TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime! | Endgame

[hitogoroshi]

I've already lost interest in this discussion about UT destroying anime

Why don't we all just vote Jingle instead?

no

VOTE: Bitmap

this is a good vote. The whole point of RVS is that chaos reigns. Even though I actually don't like ofrhz 23 either I like an unsolicited hard no about dumb rvs stuff even less
VOTE: Bitmap

Can we get back to the important stuff

Anyone want to take a minute to just acknowledge how good this playerlist is

I mean yeah although it would be nice if everyone else could show up

my dude it's been like two hours. just play a video game or something. it is really fine to just chill the fuck out for two seconds and wait. 103/105 are good posts tho

[hitogoroshi]

oh my post preview gave different post numbers than the final posts had (because y'all are too spammy I guess) for 103/105 read 104/106

Okay

Do you still struggle to effort as scum?

Although realistically I think I may just try to get a read on mastina and then sheep her on you

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: jingle

Not entirely rvs

Why?

Okay never mind the bitmap thing, this is the worst post so far. Going from here

I've already lost interest in this discussion about UT destroying anime

Why don't we all just vote Jingle instead?

to adding

headwind

on a Jingle voter is skeevin me out a fair bit.

UNVOTE: bitmap
VOTE: ofrhz

jj and menal are both pretty likely town

[hitogoroshi]

My vote on Jingle was rvs in case that wasn't clear

Your vote is still on Jingle and this very isn't the defense you think it is

Why are jjh and I p likely town @hito?

Commiserating about how long term effort tell probably catches you as scum

Also what does “adding headwind” mean?

as in, pushing back against the sails of a Jingle voter, instead of hyping you up and pretending they totally agree with your secret reasons in the interests of RVS energy. I didn't like Bitmap's post because I don't like people trying to shut down half-baked RVS ideas, but I liked orfhz's much less because it's much worse when you shut down your

own

half-baked RVS idea.

[hitogoroshi]

Apparently he thinks hito's tone is all wrong.

Correction: Not blatantly scum but reasonably confident.

Now he's yelling me on discord for making him look bad.

What's with the double diminutive here? You're instantly post-scripting your vote with "oh, but it's not my read at all! I have no reads! this is RC" and "oh but RC isn't so sure either!". Like look me in the eyes when we make love man. what's the point of immediately signposting your escape routes off my wagon when the whole point is to get enough votes piled on me to be interesting. Do you, bitmap, find me to be the most suspicious player?

Days of Ruin was pretty good on the smaller maps - the infantry/light craft game was a lot more interesting - but it did a bad job scaling up because making the RPS elements so strong makes a lot of annoying grindy deadlock.

103/105 are good posts tho

okay cool ur trolling VOTE: hito

Like I said in literately the following post I had different post numbers in post preview than there were when I submitted. 103/105 are random posts that are whatever, I was referring to 104/106. 104 is good because daring people to try hard and implying you will reward with townreads is a common townie tack, 106 just felt natural. So the point I was making was that I was annoyed that Menal was choking out the thread a bit, but less mad than like Jingle shitposting because Menal did end up townspewing some.

I had a fun idea to read Bitmap where I was gonna accuse him of voting me as a way to avoid engaging with Jingle's vote, implying that it was all just a smokescreen because Bitmap was intimidated by Jingle. Which would have been a pretty specious argument but I feel like a really telling reaction because scum-Bitmap would focus on using it to attack me while town-Bitmap would be more mad about the tremendous insult I inflicted upon his honor saying that Jingle had him on the ropes. In the end I decided the good read I would get would not be worth the commotion but we can agree that would have been funny as hell right

[hitogoroshi]

Easy win: don't fucking lynch one of the best damn players in the game who is one of your key power roles.

What exactly do you mean here, no one is voting you but this seems like you are talking about yourself

I don't like how you compliment those posts as if it was an afterthought.
I was playing stardew valley with a friend and while she was doing something I opened the thread saw a post and honestly I feel like you would have been blatantly town if you were town.
Maybe we need to chat because I remember coming around to locktowning you in guns and roses after a chat so...

It literally was an afterthought, in that it was a thought that happened after. I saw 96 and thought "why the fuck are we frustrated 'people aren't showing up'? it's two hours and the new meta sucks balls". So I wrote my response, but I continually refresh and read previews when writing my post in case some big shit happens and then I saw that Menal had done some spew that actually gave me good alignment pings. So I postscripted by saying that at least I had a bit of a read on Menal from it.

We did lock really fast in G&R after chatting so it's a good idea but lets rain check it to tomorrow evening, sleepy time + I kinda like having the wagon rn it helps us get out of RVS a bit and I have a town PM so I am in no danger

This read was made by the team as a collective. We think you have >rand chance of being scum based on your posts.

my first reaction was to say that this doesn't square up with you using "apparently" and "he thinks" in 149. But ehh you seem to actually give a shit which is a bigger towntell than this is a scumtell

pedit 202 seems awfully image-focused

[hitogoroshi]

pedit 202 seems awfully image-focused

probably shouldn't go to bed leaving this so vague, so: I think this is really weird

mena since you're apparently kawaii town watashi will take a isshun to post some sugoi replies

I don't know where the instinct comes from to clarify at the top that you're only posting because you're responding to an "apparent" town read. Seems very much like someone hyper-sensitive as to how they'll be perceived vs. caring at all about catching the mafia. Why would you want to post those reads from your teammates any less if mena wasn't kawaii town?

agree with Alisae I don't want a bitmap<->mastina holy war even if I agree in practice that mastinas focus on popularity ranking the teams as proto nk analysis is kind of a moot point and distraction

[hitogoroshi]

mastina 239 seems like a pretty genuine reads list, don't think scum makes a point out of doing a big reads list this early when half the entries are gonna be "I got nothin' chief'.

Was this vote RVS/pressure or do you have a scumread there?

back in my day nervously asking someone how serious their vote was before offering any comment was something disproportionately done by scum. But it's seemed kinda common in this thread so idk is this just what the kids do now? I need a meta report from someone

VOTE: gamma

mmmm you have a bit of town cred to work with but lurker vote is some weak shit one real life day in. gimme some fire

I was keeping an eye on how long it'd take ofrhz to vote without more direct needling and this is like a...low passing grade, 266 could just be a "find somewhere to be" kinda vote but at least they took a direct stance without watering down via their teammates or whatever which is more than can be said for a lot of people here.

Ok thanks mastina

definitely

being a town asset using 7 year old games.

You seem interestingly sure that mastina is town. Care to comment?

this is a decent find that makes it look like Jingle might be actually trying. Weirdly enough I still don't really have interest in pursuing Bitmap-scum, so it's like...I think this is a good scumtell in general, and I think it reflects well on Jingle to find it, but also it feels wrong to apply it to Bitmap here because of all of the prior refs to ignoring specifically? Like at least to me all of this low-grade sniping is implying that Bitmap doesn't want to sort mastina at all, and that seems coherent enough from a townie if that makes sense.

