Micro 940: A Normal Blitz II - Game Over

[Umlaut]

hard claiming masons with Umlaut

protect us pls

VOTE: Datisi

Hoctac.......

why

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Hiraki
Just look at his ISO, every post is scummy

[Umlaut]

Jokes are fun but let's like not actually hammer on page 1 plskthx.

[Umlaut]

Also not out our roles on page 1 unless you're Hoctac in which case do whatever stupid fucking thing you want I guess

[Umlaut]

You realise they probably assumed I was joking until you just said that... right?

i would have assumed it was for my and datisi's benefit or a tribute to saudade had it not included umlaut.

Are you an alt and do I know you from another game? (can just say "yes" if you don't want to reveal who)

[Umlaut]

Are you an alt and do I know you from another game? (can just say "yes" if you don't want to reveal who)

technically i am an alt (team rocket queen) and i do not believe you know me from another game unless you were playing on an alt.

Okay, because it sounded like you were saying something about me in particular involved and was wondering how you would meta read me like that.

[Umlaut]

EBWOP: me in particular

being

involved

[Umlaut]

Vote: humaneatingmonkey

Come back to us, we miss you already.

[Umlaut]

I have like no read on anyone.

Also why are we wagoning the person who isn't even here? Lurking is bad but complete absence isn't lurking.

[Umlaut]

1. That was RVS
2. Showing up and leaving is different from never showing up

[Umlaut]

Sweet, that makes Hiraki's wagon even too.

(but Madoka's is odd, oh well)

[Umlaut]

Who said it had anything to do with lurking?

I mean when you vote someone with 0 posts a few pages in, I assume it's because they have 0 posts.

[Umlaut]

1. That was RVS
2. Showing up and leaving is different from never showing up

But how is number 1 different? For all you know George and Monkey is RVS Madoka.

Then George and Monkey can say that.

@George, @Monkey

Are the Madoka votes for any kind of reason?

As for two:

Who said it had anything to do with lurking?

I mean when you vote someone with 0 posts a few pages in, I assume it's because they have 0 posts.

Can you not say the same thing for someone who dropped a vote and peaced? Is that not defined as lurking as well? I would even say it is more proper to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka since Madoka could of just not woke up yet to play?

Yes, I do think it's more accurate to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka, which is why I think voting him and keeping my vote their is productive since it might produce some kind of actual pressure while voting Madoka is just a null-op.

I'm puzzled on why you assumed that wagon was had logic behind it (lurker wagon) and not a RVS bandwagon considering all that was said was literally the votes.

I might just be assuming people play in the way I think is good play. If I move my vote it means I actually think the new one is better than the old for some reason, so unless someone is just joining the game I'm going to figure their vote is for some kind of reason even if it's not a very strong one.

pedit

oh my god Hoctac

but also yeah, that's true.

[Umlaut]

Can we just talk about anything else please.

[Umlaut]

@George, @Monkey Are the Madoka votes for any kind of reason?

I think my vote is better placed on a complete null slot than Datisi right now.

No one particularly scum pings me right now, and at the time I didn't feel comfortable bringing Hiraki to L-1.

See, this is a good answer (would be better if it weren't preceded by my Guide to What a Town Vote Looks Like to Me, but it's still good).

[Umlaut]

VOTE: shiki

This is kind of gut pings honestly, but looking at her ISO I can also say she's posted some -stuff- but not really anything that seems aimed at forming or advancing a read.

[Umlaut]

Also

why are we wagoning the person who isn't even here?

Lurking is bad but complete absence isn't lurking.

You're right, instead of just asking why, I asked why and made a guess. Are you going somewhere with this?

[Umlaut]

ill say it straight up. i dont believe this mason claim.
i can't even get a read on umlaut and hoctac without putting the claim in close inspection, which wouldn't be in our best interest. but they're the ones bringing it up so let's do it.
they seem to be AT LEAST informed about each others' alignment.
im just figuring out if they're SvS or TvT. TvS might be possible, but convoluted.
i'm thinking that this will sort itself in a future massclaim, but even then it's very dangerous to believe their claim if they've shown that they can lie about their roles.
i have no idea where to proceed from here.

This is obviously just going to be a constant distraction until it's settled, so whatever, I'll address it.

I have never, ever fakeclaimed as town and I have gone on record as saying it's pretty much always anti-town to do so. Feel free to through my games and confirm. I'm telling you I'm a mason with Hoctac. So either you think I'm a mason with Hoctac, or you think I'm scum and probably he is too.

Outing us right away was stupid and I kind of hoped I could lie low enough to never confirm or deny it, but here we are.

[Umlaut]

Feels less like her usual vibrant self and the Umlaut vote.

I don't know Datisi's usual vibrant self, could you elaborate this into something others can agree or disagree with?

[Umlaut]

Scattered catchup thoughts, not retracting anything btw.

I still think openly disbelieving the claim as opposed to sort of waffling on it and looking at everyone else's opinion is kind of townish, so shiki and Monkey get points for that.

That said, I don't understand shiki's points in 174. Why would Madoka in particular have asked for me to vote you, shiki? Or why would I accept Hoctac's suggestion to vote someone in particular if we were just neighbors and I were town? And why shouldn't I ask Hoctac to elaborate his thoughts in here if I want to see how others respond to them and whether they agree? The benefit I saw it having was just what I said, I don't know enough about Datisi to agree or disagree so I want him to clarify here so others can agree or disagree.

Datisi's 167 and 175 are a bit towny, 178 is whatever, 183 and 186 seem like he's just repeating what shiki said which would ping me if he were pretending it's an original thought but in fact he admits it's not so it's fine.

i'd guess these setups are pulled at random from the approved premade setups.

Someone can tell me if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the premade setups are single-use, so this is not one that has been played before (unless it just happens to coincidentally be the same as some random game from four years ago or something)

Hiraki is not super easy to read but his handful of posts seem fine to me, though I would like him to be more verbose with his reactions. I like that he says he's in the same place I am on reads in 160 because we've been in the same place like that in past games where we were both town.

The HEM-HG spat seems to me like it can easily be TvT. I totally buy "trying to more aggressively push my scumreads" as a kind of change someone would deliberately make as town, and I totally buy that HEM would be pinged if HG's playstyle changed that way. What does bother me a bit is HEM voting him in 210 after HG has already explained this, and then unvoting in 223 after the explanation.

@HEM

What changed for you between those two posts?

Out of active players, I'm kind of suspicious of George Bailey because I'm not seeing any towntells there, and also his approach to the claim was pretty wonky. I note that after Datisi said "stop asking about that" he stopped outright even while everyone else kept on about it, and when he did comment on it again it seems like he sort of had to because that was the only topic atm. This suggests he's worried about how he looks, and also discounting the neighbor suggestion kind of makes sense if he already knows neither of us is scum.

Need to think more of Madoka, they're just dead-null right now

VOTE: GeorgeBailey

[Umlaut]

Umlaut, why do you find my 167 towny? What do you make of Madoka finding it scummy?

I mean 169 itself could go either way, it's more in combination with 175 that it seems like you are trying to give the real reason for your vote instead of the best reason, if that makes sense. I don't really see the overdefensiveness that Madoka is talking about, and it seems like an easy thing to pick at, but I don't think picking at easy things is necessarily scummy.

