Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Endgame

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:48 am

Three town

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 2:55 am

Frogster, probably Menalque, maybe GL or DV idk i havent had the motivation to reread those two slots yet.

Unless you are hard claiming something I am going to treat CSF as conf town, but given that Nero never said anything I doubt you actually have anything in that regard.

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:06 am

I cannot tell

might also explain my lack of scum reads

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:36 am

looking back I wonder if ydrasse was thought to be the actual vig based off her reaction to the HEM claim

buuuut

I feel like whatever mechanical benefit there might be to soft claiming is actually just miniscule compared to the morale boost it would give us

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:42 am

Titus, if this factors into your decision of whether to speak clearly or not:

Yesterday was an extremely grueling day in that it was fairly stagnant between two wagons, the Menalque slot and the Something_Smart slot. We ultimately landed on Something_Smart in what was probably a town-driven move and flipped him as town. There's this weird group of GL/Fire/Myself/DV who all kinda suspect scum must be among us numbers wise but also I get the feeling none of us really believe there is scum in each other (okay that might not be entirely true). but that has made sorting today wildly confusing and demotivating at least for me

to know that we have been barking up the wrong tree for like three days would be a breath of fresh air and let several town minds re-examine the game with a fresh and more accurate mindset

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:56 am

In post 5685, Nero Cain wrote:How did everyone know csf was an even night vig?

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:59 am

In post 7534, Nero Cain wrote:Ausuka
Dannflor
Menalque
fireisredsir
------------------------
Datisi
Thestatusquo
Frogsterking
scamper
GuiltyLion
DeasVail
Cat Scratch Fever

if you are referring to this fire

Nero clarified that his reads list was reversed lol

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:04 am

In post 6529, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 6502, Dannflor wrote:I do feel deep down S_S might be town

even though I have them listed at the bottom of my PoE

part of it is that I've been fooled by them so many times before because they play rather unintuitively as scum. but there have been quite a few moments that have given me pause. still I think my skill at reading them is very bad so I've been largely fine with them being a possible lim. Mena is someone who I see flipping scum more often.

but if my gut gut feelings are right then there is at least one more still hiding (and I also don't think they are scum together that seems rlly unlikely) which means I'm open to exploring other optiosn today

but I feel like I need more to latch onto in order to do that and I'm having trouble figuring out where to start with slots like fire or deasvail or whatever
Also like...I cleared CSF because I felt like the reaction to my test when she came in thread was good but she's pretty much done fuck all today and that "Did S_S really just come back in the thread after x!" post with a vote when S_S has posted in this thread a HELL of a lot more than she has makes me wonder if that clear was wrong.

In post 6530, Dannflor wrote:CSF is a confirmed killing role

scum vig does not exist in normals

so either she is a town vig or some sort of gated serial killer? but SS told me to go to tin foil jail for that one

In post 6531, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 6530, Dannflor wrote:CSF is a confirmed killing role

scum vig does not exist in normals

so either she is a town vig or some sort of gated serial killer? but SS told me to go to tin foil jail for that one
It is midnight and my brain is melting.

You are correct. Just goes to show that theres no reason lurkers have to be scum IG.

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:05 am

you're not crazy GL

I just have a terrible memory lol

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:06 am

I thought Shea was town slipping originally

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:10 am

if that's the thing that does Shea in

after everything

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:11 am

I thought she was just TPR flavor scummy

...unless??

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:12 am

possibly nero just wanted to live and shoot HEM/CSF tonight?

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:12 am

ig i should probably stop speculating idk how actually helpful it is until either Titus says something concrete or CSF says something concrete

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:13 am

no you are right

I don't know what happened or is happening

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:19 am

ydrasse really does look like vig who didn't believe HEM's claim in retrospect ngl

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:20 am

wow this is the most fun this game has been in weeks

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:23 am

i am GOING to throw myself into an eternal void

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:39 am

dunno if I still think Mena needs to be scum

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:39 am

VOTE: CSF

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:50 am

UNVOTE: csf

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:47 am

Cat Scratch Fever (4): scamper, GuiltyLion, Frogsterking, Titus
Menalque (2): Datisi, DeasVail
DeasVeil (1): Menalque
Dannflor (1): Ausuka
Titus (1): Thestatusquo
Not voting (3): Cat Scratch Fever, fireisredsir, Dannflor
Day 4 will end in 5 days, 15 hours, 1 minute. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

something like this

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:47 am

VOTE: Cat Scratch Fever

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:50 am

did i mention im throwing myself into a screaming void

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:57 am

there's plenty of room

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:13 am

I don't really buy that you haven't realized what's going on re: CSF

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:14 am

like even just glancing at the last page should bring up some questions

it reads like you're playing dumb

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:21 am

CSF claimed not actually a vig

there has been some suspicion on you because you forgot that before and I feel like it's more likely for a scum partner to forget her claim than a townie to forget that

Titus has softed that she is actually the vig

I felt like your reaction to seeing votes on CSF on the previous page would've been different but maybe you just didn't see that at all

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:25 am

like idk it's weird to me that you opened the game to the last page and had no questions about CSF or people talking about her

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:26 am

go for it

Dannflor · Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:27 am

In post 7920, Thestatusquo wrote:Idk the analysis that this would make me buddies seems pretty surface level because it seems to forget almost willfully that every time i forgot it was in the context of wanting to Lim them.

