Open 647: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[karnos]

VOTE: ranger

It's just my thing I do.

[karnos]

Here is the original DoP game:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=66642

[karnos]

On the one hand, this game is off to a very slow start.

On the other hand, I'm curious to see how ranger's read lists look with such a small sample of posts to read from.

[karnos]

Thank you sir, I have an excellent view of all the scum from up on this wagon.

[karnos]

blah blah blah

Really good argument, I might steal and use this myself.

Sorry about your loss

[karnos]

Agree with the above, and...

SirCakez was scum in the original roll open 640. The *only* scum from 640 who made it into the re-roll. What are the chances that he pulled scum again?

VOTE: SirCakez

[karnos]

Mind explaining the Karnos read a bit more if you are sticking to it?

Out of the more than 20 games I've played with him previously, he is only ever this quiet when he is scum. I'd like to hear from in before changing my vote.

Only because it's you asking, I'll give a detailed response.

Spoiler: for Penguins

- The game started slow. It's hard to post a lot of responses when there isn't anything serious to respond to, even the mod commented on how the game had a very slow start.

- I'm playing in 3 other games at the same time. When we played previously, it was only ever one game at a time, so it had my full time devoted to a single game.

- I was specifically delaying my next entry to the thread because I wanted to see what came of my last post, if anything. The reaction from voting SirCakez can give some useful information. Unfortunately there was no reaction at all from him regarding my post, so that doesn't really indicate much of anything to me.

- Tuesdays include my weekly IT meeting, so today was particularly busy at where, where I would typically have the most time to post.

- Compared to our prior games, I know the pace is a bit slower here, so I don't feel compelled to post as often every single day.

That said, the thread did pick up some today, while I was busy at work, and I have reason to change my vote.

Penguin: Welcome to the forums!

podoboq: 101 does sounds scummy to me. Potentially voting this in the near future if his next few posts don't convince me otherwise.

Maruchan: I want to vote you just because your posts are hard to read. Can you try to be a little more concise? And weirdly, reading podobog defend you while analyzing your last posts makes me like your posts even less. I really don't like your point 3 in 98: votes are free, and a vote or even a couple votes at this point isn't going to kill anyone. If nothing else, they provide useful pressure and can drive discussion.

Aneninen: MIA. Post more.

Okay, it's the near future. Nothing else jumps out at me, so...

VOTE: podoboq

That is 5, folks.

[karnos]

Yeah, that wagon was pretty damn fast, there is probably scum pushing it.

All the same , I want to see podoboq's response before I consider change my vote.

[karnos]

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

Come on shotty. You could have kept him at L-1 for a nice valuable reaction, instead you immediately let off the pressure.

Why? Did you really think someone would hammer without intent? Or were you busing, and you didn't want to actually see the lynch carried through?

I don't like this attitude that L-1 is a death sentence. Nobody is going to hammer, except maybe scum or someone totally clueless. If scum, we lynch them tomorrow. If clueless, that is just bad luck, town can't succeed with players who aren't even trying. A great opportunity for valuable information compromised because of a quick unvote.

[karnos]

It's not bad luck if someone had the opportunity to unvote karnos. You seem really eager right now.

And you seem really paranoid. Are you afraid podo will flip scum, or are you afraid he will flip town?

[karnos]

It's not bad luck if someone had the opportunity to unvote karnos. You seem really eager right now.

And you seem really paranoid. Are you afraid podo will flip scum, or are you afraid he will flip town?

It is scum who tells a cautious townie he is paranoid scum
VOTE: karnos

Nice. I can tell your vote is totally strategic and well thought out, it's not like you are just voting me because I am voting you.

BTW, you were misrepresenting my point.

"If clueless, that is just bad luck, town can't succeed with players who aren't even trying."

As in, if we have clueless town who hammer without intent, we are going to lose. Unvoting doesn't remove the clueless town from our player pool, it only stops them from hammering in this specific case. There will still be plenty of other cases where they can ruin things, unless you think town can win without ever going to L-1.

[karnos]

You are pushing for a lynch and saying well if someone cluelessly hammers oh well we were doomed anyway. That is a scum mindset.

I thought that was your mindset?

It's like you are trying to argue both sides. If you think someone can quick-hammer and miss-lynch and we won't be doomed, then why are you so paranoid about letting someone sit at L-1 for a few hours?

The only difference is you seem to think a QHML is just going to happen spontaneously. That isn't how it works. It happens when someone clueless hammers without showing intent. Now, by cutting back to L-2 you protect against the hammer in this specific case, but you also prevent anyone from giving a real intent to hammer, you prevent podo from feeling a serious risk of being lynched, and ultimately the player who would have quick-hammered is still in the game, ready to make an error at some other point.

