Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[CrashTextDummie]

Lynch all D1 miller claims.

vote: Brian Skies

[CrashTextDummie]

TV U-Pick mafia

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Huh. I suppose it was. The scum were Ghostwriter, plenty and RedFF.

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And they all survived to endgame and won.

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I'm just going to quote myself from that game, because it's all still relevant and I can't expect everyone to follow the link:

D1 miller claims should always be scrutinized. Statistically, a miller claim is far more likely to come from scum since the "power" they are claiming, coming up guilty upon investigation, is present in the majority of scum roles whereas millers only appear in a fraction of games. Sitewide meta on how to handle miller claims fluctuates over time. Judging by this game, where no one is batting an eye at someone going "hey, I come up guilty when investigated, problem?", a lot more scum are going to claim miller in the near future across all games.

Claiming miller is not null. Claiming miller is admitting to a role characteristic that the vast majority of scum roles possesses. Claiming miller also doesn't just have merits as a scum gambit if it instantly makes you look town, the entire point of claiming miller as scum is to sidestep and invalidate the cop role.

I don't think claiming miller on D1 is even optimal pro-town play, but this is up to debate.

I know for a fact that this game has several scum roles that would come up as guilty upon a cop investigation (this game was not announced to be bastard). I do not know for a fact that this game features a miller. To suggest that a claim should simply be discarded as if it never happened is completely ludicrous, as claiming is about the most extreme act a player can take in a game of mafia, and one that is always dictated by intent and motive (i.e. the bread and butter of scumhunting).

Your alleged town motive is weak. A cop investigation can be avoided by playing to the town win condition during the day. Your scum motive is strong. There's only one way to avoid death in the long run upon being cop investigated as scum: by establishing a miller claim.

Brian's alleged town motive is even weaker than Ghostwriter's was in that game:

I wiki'ed my role and it says the safer route is to outright claim and prevent a wasted investigative report at the cost of my own life.

I strongly question whether this is the truth, because the wiki states no such thing. Claiming on D1 is not presented as the "safer" route , it's presented as one of two comparable schools of thought.

And then he lays the WIFOM on thickly:

But considering that I have already stated I expect the town to kill me at some point in this game (most likely pretty damn early), then

do you think I would have more to gain as town or as scum?

Wording of the underlined is way off, considering he himself has established the benefit of claiming early as town, and it's not to himself.

[CrashTextDummie]

Spyrex, I am disappointed. Was really hoping you'd be town this game.

Those of you still on Brian's wagon, why? Is it because you don't believe the claim, or some other reason?

Yeah, I don't believe the claim. By my count, we're up to three people now calling Brian town, when literally all he's done is claim a role that's well known for being a simple and effective fakeclaim. Oh wait, he did make one post that didn't serve the sole purpose of trying to make his claim stick:

@aeronaut: The difference is that notscience made the vote after clearly participating in the discussion. You made your vote upon your entrance.

A snipe at Aeronaut without taking any stance on his own. I see 100% self-preservatory actions and 0% scumhunting, which is classic scum behavior in a situation like this (again, check TV U-Pick mafia for reference). I maintain that he fumbled his claim with regards to the wiki and I'm quite frankly shocked at the amount of people town-reading him.

[CrashTextDummie]

Fferyllt and notscience are decent early town reads, and I'm leaning that way on Kazekirimaru as well.

Aeronaut is not exactly a town read, but not for the reasons he is being voted for. I don't think he has committed any scummy actions, but I do have some tonal issues. Regardless I dislike the wagon, particularly because of Smudger's opportunistic vote. If you guys insist on putting off dealing with Brian, I'd be happy to lynch him as well.

[CrashTextDummie]

Why is SpyreX scum?

His treatment of the miller claim rubbed me the wrong way. He says Brian's claim isn't the "usual garbage" because he didn't try use it as a shield, when in fact he did. His angle was specifically "I'm a miller, look elsewhere", and he only backtracked when called out on it. I was particularly displeased by Spyrex's claim that it's "impossible for scum not to bite" on a miller claim, because it's factually untrue (in my experience, scum typically don't attack claimed millers on D1) and reads as an underhanded attempt to dissuade town from voting Brian. I've seen this exact type of argument from scum before (again, reference user plenty in TV U-Pick mafia). His more recent posts haven't been better. It all reads insincere and off to me.

I agree that he needs to be dead before LYLO, but don't you think a D1 policy lynch right out the gate is a not-so-good idea?

I'm not pushing a policy lynch. I think claiming miller on D1 is scummy and I think Brian is scum.

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I'm juggling 9 games right now and this game just started. Sorry for considering a game that just started as low priority. If you still have a problem, just push for a policy lynch. I won't blame you for it.

Clearly you are paying attention and clearly you have time to argue about your miller claim and clearly you have time to give me cheek. I can see this game being a low priority for you, but it's also low maintenance. It doesn't take more time to form an opinion on a game as short as this than it does to read it, and your failure to do so illustrates your scummy mindset to me.

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As for the comment regarding my "opportunistic vote" I disagree with that for the simple reason it is not opportunistic, I am currently uncomfortable with Aeros play so far and I suggest you retread the post with my vote as I say
More than Baaaaaaahhj..

The post with your vote couldn't have been more ambiguous. Your stated reason was that you "didn't like the attitude". What attitude was making you uncomfortable and why did you find it scummy?

[CrashTextDummie]

SleepyKrew and Garmr move into the tentative town-pile. I'm inclined to put Plum there, but haven't really seen enough.

I look at Smudger's already quite substantial ISO and I see preciously little interest in trying to figure other players out.

unvote, vote: Smudger

Though people really have to start explaining to me how they are reading Brian as town, apart from his claim.

[CrashTextDummie]

I wasn't aware there's a wagon on you.

Vote Smudger?

[CrashTextDummie]

I mean what is this "chance to contribute" shit?

Because voting a lurker is lazy and voting a lurker at the beginning of the game is super lazy

I empathize with this statement, though I'd call it unproductive rather than lazy.

I also empathize with a desire to get Maestro to contribute, but I think those votes would be much better served on the people who

are

contributing without any noticeable intent of moving the game forward, namely Brian Skies and Smudger.

[CrashTextDummie]

Sleepy, I think you're barking up the wrong tree. He's been one of the more proactive players in the game so far, seems interested in figuring other people out and I can generally follow his thought process.

[CrashTextDummie]

@CTD: I understand wanting to vote Brian, but why Smudger?

He has placed weak votes based on vague reasoning, and the timing of the Aeronaut vote was suspect. He has no reads to speak of and I've seen no drive on his part change that. He's towards the very bottom in terms of scumhunting, instead he's engaging in pointless arguments (particularly the one with SleepyKrew). Check his ISO and let me know what you think.

