would do that.

Repeat after me.
Effort != Alignment.
Effort != Alignment.

EFFORT DOES NOT EQUAL ALIGNMENT.

Vote Count 1.07

[4] BulletNLynchproof ~ Espeonage, Awoo, implosion, Kokichi Oma
[2] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine
[1] Errantparabola ~ Ms Marangal
[1] mastina ~ Myloninja13
[1] Myloninja13 ~ Wisdom
[4] Not Voting ~ BulletNLynchproof, Errantparabola, mutantdevle, the worst

I would literally lynch the entirety of the BulletNLynchproof wagon--and for good reason, too. Three of the names on it are literally in my bottom four fucking reads. My strongest scumread (Awoo), my tertiary scumread (Kokichi Oma), and my peripheral scumread (Espeonage). And yes, I would lynch implosion here too just because of how absolutely shitty his vote there is.

If Myloninja is scum, then there are two scum on the wagon there 100% guaranteed; if Myloninja is town (doubtful, but hey, I'm never 100% on my scumteams D1 so you never know), then there are three scum on that wagon, 100% guaranteed. It is a literal picture perfect definition of a scumdriven wagon and quite frankly it might be literally the worst wagon I've ever seen in my entire mafiascum career. (I mean, little hard to tell, been in literally hundreds of games each of which have dozens to hundreds of wagons so I've seen a lot of shitty-ass wagons, but. I legit can't think of a way to top this.)

[mastina]

did you find Awoo's reaction to BNL's read shift ridiculously overblown as well?
I know this is getting meta af but her calling BNL's change of read out on feeling like.. fake and mechanically orchestrated, felt fake and mechanically orchestrated....

I wouldn't call it ridiculously overblown, but I would call it mechanically orchestrated.

[mastina]

Also,

Vote Count 1.07

[4] BulletNLynchproof ~ Espeonage, Awoo, implosion, Kokichi Oma
[1] mastina ~ Myloninja13

Myloninja's strongest townread, by Mylo's statement, is the lead fucking wagon.
What is Myloninja doing about it?

I think I'm going to sheep BUL here lol
VOTE: mastina

Voting a player BulletNLynchproof isn't voting anymore, and as a vanity vote no less; Myloninja is not even trying to form a counterwagon to the wagon on BulletNLynchproof.

You can also see these

stunning

contributions to the game:

Yo I'm back.

Yo Mylo
Some people are voting you. What do you have to say about that?

Not really much, I get their reasoning? I haven't really done many towny things yet lol.

I feel like I should mention something related to the Encore idea, but I'm worried I'll get scumread for it. Should I say it?

I have literally never been a town PR in any completed game here.

After I have dinner, I can answer that!

Oh. So do you want me to link my two scum games though?

Hi sorry I can get to this today!

Hi guys, I heard my name being mentioned!

To his credit, you can maybe call these content, but only if being extra-generous:

Your vote. You were my strongest town read, so I sheeped your vote.

That's fair, but it's better than my personal alternative of no vote.

Woah, why is BNL being wagoned? He's like my only strong townread here lol.

I don't know lol.

I don't think its BNL or you though, if that helps!

He's my obligatory "Strong player" townread.

Without really intending to, I generally find an experienced player who is townish, and just sheep them until I have any idea on what to do. This game, it's BNL!

The only content from him I'd call unambiguously as content would be these:

I think you're town, just by consistent strong playing. I don't know why Mutant was scumread for his PR-no-crumbing idea, and the rest of his play looks similar to his town game I've seen.

I want to townread Awoo, but I can't justify why I do? I think I'm having a rare gut read with that, but considering my history of gut reads I'd likely not trust this one lol. Don't really trust implosion, but I have bias there because I've lost every town game where I was lynched day 1. I'm just confused about Kokichi lol.

Not really any other reads here, sorry. Would you like me to link my two scum games here?

(As a reminder, Awoo is scum and Kokichi Oma is probably scum as well.)

Simple questioning, being calm but still playing and also not immediately scum reading me helped.

implosion said "Designated lynch" and I was out lol. Even if that was a joke, I just ahhh at that phrase.

Wisdom hadn't really caught my attention yet then.

And I kinda just didn't like mutants posting.

He has had 20 posts to give content and contribute to the game, yet half the time he is prod dodging and the other half of the time he is giving as little content as humanly possible while still producing content.

[mastina]

mastina, @358, aren't you the one who just stressed that effort != alignment?

Effort doesn't equal alignment.

Lack of effort can and does.

It's NOT a two-way street; you know why we had the expression "Lynch All Lurkers" and when people stopped willing to do that lurking became an acceptable (albeit boring) strategy for scum to employ?

Because lurking is an effective, massively pro-scum strategy to utilize

.
Bad explanation, but the point holds true regardless.

Scum can, will, and DO lurk because lurking both active and otherwise is an effective tactic. Laying low and letting the big town names fight each other and rip themselves to shreds is the de facto method of winning as scum. It works because by lurking, you avoid drawing attention to yourself; by avoiding drawing attention to yourself, you are less likely to be wagoned/lynched, investigated, or vig-killed, leading you to have more free-reign to do as you please.

Is lurking inherently indicative of scum? No, not in of itself. But when paired with other factors, it's a damn strong tell, and those other factors are present.

[mastina]

Btw before I forget:

MOD: I will be V/LA from Friday to Sunday, with

absolutely zero internet access

.

mastina is townier here than I've ever seen her before

Wrong. I was MILES more town in Earthbound.

Well it was 80%, but the more I read, the stronger my certainty becomes; it now sits at more like 90%.

If, in the long run, i end up helping you out with the awoo wagon, and you're wrong at 90% certainty, i'm going to vig you -- are we in agreement?

I'd deserve nothing less! (Would also save me the time/effort of reevaluating and give me a convenient scapegoat if town loses, too. )

Hi guys! This is a cool set-up!

Hi guy! This is blatantly coasting!

[mastina]

she's not remotely easy to read

Actually, I am

incredibly

easy to read. I ooze town when town. I just utilize various psychological manipulations to keep people from lynching me when scum. So I don't really look town as scum, so much as it is I don't look like your preferred lynch as scum.

there are some people on this list who can probably do an ok job of it (Pine jumps to mind, allowing they're not literally scum together).

No, Pine has just as long a track record of misreading me as I do him, if not longer. The player you want to trust in reading me is mastina; she never gets the read wrong.

Mastina's posts also don't sit well with me.

She went into hiding for a while

Yeah you don't know me so I'll give you a pass on this, but.

Never make this accusation again.

It has NO place in a mafia game.

there were no change in her reads.

...But there were?

I also find it funny how she calls Mylo out for white knighting me and not driving the wagon off me when I see that she's doing the same thing.

Except I

have

been trying to drive the wagon off of you?

Like.

Calling the wagon the literal worst wagon I've ever seen in my entire mafia career is a little hard to top, in terms of trying to drive the wagon elsewhere.

Pine is currently being unreadable.

He's really not. Here, lemme show you:

Pine: I wonder if mastina is seeing the same thing that I'm seeing here, to put Pine so high off of just a couple posts -- I'd expect him to have big scum shoes to fill, and perhaps he'd be a little more involved here.

Not quite, actually. You're on the right track, in that it has to do with what Pine's doing versus what he's not doing, but Pine as scum does have some obvious signs that here are absent; his approach this game is precisely what I'd expect from him as town.

The things Pine have been doing generally show him to be town, but there's an utter lack of presence in signs that it's deliberate. No forced townness, no hidden scum beneath the town, no visible manipulation, no clear faking, just a level of naturalness which is pure.

But while a player can be both pure and natural without it being town (such things I'd dub as "indicative of person" rather than alignment), I've known Pine long enough to say that I'm PRETTY sure the natural pureness I see from him isn't his base persona alone, so much as his base state as town; there is a tint of alignment in the natural pureness.

[mastina]

Wrong. I was MILES more town in Earthbound.

on d2 sure, call it a d1 comparison

No, on D2 I was actually LESS town in Earthbound; I traded townness for read accuracy. I was at my strongest levels of town on D1.

mastina, opinion on Espe? Bad lynch, or just inferior lynch?

Frankly I could hop on right now if it weren't a hammer. It's not a bad wagon by any metric.

If Myloninja is scum, then he is the only scum on the wagon; all five other voters are town.
If Myloninja is town, even better; it is almost certainly an all-town wagon. (There is one name that

could

be scum, but they are less likely.)

If the base chance was 0%, Espeonage has a 40% overall chance of being scum: not confscum levels, but far, far, far, FAR higher than most players. (Not the highest, but still high.)

It's a towndriven wagon, on a player who has a significant chance to flip scum.

Absolutely yes I'd join it in a heartbeat.

It's not the wagon with the highest chance of flipping scum. I'd expect Espeonage to flip town 60% of the time in fact, making it not the best wagon we could get. But it's CERTAINLY not a bad wagon by any means; quite the opposite, it couldn't get any better.

[mastina]

I'm a vt, much to my chagrin. Especially with how many cool powers I have had in the past. I either hinted or claimed this earlier bc I was pretty pissed about it at the start of the day. Idr

Hey, Awoo.
I suppose this is also open to Myloninja, as well.
But.

I have a challenge for you.

You want to prove yourself town, right?

Well then if you're town you can pick up on what the issue with this claim is, something specific to VTs which is why I am naming you two in particular.

[mastina]

BNL have you played with or witnessed the almighty mastina in action before now?

I'm not almighty, I'm just situationally powerful. There are times where I am really, really,

really

good; there are times where I'm not

terrible

but am one of the worse town players in the game. I rate myself overall as mediocre-good: the times where I do good, I REALLY do good; the times I do mediocre, I REALLY go mediocre.

Usually I can tell which is which, though I do have some games where I swear I sucked and yet I was objectively awesome and games where I swore I was on the right track only to be shown utterly wrong. If I had to guess, this game would be somewhere between the two; I wouldn't think I have

all

the scum on D1, but I think I

have

scum on D1 and that most or all of my stronger townreads are town--so, not perfect, but good enough to still be good.

Iirc your first page reads were Awoo Mylo KO scum. Your latest reads stayed the same. Correct me if I'm wrong about this.

Those scumreads haven't changed, sure, but other reads have.

[mastina]

I'm definitely down to chainlynch Awoo, then mastina, see them both flip town, and lose the game

I'd like to remind you that you specified vigging me.

Vigging me after being wrong on Awoo is acceptable (because death during night phase saves me the effort of needing to...well, do anything)--but lynching me after being wrong on Awoo is only

conditionally

acceptable.
The condition there is that you give me the time to reread, give new thoughts, new updated reads, more in-depth reasoning, and not ignore me when I flip town and actually put stock into said effort and reads.

But otherwise, deal remains unchanged; the offer still remains. Would gladly die if Awoo would flip town.

But Awoo won't, so it's all a moot point anyway.

[mastina]

It means that scum are unlikely to night kill us?

Nope! Noooooooot even remotely close.

[mastina]

kokichi, mylo, implosion
wild d1 scumteam guess

Well, 2/3 aint bad. (Esp is the third, obv.)

And yes, this is an up-to-date statement.

[mastina]

because awoo is town

This is true!

mastina, do you still think Awoo is scum?

Absolutely not, no, but I'm finding it hard to describe why not without giving it away. (It's not because of my role, it's not because of Awoo's role obv, it's because of someone else's. I wish I could give details, but doing so would out them. But suffice to say: yes, person, I got the message loud and clear; Awoo is town.)

[mastina]

Oh.
Forgot to do this:
VOTE: Myloninja.
But would also vote Kokichi Oma in a heartbeat.

[mastina]

Awoo
BulletNLynchproof
mutantdevle
Pine
Errantparabola
Ms Marangal
the worst
implosion
Kokichi Oma
Myloninja13

Here, have my readslist without spaces. (I have good reason for not giving spaces; I'm trying to hide one or two things which spaces in my reads would give away.)

[mastina]

This is already a

lot

of town power claimed between full tracker, 2-shot weak doc, BNL's role and vengeful modified babysitter.

Don't forget I also know there's an investigative with a hard-innocent on Awoo. But, RE: planning:

I'm the role from NSG's game. I thought wisdom was scum. Cause he said I was scum but didn't push me like he always does when he scumreads me

Okay, so like.

I am 95% sure this is bullshit.

And I want to lynch it.

I really, really,

reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally

want to lynch it.

But dammit.

In the off 5% chance it's legit.

I can't

.

Because if the claim WERE true...then it'd just be too good to pass up on; we'd be killing three birds with one stone.

To explain,

So basically we get 2 lynches if we vig kokichi tonight.

You're actually underestimating the utility here.

It's not

two

lynches.

It's

three

.

Today, we should lynch the player most widely scumread aside from Kokichi Oma. (My preference would be on Myloninja.) Lynch #1.
Kokichi Oma gets vigged by BulletNLynchproof. Lynch #2.
If Kokichi Oma's role is real, he targets the second-most-widely scumread player (aside from himself, of course). That player, if you assume Kokichi's roleclaim is real, also dies. Producing

three

lynches. (My preference would be on implosion.)

Oh and then there's the investigative on top of that, who simply targets a name outside of Kokichi Oma/second-most-widely-scumread-player/the worst/BulletNLynchproof (all of which would be a waste).

If we lynch scum today and Kokichi Oma is scum, we win overnight.
If we lynch scum today, Kokichi Oma is town, and targets scum, we win overnight.
If we lynch town today and Kokichi Oma is scum, we're still positioned well tomorrow. Our top three lynch candidates are all dead, with one scum remaining.
If we lynch town today and Kokichi Oma is town, targeting scum, we still are positioned well tomorrow. Our top three lynch candidates are all dead, with one scum remaining.

Even if we lynch town today, Kokichi Oma is town, and targets town, we are STILL positioned well tomorrow; our top three mislynches just got removed in one fell swoop, making it MUCH easier to POE the game and ten times harder for scum to hide.

Sadly, it does mean that even though there's a 95% chance Kokichi Oma's a scumfuck we let him live, but. He's dead tonight anyway, soooooo.

[mastina]

Err. Small correction.

If we lynch town today and Kokichi Oma is scum, we're still positioned well tomorrow. Our top three lynch candidates are all dead, with one scum remaining.

In this instance, we only get two lynch candidates dead, but the point still remains; we end up with one scum remaining and are positioned incredibly well. It might not be a

foolproof

plan, but it's guaranteed to give us a MASSIVE edge.

[mastina]

OK lets be realistic though worst case scenario: scum have a roleblocker and block BNL tonight and we lynch kokichi tmr, still assuming he is town and putting our top kill on the wagon.

Which still results in our top three scumreads dead.

Oh, and said roleblocker?

If said roleblocker is on BulletNLynchproof, they are

not

on the worst, and

not

on the investigative out there that inno'd you.

That, assuming they even have a roleblocker*; if they don't, they be fucked. (And, by the way, given this game mechanic? Not just anyone can actually be a roleblocker; only certain specific players could be a MAFIA Roleblocker.)

Scum, no matter what, face a lose-lose scenario, so.

*Mind you, the actual pool would be roleblocker/doctor/jailkeeper/rolestopper/redirector/busdriver/alien, to be a little more technically precise, but. SAME PRINCIPLE APPLIES; the

point

is, there's only a small number of players who could have those roles even as

possible

, and most of said roles are not that common to be mafia except for the mafia roleblocker, so for the sake of brevity you can basically just go "mafia roleblocker" to convey the same meaning as "mafia roleblocker, doctor, jailkeeper, rolestopper, redirector, busdriver, or alien".

[mastina]

(When I have more time, I may actually compile the list of players who could have those roles. I think it's a fairly small pool. As in, I think that pretty much the only players who could have it are implosion, Marangal, and Pine, small, but I'll try to verify that when I get the chance. Maybe tonight, but probably not; I have a lot of obligations. Can definitely do it tomorrow, though!)

[mastina]

(Oh, Errant too. But I'm pretty sure mutant, Mylo, and myself have no scumgames with those roles.)

[mastina]

we should probably just like lynch the scum

If you want to lynch scum, lynch implosion because implosion is, 100%, Kokichi Oma's partner.

Do you want me to show you their isos side by side and how they treat one another, or do you want to go look it up yourself?

Because, uh.

Yeah.

[mastina]

And we should probably just massclaim, frankly.

Yeah, no. That would be massively, MASSIVELY anti-town at this point given that I know who the fourth investigative claim is and I would prefer it if as few options as possible were outed for it.

who's scum meant to be on this wagon?? pine or ep I guess???

OR, the implosion wagon is free of scum because it's fucking ON scum.

Implosion is prob town, dont lynch him

Also I'm shooting who I want if you shoot me BNL

Case 'n' point for who Kokichi's scumbuddy is.

This is literally just the icing on the cake choke full of partner tells between the two, spanning the whole game.

or implo lol it's surprising kokichi hasn't made the survivalistic vote

Precisely.

Why do you suppose, exactly, that implosion with his life in danger didn't vote Kokichi?
Why do you suppose, exactly, that Kokichi with his life in danger didn't vote implosion?
It's because they are hoping for a mislynch today.

VOTE: implosion.

[mastina]

UNVOTE: implosion
Inclined to believe his claim for now.

I'm not.

implosion's claimed role can't be proven and makes perfect sense as a mod-provided fakeclaim as a result. He also has an excuse to showing up as a guilty to fairly probable investigatives. Neapolitan? "I'm a PR!" Gunsmith? "I have a gun!" Vanilla Cop? "I'm not vanilla!" And yet, in spite of being able to claim as much, he has no ability to actually prove his role because the game doesn't actually have a vig proper.

It's a glorified named townie claim, one which gives an excuse to be seen as guilty to investigatives but one which can never be proven.

In other words. The perfect safeclaim.

I believe it is the claim the mod provided to him.
I believe it is the role he breadcrumbed.
But there is such a thing as fakeclaiming as scum, as breadcrumbing a fakeclaim as scum, and that is precisely what implosion did.

Bonus points: that crumb is so incredibly subtle that if implosion were to so choose, he could just fakeclaim VT from any game of his choice should he have later chosen to not go through with the claim for whatever reason. (It happens. Just because you plan on claiming one role, doesn't mean you're committed to claiming that role; you can always change what your planned claim is later if need be, even if the change is simply a change from PR to VT.)

[mastina]

Still would like to shoot Koki to confirm myself as town, but I do see concern with potential scum roleblocker.

Let's not assume the mafia have some mystical magical role until we actually have proof the mafia have some mystical magical role.

So, let's not assume the vig on Kokichi Oma will fail, until we have proof that it has failed.

If the vig on Kokichi Oma fails, that in of itself generates useful setup information for us to have; it incredibly narrows down the list of players who could be scum.

If the vig on Kokichi Oma doesn't fail, we're not only left with a dead scum (which, if we lynch scum today, ends the game in a town win), but also with the information that scum couldn't stop it or for whatever reason chose not to stop it. Which is, in of itself, useful information to have available.

In other words.

