Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:18 am

Have faith MC... We'll catch scum today and win!

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:21 am

I really really don't think that C4 and Cyl bailing one right after the other is coincidence.

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:23 am

Okay... But in this circumstance where C4 almost certainly knew he would be on the chopping block?

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:26 am

Yes he did... Something about playing 2 other games on MU.

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:28 am

But that feeds into the narrative... He was busy, got jailed N1 andnlost the night kill... So he bails... Cyl is on her first forum game and doesn't wait around for the replacement.

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:33 am

I'm gonna be afk until later tonight. I'm about to cook turkey for the fam. I'll get to an iso dive on cyl/Spangled and Egix this weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:53 am

In post 1639, Mizzytastic wrote:Got it. Yeah, that narrative makes sense. Still super sus of Safebet though

I don't get how it's sus to suggest a perfectly plausible narrative. You can agree or not agree with the narrative, but saying I'm sus for suggesting it doesn't make sense, especially when you see it as a perfectly plausible narrative.

Mizzy, don't get me wrong, I understand the impulse to question my spot, just judge me for things that make sense, not things that don't.

Quote tag fixed

- Um

safebet222 · Thu Nov 26, 2020 9:56 am

In post 1643, Mizzytastic wrote:I'm saying I'm suspicious of you independently of that narrative making sense. I was just reaffirming that is my position cos it's start of day

Ok... Understood.

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:48 am

MC is conf town...

Mizzy - although isn't confirmed, is almost certainly town due to the N2 jail and her overall gameplay/tone.

Here is a comparison of Egix and Spangled of the points that make them possible scum...

Egix

Spoiler:

Spangled

Spoiler:

So, now I ask myself, who is more likely to be scum... I don't think its close, even considering Egix's low post numbers.

I ask each of you to line up the evidence on me, Egix and Spangled and ask yourselves the same question...

VOTE: Spangled

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:11 am

I skimmed FF's iso, Mizzy. I don't quite see where FF was ready to vote Spangled, or where FF particularly pushed for a Spangled elim... She played her scum reads pretty close to her vest. You know, "Welcome to Fferyland."

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:18 pm

In post 1652, Spangled wrote:a parting shot, so to speak — ‘only one scumread’ is so strange; why did you have two other wagons lined up if your scumread wasn’t going to go through?

Look at my iso from the end of D1 and you'll see. I didn't hide my intentions.

Nightfall was coming and town was apathetic to really push anyone. I made a determination (rightly or wrongly) that 72 wasn't gonna get elimm'd D1 so I decided to take the initiative to consolidate into 2 wagons instead of 4.

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:29 pm

In post 1662, Spangled wrote:I keep coming back to 218. Why was c4 among your townreads, even though you never really mentioned them in your catch-up?

Two reasons really... I was looking at 72 as my initial scumread and was really most interested in pushing his spot. Second, I'm trying to build a town block in the beginning of the game. Imo, Cooperation as town paramount to flushing out scum, can't do either if you're scumreading people that you're interested in cooperating with. At the time, I felt C4 was worth trying to get to cooperate with me...

After his posts in 249 and 252, I figured I wasn't gonna be so successful.

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:41 pm

In post 1661, Spangled wrote: You still haven’t explained what was scummy about pushing for massclaim; I explained my reasons doing it then; you really don’t seem to have bothered engaging with them.

I didn't answer you because of this...

In post 1125, Spangled wrote:
In post 991, safebet222 wrote:TOWN
Yours truly
Mizzy
JDye
Egix Null
FF Null to slight scumlean based on C4 hard defending Cyl and I now see Spangled as my main scum read right now.
Spangled
SCUM

72... you get your own category... Polarizing Scumtown??? In other words I don't know what to think about you. Your 1v1 with JDye screams TvT but your constant moving on scum reads is unsettling.
Your no massclaim analysis is spot on in my opinion
and what you say in your own defense about your playstyle makes sense along with your play at the end of D2. I'm gonna play nice with you for now... but my vote stays on Spangled.

Oh, it seems you disagree, sorry.

Why do you reckon JDye’s town?