I'd want to eliminate my buddy too if they were on borrowed time anyway and doing fuck all

Dannflor · Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:33 am

my eyes are going blurring from staring at spreadsheets so instead i will stare at this website

Dannflor · Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:34 am

also hot take but D1 scum flips in larges are usually bad for town motivation long term

Dannflor · Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:44 am

yeah I think it's just generally a little harder to find the rest of the scum as opposed to if scum flips D2 or D3

i agree there is probable a point of diminishing returns and win rate

Dannflor · Thu Oct 06, 2022 7:02 am

I'd really prefer Menalque over Shea if you are vigging

Shea at least has a pulse

Dannflor · Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:09 pm

Oh you know what I completely forgot it was ConManMick killed not VPBaltar

Dannflor · Sun Oct 09, 2022 5:34 am

Oh my god I’m so mad at myself that obscure slot didn’t die like days ago

Dannflor · Sun Oct 09, 2022 5:35 am

I still kinda lean Frogster here but I’m interested in hearing your case Datisi

Dannflor · Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:19 am

Is there a specific order people want

Dannflor · Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:09 am

In post 8047, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 8043, Ausuka wrote:hardclaim Informed Townie, there are 7 scum in the game. you're welcome
What the fuck? How are we ever supposed to beat that? Like I know we got vigs, but triple masons and informed townie vs 7 groupscum?? That makes me not even want to play anymore.

I don’t believe this is real

Dannflor · Mon Oct 10, 2022 4:08 pm

Also VT

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:28 am

i don't know that obscure tunnels a partner the entire time he is in the game?

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:31 am

In post 1748, Gamma Emerald wrote:I also see Frog and obscure being pally, kinda makes me think I’m onto something
VOTE: Frogsterking
I’ll go here first because I think there’s better traction here

I guess if I'm thinking logically this post never gets made about two scum partners

Gamma does like to bus but it seems way more likely that this was made to anti-associate from obscure by calling him pally with a townie

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:43 am

VOTE: fireisredsir

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:45 am

I really don't think it's Frogster anymore.

I don't think Shea is playing to endgame.

Fire is. Too many reflective step backs my guy

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:52 am

I think the counter point is that Gamma likes to bus and could totally bus both his partners at once

but I don't really think that's *how* you bus both your partners at once

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:53 am

In post 2137, Gamma Emerald wrote:Trust: scamper, Ausuka, Aristeia, xofelf, ydrasse, fireisredsir, marcistar
Middle ground: DeasVail, Firebringer, Nero Cain, VP Baltar, Dannflor, GuiltyLion, Irrelephant11
Distrust: ConManMick, Datisi,
humaneatingmonkey, Frogsterking, obscure

ALSO also also

small thing but what MANIAC puts three scum buddies all in a row in a reads list

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:55 am

In post 8146, Datisi wrote:my annoyance is because both shea and frogs feel so fucking scummy!!! but i've been vague thinking about this game and it's like, the more they feel like silly townies doing silly things

I am partial to this feeling

it's exactly how I've been feeling about frogster but I think if I take a step back and zoom out Frogster just doesn't make sense as scum

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:00 am

I also think Shea would play it a lot cooler in terms of his "good reads" as scum

I know at first with the Gamma flip I was a little leery and thought it was like, scum who was mad about not getting bus credit

but I think after a certain point scum is way more conscious about that and wants to wait for people to give them credit. town has a certain pride in their reads that scum does not have, scum just wanna get town read.

I think most people know that saying oh look how good my reads were over and over doesn't actually get you town read

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:02 am

In post 8154, fireisredsir wrote:if y'all don't ever flip frog this game i will be big mad

this doesn't really feel genuine given your trajectory on frog

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:20 am

In post 8162, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 8159, Dannflor wrote:
In post 8154, fireisredsir wrote:if y'all don't ever flip frog this game i will be big mad
this doesn't really feel genuine given your trajectory on frog
why not?

im not digging up receipts right now but i feel like before you cased frog you at one point felt pretty strongly that this was frog's town game

i guess maybe you getting big mad about someone you've only more recently gotten confident about doesn't match up with my image of you as a player

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:44 am

ausuka do you still feel good about your scum read on fire

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:11 pm

I mean, scum!fire has to eliminate x number of townies

say he eliminates town!frogster and like town!shea

he is forced to start scum reading you again anyway and now he already has the groundwork laid. I think it's much easier as scum in this position to not be trying to push multiple things at once and frogster is probably the perceived easiest miselimination (in a scum!fire world)

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:12 pm

Like I will often backtrack a lot as scum even when I know I'm gonna have to come back around to a scum read again because

a. it gets you town read
b. you don't actually have to push there until you need it to be dead

Dannflor · Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:14 pm

fire ignored my comment about reflective step backs so he is scum

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:35 am

I was mostly joking

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:46 am

it was a joke

only if i squint and conf bias enough

it is a point for fire scum

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:42 am

Spoiler: day 1

Spoiler: day 2

Spoiler: day 3

Spoiler: day 4

Spoiler: day 5

ok im really reaching for an excuse to procrastinate work

my eyes started to glaze over half way through so apologies if i got a name wrong

one thing that stood out to me is 2.10 and 2.11 might be vaguely clearing for deasvail?

