Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[Clumsy]

I thought I posted this earlier but I guess I didn't hit submit?


It's definitely weird coming into a game like this. None of us three are even originals in this game. I've been trying to push through these 60 pages, but it's a little daunting, and the game not even being in my hands is a little demotivating. I'll try to keep going next chance I get though.

[mhsmith0]

The whole thing is hilarious. My performance has been a total mix of good and terrible

Win or lose... I'd rather win. Convince me that my path to victory is with you,

[mhsmith0]

Ps I'm actually a bit busy currently, probably won't have time for another full read through until tonight at earliest. But it's a great chance to get in thread where you think a case can be made for your towninss or a50's wolfiness (and vice versa for him).

[Clumsy]

a50 is a furry bird. Closer to a wolf than Doomguy. Therefore, a50=scum.

Nah but seriously, yeah I'll try to pick through and come up with something when I can.

[mhsmith0]

A50: please give me a few links to games where you subbed in, preferably at least one as town and one as wolf. Not ASAP but this WILL be coming up on D4.

Unfortunately that would be IMPOSSIBLE. I've only subbed in in 3 games (including this game), and I've never subbed in as scum. On one I've subbed in early enough (D1) so it's on my list (on my wiki page.. I think it's #7.. the one modded by pisskop). The other I subbed in during N2 and I only posted ONCE to place the hammer on the last scum, so I don't even have it on the list.

I only sub-in when I'm board (not much going on on ongoing games or I'm waiting on queues for new games to start) and I never sub-out either.

If you want the final word here: TAKE IT ON FAITH. Just lynch YA on D4 and see how it goes. From there on I promise you will be able to tell whether you can trust me for the next 100 games or never again. I will repeat this part: you will KNOW whether you can trust me on ANY GIVEN GAME we ever get to play together from now on, or to NOT trust me ever again.

Why would this impact my ability to trust you? If you're a wolf here then you could be town next time, and if you're town here you could be a wolf next time.

[Almost50]

Oh, nvm that part by now.

[mhsmith0]

Oh, nvm that part by now.

So basically it's a failed AtE? Good to know, that makes things a bit easier on my end

[Almost50]

Try again! (Or don't!! Lest you get us both banned )

[mhsmith0]

Just to make sure, I'm thinking at this point that I'm just going to be the game solver and you guys would rather not dig through the game and really figure that out. Is that right? If not let me know. If so I'll vote some time this weekend.

[Clumsy]

The issue is, we both already know which is town and which is scum. Our contributions at this point are going to be nothing but mudslinging to try to win.

"He did this thing here!"
"Well you did this thing!"
"Your predecessor was scummy as hell!"
"So was yours!!"

It could be useful to try to dig through this game, but ultimately, we're not super likely to find anything that hasn't already been seen/discussed already, and we'd each just be looking for whatever to get the win. :/

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I kinda figured that'd be the case. It's good practice though. Clumsy, Iirc you're new and have yet to flip wolf. Arguing a case when you already know the answer will be helpful for when you have to bs your way through a whole game as wolf.

I mean, right now you're essentially both wolves, and neither of you has much practice at wolfing (I think), so I'd say it's a fun opportunity to learn and grow. I'll probably vote tomorrow night, so it's a potentially tight deadline.

Ps the key here is kaag. Both of your slots did Wolfy things. Who did kaag implicate the most, and whose slot interacted the Wolfy-est with kaag. Focus your analysis there. Kaag was plausibly distancing egg, and was plausibly null zoning and white knighting YA. Which seems more suspicious? And why?

[Almost50]

I think your best chance is ti simply toss a coin and however it lands you vote Clumsy!

[Clumsy]

I actually have been scum twice on this forum so far (2 games already finished). I was supposed to go to the Ren fair today, but I'm feeling sick and stayed home. I'll try to read through some today.

Smith, what time zone are you in? Your posts always come at weird times.

[mhsmith0]

I'm on pacific time right now. A good % of my free time is evenings and weekends though.

[mhsmith0]

Various notable posts from the game (I've been working on it on and off for a while now):

