Mini 1438: Gonzo Mafia (Scum Win)
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Let me go through the reasoning:
HD claims cop
IaI says he got an innocent result on HD town.
IaI says we should not lynch our scum reads or get them to claim so that HD can be protected by the scum team's ignorance of whether there is a doc or not.
-> Changes his mind, asks Rubicon to claim.
-> Does not get angry at Mantis for the mistake.
-> Claims Mantis is trying to get him killed, before he becomes obv. town because of his protown play this day.
-> You don't think IaI would do this because it lowers his chances of mislynches. Given the player's reads at the time of his announcement.
Is this correct?
Problem statement: when I gave my reads, I was fully and completely aware of who he had in his pool of investigation. I could have just as easily changed my secondary scum read, I hadn't announced it yet, and could have moved it into the other pool of investigations. but I didn't care because that's not my primary objective. Further, he has used this very same reasoning to defend himself from suspicion. The job of the scum team is to not get lynched. He has tried to convinced people of this by arguing that it wouldn't make sense for him to do what he has done as scum. But that is what scum's primary objective is. With that said, I'm more worried about the leading, than the "I'd never do this as scum" bit. Town do that a lot too. Sometimes it even makes sense. I'm also worried because his play changed substantially from day 1 to now.-
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That said, he has also tried to protect our lead (1 scum for 1 town is what I consider a lead), and there is only so much diving one scum can do before coming up for air without ruining their chances of winning. He HAS put himself at a disadvantage as scum, but he has also tried to reap the benefits of doing so.-
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Ugh, Bork was flawless. The only thing he was guilty of was an initial disinterest in who got lynched.
I don't understand why Rubicon would do what he has done, it never made sense. There seems to be an apologetic air to replacing into Bork's slot and ruining the read on it, like he's more concerned about his individual performance and the performance of his predecessor than the disadvantage it brought to the town, further he KNEW what everyone read Bork as. Replacements always have weird reads and weirder reasonings. They're not involved to the same extent and see different things than we do. It can sometimes be an advantage and they can be really accurate, but it can also sometimes be bad. His reasoning never made any sense and it still doesn't. It was neither clean nor efficient.
I can't decide yet. And I don't have the time to re-iso the two leading wagons. Fudge.-
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UNVOTE:
I can't spend too much time right now on this. I will check this place occasionally throughout the day so that we don't end up with a no lynch.
Yes, 'he' is IaI
^ This is also with the addition of HD's particular argument for why IaI is town. Which I assume linked to IaI asking for who everyone's scum reads before the day started, and that HD felt he was an easy mislynch due to the number of players who had a scum read on him when the day started. I am arguing somewhat for the opposite, that it may be taking a dive, so as to ascend with him.In post 2978, I Am Innocent wrote:
If Kuror ends up being scum, I am pretty sure the last scum will be in his pool of suspects to investigate from N2, which at this point is only Remembrance and Mantis. I still lean towards Remembrance, but Mantis has felt very scummy today.In post 2964, buldermar wrote:IAI, forgive me if you have already commented on it, but what do you think of mantis voting kuror when taking into consideration your own pool to lynch from in order of preference being kuror then mantis?
Since that didn't answer your question, while I could see a Kuror/Mantis team, I feel it is more likely one of them are scum rather than both of them. (Either it is Kuror and Remembrance or Mantis and ?)
In post 2974, Mantisdreamz wrote:i should say that i'm more unsure of IAI & HD pulling a gambit... just since it pretty much reveals their team (so huge risk)
but, scum could easily just pick a town player in thread to clear, and still look legit. especially - if they know or plan to night kill that person soon anyway.So scum IAI clears town HD AFTER HD claims N3 cop? Then tells all remaining players to not claim so town HD (now a known cop) has a chance to be protected as far as scum know (since you and Rubicon were unknown at that time, and only 1 could be a scum if I were scum too).
No, that is some serious straw grasping there. You want me dead BEFORE HD gets killed at night, because the paragraph above basically moves me strongly towards likely town since it is so pro-town.
