Open 609: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[Luna Fox]

Taken with a grain of salt tho, Alch is still being PoE'd out, but if Alch had attacked my ika townread i probs would have switched my vote towards him.

[Luna Fox]

Huh, i forgot about that.

[Luna Fox]

I would like to know where ika, Max, Mario and Perfomer currently stand in general
I have a weird feeling.

[Luna Fox]

If he wasn't bused then:

Votecount 1.21

Silverjaws - 7 - Shiro, Alchemist21, Vedith, MarioManiac4, Firebringer, Diego1487, Luna Fox

MarioManiac4 - 3 - Bellaphant, Performer, MaxwellPuckett
Diego1487 - 1 - Silverjaws
Alchemist21 - 1 - PantherPunt

Not Voting: ika

Deadline: (expired on 2015-09-19 23:45:33)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

You think both of his partners were onto Mario, and one of them decided to go onto Mario again?

[Luna Fox]

1.
VOTE: NO LYNCH

Took some time looking at the open setup on page 1 and we have 3 goons and 7 townies, meaning only 3 pr vts. Unless we get an extremely good case on someone, I'm thinking no lynch right now. If we mislynch a pr vt, we only have 2 pr vts left. Then n2 comes, we have 1 pr vt left, making it harder to win.

2.
But if we ultimately choose no lynch on d2, worst comes to worst, we have 1 pr vt killed.

Since someone made a shot on n1, we have a Cop or a 1 more shot from the Vig. Provided we don't mislynch and the cop doesn't die tonight, we have another chance for investigation to come through. Also, if we don't mislynch, we have more pr vts left, ones who could put their power to use overnight, and come back in d3 with more results.

3.
Anyway, I'm going back to reading ISOs. If I come up with something, I'll post it.

4.
And what's your case on me then, Ved? You stating that against me, is making me reconsider you as townie. Or at best, a townie who isn't looking in more places.

Who the heck suggest no lynch when we're ahread?
Lynch this pls

[Luna Fox]

Yeah i hadn't counted the votes XD
Just saw that post and im like "Why is this guy not lynched yet"

[Luna Fox]

Also i still believe that lynching/vigging in this order Performer > Alch > Max/Shiro > Shiro/Max will win the game.

[Luna Fox]

Luna, think that Panth is scum once Performer flips scum?

Pant's pushes D1 felt like stubborn town, so maybe not, i'll probably check it vs some VCA on D3 or D4 when we have more flips.
If I'm still alive by then that is.

[Luna Fox]

Is Shiro the only one who actually understood my comment?

I got it too lmao.
And im laughing more at PP not getting it

[Luna Fox]

I was going to say why not wait until LyLo or smth then i realized i sent a vig after you.
Ah well that just means Shiro's more likely to be scum than before.
Also im gonna downgrade my ika read since it's based off gut.

[Luna Fox]

Confirmed Town:

Alchemist (IC)

Towny:

PantherPunt (Play)
Diego1487 (Counterwagon to scum)
Vedith (Play + Scum making a case on them)

ika (Gut)

MarioManiac4 (Because counterwagon to scum)

Nullish Town:

ika (meh, if im wrong about a townread it's probably this one)
Shiro (If Alchemist is scum, Shiro's town as i doubt 2 scum bus'd Silver)

MaxwellPuckett (Play was ok, but wagon position at the end isn't good)

Scum is in, and if not lynch ^:

Alchemist21 (Possible bus on Silver + Way too sure of TTH town)

MaxwellPuckett (Probably scum due to wagon positioning)
Performer (Play)

P-Edit: Do you think scum fake claim IC this early?

[Luna Fox]

^
Still scum.

[Luna Fox]

Shiro made me laugh, please never change ^_^

[Luna Fox]

Inb4 performer doesn't claim because he's not at L-1 anymore.
I'm starting to get suspicious of ika, removing their vote as soon as people are being run up to lynch. If performer flips scum this needs to be scrutinized tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

I'd be more happy for the vig to shoot Shiro for VCA purposes.

[Luna Fox]

Silverjaws

- 7 - Shiro,

Alchemist21

, Vedith, MarioManiac4,

Firebringer

, Diego1487, Luna Fox

Well Diego's here too i guess, i just don't see silverjaws pulling that case on TTH as Scum on Scum.
I'd be happy if the vig shot any of the unknown heres because im pretty sure there must be 1 scum busing here.

[Luna Fox]

seems like a lot of people wanted to clear TTH/Diego for it. that's the perfect motivation for scum!Silver to do it

Did ppl want to clear TTH BEFORE Silver came into the picture? No.
People were defending TTH from your case on her if anything, seems like the perfect scum motivation to come and try to get a mislynch through.

[Luna Fox]

I think Shiro's on the Townier end of the spectrum. Why do you think she's a good vig shot?

Because no one else makes sense.
Mario was counterwagon to Silver, and is still being pushed by Performer.
Vedith was also a scum case made by Silver.
Diego, I already mentioned.

The 2 remaining are me and Shiro, and I know i'm town.

[Luna Fox]

Actually thinking about it ika's jump off the Silver wagon would very well be to avoid leaving scum busing after it was inevitable, so yeah ika's a good vig shot.

[Luna Fox]

2.just Alchemist iirc, which I still cannot understand. was hoping he'd elaborate on that, but has not.

At the time silver came in I was also defending TTH from you tho.

[Luna Fox]

Even discounting Performer's play what you do you think of Flow Alpha's stance re:me? I had him as town for that, but now im not sure, because Performer's being scummy all over.

[Luna Fox]

I'm sure you mean if I flip town

I'm sure i don't

[Luna Fox]

I'm pretty sure ika decided to remove the vote off his partner now after the threat to hammer. Just like with Silverjaws.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah Ika unvoted him, just like he unvoted Silver.

