/Invitational 13: The battle of Yarmouk. Decisive victory!

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: DeathRowKitty

Feels like scum simulating the joviality of the RVS, not the real thing.

[Fishythefish]

OK

[Fishythefish]

You are.

[Fishythefish]

Two things. First, the exclamation mark in "There's an important difference!" sounds like it's trying hard to be light-hearted. And in the first post, he writes "Die. Scum. Die." all on different lines. Seems like some serious thought has gone into that formatting, and that's more likely from scum trying to write a jovial post, rather than town who would be more likely to just dash it off.

And no sarcasm, you're currently my top town read.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy puns are hilarious and original.

@chamber: well, which is it here? Are panzer's reasons bad, is his post off, or is there something else?

@kitty: what's wrong with panzer's post? To me, it really doesn't exude effort like DRK's.

At some point I'm going to accidentally vote for the wrong kitty here, so it's essential we get rid of one before LYLO.

[Fishythefish]

On the first sentence - sure. On the second, the reason I want you to elaborate is that I'd like to know why you are voting for panzer.

[Fishythefish]

Do my posts really "exude effort"? Jeez.

The exclamation mark was certainly a conscious choice - a conscious choice to mess with mykonian. Putting "Die. Scum. Die." on 3 lines was hardly more of a conscious choice than putting a period at the end of your average declarative sentence. My first post says what it means to say in the way it means to say it. That's all.

Yeah, the exclamation mark mod-messing explanation I'm certainly happy with. Other one seems like something that would require a very concious choice, but there's nothing left to say on it.

Dislike mith's 29, it's stretchy as hell. DRK's reply to me is answering a joke (though that may be stretching the term) about Kittys with a joke about usernames and Panzer's reasons. His vote for Kitty couldn't matter less, since noone is really advocating "lynch a kitty". His deadline lynch questions are slightly unusual, but why scummy? Acknowledging you have confirmation bias is a wonderful thing, but I struggle to believe mith has it this early on, on this sort of wagon. Doesn't feel real.

UNVOTE: DRK
VOTE: mith

@Katsuki: any thoughts that can't be expressed in vote form?

@myk:

do you require/prefer unvotes?

[Fishythefish]

On the deadline lynch: ok. I can see where you are coming from. I disagree - I think it's a rather tired scumtell that probably never worked well - but it's not a particularly scummy point to make.

How about the confirmation bias? Do you really think you are suffering from that in any significant way on page 2? That is totally alien to me - and I, like you, think that making early game cases as serious as possible is useful and fun.

[Fishythefish]

God I hate being accused of distancing. Any particular reason, Panzer?

@mith: thanks for that thorough answer. I'm happy with it.

UNVOTE: mith
VOTE: panzer

I'm with DRK on this one. Panzer thinks I'm distancing from mith, and the conclusion is to cheerlead for the wagon we've both been on.

[Fishythefish]

@Kitty: It makes me self-concious about my interactions with the player, and then I over-analyse what I should say (actually, this applies to all scum-scum links with alive players whose alignment I don't know). For example, I nearly changed my last post substantially because I was accused of distancing - I'm aware that it fits with distancing. It also gives me weird motivations to want mith not to be scum, because if he is I'm more likely to get lynched tomorrow. All in all, this hinders my scumhunting and stilts my interactions with the player I'm linked to - although probably not too much at all here, it being a really early and presumably weak link.

To be clear, none of that is saying that drawing links between alive players is wrong, or invalid scumhunting (though I do tend to think it's pretty useless before any flips). Just that I hate it.

[Fishythefish]

I'm not ready for this day to end.

UNVOTE: panzer
VOTE: mith

I was going to vote Kat in a pressure-the-lurker kind of way, but this post gives me a decently strong gut townread:

I'm quite satisfied with how this day has gone. I have other reads that lead to me to believe that panzer will most likely flip scum.

Just not really seeing that from scum.

People in the game:
- Panzer: hasn't done anything. His vote pretty directly contradicts the only opinion he's put out there, which is bad. Leaning scum.
- chamber: is being chamber. I can't read him at this stage.
- Rhinox: one substantial post, which makes a lot of sense. Leaning town, though I'm a sucker for people who call me town.
- mith: I don't really get the feeling mith's scumhunting here. He's saying a lot, but not really pressing on anything. He's qualified himself a few times (by bringing up confirmation bias, by weakening his read on KK), and sort-of-retracted some points in a way which emphasises that they were sensible in the first place (in response to me on DRK and DRK on DRK). Leaning scum.
- KK: decent posting. Hasn't done a great deal yet.
- Kat: as above, one post gives me a town read, otherwise a bit lurkery. Would like to hear her reasons for wanting panzer dead.
- Kitty: I dislike 62. It asks for no hammer while subtly saying "but quickhammers aren't too bad, so if anyone does hammer, that's ok". Feels like Kitty wants an early lynch, but doesn't want to be caught actually endorsing one. Leaning scum, though probably not with panzer.
- DRK: pretty happy with his posting. Leaning town.

@DRK: re: 55; I would like an explanation as to where your gut read on KK comes from.

[Fishythefish]

I meant this:

"KK: I like your posting so far, but I wouldn't go so far as to say I have a "strong" read on you - I don't believe I've played with you before, for one thing."

The bit after the dash weakens the read, and seems unnecessary - it's not really a big factor whether or not you've played with someone, and so it feels like an excuse not to commit.

[Fishythefish]

Why?

[Fishythefish]

And why do you think each of them is scum?

[Fishythefish]

@Kitty: then why say that "I feel like a quickhammer isn't nearly as detrimental as it would be under normal circumstances"? I get not unvoting to keep the pressure up, but if you are nervous about a quickhammer, why say anything that makes one more likely?

Still liking Kat here.

@KK: wait, so in post 46 you were saying you were ready to hammer despite it being page 2? I'm confused - I don't see how that fits with your next sentence. "But panzerjager needs to explain himself." sounds very much like you aren't going to hammer him.

[Fishythefish]

No

way

is scumChamber pulling this off. No scumbag says "the scum clearly have daytalk" - they're

never

confident enough that they know what town would think.

[Fishythefish]

No

way

is scumChamber pulling this off. No scumbag says "the scum clearly have daytalk" - they're

never

confident enough that they know what town would think.

I made this post while my brain was not in it's default state. I basically agree with the premise, but probably wouldn't have worded it quite so strongly myself.

@Rhinox: huh. As scum, I'm always terrified my extra information is shining through, so when I speculate about something the scum know and I don't have to it's a pretty massive towntell. Do you not find the same thing?

[Fishythefish]

@chamber: what do you think of mith?

[Fishythefish]

@Rhinox: huh. As scum, I'm always terrified my extra information is shining through, so when I speculate about something the scum know and I don't have to it's a pretty massive towntell. Do you not find the same thing?

