Newbie 2031 - The Wild Hunt (End!)

[Satisfaction]

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

VOTE: Bluebell For Feryland!

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What's up with all the fairy talk?

Are you telling us that you

don't

live in the depths of an enchanted forest?

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@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

Yeah, that was a weird game. I was in a bad place mentally.

Bummer. I hope you're feeling better.

I guess I could have engaged more with Mushagana and come to some kind of understanding. I think play styles clashed a bit. I feel some players focused on mechanics instead of

reading

the damn game.

Working with Mush in that game seemed challenging. Town vs. Town seems rough when somebody is so adamant that they are right.

What would be your assessment?

I don't really have much experience to have any weight behind my opinion, but I just went back and skimmed your ISO. I think shelly was just able to slip into your spat with Mush. I agree that a couple people were too caught up in theory. You might have been able to push back harder on Umlaut when he put words in your mouth. I can't see why a townie would bend your meaning like that. I don't want to derail here, I just enjoyed reading the game and wanted to say hi.

Oh and the fairy stuff is just the flavor fferyllt is using and we were playing along.

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Personally, I find this post is more AI to Arthur than it is Satisfaction. Maybe feels like fishing for an easy wagon. Very weak though. Measuring scummieness versus townieness on a scale from -100 to 100, I'd say I currently put Arthur at -2.

Mundivore, does it make you feel any particular way about Egix96? If so, more or less of an indication than from Arthur?

[Satisfaction]

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

VOTE: Bluebell For Feryland!

That sounds a bit robotic/awkward to me. This is Satisfaction's first game, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Does sound like it could be a noob scum, I'd be suspicious if it wasn't his first game.

Mundivore, what are your thoughts on this?

Redados, why did you ask Mundivore for input but not Bluebell or Not Known 15 who also hadn't weighed in?

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there's two people with no avatar >:(
this is gonna be a confusing game. I'm calling it

Bluebell, I made a thingy for you if you want it.

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VOTE: ArthurConyl It feels like you were fishing for support and then quickly backed down. Why post #35 and #37 at all if you are, as you said, 1) not suspicious and 2) giving me the benefit of the doubt?

Egix96, I'd like to hear what you think about what I am seeing as a backpedal by Arthur.

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P.S. Why do you want to hear from Egix?

I’m happy to answer that, but I’d like to hear from Egix first if you don’t mind.

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P.S. Why do you want to hear from Egix?

I’m happy to answer that, but I’d like to hear from Egix first if you don’t mind.

Hmf. I mean I'm happy to wait for Egix to answer, but why do you need him to answer before you can answer? A wee bit odd.

I wanted to wait because I don't think Egix actually finds my intro to be scummy. I was waiting to see if he would say that himself. I thought he was scumhunting. After his response, I feel less confident in that assessment.

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To be clear, by scumhunting in this context I mean that I thought his (unpopular) claim and early exit from RVS were bait and not a genuine belief.

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he's ignored my reasoning

I didn't ignore it, I just think you might be lying.

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Hooold up there,

@Not Known 15.

You've probably just done the scummiest thing yet in this game. Please explain why I shouldn't transfer my vote to you. You put Satisfaction at E-1 and not even a reason? You're practically begging to be scumread.

Interesting. So E-1 is significant, but not enough to unvote?

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On the off chance that a wild hammer slips in and I don't get the chance to share, here are all of my notes as of right now:

Noraa (Neutral-town feels. Buddying me or teamwork?)
36: Defends me / dismisses suspicion. Reasonable, townish.
92: Presses Not Known when he votes for me with no comment. Townish, hunting.

Mundivore (low participation)
52: Says what I was thinking re: Arthur suspicion. Pings town, but could be mafia pulling a string.

Bluebell --- no substantive contribution by page 3 (but came in late)
84: she's rhyming, which is fun, but not contributing on page 4

Redados (town or smart scum)
44: "practically everything in RVS is NAI" -- agreed
50: presses Mundivore to weigh in on my intro (hunting or performative towniness)
63: direct, succinct answer to my weak probe. No attitude or defensiveness. Pings town.

ArthurConyl (no read, might be noob scum)
35: Weakly agrees with Egix's weak push on me.
40: Backs down quickly when challenged by Noraa. Testing waters or changing mind?
78: Tries to defend himself. Maybe flustered, maybe floundering to cover backpedal. Read meta.
93: Reacts to Not Known's silent E-1 vote on me. Says he is "begging to be scumread." Does not remove his own vote, leaves me at E-1. Pings scum.

Egix96 (SE) (lurking)
33: First non RVS comment of the game + vote. Page 2. Makes weak poke at me. Hunting?
81: Confirms that his initial vote was supposedly serious. Dismisses backpedaling theory in support of Arthur. Mildly pings scum. Read meta.

ClarkBar (SE) --- no substantive contribution by page 4 (working over the weekend)

Not Known 15 (SE) (mild town, need more)
54: Goes out of his way to weigh in on my intro issue without being pressed directly. Pings town.
90: Votes for me based on Artur's pushback. Only quotes, no comment. I think this is town applying pressure. Buuuut claims to not know the vote count. That seems cavalier but not necessarily scummy.

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Dont ever accuse me of pocketing. it annoys the hell out of me.

It wasn’t an accusation. I was just sharing thoughts for posterity. We can still be friends.

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it was an accusation

Am I lying or do we have different definitions of “accusation”?

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@Noraa 109-112
That's fair & noted. It wasn't my intent to accuse you. It was a straight copy-paste of my notes. It's full of guesses.

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I feel like I would usually only read my own ISO during a game if I was worried about how my play appears to others. I think that's a pretty minor concern for townies.

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BAHAHA

No, "BAAAAH"

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same difference

Hm.

No, "BAAAAH"

Ahem. This is

explicitly

not allowed:

Not even a "Bah" post.

Haha. Mods take me awayyy

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This was the reaction to E-1.

To be clear, a reaction to E-1 in a game where we have multiple very quiet participants and we’ve already seen one case of voting-without-counting.

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What's worse is that all they have posting since leaving E-1 is posting fluff.