Mantis's recent stance towards me (because i don't think anyone will get behind a IAI lynch. I think he's steering... take a look at his last post. If he's scum, he's lining up the lynches very well...) reminded me of this.In post 1204, kuror0 wrote:Mantis trying to soft push a lynch on Nacho. O.o
The quote I did above and this one:
Gives me the vibes of: "Well I would like to lynch him but I am not sure, so anyone care to go first to encourage me?".In post 1201, Mantisdreamz wrote: do you think the nacho lynch is a bad one today, due to the PR claim?
unvote Kuror
Vote Mantis-
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1. Yes.
2. Yes.
That's why it's impossible for them to be a scum team this game. Because HD would not have pointed out Mantis's mistake if he was. Because if he lives, the gambit instantly fails. HD recognizes it too.
The reason I still want to lynch Rubicon is because this buys the scum team a lot of time and gives them a lot less pressure. Wisdom was the ideal player in that he pressured and questioned everyone. And it was ridiculously helpful, especially after he died. Since we can go back and get a bunch of information on it. But we're running out of time. We now have all the players outed. 6 docs and 6 cops. An stupidly convenient number where we can't determine which side has a fake claim in it.
In post 3018, buldermar wrote:
I don't really see how you outing your role could potentially benefit town, and I can see how it could potentially hurt town... Am I missing something here?In post 2988, Mantisdreamz wrote:i'll out the role if the rest of town thinks that fine to do right now.In post 3019, buldermar wrote:
Why would you not do it and then point out how you'd never do it as scum if you're scum? I don't like this self-meta argument at all.In post 2992, Mantisdreamz wrote:also mollie, if i were scum why would i be playing the way i have? voting remembrance, then removing my vote.. changing mind on him.. reads being all over the place. scum are way more careful, and you know this.
The posts right above my accusation looked like someoneIn post 3020, buldermar wrote:
Why???? What the fuck is the point of you outing your role?In post 3006, Mantisdreamz wrote:alright, it did occur that scum wouldn't out themselves
night 5 docwho cared, a lot.a bunch of question marks, and such. This would be okay coming from newbie town, or someone who has demonstrated anxiety, but from you it just looks forced. You've always been asking questions and contributing, but you've never really ever acted like that before now. It's exaggerated. I've seen this sort of stuff from scum (though usually closer to lylo), where they start to overcompensate.
I think we have 7 or so hours.-
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2 IaI <- Mollie, Mantis
2 Mantis <- HD, Kuror0
1 Buldermar <- Rubicon
No one else is voting.
Buldermar (L-4): Rubicon
mantisdreamz (L-3): kuror0, Human Destroyer
I Am Innocent (L-3): mantisdreamz, pirate mollie
SE-Asians, buldermar, I Am Innocent, Remembrance
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline is Sunday, May 12th 2013, at 12:00 AM EST.Last edited by Majiffy on Sun May 12, 2013 1:30 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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@Mollie, I am hesitating, really badly. T
I keep thinking it over, if lynching any of these 3 players will reveal anything definitive. That can help me catch another one, even if they aren't. I just haven't caught anything, except what Buldermar just did. Mantis, I just don't know, she's pointing out that I'm town and making a case for it, and she's right. But she also has done exactly as you've said Mollie and that bugs the shit out of me. This isn't lylo, I don't know why I care this much, but I do. I want to see a red name today, but I can't with my level of play.. I should just vote and let the pieces fall where they may and then go from there, but I'm just not functioning like that lately, I liked my old scum hunting system better.-
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The only agenda I have is for you to not make up your own story. Anyone else could have, who actually agreed that Rubicon should die, you didn't. It's a contradiction. No one was going to hammer without a claim, and that just shows you're trying to look town, by saying it that way at all. Do you honestly think if you didn't say anything someone would quick hammer and out themselves as scum? No. They would go by standard procedure.-
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This is for you though. Thoughts? I didn't notice this.IaI wrote:"-> Does not get angry at Mantis for the mistake." How do you know I wasn't angry. I have been angry at a lot of things this game. Another thing that angered me that I didn't feel the need to be brought up was Bulder's claim D3....no reason to say he was a night 2 doc. Keeping quiet adds to the pool of hidden possible docs that could have protected HD N3. Instead the scum could just check Bulder off their list as a doctor who already used his power (assuming he is town)-
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IaI. You keep wifoming. Let me argue your way for a second. Why would I Nk or lynch those who were either completely certain I was town or had made cases for why I was town if they were scum? Cases which you have completely ignored. But you see, I don't argue this way because I think people are smart enough to go through and make their own conclusions. But you don't, you think everyone here is an idiot, except yourself. This is probably why Nacho thought you're an easy lynch.
