NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Yosarian2]

Basically, you're itching so bad to vote for STD, but I have to die first?

No, I want you to convince me that you're town, and then I'll gladly lynch STD today. It won't even be that hard for you to do. I don't think I'm asking a lot of you here, so I really don't understand why you're flipping out so much all of a sudden, if you actually mean what you've kept saying.

either you or STD has to be scum.

No. That's not how it works. I am town. STD has overwhelming chances of flipping scum.

There is no "either me or STD has to be scum." It's incorrect, and I never said that. There is no dichotomy.

I'm going to make this really simple, so you can't pretend you don't understand me.

If you do think they are all town, that means that you think we have wagons on townies (according to the above assumption) that are made of all townies. TWICE!!! Do you believe this is possible? In all my years of playing scum, I have never witnessed a large wagon like these that didn't have at least one buddy on it. One buddy, minimum. If these players are town, I'd expect more scum on them, especially with LML dead day 1.

You keep insisting that there was at least one scum on each townie wagon. Here, let me quote YOU quoting that wagon.

Also this:

MafiaSSK/mathcam (9) --

CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Albert B. Rampage, Seol/Bookitty,

Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball,

Save the Dragons

,

Sotty7, Glork

You put yourself in green, but from my point of view, if there's scum on that wagon, now that CES is confirmed town, it's either you, or STD. I'm pretty sure Bookitty is town, and Albert is probalby town as well. By your own logic, based on the argument that YOU keep making over and over again and that you claim to be 100% certain of, at least from my point of view, either you or STD is scum.

Now, do you understand what I'm saying? We can lynch STD today, but if he flips town, we're going to lynch you tommorow. Understanding that, do you still want to lynch STD?

[Yosarian2]

He puts the burden on you to prove that you are town. That's not something someone can prove.

He try's to use your method against you, but both uses a single wagon instead of an aggregate of sources (as you do) and removes his town reads, which defeats the purpose anyway. There are 3 masons and 4 living scum, removing his town reads from the over all pool would have a similar effect. He also ignores the other STD sources which are by far more damning.

It doesn't matter if DGB's methods work or not. What I want to know is if DGB believes what she is saying.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, DGB, I'm asking you one more time. Are you confident enough in STD's alignment to bet your life on it, or not? If you're not confident about his alignment, that's fine, just say so now.

[Yosarian2]

It doesn't matter if DGB's methods work or not. What I want to know is if DGB believes what she is saying.

That's the point, that's not what she's saying. You are being horribly manipulative.

Back off and let her answer this question, chamber. I need to know her alignment before I go any farther with this. I already confirmed on thing about it from the way she's answered so far.

[Yosarian2]

No. I backed down when you bullied me over CES. I'm not doing that again.

I wasn't "bullying you", I was trying to get you to say what you thought about defend CES openly and directly so I could figure out if you were his buddy or not when he flipped scum. I was just trying to get you to actually to come out and explain why you thought he was town, and you wouldn't.

[Yosarian2]

None of that has anything to do with this, though. I really do think that DGB and STD probably have different alignments; not because of DGB's argument, but for other reasons, mostly process of elimination. That's why I need to get a read on DGB. I could just take a guess, but I do not want to be wrong again.

[Yosarian2]

None of that has anything to do with this, though. I really do think that DGB and STD probably have different alignments; not because of DGB's argument, but for other reasons, mostly process of elimination. That's why I need to get a read on DGB. I could just take a guess, but I do not want to be wrong again.

I'm perfectly happy to talk about this instead. You are the one that ran from my inquiries. How do you expect someone to prove that they are town? (generally an impossible task) Why are you holding her STD read to the standard of risking her game life on it?

Can we have this conversation after she answers my question?

[Yosarian2]

The entire point is that your questions aren't fair. So no.

(shrug) The game of mafia is never "fair". That doesn't matter.

[Yosarian2]

And that's how you mislynched CES.

So...I was wrong about CES, and therefore you don't want me ever to ask anyone questions or to ever try to find scum for the rest of the game?

[Yosarian2]

No, I don't want you to use unfair lines.

My case against CES was entirely fair. It just happened to be wrong. Today, I'd rather be unfair but right.

[Yosarian2]

None of that has anything to do with this, though. I really do think that DGB and STD probably have different alignments; not because of DGB's argument, but for other reasons, mostly process of elimination. That's why I need to get a read on DGB. I could just take a guess, but I do not want to be wrong again.

You say you want to lynch STD.

But then you pester me all day to get me to "prove" my alignment.

And you say you want to lynch STD, but you're not pestering STD to "prove" his alignment.

The guy you say you want to lynch, you leave in peace.

Why is this such a hard question to answer? Are you confident STD is scum, or not?

[Yosarian2]

4) Yos -- I'm a little puzzled by your re-evaluations not having moved porochaz away from obviously town. I'm not as anti-porochaz as my posts might make it out to be, but I can't fathom why he looks so town to people. He's got almost no play in the bandwagon press. Looking back at Day 1, I never would have though I'd see you be on the verge of voting STD but still consider porochaz obvtown,

I've gotten a lot of town tells from porochaz over the course of the game. Most recently, I got a strong town tell from the way he figured out that Sotty was a mason, didn't say anything, and then tried to get Albert to stop badgering her before she was forced to claim.

[Yosarian2]

Why is this such a hard question to answer? Are you confident STD is scum, or not?

What about you?

Prove to me that you are town.

Right now, the wagon is 5 votes STD, 5 votes for you, and I'm trying to decide which one of you I should vote for today. One of the two of you is going to get lynched today, almost certainly. I was leaning towards STD at the start of the day, but the fact that you are flailing so hard to avoid answering such a simple question about someone that has apparently been your strongest scum read for days is making me re-consider.

We're lynching STD today and if he flips scum, we lynch you tomorrow. Are you willing to stake your life that STD is town?

Right now, I think there's about a 50% chance STD is scum and about a 50% chance you are scum. I think there's almost 0% chance that you're scum together (if you were bussing him, you would be responding to my questions in a different way) and there's close to a 0% chance that you're both town.

I'll be glad to vote for STD today, and I don't think you're going to get him lynched today without my vote. I just need you to understand that if we do lynch STD today, and he flips town, then that means in my mind that you're almost certainly scum, and I will vote you until you are dead. Which will probably be tommorow; you're the other main suspect right now. On the other hand, if you tell me you're confident STD is scum and he flips scum, I'm probably going to consider you confirmed town until the end of the game.

If you're as confident that he's scum as you've been claiming to be, then that shouldn't bother you. If you're not, if you think there's a chance after all that both you and he are scum, then say so now.

[Yosarian2]

Edit: last line should have said "if you think there's a chance that both you and he are town".

[Yosarian2]

Yos knows full well that his threats in no way will soften DGB's stance.

This isn't a threat. It's a simple statement of fact. There are 4 scum left, and considering the number of confirmed townies and obvious townies, and the pairs of people who can't possibly be scum with each other (you and chamber, OGML and Albert, ect), I think there has to be exactally one scum in the group of (DGB, STD). I have trouble coming up with a scum group that doesn't include one of them. Do you disagree?

Everyone knows DGB loves the dramatic, has a tendency to hyperbolic certainty, but also is not going to back down.

Yes, absolutely. When she's certain, she's totally certain. I am trying to ascertain if this is one of those times or not.

[Yosarian2]

So...I guess you're saying that you're not confident STD is scum, then?

[Yosarian2]

So...I guess you're saying that you're not confident STD is scum, then?

90% sure.

Ok then.

vote:save the dragons

Thank you for finally answering the question, you have no idea how frustrating that was.

[Yosarian2]

Yos is at least making me pay attention. DGB, just answer the question. I'm curious as to why this is so difficult. (EBWOP: Okay, an answer has arrived. I agree that I don't see why the answer wasn't obvious, e.g., "I'm confident he's scum, but not so confident that I'd wager my game life on it.")

Basically, I was setting up a situation where the play pro-town DGB would make was different then the play scum-DGB would have made. Once I made it clear that I think that either DGB or STD is probably scum (which, by the way, I actually do), then hypo-scum-DGB (who presumably would already know STD was town) would probably derail the whole STD bandwagon; stop voting for him and vote for me, or change the focus to someone else, or something. If she did then, then I'd know she was scum. (On the other hand, in the situation where scum-DGB was bussing a partner, she would have said she was confident he was scum right away; I expected town-DGB to be more then a little paranoid about my fairly bizzare question.)

