there's a bit of work to do to lay the land here.
1) hem has a really forced scumread of roden.
if you're on the fence about hem's alignment and his motivations here, this ISO excerpt is worth reading to really convince yourself on how much work HEM did to end up with a Roden scumread:
please look at
this handy hem + roden joined iso starting at post #420 (isolation #76) and consider how gritty it remains until #474 when HEM declares himself victorious.
2) i don't think hem had really established a ckd read. i don't really think it's important; ckd was an option hem wasn't interested in over roden.
3) hem has a scumread on greeting, but he won't really expand on why. in #
769, takutai asks hem why greeting is in his POE first then about clidd second. hem answers about clidd right away (#
772) then gives a pretty flimsy explanation about greeting in 2 post's time (#
774) including an explanation of why he doesn't want to vote greeting. this is a pretty flimsy read if hem is town, and it's not a good slot to have a flimsy read about given greeting was the third-most-viable lim option and the only scum one at the end of d1.
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i'm just going to list really weird shit that happens around HEM & the greeting wagon which makes me think they're s/s. a lot of these could be coincidences. but a whole lot of coincidences pointing to the same thing is probably a decent indicator of truth!
In post 721, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
okay thanks Watson
what do you make of Greeting asking a question that you had already answered?
i have an excuse. im playing on mobile right now.
but if he's voting you, he probably should have a good idea of where your head is right?
In post 722, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 721, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
okay thanks Watson
what do you make of Greeting asking a question that you had already answered?
i have an excuse. im playing on mobile right now.
but if he's voting you, he probably should have a good idea of where your head is right?
I think Greeting is scummy for treading water yeah.
i suspect this is the exchange which convinces HEM on Greeting. at this point, neither furtive (voting clidd "for pressure") or HEM (voting Roden) is voting Greeting or seems particularly interested in actually rallying for him to be pressured/eliminated. neither furtive nor hem finds this particularly noteworthy. The lack of urgency here looks like two scumbuddies talking about their third scumbuddy.
In post 736, OopsieDaisy wrote:
In post 735, OopsieDaisy wrote:
But my issue is that it doesn't seem like this is out of character for Greeting as a player?
Nevermind, I decided to pick a town Greeting game off of his wiki page to ISO so I could check on this, went with Mini Norm 2262 and wow he was making some louder plays there. Now, it DID result in him getting voted out Day 1, so maybe there's an argument that over the past year Greeting has changed up his playstyle cause it wasn't reaping him rewards, but it's worth noting.
oopsie notes meta about Greeting, a player who HEM has in POE but has put no effort into sorting yet. HEM doesn't find this worth pursuing. HEM's reads here are to set up other options without needing to reevaluate Greeting because he like, just epically doesn't.
In post 821, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
what if you guys sort me instead by following me on a clidd wagon? will you follow? if that's the reason you're doing it, then you must have no problem following me here.
VOTE: clidd
sorry guys, i must shake it up once again. the sheer speed of that wagon does not feel good.
i'm not the first to talk about how disingenuous this cold feet thing feels. what gets me is just one thing: hem whips a whole lot of votes for roden, then makes a generic comment about "the sheer speed of that wagon". this isn't a silver bullet but it is another thing which looks like tmi.
In post 848, Roden wrote:
It does not take much for HEM to come around to a town!Furtive read, or at least an implied town read since he doesn't want to actually commit to calling Furtive town. Look at their interactions between those two posts I quoted. HEM basically brings out the kiddie gloves, giving off zero aggression and only throwing him softball questions so he can explain his reads as concisely and with as much nuance as possible. It is a VASTLY different interaction than the one he had with me, even though he outright called Furtive soulless and implied that it was a scum tell. It comes across like he doesn't want Furtive to be shown in a negative light, and honestly Furtive does
look
a lot townier after they finish talking.
However, there's a small problem here.
In post 579, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 523, OopsieDaisy wrote:
Whilst I've got you here, what makes Roden towny to you after the exchange with HEM?
His was a reasonable response to a pretty baseless attack, at least that's how I saw it
I townread Roden before that as well, I gather his scumgame is pretty threadbare
Pooky said in a previous game that if Roden posts he's town - idk how fair that is but it was accurate to that game.
Furtive metas reads me as town, and he thinks HEM's case is baseless. Yet there's been zero objections to my wagon, unless you count this?
In post 780, furtiveglance wrote:
In post 774, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
the greeting one is because i haven't townread greeting, and can be convinced to vote him if that's the only option open to me.
luckily, everyone seems down to see roden claim.
I don't want Roden to claim. I want clidd to claim!
Which doesn't accomplish much of anything. So why isn't Furtive doing anything to stop a wagon he believes will be a mis-elim? Why did he and HEM talk about reads on several other players but leave their completely opposite reads on me out of the conversation? They're ignoring
the elephant in the room and it stands out to me.
roden picks up that hem's trajectory on furtive is really fucking weird. this is a very dangerous thing for townies to be talking about if hem/furtive is indeed s/s. coincidentally, HEM is very quick to shut it down and this is the point where HEM starts to consistently reinforce the false dichotomy between ckd/roden (e.g. below).
In post 850, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
Im not voting curiouskarmadog.
Im not leaving Roden's wagon again.
Im not forcing another slot to claim.