---

VOTE: GeorgeBailey

I know why I'm voting him, why are you voting him?

---

Could you show me where Datisi says this? I only remember him saying "You can't just ask that" and then I talked about it more.....

Yeah, it was "you can't just ask that" and not "stop asking that," I didn't mean it to be a direct quote. I meant that you backed off of asking the question in a way that strikes me as conciliatory.

---

Hey, George, give us a shotgun readlist! Go go go

A lot of gut feelings around here. You sure you all don't have tape worms?

Not a great read list there.

[Umlaut]

I have to admit, those even wagons really are nice.

[Umlaut]

If anyone needs a metaread on Umlaut this game, just hit me up. We've been playing mafia together for years from Town of Salem to youtube comments, to even club penguin chatrooms. We go way back.

I would never club a penguin, this is a vicious lie.

[Umlaut]

I am leaning Hiraki as the best choice currently.

Is there a reason you're not voting him then?

[Umlaut]

Okay, I mean that's a weird policy and I think you should change it but that's confirmable if true at least.

[Umlaut]

I like that he says he's in the same place I am on reads in 160 because we've been in the same place like that in past games where we were both town.

We have done this before and been on the flip side though. Not sure what your point is here.

Okay, so I saw this and wasn't sure what Hiraki was talking about because I couldn't remember a game that went like he described. I've looked through my own games and the only one I can see where we even were on opposite sides is Open 679, and I don't recall you especially commenting on being in the same place I was in that game. Also I was scum and you were town, which is not really the possibility I was trying to discount there.

Also I just don't really see why the pushback on this. What's wrong with my finding something you did towny, if you did it and you're town?

[Umlaut]

Also I just don't really see why the pushback on this. What's wrong with my finding something you did towny, if you did it and you're town?

Weird pocketing. That game still scars me.

Thanks for feeing my ego here.

Would it allay your fear of being pocketed if I told you that I think your push on HEM, and subsequent refusal to admit to misunderstanding 46, is really shady?

[Umlaut]

How is George's play different here?

He is more involved. In the previous, he was quite lurky.

I'm not seeing that he's really all that involved, can you substantiate this a bit more?

[Umlaut]

Hiraki, the way HEM is saying his post should be interpreted is the way I interpreted it in the first place and really the only one that makes sense. Since you think he's attempting to change the meaning, can you say what you find implausible about the "new" meaning he presents?

[Umlaut]

Huh, TvT fights, from my personal experience, usually revolve around stupid pedantics on definitions or non-trivial issues that only Town would care about. Then usually someone's feeling get hurt, or someone rages.

I've gotten in plenty of TvT fights where we were both genuinely convinced the other was scum.

This is revenge for Fusion.

Don't give me flashbacks like that

Which one do you pick.

VOTE: Hiraki

Can you explain why you picked this one? I don't recall you really saying you think Hiraki is scum, and I do recall you really saying you think Monkey is scum.

can you substantiate this a bit more?

How so?

Can you point to what GeorgeBailey has said or done that led you to consider him actively engaged in the game?

[Umlaut]

Quick thoughts since I see there was a hammer:

• Madoka is looking super town to me lately, esp. in 527 and 543; I also like how her answer in 521 seems to innocently assume my question is totally about sorting GeorgeBailey and not about sorting her.
  
  
• HEM also looking pretty town.
  
  
• HG less town than either but still kinda town.
  
  
• shiki is hard for me to read but I feel like she's a good asset to town if town.
  
  
• Would not really complain about lynching either of {Hiraki, Datisi} tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

It worked!

I will get into this later today but let me just say this was planned, it was Hoctac's idea, and it was specifically to draw a nightkill.

[Umlaut]

Hoctac's idea was that it would confirm mafia believed the neighbor claim and so the other neighbor was town, but I did point out at some point in the day that if he were scum he could just kill me and use that same argument to "clear" himself if people bought it, so I don"t necessarily expect to be treated as clear. But I know this means Mafia at least thought the claims were likely to be true.

He also pointed out last night that Datisi's hammer really came out of nowhere given his stated reads and he found it monumentally scummy. I'm not allowed to quote posts but when I have a chance I'll give a summary of everything we talked about in the nhood.

[Umlaut]

it would confirm mafia believed the neighbor claim

EBWOP: Mason claim

[Umlaut]

Yeah, I just said that in 571. I mean I'm not, but I can't point to anything to prove that.

If I had realized that point faster I probably wouldn't have agreed to double down on the claim.

[Umlaut]

Datisi's stated scumpool yesterday was Hiraki and Madoka, and he had George as a townread. George was at L-1 and Hiraki was the counterwagon. Suddenly Datisi hammers George?

VOTE: Datisi

[Umlaut]

Datisi's stated scumpool yesterday was Hiraki and Madoka, and he had George as a townread. George was at L-1 and Hiraki was the counterwagon. Suddenly Datisi hammers George?

I'd rather you explain this first. But I don't recall thinking you were more openly suspicious than average.

[Umlaut]

This claim looks genuine and there is just no reason for HG to all-in with Datisi like this when I think if scum they could likely win here just by lynching me today and lying low tomorrow. So sure, you're masons.

UNVOTE: Datisi

On the run right now and need to think more, but I'm leaning toward Hiraki by PoE.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Umlaut Motherfucker.

Kind of curious why the "motherfucker"? Why be angry at me if you think I'm scum who caught myself for you?

[Umlaut]

It's either Umlaut + Hiraki or Umlaut + Madoka

Suppose a genie tells you I'm town, who is it then?

[Umlaut]

Since absolutely no one asked what Hoctac and I discussed in the nhood, here's a fairly comprehensive summary. Nothing super useful that I can see, but I want to be transparent now. I'm highlighting parts that talk about our reads on other players specifically in case you don't want to wade through a bunch of inconsequential posts.

Spoiler: This is kind of long

Pregame

• 1-5: "oh hey, it's you"-style chatter
  6: I asked Hoctac if there's more to his role
  7: he claimed Miller Watcher (bcuz Hoctac)
  8: I side-eyed the claim but said if he was serious and was town then I could blatantly soft a PR and he could watch me (but really if he had stuck with the claim I would have just disbelieved it and likely voted him day 1)
  9: Hoctac retracted the claim but suggested what we actually did, saying either one of us would get shot instead of a real PR or else one of us was scum
  10-11: I went along with it and specified "you just lolclaim and I'll come in and get pissy about it"
  12: Hoctac said he was looking forward to it

Day 1

• 13-15: we agreed to probably back off talking about the claim because continuing to talk about it would make it more dubious
  16: I said as long as we never actually deny it outright scum will probably work on the assumption it's true
  17: Hoctac said people don't seem to be buying it
  
  18: Hoctac said Datisi's naked vote might be trying to force a full claim (I assume this was about 118)
  
  19: Hoctac said I was seeming kind of scummy to him and asked why I had no reads on anyone
  20: I said I'd been distracted from the game
  21-22: Hoctac said okay and that he was doubling down
  23: I said also I've been kind of so worried about keeping up appearances with the claim that I forgot to scumhunt
  24: Hoctac lol'd
  