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:50 am

1.9 probably vaguely points to Shea?

idk I don't usually put much stock in VCA except for very rarely I think it can give some useful information

but seeing two competing wagons with one being all town and the other having two scum on it makes me think

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:54 am

eh but then if both wagons are on town you can just argue scum are happy being wherever

I'm not great at this

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:04 am

ugh I wrongly colored firebringer as red in 1.5-1.7 sorry titus

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:23 am

Yeah I don't like VCA either I don't know why I tried

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:29 am

In post 8263, Thestatusquo wrote:I'm having a hard time deciding whether you feel like you're town actually trying to weigh pros and cons of various people or if you're scum keeping your options open because you know you need to come back to x miselims this game and I was having a hard time putting my finger on it until, ironically, you made these posts.

mmmm I don't really know how to answer this.

while I've changed my mind a couple times (thinking it is frogster to thinking it is fire today), I think I've been generally pretty clear about why those changes happen

I am generally a very indecisive person and I can be easily swayed but I don't *feel* like I've been playing to keep options open. really I'm trying to play to eliminate options. I get very excited when I see something that I feel like means X can't be scum.

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:33 am

sure

that was me arguing against a town read, not arguing for a scum read

I wouldn't trust a town read on me on the basis of "he can't make up his mind"

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:49 am

In post 8273, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 8271, Dannflor wrote:sure

that was me arguing against a town read, not arguing for a scum read

I wouldn't trust a town read on me on the basis of "he can't make up his mind"
I guess my issue is that I don't really see you having any preferences really besides fire. But you sure keep coming up with vague reasons people you're town reading could possibly be scum that you might be able to come back to later, but you don't actually seem that invested in them being scum.

How convinced are you that fireisred is scum and why?

at this point in the game I think everyone left is relatively towny

it is very hard for me to get as confident a scum read on someone as I could on say obscure

everyone left is also a very good player so I really feel like when I *do* get confident on something I have to triple check my work elsewhere because well I hate being wrong.

fireisredsir is the slot that I feel like I have the least amount of reasons to rule out. he is the slot I've suspected the most off and on throughout the game. and I feel like he is the slot most playing for a day past this day phase.

frogster seemed the most obviously scummy to me and he was where I was fixated on at day start, but I did my double check thing and I feel like I found pretty good reasons to rule him out. granted, I don't think everyone agrees with that.

I've thought you were town Shea through most of the game. I've had a couple moments of doubt, largely at the end of the previous day. But I don't think you are really playing to end game and I think the way you've behaved concerning your relationships to flipped scum is... unlikely to be scum. I've seen you play scum before and you're more subtle than that.

That being said, I won't lie and say that I will be super surprised if I'm wrong on fire. I find this point in the game really hard and I wish I could have more confidence. I'm continuing to look at fire and the other slots that feel like I could most be wrong on right now because I'm looking for that AHAH moment that affirms my confidence and solidifies that I'm going in the right place.

and I realize from that outside that isn't super detectable from sorting and keeping options open but I'm probably gonna keep doing and keep posting in thread about it because like it's the only way I'm gonna end this day feeling comfortable about where I'm voting

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:51 am

In post 3509, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 2844, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 2840, Nero Cain wrote:redfire what are your reads rn?
prob most interested in looking for scum in dann, shea, SS, marci rn. a slight level below that would be xofelf and gamma

strongest TRs on ausuka, scamper, you. not quite as strong on datisi, hem, obscure, ydra, frog. then DV and GL are kinda weak townleans ig

i think thats everyone
okay this is funny
our strongest TRs line up but aside from that there's notable variance
I think I'll pencil in fire as town for this

right now I think this post is like one of the strongest points for fire!town

I know Ausuka disagrees

but it seems just like SO BAD. aren't you going to be more careful about town reading a buddy?

but this might be gamma specific so I'm going through Gamma's scum games to see if I can find a similar type of read on a buddy

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:52 am

In post 8280, Thestatusquo wrote:When have you seen me play scum before?

team mafia

I wasn't in your game but I was on Pine's team

the game was kind of a clusterfuck

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:59 am

wow I think that's the towniest post frogster has made all game

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:31 am

In post 2766, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 2726, Thestatusquo wrote:The dogpiling jokes aside I will give something_smart a chance to get involved in the game I suppose.