[Luna Fox]

Oh my

[Luna Fox]

All 4 of my PoE flipped town, that's... demoralizing.
At least now i know i should revisit my townreads.
Also does anyone else think the 3rd role should claim now? if we mislynch today tomorrow's Lylo (Currently 5-2)

[Luna Fox]

Silverjaws

- 7 -

Shiro

,

Alchemist21

, Vedith, MarioManiac4,

Firebringer

, Diego1487, Luna Fox
MarioManiac4 - 3 -

Bellaphant

,

Performer

,

MaxwellPuckett

Diego1487 - 1 -

Silverjaws

Alchemist21

- 1 - PantherPunt

Not Voting: ika

Hmm

Performer

- 6 -

Alchemist21

, Luna Fox,

Shiro

, MarioManiac4, Vedith, ika
Diego1487 - 1 -

Performer

Not Voting:

MaxwellPuckett

, Diego1487, PantherPunt

[Luna Fox]

ika
Mario
Panther
Vedith
Diego

2 scum and 3 town in here.
Still doubt Diego was bus'd.

I'll have to revisit the others.
I'll have to check their read and vote progression over time, but it's past midnight right now.

Leaning on voting ika right now.

[Luna Fox]

Oh yeah right, Mario was CW to scum, but his wagon was full of conf town, im gonna check if there was any unknown/scum pushing there before.

[Luna Fox]

Ok yeah, Mario was never voted by Unknown/Scum on D1, which means he's not clear anymore just for being a counter wagon.

[Luna Fox]

i feel ignored

Did you need something?

Well either way im too tired right to think right now.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah im thinking that at this point clearing diego just because i doubt there's a bus chance is kinda meh =/
Just like clearing Mario for being a CW specially because he has only been voted by Known town on D1.

The fact that all my PoE flipped town is really demoralizing me and i need to think this from a more calm manner tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

So i'm here now. This will take a while, while i'd prefer to have another conf town (a.k.a the 3rd PR to claim, or a potential 2 conf towns in the event of a cop with an inno) to make this easier im not going to force them if they don't want to, i'm going to wait a bit because an extra conf town would help greatly on the analisis.

I'm still currently leaning on voting ika today, but mario's "looks like im the scum designated mislynch of today" is weird, since im the only one that changed their stance from before at the start, and opted to vote ika, who im thinking of voting.

Anyway, just food for thought, be back later.

[Luna Fox]

That does help a lot actually, if no one CCs you're conf town, that simplifies my pool of possible scum candidates to:
Mario
Panther
Vedith
Diego

2 town / 2 scum.

That's a 50/50 chance to vote scum if i were to vote randomly, those are already great odds.
Anyways analysis coming soonish.

[Luna Fox]

Performer

- 6 -

Alchemist21

, Luna Fox,

Shiro

, MarioManiac4, Vedith,

ika

Diego1487 - 1 -

Performer

Not Voting:

MaxwellPuckett

, Diego1487, PantherPunt

There's 1-2 scum among Vedith, MM4.

If someone CCs ika then there's guaranteed 1 scum among ika and whoever CCs ika.

I'm going to look at Vedith's and MM4's reads and progression as well as MM4's alt/predecessor's reads. Thinking about it, im still iffy about sparrowbird's L-1 vote on bella, specially now that we know she's town...

[Luna Fox]

i just realized that scum probably knows what ika's PR is, so i dont know why ika didnt claim the actual PR. Anyway:

Spoiler: Sparrowbird/Mario

Welcome to Shitfest 2015!

Vote:

Bellaphant

This is so I have enough time to read shit without it growing so fast I never catch up!

Note this was an L-1 vote

Sparrowbird
ika -> Correct
Firebringer -> Correct
Vedith -> ???

PantherPunt -> ???
Luna Fox -> Correct
Flow Alpha -> Correct
TellTaleHeart -> Correct

Alchemist21 -> Wrong
MaxwellPuckett -> Wrong

Lizard_Buttock -> Correct
Shiro -> Wrong

Bellaphant -> Wrong

I would prefer to lynch

Silverjaws

than

TTH

.

Interesting to note, Sparrow/Mario keep avoiding mentioning anything related to why they wouldn't prefer to lynch TTH over Silver, despite being asked multiple times by panther.

There are more scummy players.

Can you help me out and give some semblance of support for any of your reads? I don't understand why you keep refusing to do so, tbh. I mean- unless you are scum and are trying to avoid spewing your team since others have meta on you.

The reason I made a fucking alt is that I'm fucking tired of meta.
And my reads are actually mostly gut.

Silverjaws

has slanged mud at everyone, so I'm scumreading him. You and Luna reads as classic TvT to me.

Ika

is ika and he basically has an activity tell that is basically never broken. I see scum movitation in clogging up the thread, and

Alchemist

is the only one apart from you and Luna, who are townreads, to do that. Plus

Alchemist

's post 435 almost seems like guilt/fustration that he helped make his buddy replace out.
Apart from that, yeah, mostly gut. (And gut adds to the reads I've mentioned anyway.)

I promise if somebody hammers

Silverjaws

I'll read this clusterfuck <3

I'm, like, sort of around?
I didn't mean I won't catch up, I mean I won't read the tvtvs (IMO) that transpired over a few pages and changed pretty much naught.
I'm leaning

Alchemist

for the S, but it may well be you.

I'm leaning Alchemist for the S, but it may well be you.

Oook eh exactly what are you scumreading on Panth cause that is some odd accusations. You are calling scum m top town read here.

I'm saying I see Luna as more town them him and I believe LunavPPv

Alchemist

is TvTvS

Question if you read this, but now that alch is IC what's your opinion on this?

VOTE: silverjaws

VOTE: Performer

It's pretty obvious

Performer

got his pants in a twist at Silver getting run up on d1.