Lynch scum today, vig Kokichi Oma the scum tonight.

And my belief is that the final scum is implosion.

[mastina]

Why would I, as scum with Kokichi, care at all if he's getting lynched today? He's dead tonight anyway.

Because then you have to deal with BulletNLynchproof as conftown, the worst as conftown whose track conftowns players, and an unknown third investigative somewhere in the midst that could guilty you or produce a hard inno on a prime mislynch candidate, e.g. Myloninja.

Whereas by letting Kokichi Oma live, you're allowing him to live into the night.

Okay. So from your point of view with knowledge I don't have, it's anti-town. Great. Why is this a point in favor of calling me scum?

Because scum want to know the roles of players so that they can salvage what is otherwise an unwinnable game for them. Denying them that opportunity is pro-town; trying to give it to them is pro-scum. You advocating for a massclaim is advocating for giving scum a road map to salvation.

Which is exactly what you'd do as scum when given a bad hand.

I don't think scum have been given fakeclaims:

Other slight modifications to Role PMs may include: linking to the game the role PM was originally from, removal of fakeclaims, references to mechanics specific to an inapplicable game theme, and edits for clarification.

Doesn't mention any addition of fakeclaims. And I don't see why they'd be given fakeclaims in a game where they can literally pick and choose one from their entire history of games.

It doesn't matter if you were given a safeclaim by the mod or not; the point remains that your claim remains the perfect fakeclaim because it is not a role which can be proven and yet it is a role which gives an excuse for certain investigatives receiving guilties on you.

[mastina]

I'd also argue Espeonage and my play should be pretty clearly not scum-scum. In both directions.

Yeah no. Your Espeonage interactions and his interactions with you were actually

the cause of my townread on you tanking

.

mastina can you throw me a few things you find partner indicative between implo/koki? I'm currently not really sold but if you can throw some comments at me with your usual level of conviction I'll have another squiz.

Spoiler: Ask, and ye shall receive

That said,
VOTE: Kokichi Oma

This RVSesque vote on a scumbuddy is practically a signature move of implosion as scum. Early distance, which can be turned into a bus if need be but also removed and reversed into a townread as is convenient.

Okay.
VOTE: Myloninja

The only thing this could be in response to is:

Kokichi Oma

Awoo

speaking of bad reads

Alternatively, 73, because implosion has 71 and the only other poster in there was Marangal and her content didn't interact with implosion at all.

Kokichi slightly town at this point, Awoo could be scum, not a massive fan of his flip on Kokichi; it looks sort of staged for the purpose of generating content. 82 is not a good reason to townread Kokichi and it's the only post between Awoo calling Kokichi scum and town.

This is the opposite of the read he should have held on Kokichi Oma, and he even goes on to chainsaw defend Kokichi.

I have very mixed thoughts on Kokichi. My only meta on him is a game where I was modding where he was scum in which I think I had a pretty likely chance of misreading him as town had I been in the game, and this game seems to have no real difference from it. Yet I am also somewhat townreading him independent of that.

This is the definition of a scum fencesit on a scumbuddy.

Maybe kokichi should be in the scumpile, idk.

implosion's read on Kokichi Oma seems to be directly reflected in the thread sentiment regarding Kokichi Oma.

When people were focusing on Kokichi Oma, he had him as scum.
Once out of the focus, that was reversed into town.
When people had Kokichi Oma in their peripherals, his read was more in the middle.
And come D2 when people were expressing heavy suspicion on Kokichi even prior to the guilty, he once more has Kokichi as suspect.

Care to share with the class? Or waiting for something?

Nice guilty soft

These are basically literally identical "oh fuck we're caught" responses.

Great. So we can lynch kokichi and he can venge someone if town? He can announce the venge target in advance and we can get a claim and stipulate they be on the wagon.

This is already a

lot

of town power claimed between full tracker, 2-shot weak doc, BNL's role and vengeful modified babysitter.

Note that this was prior to BNL claiming the vig on Kokichi Oma but was after Kokichi's claim--and yet, implosion didn't vote Kokichi Oma.

Why didn't he back up his words with a vote?

I generally agree that Koki is probably fakeclaiming but to not lynch him today anwyay.

And by here, he's showing an outright refusal to vote there.

Also I'm shooting who I want if you shoot me BNL

I told Kokichi Oma to target implosion--obviously, he wouldn't want implosion implemented so he doesn't just agree to shoot thread consensus here.

Implosion is prob town, dont lynch him

This is because if implosion is lynched, scum lose tonight due to the vig shot.

Of particular note: pay attention to a combined iso of both of them.
Pay attention to how often they directly interact with one another. (They don't.) implosion

talks about

Kokichi Oma. But he doesn't

talk to

Kokichi Oma. (In contrast, look how implosion talks to town players. He talks to literally everyone. Me, Awoo, BNL, and so on and so forth.) It's mutual, too. Kokichi Oma doesn't really talk with implosion.
The closest you get is,

I'm sure you would, scum

man this has just got to be satire of the game state, right?

Me being sarcastic? Never.

...Which is an empty, fluff of an interaction; neither were serious in their posting there even remotely.

They do eventually get a little here.

What's your read on BNL?

Why does this even matter?

Honestly, because I think BNL is obvtown to an extent too and it's surprising to me how many people are willing to vote that way and that Awoo is sufficiently farther obvtown than he is that he's willing to vote there and force a claim. To me the wagon on BNL just looks blatantly anti-town. I don't know if it was necessarily scum driven, though.

...But this is over discussing a mislynch, and this is a textbook scum-scum interaction when dealing with talk about a mislynch. This is literally how you talk to scum as scum, especially when lacking daytalk.

Kokichi Oma's playing his scum meta interactions with implosion to a T; implosion is playing his scum meta interactions with Kokichi Oma to a T. It's a little bit harder to demonstrate the Kokichi side, so I admit this is mostly implosion, but that in of itself should tell you something here.

[mastina]

...what? lynching Kokichi today is the way to STOP bnl from getting a chance to become conftown.

BulletNLynchproof is conftown regardless of lynching Kokichi Oma today or not. Nobody's going to lynch him in the game, ever, regardless of whether his role is proven or not, because he claimed a

provable role

. Something scum would not be inclined to do. LEAST of all, in a game featuring this particular mechanic, the Encore nature of it leading to players being easily able to verify aspects of the claim.

(Note that Kokichi Oma's role is only proven on his death, so that doesn't count as claiming a provable role. BNL claimed a role which is provable with BNL living to tell about it the day after.)

I still don't understand why there's this mysterious third investigative. Or why I would know they exist as scum and would therefore be playing around them.

You know they exist because I, a town player, am telling you they exist. And if I am telling you that they exist, that means that they exist because I as a town player have no reason to lie about their existence. And your lack of understanding about this third investigative is

part of what makes it problematic

.

You DON'T understand how I could know there's an investigative unclaimed with an Awoo innocent yet have it not be me, but that is precisely the case. (I'd tell you how I know, but that'd give away the precise player for those astute and/or thorough enough.)

[mastina]

The one game where I did vote a scumbuddy (floral mafia) I committed to a scumread on her early off of the vote.

Yes, this would be what I am referring to.

BNL has claimed a provable role. The situation that allows his role to be proven is by not lynching Kokichi today. It not being proven

means that it is not proven.

Okay, then question.

Would you ever lynch a player who claimed a provable role D1 as scum in this game, featuring this mechanic?

I sure as fuck wouldn't.

Thus, he's conftown regardless of whether the shot is made or not.

Mastina, that crumb is pretty fantastical.

And?

What makes spectacular breadcrumbing inherently indicative of alignment?

Are you saying implosion isn't capable of it as scum?

I may be misremembering it but I do believe he himself has said otherwise.

I won't argue it's not a good breadcrumb, because simply put, it is.
I will argue that breadcrumbing is not in of itself proof of the role.
Roles, in this game, may indicate alignment given the game mechanic so I can't exactly use the exact quote of my saying, but the

sentiment

behind it, I most certainly can:
Roleclaim != alignment.

If it did, we'd be clearing Kokichi Oma.

Which is, quite self-evidently, preposterous.

Do you think its that plausible that scum implo chooses which of town prs is his fake claim and crumbs it in the way he just did?

It doesn't matter to me if it's a mod-provided safeclaim or he fakeclaimed it on his own. The points I raise about why it is a convenient claim hold the same; the points I raise about it being something convenient and flexible hold all the same.

Furthermore I'm pretty sure hes had cooler town roles other than backup vig so why choose that one

Well aside from the "mod safeclaim" angle (in which case why the fuck not use the claim the mod provided to him), if you assume he fakeclaimed it on his own, then the answer is simple:

He's playing to a scum wincon. He

can't

claim a "cooler" town role.
He can, under no circumstances, claim a role which is provable. (Because he can't actually prove it. See also, why BNL is conftown.)
He can, probably, not claim VT and get away with it. (After all, Espeonage tried, and failed, in this endeavor.)
He can, under no circumstances, claim a role strong enough where given the town's other claimed roles, his role sticks out.
He can, under no circumstances, allow himself to be caught by town PRs.

All of these, his claim is convenient for. His claimed role is a guilty result to half the probable investigatives in the game, making him a pseudo-miller; why the fuck would that be a bad claim? His claimed role can't be proven; why the fuck is that a bad claim?

and you telling me now that a third investigative exists
does not mean that i knew it existed when i was advocating massclaim

Oh really?

mastina, do you still think Awoo is scum?

Absolutely not, no, but I'm finding it hard to describe why not without giving it away. (It's not because of my role, it's not because of Awoo's role obv, it's because of someone else's. I wish I could give details, but doing so would out them. But suffice to say: yes, person, I got the message loud and clear; Awoo is town.)

Here, have my readslist without spaces. (I have good reason for not giving spaces; I'm trying to hide one or two things which spaces in my reads would give away.)

This is already a

lot

of town power claimed between full tracker, 2-shot weak doc, BNL's role and vengeful modified babysitter.

Don't forget I also know there's an investigative with a hard-innocent on Awoo.

Oh and then there's the investigative on top of that, who simply targets a name outside of Kokichi Oma/second-most-widely-scumread-player/the worst/BulletNLynchproof (all of which would be a waste).

If said roleblocker is on BulletNLynchproof, they are

not

on the worst, and

not

on the investigative out there that inno'd you.

And we should probably just massclaim, frankly.

So the suggestion to massclaim was made

before

I stated there was another investigative, you say?

Do tell.

Or are you going to claim you never read any of those in spite of literally over half of them directly involving you?

You know they exist because I, a town player, am telling you they exist.

You also told me awoo was scum

If anyone had any doubts about implosion, they need only look at this point right here because this is bad on a horrendous level. I forget what the term is. Maybe misrep, maybe strawman, but what it is is that he's comparing a completely different situation to this one as if it were equal.

I said that Awoo was scum on D1, based off of my read there and my understanding of Awoo's meta.

I am saying today that there is an investigative role with a hard innocent on Awoo.

Comparing the two is comparing apples to oranges. Actually, comparing apples and oranges would have more in common with one another than comparing the two situations because the two situations have literally nothing in common.

Stating Awoo was scum was a read.
Stating there is a fucking power role with an innocent on Awoo is not a read.

[mastina]

Fuck.
Awoo isn't conftown.
I can't tell you the exact question I asked the mod without giving away both the identity and exact role of the "third investigative", but I can do this:

PLAYER WHO TARGETED AWOO:

Ask what'd happen if you targeted Espeonage.
The answer you get won't be what you thought it'd be, which VASTLY changes optimal usage of your role.

[mastina]

(Once home from work, I'll both read and review given that new info, but I actually think even without Awoo as conftown and the investigative not having a clearing result that the investigative and Awoo are both town anyway.)

[mastina]

Wait a minute.

Doesn't this disqualify me as scum, by your logic? My role is under some circumstances provable, and as far as theoretical scum-me knows, those circumstances (the existence of a vig) might exist.

Well keep in mind my running theory is that it's a mod-provided safeclaim, just that it's also a claim which I can see you making without it being mod-provided. But while it is a claim I think can be made without being mod-provided, I still think it to be a mod-given safeclaim.

But even if not, you claimed after every other roleclaim in the game. Aside from the investigative-which-doesn't-actually-have-the-innocent-on-Awoo-they-thought-they-did, literally everyone in the game who is going to claim a PR, has claimed a PR. So by then, you would have known that your breadcrumbed role was safe to claim.

Keep in mind that just because you

lay

a breadcrumb, doesn't mean you need to

use

the breadcrumb, least of all one as subtle as the one you made. If a vig claim came up which would ruin your planned claim, all you'd need to to fix it is just claim VT.

so uh, I just made a random discovery. Namely, that mastina has been a mafia night 2 vigilante before.

Sure have!

...In a game which literally started four fucking days before this game. Check the timestamps: Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:52 am, start of that game; Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:18 pm, start of this game. So, did I say four? Make that three fucking days difference. That game just ended very, very quickly in spite of being a contemporary to this game.

The list of possible mafia roles I could be, I gave you:

• Goon 2 times
  
• Encryptor 1 time
  
• Godfather 1 time
  
• 1x Death Immune 1 time

Anything not listed there wasn't completed at the time of this game, or is ineligible for this game.

What this is, then, is a blatant attempt to shade me. Because I told you what I could be, and that wasn't on the list, for very fucking good reason; that game was so barely ongoing that it had almost not even started when this game did.

[mastina]

Also Mastina, why would scum!implosion prematurely claim?

What's premature about claiming at L-1 when there are players off the wagon that'd happily lynch you?

[mastina]

I strongly agree with the worst's point of we should lynch kokichi so they can't use their night ability. Like, there's already a lot of town power claimed, and we've had a goon flip. That must mean the other mafia members must be pretty powerful. Scum are going to want to use whatever ability kokichi has.

Hate to put a dampener on this, mutant, but.

What

night ability?

the worst tracked Kokichi Oma to Wisdom.

Not to Wisdom and some other player.

Kokichi Oma only visited the nightkill.
That means the two possibilities are that Kokichi Oma has no ability he can use and nightkilled Wisdom, or has an ability to use and didn't nightkill Wisdom. As in, is a mafiate without an active PR, or is town.

Those are the only two possibilities.

This is why the idea of lynching Kokichi Oma is so tremendously stupid.

Kokichi Oma is confirmed to not be able to both action and kill. If he had that power, the worst would have seen it.
implosion very likely is a strong mafia power role who CAN both action and kill. Letting him live is playing into the mafia's hands.

[mastina]

In fact that's important enough for large emphasis.

Kokichi Oma is confirmed to not be able to both action and kill. If he had that power, the worst would have seen it.
implosion very likely is a strong mafia power role who CAN both action and kill. Letting him live is playing into the mafia's hands.

What I mean by this, is.

We fucking KNOW Kokichi Oma visited Wisdom...but we also fucking KNOW

he didn't visit anyone else

.
If Kokichi Oma were a scum power role (say, roleblocker, redirector, you get the idea, that sort of role)...

the worst would have seen him visit TWO names

.

Since the worst only saw him visit one name, Wisdom, it can then be inferred he does not have that sort of a scum power role.

What does that tell you, then?

That the OTHER SCUM PLAYER holds THAT POWER ROLE.

I'm not sure I can explain this concept, will try one more time.

[mastina]

Okay, so.
Let me run it through you.

Basically.
This game has, confirmed, a Weak Doctor.
This game has, confirmed, a tracker.
This game has, basically-confirmed, a Cop-or-Vig.
This game has, basically-confirmed, the existence of a fourth hidden role. (Admittedly though the player isn't hiding their role nearly as well as I'd prefer but OH WELL.)

Everyone agrees that the scum must have a strong counter to this power.

Do you follow that so far?

Okay.

So the scum have a strong counter to this power, yes.

Well then that's going to be a strong power role of some sort.

Except there's a problem with lynching Kokichi Oma.

Kokichi Oma only visited Wisdom

.

Because Kokichi Oma only visited Wisdom,

we have mod confirmation that Kokichi Oma is not a strong scum power role of some sort

.
If Kokichi Oma were a strong scum power role of some sort, he'd be seen visiting two names, or alternatively, a player that didn't die with the second mafiate having performed the kill.

Okay, so if we have mod confirmation that Kokichi Oma is not a strong scum power role of some sort...
...And we have a working theory that scum HAVE a strong power role of some sort...
...Then it stands to reason.

You don't fucking lynch the player you fucking know isn't that strong scum power role.

Kokichi Oma is DEAD. BulletNLynchproof is going to kill him.
Kokichi Oma is confirmed to not be the strong scum power role of some sort.
So what we should be fucking doing.

Is hunting the strong scum power role.

Which is why the lynch today should be implosion.
NOT Kokichi Oma.
implosion can fuck the town over; Kokichi Oma, can't.

[mastina]

how concerned does kokichi seem about the gamestate rn?

Why should he be concerned when him getting lynched is doing what the scum fucking want us to do?

He, the ironically-by-YOU-proven-not-strong-mafia-PR, dies.
Leaving the strong-PR-we-know-exists to have free reign to fuck the town with both the nightkill and its night action.
In addition to not allowing BulletNLynchproof to be conftown beyond all measure of conftown.

Lynching Kokichi Oma is letting the town shoot itself in the foot--almost quite literally!

So why would he be concerned?

Make him sweat by lynching his scumbuddy, on the other hand......

[mastina]

So... what's the problem with lynching Koki and leaving less scum, even if they have a power?

Because two things:
One, then that power fucks the town over, because it was left alive instead of lynching Kokichi Oma who is provably NOT that power.
And two...Kokichi Oma is already being vigged. He is already dead. And not only that, but his death confirms BulletNLynchproof as town, or forces scum to kill BulletNLynchproof, but no matter what, he doesn't live.

What I mean by this is.

Kokichi Oma is already guaranteed to die this game.
Lynching Kokichi Oma today when he is proven to not be the strong scum power role we are looking for is a mistake.

That,

not even going into

the chance, however remote, that Kokichi Oma is town.

No, I don't think he is; yes, I think he's scum.

But the reasons for not lynching a town-Kokichi are self-evident.
Aside from the fact that it's fucking lynching town rather than scum.
There's also that his role could be utilized to get a triple-lynch in the form of his target, himself, and today's lynch.

If Kokichi Oma is town, he is the literal worst fucking lynch today possible.
If Kokichi Oma is scum, he is provably a far less optimal lynch than his scumbuddy because we already fucking know he's not a strong power role because if he were a strong mafia power role he'd have not performed the nightkill, AND he is also still likely dead due to BNL.

So regardless of his alignment.

He's a shitty-ass lynch.

[mastina]

Mafia may not perform a factional nightkill in addition to any other active abilities. This will be standardized

Mastina in the rules it is confirmed that scum cannot both action and kill in the same night.

So?

Doesn't change the problem.

Kokichi Oma is confirmed to have visited Wisdom.
If that was the mafia nightkill, it means he didn't use a role.
If he didn't use a role, it means either he doesn't have one, OR HIS SCUMBUDDY'S ROLE IS JUST THAT MUCH MORE POWERFUL.