Feel free to investigate me. But two things are going to happen tomorrow.
1. I will be dead.
2. Jon will not be dead.
3. You just forecasted who to investigate.
4. You know this but did it anyway. Which is anti-town. You're pretty much tunneling if you're town, since investigating me will reveal nothing I didn't already know.
5. Rubicon lied about replacing out as he was bored of mafia. Because he tried to replace into another game after he left this one. Which means...he's a jerk.
<- why would I need to unvote to consider your plan?IaI wrote:This was the 4th vote. Remembrance and Buldermar already had 2 votes on Rubicon, but never did remove their votes despite both considering the plan at points. I am pretty sure one of them are scum.
<- Despite all your attempts to look at town as possible. Including but not limited saying you thought someone was going to hammer Rubicon, so you needed to ask him to claim before that happened. When this argument makes no logical sense, except you desperately trying to look town in all scenarios to gain credit to use as ammunition. Guess who else you killed because he kept challenging you? Guess who all of your scum reads are? Those that challenge you.To me, it looks like scum Kuror doesn't want me looking too town.-
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Sure, why did you sheep IaI.In post 3116, jon_h61 wrote:@ IAI I like your analysis, it coincides with mine. My plan for today ATM is to vote Kuror0 and investigate Remembrance tonight.
VOTE: Kuror0
(Obligatory Amish tell) I disagree with a lot of my predecessor's reads and opinions. I can't explain or defend any of them.
I've read most of the thread, and ALL of the last fifteen pages. I'm doing ISO's and looking things over to see what connections I can come up with.Any and all questions or accusations welcome.-
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I don't understand it. It doesn't matter who Jon investigates if he is town because he will die. Investigating me, if he is town won't change anything, in fact announcing to investigate me under the assumption that Jon is town is down right illogical. I don't think he understands his position. The only thing directing the investigation does is implicate me in his death via guilt by association, a logical fallacy. Not that, that actually means anything either. @IaI, why did you even ask I be investigate if you're assuming Jon is town. Are you...? I don't understand.
I'm banking on Jon = Scum because Rubicon lied about his reasons for replacing out. If he lives tomorrow, we'll know the answer to this question regardless.-
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Like let me go further on this reasoning IaI.
Let's start with a proposition where you're town, I'm town and Jon's town, If you tell Jon to investigate me and he is town and you're town they are going to kill Jon or I because he would confirm me as town and erase your suspicion of my slot if you're town.
Scenario 1: I get nked: they would use my death to create more suspicions on his slot leading him to get lynched tomorrow. The reason being is that just because he announces he will investigate me is not a guarantee he will. If he investigates someone else and finds them to be scum, they risk losing since the rest of the town would be motivated to go back through their whole iso to confirm the veracity of this fact. Which is why I don't want to lynch that probable scum slot. He could very well investigate anyone else, so if he is town he will die tonight.
Scenario 2 (More likely if he's town): Jon get's nked. Or, Jon dies and your conf. bias kill me assuming I am scum that nked him and the scum team hammer for the win.
This second all town scenario, is generally, why I am willing to kill you today if I have to, because even if you're not scum you're going to lose this game which I have tried very hard to win. Because you're simply a liability if you're town. I can't trust you to pick right in Lylo. It's painfully obvious you're tunneling and ignoring the huge amount of arguments made to the contrary if you're town. Even this argument you're going to ignore, I've dealt with this too much.