If you really have a player who is going to make a horrible mistake like that, you can't cripple your play options and play around it. you just have to play normally and deal with the missplay if it actually happens.

[karnos]

I think it's TvT also, less sure though. I want to see where it goes though.

No, I don't think it's going anywhere, you are probably correct.

I still want some attention from podoboq, there was a reason for his wagon and it doesn't need to be dismantled yet.

VOTE: podoboq

[karnos]

Karnos what are you hoping to get from podo?

If I told him what I wanted, it would be really easy for him to give me just that.

I just didn't like his interactions with maruchan. It seemed like he unvoted first, and then only later after being prompted did he manufacture the reasons for his unvote. That isn't how it's supposed to work.

[karnos]

Dividing your post into 4 points I want to address.
1. This is a shitty reason to give any less than your all to any game. If you can't play to your normal standards in any game because of the number of other games, you need to get the fuck out of some of those games. A SELF-INDUCED workload of games is NOT a valid excuse to not play your best game possible in any given game at any given time. Fix yourself.
2. Voting for someone based on a playstyle, and because you don't like their posts is fucking stupid. Deal with it, or ignore me and live with the fact you can't read my playerslot due to your ignoring of me. I can't be any more concise and get the points i want to make across. I can only make 1 sometimes 2 posts a day, and you guys are averaging 100 posts a day for me to react to. I will react to everything that happens in the game. I will not skim, I will not hold back, I will not provide any less content due to my limited posting schedule. I will provide the same content I would provide if I could post every 30 minutes. It just happens to all be in one post. I can't help that, I'm sorry it bugs you. Deal with it, or don't. It's not a good reason for lynching someone. Unless you're scum, then any reason to lynch not scum is a good reason.
3. I apologize that someone else's personal reactions to my post, makes you dislike my post? Thats really weird, and nothing I can do to change other people's personal reactions, so I don't know why you made this point.
4. Votes are free. They are also the most powerful weapon any town player has in any given game. When I can only apply one vote in a 24 hour period, why do you want me to waste it on anything less than someone I am 100% willing to be rid of, before I get a chance to check back in 24 hours later? You saw how fast the wagon on pod built. he went from no votes to L-1 in the span of my Sleep Time/Work Day. If I had voted him, that could easily have been a quicklynch while I was without internet access. Why would I want that? I will be sparing with my votes, and only place it where I WANT to lynch someone, and that is my personal choice, and it is not a bad choice.

1- You are jumping to conclusions. I am still giving my all here. Sometimes you say more with less. On the other forum (w/ DixC & Penguin), I posted all the time, sometimes not out of need, but out of boredom. With multiple games running here, I find that posting out of boredom is something I do far more rarely, but I still post as much as I need to post.

2- You are being overly defensive. I want to vote you doesn't mean I think you are scum, and doesn't mean I will vote you. i'm just warning you that I, and possibly others, perceive your posting style as a style that can be used to mask emotion, and therefore avoid giving scum tells.

3- Again, i'm not actually voting you, I'm just telling you it looks bad to me.

4- I think you will find that voting isn't so linear. While podo was 1 vote away from being lynched today, briefly, it's not exactly correct to assume he would have really been lynched if you had voted for him 20 hours prior. Likely, the person putting him at L-1 today wouldn't have voted at all. One, two, even three votes on someone and most people don't think twice about voting. But one you get to L-2 or closer to lynch, the votes from that point on take a much stronger meaning. I like looking at vote records, so when a player refuses to vote someone he considers scummy, it rubs me as somewhat odd.

[karnos]

Here's a readslist.

Quality stuff. I might not share the exact same reads, but I see town motivation here, no reason for me to be voting you anymore.

UNVOTE: podoboq

VOTE: Smithereens

138 , as others have pointed out, is sketchy as all-hell. And I don't think he has even acknowledged why he wrote it.

[karnos]

Big FOS towards ranger as well, but I don't think she needs to be voted yet.

[karnos]

FYI for anyone who didn't know, this is PenguinPower's first game here. When you look at his iso, make sure you don't mix up newbie awkwardness with actual legitimate scum tells.

That said, who knows, maybe he did draw scum in his first game. I'd vote him, but I think smithereens is a step worse.

[karnos]

I don't. I am voting smithereens.

[karnos]

Worse as in more scummy.

[karnos]

I think I see what ranger is trying to do, and because of that I am leaving my vote right where it is.

[karnos]

So. Ranger is talking like Yoda. I mostly bought the idea that podoboq is town from his posting pattern, while smithereens is... a little bit off.

I feel better about podoboq because both podoboq and smith are scummy to me, but podoboq is on smith.

You don't think this might be because podo also reads smithereen to be scum? Remember, we already tried the podoboq wagon. It hit L-1 really fast and IMO the reactions from him seemed to point more towards town than scum. So the only reason to push a wagon now is to actually lynch him, and I'm not on board for that.