VOTE: Gamma

Gamma who are the scum and why
Marci
One of you/obscure
humaneatingmonkey
And maybe someone else

my gamme meta dive was a bust but it did make me come back to this

how likely was it that gamma was scum reading ALL of his partners on D2? feels more likely even for a known busser to be town reading one of your buddies

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:47 am

In post 977, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 925, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 924, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Has your read on Gamma changed?
I felt like our 1v1 was making the game intolerable so i backed off to give it more thought.
What are your current thoughts on me?

In post 495, Gamma Emerald wrote:GL what are your thoughts on me specifically?

seems to be something gamma says with relative frequency

both of these from separate games where gamma was town

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:36 pm

i don't wanna crash everyone talking about how town i am by i also casing myself and making everyone paranoid

but shea if you are town you have to ask yourself why I would heavily push against the dueling wagons of you/S_S and instead heavily push for obscure

I mean I guess it depends how sincere you think I was about killing obscure there

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:39 pm

In post 8296, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 8284, Dannflor wrote:wow I think that's the towniest post frogster has made all game
why

I was being mildly hyperbolic but I was feeling town vibes from both Shea and Frogster that page for engaging with each other and continuing to try to find more real time reasons for reads

I feel as scum in a game of this size it's very easy to just pick stuff out from the game that looks bad or good to form reads on people, but both slots were showing interest in like real time sorting which I think is a little more pro town this late in the game. and I think it is especially impressive/surprising from frogster who seemed like he had been locked into his reads for the past two day phases.

maybe I'm being too easily impressed by frogster idk

Dannflor · Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:41 pm

In post 8301, fireisredsir wrote:lmao right after that i talked him into a hem townread oops yea flip me

I will be honest and I feel a little sick saying this because I would hate if I just had a bad game and this was applied to me, but some of my suspicion towards you is simply burden of proficiency

you were also pretty consistently against the obscure wagon

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:51 am

I will try to reset and relook at Frog for you

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 5:08 am

In post 5712, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Dannflor if scamper has been protecting you because you guys are in a hood/masons then you can hardclaim.

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 5:53 am

I don't know, I think GL has been present enough and I definitely relate to the feeling of not wanting to get down and dirty unless you have the time to do it *right*

I also think his hang up about not understanding why Fire would do a reflective step back on his GL scum read is genuine. He's being a little stubborn about it in a way that I think scum would just let themselves be persuaded out of.

In general I just really like GL's trajectories this game.

Also, another thing that you might not put much stock in because it related to sussing you lol

but I really liked his reaction to the CSF!scum reveal.

Spoiler:

none of this feels like something scum would come up with. I don't really think scum would think about this. OR, if scum did remember this and wanted to use it to sus someone, I think they'd just be able to go pull it up because they recognized it in the moment and it stuck out to them. like this sort of very loose memory connection seems very hard to fake as scum

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 6:55 am

In post 8323, Thestatusquo wrote:I feel like the finding my suspicious due to the CSF was garbage personally.

why

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:25 am

this is true

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:05 pm

no...

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:55 pm

titus can you full claim

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 6:20 pm

UNVOTE:

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:33 pm

Spoiler:

one thing I'll say, fire's trajectory on flipped slots late D2 and D3 does not make it seem like he is informed of anyone's alignment. especially the later flips, posts #6414 - 7073 all come in kinda quick succession and honestly at that point I think any scum who sees their partner probably doomed in a situation like that vote parks their partner. or maybe they vote park the competing wagon. this whole swap back and forth thing is really unintuitive imo.

like... I suspected fire off of memory that he had a lot of pushes onto town while simultaneously soft-defending town. Which, the above kinda confirms yes. but the above doesn't really look like he's trying to keep obscure/menalque alive. nor does it look like he's trying to convincingly bus! it feels like town waffling idk

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:36 pm

soft-defending scum*

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:42 pm

frogster's whole thing is revisionist history

like ragging on masons for allowing SS wagon to happen while he was actively campaigning for SS throughout that day phase as I look at it

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:42 pm

frogster can you vote yourself again for a minute

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:47 pm

I don't know looking back especially at the tweet > S_S > Mena wagons I feel like a lot of the stuff I was hard on fire for in my head applies to frogster worse in the end

like frogster hard hard defends scum so many times and then backs off as soon as he needs to

it is so much more agend-y

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:47 pm

In post 8377, Frogsterking wrote:I'm considering hammering myself. If I do then I want to make a tier list of who posted the weirdest shittiest frog case.

ill make it easy by not posting a case

VOTE: frogster

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:48 pm

idk this is what I was feeling at the start of day and I feel like this far in the game I am prone to overthinking and should just stick with my instincts

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:48 pm

if it's not frogster my other idea is just that Titus is a serial killer lmao

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:49 pm

it's the only thing that makes it make sense to me why nero cain wouldn't just kill scum but lol

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:50 pm

trapped in my own mind is pretty accurate

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:51 pm

also I will admit all of gammas interactions towards fire do read like pocketing versus buddy interactions

*especially* for gamma

Baltar has the most awkward interactions with frogster out of everyone here ok im done i said i wasn't going to case

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:53 pm

if titus is scum tho i dunno how she wins here so I guess it's not something I'm particularly worried about beyond like

I will hate everything about this game if it turns out we cleared scum twice ina fucking row

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:53 pm

In post 8391, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 8388, Dannflor wrote:trapped in my own mind is pretty accurate
Yes it looks you are, and it lead you down a very ineffective path that made no sense

so am i scum or not???