Alchemist

could be third scum but I honestly suspect

ika

at this point.

Eh, i think mario might be town after all, interesting things to note, his reads were more or less correct D1, but not D2, same case as mine so i don't mind it as much.

[Luna Fox]

I'm not saying i can't be, but my role PM is town obviously im not going to scumhunt myself.

[Luna Fox]

Nah ika's probably not scum, unless there's a CC, ika just probably didn't realize that scum already know who the last role is. If there's a CC then maybe.

[Luna Fox]

you realzie that scum pick the roles right?

they know what i am

That's the point, so why hide it and not let town know what you are?

[Luna Fox]

Do you have anything good that could helps us figure out who's scum? Even someone not being tracked anywhere could be good information.

[Luna Fox]

orz

Oh well

[Luna Fox]

So who are we looking at today then?
Ika is confirmed town at least.

Still the same pool of 5 (Me, You, Diego, PP, Mario)
I know i'm town im trying to figure out which half is scum.

[Luna Fox]

This is mostly because my whole PoE flipping town means that i misread 2 people as town, so i need to do a global reset and restart.

[Luna Fox]

My current main point of contention is that Panther Punt's entire reads list has been consistently wrong, which usually tends to be more indicative of scum than town, of course this can't be fully verified without me or diego flipping, while im fine flipping myself, that would result in a 1v1 between Panther and Diego tomorrow, which still doesn't help us, im trying to narrow down who the 2nd one is atm.

[Luna Fox]

I also think that Alch is his partner

No

[Luna Fox]

Obviously not the innocent child

[Luna Fox]

I guess i can see why alch didnt die overnight if Vedith's scum, lol.

Vote: Vedith

[Luna Fox]

Alch not dying over night was a point raised by himself at day start.
Vedith forgetting he's the Innocent Child could very well be the reason.

Although today we're def lynching between ika and Vedith, if we're wrong lynch the other one tomorrow.

P-Edit: Actually i was believing you until you said Alch was possible scum.

[Luna Fox]

So both me and my partner forgot?

That's just you trying to a mis lynch hard.

Actually that's a good point... tho it depends on who your partner is.
Do you see anyone else in this playerlist that would forget that alch is the IC?

[Luna Fox]

Oh wow thanks for ensuring i survive to LyLo.

[Luna Fox]

Nah it's fine.
I'm pretty good at LyLo, hence why im usually NK'd before then.
Tho obviously people in here wouldn't know that.

[Luna Fox]

You do realize that you mudslinging at me is only going to make me conf town when you're confirmed scum?
Why do you keep going?

[Luna Fox]

Mudslinging what? I asked who would gain more from it. XD

You said im scum, you keep saying im the last scum, but after you flip scum, people will obviously look at that and notice that you obviously were trying to get a mislynch and confirm me as town, and now is making me doubt my read on you because i have no idea why scum you would do this... unless of course you're still being derpy just like when you forgot Alch was IC.

I want opinions from the others, specially Alch on this.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah I'm not buying that. I just looked into your day 1 posts, you were pretty much for taking distraction away from Silver and try to put it on Sparrow.
With no reason to see it drop, you stuck to it.

389 Ika as top scum read from 'gut' right?
421 A nice comment to go with Ika top scum read.
497 Voting just after Ika with a sheep vote
506 Not voting for her top 2 scum reads
574 Trying to derail and mislynch
580 As above
584 As above
601 As above
644 As above
692 As above

I think that people will get my point here.
Now trying to derail the Ika wagon, when Ika is scum.

Except im town tho, and if you're town you're just ensuring a game loss by letting scum mislynch me on LyLo, ugh i need to really think about this.

[Luna Fox]

You know what screw it.
I'm not going to let myself fall for that.
If you're town, then you just sold a win to scum for not trying to think that i could be wrong town. I can deal with that.

[Luna Fox]

Actually im thinking the safer option now would be to lynch ika, if ika flips scum then you can go ahead and mislynch me tomorrow and not cause a town loss so

Vote: ika

And if ika flips town i become conf town, this is the better option

[Luna Fox]

Dat hammer

[Luna Fox]

I guess right now im hoping ika flips scum so you guys mislynch me tomorrow and i dont have to be held accountable for a town loss on LyLo.

[Luna Fox]

I got apathetic when all my PoE flipped town anyway.
I don't really have the energy to solve this game.
if ika flips scum speedlynch me tomorrow so i don't have to bother with LyLo.

[Luna Fox]

Is it bad that I'm already going into tinfoil scenarios here?

Probably, if Vedith's town he's helping scum a lot, i don't mind dying to that, which is one of the greatest reasons i switched to ika, an ika scum flip means that tomorrow isnt lylo and town can mislynch me safely.

[Luna Fox]

I just hope Vedith (if town) at least admits and apologizes for doing this after i flip, otherwise i literally have no respect for him.

[Luna Fox]

Conf bias is a thing, i was already apathetic, you have killed the rest of my motivation to actually try and do something, do you promise to at least apologize for not counting the possibility of me being wrong town postgame after i flip town? If i flip scum like you say i will, then it doesn't matter to you, right?

[Luna Fox]

if you guys are gonna speedlynch me based on Vedith's words then do so.
My current best bet for final scum after further analysis is one of Diego/Mario, Panther doesn't make sense for last scum, mostly because i really refuse to believe that no scum bused Silver.