Here are the posts where 72 lays out his reasoning and I lay out my reasoning...

In post 970, 72offsuit wrote:My strong preference is for no claims, we wagon/kick FF, we have a mislynch in hand. There is really no need to massclaim. The fact that scum hit vanilla townie shows that scum has bad PR reads or the game is stacked against scum and they were forced into a suboptimal kill based on the game dynamics. Massclaim just plays into scum's hands imo.

In post 973, 72offsuit wrote:So like i said, i STRONGLY suggest we kick FF or Bang. No massclaim.

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.
b) If we have a jailer, jailer is MUCH stronger once 1 scum is dead - if we correctly wagon and kick !scumFF or !scumbang

No surprises that FF is open to a massclaim, despite stating not to know when massclaims are good.

In post 979, safebet222 wrote:Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...

In post 973, 72offsuit wrote: a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.
In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.

Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:47 pm

As for the rest of your post... I wouldn't expect anything less than you defending your actions. Thankfully, I don't have to convince you that you are scum, I have to convince the others. Most of them laid out reasons that your slot is scummy. I'm just trying to remind them of those reads and add to the narrative.

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:26 pm

I answered the questions you had of me. The rest of your posts are you defending yourself. What is there to engage with? If you're trying to convince me that I shouldn't vote you, this is a pretty weird way to do it. If you're trying to convince others I am scum, I'm not thenonenyou need to be asking to engage with your posts.

safebet222 · Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:33 pm

In post 1669, Spangled wrote:
In post 1665, safebet222 wrote:
In post 1662, Spangled wrote:I keep coming back to 218. Why was c4 among your townreads, even though you never really mentioned them in your catch-up?
Two reasons really... I was looking at 72 as my initial scumread and was really most interested in pushing his spot. Second, I'm trying to build a town block in the beginning of the game. Imo, Cooperation as town paramount to flushing out scum, can't do either if you're scumreading people that you're interested in cooperating with. At the time, I felt C4 was worth trying to get to cooperate with me...

After his posts in 249 and 252, I figured I wasn't gonna be so successful.
So did you not try and read c4 before that?
That makes no sense; you say ‘you can’t cooperate with people you’re scumreading’ — was that your
reason
for behaving as if he was town? What?

You haven’t explained why you put c4 in your townreads initially; ‘because I wanted him to work with me’ doesn’t cut it; why did you want him to work with you if you hadn’t read him yet? I mean, you had, but where did the read come from? He doesn’t get any comments about how towniness, or lack thereof, in your catch-up.

It doesn't cut it for you... Fine. Is this all you got on me? Like I said, you need to be engaging others if I'm yoir target.

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:24 am

In post 1674, Spangled wrote: And you’ve mentioned others’ arguments for me being scum — can you point to the ones you agree with, please?

I'm not going to have time to dig them all up, unfortunately. They are posts mostly saying how your slot's play is off. Egix has been reading your slot as scum all game, so Iso'ing egix is a good start. Here are a few posts from 72 I have notes on (sorry no links)..

942
961-962
967
972
1145

Here's one from Mizzy, practically calling it out..

In post 651, Mizzytastic wrote:
If its town fferyllt one of 72 and muh is probably scum.

If it's town 72 I agree one of JDye and Spangled is prob scum.

I retreated to muh out of paranoia and the way he joined the c4 wagon bugging me.

VOTE: fferyllt

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:29 am

In post 1676, Spangled wrote:I have had a bit of a combative tone, I apologise. As I’m sure you can imagine, being more or less universally scumread tends not to help how one feels about the game and the people in it. But I am trying to engage with you in good faith.

I'm not sure I trust you that your weren't trying to bait me into a shit-show 1v1. I think I've answered enough of your questions.

Nonetheless, I do agree that you must be in an uncomfortable position.

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:37 am

In post 1677, Egix96 wrote:
In post 1667, safebet222 wrote:As for the rest of your post... I wouldn't expect anything less than you defending your actions. Thankfully, I don't have to convince you that you are scum, I have to convince the others. Most of them laid out reasons that your slot is scummy.
I'm just trying to remind them of those reads and add to the narrative.
Er... isn't that what scum would be doing though?