Practically everything in the game since that time has been fluff. Give me something useful to talk about. I think it’s pretty clear that some people are trying and others are coasting.

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we’ve already seen one case of voting-without-counting.

Hint. It was @Not Known.

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Next game I plan to lie low and at least survive D1.

I’m not going to try to tell you how to play, but I recognize this feeling. Here is the way I see it: townies who win typically win while dead. Your (town) job isn’t to survive, it’s to die a meaningful death. To progress the game state. Buttoning up and being quiet does not help the town. Force people to get on the record. If somebody is going to mislynch you, make them talk about it.

I guess I did kind of tell you how to play. But I mean it more from the perspective of how I am trying to play. Votes on you don’t mean you’re doing something wrong. They don’t even really necessarily mean somebody thinks you are scum at this point in the game. It might not even be about you. All of that to say, don’t get discouraged. Get hunting. We need you.

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^ this has me wondering if her freakout about my "accusation" was alignment indicative.

My "hm" in #157 was me noting internally that she still seemed to be butthurt. Or maybe she just didn't get my joke.

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^ this has me wondering if her freakout about my "accusation" was alignment indicative.

My "hm" in #157 was me noting internally that she still seemed to be butthurt. Or maybe she just didn't get my joke.

I played a full game with her and that was generally how she communicated. Although she was scum that game. My instinct is to say that it's NAI.

I’m about halfway through Doggos. I want to come back around to this.

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VOTE: Bluebell How’s that next poem coming along?

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why would someone question a read that they agree with

This is the second time in the game you've had a stance that doesn't seem genuine to me. I can think of what.... at least 3 answers to this question right now. It's hard for me to believe that you cannot.

[Satisfaction]

What makes you think I was fishing for support?

Maybe I didn't explain it well enough. Let's step through it.

Emphasis mine, numbers inserted:

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

VOTE: Bluebell For Feryland!

1)

That sounds a bit robotic/awkward to me.

2)

This is Satisfaction's first game, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

3)

Does sound like it could be a noob scum,

4)

I'd be suspicious if it wasn't his first game.

1) Shade
2) Backing off
3) Shade
4) Backing off

@Noraa

Maybe try reading it again? xD "Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I an town-aligned. Good luck and have fun."

5)

Doesn't it sound odd to you? No offence, it sounds like an automated message.

6)

People are hardly ever that formal on the internet and certainly not on here.

5) Polling for support.
6) Shade

Yeah I agree with you there,

7)

scum wouldn't be that obvious.

8)

The post is NAI, but it's

9)

just something to think about. Do you know anyone here?

7) Backing off
8) paraphrasing: "Oh I'm just kidding, none of this matters..."
9) "... oh but maybe we should still keep it in mind"

Essentially you made no claim here you stick to. It was wishy washy. All it really did was associate my name with scum and leave you room to back up and say:

I also explained that

10)

I was trying to generate discussion and clearly stated in my original post that

11)

it was probably NAI. If anything, it feels more like you're trying to start a wagon on me for arbitary reasons.

FoS Satisfaction

10) paraphrasing: "I'm just town doing town things."
11) paraphrasing: "Remember when I said it didn't really matter?" Remember the other half of that sentence?

---

Just for the record, I'm old.

Back in my day

people were plenty formal on the internet. I also work in tech where people are similarly formal all day, on the internet. All of that said, my intro was purposefully stilted. You and Egix chomped down on it hard. We are past the point of this wagon (the wagon on me) generating information and unless you actually think I'm scum because of the way I introduced myself in the second post of the game I think it's time to move on.

I'm here to win the game, not to win the day. Let's go. Thanks for the reads.

Bluebell

is next.

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Take care of yourself Mundivore.

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Why aren't you voting Satisfaction?

Who are you talking to here @Not Known?

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Both of the 2 wagons have successfully produced content. She is the darkest blind spot.

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@Bluebell who is scum. who is town.

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I finished Doggos last night. I have a gut feeling that there is something relevant about Noraa's meta but I just haven't pieced it together yet.

I just played my last game with Noraa. I think she's kind of just like that... she's very new to mafia and hasn't developed a lot of the intuitions that feel obvious after some experience.

Could you sum up Noraa's strategy in Doggos in a sentence or two? I'm interested in your perspective.

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@ Bottom of 193: Funny how you didn't mention any of that sooner. Are you not aware that trying to pass off a scummy opening as a reaction test is one of the oldest tricks in the scum book?

I did mention it. Have a look at my 71:

VOTE: ArthurConyl It feels like you were fishing for support and then quickly backed down. Why post #35 and #37 at all if you are, as you said, 1) not suspicious and 2) giving me the benefit of the doubt?

I just typed it out bigger and with more bold numbers this time. As for why I didn't lay out the whole argument in excruciating detail the first time a. I thought what I saw was obvious to everybody else and...

Ftr I'm not convinced Arthur is scum.

... b. me neither.

Are you not aware that trying to pass off a scummy opening as a reaction test is one of the oldest tricks in the scum book?

All I have for this is, "lol okay."

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Say 'em then, because I don't believe that you believe this.

• When you are wary that scum may be hitching to your wagon.
• When you are trying to pull content out of a lurker who is sheeping but not talking.
• When you are not very confident in your read and you want another perspective to help you work through it.
• When you are trying to get folks on the record so you can revisit later to try to understand their objectives.

Just off the top of my head. There's probably some overlap between those.

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Funny how you didn't mention any of that sooner.

Oh you said the bottom part:

Just for the record, I'm old. Back in my day people were plenty formal on the internet. I also work in tech where people are similarly formal all day, on the internet. All of that said, my intro was purposefully stilted. You and Egix chomped down on it hard.

I felt no need to defend something that what.... seven of the nine players in the game found to be NAI? Also, how I type is something that becomes obvious as the game goes on. If I'm scum because I type in full sentences and claimed my alignment on page one, you need to reevaluate your process. We have 10 pages of content to work with now.

I asked Arthur to talk more and go on offense. He did. I realized that a town!Arthur actually might not understand where I was coming from in my 71 and that scum!Arthur wouldn't invite me to draw attention to his flip-flopping behavior, so I gave him as much as I could in response to clear the air.

