Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!
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Auro Survivor
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On the flipside, I think a 4-headed hydra can also be easier to read - faking dissonance as scum is easier said than done, and you have the ability to interact with all 4 different heads. I have a feeling you're going by your experience playing alongside my TGW hydra in Lynchpin, is that correct? I think it took quite some effort to stay townread there, and from a very very loose read of the early pages it seems like the hydra is kinda freewheeling here.In post 32, Bambi Jay wrote:What you call a "Policy Lynch" is actually a strategic pre-emptive strike against a (set of) player(s) dealt a strong hand if they make it past today, which hold more power then they should in a game with this many scum.
The "50%" argument applies for any slot in the game, I don't think it should be justified towards settling on a deathtunnel. If both of you are town, you'd make this pretty easy for scum. I'll read up if there's any... actual case made on the slot in later pages.-
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In post 194, ajfefijsleifjsa wrote:
activity is naiIn post 193, Bambi Jay wrote:By not spamming the thread, for one.
Agree with Hobbes here; the amount of low-quality spam is horrifying. Blaming someone else for "90% of the posts" and refusing to sign is also pretty bad. Of the heads I'm most interested in Allomancer, I'd like him specifically to sign his posts at least.In post 196, GuiltyLion wrote:Activity may be NAI but spamming the thread with this worthless unusable garbage is certainly anti town behavior. I want other people to give reads on this situation and both of you to chill out.
On the other hand, I don't feel that hydras go all-out spam this early when they're being pressured and are aware that they'd look scummy for it. Clogging the thread intentionally to prevent town from working isn't something I see this slot doing. Very mild townlean on the slot.
I don't find the analysis in 100 convincing for the slot to warrant scumreads - defensiveness should not be really AI, and it seems pretty clear there's some emotion mixed in with their "logic".
Didn't like this part of the analysis. Bambi's presenting as town regardless of alignment, *sure* - but Bambi was trying to sell the idea that lynching 4heads was okay because 50-50, and it's not unreasonable for 4heads to point out that that argument doesn't hold for other slots.In post 100, GuiltyLion wrote:it's pretty obviously 50/50 from their hypothetical town!POV, this question serves no purpose other than to again discredit. Yes to a townie Bambi is not confirmed town, but obviously she's going to present as town regardless of her alignment. that's not something AI or worth posting about.-
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Scumlean on Egix; he doesn't appear to be *solving* the game. Town!Egix in my experience makes an effort early-on and asks questions.
I do see there was/is a bit of a lull in the game though.-
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In post 231, Clemency wrote:hot take, ashjslfdjghnsporigöasirgunb and bambi are both scum
Looks very opportunistic to me. I see there's a wagon on this player, too?In post 235, Clemency wrote:like seriously i could see them deciding to bus one-another
VOTE: Clemency-
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I wouldn't townread Jay for this reason - do you have no prior experience with the slot? He's a pretty good scum player, and nothing in his play so far is out of his scumrange.In post 210, BuJaber wrote:No I thought about it and no. Bambi is probably town here.
I think scum are a little more self-conscious.-
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Whoops, wrong account. Requoted, mod please delete that.In post 305, Thanos wrote:
Important question. Seems to be that Jay would push 4heads at actual gamestart anyway; given that, reactions to the whole pre-game 1v1 seem worth analyzing. McQueen, do you disagree?In post 294, GuiltyLion wrote:mcqueen is there a clear delineation in your mind of where pregame ended and where the game started?
Unfortunately deleting it will garble quote numbers. Quoting it should fix it anyways.Last edited by Gamma Emerald on Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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DoubtingThomas hasn't posted in this game thread once, and I checked his meta for activity levels.
The only game he did roll scum in as far as I checked, he was a replace-in, got double prodded and was replaced. He's also been replaced in nearly every towngame, due to lack of activity if I'm not wrong. The high replace-rate seems to show that it has nothing to do with alignment.
However, there's some differences with this game - if he's been posting elsewhere the last few days, he was definitely *intentionally* not posting in this one; I think it's likely that although DoubtingThomas is a regular flaker, he probably dislikes rolling scum to the extent of not posting at all when it happens.