Not really. In my experience, scum are pretty good at faking town slips like not being aware of daytalk. Last time I was scum it was actually a primary goal of mine to try to fake towntells or do something to make town say "scum would never do that." Very rarely do scum actually slip inside information. I've seen more town players lynched for scumslips than actual scum. As for me specifically, no I'm not usually worried about my inside information being transparent when I'm scum. The rest of my scum play is transparent enough

Well, it turns out not everyone is me. On reflection, that was probably guessable. I'll downgrade my townread on chamber accordingly.

I'll make a real post a bit later, when I've summoned up the energy to think.

[Fishythefish]

@panzer:
1) Why did you originally think that mith and I looked like scum together? Even if it was just a hunch, can you explain it a bit?
2) Why were you happy voting DRK, when you thought mith and I were scum? Do you often vote randomly early on, even when you have opinions?
3) What changed your mind about me being scum?
4) Why is mith scum?
5) Anything else you want to say about anything at all? It's always good to know what people are thinking.

[Fishythefish]

@panzer:
1) Why did you originally think that mith and I looked like scum together? Even if it was just a hunch, can you explain it a bit?
2) Why were you happy voting DRK, when you thought mith and I were scum? Do you often vote randomly early on, even when you have opinions?
3) What changed your mind about me being scum?
4) Why is mith scum?
5) Anything else you want to say about anything at all? It's always good to know what people are thinking.

1) nope
2) Fuck DRK and Yup
3) Just the way you post. Play on gut
4) cause he's scummy.
5) That Mith and DRK are possibly scum together. Katsuki can't read me. Chamber is def town

So, panzer's reads/votes strike me as making sense for scum.

- RV on DRK. Well, makes sense for anyone.
- Linking two people who'd been on DRK's wagon. If panzer was actually thinking about things, he'd be unlikely to make this link, and if he did he'd be unlikely to be happy with his DRK vote.
- Move off me. This happened when mith's wagon started building, and I continued to post a fair bit with no criticism at all. Makes sense for scum wanting to jump on mith and not have to go after someone who looks hard to go after.
- Linking DRK and mith - this throws muck at his rival wagonee and someone on his wagon. There's no real reason for it that I can see, except that DRK said mith wasn't scummy and is going after panzer.
- Chamber is def town - I think that's obvious pandering to me. I'm clearly torn between the wagons - I've been on both, only unvoted panzer because of L-1, and now I'm asking him to explain stuff. I've said that chamber is definitely town (though I've now walked that back).

UNVOTE: mith
VOTE: panzer

All panzer's done makes sense for scum. None of it is conclusive, and even all together he could be an unlucky townie whose opinions happen to coincide well with what scum would want to do (or an incompetent townie who values self-preservation to the point that he looks like a scumbag). But if he won't explain his reasons, there's no way of telling, and that just makes panzer a scummy player who is unlikely to get any easier to read.

That takes mith to L-2, panzer to L-1.

[Fishythefish]

Feels weird not have a few days to ruminate post-flip. AFAIC panzer being town doesn't tell us too. If anything, mith is slightly more likely town - because he went from 0 to L-1 while panzer's wagon stagnated, and if scummith were in danger you would think scum would be more likely to give the panzerwagon a little shove.

Why KK, chamber?

VOTE: Kitty
Before her ongoing LA, I don't like her posting much. 62 still gives me a bad feeling, and she just gives me a vibe of not wanting to stir anything up. There's also an element of sort-of-PoE about it; I have mild to moderate townreads on the rest of the panzer wagon, and it seems fairly probable there were 1 or 2 scum on it (more so than a random 5 player group).

[Fishythefish]

Not complaining (and also not scum), but your analysis only means I'm unlikely to be scum with mith, right?

Yeah, looking harder at day 1 I think I agree my "panzer wagon stalled" analysis doesn't stand up to scrutiny. There just aren't many players who could have jumped on panzer if scum with mith and didn't; Rhinox had started the mith charge and mostly ruled out panzer, the kitties and chamber where already there, and Kat

did

switch back (as did I, though that's not relevant to me).

Why do you think KK is town?

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: since it's not clear in the above, I now don't really see that the paired wagons say much about mith at all.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and I forgot to say: it's in the rules that there are 3 scum. Sorry for triple post.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy: Any thoughts on chamber's continued lack of reasoning for his vote? On rereading page 1 I find it odd that you initially questioned him about this and have since let it slide.

Sorry, missed/forgot about this. chamber not giving reasons for things is annoying, but not a scumtell for him based on my (slightly hazy, but I think reliable enough) memory of his meta. When he didn't answer me, I didn't really have anything more to say on the matter, and it wasn't worthy of a vote.

[Fishythefish]

Only thing that worries me about you is I think this post is now the second time you hit me with pandering/flattery, first example being here where you went from "no way is chamber scum" to "I'll downgrade my townread" just because I (and only me) didn't agree with you.

Well, that first example isn't really me changing my mind because you disagreeing with me - it's more that I just realised that something that would be a good towntell for me isn't necessarily one for everyone. The second example - someone I think is sensible and likely town disagreed with me strongly, so I revisited my opinion (which tbh I hadn't thought about hard enough first time round - I was extrapolating from larger games in a way that doesn't work).

[Fishythefish]

I want to have an opinion on chamber/mith, but I just can't muster one up. It looks more like a clash of playstyles than something correlated with alignment.

I'm tempted to move my vote because of the lack of company, but I don't think that's a good idea. The complete lack of interest in my wagon makes me think I'm actually more likely to be on to something.

@Everyone who hasn't answered this recently: what do you think of Kitty?

[Fishythefish]

@KK: you listed panzer on your latest list of reads, despite him being dead. Obviously this was a mistake, but can you explain how it came about?

[Fishythefish]

This is a just a "promise activity to spur myself on" post.

Struggling with this game right now. I need to stand back and have a good read and think - this will get done today or tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

OK. Reading people who have votes on them first:

- DRK. I'm getting a strongish town read off his posting. He makes a lot of sense, but there's something else; the posting just feels natural, like he's saying what he thinks without lots of editing. Looking at the KK case (or things KK said; not quite sure what is supposed to be a scumtell):
a) DRK was against a mith lynch, saying that the case against him was playstyle differences. Could possibly be a weak DRK-mith link, but not scummy.
b) DRK thought scum wouldn't be able to communicate/didn't know. Don't see how this is something scum would pretend.
c) Scumread on KK is "trumped up". I really don't get that from DRK's posting. I see a push on KK based mostly on his questioning of mith being a bit weird/useless.

- KK. I'm torn here. I very much agree with DRK's summary of the mith questioning here. It's perhaps mildly scummy because mith was sat at L-1, and scum might have wanted to find reasons to vote for him. But it doesn't feel to me like KK's questions are not intended to go anywhere (which is DRK's other point). Read 116 without really thinking about the content. It strikes me as a post from someone who thinks they've got a pretty neat case - not someone who's asking questions so it looks like they're doing something.
His push on DRK I find positively townish. It reads like KK is convincing himself that DRK is scum, in a way that only town can really do.

