Micro 624: Grey Flag Nightless (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

Hi friends!

VOTE: rachmarie

[Hoopla]

thank you!

hopefully you are town and i don't have to lynch you.

[Hoopla]

rb, you need to respect my small-talk flavour.

[Hoopla]

i don't see the purpose in trying to force ourselves out of rvs with frivolous accusations. why can't we all be chill and have a laugh before we go about killing each other?

who would like to hear a joke?

[Hoopla]

sometimes...

[Hoopla]

that was an extremely unchill call out, javajoe

[Hoopla]

all good my friend. you seem like a nice fella, so i can't be too angry at you

ANYWAY

UNVOTE:
VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Hoopla]

nothing yet.

just wanted to make the vote spread clumpier rather than spread out.

[Hoopla]

I'd rather weed out anyone who derphammers on day 1 instead of giving them a free ride until LYLO.

that seems like really strange logic, particularly when a townie is just as likely to derp hammer as a scumbag. if a townie does it, we've just ruined D1 and D2.

unless you think speedhammers like that are usually scum?

[Hoopla]

It's best for me to be quiet if I'm at L-1 this early in the game. I'm watching the people on my wagon and I don't want to make too much noise cause interference. I think it's pretty obvious here that the wagon on me isn't because I'm scum, there's other things going on, and I'm chilling to see how it develops. I guarantee you that all four people on my wagon DO NOT have a conductive reason for voting and that's where things'll get interesting.

i'm actually genuinely curious what you think about those on your wagon. if you are town, who is the most suspicious proponent of your wagon?

[Hoopla]

as for my opinion on the L-1 wagon. in game's like this with a high concentration of scum, it is typically rarer to the see the first L-1 wagon of the game to actually land on scum, because unless scum is actively (and by actively, i mean legitimately going out of their way) to bus early, it's simply far easier for votes to clump on townies as opposed to scum who have internal resistance to drop a L-3, L-2 or L-1 vote on a buddy at the start of D1. scum on townies, however, have no internal resistance to place these votes early, so naturally townies will end up on L-1 far more often than random.

this tell is less valuable the more information the game has, as wagons can be built on the basis of analysis or a good case, but at the moment, there is little to go on and any vote can be justified easily, so this pattern will be valid. it seems very likely to me that rosske is town, and i think his L-1 reactions have been null to town.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Did you miss my question?

I didn't miss it... it just didn't seem like it warranted an answer. I'll catch the scums in due time.

[Hoopla]

I liked Rach's data dump in 163 even if all the data wasn't totally convincing and the sort of hammers karnos was talking about. I think Rach comes off as quite town, and along with rosske, I wouldn't want to lynch either of them today.

karnos' logic for wanting to see if we have "town that dumb to hammer" is just strange -- if anything, I steer in the other direction and want to avoid situations during day phases where townies have opportunities to make bad plays. I don't know his alignment yet, but felt like mentioning this.

In other news, I'm sure there's at least one or two scum on rosske's wagon though and think that is a good area to investigate.

[Hoopla]

Why do you think Rosske is town?

Because of the way the wagon formed on him -- it's far more likely that a townie is the recipient of such a speedy, early wagon. But I've already explained that.

Why aren't you investigating it then?

I mean, I'm voting for you and not disrupting the karnos wagon. TNE's posts seem okay, but that's really only a gut read at the moment.

[Hoopla]

I don't really agree with any of karnos' reads.

Joe's play is aligning with the typical model of D1 play I see from scum a lot, and Rach is pretty town. I haven't really checked out rb that much, but from PoE, he is scummyish as I have a few good town reads.

[Hoopla]

Just chiming in to say that both of you are actually helping me in my game solving attempts as I rule out a GuiltyLion/rb scumteam. This will be very useful if one of you flips scum.

ANYWAY, carry on!

[Hoopla]

Do townies usually have friends who quickly come out to defending them as soon as the wagon gets to L-1? It can happen when the town is a mason, or it can happen when the town is actually a scum with scum partners, but I don't often see it happen for vanilla townies.

I defend people who I think are town (for the most part I'm better at town-hunting), and I think it's highly likely that Rosske is town based on his wagon. I also think Rach is town and rb looks town-ish (especially if you're scum).