I think you can see how I play. I'm investigating. Trying to draw out interesting conversations. I haven't figured out how you play yet. Is your intent to get this post out of me? What does that do for you? You grabbed onto my intro post and pulled us out of RVS. Great work. You created good content by pulling Arthur along with you. Awesome. What are you doing now?

Scum!you has to see that I'm not getting eliminated today. So what are the possible motivations?

• Cast doubt because I'm an obvious NK target and you're planning to not kill me and raise eyebrows D2.
• Waste my time because I'd rather be talking to Not Known (the first person to throw down a real scum accusation in the game) or Bluebell (the frivolous fae flitting in only when flagged) right now.
• Otherwise derail the thread and stall progress.

Town!you only recently stopped lurking. I would like it if Town!you would be a little more straightforward if you are holding on to some big corkboard mastermind vision of the game in your head. Town!us need to kiss and make up.

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I don't see how that's true though.

That's fair. 9 players, 5 to kill. 2 scum. 1 me. That leaves 3 people to convince out of 6 townies. Seems unlikely to me, but of course it's not impossible.

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:/

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I finished Doggos last night. I have a gut feeling that there is something relevant about Noraa's meta but I just haven't pieced it together yet.

I just played my last game with Noraa. I think she's kind of just like that... she's very new to mafia and hasn't developed a lot of the intuitions that feel obvious after some experience.

Could you sum up Noraa's strategy in Doggos in a sentence or two? I'm interested in your perspective.

IMO, she's too green to have much of an established strategy. She's capable of canny observations but she primarily deals in fluff.

The reason I asked about this is because I felt that the same way as you most of the way through the game. However, near the end she started showing some impressive misdirection skills. While it ended up not bearing fruit because her partner made a big misplay, Noraa was able to stare down the barrel of widely accepted logic (when the solve was coming together) and insert enough confusion to change the day 1 elimination target.

Just purely from a "what is this player capable of" perspective, I found that interesting. Much of her emotional posting was intentionally misleading.

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My Clark read is hard to explain, honestly. I feel like he's performing for us, to some extent. He feels like friendly enough and like he wants to be seen to be doing things but I feel what he's saying, uh...lack a certain crunchy quality? He's still in first gear?

To me Clark feels like he's a uncertain of himself. However, he has just replaced Noraa so I'm going to give him some time before reading him. If he keeps acting this way, it could be AI.

Here you are talking to Noraa's replacement, telling him that a player who literally made the first post of the game replaced into the slot he currently occupies. I can't even see how it would be a typo given that you are directly quoting TW here. Are you maybe just skimming the game? I don't expect everybody to sit here like a nerd with a txt file open like I am, but come on. What happened here?

Since Clark is doing a reread of everyone, I'm going to follow his example and do the same.

Since X is doing Y, I do it. LAMIST.


Not sure who is it yet, so I will not move my vote at the moment.

You're overreading that line.

Agreed. But also I just encouraged you to engage more with the game in 170. It's interesting how you frame it as something you decided to do based on your casual observation of Clark instead of saying, "Oh yeah, Satisfaction. That's a good point. Here are some reads." I feel like I'm talking to you and you're talking around me. Is that because it doesn't fit your narrative:

If you're town, I would expect you to be the one asking questions and pushing people.

I do not know what I'm doing if I'm not doing that.

You only elaborated on your read on me when I pushed you.

I didn't feel the need to tear you apart over one fishy post. I asked you about it directly. You didn't really answer my question. You still haven't, really. The more you dig into this and the more little slips you make the more I think you actually are scum. The single biggest thing that makes me not solidly scumread you right now is that I think the odds are crazy low that we just stumbled face first into scum on page 3.

@Satisfaction

Something else I noticed from rereading your ISO (yet again).

Spoiler: Earworm

[Satisfaction]

Can you explain those reads now? tl;dr I don't feel that you've done anything constructive.

Sure. Who are we talking about? I'm going to dismiss the way you loaded up the question. If your intent is to get an emotional response out of me, it's not going to happen. I know the game I'm playing. You don't even seem to know

who

is playing it. Similar to earlier situations I've had with Egix, I don't see how you could believe that I'm not hunting (or trying to at the very least). TW has correctly interpreted basically everything I've done in his response to you about me. Maybe that will help you understand.

I'm confident in finding logical errors, sniffing out deceptive wording, and remembering correctly the events that have happened in the game. I'm less confident in sorting alignments, but yes... please. Let's talk about somebody.

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I'm most interested in elimming one of Arthur and Satisfaction today

I think I've seen two different people say that if one of us is scum, the other probably isn't (or maybe you, twice? I'd have to check). I agree. That said, I'm just as wary that it's town versus town. If so, would that make an elim between us less informative? After that, what's the risk of two miselims in a row once we've locked into this either-or thinking? This is coming from a place of... I don't know. I clearly see him doing weird things, but I don't know if that makes him scum. If I was under a hammer right now you wouldn't hear me screaming, "Get Arthur tomorrow after I flip town!"

The post that started our whole beef could have just as easily been an eager Arthur wanting to contribute to a game that had just started, but not feeling very confident, as it could have been him trying to test the waters or draw suspicion towards me. From there on, I can't tell if his weird push back against me has been a series of misunderstandings or what. If at any point he would have said, "Oh yeah, my post was kind of wishy washy. Huh. I guess I just wasn't feeling confident" or something along those lines we never would have gotten to where we are right now. If anybody thinks that has been resolved in some fashion and I've just missed it or been hardheaded about it or something, let me know. I feel like it could have been a two sentence post on page 3. The one he did write (#73) was very unsatisfying to me.

My take is that there's still plenty of time to pursue other avenues today, even if we do decide to come back around to me vs. Arthur. I don't understand the case against me, but maybe that's just something people go through when they know the truth from their perspective? I guess I haven't bothered to examine it very closely.

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STOP. POCKETING. END OF CONVO

Oh come on.