I think I want chemist for now, not a huge fan of making a big production of the shadoweh read with zero mention of how your shadoweh-town read affects your Jingle read, the person you're voting and who pretty blatantly sheeped on the top of the wagon

VOTE: Chemist1422

[hitogoroshi]

shadoweh who do you think klick should be voting instead of you?

Bitmap how do you read Klick -> Shadoweh it seems kind of weird to mix such explicitly bloc-fishing with the pressure vote but I don't have any meta background on either of them.

alisae 332 is good

chemist disavowing jingle vote as RVS and liking my pressure but then not re-voting is pretty

I'm gonna be out for pretty much all of tomorrow at a protest so if you've got any hot pulsing questions now's the time to ask 'em I think I'll be up at least another hour

[hitogoroshi]

Hito what is your Shadoweh read atm?

lean scum for the image-conscious thing, but pause for now because later actions from her will be much more alignment-indicative. The thing about me is that one of the main ways I scumhunt is looking for whether someone is actually looking for their vote to translate in to action - but when I am town votes on me never ever translate into action because I am an impossible ml. So when someone votes me for bad vibes it's pretty hard to read on its own because whether or not they sincerely believe it or are just looking for a safe place to park, my wagon ain't moving either way you know? so I plan to index heavily on what her pushing on me looks like and what her hop off looks like

the fact that gamma hasn't posted yet is strongly scum!indicative for him specifically

do you have a source for this? I know asking for meta sources is super tiresome and almost never do it, but lurker voting after 24 hours seems like a sketchy safe park prima facie but becomes fine if it's suspicious for gamma specifically.

I think I'm fairly strong on Ali!town bc I feel the same way about klick atm, and her point about gamma

wait this doesn't track, I mean I feel the same way about eir (tbh Alisae and Bitmap both just get town vibes on effort tell right now, it's classic for a reason) but if you like the counterpoint to your point about gamma's absence being scummy that feels like some unresolved tension

[hitogoroshi]

He said he's avoiding this game because he has the feeling that most of the playerlist doesn't want him here or like him and will continue to stay out unless someone or some people specifically request that he give his reads or to prevent the slot from being mislynched.

this has absolutely nothing to do with the mafia game but it is a mental health thing I have seen some friends struggle with, so I just want to say: RC it's easy to forget sometimes there's a whole continuous gradient of potential actions you can take between Really Involved and Not Involved. The fact that your first interactions with the thread were you at 100% trying to play via proxy and got a bit of backlash doesn't mean the answer is to totally self-isolate. You don't gotta choose between being a phantom extra player or a total absence. You can just sorta glide along with however much time you got, tell Bitmap if you see something big, and say nothing if ya don't. There's no need to make a big discrete decision around whether you're "in the game" or not

@hito I'm going to bed imminently but yeah I have multiple games with gamma and he's been consistently a much higher poster when town vs scum apart from when he had a head injury and dropped in activity site wide

I don't know what you mean about Ali and unresolved tension

I like that she thought gamma was scummy for not being around but then checked and walked it back because he's not been on site?

The unresolved tension is that, if you like a walkback after seeing Gamma is not on site, I would imagine you either a.) also walk it back or b.) try to impress upon Alisae the reason why you

aren't

walking it back. Just don't get the set of motivations where you're like "that's a good walkback of your gamma suspicion! anyway I'ma chill mutely with my gamma vote"

[hitogoroshi]

Hito are you willing to join us? If not I would be interested as to why

I don't have strong feelings on klick either way but that's a fucking aces way to start a wagon and you dragged a great town reaction out of menal so sure I'm down. Though I still think the biggest skeleton key for Klick is understanding Klick -> Shadoweh which I think probably needs to finish revealing itself

VOTE: Klick

hito your chem vote is bad

I feel like you're voting there because you're expecting chem to do things and that's just not gonna happen regardless of alignment

I think there's just a higher chance that he just has never played with Chemist before so he's holding him accountable and trying to vote him to get him to do stuff just like he would with any other player

correct I know nothing of chemist and am just generally trying to foster a culture of accountability in this town because that's sort of my main deal.

[hitogoroshi]

mastina you have ten scum tokens to drop into three buckets, bitmap klick gamma. how many do you put in each bucket

[hitogoroshi]

(tbh Alisae and Bitmap both just get town vibes on effort tell right now, it's classic for a reason)

You know what's also a classic?
A little saying I coined called "effort != alignment".

they're not equal but they sure as shit are correlated imo, especially if the effort increases when the thread is stalled

thanks for answering token question, it will help contextualize wagonflow later on. tbh it was a spur of the moment idea and I think it's a revealing question I should add to my toolbox

Boy oh boy you ARE new to Team Mafia aren't you.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ having played 2 and modded 1 I do think that team reads end up being not as impactful as everyone thinks they'll be. I did catch Spyrex once in Nuwen's game and it was dope as hell but I think ultimately since everything is filtered through the prism of the active player anyway the team is only a moderate factor at best

[hitogoroshi]

This is a weird take. I can't see it, and I can't see how someone else would genuinely see it.
This game has had plenty of content - there's enough out there for some sort of read on most of this cast. And Mastina doesn't strike me as someone who would avoid content as scum, or someone who would give off that impression.

It's not about creating or avoiding content. It's that I imagine a scum player who tried to do a early read list and then realizes that a bunch of their answers are "I'm not reading this person" is a lot more likely to just not post it. So I think the fact it was posted the way it was reflects well on her.

Klick, how much faith do you put in Shadoweh's reads?

[hitogoroshi]

I don't think I've seen Shadow play Mafia, but we're good friends from LSGs. She's a reasonable person, and if she's town I trust her enough to work with her towards solving this.
I know that's not really a straight answer to your question, but I don't know how to answer it as it's stated. I don't know how good her reads are, but I think we should be able to have good conversations about our reads as the game goes on.

So what I'm getting at with the question is: you had this really weird approach to Shadoweh where you voted her but mostly just to get her to notice you. You liked her responses. And her vote target was the only person in your teams top scum tier! It seems pretty inconsistent that you care

so much

about Shadoweh's opinion you're openly begging her to engage with you multiple times, but now when you're switching from voting her to voting her top suspect you don't say a word about her vote influencing your priors or seeing if she agrees with the same bad parts your team doesn't like or anything. Reading you in ISO, it sure feels like I would have heard about it if the player you voted for was Shadoweh-approved.

actually I think the entire ofrhz wagon has exactly this same sort of disease - there's like three people on it and all of them are sorta reinventing the wheel with no reference on how they like the other people on it, their arguments, etc. Contrast with Klick wagon being entirely driven by Alisae just asking three people to jump on and all of us saying yes. Big lack of solidarity on non-Klick wagons. it's doing a bit of a number to that tentative jj town read I had.

right now I got Alisae/Menal as near locktown (start from 366 and read to end of page, making sure to see the timestamps). Bitmap up there but a distinct tier below because it's mostly just effortell right now. My teammates tell me that the town points I gave to mastina for spewing are closer to null with her specific meta so adjusting the dial to just slight town. gets pretty undifferentiated from there, no super solid scum reads but Klick, Shadoweh, chemist all have stuff that seems a little off to me. I feel like there's a bit of a language barrier with Kerset where I just flat out don't understand how they're getting some of the interpretations they're getting, so that read might take a while to move.

