Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)


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Post Post #24 (isolation #0) » Tue Jul 10, 2012 2:42 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 6, Magister Ludi wrote:I need to know if either Regfan or Fate have detailed flavor knowledge in this game.

Vote: Minimum


Their entire role PM is posted for you to read.

VOTE: Magister Ludi
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Post Post #28 (isolation #1) » Tue Jul 10, 2012 3:13 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 27, Shmugen wrote:Disclaimer: There will be an immediate FoS on anyone who I deem too incendiary. Heaps of rage = heated argument and whining = lack of fun and potential modkills due to post quantity.


Did you look at the playerlist before you deemed this to be a good idea?
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Post Post #45 (isolation #2) » Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:56 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 33, Shmugen wrote:
In post 28, AGar wrote:
In post 27, Shmugen wrote:Disclaimer: There will be an immediate FoS on anyone who I deem too incendiary. Heaps of rage = heated argument and whining = lack of fun and potential modkills due to post quantity.


Did you look at the playerlist before you deemed this to be a good idea?


Yes. Even the most ragey of players should theoretically be able to rein it in for a day or two, however long this lasts. This new attempt by moderators to impact pacing is one I enjoy. This method of enforcement is strong, but I'm a science guy in real life, I appreciate forceful brevity.

Come thee at me, bros.

Post Count: 2


So you're basically really just a moron.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #3) » Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:32 am

Post by AGar »

In post 35, Magister Ludi wrote:erm.... so what? I wasn't asking for their flavor knowledge of their pm, but rather of the arabat book/this game in general. What I want to know, exactly, is who the probable scum team is from an informed flavor standpoint, and who the good guys are.


And you don't think there would be fakeclaims provided?

Also really not big on the 1-of-3 deal with MoI, feels way too gambity on my part considering all 3 are players he'd openly prefer to policy lynch on an account of simply not liking them.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #4) » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:09 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 103, sword_of_omens wrote:i didn't see where MOI mentioned that he would prefer a policy lynch on all 3 or that he doesn't like all 3? Unless it's common knowledge that i'm not aware of?


Read his first post where he votes petapan, he makes it fairly obvious that he has a high level of disdain for all 3 of them.




@Fate
I'm not Mina. I'm not going to go the same route as her in trying to find out the meaning behind something. Suck it up.
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Post Post #120 (isolation #5) » Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:53 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 110, Shmugen wrote:The stakes are too low for Magna to be making that up. One of the three is scum? Where's the scum motivations in that kind of shenanigan. If he's scum and we believe him wholeheartedly (aint gonna happen), we'd lynch 3 town and then one scum. More likely we'd lynch one, one would get vigged if such a role exists, and if none flipped scum we'd kill Magna. It seems possible that Commexo could be among the 3, but things are usually against the SK anyway, I doubt a renowned mod like Hito would do such a thing. Magna is not always the most fun to play with, but this gambit is too high risk low reward for scum to pull off.

I'm torn on Shinori. Am I really just thinking he's too new and would pull those sorts of extreme reactions? Some of you have townreads on the slot, why so?

5


This isn't a scumgambit MOI is pulling, it's an "I don't like these people, let's get three successive policy lynches through and I might get lucky and not have to play with them" gambit.
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Post Post #131 (isolation #6) » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:39 pm

Post by AGar »

Lol @ ReckDB

Minimum: I think it's pretty clear why my vote is still parked, maybe you should just read the posts I make. It's really really helpful, I promise.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:36 am

Post by AGar »

@ML
I do still want this answered: Do you think in a game where flavor could be pretty easily made to identify Day/Night/Commexo that the mod would not provide fakeclaims? If so, why are you asking "who could be scum?" and not "do you think it is beneficial for a mass-name-claim?" instead?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Llamarble

I actually think he's worst of the moves onto the wagon. Not sure what could have been "faked" in 120. It wasn't aimed to be "Lol look at me be town." It was a straightforward "This is how I interpret MoI's actions."

Shinori just looks like lazy-town trying to move the attention off him because that's what tends to be a natural reaction of both town and scum when a wagon forms on them - get attention diverted elsewhere.

Otherwise, the ReckDB rapidshift when Fate called out "Oh lol ur scum too." was pretty laughable at best.

In post 136, MagnaofIllusion wrote:And certainly there’s no possible reason for people to seek out that information …


What good does it do to seek out "Hey who would theoretically be scum?" if there's a high chance of mod-provided fakeclaims? Hito isn't a shit-mod, he's not going to put an entire scumteam into position to be lynched because their rolenames were obviously scum. If that were the case, the easiest way to go about this would be mass-name-claiming. This is the problem I've had with his posting thus far - it seems highly pointless to be doing what he's doing rather than paying attention to the game. A vote does not always mean I am 100% set in the ways of him being scum, it never has. Vote is the town's most powerful tool, and if you aren't voting someone for some reason, you're wasting what you have.
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Post Post #172 (isolation #8) » Thu Jul 12, 2012 9:37 am

Post by AGar »

Because reading P-edits is for tools:

In post 168, Shinori wrote:Frankly I don't see why your vote is still on magister Ludi and it seems like you are just spouting random nonsense here.