[karnos]

I want to see who jumps on again and who doesn't and why. And yeah of course podo could be town thinking smith is scum, I still don't love voting with scum reads though.

I don't like this.

312 I didn't like that either.

Not going to link the whole iso, but a lot murdercat's other stuff just looks like busy posts or fake read lists.

My vote on smithereens is feeling stale, time for a change.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[karnos]

My vote on smithereens is feeling stale, time for a change.

WTH is this?

I finally unvote him, and then everyone else decides to hop on the wagon?

Need to re-read and review.

[karnos]

VOTE: Smithereens

L-1 someone quick hammer.

Yeah, I picked the worst time to come back and then get distracted by my son, wish I could have put in my vote before this.

In my experience, self voting like this is popular among scum, your claim not withstanding.

Intent to hammer.

To be fair, I'll wait until morning, approx 8 hours from this post. If anyone doesn't want to see smithereens lynched, now is your chance to unvote.

[karnos]

Out of my 3 completed games, I've seen serious self voting 3 times. Twice it was scum, and the third time it was town doing it to prevent a lynch on scum, exactly as bad as it sounds. I have no patience for self voting, and I still think smithereens should be lynched. Yes, I'm saying this even after the response maru got for posting something somewhat similar, because I feel strongly about this and I'm not just going to cower to make myself look more towny.

VOTE: Smithereens

Back to L-1. Someone just hammer please, we don't want this alive in lylo even if it is town.

[karnos]

I will not unvote before he does.

[karnos]

I fully agree with Anenenenenen's logic, I just don't come to the same conclusion. If town can self vote and gets a free stay of execution, then scum will do the same.

[karnos]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=66170 RC and tojam both self-voted as scum.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=66642 sickofit self voted as town, which was particularly frustrating because it was down to a lynch between him and someone else who was eventually revealed to be scum.

[karnos]

Smithereens, how long are you going to keep this up? You seem to think you know who the scum are, but instead of voting them you are voting yourself.

[karnos]

Even if you are town, and your flip verifies this, you are not infallible.

[karnos]

It's basically the same as voting self, as far as being town and going against win condition.

[karnos]

While that was going on, the scum team conveniently fails to notice that I haven't been CC'd, and continues their smithers wagon with all the intelligence of a mushroom.

Lets clear something up:"It's possible for there to be multiple players with the same power and night."

Everyone is a cop or a doctor. The night you have is just random, and may match another player. Claiming your night doesn't prove anything.

[karnos]

UNVOTE:
I don't see podo scum claiming n5 cop

Why is the claim of all things what convinced you?

I don't think podo is scum for other reasons, but you should know everyone is going to claim either doc or cop, and claiming a late night is the perfect scum cover because they won't have to share results until the game is likely over.

[karnos]

This really has been an annoying end to the game day.

I suspect podo is town, but I won't risk a no lynch.

Consider this

intent to hammer

, I'll wait until tomorrow morning.

[karnos]

This really has been an annoying end to the game day.

I suspect podo is town, but I won't risk a no lynch.

Consider this

intent to hammer

, I'll wait until tomorrow morning.

Don't do it Karnos

I was pretty busy this morning, and we got an extension anyway so no worries.

Need to catch up and see where we are with this new penguin wagon.

[karnos]

My take: penguin might or might not be scum, but I think there is a good chance he is just being read as he is because he is new. I won't hammer him, but I can understand why someone else might, given that we are nearly out of time.

I invited him to these forums, this is his very first game, I just don't have the heart to pull the trigger myself. It might be a poor play, but iId rather see the day end in no lynch.

[karnos]

Probably won't be able to post today at all, family stuff for the 4th, though I might get some time late in the evening.

I

will

be able to catch-up and post tomorrow morning before day deadline.

[karnos]

Busy weekend here.

I'm N1 cop, podo = confirmed town.

VOTE: Dunnstral

That post hammer pre-flip posting was just really scummy.

[karnos]

That was a good catch-up read. Nice to see MC has solved the game. Why haven't we won yet?

On a more serious note:

On the one hand:

Nah man, I got it.

Anyway, I'll reevaluate after a Dunn flip of course, but the fact that Dunn went from DixC as top tier town to must wagon basically proves to me his reads are fake.

Just check his ISO.
No real arguments.

He's a loud mouth who's trying to push/beg/plead his way into a kill. He's acting like the thug is he is.

What set him off? I asked for an explanation for why he was buddying podo just like Maru was. My guess: scum pre-formed a plan and stuck to it. He's acting like the thug he is.

VOTE: Dunnstral

You can forget about the scum pre-plan scum theory- podo is confirmed town. As town, I would never fake an innocent result, so if you think podo is scum you think I am scum by inference, and dunnstral would of course be scum... you really think you solved the game already?