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:59 pm

what can I say I have my weaknesses

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:09 pm

In post 8116, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Frogsterking

this one

Dannflor · Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:20 pm

oh so maybe that is a case made by scum?

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:03 am

Frog do you actually think Dease is scum or are you just being facetious

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:25 am

I thought obscure taking offense over Shea claiming he was faking to maybe be indicative of s/t?

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:29 am

UNVOTE:

someone here is reacting to pressure very differently from everyone else

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:32 am

that was overly vague sorry

I got my updated covid booster yesterday and I'm feeling a little feverish and staring at screen is bad

I'll try to explain in a minute

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:51 am

basically fire I'm leaning back towards you because I feel like you're the only one really playing to endgame here, idk that might sound counterintuitive to people but I feel like fire's reactions to everything today have been just... a little too cool.

Now, I figure you're generally a calm person and not someone to really get big mad and you want people to like you. I understand that because I'm exactly the same way, but I feel like there is something missing in how you're playing today.

You keep saying over and over again that you understand why people want to eliminate you and that you're just fine with that as long as Frogster goes and generally just being very accepting of the fact that you might die here. But... and I can't believe I'm about to agree with Frogster here, it does read like you're trying to pocket people and survive more than actually solve the game. I don't think Frogster believes that blowing up at everyone and calling their cases trash with no reasoning is really going to help him get to endgame. That's how you make enemies and get people to yeet you because you're annoying. That reads like genuine town frustration. Ausuka, even if she does tend towards coming off as overly defensive, I think knows to reel that in instead of lashing out when a modicum of suspicion lands on her. Ausuka is very well setup to go to end game and I'm sure scum!Ausuka would know that. I don't think she'd jeopardize that when she can so easily just let suspicion pass over her. Shea gets pissed off about the reasons people suspect him every single time and I really don't think Shea thinks that reiterating how much he bussed his partners is how scum!Shea thinks he's going to make end game. He is also consistently revaluating everyone left in the suspect pool and trying to sort them. Yes, you might look at that as "keeping your options open," but I think more important than that for scum right now is to make friends. The tides can easily turn against whoever is scum right now and putting suspicion on quite literally everyone is counterintuitive to surviving this round, especially when the easiest thing is to just go with Frogster or Fire as miselim candidates.

I think it is instinctual as town to suspect people who are pushing you. I don't see that with you Fire. I don't really care how good your reasons are for scum reading Frogster or town reading me or the rest of us, I feel like just once this day phase you'd let paranoia creep in about the people pushing you and you'd try to reevaluate me or someone else.

I don't see that happening and it makes it seem you are more focused on getting through this phase than actually solving the game.

I don't think Guilty Lion's reasons to town read Fire are very good because I don't understand what GL actually expects scum!fire to do differently in this situation. Hard push both Frogster and GL as scum after CSF flips scum? That doesn't really make sense. Fire just needs to leave the door open to go back to suspecting GL later and all he has to do is town flip Frogster to do that. There's only one scum left (or at least there better be), so pushing two people when you want one person to help you this phase seems counterintuitive for scum.

I don't know. There's just not enough paranoia or WIM to try to solve the game from you Fire. Like, what if you are wrong on Frogster? Why are you so content with you being eliminated here? I feel like you are doing the least of real-time solving this phase out of everyone left in the game - let me know if that seems unfair. Your focus seems to be

It just seems like you are the odd one out in terms of your reaction to pressure and I don't think it's particularly towny.

I don't know this might be bad reasoning I'm feeling incredibly achey and feverish and a little delirious right now so it's possible this read is horrid but I just can't shake the feeling you'd have a little more self-doubt here as town??

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:56 am

In post 8489, fireisredsir wrote:actually thinking about it, as someone who doesn't really like arguing or being around emotional arguments at all, idk why i play this game lmao

I don't either

I like the more collaborative nature of it generally

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:56 am

meh idk

i guess i just think it is in [fire, frogster]

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:00 am

In post 0, T3 wrote:ConManMick was eliminated Day 1. He was a Vanilla Townie.
Aristeia died Night 1. She was a Vanilla Townie.
VP Baltar died Night 1. He was a Mafia Goon.
Morning Tweet was eliminated Day 2. She was a Mafia Goon.
marcistar died Night 2. She was a Town Odd Night Vigilante.
Enchant died Night 2. He was a Town Universal Backup.
Something_Smart was eliminated Day 3. He was a Vanilla Townie.
Ydrasse died Night 3. She was a Town Mason.
Cat Scratch Fever was eliminated Day 4. She was a Mafia Goon.
Menalque died Night 4. He was a Mafia Goon.
scamper died Night 4. He was a Town Mason.

so Marci shot VP Baltar

if there was an SK they would have to have targeted Ari

Marci was killed by group scum

Enchant could have been serial killer hit idk?

ydrasse would have had to have been doubled up on. which I guess isn't implausible if SK assumed like scamper would get hit.

