Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)
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Detective Pikachu Mafia Scum
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Inferno what do you think? Is there a chance you are an evil twin? Or that I am your evil twin? Or that you are a Ditto only pretending to be a pikachu? Or that I am a ditto only pretending to be a pikachu? Or that we're both dittos pretending to be pikachus? How do you respond to bob's questioning of your towniness as a pikachu-avatar having account?-
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Tomorrow I will read. I'd like everyone soon to post three scumreads and the lynch order they would have for those scumreads. Why would also help.
Definitely a lot of inertia in this game but we're going to break that. I believe in us townies. I believe we can be the very best, like no one ever was.-
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Okay making some progress. I was going to try going through the thread chronologically but got a bit frustrated a few pages in with how many different people were pinging me so I think I'm switching to isos for the moment.
I don't see Exilon in any of the scum lists so far. Who currently opposes Exilon being included in the townblock?-
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Spoiler:
I don't think I'm settling on a read for urap this rl day, but I don't think he's today's lynch rn
I don't like 42 but 75 seemed slightly townie
I'm not really in love with the reads lists in 343 and 418 and I need to decide if the progression to the list in 855 are due to anything other than his two previously list scureads flipping town.
Need to reread what moved Exilon from leanscum to leantown-
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I have the post I was working on when I did chronological but I don't know how much I'm committing to those early reads but I guess I'll post it here
I'm slightly worried that I will end up shading slots I later end up townreading but hey, I'm IC so I guess I don't need to be concerned with consistency
Spoiler:-
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Spoiler:
cby/HRG is an interesting slot that I also don't think is today's lynch but I'm not 100% townblocking quite yet, although I feel like so far these are the reads and impressions that most clearly mirror my own which is slightly reassuring
cby's Exi vote in 24 and 27 feels a bit meh to me, I don't really like that push and is one of the main reasons I'm not townblocking this quite yet, but actually 137 --> 202 is actually a pretty astute criticism of Exi and is probably the strongest argument against an Exi townblock I've seen going through the game so far (that some of the walls go in the route of IIoA/inconclusion and seem paired with pushes that are confusing) even though I don't think this quite makes Exi scum, I feel like the reasoning for the push here is a bit better
Literally no idea what to do with the replace out so ignoring that
not sure why HRG thinks 89 is a town post but URAP and Exi town as first impressions of the thread seems relatively reasonable to me
Main question I have with 700 is why Ausuka is a high town read
Trying to understand why RuiRui got the vote in 754 and that's probably the second main thing that has me second guessing a townblock on this slot
not entirely sure I understand why it took 200 posts from 964 to 1115 to vote skitter but that might be a temperamental thing?
anyway I think I like enough here that I'm okay with this slot going later even if I'm not locking it as town yet-
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pedit: sure
Spoiler: skitter
Not liking skitter for town so far
First the main thing is a structural shift, from doing multiquotes in the early game to more doing pithy posts and then getting into 1v1 walls with exilon. Feels like she switched from presenting analysis to playing the room.