If you'd read all of my posts, it'd become pretty apparent that I thought what he was going on about was fairly pointless given the mod and the flavor's implications.
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Post Post #176 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 12, 2012 10:00 am

Post by AGar »

In post 173, MagnaofIllusion wrote:No-one has said that scum don't have fake-claims (because the Mods specifically said they did) or suggested that somehow scum would be lynch via rolename claims alone. That you are resting your whole stance on a premise that no-one has argued or thinks is scummy.

I also appreciate the lesson on voting. I am voting someone I think is scum. So I think I've got a handle on it.


If it's role related to him personally, there are better methods to go about this than focusing almost his entire posting in this thread on it. THAT is what I had been resting my entire stance on, you egotistical jackass. It was never "Oh, herpderp, he don't think scum have fakeclaims, derp." It was "Why is he asking for flavor insight when the IC role PM is posted?" "Ok, he wants to know what rolenames would be scum? Scum most likely has fakeclaims, what actual purpose does this serve the town as a whole."

What happened to your "1-of-3" deal you abandoned oh so quickly when a wagon sprung up, eh?
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Post Post #186 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 12, 2012 2:24 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 182, Shmugen wrote:Agar, you've got to read a little better. MoI isn't pushing any kind of agenda, as scum or for policy. He already made clear multiple times that he had no reason to not come forward with his info, so he did, and that's that. Anyone in their right mind would lynch someone scummy D1 over taking a blind shot. Your concept of ML scum is also based on dildos, as, like many have said, we all know the scum have fakeclaims. Pushing someone on knowledge of fakeclaims is pushing someone on how closely they read the rules, which isn't scummy.

2? 3? The kid don't always remember where he's been.


Re-read my post again. It's not that ML went "Herp derp no fakeclaims." It's that if this was public knowledge and he had ulterior motives for wanting to know about , I failed to see any good reason for why he even brought it up in the thread in the first place. He's stated that he has a reason, which while I'm skeptical of, I'll take for now. At least he's not dancing around it.

As for MoI, again - reading comprehension really ain't your thing. I don't believe MoI, how about that? He's hurled a personal insult in the initial post where he claimed there was non-town in that group of 3 at
each player he listed
. It seems MIIIGHTY convenient for that to also be "LOL THAR BE SCUM HURR".

@Fate
Llamarble, your take?
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Post Post #206 (isolation #11) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 3:13 am

Post by AGar »

In post 204, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Agar wrote:What happened to your "1-of-3" deal you abandoned oh so quickly when a wagon sprung up, eh?


Nothing happened to it. The information is out there. I appreciate your rather scummy effort to somehow paint me voting a scummy player outside that group as abandoning it. The information is public and isn’t going away. There are at a minimum 3 other scum outside that group (and realistically it probably is 5). Why again shouldn’t I vote for one of them who is obv?

Do you want to come out and directly say I'm scum? You've skirted the issue enough (saying you think I'm faking and the above sideways swipe).


Actually I'm just trying to confirm my suspicion that you're just pulling a retarded gambit, like I said when I first read your post. I think it would be a suicide squeeze for scum to pull that move, so it puts you as likely town solely based on the stupidity of it. I do feel that if you honestly had this information, you'd be less likely to abandon ship and more likely to push one of those three on Day 1, as the boost in the odds on Day 1 alone over random lynching is a notable one, and I'd venture a guess that MS on a whole lynches slightly worse than random on D1.
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Post Post #248 (isolation #12) » Fri Jul 13, 2012 6:57 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 222, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
AGar wrote: Actually I'm just trying to confirm my suspicion that you're just pulling a retarded gambit, like I said when I first read your post.


Then you are wasting time and energy trying to prove your personal ego point valid when it is doomed to fail. It’s not a gambit and frankly the amount of energy you are expending proving ‘points’ that aren’t scum-hunting (your ML point where you completely misread his post and then continued as if he wasn’t making sense when he did) is why my vote is where it is right now.


Do you disagree it would be beneficial for a scum player to aimlessly seek flavor knowledge in an attempt to "look town"? It wasn't that ML made sense (if you'd read my posts in full you'd know this!), it was that I didn't see a purpose to his pursuits.

Also, it's not a personal ego point valid. Confirming that suspicion allows me to put anything related to that particular discussion and direction on skim mode. So yes, I will follow up on it as much as I prefer. If that bothers you, oh well.




I'm just not seeing Shinori. Llamarble looks way worse to me, everything about his posting just screams scum trying to just cause confusion instead of trying to actually do anything productive.

@ML
When you say "pretty good" for this power, you're willing to say it was worth outing yourself on D1 and drawing the attention of the anti-town factions AND trying to draw protection away from the IC tonight (who are lovers so if one dies, all die)?
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Post Post #281 (isolation #13) » Sat Jul 14, 2012 5:09 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 249, OnceAndForEver wrote:UNVOTE: VOTE: Hindu

Nah if I'm not getting a gaurunteed 1/3 scumkill today I'm going back to my original plan, this guy needs rope.


This post. I do not like this post at all. And then some.

Shinori wagon just makes me all sorts of uneasy, feels like a trap door waiting to fall out from underneath.