I'm not sure... I mean doesn't it depend on the game? FMPOV... we've got our votes on probable scum now... if all of my town reads at one point of the game or another pointed to reasons why that slot is bad, shouldn't I point to them and add my own pieces to the fold?

IDK... If you haven't noticed, I'm not really good at this. I thought I was supposed to convince people that my scum read should get voted.

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:50 am

In post 1657, safebet222 wrote:I skimmed FF's iso, Mizzy. I don't quite see where FF was ready to vote Spangled, or where FF particularly pushed for a Spangled elim... She played her scum reads pretty close to her vest. You know, "Welcome to Fferyland."

Nevermind Mizzy, I found it. Post 1100. I suppose I didn't pay much attention to 72 when he was so angry at getting wagoned. I'll have to reread that whole part again.

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:18 am

In post 1678, safebet222 wrote:
In post 1674, Spangled wrote: And you’ve mentioned others’ arguments for me being scum — can you point to the ones you agree with, please?
I'm not going to have time to dig them all up, unfortunately. They are posts mostly saying how your slot's play is off. Egix has been reading your slot as scum all game, so Iso'ing egix is a good start. Here are a few posts from 72 I have notes on (sorry no links)..

942
961-962
967
972
1145

Here's one from Mizzy, practically calling it out..

In post 651, Mizzytastic wrote:
If its town fferyllt one of 72 and muh is probably scum.

If it's town 72 I agree one of JDye and Spangled is prob scum.

I retreated to muh out of paranoia and the way he joined the c4 wagon bugging me.

VOTE: fferyllt

Like that?

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:55 am

That would have saved me like 2 hours with my earlier post... Sheesh.

safebet222 · Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:17 am

I thought you might like that.

safebet222 · Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:37 am

Happy B-Day MC... Have a great day!

safebet222 · Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:06 am

In post 1681, safebet222 wrote:
In post 1657, safebet222 wrote:I skimmed FF's iso, Mizzy. I don't quite see where FF was ready to vote Spangled, or where FF particularly pushed for a Spangled elim... She played her scum reads pretty close to her vest. You know, "Welcome to Fferyland."
Nevermind Mizzy, I found it. Post 1100. I suppose I didn't pay much attention to 72 when he was so angry at getting wagoned. I'll have to reread that whole part again.

I reread the section from 1100 on and I am trying to figure out whether the following could be scum theater or not...

In post 1133, fferyllt wrote:
In post 1106, Spangled wrote:
In post 1003, fferyllt wrote:Up past midnight. :/

But, 72 metadive done.

In post 982, fferyllt wrote:
72offsuit

Town
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=84499 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84118 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=84085 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=84399 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83106 (Newbie)

Scum
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=83923 (Newbie)
viewtopic.php?t=82578 (Mini Normal - replaced out early day 2)
The two scum game ISOs were different. One is a Newbie game and the other is a Mini Normal (13 players) which is probably the source of the differences.

In the Newbie scum game there were far fewer text speak type abbreviations compared to here. Sentences were longer, and few abbreviations. And there was much less punch in the word choices. The posts come off less aggressive sounding than his town Newbie games. As he was under pressure his posts got shorter and shorter.

In the Mini Normal 72 replaced out, but was in the game long enough to make > 50 posts. Many of the posts were very long. He did some cursory meta research on a player, something didn't notice in his newbie games. He did detailed reads lists and detailed ISOs. There were lots of quotewalls, and fewer interactive posts. Very few posts that looked like phoneposting.

Town Newbie games vary somewhat. Sometimes he's very playful in RVS phase. Sometimes he steps up into the SE role and explains theory, links the wiki, etc. I think he feels more comfortable phone posting in town games (or his schedule varies over time). He seems to start games with the assumption that nobody is town, and lets players prove themselves, or not. This leads to a lot of false positives.

I didn't notice a lengthy 1v1 like he had with JDye, so I didn't see the same degree of aggravated looking posts as here. He bounces around from scumread to scumread and back. Wagon building looks pragmatic.