- mith. Can still easily see him being scum - he hasn't done anything that makes me think he's really looking for scum. But nothing specific I dislike.

- Kat. I see his "mith and panzer" idea as the kind of complicated conspiracy that scum don't really make up. His D1 line was "I thought panzer and mith were scum together, but mith wouldn't be lynchable until panzer was gone, so I voted for panzer until mith wagon started". I thik that's the kind of corkscrew thinking town can get themselves into, but scum don't fake.

@Kat: what did you mean by "Sigh" in post 142? When you were voting panzer, and thought mith was scum with him, why didn't you mention your scumread on mith?

- Kitty. Nothing's changed recently; her last post doesn't say much, and nothing controversial. She still has a post I don't like and has been playing it far too safe for my liking. I know she has LA and is ill, which makes me feel kind of mean, but she's my top scum read.

Other people:
- Rhinox - there's something I want to say about Rhinox, but I don't want to say it yet. Prod me for it in a few days.
- chamber - not much to say. His 175 looks honest, but it could probably be his honest thoughts about the right way to play even if he's currently scum.

[Fishythefish]

@Kat: what did you mean by "Sigh" in post 142? When you were voting panzer, and thought mith was scum with him, why didn't you mention your scumread on mith?

When? Do you mean originally? I didn't express it then because I'm very weak as a town player, and while my reads are more often than not right, I'm generally unable to get my scumreads lynched. Especially in a game of this playerbase, I wanted to get panzer lynched, then be able to hammer mith lynch through D2 as there is no way I could stand toe to toe with mith D1.

tl;dr, I'd easily lose 1v1 with any scum in this game as my argumentative and language skills are very weak.


Also regarding reads, my panzer read was based off of my mith scum read + the things others were pointing out about panzers actions eg. the cheerleading on DRK. Mith was always the stronger scumread, I thought he was doing something I caught him doing in another game where he was scum.

Oh and the sigh was that this game is apparently not the easymode I thought it would be (aka easy mith panzer).

I'm happy with these answers. mith, what do you think of them?

[Fishythefish]

The "complicated conspiracy" isn't just mith/panzer; it's Kat's line of reasoning that has him thinking you two are scum together, but voting panzer because panzer is the lynchable one.

Reading Kat's ISO, I see Kat switching from panzer to you when a wagon on you built. His justification was that he thought you were scum together, and that you weren't lynchable. That's just not the kind of thing I think opportunistic scum make up - why not just say you are scummy? "I was too chicken to vote for him before" is not something that's going to help lynch you, earn town points, make the switch easy,

anything

scum usually want to do there.

Kat not voting panzer is a red herring; he as good as voted (expressed intent to hammer at L-1).

[Fishythefish]

Dashed that off in haste, missed this:

"followed by you switching from DRK to me, followed by Katsuki responding to you without a vote change"

want to have another look at that bit, will do so tomorrow morning.

[Fishythefish]

He did give that explanation yesterday - in 70 he voted you and said "Wonderful, didn't see this happening.". In 72, he explained this with "I thought we had to get through panzer first before getting this.". That's pretty clearly saying he thinks you and panzer are both scum, and wouldn't be able to lynch you. The explanation today fleshes out what was already out there.

Yep, I can see that there may be reason to stop talking about some this until Kat answers your 211. This includes something I want to say. OTOH deadline isn't

that

far away, which is why I'm still talking.

Oh, and on coaching; if I see an attack I disagree with on somebody I'm leaning town on, I'm often going to counter it and/or ask questions to get them to say the right thing (the latter was most of the reason I asked Kat questions in 201 - I was nearly sure I knew what he was going to say on the important one). Particularly if I think there's a good chance they are going to make a hash of it for reasons which have nothing to do with alignment.

[Fishythefish]

@chamber: Duly noted.

[Fishythefish]

So, here's why you should all vote for Kitty:

1. We're drifting towards a mislynch

Currently, the town is split. Noone has more than 2 votes, and we're only a couple of days out from deadline. With that being the case, and there being a large proportion of scum in the game, we're not going to lynch scum. People are going to move their votes around to get a least bad lynch. Some of these people will be town, but one or two will be scum. They probably won't end up voting for scum, and we'll have a mislynch. It will look random and messy, and it will be hard or impossible to tell who the scum were.

2. We need a town led lynch

Right now, the best thing we can do is try to be sure that scum aren't controlling the lynch. One way to do this is randomness, but that's no fun and nobody would agree to it anyway. The other way is for a townie to convince other people who is scum; clearly, we've failed at this. The final solution is simple; you pick someone to follow.

3. I'm the person to lead the lynch

To get a town led lynch in this situation the town has to trust someone, and I'm the obvious person. Nobody thinks I'm scummy. Several people think I'm town. I think those of you who know me respect the way I play the game.

4. To sweeten the deal, Kitty is probably scum...

Before she had LA, she really looked like someone avoiding attention and conflict. Her 62 smells like scum trying to egg on an early lynch without looking bad for doing so. And if Rhinox is town (which seems likely) we've got a wagon sitting there with two respected townies who post a lot. Why aren't the scum all over it? Because they don't like lynching scum.

5. ...but

doesn't matter

if she's not your top scumread

I'm not asking you to agree with me that Kitty is the mostly likely scumbag in the game - I'm just asking you to vote for her. The point is that if you are right in your suspicion of Kat/DRK/KK/whoever, you aren't going to get the lynch - the scum aren't going to let you. If you are wrong, you might well get the lynch. By far our best chance of avoiding this trap is rallying to this town-led wagon.

So, if you think I'm likely town come and join Kitty wagon. I can't promise you she's scum, though I think the odds are good. I can promise that the scum aren't controlling our lynch, and if you don't join me they definitely are.

[Fishythefish]

My posts were affected by the time problem on the server - my last two posts were before KK or mith voted. I've also been unable to post since then (because the forum thinks my last post was in the future, so it won't let me post).

@mith: my post is a bit dramatic, but I think it's pretty much true and needs saying to try to get a lynch without a last minute scramble scum are controlling.

[Fishythefish]

That wall post is pretty good, and I want to see KK's response.

[Fishythefish]

Your inactivity is probably excusable, given you're not in the game.

[Fishythefish]

I was assuming deadline was today, because the day started 2 weeks ago and that's how long day 1 was. But actually it wasn't announced, so idk.

[Fishythefish]

@Kat: a rough town to scum list for me goes:
DRK
Rhinox
Kat
KK
chamber
mith
Kitty
I think there's a good chance that there are 2 scum in the bottom 3 there. I can't say I have any massively strong scumreads; I'm mostly working through PoE, and so my scumlist consists of people who don't look particularly town and have maybe made one or two posts that rub me the wrong way.