The fact that she's still willing to lynch STD, even knowing that she's likely the lynch tomorrow if he's town, means that DGB is most likely town who actually believes he's scum.

[Yosarian2]

This isn't a threat. It's a simple statement of fact. There are 4 scum left, and considering the number of confirmed townies and obvious townies, and the pairs of people who can't possibly be scum with each other (you and chamber, OGML and Albert, ect), I think there has to be exactally one scum in the group of (DGB, STD). I have trouble coming up with a scum group that doesn't include one of them. Do you disagree?

Yes. There's so many players left, including two useless hard-to-read lurker slots (SpyreX, OGML). Even if we exclude you and me and all of the pairs you list, how about MBL, or GC, or BooKitty, or Poro? Are you so certain of all of your reads? I can easily think of lots of four-player scum groups that fit your constraints. It seems totally fake to claim that one of DGB and StD

has

to be scum.

1) Chamber
2) Porochaz
5) MrBuddyLee
6) DrippingGoofball
8) undo
9) Sotty7
11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly)
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
15) Albert B. Rampage
16) Green Crayons
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
18) VitaminR
19) Save the Dragons
20) Yosarian2
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)
22) OhGodMyLife (replacing Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)

First, eliminate the 3 masoons.

Poro, GC, and Bookitty are pretty clearly all town. Bookitty is town because of the day 1 wagon, I'm pretty confident Green Crayons was not scum with LML from the way he helped lynch him on day 1, and Poro is just obvtown.

OGML is also likely town; he's hard to read sometimes, but all of his posting since he joined the game has given me a good vibe.

I also really don't see mathcam as scum. He's looking increasingly townie as the game goes on. Out of all my remaining town reads, this is one that might be wrong, but let's assume not for the moment.

We're left with

1) Chamber
5) MrBuddyLee
6) DrippingGoofball
15) Albert B. Rampage
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
18) VitaminR
19) Save the Dragons

VitR and Chamber are probably not scum together.

DGB and STD are not scum together. (I already thought so, but the way DGB responded to my "trap" totally confirmed that.)

ABR can't really be scum with most of the people on the list.

MBL probably isn't scum with VitR

I don't think mathcam can be scum with either DGB or STD, considering the way he's attacked both of them

So, assuming 4 scum left, the scum are probably:

(DGB or STD) + (VitR or Chamber) + Spyrex + someone else (maybe MBL? Maybe OGML? Or maybe one of my other town reads are wrong?)

or maybe

(DGB or STD) + (Spyrex) + MBL + OGML? But I don't really think that makes sense.

I really can't construct a plausible scum group that doesn't include either DGB or STD. Can you?

In any case, we probably should be able to win this game through process of elimination lynching at this point. But if we can lynch the *right* one out of the STD/DGB pair first, then the other one is basically confirmed town in my mind, which dramatically increases our chances of winning.

[Yosarian2]

To be clear, there *are* scenerios that don't include either DGB or STD, they just seem very unlikely.

And, if there was any doubt, of *course* I'm not actually suggesting we auto-lynch DGB tomorrow if STD flips town. That would make her likely scum, but no more so then, say, Spyrex.

[Yosarian2]

Wrong on so many levels.

Even if you think my read on OGML may be wrong, it doesn't change the chart that much.

[Yosarian2]

Poro, GC, and Bookitty are pretty clearly all town.

These are all some degree of a scum read of mine...

I can understand not being able to read Poro, especially if you haven't played with him as much as I have.

But how could Bookitty be scum here? What are the odds that both day 1 wagons were on scum, and that there was no real counterwagon at all?

And if you read day 1, do you really come away with the impression that GC could be scum with LML?

[Yosarian2]

Really, chamber, I'm having a lot of trouble understanding your play this game at all. If you thought DGB was town today and wanted to defend her, great, but why didn't you defend her against one of the people actually voting for her? Why did you instead try to stop me from asking her questions to figure out her alignment?

Same thing with CES; if you thought he was town, great, maybe you're better able to read him then I am, but why not actually defend him directly, instead of that weird passive-aggressive stuff you were doing at the end of the day yesterday where you kept sort-of defending him but then vanished when questioned?

I just don't understand what most of your posts in recent days are even supposed to accomplish.

[Yosarian2]

. But as I've said, I didn't have a strong town read on CES, and I certainly have no town read on DGB. My interest wasn't in defending them, that was a biproduct of dismantling the bad arguments being raised against them. Why didn't I defend her against people actually voting for her? Because their reasons were less bad.

But I wasn't raising an argument against her at all? All I was doing was trying to make sure my earlier town read on her before voting for STD (who I had also had a town read on earlier this game).

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, everyone has an agenda while posting, even if they're not always consciously aware what it is.

[Yosarian2]

guys realize

MafiaSSK/mathcam (9) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Albert B. Rampage, Seol/Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Save the Dragons, Sotty7, Glork

there ws only one scum inm tshi wago

mathcam defscum

KILL KILL KILL

Trying to understand this, DGB. Was this the wagon at the end of day 2?

At this point, the other big wagons was on town, right? This was when the wagons were Mathcam/ Glork/ and a little one on CES, and both Glork and CES were town. If mathcam was also town, why would the scum necessarily be on that wagon, instead of one of the other town wagons? If all 3 wagons were on town, then why would the scum care?

[Yosarian2]

On an unrelated note, this totally explains why DGB was willing to out someone she thought was a cop on day 2.

[Yosarian2]

Trying to understand this, DGB. Was this the wagon at the end of day 2?

At this point, the other big wagons was on town, right? This was when the wagons were Mathcam/ Glork/ and a little one on CES, and both Glork and CES were town. If mathcam was also town, why would the scum necessarily be on that wagon, instead of one of the other town wagons? If all 3 wagons were on town, then why would the scum care?

pLEASE CHECK that while I'm rushing to do other things, thanks

Sure.

Actually, I'm looking at all of Patrick's posts and I can't find a wagon where this happened:

MafiaSSK/mathcam (9) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Albert B. Rampage, Seol/Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Save the Dragons, Sotty7, Glork

Must have been before day 2, since Glork was still alive. On day 1, just looking at Patrick's posts, mafiaSSk had a 5 vote wagon on him at one point (went away after the replacement). On day 2, the biggest mathcam wagon I can find (still just looking at Patrick's posts) was here:

Votecount

Glork (6) -- undo, Kublai Khan, VitaminR, Porochaz, mathcam, Green Crayons
CrashTextDummie (1) -- SpyreX
undo (1) -- chamber
mathcam (7) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Sotty7, Glork
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Yosarian2
VitaminR (1) -- Albert B. Rampage
DrippingGoofball (2) -- Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
20 alive, 11 to lynch

The only other wagons were on Glork, and a few votes on you. So the competing wagon was also on town.

Let me take a closer look and see if I can find the exact point when he got to 9 votes; if that happened ,it must have been between vote counts and the next one.

[Yosarian2]

Also, DGB being the doctor explains why DGB didn't react to my "bet your life" question quite the way I would have expected VT-DGB to react, although it was close enough for me to still get a town read.

[Yosarian2]

Trying to understand this, DGB. Was this the wagon at the end of day 2?

At this point, the other big wagons was on town, right? This was when the wagons were Mathcam/ Glork/ and a little one on CES, and both Glork and CES were town. If mathcam was also town, why would the scum necessarily be on that wagon, instead of one of the other town wagons? If all 3 wagons were on town, then why would the scum care?

pLEASE CHECK that while I'm rushing to do other things, thanks

Sure.

Actually, I'm looking at all of Patrick's posts and I can't find a wagon where this happened:

MafiaSSK/mathcam (9) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Albert B. Rampage, Seol/Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Save the Dragons, Sotty7, Glork

Must have been before day 2, since Glork was still alive. On day 1, just looking at Patrick's posts, mafiaSSk had a 5 vote wagon on him at one point (went away after the replacement). On day 2, the biggest mathcam wagon I can find (still just looking at Patrick's posts) was here:

Votecount

Glork (6) -- undo, Kublai Khan, VitaminR, Porochaz, mathcam, Green Crayons
CrashTextDummie (1) -- SpyreX
undo (1) -- chamber
mathcam (7) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Sotty7, Glork
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Yosarian2
VitaminR (1) -- Albert B. Rampage
DrippingGoofball (2) -- Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
20 alive, 11 to lynch

The only other wagons were on Glork, and a few votes on you. So the competing wagon was also on town.