  25: I said I think HEM hard-disbelieving the Mason claim is towny
  
  
  26: Hoctac agreed re. HEM, said Datisi was pinging him, and that he was having trouble reading shiki
  
  
  27: Hoctac said shiki's takes have been pretty good since 70
  
  28: I asked if Hoctac thought what he was seeing scummy in me was what HoldenGolden was seeing, because I was mildly pinged by his push on me but not if the post really was suspicious from an outside perspective
  29: Hoctac just said HG's reasoning for that push was weak (this kind of bothered me since it didn't really answer the question I asked)
  30: I said I didn't want to post in the main thread until we talked about whether to retract the claim or double down again
  
  31: I wrote out pretty much the thoughts I eventually shared here in 230, except I added that I'm pretty sure Hoctac is town because the Datisi push and his way of presenting it appeared like genuine sorting to me
  
  
  32: I said HEM's suspicions of HG also seemed genuine to me, but so did HG's responses
  
  33: I told Hoctac if he didn't get back in two hours I was just going to confess our real roles
  34: [Question for the mod]
  
  35: I gave a readlist: HEM and Hoctac town, HG probtown, GeorgeBailey scum, idk about everyone else
  
  
  36: Hoctac reappeared and said let's go all in, also said he didn't really buy that HEM would think backtracking now is "not AI" but doing so later would be, and that HEM could be scum who just really needs to know for sure that we're masons and wanted to confirm it
  
  
  37: Hoctac said HEM's progression on HG felt unnatural to him, that he townleans shiki, and that my reasons for scumleaning her are just how she plays
  
  
  38-39: Hoctac liked Madoka's read on Datisi, liked Holden for town but wanted to meta-dive his scum game
  
  40: I confirmed I was going all in, said I would be super salty if Hoctac was scum
  41: Hoctac said he probably
  wouldn't
  be salty if I was, since this was all his idea
  42: [Answer from the mod]
  43: I asked Hoctac why he said he wanted to end the day in 43
  44: Hoctac said it was a joke
  
  45: Hoctac said George had an unwilling-to-offend tone to him that might be scum
  
  
  46: Hoctac pointed out shiki was dead-on about the mason gambit
  
  47: Hoctac pointed out scum might have information from their own roles that would let them genuinely doubt a mason claim
  
  48: Hoctac said this is why HEM's doubt was not necessarily as town-indicative as I thought
  (though in retrospect given that there really are masons scum couldn't possibly have 'known' there weren't)
  49: I said shiki's accuracy was awesome yet annoying, and that I was getting paranoid of a scum!Hoctac killing me to "clear" himself as town
  50-51: Hoctac said he hadn't thought of that, also said it was kind of towny of me to consider it now
  52-53: Hoctac jokes
  
  54-55: I said I wanted to see if Hiraki retracted his suspicion after HEM explained the misread, and if not then I wanted us both to further pressure him on that and see if he flinches (spoiler: he didn't)
  
  
  56: I said one of us could also raise the point that HEM eventually changed his mind about pushing the mason claim, and see if someone like e.g. Hiraki jumps on it,because it's a weak point and pushing it further could be scum-indicative
  
  57: I acknowledged Hoctac's 47
  58: Hoctac said he was raising the point I brought up in 56
  59-67: banter
  
  68: Hoctac said he was unsure how to take Madoka's accepting the mason claims at face value and that it didn't seem like her, but maybe she had more suspicion than she was letting on
  
  69: Hoctac asked how I was reading him
  70: I said probtown but asked why it mattered
  71: I said we should try and gamesolve during the night so if one dies the other can share their thoughts

Night 1

• 72: VOICE OF MOD:
  73: Hoctac said he's not confident I'm town but agreed to work on solving at night;
  Hoctac said the hammer looked really scummy (for the reasons I've shared in this thread) and thought maybe Datisi feared people would be convinced by Madoka's case and wanted to end the day asap
  
  74: I said good point
  
  75: I said Hiraki's "don't townread me for that" in 319 caught my eye because I have seen scum players attempt to get towncred for refusing a townread and I was trying to figure out if this was an example of that, and that while this didn't seem to quite fit that pattern it was still stuck in my head
  
  76: I complained about not feeling great
  
  77: I said HEM and Madoka are the towniest towns to me, and if we can convince ourselves HG is also town then we can just lynch everyone else to win

And then it was Day 2

[Umlaut]

I mean, I know it's not a knowledge slip from being Umlaut's partner, but whether you know that or not you have to admit she quite clearly and deliberately presented it as a

deduction

and that can't really be called a slip in any case.

[Umlaut]

Also, in case anyone hasn't noticed and is still uncertain about this: Datisi's and HG's claims are pretty much 100% confirmed unless you believe the NRG passed a setup where town's entire PR roster is a pair of Neighbors.

[Umlaut]

Here's the last vote count of yesterday, color-coded:

GeorgeBailey

(5) -

Umlaut

,

HoldenGolden

, Hiraki,

Hoctac

,

Datisi

Hiraki (2) -

humaneatingmonkey,

GeorgeBailey

Datisi

(1) -

Madoka

Not Voting (1) -

shiki

(I get to be blue because my role PM says I'm town, if you want to be blue then make your own post)

Either GeorgeBailey was subject to an all-town mislynch or Hiraki is scum. And I think it's pretty clear Hiraki's vote for GeorgeBailey was to some extent survivalistic in nature, given that it came when he was at L-1.

To rule out the all-town possibility I want to read through and see if there was any of {HEM, Madoka, shiki} were either null or inconsistent or wishy-washy on GeorgeBailey, because even if they would prefer to stay off a mislynch I'd think scum would want to leave open at least the possibility of self-consistently voting for him if it was necessary to push the wagon over the edge. If not then Hiraki is pretty much definitely scum afaic.

[Umlaut]

Oh is blue PR color? I just wanted to emphasize that Umlaut and Hiraki are both unconfirmed in a green wagon and Umlaut is still working on a narrative that it's not an obvious counterwagon to Hiraki.

I can't quite parse this sentence. Of course I'm aware I'm unconfirmed to others, that's why I didn't make myself green, but I'm not going to just wall off the fact that I'm town and refuse to take it into account when I'm giving my perspective on the game.

[Umlaut]

Like how would saying "oh but maybe I'm scum too" make that post any better?

[Umlaut]

Okay fair enough

I don't like this, you are backing off an explanation given by your top scumread way too fast.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: shiki reads on GeorgeBailey

i remember georgebailey reacting very literally to a similar situation in the past so my initial read was towny.

i think georgebailey simply took it at face value. he modded a game in which i was part of a hydra and my unnamed hydra partner impersonated me. at endgame, georgebailey continued to believe that the impersonator had been me, so i think him reading the mason claims the way he did checks out.

i think it is town indicative because of the way he seemed to be celebrating his past victory. its kinda the inverse of something i felt last time from humaneatingmonkey when it felt like he was trying to get me lynched before getting lynched himself not to win the game but because i had been scumreading him all game.

it kinda feels like our mason claims do not care who is lynched. umlaut is scumreading georgebailey for something i thought was kinda towny and hoctac is scumreading georgebailey for not responding to his request for reads promptly. umlaut voiced his suspicion of you immediately after monkey started the wagon and hoctac has jumped between the wagons.

