Overkill 1: Serenity/Firefly (GAME OVER)

[BuJaber]

WE ARE THE GNOMES THAT SAY NON.

Now 2 people have decided to vote a Mason claim.

I appear to have been put into a ship of crazy people.

Must Update my Captain's log.

Bear in mind RC also claimed to be scum. Can we talk about that? It is definitely conceivable that people would vote for RC day 1. It is doubly so if he also claims scum.

I don't like the AtE in tw's entrance. Like a weird mass-buddying.

Nsg seems townie.

Malak is 100% town for reasons.

The conversation in the middle pages between Cheeky/RC/radically/Tora/Elsa feels off to me. At least one scum there, possibly two. There has definitely been scum-motivated thread inflation going on throughout the game anyway. That part is obvious. I've seen more content in 2 pages than there is in this whole thread. Most of it is petty personal arguing over old reads and an incredibly ovey detailed discussion on Elsa that I'm not sure anyone got anything out of.

RC/Tora are pinging me though can't point to a specific post why. Kinda feel their post count could have been cut in half or even more and they'd have the same level of content

Radically's walls are smaller than they appear.

This is going to be a tough game to read isn't it? Put me with the people who were asleep when all this shit went down.

Also one scum is definitely among the group that didn't post/posted very little. The thread was perfectly fine as it is getting bloated like that. Someone is probably just letting it happen.

VOTE: Tora
Love you.

Tw I'm watching you bud. You ain't winning as scum .

Nsg if you're town I hope we have better synergy than our past.

Pedit - cheeky does seem townie but last time she was town I scumread her I'm pretty sure so I think I might have to look for inverse tells.

[BuJaber]

Why did people townread the toogloo PM reveal thing?
Kind feel he's doing it for towncred. I don't know why he'd care to mention it. No other players felt the need to.

Chika slight scumlean.. her posting feels like just a way to signal her presence so far.


Pedit - tw - you're just a love-filled donut mate
(But you could still be scum and lovable)

[BuJaber]

this post is a townie response to pressure

Can you answer this Captha question please?

7 + 14 - 3 = ?

Pedit:
- cheeky: yeah I'll just hold off on any conclusions on you for now
- RR: yes lol thanks radically is another MS player isn't it. Anyway I disagree with your assessment. I think the hyperposting here is indicative. Not because of quantity alone but because of quality also. Tora, RC, TW I know for a fact can spam a shit ton of townie word vomit. Here it's mostly neutral or just passive. Like there's no obvious effort or motivation yet. I'm voting Tora but I honest have no preference at the time being. I think my scumread and reasoning applies to all 3 of them but I definitely want to make my scumpools smaller. I have the "elsa convo" pool of 5-6 which is huge and the "lurker" pool which I haven't even counted yet. And I'm not saying the elsa thing wasn't useful, I just feel like it was too much and also just felt a little weird to me. Some conversations just don't sound natural. I think that one didn't.
- tw: what about his reaver joke followup? What do you think of it and its timing?

Pedit 2: ehhh.. I don't know how I feel about agreeing with sky but yeah that was kinda townie from Tora.. but only enough to drop him back to null. Tora is adept at the emotional manipulation. VOTE: the worst

[BuJaber]

Actually no let's do this VOTE: RC

[BuJaber]

I don't know how I feel about agreeing with sky

am i that bad of a player? ):

Nope it's just I don't trust you yet.

[BuJaber]

I don't know how to react to this calm and friendly RC

I don't know about Elsa being so clearly town like you seem to believe .. posts are mainly NAI to me.

[BuJaber]

There has definitely been scum-motivated thread inflation going on throughout the game anyway. That part is obvious.

Why is it obviously scum-motivated?

Because it was too focused on just one player. It's day 1 you have no reads you're trying to form them. I understand that most were probably also sorting the other posters in their mind but it wasn't publicly discussed. Only Elsa was publicly discussed.

The only obvious wagon to form was also only 1 and that was on nsg and it fizzled as quickly as it started. In 15 pages I expect more than that from a town-led town, therefore I think there's been some scum-leading.

Like RC and Tora for example were discussing and arguing about Elsa but have been very passively engaging one another. Maybe because they tend to fight, and it's kinda townie of them in theory not to want to go down that route and fill the thread with a personal grudge fight, but in practise I doubt that comes from TvT. Especially when you add 2-3 more people. Like why wasn't there even a real wagon on Elsa, do you know what the conclusion of that discussion was? I honestly can't tell. People just sort of stopped.

If I'm arguing with you but I haven't really figured out whether or not I scumread you I'm kinda wasting my time because you could just be scum. It would be equally, or possibly more, important to sort you first then continue discussing the other person (Elsa in this game)

[BuJaber]

fantastic mod (and I loved both A50 and ruru before learning they're the same person!)

Look how good tw is at faking being genuine

[BuJaber]

Letting others lead the town for now while I decide what I need to do during the Night phase.

Mighty big of you

[BuJaber]

Sorry I couldn't resist having that be its own post.

I'd be glad to see you take a leadership role here. At the very least it will make reading you easier.

[BuJaber]

Page 18 VC:

votecount

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Toranaga (3):	RadiantCowbells (350),	Reasonably Rational (363),	the worst (419),
TPFKAP (1):	Flicker (63),
Flicker (1):	northsidegal (153),
Skygazer (1):	Toranaga (330),
the worst (1):	Skygazer (380),
RadiantCowbells (1):	BuJaber (384),
Not voting (9):	Toogeloo,	NicoRobin,	TPFKAP,	Chickadee,	Thor665,	randomidget,	Malakittens (90),	Elsa Jay (291),	CheekyTeeky (408),

(expired on 2018-10-16 02:00:00) remain.

Votes on RR right now page 20:

Toogeloo, Tora, Cheeky, tw, Nico, Elsa -- L-3
RC voted and unvoted.

Pedit : add Thor to that

[BuJaber]

Give an example of a good reason

[BuJaber]

Guys I'm pretty sure Tor is scum.

why don't you give me a reason? so far you're just calling me scum for nothing

My reason is that I've played enough with you to know you're better than this and you take a more aggressive stance which inadvertently leaves you leading the town. You're sheeping, tmi'ing, and not bouncing reads off me at all, which you do when you think I'm town.

Literally the best reason for a scumread I've ever heard from someone on D1 because people suck at mafia. Well, honestly, the first sentence is something I 100% agree with. I'm not certain the tmi'ing is bad, and I have no idea about the bouncing ideas off you, but yeah. The inadvertent leadership through being vocal and aggressive is in character, and doesn't really seem present yet.

Sorry TW, maybe pressure here first for me kthx.

VOTE: Toranaga

Why is this vote the only one not signed by cerb?
Why have we heard the thoughts of only 1 head of the hydra so far?
He agrees he's verbose but like why? How much is he actually saying?

If he was only 1 person I'd be pushing for a hammer already because town or scum flip there is 1000% guarantee scum are on this wagon. But I want to wait for drixx.

Though to be fair hammer here would be a scum claim so L-1 is tempting... but maybe scum still sacrifice themselves for the quickhammer.

[BuJaber]

This is my first game with the "scum win when all town is dead" mechanic but in my mind I'm thinking they'd be willing to take more risks as they probably have more power than normal.

[BuJaber]

if thats the case on RR it really doesnt seem solid in anyway at all
i'm after a convincing argument for rr being scum basically. linking to a post where it was previously explained is fine.

All I know is that I have a vague non-case on him. I'm sorting people by PoE. It's how I usually approach day 1.

He was part of what I consider a conversation that was far too long for imo measly returns. (Elsa discussion)

And now he is getting flashwagoned and I need to see him flip so I know if I'm looking for scum bussing or scum lynching town among the pool of his voters.

So for me it's not that I'm interested in lynching RR specifically, just more of an opportunity to progress the game in a guaranteed positive way.

Not all lynches are equal in their value. This is a pretty valuable lynch.

Pedit: that deserves its own post

[BuJaber]

This is my first game with the "scum win when all town is dead" mechanic but in my mind I'm thinking they'd be willing to take more risks as they probably have more power than normal.

This is a very flawed mechanical argument. The lack of a parity win/loss means that town also *must* have a means by which they could remove all scum even when outnumbered by a single faction(or that all scum are essentially SK's, single slots working individually to destroy the Serenity and its crew, which could make sense thematically). In either case, "overpowered" scum are not a necessity. To be fair, it's possible that A50 is simply okay with scum quickhammering a couple days in a row once they achieve parity, and there are no special mechanical things that required this unusual win condition, but I don't think it's likely.

-Cerb

Right that's fair but I think this additional power to town is a consequence of the setup mechanics and not the root cause.

Like scum are powerful -> they need to kill more -> town can win when outnumbered.


I think the requirement of additional kills is very townsided by itself. There has to be a reason for it. I think you give them power to win because you're mechanically forced to as the mod if you choose to have such a win condition, but I don't think it's the reason for the condition.

I have no proof for this just my speculation on how the setup came to be.

The divided scum idea of yours is interesting and you are absoluteky right that scenario would explain the additional kill requirement, but wouldn't that by itself be strongly in favor of scum? Sure they will shoot/lynch each other eventually but they are also statistically likely to shoot a tonne of townies in the early game. Though I really don't even see that as being likely because the 3 lylo would suck for all 3 remaining players and basically means one person game throws.

[BuJaber]

VOTE: BuJaber

I don't like how he's shading RR without voting them and trying to push through a lynch so quickly when we have more than 13 days left to make a decision. I also know from having followed much of Secret Hitler that he can seem really towny and reasonable while actually being top scum (i.e. Hitler).

To be fair, I'm at L-2 now, and they expressed awareness of the risk of putting me at L-1.

-Cerb

If, in 10 days or whatever, they don't return to a push on me because they believe that I'm the optimal lynch for what amounts to information purposes, or at least explain exactly why someone else is a superior lynch, in a similar fashion to the way they've said I should be lynched, then you should be suspicious.

-Cerb

Generous of you to give me 10 days. I should hope you'll have your answer sooner.

Tora I can't focus at all right now.. where's the contradiction in Elsa's post?

[BuJaber]

Is this normal for thor?

Like he's doing nothing but the argumentative for no reason tone is striking me as very townie.

I'm pretty sure we've played together but I don't remember his post style at all. :/

[BuJaber]

Generous of you to give me 10 days. I should hope you'll have your answer sooner.

Tora I can't focus at all right now.. where's the contradiction in Elsa's post?

I'm making a joke but elsa is sort of softclaiming third party a bit this game. read the parts I bolded.

I can see why you'd think that but I think you're reading into it. Like I very highly doubt she's 3rd party. Keep it simple.

What is your opinion on RC this game right now? Just say whatever comes to mind every thought you have about him.

Pedit.. bah I'll read and respond separetely if I have anything to say

[BuJaber]

Not this whole game, Cerb. just until I find the right allies to stick with. right now since Tora is nice Imma be on his side.

since you all might feel it later, I claim Neutral Doctor. apparently with all the kill mechanics I was necessary.

P-Edit: well I might be losing a friend soon. soooo.....

Who wants heals?

You could have waited like for one post at least before absolutely destroying my point.

Also sorry about the pronouns to everyone. I know I made a mistake already with Elsa. I'm bound to make more. I'll do my best not to.

[BuJaber]

Elsa you and I are going to have a big fucking laugh at the end of the game. Remind me.

Here's my issue with RR and why I'm having difficult reading him/them directly: the tone and demeanor just feels townie.. but there's like actually very little in the way of reads except that thing about how I'm not suspicious atm but I might be later which is not actually a read.

Like I'm getting strong townie vibes but everytime I read the actual posts I think 'well he's just stating things that are pretty much neutral or that he believes as facts.' Those are the types of arguments that both town and scum alike can have while being completely genuine.

I am more sure that there's scum on his wagon than I am sure of any read I have this game. Except for maybe Malak who's town.

Tora feels townie but like he's 40% Tora right now. Just feels like he hasn't shifted yet into high gear or he's tired.

Sky I'm starting to like.

Flicker is obviously wrong about me but not sure if that's AI. However her early reads are kinda weird to me. But she used the cop out of saying it's anywhere from 1-100% strength which makes it nice and non-commital. Like what are you townreading Chick for already? Tw? Toogle?

RC is pretty quiet for RC. And he claimed scum. And he's not fighting Tora. And he was part of the elsa discussion. And he voted and unvoted RR. And I don't like how people make excuses for him just because he does weird shit to protect his scumgame or get reactions or whatever. If he wants reactions give him one. That is the correct procedure. Like he says it's wrong to just policy him or suspect him just because he's good at scum, but also don't go to the other extreme where you ignore scummy things he does just because he might have a reason to do so as town. You don't know he's town yet.

Why does this feel like a micro? Am I gonna go to bed and wake up to 100 pages?

[BuJaber]

Micro was an exaggeration point was to say I expect more active posters than what we have for a large game.

[BuJaber]

Oh yeah and nsg.. explain nsg townread also please flicker.. because nsg is bordering on her lurky scum meta right now

[BuJaber]

Wait if a hammer is reached by votes but VC script doesn't count it/catch it.. is it a hammer or is the VC the only truth?