Let me take a closer look and see if I can find the exact point when he got to 9 votes; if that happened ,it must have been between vote counts and the next one.

Nah, that exact wagon doesn't exist as far as I can tell. She just added STD and ABR to the 7 one because they were both on versions with 6 votes.

Yeah, you're right.

So, 7 votes on mathcam, competing wagons on Glork and a little pressure against CES and against DGB. Mostly confirmed townies on the mathcam wagon; all townies, if Bookitty is town. No scum on the wagon at all.

That does make mathcam look a little worse, but in the hypothetical where all wagons were on town, I'm not sure where the scum wind up.

[Yosarian2]

So, 7 votes on mathcam, competing wagons on Glork and a little pressure against CES and against DGB. Mostly confirmed townies on the mathcam wagon; all townies, if Bookitty is town. No scum on the wagon at all.

Was this day 2? It would make sense that they wouldn't bus day 2.

Yeah, day 2.

Votecount

Glork (6) -- undo, Kublai Khan, VitaminR, Porochaz, mathcam, Green Crayons
CrashTextDummie (1) -- SpyreX
undo (1) -- chamber
mathcam (7) -- CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Bookitty, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball, Sotty7, Glork
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Yosarian2
VitaminR (1) -- Albert B. Rampage
DrippingGoofball (2) -- Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
20 alive, 11 to lynch

CTD, CES, UT, DGB, Sotty7, and Glork all confirmed town. Bookitty probably town.

This was the high tide point of the mathcam wagon day 2; after this, the Glork wagon grew and the mathcam wagon shrunk.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, are you in agreement to lynch out of OGML, mathcam, Porochaz, Spyrex and GC, in the next few days, in that aproximate order?

I'd say the scum group is something like Spyrex + probably mathcam + probably one of (vitimanR or Chamber) + maybe OGML. Something like that.

Overall, i think we're pretty close to agreement. We should be able to process of elimination lynch our way to a victory, if nothing else.

[Yosarian2]

I'd say the scum group is something like Spyrex + probably mathcam + probably one of (vitimanR or Chamber) + maybe OGML. Something like that.

Porochaz?

Eh. It still doesn't feel right, but maybe. I'd lynch him before I'd lynch you, or bookitty, or probably MBL.

[Yosarian2]

We're forgetting about SpyreX damn it

SpyreX is probably my first choice to lynch tomorrow, personally. Then again I always like to start POE by hitting the lurkers first.

[Yosarian2]

We're forgetting about SpyreX damn it

SpyreX is probably my first choice to lynch tomorrow, personally. Then again I always like to start POE by hitting the lurkers first.

Yeah but mathcam is confscum. Why delay?

(shrug) I'm more confident SpyreX is scum then I am about mathcam, but I'd lynch either tomorrow without much hesitation, I think.

[Yosarian2]

Everyone, stop commenting on if you think ABR's theory is likely to not. There's no sense in outing the vig right now.

[Yosarian2]

Lol. Damnit ABR.

[Yosarian2]

lol. Optimal strategy was for DGB to stay hidden. She just couldn't help it, and she was leaving to europe anyway.

Town probably wouldn't have been willing to lynch a claimed doctor without a counterclaim.

[Yosarian2]

I also figured STDscum could coast a long time fakeclaiming doc, what with the masons being killed etc., then he could have pushed on me again as "conftown" plus I had Yos pushing "one of DGB/STD" so... I held it as long as I could.

I still thought the one scum that had to be in (STD/DGB) was STD, even after the doctor claim; that claim looked fake to me. But I might have backed off and gone elsewhere for a day, just to avoid any risk of mislynching the doc if I was wrong.

[Yosarian2]

If he remained unCC'd, he would have lived forever and I would have sounded like a complete nut.

Maybe. You made the right play, I think. Trading 1 doc for 1 scum is a good deal at this point in the game, and with 3 masons alive, it would have been hard for you to know who to protect anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah; sorry I was giving you a hard time earlier, DGB. Honestly, half the reason I was doing that was I really wanted to confirm you as town so I could know I could listen to you for the rest of the game.

[Yosarian2]

Yos your questioning of DGB is still really bad and I don't actually understand how you gleaned anything from it.

I created a situation where town-DGB would react in a different way then scum-DGB would, using kind of a crazy gambit (a bluff, really; I wasn't actually expecting her to agree to die or whatever, and I wouldn't have really followed through if she did).

A lot of it comes down to her meta. I don't think I would do that exact gambit on anyone else. But for certain really, really good players, the only way to read them is to put them in a crazy high-pressure situation of a type that they haven't already gamed out in the past out and see how they respond.

[Yosarian2]

haha woooooooo 50-50 shot at nailing scum.. thank god. I was starting to worry that they both might be town. My first instinct is to lynch DGB, but I need to go reread for doc-context.

This is a scum post, right?

I can't tell. I don't know if I'd have the nerve to post after seeing the counter claim without reading the like 3 new pages or w/e.

Agreed. Posting as soon as you see a claim like that before reading the rest of the thread seems vaguely town-ish to me, even though the conclusion is weird.

[Yosarian2]

even though the conclusion is weird.

Weird? It goes against everything. He has made a case against STD. Then later during the day he slinked away from it, and started to bring me up as a scum read. Then he was to lynch the counterclaimer, over the guy he made a big case on??????

MBL, if you could respond to this post before the end of the day, I think it would be useful. I want to see you give your explanation/defense now, while DGB is still alive to respond to it.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. If mathcam flips scum, then I think I agree with you, there have to have been scum pushing the Glork counterwagon. Does that still apply if mathcam flips town?

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. If mathcam flips scum, then I think I agree with you, there have to have been scum pushing the Glork counterwagon. Does that still apply if mathcam flips town?

Even MORE so.

Oh wait you mean if mathcam was a town counterwagon? I don't think that makes much of a difference.

I mean here:

I see that you've pitted us against each other. Which wagon were we on together that aligned us as such?

Glork (6) -- Green Crayons, Sotty7, MafiaSSK/mathcam, CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum, Porochaz
MafiaSSK/mathcam (6) -- Tigris/Kublai Khan, Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly, Seol/Bookitty, Porochaz, Green Crayons
DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife

If mathcam was scum, then there were probably scum pushing the day 2 Glork wagon here to try to save him; I think that's what you're saying here, and I agree with you. But if all 3 wagons here were on town, then I'm not sure if vote distribution tells us much; scum could be anywhere, couldn't they? They wouldn't really care.

(I think we're probably going to lynch mathcam before we get as far down the list as someone like prochaz or GC, so we'll know by then.)

[Yosarian2]

Niiiiice. I had a feeling StD was going to claim Doc from Post 3182.

I knew DGB was town!

You were opposed to lynching either STD or DGB, and you were arguing with me about my "either DGB or STD must be scum" comment. Neither of which looks good for you now that we know STD was scum.

[Yosarian2]

and you were arguing with me about my "either DGB or STD must be scum" comment.

It was a shitty comment. The only reason I wasn't taking up that fight is because VitR was.

(shrug) I don't care if you agree with the comment or not at this point. That's not the question. The question is, how do you think STD's scum buddy would react to hearing that comment. I think they would try to avoid lynching either STD or DGB, or would try to make the comment seem less credible, or both.

[Yosarian2]

Back from V/LA. Will try to read and respond to everything; let me respond to Juls first.

Juls, from my point of view, what happened on day 1 was basically this:

-VitR started out with a vote on LML for a garbage reason

-I called him out for it as my first non-random vote (obviously not a very strong vote at the time, just a better then random one, with a little showmanship added to it to try to help me get a read on VitR)

-As the day went on, though, LML became increasingly scummy, while VitR seemed to just fade off the case, unvote him, and basically fade off into scummy nothingness

-I drove the LML wagon, with a little help from GC and from PJ but from basically no one else for most of the day. I lynched him almost singlehandedly, against the strong opposition of a number of vocal townies like DGB.