There's also a few odd repetitions -- "inferno may be town" --> "inferno is town" without a lot of development on either read as though she forgot she already said inferno town
she also repeats she's a she but doesn't call exilon out on not reading her posts immediately, even though she does come to scumread him
I don't like the 'iioa' charge in the long multi part response to 1043 and 1160 feels weird after the massive wall post in tone
even the rvs posts with the backpedal on ausuka bother me
that being said I don't hate all her reads, but this slot is maybe below garmr for me, but I'm not sure yet. I've kinda been nudging this read for a few days in my mind and I kinda don't want to go hard on skitter without being reasonably sure which I'm not sure I am, but this is toward the bottom of my list rn-
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Spoiler: Egix
There is one post that strikes me as slightly townie but there are a few red flags specifically irt to a red skitter flip
37 is bad for skitter associatives
165 reads slightly fake just cause I don't get the impression you actually read the iso
I'd like to know the meta reasons mentioned in 176
when did you ever say inferno was town? I feel like I missed something in 603
1063 has a slightly townie vibe tho to me tbh
I am tempted to put this in my bottom half but maybe slightly above ausuka/garmr/skitter, the slot certainly isn't oozing towniness and there's a few concerns but I think this is not today's lynch-
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Spoiler: Inferno
Inferno is toward the middle for me
The early iso is kinda scummy, not lockscum scummy but 35 and 36 are not townie, and 79 doesn't immediately feel like a townie post
I feel like early game scumreads on this slot were above average to come from town
88 and 177 though are very slightly townie. the slot improving over time doesn't always make the slot town
probably don't want this for today's lynch tho-
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that I think I might have been voting inferno within the first 100 posts so I don't think people voting that slot, if inferno is town, are scummy for doing soIn post 1351, u r a person 2 wrote:
What does this line mean?In post 1349, Detective Pikachu wrote:I feel like early game scumreads on this slot were above average to come from town
it's helpful for me to get a grip on the game by thinking through when people are scummy since sorting scummy pushes from townie pushes can help in the long run
idk tho just a note for when I do go back and reread at some point if I do-
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Can you point to an example where skitter scumreads someone for an excess of iioa as town?In post 1352, u r a person 2 wrote:
I agreed with her that his analysis was heavy on the iioa, so i don't think that's wrong. What makes it not a townie case? I think that entire post and case is well within both of skitters ranges (town and scum)In post 1350, Detective Pikachu wrote:I don't think 1157 not striking me as a townie case on exilon is a personality trait-
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Well I'm not at all in love with my initial solve but it's something like this
Exilon
Sasha
HRG
urap / inferno
Egix
bob
Garmr
Ausuka
Skitter
I have basically 0 confidence right now that I don't have scum in the top 3 or that I have more than 2 scum in the bottom 3, that's just kinda the reverse order I think I'd lynch in at this moment
it's somewhere to start anyway-
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In post 650, tris wrote:
this far in the day there could be 2+ scum on the lynch wagon and yet the people on the wagon don't seem that scummy to me, which makes me wonder whether there's an issue with my reads. I do think ausuka is probably the scummiest from the ruirui wagonIn post 851, tris wrote:
I need to review why LUV was actually on sasha... hmm
It makes me very nervous having bob/ausuka/garmr as the three pushing sasha at start of day today. That being said I don't think bob/aususuka/garmr is all three scum, I'd say that's unlikely, but I feel like there is easily one scum in the threeIn post 1150, tris wrote:-
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cause it was day 1 lol, a lot of scum are like, "I don't wanna really be noticed for doing anything" day 1, including hammeringIn post 1359, bob3141 wrote:Finally is sach was town and both urp2 and ausuka are town. Then I can't imagine why mafia simply didn't hammer sach.
Since they would have ended up on the rui lynch anyway
the way sasha treated the hammer is one of the best reasons to townread him imo (unless I'm hilariously wrong)-
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who wants to play "is this a townslip?"In post 1362, u r a person 2 wrote:that I'm voting here day 1
does scum forget that we're on day 2? lol-
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Yeah I still haven't really firmly decided on a vote and some of my townleans are kinda not very active
Maybe it is a playstyle thing but I still struggle with posts like 1424... you argue other people give IIOA but I look at a post like that and I'm kinda not sure why you're not voting Ausuka, and there's not a clear sense of whether you think Garmr is scum for making a post you disagree with a lot of. Like when you accuse Exilon of posting a lot but not really going anywhere with it, posts like 1424 feel very much like that to me-
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Ok well let's not lynch Garmr or bob today. Garmr's play has kinda bothered me but not so much that I can be sure it wasn't from being a PR.
Am I failing as IC if I say I want today's lynch to be between skitter, ausuka, and egix? Statistically even if my reads are awful there should be one scum in there right?