[hitogoroshi]

hito, are you just town reading Alisae for effort?

nah, Alisae's stronger for starting the Klick wagon - you can clearly see how Alisae is trying to use it to sort and it speaks really well to what eir motivations are here. Menal's good reaction is clearly what e was fishing for.

The short version: Bitmap's strong focus on me when I am scumreading me + going out of the way to try and discredit me and downplay me as a player, is far more scum indicative and that's what I got.

Bitmap's pretty much indicated he wants to ignore you, i.e not push your wagon all day. What's the scum motivation there? How much can that really be called "strong focus"?

My vote on you had little to do with Shadow's vote on you, with independent reasons given. I didn't consciously realise Shadow was voting you when I voted you - I knew you had something resembling a wagon but couldn't recall who all was on it.

But that's exactly what I'm getting at. How on earth do you post shit like this:

Shadow come solve this game with your favorite kawaii pink blob <(^-^)>
Right now I think you could pretty easily be scum but I'd totally be willing to ignore that if you went scumhunting with me!

Sorry, by 'scumhunting' I just meant solving in general. My style is usually townhunting too tbf. I just want to see some Shadow thoughts because you're someone I'd feel comfortable and confident chatting things out with.
So I also want to see your townreads! But like, yours specifically, your team is nice and all but I want to know what you think. You're reading me as town - who else?

And then not even notice that you're voting the same person as she is? If you care so much about Shadoweh's read contingent on her being town, wouldn't you at least remember her biggest scum read?

I had this question for you in my head as I was going to sleep last night - as a general rule, do you tend to scumhunt as though everyone thinks and plays the same way? A lot of your thoughts stem from a place of 'oh, a town player would be playing in this specific way' or 'a scum player wouldn't bother with that' without ascribing things to the person posting them. Is that typical of how you play/are you conscious of it? Do you assume others also play this way?

Kind of. I assume a base state that people act consistent with their role motivations, and I wait for meta/someone's explanation to tell me if they don't. You get some false positives with this approach but you throw an awful lot of baby out with the bathwater if you assume that people's behavior is individual and there isn't an inherent tendency for townies to want credit for their pushes, scum to want to proxy responsibility, etc.

Also worth noting that the mastina thing you got from your team is the same as what I said about her. Is there any reason you didn't comment on that?

Because I disagreed with your first sentence "This game has had plenty of content - there's enough out there for some sort of read on most of this cast"; I think that the actual point of the tell is that scum in low-pressures situation don't usually want to spend a bunch of words just to emphasize they aren't having reads. But then KittyMo and Gamma both brought up, unprompted, that they

do

jive with the tell generally but for

specifically

mastina they don't think it's applicable. Which yeah is close to what your second sentence was, but it means a lot more from people who I know understand the usual theory behind it being a town tell + I know they are not lying to me whereas you might be.

Are you tying to say that wagon made out of blank votes is the best because it has solidarity? It sounds like: instant noodles are the best kind of food because they are made out of water.

I'm saying that the wagon that formed as an explicit bit of bloc-building is healthier than wagons where people aren't acknowledging their wagonmates or saying how those wagonmates influenced their reads.
cutting arbitrarily so the post doesn't get too big

[hitogoroshi]

Klick 563 is good in that demanding specific names out of "scum must be..." arguments, especially with 3-4 people wagons, is the correct play

What did you think about the meta reads given on Chemist? The ones that essentially said this is chemist’s town game.

I put a decent amount of stock into players saying "this player as town doesn't focus on using vote proactively to get info", but pretty much never trust it being an active town-tell. So sure, I believe the meta enough that it softened my scum read on chemist - that's why I hopped off. Doesn't change that chemist's early play feels off to me, so still wanted to mention it, especially since my town end is a lot more stratified than my scum end and I wanted to give at least some insight.

Re: mastina 612 - it has a lot of heart to it and seems pretty darn town indicative to me. For specifically Bitmaps switch off of me without justifying why, there is the meta softener that this happens a lot with me in particular, so I guess I'm more inclined to view it as actually a townie thing. Scum like to scrounge up a reason to get off but sometimes townies just smell the effort vibes off my posts and dip out. I liked when Alisae did it too. I think that "discredit" is one of those things whose scumminess is really contingent on the personal interpretations of stuff - I can understand Bitmap getting offended by the initial stack ranking post and then just wanting to call out that idea instead of sorting your slot. 343 is pretty sketch when you bring it up, but overall I think my feelings are still the same with what I mentioned re: Jingle - it's nominally true that Bitmap is not trying to sort the mastina slot and is instead just attacking it, but in this context I can pretty easily buy it from either alignment.

...but having typed all that shit it's pretty annoying that Bitmap then voted mastina after so much time dedicated to putdowns-implying-town. Because it's exactly consistent with Bitmap being an emotional town who's now just letting hurt feelings make him play poorly, but it's also a pretty easy move for Bitmap scum to do and have somewhere to park justifiably. And since, if Bitmap is town, this is a raw emotional nerve, sorting out which is which is a hard sell. Tbh with the way things panned out if it was gladiate between mastina vs. Bitmap I think I actually vote Bitmap now, but pouty-town still seems way too plausible for me to want it, especially in context of Bitmap's earlier play

mastina 666 (appropriate because this cross vote is cursed) is actually a pretty elegant distillation of my concern; namely that a.) yes, I agree that Bitmaps narrative isn't reflective of what actually happened in the game but b.) if you believe that Bitmap-town believes it, his actions follow pretty logically.

Earlier I thought it was weird that u didn’t scumread me since u always do when we’re both town.
Now I’m absolutely 100% convinced
I don’t think u have a read on me at all
I think u just know I’m town because r scum
VOTE: mastina

Is there some mastina meta everyone knows about but me where scum-mastina can get herself to shoot out massive cases, after joining a consensus bloc for arbitrary wagon mongering then jumping back to her pet read, when there isn't even any particular pressure? I'm tryin to start working out a townbloc here but I just can't make myself believe 612 is from scum.

I like chemist trying in 689 but buddy VCA is 95% garbage and D1 without flips it's worse than that. In a world where people are mostly voting their guts without cases or references to wagonmates, even an L-3 vote is pretty low-pressure.

When I tried to engage with Shadow she didn't seem to have had a read on you. In fact, she personally didn't seem to have any reads.
I have a bit of a one-track mind/executive functioning struggle. It's hard for me to keep a ton of info in my head at one time without referring back to notes, and that applies to Mafia as well as other things. With the exception of people who have been pushing particularly hard/the people voting me, it's hard for me to remember who anyone's voting in a game without going and checking.
I did my own read of the game and independently found that you were scummy. I wasn't focused on Shadow's opinion when I did that, so her vote on you didn't cross my mind.