Second set of propositions: I'm town, you're town and he's scum (he's probably scum) then he would either claim a guilty on me so that you would vote and they would hammer for the win using your conf. bias as a spring board. Or they would nk me. There's not really any advantage to confirming me as town when you're reading me as scum if you're town.
Now, why is Jon voting with you, IaI. For one, the last thing he should want is to end this day early given that he is going to die tonight if he is town. This uncharacteristic willingness to lynch Kuror0 right away is not in the town's or his best interests if he wants to contribute to the town he should think about it.
Pedit: I don't think it matters who you want to investigate if you're town Jon. Just investigate who you think is scum. I know I'm not and I also know that there is enough evidence to come to this conclusion in my iso. It's a waste to investigate me for that reason. Personally, I am almost completely sure you are scum because Rubicon lied to my face (metaphorically speaking).-
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He voted Asians.In post 136, I Am Innocent wrote:
This sounds like something scum would say, trying to sound townie. In actuality, town would realize that a vote on themselves is one less vote to pressure mafia, and would be best off trying to prove their towniness. Me no likey, so me:In post 118, SE-Asians wrote:
Nah your vote is good. Keep in me.In post 115, pirate mollie wrote:that isn't an answer
in what post did wisdom troll you?
give a good answer and I will back off
vote: SE-Asians
(will be unavailable for most of the day due to the Easter holiday)-
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@Jon
^ He wanted to vote with me instead of other players who have squeaky clean records or have game mechanics/meta defense to back up their innocence. I think he hid behind me since I was the most active at this period.In post 3043, Rubicon wrote:If I'm not replaced by the deadline, I'll switch my vote to whichever wagon Remembrance tells me to.-
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VOTE: IaI
The business end: If Jon is town, and he dies you'll vote me(This is assuming you are town) and lose. Since you have now declared you will be doing this, I can't let that happen. Change your position if you're town. I've read all of what you have said. Now go back and Iso me and iso the many people who have flipped town that have argued that I am town. Or you can die and we can have a very calm, very well reasoned and non-tunneling mylo, if you're town.-
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And how does this protect me, have you ever run into scum who have argued this way with you and voted you for this reason? Would saying all the scummy stuff you did make me more vulnerable? I don't understand your thought process, you believe these players to be very competent and then ignore their reads in favor of your own.In post 3227, I Am Innocent wrote:So this vote is to 1) change my position and 2) to have a calm, very well reasoned and non- tunneling mylo.
Nothing about me being scummy.Nice way to protect yourself when I flip town.
PS - the funniest part is how you keep saying I am pushing you when in fact I am more sure and am more pushing kuror.-
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That was impossible to discern from how you wrote that. I thought you were asking Kuror0.
Associative tells are false. Some specific reasons that come though my head is that Kuror0 coached me in my last newbie game, the whole time, constantly warning me of my over confidence in my reads and such. Also, scum tend to coach inside of the scum chat, so that's definitely a jump. Do you coach in thread when you're scum? Or do you wait and bus when appropriate? If you want you can find Nacho's post where he links to my town game, here Rem town. in that thread you have Kuror0, giving me advice the whole way through, and we're both town. A lot of what Kuror0 is saying in regards to me is referencing that game. And there was a huge argument about town hunting in that game, it was very much a strange game where I was trying out a style that was extremely scummy. And it confused a lot of people. I'd also say that you're using the wrong word, that isn't town reading (he only did that more recently) he was at first fence sitting and then it gradually progressed to town. Similar to his gradual progression from null-Nacho to town Nacho.
Can you explain your Se-Asians scum read? Or did I miss it somewhere?
kuror0 (L-3): I Am Innocent
I Am Innocent (L-2): kuror0, Remembrance
jon_h61 (L-3): pirate mollie
Not Voting: buldermar, SE-Asians, jon_h61
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, May 30th, at 10:00 PM EST.Last edited by Majiffy on Sat May 25, 2013 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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It's by no means bad. I'm thinking about it. In general you're right, usually Kuror0 pushes at least one lynch per game, but he has acted weak before (my first newbie game for example where he didn't really take a stand at the end) I don't mind if you think I'm town or not, the only thing that bothers me about it is that 1. if the scum do something dumb and let you live we end up with with "rem is town" which doesn't help me much. And your contributions now, which won't amount to much if you have me as a scum read and I'm like, "Well, I'm not ."