So yeah, this looks like Town 72
.
ehhhhh I see what you’re saying, especially on shorter posts under pressure and less phone-posting as scum, but two scum games hardly makes a scum meta, and scum can emulate their townplay; this could be the scum game where 72 Gets Really Good.

And I’ve been duped by scum (well, one scum) emulating their townplay whose town metas are basically ‘be aggressive and illogical’, and I was completely fooled up until they repped out, and even then I didn’t think that they were scum, in fact I held them as a very strong townread the whole game, until wiser heads prevailed and I was convinced by someone else who I townread even more; until nearing the very end. I mean obviously I’m not townreading 72 here, but you see what I’m saying here?

Anyway, I just don’t think this is conclusive.
I see what you're saying but it's not terribly convincing to me.

Town meta is the baseline. Scum meta differentiates. It wasn't nearly conclusive enough for my tastes, but I've accurately read players for whom I had only town meta before.

I also don't like to look at games from too far back in time. Players learn, evolve, and settle into their playstyles. Recent games are better predictors than earlier ones.

To be sure I understand, though. You agree his play here doesn't look a lot like his two scum games, but you think his play here should be within his scum range?

I think there's a good possibility that it is. Anyone else have an opinion?

safebet222 · Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:59 pm

I'll be around in a couple hours.

safebet222 · Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:56 pm

I'm here now... rereading for the umpteenth time in the last 3 days.

safebet222 · Fri Dec 04, 2020 7:53 pm

I'm 3 hours into rereading Mizzy's, Egix's C4's and FF's ISO. I am tired and going to bed. Gonna start with Mizzy first... I'm having a hard time seeing Mizzy as scum...

Day 1 - I see it as unlikely that Mizzy opens by trying to break RVS by attacking her scum partner than turning her read around all between posts 24 and 60.
I also don't see C4 voting Mizzy later in the day as likely scum theater along with posts 128, 136, 331 and 347. Just hard for me to believe.

Day 2 - I don't see why Mizzy keeps pushing the questioning with C4 in post 391 as scum. After a failed kill, wouldn't you just pay attention to the elephant in the room? This continues from posts 405 to 418. I really don't see the scum motivation for Mizzy to continue this line of questioning against her partner and leading up to the vote in post 450 then putting FF at E-2 later in post 651.

Also post 730 "I don't see muh/fferyllt - that would be bussing d1 and d2" Don't see scum!Mizzy saying this after bussing scum!C4 and scum!ff all of D2.

Day 3 - Does scum really try to gamesolve as much as Mizzy tried to to open D3? I also don't see scum! Mizzy being the one to give intent on 72. I must admit D3 was not a very good day for Mizzy overall. Also #1344 was in regards to MC's push for a 72/Mizzy scum team but I think also applies to a FF/C4/Mizzy team.

Day 4 - 1697 more gamesolving... ++Town

Also... overall, I've townread Mizzy all game... it's really hard trying to find where everyone has gone wrong... I'll be around tomorrow.

safebet222 · Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:02 pm

In post 1730, safebet222 wrote:I'm 3 hours into rereading Mizzy's, Egix's C4's and FF's ISO. I am tired and going to bed. Gonna start with Mizzy first... I'm having a hard time seeing Mizzy as scum...

Day 1 - I see it as unlikely that Mizzy opens by trying to break RVS by attacking her scum partner than turning her read around all between posts 24 and 60.
I also don't see C4 voting Mizzy later in the day as likely scum theater along with posts 128, 136, 331 and 347. Just hard for me to believe.

Day 2 - I don't see why Mizzy keeps pushing the questioning with C4 in post 391 as scum. After a failed kill, wouldn't you just pay attention to the elephant in the room? This continues from posts 405 to
410
. I really don't see the scum motivation for Mizzy to continue this line of questioning against her partner and leading up to the vote in post 450 then putting FF at E-2 later in post 651.

Also post 730 "I don't see muh/fferyllt - that would be bussing d1 and d2" Don't see scum!Mizzy saying this after bussing scum!C4 and scum!ff all of D2.