Nuwen, your logic is dead wrong. Almost 1/3 of the playerlist seems to be not actually into the game right now in one form or another - worst possible time to start condensing wagons. Still need to spread and explore things, get an idea of actual stances beyond RVS bullshit and early-game bickering.

Llamarble still needs to die. Karen Walker is really not giving me good vibes. OAFE can die too.

Hindu, chill the fuck out dude. Last thing I'd like to see end Day 1 is a 9-post lightning strike, sets us back way far.
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Post Post #327 (isolation #14) » Sun Jul 15, 2012 1:33 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 320, Minimum wrote:

Agar wrote:Llamarble looks way worse to me, everything about his posting just screams scum trying to just cause confusion instead of trying to actually do anything productive.

What does that even mean? How is that an actual scumtell, and how exactly does someone go about "trying to cause confusion instead of trying to do anything productive"?


Chides me early D1 for voting someone over a misunderstanding.
Doesn't understand a post I make.
Votes me.

wheeeeeeeee

How is causing confusion in any benefit to the town? It isn't. How does it benefit to the scum? Less coherency in a town leads to far more inaccurate reads, far more clutter to sort through and far more opportunities for a player's slips to be covered up.

Ergo, "scumtell". Or, more accurately, reasoning for a vote. Scumtell implies that it's something that is directly telling of scum on a consistent basis. I think this isn't consistent for all players (this is also fairly common behavior in VIs to simply post inane bullshit that only clutters the thread), but a player like Llamarble - who isn't a terrible player - behaving in this manner does not sit well with me at all, enough that I'm willing to lay the vote down there.

Read his posts - he keeps posting shit like "Well I know this in my scum meta but LOLOL FUCK IT!" or "I'm not actually reading this game, but HURR BE MY READS."

How does that help ANYTHING stay clear? It's pretty much intentionally trying to inject WIFOM into every turn, because when a player is self-aware of a meta, you have to worry about them manipulating it. This is ten times worse because now it's "Is he fooling us into thinking that he'd manipulate his own meta as scum, but just wants us to bite on that hook and semi-clear him?"
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Post Post #362 (isolation #15) » Mon Jul 16, 2012 9:31 am

Post by AGar »

In post 334, Minimum wrote:It would benefit the scum but that really is almost entirely theoretical. Scum don't randomly decide to try and cause confusion and 'marblescum certainly wouldn't.


Randomly? No, not at all. Doesn't mean they don't intentionally do it in some form.

It benefits scum. He is doing it. Not 100% of the time. But posts to the effect of "This is my scum meta tralalala oh well WIFOM tralallala", "Stop voting me so I can be town." and "I'm not reading the game, but here are some reads." are at best anti-town. Being that this is a player who should know better, by all accounts, there is no reason for intentional and deliberate anti-town posting. And it wasn't "Oh lol, whoops - that was stupid!" He acknowledged it in his own posts. He knew what he was doing was capable of causing problems and he
just went on and fucking did it anyways.


Going "He wouldn't do it." is playing right into the exact pattern scum would want from a play like this.

In post 335, Flash wrote:
In post 327, AGar wrote:but a player like Llamarble


What games have you read or been in with llamarble?
(I'm trying to see this CES, I really am).


He was in the first game I modded and he's been in one or two others that I've played in where he was a member of a hydra. Other than that, nothing that I recall specifically (I can't go "Aha! It was NY 256 and he played like this blah blah"), but I do recall him as a player who uses his brain rather than just drooling on a keyboard and pressing "Submit".
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Post Post #397 (isolation #16) » Tue Jul 17, 2012 6:04 am

Post by AGar »

"Quick! Who can I post about that already has some traction so my 'scumreads' have a chance at being lynched?"
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Post Post #414 (isolation #17) » Tue Jul 17, 2012 2:50 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 413, MagnaofIllusion wrote:So I wonder how long Bella is just going to avoid this thread since?

Now that Regfan is willing to go to bat with me I think this is warranted -

VOTE: Bella


Really? Of all possible lynches, you're going after
that
?

Fuck, I'd rather you lynched me than Bella so at least something can be gained from that.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #18) » Tue Jul 17, 2012 6:56 pm

Post by AGar »

I just think that sounds so absurd as a fake claim that it would be a suicide squeeze for scum to fake that, for the exact reasons you outlined Flash...
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Post Post #448 (isolation #19) » Wed Jul 18, 2012 6:43 am

Post by AGar »

In post 441, MagnaofIllusion wrote:So are you scum who knows Bella is Day and one of the others is your partner and are playing the White-Knight game or are you scum with Bella hoping to defuse the possibility of a growing wagon? Since my read on her is scum I'm thinking the second.


Or I see the absolute null-value of a lynch on a player who hasn't really been engaging in the game thus basically burning the D1 lynch, which is by and far the most important for setting up successful later days.

Also for fuck's sake, get your own personal grudges out of the game. You've struck up personal attacks on players rather than attacking their play - if you're town which I unfortunately think you are, fucking cut the bullshit and actually get back to
playing the game.
It's not entertaining when you try and be Cyberbob in a game, it's really fucking annoying.