I think it's wiser to wait for his replacement to join the game at this moment, but I'm placing a scumlean on the slot.-
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I agree I was excited. However, for your shade to be valid, I'd have to love scum and also dislike playing town to the extent that I'd be excited to roll scum and not town. What makes you believe this is true? A simple check would show you I'm usually "excited" at game-starts as either alignment, and in this case I *asked* to replace in to the slot.In post 307, Egix96 wrote:You seem very happy there. That's... totally not concerning at all.-
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Eh, I had checked his profile post history and he was posting a lot on Feb 11 and today, too. However yeah, seems like there's a reason I didn't find the other flaked games on his profile. Yeah, I'll retract that case.In post 330, Almost50 wrote:@Auro: Why don't you just check the replacements thread. DT has flaked on at least 3 different games already. In other words, he's flaked the site.-
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I'll re-quote your earlier towncase for Jay:In post 334, BuJaber wrote:And to whoever asked, as far as I know (bambi has a lot of alts), I have only modded a game she was in. I haven't played with her before.
What you said re: self-consciousness, lack of stubbornness applies for newbie scum IMO, not so much for experienced scum who knows what they're doing. IIn post 210, BuJaber wrote:I think scum are a little more self-conscious. Bambi continued fighting what should have looked like a losing battle (or at least one that wouldn't be easy to win), they have shown clear hypocrisy by spamming, and they are walking the scumcase backwards by reaching the conclusion first and finding reasons later. When scum do it they invent reasons to justify the fake reads. Bambi seems to be stumbling on things she thinks proves her case.justlost a game against a scumslot (Pinturicchio) that was pushing me with very dumb reasons all game, and I made the mistake of townreading their conviction in said stupidity. In this case I don't see how you view it as a "losing" battle especially with other slots agreeing they'd prolly be up for PL-ing the hydra, and the hydra not really making any effort to improve on their posting - if I were to make a guess, I think more slots would be voting 4heads in a hypothetical gladiate at the moment. As far as "stumbling on things" to prove her case goes, can you walk me through why that's any different from "making up reasons"?
Also, my input that Jay is experienced and also competent scum - how does that change your opinion? I want to hear your updated thoughts before A50 offers his.-
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Are you going to make a proper effort this game, or are you just going to call your posts "an enigma" when I try to work with you again?In post 333, Clemency wrote:wee snaw-
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Jay's initial argument (in my recollection) wasn't that 4heads was a good PL simply due to spam - it was that a 4 headed Hydra was a difficult sort due to their brushing off scumcases citing "dissonance" and who'd have a large voice going into D2 on a town lynch which would make them dangerous.In post 339, BuJaber wrote:It was a losing battle because their main basis fot the lynch was discriminatory. They started with the push and case before the hydra did anything worth scumreading for. Despite what anybody's opinion on the hydra is, they were correct on this point and if it were a case on anyone else other than a hydra (and indeed one not-quite well-liked in terms of posting style of its individual heads) it would not just be rediculous, but Bambi would have gotten hounded for it.
While I do not agree with the reasoning, it's not a ridiculous premise. Jay clearly thought he'd win this battle when he entered it, and also through the exchange.
You're basically describing conviction here - how I see it, it's equally as easy for scum!Jay to decide on deathtunneling the slot, and carrying that conviction through the day. It's dangerous to townread conviction, especially in Jay's case. If you find their posts "genuine from a townie train of thought" I'm taking it as a gut read.In post 339, BuJaber wrote:The stumbling on things vs fake reasons has to do with timing. The fake reasons come before or accompanying the vote/case/push. What we have here in this game is Bambi reacting to hydra posts and adding reasons to a case that started out with no reason apart from it's a 4-headed hydra therefore they will talk too much. They also seemed to reread certain posts with the same viewpoint of this needs to be lynched. This latter point is much harder to distinguish from scum fake reasoning and is more subjective but on this I just found their posts to be genuine conclusions of a townie train of thought, rather than someone looking for things that sound right to support their fake read.
Also, note that this is multiball - scum on either faction still want to hunt and lynch the other.-
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Why, an I over-explaining my stances?In post 341, rosterfoster wrote:Prodging - I'll post more tonight. I was getting some bad feels off Auro though.