-His positioning between the Hiraki/monkey wagons, and assuming it's TvS and but not that they're bussing. I didn't find the way he ruled out TvT natural.

i thought this was weird as well, though his explanation of what he thought town v town arguments looked like kinda resonated with me.

So, from a bit of research, turns out George's tone is completely NAI, and he's actually just a really nice guy.

scum!georgebailey feels really aimless to me.

Said she thought he was town. Continued to say she thought he was town. Raised meta points to support this. Would have looked super weird jumping onto his wagon. I think it's safe to say if there was scum waiting in the wings to jump onto the GeorgeBailey wagon, it was definitely not shiki, because she put herself in a position where it would have been hard for her to do that plausibly.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: humaneatingmonkey reads on GeorgeBailey

VOTE: GeorgeBailey

lmao

But you were curious, were you George?
Would it be in your town wincon to confirm a mason lolclaim? Let's talk about that.

perhaps hot take: george is town

you sure?

i can buy scum faking "tactlessness" to confirm a lolclaim

i dont know if george would specfically

not a guy of meta

I don't see it really coming from scum!george there given how he did it.

i feel like i knew a different george than you guys so im waiting on shiki on this one. im gonna sheep her meta reads.

okay so town bailey it is
you can be in my townblock

hot take: someone TMI defended GeorgeBailey there

in our last blitz, george was a distant town, so I don't know why scum!george is especially "cautious" because i've seen him do it before as town.

VOTE: GeorgeBailey

I know why I'm voting him, why are you voting him?

im sheeping you and i want this game to develop. i have no reads on anyone other than the masons, HG, and shiki.

You said GeorgeBailey is your secondary scumread. Do you find me scummier than GeorgeBailey because of #46?

Can anyone pushing for a Bailey lynch tell me why Bailey is a better lynch?
And where the hell is Bailey?

Seemed to originally be presenting a scumread of George, but let shiki talk him off it, and then said someone (Hoctac, I presume) "TMI defended" him. #101 isn't really a read

per se

but seems to discount the reasons given for townreading him. Then he sheeped me back onto GeorgeBailey (even though he didn't believe the mason claim and had declared the only alternative to that was that I was scum), but eventually fell back off onto Hiraki without ever talking in the interim about GeorgeBailey

per se

. I find last post here the most interesting, because if I imagine a scum!HEM making it the most plausible motivation is that he genuinely wanted someone to make a case for scum!GeorgeBailey, so he could have something to point to.

I have no trouble believing, under the hypothesis that Hiraki is town, that HEM could be the scum looking for a safe way onto the GeorgeBailey wagon.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: Madoka reads on GeorgeBailey

♡ I am town reading HEM. He is playing in an easy going way and does not seem to care too much about players being town read. In the previous game he pushed for players pretty hard so as to avoid being PoEd. He was also very LAMISTy and he does not appear to be making an effort to appear town here. My negatives are that his friendliness and jovial character is making me feel weird because of the stark contrast with his previous play. It does make me wonder if he is trying to be so different from the last game, that he is town read by meta. @Holden, did scum HEM in your last game play similarly to Blitz I? Or did he change up his style? Do you think his play here is within the realm of being deliberately different? Another thing that is weirding me out is how he keeps addressing Shiki. But I think the most suspicious part of HEM's play was his read on the George situation. George simply was not scummy there, and HEM portrayed everyone else's read of the situation as coming from meta, but I do not think that was the case except for Shiki. I suppose this, along with the way HEM has been addressing Shiki, could be explained if they are in a neighborhood and Shiki expressed her meta view of George privately.

♡ I have a town impression of George. His reaction to the masons claim appeared natural and fluid. My only negative is that his play is different than the previous Blitz. That does not provide enough data, however, for this to greatly impact my read. Oh, I also was not fond of his HEM read. George agreed that everyone's view of him came from meta, but again, I do not think that was true. He just looked townie from the situation.

How is George's play different here?

He is more involved. In the previous, he was quite lurky.

♡ George has made some really innocent seeming posts, but he also seems to be making a lot of posts that read as TMI. In particular, his read of shiki and his read of Holden. He made a post saying that he thinks the reason holden is playing differently here is because of the pace. I think this is a strange opinion to have considering the last game they played together was also a blitz game... I think George is currently my strongest suspect.

This represents the current strength of my reads

GeorgeBailey
<<<<

<

<<<<<o>>>>>>>>>>

Datisi
<<<<<

<

<<<<o>>>>>>>>>>

HoldenGolden
<<<<<<

<

<<<o>>>>>>>>>>

Hiraki
<<<<<<<<<<o>>

>

>>>>>>>

shiki
<<<<<<<<<<o>>>>>>

>

>>>

humaneatingmonkey
<<<<<<<<<<o>>>>>>>>

>

>

Madoka, why do you put so much stock into people doubting our masons claims to as being towny - especially with regards to the monkey? Is in not possible scum would transparently question us if they actually had doubts of a gambit, since they want to kill more optimally in the night?

I do not believe I am. I think George had the the towniest reaction to your claim. My reasoning for town reading HEM is independent of what he thought about your claim. I think the way Holden treated it, however, was scummy because of how long he spent theorizing about your motivations. It was a waste of time for something that would be cleared up on its own.

Can you point to what GeorgeBailey has said or done that led you to consider him actively engaged in the game?

He is just more active than he was in the previous Blitz. I do not think this is particularly alignment indicative. I simply mentioned it in the process of sorting my feelings.

♡ George making HEM vs Hiraki as only T v S is really scummy.

I think lynching Datisi, George, and Hiraki in that order wins it.

Well, first of all I just have trouble believing Madoka is scum at all and manages to post the way she does. But putting that aside, she very clearly had GeorgeBailey in her scumlist and would have had no difficulty voting him, or at least putting him at intent since he was L-1. Given how much reason Datisi had given for scumreading George at this point, I kind of think if she were just scum looking for a lynch she would go ahead and vote or at least intent George right then and there rather than play around, but I don't put high confidence in that hypothetical. But at any rate if there was scum dancing around and flirting with this wagon I'd say it wasn't her.

[Umlaut]

Okay now I'll read these 400,000 posts that were made while I was composing these

[Umlaut]

To rule out the all-town possibility I want to read through and see if there was any of {HEM, Madoka, shiki} were either null or inconsistent or wishy-washy on GeorgeBailey, because even if they would prefer to stay off a mislynch I'd think scum would want to leave open at least the possibility of self-consistently voting for him if it was necessary to push the wagon over the edge. If not then Hiraki is pretty much definitely scum afaic.

??? this doesn't make sense

The point I'm making here is, if you're town and I'm town, then GeorgeBailey was an all-town mislynch. I don't believe scum are willing to trust an all-town mislynch to actually go through, in which case there would have to be a scum off the wagon who was prepared to jump on if need be to secure the lynch. (On further reading I've decided that if there was such a player, it was HEM, as I detail in my followup posts)

[Umlaut]

I mean, not quite, I still need to actually decide that you're town, and I haven't figured out how to do that yet.