I'm actually going to signal my intent to hammer.

This looks like a pretty town-driven wagon and I have town reads on a bunch of other players not-karnos, so from process of elimination, I think he has a good chance of being scum. I also think regardless of what he flips, he's a highly informative lynch, which isn't always true of all D1 lynches.

karnos, any last words before I do this?

[Hoopla]

Eh, I don't really want to lynch karnos now. I think this kinda last minute rallying to say what he wants to say about the game before he dies is town.

I'd rather vote someone else on the original rosske wagon, so I'm staying on GuiltyLion.

[Hoopla]

i think the entire scumteam is within guiltylion, javajoe, rb, franky, thenewearth.

on isolation, franky and javajoe most closely resemble the model of d1 scum i often see. but really, i am willing to lynch any of the above five.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: franky

[Hoopla]

I told you its gonna be one of those weird games that if either flips scum, the other would look scummier

that really seems unlikely to me. why do you think this is in the ballpark of reasonable possibilities?

[Hoopla]

yo, thenewearth. answer my #275.

[Hoopla]

Hey friends! Been having an unexpectedly busy weekend, so I'll post something more substantial soon. It seems like we need a flip to rekindle this game's fire, so I think it's time people starting compromising and voting secondary reads that are possible lynches.

My lynch pool is still the same: rb, GuiltyLion, Franky, thenewearth and javajoe. I would like to request everyone in their next post to share their list of who they're willing to lynch. Thanks!

[Hoopla]

why such a big list there hoopla?

it's not a big list when i think the entire scumteam is within it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: thenewearth

i think i'll help this wagon out while infinity gets into the game.

[Hoopla]

why such a big list there hoopla?

Also, you don't really get to question my list when you have no vote on anyone three days from deadline.

Same goes for javajoe. Time to start compromising.

[Hoopla]

Hi guys, I read the game before I replaced in. Here's what I got:

rach - Pushes her scumread karnos with a lot of conviction, seems to be trying to figure the game out. Town.
hoopla - Doesn't seem to be very careful and I liked her entrance, but I don't really like how she has been on the sidelines. Null.
TNE - Doesn't care about what people think of her, not trying to look town. Town.
Rosske - seems to be pushing on the easy target TNE, while not doing much else. Null leaning scum.
rb - takes strong stances and not afraid to get into arguments. Town.
java - I like his analysis, but not a ton of original scumhunting here. Null.
GuiltyLion - Putting in a lot of effort to try and solve the game, picking on things that wouldn't make sense for scum to pick on. Strong town.
karnos - Takes strong stances and plays very differently from Mini 1800. Town

VOTE: rosske back to L-1

how do you have five town reads and only one scumread?

[Hoopla]

idk what it is, I always seem to have a lot of townreads

I want you to explain your tne vote when I don't really see reasoning for it and you didn't comment on my townread on her

honestly, she's probably the most likely to be town on my cool-to-lynch list, but none of my other targets are really getting any traction. it seems like most people are still on the rosske train, but my reasoning for him being town is abstract, and i don't think many people share my opinions about what early wagons like that usually mean.

[Hoopla]

Also, why not comment on the fact that my vote was clearly not a compromise when you just said it was time to compromise

you voted after i made that declaration, so i assume you're being prickly just for the sake of being prickly.

[Hoopla]

Your reasoning is interesting, but I'm not convinced the wagon isn't all-town/that scum wouldn't bus on an RVS wagon.

Do you think karnos is town for the same reasons?

I've been doing research into the frequency of early L-1 wagons hitting scum, and although I don't have enough data yet, it seems obvious to me that way more townies than random are being propelled into L-1/L-2 territory early. At the start of the game, pretty much any vote on any player in the game can be justified without any real scrutiny, so when a townie "slips up" or the town just want to wagon for the sake of wagoning, there are a silent group of players happy to jump on townie mistakes/wagons and less willing to do so on their buddies. The votes tend to clump on townies more often than on scum unless scum go out of their way to actively bus when they don't have to -- and yes, this can happen, but it's far less likely early when any other vote can be justified (and even less likely again for scum to put a partner on L-2 or L-1).

