Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

[Umlaut]

MURDERCAT died during the night. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

---

Day 5

Vote Count 5.0

Rubidium, ₃₇Rb

— alkali metal, standard atomic weight 85.47, group 1, period 5, s-block

Not voting

(3): Mizzytastic, safebet222, Egix96

With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to eliminate.

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-12-11 14:50:00)

[Mizzytastic]

I'm gonna have to do a soft V/LA over the next 24~48 hours, I'm reinstalling my computer and while I shouldn't have any problems you never quite know what might happen.

[Egix96]

Spoiler: Rereading

#37, 43, 48 - Hunterr (safebet slot) gaining some town points over Mizzy here.

#72 - Slight indirect defence of Mizzy? I'm actually not entirely sure what c4e5 meant here, I regret not asking at the time.

#87 - "I think the wagon lends credence to town!c4 too. Even for a mostly RVS wagon I think scum are less likely to wagon their partner like that, especially in a newbie game. Accidental hammers happen." - The problem with this statement is that it assumes that scum were on the wagon to begin with.

#111 - I kinda doubt that this is a bus considering how petty the reasoning seems.

#112 - "Mizzy's treatment of cyl is horribly inconsistent with Mizzy's treatment of me." - Also this seems a bit too risky to point out if c4/Mizzy are teamed.

"hunterr -- Initial vote on me reads as obligatory contribution based on the only thing he can find to talk about. Eventually he gives an actual reason with original thought though so that's nice." - Very subtle shade that is walked back on in the very next sentence.

#119 - Why would scum ever say this about a buddy tho >__<

#135 - Continuation of 112a.

#218 - "I don't think you can make a read on c4 up to this point" - Very slight +town for safebet as this was in disagreement with Mizzy's TR of the slot.

#244 - "Also, do you think the game's general low activity so far is bad for town? If so, what should we do about it?" - This mildly feels like the sort of question that, if asked by scum, would be aimed at a townie (in an effort to subconsciously gain favour with them by being "helpful") rather than towards a buddy. (I'm aware that this was said by safebet towards c4 but my logic is that it makes safebet less likely to be scum.)

#324 - "Take big issue with Egix and Mizzy forgetting this is a newbie game (re: cyl)." - Rule of two?

#346 - +town for bringing attention to what was, in hindsight, practically outing from c4.

== End of D1 ==

TL;DR - I'm actually leaning more towards voting Mizzy now.

[safebet222]

I'll be around in a couple hours.

[safebet222]

I'm here now... rereading for the umpteenth time in the last 3 days.

[safebet222]

I'm 3 hours into rereading Mizzy's, Egix's C4's and FF's ISO. I am tired and going to bed. Gonna start with Mizzy first... I'm having a hard time seeing Mizzy as scum...

Day 1 - I see it as unlikely that Mizzy opens by trying to break RVS by attacking her scum partner than turning her read around all between posts 24 and 60.
I also don't see C4 voting Mizzy later in the day as likely scum theater along with posts 128, 136, 331 and 347. Just hard for me to believe.

Day 2 - I don't see why Mizzy keeps pushing the questioning with C4 in post 391 as scum. After a failed kill, wouldn't you just pay attention to the elephant in the room? This continues from posts 405 to 418. I really don't see the scum motivation for Mizzy to continue this line of questioning against her partner and leading up to the vote in post 450 then putting FF at E-2 later in post 651.

Also post 730 "I don't see muh/fferyllt - that would be bussing d1 and d2" Don't see scum!Mizzy saying this after bussing scum!C4 and scum!ff all of D2.

Day 3 - Does scum really try to gamesolve as much as Mizzy tried to to open D3? I also don't see scum! Mizzy being the one to give intent on 72. I must admit D3 was not a very good day for Mizzy overall. Also #1344 was in regards to MC's push for a 72/Mizzy scum team but I think also applies to a FF/C4/Mizzy team.

Day 4 - 1697 more gamesolving... ++Town

Also... overall, I've townread Mizzy all game... it's really hard trying to find where everyone has gone wrong... I'll be around tomorrow.

[safebet222]

I'm 3 hours into rereading Mizzy's, Egix's C4's and FF's ISO. I am tired and going to bed. Gonna start with Mizzy first... I'm having a hard time seeing Mizzy as scum...

Day 1 - I see it as unlikely that Mizzy opens by trying to break RVS by attacking her scum partner than turning her read around all between posts 24 and 60.
I also don't see C4 voting Mizzy later in the day as likely scum theater along with posts 128, 136, 331 and 347. Just hard for me to believe.

Day 2 - I don't see why Mizzy keeps pushing the questioning with C4 in post 391 as scum. After a failed kill, wouldn't you just pay attention to the elephant in the room? This continues from posts 405 to

410

. I really don't see the scum motivation for Mizzy to continue this line of questioning against her partner and leading up to the vote in post 450 then putting FF at E-2 later in post 651.