25Ryu: "my UTL vote was sort of RVS, sort of not"
77KAAG: distance-y post on Ryu
92Ryu: "KAAG really knows what he's doing"
98KAAG: YA in null zone, Ryu in distancing range
110YA: "I think trying to infer alignment ("make reads", if you will) on day one in this format is an absurdity"
173YA: town reading KAAG, with plausibly distancing comments
179KAAG: open to Ryu lynch, prefers a different one, pushing YA up towards town
195(and surrounding): YA non-commital about what he wants to do, "gut read" of KAAG as plausible wolf
224Egg: shade and vote on YA, " looks like he isn't very much talking about this game as opposed to mafia games overall", shade on HBG due to absenteeism
275Egg: possible role fishing in guise of "I'm a newb" and "game theory" question
282YA: more of a scum read on UTL and Egg... but also shows actual thought. This was less crappy than I thought at the time.
300KAAG: defending Egg, missing the point of what I meant wrt Egg forgetting Summer. likes YA's 282.
350YA: "I'm clueless newbie mislynch bait"
352YA challenging Egg's lack of heft behind wolf read/vote
353KAAG: mild chainsaw defense of Egg
365KAAG: moving YA to fence!town, "I have no issue with voting for Eggman" (right after calling Egg votes weak)
368YA: aggressive on Egg. towny-looking post.
371Egg: abandons YA vote. Continues in non-vote pattern for rest of D1. Super early VT claim.
373KAAG: throws shade on Egg, but also advances argument that it's just a "policy lynch" to vote on Egg
383Egg: prepping for a UTL vote
389YA: "can't imagine any scum player ever doing that" (on Egg)... still voting him though
445KAAG: defends the idea of an Egg lynch for information. notes YA as a town read
478YA: admits error.
484KAAG: willing to hammer Egg. The note possibly was an attempt to undermine the lynch effort.
498YA: angry over Thor's "hammer" of Egg
501Shannon: "I have a feeling that Egg/Ryu's performance is a result of lack of coaching or understanding. Which means if he's scum, he's not getting good advice through daytalk" - very much argues against KAAG as partner of Egg
548YA: "You seem to think that the fact that there was already sufficient backing for an Eggman lynch means that you hammering it would have made no further difference. This is simply not the case. Hammering early simply commits us to a course of action earlier - we aren't compensated for our reduced options in any meaningful sense. We can leave someone alive and use all of our time until the deadline with no consequences."
565KAAG: town reading YA, wants YA's biggest enemy lynched
614YA: hammers, citing "Thor's points about not dragging matters out are also plenty valid"
626YA: "Our IC laid out the case for doing this literally within the last 48 hours"
645YA: "All I can really say in my defence is that if I were scum I wouldn't play as if I had a death wish"
674Ircher: "If Radja is town, YA is guaranteed scum"
706KAAG: defending YA, but open to the idea of lynching him
711YA: "My guess is that scum liked the fact the game had a lot of inactivity and thought that Thor's style and aggression were likely to crack the game open. The obvious implication from this is that the status quo (I.E. who we suspect and are likely to lynch in the immediate future) suits the scum pretty well."
718 through 724KAAG: trying to make it clear that Thor read Ircher as wolfier than YA
731YA: attacking shannon's attack on KAAG
764KAAG: bringing back the YA discussion
766KAAG: "if you are scum and it was a blatant lie, what the hell was your partner doing?" (STRONGLY distancing himself from the idea of being YA's partner)
770YA: selling idea of a Egg/KAAG team
777YA: showing townie paranoia wrt SIW/MHS. wrt Egg, "No, I think he's just so worthless as a player and looked so likely to cop a lynch yesterday that I find it utterly implausible that he's survived without someone going to bat for him"
778KAAG: Egg case is essentially "policy lynch"
787Egg: "I propose that we lynch me on Day 3"... while voting for a player under suspicion (Ircher)
792Egg: "...I thought you guys would be more inclined to vote Ircher." (after proposing a self lynch)
848YA: pretty aggressively campaigning for the Egg lynch - why would he care so much if he knew it was a town-town battle?
893KAAG: pushes Egg to vote for YA
980YA: "I find the notion that Eggman is following direction from a scumbuddy utterly implausible."
996KAAG: "So who knows if he's even looking at the scum topic (if he's scum)? Let alone reading it or interacting. So I exclude nobody."
998KAAG: pushing YA against the Egg wagon
1108Egg: calls the RB "We can also confirm that there's no Hooker."... which is an interesting term for it (I've seen it called that way before)
"Who among us is most likely to be the BP? I'm gonna say Smith." (which may explain why no one ever shot at me)
1122Egg: definitely has a wolf read on KAAG, which is odd because he's not voting KAAG or pushing KAAG. Looks more distancing than anything else tbh.
…
1331, 1335A50: questions KAAG about town reading me… but doesn’t bother to consider this as potentially suspicious on KAAG’s part
1336A50: sees KAAG giving terrible advice, ALSO does not bother to consider this as plausibly AI
1429, 1435, 1443, 1499, various AtE stuff by A50



Thor's posts (most relevant because Thor was the ONLY player where wolf team made an active choice to kill him, as opposed to the [in retrospect] obvious PR kill of shannon )
505Thor: KAAG "appeared otherwise okay with just rolling over and lynching Eggman"
520called out YA's hypocrisy in voting for a "weak lynch"
525called out YA's behavior as nonsense
552attacked YA for "empty attacking" him
657..."In other news, I do find it awflly impressive that I was able to change Yawning Angel's position from "burn it with fire!" on a fake lulzhammer to "don't even need a claim!" for a real hammer."
684"I know you read my discussions about proper play Day 1 - no where in there did I remotely suggest a hammer without a claim was a good idea.
So...if you don't think I'd lie to the point of wanting to leap ahead with a shorter day, why did you overlook the, y'know, other thoughts I had about how to do it?"