This tell is more salient the less information there is the game, as once the game develops, actual reads and cases can be made and occasionally town stumbles onto something meaningful that enough townies can get behind or that at least looks meaningful enough to scare scum into bussing.

Just look at this early wagon:

Rosske (4):

thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion, karnos

It just seems so unlikely to me that Rosske is scum. If he was scum, then I'd expect all these people to be town or at best, one scum here. So lets see who works as scum in a hypothetical Rosske-scum universe:

I don't think karnos puts his scumpartner to L-1 (especially without announcing it). Guiltylion and thenewearth share a chain of posts promoting everyone to vote Rosske when he's already on L-2. His wagon sat on L-1 for a while with nobody flinching -- rb had a long interrogation of karnos about derphammers and could have easily have found his way off the wagon if he was bussing Rosske early.

In my mind, if Rosske is scum, rb is the only viable candidate for a bussing partner OR somehow all those four are town. Occam's Razor suggests it's far more likely that Rosske is town -- there are just so many other possible combinations of alignments on that wagon if you have Rosske as town. For the most part, everyone was happy just chilling on the L-1 wagon and not showing any signs of wavering or even bothering to mention him being on L-1. It took Rach to mention that later. To me that implies Rosske is town and scum are just golden with what's happening.

On the off chance of Rosske being scum, you (Franky/Infinity) actually looks the most likely scum, who barely mentioned the Rosske wagon when it was going on but was throwing suspicion elsewhere. That's a classic chainsaw defense and seems incredibly scummy if Rosske is scum.

TO ANYONE ON THE ROSSKE WAGON WHO AGREES WITH THAT LOGIC: how about a friendly compromise and lynching Franky/Infinity, the obv-partner of hypothetical Rosske-scum?

~~

I just realised I wrote that entire post without actually directly answering your question. I think karnos has a better chance of being scum than Rosske because he legitimately did something that could be construed as scummy (though I personally think it's more null). It takes an element of luck to get a big enough group of townies correctly thinking the same thing is scummy -- and his L-1 vote is a more likely catalyst for this than whatever randomness triggered the wagon on Rosske.

I still think the karnos wagon was too easy, and in a game with a higher ratio of scum than usual, I think that tell is meaningful.

[Hoopla]

thenewearth, guiltylion, rb:

I want you to read that post and tell me who Rosske's likely partners are if he's scum. Do you think it's likely this wagon was somehow all town? If not, who's bussing? Who's scum off the wagon? Do you agree with me that Franky/Infinity is the most likely scum off the wagon?

[Hoopla]

Infinity's slot makes sense as scum from either flip hence why I'm trying to rally a lynch there. Looking at potential partners in a game this small is absolutely viable, because it can help you realise that the person to be lynched makes more sense as town.

The voters off the original Rosske wagon are me, rach, javajoe, franky. So who's the two scum there? If you believe Rosske to be bussed, by who?

Edit: phone posting at the moment so I'm slow. There's no way rosske/karnos is viable.

[Hoopla]

I'll be looking at more interactions when i arrive home later, but I'd say i favour an infinity lynch over tne. Just waiting for some support.

[Hoopla]

Tbh I'm starting to wonder why you want to lynch TNE if you think Rosske is town because I find it hard to believe that TNE is TNE scum vs. Rosske town interaction. It's either Rosske scum or Town vs. Town. Imo if Rosske flips town it's super unlikely she's scum, and there's probably scum off-wagon and/or in GL + Karnos.

TNE absolutely makes sense if she's scum and Rosske is town -- anyone on Rosske's wagon can fit as scum if he's town, hence why I believe it's more likely he is indeed town, as for Rosske to be scum, that whole posse voting him needs to be all town (extremely unlikely), or someone is bussing, and I really think only you are a viable choice. There's way more combinations of alignments possible when you have Rosske as town.

As an aside, I'm starting to believe TNE is the most town out my lynch pool, mostly on the back her lol-oh-wait-there-are-actually-3-mafia post. I don't see mafia dropping blatantly obvious town tells like that very often. Most of the time, mafia tend to play in as a truthful as possible, as a way to imitate town sincerity. It's more rare to see mafia lie in this manner. Again, another occam's razor: more likely that post comes from town actually forgetting, then scum going out of their way to obfuscate.