Can you describe what was (is) giving you bad feels off me?-
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In post 347, brassherald wrote:Also, bujaber, buddy. Walls suck. Can you split these into smaller posts so I can trick myself into reading all of it?
Nah, I think walls rock, and I'm gonna continueIn post 348, brassherald wrote:Auro, too. Let's pretend there is a character limit for everyone!
If you have problems with any specific points of my walls, feel free to debate.
If you feel I'm empty-posting and clogging the thread, feel free to point it out.-
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C'mon, just because I >>randed scum in the past...In post 353, Egix96 wrote:I just assumed that you enjoyed being scum more than being town, based on our history... not that I would put all that much stock into that anyway.
Wonky assumption.
Also, the opposite actually, I'd probably be a bit miffed to roll scum *yet again*, to be honest, so there's that.-
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The only "read" you mentioned in the whole post is a nullread on me. Why specifically me, especially if I'm null? Do you have other any other reads, apart from Jay?In post 360, ajfefijsleifjsa wrote:i idnivivudally feel null about auro rn-
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I think it's a marginal increase in effort to read walls. If you really can't gel with that and would find it hard to work with, I'll be more conscious of walling - I'd argue that walling is fine but I don't think that helps in solving.In post 371, brassherald wrote:
Back in the day, people also died from polio because there was no vaccine.In post 360, ajfefijsleifjsa wrote:lol ive heard that back in tha'day you were expected to post walls-
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Buj, appears that you don't have a vote in play. Why is that?-
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Vedith's just trolling, like he has throughout this phase.
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There's a wagon on Clem -- any reason you wouldn't want to join that? If there's no reason to townread his slot, it's a fine vote, no?In post 375, BuJaber wrote:Because I don't know who to vote for yet.-
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Bambi is claimed Mafia; we're lynching him at some point anyway, so I think it's useful to hunt for wolves today?
Hydra is a townlean and I'm disinterested in a lynch there.
VOTE: BrassHerald-
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In post 429, Bambi Jay wrote:It's not a slip at all. I'm claiming Mafia so the seer doesn't waste time on me.-
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Hmm I still think Brass is the off-wagon scum but McQueen is the probable on-wagon scum, I think this is a better lynch.
VOTE: McQueen-
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McQueen:
I think your slot more likely flips town; also have Vedith/BuJ as townleans. Jay is claimed Maf so PoE leaves McQueen.In post 438, Gamma Emerald wrote:Clemency (7): mcqueen,GuiltyLion,Auro, "Antihero", Vedith, BuJaber, Bambi Jay
Also McQueen's content is meh, borderline scummy.
Also GuiltyLion had McQueen as a scumread I think.
BrassHerald:
Hates playing scum, and his play so far is devoid of scumhunting.-
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I can buy the game isn't fun for you, but I bet it's because you rolled scumIn post 498, brassherald wrote:This shitty game isn't even fun because you all skipped the RVS stage. Legitimately, expect me to meet your anti-fun attitudes with this much venom until I die because fuck you all for making this game miserable
"Skipping RVS" is one of the worst reasons for behaving like all fun is sucked out of the game; and is a poor defense to an accusation that Brass isn't reading the thread.
*However* I'm pretty sure scum would've kept track of Jay's claim, so I'm not so sure on this right now.
If RosterFoster continues to lurk, lynch it.-
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@A50: Your math is correct; however, you're also assuming wolves would NK randomly. This won't happen since we already have a Mafia claim (Jay) which is a definite non-NK, which skews the numbers; also I'm the probable NK anyway because I'm virtually unlynchable at this point. Do you still think No Lynch is bad?-
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In post 536, rosterfoster wrote:Not many posts, but the maths in 519 is legit. ThoughI think we should be trying to lynch scum though-
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- Why is it unethical to question replacements? Especially if it's patterned - I'll use whatever tools I have at my disposal to find scum. New evidence made me retract it.
- Where were you when the Clem lynch happened, and why was it a bad lynch? One major force on the wagon is confirmed town (GuiltyLion), and he had his vote there *before* I did and was pushing there before I replaced in. How is BuJaber's vote far better than mine, when it was a sheep vote - sheeping *me*?!