KAAG's self-hammer: there's always WIFOM here... but why would he self-hammer with A50 as his partner? With YA not around, and two townies on KAAG, KAAG was a goner, and there was very clearly a path for A50 to eventually be convinced (or "convinced"). The problem is, it's heavily WIFOM, AND he may have simply felt that A50 could not "naturally" move away from his YA vote.


So here’s where I am. It’s plausible that it’s a KAAG-YA team, but I think the game state MORE suits a KAAG-Egg team. KAAG has kept Egg in the suspicious zone, but never quite at the point where he’d actually vote. The whole thing feels like he’s preparing for a potential Egg flip, and trying to make sure his position is survivable if/when that happens.

This also does a pretty good job of explaining what happened wrt YA on day 2. KAAG wants us thinking about what happened wrt the hammer, but when it doesn’t take (and people aren’t even really interested in chatting about it), he’s OK with letting it drop. That falls within a KAAG-YA team, potentially, but I think if they were a team he’d actually want that conversation resolved in a more meaningful way to protect against a flip.

Moreover, it’d be weird for him to be pushy to defend his buddy in that situation. If YA went down, it’d look really suspicious for KAAG to be YA’s defender there. So it looks more like a KAAG-Egg team, where Ircher became a perfectly acceptable substitute for YA in the “day 2 mislynch” category, as opposed to a KAAG-YA team, where essentially just walking away from that read really made sense.

And as far as A50 goes... hard defending his buddy by pushing against me actually makes a lot of sense. Overwhelm and confuse the town, force a ML to end the game (since on careful review, Egg looks as or more wolfy than YA). Or to give an example from a different game...
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 20#p489036

Niakan is pulling exactly the same trick he tried in Crunkus's recent game when he comes in at day end to try and make the town his bitch. Creating an environment of panic and confusion after lurking for the rest of the game day. How is that trick still working? Lynch the bastard.

Also, there's basically an army of townies who've been screaming to hang the Egg/A50 slot. And... I can't really argue with them. It clearly COULD be YA, but YA has had townie looking moments at times, and Egg really does look like lurker wolf the more that I think about it. I look at Ryu/Egg/A50, and absolutely nothing A50 has done looks town at all.


So rather than waste everyone’s time even more, I’m just going to vote. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Hopefully I’m right (I really hate being wrong).
VOTE: Almost50

PS Whether I'm right or wrong, good game and well played everyone. I’ll be happy to play with you guys again.

[mhsmith0]

Well, game is over and hammer is down.

Was I right? PLEASE let me be right *nervous*

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 4.Final

Clumsy (1) - Almost50
mhsmith0 (0) -
Almost50 (2) - Clumsy, mhsmith0

Not Voting:

With 3 alive, it's 2 to lynch.

As of Post #1514, Almost50 was lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

mhsmith0,

Vanilla Townie

is endgamed.

Clumsy,

Mafia Goon

, survives.

The Mafia team of Clumsy and KickAssAndGiggle win!

Scum PT: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=65663
Dead PT: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=65664

Night Actions:

shannon (Tracker): Ircher (went nowhere)
SIW (Doctor) protect mhsmith0

Mafia (KAAG) Kill Thor (succeeds)

shannon (Tracker): YawningAngel (visited shannon)
SIW (Doctor) protect mhsmith0

Mafia (YawningAngel) Kill shannon (succeeds)

SIW (Doctor) protect mhsmith0

Mafia (clumsy) Kill SIW (succeeds)

[mhsmith0]

Well, shit. Sorry town. I suck

[Jackal711]

Thanks everyone for playing, and dealing with the annoyingly high number of replacements.

[Ircher]

[Ircher]

Wait, Shannon tracked me N1 yet still was ok with my lynch? Shannon -- While the tracker doesn't clear me, it should make you think twice about lynching me.

[mhsmith0]

I did my best, wasn't good enough. Super frustrating. One slot was a wolf (I've tended to use that terminology rather than scum across games, someone convinced me it was better, I forget why), and the other mislynch bait. Live and learn I guess. I really drove the town off the cliff in this game. Well played KAAG/YA.

[Ircher]

You had it D3... While its not all Almost50's fault, that tunnel after replacing really changed this from possible town win to unlikely town win.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, I was looking at that and figuring that it simply didn't make any sense at all as a town play, but made a decent amount of sense as a "oh crap I need to protect the deep wolf" type play. And then I re-read, and re-read, and re-read... and couldn't actually see anything from the Ryu/Egg/A50 to make me think town, while there were spots here and there that YA looked town. Also those links to prior YA games, he'd just massively lurked as mafia and this game just didn't look that same at all.

[mhsmith0]

PS @UTL: I really am sorry about being a jerk about that situation, FWIW.