Because this sounds like an open invitation for all sorts of fake hammering, voting without voting, and general perception-manipulation

[BuJaber]

Sky I'm starting to like.

Y

Feels like she's trying to push forward based on her own reads and actively sort. Doesn't feel like someone who's looking for or waiting for clues on how the 'group' will act.

Oh yeah and nsg.. explain nsg townread also please flicker.. because nsg is bordering on her lurky scum meta right now

you realise NSG exists outside of mafia right and it's been like.... less than 24 hours and her posting was way outside of her scum meta and she hasn't been gone that long right....

eh I think this mistake is towny

My perception of time is terrible in mafia games. Fine, she's null. Do you think there's enough for flicker to get a townread off her posts? Felt premature
Also do you think we ought to townread you here so far?

If you are convinced that Elsa is saying the truth then a policy lynch on him on day 1 is bad. Right now he is not a threat. Right now it's in his best interest to side with town. It's in our best interest to kill scum. Even if the chance for hitting scum is small, it's better than a 0 chance. You don't get rid of an asset before you've utilized it.
You want to vote for Elsa, tell us why his claim is bs.

Ftr I think tw may have a point wrt his claim, though overall I believe him more than I doubt him because it's kind of a stupid gambit for scum.

Consider it this way: It was obvious he was trying to crumb

something

. It was obvious his claim was pre-meditated and not reactionary. Therefore if it is a fake claim there must be a reason for choosing this specific claim. What does scum!elsa want to gain from outing the claim so early and without any real pressure on him?
If you don't have an answer then she's not lying. Therefore her flip has 0% chance of flipping scum.

[BuJaber]

I scumread him but I'm not sure if he's scum or if I just don't like him voting me.

You don't like me voting you.

Cause you're scum.

And if you're not this is a bad reason to scumread me and you know it.

[BuJaber]

Players:

Toogeloo - weird posting. No clear motive. If he keeps it up might become too scummy to be scum. I'd rather he didn't.

the worst - I want to townread him but that would be too easy. It's never easy with tw.

NicoRobin - if scum have a lurker, it's Nico.

RadiantCowbells - probably scum for reasons I have stated so far.

Toranaga - probably town but I'll never be sure if he continues to post like he's tired.

TPFKAP - needs to post. Maybe scum have 2 lurkers actually. Though 2 lurkers + RC team doesn't make sense because who wouldn't want RC as his scum buddy. But if they are lurking might explain why RC doesn't seem that interested in this game.

Chickadee - I have once played with and incorrectly scumread Chick. If she doesn't live past day 1, I likely won't get a read on her.

Flicker - townreads feel like TMI, scumreading me feels like shading in a 'look how cautious I am' sort of way. But if I'm biased on any read it's this one. Because like I haven't townread anything they've posted so far and that's weird.

Thor665 - seems like he's playing a boxing match not mafia. Apparently it's not AI according to Tora.

BuJaber - is one of the gnomes that say non

CheekyTeeky - she's cheeky and she's teeky. I dunno why but gut says town.

Skygazer - townreading for reason stated in previous post

Elsa Jay - 97% sure she's neutral doctor.

Reasonably Rational - Rationally Neutral. Might be a robot.

Malakittens - Town

randomidget - I don't think they've posted

northsidegal - I thought was absent for longer than she's been absent. Null right now. Probably easier to read through other people. Supposedly there's a creature-level activity tell on her but that's an easy thing to take advantage of. Also unless they were meming I'm pretty sure someone has nominated her for being good at scum and she does have an impressive win record so I don't really buy this tell much. (In the sense that her lurking is very likely a scum tell, but her NOT lurking is not a town tell)

[BuJaber]

That's been my major basis for Tor scum ftr

Feel like he saw Elsa claim multiball and assumed they were his opposition and tried to hard seem pocketed to avoid crosskill

This makes sense for both scum!Elsa and neutral!Elsa so why are you scumreading him? Talk me through how scum!Elsa endgames here with a day 1 claim of neutral doc.

Unless you think we'll fail to catch all other scum before we get around to lynching Elsa.

[BuJaber]

Okay that was easy.

Who else is scumreading me?

[BuJaber]

Can we wagon Tora? I have a good reason.

~D

What is it?

IMO we should let the argument resolve itself naturally. They're both good at scum and using AtE. It's easier to sort them while they fight than when they're not.

If one of you guys feels it's too much replace out for your health and benefit. But I for one am rooting for the argument to continue.


Pedit : guess I'm too late

[BuJaber]

The replace out invalidates this thought... but considering there's daychat this could have been a distancing ploy.

So now we're left with
TvT
TvS
SvS of different factions


It's good because I've seen tora AtE twice. When he was town the first time I had his slot and another slot and I eventually made the right lynch by reading his quickfire emotional posting.

The 2nd time he was scum and I scumread him and I was cop and checked him and got my confirmation.

[BuJaber]

Not to mention that literally every single one of you would make more mistakes while pissed off than when you're not. So if one of them is scum it'd be harder to hide it when they're genuinenly pissed off like they so obviously are.

[BuJaber]

RC's read of cheeky makes so much more sense now.

Join my wagon idiot scum join my wagon.

Link me your paypal I'll pay all scum 5 bucks to join my wagon.

[BuJaber]

Treating RC and tora like they're a couple of china teacups. They're both grownups who know what to do if shit gets too far.

I didn't say anything wrong. Just that their arguing is good because it makes them easier to read.

[BuJaber]

Let's lynch RC and when he flips scum we can lynch one of the Tora voters.

Plenty of reasons to scumread RC, and yet he gets pissed off at Tora specifically after he scumreads. Dude knew he could get him to argue.

RC claimed scum. Policy lynchable.

Then he pressed Tora until he engaged him in a fight.

Then when Tora replaced out he did. Because he would have lost the empathy votes.

[BuJaber]

Consider this:
Let's say town!RC really did think it made sense for scum!Elsa to fakeclaim 3p doc. Shitty claim if you ask me, but maybe it's in Elsa's scum range. So far fine.
Then town!RC also thinks it makes sense for scum!Tora to leash himself onto scum!Elsa fake claiming 3p doc. Which is like what kind of scum would think that's a good idea. But let's assume that makes sense.
Town!RC thinks all of this is plausible and then thinks the correct way to resolve it is to vote Cheeky and state a weird activity tell on RR.

Yeah that makes total sense.

[BuJaber]

I'm factoring that in.

Posts don't read like someone expecting people to react to him negatively.
It also doesn't explain why if he's doing this for reactions he didn't question the Tora votes.
It also doesn't explain why he'd replace out especially when the fight looked to be over.

Tora asking to replace out is taking the high road.. town or scum. It would have ended the fight. There was no need for RC to rep out.

[BuJaber]

like this was RC genuinely being upset here too btw

Ftr I like both of these guys even though I've only recently gotten to really know them. I don't want either of them to misinterpret this.

But in the game it doesn't matter. RC may be acting or he may be genuinenly upset. If he is genuinenly upset it doesn't automatically make him town. He can get upset as scum, especially when it's Tora he's arguing with.

[BuJaber]

What's chick's scum meta?
Because she's been jumping from wagon to wagon and I don't know how scummy she looks on the surface as scum.

[BuJaber]

And Jaber, shush. It's okay. The votes on you dont mean auto hang yet.l

Hmm?

[BuJaber]

Flavor question: (I can look it up but it might be better to have it publicly in here) who are Serenity's allies? What is the hierarchy of Serenity? What about their allies?

[BuJaber]

Yep, Tor was my first vote.

So please point out my wagon jumping.

Sorry I mistook you for cheeky. Cheeky was the one wagon jumping.

The replace out invalidates this thought... but considering there's daychat this could have been a distancing ploy.

So now we're left with
TvT
TvS
SvS of different factions


It's good because I've seen tora AtE twice. When he was town the first time I had his slot and another slot and I eventually made the right lynch by reading his quickfire emotional posting.

The 2nd time he was scum and I scumread him and I was cop and checked him and got my confirmation.

Thoughts here?

Yes this answers your question.

[BuJaber]

Nsg I did have those thoughts as town.

If mala is town primarily for RC's read on him why am I not town for the same reason?

Thanks flicker.. that was not as helpful as I thought. Especially with A50 coming in and reemphasizing that flavor spec will lead to no where.

[BuJaber]

I kinda townread Tora switching to a hydra account.

So that plus my earlier thoughts on RC and him.. let's please lynch scum RC slot.

Damn it whatever.. you all can wait 4 day phases to reevaluate chara.

VOTE: flicker

[BuJaber]

Ah yeah that's worth a vote.. why did I not speak about Tora at all this game and only state that one weird read on him based on something in RL. Stupid me.

+1 wagon jump to the counter.

[BuJaber]

Just checking in.

Still not changing my vote unless I'm required to break a tie.

I do have the reverse opinion of BuJaber and suspect that the Tor replacement into a Hydra might have been tactical. Skimmed most the rest of the game since my last post and don't have anything else significant to add.

What would be tactical about it?

[BuJaber]

I think you're being overly sheepy. I haven't felt like you've hsd enough original reads. Several times you've stated you'll just trust x's read on y or saying you agree with the reasons x gave for reading y etc.
And I'm noting that you're doing a lot of wagon jumping without giving much reasoning.
Does it make sense for you to be partners with RC is what I'm debating. Because independently I scumread both of you. But like does it make sense in a large for you two to interact so much as scum in day 1?

[BuJaber]

Yeah I'm thinking TvS is much more likely. Him getting annoyed at you feels genuine. His whole reaction to the argument with Tora and then you and then repping out doesn't make a lot of sense if you're his partner.

I guess S v different faction S might be possible.

So tell me why are you townreading RC atm?

[BuJaber]

It's that easy to townread RC?

[BuJaber]

Well then I can't tell who's scum and who's town this game because my reads are different than everyone's apparently.

Tora, Mala town
Elsa 3p
RC, cheeky, flicker, scum

RR probably town after our interaction

Sky and tw feel townie so far. Nsg is meh but not lurking. Rest are null.

[BuJaber]

I've seen people scumread RC for bs reasons but now he's being super scummy everyone townreads him..

[BuJaber]

BuJaber are you just skim reading the thread because your minicase on me only makes sense if you're not reading properly. Your reads are extremely surface level and whilst you feign frustration at not being able to sort the RC slot you suddenly jump on Flicker without reason.

Extremely surface level okay

I'm not frustrated for not being able to sort RC. I'm frustrated that because he replaced nobody is going to want to lynch chara now. And the slot will live until at least tomorrow.

[BuJaber]

I'd rather be insulted personally than have my reads be called extremely surface level actually.. this is some extreme undermining of my though process.

[BuJaber]

Yes
Tor was acting very passively and not posting very much at the beginning. Which is a bit weird for him. The way RC and he interacted at the start is a bit different than what I used to like they just didn't want to deal with other this game. So I had this theory maybe they're scum together or at the very least Tora is scum and not really interested in solving the game hence the passiveness/low posting.

But then Elsa's claim comfirmed what Tora was saying and like maybe he did actually see something we didn't. Doesn't feel like he'd be so obvious about having insider information so at this time I started to feel maybe he's town but I wasn't very confident.

When Tora and RC started fighting I became more confident thay Tora is town and he was being genuine the whole time. Regardless the fight told me one thing with absolute confidence and that's that they're not both on the same scumteam if this multiball. But also fairly confident that Tora is town.

RC read: the fight and the rep out was just the cherry on top the pile of scumminess he's been building. Starting from the scum claim to not engaging Tora to then shading and scumreading Tora. Also some of his stances didn't make sense and he voted and unvoted RR (pretty sure somebody on the early RR wagon is scum if not 2).


Pedit: who's not reading now. Why are you reading only my last pages? I'm giving naked reads on these 2 because I've talked about them a lot already

[BuJaber]

Okay whatever let's see how chara plays

[BuJaber]

I can't explain my case better. If you don't get it you don't get it. I need help to convince you. That comes either from me having new things to say via Chara's actions or if someone else scumreads the slot and explains it better.

Or you're scum and there's no point in arguing.

I've argued to the point of replacing out twice. I'm starting to realize the signs of a dead end argument.

[BuJaber]

I've argued to the point of replacing out twice. I'm starting to realize the signs of a dead end argument.

Then how can you not see from a townRC pov??

I wasn't town both those times.

Scum also replace out in frustration.

[BuJaber]

As in I was town once and scum once. Replacing out should not be the basis for a read. You might guess at and try to explain it but ultimately if you don't have other reasons to townread or scumread the player replacing out then you shouldn't read them based on the replace out.

[BuJaber]

I think the roles are very tied to flavor, though I have no solid proof of that at the moment.

A50 pretty much confirmed this

[BuJaber]

@A50

would you define the flavour of this game as contributory towards alignment?

Why do you think the flavour was [

redacted

]?

will scum be given fakeclaims / knowledge of flavours which are or are not in the game?