OTOH:

I read every post, I consider every argument, and I try to say something when I can, but I'm not nearly as capable of investing as much time as Dunn has in this game.

Given that he's been able to invest 3x more than I have and I found it very likely he would get it done the same way my kids try to get things done: thoughtless nagging.

I can't post that much right now either...but I wouldn't have any fear of going from L-2 to lynched without a chance to claim this early in phase.

IOW your unprompted claim comes across as scummy.

This is DixC's second game on the site, and I am pretty sure his first game is still ongoing. So I don't see this as a scum indicator, I think it's just his playstyle from the previous forum he played on, where town players were a bit more rash with hammering and waiting for a claim almost never happened.

[karnos]

OK. Concentrate on DixC today, and cop check Aneninen.

Does "concentrate" mean lynch?

Isn't DixC a claimed n2 cop? If we are going to give anyone a stay, it would make sense to give a claimed cop an extra night to work before lynching them, rather than an equally likely scum without the claim.

Based on my recent read-through, I really don't see where the case is on aneninen. Is there anything particularly scummy he did that I should be looking at?

[karnos]

That would have been a reasonable response - coming from him. Coming from someone else, not so much.

I played with him on the previous forum, so I wanted to share my perspective. And frankly I disagree, if it was just his word, he could be lying or at the very least biased.

I have no stake in DixC, and he is even on my radar as a likely scum, but NOT because of his early claim.

[karnos]

Aneninen

I will do some ISOing at some point to justify (and potentially change) these, but I wanted to get something on the page for people to actually look at. Anen obviously needs the most justification, but I'm planting my vote there for now.

VOTE: Aneninen

Please explain the aneninen read.

As far as I see, I just see a lot of him thinking dunnstral is pure scum and dunnstral thinks aneninen is scum, and not a whole lot else. Is it just that you read dunnstral as a solid town, so aneninen must be scum for opposing him?

Right now my thinking is if there a scum between the two of them, dunnstral is it. That post hammer commentary was pretty bad. He has acted more town since then, but could that just an act?

[karnos]

Has he acted more town since then?

Compared to his 1004 era postings, I'd say so.

[karnos]

Is this the V/LA game or what? Where is everyone?

I find cakez insistence that dunn is town to be a bit odd. Scum defending scum, or scum going for known-town cred, could be either/or.

Maybe we should just lynch cakez first, and if he flips scum move on to dunnstral?

OTOH dunnstral did hammer town and seemed to know he was hammering town, which is a step worse. Either way, we have 10 days, I want to see all the V/LA folks to check in.

[karnos]

Karnos, talk to me about DixC's scum game.

He is a good player, but the games were very different on the other forum. Essentially blitz games, each game day was 1-2 RL days usually, and most of the players were not taking the game super seriously, so it's hard to directly compare play over there with here.

Here are a couple games where Dixy rolled scum:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread. ... t=werewolf

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread. ... t=werewolf

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread. ... t=werewolf

[karnos]

BTW, @podo- not ignoring your case on aneminenemin, but I want to see him return from V/LA and respond before commenting on it.

[karnos]

UNVOTE: dunnstral

VOTE: sircakes

1: his weird buddying /w dunn could be scum going for town cred, or it could be scum defending scum, but either way lynching sircakes first makes more sense to me.

2: we have at least another day before seeing some input from ranger, and I don't want to see dunnstral hammered before then.

[karnos]

VOTE: sircakez

fixed spelling.

[karnos]

Anen is like 100% mafia

Can we focus on the scum who aren't V/LA?

What do you think about sircakez? If you are right about the pigeon, who are his scum partners?

[karnos]

penguin, aneninen, and dixc then?

The problem I have with that list is penguin and dixc are both total newbies, so while it's possible they maybe randomly both drew scum I think it's more likely that at least one if not both of them are bieng scum-read because they are playing to the meta on the forum they came from.

Note 1413. Take a brief look at Dixy's play, and penguin if he is in any of those games.

Personally, I read them (dixc&penguin) both as null right now. Not enough alignment indicative stuff to make me feel comfortable lynching them.

anenemen is another story. give him a few days to get back from V/LA and I'd consider moving my vote, depending on what he has to say.

[karnos]

I don't mind lynching dunnstral, self voting is awful. But we do still have 8 days. I could give intent to hammer, and Dunnstral will claim cop or doctor, since the setup doesn't really allow for a hard counterclaim I don't see any good coming from that.

So,

intent to hammer

(after 48 hours~)

Dunnstral, don't worry about claiming. Just do what you think is best for your victory condition.

[karnos]

No lynch till ranger catch-up please.

Also as much I just want to flip Dunn we should still wait for this.

I agree, that is why my intent is with the caveat of a 48 hour waiting period.