The last scum then has access to that role which could do more damage than you realize, depending on what it is. Said player may be able to falsely clear themselves utilizing this role and forfeiting the nightkill, or falsely frame town without using the nightkill.

I'm fairly certain that Kokichi Oma's claimed mafia roles he's held is an accurate claim, that he has in fact never been an active role. We know he's not the scum IC due to the non-bastard nature of the game, leaving godfather (WHY THE FUCK WOULD A GODFATHER COMMIT THE NIGHTKILL), encryptor, or goon.

Kokichi Oma's confirmed to be worthless.

What that means, then.

Is that his scumbuddy holds a role of tremendous strength.

If his scumbuddy holds a role of tremendous strength.

Then they are capable of fucking the town over without being caught doing so, nightkill be damned.

[mastina]

What do you think about the point that having one scum left makes them much more vulnerable to Tracker?

I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

Because he thought he'd be less likely to be tracked than his scumbuddy.

Oh really then?

Do tell.

Because Kokichi Oma was one of the most widely scumread players on D1.

Why the fuck would he be

less

likely to be tracked, then?

surely, this MUST be massclaim day.

Absolutely not, no.

Two scum dead, all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive, scum having no idea who the fourth PR is (and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result), massclaiming is absolutely not the play here.

not doing anything til Awoo explains dat vote

Pretty sure he thinks that scum forgot to submit an action, and Mara fits that bill.

There are only two options for the night as far as I'm concerned.
One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.
Or two, the scum attempted a kill on a player that could not be nightkilled. In which case, the scum utterly failed to correctly identify the fourth PR.

There's no other option.
I don't believe a moderator would allow for the town to gain an unfair advantage due to the last scum needing to be (but not actually being) replaced in the night.

[mastina]

Oh.
That was meant to have this:
VOTE: implosion.

[mastina]

I think the results of the night speak for themselves as an "I fucking told you so" moment. (Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

I don't understand how you can see no one dying at night and call it an "I told you so" moment.

That's not what I was referring to with the results of the night.

You cut out the important part literally

right fucking below it

.

(Mostly referring to the fact we're on evens, we have no definitive investigative results, and no players who are objectively absolutely cleared, even if some are subjectively soft-cleared and close to hard-cleared.)

One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.

One, scum could have a role which using it last night fucks us over later. For instance, a fairly common enough scum role involves a delayed action of some sort. Plenty of roles fit the mold, from poisoner to bookie.

Two, even if not.

the worst does not have a track result. And in fact, his claimed action given Screenplay's role history is something that is,

objectively speaking

, suspicious. (Fuck objectivity, butstill.)
BulletNLynchproof is not conftown.
We don't have any useful information at hand.

No player is hard-cleared objectively. While I have subjectively hard-cleared some players, including the unclaimed PR, we don't have any hard leads as to the final scum from roles alone.

The exact outcome I warned you of yesterday.

So damn fucking straight I go "I told you so".

Because I fucking told you so that this would happen.

You can't know how scum were thinking about night actions with that much certainty.

Not so.
I have a knack for knowing what scum think. Even when all my reads are wrong, it's my one saving grace. I get to predict their actions.
The exact identity of scum players I don't always get.
Their mindset, I do.

Particularly when you know of at least one dead scum and have a solid scumspect.

I don't even remember him being "one of the most widely scumread players" either; he had literally 0 votes in the last 11 votecounts of d1. I wouldn't call that especially widely scumread, and certainly not widely scumread to assume with 100% certainty that he'd avoid making the kill as scum.

The real disingenuous thing here is implying that votes = scumread, and that just because he had none he wasn't.

That's not how it works.

Stated stances = scumreads, and Kokichi Oma was frankly one of THE most widely scumread players on D1.

I'm going for girlfriend time, so can't prove this now, but will do so later.

[mastina]

1) This is the biggest reason, and isn't purely mechanical, it's more pragmatic: with all of the setup info on the table for everyone to look at, we can collectively decide whether or not we think all PR claims are truthful based on balance, and narrow the lynchpool.

Yeah the thing is there's only one PR left unclaimed; we can instead not massclaim and agree we lynch any PR claim save for the one person who has a clear record demonstrating precisely what they are.
(I've known it since D1 since they accidentally gave it away VERY early on. To prove I know it--this player with the unclaimed PR had that PR in a game modded by a current-or-former skittle. Which I realize doesn't narrow it down that much; I can tell you type of skittle OR former/current if need be.)

We can avoid mislynches that might have occurred based on unclaimed information.

This will not happen. The player with the last role has been very overt with their breadcrumbs and upon their death it will be impossible to miss their night actions.

On that note, said player has a chance of dieing during the night, soooooooooooooooo.

3) We can audit everyone's completed games to ensure that claims aren't similar to scum roles they've had; in most cases here, confirmable role = confirmable alignment.

I already did this for the player in question. If they have any scumgame with this role or a role similar, I missed it.

Thus, this is worthless.

4) I've said this before, but I'll reiterate, because it's critically important to understand: we are ahead. Really, really ahead. In games, when you are ahead, you want to reduce the potential variance in the game so as to avoid as many unlikely loss situations as possible.

The thing about massclaim--and this is the biggest flaw with your argument:

Massclaim works on a principle which is almost identical to risk-reward.
It is gain, versus loss.

The time to massclaim is the time where the most is gained and the least is lost.

Right now, if we massclaimed, information which the scum desperately need would be given to them--meaning we lose a lot.
Yet that information gives the town nothing of actual use--meaning we gain nothing.

This is all you need in order to know massclaim is not happening today.

Or for a long time at that.

How do you know that they don't know who the fourth PR is?

Because if they did, then we would have had a nightkill last night which resulted in said PR being dead. The last PR is one which they can in fact kill. Quite easily, given how poorly they're hidden.

Instead, the LACK of nightkill serves as potential proof that they

don't

know. EVEN IF THEY KNOW THE PR'S IDENTITY, they don't know the PR's power.

And what's the downside of them knowing, given that they already know plenty of good nightkill choices?

Because giving a roadmap to the scum of who to kill is exactly the fucking thing we do if we're looking to turn our advantage into a loss?

[mastina]

Forgot to mention 5) we can force scum to 100% commit to a claim now, and prevent a possible power play later on. This ties hand-in-hand with the idea of reducing variance.

The one and only player who holds a PR this game not already claimed has absolutely zero wiggle room on it. They have locked this claim in since D1, and there is no way to back out of it.

They should thus remain hidden as long as humanly possible.

To clarify, it's suspicious because he's been a scum 1-shot tracker? The track yesterday no longer role-confirms him if he's scum (if he's scum, he could be any scum role srceen has had) since Kokichi flipped scum.

Objectively, yes, because of being a scum 1x tracker, the worst not claiming a night action tonight is, objectively speaking, suspect. While it's true that not being role-confirmed is the case, it would almost certainly if a scum fakeclaim be a mod-provided one. That having been said, while this is a fine debate to have in theory.

Fuck bringing it forward as anything other than a theoretical debate. the worst is town, period.

And isn't not having enough useful information on hand all the more reason to massclaim, to get as much useful information as possible?

Massclaiming won't give any useful information beyond the facts which are self-evident.

So yes. There's no useful unclaimed information, other than the information about the identity of the last PR.

even if Kokichi was widely scumread, or even

one of the most

widely scumread, or even *the most* widely scumread, that doesn't automatically mean that scum would have avoided making him make the kill if they had a choice (that is, if the other scum has no action).

Oh? Do tell then. Explain why scum would send a large scumspect to do the nightkill. We know it happened. So since it happened, why did it happen? What are the most likely causes for it to happen?

(Does anyone else think that if implosion is scum fakeclaiming backup vigilante, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to advocate for a massclaim when it may be revealed there IS no other vigilante besides maybe BNL being the police, and there have never been 2 nightkills? The result of that is he = ded)

No it's the opposite.

By having no vigilante in the setup, implosion sets himself up to never be lynched.

[mastina]

Mastina
Who should I vote for?

implosion.

[mastina]

Oh? Do tell then. Explain why scum would send a large scumspect to do the nightkill. We know it happened. So since it happened, why did it happen? What are the most likely causes for it to happen?

because it's possible that both scum were large scumspects...

So who would you say that points to as being scum, then?

it could be that scum misjudged how big of general suspects they were

Having been Kokichi Oma's scum partner and seen him be scum on numerous occasions.

I can tell you Kokichi Oma does NOT do this.
He knows precisely how he is perceived and precisely how much of an issue that perception will be.

So if that did happen--okay, so who's the players that misjudged?

it could be because they thought the other scum was well-positioned enough to win the game alone if need be

Again, who does that implicate?

Different scumteams think differently, and claiming that you can accurately predict how a team of people that you don't even know the complete identity of is going to think about such low-level decision making, decision making that different people and even different groups of the same people do completely differently, with any degree of accuracy is not something I see any reason to put stock in.

Oh but I can. All it takes is putting myself in the scum's shoes. I look at the information I know, predict the information scum have on top of the information I know, and weave the two together to run probability analysis.

There are never certainties in mafia games. But it's ridiculously easy to find probabilities. In the rare instances I've had a PR able to interact with the nightkill, I've been reasonably good at accurately using it, save for the times where I couldn't do so thanks to the kill being me (which I predicted but had to assume was a wrong prediction even though it wasn't).

This is one of the main uses of situational awareness as town. Knowing what the situation of the town is, in general. If I know what the situation of the town is, then I know how to predict the outcome of what will happen with a reasonably high degree of accuracy. (For instance, having a VERY good read, in general, for when I will die in a game. Since it didn't happen last night--the time it was most optimal from a strategic play point of view for me to have died--in this game it's not gonna be until like N5 at the earliest.)

based on night info i think NLing is not a terrible strat.

ABSOLUTELY NOT, no.

There is a RIDICULOUSLY high chance we'll have two deaths in a night before mylo, thus, placing us back on odds if we lynch every day.

If we no-lynch now, we will have to fucking no lynch AGAIN when--not if, WHEN--that second death happens in order to get onto odds.

In other words.

It wastes two entire day phases.

I'd rather eat a lynch than let us no-lynch.

Still have no idea who implosion is actually supposed to be backing up but I'm assuming he's town

And there's your problem.

[mastina]

VOTE: Pine
If nothing else, I like the players on the wagon.

While true, in that the players on the wagon are all town, that doesn't inherently mean they're voting scum.

Pine's a shitty lynch. He's an ideal investigative-target, sure, yeah. But he's a shitty lynch.

implosion's where you want to be.

[mastina]

I've no qualms about hammering other than just waiting for Gamma to get into the game and a claim.

Case and point for implosion being scum, right here.

[mastina]

But he's a shitty lynch.

Is this for any reason other than you thinking I'm scum?

Yeah, and I'll try to articulate why at a time when my brain's working better. (It kinda just shut off.)

Basically it has to do with a bunch of things. What he's done, what he's NOT done, and overall feeling.

btw about that espeonage wagon, I feel scum might be why it stalled

By this, do you mean, scum on it, or scum off it?

WAGON WHEELS

VOTE: Gamma

Trading one shit wagon (Pine) for another (Gamma = Momrangal) doesn't do us any favors.

[mastina]

mastina i can't get my head around the way you play this game

>literally anything happens
"what the fuck guys thats a shit move" - mastina

So we go from 1 wagon on a POE scum to another wagon on a POE scum after a good reaction from the first? what is the problem here? you're clearly not selling implosion hard enough because I am unconvinced.

Please convnice?

But he's a shitty lynch.

Is this for any reason other than you thinking I'm scum?

Yeah, and I'll try to articulate why at a time when my brain's working better. (It kinda just shut off.)

Basically it has to do with a bunch of things. What he's done, what he's NOT done, and overall feeling.

That doesn't just describe Pine; that's just as valid for Momrangal and now Gamma in her place. In fact, it's actually more accurate for her; there's towntells for her that she triggered, but right now my mind is dead tired so I'm having trouble explaining the history there.

I'm the player with the most experience in this game with Mara (aside from maybe Wisdom? But Mara and Wisdom are to each other what Pine and I are to one another), so maybe it's only obvious to me, and I need to find the words to make it obvious for others, but I need to do that when my brain's working better.

But Mara was doing town things for her, and Gamma is doing loosely town things for him. (Admittedly it's harder to tell there but he still has tells.)

It's equally a shitty wagon as the Pine wagon, so it receives an equal treatment to it.

If you were to wagon basically almost any other player in the game outside of the PRs, you wouldn't hear me call it a shitty wagon.
But Pine and the Momrangal slot are shitty wagons.

So it's not "literally anything happens".
It's "literally you guys being as stupid as you can be, twice in a row, happening".

Pick a third, less-stupid wagon, and I won't call it shitty.

[mastina]

no, YOU pick a wagon, DAD

Sure!

Let's wagon implosion!

(

What?

You DID

ask

me to pick! Did you expect a different answer? )

[mastina]

Mastina I can understand a Mara townread, but not a Pine townread. Can you walk through that with me?

Well the reasoning is a bit old, but it still holds true:

Pine: I wonder if mastina is seeing the same thing that I'm seeing here, to put Pine so high off of just a couple posts -- I'd expect him to have big scum shoes to fill, and perhaps he'd be a little more involved here.

Not quite, actually. You're on the right track, in that it has to do with what Pine's doing versus what he's not doing, but Pine as scum does have some obvious signs that here are absent; his approach this game is precisely what I'd expect from him as town.

Basically.

Pine, as scum, can be thought of as having two basic methods; Pine, as town, can be thought of as having two corresponding methods.
Pine's precise methodology varies; it is game-specific, tailored to manipulate that particular playerlist, but his base pattern can still be fit into one of those two base molds.

Yet his townplay doesn't really change that much.

So in a sense.

You could say, it's easier to identify Pine as town than scum by pinning down him as doing one of the town patterns that doesn't change compared to one of the scum patterns that does change.

The two base molds as both alignments can be thought of as "active" versus "not active", but with the descriptors changed as to what, precisely, the activity/not activity means.

The active modes don't apply for this game, so what we're looking at is the inactive ones.

A town-Pine's inactivity is based, primarily, around laziness. He's lax, he's busy, he doesn't really care that much about things.

A scum-Pine's inactivity is based, primarily, around strategic lurking. He's still busy, but he also cares about things. He's not really that relaxed. His approach in this case can be thought of as "boring, but practical". He might see it as not that fun to do, but he doesn't care, because it's safe to do because it WORKS.

When Pine is scum and not really giving much, he is still strategically not giving much. His posting has purpose. He may skirt by, he may give as little as necessary to not be replaced, but he does so with intent, usually to allow for town-town fighting. Pine, even in his "lazy scum" state, does not take this laziness lightly. When scum are in trouble, he's not going to let them stay in trouble.

Maybe he works behind the scenes to accomplish this, but he usually makes an effort to not allow scum to die. (Keep in mind, he hates bussing. Distancing is fine all he wants, but actually bussing with serious intent to lynch? NNNNNNOPE.)

The Pine of this game doesn't really match that.

The Pine of this game is more carefree. He's visibly not that invested. He's visibly not that concerned. Keep in mind, two scum are dead, and both were game-long suspects. So this Pine would, as scum, need to be stepping his game up. He'd not need to go all tryhard. He'd not need to be a top townread. But he'd need to be doing different things than what he is doing.

The key to him winning as scum would be maintaining the minimal amount of effort to avoid being a top lynch candidate, but while he is giving some level of effort and it's fairly low, the content of that effort does nothing to truly dissuade his detractors, that are far too numerous to kill, and I am pretty much one of his only defenders and I'm not someone he can afford to let live the entire game.

Plus.

Overall scum modus operandi doesn't match his methodology.

This scumteam, with Pine, Kokichi Oma, and Espeonage is 100% led by Pine. Unambiguously, he's the leader of that scumteam if he were scum, so he calls the shots, he makes the kills, he's the one making the moves. Wisdom

is

a player Pine would kill...but he is not likely to kill Wisdom N1. (Wisdom's more of a N2, N3 kill for Pine.) And the dayplay of the known scum doesn't look like it had Pine's guidance. Pine as scum micromanages the content of his scumbuddies; Kokichi Oma's play and Espeonage's play and both of their claims don't look like they have the mark of Pine on them.

Is it entirely impossible for him to be scum, then?
No, of course not.

But is it incredibly improbable for him to be the last scum?
I'd say so, yeah.

[mastina]

honestly I dont buy your townread on mara

You would if I did what I just did for Pine on her.

mylo and mutant both have no claims related to them, correct?

Mylo claimed VT.
mutant hasn't claimed and frankly shouldn't.

Gamma hasn't; I don't think Pine has; you haven't as far as I can recall; I haven't explicitly done so though I've given it away indirectly; one of these five players is an unclaimed but heavily softed PR that I know the identity of, and every claim (which will be VT claims from all but one) will narrow down the exact identity of the final PR.

So we shouldn't be doing that.

[mastina]

My old townread on mara was largely based on a single post. I felt really good about that post but don't feel good about the slot anymore because of attrition in the number of viable scum candidates and deterioration over time.

I buy pieces of mastina's pine case but not others. I don't think it'd necessarily be possible to see him micromanaging the other scum. I don't think he'd necessarily have motivation to make the kinds of plays she's describing that would turn momentum of wagons as scum.

In particular:

Maybe he works behind the scenes to accomplish this, but he usually makes an effort to not allow scum to die. (Keep in mind, he hates bussing. Distancing is fine all he wants, but actually bussing with serious intent to lynch? NNNNNNOPE.)

This describes his play toward both flipped scum. He never touched Espeonage. Kokichi, he distanced, then voted on d2, then unvoted to vote me when there was momentum on me. He wasn't trying very

hard

but he was pretty much consistently asking for lynches on town when scum lynches were viable (on awoo when espe was under threat, on me when koki was under threat).

I'd like to see some specific meta (specifically a low-effort town game and a low-effort scum game) that this Pine read is coming from, because my personal direct experience with Pine scum is not really relevant here.

So basically what you're saying here is that you hold suspicion of both the major lynch candidates that are not yourself?

[mastina]

Okay, you've had your fun, and in doing so, ruined our chance at a perfect game.
Are you interested in actually WINNING, now?
If so, then…
VOTE: implosion.

[mastina]

I'm pretty sure this qualifies as a stalled gamestate since everyone here is waiting for the same thing (implosion to be lynched).
Am I wrong?

[mastina]

Implosion's recent responses give me cold feet on him.

I don't see why.

VOTE: errantparabola

(And so on.)

VOTE: pine

(And so forth.)

See, BNL?

This

is what happens when you unvote an L-1 player when we were on the precipice of getting a fucking lynch.

The wagon on scum begins to fall apart, and then multiple wagons on players that are town begin to spring up in its place.

