Mini Normal 2305 | GAME OVER


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Post Post #2175 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 6:43 pm

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as a wise axolotl i know once said: bloop
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Post Post #2176 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 6:49 pm

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okay i've caught up fully, we need HEM dead today so we can have daiquiris together in the town win party. i'm gonna keep this as legible as possible.
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Post Post #2177 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 6:50 pm

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the worst, you're not gonna believe this, but you're absolutely wrong. dead wrong.
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Post Post #2178 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:19 pm

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that's fine we can do you today, dragons tomorrow, but it's you today
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Post Post #2179 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:21 pm

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why not dragons today
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Post Post #2180 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:44 pm

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he's not scum, and you're dangerous.
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Post Post #2181 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:54 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

oh so he's not scum now

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Post Post #2182 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 10:40 pm

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VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

I said previously I am not a fan right now of voting savethe dragon, which means I should be on the other side
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Post Post #2183 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:20 pm

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i'm leaving a lot of little tells out of this because it's already going to be awful to read. in abtract -

i understand that hem claims to have been uninformed d1, but we still need to consider that he heavily scumsided. he did a lot of work to grill townies, and was consistently forgiving towards scum. when wagons spiced up, he instilled a false dichotomy between roden & ckd to save greeting, despite allegedly heavily suspecting greeting. he established a townread on furtive as effortlessly as possible, and did not reevaluate this read. i get that this can come from an unlucky townie, too. but please consider how improbable it is that anyone is this consistently wrong vs. how probable it is that they are scum acting against town's interests.

the night one kill makes a lot of sense from scum!hem. the suggestion on d2 that the kill somehow frames hem, and therefore can't be him, is simply too convoluted. it's instant wifom. hem thought takutai was a tpr; takutai was a stabilising voice for town in a gamestate that was otherwise largely under hem's control; takutai's reads were pretty off given the flips we now have. this kill makes perfect sense in a very small number of worlds and scum!hem is one of them.

hem's d2 was absolutely scum motivated. he didn't take his foot off the pedal because he wanted others to contribute; he took his foot off the pedal because he could. he'd come off d1 looking pretty good and needed to do more to set up the rest of the game. d2 was a cross-bussing clusterfuck, and given furtive and greeting were the primary suspects, the scumteam needed to do work to come out of it without being totally caught.

the night two kill makes sense no matter who the last scum is, but hem absolutely works. oopsie's reads were excellent - she had furtive on lock, regularly included greeting in her solve, and had hem in half of her solves. she was also a viable kill because of her relative level of presence in d2. i don't think oopsie was a bad kill from a tpr hunt perspective, either, but i doubt that was the motivation.

hem's d3 breaks into two parts. he sets out attempting to establish a handful of players, conveniently including himself & furtive, as unaligned with greeting. the mason claim splits the phase in half; in the second half, hem fabricates a very flimsy reason to go back on his furtive townread and is suddenly absolutely confident that bingle is scum. this marks the point where hem realises the poe is so small that he can only win by bussing his weakest link and chaining eliminations on low-energy slots.

mt's kill makes sense whoever the last scum was. tbh i think mt's kill was the best way to keep heat on bob. otherwise, who do they kill? me, el? i died casing bob, and el is an unpredictable delight. no, mt was the only feasible mason kill last night.

this gets me to the current day phase. i mentioned this before, but we have a poe of [dragon, hem, bob]. this will probably win us the game, but we need to ensure that it's enforced. the players who would enforce it are either mandatory night kills, or free-spirited wildcards with very clashing playstyles (ckd + gera). i think we are very likely to get two of our three eliminations out of that pool. i think it's possible that we get all 3. but hem is bloody good at scum, convincing, and adorable. if there's anyone in that pool who we don't give a chance to, it's him.
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Post Post #2184 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:21 pm

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part 1: HEM heavily subsided day one


"HI"
- bob3141,

this is just a flavour quote, it'll make sense by the end of this god-awful wall & i hope it makes someone smile.


----


chapter 1: establishing HEM's motivation enterting d1

Spoiler:
HEM did a lot on day one to antagonise town, and to give now-flipped scum the benefit of the doubt. i would assert that HEM did no work to become pocketed, and neither Greeting nor furtive did any work to pocket HEM, so I don't regard heavy pocketing to be a realistic reality. This means HEM was either town who just unluckily did everything he could to help the scumteam, or more probably, just scum.

Point 1: HEM did everything possible to give the benefit of doubt to furtiveglance.

HEM did a lot to antagonise slots on day one. I can only really revert to oopsie on this because I think she summed up his ostensive motivations really well:
In post 223, OopsieDaisy wrote: HEM's push on me has really strong things in it (I really like him unearthing reads and getting me to elaborate on em), but also the gotcha thing where he asked me a direct question and then attacked me for answering that direct question over commenting on the Tweet posts rubs me in SUCH a wrong way. I always do my best to try and respond to people who want a comment from me and to have that attacked is eugh ew did not like that did not make me feel good lmao.
This was his modus operandi. If someone could be pushed for any tiny reason, he blew it up as much as possible to get them to produce content. This is a viable town strategy, because if you grill a liar about their story enough they'll slip up. This is also a viable scum strategy, because if you grill a truth-teller enough about their story, half the time they'll slip up. Human brains are fucking weird ok. It's a strategy which advances the game, and looks towny, but please bear in mind that it benefits both alignments. HEM concedes later that emulating his 1v1 strategy is an essential part of his scumplay:
In post 553, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 551, OopsieDaisy wrote: In fact I remember in one of the games Roden provided you held up a super hard 1v1 with another player to the point where the entire game warped around it, and in that very game you were scum!! (I forget which one but iirc it was with the person who's name started with A)
Check the town game where I have done it as well. The third game. Warping a game around me in a 1v1 is kinda my MO, and what I try hard to emulate as scum (which - as I said - how Aristeia caught me)
HEM presses Elements, Roden, Klick, Oopsie, clidd and Takutai all within the first 11 pages. He does interact with furtive, but superficially and he does not press furtive until some time later (realistically, starting in post #). i'm going to step through the posts that lead to hem reaching a townread on furtive in the next part because it bears reviewing. hem does not engage with greeting or evaluate him at all, but includes him in his scumpool in #. Greeting never seems to find this particularly noteworthy.


chapter 2: reviewing the basis of hem's longstanding townread on furtive

Spoiler:
i'm really sorry this is a mini-wall. this is literally the entire conversation which establishes hem's townread on furtive and it's a really quick read.
In post 654, furtiveglance wrote:The voting now looks like this:

EmperorFlippyNips (2):
clidd, Roden
Elements (2):
curiouskarmadog, geraintm
Roden (2):
humaneatingmonkey, Takutai
clidd (1):
furtiveglance

OopsieDaisy (1):
Klick
furtiveglance (1):
Greeting
Takutai (1):
Elements

Not voting (3):
Emperor flippyNips, Morning Tweet, OopsieDaisy

I'll vote Emperor if I have to but I'd like more pressure on Clidd.
In post 655, humaneatingmonkey wrote: furtive why do you scumread clidd
In post 659, humaneatingmonkey wrote: time for my subjective feelings:

furtive is missing a soul in this game.
this is good & i liked hem for it.
In post 668, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 655, humaneatingmonkey wrote: furtive why do you scumread clidd
Initially for the fencesitting and word salads. I thought his latest readslist was more of the same, too many nullreads on slots who have done a lot this game.
In post 657, clidd wrote: If I had expand on this subject, I suppose you are either accidentally fixated on some expectation or inducing yourself to reinforce the same thought.