Menalque would have had to have been SK hit.

idk. I mean I guess it is *possible?* it would be so convenient though

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:01 am

[quote="In post 8497, fireisredsir"][/quote]
I was wondering if he was fixed in his scum read of you because he literally has to

like you're the only other viable elimination right now

and I don't really buy he actually scum reads Deas

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:01 am

In post 8497, fireisredsir wrote:and i don't think that matches up with his town play

frog town absolutely has reads. they're usually pretty out there, but he definitely has them, and he will let you know about them, and there is actual thought going on behind them

which is why i don't think his response about how everyone's case on him is trash but still hesitant to really call anyone scum off it is not towny at all

that was supposed to quote this

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:05 am

I don't know how much more productive I can be today, I feel like I'm just talking myself in circles over and over again

This game is so large and I think if I stare at it long enough I can find a reason to town or scum read everyone

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:07 am

I feel Enchant makes more sense as a vig shot than an SK shot just my 2 cents

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:08 am

yeah not shooting CSF is fucking weird

I don't know what to say about it

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:09 am

VOTE: Frogster

ok let's elim scum

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:46 am

In post 8527, DeasVail wrote:It is so provocative to be targeting his most likely ally like that

I mean everything he's posted has been provactive

it's definitely not out of style

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:19 am

In post 8538, Datisi wrote:
In post 8509, Dannflor wrote:This game is so large and I think if I stare at it long enough I can find a reason to town or scum read everyone
i wanna hear the scumcase on me pls

you know i have actually been in a game before where town claimed masons with scum

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:20 am

not that I think scamper did that you just reminded me of that forsaken game

Dannflor · Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:25 am

yeah town!katsuki calimed masons with scum!lld

I think I got quick elimmed on like d4 because ???

I had almost managed to wipe that game from my memory

Dannflor · Sat Oct 15, 2022 6:22 pm

In post 8584, fireisredsir wrote:sorry i don't really have much to add at this point

i did start to have some doubts but idk if it's useful to entertain them

i think my reasons to townread everyone else are stronger anyway

are they specific doubts

Dannflor · Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:12 pm

VOTE: frogster

Dannflor · Sat Oct 15, 2022 8:21 pm

Shea do you think this is going to get productive at any point

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:12 am

what was the purpose of withholding?

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:18 am

the night phase didn't really give me any newfound clarity on anyone

I am interested in who fire thinks scum is now, given I don't really think they even had a backup suspect yesterday?

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:24 am

I had a brief moment before twilight where I was wondering if Shea was trying to goad Frogster into cluttering up the thread and making his elimination happen

but when I read back I decided that's a pretty uncharitable interpretation

I don't super like fire having some vague doubts about Frog being town at EoD yesterday but not so much as hinting at another suspect. It felt more like posting doubt just to post doubt when I think it is natural to have paranoia about at least one other person in this game state?

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:06 am

VOTE: fire

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:13 am

and I mean there's something to be said for taking out datisi who was scum reading fire and leaving titus in the game who could take a hero shot and put us directly into lylo which is like exactly what fire would need as scum here

idk leaving titus alive feels like the maximum WIFOM move and you usually want to avoid too much WIFOM if you are already deep scum?

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:50 am

In post 8722, Titus wrote:
In post 8716, Dannflor wrote:what was the purpose of withholding?
If scum thought I was out of shots or incompetent, they'd let me live and I get another shot off. I generally get better as the game progresses.

ok but isn't it Bad Actually to take a shot now and put us on evens

I'd rather have a 3p lylo if we get there than a 4p lylo

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:59 am

to deny us a potential elimination and also make chances of hitting scum 1/4 instead of 1/3 in lylo?

like that's just straight up -EV

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:01 am

anyway I still think this is fire

I think fire is playing in the only way he can as scum and I think realistically there would've been some more desperation and genuine paranoia to his solving yesterday if he were town

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 4:14 pm

Fire can you name a time you’ve been this uh defeatist

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:44 pm

In post 8730, fireisredsir wrote:even if i come up with something i wouldn't really recommend sheeping my reads over scamper's and datisi's

cause like im struggling to see this as something someone with a green role pm says

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:54 pm

In post 8734, fireisredsir wrote:i think ive very often trusted others' reads over mine, especially after being repeatedly wrong. and ive also at times been p accepting of my fate

I just think it's weird to be like, "hey these guys who think I'm scum are probably right" as town

Dannflor · Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:25 pm

UNVOTE:

ok i want you to have some time

Dannflor · Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:12 am

my VCA conclusions lead me to believe that no one is scum with another person here

Dannflor · Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:00 pm

VOTE: fire

ok that was some time

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:40 am

you're a lost cause

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:46 am

thank you for trying fire if you are town

...I think I still wanna kill you tho

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:50 am

why does he hop off there as scum?