[karnos]

She has said strongly and repeatedly that she wants a Transcend or Dunnstral lynch today.

She has, but she also implied that she hasn't read anything from the last few pages. Sometimes people change their mind.

I don't think it will hurt to wait a couple days.

[karnos]

Some people use "retarded" loosely and in their every day speech, but you'll find that one strikes some nerves here as well.

OT:

Spoiler:

my wife HATES that word. One day, I sent her a random email with the subject "tarter sauce" asking if we needed to buy any. She responding asking why I would even ask, and of course her email subject was RE:tarter sauce. I told her I didn't like it when she used that word.

I find it funny, because "retarded" was originally coined because it was considered to be a less offensive term for people who were mentally disabled. It became an offensive word not because it's inherently offensive, but because of what it stood for. Basically, ANY term that is used to describe mentally disabled people, if it comes into common enough usage, will suffer the same problem.

Anyway, you want me to just hammer, is that what you are trying to imply when you say the wagon might fade over a few days? I feel like there are enough people who want to lynch dunnstral that we won't have that problem.

[karnos]

I'm considering it. Doing a re-read of his iso. I generally think all self-voters should be lynched as policy, but I want to take my time here.

[karnos]

Dunnstral has been pretty consistent about calling persivul scum. Persivul is calling for a hammer. Tempted to just go ahead and hammer, because it could be very telling either way. Scum persivul would know dunnstral's flip would implicate him, so I am leaning towards town motivation for pushing me to hammer.

Persivul, being shotty's slot, is not obv town from my PoV yet. A scum flip of Dunnstral would really clear things up.

Current wagon:

Dunnstral (6)

: Aneninen, Chip Butty, DixC, PenguinPower, Persivul, Dunnstral

[karnos]

Why would town dunn self vote?

[karnos]

Do you think it's likely for all 3 scum to push the same wagon, this early in the game?

[karnos]

I'm torn, but I think ultimately the flip will be very useful for sorting.

Consider my intent to wait 48 hours rescinded. Intent to hammer TODAY. If you don't want Dunnstral lynched, unvote immediately.

[karnos]

Thought things over while eating lunch, I'm going to go with my instincts, Dunn is Scum.

VOTE: Dunnstral

[karnos]

VOTE: Aneninen

Murder is solid town. Ranger might have nked. Karnos might have innod partner

I thought you were n2 cop?

Did you get a guilty on anen, or did you waste your investigate just to re-confirm murdercat?

Holding my vote until we get some confirmation.

[karnos]

Inno penguin

How did I miss this post? Disregard my question above.

[karnos]

VOTE: SirCakez

Had a scummy vibe from him yesterday, and today he it looks like he is trying to leverage the town flip of dunnstral into a lynch on
Persivul today. This just seems awful to me.

I don't disagree with Persivul's logic of lynching among the unconfirmed. Ranger also thought SirCakez was the 3rd scum, and I don't have a reason to doubt her doc claim considering we had no other explanation for the lack of a scumkill on n1. SirCakez is clearly the most likely scum among the unconfirmed 4.

[karnos]

Don't act like it's not impossible for ranger to nk. If she did she nked into Mylo with 12 players alive as opposed to nking into a mislynch.

Maybe I'm not reading your abbreviation right, what is "nk"?

[karnos]

So there are two schools of thought here. Persivul suggests that we lynch among the unconfirmed, while ranger, podo, & sircakez are still pushing to lynch "confirmed town" transcend. I think the main argument being that transcend claimed cop for the same day as dixc, who was flipped to confirm as town cop.

The unconfirmed are sircakez, chip butty, persivul, and anemeneni

Confirmed are ranger, murdercat, karnos, podo, transcend, penguin

If we lynch transcend, and he flips scum, awesome.

If we lynch transcend and he flips town cop, that does solidify penguin as town.

OTOH if we lynch among the non-confirmed, we have a pretty good chance to hit scum, if all the "confirmed town" are really town. If we do hit town in that group, it doesn't give us any clear information like how a town transcend would confirm penguin.

Meh, I don't know what my point is. I can see the argument for voting transcend. He is not my first choice, but right now he have some 3-5 potential scum and we are voting all over the place, in the interest of moving the game forward I'm doing this.
VOTE: Transcend

[karnos]

No, that is L-1. I was re-counting just to be sure.

[karnos]

Transcend

(5): SirCakez, Ranger, podoboq, Chip Butty, karnos
L-1

Wanted to look at this. 3 "confirmed town", 2 from unconfirmed pile. I've seen worse wagons. This *could* be all town, if transcend flips scum. If he flips town, we need to take a strong look at sircakez and chip butty.

[karnos]

One thing I have trouble with is your ranger is scum theory.