One has unintended bias (town!you), the other has malicious purpose (scum!you).

Judging from what I remember of the first time you expressed it, I'm under the impression that it was coming from town!you, but it's not such a difficult fos that scum!you couldn't use it.

If I take HEM as an example, I felt impartiality when he mentioned the scum!Clidd scenarios,
while you seemed to already come with a conclusion in mind looking for ways to confirm it.
This is a really basic way of casting aspersions against me and making it seem like a calculated move by me, when the reality is I just saw more of what I originally sussed you for in the first place - and I knew you were probably gonna omgus at some point right from the response to when I first voted you in .
In post 659, humaneatingmonkey wrote: time for my subjective feelings:

furtive is missing a soul in this game.
Image
this response is succinct, informative & factual. it also does nothing except explain that clidd's reads are deliberately on slots which he doesn't have a read on, rather than just null because they've done nothing. there is no soul here and it's a fairly bland case against clidd.
In post 670, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 668, furtiveglance wrote: I thought his latest readslist was more of the same, too many nullreads on slots who have done a lot this game.
I feel like your readslist is identical? A couple of townreads, an elim pool, and a bunch of people he hasn't figured out yet.
I guess if you think about it, I don't feel too good that I'm not a townlean when I feel like he treats me like I'm a townlean. Personally, I chalk it up to paranoia.
Do you think his readslist doesn't match how he's been treating this game?
this response is coaching. i've bolded & purplified the question which includes its own answer in itself.
In post 673, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 670, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 668, furtiveglance wrote: I thought his latest readslist was more of the same, too many nullreads on slots who have done a lot this game.
I feel like your readslist is identical? A couple of townreads, an elim pool, and a bunch of people he hasn't figured out yet.
I guess if you think about it, I don't feel too good that I'm not a townlean when I feel like he treats me like I'm a townlean. Personally, I chalk it up to paranoia.
Do you think his readslist doesn't match how he's been treating this game?
No, it matches.
coaching denied. rather than probing furtive for more of his perspective:
In post 674, humaneatingmonkey wrote: If clidd was town, are you expecting a different kind of readslist?
hem once again asks furtive a question which includes its own answer.
In post 675, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 674, humaneatingmonkey wrote: If clidd was town, are you expecting a different kind of readslist?
Yeah, and different gameplay to match.
unsurprisingly, furtive answers with the answer that was included in the question.
In post 676, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Right now, things seem to check out for me. Do you mind walking me through why you're expecting a different gameplay from clidd? Have you been playing a lot with him recently that makes you think he'll have stronger stances than what he has right now?
despite furtive having shown no insightful perspective from his questioning, hem agrees that what he's seeing checks out. he asks for a meta expansion (i broadly dislike meta in general), but this is a perfectly passable way to ask furtive to share more perspective. problem here --
In post 677, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 676, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Right now, things seem to check out for me. Do you mind walking me through why you're expecting a different gameplay from clidd? Have you been playing a lot with him recently that makes you think he'll have stronger stances than what he has right now?
I remembered Clidd as an insightful, laconic player who was the N1 kill in my first game on site. I was struck by his indecision and paragraphs of blunt and vague thoughts this game. I think it's all for show.
-- furtive's response shows very limited expansion on his perspective, and a very vague comment about clidd's meta. hem was asking where the strength of his opinion came from ("have you been playing a lot with him recently?", etc.) and furtive's response does not seem all that satisfactory.
In post 678, humaneatingmonkey wrote: I did as skim of the game
and I can see where you're coming from. I don't think the read is reliable, but I can see where you're coming from. Mainly because it's a newbie, so it's not really "normal". I know I'm kinder in newbies.

My thoughts: I do remember clidd to be more combative than this, the targeting inactive slots seem lazy, true. I may be misremembering but I think he likes hero solves - and we're not getting that here. I mean... gerain and karmadog? i also do not understand why Emperor is "fine" for not showing signs of being scummy even though Emperor barely posted.

I also expected clidd to be using this time to be *doing* something rather than what I perceive to be passive commentary. This guy is supposed to be as egotistic as I am, so maybe the absence of "I solved the game in day 1" could be indicative of something. However, I do not know new clidd - the clidd I knew was old clidd. Someone needs to introduce us to new clidd.
but it's plenty for hem. despite the way he's absolutely roasted several town slots so far, he appears to be very quick to align himself with the first scum slot he interacts with 600+ posts into the game. to boot, this townread endured with no reconsideration or introspection until post # (which i'll circle back to later because it's also really evilly-motivated) quoted below:
In post 1909, humaneatingmonkey wrote: furtive's slot is sus for abandoning Greeting's wagon when it became too hot — despite having both Greeting and clidd as top suspects. Although he came back to it once Snivy got enough heat.
if this isn't convincing, please look at this handy hem + roden joined iso starting at post #420 (isolation #76) and consider how gritty it remains until #474 when HEM declares himself victorious.

the same goes for oopsie, though she did convince HEM to an extent.

i would argue that there's a very deep double-standard in what HEM required for furtive to pass his test vs. what he required for anyone else to pass his test. this, along with constant leading questions with positive outcomes, tells us that HEM entered this conversation wanting to townread furtive.


chapter 3: hem's conduct around the eod1 wagon consistently & explicitly benefits greeting

Spoiler:
there's a bit of work to do to lay the land here.

1) hem has a really forced scumread of roden.
if you're on the fence about hem's alignment and his motivations here, this ISO excerpt is worth reading to really convince yourself on how much work HEM did to end up with a Roden scumread:
please look at this handy hem + roden joined iso starting at post #420 (isolation #76) and consider how gritty it remains until #474 when HEM declares himself victorious.
2) i don't think hem had really established a ckd read. i don't really think it's important; ckd was an option hem wasn't interested in over roden.

3) hem has a scumread on greeting, but he won't really expand on why. in #, takutai asks hem why greeting is in his POE first then about clidd second. hem answers about clidd right away (#) then gives a pretty flimsy explanation about greeting in 2 post's time (#) including an explanation of why he doesn't want to vote greeting. this is a pretty flimsy read if hem is town, and it's not a good slot to have a flimsy read about given greeting was the third-most-viable lim option and the only scum one at the end of d1.