Also post 730 "I don't see muh/fferyllt - that would be bussing d1 and d2" Don't see scum!Mizzy saying this after bussing scum!C4 and scum!ff all of D2.

Day 3 - Does scum really try to gamesolve as much as Mizzy tried to to open D3? I also don't see scum! Mizzy being the one to give intent on 72. I must admit D3 was not a very good day for Mizzy overall. Also #1344 was in regards to MC's push for a 72/Mizzy scum team but I think also applies to a FF/C4/Mizzy team.

Day 4 - 1697 more gamesolving... ++Town

Also... overall, I've townread Mizzy all game... it's really hard trying to find where everyone has gone wrong... I'll be around tomorrow.

Fixed a post number in my Day 2 above

[Mizzytastic]

Right, computer is working though I'm still sorting stuff out so I'll be in and out. First thoughts

Day 5 Strategy - scum!Egix would be bold trying to get Safebet to flip on me - he has a hard time winning if we end up crossvoting, scum!Safebet would be going for the easier option trying to get me to go on Egix after CAT tried to get me away from my paranoia there

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2. I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

[safebet222]

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2.

I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

I'm here... Did you find anything yet Mizzy?

[safebet222]

I'm trying to do my own meta dive on Egix to see how mine differs from FF's. I'm having a hard time telling the difference between his scum games and town games...

[safebet222]

I did look for your games Mizzy... I see you've replaced out pretty much every time. It was hard to really make comparisons.

[safebet222]

@egix... You're D1 reread and conclusion seem pretty inconsistent. If you're leaning Mizzy is 111 distancing or just happenstance if its not bussing? And if it was simply distancing why would they continue referring to it the rest of the day?

[Egix96]

@egix... You're D1 reread and conclusion seem pretty inconsistent.
If you're leaning Mizzy is 111 distancing or just happenstance if its not bussing?
And if it was simply distancing why would they continue referring to it the rest of the day?

(Line returns added by me)
- Well yeah, that's because the tldr is how I actually feel; I'm not trying to just make a best-fit conclusion of the points I've laid out. The problem I have here is that you both have quite a lot in your favour but I can't just go "welp I guess maybe you're both town" because obviously I know that can't be true.
- I actually could see 111 as coming from inexperienced scum because it's vaguely reminiscent of a push I made on my own scumbuddy in my first-ever Newbie game (even if it was only because I was panicking and really didn't know what I was doing at the time).
- My counterpoint to this is that, why wouldn't they? It would look rather strange if they just dropped the subject for no apparent reason.

[safebet222]

Ok... So what do you make of Mizzy pushing C4/ FF up until the no vote was floated?

[safebet222]

Okay... here we go on Egix...

Spoiler:

Day 1 - Apart from a comment about disagreeing with their read on Cyl and on mindmeld reads, there was very little interaction between Egix and C4. In fact the only thing notable was a day-long push of cyl. He only moved the vote after I asked him to. Post 335 is interesting in hindsight, but it was a sentiment he expressed to others. Null.

Day 2- Back on the Cyl push... posts 401, 462, 605 (now on Spangled), 695, . Some interesting posts:

384 - Rule of three post...

463 - I think this comes from scum more often than it comes from town... it is placing possibilities in front of probabilities. It is also looking sew seeds of doubt rather than looking to resolve anything. Mizzy, thoughts?

694 - Moves vote upon request again... Calls C4/FF lhf... then clarifies it in 698 by saying it is the slot because C4 was low post counts. I find this relevant because it seems manufactured IMO. It seems like he needed a reason to not vote FF and put her at E-1. FF had posted quite a bit for her short time in the game and there should have been a better reason than referring to C4...

Day 3 - 1005 - Egix needed to justify the vote on 72 instead of FF... took him overnight to think of it. IMO it's just not a very good one...
1012, 1027 - Back on the Cyl/Spangled push. This is getting repetitive... like the only agenda he has is laying low, pushing the cyl slot and not much else in terms of helping town unless he is asked.
1139 - votes Spangled when asked...
1273 - votes 72 because he is asked
1567 - Still on Spangled
1569 - This post gives me pause... not sure of the scum motivation for being reflective like this... perhaps trying to buddy the UTR. It's just awkward as scum, imo.
From post 1560 to the end of day 3 it was fairly easy to try and rack up town points just by being around.

Day 4 - He posted about 6 times... and we elimm'd Spangled. I have to admit, at this point of the game, I was thinking it had to be Spangled too. He was always getting the axe here though. In itself, the Spangled play comes from town or scum, obviously. It was pretty easy to see that we were gonna get 3 votes on Spangled one way or another.

All his other posts just seemed like they weren't leading to anywhere in particular. They was some good commentary and reactions to posts, some good observations, but really no conclusions apart from his singular agenda of pushing the cyl-slot.

All in all, my best guess is that it is Egix... I just think that, despite his low post style, town!Egix comes up with more conclusions apart from pushing one slot and scum! Egix is content getting to F3 with a singular agenda and nothing else of note.