Day 3 - Does scum really try to gamesolve as much as Mizzy tried to to open D3? I also don't see scum! Mizzy being the one to give intent on 72. I must admit D3 was not a very good day for Mizzy overall. Also #1344 was in regards to MC's push for a 72/Mizzy scum team but I think also applies to a FF/C4/Mizzy team.

Day 4 - 1697 more gamesolving... ++Town

Also... overall, I've townread Mizzy all game... it's really hard trying to find where everyone has gone wrong... I'll be around tomorrow.

Fixed a post number in my Day 2 above

safebet222 · Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:28 am

In post 1732, Mizzytastic wrote: VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2.
I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

I'm here... Did you find anything yet Mizzy?

safebet222 · Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:33 am

I'm trying to do my own meta dive on Egix to see how mine differs from FF's. I'm having a hard time telling the difference between his scum games and town games...

safebet222 · Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:37 am

I did look for your games Mizzy... I see you've replaced out pretty much every time. It was hard to really make comparisons.

safebet222 · Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:48 am

@egix... You're D1 reread and conclusion seem pretty inconsistent. If you're leaning Mizzy is 111 distancing or just happenstance if its not bussing? And if it was simply distancing why would they continue referring to it the rest of the day?

safebet222 · Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:11 am

Ok... So what do you make of Mizzy pushing C4/ FF up until the no vote was floated?

safebet222 · Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:08 pm

Okay... here we go on Egix...

Spoiler:

All in all, my best guess is that it is Egix... I just think that, despite his low post style, town!Egix comes up with more conclusions apart from pushing one slot and scum! Egix is content getting to F3 with a singular agenda and nothing else of note.

One last thought for the evening...

In post 1605, 72offsuit wrote:Sad sad game if its a lurking egix win

safebet222 · Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:29 am

Yeah, Egix, I'm not saying this is a slam dunk choice, by any means. And, like I said in before, I'm so bad at this I should probably create a scum read and do the opposite... But you really haven't had ANY other agenda than going after the Cyl/Spangled slot... you are never active in your games, its irrelevant... and Mizzy has been UTR the whole game.. can everyone be this wrong?

safebet222 · Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:32 am

In post 1732, Mizzytastic wrote:Right, computer is working though I'm still sorting stuff out so I'll be in and out. First thoughts

Day 5 Strategy -
scum!Egix would be bold trying to get Safebet to flip on me - he has a hard time winning if we end up crossvoting
, scum!Safebet would be going for the easier option trying to get me to go on Egix after CAT tried to get me away from my paranoia there

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2. I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

@ Mizzy... why wouldn't it be just as likely that scum!Egix tries to convince you that I'm scum?

safebet222 · Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:38 am

In post 1744, Mizzytastic wrote:
When giving WIFOM based reads I tend to default to saying the most base level one. 1) cos wifom is just a part of the game we all know and have to anticipate and 2) cos higher levels of wifom are just less likely and generally come from fancy play syndrome or not anticipating why something is generally bad for scum to do

You lost me here, Mizzy. WTH are levels of WIFOM?

safebet222 · Sun Dec 06, 2020 8:37 am

In post 1744, Mizzytastic wrote: Possible? Yes. Just as likely? I don't think so but also leave it as an exercise for the reader - you are free to disagree

Ok I understand what you mean. But thinking that scum!egix's baseline is to convice me that you're scum when for two days we knew that if we didn't catch scum d4 the game was going to be in your hands is super strange. What makes you think the baseline is what you say?

safebet222 · Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:46 am

Ok... Sorry I misunderstood.

safebet222 · Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:50 am

So... Where are you at now then, Mizzy?

safebet222 · Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:06 pm

Mizzy... it's a game... do your best and if you're right, we'll all celebrate, and if you're wrong, try again. And if you're scum... go to hell

I, for one, won't be blaming you for making a wrong choice, if that's how it turns out. I will be asking myself what didn't I do to convince you I'm town. How do you think I'll feel if I end up voting Egix and you're scum??? Getting duped is a part of the game...