---

i'm just going to list really weird shit that happens around HEM & the greeting wagon which makes me think they're s/s. a lot of these could be coincidences. but a whole lot of coincidences pointing to the same thing is probably a decent indicator of truth!
In post 721, humaneatingmonkey wrote: okay thanks Watson

what do you make of Greeting asking a question that you had already answered?

i have an excuse. im playing on mobile right now.
but if he's voting you, he probably should have a good idea of where your head is right?
In post 722, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 721, humaneatingmonkey wrote: okay thanks Watson

what do you make of Greeting asking a question that you had already answered?

i have an excuse. im playing on mobile right now.
but if he's voting you, he probably should have a good idea of where your head is right?
I think Greeting is scummy for treading water yeah.
In post 723, humaneatingmonkey wrote: wow i am sheeping you arent i
look at you
i suspect this is the exchange which convinces HEM on Greeting. at this point, neither furtive (voting clidd "for pressure") or HEM (voting Roden) is voting Greeting or seems particularly interested in actually rallying for him to be pressured/eliminated. neither furtive nor hem finds this particularly noteworthy. The lack of urgency here looks like two scumbuddies talking about their third scumbuddy.
In post 736, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 735, OopsieDaisy wrote: But my issue is that it doesn't seem like this is out of character for Greeting as a player?
Nevermind, I decided to pick a town Greeting game off of his wiki page to ISO so I could check on this, went with Mini Norm 2262 and wow he was making some louder plays there. Now, it DID result in him getting voted out Day 1, so maybe there's an argument that over the past year Greeting has changed up his playstyle cause it wasn't reaping him rewards, but it's worth noting.
In post 741, humaneatingmonkey wrote: {Roden > clidd > Greeting, Elements}

is my elim pool
oopsie notes meta about Greeting, a player who HEM has in POE but has put no effort into sorting yet. HEM doesn't find this worth pursuing. HEM's reads here are to set up other options without needing to reevaluate Greeting because he like, just epically doesn't.
In post 821, humaneatingmonkey wrote: what if you guys sort me instead by following me on a clidd wagon? will you follow? if that's the reason you're doing it, then you must have no problem following me here.
VOTE: clidd

sorry guys, i must shake it up once again. the sheer speed of that wagon does not feel good.
i'm not the first to talk about how disingenuous this cold feet thing feels. what gets me is just one thing: hem whips a whole lot of votes for roden, then makes a generic comment about "the sheer speed of that wagon". this isn't a silver bullet but it is another thing which looks like tmi.
In post 848, Roden wrote:
In post 659, humaneatingmonkey wrote: time for my subjective feelings:

furtive is missing a soul in this game.
In post 708, humaneatingmonkey wrote: furtive no longer is soulless. i think he just ran out of fucks to give since i last saw him
It does not take much for HEM to come around to a town!Furtive read, or at least an implied town read since he doesn't want to actually commit to calling Furtive town. Look at their interactions between those two posts I quoted. HEM basically brings out the kiddie gloves, giving off zero aggression and only throwing him softball questions so he can explain his reads as concisely and with as much nuance as possible. It is a VASTLY different interaction than the one he had with me, even though he outright called Furtive soulless and implied that it was a scum tell. It comes across like he doesn't want Furtive to be shown in a negative light, and honestly Furtive does
look
a lot townier after they finish talking.

However, there's a small problem here.
In post 579, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 523, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 483, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 482, Elements wrote: The one that just happened and is multiple pages long
I did think you meant that one, just making sure

I think Roden's towny
Whilst I've got you here, what makes Roden towny to you after the exchange with HEM?
His was a reasonable response to a pretty baseless attack, at least that's how I saw it

I townread Roden before that as well, I gather his scumgame is pretty threadbare

Pooky said in a previous game that if Roden posts he's town - idk how fair that is but it was accurate to that game.
Furtive metas reads me as town, and he thinks HEM's case is baseless. Yet there's been zero objections to my wagon, unless you count this?
In post 780, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 774, humaneatingmonkey wrote: the greeting one is because i haven't townread greeting, and can be convinced to vote him if that's the only option open to me.

luckily, everyone seems down to see roden claim.
I don't want Roden to claim. I want clidd to claim!
Which doesn't accomplish much of anything. So why isn't Furtive doing anything to stop a wagon he believes will be a mis-elim? Why did he and HEM talk about reads on several other players but leave their completely opposite reads on me out of the conversation? They're ignoring
the elephant in the room and it stands out to me.
roden picks up that hem's trajectory on furtive is really fucking weird. this is a very dangerous thing for townies to be talking about if hem/furtive is indeed s/s. coincidentally, HEM is very quick to shut it down and this is the point where HEM starts to consistently reinforce the false dichotomy between ckd/roden (e.g. below).
In post 850, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Im not voting curiouskarmadog.
Im not leaving Roden's wagon again.
Im not forcing another slot to claim.
In post 873, humaneatingmonkey wrote: no, im back on roden's wagon because not only he self voted with a vanilla claim without elaboration until prompted... he lied about my meta twice. once was enough to have confidence to push, twice removes all doubt for an elimination.

i also think karma is flipping town.
around this point, HEM also seems to develop a very strong townread on ckd without apparent evaluation which has persisted for the rest of the game. i think this read is made up; if it's not, it's another thing that has come about at an incredibly inconvenient time for making hem look guilty. just a reminder - if either roden's or ckd's wagons falter, greeting is fairly widely suspected and is the most viable third option for an eod1 elim.

false dichotomy persisted into the end of the phase, more posts which pinged me:
In post 1003, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Yes. I'm not sure why Tweet thinks Roden's flipping town with utmost confidence here. It's not like Roden's displaying a uniquely town exit here.
establishing other player as having tmi in anticipation of town!roden flip
In post 1074, humaneatingmonkey wrote: I'll be more explicit about how Roden lied about meta twice. I already covered the first lie, here I'll cover the second lie.

In this game, he said this:
In post 825, Roden wrote: VOTE: Roden

This is only E-2 I think

I'm VT (technically all I received was Townie in my role PM, it didn't actually say Vanilla) but I'm clearly just a info flip so whatever

I was 99% sure on HEM being town until he started waffling. Town!HEM fakes confidence even when he's unsure. Don't let him worm out of the bullshit he pulled today.
That's when he scumcased me.

But in this game, the third game he cited, it's clear he already saw me did this A LOT of times. Here is town!Roden reprimanding me and my response.
In post 2030, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 2020, Roden wrote:HEM if you're town this loss is legit your fault.
You backed off of nearly every push
, OMGUS'd everyone who even slightly suspected you, lied about your potions, and decided to death tunnel me Day 1 even after I tried to give you a chance to prove that you're town and work together to elim a common scum read.
Lol
as town my reads are fluid and pushing everyone is my preferred MO because then i never get pocketed or tunneled
. I didnt lie about my potion use at all, i legit thought i had pain potions because setup said everyone gets one so when i pm schadd and tells me i only have harmography im just as shocked. Deathtunnel you d1? You just said i pushed every sloy and how is pushing my scumread scummy?