Silverjaws

- 7 -

Shiro

,

Alchemist21

,

Vedith

, MarioManiac4,

Firebringer

, Diego1487, Luna Fox
MarioManiac4 - 3 -

Bellaphant

,

Performer

,

MaxwellPuckett

Diego1487 - 1 -

Silverjaws

Alchemist21

- 1 - PantherPunt

Not Voting:

ika

Hmm

Performer

- 6 -

Alchemist21

, Luna Fox,

Shiro

, MarioManiac4,

Vedith

,

ika

Diego1487 - 1 -

Performer

Not Voting:

MaxwellPuckett

, Diego1487, PantherPunt

Both have points for and against. Mario had no reason to wagon ika-partner at the start of Day 3 unless they planned that bus during the night including ika claiming.
Silver had no reason to make the case against TTH (Now Diego).
But... overall both still look bad on VCA, and i can't make up my mind, most likely i'll get lynched today and Alch will get NK'd, which means the decission is in Panther's hands...

[Luna Fox]

Can we not speedlynch today? I think we've done a decent job this game and it would be a shame to rush recklessly into Lylo and end up losing because of it.

I went to look over Vedith's case on me, and...
I realized now how bad it is and easy to defend against it.

It's basically 1) Accusing me of doing things with the start point that im scum and looking at evidence to fit the case than starting from evidence then realizing im scum. and 2) One of his points is about me not voting ppl im scumreading, when that reads list was sparrowbird's and me quoting it asking for explanations.

He really wasn't paying any attention at all this game.

Anyway im pretty sure it's one of those 2 entirely out of VCA, only one thing bothering me is mario's vote yesterday.

[Luna Fox]

See everyone's scumreading me, that's why i should be lynched today.
I already made all my points towards the 2 people i think are scum.
So come at me and good luck tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

Why did you quote alch's post?

I was talking about the "rush recklessly" into LyLo kinda thing.

[Luna Fox]

It is fairly obvious who the Final 3 are going to be.
I think Panther is 1 of the town of the 3.
I'm just asking him to think clearly before voting tomorrow because I know he's been after TTH/Diego all game.

[Luna Fox]

It's just that...
After all my PoE flipped town yesterday.
I feel kinda like lost, and i don't think i'd trust myself to stand on LyLo at the final 3, i rather be lynched today so you guys clear that out of your minds.
I'm probably not going to do anything else for this DP, feel free to discuss all you want, but lynch me at the end.

[Luna Fox]

Oh wait, i was going to reply to that and ended up talking about that, oh well w/e, no one here cares about my opinion since im obviously scum and everyone's going to lynch me.

[Luna Fox]

Oh wait, i was going to reply to that and ended up talking about that, oh well w/e, no one here cares about my opinion since im obviously scum and everyone's going to lynch me.

luna. nobody alive is even voting you.
panther was pushing both counters to silver d1. why is he so town. talk to me.

It's mostly coz i believe at least 1 scum bus'd silver, the only ppl that voted silver that are unflipped are you, me and Diego.
The only issue i have with panther is him having consistently bad reads.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah, also another thing i find odd about PP, is that... every single time someone tries to justify them being alive is because they are self-conscious of their reason of being alive, a.k.a scum that needs a reason to change their reads, while having static reads is a thing scum tends to do, the switch feels unnatural and motivated by a certain dead tracker.

As I said, the only reason giving me pause is that im used to assume there's always at least 1 scum on every lynch wagon and at most AmmountOfLivingScum-1 Even when this hits scum, Although when it hits town it's more of a Min(AmmountOfLivingScum-1 | 2) at least. That's pretty much the basis for my VCA, there are times indeed when a wagon full of town hits scum, but those are rare, since scum are likely to try to get towncred for being on a scum lynch wagon, and even more rare are full town on town wagons, although i've seen them happen.

[Luna Fox]

If you think about it tho ika wanted to hammer Silver, but i stole that from him.

[Luna Fox]

I voted him because i found it odd that he would suspect the IC.
Then i realized "oh wait, we were just talking about why the IC is alive at day start, if he forgot who the IC is, this makes sense".

When he said something about he would have a partner, i said it was a good point, so my next procedure in mind was to check if there was anyone else who would forget that alch was the IC, because if there wasn't then obviously Vedith's point makes sense and i would have unvoted him.

But then he started with all this snark about me being scum and what not, and so i got pissed.

[Luna Fox]

...@ *thumbleweed*

[Luna Fox]

Btw, I assure you that if i go to LyLo with anyone scumreading me it's gonna be a town loss, so unless everyone townreads me lynch me today pls. I sux at defending myself in LyLo because i always assume the first person to vote me is scum and then... i can't see them as town ever...

[Luna Fox]

Panther's votes over time:

Alchemist

, Diego,

Alchemist

,

Alchemist (again)

.
It looks like the only 2 ppl Panther has voted are Diego and Alchemist, of which Alchemist is confirmed town, Panther's votes have never been on scum.

TellTaleHeart / Diego votes over time:

Bella

,

Lizard

,

SilverJaws (Again)

,

Alchemist

, Mario
Probably Town

Sparrowbird/Mario votes over time:

Bella

,

Bella (Again)

, Self-Vote,

Silverjaws

,

Silverjaws (Again)

,

Performer

,

Performer (Again)

, PantherPunt,

Performer

,

ika

, -Not counting that shiro vote lol-,

ika (Again)

Most likely town.

By voting History

Most suspect to least suspect

Panther (Never voted Scum)
Diego/TTH (Voted 1 scum)
Sparrowbird/Mario (Voted both scum)

VCA coming shortly.