I guess I'm still just feeling pretty low confidence on my reads overall and I don't want to push the town in a bad direction just because I haven't processed all the evidence well enough yet-
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really depends on the number of deathsIn post 1448, skitter30 wrote:if you get shot could that interfere with the result on inferno?-
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if he's weak and he's the only death that implies there is doubt on the result:In post 1452, skitter30 wrote:
if he's the only death what does that imply?In post 1450, Detective Pikachu wrote:
really depends on the number of deathsIn post 1448, skitter30 wrote:if you get shot could that interfere with the result on inferno?
a) chance scum killed him to prevent further results (the death is not scum indicative)
b) chance scum shot somewhere else and there was a protective action (the death is scum indicative and our doubt is incorrect)
given my slot is still alive, scum are obviously worried about a town doctor. but they might gamble on killing me tonight, in which case if I live we risk having to out the doctor tomorrow to understand the validity of garmr's death. this is something we probably don't want to discuss today but may have to discuss tomorrow.obviously no protective claims today
I don't think scum no kill over killing garmr
also c) chance garmr is scum and is trying to control lynch pool, although at the moment I don't know why he'd do that when I wasn't saying I was going to lead a lynch on bob today so his play would be kinda ???, would have to be a desire to set things up for the next dayphase or drop a large wave of wifom on the game as a scum strategy. idk I'll have to think of whether garmr would make a play like that when it opens him up to the risk of being rolecopped if he doesn't know town power structure-
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is it mechanically correct for me to ask that no protectives be on me tonight? I do think IC death + weak death --> guilty is better than IC alive + weak death + lots of wifom on weak result
I'm not sure this is correct but the thought occurs to me that theoretically the protective should be on garmr?-
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Both the weak modifier and the hider role are considered normal on ms.
It's basically an investigative role that is meant to prevent a full mechanical solve by ensuring that the investigative cannot guilty the entire scum team.
But scum hider/scum visitor can also claim weak hider if they are expecting a tracker/watcher.-
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The worst claimed weak hider as a scum goon last year I think. It didn't work well for him but it's not an unheard of scum fakeclaimIn post 1473, skitter30 wrote:
i don't think this is a thing reallyIn post 1470, Detective Pikachu wrote:But scum hider/scum visitor can also claim weak hider if they are expecting a tracker/watcher.-
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Strong scum players might claim weak hider to explain why they are still alive near endgame. I think claiming it on day 2 for no reason would be kinda ???? but there's always wifom you can spin about it later (roleblocker etc.)
I don't want to lynch Garmr today but I'm not sure I totally buy someone giving almost no crumbs that they were going to hide behind someone.
For example, this is the type of crumb I would expect from a weak hider going into night:
"Stop hiding" he says to the player he plans to hide behindIn post 1992, Game of Throws wrote:
Stop hiding behind this notion that people need to explain their scumreads more than they have - everybody has gone in depth on scumreads on the wagons in question. Instead of asking for people to take a step back, is there anything you can point to that makes the wagons bad to you? Who would you rather lynch? And yes you really need to have an answer for that question this far into the gameIn post 1868, Reasonably Clever wrote:I also fundamentally disagree with the idea that the onus lies on everyone else to explain why they're townreading any particular slot, in the absence of anything resembling a smoking gun for any given slot. Most of the game is town. The onus is on the people who want a lynch to go through to provide compelling arguments for why that lynch is the best, NOT encourage town apathy/laziness by suggesting that "oh hey, you might as well just jump on this wagon because it's D1 and you don't have a defensible reason to townread anyone".
