In post 1345, the worst wrote:town!Keyser is kind of a sheep in a wolf's clothes
true
@Irrelphant11 - what does it look like to you?In post 1349, Keyser Söze wrote:I need advice from a neutral party:
Does this look like confirmation bias? Or someone suspiciously chaining misslynches / linking a townie-to-scum?
You should have voted him pages ago. Or me.In post 1373, Eragon wrote:>dunnstral rarely appears in thread
>calls me scum for being detached
>i vote him
>he votes me right away
>???
>huge profit??????
the piggy backing.In post 1385, Eragon wrote:and if you think they're pockety, can you explain which posts and why?
Scum-keyser busses both Volxen and Dunn and sails to easy victory 100 times out of 100.In post 1390, Eragon wrote:you very well could be hard-defending dunn.
In post 1392, Eragon wrote:also, i just remembered still no one has answered,
what was the general read on Dunn at the end of D1
Who else said DUNN-NSG-VOLXEN are unlikely scum team based on all three sat on Sesq/Nauci slot at EoD?In post 428, Flicker wrote:Votecount 1.15
volxen (6)- Reundo 220, Sesq 222, Keyser Söze 224, Toranaga 402, the worst 406, Ausuka 408
Sesq (3)- Dunnstral 117, northsidegal 307, volxen 330
Keyser Söze (1)- Huntress 393
Toranaga (1)- Irrelephant 255
Huntress (1)- Eragon 194
Not voting: N/A
The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).
If true, Dunn’s actually had the best game out of everyoneIn post 1402, Toranaga wrote:In post 385, Dunnstral wrote:tinfoil theory: Eragon is scum and his partner(s) felt the need to welcome him in thread to try to seem like they're not talking in pt
Not a serious theory jsut something to consider I guess
My confirmation bias says it’s a bus post.In post 1412, Toranaga wrote:this lacks nuanceIn post 491, Eragon wrote:Literally the only play is to kill volxen.
If we lynch him and he’s watcher, then someone else takes his place and we get their results N1
If we lynch him and he’s scum, GREAT!
If we don’t lynch him and he’s watcher, and he’s town, he dies tonight and we don’t get results for N1
If we don’t lynch him and he’s scum, we’ll then we lynch him tommorow, which is a day later than we should
Nauci, I was waiting for you to look for scum outside of me. Instead of engaging into a one on one before you fully caught up.In post 1460, Nauci wrote:I haven't caught up on this thread, but re-revewing Keyser's American Presidents posts, I just feel there's amassivecontrast in his POV/attitude/behavior/etc.
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=76627&user_select%5B%5D=25845
In American Presidents, he:
This game, I just feel like I saw him be constantly defensive, hyper aware of how others viewed his slot in a way that agitated him, make fewer posts analyzing others, have a lot of reactions and perspectives that felt unnatural to read, and totally didn't comment on the way Volxen defended about him
- Called out and questioned everything he thought could be conceived as attempts to pocket him, even if in jest
- Spent waaaay more of his posts actively prodding others and sorting
- Had a more carefree attitude even in the posts where he did defend himself
- This one is more biased, but I defended Keyser multiple times in that game because I could clearly see what he was thinking in the times he was accused of being scummy, and felt like I agreed with his reads a ton
- Spent a lot of time just reacting to bits and pieces of the game and writing up reactions to other players' posts in a way that made total sense from the perspective of town trying to figure out the game
repeatedly and unsubtly, throwing him a town read without much of an explanation for day 1. It felt like he tried to shade the players he would find threatening day 1 like Reundo when there was opportunity/momentum to do so, but once it looked futile he flipped 180 (and something about the way he kept calling him teammate felt so awkward, like intentionally trying to create misleading associations?).
I just can't seem to get rid of this gut feel as I read the game. It's hard to explain some of the reasons I get this gut feeling because I feel like I read players on a more psychological/hard to phrase level (without writing the kinds of essays that I do), but I've always been able to just psychologically jump into the perspectives of some town players so seamlessly that they have to be town. This one feels like the opposite; I just struggle to see why Keyser would react so much to every comment on him, while also dodging responding.