Spoiler:

In short, Mizzy... I'm town... MC thought so, even 72 thought so for a while (and he scumread everyone for the most part). I hope I've done enough to convince you, too. I'm trying my best to solve the game. As for the last part that's bothering you, I don't know what to say... I don't see any good reason in being an ass to Egix and only see interacting with him as a positive. Besides Wisconsin nice, remember.

safebet222 · Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:08 pm

In post 931, safebet222 wrote:
In post 930, Mizzytastic wrote: I'm not certain it's right, that's why I want a discussion. It has the potential to produce a lot of clears, but I dunno whether the average case is good enough. Either way I'm not sure asking if a vote is based on night stuff is the right take.
All I meant was if he had reread the D1 & D2 activity and came up with something different than what he was saying at the end of D2... I wasn't trying to refer to the NK at all.

I wanted to know if 72 had reread the game overnight and found something that cemented his read or if that was a continuation vote.

safebet222 · Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:01 pm

I suppose you'd want to know why it mattered... I was having a hard time with 72 the entire game... I thought that the amount of effort he put into his reads during the night phase could be AI.

safebet222 · Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:23 pm

In post 1761, Mizzytastic wrote:So when ff responded to that by saying she knew it wasn't you didn't find it odd?

You and FF completely misunderstood my question... In fact, you pretty much shut me down. I tried to clarify but the game went off in another direction.

If I was supposed to read something into that statement, I obviously missed it trying to be understood.

safebet222 · Wed Dec 09, 2020 2:38 pm

In post 1764, Mizzytastic wrote:I'm kinda surprised Safebet hasn't already for the level of certainty he seems to portray. I wasn't expecting anything to ask. If you still going to vote me then I'm happy to cross vote now and hope my read is just wrong

I might have if I didn't think you've been coaxing me to vote before Egix voted. I'd prefer that Egix votes first.

safebet222 · Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:33 pm

In post 1767, Mizzytastic wrote:This whole day phase has felt to me like you don't care between me or Egix getting voted, while until maybe the last 24 hours seemingly convinced I'm town. That's what's been bugging me. I can't make a good case, I'm on zero spoons and a lot of it is gut.

Even if I'm right town probably loses with Egix voting me but VOTE: Safebet

Mizzy... This isn't going to end well like this... I've made my case why I'm town. I asked you to let egix vote first. You act like noone has the same insecurities that you do and that I just don't hide them. Please take your vote off of me.

safebet222 · Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:56 pm

Mizzy... Take a look at today from a town!me perspective and ask yourself why its been hard for me to put my vote down...Don't assume that I'm 100% confident in my read.

safebet222 · Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:14 pm

Not that it matters anymore cause Egix will wake up before Mizzy and if he's scum, as I suspect, the game is over.

Mizzy put me in a really hard spot to vote egix... After Egix opened stating he is leaning Mizzy... I basically claimed my intention to vote Egix in post 1730. Mizzy follows with...

In post 1732, Mizzytastic wrote:Right, computer is working though I'm still sorting stuff out so I'll be in and out. First thoughts

Day 5 Strategy - scum!Egix would be bold trying to get Safebet to flip on me - he has a hard time winning if we end up crossvoting,
scum!Safebet would be going for the easier option trying to get me to go on Egix after CAT tried to get me away from my paranoia there

VCA - this leans more badly for Egix IMO. He's been in the 'optimal' scum slot on the wagon the first 3 days. Also D1 both scum preferred muh to AGP, if it's scum!Safebet they were both there d2, aaaand they killed him n2. I wanna go look back and see if he said anything that could have drawn him such ire

I continue claiming I intend to vote egix with post 1739 and post 1741. Mizzy clarified their thought to me in post 1748. I then asked them where they were at and they respond...

In post 1753, Mizzytastic wrote:looking at muh wasn't especially helpful. He's on c4, suspicious of egix d1, you end of d2 but mostly just ... very omgusy. I could believe that he died for his reads in the world where either of you are scum. It leads egix just because it's d1.

I'm pretty sure ff's play around 72 was to do with trying to get him to a final situation where he is likely to get votes. I dunno if Egix votes there d2 if that strategy is going?