~~

I don't really get it tbh, because the Franky/Infinity slot was inactive up until all of 10 hours ago and Franky's replace was consistent site-wide. I think we're talking past each other because I said that if Rosske flips Town I think there's scum in GL/Karnos or off his wagon. I don't really see how Karnos isn't a viable scumbuddy of Rosske. Based on what Karnos has said, it's viable imo. I mean maybe it's not normal or expected for scum to bus partners the way Karnos has, but karnos has said:

- he's never seen a derphammer based on unannounced L-1 this early in-game
- only scum would derphammer
- anyone who derphammers should be policy lynch

If Karnos + Rosske are scum, and Karnos really thinks it's basically impossible for someone to derphammer Rosske here unless they themselves are scum, it's actually easy for Karnos to just assume that he can bus here and it's not going to get his buddy lynched, while simultaneously putting them in strong position to win the game because the immediate conclusion is that Karnos + Rosske scum is impossible. Scumreads for me are Rosske/GL/Karnos.

Apologies if I were talking past you -- I actually don't know if I was as I was phone posting, but it seems like we've got a lot of different branches of conversation happening here.

A question for you. Why are you so open to keeping a Karnos/Rosske combination as a realistic possibility alive, when earlier in the game you posted this:

Tbh I like 146 and 147 from rosske.

VOTE: karnos

Don't like this guy though. And me not liking him makes me not like rosske's wagon.

Would you say your opinion on the Rosske wagon or Rosske/karnos as a combination has changed since this post?

[Hoopla]

Upon reviewing the day's play, I am actually more okay with karnos as possible scum again. I signaled intent to hammer him at one point since his wagon looked townish and his last words swayed me. Although, now that I'm PoE'ing the game a bit more, I think others have better reasons for being more town than him. Here's his wagon:

karnos (4):

Javajoe24, RachMarie, rb, Rosske

There are two prob-townies on there in Rach and Rosske, and if either of javajoe or rb are scum, I think these votes are more likely bussing votes than any of the votes placed on Rosske. I also think there is an okay-ish chance that whole wagon is town, which is something that I cannot say for the Rosske wagon. There was also a more legitimate reason (his unannounced L-1 vote) for townies to get lucky and find scum on.

~~

I also am giving up on my defense for Rosske town. It seems as if nobody in the town shares my views and I haven't been able to convince anyone of my position. I'm still confident he is town, but since nobody is budging and we are very close to deadline, I'm not going to keep screaming into the void for the sake of my own ego. I have said my piece and unless someone surprises me and wants to get a counterwagon going somewhere, I'm going unvote tne and place a symbolic vote on Infinity, who I think works the best in the most possible teams based on Rosske's flip.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Infinity

Updated pool based on more reading: Infinity, rb, Guiltylion, javajoe, karnos

[Hoopla]

Wow ok that looks like a genuine townslip.

The setup is 6v3 town wins if 2 scum are lynched, no night unless scum is lynched.

Yep, Rach and TNE get to be town. Rach's slip looks more genuine than tne's, but I believe them both.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, do you have any reads so far based on play?

I have some reads based on behavioral tells -- this page I've cleared Rach and TNE based on one. I also spared karnos' life based on a gut instinct, although I'm less sure about that instinct now that the game is narrowing down. I have had more gut instincts about some people's behaviors and posts, but things still have to add up from a broader perspective rather than on isolated tells alone.

Inactivity due to flaking is one thing

Inactivity due to coasting is another

So lets not

I'm not suspicious of Infinity's slot for inactivity if that post was directed at me. It is a process of elimination read based on my other town reads and wagon analysis. I think most people aren't looking for potential scum combos yet like me, so I'll wait until we have a flip before I push this angle more.

[Hoopla]

^i'm on infinity now mod

gotta make sure i'm representing in case someone hears my cries

Fixed — callforjudgement

[Hoopla]

Do you have behavior-based reads on people other than those 3, even gut ones?

Why do you say you "cleared" rach and TNE?

Are wagon analysis and gut normally your main scumhunting tools early on?