[CrashTextDummie]

Didn't get much out of the catchup. I'm still not getting where everyone is getting a town read on Brian. The SK/Smudger back and forth made me a bit more comfortable on SK, but I kind of just skimmed through Smudger's post. Still like my vote where it is.

This is quite possibly the laziest post of the game. Why is Kaze scum?

Town but will become dead later:
Brian

I continue to be completely baffled by your treatment of this miller claim. What exactly is your angle here? He's town but if we mislynch a couple times, he might not be? You're simultaneously defending Brian based on weak reasoning but keeping your options open to lynch him down the line. Of particular inanity is your suggestion that a town sweep is an appropriate way of dealing with claimed millers, because you know as well as me that that's an exceedingly rare occurrence, and yet you're using it as an excuse for postponing a decision in the matter.

CTD is one note and that note is brown.

Elaborate.

As for no scum hunting content, I would venture that I am not the only one who that could be said of and find your singling me out rather puzzling?

Who are you comparing yourself to? I singled you out because you are scumhunting effort was low compared to your body of contribution and it looked to me like you were trying to appear active without actually doing much of anything.

Why do you assume I'm following along just because I post every now and then? I manage prod timers and deadlines. And once those are managed, I try to choose a game that needs attention and I see what I can do with it. Other than that, I'm not much of an aggressive Day 1 player unless I need to be.

Evidently, this game needed your attention when your claim was under scrutiny. It didn't need your attention once you were snug with a couple of town reads on you. That just so happens to perfectly line up with a scum agenda. Your excuse here is basically that you've over-extended yourself to the point where it reflects badly on your town play, and I find that awfully convenient.

[...] his skepticism towards people town-reading me just based on my miller claim gives me good town vibes, especially since I haven't done anything to earn my townreads.

What do you make of these people town reading you for no good reason? Are you being buddied up to?

[CrashTextDummie]

Something Fferyllt said made me do a cursory skim of some of Smudger's completed games, and I find myself agreeing that his play here isn't necessarily indicative of alignment. I'm willing to give it some time to develop.

I still sincerely doubt that this budding Maestro wagon is a productive use of votes.

Unvote, vote: YYR

As a general observation, could we please cut down on the one- and two-liners that have been cluttering up the last 5ish pages? I'd wager a bet that I'm not the only one who's attention span has suffered from it. You know who you are.

Also, CDB, if you're going to flake, please do it sooner rather than later.

[CrashTextDummie]

So a Spyrex wagon forms and loses steam before I even get to participate.

3.) I'm not "keeping options open". I'm stating a fact. If this isn't a sweep, a miller claim gets lynched because it WILL be lynched at lylo for a loss. Its too easy and it has to be dealt with. Period. I'm pretty sure that "the meta" hasn't shifted that much since I've been around and, if it has, thats bad and you should feel bad. I want to win without having to eat what WILL be a mislynch.

The big issue for me here is that you're calling Brian

town

while at the same time stating that he should be lynched later on. If you're against lynching him today for stated reasoning that you think he is town, why are you preemptively in favor of lynching him later? Again, the "we could town-sweep" argument is hogwash, because a mislynch or two has zero bearing on Brian's alignment.

I still didn't move my vote. Even though Empire is probably scum, Kaze is still the better lynch.

Why is Empire scum?

Dont fly all you want but this:

Spyrex- Calls me town, no reasoning. I feel like "oh if he's town he's a deadly scumhunter" is a bad reason to keep someone alive js.

is a baldfaced lie.

Your defense against the accusation that you're not scumhunting is that you're town hunting instead, and here you accuse one of your stated town reads of lying without it having any apparent influence on your read. I don't even.

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The SpyreX vote is stupid.

Unvote

VOTE: Empire

This one is better. As grandiose and impressive as his entrance is; it feels wrong to me at second glance. Miller claims...they draw attention. On their own they're null; but here they drew scrutiny faster than shouting "I'm Scum!" at the top of your lungs would ever be. Yet one of Empire's big reasons for voting SpyreX is because Spyre believed Miller claims aren't a shield. Well, they aren't. They may give you an excuse for returning guilty investigations, but in reading some games, Millers are basically a stigma. A Scarlet letter, if you will. There is no good advantage in claiming a Miller(This is my final muse on the subject of Millers.)

But, I digressed a bit. Despite all this, Empire still used his opinion to the contrary as a point to vote SpyreX. I don't like his reasoning. It looks like a mislynch push, and it seems to be working to an extent. I dislike it.

First of all, I have to once again point out that it is factually wrong that there is "no good advantage in claiming miller". I have posted a link to a game where a D1 miller fake claim allowed scum to coast for the rest of the game and win. I could get into the theory of why this happens, but suffice it to say that few town will just go "hey, time to policy lynch the claimed miller" three, four days into the game.

Secondly, is this the only issue you have with Empire's analysis?

Quite honestly, I don't like the company I'm in on it nor do I like how it formed.

Per your entry analysis, your company on the wagon was a "leaning town" read (Plum) and a pair of null reads (NS, Empire). Please elaborate.

[CrashTextDummie]

Couple more for Spyrex, courtesy of reading his ISO:

CTD is one note and that note is brown.

Still want this elaborated on.

Secondly, why is your Kaze case so utterly terrible?

This is predicated in Kaze's flailing arm inflatable tube man stunt being scum. Smudger is far more gut than the others. More than anything I'm willing to gamble here on SK-town because thats making more sense AND Kaze was a leaper on that miller badness.

The stated reason for your vote on him at the time. You accuse Kaze of being a "leaper on that miller badness". He was the second vote of the game, in the second post of the game, before the miller claim even happened. Strike one.

2.) He hedges his bet on the miller claim and blindly and blatantly as I've seen in forever. There is no committal to anything there and how you get town out of that I dont know.

He "hedged his bet" for a grand total of two pages, during which the miller claim was thoroughly deliberated. He may be accused of going with the flow, but that's not your angle of attack. Strike two.

3.) He then jumps onto the Aero wagon.

The irony here of course being that this was a wagon you fully supported (Aero blood and all that) at the time, without putting a vote on yourself. Strike three.

The general feeling I'm getting here is that you picked Kaze as a wagon target and tried to come up with reasons for it later. It most certainly doesn't feel like an organically developed suspicion.

Unvote, vote: Spyrex

[CrashTextDummie]

Correction to my last post:
Upon rereading the relevant portion of the game, it's arguably fair to interpret Kaze's initial reaction to the miller claim as hedging his bets. Still think Spyrex is grossly over-reaching.

- You cannot honestly tell me a Miller claim is an advantage. There is nothing good about it, that's why people generally hate rolling it.