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:50 am

why does he hop off there as scum?

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:50 am

oh no i datisi'd

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:57 am

In post 5186, DeasVail wrote:Also Obscure I just wanted to say that I'm glad you're here and please don't feel the pressure to be around or post more than you can. as long as you can post within the game rules' activity requirements you're good in my book

In post 8068, DeasVail wrote:Also Obscure played a pretty solid scumgame

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:59 am

In post 5454, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:
In post 5447, Nero Cain wrote:part of me just thinks is scum. If we let her live and she's scum she'll just claim roleblocked.
We can lim her tomorrow then if that's how it plays out.

Idk this seems unnecessary to me

In post 5455, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:VOTE: Deas

In post 5457, T3 wrote:

Morning Tweet (8): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, Dannflor, fireisredsir, Datisi, Ausuka, Ydrasse
DeasVail (4): marcistar, Enchant, obscure, Cat Scratch Fever
obscure (1): GuiltyLion
Something_Smart (1): Morning Tweet
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, scamper, Thestatusquo
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

I want to say that defending MT and jumping on DV instead with obscure feels unlikely for scum to do. like just hammer MT at this point if the other viable wagon is your much more well hidden scum buddy instead of a townie

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:01 am

MT claimed friendly neighbor

if the argument that MT should just be given a night to prove her role is listened to then DV probably dies

there's only like a day left on the deadline at this time

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:10 am

In post 8805, fireisredsir wrote:csf is on antispew then they probably want to set it up so it looks like she's pushing a town miselim

ok well then we have to consider that CSF's other big push before she was outed was you

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 10:32 am

I understand being down on yourself for having bad reads or not being obv town enough or some other reason

I understand not wanting to fight your own elimination if you think the game isn't that hard anyway

to an extent

but I still think fire is just all *too* willing to let himself be eliminated and I can't shake the feeling he is trying to look town more than he actually believes that its fine if he goes here

I had the same feeling last day phase and I feel like he should have at least a twinge more urgency to not be eliminated now that we're one day closer to lylo and... I don't see it

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 10:57 am

I understand the pov i suppose but I don't think it is genuine

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:49 pm

In post 8831, fireisredsir wrote:im not like that down on myself rn or even really thinking the game is that easy. i just, like, accept that there's not really anything i can say that will convince people im town.

I guess I'm just surprised you haven't even tried to town case yourself? like not once?

Like. This does not ring true to me because OBVIOUSLY there are reasons to town read you.

there is a reason we voted Frogster over you yesterday. there is a reason that guilty lion town reads you or at least has town read you. there is a reason Shea doesn't think you're scum.

this defeatism *does not* make sense from a town perspective. I think that you think this is the towniest thing you can do right now but it literally does not make sense.

people have a variety of reasons to town read you as they do with everyone in the game. I have kept coming back to you as scum but there have definitely been times where I've talked myself out of it as well. It feels like you're hoping people will talk themselves out of it when you say stuff like this because clearly multiple people in this game have shown the propensity to do so??? And for you to straight up not acknowledge that feels more LAMIST then it does actually townie, because I think you would acknowledge the reality of the game which is that while yes the game is very hard it is hard precisely because it is not obvious who the scum is. the reality of the game is that if you argued hard that you were town you would probably survive this round. because people are looking for reasons to change their mind. and instead of appealing to that directly you are going about it by saying shit like "there's nothing I can do" which feels like a much more manipulative way to appeal to people without actually look like you're doing that. And I don't think you would care about that at all as town

Like you are not doomed here? There is no damnable evidence or associatives that tie you to scum in a definitive way, if there was you would have died a month ago. so I don't get why you say there's nothing you can do to convince people you aren't scum. you did yesterday. why not today? no one has been tunneling you except for frogster? and frogster is dead now

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:55 pm

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:56 pm

it's been "elim me and frogster" and now it's "elim me and DV" and I do think town!fire would feel bad about getting frogster wrong but I don't think he'd go back to the exact same pattern of play

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:12 pm

In post 8743, fireisredsir wrote:i do still feel like a lot of the stuff with GL is kinda sus, but a big part of it also was how he handled HEM vs obscure, and that just reads as a lot more uninformed knowing that both were actually scum rather than just obscure. he'd probably be my second choice tho

In post 8743, fireisredsir wrote:shea i just don't think is scum. i don't really want to get into it. ik he's next in the poe but i don't think my reasons will convince anyone not to flip him anyway so whatever

ok

can you actually get into your read on shea? I feel like it's important if you're town

also like saying GL is kinda sus and he's your second choice doesn't seem congruent with how you're behaving this phase