You mean, like.. "You may claim

[full flavour will be revealed upon your flip or at the end of the game]

?".

[BuJaber]

Oh god NSG is scummy...

how?

Tone. Stiff. Forced. Gut.

Will let you breathe for now I trust RCs read on you so it'll become more obvious with time.

{Mala}
{BuJaber, Flicker, Chick, RC, Reasonably Rational, Toogeloo}
{NicoRobin}
{NSG, Skygazer, TheWorst}
{Elsa, Toranaga}

Zero posters: Randomidget, Thor*, TPFKAP.

*only one to have confirmed.

VOTE: Reasonably reasonable

VOTE: bujaber

876 is eh

Agree.

VOTE: BuJaber

Yes stay Tor.

@TW - these are the kind of posts that are giving me a sheepy vibe from Cheeky.

Sky's posting has been underwhelming.

I thought we were done with the unnecessary talk about Elsa... but here we are back to page 6ish shenanigans.

[BuJaber]

With Elsa, Nancy Drew and RR taking up most of the posts I'm thinking theres definitely scum lurking. Because I don't think any of those 3 are scum. Like I haven't been impressed with RR's analysis of people so far, and they're way too focused on Elsa and general setup/role things but sheer postcount and sort of picking unnecessary and stupid fights doesn't seem like it comes from scum.

I'm fine assuming cheeky is town for now ftr. When I went looking for the sheepy posts I saw that her ISO is better than I remember.

Not that I'm sure of my townread on you yet tw.

VOTE: TFPKAP

[BuJaber]

If you're saying we should wagon toogle I can get on board, though he's a bit 'too scummy to be scum' atm and he doesn't strike me as a noob.

But I intentionally did not want to vote say flicker anymore because I think I can get a more confident read with time, just like I did with RR.

So yeah right now vote on an inactive seems very good. Until people drop their townread on RC slot anyway.

[BuJaber]

For what it's worth I think both lurker wagons would be good for us, especially now that there's been some back and forth from the people on each wagon.

But people townreading TFPKAP already are lying to themselves.

There's nothing there. There's nothing in Nico's ISO


The difference between RR and them is in addition to what I've already said, he's engaging with people and keeping up with his word vomit. And I see it is a very excessively exhausting way to maintain fake towncred if that's what he's going for. He could fake reads and post less and choose to engage people selectively instead of doing this. He's being brazenly rediculously irrelevant and attracting attention like a magnet. Also the early wagon on him was weird and I'm fairly confident one or more of the voters were scum. I'd rather first get some scum flips before starting to consider the possibility of some sort of SvS wagon.


So RR is likely town, one or both of Nico/TFKPAP are likely scum.

[BuJaber]

Is that a typo? Did you mean scumreads or townreads?

[BuJaber]

I find it strange that you persist in maintaining this position when I've been rather quiet the last 48 hours or so. Why aren't you suspicious of me, if that early play is, as you said, excessively exhausting? I would expect someone who believes that to expect us to slow down if scum, which is something we've done.

Well if you

were

doing it just for the towncred then it doesn't make sense for you to stop doing it and risk losing one of the very few people you've potentially pocketed (me). So actually this gives my townread more credibility, not less.

[BuJaber]

I think someone asked what info can be gained from lynching Elsa.

People can still have stances on other reads and lynch the claimed scum, plus night brings in a lot of information as well which almost always substantiates previous positions or opens new avenues of discussion.

The game is designed to try and prevent swing, but that doesnt mean it isnt possible, and if town loses too many members before scum loses even one, Elsa automatically becomes a non facto member of the scum team. Lynching her later in the game is still a mislynch in the eyes of the mafia team.

Sure we'd have his reads. But they wouldn't mean anything. It would be the same information wise as knowingly mislynching townie. We wouldn't get any associative reads to work with.

I agree Elsa does not make it to end game, but now is not the time to kill him.

+1

Chick, very likely town here.

Toog, probably unintentional scumsiding town. Lol

Why? Why not just straight up scum? Why go for the complicated answer instead of the simple one?

[BuJaber]

Mala I would love to hear about the relevance of TPFKAP's identity as Porkens.

I don't think it's AI or anything but I really like this question and would also like answer.

[BuJaber]

@chara - how well do you know RC? How well do you know Tora? What do you think of my reads on Tora and your slot?

[BuJaber]

Toogaloogaloog
Elsa
GEmerald
Thor
Cheeky
Toraganate
Skygazer
TPFKAP
NR
Chara
Chick

Does this mean you think all of these are townies? Or are these all the non-null reads?

[BuJaber]

Yes but he's saying he wants to hear about/wants RR to poke people NOT on that list. It implies that if you're on the list he's sorted you already.

It's a very strange post if you ask me. It's oddly specific yet very vague at the same time and reading it actually tells me nothing about where his reads lie. It's literally just a list of some of the players.

[BuJaber]

I think I can read RC fairly well.
I can probably read RC better.
I don't think their argument was TvT. I think your slot is scum and Tora's is town.

[BuJaber]

And hopefully town agrees that we HAVE to make Toogeloo talk about other relevant topics then "hang 3p autoscum hehe let me not think about legitimate scum".

How do you suggest we do that?

[BuJaber]

I think I can read RC fairly well.
I can probably read

RC

Tora better.
I don't think their argument was TvT. I think your slot is scum and Tora's is town.

[BuJaber]

I think I can read RC fairly well.
I can probably read RC better.
I don't think their argument was TvT. I think your slot is scum and Tora's is town.

I dunno, ISOing RC/Tora interactions makes me think it’s just too hostile not to be. Tell me why you disagree?

~Nancy

Because there are other reasons to scumread RC. Such as the scum claim.

Because they didn't start fighting from the beginning like they usually do. Only when Tora started getting active and defending Elsa hard did RC start shit up with him. Ignoring the emotional aspect of the argument, because RC is in better control of his emotions and better at explaining himself, if you look at what they're saying Tora is the one in the right here. Town!RC is smart enough to see that. Tora did have a point regarding Elsa, and more importantly their play really doesn't make sense if they were partners. Tora would know how TMI it would look. So RC doubling down on his scumread of Tora like that is pretty suspicous.

In BlazBlu crosstag game that just finished town!RC got into it with town!Tora. Town tora replaced. RC didn't feel the need to replace in his stead.

This time they were a little hesistant to engage each other and then they did and it just feels so different and RC's conclusions on Tora and Elsa don't make sense to me.

[BuJaber]

BuJaber: your analysis in the last post ignores RC's ego.

So you think he would continue a losing battle?

Imo Tora was eventually going to win that fight. Particularly with how rep-outs seem to be townread on this site.

[BuJaber]

Here's my issue with RR and why I'm having difficult reading him/them directly: the tone and demeanor just feels townie.. but there's like actually very little in the way of reads except that thing about how I'm not suspicious atm but I might be later which is not actually a read.

Like I'm getting strong townie vibes but everytime I read the actual posts I think 'well he's just stating things that are pretty much neutral or that he believes as facts.' Those are the types of arguments that both town and scum alike can have while being completely genuine.

have you played with Rational? this is pretty standard for them, especially day 1. they rarely give reads on the first day.

I have not, good to know.

I've moved to a a fairly confident townread since. You'll read it when you're not.

[BuJaber]

Lol Tor why are teasing us so much.. just speak your bloody mind already

VOTE: flicker
7 it is. Claim please and let's see if this wagon is full of hot air.

I think d1 lynch should be one of {flicker, TFP, Nico}

[BuJaber]

Lol Tor why are teasing us so much.. just speak your bloody mind already

VOTE: flicker
7 it is. Claim please and let's see if this wagon is full of hot air.

I think d1 lynch should be one of {flicker, TFP, Nico}

what happened to the scumread on me?

I'll try to negotiate +7 vote power from the mod and I'll get back to you.

For the record I think those are more informative lynches than yours. Your slot pretty much everyone apart from me townreads can't tell the townies from the scummsters apart.

[BuJaber]

Like I suspected, flicker wagon was a bullshit wagon nobody actually wanted to commit to.

Chara: yeah I expect Tora and RC to fight as soon as they disagree on anything. They're not just any random 2 people.

[BuJaber]

Votes on RR right now page 20:

Toogeloo, Tora, Cheeky, tw, Nico, Elsa -- L-3
RC voted and unvoted.

Pedit : add Thor to that

Set of people who joined RR wagon: {Toog, Tora, Cheeky, TW, Nico, Elsa, RC, Thor}

Set of people who joined flicker wagon: {nsg, Chick, RR, cheeky, Chara, Elsa, me, Toog}

Intersect: {Toog, Cheeky, RC/Chara, Elsa}

Definitely scum among the intersect.
Doesn't mean everyone else on the wagons is town but there's scum here for sure.
Besides this list will be helpful again with RR/Flicker flips.


And there's still the issue of TFP and Nico not really doing anything.

Toog answer this simple question: do you think Elsa will endgame as scum?

For those paying attention Toog has had one really solid stance: that we need to lynch Elsa. EVERY SINGLE OTHER VOTE of his was on the popular wagon of the time. We talked a lot about the definitions of lurking when it comes to TFP and Nico but nobody seems to put Toog in that list. Has anyone actually read his ISO? You can do it while sipping your morning cup of coffee.. it's that short.

If you guys still refuse to see how RC/Chara slot is questionable at best, let's lynch Toog instead.


Consider my vote on both

VOTE: Chara

Also I'm going to forego my ego this time and say I probably can't read gamma very well.. or more accurately, I need a LOT of posts from gamma to be able to sort him, so it might come too late in the game.
So for the time being can I get a list of people who have experienced BOTH his town game and scum game?

[BuJaber]

Like I suspected, flicker wagon was a bullshit wagon nobody actually wanted to commit to.

To clarify, this means that a) flicker is town or b) scum DEFINITELY bussed.

Like when you have a bullshit wagon on a slot that later flips scum you can pretty much guarantee that scum bussed.

But in most cases it points to the slot being town because scum would join it and then be able to make a choice whether they want to whiteknight it if town aren't sure about lynching it or they get an easy mislynch by pushing a popular wagon. Whiteknighting is less suspicious when you actually vote the wagon and THEN 'change your mind' based on reactions/claim etc.

[BuJaber]

any random group of four is going to have scum more likely than not unless you believe there to be less than four scum so I don't think it's a very meaningful statement anyway

Thanks for reducing all my work to a 'random group of four'.

[BuJaber]

Malak how do you read me?

[BuJaber]

The thread is not active enough. Despite the fact that half of your content posts have been complaining about how people were talking too much and were probably scum inflating the thread.

Yes posting =/= content. There was no content when they were inflating the thread, hence it was scum inflating the thread.

And I stand by my position on RC v Tora. If you disagree good for you. You can hand out cookies to all of us and we can all be pleasant to each other and let scum win.
As for me I'd like to sort people and then I can be my normal nice self after the game. I am always careful not to insult the people playing even if I may insult their play. I don't think I crossed any lines.

It is absolutely correct that it is easier to sort RC and Tora when they are heated than when they are not. You're lying to yourself if you don't think so. It's not even specific to these 2. It's pretty much easier to sort ANYONE when they're heated because they have less filtration/time to think between the reactive thought and the posting.

That's why scum 'flailing' is one of the more common scumtells when a scum player is about to be lynched.

The rest of your post just disagrees with my process and that's whatever. I don't post my thoughts to get people to sheep my opinion. I do it so I can ISO myself later, and to gauge reactions, and to help me narrow down a scum pool from All players > some players > small group > possible scum teams, it's a game-long process because it adapts to new information presented. When I focus on the person that I'm voting that's when I might try to shepherd voters to join me. It really depends on how confident I am, how I view the influence I have on the game. Sometimes I'll just prove myself right at the end of the game and it's their choice if they want to improve themselves to learn from it and accept different viewpoints and approaches to the game. Because at the end of the game I look at the game and evaluate where I could have communicated more persuasively and where I failed as that is my weakest part of my town game: communication.

I don't know what the weakest part of my scum game is.. it's still in the development stage. Trying new things and finding a comfortable zone/range.

[BuJaber]

Malak how do you read me?

[BuJaber]

TPF - are you saying you don't believe Elsa's 3p claim?

[BuJaber]

Well then I'd be wrong.

But I've made it clear I TR RR and flicker's claim kinda seems townie (though tbh it's not enough to outweigh the earliet scumminess) so my analysis is assuming they're both town because of these reads. Also these weren't wagons people joined to actually lynch them. They were bs wagons. That's why I chose those 2 specifically and not any other wagons. I don't think all the people who voted for these 2 were intending to unvote but I think some people definitely did. And it's those I find really suspicious. I think in most cases town join wagons that have scum equity even if the main reason for voting is for pressure or info you know? Like a townie doesn't go in thinking 'this probably flips town but I'll join it to see what happens'. If the slot is null or a scumlean then yes maybe. So like townies would not go in there EXPECTING the wagon to fizzle and die. Scum would.

But I wasn't able to discern this kind of motive just from the posting / reasoning they're voting alone because like everyone claimed they have a scumread of varying degrees on RR and flicker.