I don't buy the idea that scum would holster for that, because ranger was already mostly town read, was she not? Now, potentially it could have been scum ranger trying to get a kill, no kill so she claims doctor and gets some free town cred, but in that case the real doc would simply counterclaim. I just don't see a sensible explanation for a scum ranger here.

[karnos]

Alternative theory...Ranger is scum and there was an intentional no-kill on N1. That allowed Ranger to claim Doctor on someone they knew as town and get instant credibility. Even if there was an N1 Doctor, there was only an 8% chance they would choose the same person.

What does picking the same person have anything to do with it?

Look it's N1 you as a doctor save ANYONE.

Day 2, ranger announces she saved person X and that is why there was no kill.

As a town doctor, from your POV, there are two possibilities here: ranger is truthful, but she thinks she saved person X when the scum could have been trying kill person Y. you would claim doc and announce who you saved, and ultimately neither X or Y would be 100% confirmed, because town doesn't know which one was the kill target.

Alternatively, ranger could be scum. In this case, you would still want to counter claim, scum@!ranger could be pulling the gambit because of your save (thus your target is confirmed town) or, extremely unlikely IMO, scum may have holstered to play a gambit.

So it's not 8% chance of a doctor picking the same person, it's whatever chance that ANY night 1 doctor exists at all. I haven't done the math, but I think it's a pretty high chance (but obviously not 100%). Enough that a scum wouldn't count on there not being one, but not so much that lack of multiple N1 doc claims is a red flag.

[karnos]

Yeah please get off transcend for a moment.

Would scum really no kill night one?

Murdercat is confirmed town either way.

We still have time, so I'll

UNVOTE:

If I got some discussion going, thats good enough for me now. My preference is still in a sircakez lynch, it just seemed that nobody else was interested in going there.

[karnos]

i just really want one of chip anen or ranger dead today.

Of the "confirmed townies" I'm most suspicious of you. If we aren't lynching you, I am not going to move to other confirmed town players. Especially not when we have a viable pool of potential scum outside of that.

Chip Butty or Aneneme are possibles for me. Through process of elimination, at least one of them is probably scum.

[karnos]

How has he CC'd flipped town? What am I missing? If he has indeed done so, we'll just lynch him now.

He is talking about dixc. transcend and dixc both claimed n2 cop. dixc flipped as cop.

But in this setup, it's possible to randomly get 2 n2 cops, so this isn't really definitive.

[karnos]

And just why might you be suspicious of me? Do tell.

You actually aren't *that* suspicious, but the issue is that I have to trust you to also trust penguin. Lynching you would kill two birds with one stone, in that either you flip scum, or you flip town and penguin is confirmed.

I don't feel the same about the other confirmed town, because your claim is easier to fake than rangers, for example (which required a no kill & no counterclaim).

[karnos]

I'm not good at statistics, so I'm not going to try an calculate the probability out...don't necessarily agree that it's a pretty high chance. Also, this is the way that YOU would play it. Not everyone would, so don't try and make it seem like an absolute.

In this setup, the power roles only get one shot. Once you use your power, there is no real incentive to hide. If a n1doc is killed on n2, it's actually good for town because it means a power role on a later night might survive to use his power.

So I don't think it's just me, any town n1 doc with incentive to win should have counterclaimed ranger.

I mean, if you think I am wrong, what would the rationalization be for a n1 doc to see ranger's claim and remain silent?

[karnos]

What is wrong with you lot? Yet again, read 1568. That's a claim of N2 Doc saving MC.

There was a kill n2, your claim doesn't really hold much water.

Though, it does make me curious, anyone done the math to see if it might be worth mass-claiming at this point? I know from the previous incarnation of the setup that it's a bad move to make on day 1, but with so many roles already outed maybe it would help us sort the remaining scum.

LIVING PLAYERS

Ranger - doc n1

SirCakez - ?

MURDERCAT (replaces MurderCat) - ?

karnos - cop n1

Aneninen - ?

Transcend - cop n2

Persivul (replaces drmyshottyizsik) - ?
Chip Butty - doc n2

PenguinPower - doc n3
podoboq - cop n5

Dead Players

Smithereens, Town Cop, was lynched Day 1.
Dunnstral, Town Doctor, was lynched Day 2.
DixC, Town Cop, was killed Night 2.

If all claims are true so far, we have 5 cops and 4 docs. That leaves one town cop or doc, and 3 scum. If the un-claiming players all claimed, it seems like it would be a pro-town result to me.

Actually, if we assume ranger's vouch for murdercat is legit, which I think we should, murdercat should be the LAST claim, as we know and trust he is town. This forces any scum in the unconfirmed players to pick roles before they know for sure what is potentially possible in the setup.

Is there ANY way this could hurt town? Don't start claiming unless the majority think it's a good idea, but a this point I think it makes sense.