(Flipping you seems like one good way but maybe you have a better suggestion)

[Umlaut]

I have never, ever fakeclaimed as town and I have gone on record as saying it's pretty much always anti-town to do so. Feel free to through my games and confirm. I'm telling you I'm a mason with Hoctac. So either you think I'm a mason with Hoctac, or you think I'm scum and probably he is too.

i feel pretty strongly that umlaut is scum here.

err, hoctac*.

ohh. hoctac is hectic. in that case, i am quite certain that hoctac thought umlaut was mafia as well. this:

No, shiki, it's in the same view as the murder mystery conspiracy.

is referring to this post by hectic in mystery box hate:

There's something that really intrigues me about this game; it feels more like some kind of murder mystery and less like a mafia game.

which i thought was referring to a game called muskoka murder mystery as i discussed in my neighbourhood from mystery box here:

viewtopic.php?p=11766940#p11766940

one of the posts made by the player that replaced super mario's slot in the murder mystery game contained a typo (mt instead of my) that read as though it was giving a read of one of the players in mystery box (morning tweet) that hectic wanted to communicate under the radar.

i believe hoctac's typo here:

*the same vien

was intentional to remind me of this. the game that hoctac is referencing with this post:

put me on blast in front of everyone

is the same game that madoka linked earlier: mini normal 2118. the specific post it is linked to is this one:

viewtopic.php?p=11613226#p11613226

which is an accusation by dsjstr of his neighbour, ame. if applied to the situation of this game, i believe hoctac was confirming that i had correctly deduced that he was in fact a neighbour (and lying about his role, as he did in mystery box also) and conveying to me his read of umlaut in case he died in the night.

I'll actually be very curious to find out post-game if this is really what was going on, because at no point do I think Hoctac was really townreading me, and the timestamp of those messages you are referring to are right around the time he made his post #65 in the neighborhood, which I just filed under "joking" in my summary but where what he literally said was, if I'm scum, I should go ahead and kill him for the towncred.

So I actually am willing to believe Hoctac was doing exactly what you say he was doing, and just misread me.

[Umlaut]

actually im tired so ill just do it quickly, there is actually a lot of evidence of an all-town george bailey lynch and that scum were trying to stay off the wagons. i am pretty confident that the scum are off the wagon rather than on the wagon at this point

I get that you're tired. Once you get some rest can you come back and point to this lot of evidence more explicitly?

[Umlaut]

What I see here is forcing a false dichotomy that lynching GeorgeBailey = bad. I don't think that's true. Gamestate forced us to a single wagon. That's what needs analysis

I mean it's "bad" in the sense that it was a mislynch, but I don't think voting for what in retrospect was a mislynch is inherently suspicious if that's what you're saying. There is a little more nuance to the argument than that.

I could vote Hiraki but there are some things I need to figure out first, like whether a Hiraki+HEM team is even possible (because if it's not I might even want to vote shiki as the PoE-d second scum with either one of them).

[Umlaut]

But that said I'm pretty sure at least one of {Hiraki, HEM} is scum which means I'll have to pick one eventually, so maybe it might as well be today.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: shiki on Hiraki

Yes, I do think it's more accurate to say Hiraki is lurking than Madoka, which is why I think voting him and keeping my vote their is productive since it might produce some kind of actual pressure while voting Madoka is just a null-op.

i do not think hiraki's lurking is alignment indicative in the same way that i do not think hoctac's claiming masons is alignment indicative. hiraki is likely treating his vote as an egopost and waiting for the game to develop, which is in line with his play as either alignment.

Soft defense.

shiki, is Hiraki scum?

i don't know. i think hiraki is generally pretty accurate but the differences in our reads on you come from such disparate places that it is hard for me to make anything of it.

I haven't seen him tunnel other town, so I want to know from shiki if this is common town!Hiraki modus operandi.

i think in a lot of ways hiraki's pushes are his scumhunting as much as the result of his scumhunting, if you're asking if he commonly tunnels, which isn't really the word i would use to describe it. if you're asking me if he commonly 'tunnels' town as town i would say no but there isn't really a way for me to apply that to this situation until after the fact and it also doesn't make a lot of sense to do so because noone is 100% accurate.

More of a refusal to give a read than a read

per se

.

shiki, what does scum!Hiraki look like?

mostly the same to me. i noted that he tone policed others in a way that was very uncommon for him in one of his scum games when i was looking over it last time.

Again, not really a read, but given that shiki hasn't then said he's doing that here I sort of want to call it indicative of a townlean.

We have a mislynch, correct? I say we just lynch Hiraki and if he flips green it is HEM + Shiki.

this^ feels like it is attempting to set up a mafia victory. paired with the suspicious nature of umlaut's vote on me early game i feel like madoka is umlaut's most likely partner. madoka townreading my read of said vote and referring to it as paranoia could have been an attempt to subtly get me to stop thinking about it.

Kind of a stretch to interpret it like this IMO, though I suppose if you start from the assumption Madoka is scum it's a reasonable guess. But this is also sort of attacking a post that said "let's lynch Hiraki" so again a soft defense.

Not even going to bother making a "humaneatingmonkey on Hiraki" post, it's obvious they're at one another's throats here.

[Umlaut]

1) how many times has HEM flagrantly lied this game about his past performance?

I'm terrible at guessing games, how many?

[Umlaut]

@HEM

Yesterday

• you vocally disbelieved the mason claim, and
  
• you said (and maintained today) that if mason claim was a lie then at least one of the claimants was scum.

It seems reasonable to conclude that yesterday you thought I was probably scum. Is this correct? I am going somewhere with this but I'd like you to give a definite answer to this before I continue.

[Umlaut]

Looking forward to the VCA.

9: Hoctac retracted the claim but suggested what we actually did, saying either one of us would get shot instead of a real PR or else one of us was scum
10-11: I went along with it and specified "you just lolclaim and I'll come in and get pissy about it"

i would like to know the timing between 9 and 10 and wish hoctac were here to confirm. additionally 9 seems like a good reason for you to kill hoctac. otherwise, hoctac wakes up tells us the two of you were lying and voices his suspicion of you.

Why do you believe I'm scum but also believe what I'm telling you about the PT is in any way true?

(but those posts were about six minutes apart, to answer your question)

The more that I think about it, the more I think gambit comes from town Umlaut. I think mafia would have been resistant to Hectic's plan, considering the backlash.

i would have agreed to the gambit regardless of my alignment and i find it very likely you would have as well. if your argument is specifically that town!umlaut would have participated in the gambit and that scum!umlaut would not have, i would like to know what that is based on.

Though I know my self-read is worthless here, as scum I'd be more hesitant to so visibly go against my record of not lying as town, as opposed to explicitly calling out that record to back up my claim knowing full well I'm going to be revealed as having lied the next day. I'm not going to say I

absolutely wouldn't

do that because there's nothing I wouldn't do as scum if I thought it would win the game, but I don't imagine I would trust it to work.

like whether a Hiraki+HEM team is even possible (because if it's not I might even want to vote shiki as the PoE-d second scum with either one of them)

'shiki is scum because the two people who have been scumreading eachother all game are unlikely to be aligned' does not feel like a real thought process.