[Luna Fox]

Disclaimer:

I just found this VCA strategy the other day, the algorithm is very known, im not entirely sure im doing this right however, specially because the results are the entirely opposite of my previous post

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Base Chance of Scum 3/13 > 23%

Bellaphant

- 5 -

Shiro

,

ika

,

Alchemist21

,

Luna Fox

, MarioManiac4

Luna Fox

- 2 -

Performer

,

Bellaphant

Silverjaws

- 1 -

Firebringer

Diego1487 - 1 - PantherPunt

Shiro

- 1 -

MaxwellPuckett

Vedith

- 1 -

Silverjaws

Not Voting:

Vedith

, Diego1487

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Silverjaws

- 5 -

Firebringer

,

Shiro

,

ika

,

Vedith

, Diego1487

Bellaphant

- 2 -

Alchemist21

, MarioManiac4
Diego1487 - 2 - PantherPunt,

Silverjaws

Luna Fox

- 1 -

Performer

MarioManiac4 - 1 -

MaxwellPuckett

Not Voting:

Bellaphant

,

Luna Fox

Possible Scum: Diego1487

Silverjaws

- 6 -

Firebringer

,

Shiro

,

ika

,

Vedith

, MarioManiac4,

Alchemist21

MarioManiac4 - 3 -

Bellaphant

,

Performer

,

MaxwellPuckett

Diego1487 - 1 -

Silverjaws

Alchemist21 - 1 -

PantherPunt

Firebringer - 1 -

Luna Fox

Not Voting:

Diego1487

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Silverjaws

- 7 -

Shiro

,

Alchemist21

,

Vedith

, MarioManiac4,

Firebringer

, Diego1487,

Luna Fox

MarioManiac4 - 3 -

Bellaphant

,

Performer

,

MaxwellPuckett

Diego1487 - 1 -

Silverjaws

Alchemist21

- 1 - PantherPunt

Not Voting:

ika

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4, Dieg1487

Base Chance of Scum: 2/10 > 20%

Alchemist21

- 3 - PantherPunt,

Vedith

,

Shiro

Performer

- 3 - MarioManiac4,

Alchemist21

,

Luna Fox

MarioManiac4

- 1 -

Performer

Not Voting:

ika

,

MaxwellPuckett

, Diego1487

Possible Scum: PantherPunt, MarioManiac4

Performer

- 5 - MarioManiac4,

Alchemist21

,

Luna Fox

,

Shiro

,

Vedith

Alchemist21

- 2 - PantherPunt, Diego1487

Vedith

- 1 -

Performer

Not Voting:

ika

,

MaxwellPuckett

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Performer

- 6 -

Alchemist21

,

Luna Fox

,

Shiro

, MarioManiac4,

Vedith

,

ika

Diego1487 - 1 -

Performer

Not Voting:

MaxwellPuckett

, Diego1487, PantherPunt

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Base Chance of Scum: 2/7 > 28.5%

ika

- 4 - MarioManiac4,

Vedith

,

Luna Fox

,

Alchemist21

MarioManiac4 - 1 - Diego1487

Not Voting:

ika

, PantherPunt

Possible Scum: MarioManiac4

Most likely scum to least likely:

4.25

MarioManiac4

0.96

Diego1487

0.6

PantherPunt

Conclusion after both:

Scum is 1 of Panther/Mario.

[Luna Fox]

So basically after all that work i only figured that Diego's town orz

[Luna Fox]

Fuck VCA.

Why?

If you're going to mislynch me because of that you're the one who needs to apologise aftergame, not Vedith.

Have i mentioned i want to lynch you today? No, im just said you're 1 of 2 possible suspects, im narrowing down the suspect pool to find the last remaining scum.

Unless you're scum and Panther's town in which case ugh

No, although i didn't know you were townreading me, guess you're good at faking it.

[Luna Fox]

Ok apparently both extremes are suspect, i need to research more onto this, but that'd make Panther guilty by VCA and never voting scum, and you'd only be guilty by VCA, which is a point in your favor, will probably do a reads check on Panther, but im pretty sure last time i did that his reads were consistently wrong (which is usually a sign of scum).

[Luna Fox]

VOTE: Panther
I've made my decission.

[Luna Fox]

Congrats Panther

[Luna Fox]

Why even post your algorithm results that say I'm least likely scum then vote for me? Like you can't be that upside down of a wolf can you? If that's a ploy, congrats you're better than I perceived you.

I already said why i was voting you tho, and it's not related to the algorithm, also it's not mine, it's something i found i wanted to try out, im not sure how accurate the results are atm, if mario flips scum then i guess i can trust it from now on in future games.

Out of curiosity, what wolf value does your algorithm give your votes, Luna?

The algorithm treats myself as conf town since that's my role PM, i could try and check by adding me as unflipped, tho that would also lower everyone else's chances of being scum.

[Luna Fox]

Eh actually i just did that and it gave me a 2.09

[Luna Fox]

Actually I have fucked up VCA in every single day!
So yeah!

This VCA doesn't care about your position on the wagon however.

[Luna Fox]

Also i really don't like how Mario has been trying to discredit my VCA every single opportunity, when my VCA hasn't taken into account any of his shenanigans.
VOTE: Mario

[Luna Fox]

Also i really don't like how Mario has been trying to discredit my VCA every single opportunity, when my VCA hasn't taken into account any of his shenanigans.
VOTE: Mario

It's because VCA is shit. Scum have the ability to not do EXACTLY WHAT VCA WOULD EXPECT OF THEM.
Goddamnit Luna

And what is the scum expecting the VCA to do?

[Luna Fox]

The expectations of this VCA is scum sheeping and mislynching, am i wrong to expect scum would do this?

[Luna Fox]

Please don't use this game as a guinea pig to test out the Scumputer.

Oh you figured out what i was using?
If you had, then you'd know that none of the things you pointed out make sense with it's algorithm as they dont disprove it.

[Luna Fox]

Considering you've been trying to defend yourself with "I've been skewing VCA" while none of your supposed things you've done skews it at all, is kinda meh.
1) Why would you try to skew VCA as TOWN, because it'll make the Vote Count Analyser's job harder to find scum via their best scumhunting method if they exist.
2) Now that i've brought VCA and have pointed towards you being the most likely scum, you're using this as a defense, if you are TOWN, then you can only blame your own skewing of the VCA (if it actually affected it) for you being suspected right now.