Back to Llamarble. Mo'fugga needs to die, like instantaneously. If you don't read his "isos" and feel "wow, that's insanely contrived," you need to get yourself checked, because there isn't a genuine bit in there.
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Post Post #457 (isolation #20) » Wed Jul 18, 2012 7:26 am

Post by AGar »

In post 455, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
AGar wrote:Also for fuck's sake, get your own personal grudges out of the game. You've struck up personal attacks on players rather than attacking their play - if you're town which I unfortunately think you are, fucking cut the bullshit and actually get back to playing the game. It's not entertaining when you try and be Cyberbob in a game, it's really fucking annoying.


But that’s not the truth and you know it. My suspicions of Bella came 100% from her reaction to my play, her complete lack of actual scum-hunting, and her play not reflecting her beliefs.

I believe she’s using ‘outrage’ as a mask for not scum-hunting. She basically just admitted that she knows she isn’t voting scum but is happy to idle her vote there. Look at her ISO. See how many cases of actual suspicions you can find. In her response about you she even shied away from calling you scum just that you were ‘less Town’ than someone else which is basically fence-sitting. She isn’t looking to lynch scum. She’s looking to survive.


If that's your angle, fine. But stop baiting with shit like "I have you on my mod blacklist for X reason..." and "Well you're inevitably going to flake so..." - it doesn't fucking relate to the game.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #21) » Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:18 am

Post by AGar »

In post 485, Llamarble wrote:Meh, there isn't a clear winner in Bella Peta Chesskid land. Yet. I do think it'll help to get more posting from those slots either from present occupants or replacements.
Also whoever said the commexo could lay in that group, that is pretty unreasonable since unless Commexo role is pretty weird that would leave it extremely unlikely to win.

Staeg UT Agar Hindu and a 1 of 3 (Chesskid or maybe Bella) sounds good for Night. Commexo is for PRs to find.
I still have lots and lots of reading to do though; Staeg / UT are on that list because they look poor on initial examination and trustworthy people want them dead.

Does anybody agree with me that Hindu = scum?
VOTE: Hinduragi


You're really going to try and peg the entire scumteam on Day 1?

Like holy shit, that's just...

I don't even know what the fuck to say to that, that's how bad it is.
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Post Post #510 (isolation #22) » Thu Jul 19, 2012 9:22 am

Post by AGar »

In post 493, Staeg wrote:MoI - I buddy Fate when I feel like the situation calls for it. Fate actually mislynched me on these grounds as scum before. I didn't react to Fate's suspicion because every single time he's done this before he came around to me being town for saying something seemingly random.


This. What the fuck is this shit?

You basically just claimed that you're ignoring Fate to get him to "clear you" as town?

What. The. Fuck.

No. Just no.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Staeg
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Post Post #529 (isolation #23) » Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:44 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 523, Nachomamma8 wrote:Did you miss MoI's claim?
Also, what could we gain from your lynch? Because I'm listening.


Did you miss me saying I'm calling bullshit on his claim?

I'm not answering the second half because apparently you didn't read the entirety of what I said, try again.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #24) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:15 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 583, Tierce wrote:Hai. Haven't read, and going out in a bit. First priority will be parsing Llamarble for hider breadcrumbs, see if he didn't hide behind OAFE or Nacho.


To bounce more off of Minimum, not only can anyone do that, but it really doesn't serve any good purpose. There are a million and one better uses for your time than to try and guess at who Llamarble
might
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Don't like the 4nx push on Quilford, feels really reaching.

Minimum/MoI and Minimum/Nuwen disinterest me, feels like a lot of bullshit and not a lot of usefulness going on.

Shin's posting is just really bad, I'm not sure what to make of it. Pretty sure he's not Night due to the tail end of D1 from Staeg (scum gain more from a forceful push on their partner than a half-assed one, so so much more.). Could be Commexo, his posting feels all sorts of survivalish. Very reactive to events in the game, not very proactive at all.

As for the "Send" mechanic, I vote we let it pass us by the wayside, it's really not something we can benefit from this early in the game based on lone speculation. Not only that, but it's an inherently scum-sided mechanic as it doesn't stop factionals, meaning scum simply lose a PR, but not a goon. Really not a huge tradeoff compared to what could be lost by town.

VOTE: Shinori

The more I read, the more I really dislike.
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Post Post #656 (isolation #25) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:35 pm

Post by AGar »

Hindu (and P-Edit: Reg too):

Why not? D1, I can understand. You want to build off of D1. D2 is usually a day I've found in my experiences to be a dud day, where town usually chases some kind of bad interactions between the D1 lynchee and whoever they end up lynching D2 that is quite often wrong.A Commexo read on D2 relies on pretty independent analysis of the player (which the town as a collective seemed to do ok at D1, which is a plus), and while it's a bit harder, provides greater gains.

-- The following is running off of the Llamarble-hid-behind-OAFE/Nacho assumption and not banking on a vig right now --

Taking out Commexo on D2 puts town on a better game clock - Commexo lynch puts us at MYLO on Day 7 in a worst-case-scenario (6 town 4 Night), where as Night lynch puts us in a 4 town 4 anti-town (3 Night, 1 Commexo) on Day 6 worst case scenario and a Town lynch puts us in a pretty ugly 6 town 5 anti-town scenario on Day 5.