Now at the time, since I remembered attacking VitR for his attack on LML, I was thinking that they weren't scum together. But looking at it now, it really looks to me like it was probably an early-game distancing vote with no follow through at all.

Overall, my top suspects right now are probably VitR and Mathcam. VitR distanced from LML and then vanished, and he defended STD yesterday in several different ways. Mathcam basically avoided commenting on the LML lynch one way or the other (even when being questioned), and he also basically didn't comment on the STD lynch yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

And, looks like VitR is continuing to act scummy today, so that pretty much seals it for me.

vote:VitimanR

[Yosarian2]

Hey Yos, what do you think of Poro and CDB?

Well, if VitR flips scum, then CDB is probably town; OGML was pushing pretty hard for us to lynch VitR instead of CES.

Poro, I donno; I'd like to see him respond to your 3601.

At the moment, if it really did come down to those two, I guess I'd vote for porochaz, but I think we've got more likely suspects then either right now.

[Yosarian2]

Once I made it clear that I think that either DGB or STD is probably scum (which, by the way, I actually do), then hypo-scum-DGB (who presumably would already know STD was town) would probably derail the whole STD bandwagon; stop voting for him and vote for me, or change the focus to someone else, or something.

Was this expectation of blatantly scummy behavior coming from DGB-scum based on your previous experience with DGB?[/quote]

DGB can change direction in the blink of an eye, and no one thinks it's strange because of her meta. In my experience, scum-DGB consistently and easily gets away with things that no other scum would even try, and she uses that to her best advantage.

Honestly, I'm not totally sure what a scum-DGB reaction there would have looked like, but I do think it would have looked different enough from townie-DGB reaction for me to tell the difference. The reaction she gave was pretty clearly a town one.

[Yosarian2]

vote: Albert

At this point, I don't think there is a plausible 3-man scumgroup that could include Albert. I thought it was possible Albert was scum with CES, but after CES flipped town, I really can't see it.

[Yosarian2]

I mean, STD strongly buddied VitR a couple of times, what does that say about VitR?

Interesting. When was this? Post number?

[Yosarian2]

Yos, and probably SpyreX. My current thinking is that our scum is in {SpyreX, Yos/GC, Poro, ABR}.

This is the point of the game where scum have to start claiming to have an increasingly absurd list of suspects.

[Yosarian2]

This is just so obviously a rewrite of Day 1 according to your own biases. You lynched LML "singlehandedly", while I "voted LML for a garbage reason" and then "faded into nothingness"?

Yes, that's how I day 1 looks when I look at it now. You voted LML very early, almost right off the bat, for a reason that seemed off to me at the time. You never really followed up on it; you never asked LML further questions, you never attacked him for other posts he made, you explained your LML vote when asked but that's it. Then you left the LML wagon to vote for PJ.

For most of the rest of the day, you paid LML little attention, while I was really fighting to keep the wagon on him going (for a while, it was down to just 3 votes, just me, PJ, and GC). You briefly got back on the LML wagon, but then you went back to PJ. You did get on the LML wagon by the end of the day, but only just.

In my opinion, LML looked increasingly scummy as the day went on, but you mostly ignored him for the second half of the day (say, after we came back from the crash). It doesn't look like you put a lot of effort into trying to lynch him. Comparing your attacks on LML with, say, your attacks on me later in the game, your attacks on LML seem somewhere between "half-hearted" and "nonexistent".

I remember you as a player who is capable of self-doubt and retrospection and this is just so obviously tailored to you fit your current opinions

"Tailored to fit my current opinions"? Where the hell do you think I got my current opinions from? I've suspected you since day 3, and I've re-read your behavior on day 1 many times since then.

I was voting LML for the majority of Day 1. Sure, I was thrown off a bit by pj, but I pushed him extensively before that and he was never out of my sights.

Show me where you "pushed him extensively". The only thing you ever attacked him for was his mafiaSSK vote (which was, frankly, the least scummy thing LML did on day 1), and I think that was only because you were questioned about your vote there. The only other thing I can find that you attacked him for was the fact that he voted CES, and you quickly left the wagon after that.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos

, why did you find VitR scummy and STD townish for picking fights with power players early D1?

VitR wasn't "picking fights" with large numbers of people for the most part. His early LML post just looked a little weird to me. At the time, I thought the mafiaSSK wagon was reasonable, albeit weak, and voting someone for being on that wagon didn't make much sense. The only other person he attacked all dayt was PJ.

Of course, my vote was based on almost nothing, which was why I did that whole elaborate "do you know why I'm voting you" thing in order to try get a read on him. It was basically the same maneuver I did with DGB yesterday; set a big, obvious trap (asking him if he knew what it was that he did that was scummy is clearly a trap question to try to answer), and if the person's town they're more likely to walk into it anyway, since they have nothing to hide. He kind of avoided to answer the question, refusing to speculate about what it was that I found scummy about him, which was a point against him and why I kept my vote on him a little longer.

And, yeah, I do usually consider "going out of your way to pick fights with a large number of people, especially strong players" to be a day 1 towntell. Obviously it's not always true, it wasn't with STD in this game, but in general, that's a kind of behavior most scum try to avoid. I don't think VitR committed that town tell here, though; do you?

[Yosarian2]

Behavior wrt to StD-DGB:
- On Day 4, he sets up a false dichotomy between DGB and StD, saying a few times that one of them has to be scum (Post 3083, Post 3103, Post 3127), even though he read both of them as town previously.

Uh, a "false dichotomy" is only a scum tell because scum try to set up false dichotomy BETWEEN TWO TOWN PLAYERS. That's the whole point of the scum tell, it's a way for scum to chain mislynches.

If I say "One of (player X and player Y) is scum, the other one is town" and I was RIGHT, then that's not a false dichotomy at all. It's, for the lack of a better word, a true dichotomy. It's obviously not a scumtell to do that in a situation where you're actually right; there's no scum motivation for it. The fact that you're trying to use this as an argument is pretty scummy on your part, in fact; you're trying to use a scumtell out of context, in a way that obviously makes no sense, in order to bolster your bullshit case on me.

And, yes, earlier in the game, I thought that both DGB and STD were town. That was why I was so sure CES was scum; if my town reads were correct, then there was no plausible scum group that didn't include CES. Once CES flipped town, I knew that at least some of my town reads must be wrong, and immediately started to wonder about STD. I said all this yesterday in so many words, so if you're reading my posts, you already should know that.

The fact is, yesterday, there WAS no plausible scum group that didn't include either STD or DGB. You denied this in your defense of STD, but I noticed you didn't (couldn't) suggest one at the time.

I was right that either STD or DGB had to be scum. There was no other way. And if you were town, I think you would have understood that, instead of trying so hard to insist that they were both town.

I must admit, though, it's pretty damn gutsy for you to pretend that the fact that I was trying to lynch a scum yesterday while you were trying to defend him is somehow a scumtell against ME. That takes some big balls, and I commend that; you're playing your scum role quite well this game, VitR.

[Yosarian2]

You can totally have scum motivation for setting up a dichotomy between scum and town. For example, if you think that people are more likely to vote for the townie if forced to choose. Say if the townie is a particularly easy target, like DGB.

That's obvious nonesense, in any number of ways.

First of all, no, that still doesn't make any sense. If I say "Either A or B is scum", and then we lynch B and they flip town, that still gets person A lynched the next day. If I was trying to protect person A, that would be the stupidist possible way to do it.

Secondly, I never tried to lynch DGB yesterday, and in fact right from the start of the day I made clear that while either DGB or STD had to be scum, that I thought STD was more likely. I did question DGB, but I never attacked her or made a case against her.

And third of all, I think you just implied DGB was an easy lynch, which is just laughable; have you ever played with DGB before?

Besides which, you still haven't actually refuted my argument from yesterday; you keep claiming that it's absurd, but you never actually bothered to refute it. My main point yesterday was that there was no plausible 4 man scum that didn't include either DGB or STD. If you think that's untrue, then give me one. Give me 4 people who yesterday could plausably have been scum together, without including people who are either obvtown or who can't possibly be scum together because of the way they've fought, and without including either STD or DGB.

In any case, I don't have to know the motivation in order to recognize fallacious reasoning.