- Why would WW claim Mafia, virtually askingto be lynched? The only potential benefit is to delay a lynch on themselves, but I don't see how that balances the cost of dying anyway.
- BrassHerald's AtE being genuine - do you think it's AI? If so, what's your read? If not, why mention this at all?
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Sorry, no, I meant to ask if you still thought a NL was *good*. My arguments were against a No Lynch.In post 543, Almost50 wrote:Did I say No Lynch was bad???-
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@A50, my primary argument against a no-lynch is that the NK is not going to be random, but I'll craft a more detailed rebuttal later.-
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No, the opposite. I think WWs *won't* shoot Bambi - why would they? From their perspective, his lynch is guaranteed at some point anyway unless we follow a "lynch wolves first" policy. I think I'm more likely to be NK'd than most other slots here, and if you're town you should probably share that fear too. So the chances of each person being NK'd aren't equal - they're weighted, which should factor into your statistics.-
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Whether Bambi is fakeclaiming as WW/VT or not is screwing with my head and any thought processes I have right now. >.>-
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Please don't hammer NL yet - I'm still against it, and have more reasons, I'll post shortly.-
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@A50 correct me if I'm wrong.
A simplification of your idea is that we enter the same gamestate as today with one less Mafia or Villa - with a 3/8 chance of the former and 5/8 latter. While you say the objective is to regain a villa majority, I don't think that goal is particularly fruitful - in this context, it's just us vs Mafia and I think it's better focusing *only* on Wolves now. A villa majority won't mean much as long as Wolves have their NK, and a 3/8 chance + a guaranteed non-WW lynch frankly doesn't seem worth it. The increased (Villa+Mafia) numbers are good and focusing otherwise only makes it easier for Wolves, who are more dangerous.
Plus, Bambi being okay with the lynch means we're not going to hit Mafia. We're not going to hit the seer either because we'd get a claim otherwise - that gives us a 1/3 chance of hitting WW today.
If I haven't articulated this properly, please do tell me.-
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And now, the case against McQueen:
- PoE from the D1 wagon: {mcqueen, GuiltyLion, Auro, "Antihero", Vedith, BuJaber, Bambi Jay}
GuiltyLion flipped town. I know myself to be town. Strong TR on BuJaber (which I'll confirm after a meta-check). Weak TRs on the hydra and Vedith. Jay is claimed Mafia. Leaves McQueen.
- Activity levels: Look at how much he's posted here, then go to his profile posts page and note the differences in activity levels WRT other games. He's actively avoiding this thread - scummy for a few reasons.
- Lack of scumhunting: Even in the content he *has* posted, there's zero scumhunting, it's useless content.
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A no-lynch only favors wolves! A NL means one less Mafia/Villa; there's no point entering the same gamestate with one less Maf/Villa.-
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Let's put aside highschool math.
Situation A: 5 villa, 2 Mafia, 2 Werewolves.
Situation B: 5 villa, 3 Mafia, 1 Werewolf.
Both situations have Villa majority. Do you think they're equal?-
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It's worth taking the 1/3 chance of hitting WW.
Let's talk reads.
Rebut my case on McQueen.-
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Umm, the best NK candidates are those who are townread, and are on the right track. You personally might do that but scum almost always just kill the person most likely to go after them. There's another reason I think why GL was NK'd (which leads me to suspect another player as wolf but I'll case that after McQueen).
Anyway, that's the weakest of my reasons and just supporting my main case. Do you agree with the bulk of my numbered case?-
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GuiltyLion was NK'd because of a weighted combination of these reasons:
1. He was one of the most competent players on the playerlist
2. Pretty townread; or if not was in the process of it, as he was actively solving the game
3. Had generally correct reads.
4. (Will list this next game day)
It's probable in this case that (1) and (2) hold a lot more weight which is why it's not a *main* reason I'm pushing McQueen.-
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That would apply if people were > average townread; in this game there are a LOT of scummy slots. For scum it's worth killing a competent strong voice.-
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Besides, if you're agreeing with my case on McQueen, vote there please.-
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He's at L-1 I think and I don't want a quickhammer there; I'll unvote for now.