[mastina]

yes mastina

the fact that Awoo unvoted me and then immediately revoted me two minutes later
and the fact that devle, who was not voting me to begin with, and chose to vote a different person that is not me

this is proof that i am scum and that the wagon on me is a wagon on scum that is falling apart

The quotes I presented weren't indicative of everything and you damn fucking well know it and are pretending otherwise.

My point is there was momentum on you, L-1, with intent.
BNL unvoted.
Then all of these happened:

VOTE: ErrantParabola

VOTE: errantparabola

VOTE: implosion

VOTE: Pine

VOTE: pine

What are all of those?

Exactly what I said:

This

is what happens when you unvote an L-1 player when we were on the precipice of getting a fucking lynch.

The wagon on scum begins to fall apart, and then multiple wagons on players that are town begin to spring up in its place.

[mastina]

*The town win condition has been updated: shut mastina up by doing whatever she says today*

Normally, I don't approve of that.

But this game I might just allow it.

I would also like to ask Mastina, who would you think is scum if implosion flips town? Or are you so confident on implosion being scum that you won’t bother scumhunting outside of implosion unless and until he flips town?

I want to answer the latter because it's the answer which gets me an implosion lynch, and by not answering it, I am giving you all an out where you can inevitably just mislynch someone else instead.

But sadly.

I can't do that; I have to be honest.

If implosion flipped town, hands down my largest suspect would be Errant. There is a lot of content from him that I am writing off as being scummy-town, specifically because I know there's only one scum left and it by FAR fits implosion better. Everything just fits with implosion as scum, SO much better than Errant.

But it's possible, to the point where he'd be my first suspect if implosion were to flip town.

The reason I didn't want to say this, though.

Is that it's

possible

Errant is scum for those things.
It is

probable

that he's just town.

In contrast, it is

possible

implosion is town and I'm wrong on him.
It's

probable

that he's just scum.

And I want to lynch the probable scum rather than the possible scum.

[mastina]

Lol what. They murdered a misslynch target? Did they think Pine was an investigative because he said he was softening an inno? That's too funny.

I mean I can't see any other reason for scum to make that kill, which means the scum is blind as fuck as to what the setup in this game is because if scum knew what the remaining role was, they'd know just how stupendously obvious it was that it wasn't Pine.

And, yeah.

This should end the game, if I understand your meaning here correctly:

VOTE: Errantparabola.

[mastina]

mastina is Awoo town?

Awoo is town by the same virtue everyone except for you is: the remaining role has cleared every player except for you.

Thus. Either you're scum, or the player with that roleclaim has some explaining to do.

[mastina]

So.

mutant.
You've got some 'splainin' to do.

Because everyone alive is someone you've claimed a hide behind.

[mastina]

Is he a weak hider? And how do you know this lol

Because mutant claimed from his very first post he was a PR, stating the game was role madness.

As I knew that to not be the case, I fact-checked him. He had a small enough pool of games that I needed to make sure he was actually a town power role since I was going to lynch him on the spot otherwise.

I don't remember

all

of the roles he's been, but when he breadcrumbed hiding behind Awoo at the end of D1, and then breadcrumbed that Awoo was innocent, I picked up on it instantly. To whit,

Also, since this is

probably

a PR heavy game, I'd like to request that

no one crumb their role

, scum will spot it and they WILL kill you for it. Anyone who feels like their role is useless should feel free to drop a fake crumb though if they want to bite a night kill . But of course, don't be so obvious about it that it's

too

obvious.

I disagree with the second paragraph. I agree this is likely to be role madness, but this means crumbs are not as useful for scum as everyone is a role so PR wise it doesn't matter much who they kill.

Yeah, but if you crumb that you're a cop then, unless it's encrypted in such a stupid way, scum are going to kill you. As a cop, you shouldn't be subjecting yourself to a more likely death.

I agree with the mutantdevle vote. Other than the mentioned awkward 138, many of his comments are related to addressing points at him. He seems more interested in self defense than scum hunting.

"Maybe mutant has a reason to not be scum hunting but instead of asking him that reason I'm just going to opportunistically vote for him and paint him as scum for it."

And ofc I'm going to seem more interested in self-defence than scum hunting when I've done literally no scum hunting at all...

Just to clarify, I'm not refusing to scum hunt. I'm just saying you shouldn't expect it from me. Assuming your definition of scum hunting is asking questions and analysing posts, I do that as and when I see fit and now when pressured to do so.

There are many ways I can contribute to the game without doing the typical boring mainstream stuff. First of all, this is a role madness game, obviously, I have my role to help with. Next is my vote. I will sheep where I see strong cases and pressure as I desire. My reads are not and probably never will be strong, so I've kinda given up on them. You're better rolling a dice on who to lynch than lynch my scum reads. Additionally, whilst this won't be so relevant in the current game state, my main townie skill is mechanical solving and setup spec. It's scum hunting in a different way to reads. I doubt that's going to be too useful given the nature of this game, but not being able to rely on this won't make my traditional scum hunting any stronger.

I'm tired of forcing myself to come up with reads in games. Truth be told, I still null read most people in days 2, 3, etc. I don't like forcing myself to be like "hmm well this is a town lean because they look kinda town but I'm not confident". If I'm not confident in a read, I don't really have it IMO. I'm just along for the ride. I'm cooperative and obedient so my playstyle doesn't harm town in any way. I'm better off this way because I'm the kind of person that gets your strong town PRs lynched if you force me to case people and push my poorly formed reads from poor scum hunting.

(^This is where I first began to suspect it, because this was a red flag to me of mutant being an investigative: "I don't need to scumhunt, because my role will do the scumhunting for me".)

Just doing this before I go to sleep - awoo.

Yes.

And here you have the last post mutant made before nightstart, followed by...

Imo, Awoo is as good as town now.

...One of the first posts in the next day.

Reads wise, Awoo is town. That's all I can say with confidence at the moment. I like and dislike various people but don't wish to elaborate on that. I do like the tension between individuals though. Nice pushes, nice responses, it's healthy I hope.

With reinforcement here.

because awoo is town

This is true!

mastina, do you still think Awoo is scum?

Absolutely not, no, but I'm finding it hard to describe why not without giving it away. (It's not because of my role, it's not because of Awoo's role obv, it's because of someone else's. I wish I could give details, but doing so would out them. But suffice to say: yes, person, I got the message loud and clear; Awoo is town.)

I signal to mutant that I figured his breadcrumbs out here.

Awoo
BulletNLynchproof
mutantdevle
Pine
Errantparabola
Ms Marangal
the worst
implosion
Kokichi Oma
Myloninja13

Here, have my readslist without spaces. (I have good reason for not giving spaces; I'm trying to hide one or two things which spaces in my reads would give away.)

This readslist, when you give spaces, would have been:
Awoo
BulletNLynchproof
mutantdevle

Pine
Errantparabola
Ms Marangal
the worst

implosion
Kokichi Oma
Myloninja13

Or thereabouts. But the point is, it was without spaces to hide the fact that mutant was town via claim to me.

This is already a

lot

of town power claimed between full tracker, 2-shot weak doc, BNL's role and vengeful modified babysitter.

Don't forget I also know there's an investigative with a hard-innocent on Awoo.

Oh and then there's the investigative on top of that, who simply targets a name outside of Kokichi Oma/second-most-widely-scumread-player/the worst/BulletNLynchproof (all of which would be a waste).

Oh, and said roleblocker?

If said roleblocker is on BulletNLynchproof, they are

not

on the investigative out there that inno'd you.

^Small confession, there was a technical inaccuracy in here, but it was deliberate as to hide WHICH investigative role mutant was. I knew that a roleblocker couldn't work on mutant because the hider he was came from a game where the hide made him immune to all night actions, like a commute.

And we should probably just massclaim, frankly.

Yeah, no. That would be massively, MASSIVELY anti-town at this point given that I know who the fourth investigative claim is and I would prefer it if as few options as possible were outed for it.

Why would I, as scum with Kokichi, care at all if he's getting lynched today? He's dead tonight anyway.

Because then you have to deal with BulletNLynchproof as conftown, the worst as conftown whose track conftowns players, and an unknown third investigative somewhere in the midst that could guilty you or produce a hard inno on a prime mislynch candidate, e.g. Myloninja.

Okay. So from your point of view with knowledge I don't have, it's anti-town. Great. Why is this a point in favor of calling me scum?

Because scum want to know the roles of players so that they can salvage what is otherwise an unwinnable game for them. Denying them that opportunity is pro-town; trying to give it to them is pro-scum. You advocating for a massclaim is advocating for giving scum a road map to salvation.

Which is exactly what you'd do as scum when given a bad hand.

I still don't understand why there's this mysterious third investigative. Or why I would know they exist as scum and would therefore be playing around them.

You know they exist because I, a town player, am telling you they exist. And if I am telling you that they exist, that means that they exist because I as a town player have no reason to lie about their existence. And your lack of understanding about this third investigative is

part of what makes it problematic

.

You DON'T understand how I could know there's an investigative unclaimed with an Awoo innocent yet have it not be me, but that is precisely the case. (I'd tell you how I know, but that'd give away the precise player for those astute and/or thorough enough.)

and you telling me now that a third investigative exists
does not mean that i knew it existed when i was advocating massclaim

Oh really?

mastina, do you still think Awoo is scum?

Absolutely not, no, but I'm finding it hard to describe why not without giving it away. (It's not because of my role, it's not because of Awoo's role obv, it's because of someone else's. I wish I could give details, but doing so would out them. But suffice to say: yes, person, I got the message loud and clear; Awoo is town.)

Here, have my readslist without spaces. (I have good reason for not giving spaces; I'm trying to hide one or two things which spaces in my reads would give away.)

This is already a

lot

of town power claimed between full tracker, 2-shot weak doc, BNL's role and vengeful modified babysitter.

Don't forget I also know there's an investigative with a hard-innocent on Awoo.

Oh and then there's the investigative on top of that, who simply targets a name outside of Kokichi Oma/second-most-widely-scumread-player/the worst/BulletNLynchproof (all of which would be a waste).

If said roleblocker is on BulletNLynchproof, they are

not

on the worst, and

not

on the investigative out there that inno'd you.

And we should probably just massclaim, frankly.

So the suggestion to massclaim was made

before

I stated there was another investigative, you say?

Do tell.

Or are you going to claim you never read any of those in spite of literally over half of them directly involving you?

You know they exist because I, a town player, am telling you they exist.

You also told me awoo was scum

If anyone had any doubts about implosion, they need only look at this point right here because this is bad on a horrendous level. I forget what the term is. Maybe misrep, maybe strawman, but what it is is that he's comparing a completely different situation to this one as if it were equal.

I said that Awoo was scum on D1, based off of my read there and my understanding of Awoo's meta.

I am saying today that there is an investigative role with a hard innocent on Awoo.

Comparing the two is comparing apples to oranges. Actually, comparing apples and oranges would have more in common with one another than comparing the two situations because the two situations have literally nothing in common.

Stating Awoo was scum was a read.
Stating there is a fucking power role with an innocent on Awoo is not a read.

Plenty on my end, but mutant furthered things on his end, too.

I want to stay hidden. Watching. Waiting. Ready to strike at any moment. And then. When you least to expect. BAM. The game is over. The town has won.

Fuck.
Awoo isn't conftown.
I can't tell you the exact question I asked the mod without giving away both the identity and exact role of the "third investigative", but I can do this:

PLAYER WHO TARGETED AWOO:

Ask what'd happen if you targeted Espeonage.
The answer you get won't be what you thought it'd be, which VASTLY changes optimal usage of your role.

This was after I decided to take another look at mutant's hider role PM from the game in question. Specifically,

Hide! - During the night you may target another player to hide behind them, making you immune to actions that target you. However, if the target you hide behind is killed, you will be killed as well. Furthermore, if you hide behind a werewolf (including the sleeper agent, if that player is not you) you will be slain instead. Your kill flavor will be Slained.

This role specified HIDING BEHIND

WEREWOLVES

.

This game featured MAFIA.

So I asked the mod: "This is a role mutantdevle held. If mutantdevle were to hold this role this game, would he die if he hid behind mafia, even though the original role specified werewolves?" KittyMo's response? "If that role were used, the player would not die."

HOWEVER.

• Each player receives the same Role PM
  (or a slightly modified version of one)
  that they have received in a past game on MafiaScum. This means that only Role PMs that were posted somewhere on the site (the game thread, PTs, quicktopics, etc.) will be used. Sample role PMs posted by the mod may be included if they appear to be identical to what the player received. Marathon Games, games replaced out of, or games that were not played on the account the player signed up under will also not be used. If a Role PM is only accessible by downloadable archive (due to the 2011 crash), it will not be used.
  
• Other slight modifications to Role PMs may include: linking to the game the role PM was originally from, removal of fakeclaims, references to mechanics specific to an inapplicable game theme, and edits for clarification.

This made it possible that KittyMo modified the role. Simply make this sort of modification,

Say, like this

Hide! - During the night you may target another player to hide behind them, making you immune to actions that target you. However, if the target you hide behind is killed, you will be killed as well. Furthermore, if you hide behind a mafia you will be slain instead. Your kill flavor will be Slained.

A one word modification to the role PM, and suddenly, mutantdevle is again an investigative.

This is what I was asking him. I was asking him to ask the mod if he would die when hiding behind Espeonage--aka, if he had the to-the-letter literal role from the original game unmodified (and thus, is a non-weak hider this game), or if the spirit behind the role meant he was a weak hider in this game.

Aside from the investigative-which-doesn't-actually-have-the-innocent-on-Awoo-they-thought-they-did, literally everyone in the game who is going to claim a PR, has claimed a PR. So by then, you would have known that your breadcrumbed role was safe to claim.

This game has, basically-confirmed, the existence of a fourth hidden role. (Admittedly though the player

isn't

hiding

their role nearly as well as I'd prefer

but OH WELL.)

Hard to get more explicit than that.

I think Mastina was wrong about not lynching kokichi. What she said blatantly ignores how 1 scum left neutralises the scum PRs regardless (if they want to perform the night kill) and I don't understand why she would miss that. I might have to go to her house and talk to her about it over a cup of tea and a biscuit >:)

Here mutant 'crumbed his N2 target of me.

surely, this MUST be massclaim day.

Absolutely not, no.

Two scum dead, all investigatives (minus Wisdom) alive, scum having no idea who the fourth PR is (and maybe even having shot someone immune to death as a result), massclaiming is absolutely not the play here.

not doing anything til Awoo explains dat vote

Pretty sure he thinks that scum forgot to submit an action, and Mara fits that bill.

There are only two options for the night as far as I'm concerned.
One, the scum used their role instead of the nightkill. In which case, town is likely in for a nasty surprise at some point.
Or two, the scum attempted a kill on a player that could not be nightkilled. In which case, the scum utterly failed to correctly identify the fourth PR.

There's no other option.

Though there is a good chance I won't claim at all this game.

"I won't need to claim because my death due to hide will do the claiming for me".

1) This is the biggest reason, and isn't purely mechanical, it's more pragmatic: with all of the setup info on the table for everyone to look at, we can collectively decide whether or not we think all PR claims are truthful based on balance, and narrow the lynchpool.

Yeah the thing is there's only one PR left unclaimed; we can instead not massclaim and agree we lynch any PR claim save for the one person who has a clear record demonstrating precisely what they are.
(I've known it since D1 since they accidentally gave it away VERY early on. To prove I know it--this player with the unclaimed PR had that PR in a game modded by a current-or-former skittle. Which I realize doesn't narrow it down that much; I can tell you type of skittle OR former/current if need be.)

We can avoid mislynches that might have occurred based on unclaimed information.

This will not happen. The player with the last role has been very overt with their breadcrumbs and upon their death it will be impossible to miss their night actions.

On that note, said player has a chance of dieing during the night, soooooooooooooooo.

3) We can audit everyone's completed games to ensure that claims aren't similar to scum roles they've had; in most cases here, confirmable role = confirmable alignment.

I already did this for the player in question. If they have any scumgame with this role or a role similar, I missed it.

Thus, this is worthless.

4) I've said this before, but I'll reiterate, because it's critically important to understand: we are ahead. Really, really ahead. In games, when you are ahead, you want to reduce the potential variance in the game so as to avoid as many unlikely loss situations as possible.

The thing about massclaim--and this is the biggest flaw with your argument:

Massclaim works on a principle which is almost identical to risk-reward.
It is gain, versus loss.

The time to massclaim is the time where the most is gained and the least is lost.

Right now, if we massclaimed, information which the scum desperately need would be given to them--meaning we lose a lot.
Yet that information gives the town nothing of actual use--meaning we gain nothing.

This is all you need in order to know massclaim is not happening today.

Or for a long time at that.

How do you know that they don't know who the fourth PR is?

Because if they did, then we would have had a nightkill last night which resulted in said PR being dead. The last PR is one which they can in fact kill. Quite easily,

given how poorly they're hidden

.

Instead, the LACK of nightkill serves as potential proof that they

don't

know. EVEN IF THEY KNOW THE PR'S IDENTITY, they don't know the PR's power.

And what's the downside of them knowing, given that they already know plenty of good nightkill choices?

Because giving a roadmap to the scum of who to kill is exactly the fucking thing we do if we're looking to turn our advantage into a loss?

Can't get much more explicit than this. The game mutantdevle was a hider was moderated by T-Bone, a current skittle, of the listmod variety. I could tell you "current" or "listmod", but not both because there's only, what, five current listmods? Some small number like that, which mutant presumably hasn't played many games modded by under. Hiders have a high mortality rate. Also a reemphasis on hidden.

Forgot to mention 5) we can force scum to 100% commit to a claim now, and prevent a possible power play later on. This ties hand-in-hand with the idea of reducing variance.

The one and only player who holds a PR this game not already claimed has absolutely zero wiggle room on it. They have locked this claim in since D1, and there is no way to back out of it.

They

should thus remain hidden

as long as humanly possible.

And isn't not having enough useful information on hand all the more reason to massclaim, to get as much useful information as possible?

Massclaiming won't give any useful information beyond the facts which are self-evident.

So yes. There's no useful unclaimed information, other than the information about the identity of the last PR.

More hidden. Also, mutant's death would make his claim self-evident.

based on night info i think NLing is not a terrible strat.

ABSOLUTELY NOT, no.

There is a RIDICULOUSLY high chance we'll have two deaths in a night before mylo, thus, placing us back on odds if we lynch every day.

If we no-lynch now, we will have to fucking no lynch AGAIN when--not if, WHEN--that second death happens in order to get onto odds.

In other words.

It wastes two entire day phases.

I'd rather eat a lynch than let us no-lynch.

Get off of evens, due to a hider death.

VOTE: mastina

Please don't vote Mastina. They're a nice lady.

Confirmation of breadcrumbing that I am innocent.

mutant hasn't claimed and frankly shouldn't.

Gamma hasn't; I don't think Pine has; you haven't as far as I can recall; I haven't explicitly done so though I've given it away indirectly; one of these five players is an unclaimed but heavily softed PR that I know the identity of, and every claim (which will be VT claims from all but one) will narrow down the exact identity of the final PR.