How can you say it's "fallacious reasoning" when you seem totally incapable of refuting it? This is at least the third time I've asked you to do so, and you apparently can't.

I gave a whole bunch of plausible scum groups in Post 3244 (we had a whole discussion about it!), but you just ignored it because you're unwilling to try to see anything from my perspective.

Are you talking about this?

Yes. There's so many players left, including two useless hard-to-read lurker slots (SpyreX, OGML). Even if we exclude you and me and all of the pairs you list, how about MBL, or GC, or BooKitty, or Poro? Are you so certain of all of your reads? I can easily think of lots of four-player scum groups that fit your constraints. It seems totally fake to claim that one of DGB and StD has to be scum.

MBL? GC? Bookitty? Poro? Really?

GC has far more town cred then most people in the game do, bookitty is very unlikely to be scum, and MBL is obvtown. You're really reaching here.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote vote yos

...

*bangs head on table*

Chamber, you're confirmed town, stop being shit and at least try to help us lynch scum here.

[Yosarian2]

And, yeah, I do usually consider "going out of your way to pick fights with a large number of people, especially strong players" to be a day 1 towntell. Obviously it's not always true, it wasn't with STD in this game, but in general, that's a kind of behavior most scum try to avoid. I don't think VitR committed that town tell here, though; do you?

I dunno, you're the one who said it:

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and

going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move

, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little...

your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum

Oh, for the record, STD is town.

So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched

, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal.

No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.

Why'd you make VitR scum and STD town for essentially the same behavior?

No, it's the opposite behavior.

If you're scum, there is zero risk to defending a VI who you know is town. You come off looking good and all that. If you're town, there's a huge risk to defending a flailing VI who is likely to be lynched and may or may not flip scum when they do. That's what I was accusing VitR of in that post you quote.

Now, he was *using* that bandwagon to make both Seol (bookitty) and PJ look bad. But that only works if he's scum who already knows the alignment of the person who you're defending.

[Yosarian2]

Quick breakdown, assuming 3 scum left.

Confirmed town:
8) undo
9) Sotty7
11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly)
1) Chamber

Obvtown:
5) MrBuddyLee- pretty clear he's not scum with STD, his case against him was strong from the start
15) Albert B. Rampage

Looks town:
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)- mostly based on day 1 wagon
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22) - a little iffy, but attacked STD well for much of the game
16) Green Crayons- mostly based on day 1 attacks on LML

Remaining:
2) Porochaz
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
18) VitaminR
22) ChannelDelibird (replacing OhGodMyLife who replaced Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)

Like I said, I'm pretty confident CDB is not scum with VitR at this point, since OGML was pretty strongly in favor of lynching VitR instead of CES. So I think we're looking at

(Porochaz + mathcam + VitR) or (Poro+ mathcam + CDB). I'm willing to entertain the possibility I might be wrong about either SpyreX or GC, but either one seems unlikely at this point. I am not willing to entertain either MBL, Albert, or chamber as possible scum, and I really doubt BooKitty could be scum here.

Today, I'd be willing to lynch porochaz, mathcam, or VitR. Actually, the more I think about it, maybe we should just lynch mathcam or porochaz today; emotionally, I really want to lynch VitR, especally since basically every post of his just makes me scream in frustration at this point, but as a practical matter, it's harder to see a scenario where either mathcam or porochaz flips town.

[Yosarian2]

Fine.

unvote:VitR

vote:Porochaz

Doesn't give us as much information, but I would be pretty surprised if Prozac flips town at this point, and getting the scum group down to 2 members should make it a lot harder for town to screw this one up.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Take a look at that list. a few posts ago From my point of view, the only way porochaz could be town is if either you're scum and did an amazing job bussing LML day 1, or if spyrex is scum and did an even more amazing job bussing STD for days, Either is possible, but neither seems that likely to me right now. Or I guess if the scum group is smaller then I expect and there's only 2 scum left, but that seems unlikely, there's been a lot of town power.

Do you disagree with any of my reads?

[Yosarian2]

Yos's about-face on Porochaz is the scummiest thing I've seen so far from him this game. Maybe from anyone.

And yet you have no problem voting for poro still? It's given me pause.

Yeah, mathcam is really creeping me out in the last two pages.

unvote:porochaz

vote:mathcam

He's the most obvious scum at this point anyway.

[Yosarian2]

I mean, especally this paragraph:

Well, the situation it evokes is one of Yos and poro being scum together, and Yos reluctantly realizing that despite a full game of running under the radar, the poro lynch is actually quite viable. So he figures he's running out of scumbuddies, and has to play his cards pretty carefully, dissuading the poro bandwagon as long as he feasibly can before it's inevitable, at which point he has to whole-heartedly be in support of it. So while he starts off eager to propose alternative lynches ("Sure, poro is one option, but you know, I was just thinking that there's

also

a mathcam over there...amirite?), he quickly converts to looking like he wasn't opposed to the lynch via a flimsy excuse ("Sure, I always knew poro was scum, was just trying for a better information lynch"), intense buddying ("Hey, obvtown buddies! No way I'd vote for you!") and threatening (e.g., "the only way poro is town is if you're scum").

That, frankly, just makes it sound to me like mathcam is scum, possibly scum with porochaz.

But all day, his posting has been really bad. Taking seriously the idea that I'm scum with VitR, trying to manipulate the masons, ect.

His comment on page 149 about how he's been going after porochaz for most of the game gives me pause. But, honestly, if that does mean that mathcam and porochaz aren't scum together, then out of the pair, it's mathcam who looks worse.

[Yosarian2]

I mean, especally this paragraph:

You mean, the paragraph in which I attacked you? Funny that that would give you pause.

The paragraph where you try to link me to porochaz, right after saying that my porochaz vote was "the scummiest thing you've seen all game".

(

I had the courtesy of detailing

how

your posting evoked my Yos-poro-scum-radar. All you've got is "it sounds like"?

It sounded off, like either an attempt to link me to porochaz either becuse you knew he was scum, or, more likely, because you wanted to attack me while still voting porochaz. It just didn't feel right. None of your posting today has.

"It's not impossible" is a bit shy of "taking seriously," but regardless, I'd consider any scumpairing that had an argument to back it up. Trying to manipulate the masons? By saying "Nice post!" Or am I missing the substantive part of your argument. "ect"? Yeah, nice way to make it look like 2 tremendously trivial acts are part of a great conspiracy of scummy things I've done.

None of your suspicions today really make sense to me. You're entertaining all kinds of ideas that just seem to be obviously wrong. And that really sounds like scum in a corner to me. The only way for scum to defeat the POE grindstone at this point is for them to try to convince the town that some of the possibilities they've eliminated should still be viable suspcets.

His comment on page 149 about how he's been going after porochaz for most of the game gives me pause. But, honestly, if that does mean that mathcam and porochaz aren't scum together, then out of the pair, it's mathcam who looks worse.

Okay, do tell. Why did that give you pause? Because you think it's false? Or because of how I brought it up? Note that it was in response to your "theory" that porochaz and I are scum together, and I can't honestly believe you think that's likely.

It gave me pause because it makes sense, and because you're right, that does lower the odds of you and porochaz being scum together. Your paragraph this pages that tried to tie me to porochaz leans in the other way, but still.

Somewhat ironically, though, by lowering in my mind the possibility of you and porochaz being scum together, it makes me want to lynch porochaz less and lynch you more. When I was convinced that both you and porochaz had to be scum together, I didn't care which one of you we lynched today, but you have a valid point there and now I'm thinking that that might not be true.

If only one of the two of you is scum, then I'm thinking it's more likely to be you, based on your behavior during the LML wagon and on your behavior during the STD wagon, and because I did have a strong town read on porochaz for most of the game, even though he's been worthless lately. (That would also mean that ANOTHER one of my town reads is wrong, AGAIN, sigh.)

[Yosarian2]

25 pages left to read, and yep, Im going after ABR, when he has decided to follow DGB, he has been like her lap dog, when he hasn't he's been throwing piles of shit to see what sticks. He finds scum in anyone who disagrees with his opinions and really, someone else tell me, what has he done other than make half assed stances that he has changed a couple of pages (if that) later? He sews discord around you all and you let him.

vote abr

Who, at this point, could AbR possibly be scum with?