You're not going to get "good reads" on an SK like you are a typical scum player. There are no connections, there are no "interactions" - there are only innate behaviors that relate to the necessity to outlive a large number of people in this game (23 vs. 1). He needs to avoid at least 6-7 nights of kills AND survive roughly 8 day phases (assuming Night's last member is the Day 7 lynch which is the best case scenario for Commexo). That's a tall order.

Why not take a Day while we're a step ahead to try and put ourselves even further ahead rather than wait until we're in dire straits to figure out a way to prolong our situation? Eventually Commexo needs to be weeded out because the longer we wait, the smaller the gains (even if we lynch him in a phase 1 day before LYLO with him alive, we're in LYLO the next day anyways).
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Post Post #659 (isolation #26) » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:13 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 657, Hinduragi wrote:We aren't a step ahead because we just lost 3 fucking townies in a single Night. That's devastating compared to a single scum flip.


My numbers are all off because I forgot to calculate the Two-In-One's lover-aspect, but needless to say, we basically bought ourselves an extra day/night phase with the lynch yesterday. So yes, we still are a step ahead.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #27) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 5:22 am

Post by AGar »

In post 663, MagnaofIllusion wrote:This quite frankly is terrible. You aren’t a newbie … you very well know that specifically hunting for a Serial Killer when 4 Night players remain is correlated with being Night. I’m going to have to decide if you would be so brazen as scum to do so …


Not a Newbie? Correct.

But you're right, we should wait until the combination of Night+Commexo absolutely ravages our numbers before we actually start to look for Commexo. Figure this: We're going to lose something akin to 2 a night while both factions remain. You guys want to say "Hey, let's look for Night! Fuck Commexo, they can wait!" That's great, but what do you do when you don't hit Night and the two kills demolish our numbers? Then what?

Why ignore something that seems pretty fairly straightforward right now and instead go on a wild goose chase. Tell me, oh wise ones, what leads you all have off of Staeg's flip, since that's the only real reason I can see anyone saying "Oh well we're going to completely ignore Commexo and go for Night." - because you have strong association/interaction based reads off of Staeg's lynch.

Commexo isn't going to look for Night, and vice versa - they both help each other in big ways right now. As long as they avoid cross-fire, their relationship over the first few days is going to be fairly mutual in trying to keep each other from being found. At most, Commexo might try and snipe a few Night so he or she doesn't wind up in a situation where town is already done and now Night just has to find the SK.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #28) » Tue Jul 24, 2012 9:24 am

Post by AGar »

In post 675, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
AGar wrote: But you're right, we should wait until the combination of Night+Commexo absolutely ravages our numbers before we actually start to look for Commexo. Figure this: We're going to lose something akin to 2 a night while both factions remain. You guys want to say "Hey, let's look for Night! Fuck Commexo, they can wait!" That's great, but what do you do when you don't hit Night and the two kills demolish our numbers? Then what?


Are you intentionally trying to straw-man? No-one has suggested we absolutely ignore scummy players because they might be Commexo. What people have suggested is that focusing on lynching Commexo (and I’ll get to this later in my response) when enough scummy players exist to put to the screws.


But yet I keep hearing "Focus on Night reads."

MoI wrote:
AGar wrote:Why ignore something that seems pretty fairly straightforward right now and instead go on a wild goose chase. Tell me, oh wise ones, what leads you all have off of Staeg's flip, since that's the only real reason I can see anyone saying "Oh well we're going to completely ignore Commexo and go for Night." - because you have strong association/interaction based reads off of Staeg's lynch.


finds me getting several good Town reads and several scum reads (Chess and yourself) from Staeg’s ISO. Funny that you seem to ignore that post exists.


Well since I know I'm town, I'm not really taking your "analysis" for being worth much, now am I?

MoI wrote:
AGar wrote: Commexo isn't going to look for Night, and vice versa - they both help each other in big ways right now. As long as they avoid cross-fire, their relationship over the first few days is going to be fairly mutual in trying to keep each other from being found. At most, Commexo might try and snipe a few Night so he or she doesn't wind up in a situation where town is already done and now Night just has to find the SK.


Your ‘Scum are never going to cross-kill’ stance is rather bad since it assumes full knowledge by both sides of who the other is which is pretty ludicrous. Cross-kills happen all the time when players who are deemed to be Townie are killed and flip scum. It also assumes we have no Protective or preventative roles that can help keep the Day bodycount low.

Remind me again what your case for Shin being Comexxo is? Becauase what you posted in doesn’t even come close to being what I would call a compelling push.


Hey look, you call me for straw-manning then do it yourself! I never said they won't cross-kill. Hell, I even said "As long as they avoid crossfire." I said they're not going to actually actively look for each other. They're going to say "Hmm, who do I see town pushing on that's a really bad case? Let me join that wagon."

My "case" on Shin isn't some wildly amazing case. It's basically gut, if you really boil it down. I read his play and more than any other player, I get pangs of "This is what an SK is going to be doing right now." If you want more than that, you're shit out of luck.
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Post Post #736 (isolation #29) » Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:21 am

Post by AGar »

In post 722, MagnaofIllusion wrote:So as hypo-Town you are going to ignore the other three reads simply because you are scummy?