People hate rolling it because it's a genuinely shitty role to have in a town, because it objectively sucks to claim early because it gives scum information they rather shouldn't have and because people hate claiming in general. I very strongly doubt that "having a stigma" is a large part of why people hate drawing the role.

Yes, it's a disadvantage for the town to have a genuine D1 miller claim, with the only advantage being that you don't risk a false positive from a cop. Scum doesn't share this disadvantage in faking the claim. I have already given you several big advantages scum gain from successfully establishing a miller claim, and the only disadvantage, this so called "miller stigma" is severely overstated in today's metagame.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm not sure what glasses you're using when you read my posts but lets get one thing clear: Being cognizant of something that will happen is not the same as being in favor of it. It is in no way shape or form a leap or a Nostradamus prediction that Brian will end up dead unless the game is in a state where that doesn't need to happen. So, go ahead and drink your own hogwash if you think that the game state doesn't have any affect on the lynch.

And never, never ever did I make any statements about Brian's alignment. He's town, but that doesn't change the fact down the road. This isn't even car science, much less rocket science.

The essence of this is still "Brian is town, but if the game gets to a certain stage (i.e. not a clean sweep), he needs to die", and it still doesn't make any sense.

Nope. I'm not playing speak and spell. If you dont see why I think he's scum from a post you are quoting you're either being willfully obtuse or *gasp* dont care enough to look. Its almost like its a trend.

Don't give me that crap. I hate it when people play "I see something that you don't see" in mafia. All you've had to say about Maestro is that he's lazy and needs to "step up or die". That's awfully thin reasoning to say that Empire is "probably scum", particularly when the "lazyness" in question on Maestro's part has resulted in dropping out.

There's not a "defense". There's nothing to defend. What I did say, and just reiterated is that notscience is lying. The original statement was a lie. End point. You either think I am lying about his lie, or telling the truth. End point.

So NS is scum?

[CrashTextDummie]

LolWagon's dance around Spyrex doesn't sit right with me. He came in gunning for Spyrex, but changed his tune because he "didn't particularly like" some of the later jumps on the wagon, and because Spyrex's responses had given him pause. I find that needlessly opaque. I don't have the first hand experience that he claims to have of playing with Spyrex, so what exactly about Spyrex's responses has made him reconsider? There's also a curious interaction with CDB, where he remarks that LolWagons should be voting Brian based on his analysis, and in his very next post, LolWagons does just that. Feels more like he was correcting the course than an organic progression of thought.

In the one game I played with Empire, I found him to be very transparently town, and I'm gonna wait and see if that shines through in this game as well before I put much thought into reading him.

CDB's latest posts with regards to Spyrex read a bit like he's choosing his words a little too carefully, but it's not a strong ping and I think his play overall has been appropriately inquisitive when he does show up to play.

YYR and Brian are coasting hard-core, and I hate it.

I have some business with Kaze, but I need Empire to post first.

[CrashTextDummie]

Spyre's neighborhood with notscience and the interactions regarding it are actually solidifying my townread on the former.

I actually empathize with this to a degree. While I find aspects of it hair-raisingly asinine (Spyrex suggesting that a town/town neighborhood is "far more likely" than a town/scum neighborhood, Spyrex anticipating a fake neighbor claim), the manner of the claim did strike me as the first thing out of Spyrex's mouth that feels more likely to come from town than scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Mod: that votecount is incorrect. Kaze is voting Empire

Now, I get to do something I don't think I've ever done before because you've got this knack for getting right under my skin.

The sentiment is entirely mutual. At least I got a kick out of you giving me, of all people, a lecture on your pedigree. I have a bit of experience myself, and your theory stances are simply incompatible with mine. But you've presented them with enough conviction at this point that I can see them not being scum-motivated.

This entire conversation is reminding me more and more of spats I've had with The Fonz, who I've spent pages arguing with because we have a knack for getting under each other's skin. I'm beginning to feel that we may have just started off on the wrong foot and I'm inclined to give you the benefit of doubt.

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UNVOTE:
VOTE: Brian Skies

I need to do some ISOs later but right now, I think we've generated lots of good discussion and it's time to get this utility lynchtrain choo chooing.

I like this vote a lot less than I wanted to. What happened to this?

I agree that he needs to be dead before LYLO, but don't you think a D1 policy lynch right out the gate is a not-so-good idea?

You've argued against a policy lynch and otherwise didn't have much to say about Brian. What changed?

[CrashTextDummie]

Still think this is the laziest post in the game:

Didn't get much out of the catchup. I'm still not getting where everyone is getting a town read on Brian. The SK/Smudger back and forth made me a bit more comfortable on SK, but I kind of just skimmed through Smudger's post. Still like my vote where it is.

He was the first to vote Kaze based on rather weak reasoning, which wasn't really a problem considering the stage of the game we were in. However in the meantime, a serious wagon had formed (L-2) and Kaze had addressed YYR's line of attack, so for him to drop in just stating that he "likes [his] vote where it is" is seriously suspect to me. This post was allegedly the result of a catch-up, and if that's all he had to say, I very strongly question if he has any interest in scum-hunting.

And his latest post reads to me like he's trying to come up with reasons to remove his vote from a dead wagon without outright having to reverse his read more than anything else. It seems forced and image-conscious.

Unvote, Vote: YYR

[CrashTextDummie]

I have some business with Kaze, but I need Empire to post first.

I ponder what business that would be.

Ponder no longer.

- Yeah, kinda. But it's the important point: the issue is with the reason he has a vote on someone. If I find flaw in voting reasoning, it feels good enough to me to throw a vote on them. Townies are supposed to be thorough when they profess to seriously vote someone. Scum however don't need to put as much thought into their votes. They know who scum is, they just need to mislynch town. So if a person like Empire makes a grand entrance, explains verbosely and at-length about their vote, and appears to have given thought to their selection - yet I still find their vote reasoning fundamentally flawed? It looks like posturing to me. Vote. You best believe I'm throwing it down.

The reason I asked you about your Empire suspicion is because his Spyrex case was very similar to my own, including the part you took offense with. And if that's the only reason you voted him, I have to question why you weren't bothered by the argument when I made it.

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SleepyKrew, is there a difference between a utility lynch and a policy lynch?

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Plum, any reads on someone not named Spyrex?

[CrashTextDummie]

YYR and Kaze dropping out without addressing my issues with them is awfully inconvenient. Dorcas needs to get his ass in here already.

So that's ChannelDelibird's fourth prod. Might think about looking for a replacement if this keeps up but for now I'm too lazy -____-

Please do replace him.

Also, CDB, if you're going to flake, please do it sooner rather than later.