[Yosarian2]

To make my last post a little more clear, I think it's extremely unlikely that ABR could be scum with:

CDB (he's been going after the OGML slot hardcore for much of the game)

Porochaz (who Albert's been trying to lynch for a long time)

VitR (who,. again, Albert's shown a willingness to lynch)

Mathcam (he's gone after mathcam with intent to lynch over and over again)

Bookitty

I mean, maybe he's just bussing like crazy, but I can't see any way you could construct a plausible 3 man scum group that includes Albert at this time. Not to mention the fact that he just looked obvtown yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

There are some interactions between mathcam and STD that do not look like buddies. I can reference them all for you given time (/broken record).

Interesting. Where? If you don't have time to explain, just post numbers would be fine.

[Yosarian2]

VitR, your "case" on me is entirely bullshit, and I'm sure you know that. You're only claiming to have a "strong scumread" on me because you don't like the fact that I've been voting and attacking you.

It's worth pointing out that you claimed to find me less scummy late yesterday, but as soon as I questioned you over your defense of STD, you went right back to attacking me, with even more absurd reasoning.

[Yosarian2]

Just out of curiousity, Yosarian, do you have any comments about my Post 3675?

I already responded to your comment about me and LML, in post 3616.

uls, from my point of view, what happened on day 1 was basically this:

-VitR started out with a vote on LML for a garbage reason

-I called him out for it as my first non-random vote (obviously not a very strong vote at the time, just a better then random one, with a little showmanship added to it to try to help me get a read on VitR)

-As the day went on, though, LML became increasingly scummy, while VitR seemed to just fade off the case, unvote him, and basically fade off into scummy nothingness

-I drove the LML wagon, with a little help from GC and from PJ but from basically no one else for most of the day. I lynched him almost singlehandedly, against the strong opposition of a number of vocal townies like DGB.

Now at the time, since I remembered attacking VitR for his attack on LML, I was thinking that they weren't scum together. But looking at it now, it really looks to me like it was probably an early-game distancing vote with no follow through at all.

Take a closer look at day 1 again, and see who it was who really lynched LML. It was me, pretty much on my own.

As for your speculation about me being scum *with* VitR; all I can say is that if you think that, you probably haven't read the whole game yet.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, are you deliberately trying to harass me with Post 3780 or something? That post wasn't at all directed at you and didn't contain anything that should be new to you, yet you have to barge in with this spiteful post. Act like an adult.

Do you really think you can bully me into ceasing my attacks you by pretending to be insulted when I accurately describe your behavior this game, VitR? There's clearly nothing in post 3780 that anyone could be offended about. Your case on me is BS, and you only have been claiming to find me scummy because you don't like the fact that I'm attacking you. You've actually admitted that, on several occasions, although you usually claimed you "didn't like the way I was attacking you" or that "I wouldn't be so certain of my scum reads" or some similar wording. The intent is the same; you've been voting me basically nonstop because you don't like the fact I've been attacking you, it's almost pure OMGUS and has been all game. None of that is "offensive", or "immature", or "spiteful"; it's my analysis of your play this game, and why I think that you're scum.

No amount of OMGUS attacks, insults, pretenses of being offended, or anything else along those lines is going to change my opinion of your alignment. If you change my mind about your alginement, either change my mind with rational arguments, or else just start playing in a more pro-town way.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, you continuing to attack VitR isn't remotely productive.

Chamber, you sticking up for your friends who you don't even have a read on, just because you think I'm picking on them, isn't remotely productive. You've been doing it all game, and it's really not helping anything. If you think VitR is town, please say so; I am interested in what you think about him.

[Yosarian2]

Honestly, every time I see that you've posted in the thread, I kinda don't want to open it, because I know there's a decent chance I'll get upset by it.

...

You do understand that I'm allowed to call you scum if I think you're scum, right? And if you attack me with an argument that's BS, I'm clearly going to call you out on it.

None of that is offensive, or "picking on you". It's called "playing mafia".

Frankly, the incredibly hostility you've had towards me for most of this game, and the way that I can't ask you anything without you flipping out on me with page after page of nonsense attacks (while never actually bothering to answer any my question) have really made this game a pretty miserable experience for me. I attack you, you respond by attacking me and claim to think I'm scum. I take your argument apart, you even admit that your argument was wrong (like you did about your "false dichotomy" argument earlier today), but then you keep voting me anyway.

At this point, either you're scum, or if you're town you've been tunneling on me all game with nothing but OMGUS and acting in in an incredibly anti-town way, basically to the exclusion of doing much real scumhunting, and it's been just unbelievably frustrating to play with. I think you're probably scum, and I'm not going to change my mind without a reason to do so; that doesn't actually mean you have to flip out at me and lash out at me all game just because I suspect you. If you are town, it's just not helpful behavior, and all it does is keep my vote on you, and frankly force me to skim your posts rather then hear you repeat the same points over and over again that I've already refuted or that you can't possibly really believe.

[Yosarian2]

I complained about you stepping in to a discussion with undo that contained nothing new using phrases like "entirely bullshit" and "even more absurd", after I'd already said that I was done discussing things with you.

I think it did contain something new, actually. I was pointing out that at the end of the day yesterday, you seemed to be having a change of heart about me, but then I asked you about your defense of STD and then you went right back to attacking me. I don't believe I had mentioned that point before.

I was not trying to be offensive, and I'm sorry if it came off that way. Let me say instead that it seems like you seem to take one or two pretty weak arguments against me, and then re-word them and restate them in a bunch of different ways to make it sound like a more convincing case. I wasn't trying to offend you by that; actually, I was trying to imply that I believe you're doing that strategically, to fluff up a case against me and to try and discredit my case against you.

I never actually said anything negative about you, and I was never trying to "troll" or "flame" you; all of those terms were descriptions of

the case you were making

, never of you personally. IMHO, in mafia, "bullshit" isn't an insult, it's a vitally important skill (especially when you draw a scum role).

At every point, I've just said what I thought and tried to see your point of view, but I'll concede that I could have been more polite about it on several occasions.

Ok, let's try to just move past all that, then. I still need to try to get a read on you, and I have serious doubts both ways at this point, so let's try it this way.

Who do you think is scum right now? Other then me, the only comments I've seen you say recently are a vague "Poro wouldn't be a bad lynch" and a much earlier attack on Green Crayons, but that doesn't really tell me what you *think*, and you haven't commented on most of the people in the game, certainly not since the STD flip. If you had to guess, right now, who do you think is scum, and who do you think is town?

[Yosarian2]

My preference would be Yosarian for the lynch because I can't find very much that I couldn't see coming from scum

You mean, besides the fact that I played a major role pushing both scum lynches we've had so far, and I defended PJ when people were trying to wagon him, and I defened Sotty against a wagon, and I defended DGB for most of the game...

I really don't get why you suspect me, when I feel like I've done at least as much to help the town get to the good position it's in now as anyone else has. I have been wrong a few times, certanly, but overall, I've had a really good game so far and have done a ton to help the town get to a point where I don't think we can lose.

Really, all I can say is that if I was scum, this game would have gone very differently.

[Yosarian2]

besides the fact that I played a major role pushing both scum lynches we've had so far,

Bullshit. You had 0 role in the std lynch.

I counted votes early in the day, and I do not think there were enough votes to lynch STD without my vote. Maybe it would have happened at deadline anyway, or maybe the replcament of PJ would have changed things, I don't know. But I certainly do think I played a major role in the lynch of STD.

[Yosarian2]

I haven't got to the std lynch yet ( I replaced on late that day) but weren't you pushing DGB when I entered?

No.

I was questioning DGB, because I wanted to be sure she was town before I lynhced STD, but I never actually attacked her.

When you get a chance, take a look at my posts again. I asked her what I'm sure looked like a really bizzare question and then did everything I could to pressure her to take it seriously and answer it, and then when she did, I declared her town and voted for STD. I never actually made a case against her (and I easily could have; she did defend LML pretty hard day 1, for example). If I was trying to lynch DGB, it would look very different then that.

I understand that looked weird, but DGB is really hard to get a definitive read off of. I was expecting her to be alive for most of the rest of the game, and really wanted to confirm (in my own mind) that she was town so I'd know I could listen to her.