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:14 pm

are congruous and congruent the same word

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:19 pm

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:24 pm

I do think perhaps I approach the game fundamentally different from you fire

I'm just not sure that I see the reality of this game and your actions and your words as at all congruent with each other

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:30 pm

In post 8866, fireisredsir wrote:im not in a great mood rn sorry if thats leaking through at all i don't mean to be rude or anything

i can try to towncase myself and be more explicit on reasons for GL and shea tomorrow if people think that would be useful

you're fine

I'm sorry too if you're town because I realize what I'm saying is probably pretty frustrating to respond to

if you're not town i have no empathy you scum fuck

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:13 pm

In post 5148, obscure wrote:omg deas is finally being wagoned!!

also i'm alive. but apparently people want to kill me because i'm busy >.> like i get it, i clearly can't keep up with the game so feel free to just off me, but i'm still a villager.

the length of the phases is just not for me

In post 5165, obscure wrote:the alternative is saying that i will participate enough to figure out the mafia with certainty or something and i have a realistic view of my time.

obviously i'd prefer if we kill deas but i'm not going to be an asshole about it. i'm just a vanilla townie.

i think one of the reasons i scum read fire so much rnow is it feels very reminiscent of obscure and that tactic was like pretty effective at getting the pressure off at the time

Dannflor · Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:02 pm

In post 8890, DeasVail wrote:Re: Dannflor I did have the thought that if I were solo scum here needing to survive to the end, I would be wanting to appear as pure and collaborative and pro-town as possible.

I mean, there is a reason I'm trying so hard right now and why I am currently pushing so hard for fire and it's actually exactly because I do not want to go to endgame

I am *dreading* this game going another phase. I am dreading winding up in a LyLo and having to defend myself as a deepwolf. I'm dreading the pressure of having to either figure out who the scum is and/or defend myself sufficiently. I am scared about this game.

And that's why I really can't relate to fire here and why I think he's scum. I don't sense any sort of like... urgency to solve the game. Like yeah, he pushed on DV when prompted but it's like, if I was in his position my first instinct would be like WAIT DON'T KILL ME I'M AT LEAST GONNA SOLVE THE GAME BEFORE I DIE

and he's like "I can try to solve the game I guess if you guys want but probably don't trust me"

I don't know maybe I'm too prideful or something and that's why I can't relate. But long story short I really want the game to end this phase and I currently feel very confident on fire. I don't know if that's actually helpful for anyone's paranoia of me but w/e

In post 8891, Thestatusquo wrote:I guess part of why I'm paranoid of Dann is that the way he approached frogster yesterday, he made really strong points about how frogsters posts felt super townie with how he and I were real timing and how he felt it was a proactive reason to town read frogster and then that kind of just went away when the frogster push started happening. The reason I don't know if that's a super strong reason to be suspicious is that obviously I was strongly convinced frogster was scum at the end of day yesterday too, so idk.

Yeah, idk

I probably should've stayed with my conviction. I kinda justified voting him at the end there by just how absolutely horrible reading the thread was. and like his behavior was awful. like I basically thought well I mean I could be wrong and even if he's town then at least the thread health is gonna be a lot better after this. but yeah I wish I had had more conviction before frogster blew up and I think that was a mistake on my part.

In post 8891, Thestatusquo wrote:But its not the first time this game where I've felt like dann was very fixated on a point where it supported a narrative that would be beneficial to him but it completely went away never to be mentioned again later. The best example of this was at the end of day with me forgetting CSFs claim he seemed very interested in saying I was scum based off of me forgetting that CSF had claimed but that hasn't seemed to play into his analysis of my slot at all now that less people seem interested in flipping me.

mmm I thought this was more of a funny point than anything else. Like I think it's interesting to consider and if it's true it would be absolutely hilarious. I was very caught up in the moment and excitement of CSF being scum and liked the idea of it being that simple. after reflecting it's like one small point and I really think against the volume of reasons to town read you it doesn't really hold much weight in my brain. also apparently you weren't the only one who treated CSF as not conf-town

I think the main thing is just that I've pretty much hard town read you since I came into the game and pretty rarely wavered. and I still feel pretty good about that

Dannflor · Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:45 am

I think I've like

done all the sorting I can do for today

unless someone comes up with some particularly damning evidence one way or another or fire town cases himself real good

I'm just gonna keep seeing what I'm seeing

Dannflor · Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:07 am

check fire's push on andres in the Datisi's Cafe game that just finished, GL

Dannflor · Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:10 am

eh I guess it's not the same situation, I misremembered

fire did some meta research but it wasn't exactly the same and not unprompted

Dannflor · Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:10 am

I'm not sure it's relevant anymore, I will if I find anything

Dannflor · Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:51 am

gg wp and thx for modding t3

it's unfortunate that the scum team almost all repped out because I think this game would be good fellas worthy without that

Dannflor · Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:38 am

I was lying pretty much the whole phase we eliminated fire because I was projecting like 20% confidence to 80% confidence

if I didn't lie as town I would never get anything done

Dannflor · Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:32 pm

scum topic pls >:(