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if anyone is interested this antagonism is nearly identical to the approach scum!shelly took to town!me's replace-into newbie 2023

Yeeeah part of the fun of trying to understand Noraa is that I’ve been reading shelly as a byproduct. Put me in, coach.

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I feel ignored.

Im sorry you feel that way. I suggest addressing people directly if you have information you want from them. My mental image of you in this game is somebody sitting in a corner mostly silent.

Even now I don’t know what you want. It feels like you’re pouting. If you’re looking for a reaction to your shelly vote, I think it’s weak and I don’t see how it helps us.

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TW has agreed with everything I’ve said since he replaced in and he townreads me right off the bat. That makes me nervous. I’m looking forward to some constructive disagreement.

Mundivore’s assessment of Noraa’s playstyle is interesting to me. Either they didn’t see the things I saw in Doggos, we just have a disagreement about her, or... I’ve been kicking around the thought that maybe Mundivore is supporting the squeaky clean naive town image that Noraa cultivates. Is Mundivore-Noraa/TW a viable team? I haven’t looked into it closely yet.

That said, Mundivore was one of my earliest town leans and I generally have been sorting your slot and theirs as town throughout the game. If Mundivore is scum they aren’t doing the kinds of things that raise my eyebrows.

I think the most likely scenario is that Noraa’s freakout and subsequent departure was that of a bored townie.

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Also, you have a bit of a unique, recent insight into scum!noraa so I’m interested if that impacts your reads on TW right now? She did depart pretty early on.

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I'd prefer to drop Arthur instead of shelly. The shelly quote that Not Known is scumreading seems like her being pouty/sarcastic/whatever other shelly thing she does. It reads to me as attitude, not her asking a genuine question. I think shelly has some interesting insights about potential scum!TW motivations and after reading their interaction twice, TW seems to mostly only have "no u!" as a response. To be fair, I need to go through that part again from TW's perspective.

I also feel like she is able to drop the act and be serious: The way she engaged with me was more straightforward when she was taking a break from yelling TW into a corner. If she was just a chaos machine at all times I would be more likely to support a policy elim. Get you a shelly who can do both.

Town: Mundivore & Redados, probably Egix (I've come around on this one based on more recent posts).
Townish: Noraa->TW
Null: Bluebell & Clark->shelly.
Scummy: Not Known & Arthur

I don't like that Arthur:

• Didn't bother to answer about his name blunder (explained in my 262).
• Said he was reading the shelly/TW battle and would analyze... but he never came back around to share an impression with us. Instead, tried to convince people to post less.
• Never directly responded to my 193 and wants a "fresh start" even though he still "hasn't forgotten" me.

VOTE: ArthurConyl E-2

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No, Mundivore was one of the Arthur votes and they are on you now.

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UNVOTE: ArthurConyl

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that's E-1, the fourth vote

someone get arthur to claim

I don't like this at all. I've seen the way shelly does backflips to sniff out roles and I'm pretty confident she can count.

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Mmhm.

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Scrolling up five posts sure is hard.

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Is there a name for a dual bus? Cross bussing? Ooh can we call it a double decker?

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That PT is on fire right now.

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you think me + arthur are doubledeckering?

I think you know what I mean.

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Welcome back @redados.

@TW so talk to me about vote counting, bud.

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Real hard work, right? Easier to let other people do it for you?

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No, she's trying to change the subject.

brb, re-reading in a new context.

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For anybody who wasn't here when that just went down, look at time stamps.

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Satisfaction, if you think that's changing the subject, that's deflecty.

Oh geez, got me.

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can you explain it to me like I'm stupid?

Yes, but I need a few.

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Scenario for consideration:

Noraa->the worst

and

ClarkBar->shelly

is the scum team.

Relevant facts and events:

• Noraa and Clark had almost no interaction.
• Noraa did 3 things this game. None were controversial. 1) Chatted with Arthur about my intro, 2) asked Not Known why he sheep voted at me with no comment, and 3) hopped on the Arthur wagon behind Mundivore.
• Clark posted almost only fluff (the only player who I had no read intel on at all when I was at E-1). Oh and he voted Arthur.
• 221: TW replaces in for Noraa and scumreads Clark during his initial catchup (along with Arthur, everybody's favorite miselim). However, he gives essentially no reason. I believe this is TW distancing. Giving a scumread with no substantial case separates them but doesn't convince the town that Clark is scum, leaving them both cleaner.
• Shelly subs in for Clark and all hell breaks loose. Shelly finds a few picky things about TW that call into question his motivations but it's really similar to my case on Arthur in that it feels like digging into technicalities and communication style rather than actually finding scum-motivated behavior. They lay into each other. Nobody else can really gather any meaningful takeaway from it. It smells town versus town. I believe this is intentional. Neither of them gave a case for the other that was convincing to the rest of us.
  
  Especially interesting to me is how TW seems to have a very weak case against shelly. He doesn't seem to actually try to present a case, he points to his authority as somebody who has recently lost against shelly. Reminder: both players are calling for the others' head at this point and they are both experienced players who know how to communicate their cases.

Now at this point, something interesting happens. First, the town gets a friendly reminder from the largely town-read Mundivore. We are running low on time. Egix comes in and expresses the same concern. I begin writing up my Arthur vote and I see shelly has jumped over to him in my preview.

I make the E-2 vote behind her and I write it out explicitly in my post:

VOTE: ArthurConyl E-2

• Two minutes later, shelly declares it is actually E-1 and asks somebody to force a claim.
• I re-assert the count and tell her how she may have miscounted. She is wrong.
• the worst expresses intent to hammer. A hammer that by now he should know he isn't holding.
• Shelly again says that Arthur is E-1. She is still wrong. This is a full six minutes after the first time I wrote the count.
• I quickly unvote. This is now officially the scummiest thing that has happened in the game. This sort of "blood in the water" heat seeking missile behavior is 100% scum shelly. This is her game.
• Shelly provides an incorrect vote count. She's now supposedly miscounted twice? Her pedit is just a series of questions marks at my unvote. Why oh why am I holding up progress?