You should come and hammer Kitty. Then when she flips scum we should lynch mith together tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Just checking in to say I'm around. I haven't been doing much recently because I'm happy that we're getting a kitty lynch, and don't feel there's anything I want to do until it happens.

[Fishythefish]

Huzzah!

Looking at yesterday, Rhinox massively didn't have to vote Kitty - I was getting no support, and he had other natural directions (notably mith). His fairly passive, "I'd better have a vote down and fishy looks town" vote isn't that of scum trying to get hundreds of town points for bussing.

KK's vote for Kitty is awesome. He listed her solidly in the middle of his reads a page earlier, and never said anything at any point that implies she is scum. When I made my "follow me or lose" post, he hopped straight onto the Kitty wagon. My post was a weird one you don't normally see, and the reaction to it was very unpredictable (I certainly had no idea what would happen). I would really think scum would want to see what was happening before jumping on the wagon. Particularly in KK's position; KKscum could easily have plumped for mith rather than Kitty. And again, it really doesn't look like KK is trying to look town by bussing; he does nothing to push the lynch except the important bit with the voting.

I'd peg mith as by far the mostly likely busser. He voted Kitty last, and arguably by then she looked in some trouble. However, even mith looks reasonably good here - he committed to Kitty over the other viable non-mith wagon (KK) much earlier in day 2.

So. I think the wagon is pretty full of townie goodness. I'd guess it's at worst 3-1 town-scum, with a solid chance of being all town. I'm not looking to lynch on it today.

Kat looks pretty bad with the flip. He never commented on Kitty after his random vote, including when I asked for everyone's opinions and when I urged him personally to hammer (though to be fair he didn't post at all after that). chamber and DRK both pushed the KK counterwagon, which scum obviously had an interest in doing. On other things, my gut is still telling me DRK is town, and I still think Kat's day 1 panzer-mith thing is unlikely from scum, but I could be wrong on either.

All in all, it's a

VOTE: chamber.

He's the only player I have no reason at all to think is town. He was on the wrong wagon yesterday. Could well be scum.

Some questions for people:

@DRK: what do you feel about KK's vote on Kitty yesterday? Is it a likely play from scum?
@Kat: did you see my post 260 yesterday?
@chamber: in 263, you said you felt exactly one of DRK and KK were scum. Why not neither? (Yeah, I know you've already decided not to answer that. But I need an answer to get a better read on you, and if I don't get a better read on you I want you dead.)

[Fishythefish]

@DRK: How was the mith-wagon a no-go? That sounds more like the words of someone who wants to say KK is scum than someone who is looking at the game. Here was the votecount:

Initially, Vahan's plan seemed succesful. Both Muslim wings were pushed back by the unstoppable Roman legions, but were not broken. Could they push back in time to protect their pinned down center?

votecount

Kublai Kahn (2): chamber, deathrowkitty
mith (2): KittyMo, katsuki
KittyMo (2): Fishythefish, Rhinox
Katsuki (1): mith
DeathRowKitty (1): Kublai Kahn

not voting (0):

KK had previously pushed a mith wagon D1, and listed mith (just) above Kitty in a scumlist day 2. On the more general climate, there was no serious pro-mith feeling around.

Granted, there was no obvious route to a mith lynch. But the same was true of anybody else in the game. You make it sound like the day had come down to KK vs Kitty, and that's not close to the truth.

@chamber: ok, just seemed an odd way to put things. Why did you think each of them was scum? From your posting, I *think* you agree with Rhinox that DRK's case was overblown rhetorically, but I'm not sure why you thought KK was scum.

[Fishythefish]

Chamber had mentioned not finding mith scummy, I never showed much interest in voting mith, mith obviously wasn't voting mith. That leaves just you and Rhinox that could possibly push through a mith wagon and you were both on the KittyMo otherwagon.

You could essentially have made this post about any of the three wagons:
"Fishy and Rhinox had mentioned not finding KK scummy, KK obviously wasn't voting KK. That just leaves KittyMo and katsuki that could possibly push through a KK wagon and they were both on the KittyMo otherwagon."
"chamber had mentioned finding Kitty town, Katsuki never showed much interest in voting KittyMo, Kitty obviously wasn't voting Kitty. That just leaves DRK and mith who could possibly push through a Kitty wagon, and they were both on other wagons."

The top 3 wagons (KK, mith, Kitty) all had 2 voters, a person or two who was not at all interested, and a few people who didn't have strong feelingse. Sure, chamber, you, Rhinox and I all preferred other wagons, but in a deadline scramble, or just after things changed, any of us might well have switched to mith. I don't see how you can look at the state of play at post 200 and say that mith was never going to get lynched; I think at that stage every vote one way or another was really important.

[Fishythefish]

The KK and KittyMo wagons both had people that could realistically have made the jump. At most, the mith wagon could have gotten Rhinox. You'd just made a big deal about how we needed to settle on a wagon and that that wagon was KittyMo and no one else could reasonably have been expected to go for it.

In the case of KK, both KittyMo and Katsuki were wild cards - neither of them had been around to have given an opinion on the wagon and either or both could plausibly have joined. mith voted KittyMo over KK but seemed likely to go for KK if KittyMo and Katsuki lynches weren't possible.

In the case of KittyMo, there was the possibility of Katuki and mith, one of which did materialize.

Unless KK was going to out-of-nowhere try to get you to convert to mith after you'd just made a big point of KittyMo being the best deadline lynch, the mith wagon was simply not a possibility.

Two things about this exchange:

1. This argument makes me feel DRK is town. The beginning of today was an excellent opportunity for scumDRK to walk back his scumread on KK - it's now unpopular, and there's a good reason to change your mind (the Kitty flip). The fact that DRK isn't doing that, and is arguing against my KK-is-town point, seems to be totally unmotivated for a scumbag.

2. On the substance - if KK votes mith we might well get near deadline looking like this:

mith: KittyMo, katsuki, Kublai Khan
KittyMo: Fishythefish, Rhinox, mith
Kublai Khan: chamber, deathrowkitty

What's going to happen? If KK is scum, Kitty's not likely to be moving. You're fixed on KK, and I've just made a great big speech, so I'm going to be ranting on about KK. The reasonably likely moves would be:

Rhinox -> mith
Kat -> either
mith -> KK
chamber -> mith

Looks to me like any of the wagons could collapse. If it came down to two wagons, here's the best guess for mith vs Kitty:

mith: KittyMo, katsuki, Kublai Khan, chamber
KittyMo: Fishythefish, Rhinox, mith

with DRK unguessable. If it came down to mith vs KK:

mith: KittyMo, katsuki, Kublai Khan, fishy, Rhinox
KK: chamber, DRK, mith

So. I think the day could easily have ended up in a 3-way messy impasse, or with any 2 of the three wagons fighting it out. In either of the matchups, mith looks pretty likely to be lynched. All in all, KK voting mith would definitely have made a mith lynch a real possibility.