Keyser, why did you feel like you had to wait until I cased you to respond to me, when my catch up posts clearly had tons of instances of comments on your posts that you could have replied to/explained/etc.?
VOTE: Keyser Söze
Ok, if I down grade them to null, as they haven’t done anything objectively pro-town:In post 1465, Nauci wrote:I extremely do not understand your case for town Dunnstral. It's pure WIFOM Dunning-Kruger. Unless you can show me that Dunnstral's scum game is amazing, I don't see extreme-WIFOM as a good reason for the read.In post 1210, Keyser Söze wrote:This game is about survival.
And Dunnstral’s supposed scum game isn’t helping him survive.
Scum-Dunnstral gets no benefit out of this or his remaining teammate: even if his partner busses, they’d get no town-cred.
It’s tactical suicide.
I believe scum are in my middle ground reads.
I believe I caught up with everything that was alignment indicative to me Nauci.In post 1461, Nauci wrote:I said I was disappointed with how little you engaged with the content that happened. I thought lots of action had happened with Ausuka and other slots, but your replies were to defend yourself, comment on NSG's joke post instead of her content posts, and a shallow reaction to Dunn's lynchbaity post. Of everything there was to engage with, it was disappointingly shallow.In post 1175, Keyser Söze wrote:No, you said I ignored all the “content” from the last 5 pages.
What alignment indicative posts / scum cases are you referring to?
You can’t just throw that out there and expect me not to react.
I have been fully engaged in this game thank you.
Do you think Toranaga and Dunnstral are the last two mafia goons?
If so, convince me to return back there.
Toranaga has convinced me 1) he is unlikely mafia and 2) he also convinced me I was a blind idiot for being on Dunnstral’s wagon all of today.
I have not been fixed/tunnelled in my reads though (caught in confirm bias)In post 1463, Nauci wrote:You're below-average, but your reads have been on point?In post 1186, Keyser Söze wrote:@Eragon - why is your vote not on me?
You have just listed many (bad) reasons why you strongly think I am scum.
Btw, I never said I was "god like" - I'm a below-average mafiascum player with still lots to learn. However, my reads have been on point so far this game. If Dunnstral and tora flip town, I'll feel even better about my developing game
But you pushed Reundo, my slot (which I know is town, of course), and e, and pushed volxen a little. How do you make that statement with just 2 flips?
WIM =In post 1471, Nauci wrote:WTH is WIM
If you take out your hard scum read of me from your D2 lynchpool, our reads/or PoE aren't too far apart actually.In post 1476, Nauci wrote:There were a few moments I townread TW but that felt like 30 pages ago
it's not out of character for TW to dance on a scum buddy's grave and he took no part in swinging the momentum on that lynch IMO, so there's not much to rule out tw being scum against me yet again except statistical craziness
I may need to go back on my promise.In post 1359, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: Eragon
Probably gonna stay here for the rest of D2.
Dunnstral vs Eragon wagons competing makes most sense in my reads universe. Not going to give any town-scum, scum-scum association theory until we see a flip.
In post 1495, Nauci wrote:Not enough time to rally a keyser wagon
I'll save you time: I'm not scum.In post 1499, Nauci wrote:NO ONE HAMMER DUNN I'M IN THE MIDDLE OF MY KEYSER POST
The only person who knows my true scum and town game replaced out (Kop).In post 1503, Nauci wrote:I like when you post a condescending gaslighty defensive comment at me right before I was about to point out that scum-you does thisIn post 1501, Keyser Söze wrote:In post 1495, Nauci wrote:Not enough time to rally a keyser wagonI'll save you time: I'm not scum.In post 1499, Nauci wrote:NO ONE HAMMER DUNN I'M IN THE MIDDLE OF MY KEYSER POST
You don't know me.
I know you though.