As far as I'm concerned, Rach and tne's slips are as close as we're going to get to confirmed town in this game, and I find these sorts of town slips far more reliable than most things in the game. For the most part scum are just trying to not look like scum, but they don't often attempt fake town slips like this to try and look town -- it's a very creative lie, and scum are usually more concerned with blending in.

For a similar reason, I often find towntells much more reliable on D1 than scumtells, as scum have been conditioned to avoid doing scummy things, while townies will often be all over the place, and many things they do can be construed as scummy/antitown. A related point; last time I checked, town's D1 lynch rate of scum was essentially random -- collectively, we aren't very good at catching scum based on behavioural tells, which is what people primarily use on D1.

I find studying the composition of wagons, trying to clear probtownies and process-of-eliminating combinations of teams more useful, especially in a game this size and with such a high ratio of scum. I use behavioural tells too, but I still tend to filter it through the game as a whole -- for example; I think rb/karnos is a less likely combination based on their protracted argument about derphammering and whatnot. I just don't see scum getting in such arguments with each other very often, especially on D1. Scumpartners tend to ask questions or point out scummy things they do, rather than getting in these types of back-and-forths.

^That tell (and a couple other things) will be very useful when I look at the different combinations of players someone can be scum with. Sometimes a player doesn't make sense as scum in many teams, even though looking at that player in isolation they do. And sometimes a player works as scum with a lot of different people, which can make them a good lynch. My defense of Rosske hinges on a similar probabilistic sentiment -- he doesn't work as scum with many players.

[Hoopla]

@) rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity, karnos, javajoe

Top 2 scumreads in your next post please.

[Hoopla]

also I haven't brought this up yet but I don't like the easy townreads on TNE and Rach for their "slips" - I expect town to understand the rules of the game and I think faking a lack of knowledge is well within anyone competent's scum toolbox. Individually I think both of their play has looked fine but I'm definitely going to re-evaluate how people were throwing down those townreads in a bit.

The tne and Rach slips are the most informative thing that has happened all game, to the point, where I'm willing to put the game on the line based on those reads: to a certain extent we do have to place faith in those that are town around us, since there are fewer townies than normal.

With that in mind, and the fact we only need to lynch two scum to win, I'm going to try and work out who works in the most scumteams from the scumpool of rb,karnos, guiltylion, javajoe and infinity:

As I mentioned late yesterday, I found karnos/rb's back-and-forth unlikely to be a scum dialogue and that feeling hasn't changed today. If they are scum together, I'd rule out GuiltyLion as a third team member, as I really don't think scum are brazen enough to all barrel onto the first wagon out the gate together:

Rosske

(4):

thenewearth

, rb, GuiltyLion, karnos

In all my time collecting data on D1 wagons, it's exceedingly rare that all scum pile onto a wagon in a row -- in fact I can't remember a game where I've ever seen it. This isn't an overly important point, but it rules out one combination of a rb/karnos team, adding a layer to the rb/karnos aren't both scum theory.

Of the two, I prefer rb as scum because I find his suspicion of me today suspicious when he commented on me making a lot of sense during D1, and for the most part he seems to be a pretty logical minded player. I find it unrealistic that he doesn't consider viewing the game from the perspective of town!Hoopla AT ALL as town and would be more unsure about my alignment, even if he was paranoid about me. I am fully aware that my play is unusual and most people don't defend town reads so much, but as one of the players who I perceive as the most perceptive in the game, it's alarming to me that he's suddenly not considering my opinions as potentially clued in and on the right track, particularly after how we saw Rosske's wagon go and particularly because he said I made sense D1 and shared a lot of my reads. To me, he makes more sense as scum taking advantage of the game situation rather than town trying to discern my alignment. Comments like this about the Rosske wagon...

Tbh I like 146 and 147 from rosske.

VOTE: VOTE: karnos

Don't like this guy though. And me not liking him makes me not like rosske's wagon.

...make future movements onto the Rosske wagon look like he is taking advantage of a game situation (something I am sensing about his suspicion on me). I'm still waiting to hear back on when he suddenly started liking the Rosske wagon, especially since his opinion on karnos never wavered.