Saying you just plan to hide behind someone you think is town, when you have no way of knowing they're town, is pretty incorrect play and I see no comparable crumb for hiding behind bob-
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To be clear, I'm not saying Garmr has become much scummier in my book given I already had him toward the bottom of my PoE, I'm saying if he's town I think he played the end of day 1 incorrectly by not crumbing his target. For that reason I am not comfortable moving him a lot higher in my townblock, and if he is still alive tomorrow you will want to discuss when it is correct to lynch him.-
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If we mislynch today and he is still alive tomorrow, it is very likely it is mechanically correct to lynch him so we might not have another attempt for him. You want to get as large of a mechanical townblock as possible going into lylo.In post 1484, u r a person 2 wrote:I see no reason not to believe the claim. If he doesn't hit scum with inferno tomorrow, we can direct his next attempt-
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Like right now I need to think of a scenario where:
-we mislynch today (statistically likely)
-scum kill me (depends on their read of the setup)
-garmr is alive tomorrow (depends on the validity of his claim, inferno, and the scum power structure)
if all three of these take place, then it is mechanically correct to lynch garmr tomorrow -- that's a lot of conditions, and any of the three not being true means it might not be correct to lynch garmr tomorrow. but I don't want the assumption to be that if garmr is alive tomorrow the focus should be on his target, because I think instead the question should be whether he should be lynched
I just want to make my thoughts there clear before I (fairly likely) die tonight-
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In post 1490, Detective Pikachu wrote:Like right now I need to think of a scenario where:
-we mislynch today (statistically likely)
-scum kill me (depends on their read of the setup)
-garmr is alive tomorrow (depends on the validity of his claim, inferno, and the scum power structure)
if all three of these take place, then it is mechanically correct to lynch garmr tomorrow -- that's a lot of conditions, and any of the three not being true means it might not be correct to lynch garmr tomorrow. but I don't want the assumption to be that if garmr is alive tomorrow the focus should be on his target, because I think instead the question should be whether he should be lynched
I just want to make my thoughts there clear before I (fairly likely) die tonight
If all three of those conditions are met, then tomorrow is the day before lylo. That means we need to play around a scenario where garmr is alive going into lylo, and all of his results are still unconfirmed.In post 1492, skitter30 wrote:can yo eli5 why it's correct to lynch garmr tomorrow under those conditions?
Garmr being flipped weak hider transforms bob into an IC and means inferno is above average likelihood to be town, and this means going into lylo scum would have to either shoot bob as a new IC or shoot inferno as a near-IC. This means we are forcing scum to kill the mechanical townblock rather than players for reads, and this increases the likelihood of hitting scum in lylo.
This is much better than having Garmr alive in lylo and having a lot of doubt about potentially three results just because people think he will die from a guilty.
idk don't want to go too much into here because there's a lot of conditions that have to be fulfilled, but the bottom line is that garmr is still kinda scummy and I don't want him being kept alive going into lylo just based on the merit of his claim-
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Yes, that's one of the reasons I'm sorta turning myself into circles about Garmr's claim. If he really is town weak hider, then scum likely have something to counter him, and Garmr is strong enough of a player that I would think town him would realize that scum are likely to have a way to respond to his role, thus making a kinda random claim even more ???
But Garmr is also not very much like the worst. While this is the type of claim I could see coming from a player like the worst, I'm less confident that Garmr has the disposition that would lead him to fakeclaim this on day 2 in this manner. But it's also not a claim that is likely to bait a night kill, so as a town fakeclaim it's also ???
Basically Garmr's play right now doesn't totally make sense to me from any alignment's point of view, although maybe if he's scum he didn't think I would argue it's correct to lynch him on day 3?
A claim made under dubious circumstances and where there aren't town behaviors I would expect (crumbing etc.) make me very skeptical here, since his play only makes sense from a town POV where he is *very confident* in his bob townread and also assuming scum have no roleblocker which is a ??? assumption to make.
But I wasn't saying to lynch him before and I don't want to lynch him today just because his claim seems ??? to me.-
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You claimed MD on skitter and skitter had visited relly and relly had confirmation skitter visited him because she was loud?
I don't get that at all, wasn't skitter the night kill? There's no possible way there could be no movement on a motion detector result so your claim was super absurd?
It does reinforce my sense that as scum you might not actually think through your fakeclaims all the way
are there examples of you claiming in a ??? manner as town?-
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Hi Gamma! I am revealed innocent child. Garmr recently claimed to have a weak-inno on bob, but his claim is kinda sketch (imo). Sashaddin has claimed VT. I believe that is all claimed mech actions. ChannelDelibird and RuiRui are both flipped VTs.
I'm currently suggesting Ausuka, Skitter, and Egix as three potential lynches today, so if you don't want to read the whole game, you could iso those three and see if any of them strike you as scummy. If none of them strike you as scummy that would also be informative!
Thanks for replacing, especially since we don't have a ton of time left in this dayphase! We currently only have about ~2 days on deadline
@Triscould you update the deadline after the freeze today?-
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