In post 873, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
no, im back on roden's wagon because not only he self voted with a vanilla claim without elaboration until prompted... he lied about my meta twice. once was enough to have confidence to push, twice removes all doubt for an elimination.
i also think karma is flipping town.
around this point, HEM also seems to develop a very strong townread on ckd without apparent evaluation which has persisted for the rest of the game. i think this read is made up; if it's not, it's another thing that has come about at an incredibly inconvenient time for making hem look guilty. just a reminder - if either roden's or ckd's wagons falter, greeting is fairly widely suspected and is the most viable third option for an eod1 elim.
false dichotomy persisted into the end of the phase, more posts which pinged me:
In post 1003, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
Yes. I'm not sure why Tweet thinks Roden's flipping town with utmost confidence here. It's not like Roden's displaying a uniquely town exit here.
establishing other player as having tmi in anticipation of town!roden flip
In post 1074, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
I'll be more explicit about how Roden lied about meta twice. I already covered the first lie, here I'll cover the second lie.
In this game, he said this:
In post 825, Roden wrote:
VOTE: Roden
This is only E-2 I think
I'm VT (technically all I received was Townie in my role PM, it didn't actually say Vanilla) but I'm clearly just a info flip so whatever
I was 99% sure on HEM being town until he started waffling. Town!HEM fakes confidence even when he's unsure. Don't let him worm out of the bullshit he pulled today.
That's when he scumcased me.
But in this game, the third game he cited, it's clear he already saw me did this A LOT of times. Here is town!Roden reprimanding me and my response.
In post 2030, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 2020, Roden wrote:HEM if you're town this loss is legit your fault.
You backed off of nearly every push
, OMGUS'd everyone who even slightly suspected you, lied about your potions, and decided to death tunnel me Day 1 even after I tried to give you a chance to prove that you're town and work together to elim a common scum read.
Lol
as town my reads are fluid and pushing everyone is my preferred MO because then i never get pocketed or tunneled
. I didnt lie about my potion use at all, i legit thought i had pain potions because setup said everyone gets one so when i pm schadd and tells me i only have harmography im just as shocked. Deathtunnel you d1? You just said i pushed every sloy and how is pushing my scumread scummy?
You all have a wicked way to twist this as if it's my fault. Im not having that.
See there? Roden has experience with town!HEM backing off nearly every push because my reads are fluid.
the same reason he said I'm scum for here (before going back to me being town).
he linked this game, guys. he claims familiarity with me. it's blatant misrepresentation and if town, we haven't heard any admissions of guilt.
this is... it. like that's it. this is hem's best explanation of where he thinks roden's scum agenda is coming from, and it's some highly subjective nonsense about meta. i get being frustrated by this kind of thing, but an absolute deathtunnel which means roden is 100% scum and must die in order for the game to progress is just such an intense read for something as nothing as this. it gets worse too--
asking roden to join him on a wagon despite the strength of his read is pretty wild. but suggesting clidd seems to only benefit greeting. hem has stated part of his preference for this eod is having nobody else claim; clidd is unclaimed, and wagons there have faltered. clidd is also not an established wagon where at this point, greeting (who hem has voiced suspicion of) absolutely is. all this accomplishes is trying to create a possible third option which isn't greeting, and it isn't consistent with hem's ostensive motivation towards this end of day.
In post 1164, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
Absolutely not. I think it's a scum tell. He absolutely felt like he's going anytime now. He felt as if the extended amount of time to play the game was "torture" and "limbo"... not "hope" and "game time" which I expected if he was town. ^_^
this pinged me really hard as well. someone else mentions a potential tell, and hem appropriates it into his case. i do not get the impression that hem had considered roden's self-vote a scumtell until this point. given how flimsy & vague the rest of his case is, i'd be surprised if he *didn't* mention an actual tell he'd noticed. i guess what i'm getting at here is that there's a lot of evidence that hem wants roden dead, but very little evidence that hem has evaluated roden's alignment.
greeting, a slot hem has very little opinion of but is in his poe. widely agreed as a possible wagon candidate.
furtive, a slot greeting has been duelling since early in the game.
hem, an assertive player who likes picking up on weird things and grilling players who he doesn't have a read on.
greeting unvotes furtive, the third-largest wagon, because "we still have time" (?) without evaluating the read.
hem posts without acknowledging greeting.
greeting votes ckd because (summarily): "I'm not buying the walls of text at all... A lot of his reads (1189) feel completely contentless, and even the ones which actually have content feel watered-down." - this is a slot which hem is very convinced will flip town. greeting has stated no read on roden.
hem's reaction to this (1) again, asks a question which includes its own answer and (2) literally confesses that he wants greeting to be town despite the fact greeting is in hem's poe and he's spent absolutely no time evaluating his read through the entire game
In post 1222, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
In post 1216, Greeting wrote:
I simply disagree with most of them and have a feeling like they're not genuine.
I would also like you to elaborate why you don't buy karmadog's posts at all. Is it a specific read and progression? I'm truly curious because I want you to be town.
this comes just after the following posts, now including greeting in his scumteam:
hem is consistently giving now-flipped scum far too much room to move when he's consistently been overbearing and intense when interacting with townies.
In post 1241, humaneatingmonkey wrote:
VOTE: Roden Time to do it! I have no idea if this flips scum. God I hope so. Not 100% anymore. A good 70-80. Maybe I have been completely fooled by the AtE. I have reasons to scumread him, but it may have been clouded by excitement. However, I lean that I just had valid reads and I should just trust them.
But it's just the right thing to do for town at this point.
this is pretty tonal, but hem's vote here pinged me a bit too. it is definitely setting up for a miselim while trying to distance himself from the utter tunnel (to the point of vote-whipping) he's had all day. again it just doesn't feel sincere, i think hem is trying to telegraph that this is a real read more than he believes it.