Kuror0 is something I have been thinking about a lot. I've isoed him three times and each time I looked at what got you confused, a natural progression that landed with him leaning town. I want to ask you something though, in the context of those words he used on Wisdom, do you think them inappropriate? What do you think of Kuror0's response to what Fate said about him?-
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^ Yeah, probably. I'm wondering why Jon went to the effort he did for associative tells with Kuror0. But it's not worth it to make these associative tells if Kuror0 is his scum partner because he would be alive and even if Kuror0 did flip scum, it wouldn't save him. It's not really worth the effort to keep IaI 9his partner) alive either, since the associative tells would then break down when Kuror0 died.
@Kuror0 I would like you to answer who you're going to suspect tomorrow if it turns out IaI is town. You dodged that question pretty much.-
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If it's within those 3 then I'm going to ask myself how it all fits together. And think about what they've done. I'm never going to stop thinking about my reads until I'm either dead or the game is finished.
I don't understand why Jon would go through the effort of going through associative tells as mafia. And I'm trying to figure that out. I'm trying to figure out how Kuror0 and IaI keep picking at each other and how that works if they're a scum team. They've been narrowed down and are pretty much forced to push at each other, but I'm wondering if the scum team is worried or what their game plan is and how they're reacting to all of this. I want to make sure this makes sense.-
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Glad you could use us to vent your frustrations. Hope you feel better. Still town. You still aren't paying attention to anything but 2 posts out of 400 (Maybe if you looked at the other's you'd see what Mantis, Wisdom, and Nacho saw). You seem so convinced of their competence and yet, you ignore them in favor of vastly inferior arguments (Yours).
I only have one last question for you before I'm okay with whoever wants to hammer you. Do you agree with Nacho and Fate that
1. You are town as shit.
2. An easy mislynch.-
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Because I'm hesitating Se-Asians. Remember that whine thing? That's pretty much it. I want to make sure. Asking this question lets me get a feel for it. I'm asking myself questions that might have wifom logic. Because I'm not perfectly inescapably logical.
But I've seen many town whine and whine and whine...And IaI is certainly whining. I want to win, not have people who get along with me.-
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Also Nacho thought he was both town and an easy mislynch. The difficulty is, is that I already know that Nacho postures. He sometimes says players are "Town as shit" or whatever in order to get a reaction out of the person scum reading that slot to see how they react to it. What I'm thinking about right now is the same thing. Did Nacho mean that seriously? Or was he just trying to see how people who were not reading IaI as town to get a reaction out of them? That's why I wish he was a little more open at the end of the day.
Wisdom also thought he was dumb town. Unlike IaI, I did listen to them.-
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I'm painfully sure that Jon is scum. I don't know if I'm tunneling or not. But I'm keeping it out of my head because he'll die if he's scum. But he DIRECTED the lynch to Kuror. And that's why I don't think Kuror0 is scum.
What's the point of bussing your partner when you're the more obvious of the two?
He has constantly flip-flopped and buddied enough since he got here.-
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- Joined: January 20, 2013
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Remembrance Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3326
- Joined: January 20, 2013
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Remembrance Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3326
- Joined: January 20, 2013
I'm not sure. He has been saying he is out of it this entire time, so he has his excuse. I've made mistakes like that all the time as town. I will be rereading the whole thread tomorrow. For now, I can see it just being a miscount. That is to say, him derping it up.
But it could be a scum derp. From what I can understand he is going forward with the proposition that the last scum are within that field of players. He might have simply meant to write: "The hypothesis that the the team is within these three players"
Or something to that effect.
kuror0 (L-2): I Am Innocent, SE-Asians
I Am Innocent (L-3): kuror0
jon_h61 (L-2): Remembrance, pirate mollie
Not Voting: buldermar, jon_h61
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, May 30th, at 10:00 PM EST.Last edited by Majiffy on Wed May 29, 2013 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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Remembrance Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3326
- Joined: January 20, 2013
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