[CrashTextDummie]

VOTE COUNT 1.10

Spyrex:

Plum, Notscience

YYR:

fferyllt, CrashTextDummie

Empire:

Kazekimaru

ChannelDelibird:

Brian Skies

Kazekirimaru

:

Garmr

, SpyreX

Brian Skies:

ChannelDelibird, LolWagons, SleepyKrew

Not Voting:

YYR, Empire

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

If your vote is in italics, it needs to be put to better use. Spyrex and Kaze are dead wagons. Brian's CDB vote is a bad joke at this stage of the game. "It pings the gut" on a guy no one is interested in is just an excuse to park your vote. With 7/13 votes either stagnant or not in use, it's no wonder the game is going nowhere. With the amount of mutual town reads going on, it should be possible to find common ground somewhere.

Empire, could you please provide a game you think best represents your scum play?

[CrashTextDummie]

Sure, Aeronaut's vote on a Brian wagon looks bad, and his defense-by-word-play doesn't help his case, but I don't understand why more flak was given to him rather than anyone else. Why did CTD's policy vote on Brian go uncontested?

Do you think my vote was bad? Elaborate, please.

CTD - Can you explain this vote?

Explained in the post before:

Didn't get much out of the catchup. I'm still not getting where everyone is getting a town read on Brian. The SK/Smudger back and forth made me a bit more comfortable on SK, but I kind of just skimmed through Smudger's post. Still like my vote where it is.

This is quite possibly the laziest post of the game. Why is Kaze scum?

Elaborated on why I found this to be the scummy kind of lazy here:

He was the first to vote Kaze based on rather weak reasoning, which wasn't really a problem considering the stage of the game we were in. However in the meantime, a serious wagon had formed (L-2) and Kaze had addressed YYR's line of attack, so for him to drop in just stating that he "likes [his] vote where it is" is seriously suspect to me. This post was allegedly the result of a catch-up, and if that's all he had to say, I very strongly question if he has any interest in scum-hunting.

[CrashTextDummie]

Who would be a better vote, CTD?

You know who my suspects are. Figure it out yourself. Do you disagree that your vote would be better used elsewhere? What purpose does it serve at this point?

I don't want to waste our Day 1 lynch on a miller claim. It robs us of information for day 2. Scum can easily pass on "Yeah, this lynch should happen," instead of contributing in a meaningful way.

Don't understand this reasoning at all.

Meaningfulness of content can be evaluated independently from who we lynch. Treatment of the miller claim in light of his flip

is

valuable information. I don't see how a Brian lynch would be less informational than any other.

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I did some reminiscing about the good old days and realized that I actually replaced into a game with Spyrex and Plum once (the latter being part of a hydra) where they were both scum and I correctly read the former and was completely snowed by the latter. I'll try to find the time to reread it. Did a very cursory glance of the two games Empire linked and don't feel confident in forming a full meta yet.

[CrashTextDummie]

Brian, why do you categorize yourself as "not a day 1 player"?

[CrashTextDummie]

I am, CTD said it was wrong. So, I want to know who he thinks I should vote.

If I tell you who to vote, will you do it? My guess is no, since this is a redundant question and you're being a smartass.

I didn't say your vote was wrong, I said you need to put it to better use. That means either moving it or giving it more weight. The wagon you're on is dead. You're doing nothing to change that.

I made a case against YYR not that long ago, it's implicit that I think that would be a good vote. But I shouldn't have to tell you explicitly who to vote. Either sheep my case or come up with your own.

I can't believe I got back out of bed to make this post.

[CrashTextDummie]

Can we please feed Grimgroove rope?

[CrashTextDummie]

I didn't think your vote was bad. I was just making a point. I don't understand why Aero got the flak instead of anyone else.

If you didn't think my vote was bad, why did you single it out? Who should have gotten flak instead?

Why do you have a town read on Plum?

[CrashTextDummie]

Grimgroove has improbably rehabilitated the YYR slot, [...].

Grimgroove feels great - high, but super proactive in a catchup read. His scumhunting drive feels pretty convincing.

Are we even reading the same game? Cause every joke post of his made me want to lynch him a little more.

Plum, how is Grimgroove "super proactive in a catchup read"? Even 4 days in, his catchup read doesn't seem to have advanced past page 10. And what about his scumhunting drive feels convincing to you? At the time of your assessment, he had a grossly hyperbolic case against Kaze and a bit of OMGUS right out of DGB's book of scum. I saw a drive to put on a show rather than a drive to scumhunt.

My lynchpool for this daystage will be, partially based on PoE, in order of current preference:

Lolwagons, SleepyKrew (apart from what was mentioned above about thier predecessors, not liking their interaction (Lolwagons still being Smudger at the time) at the second half of page 7/page 8, maybe it's confbias talking but this reads like a play between two scum, where one can play "Mr. Why U Townread Me?", which always scores with the ladies, and the other one can come out unscathed because his fluffy interrogator allows him to)
Plum (bad gut feeling after his big entry-post)
Empire (still no read at this point, so he still is an option)

And I'm extremely surprised only one of them currently has a vote on him.

Still reading-up, but I feel strongly enough about it to already express my intentions in this regard.

A single post by Kaze was "game-changing" enough for you to reverse an "obvscum" read. 4 pages later, you're confident enough to narrow the scum down to 4 people. I'm finding it very hard to take your reads seriously.

Suddenly, I'm starting to wonder about Brian Skies.

You were "almost sold" by his ISO #3 and Fferyllt doubting whether a new player would make such a gambit "sealed the deal". You are now questioning whether he's a new player, which I can see "unsealing the deal", but I don't see how it affects the basis of your alleged read. Please explain your thought process.

To be honest I'm really not certain how to undertake this catch-up. I'm in it for fun and browsing through 25 pages and taking miticulous notes on everyone simply isn't going to happen. Normally I like to be precise in communication but it would be too tedious to cover all those pages in my usual style.

What about this game is giving you trouble exactly? This is not a particularly strenuous game to replace into, there's more than plenty of one- and two-line posts to balance out the modest walls.

The manner in which you've elected to structure your analysis strikes me as dubious. You're moving through the game at a snail's pace, all the while insisting on a deadline extension. I get portioning a read-through upon replacing in, but not in a game of this size. Meticulously giving reads after having read 6 pages of a 30 page game is completely over the top. It screams "look at how comprehensive my thought process is!". There is very little pro-town benefit to most of what you've contributed so far, because you've demonstrated twice now that even your most strongly worded reads are far from solid. The only real benefit to your manner of posting is that it tends to garner town reads, providing strong scum motivation to do so. I've used similar tactics as scum in the past and it works remarkably well (and is easy to pull off to boot).

If you are town, you need to stop what you're doing, spend an hour and a half reading the full game and

then

give your reads.