It is a real thought process. What seems unreal about it? If I'm town and Madoka is town and HEM+Hiraki isn't the team, then you have to be scum.

Soft defense.

this would be more accurately described as me giving a nullread and voicing suspicion of those scumreading.

More of a refusal to give a read than a read per se.

this one is more of a nullread than a refusal to give a read. what i meant by the disparate places is that i thought the differences between my and hiraki's read were noteworthy but not something that could be resolved logically. another example of that this game would be the differences between my read on datisi (town indicative emotional response) and hoctac's (scummy vote, scummy hammer).

Would you say you still have Hiraki at null today, then? I mean, I get you think Madoka and I are scum, but looking at just Hiraki himself what do you think?

[Umlaut]

Tried to put together a "shiki on HEM" quote post and only found one quote.

Shiki is HEM town?

i am townleaning monkey. he didn't give a really forced scumread on an rvs vote the way he did in both the last blitz game and newbie 1996 and i don't think mafia would be so eager to celebrate a recent scum victory. he also seems less mechanical (for lack of a better word) here than last time.

shiki townleaned HEM yesterday, and this ISO dive is less interesting than I was planning for it to be.

[Umlaut]

it assumes madoka is town and at the same time does not assume that monkey and hiraki are not scum partners but rather something you'd like to look into in order to discover that they are unlikely to be partnered. like it's a plotted near future read instead of a thought process. i think about the day one wagons for twelve seconds and it seems unlikely they are partnered.

I think it's quite unlikely too but there is really no limit to the level of busing I have seen from scum. That said you're actually right that Madoka's townhood is more in question than that the team is not Hiraki+HEM, and that my post kind of says the opposite. But at any rate I'm really more interested in lynching between {HEM, Hiraki} today, and really just awaiting the rest of Golden's posts before I make up my mind on which.

[Umlaut]

Moving into the Hiraki/HEM interaction now.

Hm, is this still going to happen? Or was that second post the whole thing? I really would like to see this.

[Umlaut]

I have it in my head that the team is either {Hiraki, shiki} or {HEM, Madoka}, and the latter consists of exactly the people I townread the most D1, so I should probably just vote Hiraki but I'm sort of hopelessly indecisive rn

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Hiraki (L-1)

It's probably just this.

[Umlaut]

Someone doesn't want to hammer Hiraki.

This seems to imply you find that person suspect. Do you find shiki suspect? She's the only one you could reasonably be talking about.

[Umlaut]

Anyway, I would actively prefer that no one hammer Hiraki until HoldenGolden has finished his sequence of posts (or under extreme time pressure if it comes to that).

[Umlaut]

I want to see the thoughts specifically to reassure myself that I am on the right wagon here, so that doesn't really help me.

[Umlaut]

Obligatory "it's LyLo, be careful" message

That said,

pseudovote HEM

because I think if it's not Hiraki it has to be him.

[Umlaut]

I promise I will get to this but I've been occupied all day and probably will be until tomorrow evening sometime. I know it's crappy to disappear like this in lylo in a blitz game but it is what it is.

I will at least acknowledge this:

And Umlaut, what is your impression of [shiki]?

She's the sort of player I would cop first if I could, because I will never get a read I feel confident in. I'm just barely leaning town at the moment, partially on tone and partially because I don't really see her teamed with either you or HEM. I'll try and expand on this answer when I have a chance.

[Umlaut]

Actually I think now that I misread 828 and clidd was actually asking Holden his impression of me, not asking me my impression of shiki.

Curious to know why Holden rules out HEM-clidd as a team because that's kind of where my mind is going (though I will say I'm much, much more confident in the HEM part). Maybe I'll read again and see if I can beat him to that conclusion.

[Umlaut]

Okay, started reading the HEM-Madoka interactions and almost immediately came to a conclusion about whether they're a likely scumteam.

Tl;dr: No, they're not.

Spoiler: HEM-Madoka interactions, Day 1

VOTE: Madoka

Even wagons look nice

First interaction is HEM voting Madoka before Madoka even makes a post in the game, for a pretty random reason. Honestly I don't think random votes like this are really indicative one way or the other of connections between players.

the Madoka votes were RVS, but also at the heart of every RVS is trying to see the reaction of people when they wake up and they have a wagon on their name

Again, not really indicative one way or the other.

Umlaut, could you confirm if you are indeed Masons? I'd rather not waste mental energy attempting to sort you if you are. And being deceptive and having us think you are when you are not, causes confusion and is unfair to your allies if you're town.

I'd like to add: If one of you flips and you aren't masons, I promise that I will lynch the other no matter what. Any backtracks now will not be AI, but backtracks later I will read as scum. This is your last chance to come clean.

This kind of indirect "and another thing" interaction, on the other hand, kind of reads to me like one of Madoka or HEM is town. My mental model of scum says they're hyperconscious of appearing to move in unison and would prefer not to do so barring some sort of obvious tangible gain, and I don't really see one here, particularly since continuing to ask for confirmation of a PR claim like this is

prima facie

suspect.

Madoka, I think I'm townreading Hiraki.

This is more weird than anything, I need to think more about it. HEM, why would you tell this to Madoka specifically?

I am town reading HEM. He is playing in an easy going way and does not seem to care too much about players being town read. In the previous game he pushed for players pretty hard so as to avoid being PoEd. He was also very LAMISTy and he does not appear to be making an effort to appear town here. My negatives are that his friendliness and jovial character is making me feel weird because of the stark contrast with his previous play. It does make me wonder if he is trying to be so different from the last game, that he is town read by meta. @Holden, did scum HEM in your last game play similarly to Blitz I? Or did he change up his style? Do you think his play here is within the realm of being deliberately different? Another thing that is weirding me out is how he keeps addressing Shiki. But I think the most suspicious part of HEM's play was his read on the George situation. George simply was not scummy there, and HEM portrayed everyone else's read of the situation as coming from meta, but I do not think that was the case except for Shiki. I suppose this, along with the way HEM has been addressing Shiki, could be explained if they are in a neighborhood and Shiki expressed her meta view of George privately.

So this is by far the most commentary Madoka gives in her read of anyone in 402, and that commentary is pretty meh on a reread: "I think HEM is town because he doesn't seem like he's trying very hard to look town." That said, it's a little unusual for scum to list their buddy as their top townread. Not unheard of, but a little unusual, because psychologically it is difficult to believe you can sell a hard townread on someone when you know the evidence for it can't possibly be good.

Ok, looking through that last page, I think it is safe to lock HEM as town.

Yeah, again, scum!Madoka doesn't instantly offer this opinion of scum!HEM before the rest of the town has weighed in on it. scum!Madoka can't tell herself with confidence that scum!HEM's catchup posts look super town, because she knows perfectly well they aren't coming from town and doesn't trust that this opinion won't catch her some heat.

Madoka? Where's your Hiraki vote?

I could say "if scum!HEM wanted to say this to scum!Madoka why not do so in the private thread," but in the case where HEM was scum this post was as much theater as it was actually trying to sway Madoka's vote, so I don't put a lot of stock in this as an indicator. I do note Madoka didn't respond to this directly.