So I felt like I had to look for something less direct. I figured the people who voted then unvoted on BOTH wagons would likely contain scum because scum are more likely to be consistent in their approach than town.

[BuJaber]

Like all I care about is finding that first scum flip. After that the scumhunting process has a bit more depth to it.

So like me not including someone in the intersect doesn't mean they aren't scummy, but there's enough there to believe that there is scum in the intersect and to try and figure which one of them it is so that we achieve this scum flip.

[BuJaber]

So like townies would not go in there EXPECTING the wagon to fizzle and die. Scum would.

What? Why? To hide the fact that they're mislynching someone? Isn't it in scum's best interest to mislynch town rather than hope the wagons fizzle out? If they were afraid of mislynching wouldn't they just vanity wagon elsewhere?

I'm confused.

No it's because d1 quicklynches rarely happen, they know if an early wagon got some steam they don't have to really make up a big case to vote there because it won't end up getting hammered. To actually go ahead and mislynch you need to actually push for a wagon and see it through, which means you have to actually present a case on it and continue to push it.

The other reason is to PR hunt. The more wagons they can get close to hammering, even if they don't get their mislynch they will probably get a claim out of it. It's win-win for them.

Town don't care about either of those things. They are less likely to join a wagon just for the lols. A townie joining a wagon has to justify it for themselves. Is there a benefit to it or not, will it help lynch scum or help you identify scum?

[BuJaber]

As for Jingle I don't know I didn't really get a chance to sort tw before the rep-out. I don't like that she seems to scumread me mainly for the way I play as that part constituted the bigger chunk of her case. I don't know if she actually believes there's any scum motivation there. Because playstyle isn't a reason to scumread someone. And the RC thing.. what does she imagine I gain as scum from a solo push on RC/chara? What does she think I gain as scum from publicly stating that we were better off with the fight to continue WHEN I SAID THAT AT A TIME THE FIGHT WAS DYING OFF. If I wanted to create a toxic situation why wouldn't I egg it on earlier? Why would I, as someone who knows that Tora and RC get on each others' nerves, wouldn't have tried to get them to fight in the first place?

But it actually takes a lot of effort to catchup and make up a case like that especially on someone who despite always getting scumread to some extent, hasn't been mislynched on d1 very often.

So I actually find it scummier that toog, chick, chara and you seemed to agree that her case is actually good.

Calling that a good case and indirectly encouraging more bad cases like that is scummier than presenting the case itself.

[BuJaber]

Both cases are decent enough - people should pick one.

This is scummy too.. the case on me isn't decent at all and if you did think so why wouldn't you join my wagon if it's closer to getting lynched than TFP's?

[BuJaber]

Well, for starters;

1. I started the wagon you are currently the counterwagon to.
2. My wagon has been doing a good job staying competitive with yours.
3. Me considering it a decent case (which it is) does not mean I actually fully agree with the case.

So why are you spewing this nonsense at me?

You said both are decent and are telling people to pick one of them. If either one works for you why not go for the bigger wagon?

[BuJaber]

Is the theory you're town, TPFKAP is town, and I'm scum utterly indifferent to the wagons?
In that case, wouldn't I be perfectly happy to move if I was indifferent?
So at that point then I'm scum and have a preference to lynch TPFKAP - which would suggest you're my scumpartner, something I'm guessing you're not arguing.
So then we go to you're still both town, but I'm scum who is scared to be on a town lynch wagon and am quietly trying to shove it through - which considering how loud and proud I've been about TPFKAP's wagon (and, frankly, even two minutes spent looking at any scum game I've ever been in) will suggest I'm not scared to be on a town lynch wagon nor to spearhead one.

So...then that leaves us with...what?
I don't get this.
What are you actually accusing me of other than showing that you aren't paying attention to my stated beliefs and are generically against anyone thinking the case on you is (terror of terrors) "decent".

My point is if you think the case is decent (which ftr I don't know how you can say it's decent and disagree with it.. because decent implies agreeing), you would want my lynch because you think I'm scum.

And if you don't agree with it you shouldn't be inviting people to join either wagon. You should be arguing for only your case against TFP.

Your statement was contradictory and shows you don't care who gets lynched and that's what pinged me.

[BuJaber]

Spoiler: I remembered to spoiler something for once

Snipped for readability.

The problem with the bolded isn't that you took either stance, but that you took both. Simultaneously. RC and Tora are fighting over nothing, so they are inflating the thread, but ALSO you are happy with letting them fight.

The underlined: No it isn't. It's easier to sort some people when they get to a certain level of angry. In this case, the argument had devolved to "You always scumread me and are an asshole." vs "You won't stop replacing into my games and are an asshole." Both players were arguing from a position of "I don't care about his alignment, lynch him". The only outcomes there are being able to read the fight as not SvS (Already obvious at that point) and the fight making so much noise the thread got choked with it causing apathy. People are easier to read when they're off balance, not when they're raging at each other to the point where the argument isn't about the game. Then it's just noise that people have to wade through to find tiny grains of real content.

Boiling down the rest of my case to the italicized is a major misrep as well. For example "Passively supporting a lynch while simultaneously distancing yourself from it" is by no means a "playstyle difference". It's a scum motivated tool for a lack of accountability. Why?

Well lets look at your current line of argument. The intersect between the two wagons probably has scum. Surprisingly, you're not in that intersect, because despite the fact that you supported the RR lynch, you never placed a vote there. If you'd like, I can go dig up supporting evidence.

Also not mentioned: the mental gymnastics required to somehow paint putting RR at L-1 as towny for baiting a scum quicklynch and scummy for... Baiting a scumquicklynch? And then not doing that.

1. Okay that point is clearer now. The difference being I was strongly suspecting the fight was TvS even before they started fighting. So the fight inflating the thread would by definition be caused by scum. Which is my original point about the inflation. Inflation doesn't happen because scum post nonsense by themselves. Inflation happens because scum continue or start converations about things that are not game-related.

2. The underlined. If you want to argue that real life facts are not true then that is a conversation to be had outside of the game. Angry people are easier to read. That's why there are emotional aspects of interrogations. That's why poker players target people on tilt.
As for this game and this particular fight... there would not be a fight if they didn't scumread each other. So I disagree with your conclusion that they wanted the other lynched no matter what their alignment is. Sure they might get on each others nerves no matter what but they don't start randomly fighting like that if each of them townread the other. A scumread is the spark.

3. You seem to think that I deliberately did not vote for RR so that I later when I make this case can conveniently not include myself in the list.
When the RR votes were piling on I was flip flopping on RR, townreading him for reasons, scumreading him for others, trying to sort him through other ways like watching their interactions with others and engaging him myself. I was considering lynching them for the flip and to have a wagon we can lynch one of in d2 as votes piling on that quickly indicated scum on the wagon. Whether it was for bussing or to lynch a townie. But I wasn't sure if I really scumread them.

When the flicker votes were piling on I was scumreading flicker. That's the difference.

And then the intersect thing is a way for me to focus my scumhunting on a small group of players instead of all 16. All I said about it was that there is scum in the intersect. I didn't say everyone in the intersect is scum. Why do I believe there is scum in the interest? Because there are more scum reasons to join both wagons and unvote than there are town reasons to join both wagons and then unvote both, as I explained to cheeky a few posts back. Mcmenno was saying it was meaningless because any group of 4 could easily contain 1 scum. But the thing is I believe that group definitely contains scum, so it's far more probable than a random pick of 4.
I didn't pick the names randomly.. I picked the names based on the fact that I find it extremely unlikely that 4 townies had the same read on a player being wagoned, then had the same change of heart, then had the same read on another player being wagoned, then had the same change of heart.

And it might just be Elsa being a 3p messing with the odds of this whole thing.. but to equate it to a random pick of 4 was wrong of Mcmenno.

And I'm curious.. if I had voted both of them.. do you honestly expect me to put myself in my own scum pool?
Probably not.. no you're saying I'm scum because I'm scumreadimg people based on something I didn't do.

But I went through like the most diffcult and roundabout way of doing so. Why wouldn't I pick literally anything else that some people did that some didn't?

Let me explain how much effort that was from my pov. 99% of the time I go on MS it's on the phone.. so on phone I had to go back to the first wagon, take the names from the VC, go through the thread counting any additional votes that may have been missed, then do the same thing again for the 2nd wagon, then write up a few posts that actually explain what I'm doing because like I can't just fling a bunch of naked names around, JUST so I can have an additional reason to start a vanity wagon on someone I already had several reasons to scumread which is way more than enough to start a vanity wagon.

I wanted to help people to see why RC/Chara is scum. They don't see it.

I wanted to point out that Toog's lurkiness is on par with TFP and nico and that he has voted only on popular wagons, but that got ignored.

So it's like not even the scum pool thing that I do that most players don't do that people are ignoring of mine, but pretty much every thing I bring forward is being ignored.

So you know what playing my way is not going to work with this playerlist.
So if you're town help me appeal to the status quo better. What should I do?
And if you're scum you should lynch me now because I guarantee you I get harder to lynch as town with time not easier. My cases become much more aligned with what people are used to seeing and I know how to argue them better because I have more information behind the reasoning for them.

And if I end up being right about Chara being scum then this site is in serious need of new blood because people are like letting their friendships mess with their reads.

Here.. you did make one point I agree with.. these solo wagons are going no where.
I think if we're going to vote for an active lurker we should vote for Toogeloo instead for the record.. if people are willing to switch..
VOTE: TFPKAP

[BuJaber]

No I understand the word decent differently than you do.

[BuJaber]

I'm not even interested in you getting lynched now.. I just didn't like that post and wanted to talk about it.

I haven't really given an opinion on you the whole game and that wasn't a coincidence. I don't have a read on you. I earlier townread your aggressiveness and your independence from what anybody else thinks but you seem like someone who can do that as either alignment so I don't want to read you based on what basically accounts to tone when I don't have enough experience with you to do so.

Pedit: fine for my own education.. so when you said decent you were just saying that it qualifies as a case instead of being a 'non-case'? Is that a correct interpretation?

[BuJaber]

Like, if you thought decent meant "Absolutely loved and agreed with" then I get your issue.

Simpler than that.. I equated "decent" with "good".

Decent human being, decent food etc.

Mafia specific: good case doesn't have to mean you agree with it fully.. but when you don't clarify that, the assumption is you agree with it. Like forget the word decent.. you agree that if someone says 'this is a good case' and nothing else then the logical assumption is that they agree with the case?

[BuJaber]

Vote bujabber, keep the advantage while we have it and press. Just look at his record, he is literally I thing about 90% WRONG on the issues that matter most to the town.

Show me his anti scum moves ste. He isn’t always anti town but he is never ever anti scum

You defend yourself by lying about me?

Not a good way to look townie.

[BuJaber]

I don't know the show and this is only my 2nd large game ever played so I only have one contribution to the setup spec:

It is a mistake imo to assume 4 different factions with killing power just because the mod did not specify "town" when he stated that only 2 people from any faction may die in 1 phase. If he specified town we would know for sure that scum cannot possibly be targeted by 3 kills which is quite a bit of info. I think it's very possible to have Town v Scum v Scum v Neutral. So 4 total alignments. I'm not saying we can't have more, just that we should assume that we HAVE to have more than 4.

Toog I for one after your claim never considered scum lightning rod. What I did speculate was whether you could be scum simply lying about your role. But your post actually makes it sound like you never even thought of that possibility which clears you I think. If you were scum lying obviously that possibility would be running through your mind. So you're town.

[BuJaber]

Gamma how do you read cheeky?

I'm good with menno..

You want to know why AND improve the accuracy of your reads this game? I'm town. The counterwagon to a traitor flip. Even if we assume scum didn't know the traitor, a town counterwagon to another town wagon? Scum voted me.

VOTE: Mcmenno

Jingle did you have any other reason for flicker being your vote holder apart from "she's priest"?

[BuJaber]

Where is Malak?

[BuJaber]

She scares me.
And I haven't sorted you yet.

Trying to make it easier for me to sort both.

[BuJaber]

I'm not saying we can't have more, just that we should assume that we HAVE to have more than 4.

Should NOT assume *

[BuJaber]

:/ I'm not scary though...

She scares me.
And I haven't sorted you yet.

Trying to make it easier for me to sort both.

Scares you in what way?

Scary is not the right word.. let's go with "makes me nervous that she's scum even when I townread some of her posts"

Take the part about the TMI thing with her bottom tier. A perfectly valid point BUT the scum motivation for stating it is obvious. Especially when it is not an easy statement to refute because it pretty much boils down to subjective interpretation of their subtext. And when Toog kind of made himself obvtown or suicided.

Either way though I think it's worth looking into, and of the 4 she chose Menno who has the highest scum equity.

She does seem genuine when she engages people and I don't think that's easy to fake, but unless she has an alt I've yet to experience her scum game firsthand.

[BuJaber]

You want to know why AND improve the accuracy of your reads this game? I'm town. The counterwagon to a traitor flip. Even if we assume scum didn't know the traitor, a town counterwagon to another town wagon? Scum voted me.