[Yosarian2]

And the process by which you determined STD was scum made no sense whatsoever.. as you berated DGB about a false dichotomy that one of {her, STD} had to be scum.

As I think I made clear, I was deliberately exaggerating the certainty I had on that score in order to get a reaction out of DGB that would allow me to read her.

That being said, I still say that that made perfect sense. There was almost no way you could get a 4 man scumgroup yesterday that didn't include either DGB or STD.

You're right, early in this game, I thought STD was town. I also thought Albert was town, DGB was town, PJ was town, Sotty was town, Bookitty was town, GC was town, Porochaz was town, and several others as well. By day 4, I knew that some of my early town reads had to be wrong.

By the way, I didn't "dismiss" your case. In fact I agreed that it made sense and said so in the thread, and that was really the point where I started wondering about STD.

So why are you overstating your involvement? It feels hugely scummy.

I don't think I am. Almost from the start of the day, I expressed a willingness to lynch STD, said that I thought he was the most likely scum, and I said over and over again that either STD or DGB had to be scum. I did want to get an answer from DGB before actually voting, but I think I played a pretty big role in driving the STD wagon yesterday, even before I cast that vote.

[Yosarian2]

You are guilty of self delusion on a scale that's incomprehensible to me if you are town and truly believe that you were a factor in getting him lynched beyond placing a single vote at a time when you were in a position where you really couldn't do anything else.

Chamber, is there a reason that you've spent so much time this game insulting me and trying to block me from doing anything useful at all? It's really starting to get on my nerves at this point.

[Yosarian2]

You are guilty of self delusion on a scale that's incomprehensible to me if you are town and truly believe that you were a factor in getting him lynched beyond placing a single vote at a time when you were in a position where you really couldn't do anything else.

Chamber, is there a reason that you've spent so much time this game insulting me and trying to block me from doing anything useful at all? It's really starting to get on my nerves at this point.

I wont speak for other moments, because I haven't been going out of my way to be so; I'm just an abrasive person. But in this moment I wasn't intending to insult you at all. I was stating a scum read first and foremost, and I was, if you are town, trying to make you take a moment to self reflect on that incident and think about whether you really had the impact you seem to perceive.

It's just really frustrating for you, of all people, to try to accuse me of being "slow" on voting STD yesterday, when I probably would have got there sooner if you hadn't made it so difficult for me to question DGB for reasons I still don't fully understand. But, whatever.

[Yosarian2]

I mean, first you tried to stop me from attacking CES (but refused to defend him when asked), then you tried to stop me from questioning DGB (but refused to give any kind of read on her), and today you've been trying to stop me from attacking VitR (while refusing to defend him, or to give any kind of read on him.)

Am I just not supposed to play mafia here or something? How am I supposed to accomplish anything if you attack me and get in the way any time I try to question or attack anyone in the game, but then refuse to explain why you're doing it or to give your own read on any of those people?

[Yosarian2]

@Yos and VitR, how many games have you guys played together? Has there been any history of antagonism between you?

We've played some games together. From memory, I think that we have often ended up voting each other because of clashing playstyles, but usually not to this extent.

His playstyle this game does feel different from what I remember of him as town. I can't remember him ever being this defensive, or tunneling as much as he's done this game. That being said, I haven't played at all for about a year, and I haven't played with him in a lot longer then that I think, so I don't claim to be an expert in his meta.

Really, the only thing that's giving me pause now is that he honestly seems offended that I keep calling him scum and saying his attack on me was bad, in a way that I wouldn't really expect to see from scum, and it doesn't feel like he's doing it for tactical reasons either. However, that's still really the only town tell I have on him; I do still tend to think he's more likely scum then not.

[Yosarian2]

There were plenty of people around at the doc claim for example to make that lynch happen.

(shrug) Once STD fake claimed and was counterclaimed, he was dead, sure. I don't know if he would have been pushed to that point if it hadn't been for my vote on him and my constant repetition that he was likely scum, If I had instead voted DGB early in the day and then stayed on her, Green Crayons probably would have stayed on DGB as well, and then I'm not sure STD ever gets pressured to the point of fake claiming.

I'm not trying to take credit for the STD lynch, but I think I did play a significant supporting role in it actually happening yesterday,

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so Yos's 378 came at 3:04 pm after the server came back up:

Sweet, game is back up.

Let me unvote my lurker vote, and re-read quickly.

Nine minutes later, at 3:13, he posts 379:

One of my favorite things to do is to find the village idiot and hunt scum off of the wagon. That used to be a really easy way to find scum. Also, when you have an outspoken "foot in mouth player" (such as myself and DGB), we become mafia fodder as well.

Ugh. This one makes me cringe, especially since I remember LML as being especally hard to lynch most of the time. Is he really using the "I'm a village idiot so scum like to target me" defense here? His posts have felt off to me for much of the game, and this just feels like a scummy defense.

The biggest problem I have with his play so far, though, is that there's very little real scumhunting. Most of his posts seem to be him making excuses for not doing much proper scumhunting yet, which really bothers me, and feels both out of character and scummy. His attempts to have it both ways with Tigras still bothers me, but it wouldn't bother me so much if he was also scumhunting. The only other real scumhunting he did was his STD vote, but that also feels pretty weak to me; he doesn't really explain it, and he doesn't press it, or try to put pressure on STD, or try to get STD to answer any questions or anything.

VitimanR feels less suspicious to me now. Still wouldn't mind an Undo wagon.

For now, vote:loudmouthlee

It takes five minutes to type Yos's 379. It takes about two minutes to skim LML's ISO at impossibly fast speed.

Yos would have us believe that in

nine minutes

, he did all of the following:
* reread the game well enough to find that LML quote
* read a little bit of VitR
* read a little undo
* processed the information, came to several conclusions
* typed up his post for five minutes.

Not buying it. This post by Yos (379) was synthesized over the server outage, and I believe he lied about doing a reread.

Actually, I was trying to vote LML right when the server went down. Patrick posted that Nat was replaced in post 339, then LML made his incredibly scummy post 343. I was literally in the middle of writing a big post to vote for LML on May 21st when mafiascum went down and wouldn't let me post it. Frustating. So I made basically that post when the server came back up; I unvoted Nat right away, then I typed out the big post.

So, yes; I was already pretty sure what I was going to do when I came back. I did re-read a little bit to confirm that my memory of events was correct, before and while I was making that post.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, I was trying to vote LML right when the server went down. Patrick posted that Nat was replaced in post 339, then LML made his incredibly scummy post 343. I was literally in the middle of writing a big post to vote for LML on May 21st when mafiascum went down and wouldn't let me post it. Frustating. So I made basically that post when the server came back up; I unvoted Nat right away, then I typed out the big post.

So, yes; I was already pretty sure what I was going to do when I came back. I did re-read a little bit to confirm that my memory of events was correct, before and while I was making that post.

So after you said you'd "reread", you didn't read any of the posts other players made, right?

I said I'd do a "quick re-read". To be clear, what that means is that I got on, unvoted right away before I had a chance to even look at any of the other posts that had been made since the server got on (I've learned the hard way that when you're not sure what's going on you unvote first and then check the status of the game afterwards, not the other way around.)

As it turned out, not much had changed since before the server went down. But I didn't know that when I made that first post.

Or any of LML's three new posts, including his VCA post?

Yeah, I read the two pages or so of posts that had come since the game came back up.

Does it really take you more then "9 minutes" to read 2 pages of posts, MBL?

And you chose to ignore all of those posts and just roll with your LML suspicions from memory, a week after you'd last read anything anyone posted?

Uh, I didn't ignore anything. What are you talking about?

For the record, I had been thinking about voting LML for a while, once the lurker situation had resolved itself. I had been increasingly suspicious of him, as you can see from my questions of him in previous posts.

You typed that "VitaminR feels less suspicious now".. did you reread his posts to determine that?

No; as I had said several times that day, I was assuming at the time that VitR and LML were probably not scum together, because of VitR's early attack on LML. The main reason I feel differently now is because VitR's attacks on LML basically stopped during the second half of the day, after we got back from the server being down.

I never claimed to have re-read the entire game before making that post, or even implied it, and I can't see what would make you assume that.