I get the executive function thing (I don't know about you, but I'm on the autism spectrum [along with probably a healthy majority of ms >_>]); for whatever reason it doesn't really apply to mafia for me but if it did I can see why you'd have the miss. Maybe I'm more sensitive to it because from my point of view, I'm keeping a pretty sharp eye on Shadoweh parking on my wagon and whining it's not moving without actually pushing it in posts like 630. And my implicit assumption was "if I noticed this facet of Shadoweh's play, and Klick is heavily watching Shadoweh, that implies Klick noticed that facet." But maybe this is just a case that the person being voted tracks their accusers better than people who are just happy to throw them in the town mental pile and sort someone else. eh yeah this vote feels stale especially since it was mostly just a trust fall with Alisae

UNVOTE: Klick

Normally I always revote after unvotes but this post is pretty long and there's a few pages I've only seen flashes of in preview edit so let me cut again and get to those.

[hitogoroshi]

mastina 703

bleeds

town, c'mon y'all.

I've probably changed my mind about Kerset. Hito's still scum though? Why aren't more people voting him???

because I don’t think you ever explained that

I dunno why I have to explain it tbh, no one is townreading him so people obviously don't think he's very town but people aren't voting him. I didn't like his post voting Chemist for uh, calling me town, I guess that's a bit biased on my part but it felt bizzare to me. I don't know how to explain it, person comes in, posts 'i am reading this person' 'okay i think they're town', I don't get why you'd vote them for this as a big deal. If you look at your own reads you'll see voting him to be full of kibou!! ✩⃛( ͒ ु•·̫• ू ͒)

I don't think I've really seen much from Bitmap besides arguing with Mastina, talking about RC, townreading Klick and scumreading Jingle, but I'd be interested to see if someone can prove me wrong.

that seems like a lot of stuff to me???? pour qoi is this not zutto sufficient?

Stop wasting time crossvoting tbh, I also can't remember what mastina's done besides call Bitmap scum, but that might be because my eyes are kiri ni naruing over these posts. I'm not voting for mastina or Bitmap, I think this is distracting in general.

Obviously I am biased but like, this is a really terrible post right? Bitmap vs. mastina is the fire at the heart of things, and Shadoweh has the soft condemn of "I think we should ignore it" and at least kinda-sorta implying it's TVT - but without hard comitting to a TR on either one, reaching out to one side or the other, trying to peel voters off their wagons (if no one likes me, that should be pretty doable!), whatever. Instead she's just lamenting that it's taking oxygen away from my wagon, but still doing barely anything to push it beyond lamenting that it's not pushing itself. Especially don't like that the one point she does bring up is the chemist vote from forever ago - feels more like something she squirreled away from back when she posted her reads list than what earnestly came top of mind now. As someone who

actually

doesn't want mastina or Bitmap as the lynch today, this feels a lot more like someone saying they don't want to be seen on either one while being actually quite happy that this distraction is happening.

Klick 719 is great and if I hadn't unvoted already I would have then. I'll even give Jingle a point for 724 pointing out how good 719 was.

mechanical spec is pretty silly rn and probably mostly serves to give scum a hint of what role information

you're

working with. Probably don't do it!

I'm fairly confident I'll obvtown as game goes on; I just don't think I've obvtowned

yet

which makes the TRs on me TMIy or just bad

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Dunno what to tell ya boss; been playing over a decade and someone making an obstinate comment about "I'll switch when I'm ready!" and then blank-voting because someone asked them do in the

same minute

is just really good. A lot of the best tells are the ones that happened very quick in real-life time; this is part of why twilight can be so strong for getting good reads. Even knowing I'm looking for it makes it only partially exploitable for scum; it just fundamentally takes more time to run your view through the fake prism you're maintaining, and scum trying to instant-agree to fake this towntell risk it exploding pretty bad if it doesn't actually mesh with their previous gestalt. Just take the W my dude

if I get a response to the question I asked her earlier then I'll see if I can tie it up and present it to you with a nice bow and a ribbon.
What color would you like the bow and ribbon to be?

I guess if I condensed my mastina-town feelings it'd be:
a.) aiming for Bitmap when she had plenty of runway to explicitly ignore him
b.) putting in all of that effort when the game has so many weak wagons
c.) 703 being so explicit about why she's deferring the read

So if you think I'm wrong, those are some of the specific lenses I'd be evaluating meta cases with. Though I'm gonna be real with you that it'd have to be some pretty damning meta to make me want to vote mastina at this point.


---

big ups: mastina, menal, alisae
medium ups: klick
small ups: jingle, ofr (nothing really special on either of them they've just had posts that feel actually-trying-to-sort more than the names below them)
meh: chemist
grr: jj
arg: shadoweh
deferring for now: gamma (though I do think lurker callouts are a little more legitimate when there are three teammates helping keep you accountable, so maybe grr tier just for that), kerset

bitmap not on tier list because it's so contingent on gauging emotional state. his push is clearly unreasonable and inconsistent w/r/t his earlier position of "I will ignore mastina as a game entity to just make a bunch of snipes about her competency, even though assuming that she's attempting to play competently is effectively calling her town" but the question is whether we would expect that inconsistency from a townie who felt aggrieved.

Wanted to just heavily re-index on Shadoweh when she moved off or pushed harder on me, but the fact that she's not doing either even as she bemoans the wagon that's happening instead is enough for me at this point. Plus getting my blood up a little seems more productive than the shitshow we got going now

VOTE: Shadoweh

[hitogoroshi]

Worth noting that Ceph now thinks no one is scummy

Its like he's really here beside me... :'D

[hitogoroshi]

Could you compare shadow and menalque? They both didn't make hard stance or peel voters as you describe. Mena made light push in 776 and keep his vote on lurker. One is your main (or one of main) townread and the other your main scumread.

Menal was willing to be pulled on Klick wagon in 370 just to be doing something. When he switched to Gamma, he had 782 and 794 attempting to get support from specific people. So it feels like one way or another, Menal wants to be getting value from his vote.

By contrast, Shadoweh's energy is more like:

I dunno how i feel about these ofr votes either, Im kinda looking at the wagons and being like why are literally only people i think are town getting some traction. I'm not inclined to move atm so its hard to motivate myself to post when I could have summed up my position as still not moving also if y'all could stop what you're doing that'd be gr8

I've probably changed my mind about Kerset. Hito's still scum though? Why aren't more people voting him???