[karnos]

Also, important point: no need to claim night. That just gives scum information, and doesn't help with sorting. Just claiming cop or doc is useful.

[karnos]

Aneninen seemed scummy the previous day, but I gave him a pass as I think he was V/LA. Upon reading his iso i don't see a mention of it, so he should be back, I think? Maybe due for a prod? I don't know. I know it's not popular to attack absente players, but if he isn't V/LA anymore and he hasn't posted for 5 days, something needs to get him back into the game.

SirCakez rubbed me the wrong way with his "dunnstral is town" certainty. And then this-

We just win if we cop/lynch all of Dix/Penguin/Transcend/Aneninen/Persivul

If we trust transcend's claim, we know for a fact that 3/5 of those are town. They could just all be town, or maybe there is one bused scum in the list, but this just reeks of scum trying to push a list that will win them the game, knowing that town can't handle that many miss-lynches.

I'd love to lynch SirCakez today, I think he has the scummiest iso.

Chip- Being in the unconfirmed pile, I would consider voting Chip, but I just don't see the strong case on him. I don't see any of Chip's posts as particularly scummy, and while "posting less" might be a meta clue about something, I think it's probably NAI. If I had time to kill I'd look through chip's completed games to see if there is a pattern, but can't right now

Persivul big part of my read of Persivul comes from how he put his neck out while pushing to hammer dunnstral, I don't see a scum doing that. PoE might require that I revisit my read here, but I'd rather not lynch persivul today. I did get some scum vibes from shotty's play in the slot, but that has completely evaporated, I think it was shotty's play style.

[karnos]

Well I'm just about ready to self vote and remove myself from the game like the other two lynches did.

Well, if you really want to get lynched, self voting is a good way to convince me to put my vote back on you...

Honestly, if you are town don't do that crap. The game has been slow last few days, make your case and give some time for people to check in and respond. TBH I feel like the game is in a frustrating place right now, we have several good scum candidates but can't seem to make a good consensus on who to lynch first.

Persivul makes a decent point, and I am not convinced by the doctor claim. I'll put a vote on VOTE: Chip Butty if it will break the stagnation of the game.

But I think the mass claim idea has merit too. If everyone claimed, we could at least get a good sense as to whether the scum are hiding under doctor claims or cop claims, which would be nice.

[karnos]

Ugh, the votes, they are everywhere. I'm kinda curious what ranger is thinking. But her wording rubs me the wrong way a bit, as it strongly reminds me of the scum!ranger of open 644.

[karnos]

For the record:
There are thoughts I am, very deliberately, holding back from giving.

I actually am playing sub-optimally right now because of it, because I think that there's a huge payoff if I time things right.

This is very reminiscent of this post from scum!Ranger in a completed game:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p7993356
"The only explanation I'm holding back on is an explanation which once I give, will absolutely dominate the game.
I don't want to give that yet." - Ranger


Yet, I can't deny that holstering on n1 would be incredibly risky for scum, so I am not about to jump out and call ranger scum because of this odd similarity in posting style. However, I would feel terrible if I kept this to myself and ranger did end up flipping scum in the end, so I need to least put it out here and see what the rest of you think of it.

[karnos]

Damnit, we need to make some progress and consolidate votes.

I think we just need to get claims out from the remaining players.

VOTE: Aneninen You are the first in line. Please claim your role. You can keep the night to yourself, as randomly generated nights can be duplicated.

Also, pick whether you want sircakez or persivul to claim next.

[karnos]

no one's playing and I'm bored.

I agree, the game is in a frustrating place right now.

I'm just going to lynch Aneninen if he doesn't at least claim. I think getting the remaining claims will allow us to determine the scummiest of the potential scum.

TBH, I think sircakez should just go ahead and claim now as well to save time.

[karnos]

Aneninen, if you are against claiming, why? We have discussed it a bit previously in the thread, most confirmed town has already claimed.

If everyone claims and we end with (for example) 8 claimed/confirmed cops and 5 claimed/confirmed docs, we know that scum are hiding among the cop claims. Do you disagree that this would be useful? Why won't you claim?

[karnos]

It is LYLO. Strategically, the correct move is to vote no lynch, because our chance of lynching scum will be better tomorrow after another night kill.

Unless there is a cop with new information to share... but I think all the claimed cops are dead or already gave results?

[karnos]

Sorry for the absence, on vacation and I thought I would have time to check in each night but things didn't work out. I expect to have some time to catch up and post later this evening.

[karnos]

K. Initial read done. I don't have a ton of time to devout to the game right now, but I'll be back on Monday and have my full attention available then.

That said, I am glad to see the sircakez case is finally getting some attention. Lets see a red flip!