And this basically side-steps your original point that reads can be made from Staeg’s ISO when you called them ‘wild goose chases’.


Honestly, I've glazed over 90% of your posts. I think you're town, but I also think most of your analysis so far has been pretty shit, so I just put you in a special little pile and see that you've maintained activity and haven't said anything too dumb.

That said, apparently one of your reads is holding merit because holy shit MattP's posting is superbad.

Comes in, presumably sees he's one of the "1-in-3" and goes into panic mode. "Oh god, I have to have reads ASAP. Fuckfuckfuck, how do I look town so they don't lynch me off of this?"

Proceeds to bullshit his way through some bluff-reads, stops. Someone suggests that based on his "reads" he should be voting Bella, so he throws up a vote without actually giving much thought to anything he prior said (including the assumption that he read Bella as town from his "Hateful Killer theory").

UNVOTE:
VOTE: MattP

You need to die.

Tierce-voting is meh, we'll figure her out later.
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Post Post #738 (isolation #30) » Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:36 am

Post by AGar »

In post 737, MattP wrote:I'm not at ALL in panic mode so you absolutely suck at reading tone

I read your interaction with moi as town and after reading the setup it confirmed he wasn't HK. Therefore I believe his claim which means Peta or Bella is scum and I have a strong town read on peta.


Yeah bullshit.
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Post Post #753 (isolation #31) » Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:41 am

Post by AGar »

In post 752, MattP wrote:Your vote reasoning sucks complete ass Bella


Those who live in glass houses...
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Post Post #766 (isolation #32) » Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:26 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 754, MattP wrote:Hey agar

Your tunnel visions sucks too


Sorry, when someone comes in and plays as blatantly bad as this, it tends to grab my immediate and focused attention.
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Post Post #800 (isolation #33) » Thu Jul 26, 2012 9:41 am

Post by AGar »

UNVOTE:

Send: MattP


Frustration is boiling over at this point and if either of these reads are correct I'm going to have a fucking conniption. Having these ICs shut down every other wagon is getting god damned fucking annoying. Bella wagon is shit. Sword and Tierce wagons are pretty meh.

Fucking lynch me for fuck's sake, at least I'm fucking active.
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Post Post #809 (isolation #34) » Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:56 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 802, Regfan wrote:Give me a legitimate reason why Bella is a bad lynch (Or why you think she's town if that's the case) because "She's barely active" really doesn't sell me against her lynch at all, it actually incentives it. Read through her ISO, she hasn't stated a single scum-read other than Matt and that scum read is mostly due to him being 1ofthe3 other than her. I mean seriously take a look at her and tell me you think she's a bad lynch again. Also I don't understand how you can be as frustrated as you are right now with us shutting down lynches when we shut down the OAFE one, the Llama one you pushed who was town and us shutting down the lynch on you.


The entire case on her seems to be glorified buying into the 1of3 deal and picking her over two other players who have been as bad or worse as the accused. Peta has been seemingly detached from this game for the most part. Chesskid just gave no fucks, and MattP is playing so heartily shitty it's not funny. I don't see how if you're buying the 1of3 claim you're picking Bella right now. If it's not the 1of3-claim, then I only assume it's "lurking" and "fencesitting" which is basically what half of this game is doing. Sera pops in, points to Chess/MattP and then dips out. SoO has been so low-key I forgot he was actually in the game. Nuwen has spouted theory and that's about it with a hint of flavor, I have no idea where any of her reads stand. There's so much inconsistency in solely targeting Bella that if you weren't confirmed-town I'd be highly suspect right now. You're zeroing in on a read your "slot" can't even come to an agreement on because one player is trying to meta her and another is trying to lynch her for a glorified lurking case.

I don't see any substance to this wagon at all. Show me something and I'd bite, but I looked over her post and even you are missing things.

I really don't care if you shut down a lynch on me. Lynches give information. That's what the town has to work with. I'd rather see the town decide they want to string me up and go through with it than you/Fate go "Oh nope, I got like... a slight town tell, abandon ship," because lynching me is going to give wagon reads. That's what happens when a wagon and lynch goes through without interruption by a playerslot that it basically feels like we have no choice but to obey because of your confirmed town status. Instead we run someone up a bit, stall out and try again. How can that not frustrate a town player?
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Post Post #855 (isolation #35) » Fri Jul 27, 2012 10:14 am

Post by AGar »

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Tierce

Really don't like the posting I'm seeing. Sorry, it shouldn't have taken this long to get into things. Some reads would be a lovely thing sooner than later - block out all the other shit if you have to, but this slot has never been a beacon of :townposting: since game-break so you're gonna catch shit.

@Reg, re:Bella
I'm not 100% buying into it, although thank you for at least laying it out. That's probably at least part of what's set me off is a lack of clarity as to why things are being pushed/shut down.
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Post Post #953 (isolation #36) » Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:04 pm

Post by AGar »

Didn't the first Abarat Mafia have a pairing of "informed" roles where one knew one was town and the other knew one was scum?
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Post Post #961 (isolation #37) » Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:00 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 955, Minimum wrote:
In post 953, AGar wrote:Didn't the first Abarat Mafia have a pairing of "informed" roles where one knew one was town and the other knew one was scum?