One last thought for the evening...

Sad sad game if its a lurking egix win

[Egix96]

Ok... So what do you make of Mizzy pushing C4/ FF up until the no vote was floated?

Although Mizzy definitely questioned c4 plenty (e.g. 391, 405), I would hardly say that they were actively pushing on the c4 slot, as shown by the cold-footed (idk if that makes sense as a phrase but I'm sure you get the point) vote in:

I was getting close to voting c4 but I'm curious why 72 is so happy voting there when he still has half his isos to go.

But we do need wagons - I'm not sure there is anyone here I have a confident scumread on VOTE: c4

There's also this bit here which is setting off alarm bells for me because it suggests that Mizzy didn't really have a vested interest in evaluating the c4 slot:

If its town fferyllt one of 72 and muh is probably scum.

If it's town 72 I agree one of JDye and Spangled is prob scum.

I retreated to muh out of paranoia and the way he joined the c4 wagon bugging me.


VOTE: fferyllt

I think town ff has caught up enough to vote. And it's time to accept I might be wrong instead of waffling and go with what bugged me before people exerted charisma at me.

Pedit:

I only skimmed your c4 case actually.

I had my own stuff bugging me there

===

Day 3 - 1005 - Egix needed to justify the vote on 72 instead of FF... took him overnight to think of it. IMO it's just not a very good one...

Not true - that was something I found in real time while re-reading which was something I had only just been able to get around to doing at that point.

Back on the Cyl/Spangled push. This is getting repetitive... like the only agenda he has is laying low, pushing the cyl slot and not much else in terms of helping town unless he is asked.

Even if I haven't been very active this game, it definitely hasn't been out of choice. I was trying to re-evaluate, but just ended up conf-biasing because, hey, it turns out I'm actually not very good at resetting my brain and looking at everything through fresh eyes.

1569 - This post gives me pause... not sure of the scum motivation for being reflective like this... perhaps trying to buddy the UTR. It's just awkward as scum, imo.

Like, this is something I already knew about myself and it applied in plenty of my recent games, not just this one specifically. I just find it kinda ??? that

this

is the one thing that's giving you pause...

[safebet222]

Yeah, Egix, I'm not saying this is a slam dunk choice, by any means. And, like I said in before, I'm so bad at this I should probably create a scum read and do the opposite... But you really haven't had ANY other agenda than going after the Cyl/Spangled slot... you are never active in your games, its irrelevant... and Mizzy has been UTR the whole game.. can everyone be this wrong?

[safebet222]

Right, computer is working though I'm still sorting stuff out so I'll be in and out. First thoughts

Day 5 Strategy -

scum!Egix would be bold trying to get Safebet to flip on me - he has a hard time winning if we end up crossvoting

, scum!Safebet would be going for the easier option trying to get me to go on Egix after CAT tried to get me away from my paranoia there

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2. I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

@ Mizzy... why wouldn't it be just as likely that scum!Egix tries to convince you that I'm scum?

[Egix96]

Mizzy has been UTR the whole game

Except maybe D1

[Mizzytastic]

Right, computer is working though I'm still sorting stuff out so I'll be in and out. First thoughts

Day 5 Strategy -

scum!Egix would be bold trying to get Safebet to flip on me - he has a hard time winning if we end up crossvoting

, scum!Safebet would be going for the easier option trying to get me to go on Egix after CAT tried to get me away from my paranoia there

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2. I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

@ Mizzy... why wouldn't it be just as likely that scum!Egix tries to convince you that I'm scum?

When giving WIFOM based reads I tend to default to saying the most base level one. 1) cos wifom is just a part of the game we all know and have to anticipate and 2) cos higher levels of wifom are just less likely and generally come from fancy play syndrome or not anticipating why something is generally bad for scum to do

Possible? Yes. Just as likely? I don't think so but also leave it as an exercise for the reader - you are free to disagree

[safebet222]

When giving WIFOM based reads I tend to default to saying the most base level one. 1) cos wifom is just a part of the game we all know and have to anticipate and 2) cos higher levels of wifom are just less likely and generally come from fancy play syndrome or not anticipating why something is generally bad for scum to do

You lost me here, Mizzy. WTH are levels of WIFOM?

[Mizzytastic]

Level 1 thinking - scum won't do X cos it's bad for them

Level 2 thinking - scum will do X cos they wouldn't do it

Just how deep down the rabbit hole/nuanced you decide to make your read there

[safebet222]

Possible? Yes. Just as likely? I don't think so but also leave it as an exercise for the reader - you are free to disagree

Ok I understand what you mean. But thinking that scum!egix's baseline is to convice me that you're scum when for two days we knew that if we didn't catch scum d4 the game was going to be in your hands is super strange. What makes you think the baseline is what you say?

[Mizzytastic]

I'm saying in that post I think d5 strategy wise you are more likely to be scum because that doesn't make sense from scum!egix as a baseline

But VCA wise I think he looks worse than you

[Umlaut]

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