In a multi-ball game, that's never how it works. Scum only care if it's "not them."

Indeed.

Is this honest bad town play from Bujaber? As I said yesterday, I'm inclined to assume ignorance over malice much of the time(because it's so easy to portray bad town play as scummy), but this gives me pause.

Bujaber, do you actually have any logic to present about things that makes sense/isn't easily dismissed as simply wrong?

-Cerb

I'm 'not them' for all scum factions.

If 'not them' is the motivation for scum voting a wagon, I have a higher chance of attracting scum votes because I fit this description for more of them.

And if the traitor is unknown to scum in this game (seems that way from the role PM) then none of the factions would know they had a traitor. So if any faction decided TFP was traitor crumbing, they have an interest in keeping her alive in case she was

their

traitor.


Either way there is a visible difference between TFP and my wagons compared to RR and flicker's. Those seemed like early experimental wagons that fizzled pretty quickly. People only unvoted me because TFP wagon won. The votes on these 2 wagons were much more permanent.

[BuJaber]

The RR/BuJaber debate is going nowhere *really* fast.

Nancy Drew came in and gave a beautiful picture perfect example of IIoA by literally saying nothing other than theorizing town has a protective role other than the claimed 3rd party role - whoop-dee-insight.

It's significant Thor. It's a matter of "is Bujaber this bad, or are they scum?" This is the second time they've pushed some theory that's fundamentally flawed.

-Cerb

You know what how about you and Jingle and Toog go play your game of mafia in the corner. I'll play mine on my own.

[BuJaber]

Interesting. Was TPFKAP possibly distancing here?

Like, just look at this, let's even accept that Nancy honestly thought TPFKAP knew exactly who their teammates were.
Is she *agreeing* that this is distancing?
Is she *disagreeing*?
Is she discussing her personal thoughts on anything?
Or is she making noise and hoping someone else will attack a slot for something?

Pedit: I am fine with you not wanting to mine. But at that stage YOU'VE ALREADY TAKEN THE DEBATE AS FAR AS IT CAN GO BECAUSE BUJABER ISN'T GOING TO CLAIM SCUM IF HE'S FAKING HIS THEORY.

I agree you can decided this for yourself and get back to us - I fail to see the point of the debate in helping you, he stated his theory, you noted your hole - thus endeth the excitement.

Sheep me on Nancy Drew?

I suppose it's possible I had it backwards with RC v Tora.
But I still feel that the manner in which Tora declared his 3p read on Elsa, and then bragging about it was over-the-top and unlikely to come from scum.

[BuJaber]

But the role PM doesn't mention names of players like [redacted] & [redacted] which is what is the usual mod standard around here.

[BuJaber]

RR .. that'd be an even worse way to attract attention as scum. What would be their end goal?

[BuJaber]

I'm asking for real here not just to dissuade you. It'd be a fascinating scum gambit if they are actually scum.

[BuJaber]

But the role PM doesn't mention names of players like [redacted] & [redacted] which is what is the usual mod standard around here.

No, and why would it? When does the mod ever reveal the entire scumteam in a flip? Can you point to a single game, where this has happened. Necromancer obviously excluded - since that was a mod error.

You misunderstood..

The typical mod way of flipping scum or traitor who knows his buddies in this site is to literally use "[redacted]" instead of the player name. The role PM here did not have that. It's reasonable to assume TPF did not know the actual players only their flavor.

[BuJaber]

I'm asking for real here not just to dissuade you. It'd be a fascinating scum gambit if they are actually scum.

I mean, Elsa *wanted* to be publicly leashed, ensuring that their heals couldn't be viewed as a threat by any killing entities, while also claiming neutral and thus a potential ally to every faction. Seems like a reasonable path to take if one wanted to minimize the odds of being cross killed for at least one half of your team. They also claimed ascetic, dissuading anyone from spending on action on checking any of their claims.

All in all, reasonable scum line to take, especially if the player in question is known for playing in a "survivor" type way.

-Cerb

This would only explain Elsa's actions not why Tora would choose to connect himself to her like he did.

[BuJaber]

Your last post didn't show up in pedit or I missread it.

Okay then if you're just playing around...

You're either scum or you have no respect or interest for what I say or do. So nothing personal but I won't waste my time talking to you.

[BuJaber]

I mean ... that spew of crap could be give up posting I suppose. That's some consolation.

There is a VERY strong reason to believe that NicoRobin is scum in this game. Like bordering on logical certainty reasoning. Just trying to get this in before threadlock.

~D

A LYNCH has been achieved

VC#0

TPFKAP (9): Thor665, Gamma Emerald, Elsa Jay, CheekyTeeky, BuJaber, Jingle, Nancy Drew Shogunate, Chara, Toogeloo

BuJaber (2): McMenno, Chickadee
Flicker (2): Reasonably Rational, northsidegal

NicoRobin (2): Malakittens TPFKAP

Reasonably Rational (1): NicoRobin


Not Voting: Flicker

Deadline suspended

Interesting. Was TPFKAP possibly distancing here?

TPFKAP, the traitor, whose flip shows that they did not know who their teammates were, was distancing from their unknown teammates?

-Cerb

Was going to say the same thing

Are you catching up or not?

[BuJaber]

@RR - The impression was building up over time from your posts that was just the nail in the coffin.. but I'm glad I misunderstood that last one.. puts you in a better light.

If you're scum we can be friends after the game
If you're town we can be friends if we don't talk about mafia

[BuJaber]

I mean ... that spew of crap could be give up posting I suppose. That's some consolation.

There is a VERY strong reason to believe that NicoRobin is scum in this game. Like bordering on logical certainty reasoning. Just trying to get this in before threadlock.

~D

A LYNCH has been achieved

VC#0

TPFKAP (9): Thor665, Gamma Emerald, Elsa Jay, CheekyTeeky, BuJaber, Jingle, Nancy Drew Shogunate, Chara, Toogeloo

BuJaber (2): McMenno, Chickadee
Flicker (2): Reasonably Rational, northsidegal

NicoRobin (2): Malakittens TPFKAP

Reasonably Rational (1): NicoRobin


Not Voting: Flicker

Deadline suspended

Interesting. Was TPFKAP possibly distancing here?

TPFKAP, the traitor, whose flip shows that they did not know who their teammates were, was distancing from their unknown teammates?

-Cerb

Was going to say the same thing

This post really bugs me coming from someone who hasn't caught up.

You logged on, read enough context to form this opinion and read this post, and you decide this is worth posting, all while supposedly not being caught up?

I have put you fairly high on my townreads because I think you crumbed your role. I'm thinking now that I'm imagining it because your posting is one of the worst in the game frankly.

[BuJaber]

Buj, could you elaborate a bit on your Menno is scum reasoning? Is it all wagon analysis, do you agree with CT's points, or is there some as yet unknown aspect to consider?

Menno fits in my scum pools based on earlier analysis. Of all the people who voted me he was particularly aggressive about it in a weird way. Like he sounded offended by me defending myself and lashing out - that's how scummy I was to him and I think that sort of bloodthirst is fake. He had just replaced in. He was sheeping your case and RR's which are bad cases imo. And there's not much gamesolving/explaining reads/giving cases going on from him in general.

I'm flip flopping a lot on cheeky but I do agree with her TMI thing. And it really gives her townpoints tbh. Now maybe she's wrong about Menno but I think she's absolutely right that given the scum role PM there was something fishy going on around all the unknown role talk. So there's a combination of me trusting my gut over my hesitation on cheeky and I agree with her regardless of whether or not menno himself is the scum.

She should definitely not dismiss chick and you from possibly scumslipping either.

Btw since you're so conversational with everyone.. do you know me by reading my games or have we played before? I don't know who you are.

[BuJaber]

What case have I made? I certainly havent expressed anything I'd view as a case, and I dont make bad cases(that is, the logic is ALWAYS good, but it is possible for me to attribute improper weighting to other factors, thus resulting in incorrect conclusions overall).

I thought you calling out my analysis and voting me was your first reaction and counts as a case before you started considering "bad town" alternative. Did I misremember? Don't backtrack now.

I didn't follow the connection between Chick and RR wrt the timestamps. Someone explain it?

I believe Chick is telling the truth about the role, timestamps, and confusion. It just doesn't prove that she's town.

I'm good with Menno or nsg.

[BuJaber]

Mala also
It would have felt good if I were right about her crumbing but there's no evidence she's town here.

[BuJaber]

You're going to have to explain this more

1. How can you make sure everyone posts at the same time?
2. Are you suggesting we quote the wording of that part of the PM? because paraphrasing is not good enough for what you're trying to do.
3. Assuming you're not faking all of this or you're just an exceptional guesser, I think YOU have distinctly split your role PM into clear sections, but I think it is plausible that flicker's PM did not make it easy to distinguish between the flavor of the role and the role mechanics, and considered it to be one and the same. IF for example the name of the role (role not character) came in one sentence, and the mechanics description came in or continued in the next sentence, you would consider it one and the same.

Basically unless I'm misunderstanding you... this is an exercise in fuitility and if flicker is scum this is not a concrete way of catching her.

[BuJaber]

Also please point out to me where the flavor is in the sample role PM because I see nothing flavor related... it's literally you are [censored part]. You are a [role name]. [Mechanics].

[BuJaber]

I mean ... "You are flying pumpkin that shoots lasers out your arse" or whatever the precise wording of the sample PM is ... isn't actually role info. It's flavor. Specifically ... it's flavor that explains the role.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Of_Its_Ass

It's like saying "you are a cop" or "you are a doctor". It's not flavor.

[BuJaber]

If you still think you have a point once of us is too stupid to continue talking about this. I'm happy dying in exchange for a promise gou'll move on to better discussions.

[BuJaber]

My flip proves you wrong on everything anyway might be the best way to trigger a hard reset if you're town.

[BuJaber]

If you still think you have a point once of us is too stupid to continue talking about this. I'm happy dying in exchange for a promise gou'll move on to better discussions.

I'm not trying to be mean here.. our disagreement is on skmething factual we can't both be right so once of us is definitely misunderstanding something.

[BuJaber]

pedit: Bujaber, it is literally impossible for your flip to prove us wrong on ANYTHING. I don't even have a position on you. The only thing your flip would do is let us know if what Jingle, and Chara, and others it seems, is universal. If it's not, which we don't expect it to be, that doesn't mean it's not something that could be used to confirm some individuals, which was the point. ^^

Fine if this is true then I don't understand your entire flicker thing so I'll stop talking about it.

[BuJaber]

@RR - you're not coming off as an ass don't worry. You just don't get me and I'm not enjoying playing/talking mafia with you. Other topics sure anytime outside the game

[BuJaber]

I'm on Nancy Drew Toranagate. I'll get on Mala if the wagon is actually serious and going some where, but it's essentially a counter to NDS at the moment and has the person I am voting to lynch on it. I don't just flip my vote willy nilly though, so I don't just want to get on Mala and then everyone be like, "nah," and move to the next vanity wagon.

What sbout Menno?

[BuJaber]

Ahh .. so I was right about Mala crumbing but not right about the exact role / alignment.

@Toog - yes I'm suggesting you vote Menno, or at least asking if you would consider lynching Menno.

I mean if NDS is scum it gives townpoints to chara but don't expect me to throw away my entire read on the slot just like that. I don't think NDS flips scum.

So that's 3 claimed 3p... we can't keep all of them alive forever unless we lynch scum like every day because scum have a better chance of shooting down all the town now.

[BuJaber]

Elsa is right it's only 2 sorry.

[BuJaber]

I don't think we should lynch 3p yet.

I'm not arguing to keep them alive just delay their lynch for now.

Given all the claims and town spewing and (imo) a non-partner associative with RC/Tora, we have a decent chance of shooting scum in the remaining pool if we lynch randomly, better if we shoot scummy slots. Since we have lost no townies yet I'd rather go for a lynch that could land on scum than one that is almost guaranteed to be 3p.

[BuJaber]

If it makes you feel better .. I can guarantee you Mala cannot easily satisfy her wincon even if she knew who Mal is.

[BuJaber]

Ari's posts are weird.

Jingle said we shouldn't lynch 3p BEFORE 2641. Ari had to read 2644 to realize it?

[BuJaber]

@Ari - sorry I'm on the phone (like 99% of my posts are phone posts usually) .. so I will split up my response in multiple posts so I don't f up the quoting.

Literally, our best case scenario is lynching one of the HoB and having the other get shot overnight. This reduces the odds that anyone of the other faction dies at night (which they're likely to be happy with), so the other scumteam wants this as well. Therefore, we should be lynching not Mala, because by virtue of the claim, she is almost certainly not HoB. Additionally, if any other 3rd parties come out of the woodwork right now, it narrows down our chances of hitting them and aims our lynch at groupscum. Groupscum is the real threat here. Anyone who can win with us is secondary at worst and never needs to be considered at best.

In this post (post 2639) Jingle states clearly why we should not lynch 3p, why more 3p claims are good for us, and why it's +EV for town to shoot outside of the claimers pretty much.