I dunno why I have to explain it tbh, no one is townreading him so people obviously don't think he's very town but people aren't voting him. I didn't like his post voting Chemist for uh, calling me town, I guess that's a bit biased on my part but it felt bizzare to me. I don't know how to explain it, person comes in, posts 'i am reading this person' 'okay i think they're town', I don't get why you'd vote them for this as a big deal. If you look at your own reads you'll see voting him to be full of kibou!! ✩⃛( ͒ ु•·̫• ू ͒)

that last one the only time Shadoweh reached out to a voter with a reason to vote me, and it was because that voter asked, not Shadoweh herself. Like it's very clear that menal isn't content with the way the game is going and is trying to affect change; I don't get that vibe from Shadoweh at all. She says in 830 that this apathy is because my lynch is apparently steamrolling in to inevitability or something:

Arguably I have actually done nothing but push on you! I even went out of my way to explain some thoughts on that to a nice boy that asked. I'm pretty sure its going well actually and you're going to be lynched, aren't you looking forward to your PUNISHMENT TIME?? ฅ(*ΦωΦ*) ฅ

But this seems like insincere bluster, since I'm at a cool L-4 with no pressure, and the only thing that changed since Shadoweh's frustrated 630 was a single additional vote from ofr. Do you really think you'd sit in Shadoweh's shoes, read this enormous mastina/Bitmap shitfit, and think "Lucky me! hito's the one destined to die today, and I didn't even have to do anything"? If you had to rate players in the game from most to least likely to die this D1, where do you rank me? It seems way more coherent that Shadoweh just doesn't want to do much because she is scum and the game is going the way she wants and she just has to find a safe place to chill out.

continuing to get current with the thread but I want this post to stand on it's own since it ended up being a pretty good summary of my Shadoweh suspicion

[hitogoroshi]

Shadoweh Chemist Mena Kerset Bitmap
Hito Klick
GE jjh ofhrz
mastina jingle

Would love anything you got on Kerset. I liked his last question to me here but I still just find him kinda moon-logic and nigh-impossible to interpret.

Gamma isn't lynch pool material. He's just vig pool material.

Not a big fan of this b/c there's still Ten Stinkin Days on the deadline and plenty of reason to believe we might have a rep in here. Though I'm not actually sure if scum like, think that one alignment or another is more likely to replace in so I guess I don't know if it's actually a tell in any meaningful sense. My gut just doesn't like this sorta...premature closing I guess?

Inability to handle pressure well is the only reason something similar to this would happen as either alignment. The fact that it is so overblown in proportion, and that the paranoia expressed does not lead anywhere- in other words, it is entirely a defence- is the issue I am seeing

Well, remember the context that the insecurity started with mastina's team ranking post (which I do think was pretty tactless and unproductive). With that lens, I feel like there's a bigger chance it could come from town, which is why it's so hard to read.

Jingle 938 is good. It's weird I don't feel like I have a strong read on Jingle but I think this is the third time I have quoted a Jingle post and said it's good, so maybe I just think Jingle is town??

Hito I like her reads because they're different from what everyone else is thinking in general and I believe that she is trying to figure out the game.

But isn't it *actually quite bad* if your reads are different from what everyone else is thinking in general and the conversation is dominated by what everyone else is thinking in general and not what you're thinking? That's kinda my point. Shadoweh seems way too comfortable for how counter-culture she is.

To be fair, that opportunity to reindex on Shadoweh that I was mentioning earlier is still there - it's still true that I'm not getting lynched and that at some point we'll get to see how Shadoweh reacts to that and that reaction has the chance to make things pretty obvious one way or the other. I just think that it's now unlikely enough that Shadoweh has a good reaction that this seems like the right vote even before getting that info.

[hitogoroshi]

pretty fucking stupid to play mafia on a day like today but hey

Oh my god you're still trying to stick to this scumread.

What's a better one? I am pretty famous for negotiating with terrorists

My favorite part of your case Hito is if I reversed it and made it about your futile vote on me, it could be a map of your Day 1 scum strategy here. ~(=^‥^)ノ☆

More or less my entire point is how much this isn't true. Actually, my teammates have you more null because they're not as convinced I am that there's anything to read in the lack of proactivity (or phrased differently, I think lack of proactivitly is inherently mafia more often than they do); but whether your views on the correlation of proactivity/alignment, it's pretty plainly untrue to say you could make the same lack of proactivity case on me.

Just watch hunters ant arc again instead of whatever anime you were gonna watch

You're at 3 votes and other people in thread have expressed suspicion of you + most people have you, at best, a townread of the lowest quality. I should think it obvious you have a good chance of being lynched today. Is denial part of expressing fake confidence? It's definitely true in this economy people want to vote people who panic over people who keep it together, but I think your reaction is dishonest to reality.

ya I guess in retrospect my argument kind of involves you know my meta. my point was that a wagon full of onesie twosie voters who aren't acknowledging each other or particularly trying to wagon is a lot weaker than one where people are at least nominally acknowledging each other and a shared perception of why this person should die. But I suppose sometimes those apathy wagons end up hitting somebody just because noting better was wrangled up and maybe you think that's happening today without knowing how little I fuck with that sorta thing

Kerset's entrance was awkward, but I've found them since then to be fairly clear in their inquisitions, what's moon logicy about them?

Just zooming through iso, 216, 481, 488 are examples of posts I have zero clue how to interpret. Though looking at it all at once here I definitely have an easier time at least understanding the notional intent behind his later posts (even if I still don't have a sense of alignment yet).

This is pointless to point out tbh and I think you just added this to pad your wordcount. What does the comment about scum thinking one or the other is more likely to replace in mean btw? The most likely alignment to replace is town because there are more town then scum. You're implying Bitmap is protecting their scumbuddy or something which is a bit ridiculous. (also immediately followed by you pointing out Bitmap is likely town anyways via their reaction to mastina's team ranking post)

Probably could have phrased that better. Let's try...Bitmap saying we should exclude Gamma today when there's plenty of chance that he'll be replaced by a new player who gives us a good view into the slots alignment seems artificial. So my first thought is something like "Bitmap knowing the alignment of that slot is what's making him write off the idea that a new player will come in to that slot and give us easy visibility." But then I thought about it, and it's not like I have a theory on whether town or scum would be more or less likely to replace / give a view on the slot there. So it's hard to call it a 'tell', because it's not like I can articulate what worldview I think Bitmap-scum would be slipping there. But it still felt non-genuine and worth keeping an eye on.

And the whole point about Bitmap's reaction is that he'd be offended there regardless of alignment, which is why this whole development makes him a rough solve.

When it comes to mafia, I'm not an aggressive person. At least I don't think lynches happen productively over people screaming at each other. I'm not the kind of person who's going to hound people for not immediately scumreading the same people as me. I have faith that people will come around to my thinking, or at least that we'll come to a conclusion that isn't horrible, and we will try again another day if it doesn't work out. Mafia is a marathon, not a sprint. Maybe people used to dying N1 don't understand that kind of thing. I do my best when I've had time and flips to base my confidence on.

In any case I think accusing someone of being scum for having their own brain and not getting in line with the other peons that'd rather argue about mastina/bitmap for the next ten years is scummy, or at the very least insulting as a human being.

Also, I'm definitely more comfortable with people townreading me, like duh? I am going to live and probably get to continue to express my opinion and fight for my team? That's sugoi with me! โ๏∀๏ใ

I think mastina/bitmap is a blind alley today also friendo. The thing I don't like is your only-speak-when-spoken-to attitude with the peons. make em see the light!

cutting cause this was a wall but hey. at least feels like we're talking now!