So we shouldn't be doing that.

@Myloninja13, yes.

Here, he breadcrumbed a hide behind Myloninja.

Maybe but probably dont kill
mylo
Mastina

A birdie told me that we should never lynch either of those 2.

I say told me, but what I really mean in that I overheard the conversation whilst hiding in a tree to survive the onslaught of frogs.

Confirmation of hide, along with breadcrumb of it that is more explicit.

Also, not that it matters now, but I forgot about Awoo's vote when I hammered. Just a piece of trivia for ya.

I actually interpreted this as "I didn't get a chance to breadcrumb my target", which left two options--submitted nobody, or submitted BNL.

VOTE: Errantparabola

This is the obvious choice today right? If this flips town then that's when we start panicking a lil' bit.

And this led me to believe the latter, that he had hid behind BNL unannounced, thus, clearing everyone save for Errant.

Lol what. They murdered a misslynch target? Did they think Pine was an investigative because he said he was softening an inno? That's too funny.

I mean I can't see any other reason for scum to make that kill, which means the scum is blind as fuck as to what the setup in this game is because if scum knew what the remaining role was, they'd know just how stupendously obvious it was that it wasn't Pine.

And, yeah.

This should end the game, if I understand your meaning here correctly:

VOTE: Errantparabola.

Which brings us to today.

[mastina]

Which gives us 2 questions. First of all, you’re probably thinking “what the fuck mutant you’ve literally been leaving crumbs all game!”. Secondly, my question to you is, do you think they killed pine because they finally noticed my crumb?

It is possible. The options are they finally caught onto your breadcrumb and killed him for it, or they thought that Pine was a role.

I lean towards the latter, but the former isn't impossible.

Oh, and before you accuse me of being scum for pretending to be a hider all game, you should probably realise I’d never pull such a gambit without a strong method of getting out of it. I’m guessing you can probably figure it out since you got my hider crumbs

I do indeed. By my calculations, we'd be THOROUGHLY underpowered if there wasn't in fact a fourth PR. (It's not impossible, sure, yeah. But it's less probable.)

And when I did the research, I found one other role that I figured you could plausibly be. One which, if sprung as late as humanly possible, would be immensely pro-town and that also matches the descriptions you've given:

It is, indeed.

Not a role YOU need to claim.

Because SOMEONE ELSE does the job of revealing it.

But I am in fact expecting it. Something which would entirely clear you altogether, yes?

[mastina]

CLAIM MASTINA

I claimed VT implicitly somewhere in the D2-D4 range, where I stated "every player save the fourth PR--who is not me--has claimed".

But to get explicit, you're in for a ride.

I'll leave this as an open challenge.

If you think you know what my role is, you can give me the Correct Answer to this:

Simple callsign

Something replaces D.

It starts here. I was looking for an answer of "K". Alternatively, "Okay"; I'd have accepted an answer of Okay's synonym, "Alright". I'd also have settled for just, "A letter", because that would have let me know that you had picked up on my meaning.

Specifically, K replaces D. What does this mean?

As far as breadcrumbs, I'll actually give you three.

Spoiler: Incredibly Contrived, Convoluted Breadcrumb

So, my First Encounter with Markiplier was this video:

I quickly progressed to seeing him obsess over it with such moments as when he beat 4/20 mode...but I particularly loved seeing:

Now I bring this up, because this actually reminds me of some Newer content.
Specifically,

As for what this is a breadcrumb of...you'll neeeeeeeever find me.

For what it's worth, the second role hint (aka, my "incredibly generic doesn't-really-narrow-it-down hint) is that the game I am breadcrumbing has at least some bitter feelings from me involved.
The third and final hint?

I am quite aware that mutant said we shouldn't breadcrumb.

I am on record as saying that this role actually

should

be breadcrumbed. (I'm not sure if I have explained the theory behind why this role should be breadcrumbed, but I know for a 100% fact, on MULTIPLE occasions, I can and have stated this role absolutely should be breadcrumbed.) When I roleclaim, I can go into the theory as to why. (Or if I die before claiming, then I'll do the theory talk in the dead PT.)

K replaces D. Baldi's Basics. Balki B.

Who is Balki B?

Balki B is the bastard who got me mislynched in Newbie whateverthenumberis Dragon Warrior. (Incidentally, Balki B's avatar was the same sock puppet found in that game for at least some period of time.) You can see the additional hints in there as well. "First Encounter", capitalized because that was my first encounter with Balki B. Newer, capitalized randomly to hint at it being a Newbie game. The bitter feelings are that I was V/LA during deadline and got deadline-lynched on D1 in spite of me having fairly good reads.

And yes.

I am on record as saying that you absolutely

should

breadcrumb being VT. In this case, it's a zero-risk, high-reward maneuver. You're breadcrumbing the truth, so it's not a lie. But it's something likely to attract the attention of the scum, increasing the odds that you die. Furthermore, even if you don't, scum are likely to waste actions on you that they otherwise wouldn't. It's altogether a sound plan, and the more overt, the better in this case.

I will also say I'm more than a little worried that mastina's opening looks an awful lot like something she could have planned to do if she got a scum role PM when she /inned for this game, with a specific role that she had planned to fakeclaim in mind.

I don't plan fakeclaims before I receive my role PM (I mean I

do

plan OPENERS before I receive my role PM but I don't plan CLAIMS before I do; planned claims comes AFTER), I don't fakeclaim as scum, and this is NOT a role I would fakeclaim.

Guarantee you.

Vanilla Townie is not a role I would fakeclaim.

and this is NOT a role I would fakeclaim.

How open you are to giving clues about your role makes me uncomfortable.

It makes sense when you know what role I have and know my philosophy for this role. I have a rather specific agenda to achieve, and this gives me the best path towards it.

The specific agenda is to attract the attention of scum. I WANTED scum to focus on me. And for that matter, having town focus on me was a good way to get reads on said town, too. Being a distraction for the REAL town PRs was my goal.

VOTE: Mastina
I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I really feel like you're being dumb. (Especially since you're one of the few players in this playerlist to have a chance to know what role I possess off of my stance that this is a role which

should

be breadcrumbed. I breadcrumb ALL roles I have--even THIS one. Because no role, not even THIS one, should remain uncrumbed.)

Even VTs should breadcrumb that they are VT. They should make it a point to have their breadcrumbs be visible, but the meaning of said breadcrumbs be obscured. So the scum can tell that it's a breadcrumb, but not WHAT is being breadcrumbed. Forcing scum to guess--and since scum assume that no VT will breadcrumb, they guess wrong.

That's the main drive behind it, in fact.

Scum think VTs don't breadcrumb, so if a VT is caught breadcrumbing, then the scum are left clueless

.

And Mara has played enough with me to catch this policy of mine.

I think with mastina talking about her role so much, I think it’s best to leave sorting her to another Day.

VOTE: Mastina
I Really feel like wagoning this slot

I really feel like you're being dumb. (Especially since you're one of the few players in this playerlist to have a chance to know what role I possess off of my stance that this is a role which

should

be breadcrumbed. I breadcrumb ALL roles I have--even THIS one. Because no role, not even THIS one, should remain uncrumbed.)

The only role that popped into my head was unlisted by you and I don't think our last game finished by the start of this so it wouldn't count. That leaves me a bit confused, but I guess I could leave you until tomorrow.

I know I have explained my stance on this role at least once on mastina, but actually, the main time I've explained my stance on this role is on mastin2. Most notably, in at least one (if not two) games from a specific time. (One game, 2014; the other, 2013. I know I 'crumbed this role in at least ONE of them, but I don't know which one; it could be both, or one, or the other, but it was there and I KNOW I explained it.)

Which I state here. I know the VT-breadcrumbing policy exists on at least one game on both accounts between mastina and mastin2. In particular, in either Sabotage Mafia or PINKMIN Mafia, I know for a fact I breadcrumbed in spite of being (well, starting as, at least) VT in both.

[mastina]

Balki B is the bastard who got me mislynched in Newbie whateverthenumberis Dragon Warrior.

To be clear.

That's my claim.

VT, from Newbie 1791 Dragon Warriors.

[mastina]

Be familiar with and follow the Site Rules.

Specific Site Rules that are common issues are restated below.
2) Do not quote, screenshot, or cite timestamps of any private communication with the mod or within Private Topics. You may, however, paraphrase.

Do not use quotes, including quotation marks, in reference to private communication with other players or the mod, whether real or fabricated.

I'd like to point out that as far as I know, you don't state in your rules that quotation marks count as quoting; you're highly against site norms to consider quotation marks to be quoting. I certainly don't; for me, quotation marks

are

paraphrasing.

It's your game of course so will respect your ruling, butstill.

Something you should be aware of is how this rule of yours is not clear to others given standard site meta runs counter to your rule.

[mastina]

he's either mafia asetic or 1-shot PGO.

The latter could actually explain N2's no-kill. If Myloninja activated the PGO, there could have been a hope to kill one, if not more than one, role, completely and entirely without the capacity to be caught. (Say a tracker tracked a player to the role that died visiting Mylo. Okay, so the dead role visited Mylo. That doesn't make Mylo scum. Say a watcher watched Mylo. Goodbye, watcher! Thus, no role that I can think of would guilty Mylo.)

That having been said.

I would much prefer some time to think things over.

I'm quite miffed that mutant "cleared" both the players I was suspicious of D1, because I need to figure out which of those reads was right and which of those reads was wrong.

From a role perspective, Mylo looks worse, but I feel like going off of play is going to be a better metric than role, so.

I need to do stuff.

A bit distracted at the moment (my dad's being an asshole fatass), so probably not fully coherent. Also a bit busy. But will try to do some analysis within a week. (This game has two-week deadlines, right?)

[mastina]

The latter could actually explain N2's no-kill. If Myloninja activated the PGO, there could have been a hope to kill one, if not more than one, role, completely and entirely without the capacity to be caught. (Say a tracker tracked a player to the role that died visiting Mylo. Okay, so the dead role visited Mylo. That doesn't make Mylo scum. Say a watcher watched Mylo. Goodbye, watcher! Thus, no role that I can think of would guilty Mylo.)

Do you really think PGO is a role someone would no-kill over? There are no guarantees you can get anyone with it. If they had other teammates alive performing the night kill then sure, this is an ability you'd probably use. But when it's a choice of PGO

or

night kill, I think everyone in their right mind would choose night kill.

Do you also really think this role would exactly make the scum team balanced to the power that town had?

I do, actually. What's the worse that happens with nobody visiting? No deaths, you get to evens, but also no consequences as there's no possible guilties and no possible innocents. What's the best that happens? You take out one, possibly more, town PR without being guiltied. I also do think that it fits for the setup if you're the PR you have been hinting you are.

Mastina, are we able to conclude that Awoo is town simply because mafia didn't kill on night 2? Because, despite Awoo's terrible attitude to the game state, they would have to have simply done nothing on night 2 to be mafia.

It's a bit complicated. The short answer, "no, but yes"; the long answer, kinda sorta but not definitively.

Basically, what I mean by that is. There are reasons a player can decide to no-kill. It is also possible that a player just forgets/wasn't around. (Unlikely, but not impossible.) So it's not HARD evidence clearing Awoo. The question you then have to ask is, does it

suggest

Awoo is town? I haven't done my homework on whether the latter is possible (I think Awoo was around though? So it's probably not the case), but as to the former, I find it unlikely.

It's a

possibility

, but I don't think it's a

probability

. But I do admit at least some of this determination is based around more recent stuff when thinking about Awoo, how Awoo is handling things, along with some role spec and play spec. I want more time to think about it. Overall, I definitely do lean town--quite strongly--on it, but I want more time to be sure.

To that end, I'd like to ask something of Awoo.

Why

haven't

you voted? mutant has good reason not to; I have good reason not to. But if you're actually that sure it's Mylo, why haven't you committed to it with a vote? This seems particularly odd, given you're calling Mylo out for the exact same thing.

[mastina]

Basically, what I mean by that is. There are reasons a player can decide to no-kill. It is also possible that a player just forgets/wasn't around. (Unlikely, but not impossible.) So it's not HARD evidence clearing Awoo. The question you then have to ask is, does it

suggest

Awoo is town? I haven't done my homework on whether the latter is possible (I think Awoo was around though? So it's probably not the case), but as to the former, I find it unlikely.

It's a

possibility

, but I don't think it's a

probability

. But I do admit at least some of this determination is based around more recent stuff when thinking about Awoo, how Awoo is handling things, along with some role spec and play spec. I want more time to think about it. Overall, I definitely do lean town--quite strongly--on it, but I want more time to be sure.

What I meant is, "unlikely to be scum". Scum being a possibility, but not a probability. And thus, yes, suggesting town, loosely clearing Awoo, albeit not definitively.

I guess another way of saying it is that it's a soft-clear, but not a hard-clear, of Awoo. Yet in mylo, I can't rely on a soft-clear alone as evidence to altogether remove suspicion from someone. I need to get it right, which means I need to look at it from every angle with all the evidence rather than just one piece of the evidence.

For me overall the evidence suggests Awoo-town, Mylo-scum, but I want to look at all the evidence rather than about a quarter of it, if that makes sense.

[mastina]

OR we can no lynch.

It's established that I don't die when hiding behind people so I can just flip a coin on hiding behind either Awoo or Myloninja to hide behind and whichever one of you is scum will just have to kill the other in the hopes that I've hidden there to get 2 kills in 1 night and win the game. The game will either immediately end in a scum win or we will start the next day with one of Awoo or Myloninja dead thus proving the other as scum.

For this plan, I 100% promise that I won't be hiding behind Mastina or choosing not to hide at all. That way, if they choose to kill Mastina then we know they are the type of player who prefers to play it safe, and if there is no kill then we know they don't trust my word and tried to kill me. Either way, it tells us something about them.

Sound good mastina?

There's an argument to be had both way RE: lynching/no-lynching.
Since you're the one with the role, the decision to lynch/no lynch lies with you; if you think the no-lynch is better, then we no-lynch.

That having been said.

I'd prefer any such no lynch to be by deadline, as to give me the most time to read, ask questions, etc. while also allowing for instance Awoo to respond to Myloninja, something which needs to be done sooner rather than later. (Preferably so that we're both guaranteed to be alive to peer review it, as it were.)

[mastina]

I'll be honest: I completely dropped the ball, here.
I was SUPPOSED to do work here. Reread, reanalyze, etc.
I did not.
I didn't even know that we had gone into night, yet alone finished it.

And this is something that I DO need to try and figure out.

When I can (I'm phoneposting, so I need to get home from dance), I'll explain some more where I am coming from here.

[mastina]

Alright, so now that I'm home:

I'll explain some more where I am coming from here.

Where I'm coming from here is a tough spot, because both of you have reasons to be town and reasons to be scum--yet these reasons are vastly different (almost opposite) of one another, and I'm struggling to come up with one being a probability over the other.

What I mean by this is.

There are reasons for Awoo to be scum. Among them, mutant suspected Awoo's play more than I did and mutant died; furthermore, there's Awoo's attitude.

not responding to your posts I have an exam tmr

oh wow! look at that deadline. You're gong to have to flail faster, mylo

Sure whatever works

sorry but i have another exam tmr

and then i have another exam on day 15

Video games

During this whole time, Awoo has basically made excuse after excuse to do nothing. To provide nothing. Myloninja put in time and effort to make one HELL of a wallpost, and Awoo never got to responding to it even though that is something I specifically wanted Awoo to do (and I seem to recall even explicitly asking Awoo to respond to it but I may be mistaken there).

Basically, Awoo has solid reason to be scum just biding time, waiting it out, knowing that I'd be inclined to vote Mylo over Awoo naturally. Awoo looks like scum who doesn't feel the need to do anything, because I'll hand Awoo the win just by me being me. And in contrast, Mylo has put in some strong work indicating town.

I can cite the big wall yesterday, but I can also point to what looks like genuine gamesolving here:

Awoo, just for now please don't vote. This kill means I think there's a bit more chance of Mastina scum tbh, and it also means that the night 2 no kill was not someone shooting Mutant and him hiding, so Mastina doesn't get a townread for that.

I am going to attempt to solve this tonight, but untl then neither of you vote please. We have a good 6 days, we don't have to worry about losing yet.

...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND.

On the other hand.

There is strong evidence for Myloninja to be scum.
For a start, the missing kill N2 makes sense if Mylo used a 1x PGO that night.
mutant seemed open to that as a working theory, so Mylo had incentive to kill mutant as well, especially since a successful mutant death would give credence to the idea of me being scum.

And from that angle, the very same gamesolving posts can also be thought of as leaving options open. Myloninja is, quite specifically, not committing to either lynch, and in spite of

saying

that gamesolving would happen, hasn't put in the time/effort to do so, so in that regard, Mylo has the same mark against him that Awoo does.

And then there's how, other than his big gigantic wall, prior to then, all we got from Mylo is strings of posts like this:

I... don't actually really know what to say here lol. I mean, I could begin screaming but I like I think I've somewhat evolved past that lol. I'll be on later tonight if anyone wants to have a quick time talk, but right now I have to go to school sorry.

And similar posts throughout the whole game. Where he promises effort and yet doesn't deliver; what makes 1548 noteworthy is that it's the first time Mylo

does

.

Yet even that effort can be explained by Mylo knowing he's at a disadvantage. Knowing mechanically evidence points to him, knowing he is suspected, he'd know he'd need to put in some amount of effort to hopefully avert the inevitable, and it's worked so far to have that effect.

That's more or less the town and scum reasons for both of you, but the problem is, I can't figure out which is more likely. Which is the probability, versus which is a simple possibility.

I could really use some more from both of you right now.

[mastina]

Well so far isoing the nightkills is a little bit of a bust.
BNL didn't have anything I could use; Pine died thinking all three of us were town. He did earlier hold Awoo suspicion and dropped it for reasons that aren't the greatest, but he still died thinking all of us were town. mutant as I mentioned before gave mixed signals; he seemed to think by play Awoo was much worse but by role mechanics thought Awoo might be conftown.

I'll see if I can glean anything from Wisdom.

[mastina]

Huh.

because awoo is town

i dont want to lynch awoo

kokichi, mylo, implosion

if you want to flashwagon someone I'm always up for mylo

hey tw
doesnt mylo lack this transparent newbtown feel he had in coalition here? Or was i just biased there because scum

mostly agree with these reads i guess
though id rather pressure mylo
the rest are harder to read

Mylo feels different than town-him

also
VOTE: mylo
i should be sheeped

Happy with my Mylo vote currently

I'm pretty sure Mylo is the player most frequently mentioned by Wisdom, consistently as a scumread. He also died saying he didn't want to lynch Awoo.

That

does

look kinda bad for Mylo.

[mastina]

Because I can't see why either Awoo or I would go for Mutant? Unless Awoo is some genius who knew Mutant was lying about his role that they didn't even really knew he had until a day before anyway, what use is it to go for a hider hiding elsewhere? And if you think I'm scum, why would I do the same thing? Even if I somehow knew he was lying anyway, why would I attack him??