[CrashTextDummie]

unvote, vote: Brian Skies

I'll have more in about 12 hours.

[CrashTextDummie]

Hell yeh who ever. is vig is way better at picking scum than me. I Would of shot peabody or NS.

What an odd statement. Why do you assume that your vig choices would have been worse?

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD (shock) was the vote that pushed Brian ahead.

Ayup. I regret holding off on committing to an Empire read, but I can't really feel bad about pushing the Brian wagon towards the edge.

I have a feeling the empire wagon was pure town. Maybe 1 more scum on the Brian Skies wagon?

Do you have a scum read on Grimgroove or Garmr?

Empire on CDB and CDB on Maestro/Empire

What about this interaction makes you think they're scum buddies?

--------------

NS, why Brian over Empire? Looking at your ISO, you never really committed to a Brian read (he was null in every substantial analysis post of yours), while you did express a scum lean on Empire at one point.

-------------

Not really interested in people off the wagon. Grimgroove defended himself well enough against my accusations and I have trouble seeing him tooting a scum buddy's horn like he did Empire's at the end of yesterday. On the Brian wagon, I think CDB and Peabody are likely town. In the context of his ISO, notscience's vote looks most suspect to me.

vote: notscience

[CrashTextDummie]

If anyone wants to ask me stuff/point me to anything I missed, this is a good time. I've got my head further into the game than I have before and would like to capitalise it in a slightly less rambling way than this large post. Hit me.

Why is notscience a town read?
Any thought on wagon composition at the end of yesterday?
Any thought on the LolWagons kill?
Your Ffery read doesn't exactly look like a scum read, and it's implied that you're not very confident in your CTD/SK reads. How does your suspicion of the former rank against your read on the latter two?

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD stood out for being mildly antagonistic towards the Maestro wagon and trying to get votes off it. It was neither as prominent a position as SK's not as inquisitve; it was basically just 'don't vote Maestro; I empathize with you guys but you should vote somewhere else'. That seems a more likely scummy position to me than SK's, though I do mean to look at that more - maybe later tonight, maybe tomorrow. CTD was minimally discussed by Empire yesterday (though he also was minimally pressured); not indicative of very much, but doesn't give any pause to my feelings about how CTD related to the Maestro wagon.

If you think I was only mildly antagonistic towards the Maestro wagon, maybe I should have made myself clearer. I thought it was a total waste of time. People are garnering town reads for participating (most recently notscience from CDB), which I don't get at all. There's no safer way to vote a scumbuddy than in a situation like this, because these wagons never lead anywhere. I stand by my opinion that Maestro's lack of posting and subsequent replacing out was not alignment indicative.

I did not oppose the Empire wagon, and on that I definitely should have made myself clearer. I lacked the confidence to vote him over Brian and thought I'd have the time to elaborate on this before the deadline hit. I can understand if this part of my play were to be scrutinized. But for you to criticize me for taking a stance against a pure lurker wagon on someone who happened to be scum when you had not a word to say about him yourself strikes me as more than a little hypocritical.

Why do you have CDB as town?

I've danced this dance with CDB many, many times and I think I have a pretty good grasp on his play. The sporadic posting is par for the course for him, but when he did show up to play in this game, he showed an inquisitiveness and a penchant for scum-hunting that I find uncharacteristic for scum-CDB. He's comfortable being perpetually behind as scum, I've seen him lurk through entire games (more prolific than this one) as scum without ever making an effort. Here I think he is trying to pull his weight, and that translates to him probably being town.

[CrashTextDummie]

Can you suggest some games where you feel CDB's play was similar to this one and he was town?

Not one I've personally played in. Most of our shared games are ancient history and not very memorable. We both used to flake a lot and replaced each other a couple of times. I did follow along this game partly to check if I can still read him, and had him quickly figured out as town. I can suggest a game where his play was different from this one where he was scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

2. I believe it was a slip but as my suspect pointed out there's players more experienced at catching things so I am going to ask them do you agree with my thinking.
3. The slip was Empire knowing that scum had pregame chat.

I've been working under the assumption that scum had pregame chat ever since Spyrex claimed that he chatted pregame with ns. It's possible that Empire slipped, but there is and was no reason to assume this was the case.

I've lost touch with this game and will reread.

[CrashTextDummie]

Edit: Lol really? All y'all dodging???

Adding myself to the list. I have a couple hours set aside for this game tomorrow.

[CrashTextDummie]

I just can't get back into this game. Hopefully, an SK replacement can breathe new life into it.

I'm still not okay with a CDB lynch.

notscience, stop looking scummy, your antics will possibly halt this wagon on scum. Thank you for your understanding.

I didn't really see this as scummy antics. Antics, sure, but more the "let's make something happen" kind. The "whoops, didn't mean to put him at L-1" take-back is more problematic to me. I don't really understand why you'd object to your #1 suspect being put at L-1.

unvote, vote: Plum

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm voting Plum because she's the only player in the game who hasn't, at some point, given me any reason to think she's town. I was inclined to town-read her towards the beginning of the game, but that was before I remembered that we played before and that her style of posting naturally looks good to me.

Rereading her slot offers the following:
She has a pretty dreadful voting record, the only vote of hers that looks half-way legit in context is the D1 Spyrex vote, and I think she held on to it too long for comfort (read: long past its expiration date), which gives me the impression that she lacks pro-activeness. This is well illustrated by what she did with her vote next, which was a very limp move onto Peabody that looked to be motivated more by a desire to change her vote for want of not looking stagnant rather than an actual act of scumhunting.

Her vote on Brian was perhaps the worst of the bunch, she spent a good amount of the early going defending his miller-claim and basically ended up voting him for lurking. She did set the groundwork for a turn-around, and it feels distinctively slimy to me:

Plum, thoughts on Brian lynch?

Better than YYR/Grimgroove (have skimmed ahead); Brian is somewhat scummier to my reading (esp. given Grimgroove reads Townish to me). May be the best viable option, especially given that the chances of him looking much better and not being a constant is-he-or-isn't-he debate as the game goes on don't seem particularly high, either.

Weak language ("somewhat scummier"), only discusses him in relation to Grimgroove, sets him up as "best viable option" for the weird reason of "he's not likely to improve his game".

Empire interactions look plausibly buddy-ish. Some snide remarks in his direction, but seemingly not a lot of interest in his slot. She ends up "leaning town a bit" on him.

Her pushes today simply don't look town motivated to me. I asked her earlier what about the CDB-Empire interaction she considered scummy, and I found her answer to be lacking. I get the impression that went into her day-opening analysis wanting to present 3 viable buddies, rather than having developed three legitimate suspicions. In this context, I find her vote switch to CDB opportunistic. I maintain that the CDB wagon is bad and she is the worst offender.