~~

There is an outside chance of karnos/rb being a town/town combination, which would mean that the scumteam is guiltylion/javajoe/infinity. Not impossible, though there are many more combinations of two scum in GL/joe/Infinity + one of rb/karnos. Regardless, it's the percentage play today to lynch from GL/Joe/Infinity imo as I expect 2 or possibly 3 scum there. Lets have a look at them individually:

Javajoe's

been sitting back and I don't have any convincing reasons to disclude him from any scumteams, and I think he might even be my picking over Infinity instead. A key post I missed on D1 is him greasing the wheel to shape up for a hammer:

You actually have a point here, he is very quiet as if trying to blend in. I still don't like your unannounced L-1 and am keeping my vote on you, but

FoS: rosske

To me, it seems weird and convenient to sheep the opinion of your number 1 scum read and shape up for a hammer on someone they're suspecting. This is scum opportunism, and though these could really be town!joe's thoughts, it looks like a wishy-washy throwaway comment to start shifting suspicion onto Rosske, and I think he'd be more circumspect at believing what his suspect was talking about.

Behaviourally, he has been flying under the radar and has essentially received no suspicion, and in a game where there are such a high concentration of scum, I find this alarming, as his play hasn't exactly been a beacon of towniness. If he were town, I'd expect at least one scum to have considered him suspicious at some point as he doesn't look like a challenging target to go after. It's more likely he is scum being ignored by his buddies as they focus on others.

~~

GuiltyLion

has a lot of interaction with rb/karnos about the whole derphammer thing, and reading through it, I still don't see how all three could possibly be scum, and I don't think GuiltyLion links himself so openly and explicitly with karnos when he says things like:

except my point is that the scum didn't get away, he was lynched the next day. You're conflating "scum" with "scumteam" here.

karnos (and I agree with him)

is saying that derphammering is a policy lynch. No exceptions. All the examples in the world of town/scum derphammering in various games won't change this attitude, and IMO is a distracting discussion from the game we have here.

My additional opinion is that assuming anyone who does an early L-1 vote is scum is a very shallow way of forming reads. While I currently think RachMarie is being genuine with her push here, I don't believe her conclusion is correct.

I just don't see scum coming to the aid of another buddy in a relatively benign and aimless theory conversation. For the most part he sides with karnos against rb, and if he's to be scum with either of these two, I think it's slightly more likely to rb, although they have a decent back-and-forth too and end up cross-distancing. It's a convincing bit of scum theatre if they're both scum, but I find that more believable than GL making an agree post with a buddy when he doesn't really need too.

Having little overlap with our D2 reads doesn't bode well, and I find it suspicious he is trying to bring Rach/TNE back into the possible lynch-pool, but his convincing interactions with rb and karnos is a point in his favour, I feel.

~~

The

Franky/Infinity

slot has primarily been a process-of-elimination read, which I find is the most accurate way to catch lurking scum. When you have too many town reads or can rule out too many possible scumteams and combinations, it increases the likelihood of catching scum in these slots with minimal risk. I find there to be an okay chance of two town in rb/GL/karnos, which would pretty much lock in Infinity/javajoe as a scumpair.

If they are indeed a scumpair, I think the game makes the most sense with rb or GL as their partner, as I got the distinct impression on D1 scum were under little to no pressure at all and occupied the lurking/flying under the radar spots or someone not considered as a lynch. Scum like javajoe can happily park his vote on wagons like karnos, and fly under the radar when there is no immediate pressure of any of your team being lynched.

Infinity's posting has been okay and I think he's displayed some genuine curiosity at times, which is more than I can say about javajoe and his under the radar play.

~~

So, with that all said, I think javajoe is the best chance of being scum today. He fits in the most teams and I haven't really seen anything from him that makes me think otherwise:

VOTE: javajoe

[Hoopla]

Actually I could see hoopla defending rosske for towncred. Hmm

I don't like how she's only using theory and gut to explain her reads, those are the easiest things to fake as scum. But there's nothing definitive that makes her scum...

I still want more from java.

How do you come up with your reads out of curiosity?

[Hoopla]

This is an appeal to Rach and thenewearth:

with such a high ratio of scum in this game, it's imperative that townies stick together and work together well. Hopefully you perceive me as town too and we can get a solid town bloc going to offset the scum manipulation of wagons. I want to see more out of you two so we can put scum under pressure.