You all have a wicked way to twist this as if it's my fault. Im not having that.
See there? Roden has experience with town!HEM backing off nearly every push because my reads are fluid.
the same reason he said I'm scum for here (before going back to me being town).
he linked this game, guys. he claims familiarity with me. it's blatant misrepresentation and if town, we haven't heard any admissions of guilt.
this is... it. like that's it. this is hem's best explanation of where he thinks roden's scum agenda is coming from, and it's some highly subjective nonsense about meta. i get being frustrated by this kind of thing, but an absolute deathtunnel which means roden is 100% scum and must die in order for the game to progress is just such an intense read for something as nothing as this. it gets worse too--
In post 1111, humaneatingmonkey wrote: up for clidd, Roden?
asking roden to join him on a wagon despite the strength of his read is pretty wild. but suggesting clidd seems to only benefit greeting. hem has stated part of his preference for this eod is having nobody else claim; clidd is unclaimed, and wagons there have faltered. clidd is also not an established wagon where at this point, greeting (who hem has voiced suspicion of) absolutely is. all this accomplishes is trying to create a possible third option which isn't greeting, and it isn't consistent with hem's ostensive motivation towards this end of day.
In post 1164, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1160, curiouskarmadog wrote: HEM have you ever seen Roden self vote before?
Absolutely not. I think it's a scum tell. He absolutely felt like he's going anytime now. He felt as if the extended amount of time to play the game was "torture" and "limbo"... not "hope" and "game time" which I expected if he was town. ^_^
this pinged me really hard as well. someone else mentions a potential tell, and hem appropriates it into his case. i do not get the impression that hem had considered roden's self-vote a scumtell until this point. given how flimsy & vague the rest of his case is, i'd be surprised if he *didn't* mention an actual tell he'd noticed. i guess what i'm getting at here is that there's a lot of evidence that hem wants roden dead, but very little evidence that hem has evaluated roden's alignment.
In post 1209, Greeting wrote: UNVOTE: furtiveglance

We still have time, that’s good.
In post 1210, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1208, Takutai wrote: Surely we're not allowing Monke to tun up more people here, that would be plain dumb.
Oh the monkey is it
greeting, a slot hem has very little opinion of but is in his poe. widely agreed as a possible wagon candidate.
furtive, a slot greeting has been duelling since early in the game.
hem, an assertive player who likes picking up on weird things and grilling players who he doesn't have a read on.

greeting unvotes furtive, the third-largest wagon, because "we still have time" (?) without evaluating the read.
hem posts without acknowledging greeting.
greeting votes ckd because (summarily): "I'm not buying the walls of text at all... A lot of his reads (1189) feel completely contentless, and even the ones which actually have content feel watered-down." - this is a slot which hem is very convinced will flip town. greeting has stated no read on roden.
hem's reaction to this (1) again, asks a question which includes its own answer and (2) literally confesses that he wants greeting to be town despite the fact greeting is in hem's poe and he's spent absolutely no time evaluating his read through the entire game :sob:
In post 1222, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1216, Greeting wrote: I'm not buying the walls of text at all
In post 1216, Greeting wrote: I simply disagree with most of them and have a feeling like they're not genuine.
I would also like you to elaborate why you don't buy karmadog's posts at all. Is it a specific read and progression? I'm truly curious because I want you to be town.
this comes just after the following posts, now including greeting in his scumteam:
In post 1219, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1218, Elements wrote: Greeting, Roden, Takutai
Day 1 solve
omg
In post 1220, humaneatingmonkey wrote: i hope i'm not pocketed because that's a mindmeld

hem is consistently giving now-flipped scum far too much room to move when he's consistently been overbearing and intense when interacting with townies.
In post 1241, humaneatingmonkey wrote: VOTE: Roden Time to do it! I have no idea if this flips scum. God I hope so. Not 100% anymore. A good 70-80. Maybe I have been completely fooled by the AtE. I have reasons to scumread him, but it may have been clouded by excitement. However, I lean that I just had valid reads and I should just trust them.

But it's just the right thing to do for town at this point.
this is pretty tonal, but hem's vote here pinged me a bit too. it is definitely setting up for a miselim while trying to distance himself from the utter tunnel (to the point of vote-whipping) he's had all day. again it just doesn't feel sincere, i think hem is trying to telegraph that this is a real read more than he believes it.


chapter 4: end-of-day wagon just for fun

Spoiler:
In post 1309, Umlaut wrote:
Vote Count 1.9 (final)
Roden
(7):
Klick,
clidd
,
Elements
, humaneatingmonkey,
OopsieDaisy
, curiouskarmadog,
Takutai

curiouskarmadog (3):
Morning Tweet
,
furtiveglance
,
Greeting

Elements

(2):
geraintm,
Roden


Not voting (1):
Emperor flippyNips


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to drive someone out of town.

The sun will set in (expired on 2023-07-06 19:30:00).

we're lucky that greeting & furtive have flipped, because we now know there is certified weird shit going on with this end of day. it makes sense to have scum on the roden wagon:
- ckd was pretty obviously talked onto the wagon so has pretty low scum equity.
- klick sort of drifted onto the wagon, it lines up with his ostensive reads, i'm going to say he just has utterly medium scum equity.
- hem whipped votes for the wagon, made a big show of publicly considering other options while still being very confident that roden was scum for very tenuous reasons, then ends up finishing on the wagon. like this is it.
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Post Post #2185 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:22 pm

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part 2: don't overthink it. takutai's kill makes sense coming from a scumteam with hem on it.


"I rlly don't get the NKs at all actually."
- Morning Tweet,


this one is relatively short so i've included mt's quote for fun. i think this kill *seems* weird because the d2 conversation got real blurry real quick. i also think nobody very seriously considering scum!hem helped it slip under the radar a little. consider --
In post 1320, Emperor flippyNips wrote:
In post 1275, Takutai wrote:
In post 1270, curiouskarmadog wrote:
But why does Greeting lie? It does not believe that is scummy.
Monkey is selling his Roden lies already, my answer is the same here: External meta rarely factors into my analysis. playing the devil' advocate, having said something similar to greeting, he might just believe you are scum. I absolutely hate his vote just to be clear.

they’re trying to frame monkey with this one right here I guess


Pedit: I think it was cos when I was around they weren’t and I didn’t really “catch up” that could have something to do with it as well
this is a pretty unfortunate first read, because it's not something that anyone is actually all that likely to take out of takutai's iso. i think the conversation around why tak was the n1 kill ended kinda prematurely, and really just ended because the conversation started at a point which was too confusing. i do think there's some cool stuff to learn here.


1 - hem literally thought takutai was a town power role.
In post 296, Elements wrote:
In post 295, humaneatingmonkey wrote: UNVOTE:
A floating vote?!
Want to put it on Karma?
In post 297, humaneatingmonkey wrote: I considered it. I'm there in spirit. I agree that the game would benefit more by hearing more from inactive slots like karma, Greeting, and Emperor. I'll move out of the way. Takutai is obviously crumbing something so I'll sort him some other day. Maybe if karma didn't respond well to the pressure, I'll add my vote in for effect.
morning tweet circles back to agreeing in .