This was an organized gambit to get a role claim from Arthur. The timing was not an accident. That two different experienced players miscounted (one of them miscounting more than once?) is unlikely. They thought they could do this and brush it off as a simple accident. They thought they bought that with their doubledeckering^TM

VOTE: shellyc

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lol and now we are deep into the shelly and tw show. Brace yourself for two more pages of nothing.

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guys am I at E-1 now?

Gosh, just still can't manage to figure out that count huh?

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the type of strategy which very few scum duos will actually bother engaging with

Yes, except maybe a scum team made up of two experienced players who are used to being on opposite factions and are ready to style on a newbie game as a sort of victory lap?

[Satisfaction]

@TW I'm going to give you an opportunity to lie for me here now that you've had a couple hours to think about it. Why didn't you know the count? Why did you see shelly's post in your preview (re: your pedit) but you didn't see mine?

[Satisfaction]

You're like a suffocating fish, flopping on the dock.

[Satisfaction]

Oh no big deal. Just that one time when you pretended to try to hammer somebody.

[Satisfaction]

The only way I'm backing down here is when some townie can talk me through why I'm wrong.

Spoiler: lock em up

Scenario for consideration:

Noraa->the worst

and

ClarkBar->shelly

is the scum team.

Relevant facts and events:

• Noraa and Clark had almost no interaction.
• Noraa did 3 things this game. None were controversial. 1) Chatted with Arthur about my intro, 2) asked Not Known why he sheep voted at me with no comment, and 3) hopped on the Arthur wagon behind Mundivore.
• Clark posted almost only fluff (the only player who I had no read intel on at all when I was at E-1). Oh and he voted Arthur.
• 221: TW replaces in for Noraa and scumreads Clark during his initial catchup (along with Arthur, everybody's favorite miselim). However, he gives essentially no reason. I believe this is TW distancing. Giving a scumread with no substantial case separates them but doesn't convince the town that Clark is scum, leaving them both cleaner.
• Shelly subs in for Clark and all hell breaks loose. Shelly finds a few picky things about TW that call into question his motivations but it's really similar to my case on Arthur in that it feels like digging into technicalities and communication style rather than actually finding scum-motivated behavior. They lay into each other. Nobody else can really gather any meaningful takeaway from it. It smells town versus town. I believe this is intentional. Neither of them gave a case for the other that was convincing to the rest of us.
  
  Especially interesting to me is how TW seems to have a very weak case against shelly. He doesn't seem to actually try to present a case, he points to his authority as somebody who has recently lost against shelly. Reminder: both players are calling for the others' head at this point and they are both experienced players who know how to communicate their cases.

Now at this point, something interesting happens. First, the town gets a friendly reminder from the largely town-read Mundivore. We are running low on time. Egix comes in and expresses the same concern. I begin writing up my Arthur vote and I see shelly has jumped over to him in my preview.

I make the E-2 vote behind her and I write it out explicitly in my post:

VOTE: ArthurConyl E-2

• Two minutes later, shelly declares it is actually E-1 and asks somebody to force a claim.
• I re-assert the count and tell her how she may have miscounted. She is wrong.
• the worst expresses intent to hammer. A hammer that by now he should know he isn't holding.
• Shelly again says that Arthur is E-1. She is still wrong. This is a full six minutes after the first time I wrote the count.
• I quickly unvote. This is now officially the scummiest thing that has happened in the game. This sort of "blood in the water" heat seeking missile behavior is 100% scum shelly. This is her game.
• Shelly provides an incorrect vote count. She's now supposedly miscounted twice? Her pedit is just a series of questions marks at my unvote. Why oh why am I holding up progress?

This was an organized gambit to get a role claim from Arthur. The timing was not an accident. That two different experienced players miscounted (one of them miscounting more than once?) is unlikely. They thought they could do this and brush it off as a simple accident. They thought they bought that with their doubledeckering^TM

VOTE: shellyc

[Satisfaction]

@TW you aren’t reacting like somebody who is happy that I am finally on team kill shelly.

[Satisfaction]

satis can you provide a readslist or something

Not helping you flood. See #437 for the latest.

[Satisfaction]

Also, world laziest town play. “Just uh do something or something?”

[Satisfaction]

Same place it has been all game. Anti-town behavior. No strong conviction that it’s scum-influenced.

[Satisfaction]

I feel like town!shelly would point out how statistically unlikely it is that she is rolling into a scum slot right now, but scum!shelly would worry too much about how it would sound. Especially in light of Mundivore’s earlier statements about scum using probabilities to make cases in unfair ways because of their information advantage.

[Satisfaction]

now why do you think anti-town behaviour = not scum influenced?

if there is no town motivation for doing something, it DOES NOT COME FROM TOWN.

This is ground that’s been covered already in this game. My leading response to this is, I’m not so high on myself that I think I caught scum on page three. Hubris. Beyond that, I’ll save the theory discussion for a time when I’m not talking to a famous wriggler whose game is on the line.

[Satisfaction]

if there is no town motivation for doing something, it DOES NOT COME FROM TOWN.

This is wrong and you know it’s wrong. People aren’t robots. People don’t play perfect logical games. Of all people, you know this.

[Satisfaction]

I’ve probably read 2 full games of yours and parts of a handful of others.

Flop. Flop. Flop.

[Satisfaction]

I kinda start thinking about town!worst now.

Psst. Hey, town. Interesting how peoples’ convictions go out the window when they’re being marched up to the gallows, right?

[Satisfaction]

Egix, Bluebell you've both posted since I shared my scenario. May I have at least an initial impression of it, if not a detailed response? Specifically some kind of alternate explanation for the last part, the recent events surrounding the vote counting and (from my perspective) role hunting. Same question to Mundivore, Redados, etc. I need some town brainpower.

At this point I'm ready to see shelly swing. We are running out of daylight. If we have to do Arthur to push something through today, I will support that (based on my most recent explanation, primarily anti-town behavior).

[Satisfaction]

Something just happened. My interpretation may not be 100% correct, but I am convinced something happened.

[Satisfaction]

If anything, Egix has been climbing more and more onto the radar as the game progresses.

[Satisfaction]

Reminder, we do have a request from Redados to wait for his evaluation.

[Satisfaction]

I found some really good news for shelly last night.