The real question to ask is why I would kill mutant when mutant had full 100% trust in me and I knew a mutant kill would implicate me.

Mastina, can you share a link to your most recent completed scum game/s? I'm more of a meta-person than an analysis person, but for this game I understand I'm going to have to do more lol.

The problem with my scum games is that each scumgame is different.

Inventions Mafia is a poor representation of my scumgame, because I was struggling to keep up. I was eternally behind. Like, over 100 pages behind. People were producing content faster than I could read content so I couldn't play at all.

Minuet's Trio is a poor representation of my scumgame, because I was explicitly lazy about playing. I had zero investment in the game; I wasn't trying at all.

Turn of Camn is a poor representation of my scumgame, because I knew that it had a near-identical player set to Inventions Mafia, in a timeframe almost exactly after Inventions Mafia, featuring Ellibereth who had a known scumtell on me; my play there was specifically geared towards getting me dead first so I was specifically aiming to die.

The last true representation of my scum meta was XP Mafia, which was almost a full year ago but also the last time I was scum in a game where I actually played like I do as scum.

But might I ask why you didn't ask for town games as well?

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75529
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=75853

The problem I have is that

those games are almost an exact match to your play the majority of the game

. You're telling me they're different from this game, but they look the same to me.

[mastina]

For starters, why wouldn't you go for Mutant?

Because optimal play for scumastina is to no-kill. Mylo would require all three town to lynch me; mutant had full confidence I was town; leaving mutant alive wouldn't implicate me and would actually implicate one of you two.

You seem to think that mutant is a better kill than Awoo or you; this would be true. But mutant is a far inferior kill to just no killing.

Now the part that really irks me is that you think my scum games look in any way like this game lol.

Oh really?

Then explain to me how this type of post:
Subject: Open 718: MLOASR - Game Over

So are we scum hunting now? I'm sorry, I'm not really following along with what we have to do now, do we no lynch again and get another cop read to narrow the lynch pool? Or are we killing the lynch pool now?

...And endless similar ones...

...Is any different from this type of post:

HAHA lol. Best game state ever lol.

I'll be a little safe before hammering but just like lol.

...And endless similar ones, this game.

They're the same.

[mastina]

mastina. i can't clear you for mechanical wifom. As you can see from my post I am considering the possibility that you are mafia. Please address the accusation "i think u might be mafia" for me.

What's there to address?

You literally in that very same post talked about the reasons why I'm town.

1. realize that I/we/everyone was putting too much stock into her aggression day 1 and mistook aggression for towniness
2.

probably look at her recent posts and see if they read kinda like sitting back instead of gamesolving(?)

3. notice that when discounting the aggression, mastina's towniness has been somewhere in the "just ok" range (which is where mafia typically are) and mylo's been spewing town in recent posts, something that felt bad to ignore due to "mechanics". But I think this is starting to actually make sense now.

I was suspicious of Kokichi Oma and Espeonage on D1. I advocated to keep town players alive. Fought against the BNL mislynch. Against the Momrangal mislynch. Against the Pine mislynch.

I've been fucking gamesolving since D1. In fact I HAD the game solved D1. Literally, completely solved. On D1.

[mastina]

If I outed an alt of mine I could even give you a perfect example of an exact mirror to this game.

Like.

Exact fucking mirror.

In that I was town in that game, nailed scum early, and then this sort of bullshit in the last minute meant I had to shift gears, waste time defending myself, and ultimately scum won that game at least in part because I wasn't able to focus where I should have been focusing.

I get that it's lategame.
And natural to have paranoia.
But paranoia will fuck you over ten times out of ten.
And lose the damn game.

[mastina]

And honestly.

What are you giving, off of this game, to help me here?

What are you giving, from this game, that shows why you're town?

That's what I want to know.

Not.
"This is outside my scum range."

That's a shitty-ass reason.
Scumplay evolves.
That's one of the reason why I'm as good a scum player as I am; I literally never play the same way twice.
I keep changing it up.
Doing differently.

What from this game.
Shows proof, hard proof, that you're TOWN.

That's what I'm after.
I can show how basically every single nightkill had me as a townread.
I can show how I've had right reads on basically everyone except for implosion. (The single read I've had wrong the entire game.)
But I can't show you anything outside of a scum range because literally nothing is outside of my scum range.

And by using that metric I will lose 100% of the time because I will always answer the same.
I can do that as scum.
It's just a matter of whether I WOULD.

So ask yourself.

Would I do the things scum have done this game; would I do the things I've done if I were scum?

[mastina]

Another way of putting it: you two are young, so maybe you don't know the golden rule of mylo/lylo.
Not to trust mylo/lylo.

Ask any veteran player.
It's kinda annoying that I'm the only veteran player alive.
But they'd vouch for this, and even if not I'd NEVER lie about mafia theory and this is mafia theory talk.

Universally.
Any experienced player will tell you.
In mylo/lylo.
The scum player is playing identically to the town.
Because the scum player has basically the same overall stuff as the town players do.

To win the game.

You have to look at the game BEFORE lylo/mylo.
Because the actions BEFORE lylo/mylo mean more.

I wish I could explain the theory better. Maybe I can pull up the theory somewhere, but this is how it works.

[mastina]

Yeah, those posts are not similar in anything but subject matter. Notice that I have fun in the second one, actually seem interesting in the game and not sound fake as hell?

Not really, no!

What I see is the same pattern in both games of largely useless posting, which is mostly prod-dodging with the occasional content to have some semblance of looking like contribution...only, not actually putting anything into it.

Uh... okay then? I mean, I didn't think that it being mylo/lylo suddenly meant you couldn't read or judge people?

It means that during mylo/lylo, you can't trust what people say, because town and scum are acting identically. The reason why boils down to a simple principle. Town are acting with the same information as scum are at that point, more or less. Town and scum have the same motivation: at all costs, avoid getting lynched, and lynch a target player.

They have the same needs. They have the same goals. They have the same exact agenda, which is identical regardless of their alignment. I am telling you that I'd be playing this lylo identically as scum, because there would be nothing differentiating the two. Townplay and scumplay from players of a higher caliber is already nearly identical. Townplay and scumplay from players of a higher caliber is already very hard to differentiate between, even under normal circumstances. But because in lylo the goals are identical between alignments, so too is the play for them.

So you use content

prior to

mylo/lylo. Because content PRIOR TO mylo/lylo, has a clear town/scum agenda attached to it, and all actions prior to mylo/lylo would thus have an alignment motivation backing them.

That's not to say content in mylo/lylo is altogether worthless--but it's to say that content in mylo/lylo should be reflecting content from the rest of the game. What I mean by that is, content which is analyzing content throughout the game and talking and discussing about game-long, game-wide content is useful; content which is entirely unique to the phase of mylo/lylo is not.

For easy examples.

1585, exclusively mylo/lylo content, and thus, not something you can trust to hold alignment information. The post immediately above it, 1584, not exclusive mylo/lylo content, and thus, something you can trust to hold alignment information, because it is discussing prior play.

The same can be done for Awoo or for myself. 1597, exclusively mylo/lylo content, and thus, not something you can trust to hold alignment information. 1573, easy example of something you can trust to hold alignment information because it is not exclusive mylo/lylo content, due to being entirely about prior play.
1587, not mylo/lylo exclusive content, and thus, something you can trust to hold alignment information. 1586, a self-explanatory example of exclusive mylo/lylo content that doesn't hold alignment information.

I realize there is some ambiguity in the difference between the two. But the basic guideline is there. Reflecting light on actions prior to mylo/lylo holds alignment information, because it is explaining/weaving your narrative. Narratives hold alignment, which can be judged as such.

Actions exclusive to mylo/lylo don't hold alignment information, because they are isolated from the rest of the game, they hold no connection to it.

Basically.

Another way of thinking about it.

Actions done in mylo/lylo that are divorced from phases prior to mylo/lylo cannot be trusted--that detachment from the rest of the game is something not alignment indicative.

Actions done in mylo/lylo that are connected to phases prior to mylo/lylo can be trusted--that continuation from the rest of the game shows a continuation of the same alignment markers.

Even now I'm probably not explaining it as well as I should, but I tell you. Pine would back me up here. Marangal would back me up here. Errant and Wisdom would

probably

back me up here. And implosion most certainly would back me up here since this sort of theory talk is right up his alley and he'd vouch for it, just using far better logic and explanations.

I do kinda like this post, but eh at the same time saying "Nothing is outside of my scum range" kinda brings up the point that we can't actually prove your town by actual play then? Like, I mean if really nothing is out then I dunno if you would do this stuff?

That's my fucking point. I am easy to mislynch because I can't use the same defense. I can't say something is outside of my scumrange, because nothing is.

The closest I have to a defense is my standing policy: Balancing Possibilities, versus Probabilities. Which is the question.
Yes, I CAN do that as scum.
But WOULD I do that as scum.

Another aspect of that is risk-reward analysis. My guiding principle of scumplay is, always: lowest risk, for highest reward. So when you combine the two. What you get, is that the thing to look for is what I WOULD do, given the risks inherent to an action, compared to the reward from that action.

Except you could have had two lynch-baity town players as your two biggest scumreads, and ended the day phase not on the flipped scum.

Players being lynchbait is irrelevant to alignment. Nothing stops lynchbaity players from actually just being scum, and since I'm town it's guaranteed that one such lynchbait player

is

scum, so.

This is a point which basically relies on me being scum. In order to be evidence for me being scum. AKA, circular logic.

As for me not being on the flipped scum at the end of the day phase--no fucking shit? You fucking lynched him when I was V/LA.

To whit:

Btw before I forget:

MOD: I will be V/LA from Friday to Sunday, with

absolutely zero internet access

.

Declaration of V/LA.

It means that scum are unlikely to night kill us?

Nope! Noooooooot even remotely close.

My last post before leaving. Note the timestamp: Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:16 pm.

At that time?

[5] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine, the worst, BulletNLynchproof, mutantdevle
[4] Espeonage ~ implosion, Wisdom, Myloninja13, Ms Marangal
[3] BulletNLynchproof ~ Espeonage, Awoo, Kokichi Oma
[1] Not Voting ~ Errantparabola

Awoo was my main suspect, and the wagon on him was larger than the wagon on Espeonage. I had no reason to switch to Espeonage because as far as I was concerned it was switching from one scumspect to another.

[5] Espeonage ~ implosion, Wisdom, Myloninja13, Ms Marangal, Awoo
[4] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine, BulletNLynchproof, mutantdevle
[2] BulletNLynchproof ~ Espeonage, Kokichi Oma

Note the timestamp of 633. Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:40 am. While it's true that at this point I'd have reason to switch to Espeonage. I was V/LA. With zero fucking internet access. So it was humanly impossible for me to have switched at that point.

[7] Espeonage ~ implosion, Myloninja13, Awoo, the worst, BulletNLynchproof, Errantparabola, Kokichi Oma
[4] Awoo ~ mastina, Pine, mutantdevle, Espeonage
[2] BulletNLynchproof ~ Wisdom, Ms Marangal

Note the time of the lynch. Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:52 pm.

No fucking shit I wasn't on Espeonage. Because how the fuck was I supposed to get on that wagon when I was V/LA with zero internet access?

Also.

You point out that both you and Awoo were on the D1 lynch of scum.

I've got news for you.

That's a mark

against

you.

Not in favor of you.

You know why?

Because on D1 in a mini. Stats have shown, time and time again. That the town almost never manages to lynch scum without one or both scum bussing.

You already know one scum bussed because Kokichi Oma was the hammer.

Why do you think it's not possible for two scum to have bussed, when it's proven one did? And scum lynches in a mini are

notoriously

difficult to get on D1 without the support of scum?

Like.

If I had the time.

I could pull up the statistics for D1 scum lynches in mini normals. It'd take me a while to search the last five years or so, but overwhelmingly the data would back my point because I've been a fucking mini normal reviewer for that long and been watching those games play out endless numbers of times so I've seen it time and time again. Town lynches scum D1, only to lose later because scum bussed to get the scum lynch and town didn't realize it.

Or, alternatively, town lynches scum D1, and wins because scum bussed, town ignored the scum bussing and lynched them in spite of them having helped to lynch scum, causing steamroll town victories. But scum still bussed all the same.

Scum win, town win, regardless. Overwhelmingly. A d1 scum lynch is made possible by scum having bussed.

Not to mention the next day you advocated to go for a town player instead of obvious scum and used arguments that were either not reasonable or inconsequential to get there?

Yeah no.

My reasoning held true then and it is actually EVEN MORE TRUE now than ever before.

Kokichi Oma was doomed to die from a vig.

None of us three have held a scum role that could have stopped the vig--he was going to die to it no matter what. Do you deny this?
Okay. So if he was going to die to the vig no matter what.
Then what is the scum motivation in me arguing to let him live through the day?

There isn't any, because he was doomed to die no matter what.
He was a dead man walking.
We lynched him, but had we not. He, 100%, was going to die to BulletNLynchproof's vig.

Do you deny that?

Okay.

So with him dieing no matter what.

You then have to ask what the fuck scum motivation there was for me sticking my neck out for him, in spite of knowing he was going to die no matter what. And keep in mind! Because I knew that mutant was the only PR left in the game, I knew that there were no roles left to surprise me.

And then you weigh the counter.

What's the town motivation to letting Kokichi Oma live?

Prove BulletNLynchproof as town, conftowning him beyond all measure of doubt. Furthermore, if Kokichi Oma were in fact town rather than scum, allowing us to have three town-controlled deaths rather than just one or two. (Which is what we got by lynching Kokichi Oma.)

You say unreasonable arguments.

I maintain that lynching Kokichi Oma was the unreasonable option. It was better from a play perspective by every metric to just fucking vig him, and this is self-evident when you look at the facts.

Unless you want to deny any of this. Or provide a counter to it.

I'm right because I know my fucking mafia theory. It's my shtick. It's what I fucking do. Lynching Kokichi Oma was a mistake, because vigging Kokichi Oma was the superior option in every way. And the results of the game are proof enough of this fact. The whole time, mind you. Not once did I deny Kokichi Oma was obvscum. Quite the opposite, I was the strongest proponent of it.

But I have gone on record before (and can link you to it if need be) and will do so many times again. That sometimes. Lynching the player most likely to be scum

isn't

the optimal play. Because sometimes. There are good reasons to opt for other options, specifically, options which allow the town to be given more information than if they had opted for the easy scum lynch.

Oh! And there's another way of putting it, too. I'm going to quote Ankamius here, because she's someone who has a similar enough viewpoint to my own that her words help to explain my view on things.

I've seen a few games that have a scum/3p lynch day 1 and an unreadable day 2

I've yet to see town win those games

that's part of the reason I say scum lynches aren't necessarily good for town

the only scum lynch that truly matters is the last one

the best play for town at any one time is the one that give town the biggest chances of achieving this

I'm the type of player that tries to find scum motivation behind how the gamestate evolves, and that's easier the more scum there are in the game, it's the single biggest reason why I tend to be significantly better and far more accurate in games where scum are actually winning than when town are winning, because scum motivation is easier to determine when there's more scum and they are successfully enacting whatever plan they're doing

games like this where scum just kind of drop off like flies early on are a lot harder to figure out because the way the game evolves is significantly more likely to be just town driven while also being harder to find scum in a vacuum since there's less tools available to find them with, so it's way more difficult to tell which wagons are purely town driven and which ones are scum-influenced

that's not even getting into the territory of gambits/planned busses (ask sakura about corpse party for this one) or situations like scum gambiting a bus and getting just enough towncred that the vig doesn't kill them, etc.

I'm not arguing that scumflips are bad

I'm saying that scumflips aren't good just because they're scumflips

yeah scumflips are very good info to work off of when town is in a position to take advantage of it, which generally requires town to be able to work with each other effectively already

if town isn't even able to reach that stage, then no amount of scumflips is going to be enough to swing the game to a town win

Don't underestimate town's ability to get really cocky off an early scum lynch

Ankamius's viewpoint on the matter is basically similar enough to my own.

This is a series of quotes from her in a completed game. Know what happened? Scum lynched D1 and early into the game all but one member of the scumteam were annihilated. Last scum still won. For exactly these reasons.

Lack of optimization, essentially.

Yes, Kokichi Oma was scum.
Yes, lynching Kokichi Oma was a scum lynch.
But look where that's gotten us so far.
Whereas vigging Kokichi Oma would have put us in a much better position overall.

Your point is proof that I'm town in fact. I would not have argued for Kokichi Oma's survival as scum, knowing that doing so would be detrimental to my wincon. Because Kokichi Oma being vigged was the optimal town play, arguing for it would be

playing against a scum wincon

. Scum WANTED Kokichi Oma lynched. Because scum WANTED to deny town that extra information.

I was fucking right.
Because I know my fucking theory.

[mastina]

The closest I have to a defense is my standing policy: Balancing Possibilities, versus Probabilities. Which is the question.
Yes, I CAN do that as scum.
But WOULD I do that as scum.

Another aspect of that is risk-reward analysis. My guiding principle of scumplay is, always: lowest risk, for highest reward. So when you combine the two. What you get, is that the thing to look for is what I WOULD do, given the risks inherent to an action, compared to the reward from that action.

Not to mention the next day you advocated to go for a town player instead of obvious scum and used arguments that were either not reasonable or inconsequential to get there?

Yeah no.

My reasoning held true then and it is actually EVEN MORE TRUE now than ever before.

Kokichi Oma was doomed to die from a vig.

None of us three have held a scum role that could have stopped the vig--he was going to die to it no matter what. Do you deny this?
Okay. So if he was going to die to the vig no matter what.
Then what is the scum motivation in me arguing to let him live through the day?

There isn't any, because he was doomed to die no matter what.
He was a dead man walking.
We lynched him, but had we not. He, 100%, was going to die to BulletNLynchproof's vig.

Do you deny that?

Okay.

So with him dieing no matter what.

You then have to ask what the fuck scum motivation there was for me sticking my neck out for him, in spite of knowing he was going to die no matter what. And keep in mind! Because I knew that mutant was the only PR left in the game, I knew that there were no roles left to surprise me.

And then you weigh the counter.

What's the town motivation to letting Kokichi Oma live?

Prove BulletNLynchproof as town, conftowning him beyond all measure of doubt. Furthermore, if Kokichi Oma were in fact town rather than scum, allowing us to have three town-controlled deaths rather than just one or two. (Which is what we got by lynching Kokichi Oma.)

You say unreasonable arguments.

I maintain that lynching Kokichi Oma was the unreasonable option. It was better from a play perspective by every metric to just fucking vig him, and this is self-evident when you look at the facts.

Unless you want to deny any of this. Or provide a counter to it.

I'm right because I know my fucking mafia theory. It's my shtick. It's what I fucking do. Lynching Kokichi Oma was a mistake, because vigging Kokichi Oma was the superior option in every way. And the results of the game are proof enough of this fact. The whole time, mind you. Not once did I deny Kokichi Oma was obvscum. Quite the opposite, I was the strongest proponent of it.