2 - takutai was a stabilising town voice

... to an extent.

hem had a pretty free run on day one. there's a small handful of players on this list who could capably control a day phase. removing names who just don't have the playstyle for it imo:

OopsieDaisy (i think she could but was very much on the defensive d1)
Greeting (obviously busy with stuff)
clidd (not exerting the pressure in this game)
curiouskarmadog (busy with wedding)
Roden (eliminated, wasn't convincing vs. hem d1)
Morning Tweet (attention split with masonry, stronger late-game)
Takutai (was totally fine just totally on the wrong track d1)
humaneatingmonkey (ran d1)

i think scum are motivated to remove dominant town voices. i think shooting someone like oopsie who was *obviously* vocal but wasn't quite gaining traction stands out, if someone like hem (literally ran the phase) survives. shooting takutai, who was consistent, makes sense.

i think this probably played into the decision in a very small way, i'd be surprised if it was the main motivation.


3 - takutai's reads were allllllll over the place, this kill wasn't made lightly

this is now fact!

takutai hard townread greeting for like, most of the day (we now know this was an incorrect read). when they wavered, they still had greeting somewhere in the middle of the table.

takutai spends most of the day evaluating teams like:
In post 1224, Takutai wrote: I was thinking
Roden
/
Elements
/
Oopsiedaisy
. At least you got one right.
In post 1235, Takutai wrote: geraintm/
elements
/
oopsie
still on the table just because I can't disprove it yet.
reads absolutely were not a factor in killing takutai. it was probably tpr hunting, possibly removing a stable voice without incriminating the more vocal parts of the table.



now on to the part 3 teaser:
In post 1328, humaneatingmonkey wrote: VOTE: Greeting I'm still interested in this slot.
In post 1329, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 1328, humaneatingmonkey wrote: VOTE: Greeting I'm still interested in this slot.
What motivation exists in order for Greeting to kill Takutai?
off the back of this flip, hem immediately locks on to greeting with an absolute iron grip. there's no awareness of how bizarre it would be for scum!greeting to have shot takutai n1. he also still has not evaluated his read on greeting at all outside of the flimsy d1 discussion where he just totally let greeting go. this isn't organic read trajectory, this is a bus.
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Post Post #2186 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:23 pm

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part 3: hem’s d2 makes the most sense if he entered having decided to bus greeting.


"Why is no one doing anything this is insane??"
– OopsieDaisy,

To be blunt: day two was a crossbussing clusterfuck regardless of who the last scum was. Unambiguously. Furtive committed to his scumread of Greeting, Greeting distanced from Furtive (fairly effectively). What I’m hoping to establish is whether or not HEM is also a probable busser. I guess the title gives away my conclusion. Shit.

To quote furtive himself: “the bar for towniness is on the floor this game”. This is a really interesting phase for scum. Furtive & Greeting are both widely suspected, but because so many town players are inactive or kinda lukewarm-scummy, an over-the-top bus is going to stand out.

HEM has shown himself unable to communicate effectively or evaluate, specifically, the two slots who have now flipped scum and who were the primary wagon candidates on day two. In particular, he seems very capable of having a read on Greeting, but seems very quick to change it and profoundly uninterested in having probing conversations with Greeting. Greeting, for his part, doesn’t seem to find this particularly odd. That’s d1 background, I’ll jump into d2 here.

chapter 1: hem does not have a read on greeting and greeting is ok with that actually

Spoiler:
In post 1328, humaneatingmonkey wrote: VOTE: Greeting I'm still interested in this slot.
HEM opens d2 with a vote on Greeting, having done as much as possible on d1 to ensure that Greeting was not wagoned while voicing vague scumreads about him (refer part 1).

This doesn’t include reevaluation of his read on Greeting, his reads now that Roden (his strongest scumread) has flipped town, nor that Takutai has died overnight. He does explain the latter away as suspecting scum were PR hunting () which is probably true.

Choosing this phase to chill is awkward for HEM’s optics because he is vote parking the now-flipped scum who he had the hardest time interacting with by far. He also has never established this as a scumread, but suddenly only seems interested in making clarifying points about d1’s happenings and vote-parking Greeting. It’s like, pretty obvious he’s entered d2 deciding that this is his plan until quite a bit later. Despite letting others do the bulk of the talking, he doesn’t really use any of the conversations from d2 to advance his reads. And here’s Greeting’s response and then the reason he’s vote-parking Greeting:
In post 1432, Greeting wrote:
In post 1394, Greeting wrote:
In post 1328, humaneatingmonkey wrote: VOTE: Greeting I'm still interested in this slot.
Why?
???
In post 1476, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1469, Greeting wrote: @hem answer my question first, then I’ll answer yours.
Greeting you already know why. I think your karmadog vote is bad faith. It felt like you made up a reason to establish your vote as stronger than it is -- than you really having a strong reason to scumread karmadog.
Despite being a hyper-assertive sorter, and hyper-assertively interacting with several slots excluding Greeting on day one, HEM decides to park his vote on Greeting. HEM interacts with Greeting in a way which indicates HEM already knows that Greeting is scum. And Greeting’s reaction to this, as established, is very lacklustre.

Greeting never posts again after HEM’s response but like, look at the preceding posts. My thesis is that neither of them gives a shit about having this interaction and I’d be pretty surprised if anyone disagrees objectively.

Despite this absolute blank-faced decision to bury Greeting, HEM isn’t interested in seeing this wagon through; he whips no votes the way he did for Roden. He doesn’t evaluate his read on either of the major wagons (now both flipped scum). He just kind of works through the phase.

For Greeting’s part, again, he never really evaluates how underwhelming HEM’s case and progression are on his slot. He goes so far as to question Oopsie’s, while just totally ignoring the fact HEM is pushing him in bad faith.
In post 1436, Greeting wrote: OopsieDaisy
is having an unnatural progression of her read of me as well. It's concerning.
Greeting doesn’t do a lot to react to furtive’s push either, but he had already established this by writing furtive off as town quite lazily, which was pretty good distancing. I don’t really think Greeting could afford to call HEM town if they’re aligned, even though it’s clearly the way Greeting is treating HEM.

Greeting also chooses to reason with ckd, and discredit his argument in . Despite HEM’s reasoning being much flimsier (and much shorter), Greeting never feels compelled to challenge HEM’s scumread.

He does establish a continued townread on furtive, but only in the context of being disinterested in the furtive wagon:
In post 1437, Greeting wrote: As for the other wagon,
furtive
, I have been pushing him for a while and I think he's just stubborn and grumpy town in this game. And I don't vote someone whom I think is town just for self-preservation. I vote for scum.
I think it’s pretty easy for scum!Greeting to call town!HEM town given he doesn’t really care about picking HEM apart. I think it’s a lot harder for scum!Greeting to call scum!HEM town despite the fact he’s giving HEM a free pass in the thread.


chapter 2: uh, just other stuff that's wrong with hem this phase

Spoiler:
hem’s silence also occurs during the peak of the furtive suspicion, and again we have a situation where scum who hem has put very little effort into sorting are heavily pressed, and hem doesn’t seem interested in having any nuanced opinion on it. Like even Gera breaks character and cases furtive in .