This is a really weird line of questioning, MBL; I'm not even sure what you're trying to get at. Are you accusing me of voting without re-reading the entire game? Well, yes, obviously I did; do you always re-read every post in the entire game before you do anything? I checked to see what was going on, made sure nobody was close to lynch or anything, took a quick look at ongoing stuff, didn't see anything particularly relevant, and then made the post I had been about to make anyway.

[Yosarian2]

Haha, scum couldn't help themselves. "Hurr durr, let's lynch off the Boo-wagon for greater justice. Tee hee!"

Uh. What the hell are you talking about?

If there's two wagons, and one is on scum, I always assume that the other one was being pushed by scum. That assumption is right 99% of the time. You didn't seem to any problem with me making that argument at the time.

I mean, are you really going to just go back and quote every logical argument I've made all game and then say "hurr durr, tee hee" and pretend that's a counterargument?

[Yosarian2]

In fact, the argument that there was at least one scum on the bookitty wagon is *still* probably correct; I do still think mathcam is more likely scum then not here.

[Yosarian2]

You do realize that by the end of the day yesterday, once she understood what I had been trying to do, DGB had realized I was town, right?

[Yosarian2]

Why would you quote all that and then ignore the part where she actually got a solid town read on me at the end of the day, around the same time I got a solid town read on her?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I read the two pages or so of posts that had come since the game came back up.

Does it really take you more then "9 minutes" to read 2 pages of posts, MBL?

It takes five minutes to speed-type your post on LML at 40 WPM. That leaves you four minutes to read two full pages of posts, including giant posts by Zorblag and STD. And that leaves you zero minutes to think.

Zorblag's 354
LML's VCA
STD's blarg where he unvoted LML

You didn't read that shit in four minutes.

Nothing in Zorblog's post or STD's post had any direct bearing on my case on LML, and anyone can see that in about 5 seconds. I actually did go back and read STD's post in more detail and respond to it after I posted my LML case, as you can see.

As for the rest of your post; how long does it take you to read 2 pages and type a couple of paragraphs?

[Yosarian2]

[quote="In post 3934
Also, LOL @ "solid town read". You really are the master of hyperbole this game.[/quote]

It's simply a fact. DGB knew I was town by the end of the day yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Yos just seems to have too much confidence in his beliefs at every step along the way. Too sure that Boo was town. Too sure that one of STD/DGB had to be scum. Too sure that DGB saying "blarg" meant that STD was scum.

Maybe I'm just better at this game then you are.

[Yosarian2]

This is really the stupidest wagon based on the stupidest reasoning I've seen all game.

Anyway, if this pants-on-head shit actually gets me lynched, let me just say that MBL is still probably town, dispite his insane play today; and, of course

I guess MBL is a lot more convincing than I am.

Unvote, Vote: Yos

VitR is still scum.

[Yosarian2]

-OGML (CDB) was probably not scum with VitR

-Mathcam may not be scum with Porochaz

-Chamber, MBL, Bookitty, and Spyrex are all still probably town

If there's 3 scum left, it's probably (CDB or VitR) + (Mathcam and/or Porochaz) + possibly Someone else (I'm actually leaning towards Green Crayons for a third).

If I had to guess, I'd say VitR+Mathcam+Green Crayons

Prozac isn't a terrible lynch, POE and all that and he's kind of been worthless lately, but I still kind of feel like he's going to flip town.

[Yosarian2]

Also, Green Crayons's excuses last page for joining my wagon were hella scummy.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, when did you change your mind on Spyrex?

Yesterday, during that end-of-the-day insanity, someone pointed out that Spyrex has been attacking STD for most of the game; I looked back and they were correct, he had been.

So, MBL, why are really you attacking me here? I know it's not the silly theory you were pushing that I conspired with daytalking scum during the outage to bus LML or something like that; that's already been factually refuted by the masons on two separate counts. You then went back and cherry picked a bunch of random quotes from dead townies who were suspicious of me (our of context, of course, and ignoring quotes from those same people who thought I was town), but that's clearly not why you suspect me either, even if it's a good way for you to drum up support. So really, what is it? Just late-game paranoia?

[Yosarian2]

Here, found it:

So Spyre's ISO is not highly populated with posts, but it's basically (1) STD is scum and we should lynch him and (2) DGB is cool and we should not lynch her.


Not what I was expecting (I didn't remember anything abotu Spyre's play except his post about OGML).

After this post, I went back and re-read SpyreX's posts keeping in mind STD was scum, and yeah, SpyreX is probably not scum with STD.

[Yosarian2]

I guess MBL is a lot more convincing than I am.

Unvote, Vote: Yos

I don't know about the rest of them but I didn't actually find MBL's points to be at all convincing. I just want the day to end, don't particularly mind a yos lynch, and it had the momentum.

Or, you know, you could actually put a little effort into the game and try to lynch scum instead of just trying to end the day with any wagon, no matter how obviously terrible.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Juls better be right.

You know that she's not. You know that I'm going flip town if you lynch me today.

I really don't get why anybody is actually voting me here. MBL's entire argument has already been confirmed by the masons to be wrong; the masons night-talk apparently happens on-site, which means that the scum's almost certanly is as well, and that means that his entire absurd conspiracy theory of day-talking scum was proven to be impossible long before he even finished making it. You can even see MBL's entire thought process; it's the typical tin foil hat thing of "what if I was wrong about everything and the scum group is the one that makes the least sense" that townies do late game when they get paranoid. It happens all the time. The problem with that is, the thing that makes the least sense usually isn't actually true.

On an unrelated note, if we're that close to deadline, fine.

unvote:mathcam

vote:porochaz

Still not the best lynch we could do today, but it's not the worst, either.

But if you do lynch me, you guys had god damn better lynch VitR and Mathcam tomorrow and the next day. I know you all decided to ignore DGB as soon as she died, but you had better not ignore me. If you people lynch me on this complete BS case and then lose the game for the town by not listening to me after I flip town, I swear I'm going to haunt your asses.

[Yosarian2]

Huh, this is...interesting.

I think Yos makes a lot of sense as scum if Poro flips scum. I'd say lynch Poro first and see. If Poro flips scum, I'll be on Yos like white on rice. If Poro flips town, I might actually go read VitR vs. Yos.

This post doesn't really make sense if Mathcam is scum and porochaz is town, like I was just assuming (literally 15 seconds ago). Something's wrong here.

[Yosarian2]

Either Mathcam's town, or Mathcam and Porochaz are scum together. Nothing else makes sense here.

confirm vote: porochaz

[Yosarian2]

Ugh, but then 3988 is icky too

How is it "icky"?

If Mathcam is scum, and Porochaz is town, Mathcam wouldn't say "if Porochaz flips town, then yosarian is town". It doesn't make sense as a play.

[Yosarian2]

What's wrong with 3988?

It took him 6 minutes to go from "not the best lynch" to "confirm vote"

So it's "icky" for me to change my mind based on new evidence?

[Yosarian2]

It's not scummy to change your mind. It's scummy to have a drastic change with weak evidence. How does what you posted not make sense so much so that you are suddenly certain of your poro vote?

I'm not "certain" of anything, of course. I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know why MBL seemed to think I'm always certain all the time; I'm almost never certain of anything in a mafia game, and certanly not in this game. (There was only one time this game I was really 100% sure of something, and I ended up being wrong that time anyway.)

Earlier today, I was thinking that the most likely scenario (say, 60% chance) was that mathcam and porchaz were scum together. That dropped somewhat after Mathcam pointed out that he'd attacked Porochaz earlier; at that point, I would have guessed that there was maybe a 60% chance mathcam was scum and poro was town, a 20% chance poro was town and mathcam was scum, and a 20% chance they were both scum together. When I reluctantly voted for porchaz, it was based on the idea that there was maybe a 30%-40% chance porochaz was scum.

But why would hypo-mathcam-scum make a post that would clear me if porochaz flips town, right before a porochaz lynch? Doesn't make sense. That really increased the odds of porchaz being scum with mathcam (which would mean mathcam is trying to set me up), and it increased the odds of mathcam being town (in which case porochaz is pretty likely to be scum; there just aren't that many suspects left).

I now think the instead of something like a 40% chance of poro being scum, in which case I'll reluctantly go along with him as a compromise lynch, there's something like a 60% chance of being scum, in which case he's probably the best possible lynch.