[CrashTextDummie]

Which was scummy in itself, given it was a huge break from his usual game and he never once answered to my comments. He alsoied about catching up one day. He was simply buying time.

SK flaked in a bunch of games. One I loosely followed (Hip Hop Mafia) he was scum in. Still don't think it's alignment telling.

[CrashTextDummie]

With a little more than a day until deadline, we should either force a claim out of CDB and go from there or work on a viable counter-wagon. I obviously prefer option b. I don't think an SK wagon based purely on his flaking has a lot of legs, but I'm not generally opposed to his lynch if ABR doesn't start putting in effort. I think Plum is more likely to flip scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Fuck. I'm so sorry. This isn't fair, I'm not going to have enough time over the next few days to catch up with this. Particularly sorry to CTD 'cause at least I've completed games with some of the others here.

Mod:

Huge apologies. It's best if I request replacement. Sorry for not manning up and recognising as much sooner.

Wow. Dropping out as one of the leading wagons 4 hours before deadline. Obviously not shocked about the drop out, but good grief that's fucking dismal.

[CrashTextDummie]

Grimgroove, NS, Peabody, Fferyllt seem to be online. Basically the entire "lynch ABR, don't lynch Plum" crew (and Ffery). I'm willing to lynch ABR under these circumstances, but we might not have the votes.

[CrashTextDummie]

Unvote, vote: ABR

[CrashTextDummie]

A CDB lynch is possible, but he will still very likely flip town (even more likely with the request to be replaced).

[CrashTextDummie]

Grimgroove, why are you so opposed to lynch Plum? Her defense against my post is easily whipped up by competent scum and doesn't change my opinion of her one bit.

[CrashTextDummie]

Maybe. The last person who requested replacement at the 11th hour in a game of mine was scum.

Given my history with CDB, I don't see him pulling this as scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

How are you feeling about GrimGroove? And is Plum still your strongest scum read?

Grimgroove kind of won me over in our exchange towards the end of D1. His play yesterday is a double-edged sword for me. He was one of the more pro-active people in the game, but it's possible he strong-armed the ABR lynch to help out Plum. I'd probably look at Garmr for Plum-buddy first though.

Yes, Plum is still my strongest scum read. Even stronger today with notscience and ABR flipping town.

vote: Plum

L-1.

[CrashTextDummie]

So CTD what do you think of my case on Yates. Do you agree or disagree and also tell me the reasons why.

I think at best it's a product of confirmation bias, at worst it's a chainsaw defense of Plum. The most remarkable thing about it is that you're case-making to begin with, apart from a small NS-case on D1, it hasn't been your style at all. Yates hasn't done anything to change my opinion of his slot from yesterday.

My turn: Why have you literally never mentioned Plum all game? What do you make of the fact that she's at L-1? What's your read on her? What do you think of her reaction to being put at L-1?

[CrashTextDummie]

Progression of Garmr's read on SK:

Aghh sorry i was going to post in the morning which would of been 1 day and 23 hours (pushing it close) but I over sleeped. My opinions really haven't changed

scum read
Notscience
peabody


town
ferrylt
Sleepy krew
CrashTestDummies


Null- The rest.

@SK what happened to your full on hunting attitude you had yesterday. I understand if it's something that happens inrl, are you sick???.

It means that CDB and SK are my only scum reads.

SK (the person you replaced) was acting very weird today and I currently have her as scum suspect. She went from a aggressive day 1 to a lurky day 2.

VOTE: Albert

SK was a scum read for today. It must suck fudge to get lynched after you replace in.

Sleepy was his second strongest town read on D1 and managed to become one of his two only scumreads on D2 on account of his lurking, shortly after Garmr said he'd understand if Sleepy was sick (Sleepy had mentioned repeatedly that he was suffering from chronic headaches).

I suppose Garmr really,

really

dislikes lurking. Or does he?

I had ABR as slight scum read yes but I actually perfected your slot and only hammered ABR because we had one hour in the day left.

Oh wait, ABR was only a slight scum read and Garmr only hammered because of the deadline.

Spyrex, you're going to have to explain your town read on this dude to me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Plum's lack of claim means she should be hammered at will.

[CrashTextDummie]

Also yates seems uneasy and is pushing for a lynch to end. Scum wagons tend to be the hardest to lynch and I think yates is scum and yates has been a wagon for today and yesterday. I think I found a possible scum buddy for Yates but it's to early to say because I also have had a town read on this person most the game but it is the most viable partner when yates flips scum so its conflicting.

Why beat around the bush? It's obvious you're talking about me.

I'm going to address the rest of Garmr's stuff in a bit, want to do some rereading first.

I think this game is very nearly in the bag. Plum is almost certainly scum.

[CrashTextDummie]

Upon rereading, Garmr looks more likely to be a Plum/Empire buddy than Grimgroove, but only marginally so. I think Spyrex, Yates, Peabody are all town based on strength of reads, scumhunting effort and interactions. I can't rule out Fferyllt as scum, but it's exceedingly unlikely.

Our cop should consider claiming, it's pretty obvious who they are and who their targets were and I wasn't PR hunting. I'm not sure if our protective role is paying enough attention though. Scum roleblocker is dead, so I think it's okay for me to point this out.

Responses to Garmr coming up.

[CrashTextDummie]

When I said I only had two scum reads I didn't say look this a strong one and this a weak one I just said my two scum reads because they were my only 2 scum reads. Also yes I don't like lurkers but when I feel I have a stronger case I go for it and I feel like Yates slot is scum. So if you had a 70 percent chance of being right on 1 and 40 percent on the other what would you pick? Me I pushed for the wagon I felt would most likely flip scum. I was fine with the hammer due to time constraint. But truthfully I wanted.

40% of being right is technically a town read. You are arguing that you neglected to mention that ABR/SK really wasn't that strong of a scum read, but that doesn't translate into your hammer post at all.

Also I went for my strongest scum read and pushed for it. Also why can't my opinions change day 1. SK Basically changed his game entirely from day 1 Is he saying I have to keep my day 1 views. Even the way SK spoke changed and the way he pushed for a Brian lynch which I didn't really care for when I looked back day 2.

Also the progression thing Didn't happen in just a few posts. The way ctd posted that gives the illusion it happened quickly. Have a look at the number of posts. That happened over a 500 post period. Thats October the 14 to November 12 that's almost a month. Over a month time my read of Sk was slowly changing not like 5 posts.

Then let's shave off 300 of those posts and look at the true progression of your read:

Well looking at the past day I decided to throw away all my reads and reread it all again. I do not include meta in any of my reads because I don't know anyone's meta. Also I am starting to think kaze/peabody was town due to fferylt case and my new scum suspects view of them. Ns is still shifty through.