[Hoopla]

the thing with posts like 345 is that they're very easy posts for scum to make, as they can convincingly examine the gamestate while still knowing everyone's alignment. My problem with Hoopla is how she basically defined Rosske as town sheerly by looking at the wagon composition

pre-flip

, without diving at all into Rosske's actual play.

VOTE: Hoopla

"Actual play" being code for behavioural tells, right? Why is the fact I favour wagon analysis on D1 (something I believe to be more accurate) suspicious to you?

Do you think I'd only play this way as scum? If not, why are you reading my playstyle as alignment-related as opposed to playstyle-related?

[Hoopla]

I don't like the Rosske town flip and the defence, and I don't think it's as uncommon as you say. Defending "townreads" happens relatively often from scum because it's still a better play than lynching a

As in, a town player attempting to divert a lynch just based on wagon analysis seems insane to me. Maybe it IS playstyle, but I don't know if I can just chalk it up to that.

If you don't know whether it is playstyle or not, then how can you be suspicious of it? Shouldn't it be NAI if you can't determine my motivations? Do you really not ever see townies defend other townies at L-1 when they believe they are town?

[Hoopla]

We disagree on Infinity but whatever, I think we can work it out. I want to know how/which people townreading so hard that you can narrow stuff down. I'm not seeing it this game.

The only people I'm clearing are Rachel and thenewearth based on their town-slips on page 16. Thenewearth's is here:

I have totally fucking forgot there are 3 mafias

Rach's is here:

Wait this is a micro there are THREE scumz? how is that balanced I thought with 9 players it was 2?

And how do you know there are 3, Hoopla?

What do you think about these quotes?

[Hoopla]

Please don't buddy me :/

I'm inclined to vote you, right here, right now

who are your scumreads at the moment?

[Hoopla]

I agree with this post. I have been in several games where scum have faked townslips for town cred.

Care to give me some examples when you have the time? Because I very rarely see it.

[Hoopla]

It's not that I think your playstyle definitively makes you scum, it's just that your playstyle is a very safe one for scum to emulate and I'm not quite convinced that you're uninformed. I read a post like 432 and I can see it coming from either alignment, and that makes me put my guard up. There's just a certain feeling of townie-lack-of-knowledge that is missing from your posts.

I'd argue my playstyle is less safe than a normal player, as I deliberately do things others don't and put myself in the limelight. Just as safe for scum is saying stuff like:

"there's just a certain feeling of townie-lack-of-knowledge that is missing from your posts"

-- that's very easy to say as scum, perhaps easier than the way I have been playing. How easy something for scum to do isn't necessarily indicative of how scummy it is, though -- it's all about whether scum is more likely to do it than town, and when you say stuff like

"I can see X post from either alignment"

-- that is the definition of null and you should consider going after posts that are more likely to come from scum as opposed to posts that can go either way.

Let me ask you this: what do you think of rb's point about me ignoring you D1 and how that could implicate us as scumbuddies? And what's your opinion on infinity's 452?

1) It doesn't concern me because I'm not you. You'll have to field that one.
2) What about Infinity's 452 specifically? The bottom half is a misattributed quote to me and I don't know who actually said it or what he's talking about really. The top half doesn't really say anything except "hmm could Hoopla bus joe"? Why do you want me to comment on this post?

[Hoopla]

I don't see town!hoopla motivation in defending Rosske at L-1, even WITH wagon analysis. Do you often defend people who're playing scummy as shit just because your wagon analysis says they aren't scum? There's some small amount of room for me to wriggle on this one, but I just don't see how this is a town motivated play over a scum one.

I think one of the best ways you can catch scum in this game is by judging the collective towns' reaction to that players' slot. Quite often there will be several players who are

"scummy as shit"

(whatever that means), and for some reason one of them finds themself to L-1 much easier than the others. Many D1's I will not usually have such a strong instinct that a player is town just based on wagon analysis, but the higher ratio of scum:town in this game, the speed of this wagon and the unwavering nature of its participants made it pretty obvious to me he was town. In games where you have a high ratio of scum:town, the composition of the wagon is absolutely critical, because most of the time you'll need scum help to lynch scum. Without it, you need 80%+ of the townies to zero in on the same wavelength, and call me cynic, but when I see everyone retroactively justify Rosske as

"playing scummy as shit"

without considering others, it solidifies in my mind even more how difficult it is to get a group of townies to all be right on something through their own skill/instinct and not luck.