But I have gone on record before (and can link you to it if need be) and will do so many times again. That sometimes. Lynching the player most likely to be scum

isn't

the optimal play. Because sometimes. There are good reasons to opt for other options, specifically, options which allow the town to be given more information than if they had opted for the easy scum lynch.

Oh! And there's another way of putting it, too. I'm going to quote Ankamius here, because she's someone who has a similar enough viewpoint to my own that her words help to explain my view on things.

I've seen a few games that have a scum/3p lynch day 1 and an unreadable day 2

I've yet to see town win those games

that's part of the reason I say scum lynches aren't necessarily good for town

the only scum lynch that truly matters is the last one

the best play for town at any one time is the one that give town the biggest chances of achieving this

I'm the type of player that tries to find scum motivation behind how the gamestate evolves, and that's easier the more scum there are in the game, it's the single biggest reason why I tend to be significantly better and far more accurate in games where scum are actually winning than when town are winning, because scum motivation is easier to determine when there's more scum and they are successfully enacting whatever plan they're doing

games like this where scum just kind of drop off like flies early on are a lot harder to figure out because the way the game evolves is significantly more likely to be just town driven while also being harder to find scum in a vacuum since there's less tools available to find them with, so it's way more difficult to tell which wagons are purely town driven and which ones are scum-influenced

that's not even getting into the territory of gambits/planned busses (ask sakura about corpse party for this one) or situations like scum gambiting a bus and getting just enough towncred that the vig doesn't kill them, etc.

I'm not arguing that scumflips are bad

I'm saying that scumflips aren't good just because they're scumflips

yeah scumflips are very good info to work off of when town is in a position to take advantage of it, which generally requires town to be able to work with each other effectively already

if town isn't even able to reach that stage, then no amount of scumflips is going to be enough to swing the game to a town win

Don't underestimate town's ability to get really cocky off an early scum lynch

Ankamius's viewpoint on the matter is basically similar enough to my own.

This is a series of quotes from her in a completed game. Know what happened? Scum lynched D1 and early into the game all but one member of the scumteam were annihilated. Last scum still won. For exactly these reasons.

Lack of optimization, essentially.

Yes, Kokichi Oma was scum.
Yes, lynching Kokichi Oma was a scum lynch.
But look where that's gotten us so far.
Whereas vigging Kokichi Oma would have put us in a much better position overall.

Your point is proof that I'm town in fact. I would not have argued for Kokichi Oma's survival as scum, knowing that doing so would be detrimental to my wincon. Because Kokichi Oma being vigged was the optimal town play, arguing for it would be

playing against a scum wincon

. Scum WANTED Kokichi Oma lynched. Because scum WANTED to deny town that extra information.

I was fucking right.
Because I know my fucking theory.

You can actually combine these two quite effectively. Every action I do is

possible

from scumastina. The question is whether it's probable--and for the probability, when you weigh risk versus reward.

What's the risk for defending Kokichi Oma on D2?
I get exposed as scum for defending a scumbuddy.
What's the reward for defending Kokichi Oma on D2?
Jackshit, because Kokichi Oma is guaranteed to die N2 even if I succeed.

Defending Kokichi Oma as his scum partner has zero reward (because Kokichi Oma dies regardless of what I do, just a question of during the day or during the night), yet tremendous risk, attached to it. The polar opposite of optimal play.
So while it's

possible

I could do that as scum.

By far. The most

probable

answer is simply...I wouldn't.

[mastina]

Incidentally, a fair amount of my theory talk you can find listed here, with a more complete list here that contains some obsolete articles.

I feel like this is particularly important because this literally feels like a Road to Rome game where the IC lived to lylo, and by virtue of having lived to lylo, the newbies are assuming the IC must be scum just because of that fact alone. Not an exact metaphor but the parallels are there.

I know my mafia theory. I take pride in it. I never lie about it in a game, regardless of alignment because lying about theory is just something you. don't. fucking. do. It's deplorable. Theory of the game is holy to me, because it is something that I enjoy on a level transcending an individual game. Lying about it would forever taint the theory, and I'd never abide by that.

And because I know my mafia theory. I also know the mechanics attached to it. I am not perfect at mechanics, mind you--I am prone to errors from oversights on my part. But these oversights are never deliberate and entirely from me being human, flawed, and simply derping; once I realize I made a mistake, I correct it and move on. It's also literally my JOB to know mafia theory. As a game reviewer and moderator, I need to know the theory of the game to help design/review/moderate the game. And while reviewer oversights happen, while I make more moderator errors than I'd care to admit, by and large, I know what I'm talking about.

Mafia theory is to some extent, in some areas, subjective. (This can be traced back to a simple factor: what works for one person won't work for another, and thus, players have to customize their theory to suit their style.) My articles come in two flavors. Things that are self-evident that nobody put into article form before me but were widespread even without me, or things which are more my opinion on the particular subject. But while there are many areas that are subjective, there are quite a number that are not. Where hard objectivity based on theory, statistics, probability, and whatnot dictate what proper play is.

And to explain once more from where I'm coming from on this.
My particular style relies on engagement. I am, inherently, lazy. I am forgetful. I am a procrastinator. I'll say I'll do something, then not do it. I'll promise to do something, then not deliver it. I will forever forget to do the things I by all rights should be doing. I am at my worst when people are relying on me, because when they rely on me, I let them down.

I am at my best when people engage with me. From this engagement, I can explain my viewpoints, talk to them about theirs, and come to a better understanding of the game.

I also have a theory of pushing. I push hard, push extremely hard, against my scumspects, and this is for the purposes, more or less, of that engagement. Of that engagement, because from that engagement, information is generated, and from the information generated, I am given direction to go in the future.

And a problem I am having right now is that I am facing two incredibly similar styles, when my style is vastly different. So what I need is full engagement. On the things I mention, but also with one another.

[mastina]

Just saw this.

The closest thing is if someone's actions, if scum, would guarantee them a loss when otherwise they would have a good shot at winning

Killing the player townreading me with 100% confidence when I knew that kill would implicate me and I had the option of just no-killing? Pretty much exactly that.

Okay, so you really know your theory and you are passionate about it. Good for you! Now you wanted to engage right? What did you want to discuss.

Literally everything else in that series of posts.

1593, I answered you. You wanted to know where the gamesolving is; it's in literally the entirety of my posts because I've done it the entire fucking game. Also, you said that Mylo's posts in lylo were more genuine--but I talk about that in 1597, with more in it during 1607.

I asked you a question in 1596. What have you given, in this game, to help me show you're town?

What do you think of my defense in 1608, where I talk about my actions?

You're skipping all of that to focus on one detail which is frankly a sidenote.

[mastina]

Also, have to leave right now, but.
What do you think of Mylo's content across the whole game? Do you think my description of it is accurate? And do you think that description matches his prior scumgames? (Because I do.)

[mastina]

@ 1608 I don't really think much of it, sorry. Its not very hard to do something without any reward and then say "i had no reward to do it".

Then you and I can never come to terms because that is exclusively the way I think.

EVERYTHING can be called wifom.
So if everything is called wifom, you have a choice.
Either you take a ridiculous extreme by trusting everything or equally as absurd trusting nothing (that frankly is even worse).

Or you recognize that you need to reframe how you think of wifom.

And I think of wifom in terms of probabilities, versus possibilities. ANYTHING is possible, by wifom. What matters is what's most likely. By the probabilities. And the best tool for probability analysis is risk-reward calculation: What would be gained from this set of actions, versus what would be lost from that set of actions, in best/worst-case scenarios and everything in-between.

The game of mafia relies, inherently, on analyzing motivation. Ask what most top-tier scumhunters use as their main scumhunting tool, and most of them will tell you motivation. A fair amount will in fact answer meta, but meta is an extension of motivation. By that I mean, meta is a useful tool in establishing patterns of thought. What a player is likely to think (hey there's that word again! Probability, versus possibility), what that player is likely to do, and from this, establishing an alignment for their given actions.

By looking at the actions of a player, you then analyze them. And the base question is always. "Do these actions make more sense coming from town, or coming from scum?" And that is something motive determines. You look at the motive from every angle. "This is what the motive would be as town". "This is what the motive would be as scum". And then you compare the two. Which of the two motives is stronger?

It all ties together. Risk-reward. Possibilities versus Probabilities. Motive, mindset, even meta. They're all related to one another, intricately linked by these simple processes. And that's both how I scumhunt, and how I play as scum. As scum I utilize risk-reward calculations to optimize reward, and minimize risk; as town, I analyze those same patterns to find scum, working on a base assumption which goes, more or less.

That, essentially. Basically every player on some level knows and/or uses these concepts, even if they don't realize it on a more conscious level. Scum may not put that much thought into it, and town definitely don't, but they still operate by those base rules. I generally don't unpack my thought processes this much in a game, but this is how I have come to view the game and it's a strategy that works damn well.

But it's not a strategy which is such an exact science that I'm guaranteed to get it right; there's guesswork involved. And right now, I'm having a hard time making the right guess. So yes. I do need those things from you. The towncase and analysis on Mylo. And preferably further thoughts on me, because you haven't unpacked them that much other than saying it's possible I'm scum and that my townness is only middle-town. (Which is precisely the area I'm at when actually town.)

[mastina]

Another way of putting it: motivation analysis is the hallmark of like 90% of veteran players especially the top tier ones. They look at the motivations driving actions.
Yet what is motivational analysis when you think about it?
It's guessing what a person is thinking.
Guessing what a person is thinking is a form of wifom.
And yet. Motivational analysis is still one of the top-tier scumhunting tools. It's because of the framework of what's most probable. By assuming the most probable is the correct one, usually, you're right.

But how do you determine which is the most probable one in the first place?
To some extent guesswork is involved, yet there IS a form of metric used to help make it go from blind guess to more educated guesswork. And that's where risk-reward analysis comes into play; "what do they gain from this as scum", versus "what do they lose from this as scum", and the inverse, "what were they hoping to gain from this as town", versus "what were they willing to risk losing as town"; when you look at it in that way. You understand how I operate. Because usually. There is one option that is stronger than the other.

My main struggle here is that there

isn't

an option stronger than the other for me--and I need help getting it.

[mastina]

My main struggle here is that there

isn't

an option stronger than the other for me--and I need help getting it.

Maybe I can extrapolate on this even further.

FOR AWOO:

The town viewpoint for Awoo would, more or less, be that Awoo is a townie who had confidence that Mylo was scum, but being town, has the stupid paranoia all townies have come lylo, and is reconsidering even though nine times out of ten that costs the town the game. (I'm not sure if I wrote an article on the subject of paranoia or not, but my base sentiment there is "fuck paranoia". I think I opted to write probability versus possibility in place of that though, because paranoia is, when you think about it. Just idiotically playing up a possibility and talking yourself into believing it's real in spite of the probabilities that previously told you the right answer.)

Awoo's paranoia would then be a sign of not knowing who the scum is, and being unsure.

The scum viewpoint for Awoo would, more or less, be that Awoo was buttering up to me the whole game. Awoo was calling me town the entire time, and trying to get me to see Awoo as town the entire time, and it worked eventually (albeit mostly due to mutant lying). By trying to keep that townread, by trying to play it up, Awoo would have a shot at victory. And Awoo's lack of effort would reflect this, in that Awoo was happy with the gamestate and didn't want to force it to change. So making as little effort/push as possible would fit.

Furthermore, Awoo's stance on me being scum came...but only after Myloninja proposed the possibility, so Awoo could be scum leaving options open, hoping one of us votes the other.

FOR MYLONINJA:

The town viewpoint for Myloninja would, more or less, be that Myloninja is a town player who realized that if he didn't step up his game he'd be the game-ending mislynch. Not having really done much the whole game, he doesn't have much in the way of stances, so he doesn't know who the scum is, and is unsure of the two options. His first focus is on surviving, so that he isn't the mislynch; his second focus is on finding the final scum.

The scum viewpoint for Myloninja would, more or less, be that Myloninja is a scum player who realized if he didn't step up his game he'd lose. Not having cared much the whole game, he would be at a disadvantage, and would need to keep his options open. His first focus is on surviving, so that he doesn't lose; his second focus is on lynching someone else.

That's maybe not the best way of putting it.

But both are, approximately, equal in town/scum. There's reasons for both to be town and reasons for both to be scum and neither is inherently stronger than the other--and I am asking for engagement so I can get somewhere with it.

[mastina]

(And yes I am fully aware I can write one of those for myself as well but there's not much point in me doing that aside from to prove I can and to reiterate why you don't trust mylo/lylo content due to alignment being impossible to determine.)

[mastina]

Awoo, ETA on the stuff you promised?

[mastina]

If it's all right with you guys, I'd want a vote down with at least ~36 hours left so that if we got a scum in the votes the other person would have enough time to just focus fully on who is more likely scum.

I'd love to place a vote down, but.

I've got exams coming up. Hurry up and vote

LOL

sorry this is my first lylo so i don;t know what proper voting ettiquite is for making the first vote

Awoo is SCREAMING at me to be the right vote, strongly by gut, but by intuition. By logic. In spite of posts like this screaming scum. I'm still terrified that logically Awoo is town.

To put it another way.
Intuitively, by logic. Awoo is more town, due to a combination of numerous reasons throughout the whole game. Little stuff, adding up over time.
But posts like this are GIGANTIC RED FLAGS. Pinging my gut. My instincts. Hard, telling me that Awoo is actually scum.

And I don't know whether to trust my gut or to trust in logic because the two are not telling me the same thing.

[mastina]

Alright scrap everything else.
This is what I need from both of you, most of all.

Unpack your thoughts on both me and the other.
In as much detail as humanly possible.
Start to finish, every thought on both sides. Town and scum, and where you are and what you are thinking.

Explain, step by step. What you are seeing from me that is town and what you are seeing from me that is scum. Explain. Step by step. What you are seeing from the other in you that is town and what you are seeing from them that is scum. Cover everything. The whole game. The nightkills. The lynches. Meta. Whatever. Give it all, and tell me.

[mastina]

Alright I think that this is the right move:
VOTE: Myloninja13.

[mastina]

AWOO I AM SORRY FOR BREAKING YOUR HEART

[mastina]

Also, is fine to release scum pt.
And given that I was the only user of said pt, that's basically synonymous with all scum consenting.

[mastina]

Fuck you mastina.

</3

[mastina]

Yeah called it Mastina. You took me out for that reason, or for my claim?

Neither.
I took you out because I thought mutant was hiding behind you and I wanted mutant dead for my narrative.

[mastina]

BTW once I am home from work, I can comment further, respond to comments, give my thought process, give feedback, etc. I want to commemorate both Awoo and Mylo for doing admirably even if they got it wrong ultimately, and I feel like I owe them some ICesque feedback so that they can improve even further. <3

[mastina]

Also some for mutant, too. I think his gambit was brilliant, but it did have a flaw in the end, and I want to go over my thoughts in detail.

[mastina]

Alright, not quite sure where to begin here, but I'll try it from a play-by-play approach of the game.

I'll start with from the moment I received my role PM. From there, my attention immediately shifted towards two topics:
-Players in the game
-Roles in the game.
Which, when combined, would result in strategy for the game.

For players in the game...something well-known about me is that normally, I will go into full detail about every single player, my experiences with them, and how we as a scumteam should handle them. How to mitigate damage, how to treat them, how to interact with them, etc. However, given this playerlist, my conclusion was quite simple:

Btw, in this playerlist, the only player I'd be even remotely concerned about in terms of play would be Wisdom.

We might get fucked over by literally any player by ROLE (in which case, fuck KittyMo for making the scumteam so weak and allowing the town that chance), but Wisdom is literally the only player on this playerlist who has the charisma necessary to push for a lynch. Errant can obvtown, Momrangal may be problematic, implosion may be competent, and Espeonage may be competent, but it is incredibly doubtful the players in this town are going to work together. There's very little town cohesion potential; nobody here will really act as a "town glue".

Wisdom, while he is highly likely to be divisive and antagonistic, also has the best shot of uniting the town in spite of people loathing what he'll do. (Think kinda like RadiantCowbells there.) Get him dead N1, and we're fairly set for the rest of the game.

This is a game where you can push literally whoever you want, be it town or scumbuddy. Do whatever you feel like doing. Do whatever you want to do. The one thing to avoid is acting in a way displaying too much info since that can and will compromise us; always keep in mind that a town-you is dumber than you think and that you're not actually as likely to see those things as town, but we can distance, we can bus, we can buddy, we can have free reign on what to do and when. Provided we eliminate the largest obstacles first.

In other words. All I needed to do to secure a play-based win was remove the singular linchpin (or is it lynchpin? ) of the town: Wisdom.

Now it

just so happened

I lucked out and the town had bad luck of the draw that their strongest town player by play was ALSO their strongest town power role, so in that regard, I can say I had a large boost from the onset; from the moment Wisdom was assigned his role and I determined he was the nightkill, the fate of the town was pretty much sealed. I was largely anticipating this being an easy win, in fact.

Then comes the roles. Immediately from having what amounted to an all-goon setup, I knew--assuming a reasonably-balanced game (which it was!)--the town would not be made up of super-strong roles, and most likely would not have a large number of them. They would have around 5 VTs give or take one, and I had a fair idea what the composition of those roles were. No ungated cops/watchers flying around; we were going to be dealing with investigatives around the strength of tracker, and protectives like a doctor or even bodyguard. Roles boosting the town, but which outside of luck couldn't win the game for town.

From there, I did my homework. For all players with less than 60 games' worth of games, I researched what roles they had been. mutant having PR-slipped, I was able to determine he was EITHER: a hider OR an innocent child. I didn't know WHICH, but I knew he was ONE of them. Come D2 with his Awoo innocent 'crumb I knew he was breadcrumbing hider. (Incidentally, this meant that come D6 when mutant was revealed a liar, I knew precisely what his actual role was instead of hider. But more on that later.)

I also determined there'd be a tracker in the game, although I wrongly attributed it to being BulletNLynchproof. (Oops!) Once BNL was claimed, and mutant was claimed, I knew most of the roles in the setup; with Wisdom's death N1 and the worst's claim D2, I had the setup nailed including the presence of a Named Townie in the form of the backup vig.

In came the scum strategy.

This was not my A game, believe it or not.
Or rather.
This was more of a standard scumastina game.

I've recently played some more lackluster scumgames.
In each, I've promised, "soon, you'll get to see an absolutely new scumastina who is at her very best".
You might be inclined to think that'd be this game, but while I did well, I knew this game was always going to be a walk in the park because the town just didn't have the composition where it'd ever be able to realistically win. So I was actually a bit lazy. I did what I felt like doing, rather than doing what was necessarily the smartest, best things to be doing.

The Espeonage lynch and the Kokichi Oma double-target were unfortunate (although in the case of the latter this can also be thought of as fortunate), but I knew they'd only slow down the inevitable scum win.