This is from your first real analysis post of D2, which was mostly an attack on CDB. From the people you had on your earlier reads list, NS is still a scum read but Peabody not so much anymore. There is zero indication that your read on SK has changed at all.

Then let's look at your next 200 posts: Turns out you were mostly Prod dogding.

Post #1131 is the absolute first indication that you had an issue with SK, and you went from there to scum reading him within 40 posts even though you specifically gave him leeway if his lack of posting was RL related (which he asserted multiple times was the case).

There is

zero

evidence that your SK scum read was slowly changing.

Also CTD Before today I haven't gave opinions on lolwagons a either and we know his town. Also I gave the same amount of time to Plum as I gave to you and GG and brian skies(Who's dead). I can't be bothered focusing on this game to much. Day 1 was blagh policy lynch the miller shit I hate miller but I'm trying to get around the fact they are a popular role. Day 2 wasn't any better. It was a boring snoozefeast and day 3 is agitating because My number 1 scum read is using retarded omgus tells when he is actually omgusing me and is so fucking hypocritical with a weak defense and no one see's it from my point of veiw and CTD has chainsawed for him and the sad thing is he could be town and I want to slap the shit out of everyone who can't see what Yates is doing.

Lolwagons, Grimgroove and myself were never focal points of the game to the extent that Plum is right now or even yesterday. Your ignorance of Brian Skies is indeed an issue. Your defense here is basically "but I ignored town players as well!"

Earlier, you lamented that you had too many town and null reads and how this never happened to you before, and now you admit that really you couldn't be arsed to develop reads.

I've asked you specific questions about Plum and instead of answering, you launch an OMGUS attack against me.

You can drop dead.

[CrashTextDummie]

Upon rereading, Garmr looks more likely to be a Plum/Empire buddy than Grimgroove, but only marginally so.

Should add that this is my impression based on interactions with known (and soon to be known) scum. Garmr's posts on this page are scummy as fuck.

[CrashTextDummie]

[CrashTextDummie]

I now wish I hadn't brought this up.

Fferyllt, please just hammer Plum. Any further discussion of power roles is bound to do more harm than good and you guys are idiots for having it.

Plum is caught scum. I don't know where this "intent to hammer" business is coming from, but Plum knows to claim when put at L-1. Her claim is obviously fake.

[CrashTextDummie]

Peabody, claim your results.

It's probably time to massclaim anyway.

[CrashTextDummie]

I'm vanilla town.

[CrashTextDummie]

I know you're well-meaning, Garmr (you're cleared beyond reasonable doubt), but there's no point in speculating before all the cards are on the table.

This should all be pretty clear after Spyrex's and Yates' claims.

[CrashTextDummie]

I have infinite bragging rights because I sent the mod a PM last night predicting all three PR claims (Peabody investigating NS and Plum, Spyrex killing Empire and NS, Yates protecting Spyrex) and I expect this PM to be posted in post-game.

[CrashTextDummie]

Neighbor/vig is considered normal. Any normal role + neighbor is considered normal.

Spyrex is undoubtedly a vig and not an SK, otherwise he wouldn't have claimed the kills. If we lynch scum today and the game isn't over, he's an automatic lynch.

Peabody is undoubtedly a cop because the play fits to a T and set-up balance is off if he's not. If he was scum, he also didn't have to clear Garmr, who is undoubtedly town as well.

If Fferyllt is miraculously not scum, the only possible culprit is Yates, and this can easily be solved by a combination of vigging/copping/lynching him and myself.

The only remaining question is who gets to hammer Fferyllt.

[CrashTextDummie]

Spyrex can take as long as he wants.

[CrashTextDummie]

Vote: Fferyllt

[CrashTextDummie]

My question for CTD is why you were PMing the mod in the first place?

Bragging rights. In theory I can still have them if Garmr is godfather. Not sure that's the most likely scenario.

No, we already know who the confirmed are. Me and Spyrex. Either of us will die tonight if we no lynch. So the lynch has to be between you two. CTD and Garmr.

I'd like to hear if I'm in anyway wrong.

The reason we don't want to no-lynch is that Spyrex is still alive. Assuming he's a vig (which you do), that gives us two people to kill instead of one. You are not confirmed. It's also not true that town has necessarily lost if Spyrex is an SK. For as much thought as you seem to have into the situation, your arguments are pretty awful.

Some set-up speculation coming up.

[CrashTextDummie]

For these hypothetical set-ups, I'm assuming SK for Spyrex, godfather for Garmr (you may substitute myself, it doesn't make a difference), indeterminate for Peabody for scenarios in which they are scum.

The possibilities are:

Miller, 1-shot BP, doc, neighbor, cop, neighbor/vig + 4 vanilla town

vs.

godfather, roleblocker, goon

Miller, 1-shot BP, doc, neighbor, neighbor/vig + 5 vanilla town

vs.

roleblocker, goon, indeterminate

Miller, 1-shot BP, doc, neighbor, cop + 4 vanilla town

vs.

neighbor/SK

vs.

godfather, roleblocker, goon

Miller, 1-shot BP, doc, neighbor + 5 vanilla town

vs.

neighbor/SK

vs.

roleblocker, goon, indeterminate

Miller, 1-shot BP, doc, neighbor, cop + 5 vanilla town

vs.

neighbor/SK

vs.

roleblocker, goon

That should cover every possibility. For balance considerations, neighbor is roughly equivalent to vanilla town, though neighbor/vig is arguably slightly stronger than a straight vig (at least I believe most set-up designers think that).

Right of the bat, I think the bottom two variants can be discarded. Either the scum team is vastly underpowered or the town is. If Spyrex is an SK, Garmr is scum. The top two variants both look plausible at least. The combination of doc/cop/vig is arguably the most powerful combination of town power-roles and this set-up probably favors town in spite of mitigating factors (GF, miller, RB). The second variant is probably the most balanced if Peabody is a goon (or a weak scum PR).

[CrashTextDummie]

There's no way to tell the real reason why we've been missing nightkills. It's plausible both on N2 and N3 that ffery was the scum target, more likely on N3. Unfortunately, that means Yates protecting me doesn't clear me. I assume Spyrex is going to claim to have shot Peabody last night.

[CrashTextDummie]

Regardless of who we think is most likely that last mafiate (for me, it's obviously between Peabody and Garmr), the safe play is to lynch one of the claimed vanillas (i.e. Garmr or myself). This way, if Spyrex is an SK, he knows for certain who to shoot for reasons outlined above.

Time for rereading.

[CrashTextDummie]

Blegh, this is the kind of post I didn't want to see from you, Spyrex. If you're that confident Garmr is scum, we can lynch Peabody.