Yet none of this is interesting to HEM. He retains his townread on furtive for tenuous reasons, and doesn’t reevaluate his read on Greeting despite it having come out of nowhere and not considered the broader gamestate.





El makes a really compelling point here:
In post 1577, Elements wrote: I don't think scum is controlling this game at all. It's way too passive. I'm thinking no one is overly invested in the game so everyone is just sort of sitting around waiting for things to happen and going along with them when they do.
Consider, as well, that both major d2 suspects are now flipped scum. What are the differences between d1 & d2?

- as MT says in : “Elements, clidd, and myself are working together so that's why wagons never seem to gain traction there despite most of the thread voicing suspicion of clidd”. El & clidd weren’t going to be wagoned and they were the only other people being looked at.

- HEM isn’t talking, CKD is.
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Post Post #2187 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:25 pm

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part 4: don’t even think about it the n2 kill just makes sense


"Scum is most likely just looking for a PR at this point. The only claim out there is mine (VT...or is it?!?!)
so with several different options, they had to side with someone who is a threat...(or a 100 other reasons)..."
– curiouskarmadog,

I kept finding flavour quotes while I was building this case sorry



This is easy. Oopsie probably literally called the scumteam at some point her read were fucking excellent.

illustrative quotes, spoilered for tidiness.
Spoiler:
In post 1429, OopsieDaisy wrote:
Furtive
is a slot I scumread harder myself because of meta reasons, however my confidence in my reads is not very high at all right now and I'm doubting myself on a lot of judgements. It feels like Furtive has been very careful to not rock the boat and impact the game super hard, and that isn't the Furtive I know. I expect stronger reads and more commitment, it's just I know the forum format can mess with this meta read I have from irl play.

Greeting
is a slot that I also feel is a very viable scum candidate, mainly due to how they were positioned in Day 1 (pushing the Karma wagon is still something I'm not a fan of), and voices that I currently trust in this game (Karma/Clidd) are wanting a push here.

I also don't have a great read on
HEM rn and I think HEM pairs much better with Furtive
than he does with Greeting, since HEM was showing willingness to follow people onto a Greeting vote if need be despite the read he had on Roden at the end of Day 1.

Yea thinking about all of the above, I should be on Furtive I just switched cause of a lack of confidence in myself and that's weak sauce.

UNVOTE: Greeting
VOTE: Furtive
if hem is scum, this kind of read is incredibly dangerous to leave alive. The sheer amount of like, mystic brain energy oopsie radiates at this point in the game is also giving me life. I’ll circle back to this.
In post 1471, OopsieDaisy wrote: Furtive/Klick/HEM as a very possible scumteam
If I’m wrong on HEM it’s probably Klick. Either way, Oopsie is now lock on Furtive who survived d2 and has [hem,klick] firmly in her line of sight.
In post 1607, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 1600, Save The Dragons wrote: i dunno sometimes i do better when people talk to me

VOTE: HEM for now
In post 1603, furtiveglance wrote: Welcome STD

vote Clidd with me?
In post 1604, Save The Dragons wrote: VOTE: clidd
^^another point towards my furtive/hem team paranoia
+1 point for hem/furtive nk equity
In post 1615, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 1614, Save The Dragons wrote: UNVOTE:

i don't remember why i thought clidd was scummy let me take a closer look

i would like to know why people are so keen on HEM
My stance on HEM right now is that he's a talker. He's someone who was willing to lead town yesterday and the activity he gives to the game tells us a lot about him and those around him. Do I feel good about him dipping out a bit today? Not really. But it shows he'll engage if/when he needs to.

But I feel like if he's scum there's a strong chance he's paired with Furtive because of how I've observed them interacting and the way they've both tried to push other players' votes away from the other (HEM with the limpool of the gera pushers thing, Furtive guiding your vote away from HEM just this page). Because of this, and the fact I feel like he's a really strong asset to us *if* he's town, I want to flip Furtive first.
+1 point for hem/furtive nk equity
In post 1631, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 1630, Elements wrote:
In post 1629, geraintm wrote:
In post 1628, Elements wrote: VOTE: Ccs
I don't understand this
Okay
this is so funny

i like both players more after this interaction
unexpected townreads on lower-hanging fruits
In post 1657, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 1655, Elements wrote: Neither of the two replacement slots have done anything for me
Agreed, tho on the spot I prefer StD to Snivy, it's not by much tho
correct read on snivy’s replace-in
I’m biased but I think her liking Dragons is probably a factor too






less substantively because I’m getting long-winded:

Point 1: Oopsie’s reads were very good regardless of who the last scum is.

Point 2: Oopsie’s end of day two just isn’t aligned with Snivy at all. I can explain this if y’all need but we also know it’s not true. She makes sense to kill for this.

Point 3: Oopsie stays consistently powerful and her reads get sharper. HEM is quieter, Oopsie is clearer. She’s a kind of obvious NK choice to disrupt cohesion.

I also think that if HEM is scum, I think he likely decided to stay quiet on d2 in part so that they could start shooting vocal players without it being weird that he was still alive. This is backwards reasoning though I just wanna flex on monkey because I like his scumgame and I think I’ve caught him.
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Post Post #2188 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:25 pm

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part 5: attack of the nasty plan-ruining masons


"Scum is most likely just looking for a PR at this point. The only claim out there is mine (VT...or is it?!?!)
so with several different options, they had to side with someone who is a threat...(or a 100 other reasons)..."
– curiouskarmadog,


At this stage HEM has kinda slipped under the radar. He was correct about Greeting, a fact he’s obviously still very proud of. He was not instrumental in Greeting’s elimination, and he also never showed any kind of readable, nuanced progression on Greeting so I’m not really treating it as a towntell. Somehow he just never caught any flak on d2. D3 is very much about establishing a gamestate where his team can win. I think he unintentionally shows his hand in this stage, in a way he didn’t quite during d1 & d2. Thanks for reading this far.

This day breaks into three parts, from a play perspective. There’s the phase before the mason claim, the phase during the mason claim, then the part after (particularly bob’s claim). I’m going to talk through how actions HEM took in each phase advance scum’s wincon. I’ll say this for the nth time: it is possible that these are all really tragic coincidences that have happened to town!HEM. But when there’s this many coincidences all pointing towards a skilled player negligently advancing the same wincon, I think we need to look deeper. If it quacks like scum and smells like scum, sometimes it’s just a duck. Or something like that. HEM is scum.

Chapter 1: before the mason claim

Spoiler:
HEM opens the phase voting clidd in . His pool for d3 elimination (as of ) is clidd/gera/emperor based on d2 vca & a MT townread. HEM works a gera townread in . Muses about a scumteam of clidd/Greeting/Emperor in . Says El doesn’t seem aligned with Greeting in .
In post 1771, humaneatingmonkey wrote: I don't think it's indicative of anything, but I think it's an odd coincidence that Emperor is the only slot that Greeting didn't mention/interact with before putting him down on his list. There was no prep work in establishing motive to vote.
Establishing a potential Emperor/Greeting world. There’s a lot of vca around this which I don’t find very useful. He mentions a possible Dragons scumclaim in (I don’t 100% understand this sentence but it’s not that important). In , HEM says he’ll vote Dragons over Emperor.