I also feel like c4 was trying to line up Egix d2, but it's hard to tell if it was distancing or lining up an elim cos he didn't say much then replaced out, and ff's approach to Egix was clearly different. I tend towards the later just because I was the other person c4 pushed for the interactions with cyl and it felt like the d2 shift was to the easier target.

I feel like the ff metadive on Egix was based on the assumption he's likely to get to a final situation and it creates a whole bunch of WIFOM. But that plays either way, and I feel like it's a pretty safe bet for d3 ff to guess she dies before either of you two. I don't remember any significant interactions between you two other than you both ending up on muh.

I do remember feeling odd about how you encouraged me to vote muh - responding to something I said mid d1 mid d2 and maybe also playing on my paranoia about 72 pocketing me - but I need to go check that second bit, I feel like JDye said it first and you second but I'd have to go check. If I'm right on ff's strategy on 72 it could be a sign of partnership cos 72 probably just dies d2 if you are voting there (and he's not a pr, but scum clearly didn't think he was at the time)

If I vote you and I'm wrong I feel stupid cos between the two of you you look more town at face value. If I vote Egix and i'm wrong I kick myself cos my gut has been saying it's you since the ff flip and I've not had the spoons to make that case.

I want to vote you over Egix, but I'm struggling to vote either of you over my anxiety of being wrong.

If Egix is claims he is leaning Mizzy and Mizzy states that they scumread me for pushing egix, they basically don't give town!me and town!Mizzy any room to coexist. I have to first convince town!Mizzy that I am town before placing my vote on Egix or risk pissing them off and having their vote on me anyhow giving scum!Egix the win.

To top it off, Mizzy starts scum reading me for not voting and for supposedly acting like I don't care who gets voted, and that I am acting like I'm sure about my read but am not voting. But in reality, I'm not voting because Mizzy put me in a spot where I don't want to vote Egix because I think that its the thing that will make them scumread me more, handing scum!egix the win.

But I managed to land us here anyway... so what do I know?

So, Mizzy, I'm sorry if you're town and you don't wake up before Egix... I tried my best to convince you without berating you about the tough spot you put me in to vote my reiterated claimed intention. I felt forced to try to convince you I am town before placing my egix vote. I also felt forced to reconsider the possibility you are scum and interact with egix a bit.

I'm not sure what to do here... I'm feeling kind of defeated.

safebet222 · Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:25 pm

I'm sorry I didn't know how to express the above in coherent sentences before now. Not sure that the above is coherent...

safebet222 · Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:18 am

That doesn't make any sense to me, Mizzy. Like I said, I felt trapped by your paranoia toward me. But, no use fussing over spilt milk. GG everyone.

safebet222 · Thu Dec 10, 2020 3:33 am

In post 1781, 72offsuit wrote:@Safebet, I think you played this last day really well. I think you did all you could. Oh well, cant win em all.

Thanks... I appreciate the compliment.

Mizzytastic wrote:I think I'm gonna stop playing and just mod until my mental health has a significant improvement. I just can't manage a full length game and I have to accept that's OK.

I did have fun playing though, even if I spent a lot of time behind and lost

I'm happy you had fun. It makes me feel better. My mom and brother deal with depression and I think making sound choices is smart. I tried my best to not play into that, Mizzy. Last thing I wanted was to trigger you.

safebet222 · Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:17 am

In post 1786, Mizzytastic wrote:I'm glad you did. I did two, even if this is the second newbie game I've lost for us at f3. My intent is to play again at some point, I just have too many days right now where I can't manage it to a level I would like

I hope you'd try again as soon as you feel able... I think your activity level was more than appropriate and despite what you say, it didn't feel like you were all that lost or behind. And even though you had the unfortunate situation of misvoting in F3... All of us townies have equal blame for not pushing egix beforehand.

In post 1788, Spangled wrote:Thanks for modding, Umlaut! Well-timed VC, great organisation in general, and nice flavour; thank you!

I’m so sorry about all that wrangle, 72 and safebet. I’m also sorry I wasn’t around more, to play this better. Hope to play with you all again sometime!

You were put into a tough spot... No worries. This was fun.