Yes and this matters how?


People acting as if both existing confirms both as town. This is... problematic, in my eyes.

Tierce wrote:AGar, how much flavor knowledge do you have?


None, I'm currently trying to unprocrastinate reading the books.
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Post Post #963 (isolation #38) » Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:06 pm

Post by AGar »

Petapan is slight town. Mainly an admittance of not 100% being head first in this game and admitting that he's kind of angry his main tool to sheep is gone when that tool to sheep has been pretty destructive towards Night so far.
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Post Post #1063 (isolation #39) » Tue Jul 31, 2012 5:02 pm

Post by AGar »

Prod dodge, etc etc. Content tomorrow. Forgot about this game before I ran out of steam.
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Post Post #1179 (isolation #40) » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:34 am

Post by AGar »

VOTE: Quilford

Freakishly in need of death.
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Post Post #1182 (isolation #41) » Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:24 pm

Post by AGar »

Also, instead of this 1-in-3 talk, we should be lynching out of Quilford/MattP. I feel like :goodthings: will come of this.
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Post Post #1192 (isolation #42) » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:39 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 1180, Quilford wrote:Why do I have a wagon on me?

VOTE: AGar

Freakishly in need of death.


You so mad. So so mad.

Also, don't steal my quirky little sayings if you don't know what they mean, scumbag.
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Post Post #1236 (isolation #43) » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:57 pm

Post by AGar »

The fact that Quilford isn't being hammered by MattP right now makes me a sad panda.
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #44) » Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:18 pm

Post by AGar »

Hindu, I suggest taht we should have Quilford hammer MattP or vice versa. Is this copacetic to you?
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Post Post #1277 (isolation #45) » Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:19 pm

Post by AGar »

Oh wow, the last line of your first paragraph says you'd compromise to that.

Well then.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #46) » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:41 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 1281, Flash wrote:Tammy is probably non mafia and minimum is town. /prod dodge


Vote for Quilford.
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Post Post #1303 (isolation #47) » Sun Aug 12, 2012 5:03 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 1287, Minimum wrote:AGar, you keep repeating that you want MattP to hammer Quilford. Thoughts on Tammy? Do you agree with Seraphim's and 4nxi3ty's assessments of her play? Your reads have been fairly static today.


Oh yeah, MattP is Tammy now, huh? Funny how you stop paying attention to little details after shit happens.

One of them is scum.

Reads are static for a reason.

GOD FUCKING DAMMIT PEOPLE I AM HANDING THIS TO YOU.

AM I ALL ALONE IN THIS GOD DAMNED WORLD?
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Post Post #1335 (isolation #48) » Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:50 am

Post by AGar »

In post 1325, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@AGar – have you looked at where and how KarenWalker / Quilford end up on wagons in comparison to the flipped scum in your read on that slot as Night?


Are you dense? Like, seriously... ARE YOU DENSE?
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Post Post #1352 (isolation #49) » Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:29 pm

Post by AGar »

KILL. QUILFORD. WITH. FIRE. AND. TAMMY.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.
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Post Post #1356 (isolation #50) » Mon Aug 13, 2012 4:35 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 1354, Tammy wrote:
In post 1352, AGar wrote:KILL. QUILFORD. WITH. FIRE. AND. TAMMY.

FOR FUCKS SAKE.


Hey Agar...why do you have two and only two suspects when there are three scum out there?


Because people are fucking dense right now.
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Post Post #1358 (isolation #51) » Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:02 pm

Post by AGar »

See, you're dense. It's not that I don't have other suspects.

It's I want you two motherfuckers dead right now and am 99.999% positive a scumflip comes out of the pair of you. We have an opportunity to lynch 2 people today, we take it.
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Post Post #1376 (isolation #52) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 6:52 am

Post by AGar »

Hmmm...

Yeah claiming might work.

Let me mull this over.
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Post Post #1377 (isolation #53) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 6:56 am

Post by AGar »

Ok yes, I'm pretty sure this is the right call, since Peta didn't jail anyone last night. Unless scum shot commexo and commexo is BP, this should explain for the single kill.

I'm Mr. Scattamun, The Freak Show Organizer.

I have a passive that I know my wife, Mrs. Scattamun, is in this game and is town. I don't know who she is, I have no means of communicating with her. Really don't see any point in her claiming today.
She and I "share" an active ability where I can submit two names each Recess, and if she chooses either of them, they will be blocked from using Actives and Factionals.

It now makes sense to see I targetted Quilford and MattP, now Tammy, last night. I can not confirm which of them were blocked, if either, but I feel strongly enough on these chances to push them both. I felt that with the daily double mechanic we got today, I could simply strongly push for the two of them to be lynched without needing to claim. I still say we have one kill the other but that's my opinion based on my information.
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Post Post #1379 (isolation #54) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 7:03 am

Post by AGar »

1. Yes
2. Shinori and Llamarble
3. I submit two names to Hito. My wording is if she submits the same name(s), the person is blocked, so I'm assuming she submits two names on her own as well.
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Post Post #1382 (isolation #55) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 7:27 am

Post by AGar »

I PMed the mod about claiming my two targets in thread before the night falls.