[Luna Fox]

Eh im already scumhunting, i already showed you the results of the VCA, but since you seem interested in the process im gonna ask the mod if i can link it since it's on a google spreadsheet.

[Luna Fox]

Oh also here's my reply towards your "VCA is shit" statement:

Votecount Analysis is one of the most effective scum-hunting tools out there. I’ve caught a good 50-75% of the scum I have from VCA, and when I’ve been scum, realized how if the town was analyzing the VCA the way *I* was, that I’d be outed as scum.

[Luna Fox]

Eh im already scumhunting, i already showed you the results of the VCA, but since you seem interested in the process im gonna ask the mod if i can link it since it's on a google spreadsheet.

if you're already scumhunting, talk about that.
not vca.

1345 Which shows you discrediting the VCA is one of the reasons i think you're scum, this is on top of the VCA, and added onto your play D1 as Sparrowbird.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah everyone seems to have dissapeared, panther said he'd be busy until today tho, the others where the heck are they...

[Luna Fox]

1) Today's not LyLo, i dont need to hear "im leaning on voting X" go ahead and vote me, that wont lose the game if you're wrong.
2) Another comment is that if me flipping town will make you trust my VCA and lynch mario tomorrow then im more than happy to die for it.

[Luna Fox]

If I don't go through Panther/Luna tonight it will probably be Monday before I do them.

This was the last post alch made site wide.
Maybe he went V/LA and forgot to mention it, hence why he got prodded.

Well anyway, hopefully we get to hear from him tomorrow (or i guess it's already monday here)

[Luna Fox]

I have weird vibes about that vote (in a good way)

[Luna Fox]

...@ *thumbleweed*

[Luna Fox]

Why did you vote Panther and said Diego's the closest 2nd option to scum instead of me?

[Luna Fox]

Trust me, I don't put you in the not-lynch slot because of any obvtown play.

Well gee thanks.

[Luna Fox]

UNVOTE:

[Luna Fox]

I'm really fighting hard the urge to lynch you because your previous comment seemed like it wanted to stir me up, but then that'd be a lynch based on emotion and not your alignment, I unvoted you because i find zero reason why scum you wouldn't be going after my throat seeing im the easiest mislynch and instead you're leaving me off the lynch pool.

[Luna Fox]

And alchemist was my last hope here...
I'm now leaning on Panther tbqh, Mario had a chance to jump at me since im easy to mislynch today, he didn't took that chance, he's actually trying to read me, so he's probably town.

[Luna Fox]

@Alch: where did your conclusion on 1313 go?

[Luna Fox]

Eh im going to sleep, i'm losing motivation again to try and find the last scum =/
And my reads are entirely opposite of alch's right now.

[Luna Fox]

I'm still not sure why people are scumreading me, I feel i've been genuine and open with my thoughts, and i've done my best o try to find scum, yet somehow here i am, being voted by confirmed town, just after yesterday another confirmed town said i should die, I don't understand, what have i done wrong enough to let scum manage to make me a mislynch option, I would like to know.

[Luna Fox]

So basically i'm scum because alchemist is still alive...
10/10 Reason.

VOTE: Panther

[Luna Fox]

I don't really see myself changing my vote after that godawful reasoning for vote me, with such a build up and only voting after the IC voted me.

[Luna Fox]

Well i was planning on saying this only after i was hammered, but since im going to be away for 4 hours and im not sure how long i'll have in twilight to say it nor if im going to be hammered while im away, im just gonna say it now

Spoiler: Open only if im dead

This is why i didn't want to put in effort finding the last scum, i spent loads of time checking people's voting patterns and in the end the only conclusion i came to was probably wrong, as im not even voting the person my VCA found guilty, what makes me more mad is that I first tried to use the Scumputer's algorithm manually, spending hours to try to find scum via calculating all variables, then i didn't realize there was a spreadsheet at the bottom which i used afterwards.

In the end, It seems i died without knowing why i was scumread but, oh well, i had fun playing with all, and i wont hate anyone for this decission, and we'll see in the postgame

Now i am really in a hurry to leave.

[Luna Fox]

Huh, i expected to have died by now, ignore my last post then, what's with all the votes mario?

[Luna Fox]

It contains the truth of the last scum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

So you are an option?

[Luna Fox]

So you think that only one of us 2 is scum?

[Luna Fox]

Because im at the point that i'll even self-hammer if you guys promise me you'll lynch panther tomorrow.

[Luna Fox]

Well i was pretty sure Panther was the last scum until his vote switch...
Now im confused.

[Luna Fox]

Also the fact that conf town Alchemist still doesn't tell me why im scum nor is trying to sort me out to fix this wrong read makes me sad.

[Luna Fox]

So basically I'm scum because of something a flipped scum player did?
How is that supposed to be fair for me when i know i'm town?

And i remember you had suspicions early game of me, i still don't know why...

[Luna Fox]

You know what, don't even bother answering, im done reasoning with you.
You will probably die tonight anyway so you can tell me all about your "scumread" on me on the Dead QT when we're both dead.
I'm tired of defending myself of stuff that isn't even my fault.
If you want to lynch town that way then go ahead.
VOTE: Luna Fox

[Luna Fox]

Onto other things that don't make sense:
Why wouldn't Scum!Diego agree to the proposal and instead continue to say Mario is scum when i offered him an easy way to victory.
Why would Panther get worried after i said that and start pushing Diego who still doesn't want to lynch either of us and keeps thinking Mario's scum.
Some food for thought.

[Luna Fox]

Why wouldn't Scum!Diego agree to the proposal and instead continue to say Mario is scum when i offered him an easy way to victory.

I don't know what scum!Diego would do here, but I do know that town!Diego made the choice to not rush through a lynch he wasn't sure about.