[BuJaber]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that having specifically me (the guy who wants 3rd parties to win all games with 3rd parties) might be messing up the balance of this game a little?

You had an issue with this post of hers, saying that it's off because she's so focused on 3p. This post came after 2639, meaning if you read this one you read 2639.

[BuJaber]

Og, Jingle had the same point. Hmm...maybe we can get along

Only at this point, when you quoted 2646, did you supposedly realize that you are rehashing her idea.

Your post is therefore weird because it implies your point was original. It also shows you sort of shading Jingle then realizing she is stating the same point you are, but if you were reading the posts in the correct order you would have known this anyway.

[BuJaber]

@mod - I agree that Nico should be replaced

Congratz to Thor, Cheeky

@Ari - Okay I accept that explanation

Not sure about Toog wagon. LR is a very bold claim for scum.

[BuJaber]

@Nancy - is Tor okay? Where is he?

[BuJaber]

Tails does it make a difference to know that Jingle has claimed Mason and Gamma has just now confirmed he is the other Mason?

[BuJaber]

It's used in many many contexts.
I don't know why anyone took your "chaotic neutral" comment seriously.

[BuJaber]

I kinda think Nico/Tails have a role that wants to die.

I don't think anything as horrible as a bomb or jester but maybe venge or something.

Like we're basically just saving this slot because we're giving Chick the benefit of the doubt.

Can anyone tell me why they think Menno is town?
Sky was really meh compared to town!sky and menno is scummy.

Actually a better question is why isn't ANY wagon getting hammered yet.. don't lynch within the claims YET. That's all there is to it.

We can discuss any fake claim potential later.
Lynching 3p is bad for reasons other people have explained better than I could.
Lynching Jingle, Gamma, Chick, Tails is condemning two slots in one so a cash against one of the two is not enough.
Lynching Toog doesn't make sense. Once we have some idea of night actions his claim gets proven/disproven.

Tora is very probably town. I can't see any scum motivation to claiming his 3p read on Elsa and bragging about it. Maybe if they were both scum together, but if that were the case it will sort itself out if the time comes to lynch Elsa (either by losing a lot of scum and the game is still in progress, or by losing enough town that she becomes a liability). Plus he felt townie to me in the fight with RC.

I've left many clues that I'm town I think.

For now this leaves us with:
Chara
Thor665
McMenno
Reasonably Rational
Aristophanes

Who have neither claimed nor had someone claim for them. We can probably remove RR from the list because of Drixx's role PM stuff.. (though I admit that would be pretty cool scum performance). Thor seems pretty townie overall especially after the TPF flip.
We should lynch Menno, Ari, or Chara.

[BuJaber]

Spoiler: For Tails

Chick's probably town, for me the issue is the River-centric posts not always having to point to River. Chick said the cop is supposed to hint at the flavour, not blatantly state it.

do you care if you're lynched?

i'd prefer if I wasn't lynched.

Can I get something better than you'd prefer not? Nobody (usually) WANTS to get lynched.

So I figure at this point the damage is done so I might as well point out what we have. Either A50 just thought we needed some extra special sentences or else most/all town also have some extra flavor they weren't considering flavor since it's a lead in to their role explanation.

We have a redacted character name. Cerb and I believe the best bet for us is Book with an outside chance Inara could fit the bill. Book is much better of a fit because of the next bit we have: This ship is your home and the crew is your family. In an effort to protect them, {explanation of what we do}

Followed by: ROLE NAME and EXPLICIT mechanical description of how it works.

I am unsure to what extent this will help at all, but that's enough to be getting on with I think.


@Malakittens - I'm gonna be up a little while. Then I'm going to sleep for a bit. You have like 9 hours to post something of some substance or I will be voting you and there was already L-1 on you. You can do that math.

~D

So I figure at this point the damage is done so I might as well point out what we have. Either A50 just thought we needed some extra special sentences or else most/all town also have some extra flavor they weren't considering flavor since it's a lead in to their role explanation.

ehhh i.... don't believe any damage had been done until you were unnecessarily explicit.
what does outing this help? you're already town and you won't be lynched.

what's done is done i suppose.

One of two things is true:

1.) All town have some flavor transition into their role mechanics.
2.) Not all town have it. Perhaps only us.

If 1 is true, then any town flip gives scum what I posted (and the day almost ended before I had a chance to post at all). If 2 is true, then there's nothing to learn from the role PM construction that's useful for game solving.

In all cases, my misplay earlier this day phase already alerted all scum that the warning they got about us having redacted role names was not sufficient for them to fake a town role PM ... at least not with 100% security. That means we only have what came before that post to work with in terms of that, given that it was just too implausible for us to arrange a time where town would drop in an answer to the question within 5-10 seconds so it couldn't be quoted and quickly stripped of bad tags by scum.

And even then since timestamps are to the minute, it would have required me to post every 10 seconds or something to note the time passage.

A lot of trouble for ... at best it would have given some near confirms and broken the game in a way the mod didn't want. So ... eh. I kinda shat the bed on this one honestly.

~D

My flavor is retracted also. I'm a 3rd party. In order for me to win I need a player to be lynched. if they are NK'd I lose the game. I'm also apparently full Bulletproof in order to help me survive to meet my win condition

So you're the bounty hunter or the operative. What happens if you meet your lyncher condition? Do you exit the game also?

~D

I mean ... yeah. That makes you the operative. The Bounty Hunter was after River. Maybe some outside chance you're Niska, but someone else is more probable for Niska so ...

Also ... it feels a little weird to have a lyncher in the game. The way the game is constructed, the player who is Mal almost certainly doesn't know that they are unless A50 made an exception and gave them a lot of explanation. But ... being given that extra instruction would put said player on the watch for something like you're claiming so ... yeah. You gotta just randomly hope whomever got that role gets mislynched?

Like ... I guess there's nothing for it. I'll wait a bit for folks to process, but I don't see any EV in letting you live. You're not on our side and have every reason to try and lynch town reads. If you happen to be alive later and Mal eats it, we have an unexpected numbers change. That makes it hard to have any idea where we stand.

I'm sure you can make all the arguments yourself. You know what happens next. Ka.

~D

All, saffron, not scarlet. I had to look that up to remember her “real” name.

Yeah ... Saffron wasn't ever any actual threat to Mal. The Operative would have killed him if not for the war wound. Of the two ... the operative is the one who actually had a true purpose in going after him, while Saffron was just a grifter who showed up repeatedly.

Malakittens does make a good point.

As far as EJ goes: Jay is

absolutely

good enough to make that claim as scum and pull it off. And as town. Cerb and I spent some time talking about it already and ultimately we feel like that slot is just going to resolve itself within a couple phases. If it doesn't, then it has to eat rope for all the reasons already stated.

At this point it's probably actually more EV than I thought to leave Malakittens around. There were two slips in that post and even as much as I respect Mala and believe that could have been staged, it and the following posts are just too dead on exactly what to expect if we're seeing honesty. So scum can try and find Mal and know they get an extra kill out of it which bypasses the swing mechanic ... or they can come after one of a few of us who are probably on their list. It's not great but it's more than a pile of slots are offering right now.

I need sleep but I would suggest we find a better lynch target.

~D

Town players: Look at your role PM. I want you to

LOOK

for now but make no comment in the thread yet. There are three potential outcomes to this, and the best one would be snagging multiple scum, so please bear with me.

Let's look at the sample Role PM and break it down into its components:

Greeting: Hello {Name}

Role Paragraph, broken into several parts:

1.) Character: You are {Redacted but revealed on flip or end of game}. <--- From TPFKAP's flip we see that scum actually know who they are and also get a very hard to miss warning that we do not.
2.) Flavor: A sentence that gives a bit of flavor but isn't really the role.
3.) Role: Role Mechanics

Win Condition

---

So ... that's the sample.

In the part of the role paragraph I numbered "2" above, there's something

very specific

in our role pm. I suspect that it exists for most/all of town. So ... go take a look. It should be wildly obvious to you if you have it. And as a reminder, I will point out that Flicker claimed having a Role PM that went from the redacted sentence

DIRECTLY TO THE ROLE NAME/MECHANICS

when asked.

So ... what next?

1.) Assuming the sample PM and our PM are representative, then those of you who are town are going to see what I'm talking about. The problem is that the moment any of us say it precisely (or one of us flips), then that bit of info ceases to be of any value, other than the obvious part where Flicker appears NOT to have it.

It seems very unlikely that we can catch anyone else out at this point, assuming this actually is the way I think it is. They're alerted now.

But maybe there is a way to perhaps catch someone or perhaps confirm some of you.

I suggest that I make a timer and people prepare a spoiler button answer to what they have and preview it to ensure it's correct and then have that copied and ready to go. When the timer expires everyone posts theirs (and we post ours). It will only be useful if someone tries to fake but doesn't have what we have and/or for the small few people who actually are willing to make a post in a very short window.

Maybe all it does is confirm us to people who have the same thing and give strong evidence of Scum!Flicker. Maybe we get more out of it. I dunno ... I thought about it all day and I couldn't think of a better way to leverage it.

But I do know that from the sample and from the setup spec that has gone on today that it's pretty likely most or all of you who are town with us have some variation of what we have immediately following the redacted character name part of the role PM.

Apologies if it's not super coherent. I'm going to go sleep now. I'll check back in a few hours and see if this made sense to people. I'm open to better ways to try and get +EV out of it but I think there's not many plausible ways really.

~Drixx

I mean ... "You are flying pumpkin that shoots lasers out your arse" or whatever the precise wording of the sample PM is ... isn't actually role info. It's flavor. Specifically ... it's flavor that explains the role.

We have flavor that gives the motivation for our role. I would expect at least 5 or 6 of the characters on the ship to have something very similar to ours.

As far as the mason claim goes: there's two obvious mason pairs who are unambiguously and obviously going to be town if they are used in this game. One doesn't make sense. The other does. If you are that pair of people, I would actually expect that it would have been difficult to give any flavor explaining your mason connection that would not ALSO have given away which characters you are. (The pairs I'm thinking of: Simon and River; Zoe and Wash).

Make of this what you will. I was in a hurry and misplayed so the question now is whether to go anywhere with this. I also already raised the ethical concern of whether going along these lines is even something we want to do. Like ... if it is true that every town role pm was constructed with some kind of flavor statement that transitions into the role mechanics ... then using that would bypass the obvious mod intent of NOT breaking the game by flavor. But ... when I asked this question earlier the only reactions were opposite of this line of thinking.

So I guess we'll wait a bit and let folks check in and decide if they want to do anything with it. If not, I'm personally happy to divulge what we've got. At this point, I can't imagine any town seriously having any doubts about us which means we're probably going to be killed off because I misplayed.

~D

@Jingle can we just lynch Bujaber? They seem to be missing the point, and given the other suspicion of them...it might do well to resolve the entire situation. Either our suspicions about what we've found are wrong, OR this ignorance they're showing actually means what we think it does.

-Cerb

I’m intentionally not leading wagons today as is my right as a claimed mason.

I won’t stop you though and may or may not give you my vote if you go there.

Speaking of this.

You do not have a right ot lead any wagons until 1) your partner explicitly confirms the masonry, and 2) one of you flips as town mason.

Until then, you're just as likely to be ballsy scum as town.

JS.

Like, two games ago Drixx and I won as quasi-scum via claiming mason with our scum partner.

Note, I do not want you to claim etc. I'm just reminding everyone that such claims should not be accepted as truth until there is a flip to support it. I get why you wouldn't want to expose the partner as an actual mason, so I don't want that to happen, but scum fake claiming would do the same.

-Cerb

pedit: Bujaber, it is literally impossible for your flip to prove us wrong on ANYTHING. I don't even have a position on you. The only thing your flip would do is let us know if what Jingle, and Chara, and others it seems, is universal. If it's not, which we don't expect it to be, that doesn't mean it's not something that could be used to confirm some individuals, which was the point. ^^

Sorry the quotes get really jumbled up. Might be easier to just read the last 25 or so posts in their ISO.

[BuJaber]

For now this leaves us with:
Chara
Thor665
McMenno
Reasonably Rational
Aristophanes

Who have neither claimed nor had someone claim for them. We can probably remove RR from the list because of Drixx's role PM stuff.. (though I admit that would be pretty cool scum performance). Thor seems pretty townie overall especially after the TPF flip.
We should lynch Menno, Ari, or Chara.

Fwiw Chara you defending me is kinda working on me. If you were scum you would not really want to NK me, but lynching me would be relatively easier than most players here given everything that has happened and that has been said, and I don't think you would get much heat from doing so so choosing this route is probably suboptimal for scum!you.

But I don't think you are as townie as Thor and I think RR townslipped. That's why they got removed from the PoE but you didn't.

Also tomorrow this whole thing becomes void because we will have to scrutinize the claims much more heavily.

[BuJaber]

Thor seems pretty townie overall especially after the TPF flip.

Really? You're going to give Thor credit for a flip that from a scum perspective, was not aligned with scum. Can you point out what you found towny apart from that?