Spoiler: phew, close one

[Satisfaction]

1) Your crumb means nothing. Why would a crumb ever matter in a situation where other roles haven’t already been claimed.
2) TW was never excited for your elimination. Not since it seriously hit the table.

[Satisfaction]

Nobody asked shelly to claim. Dog. And. Pony. Show.

[Satisfaction]

Saying the claim was a spur of the moment decision is also a lie. Shelly already gave intent to claim and “self towncase”. I’m not interested in hearing either from her.

[Satisfaction]

One more day. One more opportunity for you to wriggle and writhe and come up with more ways to stall.

You crumb is 100% useless. Mechanically what are you even pretending that it accomplishes in this situation?

[Satisfaction]

Uh. No. That’s the post I was talking about. You can’t use your lie as evidence that you haven’t lied.

[Satisfaction]

I think that pushing for the elimination of a prodded lurker while we are waiting on potential counterclaims seems reckless.

Pedit: nice of you to self-label your fluff for us.

[Satisfaction]

Is it?

[Satisfaction]

One of the first goals of propaganda: wear down the earnest.

[Satisfaction]

It was a direct response to the post right above it, pal.

[Satisfaction]

I’m not the one who pretends to not understand how previews work.

[Satisfaction]

You know how I know this isn’t town vs town? You aren’t even pretending to read my posts in earnest. You’re just posturing around them and rebranding as we go.

[Satisfaction]

Can you stop rolehunting for even one page?

[Satisfaction]

What possible scum motivation would there be for me to knowingly harass the real jail keeper.

[Satisfaction]

Oh. To try to save Arthur maybe.

[Satisfaction]

Day 2 will be a feeding frenzy. GG.

VOTE: ArthurConyl

[Satisfaction]

What possible scum motivation would there be for me to knowingly harass the real jail keeper.

to make this post

Lol. And I’m paranoid.

[Satisfaction]

I don't even know where to start. Last night I starting thinking that it was interesting that more people weren't waving me off. Originally I was just disappointed and frustrated but now I'm wondering if there's anything to be gleaned from that information.

Overall feeling pretty discouraged.

[Satisfaction]

Of course. I didn’t think it was going to happen, but that’s the goal, right?

[Satisfaction]

VOTE: Blue

Is this based on #678?

[Satisfaction]

To me, Bluebell just seems like the next easy elimination with little demonstrated scummy intent. Does anybody have an actual case? I’d rather not just do this again.

[Satisfaction]

I think it was just a free PR kill, in which case the accuracy of her reads has no relevance to whether she dies or not.

Agreed.

[Satisfaction]

*town imploding sounds*

[Satisfaction]

Satisfaction, can you talk us through your thought progression starting when ShellyC claimed jailkeeper?

I didn’t really have any new thought when she claimed. In my mind she was lying. I didn’t care that she claimed.

I still think claiming without being under a hammer is scummy or at least suspicious. I still think that crumb is mechanically useless in this situation. I thought I had caught them red handed and the cavalry would come in, read my post, go back through the relevant events, and we would tie her up and be done with it.

[Satisfaction]

If you are indeed suffering from confirmation bias, the people you need to pull you out aren’t the people who you are suspecting. Nobody came in to help pull my leash.

[Satisfaction]

TW is my best guess right now, but I have no idea and my confidence is shattered.

[Satisfaction]

Yeah I guess. I wouldn’t do it, but apparently some people do.

[Satisfaction]

I’m also looking towards Mundivore who just sat back and watched that happen.

[Satisfaction]

I’ve basically tossed everything in the trash at this point. I tried to go by spotting weird logic/speech patterns then I realized too late that wasn’t helpful. It got Arthur killed. I tried to go by my gut and go on the offense and that didn’t accomplish anything.

For what it’s worth, TW’s voice in my head when I read his posts changed dramatically around when I went off on them. Like he stopped having fun. Maybe less friendly. A touch more careful. Considering the zeal he had for a shelly elimination before I went off the rails, it has been consistently weird to me that he didn’t _seem_ more excited about me wanting her out. That might just be nothing or indicative of non game related stuff.

What I really expected to happen was for you, Mundivore, or Egix to come in and find some weakness to my case. Egix came in and said he didn’t really follow. You and Mundivore didn’t really touch it. Bluebell at least commented on it and gave an opinion.

Not Known wasn’t in that list. I guess because I haven’t really trusted him at any point in the game. But really for no specific reason.

[Satisfaction]

I'm currently trying to do some analysis of whose vote has been where using these events as points of reference. I'm going to tally these up and put them side-by-side.

1. The initial votes on me
2. The initial votes on Arthur
3. The votes that forced shelly=Clark's claim
4. The votes that eliminated Arthur
5. The current votes on me

Have there been any other significant voting events/wagons that I'm missing?

[Satisfaction]

Here are the 5 important events with voters listed in the order they joined the wagon. For some of them, I've also included the order they left the wagon. Don't take that bit as 100% correct and it's missing in some places. It's a little harder to track and I would need another pass on that to finish it up.

Who was on my initial E-1 wagon?

Mundivore (RVS) (1), Egix96 (2),

ArthurConyl

, Not Known 15 (3)

Who was on the first E-1

ArthurConyl

wagon?

Satisfaction (1), Mundivore, TW=Noraa (2),

shelly=Clark

(3)

Who forced

shelly=Clark

to claim?

TW=Noraa, Not Known, Satisfaction, Egix

Who killed

ArthurConyl

?

Bluebell,

shelly=Clark

, Mundivore, TW=Noraa, Satisfaction, Redados

Who was/is on my D2 wagon, E-1?

Not Known 15, Bluebell (1), TW=Noraa,


I'm not sure if we have enough here to do any heavy duty analysis, but I have some observations and thoughts.