Which brings me to a couple of my lylo comments.

ON SCUM BEING LYNCHED WITH SCUM'S HELP D1:

I meant this, that it was something that happens more frequently than not.
However, there was a contradiction in my narrative, Awoo/Myloninja, that you could have picked up on.
I was trying to have my cake and eat it, too.
I was arguing that because I called Espeonage scum, that was evidence I was town; I was arguing that the only reason I wasn't on the scum lynch is because I was V/LA (which is true). But at the same time, contradicting this, I was arguing that scum lynches on D1 often have scum on it.

In other words,

I was telling you that I should have been counted as if I were on the lynch

, which would then account for scum being lynched on D1 with the help of both scum.

ON MY DEFENSE OF KOKICHI OMA:

I maintain that, mechanically speaking, it was better to have vigged him than to let him live, especially knowing the setup had no scum roles to interfere.
However, this runs afoul of not one, but two factors you could have picked up on.
FACTOR NUMBER ONE: I was operating with too much knowledge.

With the benefit of hindsight

, yes, it was known that vigging him was better, but this was knowledge I only knew because I already had deduced the setup from my scum role PM. Had I been town, it was less likely I'd have known that and more likely I'd have argued that Lynches are the only guaranteed tool for death.
(That having been said. I'm not so sure. Town-mastina IS actually kinda psychic sometimes. When I stated that on D2 and restated it during lylo, it wasn't a lie. I can deduce facts about the setup as town that by all rights I

shouldn't

be able to deduce, and yet, somehow I did and do.)

FACTOR NUMBER TWO: While it was mechanically better for the town to vig Kokichi Oma than lynch him, that doesn't mean there was no scum agenda in arguing for it. Specifically, Kokichi Oma living into the night would have allowed me freedom to argue the second scum used their night ability, or allowed me to kill mutant with zero risk of being caught by the worst. So while I maintain that it was mechanically better for the town to vig Kokichi Oma, it was also something which would have afforded me as scum greater flexibility, something I glossed over in my narrative but which you may have noticed if you examined the situation closer.


Which brings me to what happened when we did lynch him.
I was always intending to no-kill, but I actually forgot to send in an action, even a bolded

no kill

. I had debated killing mutant in spite of his 'crumbed hide on me, because I figured I had nothing to lose, but I deemed it too much of a risk. If mutant lived through the night and the worst had seen me visit him, I'd have some explaining to do given I was already committed to a VT claim.

At this point, notably, I was THINKING mutant might not die when hiding behind me...but I couldn't be absolutely sure. I had to err on the side of caution, because if there were two kills in the night, that was game over for me right then and there, perfect town win. THIS WAS ANOTHER SPOT YOU CAME CLOSE TO CATCHING ME ON. No player had a greater incentive than I did for not killing anyone N2.

When I had confirmation that mutant wouldn't die when hiding behind me (via him being alive D3), I was already mapping out the road to victory.

I needed to push an implosion lynch through, but I lucked out a second time: due to defending both Pine and Marangal but not Marangal enough to save the slot, the implosion lynch was delayed. Delaying the implosion lynch delayed a need for me to fake a read evaluation. Around this time, you got me posting this:

Okay I just performed the mental math. I have a 95% pathway to victory.
It works like this:
We have 4 players who mutant hasn't hidden behind, but one is BNL, who he'll never hide behind.
We lynch one of the three. He hides behind a second, who I kill.

With him flipped, I lay out his crumbs. I bring up that I asked him to ask the mod if he died when hiding behind scum. He continued to call players clear after that, thus, he would die when hiding behind scum. This leaves 3 "clears”, and two uncleared. We Lynch one, I kill Myloninja, and in 3p lylo, Awoo votes BNL.

It's not guaranteed to work, but I like my odds.

Now there was a flaw in this plan. Notably, that mutant wasn't actually the hider he was pretending to be. Which is where I think the value in mutant's claim came in: he almost threw the scum off of their game, and with a claim that

almost

lead to their exposure! The nightkills DID point to a player knowing he was 'crumbing hider...and because I was the player who most obviously knew he was 'crumbing hider, this was evidence I was scum.

THIS IS WHY I THINK THE GAMBIT WAS GOOD.

However. The flaw entered in how easy it was to adapt:

I can use this.

Mislynch Errant as per the plan, then kill whoever I want to get a 4p mylo where there's no conftown.

The day we mislynched Errantparabola was the day to come clean about the gambit, mutant. You didn't need to claim your real role/have KittyMo reveal it for you, but you

should

have revealed the gambit at that time. This not only saves Errant's life but also would place me in a tight spot. Maybe, MAYBE we lynch Errant anyway, but if so, we do so after having given the entire collective of the town more time available to analyze the game and find scum.

By removing the clout a full day phase early, you'd have allowed every town player to be in a position where they were thinking. On the day we lynched Errantparabola, we were on autopilot. By coming clean, you'd force players to think. If your life was in danger, you'd always have your trump card, but it was doubtful you'd have been run up anyway. I think this was the key error you made in the game.

COME TIME FOR LYLO:

Awoo, Mylo, something both of you overlooked was that the day before, I indicated I knew mutant was an innocent child. Now, I can understand missing this detail while mutant was still alive since you didn't put the puzzle pieces together, but after he had died, if you went back, you would have seen that I knew he was an IC and thus had a trump card.

Now I feel the need to explain my thought process here.

I didn't explain this in the mafia PT at all. Mostly because when I said I dropped the ball and didn't think of the game at all?

That wasn't a lie

. I didn't know we had gone into night. I had

one hour until the deadline

when I submitted the mutant kill...and EVEN THEN, I did so before immediately doing something else. (I think I was cheating on my girlfriend by squeezing time in to submit the kill and reducing our time together?) It was quick, last minute, and thus I didn't get to explain my process behind it.

The basic process I had was a choice between a no-kill (which, for the second time, I almost defaulted to anyway), or killing mutant. There were reasons to leave mutant alive, and the reasons were much as I argued them to be. With mutant alive, it would take all three town players to lynch me. mutant being the nightkill was something I knew would point to me. mutant was townreading me. mutant's death would expose him as not being a hider, causing you both to reanalyze key parts of the game I didn't want you to be looking at (namely, the N2 no-kill).

However, because mutant could pop the IC at any time, I felt that having that extra voice as conftown, revealing him as not a hider ANYWAY, would have been an issue...in part, because it would take 2/3 town rather than just a single town player to get my game-winning lynch. I also knew that while there was a risk Awoo would reevaluate (I already knew Mylo was going to have some bias towards lynching me), ultimately it was quite likely you'd cross-vote one another, allowing me to hammer Mylo because I didn't want to COMPLETELY betray Awoo by casting a hammer vote on Awoo's lynch.

I ran into a bit of an issue, however.

Both of you stepped up your games and were incredibly obvtown, just in different ways.
I meant what I said about mylo/lylo content not being trustworthy, but that's largely due to what I had to do. I had to step up my game. Prior to you two both putting in obvtowning effort, I was sitting back and waiting. You two actually forced me to play more actively. With me playing more actively, I was playing identically to how I would play as town.

There are a few things I didn't comment on, though. Some of the highlights:

sorry this is my first lylo so i don;t know what proper voting ettiquite is for making the first vote

You need only look to a player from this game, implosion, to explain it: this thread explains the math behind voting in detail. I don't quite remember if it's right play 2/3 times or 3/4 times for town to vote first, but I think it's one of the two.

You deserved your win.

ohhhhh so THAT'S why everyone's scared of scum!mastina...
I'll be back after the ptsd wears off (read: never)

I literally reversed my bleedingheartlockobvtown read on awoo in the dead thread. fuck. very very well played.

I don't think my win is actually that remarkable.

I'm making one hell of a wall post to explain what I was doing, mostly for the benefit of Awoo and Myloninja to understand where I came from, but my view on the matter is that any scum player of a reasonably decent skill level could win this game once Wisdom died. I'm not going to go so far as to say "this was a town loss more than a scum win" (that would place an unfair amount of blame on the town who, overall, I feel

did

play well), but the fact remains, I got really lucky at a couple points in the game (including that Myloninja had been two roles as mafia that served my narrative) and the first time I even needed to use skill was in fact lylo.

Before that, all I had to do was cruise off of the town's mistakes. Which is something most skilled scum players are capable of doing. Awoo had me dead to rights in lylo with the description of "middling town, the level where scum's usually at"; that was

precisely

what I was, and it's something not hard to accomplish. I may have earned the win in the end, but it was mostly by taking advantage of a series of events that happened to leave me openings.

Plus. I said this on D1. Effort != alignment, and as Awoo correctly pointed out, a specific form of that would be aggression != town. I was aggressive, but none of my aggression was actually something which was hard to do.

People are scared of me because I am remarkably good at that, turning what should be a massive disadvantage into a game-winning boon. (For instance, the classical example is Left 4 Dead mafia where I had a cop guilty on me and by claiming scum it ultimately lead to town not believing the cop was real even though it was, compounded by telling my scumbuddies from the onset to bus me with me bussing them back in a time when I had never done that.)

I have a very good handle on what needs to be done to create a pathway to victory. But really, my success first and foremost can be attributed to the right game environment. Just as my skills as a scumhunter vary by the playerlist (get me the right playerlist and I can catch almost every scum, get me the wrong playerlist and I'll be lucky to catch one), so too does my ability to execute a scum win vary by the playerlist. I just got the good fortune of being in one where I happened to have an advantage, compounded by the game mechanic making it easier to take advantage of my natural scum strengths. (By knowing what roles people had held, it made it easier to POE down the town PRs.)

I suppose.

Were I to sum everything up.

It'd be like this.

(

CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING PARAGRAPH MY TL;DR.

)

I don't think town played bad.
I actually think town played well.
I just don't think the scum victory should be attributed to spectacular scumplay; I think the scum victory can be better described as in spite of the town playing well, them lacking what they needed to pull together the win, especially given a few key events which they had bad luck in.

I didn't have 100% faith in town!you.

Oh I know. I play up lylo narratives to my favor though, so arguing you had 100% faith in me was quite convenient to my narrative.

Yeah called it Mastina. You took me out for that reason, or for my claim?

Neither. I took you out because I thought mutant was hiding behind you and I wanted mutant dead for my narrative.

But didn't you already know that mutant was fakeclaiming when he claimed a hide behind you?

Actually, no. This is related to a comment mutant made in the dead thread: Subject: Mini Theme 2017: Encore Dead Chat

Fuck.
Awoo isn't conftown.
I can't tell you the exact question I asked the mod without giving away both the identity and exact role of the "third investigative", but I can do this:

PLAYER WHO TARGETED AWOO:

Ask what'd happen if you targeted Espeonage.
The answer you get won't be what you thought it'd be, which VASTLY changes optimal usage of your role.

I don't think this comes from scum!mastina tbh. If she was scum I doubt she'd try to inform me about this as it would be beneficial to her to allow me to get false positives. If Mastina was scum, she probably would have tried to get me lynched at the beginning of day 6.

I knew, due to mutant's breadcrumb of hiding behind me, that he wasn't a

weak hider

that'd die when hiding behind MAFIA. But I didn't know he wasn't a hider at all.

The reason I asked this question was the obvious; I wanted to know if mutant's clears were really clears. When I learned it was possible they weren't, I shared this information.
Now, mutant, you may wonder why I shared that information in spite of it being used to give me a false innocent on my slot.
The answer is because I valued the mislynches I could gain from it more.

If people assumed your hides were town and you never hid behind me, it'd be...problematic. I'd be guiltied-via-POE for the wrong reasons. If you did hide behind me, it was still a problem because I couldn't kill you until N4 at the earliest due to not doing so N2 and needing to take out the worst's track N3. What that meant is there'd be a lot of hider clears, potentially the whole games' worth, revealing the innocent to not be an innocent

anyway

.

By hoping to expose the role for what it was, I was hoping I'd open up an Awoo (and later, Myloninja) mislynch. Even then, I was planning towards my preferred lylo.

Subject: Mini Theme 2017: Encore Dead Chat

Spoiler: really minor spoiler

there is a death scene flavor written by a mafia member for one of the nightkills

That's actually not a minor spoiler at all; it's a pretty major one given I'm the only one who does that.

LAST NOTES FOR AWOO:

I did mean it when I said that the "LOL"-like posts were dragging you down, and procrastination of the sort you gave by consistently going "sorry I have an exam" also dragged you down. I also feel like you didn't follow your thoughts through, which I feel is directly correlated to the previous. If you had put

just a little more

into this game, then that little bit of extra could have been connecting prior conclusions, where you put the effort into following trains of thought.

You can, several times, close to the truth, and forced me to be on my toes; had you kept up your push rather than letting off on the gas and resting, then it would have been much harder for me to hide. By letting off on the gas, you gave me an opening to appeal to you which I wouldn't have had if you had been operating without my guidance.

LAST NOTES FOR MYLONINJA:

In general, I'd recommend game-wide having a higher level of engagement and contributing more actively. In lylo, you showed what you

could

do; I guarantee you, had you done what you did in lylo across the whole game you could not have been lynched this game at all.

However, specific to the lylo: I feel like you did make yourself obvtown, but I feel like you were dragged down by an over-reliance on meta. Metagaming is a tool, which has its use in a game, but it can't be your

only

tool. If you had focused a little more on

this

game and a little less on

past

games, you may have been able to put some stronger analysis out, and also made some more convincing points by cold logic suggesting you were town.

At the very end, you did bring this analysis, but only after I had actually directly asked you to (and I was scum!). I feel that if you had brought it earlier into the day, that you would have had more success in engaging with Awoo.

In sort,

FOR BOTH OF YOU:

Lylo is tough, and it can be difficult to know what to focus on, but I feel like you both could have engaged with one another

directly

much earlier on than you did. You both wrote cases on one another and you both defended against the cases from one another, but that's not what I meant by engagement. A fair amount of the engagement which happened between the two of you was

guided by me the scum player

; if you had done the engagement WITHOUT me, you'd have held less bias towards thinking I was town.

To get what I mean about engagement. Essentially. What I mean is. By explaining your thoughts and feelings and backing it up with evidence throughout the game, it would have been much easier for you to see the town in one another, especially if you two had realized you were actually thinking two different halves of the correct puzzle.

Myloninja brought up good reasons for me to be scum, but they were different from Awoo's reasons for me to be scum; neither half was, individually, enough to convince you that I was scum, but if they had been combined, you'd have been able to probably realize much of what I laid out, why the things implicating me combined together meant I was the most likely scum.

Just a little bit more communication, active and open, is what I'm getting at here. I feel like given more time to talk and making use of that time to talk, you two could have easily hashed it out to find the answer.

Sorry, I was hoping to give you better feedback than this but as I'm typing this I feel like I'm not giving you what I was hoping to give earlier today, but it'll have to do.

[mastina]

FOR BOTH OF YOU:

Lylo is tough, and it can be difficult to know what to focus on, but I feel like you both could have engaged with one another

directly

much earlier on than you did. You both wrote cases on one another and you both defended against the cases from one another, but that's not what I meant by engagement. A fair amount of the engagement which happened between the two of you was

guided by me the scum player

; if you had done the engagement WITHOUT me, you'd have held less bias towards thinking I was town.

To get what I mean about engagement. Essentially. What I mean is. By explaining your thoughts and feelings and backing it up with evidence throughout the game, it would have been much easier for you to see the town in one another, especially if you two had realized you were actually thinking two different halves of the correct puzzle.

Myloninja brought up good reasons for me to be scum, but they were different from Awoo's reasons for me to be scum; neither half was, individually, enough to convince you that I was scum, but if they had been combined, you'd have been able to probably realize much of what I laid out, why the things implicating me combined together meant I was the most likely scum.

Just a little bit more communication, active and open, is what I'm getting at here. I feel like given more time to talk and making use of that time to talk, you two could have easily hashed it out to find the answer.

Sorry, I was hoping to give you better feedback than this but as I'm typing this I feel like I'm not giving you what I was hoping to give earlier today, but it'll have to do.

Another way to think about engagement:
Engagement isn't so much.
"This is why you're scum, and this is why I'm town".
Engagement is more, "This is what I saw, and this is what I'm seeing".

Thinking in terms of walking people through your thought processes, rather than telling people what the truth is, can help you get what I mean.

During mylo, you were both doing the "this is the truth", and that carried over into a fair amount of lylo. But primarily later into lylo, you shifted gears more into what you needed to be doing of, "This is my thought process, start to finish".

Another way of putting it.
"I'm town because I did this" is less effective than, "When I was doing this, this is how I was going about it and why". Inversely, "I think scum is X because of Y" is less effective than "When I look at X, this is what I am seeing from them and what that tells me is Y".

Open dialog language, essentially, where you are inviting the users to talk to you, to engage, to discuss.
Rather than making just statements/accusations. Most of the cases you wrote earlier (be it in defense or on the offensive) were more statements and accusations.

It is very, very, very hard for scum to fake this process convincingly; it is very, very, very easy for town players to make themselves obvtown by demonstrating it. And the results of demonstrating it are often better mutual understanding, along with collaboration of corroborating points.

By, so to speak, wearing your heart on your sleeve and holding nothing back, you can bring forward your viewpoint and have the best parts of it be picked up by the rest of the town. It's a good skill to have outside of lylo (heck I'd be a much better town player if I could manage it more often than I do), but it's the most crucial skill to have in lylo to overcome biases. Honesty of the highest degree, even if it seems self-defeating to admit you're not sure where to go with your points, or what your points say, or what you need to do.

That's okay! Because by speaking out in that way...maybe you don't need to; maybe the other player(s) will give you direction on where to go, give their own thoughts on what your points say, and point you to something they want you to do.

[mastina]

Btw, another piece of feedback I wanted to give.
Pretty sure I wrote an article on it at some point but I don't remember where so can't track it down, but.

I said in lylo: NEVER cave in to paranoia. 95% of the time, you will lose the game because of paranoia.

However, there's a flip side to the coin.

ALWAYS trust your gut. 90% of the time, it is right.

The problem comes in, in the form of...the two are

almost

indistinguishable from one another. You never want to cave to paranoia because paranoia is most likely wrong and will cost you the game...but you always want to trust your gut because your subconscious mind is MUCH better than the conscious mind at sifting through information and analyzing it. Yet the two look almost identical at a glance.

I'd have to find the full ramble to give the full list of distinguishing features, but it can be boiled down to thinking more or less in these terms:
Listen to what was said by the feeling. Then analyze both sides of it, using the possibility/probability analysis, with a HEAVY emphasis on usage of Occam's Razor:
"Does this have backing?"
If so.
"Does this have backing which isn't contrived and convoluted?"
If so.
"Does this have backing strong enough to rival the alternative which I have previously been assuming?"
This last one doesn't need to be a hard-yes. As long as it's not a hard-no...

investigate the feeling further

.
Because it is, at that point, PROBABLY gut, not paranoia.

This isn't a foolproof guide mind you, but it's a quick cheat sheet to help you out in the future.