I think this makes things easier
I have allowed you to case me. . But you’re now scraping the barrel talking about emoticons and formatting. You are diseased with confirm bias Nauci.In post 1508, Nauci wrote:So after pages and pages and pages of defending Dunnstral, you're willing to do a total 180 for no reason right after I said I am in the middle of casing you?In post 1497, Keyser Söze wrote:I may need to go back on my promiseIn post 1359, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: Eragon
Probably gonna stay here for the rest of D2.
Dunnstral vs Eragon wagons competing makes most sense in my reads universe. Not going to give any town-scum, scum-scum association theory until we see a flip.
VOTE: Dunnstral
Sorry mate. I needed more tangible town motivation in your ISO to defend you with. In the end, I’ll have to concede and say WIFOM isn’t going to outweigh the surface level scummy actions in your D1/D2 behaviour. I hope to play again with you, but hopefully it’s in a game that engages/excites you.
Let’s end Day 2.
Really?
Let's be real: that was not a thought out and cased flip on Dunnstral. That was a black and white obvious switch to Dunnstral because I'm willing to lynch there instead of you and even said so.
I can't even see a universe where town Keyser makes 1496 here, with the threat to replace out.
Guys, this is caught scum and you know it. VOTE: Keyser Söze if he flips green I'll use whatever non-forum-rule-breaking avatar Keyser chooses for the rest of 2018.
PEdit: Keyser you can fake the things you do as town, like evaluate each players' cases one by one and make nuanced observations, but almost no one can change tone and attitude. That'd be a more convincing defense if I didn't see you as town for a long time and see a completely different personality.
Calling me pathetic and telling me to save my time and NOT case you is pro-town... how?
I’ll take you up on that avatar bet thoughIn post 1510, Nauci wrote:VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
I agree that I shouldn’t have made this post (it’s not pro-town)In post 1501, Keyser Söze wrote:In post 1495, Nauci wrote:Not enough time to rally a keyser wagonI'll save you time: I'm not scum.In post 1499, Nauci wrote:NO ONE HAMMER DUNN I'M IN THE MIDDLE OF MY KEYSER POST
You don't know me.
I know you though.
Yep, I noted 3 great uppercuts from Reundo on Volxen from D1. #pivotalIn post 1513, Nauci wrote:Btw this is one of those posts that put Reundo firmly into never-lynch territoryIn post 387, Reundo wrote:I don't really understand why the volxen wagon died down the way it did. The only town points he got was from northsidegal for being contradictory, and while I can sort of see where northsidegal is coming from it doesn't feel like a particularly strong town-read, and the contradictions run much deeper than mere activity. Looking back on it, post #254 is a lot more petty than I realized. I could see why some of the posts volxen mentioned could be viewed as active lurking, but to not put any more thought into players than "oh, they're active lurking, they're probably scum" is incredibly lazy and narrow-minded. It actually feels like he's afraid of contradicting himself, as if scum-reading someone for doing X means he also has to scum-read everyone who does X, and I'm struggling to see how town can be so close-minded. He gives himself a lot of town points for "having reads and trying to game solve" while completely ignoring that 2.718 made an entire reads list, and the least he could've done was acknowledge that fact and explain why 2.718's reads list was lazy/active-lurking/whatever instead of trying to sweep it under the rug and hope no one notices.
His recent trajectory isn't much better either. 2.718 seemed to be his biggest scum-read, but when northsidegal started town-reading him volxen didn't even bat an eye or seem to care at all really, not even an acknowledgement akin to "well, I guess you have a point on 2.178", and he seemed too eager to hop onto a counter wagon as soon as the opportunity opened up. He also said he was going to update his readslist tomorrow on Friday, and he still hasn't followed up on it. On one hand I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he was busier than he intended, and I ended up posting later than I meant to once as well, but part of me feels he's just not bothering anymore because the pressure's been shifted to Sesq instead.