1. Mundivore jumped off my wagon early. One that might have been able to be pushed to a miselimination.
   +1 town tickle
   . However, they might have had a hard time justifying staying on through elimination because they entered on RVS so this might be nothing.
2. Egix and Not Known were both on my D1 wagon. Neither of them were on
   Arthur's
   lethal wagon. They both pressed
   shelly's
   claim. I'm not sure what that could mean, it's just interesting to see their names together often.
3. TW/Noraa has been in every wagon in the game except my first one coming out of RVS. I have been on every wagon that wasn't on me, but nobody else has been on all of them.
4. Bluebell jumped off my D2 wagon at a time when it likely could/can be pushed to elimination.
   +1 town tickle
   .
   
5. Redados is only on this list once (
   Arthur's
   hammer), which seems significant to me. Lurky. Scum don't like to hammer, but this was a pretty unanimous hammer with a long wind-up. Pretty uncontroversial.
   +1 scum scratch

Note: this doesn't capture situations when people joined, left, then rejoined but I think that's only happened once (when I left arthur and got on shelly, then rejoined arthur... so I appear later in that list than maybe I should depending on how you look at it).

[Satisfaction]

VOTE: Redados

Did I make a mistake somewhere or are you avoiding interacting with the leading wagons? If so, why?

[Satisfaction]

Redados has only voted two times this game outside of RVS.

Hammered Arthur, and is now on Bluebell.

[Satisfaction]

Mundivore posted this before I started my shelly/TW witch hunt and shelly's claim (emphasis mine):

I mean, any elim is bad if you assume that the player is town lmao. If it gives the town more info, it's a mitigating factor compared to if it's a miselim on a rando (b/c scum already have all the information).

In any case,

my preference for a Satisfaction elim is barely higher than my preference for a shellyc elim. However, Arthur elim looks pretty viable

with shelly joining the wagon and you and Satisfaction both expressing interest.

VOTE: Arthur to

E-2

(AND I COUNTED TWO OR THREE TIMES AND I'M PRETTY SURE THAT'S RIGHT)

pedit: oh look I was right, ty mod

Mundivore switched off of shelly and on to Arthur's fatal wagon behind Bluebell and shelly.

Notice that Mundivore wants to eliminate me, or shelly. Arthur was their third choice.

@Mundivore: Why did you not move back on to shelly once you saw it picking up steam?

[Satisfaction]

This is a good post.

Thank you.

I think you're town and you were tunneling on Shelly.

Why didn't you tell me that yesterday? In fact...

jailkeeper is a really bad fakeclaim, unless she's trying to draw out a counterclaim before she goes down.

I'm not sure if you've read doggos, but Shelly made a really poorly thought out (in my opinion) fakeclaim, so we know that it's in her wheelhouse

... you kind of encouraged me here. You knew I read that game.

[Satisfaction]

I didn't initially vote Arthur because he was at E-1, so you can count this as a vote too?

Sure thing. I missed that. I'll give it half a vote

[Satisfaction]

Egix and Not Known were both on my D1 wagon. Neither of them were on Arthur's lethal wagon. They both pressed shelly's claim. I'm not sure what that could mean, it's just interesting to see their names together often.

Adding to this, neither of them were on Arthur's initial wagon either. More than any other pair, their participation in significant wagons is synchronized.

[Satisfaction]

I feel like Not Known has spent most of this game tunneled on me and/or making weird cases against me.

Example: when I was deep into my assault on shelly & tw...

At this point we need to eliminate Satisfaction, and upon their red flip... probably the worst.

it occurred to me as well but i still think he

{Satisfaction}

reads sincere, just like, mind mendingly confbiased. if he doesn't have any other reads his alignment will get really obvious when one/both of us flip, assuming we're t/t.

This could be very well scum talking about their partner.

So in this scenario, scum!me was accusing town!shelly and scum!tw of bussing each other but in fact that was a double bluff because I was really bussing tw?

Why? Scum!me could have just as easily left TW out of my case and only pressed shelly without pinning my supposed scum partner in the spotlight.

[Satisfaction]

This observation came from a read of Not Known's ISO.

Egix's ISO doesn't really seem to have scummy motivation to me.

[Satisfaction]

Night may disconnect me.

I wouldn’t expect you to be a night kill, personally. If that’s what you mean.

[Satisfaction]

Shelly would fume if we didn’t at least go back through her case on TW today. I’ll hop on that in a bit. Bluebell is right. We have one day. We need to form up some consensus.

[Satisfaction]

Here’s why I don’t think I support policy elimination right now: a miselimination would put us in back-to-back eliminate-or-lose days on D3 and 4 right?

By my count, if we hit scum now it buys us one more miselimination before we are back in ELO. So I think the better question is ‘Who is the single scummiest player?’

I still don’t get why scum!bluebell would have unvoted me today.

[Satisfaction]

I've re-read all of shelly, focusing on the TW case. I got very little there. I really do find most of her case on TW to be useless or unfounded. Despite my initial feelings that shelly had some interesting points, it's just really jammed full of fluff and bad arguments. I was hoping to find some smoking gun that I had missed before but really it's just a big nothingburger as far as I can tell. I don't follow any case for scum!TW from shelly.

[Satisfaction]

I do not want to vote: Bluebell, TW, Redados

I feel most comfortable losing Not Known or Egix today. Throughout the whole game they have been fairly inscrutable.

Early game Egix seemed kind of scummy to me, but less so as the game advances. He's explained this as a playstyle thing. Maybe. It might be increased engagement for performance's sake. Note: I am talking about substantial interaction with the game, not increased posting rate--there are .038 Egix posts per game post (22/570) before the point when shelly called him out for blending in and .047 Egix posts per game post after that point (38/806). About the same. All of that to say, I expected to see a large jump in posting rate from a scum!egix around that time but I did not. The quality of posts have improved in that time.

I've already talked about NK recently. I realize it's not some slam dunk case. It's a gut thing. I just don't see him leading the town to victory. I see him taking potshots.

VOTE: Not Known

I'd also be willing to closely look at a case on Mundivore. I feel like I have had them in my town pool from the very beginning of the game and that momentum may be helping them slide through.

[Satisfaction]

@All I am in a wedding this weekend. I will be mostly out of the loop Friday-Sunday.

[Satisfaction]

Also I realize I said that I want to form consensus and then voted somebody who has zero votes on them. I'm willing to flex if people don't want NK today. We need an elim. I will be around tomorrow.