[hitogoroshi]

Shadoweh, it doesn't matter if people lightly scum reads or scum reads hito. If there's no strong driving factor pushing for a lynch, it usually never goes the way you want it to go.

haha maybe I was wrong about my point needing meta because basically this is what I was getting at. Though maybe this is just revealing that both Bitmap and I are traffic cops and Shadoweh isn't and we're seeing an interesting observer bias thing. (I don't actually know if Bitmap is usually a traffic cop or not.)

i think you should vote Jingle
can we talk more about Jingle

You can talk more about Jingle if you want buddy!! Am I wrong for my town pings? Is Jingle some superstar operator with a grand plan I don't see? Sure looks like someone just poking shit to see what happens which is what townies oughta do in listless games.

I appreciate everyone encouraging me to pursue my own reads while RC bangs his head against a wall in our discord server.

You say reads plural but obvious your self-imposed 1v1 makes it pretty hard. If mastina was dayvigged and flipped red, who do you go for? green? governed?

If you really believe this {menal obvtown read} then I'd love to hear why you think this actually

I really believe it and I can't shut the fuck up about it. What do you think about

my

menal TR? See 820, 952.

VOTE: mastina

this game lacks spice

Give you the same question as Bitmap to try to get in your head here. Who's your favorite kill on mastina redflip/greenflip, and who do you pivot to if she's governed?

[hitogoroshi]

Actually, Alisae, whatever happened to you pushing back against my mastina-town thoughts? You went from saying you'd put a bow on it to just kinda dipping to Jingle. Is Jingle a lot worse than mastina? Why the switch?

[hitogoroshi]

In contrast, if Bitmap is scum as I assume, that group is incredibly unlikely to contain scum and I would think them all town.

Who

is

scum on Bitmap redflip? I guess you have your Kerset read, but I remember Kerset -> Bitmap having some "you are fools for this push" elements that seemed a little on the nose for scum/scum. Though I'm sneaking on for like five minutes before I leave for work so no time to actually pull up evidence.

*grumbles in annoying town random unvoters*
I've forgotten how much I hate games lasting so long that wagons die b/c people get bored of them.

I told you what was gonna happen with the wagon! you had fair warning!!

Gimme more on ofr. This is now the third time you've intimated she's town, but you've never otherwise talked to her or about her.

@hito: Your latter point about Menalque trying to actively influence the gamestate with his vote/convincing people to join him doesn't do much for me. Probably because in two of the three games I've played semi-recently, Menalque was scum who did this liberally and made it a core part of his strategy. He is acutely aware that playing this way gets him townread.

Would like to read the best example if you have it on hand; it's kinda like mastina in that I have absolutely

zero

intention of walking back these locktowns today but in case we get to paranoia endtimes and I'm alive and you're not, would be nice to have the chance to break out if I'm getting snowed and being kept alive as scumpet.

Let me re-read jjh in more detail tonight. He's in a weird spot where the town stock of the town in general has kinda inflated and I don't like where he went, so he's far down on the list, but without a compelling narrative or anything. So in essence I'm kinda exactly where Klick is (some kind of odd pings, without anything to sink teeth in to) but to me that's kind of a gamey reason to vote, not a good one (because if you have no real theory of what those gut pings are being caused by, it increases the chance you're just firing on style and have only rand% chance of hitting). Especially because I don't know if there's like, a big unactiviated core of people who'd prefer jjh over Shadoweh - and more importantly, if there are, I don't know why and whether I believe em

[hitogoroshi]

@ work on phone so shitty post but jj do you think this is kerset doing a specious defense of a buddy or a white knight he wasn't expecting to be held accountable to? Agree that 1122 is strange but can't tell what you think the reason is

[hitogoroshi]

I'm not sure why anyone of either alignment goes in with a throwaway defence like that. But it feels very off, so I'm gonna keep pushing.

mastina jingle how are y'all picking up on what jj is doing when even jj doesn't know what jj is doing. I mean in the very strictest sense I have a lot of town reads and kerset being stubbornly null means that he's not a horrible consoloation prize, but come the fuck on y'all it's page 50. maybe lets try to have the barest fucking shred of looking for who is mafia vs town instead of being like "well I have no idea why kerset-scum would be more likely to type that sentence than kerset-town, but hey it sure was a wuh-wuh-waaacccckkkky post huh??" What happened because of Kerset getting a red PM that wouldn't have happened had they got a green PM. who do we think their actions are in service of. like hey y'all if you don't think that Shadoweh being so reactive and self-focused is a scum indicator, talk to me about it! I change my mind fast! but it is kind of fucking galling to keep a bead on that and learn that a more compelling theory than "I think the punitively frustrated person who's actually focused on responses and reaction is a good scum candidate" is "haha what's THAT post about? I sure don't know!!"

the one bright side to this is that I think it reflects better on jj that he's still sniping Bitmap from Kerset-wagon; feel like the whole point of scum-jj jumping to Kerset would be to ignore Bitmap and just get a lynch locked in

I was thinking voting hito but Shadoweh barely posts so it makes me sad.

terrible post, for two reasons

1. What does Shadoweh posting or not have to do with what role PM I received
2. Given that you said:

Also hito, on mastina red flip, I'd probably suspect jj for protecting scum and one of the mastina fence sitters. On green flip, I'd probably suspect you the most.

Why is your instinct to switch to the person who's suspicious on a mastina

greenflip?

Aren't you

really sure

she's flipping red?

we all know reundo 1238 sucks, if it sucks because he's scum it'll probably be obvious quick, hey reundo 1.) why did you think in-depth reads would be pointless 2.) what reads did your team have waiting for you.

[hitogoroshi]

hm why are you trying to manipulate others’ opinions on a post with “we all know”

great question! mostly I said 'we all know it sucks" because of how much we all know it sucks, hope that helps

but no real talk I think actually my motivation is avoiding someone sidling up and being like "hey, that post where reundo just summarized a flat read tiers list with no context over 50 pages and voted on the top wagon? it's...bad vote reundo." either the post is bad because he's scum who can't make himself fake a bunch of reasons for his read, he's town who just didn't try, or the spicy double-double option where he happens to have randed scum but would have had a similar post as town. if it's the first one, then great, someone who can't fake town thought process today probably can't fake it tomorrow and it should get pretty easy in a matter of days. In the meantime I don't want reundo to be a place where people can just park because of post quality without actually bringing alignment in to it because it looks suspiciously like there is a big market in this town for that sort of thing!

Kers otoh is acting unnaturally to the other big 1v1 and I’m getting severe flying under the radar vibes.

I swear the blood vessels in my eyes are going to explode, how is Kerset randomly antagonizing jj's Bitmap case more "flying under the radar" than Shadoweh limiting herself to direct responses and an extremely unspecific commendation of mastina<->bitmap

we all know reundo 1238 sucks, if it sucks because he's scum it'll probably be obvious quick, hey reundo 1.) why did you think in-depth reads would be pointless 2.) what reads did your team have waiting for you.

But like... is it?