[Fishythefish]

Pretty much in agreement with Fishy's argument on KK. He could have voted for me, and instead voted for scum. The only significant scenario I can see him doing that in is if he's scum with Katsuki and didn't want to have all three scum on my wagon.

Yeah, this makes sense - if Kat is scum KK becomes pretty likely again.

[Fishythefish]

I'm here, without much to say. I've seen nothing to make me change my fairly settled opinions on who is likely scum, and I'm happy for chamber to be lynched.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry I owe this game much more than what I've been able to provide thus far.

Skimmed this page, chamber why that question?
Also it's D3 already. Why no awesomeness yet?

My substance is that mith is scum. Not much I know but it's something~

Why is mith scum? How have your views on the game been altered by the scumflip?

[Fishythefish]

On one hand, I'm kinda glad this game is going so slowly, because my week has been rough and I don't know if I would have the energy to catch up on a more active game. On the other hand, this game is dragging horribly, shame on us.

Katsuki lynch is looking really unlikely right now. I may feel really stupid about this later, but my gut read on chamber today is town. So, counter-wagons, ho!

UNVOTE: Katsuki
VOTE: DeathRowKitty

Eh. I get the town chamber read, but if chamber is scum his one and only priority today is looking town, and I reckon he's good enough scum to give these sorts of town vibes.

Waiting for Kat to respond to 316. Could see myself voting Kat today, won't be voting DRK (or anyone else who isn't chamber).

[Fishythefish]

Fishy, if chamber is scum, what's your opinion on mith's voting record today? I have an answer in mind, but I'm not going to give it yet for bias reasons

Well, obviously if chamber is scum then mith is campaigning against a scum lynch today. But that doesn't seem an obvious scum play to me - if there was ever a time for bussing, this is it. The way things are going, it's pretty unlikely chamber is making it until endgame (4 left, say), and pretty likely that mith is. Scum-mith would rather get behind a chamber lynch, so long as he thought that was the best way to get townpoints.

So. I don't think scum-mith would particularly feel the need to protect scum-chamber; he'd probably just be trying to look town. As for town-mith, I can easily believe he'd be voting like this; a gut town read on chamber's recent play is completely plausible.

[Fishythefish]

That seems wildly optimistic.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Katsuki

A week and a half since a scumflip, and Kat hasn't reread in light of it. Smells like Kat's trying to keep his head down, because he's a possible lynch but at the moment we're going the other way.

[Fishythefish]

OK. Hopefully you can find the time to read at some point - if not I'm happy to lynch you. Also, good luck with the exams.

[Fishythefish]

I'm away from now until next Monday. Access may be patchy, but I anticipate getting on daily.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry for inactivity (surprised I wasn't prodded) - haven't had access since I last posted. Doesn't look like I missed much.

@chamber: why KK?

[Fishythefish]

Not keen on the possibility of a last minute KK lynch. Might not get on again before deadline. A chamber lynch will do.
VOTE: chamber

[Fishythefish]

Boo.

VOTE: Katsuki

Kat cruised through Day 3, not doing anything because neither he nor his scumpartner was the number 1 lynch choice. He provided no content until I called him on it (and, to be fair, his exams ended). Then he made odd little prods at mith, and asked about townreads on him. Unlike anyone else in the game, as far as you can tell from the thread he hasn't even

noticed

that we lynched scum. This guy is not playing like a townie.

We're lynching Kat today. I'm not moving my vote. Spare yourselves two weeks of us not really doing anything and vote him with me now.

[Fishythefish]

Have you got links for that meta? Would be good to see if you think it's significant.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy's turn.

Nothing struck me at the time. Looking now, his last content post (324) makes sense through the distorting lens of KK-is-scum. 341 promises content. 361 (post-hammer) has the line "I don't think anything I would have done would have made anything turn out differently today anyway". This jars when 4 posts earlier the votecount was 2-2-2. Makes it feel a little like DRK knows we've mislynched and is excusing his part in it. But I'm stretching, I don't really see anything of interest in DRK's late day 3. In the sort of day we were having, the lurk makes sense from town or scum.

Need to think about this self-vote. In my experience, it's an annoyingly good towntell, but these aren't quite the rather emotional circumstances you normally have.

[Fishythefish]

"Makes it feel a little like DRK knows we've mislynched and is excusing his part in it." - This, exactly.

Coupled with Rhinox's stance on Katsuki and DRK yesterday vs. how he has come out today (#367 in particular), and that possible pairing is giving me pause.

I think Katsuki/DRK is probably still the most likely case, but I'd rather lynch DRK at this point.

VOTE: DeathRowKitty

I think there's a good town explanation. Also feels a little like DRK know we've had a crap day of inactivity and is excusing his part in it.

The lynch here is between Kat and DRK. Individually, DRK reads as town to me and Kat a bit scummy. Looking at their potential partners:

- I see no reason they can't be scum with each other.
- DRK isn't scum with me, KK, or (given recent posting) probably mith.
- Kat isn't scum with me, and unlikely with mith (because of their interactions).
That leaves DRK/Kat, either/Rhinox, Kat/KK. I agree that from today, Rhinox/DRK looks more likely out of Rhinox pairings. Kat/KK makes some sense as well - they've hardly interacted all game.

That makes me happy with Kat. I think he's the scummier of the potential lynches, and they both have about the same number of potential partners.

I don't think the self-vote is a good towntell here. Particularly if DRK is also scum, scumKat might be rather desperate, and so an unusual move that

could

be read as town by a key player or two would make sense.

[Fishythefish]

Anything in particular?

[Fishythefish]

@mith: I'll have a thorough iso of DRK when I get a chance, and try to pick out what I feel is town. His posting seeming genuine/un-edited is a good summary. It's not an immensely strong townread, though.

I agree DRK/Rhinox fits today OK, but Rhinox-scum is looking to win this game solo, so I expect DRK/Rhinox and Kat/Rhinox to be mostly indistinguishable. But actually, I don't put any weight on either - in both cases Rhinox saved this town from near certain death. Look at this votecount from day 2:

Vahan's plan was to put pressure on the muslim wings, while threatening to attack the muslims center. This would make that the center could not help out it's wings, while if the wings were to be pushed back, the center of the muslim line would get isolated.

votecount

Kublai Kahn (2): chamber, deathrowkitty
mith (2): KittyMo, katsuki
chamber (1): mith
KittyMo (1): Fishythefish

not voting (2): Kublai Kahn, Rhinox

If Rhinox/DRK or Rhinox/Kat, we have exactly one scumvote, and zero support for that wagon. Given Rhinox's posting, noone would question a vote for mith. If Rhinox doesn't vote Kitty, we don't lynch her, and we don't win.