Kinda felt that Thor has been the number 1 person in this game that has this "fuck what you all think this is what I want to say" purity in his posts. He's kind of antagonistic for no reason sometimes. At least that's the tone I'm getting. And scum have to be more diplomatic than that.

I think you are a close 2nd.

[BuJaber]

He also never really hesitated on which wagon he wanted. He made up his mind on what/who was scummy day 1 and pushed for it. He didn't join the bs wagons just to go with the flow

Etc...

[BuJaber]

It's not typical of scum to deathtunnel and actively push someone on day 1 like that, and even if they do, like I did in my newbie scum game, it is on someone that is townie. Not someone that is an easy mislynch who they may or may not have suspected to be scum of another faction/traitor.

Pedit - yeah I'm recycling some of my stuff. I wanted this post to encompass all living players. Also chara is being really nice and if she is town I'd feel bad if she misread my intentions/thought I had this personal vendetta against her.

[BuJaber]

It's just I can't fully shake the scumread. But motivation wise I'm struggling to find out a reason for scum!her to want to buddy me here when all my attempts to lynch her has failed.

[BuJaber]

Is the argument here that Chick is not lying but she incorrectly interpeetted the clues regarding Tails slot?

Plus the number 2 thing?

[BuJaber]

I've secretly been wanting to lymch noth Chick and Nico. Chick's claimed flipped this 180 degrees becauae I couldn't come up with a good enough reason for scum to claim the way she did and at the time she did.

[BuJaber]

And if they're not both town, then the most plausible option imo is that Chick is town and Nico/Tails is scum because it doesn't make sense to me that Chick would do this as scum regardless of Tails' alignment.

Maybe if she wanted to a) mess with us, b) conftown a slot that isn't important to town, c) avoid having to engage or talk about partners, d) was very confident that she wouldn't be lynched/copped

So to those that know her do these things make sense from.scum!Chick?

This doesn't really change anything about tails btw.. I'm trying to use this opportunity to get a better read on Chick.

[BuJaber]

I might be wrong but I remember Chick saying she gets scumread as town so I would expect scum!her to be scared of someone investigating her.

[BuJaber]

VOTE: Tails

Sheep those who know flavor I guess.. it's pretty convincing.

[BuJaber]

If she were scum flavor cop I don't know why she would out...

But I think if she is scum, she did not check Nico so that part is bs.

Why wouldn't she go for a more threatening player, you know?

[BuJaber]

They're only poo if you're town and Chick is scum.

Otherwise I'm at least 50% right.

[BuJaber]

No. They're poo regardless of our alignments. The way you just joined the wagon was poo.

"Oh hey! Let me just move off this McMenno wagon that I've been thinking is scum and join this new hotness. Based on stretching a weird post into something significant in an effort to hide how flimsy the wagon is."

Unless you were on McMenno because of pokemon demons, the jump here is super sketch.

But if my initial basis for not wanting to lynch your slot is flawed then you're no longer out of my the lynch PoE.

I was wrong to assume that you cannot be scum if Chick is town. Therefore unlike Jingle/Gamma who can either both be scum or both be town, you and chick can move in and out of the lynchpool independently.

Menno is still scummy. It's just now you have a higher chance of flipping scum.

[BuJaber]

Fine Tails

Why did you comment on how scummy you thought my vote switch is instead of telling all the previous voters that they're wrong about you?

[BuJaber]

Why is it wrong for me to switch wagons? You don't think I could read both of you as scum?

[BuJaber]

And what do you think of everything else I've said this game? Are you going to scumread me based on this one thing alone?

[BuJaber]

I want BJ to explain this odds thing to me. I understand Chicky and me going back down to similar odds as McMenno. What I don't understand is how that makes me a stronger scum read than the guy he's been sitting on all day. Either his McMenno case is just as flimsy, or he has a BS in math.

Because if people say flavor wise other claims are more likely to be River, and nobody is doubting that Chick actually saw what she saw, then there's a good chance you're someone hunting River if I understood the flavor talk correctly. And we know for sure that flavor is strongly indicative of alignment based on the redacted flavor for town only but not scum.

But you know what you're right.. I don't know which of you is more likely to flip scum. It's not an exact calculation.

Let me stay on this wagon and just hope that a majority is reached on one of these wagons before deadline.

VOTE: Menno

This is townie ladies and gentlemen. Tails said so. Joining a more successful wagon is only an act committed by filthy scumsters.

[BuJaber]

Ooh look at that cheeky is paying attention to the lesson. Joining a wagon with no votes cannot be be called opportunistic. Sharp observational skills.

[BuJaber]

Yes come on maybe if you lynch a townie they won't kill you Tails.. it's bizarro world out here .. even though .. that would be the wrong flavor.. but it's just the sort of twist one would expect from A50.

[BuJaber]

Elsa honestly you are much more dangerous to keep alive than Mala, if we get in a situation where we have to lynch 3p


But if I die she becomes more dangerous than you. So if you want to help town don't lynch me but if you want to help yourself you should.

[BuJaber]

I thought cheeky was one of the soft claims that could be River???!

[BuJaber]

Well it's important because if she is it makes no sense for her to unvote you.

But I don't know where she claimed and there are no specific mentions of the name in her ISO.

[BuJaber]

Players:

Toogeloo - weird posting. No clear motive. If he keeps it up might become too scummy to be scum. I'd rather he didn't.

the worst - I want to townread him but that would be too easy. It's never easy with tw.

NicoRobin - if scum have a lurker, it's Nico.

RadiantCowbells - probably scum for reasons I have stated so far.

Toranaga - probably town but I'll never be sure if he continues to post like he's tired.

TPFKAP - needs to post. Maybe scum have 2 lurkers actually. Though 2 lurkers + RC team doesn't make sense because who wouldn't want RC as his scum buddy. But if they are lurking might explain why RC doesn't seem that interested in this game.

Chickadee - I have once played with and incorrectly scumread Chick. If she doesn't live past day 1, I likely won't get a read on her.

Flicker - townreads feel like TMI, scumreading me feels like shading in a 'look how cautious I am' sort of way. But if I'm biased on any read it's this one. Because like I haven't townread anything they've posted so far and that's weird.

Thor665 - seems like he's playing a boxing match not mafia. Apparently it's not AI according to Tora.

BuJaber - is one of the gnomes that say non

CheekyTeeky - she's cheeky and she's teeky. I dunno why but gut says town.

Skygazer - townreading for reason stated in previous post

Elsa Jay - 97% sure she's neutral doctor.

Reasonably Rational - Rationally Neutral. Might be a robot.

Malakittens - Town

randomidget - I don't think they've posted

northsidegal - I thought was absent for longer than she's been absent. Null right now. Probably easier to read through other people. Supposedly there's a creature-level activity tell on her but that's an easy thing to take advantage of. Also unless they were meming I'm pretty sure someone has nominated her for being good at scum and she does have an impressive win record so I don't really buy this tell much. (In the sense that her lurking is very likely a scum tell, but her NOT lurking is not a town tell)

For what it's worth I think both lurker wagons would be good for us, especially now that there's been some back and forth from the people on each wagon.

But people townreading TFPKAP already are lying to themselves.

There's nothing there. There's nothing in Nico's ISO


The difference between RR and them is in addition to what I've already said, he's engaging with people and keeping up with his word vomit. And I see it is a very excessively exhausting way to maintain fake towncred if that's what he's going for. He could fake reads and post less and choose to engage people selectively instead of doing this. He's being brazenly rediculously irrelevant and attracting attention like a magnet. Also the early wagon on him was weird and I'm fairly confident one or more of the voters were scum. I'd rather first get some scum flips before starting to consider the possibility of some sort of SvS wagon.


So RR is likely town, one or both of Nico/TFKPAP are likely scum.

Lol Tor why are teasing us so much.. just speak your bloody mind already

VOTE: flicker
7 it is. Claim please and let's see if this wagon is full of hot air.

I think d1 lynch should be one of {flicker, TFP, Nico}

I kinda think Nico/Tails have a role that wants to die.

I don't think anything as horrible as a bomb or jester but maybe venge or something.

Like we're basically just saving this slot because we're giving Chick the benefit of the doubt.

Can anyone tell me why they think Menno is town?
Sky was really meh compared to town!sky and menno is scummy.

Actually a better question is why isn't ANY wagon getting hammered yet.. don't lynch within the claims YET. That's all there is to it.

We can discuss any fake claim potential later.
Lynching 3p is bad for reasons other people have explained better than I could.
Lynching Jingle, Gamma, Chick, Tails is condemning two slots in one so a cash against one of the two is not enough.
Lynching Toog doesn't make sense. Once we have some idea of night actions his claim gets proven/disproven.

Tora is very probably town. I can't see any scum motivation to claiming his 3p read on Elsa and bragging about it. Maybe if they were both scum together, but if that were the case it will sort itself out if the time comes to lynch Elsa (either by losing a lot of scum and the game is still in progress, or by losing enough town that she becomes a liability). Plus he felt townie to me in the fight with RC.

I've left many clues that I'm town I think.

For now this leaves us with:
Chara
Thor665
McMenno
Reasonably Rational
Aristophanes

Who have neither claimed nor had someone claim for them. We can probably remove RR from the list because of Drixx's role PM stuff.. (though I admit that would be pretty cool scum performance). Thor seems pretty townie overall especially after the TPF flip.
We should lynch Menno, Ari, or Chara.

Tails maybe missed these when he read my posts. Or didn't read them at all.
No townreading of Nico. Not even once. Specifically mentioned that not wanting her lynched has more to do with Chick than her.


So far this game I've been called scum for:
- sorting people through PoE lists
- using logic that doesn't fit with RR's definition of logic
- saying that angry people are easier to sort than calm people
- saying 'but' more than 70 times
- moving someone who isn't a townread from the no-lynch pile to the lynch pile.


God knows how many years of combined playing experience you all have but this is really what you want to teach new players?

You want to know why I like this game? Because it's never going to be repetitive. People will always see things differently. No two people will play town the same way. No two people will play scum the same way. To be a great player you have to know what works best for YOU. You can't just imitate someone else's formula. That means you are constantly having to analyze yourself as well as other players.

Don't let personality get in your way. Rise above. Read between the lines. Figure out intent.

[BuJaber]

Anyone else feel there are too many protective/healer claims? (Whether soft or hard)

[BuJaber]

Remember when I said Cheeky is awfully sheepy this game?

She is the one that started the Menno case, but she has since left it to join Tails, then left that to join mine, when I was the 2nd person to present a case against Menno.

[BuJaber]

You think that was a guilt trip?

That was straight up calling out veterans for being lazy and playing to old metas

[BuJaber]

Really?

So what number would be too much?

Because I count 4 so far. (Elsa, RR, Flicker, Cheeky)

[BuJaber]

If a game has many killing roles but also many protectives, it's not much of an 'overkill' game, is it?

And even the LR could be thought of as protective in the sense that it potentially turns multiple kills into just 1.

[BuJaber]

I specifically didn’t read your overuse of prevarication as scum. I noted it as potentially scummy and through due diligence and a meta dive determined it to be null. I do suggest that being less waffley might help you be more convincing, but that’s not really important now.

Also, reaver groupscum is a possibility in my mind because they A. Don’t kill other reavers and B. Kill indiscriminately, leaving the possibility of cross killing open. Flavor has to take a backseat to the core of the game at some point.

Niskas crew makes more sense, tbh, as a groupscum angle, but they’re less iconic than either the alliance or the reavers. There’s also the crew mal fights when he’s running out of air in the flashback episode, but that’s fairly obscure.

There’s a bunch of potential 3p’s but none really strike me as fitting the mold particularly well.

Ehh sorry then I knew you said you would metadive but I wasn't sure what conclusion that led you to.

[BuJaber]

Uh where did I soft protective BuJaber? Also, since when are Flicker and RR protective roles?

If a game has many killing roles but also many protectives, it's not much of an 'overkill' game, is it?


If a game has many killing roles but also many protectives, it's not much of an 'overkill' game, is it?

Pretty sure this^ is scumplaining.

I said protective/healer.

Book, Inara, and Priest.
Covers you, RR, and flicker.

[BuJaber]

I'm basing this on you saying "You're Inara" to RR.

If I misunderstood just tell me and we don't have to talk about it today, but at least I'll know to stop looking within the protectives.

[BuJaber]

Second: Are you saying I'm more dangerous because of my personailty and criminal record or are you saying a Survivor is more dangerous then a Lyncher?

And why are you trying to appeal to me in particular? I know atleast a few of the people here like my opinion, but trying to pocket me seems weird as fuck.

Your also trying to make me not hang you by... Accusing me that I'm being selfish if I hang you?

VOTE: BuJaber

Yeah, no. I'm not falling for that shit.

This is actually amazing. You misinterpretted every single part of that.

Spoiler: For Elsa: What I actually meant/intended

First of all Tails pissed me off so to prove him wrong I wanted to get lynched in the most fabulously sarcastic way ever and then BOOM you will all be enlightened with exactly what my role is this game. But the actual real reason is that I'm hoping people, including tails himself if he is town, will realize how rediculous lynching me actually is and will move on to lynching scum.