Sorry mate I have literally no idea what question you're trying to ask here

[hitogoroshi]

it's late so I'm gonna do the thing where I just give reads top dome without looking back at thread at all. so stuff here is less likely to be accurate but shows how its indexed in my brain

mastina still seems pretty locktown to me, multiple people keep saying this is in her scum range and then mysteriously not following through. seems like an absurd amount of effort especially for how listless things were when she started

menal gets at least d1 as free locktown probably d2, the recent active lurking does not worry me yet

like jj much more with recent stuff, even if I disagree with his kerset push his recent energy has felt legitimate

kerset I think I would have a pretty solid sense of if he was voting jj right now, but still got no idea what to make of him doing this while voting mastina still

alisae I guess I am weakening the town read of a bit, because every time I mention to eir that I'm willing to listen on reasons to vote mastina/jingle e's just kinda been...not caring? the whole point of the klick trust fall was to emphasize that I felt a proto-bloc being built and it feels like a step backwards that alisae is back on mastina once more without caring to resolve the massive chasm in our mastina reads at all. Like if Alisae is shot tonight and I live, shoudn't e be a little more worried how different the agendas we're pushing are? To a degree this is kinda academic because alisae still isn't remotely on my lynch list at all. just feel like it's worth saying.

I think reundo is probably just scum tbh, all of the warning signs for cursed scum replacement slot are there. but it's easy enough to wait a few days and see if trends hold + even if he's mafia, I still want his partners to have to do the hard work of pretending to look for the other mafia instead of reundo wagon being the trendy place to park and end the day.

Klick has a v shaped suspicion curve - early link with Shadoweh felt off, then had really good posting + a good enough explanation for his shadoweh inconsistencies, but now that the pressures off he's kind of a non-presence? but also he's got Ceph on his team which counts for a fair bit imo because I bet I can interpret the veracity of ceph thoughts via proxy, so not as worried klick-wise.

bitmap I think I'm coming around to being Just Plain Scum - I can't defer based on his (legitimate!) grievance forever and it's been some sketchville recent posts. the swap to me when I'm his mastina-greenflip suspicion seems gross. and that timer on his vote seems like a really apparent way to proxy away responsibility for his vote, especially since alisae challenged him nigh-instantly on it and he's actually USING that proxy, boo.

shadoweh you already know what I'm gonna say talks mad game about my scumminess and her frustration with what people are doing instead but p much all her posting is reactive/responsive

jingle...sure, why not. that's it, that's the read

oh, my spicy scum read is ofr, partly this is just for the buddy vibes with shadoweh and also she's been hustling that non-voting, non-controversial active lurking ever since unvoting me. very don't-make-waves energy.

I actually had to check the OP slightly breaking my no-reading-thread clause cause i stone cold forgot who the last player was. Idk what that says about chemist, dudes posting but he's just not sticking in ol' brainy recently. I guess before I actively had some suspicions and now I don't have him worth remembering so that's...improvement? kinda the same place as jingle but jingle's a rung higher on the townie ladder

[hitogoroshi]

haha sorry Ali I went to bed after posting that and now I have work. But good for you townie as shit reaction because that was pretty clearly motivated by guilt and not fear. Will engage more tonight (but late tonight cause I have Unknown Armies after work)

Hi. I have actual messages from

NSG

.

She said that I've been completely mistreated this game and that is not fair for me. She believes Klick and ofrhz (there's you're town read from NSG, ofrhz) are both locktown and has weaker town reads on [Shadoweh, Jingle, Kerset]. Her scum pool is right now [Menalque, Chemise, Reundo, Alisae] and thinks out of all of them, Alisae is most likely scum.

She has more things to say but wanted to know if I was okay with paraphrasing her blocks of text and I said that's fine so expect some more NSG in this thread down the road.

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

[hitogoroshi]

hito I feel like you’re pushing bad play instead of scummy play

would I be wrong on that

gotta run but the 1-minute version is that a lot of bad play is bad because it's easy for scum to replicate, so yes there is an element of that in my play-style but it's not like 'good/bad player' and 'mafia/town pm' sit on separate axes. When bad play is totally orthogonal to intent it doesn't really give me scumpings. But things like diminishing the responsibility of your reads pre-flip or not pushing when the town consensus is way against what you want are 'bad' play if you're a townie, but 'exactly what you want' as a mafia if the town isn't about to hit you or your buddies - so it seems very sensible to push against that 'bad play', because townies can react to that accusation by playing better and helping their wincon but scum have to react to that accusation with fake work they don't wanna do and then you can catch out on bad effort or lies or etc.

pedit menalque pls name the baby after me

[hitogoroshi]

it’s not I’m 15

jesus christ. I started playing pre-ms so I have been playing mafia almost as long as you have been anything. the years start coming and they simply do not stop coming

Also do you have any thoughts on NSG's reads? I got her to give reads based on people requesting it and it would be a slap on the face for her if people just ignored it.

I still got an open one to ya:

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

re: mena case on ofr - I guess it' just recency bias, but ofr

lately

has been pretty fucking cursed, right?

re: Kerset - I'm with pops in that the AtE seems to be kind of genuine (also insufferable but that goes without saying). But it's also like, if this is what we're getting out of Kerset it's not like we could ever lock in a REALLY sure read, right? At least there are enough good options today I'm not that uncomfortable punting this, but we can't punt forever and I have no idea what's gonna change. tbh I'm kinda just hoping that's where role power goes.

like I don't really care about that play the game

I'm asking about this because I think NSG has a higher tolerance for what actually construes mistreatment than this

fucking cosigned

cutting arbitrarily for length + so ali knows I'm here

[hitogoroshi]

RC wants to add something.

He said that him and NSG are here just to lynch scum and not have dank/spicy reads. If you think the read we posted is correct, vote with us.

why does NSG say vote "with us" when your vote is on me who she had no thoughts on either way. It must have been a source of friction, her havin me null when RC has me lockscum and I'm your number 2-3 - so it seems that NSG would be especially keen to notice that you're voting against her suspicions.

I'm cursed?

This post is ISO 71. Unless you count "I agree with reundo" (and I fuckin' don't!) the last time you have intimated that someone might have a non-town alignment is 834, ISO 47. The last time you voted was me 765, ISO 44, and you pretty quickly softened your stance by clarifying you liked menals reason to townread me in 825, ISO 46. You've managed to ninja me finnaalllly breaking this curse, but only on the fucking default ass reundo wagon for a really arbitrary reason and a totally objective reason (which is something that generally scumbolinas seek out).

Also let's fucking think about this read list for a hot second:

jjh, mastina, klick, chemist, mena
shadoweh
hito, kerset
jingle
alisae, bitmap
reundo

You think that reundo is scum, but ALSO that Alisae is as well? And you have Alisae and bitmap *together* in the scum tier? who the hell do you think reundo is partners with here? no thoughts on shadoweh not listening to your reason to unvote me, or me keeping a bead on her so long? Just L-2 on the low-hanging fruit while making it all sound like your own idea.