My point is this: HEM’s realistic scum pool at this point is: {clidd, emperor, dragons}. Gera is a wildcard 4th but HEM has just made a case that Gera is town. This conspicuously leaves out furtive, the other living scum. Given they’re in f9, 3 elims is exactly enough to get them the win. So this does advantage a scumteam with furtive on it, but it’s relatively benign. This is a pretty nice state, and all of his elims are reasonably low-hanging fruit. So this is a fairly workable path to the finish line.

And then, it goes to shit.


Chapter 2: The Mason Claim

Spoiler:
In , El claims mason, clearing clidd.
In post 1880, humaneatingmonkey wrote: cliddoris
HEM finally makes his clidd joke. I’m also pretty sure this is the exact second that HEM’s brain broke.
In post 1883, humaneatingmonkey wrote: VOTE: SaveTheDragons

if you aren't masons together then you suck
HEM changes his vote off confirmed town an hour later, only after prompted by El. He is very clearly on the back foot here, regardless of his alignment. I think the fact his first priority wasn’t to evaluate where his reads were wrong is telling, but again, I’m biased. He follows this up by trying to like, disprove? The mason claim in and rather than reevaluate his reads.

Big restart happens, bingle and this really cool duck appear. The game is out of action for two days, which has given people time to evaluate their reads.
In post 1897, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1896, the worst wrote:
who's scum?
i haven't read up yet but like,
it's me
freud has never been so affirmed
HEM hasn’t. (but this was really funny)

HEM establishes in that we’re not just pocketed neighbours. He verifies with me in that, indeed, clidd & El decided to distance from each other for some reason. This is the point where HEM finally decides to reevaluate his read on Furtive.

Now I’m going to refer to part 1 because I foreshadowed this!!:


In post 677, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 676, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Right now, things seem to check out for me. Do you mind walking me through why you're expecting a different gameplay from clidd? Have you been playing a lot with him recently that makes you think he'll have stronger stances than what he has right now?
I remembered Clidd as an insightful, laconic player who was the N1 kill in my first game on site. I was struck by his indecision and paragraphs of blunt and vague thoughts this game. I think it's all for show.
-- furtive's response shows very limited expansion on his perspective, and a very vague comment about clidd's meta. hem was asking where the strength of his opinion came from ("have you been playing a lot with him recently?", etc.) and furtive's response does not seem all that satisfactory.
In post 678, humaneatingmonkey wrote: I did as skim of the game
and I can see where you're coming from. I don't think the read is reliable, but I can see where you're coming from. Mainly because it's a newbie, so it's not really "normal". I know I'm kinder in newbies.

My thoughts: I do remember clidd to be more combative than this, the targeting inactive slots seem lazy, true. I may be misremembering but I think he likes hero solves - and we're not getting that here. I mean... gerain and karmadog? i also do not understand why Emperor is "fine" for not showing signs of being scummy even though Emperor barely posted.

I also expected clidd to be using this time to be *doing* something rather than what I perceive to be passive commentary. This guy is supposed to be as egotistic as I am, so maybe the absence of "I solved the game in day 1" could be indicative of something. However, I do not know new clidd - the clidd I knew was old clidd. Someone needs to introduce us to new clidd.
but it's plenty for hem. despite the way he's absolutely roasted several town slots so far, he appears to be very quick to align himself with the first scum slot he interacts with 600+ posts into the game. to boot, this townread endured with no reconsideration or introspection until post # (which i'll circle back to later because it's also really evilly-motivated) quoted below:
In post 1909, humaneatingmonkey wrote: furtive's slot is sus for abandoning Greeting's wagon when it became too hot — despite having both Greeting and clidd as top suspects. Although he came back to it once Snivy got enough heat.
if this isn't convincing, please look at this handy hem + roden joined iso starting at post #420 (isolation #76) and consider how gritty it remains until #474 when HEM declares himself victorious.

the same goes for oopsie, though she did convince HEM to an extent.

i would argue that there's a very deep double-standard in what HEM required for furtive to pass his test vs. what he required for anyone else to pass his test. this, along with constant leading questions with positive outcomes, tells us that HEM entered this conversation wanting to townread furtive.
This is the bit where HEM finally reevalutes his Furtive read (which is now Bingle’s slot). The read which he achieved way too easily, and has sit on without reevaluating for ages. The point where the remnants of the POE pool was literally just [emperor(=>bob) + dragons], meaning that scum were very likely to lose the game by just following status quo. And the reevaluation isn’t even all that insightful!!

At this point, it would be very obvious and very negligent for scum!HEM not to reevaluate his furtive read. They might be able to get lims on bob & dragons and get into final 5, but it’s going to look pretty shaky if the two of them did that without evaluating each other at all. I’ll talk about the ongoing gamestate in my next & final part of this epic rant ([chorus of sighs of relief]). But realistically, this isn’t one where HEM and Bingle can reach the finish line together. At some point, one of them is going to have to try and get a lim off on someone really goofy (which is between Gera or CKD, realistically). That’s going to be a lot harder if they have to do that while defending each other. Realistically, their best chance is to establish one of them as probable town by having them bus the other.

The next part of this is Bob’s claim, so I’ll see u all in my third spoiler.


Chapter 3: Bob3141gate, post-mason claim

Spoiler:
Bob makes an attempt to claim an investigative role very vaguely. HEM presses for more details in & (this might impact the POE again of course). CKD also asks for more info in & but he’s asking because he doesn’t understand, not to probe Bob.

HEM continues to shade the claim, which he does need to do to keep the elim pool as open as possible. Curious asks for a full claim which like, not ideal from my perspective, but it’s pretty direct. HEM takes the back foot and lets CKD press bob for more info which is pretty shady.

Bob has established that there is a 3rd mason and in , asks the masons to decide whether he should full claim. HEM & bob start arguing about other more semantic stuff. Now we have Bingle’s appearance.
In post 1959, Bingle wrote:
In post 1956, humaneatingmonkey wrote: novice mason sounds made up because it's not really a role i have ever seen. you're the one who mentioned novice mason, so I'm not sure why it's me who jumped to any conclusions?
and i don't understand what other motivation you're looking for here, other than getting out of poe?
This is probably town, fwiw. Scummonkee is more likely to realize that if bob is lying about there being a novice mason the claimed masons would presumably just say that. Bob is probably telling the truth, which doesn’t really make him town. Rolecop definitely makes sense as a scum role in a three mason setup, and assuming the masons aren’t the novices in question that’s what it sounds like.
This post is designed to make HEM look good, like, obviously. I’m not going to WIFOM this but this being his only read seems like an attempt at distancing. I think it’s a similar strategy to Greeting’s read on Furtive. But again this is WIFOM. Bingle does more sneaky stuff!