[Satisfaction]

Vote the worst, now. NOW.

You just keep doing that. How is that supposed to convince us. It’s the same way you been trying to get me eliminated. What’s your case? Help us help you.

***

There’s a 66% chance there is a tracker or a friendly neighbor in the game. Like TW said, if you are either of those, just kill him. You’ve caught scum.

Beyond that, he’s neither confirmable nor protectable tonight. If he’s the real tracker he will likely be murdered. So we leave votes on him for now in case we have a counterclaim but we decide on a different elimination target, right? If we are able to coordinate before deadline.

[Satisfaction]

@egix thanks for the prompt. I’ll re-read.

[Satisfaction]

I just remembered something else from my dive into shelly last night. Shelly flip flopped around on her feelings about TW. She was considering other people and potential pairs. At the time I saw it as her just listing names and it didn’t seem sincere to me. In hindsight, she was actually hunting in her own way.

On the flip side, though, TW was more locked on and confident that shelly was scum. Also we never really got a volunteered “here’s what happened yesterday from my perspective” from TW. It seems to me that would be a town move for somebody so invested in that fight.

I know I was super discouraged and considering subbing out at dawn today because I felt so dumb. Buuuuut we all kind of glossed over that TW was wrong too.

I want to townread TW and I have for most of the game. He’s helpful. Willing to jump on wagons and make things happen. Seems to give a sincere effort to share opinions.

@TW do you feel like you addressed this somewhere and I’m being unfair? (Mobile right now, working from memory). If not, why? I wouldn’t expect you to be as distraught about it as I was, but still we look a little silly.

[Satisfaction]

TW, Satisfaction, Redados, Bluebell confirmed vanilla town or mafia.

NK Tracker or mafia.

We need a post from Egix and Mundivore to make sure we don’t have a counterclaim.

[Satisfaction]

Well right. He intended to hammer before the claim. Am I missing something?

[Satisfaction]

I mean I get that sometimes things are better left unsaid but I don’t see how we can have our cake and eat it too here.

[Satisfaction]

Actually I can’t really think of any reason for you to say that to me that you aren’t essentially violating by bringing it up in the first place. That seems suspicious to me.

[Satisfaction]

VOTE: Redados

I could understand it if you called my post IIoA, but how is it fishing?

[Satisfaction]

Okay but we are talking about it and you’re the one who brought it up. I’ll take a moment to lay out the scenarios after lunch. There aren’t very many of them and they aren’t secrets.

[Satisfaction]

Actually I might just be noobing here.

[Satisfaction]

I see how I could be oversimplifying and there are more options than I originally had in mind.

VOTE: Not Known back to E-1

[Satisfaction]

@Mundi: He’s saying he was blocked, not that I didn’t have an action.

[Satisfaction]

That math is right where my head was when I was second guessing myself earlier.

@TW do you have a sentence or two in you about my thoughts on your D2 entry / lack of reflection?

[Satisfaction]

just bit back the temptation to fake cc him because this is a newbie game and I'm town and not mean.

LAMIST

[Satisfaction]

UNVOTE:

[Satisfaction]

That resonates with me. I think what you're saying is: If there is a Tracker, there is a Mafia Roleblocker (A2) in which case they would have likely blocked shelly and let us kill her D2 instead of nightkilling her. Is that right?

Why would the scum team murder shelly in A2 on night 1 instead of blocking and getting a free kill elsewhere?

[Satisfaction]

Wait. Of course that's not what you're saying. I forgot who I was talking to. Now I'm double confused.

[Satisfaction]

Got it. Thank you. That was hard for me to follow at first but I'm with you now.

[Satisfaction]

I just remembered something else from my dive into shelly last night. Shelly flip flopped around on her feelings about TW. She was considering other people and potential pairs. At the time I saw it as her just listing names and it didn’t seem sincere to me. In hindsight, she was actually hunting in her own way.

On the flip side, though, TW was more locked on and confident that shelly was scum. Also we never really got a volunteered “here’s what happened yesterday from my perspective” from TW. It seems to me that would be a town move for somebody so invested in that fight.

I know I was super discouraged and considering subbing out at dawn today because I felt so dumb. Buuuuut we all kind of glossed over that TW was wrong too.

I want to townread TW and I have for most of the game. He’s helpful. Willing to jump on wagons and make things happen. Seems to give a sincere effort to share opinions.

@TW do you feel like you addressed this somewhere and I’m being unfair? (Mobile right now, working from memory). If not, why? I wouldn’t expect you to be as distraught about it as I was, but still we look a little silly.

[Satisfaction]

I think the scenario Not Known is describing looks like this:

1. Shelly claims JK
   
2. Arthur flips green.
3. Shelly gets blocked by the Roleblocker so she can't luck into jailing her would-be killer.
4. Tracker!NK tracks me--his top scum read. He doesn't need to track Shelly because there was no counterclaim and he knows the setup includes JK.
5. Shelly puts Tracker!NK in jail blocking him. NK reminded her that she was the likely night kill target so she would have to lock up scum to save herself. TW was her obvious scum read so scum!TW probably wouldn't make the deathblow, so she went for another.
6. Shelly gets stabbed.

Is this the scenario you are commenting on @TW?

I think you're right, I'm just trying to follow this all the way out to make sure.

[Satisfaction]

Shellyc was near-confirmed town at that point.

When we all wake up D2 and see her still alive and two other dead townies I think any towncred she has would start to deteriorate, right?

[Satisfaction]

roleblocking off the jailkeeper

By "off the jailkeeper" you mean roleblocking anybody other than the jailkeeper, right?

[Satisfaction]

Wait, what about the possibility of shelly jailing Not Known. I think that's what he's proposing here.

[Satisfaction]

Right, thank you. That's all I needed. The greed required for mafia to leave her unblocked... just seems unnecessarily aggressive.

VOTE: Not Known

[Satisfaction]

Well played.

I should have followed my gut on the PR hunting situation.

[Satisfaction]

We all did. Lol

[Satisfaction]

I really couldn’t have asked much more from this game. It was a pleasure. Thank you all and nice to meet you.