No. Rhinox isn't scum with DRK or Kat. You are also a poor scumpartner for either; it doesn't explain your bus on Day 2, and your interactions with them don't look like scum/scum. DRK/KK is fairly unlikely, but not impossible - it could be that the tunnelling argument is entirely a scum conspiracy. That leaves DRK/Kat and Kat/KK, or the megabus options. Looking at those:

- Rhinox/mith makes Rhinox's day 2 only a little more sensible. Now his Kitty-hop makes perfect sense; he was backed into a corner by his positions, and had to vote a scumpartner. But why on earth is he backed into that corner? It seems very unlikely that Rhinox-scum would list his buddies as the top scumbags when there are 3 scum left out of 8.
- Rhinox/KK makes a little more sense. It's still weird Rhinox plumped for Kitty over mith, but a bit less so; he might have been worried that KK was going down either way.
- KK/mith actually looks quite good. It would explain the main reason mith's vote doesn't look very bussy, which is this post just after Rhinox's vote had put Kitty back on the menu:

I would vote for Kitty over KK at this point. Very happy with my vote on Katsuki though, after rereading the last couple pages.

This positioning is weird from mithscum - but not if KK is also scum. That just leaves KK as bussy. And with Rhinox and I on the Kitty wagon, and with me making my "follow me or die" post, it's not implausible that KK decided to bus.

So. In order of likelihood, I'm thinking something like:
Kat/DRK >> Kat/KK , mith/KK, DRK/KK >> Rhinox/KK

Interestingly, that means that today's lynch is either Kat or DRK, and if that's a townflip tomorrow's is KK; he has a surprising wealth of potential scumbuddies. I need to stare harder at (Kat or DRK)/mith, which I've only done sketchily so far; whichever of Kat and DRK is a better buddy for mith should be today's lynch.

UNVOTE:

@KK: why Kat?

Kat's pressing town buttons recently, which is annoying. First he analysed his own scumplay, which in my experience is much more common from town, and now he's walking back his townreads when he needs all the help he can get.

[Fishythefish]

AAAAHHH. fn+f5 turns the brightness up, but ctrl+f5 just refreshes and loses your post. TWICE. I'm an idiot. Well, it's getting faster to type each time at least.

Fishy, why do you feel DRK is town?

Because #397 is entirely too many wishy washy words regarding katsuki and is the type of post I used to get nailed on all the time when scum.

So, I can't help much with my townread on DRK beyond what I've already said. It feels like we are getting his unedited thoughts, and that seems townish. Quotes don't help much, because it's more than one post, but here's a good example:

Okay, so....

Vote: Kublai Khan

I still don't like him. His posts, that is. Having seen his line of questioning on mith reach its climax at this, I don't even know what the point of his questioning was supposed to be. His final post in his line of questioning looks like a first post I would expect someone to make on a topic and his entire line of questioning just looks like a way to make it look like he was trying to appear useful without doing anything.



Interestingly enough, KittyMo's 62 was something I didn't like on reread (without having read your post first). Non-forum experience tells me that I'm terrible at reading her, but etc


Chamber seemed more town on reread, fishy still seems town, no idea on katsuki, rhinox slightly town, didn't really change mith.

And that is DRK's mind in 15 seconds.

I really, really believe that last line. It feels like DRK has sat down, gathered his thoughts, and typed this up, with the whole process taking no more than a few minutes. And from my experience, that precisely describes me as town on a good day, when I'm on top of the game and I'm not making a big, thinky post. And it never, ever describes me as scum. I

think

this goes for people in general - as scum, remembering your old fake opinions and thinking up new ones takes too much effort to make this type of post easily.

On actual content, I don't see anything that actually makes me think DRK is town, but not much that makes me think he's scum either. Looking at this from mith:

Our main difference though is your DRK town read. You mentioned earlier in the game that his posting felt genuine/un-edited... to me it reads disconnected and disinterested in catching the scums. See also: #312 + #361 ("imma stay off this townie-wagon and act dumb about it"/mea culpa for not doing something to stop it), a variety of excuses and fence-sitting (end of #324, #361 again, with the odd "teach me about this game" comment, #381/#385 today)... apart from his doggedly sticking to KK through days 2 and 3, and lightly defending me (when it looked like I was going to be lynched anyway day 1) and chamber (when it looked like he was going to be lynched anyway day 3), I'm not seeing much in the way of solid reads or analysis.

Disconnected - a bit, not much of a scumtell AFAIC. Disinterested in catching scum? I don't see that - his posting on panzer day 1 makes sense, and so does his posting on KK day 2/3, even if it's rather tunnelly. On 312, I see how that could be "I need to say something about this wagon, but can't think what, so here's some fluff". 361 we've talked about; I see the scum thinking behind it, but also just see the town-who's-been-lurking explanation. End of 324 is fence sitting, but it's entirely admitted - DRK says "My other reads are kind of blurred out and I'd rather not explain them because...because.". I don't think fence sitting and blatantly owning up to it is particularly scummy. "Teach me about this game" comment is weird, but I don't see the scum motivation. 381/385 is excusing lurking, and then agreeing with your assessment of 361. I don't see why that's unlikely at all from town.

So. I don't see any of that as unlikely from DRKtown, and don't think there's an egregious lack of scumhunting.

---

Fishy: This is a minor point, but between the vote count you posted and Rhinox's vote, I voted for Katsuki and KK voted for DRK.

I do largely agree that Rhinox voting for Kitty Mo at that point looks solidly town, but I don't agree that it's an absolute no-go even in the Rhinox/DRK or Rhinox/Katsuki cases. The latter is actually the easier case to make, because I've already made it (re: KK/Katsuki): Rhinox voting for me at that point would have put all three scum on my wagon. But for Rhinox/DRK, I could certainly see him thinking "I'm going to distance some for now, and then switch to a mith lynch as we approach deadline"... only he got stuck by your post + KK and I both jumping on.

(I also disagree that those two options are "mostly indistinguishable" from his behavior today; in fact, this argument seems inconsistent to me with the previous day 2 argument - you seem to be saying that Rhinox-scum would have ignored low-risk distancing to go for the "easy" town lynch and chance at a flawless win the next day, but now would be ignoring the possibility of his partner surviving to set up for the solo win. You gave a scenario for Rhinox/partner surviving yourself: wrong lynch today + KK lynch tomorrow. The alarm bells are ringing so loudly for Rhinox/DRK because of the change in Rhinox's stance from yesterday - "don't see me voting outside of chamber, DRK, or mith today", "my next choice would be DRK" - to today; I think there's a relatively good chance that Rhinox saw your post + my voting yesterday and thought "easy-mode Katsuki lynch, and then I can get mith or KK lynched tomorrow with Fishy's DRK-town read", whereas if it were Rhinox/Katsuki I think he would have jumped on the chance I gave him to go after DRK.)