Through , , , he establishes himself as mechanically sensible and shuts down fringe conversations. In , HEM says he thinks the third mason should just be outed (this strictly benefited scum). In , Bingle comments that he’s ambivalent about the third mason claiming. Despite the fact HEM scumreads the slot, the two are working the same agenda. Another thing that could be an unlucky coincidence for town!HEM, but is seeming more and more remote.
In post 1975, Bingle wrote: If we’re outing the third you should be the one to do it.
Doing this to confirm bob’s role also removes the masons’ agency in having our third member outed (which is clever, but stinks because we were hoping to keep MT secret). This is the point where bob outs the third mason, a situation which explicitly benefits scum and disadvantages us. The good news is that the POE pool doesn’t change I guess so if scum can get one more goofy miselim, they *can* win.



hem: "i think it's smart for the 3rd to be outed just so when the masons die, there aren't any scum claiming to be the 3rd. we already have two of the masons outted, so I'm not sure why there's value not outting a 3rd. it's not like scum has a shortage of pr claims to flip." omg why didn't i roast this at the time......

bingle is here to whisper silky sweet words, be a delight, and then be bussed, tragically. he's doing a lot to stay mechanical and draw out the third mason claim (strict benefit to scum), and a lot to delay needing to give reads.


In post 2016, humaneatingmonkey wrote: lets yeet bingle then lets reconvene tomorrow when this gets easier
As of this post, HEM has inexplicably established that Bingle is going to flip scum despite his re-evaluation on Furtive being very tenuous, and his not addressing anything that Bingle has done.

Bingle does not address this, or post again until he is dead.


At this point, HEM can technically say that he has lead two wagons on scum. I can also confidently say that they both have higher-than-average bus equity.
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Post Post #2189 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:26 pm

Post by the worst »

part 6: this is our game to lose, but we can still lose it.


"El, you & I both know Karma doesn't care about the viability of his wagons in terms of the wider game, he just votes who he thinks is scum..."
- OopsieDaisy,

This isn’t an indictment of or specific to CKD, I just thought this quote illustrated the vibe of my point well. :P




This is a quick point. We generally agree that a POE of [hem, dragons, bob] will usually win us the game. The problem is the people who agree with that POE. I’m really relieved to see Gera is open to yeeting HEM today, because we do need everyone to follow through on that POE. I think if there’s a disruptive force, it’s absolutely HEM.

El and I are committed to the POE. We’re also going to die the next two nights. Dragons & Bob are committed to the POE, but neither of them have asserted half as much sheer “I will win this game.”-energy dominance as HEM has. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that without disruption, HEM will be the last of these three to be eliminated.

The players who are not committed to eliminating the POE are:
- the last scum, if they’re in the POE.
- ckd (he’s v/la so fair enough).
- gera (hasn’t really said, and he’s a free spirit).

Assuming I’m correct and HEM is our final scum.

geraintm, humaneatingmonkey, the worst, bob3141, curiouskarmadog, Elements, save the dragons

D4: Final 7, we eliminate Save the Dragons.
N4: Final 6, scum shoots El/me.
D5: Final 5, we eliminate bob3141.
N5: Final 4, scum shoots last of El/me.
D6: Final 3, with humaneatingmonkey,geraintm and curiouskarmadog.

That is unambiguously the most chaotic final 3 possible. Our state of having a confident 3-person POE is suddenly a lot more tenuous than it seems right now. Gera & CKD aren’t at each other’s throats or anything, but there’s a significant divergence in their play styles. HEM is also clearly a player who can spin some shit. Despite the fact we think Gera and CKD are town now, all of that changes in final 3.

All I’m saying is that if HEM is scum, he is going to survive ‘til final 3 and I think he is capable of presenting a convincing enough case that I’m not *confident* HEM would be the f3 elimination. It takes one town member to dissent, and the game is loss. If scum don’t vote first, 2:1 vanilla final 3 is a 25% town winrate.

I’d much rather remove the most threatening part of the suspect pool, who also has massive scum equity, right now and we can all look back on this and laugh when the mod announces a town win tomorrow.
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Post Post #2190 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:29 pm

Post by the worst »

tl;dr: abstract in . hem has a tonne of scum equity and is a scary person to leave alive until f3 just because he helped flip some scum. he's also big and spooky and scurry to eliminate so i get why it's not particularly appealing to go after him 1-2 phases before you need to.

i can give a dragons towncase, but it's a *lot* less interesting than my HEM scumcase. i'll write it up & post it to the mason chat if this hits green ig, or i can post it before EOD if people are super interested.


i can be wrong but i haven't felt like, this insanely confident in a very long time? if i'm wrong this will be so funny
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Post Post #2191 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:40 pm

Post by Elements »

VOTE: hem
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It's scummy as fak tho - Gamma Emerald
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Post Post #2192 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:49 pm

Post by Elements »

In post 2162, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Elements I think it should be {std, gerain} but std > gerain.
do you not have a third in this group?
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Post Post #2193 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:49 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

i really dont wish to fight this because the worst has already been entrenched in his case. like thats a lot of words. the depression from the sunk cost will be fucking wild. i expect the worst to be low morale tomorrow. karmadog wont show up until august 8 and i think town's momentum has absolutely been dogstomped. ill try and delay my elimination until karmadog shows up so at least the slot is productive through the night and the next day phase.

the worst, if you survive tonight, promise me to do another reread even if you already did. it seems your reread is incomplete and probably tunnelled to confirm that i am scum. look at gerain and std before you do bob. i dont know why you think std is unaligned but you gotta get your ass out of that. i caught you not even considering std scum when you said he isnt, so you are probably pocketed or will be very easy to pocket. PLEASE BE CAREFUL

karmadog, you're the deciding vote of ELo if scum didnt bring Elements or the worst (since hes performing suboptimally right now). if youre scum, kudos. if youre town, please make the right decision. i think bob has less scum equity than gerain so dont get confident like the worst here and fairly evaluate the game on equal chances.

i am claiming vt
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Post Post #2194 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:51 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

oh im hammered.

fucking annoying how im so called good but thats only tanked my town cred. people really seem to use it against me.

the worst. your ass. pull yourself out of it, mmkay hunny
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Post Post #2195 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:52 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

In post 2192, Elements wrote:
In post 2162, humaneatingmonkey wrote: Elements I think it should be {std, gerain} but std > gerain.
do you not have a third in this group?
i am the third, but im not scum
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Post Post #2196 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:53 pm

Post by Elements »

In post 2194, humaneatingmonkey wrote: fucking annoying how im so called good but thats only tanked my town cred. people really seem to use it against me.
what tanked your town cred for me is how survivalistic you've been over the last few pages
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Post Post #2197 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:53 pm

Post by Elements »

In post 2194, humaneatingmonkey wrote: oh im hammered.
did not realise that was a hanner vote
my bad
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Post Post #2198 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:55 pm

Post by humaneatingmonkey »

everyone's trying to survive. ironically, this is the least resistance i can give an elimination. i think i needed eliminating before ELo but not before STD.
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Post Post #2199 (ISO) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:56 pm

Post by Elements »

In post 2198, humaneatingmonkey wrote: i think i needed eliminating before ELo but not before STD.
why not before StD?
who isn't going to push StD tomorrow?
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