I wish for Mrs. Scattamun to remain unclaimed for the time being, I don't see the need to bring that out of the woodwork yet.

I will place the L-1 vote only when we have confirmation that Quilford will hammer Tammy. I do not want anything fucking this up and us only getting one of them (and possibly the wrong one) out of the lynch. She's at L-5 right now, and I'll be closely watching things to make sure this goes down properly.

Quilford, your ass better get in here soon.
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Post Post #1389 (isolation #56) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 8:04 am

Post by AGar »

In post 1388, Minimum wrote:3) if AGar blocked Llamarble, that means he didn't hide behind anyone! Why were there three deaths on N1?


Because I'm only half of the equation. I chose Shinori and Llamarble on Night 1. If Mrs. Scattamun didn't select either of them, then neither was blocked.
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Post Post #1397 (isolation #57) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 8:30 am

Post by AGar »

In post 1391, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
@AGar
- have you asked hito what would happen if you matched both names?


I have not, however my role PM specifies that I won't find out if my ability triggers on any or all of my targets in a manner which leads me to believe we could successfully block both targets.
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Post Post #1415 (isolation #58) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 1:40 pm

Post by AGar »

Tammy is at L-3, Gamma is correct.

Chamber, I get your line of thought, and if we didn't have this two-fer lynch today, I'd probably be pushing for Mrs. Scattamun to claim. But we have a 2-shot basically today, we're ahead a decent amount, and I don't really see the point in revealing both of the roles this early when I don't see anyone bringing up any other lynch options besides Bella, and I feel this is a better play at the moment. Like MoI said, this brings forth a confirmed town player in massclaim as long as we keep her under wraps and assuming I die before then.
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Post Post #1418 (isolation #59) » Tue Aug 14, 2012 1:44 pm

Post by AGar »

Tammy is at L-2. No one else vote for her. I will place the L-1 vote when and ONLY WHEN Quilford comes in here and agrees that he will hammer her.
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Post Post #1438 (isolation #60) » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:46 am

Post by AGar »

VOTE: Tammy

Quilford should hammer now.
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Post Post #1440 (isolation #61) » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:48 am

Post by AGar »

By the way, tonight will be Seraphim and RedCoyote as my submissions.
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Post Post #1448 (isolation #62) » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:24 pm

Post by AGar »

In post 1442, Minimum wrote:Um...guys?

Doesn't this plan mean that if he's scum, he just won't check in until the deadline, and we're forced to lynch Tammy? There's no plurality lynch at deadline, right? Or am I missing something?

(I also think Tammy will very likely flip town at this point--her compliance compared to Quilford's lurking is a towntell.)

Hmm...

Guys, let's try this.

VOTE: Bella

She's a wild card, I don't suspect AND her death will stop people from debating the 1 in 3. And yet I'm unsure enough on her that I believe there's a real chance the hammer will suicide.

Quilford, would you prefer to hammer Bella instead?

(Also...MoI, if you're planning on counterclaiming petapan as the guardian, you're getting auto-lynched unless you do it today.)


You either need to re-read the game or give me a good reason as to why Quilford/Tammy should not be the combo today given the information that i've given.

It's quite simple - if Quilford doesn't hammer today, he gets run up tomorrow, no questions asked. He's basically fucked either way as if he's Commexo, he's done, and if he's Night, well he gets another day but his faction is still down to 1 person after Day 4. That's a pretty good deal for town. If he's town, he should have no problems complying because Tammy is then most likely scum. Plus, if I die by way of this whole suicide-hammer thingy, Mrs. Scattamun just needs to lay unclaimed until WHAM BAM FUCK YOU SCUM I'M MOD-CONFIRMED TOWN time.
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Post Post #1450 (isolation #63) » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:43 pm

Post by AGar »

Hundi, Tammy is at L-1 now. Quilford came in and said he would hammer last page, so I placed the L-1 vote.
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #64) » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:47 pm

Post by AGar »

I didn't create the backup, Sword did. The plan is if before deadline Quilford goes MIA or w/e, we all unvote off of Tammy and don't revote and Tammy is senior vote on Quilford, so thus that lynch happens and Tammy dies if Quil-town.
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Post Post #2245 (isolation #65) » Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:56 pm

Post by AGar »

First, props Hito - this was a really fun game - shenanigans included. You have a hell of a way of crafting intriguing setups consistently. Hats off, because now I want to read these books.

In post 2194, hitogoroshi wrote:I don't know who I'd call town MVP in general, it's been so long I've forgotten how people's reads have went. But gamma is role MVP. Also teamwork props to AGar and SoO for getting a successful double roleblock off, although I think you two could have done more to covertly try to reach each other.


Phone it in as luck. I spent Days 1 & 2 trying to pick up on anything that might be a Scattamun crumb, but I am absolutely terrible at picking up on breadcrumbs to begin with, and then with a flavor foreign to me (I signed up only because I really was impressed with your setup from the original Abarat Mafia) it became 10x more difficult, so I gave up after that and simply hoped that Mrs. Scattamun would maybe pick up on me arbitrarily.
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