I'm up for posting reads lists in the A50-proposed fashion. If everyone agrees to do that, I'll start.-
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Town
{Vedith}
{Hydra, BuJaber}
{Bambi, BrassHerald}
{A50, Egix}
{RosterFoster}
{McQueen}
Scum-
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The rationale is for seer to effectively crumb results without giving away who the seer is, in case seer is NK'd.-
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Eh, changed my mind again actually, screw it.
VOTE: McQueen-
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@A50: No, I was going by 2/6 on the presumption that Bambi Jay wouldn't allow a lynch on Mafia.-
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This is what I'm referring to re: GL; Again, not a primary reason, it's just consistent with the case.In post 385, GuiltyLion wrote:
this was a good vote btw and makes me more slightly more inclined to townread the hydraIn post 319, ajfefijsleifjsa wrote:
gohs dang this post is worthlesssIn post 284, mcqueen wrote:controversial opinion time: the game is dead because most of you tried to replace RVS with pre-game antics, which isn't reliable and shouldn't be the basis for reads
VOTE: mcqueen-
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Obviously I don't want to hit town, my argument is that sacrificing an opportunity to wolf-lynch hurts both town and mafia - and there's a 4/7 chance they NK town anyway.In post 602, Almost50 wrote:And your logic is flawed because you know the Mafia have an advantage if numbers are equal, so you really don't care if you hit town here.-
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Also I'll point out that No Lynch does favor Maf more than it favors town, because in ~66% of cases it's a villa kill on a NL.In post 600, Almost50 wrote:Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.-
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I don't want just a "no mislynch", Almost50 - I want a wolf lynch specifically, else I would've wagoned Bambi Jay.
If we lynch a wolf we help Mafia, but *also* ourselves, so it's fine.
"Bambi won't allow a lynch on Mafia today" is an assumption I used to get to the 33% WW-hit number, I don't care for other days.
Also Bambi's associations also give us a good starting point for who isn't Mafia.-
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I mean after Mafia-claiming, if you get a buddy lynched today with both wolves still alive, I can't see that as a viable strategy. You're competent as scum, so I'm pretty sure you wouldn't do this.In post 613, Bambi Jay wrote:*thinking Bambi wouldn't vote her own teammate*
Very Idealist world there, Auro.-
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Also if McQueen was Jay's teammate, Jay would've flat-refused to vote there and would've tried to get us on the Hydra wagon.-
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Wolves having the NK make them dangerous. They can whittle down Mafia but the converse won't happen; the only way to kill Wolves is through lynches. That means town has to work with Mafia to eliminate the greater threat; I'm not saying ignore Mafia-hunting totally, but as long as we have the tool of lynches we should use them to find wolves primarily. As a thought experiment, imagine if all Mafia were eliminated - we'd be left with mountainous 5-2 Town/Wolf which is pretty terrible.-
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@BuJ, Brass: Any comment on the ongoing debate? If it looks like everyone's not seeing what I am, I'll listen and back down for a bit.-
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- Posts: 11076
- Joined: October 9, 2018
- Location: India
Also not able to reconcile this with the attitude you portray in your recent posts, with McQueen at L-1.In post 519, Almost50 wrote:so I'm gonna shut up and play along with whatever you guys decide
A 1/3 chance of hitting a Wolf, versus a ~2/3 chance of a guaranteed no-wolf-hit and Villa kill.Almost50 wrote: I want that too, but the risk/gain ratio is too high for me to take. If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them. But we don't, so we can't risk itat this game status.
The "risk" seems pretty palatable to me, also especially from a personal PoV because of strength of townreads and my confidence in the case.
We'll have to lynch wolves at some point - with more mafia alive seems reasonable because of the NKs.
Also, we have one claimed Mafia (Bambi) and some other slots which have high Maf equity, so it doesn't bother me.-
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Auro Survivor
- Survivor
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- Posts: 11076
- Joined: October 9, 2018
- Location: India
In post 620, Almost50 wrote:If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them.
So you're arguing that a Wolf lynch is good for town, and also beneficial to Mafia greatly and also that you'd lynch a WW if you knew one...In post 611, Almost50 wrote:If the lynch is on WW though (which is good for Town) the remaining Wold is forced to hunt for the Seer, because if the catch him the WW are eliminated. This in turn helps Mafia greatly and puts them in pole position.