Sesq isn't a terrible lynch, but the way it built up didn't make much sense either. It seemed mostly based on their play here not lining up with their town meta, which sort of makes sense but unless their play here is similar to their scum game it might just be NAI. A lot of players have talked about their lack of motivation in this game, and it's debatable how much of this is genuine or just an excuse but it's wide-spread enough to where I can see Sesq just not being at their A-game this game. Just looking at this game specifically, I'm struggling to see a definite scum agenda to their play. I'm annoyed by their limited scum-reads and coasting behavior, but at the same time they clearly don't care about the impression they give off and they're not super motivated to start a counter-wagon, even going as far as to town-read volxen. It almost feels like they're playing to get lynched in some aspects, which honestly does make some sense as a scum play-style, but I'm kind of iffy on it.
Volxen is still my preferred lynch today. I'm not too opposed to a sesq lynch but I have a lot more reservations about it compared to volxen. Toranga/Dunn are my weakest nulls right now, so I probably won't cry a river over their lynches either, but volxen makes the most sense to me right now tbh.
Defensiveness is not scummy.In post 1519, Nauci wrote:That was a super minor side note in my overall case. If you want to refute it, you'll have to link me town games where over half of your posts were defensive to the point of manipulation.In post 1511, Keyser Söze wrote: I have allowed you to case me. . But you’re now scraping the barrel talking about emoticons and formatting. You are diseased with confirm bias Nauci.
- "scum-making-town-sounding-posts POV" - those early questions I asked were NAI, both town and scum can quite easily ask those game mechanic questions. No town points, no scum points should be awarded.In post 1510, Nauci wrote:VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
VOTE: Keyser Söze
I’m not confident of Dunn flipping red. You have misunderstood my post.In post 1552, Eragon wrote:Also, the fact that your talking about MY confidence is ???
Keyser went from hard-defending Dunn with nothing but WIFOM read, and then he suddenly switches to
“If Dunn flips town I’m replacing out”
That’s literally staking his part of the game on dunn’s Flip being red.
If that’s not confidence, then I don’t know what is
Reundo town through and through for me.In post 1593, northsidegal wrote:meh, not sure. he was right there on the volxen wagon, but townread dunnstral day 2 (albeit for reasons consistent with reasons for him townreading me). his reaction at the end of the day seems pretty strange to me coming from someone who had a townread on dunn, though.In post 1590, northsidegal wrote:what're the odds reundo is scum?
In post 1591, Keyser Söze wrote:Wellplayed Ausuka x
I ended D2 thinking Eragon was a townie caught in toxic confirm bias and drink on hilarious paranoia. NOT scum chainlinking me with his partner. I had to go deep to get that understanding of our interactions.In post 1596, Toranaga wrote:I personally think it's always either eragon or the worst
When I’m back on my laptop, yes.In post 1604, Eragon wrote:convince me your town and convince me ducky is scum
I promise not to antagonise you anymore mate. I know you’re for real now.In post 1603, Eragon wrote:wow... ok then...
im like 95% confident last scum is in (keyser/NSG)
i could see TW, but i just really dont...
VOTE: Keyser Soze
p-edit: Tora, those posts are hot damn...
Nauci is not top tier town but she’s very safe for today.In post 1609, Toranaga wrote:last scum is actually incredibly hard to figure out and I can see eragon's posts on d2 as not w/w with dunn as well
I really don't know where to go.
are we sure nauci is town?
Unfortunately the mob would lynch me or you before these 3In post 1630, the worst wrote:last scum is obviously good lmao
it's just in {Tora, Rel, Reundo} outside chance of Nauci everyone else is like too high town equity
can't really be bothered crossing names out if this bracket atm but i know I need to
That’s where you’ve messed up.
This is the Worst’s dance.In post 1642, Eragon wrote:In post 1576, the worst wrote:actually I think I dreamed up reasons to townread Dunn
VOTE: Dunnstral
if this greens Eragon tmrw obviously and we have his partner in the fucks who tried to manipulate the wagon : ]i dont really think that these posts feel natural to me with Dunn interactions
Already said scum-Irrelephant has already won this gameIn post 1644, the worst wrote:early vote park on his rvs on Dunn doesn't actually feel partnery at all..switch to Sesq was legit and Rel jumped on the same E issues I had originally
yuck I hope this isn't scumRel or I'm fucked