VOTE: sircakez

[karnos]

Sircakez

On my way home. After reading rangers case I want to at least get a chance to read through some iso before committing to a lynch. Can't do that comfortably while driving. We have the time, let's hold off another day please.

[karnos]

Oops. This is why i hate phone posting.

UNVOTE: sircakez

[karnos]

Here's an idea.
Transcend is, sort-of, vaguely making analysis: not much, not very well, fairly biased and arrogant (which is ironic given his accusation about me), but he is, at least,

doing work

.
I'm a little exhausted right now, and I'll have a busy day or two of work (I guarantee I'll be free by Wednesday though), so I may not be able to finish my own analysis right now...but at least I am doing some.

Nobody else has

.
Literally, none of you.

I'm not talking commentary.
All of us are doing commentary.
Commenting on the latest rounds of posting from players.

Meh. My vacation messed with my ability to follow the game a little, but now that I have caught up I see nothing has actually changed. I still think SirCakez is scummy. I also think by PoE one of the doc claims is scum. Other than that, it's just beating around the same bush over and over.

BTW, I feel good to good this now that I have had a chance to read through from my PC.

VOTE: SirCakez

Nothing is "super obvious scum", but nothing is from anyone else so we have to pick someone somehow. What I really don't like is how he has been reliably predicting lynch flips as town pretty much all game long. If his town reads are so good, he should be strongly opposing the lynch instead of sorta kinda commenting occasionally while letting the lynches happen. OTOH, I think the more likely explanation is that he is playing from knowledge as scum, and looking for some positive town cred by seeming to oppose the lynches he knows will flip green.


I've suspected him since back day 2. Can we please just flip him? If he is town we congratulate scum for playing a damn fine game and hope for a doc save. If he is scum, I can say "told you so" and we can look for his partners tomorrow.

[karnos]

we might be waiting a while....

Why not make good use of the time? If you aren't scum, who is? When you flip town, who should we lynch?

[karnos]

If it's a scumflip, and that would point to Chip Butty & Ranger as partners, or a bus.

If it's town flip the game is 99% likely to be over anyway. GL doc.

[karnos]

Late entry for me.

So, no lynch seems like a potential choice, but I agree that it would probably not actually make our decision easier.

That said, if we are lynching today, why ranger over chip butty? Is it just because chip is mia? I don't really have a strong preference myself, but I do have a bit of a preference towards a chip lynch, assuming he checks back in (I'm against the idea of lynching him before he returns).

Lets not rush things. If we get this wrong it's game over.

[karnos]

Prod response. Sorry, computer conked out on me.

Mod: V/LA until 10 August.

I'll try to read up tomorrow...

And we still wait...

[karnos]

If Karnos wants to l-1 and it sits I'll hammer

UNVOTE:

My worry is chip at this point. If he is scum with someone other than ranger, I'd fully expect him to quick hammer as soon as I vote. On the other hand, you can't be scum if ranger is town, so I am not concerned about you hammering.

Basically if chip is scum with {transcend, or persivul} voting ranger right now is handing the game to the scum.

[karnos]

OTOH, the idea of waiting until Aug 10 for Chip to get off V/LA just sounds incredibly boring. Ugh, I feel like it's a coin flip wither way, I'm willing to go for it.

YOLO!

VOTE: Ranger

[karnos]

I'm feeling good about a Ranger lynch now. Her defenses remind me of Stack the Deck Ranger, scum. That game had a lot of the same sort of dueling-town wagons, where scum were fine with not hammering because they knew eventually a townie was getting lynched either way.

The fact that Chip stepped in and didn't hammer pretty much confirms that we can't be in a scenario where Ranger is town and Chip is scum.

[karnos]

Should be able to read up in a few hours...

12 hours later...

Chip, come back to us! If you are town, we need you paying attention here, this is LYLO.

If you are scum.... it would be a lot more fun to play against active scum, rather than giving-up scum.

[karnos]

So the big question on my mind right now... (assume a scum flip)

Is this Chip going for the bus, since the lynch is inevitable, or is this actually town Chip, and Murdercat is scum among a crazy gambit scum Ranger?

Probably just scum Chip, that makes a lot more sense, but I want to consider both possibilities, and might as well throw it out before I get killed tonight.

[karnos]

Sure, release the TOPIC!

Well played everyone. I think a key aspect was lack of any cop investigations on the scum team, a guilty and it would have all fallen apart.

[karnos]

And you have not said lol I win so ok we are good. Flip chip tomorrow, there's a good chance I'll die tonight because I'm doc. I'm not going to say who I'm targeting.

Sorry if my lack of gloating gave you the wrong idea. I had to play it safe just in case you made a save, not knowing you were n3 doc.

[karnos]

I knew it, karnos! Damn you.

I was afraid of you, had to go for the night kill.

[karnos]

I think karnos is mafia who fake claimed cop?

You got me.