I may end up wanting to lynch myself the way this is shaping up.

[CrashTextDummie]

Why didn't you shoot Peabody? Simple, no-risk way to confirm Yates.

[CrashTextDummie]

If that's where you stand, I sure prefer it to be me.

I kind of didn't expect you to be alive today. If you had been killed and Peabody along with you, it would have been easy to lynch Yates. If you had been killed and Peabody was still alive, I would have strongly considered Yates cleared because shooting Peabody was clearly the best move for you.

I'm very paranoid about Peabody right now. If you're not willing to go there, there's nothing I can do about it. But I can force a lynch on myself to at least improve our odds.

[CrashTextDummie]

Seriously, I can't comprehend why you'd consider shooting Yates before Peabody. As I was staring at the closed topic, the realization dawning on me that Ffery was a mislynch, it's the first, most obvious play I thought of and hoped you would do. It's kind of moot now, but what the hell.

[CrashTextDummie]

Straight up, if Spyrex stand by his position that it's between myself and Garmr, I will only accept my own lynch.

If Spyrex pinky swears that he won't shoot me, I'll support whichever one of Peabody/Garmr I consider less likely to be scum.

The only person you can lynch without my consent is myself.

That's the deal.

[CrashTextDummie]

No, this is maximizing the town's chance of winning. If Garmr is scum and you are SK, lynching him loses the game. If Garmr is scum and you are town, lynching me wins the game.

If you can't see that I'm obvious town, that's the best odds we have. If you're willing to work with me, those odds can be improved, particularly if you are town.

[CrashTextDummie]

Obviously, if Garmr is town, we lose regardless of your alignment if I can't convince you I'm town.

[CrashTextDummie]

Spyrex, read my ISO. Read my interactions with Empire. Read my interactions with Plum. Read me for interactions with known town. Read me for tone and intent. Think about why Peabody wasn't killed 2 nights ago. Think about what I'm proposing. I'm willing to answer questions.

If after all that you can't see that I'm town, we can go ahead and lynch me.

[CrashTextDummie]

Here's how this will go.

vote: CTD

Garmr should vote me. A hammer by Peabody should be considered a scum claim. Spyrex decides when the day ends. We talk it out. We discuss all angles of Peabody/Garmr. If Spyrex ends up deciding the risk of me bluffing is too high, I get lynched.

[CrashTextDummie]

Not shocked Spyrex was SK. Pretty shocked scum had only two members. I imagine they're not too happy about this game.

Well played, Spyrex. Even without rushing the last two days, I don't see how we could have won this.

[CrashTextDummie]

Thanks for modding, pitoli! I think the set-up was thematically interesting with a lot of protective power to puzzle out. Unfortunately, the decision to have only two scum members kind of screwed over both teams. Other than somewhat infrequent post-counts, I thought you did a great job.

We actually could have played better on the second to last day. Unfortunately, it only occurred to me in hindsight that Ffery's claim could have been tested. I'm not sure if that would have given us enough time to figure out we were out of scum though.

I'm surprised Spyrex so confidently lynched me, I don't think he could be certain there was no scum left based on available information. I stand by the fact that I made the optimal play and I take my mislynch as penance for hammering Ffery. :p

[CrashTextDummie]

As a general observation, two-man scumteam vs. SK is really, really harsh on the scum if you give the SK NK-immunity. I've been in the situation before on the scum side and it's infuriating because you find yourself in a situation very early on where a win is almost impossible. Not that it influenced this game much, just something to keep in mind.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD there was a claimed and confirmed cop and he had a working bulletproof still

But no way to tell if his bulletproof was used up the night before.

[CrashTextDummie]

I felt like my play outside setup spec was solidly protown.

A lot of people played very solidly for the town, actually almost everyone. Setup spec killed it for us.

[CrashTextDummie]

ABR shouldn't have been lynched. SleepyKrew had played very protown. That lynch really pissed me off. I think I'm getting progressively stubborn and opposed to lynching townreads rather than letting nolynch happen.

ABR lynch was largely a result of town indecisiveness and the resulting deadline scramble. I think this is a common town weakness in today's metagame, and your style of play is pretty conductive to that. :p

With more time, maybe a Plum lynch could have been swung (giving Spyrex 3 mislynches to overcome without the town catching on).

CTD, excellent case on me. I did my best with it, but you were right in saying that the response was no more than a competent scum could whip up, and it was basically correct for scumminess on many counts.

Thanks! I thought I was scumhunting pretty well in general and I've actually used a new (to me) scumhunting technique I picked up and adapted from Llamarble to figure you out, which was basically to assess posts based on how hard they'd be to fake for scum and you came out looking the worst by a wide margin. You are a type of player I've always struggled reading in the past, so I'm very pleased it worked out. My case on you was probably good because I made it after I had already decided you were scum for those completely unrelated reasons, cutting out a lot of the guesswork that usually goes into a case and keeping it to the point and free from bloat (as a bonus, it also kept me from starting to trade quote-walls with you, as I am usually wont to do). Something to keep in mind for future games.

[CrashTextDummie]

We were beaten by the setup, fair and square.

I disagree. You can't derp your way to a win as SK against a town this strong. Spyrex scumhunted really well, managed to thwart the early suspicion on himself and overall played a very clean game. He was most certainly up to the task and earned this win fully in spite of setup gripes.

It's also not right to blame this loss on set-up spec. We were in a situation with 5 townies looking very town and an SK looking equally town. What's a town supposed to do if not speculate on the set-up? Keep in mind that the only way we can catch Spyrex in this situation

is

set-up spec! It's not the godfather spec that sunk us, it's the lack of 2-scum spec. I saw Slaxx do just that in the dead QT, so it was pretty clearly a case of town collectively misjudging gamestate.

Ultimately, this was a game where the majority of players did really well. And when two factions play really well (Spyrex and the town in this case), it comes down to subtleties, like the ABR lynch (it's highly unusual for a D2 mislynch to have such far reaching consequences). It also goes without saying that losing after doing well stings, but sometimes that's just the way the cards fall.

This game was a blast.

[CrashTextDummie]

Don't beat yourself up, Grim. Despite my phases of stink-eye on you, I thought you played a really pro-town game for the majority of the game. As you can tell from my PM to Pitoli, I had you pegged as likely vanilla and less likely scum than Garmr/Fferylt going into the night of your death.

The ABR lynch was a failure the town as a whole was responsible for. At least you took the initiative. If you want to improve your game, I suggest you analyze my case against Plum and her response to it, as well as the post by Empire that bamboozled you, as instances of play that are really quite easy for scum to fabricate.

[CrashTextDummie]

Besides, you managed to soak up a scum kill.