Up to Page 10

[spoiled stuff]

♡ I still read Datisi's reaction as coming from self-conscious scum. Some of his responses afterward had a towny tone, however, I do not think they are enough to override the read. Still, this read is not that strong.

♡ Holden's treatment of the masons was strange. He focused on it way too long and he questioned umlaut way too long. It did not produce anything fruitful. I really cannot wrap my head around why he discussed the Madoka vote thing with him so long. I think there is a good chance Holden is scum.

♡ Shiki has made solid post after solid post. Her reasoning is consistent and her points do not come off to me as having come from scum. In particular, her paranoia that I asked umlaut to vote her and her read on Holden.

♡ Hiraki's post up to this point have also left a slight town impression on me. They looked worse when I was skimming, but his points are not bad.

♡ George has made some really innocent seeming posts, but he also seems to be making a lot of posts that read as TMI. In particular, his read of shiki and his read of Holden. He made a post saying that he thinks the reason holden is playing differently here is because of the pace. I think this is a strange opinion to have considering the last game they played together was also a blitz game... I think George is currently my strongest suspect.

HEM is notably absent from this read list, which I suppose I should interpret as Madoka's read not having changed there? Aside from Hoctac and I (the at-the-time claimed masons) he's the only player absent. Kind of wish I could ask her about this now. Anyway, her followup post 507 has him as her top townread still. Really, looking at 507, I'm inclined to agree with HG that if Madoka is scum her partner would have to be clidd (or I suppose me, from his perspective).

Madoka can you speed up to 21 so I can finally see your vote

Can anyone pushing for a Bailey lynch tell me why Bailey is a better lynch?
And where the hell is Bailey?

This pair of posts is kind of odd. If HEM is pushing Madoka to vote then, based on her reads as they stand, he should expect her to vote for GeorgeBailey. Yet, despite claiming to not really understand the case on GeorgeBailey, he is not interested in arguing the points Madoka raises against him before she makes her vote. I don't understand what HEM's town mindset is here, which makes me more willing to think he's scum. My instinct is that this doesn't look like a scum-scum interaction but there's nothing I can really point to there, so I'm going to pretty much treat it as null in that regard.

Specifically, why is this "super town" from monkey?

Oh! I had forgotten I even town read that. It was town because of how forward he was with it. There is no advantage to doubting the mason claim so hard as scum because it pins two players that know each other are town against you. I also like how immediate his reaction was to your claim. I can see from his perspective why he thought it was fake.

The reason why I find Holden's approach scummy, on the other hand, is because of how indirectly he is going about it. He is actively spending his time questioning the two of you when you are going to be sorted out eventually.

Since I felt the same way about both of these at the time, I don't really read too much into it. At any rate this isn't really an HEM-Madoka interaction

per se

.

I still think HEM is town. I do not think the points on Hiraki are AI though.

Kind of a weak reason for townreading HEM again, because the points on Hiraki are most of what HEM did during the day.

♡

I think Hiraki may be image managing this game.

He tends to be quite mean, but he has complimented me, shiki, and umlaut in some form. He also seems to be playing less assertively. This is not substantial enough to lynch him though. I think most of his content is reasonable. He misinterpreted HEM it seems, but I don't see that as AI. Not really having a solid scum read other than HEM is the biggest negative.

I think you hit the nail on the head with image managing. I felt something like that with Hiraki's play. But why is that is not AI to you? IMO that's a big indicator that he's careful about what he's seen as.

When I scanned Hiraki's games, he is not above compliments. He is constantly positive to people who he thinks he

vibe

with — aka people who agree with his reads.

Here I would say that (1) as I pointed out before, Madoka easily had a reason to vote (or intent) Hiraki here, especially with the deadline as close as it was, so going for Datisi instead is a surprising choice; and (2) HEM seems to be trying to push her to do just that. I could believe two scum would have this interaction (it's not as if they would really care which town wagon gets lynched), but I wouldn't say this especially points in that direction.

Spoiler: HEM-Madoka interactions, Day 2

You're getting lynched, Umlaut

I believe Umlaut. The reasoning that Umlaut is scum for lying is not valid because Hoctac also lied and he was town. I would like to run up Datisi.

Could well be scum-scum; I don't expect two scum to visibly take the exact same position here. It's actually a little odd that Madoka never ever softens her opinion that I'm town, even though as far as I can see her entire reason for believing it is because... I lied about my role?

HEM are you neighbors with Shiki?

I'm fine with a massclaim if that's what we're doing.

P-edit: No, I'm a VT.

I really don't know why anyone would think I'm neighbors with shiki

Are you partners with Shiki then? Because the way you have interacted with her reminds me of the way you interacted with bugspray.

I am also a VT.

No I'm not partners with shiki. Tell me about this interaction with bugspray.

No, why would that be helpful.

Yeah, this isn't scum-scum. Madoka refusing to explain her suspicions of HEM in detail is thereby refusing him a chance to defend himself. There is no reason to do that if you're just trying to distance from your scumbuddy and don't actually want him lynched.

I'm sorry I called you full of shit, Madoka. I get now the POV why you thought it was me and shiki. After Umlaut and Hiraki, it's just me and shiki on your PoE.

But can you still explain why you believe Umlaut? IMO there's a lot of reasons not to believe him.
Also, how confident are you in that monkey-bugs were similar to monkey-shiki?

This sort of "forgiveness" is again weird for a scum-scum interaction, because scum!HEM isn't really afraid of how his own buddy sees him.

The more that I think about it, the more I think gambit comes from town Umlaut. I think mafia would have been resistant to Hectic's plan, considering the backlash.

Why would mafia be resistant to Hectic's plan? It's the perfect excuse to kill off your neighbor and get townread for it. It's either accept this gambit or ML the town neighbor. Both would flip the town neighbor in such a way that reveals they weren't confirmed, but the other provides an excuse to be seen as town.

I think the first line is incorrect. If you don't agree to the gambit, your partner thinks nothing or town reads you. If you agree to the gambit and kill your partner, you do not get town cred. The only thing the gambit was useful was the possibility of line two. Had they not died, we would know one or the other was scum. But one of them dying does not provide insight one way or the other.

As to why mafia would be resistant to the plan, because of how bad it makes them look among the town. We gave umlaut multiple chances to come clean and he could have used any of those as a way out of the gambit. You made it clear that if he was lying we would lynch him. The fact that he continued it any way I think is indicative that he was less concerned about self-preservation and more concerned about reading Hoc.

Madoka, Umlaut literally celebrates Hoctac's death because now he's confirmed town, he says.

I think Umlaut was more excited about the fact that Hectic was killed than he was about being clear. I do not think he thought he would be clear.

I disagree. There's absolutely no reason to celebrate the death of your town neighbor if only to signal the fact that it may imply you being cleared.

Your town neighbor gets NK'd and your reaction is "woo!". Why and what have you gained?

Think about it Madoka.

I would be happy about it. Their goal was to draw the night kill and it worked.

Hoc is not the easiest person to read. From Umlaut's perspective he got mafia to kill a difficult slot that had a good chance of being scum mechanically.