I haven't really been an active player since 2012, but I used to have a history of defending players who I thought were town. VT claims when I expected a PR-fakeclaim from scum was often an illuminating towntell that would inspire a defense from me.

We can disagree and call it "playstyle" but I don't see any reason that you couldn't pull this play as either scum or town, and I think there's a lot more to be gained doing it as scum than town.

I'm used to being extremely difficult to read and expect arguments like that leveled against me regardless of what I do. For that reason, I just hone in on things I find to be actually accurate regardless of how I end up looking.

[Hoopla]

I feel like this argument about my defense of Rosske is getting circular. I think I've said enough in my defense and would rather focus on something else instead.

@ rb: I haven't really seen you talk about javajoe at all. In your suspects post at the start of D2, you listed me/karnos/GL and then later on that page you talked about being willing to lynch javajoe too, but without any real reasoning. What's your take on his play so far? Why is he in your lynch list?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: karnos

I may still go back to Hoopla but I think he's scum in either world of Hoopla's alignment and I'd like to see if anyone will follow me here.

how do you figure?

[Hoopla]

yes, he is.

[Hoopla]

You've been more or less scumreading karnos all game. Why on earth are you asking me this

VOTE: Hoopla

First of all, I spared karnos' life on D1 when I retracted my intent to hammer, so me scumreading him all game is false. My question was about what the logic you used to come to the conclusion that he is scum regardless of my alignment. Lets not act like that was an outrageous question, please.

also Hoopla I'd love to see you do the same kind of analysis on this javajoe wagon that convinced you that Rosske was town.

The reason I was so adamant on D1 of Rosske's alignment, because it was rare circumstances of stars aligning in a way (early wagon, high ratio of scum, unwavering participants on the wagon etc) that seemed highly informative to me. Most other D1's the major wagons could go either way. Another consideration is scum's expectation of such analysis being used -- in games where a lot of people know me, it makes wagon analysis less meaningful as scum will sometimes try to subvert my expectations. Today is also similar in that scum are expecting an indepth look at today's wagon, so it's possible they won't be as brazen and thoughtless with their wagoning this time around, in my opinion.

Having said all this, seeing my name alongside Rach, thenewearth's and Infinity's makes for a quite townie looking wagon, with the only major question-mark being Infinity. I think javajoe is a good chance at being scum based on process-of-elimination. I also don't disagree with some of Infinity's accusations towards him.

[Hoopla]

On a quick skim of this last page, I don't understand what scumslip has just happened.

Someone explain it to me like I'm five.

[Hoopla]

Eh, I think GuiltyLion is stretching and I'm not really seeing what he's seeing, but his overzealous belief that karnos is scum makes me think he is town.

FYI GL, I'm liking these subtle subliminal implications of bolding random passages of text in bright red during your accusations.

[Hoopla]

Nice game scumbags. I enjoyed this setup and thought it was a nice variation of White Flag. Nightless games are hard for scum as they have no means for eliminating obvtownies, but regular nights can sometimes make it took easy for scum to pick off the best players/most obvtownie players -- so I think this is a nice balance.

For town I thought GuiltyLion played a good game and especially in lylo looked very town (although I had spoilers at this stage so I might be biased there), while all the scum played good to great. On balance, I think a narrow scum win was a fair result as town was relatively inaccurate and honestly had a couple passengers at times. Infinity had a nice air of sincerity about him, but I still would have gone after him on D3 if I survived the night, though it seems like he would have been a hard sell to this town, as nobody was really suspecting him too much.

[Hoopla]

Nice modding by the way, callforjudgement.

My only criticism would be to prune your rules a little bit. Rach and TNE didn't even remember the setup, so there's no way they read all those rules. I feel like it's more important to make them succinct and likely to be read than to cover absolutely everything and nobody read them.