That statement was more directed at saying you were town for not accepting the offer i made before.

[Luna Fox]

If i was scum giving up i would have PM'd the mod about it, btw.
And I doubt the mod will give you an answer that would help you confirm me as town.

[Luna Fox]

VOTE: PP
Ok

[Luna Fox]

Sorry i just had an annoyed momment due to Alch's posting...

[Luna Fox]

Also im fairly certain PP is scum, but if im wrong my next bet is Mario, because Diego has as much as confirmed himself as town for me.

[Luna Fox]

If he's scum he could've gone with lynching me > lynching PP for a win after i said what i said, he didn't, he also didn't hammer and also keeps thinking you're scum despite there being more easier lynches elsewhere.

[Luna Fox]

He didn't say that, he said we were forcing him to choose between us 2 while he prefers to lynch you.
This is true because we're voting panther, while panther and Alch are voting me, at that point it's literally impossible for him to lynch you.

[Luna Fox]

So you think that only one of us 2 is scum?

No, I still

want

to lynch Mario. But I've been put in the middle of you and Panther so I'm telling everyone my feelings on you two if I'm forced to lynch one of you.

^
See this right here.

[Luna Fox]

He literally can't lynch you without at least 2 of Me, Alch, Panther agreeing, but Alch is stuck on me apparently so without both me and Panther agreeing.
He's the only one (or was rather) not voting either of us 2, he would've hammered either in a heartbeat if he was scum.

[Luna Fox]

tl;dr:
He literally thinks you're scum and is not happy with having to choose between me and panther, hence, why he went and checked the cases on both of us, he's still on the fence and wants to continue discussing, this isn't something scum does, he could've hammered either by saying "i think this case is more likely to be right", he didn't, he's had a lot of oportunities with safe outs for him to hammer town, he hasn't taken any.

[Luna Fox]

no, alchemist is fixated on you and me- he thinks one is mafia.

I'm pretty sure he said he's townreading "the other 3"

[Luna Fox]

In my opinion, Silver's interactions

point to all the other three being Town.

Also, I had early suspicions of you then I backed off and started Townreading you. Usually that happens when the player is scum.

This right here.

[Luna Fox]

The whole "sheeping the IC" argument against Panther doesn't really mean much since he switched to Diego shortly after.

After i said that i would self-hammer if ppl promised to lynch him tomorrow yes.
I will admit that if im wrong about PP tho it's probably Mario, i just don't see scum Diego doing anything he's done this DP.

[Luna Fox]

So we currently have
PP thinks it's Luna(Me) / Diego
Alchemist thinks it's Luna(Me) / Mario
Mario thinks it's Diego / PP
I think it's PP / Mario
Diego thinks it's Mario

As you can see the only one that isnt keeping lynch options open is Diego, if that isn't a town point in his favor idk what is.
Also notice how the ONLY thing we could reach a consensus with our current stances is... Mario.

[Luna Fox]

Unless i self-vote again that is, which im still perfectly fine doing so for the purpose of clearing this question mark everyone has.

[Luna Fox]

very briefly

You mean for almost 24 hours?

[Luna Fox]

Oh wait, i thought i self-voted before i went to class.
I misremembered that.

[Luna Fox]

Anyway Alch, in case either I or you die tonight (most likely you) it was nice playing with you again ^_^

[Luna Fox]

Same. I'd play with this entire playerlist again. Lol

I meant i've played with you before haha, you just dont know. But I liked most of you as well

[Luna Fox]

Oh. Who are you?

Unfortunately i can't tell you at this time, i can tell you by PM after the game's over however.

[Luna Fox]

Hello Diego, if there is "no way im scum after the self-vote" why did you need to state an intent to vote, from your PoV i wouldn't hammer right?

[Luna Fox]

This is me not hammering

[Luna Fox]

But yeah i still would like to know why if he thinks im clear, he didn't vote.
It doesn't make any sense from either alignment.

[Luna Fox]

It doesn't make any sense from either alignment.

Although i'll wait for his reply before i go into this further anyway.

[Luna Fox]

Well yes, if you thought i could be scum, since voting town > town means game loss on LyLo since scum can QH, anyway i don't have time to check throughout the game right now, but i would like to know each of your argument's on each other and i'll read them when i'm back, i know you'll be seeing each other through scum painted glasses now, but only one of those will be correct and it will show.

[Luna Fox]

So here are a couple questions
@Mario: Why did you vote Bella to L-1 with little to no reason back in Day 1.
@Both: If you were scum, now knowing that im conf town, why kill Alchemist when he was sure to vote me today?

[Luna Fox]

"Obvious I'm scum."
ROFL.
Let's start with the case on you then!
1)- In 831, he says

Silverjaws

appears to be caught scum, and is sure of this. In 959, he's suddenly interested in both my wagon and

Alchemist

's, because "the

Silver

wagon feels scum-led." Quite a sudden change of opinion!
2)- In 960, he whiteknights

Performer

. Then, when

Performer

votes NL, he stops his "bad play" opinion. That isn't bad play, but a scumslip? After everything

Performer

did?
3)- In 1062, he seems incredibly afraid of hammering... I wonder why?
4)- In 1223, he says "There is no scum on a 3-player wagon OMG MARIO BE CONFIRMED SCUM" and then accuses

Vedith

for being... ignored? Like, what the fuck?
5)- He accuses

Luna

in 1292. I don't see his suspicion flowing anywhere?
6)- In 1309, his townread is suddenly possible. He's keeping his options open.
7)- He apparently has a "gutread" on me and considers this stronger than cases? Like surely there's a case on me if you want to vote me, but I'm the only one without a case?
8)- He illogically clears

Luna

in 1445 so he can mislynch me in LYLO.
9)- That fucking hammer. That actual. Fucking. Hammer.
10)- The case on me. He says I'm mafia because I discredit a voting tool I always dislike and say I'm scum for it? I have scumhunted, and he's saying I'm trying not to keep my hands dirty when I practically led the

Performer

lynch?
11)- 1476 is not from a hypothetical perspective. At all.
12)- I'm a Vanilla Townie.