But what have you gained??? What would you gain there, as Umlaut?

The elimination of a difficult to read slot by mafia's hands as opposed to the town's.

I'll sleep on it.

There are a lot of posts here and I skipped several to focus on their main back-and-forth interaction here. What I want to emphasize is that

Madoka just cannot be convinced I am scum here.

I don't even know why not (though she seems to understand what I was doing, these are all more reasons not to scumread me specifically for the lying than reasons not to scumread me at all), but the exact reason doesn't matter here, because if this were a scum-scum interaction the point would be to sell a story where one of them was swayed into agreement with the other, and at the end of this story they never really come to any kind of agreement on anything at all. There is just no other reason to get into a 1v1 with your buddy like this over a third party, unless it's "we will get into this big 1v1 and not come to any agreement and then someone will think we're not buddies over it tomorrow," and I don't think that's what I'm looking at.

[Umlaut]

Pseudovote: shiki

I think it's most likely {HEM, shiki}, but moreso than that I think it's

not

{HEM, clidd}; any reason I had for doubting an HEM-shiki team is dwarfed by my reasons for doubting an HEM-clidd team. So I want to lynch here first.

Will also take time if we have it to look at shiki-Madoka interactions and try to look at shiki herself, though I suspect the latter will still just come back as "who knows" as it has so far.

[Umlaut]

I think "I'm going to ignore Holden" is a pretty wtf reaction to have, but I can kind of empathize with clidd's wanting to vote and settle it in his own mind. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't strongly considered just voting shiki.

[Umlaut]

I wonder if clidd was reaction testing to see how sure you were of your conclusions, Holden, by seeing whether you were comfortable with his voting. That would explain why he threatened to vote HEM instead of me, it would explain why he concluded with "I'm going to ignore you from now on," and it would explain why he didn't actually do it.

[Umlaut]

I wonder if clidd was reaction testing to see how sure you were of your conclusions, Holden, by seeing whether you were comfortable with his voting. That would explain why he threatened to vote HEM instead of me, it would explain why he concluded with "I'm going to ignore you from now on," and it would explain why he didn't actually do it.

Why are you trying to defend cli2d?

If that's the point, why did he not take me up on my offer to explain things and instead choose to state he will ignore me? Even as a reaction test, that compromises the test.

Why would he even be reaction testing me on my conclusions as town rather than just openly discuss why he thinks differently?

I'm trying to understand what clidd is doing, because it doesn't make a lot of sense to me otherwise, and that was the best explanation I could muster. I agree it's a pretty lame test if that's what it is but it's the only explanation I can come up with for why he wouldn't just plan to vote (or, in fact, vote) someone he actually has in his scumpair. I feel like even his being scum isn't really a sufficient explanation for that.

[Umlaut]

She's the sort of player I would cop first if I could, because I will never get a read I feel confident in.

what sort of player is this? i ask because this is not a sentiment that has been commonly expressed toward me.

That's hard to articulate compactly, and on reflection I should maybe have just said that I find you difficult to sort instead of saying you belong to a class of players with that characteristic. But I can say at least that you strike me as more analytic than emotion-driven, and particularly as the sort of analytic player whose posts often lead me to feel like they could have written something very close to the same thing regardless of alignment, if only because to them the analysis is so plainly

true

that there is no point in trying to obscure it. I think for example that, if you are scum, you are saying I am scum because you genuinely believe that that is in some sense the "correct" conclusion for town to draw from the evidence available, even though you know it isn't the true one.

Players like that are hard for me to solidify a read on and I usually have to fall back on PoE or associatives.

[Umlaut]

How would it benefit scum!me to argue that town!you would also say I'm scum in this scenario, and then say that nevertheless you're scum? I just don't see how that can possibly make me look ant better because it is basically saying it's understandable that a town player might scumread me now.

[Umlaut]

How would it benefit scum!me to argue that town!you would also say I'm scum in this scenario, and then say that nevertheless you're scum? I just don't see how that can possibly make me look ant better because it is basically saying it's understandable that a town player might scumread me now.

[Umlaut]

Shiki, I don't have a real answer to that because it was an inessential detail that I could easily be wrong about. It seems that you're nitpicking at an inessential detail of my post, the purpose of which was to establish the manner in which I found you difficult to read. Latching on to that detail to suggest that I'm just trying to push an agenda, in response to my addressing a question you asked in the first place, makes me wonder if you ever actually cared about the answer to that question.

[Umlaut]

Scum won't flash-hammer

[Umlaut]

Eh, I'll bet the game on this actually.

VOTE: shiki

(actually logged on this morning to do that before I saw clidd had voted, but I don't see why that should stop me)

[Umlaut]

shiki confirmed scum (given that I'm town), or else HEM and clidd could have coordinated a hammer there.

[Umlaut]

shiki confirmed scum (given that I'm town), or else HEM and clidd could have coordinated a hammer there.

I'm still waiting for Shiki. I don't know if this is a bluff for me to vote for shiki in the Monkey + Umalut scenario.

What do you mean by a bluff? Do you think the proposition "if Umlaut is town, then shiki is scum" can be anything but true given the state of the vote count right now?

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: #615

No, I am not going to spend time trying to explain vibe. The way he talks about Shiki reminds me of the way he talked about bugspray. Read it yourself or lynch me.

@datisi, I have no idea if it is Shiki + HEM until I see Hiraki's flip. This conversation is fruitless because it is speculation based on no evidence other than PoE.

Is it just me or is it uncharacteristic of Madoka to say "lynch me or him" here? There was no real threat here, but it seems like she's trying to project confidence for her narrative on #604. It reads as fake to me.

Can someone who isn't currently 1v1ing clidd comment on this? I have no idea what is or isn't characteristic of Madoka.

[Umlaut]

Shiki is afk, idiot.

Thanks for the careful consideration before hurling insults.

• You, HEM, and I are all online.
  
• I am voting for shiki.
  
• If shiki and I are both town, this means you and HEM are both scum.
  
• If you and HEM are both scum, then you could coordinate a hammer on shiki and win the game right now.
  
• If you have a way to win the game right now, you're going to take it.
  
• You and HEM have not, in fact, coordinated a hammer on shiki.
  
• Therefore, shiki and I cannot both be town.

With what part of this do you disagree?

[Umlaut]

ugh.

@mod: I would be very grateful if you would fix my list tag

[Umlaut]

clidd, your ego is way out of proportion to your actual ability. This isn't really alignment-indicative, I guess, but I just have to say it.

[Umlaut]

ugh, whyyyyyyyyy

[Umlaut]

clidd, your ego is way out of proportion to your actual ability.

[Umlaut]

I'm going to just quote this every time clidd writes a self-satisfied post in a game forever.

[Umlaut]

Ironically, had I not felt Madoka was so town yesterday, I might have voted HEM over Hiraki and maybe we would have been in a better position today.

[Umlaut]

clidd, your ego is way out of proportion to your actual ability.

[Umlaut]

I regret voting you, Hiraki. In retrospect I feel like the evidence was there for me to vote HEM instead at that time, and maybe it would have gone through.

[Umlaut]

Were you actually crumbing at shiki, Hoctac? I have to know.