Happy with my vote - DRK's recent posting is more of the same (re: my #390).

Huh. Surprised I missed those votes. They don't make too much difference though - Rhinox's vote was still a big deal.

I think there's a big difference between day 2 and later. On day 2, the scum were in an awesome place. At 5-3, with the town all over the place, it didn't look evenly slightly like they were going to have to bus. I guess it's possible he'd think the wagon was no real danger to Kitty, but I really think Rhinoxscum wouldn't be trying to pick up distancing points, he would be trying to win - the scumlynch seriously damaged the scum. Maybe I'm being a bit arrogant, but I also tend to think Rhinoxscum wouldn't have taken my Kitty vote all that lightly.

On the other hand, now (and yesterday) Rhinox is hugely town, and his partner (if DRK or Kat) looks unlikely to make the endgame. Sure, they might both survive, but much the more likely scum win is Rhinox; why endanger himself by flipping on DRK? I guess the answer is "he was greedy and wanted a faster win", but it would be rather clumsy.

I suppose the "not all scum on one wagon" makes Kat/Rhinox a little more likely. Can't say it's the kind of thing I think scum actually think about very much. And yeah, today would be very unlikely if it was Kat/Rhinox.

---

VOTE: Kat

In the worst case, I want this game going down to a Rhinox/mith/fishy endgame (though I'm very hopeful we'll have won before that). So I'm worried about who Rhinox and mith could be scum with. I put much more weight on KK/mith and Kat/mith than any of the other pairs; given today, mith/DRK would be weird, and as I've said I really don't think Rhinox is scum. So I don't want Kat or KK in the last 4 players.

[Fishythefish]

Not liking fishy as much today because his progression of reads especially on me don't make nearly as much sense as rhino. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he were playing a hell of a scumgame.

I think a fair summary of my play today is "Suddenly started almost exclusively pair-hunting. Changed reads, and went back on firm looking promises like 'I'm never moving my vote off Kat'. Chained lynches."

I'm not an idiot. I know that this slightly odd play has the potential to undermine townreads on me. At the end of the day, it's made only a very small difference to who I want lynched - I'm still voting you. As scum, what on earth would my motivation for my play today be?

For an explanation of why my reads have changed, I've been thinking about pairs - because it's late enough in the game that we can think about them all and pretty much plan what we should be doing for the rest of the game. My reads on people in isolation really haven't changed much at all, but who can be scum with who has changed my mind on what we should be doing (and in particular, KK's surprising abundance of potential scumpartners has been making me think I don't want him in endgame).

@mith: I don't think we've got much more to say to each other. Our main disagreement seems to be about how much better off the scum (even scumRhinox) would be if they'd lynched town Day 2. And also, for obvious reasons, about whether mith/X scum pairings are more important than Rhinox/X pairings.

[Fishythefish]

I'm more confident in my pair-hunting than my individual reads here. It's not so much looking for links as for pairs who still make sense. There are a lot of pairs that look very unlikely here, and my individual reads aren't that strong, at least at the scummy end of the scale.

[Fishythefish]

I'm on V/LA from tomorrow (Weds 17th) until Monday 22nd

Hopefully I'll be able to post occasionally, but possibly not.

My thoughts are fairly clear; I think Kat is the lynch today. If Kat's town, I suspect KK is the right move, and if Kat's scum DRK is.

[Fishythefish]

Last post before I leave. Nothing much to say to Kat (or anyone) - I don't think my thoughts are "fairly bullshit" or my case "shit terrible". The change through today from "resigned, for-the-greater-good" Kat to "this is bullshit and you're scum" Kat makes me hopeful Kat is scum. But TBH I'm not sure how well I distinguish flailing annoyed town from flailing desperate scum.

[Fishythefish]

Still mostly away until Mon/Tue. It's LYLO, don't vote.

Not remotely interested in a mith or Rhinox lynch. So I don't really care how likely kk/drk is. The 4 important pairings are:

Rh/kk
Rh/drk
Mith/kk
Mith/drk

Of those, I'm currently putting most of the weight on mith/kk; Rhinox really doesn't look like scum, and mith would have to be playing a brilliant game to be scum with drk here. When I get back, I will reread carefully to check I believe both those. If that's the case, KK should die.

@Rhinox: which pairs do you think are likely to be scum? In particular, I'm interested in mith with drk or kk; which is more likely?

[Fishythefish]

Acknowledging prod, with apologies. Content post within 6 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Acknowledging prod, with apologies. Content post within 6 hours.

Sorry, taking longer than I expected - ended up doing a lot of rereading. Content post really, actually, tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Right, time for a big post which says exactly where I am on everything. I doubt it will contain much new, but I need to put everything together and make my mind up, and I may as well do it out loud.

Individuals

Rhinox

Day 1
- His last post of D1 is interesting. Having hardly mentioned panzer (the day 1 townlynch) all day, he voiced support for the wagon when it was at L-1 without voting. Strikes me as a fairly unlikely scum move; why associate yourself with the town lynch?
Day 2
- Solid content at the beginning of the day.
- In 194, votes Kitty. Looking at this over and over, I really think Rhinox-scum would have only done it if he intended Kitty to get lynched, or at least didn't mind too much. I'd just said this:
"I'm tempted to move my vote because of the lack of company, but I don't think that's a good idea. The complete lack of interest in my wagon makes me think I'm actually more likely to be on to something."
Now, I was one of the more active players in the game, and I was also widely read as town. I had a townread on Rhinox, and clearly listened to him. I think Rhinox respects my play. I think scumRhinox would have seen a real danger in moving to Kitty; a renewed push from me was very predictable, and could easily lead to a lynch in the fragmented atmosphere of Day 2.

So, would scumRhinox mind too much about a Kitty lynch? For me, the answer is clear. If scum with KK or mith, the other two wagons with decent support, perhaps it wouldn't be too risky (particularly with mith, actually - from Rhinox's posting, a move to mith was easy but a move to KK was hard). If scum with DRK, it would be very unlikely indeed.

Day 4 - turnaround on DRK/Kat, which makes DRK/Rhinox more likely. His main stated reasons for this are my influence and pair hunting. Both make lots of sense to me.

I've shared lots of his opinions all game, and he's made a great deal of sense. His play makes much more sense as town than scum. Very townish indeed.

mith

Day 1 - mith's D1 was moderately scummy. It felt like he is arguing in order to win the argument, or to look town, not to scumhunt. I've felt this occasionally about his posting since, but most on D1.

An interesting event on D1 is mith's wagon. mith reached L-1 on D1; every other vote from almost the start was on confirmed town, with the significant wagon being on panzer. Now, mith sat at L-1 for a few day with a wagon of me, Rhinox, Kat and panzer. FMPOV, that wagon probably has no scum on it. Meanwhile, KK read mith as scum, but he never actually hammered or threatened to. This post is the weird one - what would KK-town be doing making a post like this about mith without mentioning his wagon?