@Luna; I put Bella at L-1 because I couldn't handle the pace at which the game was going.
Diego killed

Alchemist

because of the reasons he put in 1476. He should've killed you and passed it off as WIFOM, however.

So if you were scum you wouldn't have killed alchemist? I'll comb through the points soonish, was just formatting them to make them easier to follow.

[Luna Fox]

1) 949 Happened Day 2 after the silver lynch, it's not possible for Diego to be talking about the silver wagon being scum-led.
2) Mario says Performer scumslipped for mentioning the existance of a cop, we now know cop doesn't exist, so technically it wasn't a scumslip.
3) Why is he afraid of hammering and not... simply... telling the truth?
4) The largest part of your wagon was "Sparrowbird - 4 - MaxwellPuckett, Luna Fox, Alchemist21, Sparrowbird +

Firebringer, Shiro

All of which are confirmed town but yourself (the italics were ppl with intent to vote you), your wagon was town driven, yet you tried to argue around it, real talk: If you're scum, your partners are silver and ika, there's no way with ika's scum activity and silver flaking that they would try to fish you out of it, TTH at that point was also flaking so it's not like it says much for Diego either, this is probably a null point.
5) This is actually a good point

@Diego: With that mindset why didn't you hammer me yesterday when me and PP were competing wagons?

6) Strongest gut read (that would be Mario methinks) is trying to discredit PP, is true. Don't see his townread being an option to lynch here?
7) You had gutreads on D1, and there were also cases on D1, you're being a bit hypocritical here.
8) While he's logically thinking, I stood and abode by the fact that getting myself lynched yesterday would have been better for the town, however me being conf town in LyLo changes things around because i consider myself pretty good at finding out whose accusations are being done with the intent of scum painting and whose with the intent of scum hunting, scum will HAVE to paint someone's actions scummy on LyLo to win.
9) He hammered his townread yes, but there was no way he was getting traction towards you yesterday.
10) I think VCA is a valid scumhunting tool, do you disagree? was DGB's scumputer on the supposed game wrong?
11) Why not? Alchemist seemed willing to lynch me today, leaving him alive could've caused a town loss and scum win.
12) And scum wouldn't say this because ... (Fill the blank)

Currently leaning to vote Mario.

[Luna Fox]

Eh i screwed the first post tag, it's supposed to be 959 not 949

[Luna Fox]

So I linked the wrong post? Just ISO Diego for his Alchemist vote.

Not seeing it, his alchemist vote was D2, after Silver had flipped.

[Luna Fox]

Currently leaning to vote Diego.

[Luna Fox]

I really want some compelling reasons by Diego to not be hammered, this thread has been dead silent for hours.

[Luna Fox]

If you're sick, then i'll give you time.

I don't want to make the wrong decission just because real life prevented you from defending yourself.

[Luna Fox]

...

[Luna Fox]

I do wonder when will Diego be able to post :<
I know im the conf town, but one of you 2 is another town who is supposed to be trying to show that to me, im starting to think he's scum and gave up. Or does he expect me to magically infer which of you 2 is scum from where i couldn't throughout the game?

[Luna Fox]

Btw Mario remember when i was doing my first VCA that i said someone had to have bus'd silverjaws?

Silverjaws

- 7 -

Shiro

,

Alchemist21

,

Vedith

, MarioManiac4,

Firebringer

, Diego1487,

Luna Fox

Welp, it's confirmed now that someone did.

[Luna Fox]

On one hand my gut's screaming hard that it's Mario, what will all his VCA discredit... tho he also discredited kthx VCA in greater ida, but kthx was scum there and mario town.
On the other hand i feel like if i hammer mario and im wrong Panther's gonna be yelling at me forever "I TOLD YOU SO"

[Luna Fox]

No rather i don't think Silverjaw's case on him is Scum on Scum.

[Luna Fox]

Problem is, i read your case on Diego and some of your supposed points for him scum, make more sense for him being town and im worried you're just trying to paint him as scummy to convince me. Which is why initially i had a lean on voting you.

[Luna Fox]

So you don't think scum going down would distance?

I think scum going down would try to save himself, Lizard didn't have much of anything to form a read.

[Luna Fox]

I'm trusting my gut, and my VCA, I dont really see many of Diego's actions as coming from scum yesterday specially when he had a chance to hammer me, he decided to keep going after his scumread.

Sorry if this is wrong orz
VOTE: Mario

[Luna Fox]

Sorry, but this game wasn't letting me sleep, and i don't want to have that... sorry if it was a rash decission orz

[Luna Fox]

But wow if you're really town you really managed to get a full town on town wagon on yourself D1.

[Luna Fox]

Yeah, no you're not town.

[Luna Fox]

Wagons mean fuck all.
After this game, discard them.

The fact that you say this about a valid scumhunting tool, is what's making me think that you're just faking this twilight shenanigans after losing.

[Luna Fox]

Luna Fox: Losing 3p Lylos since 2013
orz

[Luna Fox]

Phone posting to say that my reasons for hammering mario werent only based off vca its insulting that you think that

[Luna Fox]

At a point in the game, Luna said she didn't feel like going on with the rest of the game. I feel like some motivational speaker but as town - no matter what - you CAN NOT give up.

Part of my play this game was kind of intended at being obvtown to soak up a NK since i was VT, the fact i got suspected so much on D4 forced me to play defensively and instead of following up on my plan on lynching Diego > Mario (or Mario > Diego), i ended up reversing my read on PP due to how bad his 180 on me was (from my point of view). Sorry orz