Second of all no you are dangerous not because survivor is more dangerous than lyncher. It's because Mala's win condition is almost impossible to achieve without help. Also because from what people are saying you are capable of pulling this off as scum. But mainly the mala thing. I may or may not have more to say about this later in the game.

Thirdly, (ties in to the first reason), I 'appealed' to you because you are a 3rd party. If you and Mala have not lied, which I suspect neither of you have, then I was 100% honest with you and because I was truthful I was hoping you would vote me to stick it to the players in this game who frankly I'm not sure anymore who's being more anti-town.. my townreads or my scumreads.

Again, I'm not actually trying to die but I don't value my role more than some of the claims we've had so far, and in a moment of mixed emotions I wanted to lash out in a way that makes me the most hated player in the game but that everyone would still be forced to townread. It's a way for me to know if I've truly obvtowned or not. Also because sarcasm and the thought of proving people wrong kinda calms me down. It's pretty messed up now that I'm admitting this out loud actually, but that's just how it is. I'm trying to never rep-out of frustration again in any game and one way I do this is to remind myself that I know I will never flip scum despite what anybody thinks so as long as I've put in a reasonable effort to solve the game I don't need to blame myself for my lynch anymore and they can lynch me 7 times in a row if they want.
I've actually been a lot more active than I expected to be in this game so I'm pretty happy with my play so far.

[BuJaber]

2 Death* rather.

It's why I used LR last night. Since a non town was lynched, up to 2 town could be night killed, so it seemed optimal to reduce that to possibly just 1.

This reminds me.. I wanted to ask you about this earlier... I don't quite understand how the flip has any effect on the number of town that could be NK'd. How would it be different if it a townie got lynched day 1?

[BuJaber]

if a townie got lynched day 1, only one could die at night, maximum. it's part of the setup.

Oh that counts as the same phase for kills.. cool cool

[BuJaber]

This is actually amazing. You misinterpretted every single part of that.

It's a special skill of mine, I assure you. But that atleast proves how different our thought process is.

Never trust I (or anyone elsa for that matter) understand how you think. Explanations are key.

and your saying you think your role is less valuable then any of the claimed ones? very weird way to soft-claim.

Ftr Priest is a modifier I'm not comparing mine with Flicker's.

[BuJaber]

Because if that's her full role she's glorified VT

[BuJaber]

This got interesting.

Jingle and anyone else who knows the show well.. you agree with RR's interpretation of the videos?

@Thor - why not Menno thouhh? Also it was really only 4 of us max.. the same 4 people who think menno is scum are flip flopping between him and other wagons.

[BuJaber]

Please post a picture of your face when I flip. Just please do it.

[BuJaber]

I've cut down the sugar I consume this would be like a substitution to me. So delicious.

[BuJaber]

Actually wait you have an easy out. "I didn't read any of your posts".

Nvm your face will just be like

Anyone else voting me.. like cheeky and gamma who have actually played with me before and know my style.

[BuJaber]

Even if you think I didn't obvtown because I'm a master manipulator.



My crumbs are so obvious that I'm regreting posting them.

[BuJaber]

Chick why are you so offended by people voting Tails? Nobody is saying you HAVE to be scum if tails is scum. You might be innocent and just made a mistake. Clues are pretty cryptic.. and now that the mod allowed you to share them.. it can be discussed in public.


Pedit - no thanks. My crumbing is obvious as to what the role actually is but the details/variations are what's important and those must be kept secret.

[BuJaber]

I didn't remember you listing reasons for why Menno is town, I went back and it seems you sort of do because he tried to start a wagon on me EoD1 but your main points recently are that there are slots that you think are better lynches, correct?

I'm surprised you can actually townread the slot. Like I can see why some might not think the slot is scummy, but I can't see how it can be anything better than a null. Unless cheeky is confirmed scum there's no reason to townread sky/menno. And even if cheeky is scum, all we know is he's not on her scumteam.

If it's not about him but about other slots being scummier.. I'm not really seeing scum!NDS here.. and Tails I agree with but I think he will be lynched without my vote anyway so I'm interested in seeing who else he will suspect for pushing him. Also it will feel sweeter for his wagon to get hammered without me.

And on the off chance he is town somehow happy to keep giving himself the excuse of not reading, this gives me a chance to learn more about how he thinks. If he thinks I am scum but I don't vote him and enough people do vote him he will have to explain it somehow in his mind. The only two possibilities from his pov would be that town all got deceived and mislead into voting him or that my hypothetical partners will have to join the wagon to make up for my missing vote.

If we're going to play together again sometime disecting his thought process could come in handy.

[BuJaber]

Thor the Tora thing is based on d1.. d2 disappearance is fishy, but I'm willing to give him a chance to return and explain. For someone who tryhards and spamposts as both alignments I think we can assume there's some reason he cannot post.
Nancy's posting hasn't been stellar I guess I would agree with that but nothing has jumped out as particularly scummy enough to offset my d1 read of Tora.

@Tails - that's fine tails but you'll be scumread for it. 100 pages isn't anything to shrug at. You can and should do whatever makes you happy but being scumread for it should not be a surprised. Both cheeky and I claim that our alignment is very obvious based on what we've postdd already, and literally every player here has dropped their activity level recently compared to day 1. You will have gaps if you don't read. Just the way it is.

@Thor - what's your point.. obviously Tails has got me riled up but me not voting him = he lives longer = posts more = more info to analyze his style/thoughtprocess

[BuJaber]

McMenno was the starter of BuJaber and was Stargazer also, I kinda thought he was town. What's the case there for people?
Looking at the lynch;
TPFKAP (9): Thor665, Gamma Emerald, Elsa Jay, CheekyTeeky, BuJaber, Jingle, Nancy Drew Shogunate, Chara, Toogeloo
I'm town, Elsa is not a lynch nor likely groupscum, I think Cheeky is town, I think Toog is town.

I think we should lynch one of Gamma,BuJaber,Nancy Drew,Chara

Okay let's discuss..
First since you didn't mention Jingle here, what is your position regarding Jingle, for completeness.

I'm town.. so of your list of 4 that leaves 3. Assuming you TR Jingle then Gamma is out too, even if you don't they are connected and likely will get NK'd if telling the truth so it's a horrible lynch mechanically, leaving NDS and Chara.

I have stated many times, and still believe, that Tora v RC was not TvT and so NDS, Chara I agree contains scum.
My preference here is Chara. But I will be willing to reevaluate if Tora returns and starts posting more. I'm confident I can sort him even if I'm wrong initially.

Just so it's clear to me, and/or I missed it, how do you explain his behavior towards Elsa's crumbing and later role reveal from scum!Tora's pov? SvT, SvS, buddies, or Sv3p. Also what do you think he gains from defending Elsa if Elsa is not on his team.

Scum LR would be insane right? Do we need to talk about Toog ever? I've been treating him like conftown since the claim.

Okay I admit I didn't take your wagon analysis seriously earlier because I saw my name among the list.. but a d1 wagon in a large and probably multiball game on a traitor has to include scum... but also given how many people we can eliminate from the pool based on claims then we also have a really really good chance at lynching scum if we lynch randomly off wagon, let alone if we actually lynch a scummy slot off wagon. Would you agree to that? Like how many scum do you imagine are on the wagon, when 4 out of the 9 are 2 masons, 1 LR, 1 3p doc, and then you and me assuming you're town puts it at 6 out of 9. Even if we ignore the CT townread (which we shouldn't) Mathematically we probably have more scum off the wagon.

My interpretation of the RCvTora puts it at 50% chance to shoot scum on wagon if we shoot one of them. So I guess 16 alive minus the 9 on wagon leaves 7, mala is 3p so 6. If we think there are 4 or more scum total in the game then off wagon is better odds.

If you think we can raise the probability of shooting scum on the wagon higher than 50% then on wagon would make sense.

[BuJaber]

@Thor & Tails - Because the chance off wagon is likely higher than 50%, given how many non-scum we have on wagon.

Assuming we have at least 4 living scum.

[BuJaber]

It's pretty close between on and off... I guess my position would change if I didn't TR Tora day 1. With only seeing Chara as an option, it's not much of a choice.

Cheeky I've been flip flopping a lot on because she feels sheepy. I don't know if I can townread her strongly. She's a townlean for now because I've generally been happy with her tone and she was engaging people directly quite a bit earlier in the game.

Thor I'm townreading

And yes there is a sort of underlying assumption of 1 scum on wagon but that's based on PoE not any specific reason for it. As in I'm pretty confident that 6 out of the 9 on wagon are not scum, and I townlean cheeky that's 7. I suppose I didn't account for NDS and Chara being scum of different factions, but I'm not sure the Tora/RC fight happens the way it did if both are scum.


Pedit - Thor / Chick - town
Cheeky / RR - town but not so strong
Ari / you - scum

And I haven't thought about it much until I started on this wagon discussion.. but traitor + 2 group, and another faction of 2-3 seems likely. So I'm assuming 5-6 total scum.

[BuJaber]

Wait how would the extra kills required factor in... maybe 7 scum isn't too op, especially with 2 per cycle limit on town deaths.

What's the maximum number of scum you think can be on wagon? Even a generous 3 scum on wagon still leaves us with a possible 4 off wagon if 7 scum total.

[BuJaber]

Ah no wait if 3 on wagon that's a max of 3 off wagon because TFP flipped already..

Yeah see I'd bet money on there being 1 scum on wagon, but less sure for 2, and skeptical that there's 3.
Off wagon makes much more sense

[BuJaber]

That's starting to confuse probability with percentage chance - and it also presumes all your reads are right.
We already know for a fact there is at least one non-town on (Elsa) and two off (Porkens and Mala).
With, again presuming the 9 town theory, thus 5 non-town remaining.
Probability actually suggests more are on the wagon due to what assured non-town claims we have (town are unlikely to be claiming non-town so pretty much their alignment claims are 100% while the other claims are not).

I would suggest that means the real question is, why aren't you hard suspecting some of the claims *or* why aren't you voting one of the 'meh' reads from the wagon?

You're calculating just pure odds here right? Not factoring in claims, reads, and your own alignment? Because I don't understand how you get more scum on wagon than off.

And what claims would I suspect?
Flicker is the only one I can see lying from the hard claims. Not lying about priest obviously but lying about being town. Elsa maybe.
Soft claims are too ambiguous to accept/reject based on claim. That would be your RR and cheeky, who are currently townleans.

We're basically going round and round only to return to you wanting me to vote for NDS. And I can't give you that at this time.

I'm thinking off wagon is better so the on-wagon rationale won't convince me... just wait for Tora to post again and focus on why we should vote NDS.

Pedit - answered.. claim was proven by her. Just doesn't make her necessarily town.
Any non-serenity characters that would fit with a priest modifier?
Also she recently claimed that's all her role is VT with priest.. which is new info that nobody talked about .. I'm kinda skeptical of that though why she would claim it as scum is beyond me.

[BuJaber]

Chick ask the mod what happens if you cop the same person twice. Do you get new clues or the same ones?

[BuJaber]

I'm tempted to vote flicker now

[BuJaber]

Playwise she's not worse than Ari/Menno though
Just a weird claim.

[BuJaber]

No need.. if you get any new reasons I'd like to hear them that's what I meant.

[BuJaber]

Nico posted nothing.

When the slot got some suspicion Cheeky claimed she copped you and you're innocent.

People started debating what her clues meant. You are either guiltied or inno'd. It's not very clear. Apart from calling me scum for voting you you haven't done much that's AI. At first I didn't consider your slot at all because I was falsely assuming that cheeky and you have to be on the same side. Once I realized she could be town and just wrong, I thought about voting you because a few people seemed confident that you are more likely to be scum based on the clues than not.

Let me try to explain my process because I know I'm not a great communicator and you guys seem to assume whenever I give a reason for voting it is the only reason for voting.

Some claims don't have to be believed to remove them from the lynch pool. The obvious one is masons. Jingle and gamma might be lying. But guess what we will know soon enough. Elsa might be lying but guess what as claimed 3p there will be a time where he becomes policy lynchable. As claimed doc he will have to keep giving us believable targets for protection. It puts him in the spotlight whwre we can continue to monitor him.

I look at wagon, game state, scum distribution, and PoE to determine who I want to vote. I may or may not explicitly state all the reasons for it but even if I do state reasons they may not be all in one post.

For example I voted menno for the reasons I posted earlier but didn't mention anything about off wagon at the time.

With Thor right now I'm agreeing with some of his points, and that there is scum on wagon, but I also think there are more scum off wagon and that I overall read tora as town so I don't want to vote there.

It is unorganic to base reads and decisions based on just one thing and not changing them and having varied confidence based on all the different variables like new trains of thoughts or through engagement with others or because someone comes forth with a good point that forces you to reevaluate.

Main point is if I remove all claims from the lynch pool it doesn't mean I townread all of them. It means I don't think it's the right time to evaluate them.

[BuJaber]

Menno isn't happening then?

[BuJaber]

I think that's L-2