@KK: do you remember what you thought of mith's wagon at this point?

Day 2 - mith starts off fighting with chamber, saying Kat is his number 2. When Rhinox had voted Kitty, he said
"I would vote for Kitty over KK at this point. Very happy with my vote on Katsuki though, after rereading the last couple pages."
Kitty and KK were both really possible lynches here. I don't really see what good this post does mith-scum unless KK is also scum; it's not going to garner many distancing points, and boxes him into bussing. Makes mith scum with DRK or Rhinox significantly less likely.

Then I make my "follow me or die" post, and KK votes Kitty. Then mith votes Kitty as well. By this stage, I'd say Kitty is in reasonably serious trouble; without flipping on his Kitty-over-KK statement mithscum is going to struggle to save Kitty; and even with flipping it's a longish shot that ties mith to Kitty. I can easily see mithscum thinking that bussing was the way to go.

Day 4 - argued for DRK/Rhinox being a real possibility, pushed DRK lynch quite hard. I see where he's coming from, though I disagree. Makes DRK/mith seem a bit less likely.

DRK

I've talked about DRK; my gut townread on him persists. OTOH, he's the best fit for scum with Kitty, seeing as everyone else voted for her in a not-massively-bussy way.

KK

I found his Day 1 and early Day 2 play rather hard to read; I thought he was wrong about a lot of things (particularly in his case against mith), but it sounded like he believed what he was saying.

I still don't think KK's vote on Kitty looks like bussing,

particularly

not without mith. It came directly after my post, when mith was still a very possible lynch KK could have credibly voted for. In the KK-mith scenario, this is much more likely.

Since Day 2, he's done nothing at all. He didn't seem to reevaluate the game in light of the Kitty flip. His DRK scumread disappeared. All in all, his play is weird, and I can't really convince myself of it coming from town or from scum.

Pairs

Based on the above:

Not scum together

DRK/Rhinox (Rhinox isn't scum, and as scum with DRK wouldn't play D2 like that)

Very unlikely scumpairs

mith/Rhinox (Rhinox isn't scum)
KK/Rhinox (Rhinox isn't scum)

Unlikely scumpair

mith/DRK (mith's days 2 and 4)

Plausible scumpair

KK/mith - makes the busses from KK and mith D2 sensible.

Needs more thought

DRK/KK - they had a big fight, I've never really bothered to think hard about it. I probably should.

[Fishythefish]

Had a look at DRK/KK. DRK's day 2 attack on KK was more than distancing - whoever's scum out of the two of them, DRK wanted KK lynched. Makes the pair a fair bit less likely. DRK's been focussed on KK ever since. KK on DRK is more interesting, and weirder. Day 2 KK thought DRK was scum, while the argument was hot. After that, he's barely mentioning him. It feels a lot like KK only wanted to call DRK scummy to undermine DRK's case; otherwise why the complete lack of action D3 onwards?

[Fishythefish]

I was mostly apologising to the mod.

[Fishythefish]

@Rhinox, DRK, KK: how are the rereads coming along?

[Fishythefish]

Bugger this for a game of soldiers.

VOTE: Kublai Khan

I think this is the right move. He's in all my favourite scumpairs. I'm voting despite LYLO because it forces the town's hand - this basically makes the lynch me or KK, since if we are both town the game's up anyway. And in practise, I'm pretty sure that means the lynch is KK. I think this decision is better than the collective, possibly scum-influenced one. In particular, I don't want mith to vote DRK and make this a mith-DRK decision; I put enough weight on DRK/KK

and

on mith/KK for that to be a scary choice.

The only thing I've been waiting for is to hear from Rhinox; I'd have liked his opinion first. But I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have changed my mind, and this really is the lynch I want.

[Fishythefish]

Deadline is not for a week and a half. I'm voting because I think it's the best way to get the right lynch, which I think is KK.

[Fishythefish]

Hooray, we survived the night at least.

And yeah, I feel kind of bad taking the game into my own hands when two people I've always thought were town and sensible disagree. But I'm pretty sure it's the right thing to do.

[Fishythefish]

(Well, not quite; one person I've always thought was town and sensible, one person I've wavered on and is sensible. And also mith.)

[Fishythefish]

No hammers from mith and Rhinox! Score.

[Fishythefish]

I think this is the right move. He's in all my favourite scumpairs. I'm voting despite LYLO because it forces the town's hand - this basically makes the lynch me or KK, since if we are both town the game's up anyway.

No offense, but that is the stupidest thing you've done all game. You know that I think that you're town, so why present it as a false dilemma? Why did you rush this vote?

There is ZERO logic to the idea of a Kublai Khan/mith scum pair. Why the hell would we both vote for KittyMo at your suggestion? (Psst, reminder: it got KittyMo lynched).

(Explaining mostly for others; you are now confirmed scum to me, since otherwise we'd have lost).

You thinking me town is irrelevant. Me voting you in LYLO means either we lose fast (which hasn't happened, since Rhinox+mith passed up the chance to hammer), or one of the two of us is scum, and therefore dies.

I rushed this vote because mith has said he was voting (presumably DRK) on Monday. If I let him, that brought the lynch down to DRK/mith, and that was not a choice I wanted us to be making - it's a tough one. OTOH, voting you brings it down to you/me. I'm confident that means you, and that is the better option.

I think a KK/mith scum pair works fairly well; it makes both your Kittybusses far more likely. For more, see my recent posts. KK/DRK also fits ok with the game, and on the off-chance Rhinox is scum you are a perfectly good partner for him, too.

[Fishythefish]

Damn. Well done the scumteam. In particular, mith's play in the last couple of days successfully distanced from DRK, which was very important.

I really enjoyed the game, except for the lurky bits. Nightless is great fun - I've always felt that scum being able to kill the most scary townie unbalances the day game horribly.

What was the setup?

[Fishythefish]

"Duel" is an interesting role to give scum. Looks very townish, good for WIFOMy purposes.

Could that Kitty role have destroyed LYLO? Quick votes by all the scum + reinforcements, and with the deadline lynch rule it's a confirmed scum win?

The more I ponder on this game the sillier I feel. I came out of day 2 thinking (privately) "Easy. Lynch everyone not on the Kitty wagon, then lynch everyone who isn't me or Rhinox, then we'll have won". Should have stopped overthinking things when nothing was really changing - somehow got myself all worked up about a KK/mith pairing.

[Fishythefish]

What were you planning to do if I didn't vote KK? Continue stalling until I did?

[Fishythefish]

Interesting. Probably would have worked nicely. Good plan, those scumbags.

[Fishythefish]

Ah, that Kitty role makes more sense then.

Read the scum QT. Impressive stuff. Didn't realise I was quite so easy to manipulate.