Like damn I was gonna make a post to the effect of "reundo is just scum but I wish we would have pretended not to notice a little longer to force another round of commitments out of folks over the weekend", but god I can't even get excited about voting on the same place as this. I guess it could just a clumsy bus too - actually maybe bus is even more likely because ofrhz just wants to be on and isn't expecting to be grilled because she knows its a red flip or something? But my goodness these reads feel just fake as all hell

UNVOTE: Shadoweh
VOTE: ofrhz

Ali am I insane for this? I mean push come to shove I think that all of {ofrhz, Bitmap, Shadoweh, reundo} are fine lynches, kerset a distant fifth mostly as a PL. But like, just looking at the cohesive beliefs that go in to reads, doesn't it seem weird that ofrhz can TR so many people who have you lock without inheriting that lock at all? And that she loves everyone who hates Kerset but Kerset himself leans town?

(Klick, you are involved in a long ongoing chain of history. Please inform Cephrir that I am, once again, invoking cohesion tell and ask him if we can just acknowledge it works from the jump this time instead of waiting to catch the person later some other way )

do not interpret this as me liking Shadoweh any more she is getting away with fucking murder and no one cares but me. Also Shadoweh 1537 pretty much acknowledges I am town, lmao. but I feel like it's a lot more brazen how artificial ofrhz's reads here with how little she actually seems to care what her TRs think. and ofrhz <--> Shadoweh is buddy looking enough one red means snap to the other so happy to see if this one is more obvious to you nerds

[hitogoroshi]

RC wants to add something.

He said that him and NSG are here just to lynch scum and not have dank/spicy reads. If you think the read we posted is correct, vote with us.

why does NSG say vote "with us" when your vote is on me who she had no thoughts on either way. It must have been a source of friction, her havin me null when RC has me lockscum and I'm your number 2-3 - so it seems that NSG would be especially keen to notice that you're voting against her suspicions.

The quote clearly states that "RC wants to add something"

Are you truly, truly fucking tell me that RC wanted to add a comment that "NSG and him are here to lynch scum", and that what you should do is vote with 'us' meaning Bitmap and RC and NOT NSG, because you and NSG share no scum reads? RC wanted to extend the olive branch that was also a giant middle finger to NSG because he's saying "if you think the read we posted" [on hito, which was posted ages ago because NSG doesn't have shit to say about hito] "then you should vote with us" [on the hito wagon, which Bitmap gave himself a explicit minimum time on, and implied that that minimum time is the only reason he's on it in 1284]. That's the message that RC wanted to share with the thread?

You think that reundo is scum, but ALSO that Alisae is as well? And you have Alisae and bitmap *together* in the scum tier? who the hell do you think reundo is partners with here?

I feel like this would be town indicative

Why? Haven't you noticed that players are squadding up in blocs based on shared understandings of the gamestate? Like your own snapback on jjh/mastina when you realized that the puzzle didn't work without em both town? here let me drudge up my cohesion tell hits from my last coupla games and you tell me if you think it's the same thing here

[hitogoroshi]

What’s the scum motivation?

it's not about scum motivation, it's about scum process: you're not coming up with ONE mental model about how the game is progressing (because you already know who has what alignment), you're coming up with TWELVE fake reads. So when you want your fake reasons, sometimes you miss that it would have been impossible to legitimately get a TR on that person without at least understanding why they feel such a way about a different read - and it's pretty suspect to just not care about that at all. It's not just disagreeing with your TRs because obviously that happens all the time. The suspicious thing is when people form reads based on a shared COMMON understanding of the gamestate, and then someone picks and chooses parts of it without caring that they've gotta ignore the shit out of their TRs to do it and not trying to close that gap at all. Thanks for Ariel asking me about it in Discord as I was excitedly talking about it because it helped me articulate when it is and isn't relevant.

anyway cephrir and I have had a three game conversation about this and it is funny to post it here. Although in the first game, Accounting Mafia the first time I invoked it I was actually wrong about it: this post is about town

think actually my pick might be shannon? I am sort of getting a personality cult this game of people who agree with my fundamental game vision in you, Accountant, Bork, and shannon. But shannon, after all of the posts agreeing with my version of the gamestate, is voting for Accountant - who is also in the cult and subscribes to mostly the same vision of the game - on, near as I can tell, just this weaksauce reasoning. It seems weird that I would find her vote so incomphrensible when the rest of her posting is largely in line with mine.

and Ceph responded:

who cares? if anything this should be a point in her favor that she's not bloc voting with allies but rather thinking for herself. and i don't even think she's town!

reading back I think that the miss was that I was thinking "it's weird to vote Accountant when you like everyone else who shares the reads he has", but I think it only works specifically if I was hard TR-ing Accountant there which I wasn't. I did a similar argument again that game and got it right; this post is to scum (Accounting Mafia was an awful excruciating game and it took a long time to get that precious W)

Yes? I think you are reading my posts backwards, I'm saying it's weird you're NOT arguing with me. If you've got a pit bull rawr rawr scum read on ETL, BUT I'm your top townread, surely there's some unresolved opportunity there? To figure out why I'm townreading ETL, or to try to make me see the error of my ways, or etc.

so anyway, with that kind of revised understanding, we talked about it again in 17 kilos of cocaine. This post is about scum:

More specifically, it's a little weird how little stock he puts in his townreads town and scum reads. Of course, someone being town doesn't mean they're right, but usually in practice it's at least kind of correlated that you think someone is town based on their reads. But he's got bulbas scum read in town, bulbas town reads in neutral, Bins top scum read in neutral (she's on Elli now but was really vs Ginngie at time of posting)...I guess Spiffeh's reads are stale and despes reads never existed so really it's mostly just Bulba that caught my eye here.

Seems like a playstyle difference. You'll have to excuse it if I do the same thing... wait we've done this conversation before haven't we

LMAO
I was curious enough to look it up and we had a related but not exactly the same conversation. the conversation in accounting mafia was "I find it weird that someone would agree with all of my positions then vote this other player who's kind of a carbon copy of my positions". Whereas this is "I find it weird that someone has these townreads without putting any stock in to what their townreads actually think." But I guess you could disagree with both for the same playstyle reason, yeah.

and then my last game was guns and roses. This post is about scum:

wow damn I really hate this post. LLD has S_S as a scumread but not her top vote, and I have S_S as a townread. but implosion doesn't engage with either of us? It feels like both "try to sell a townread on a wagon they like, but isn't their top" and "try to work out disagreement with townread" are both things you would want to do and I really don't like not seeing either of them. feels very much like voting to be seen voting vs voting to accomplish anything.

I dont by any means think implosion is a shining beacon of townie light but I could see myself doing the things you're criticizing him for, hi to, and for that reason I am not very convinced!

everything old is new again etc. Though I guess making myself go back and review the cohesion tell stuff in more detail makes me think that maaaybe it's not as strong when at least ofrhz's vote is on someone a lot of her townies are voting - the Alisae read is by far the one that's got me concerned the most. and so maybe there's a world where she's just not thinking about it that much, because it's not her actual factual vote? But still, I feel pretty convinced that it should be impossible to have the TRs ofr purported to have, but also an alisae scum read, and feel absolutely no need to work at or even comment on that gulf. Does that make sense? the concern is that the live-action hugbox that just went down ended up with all of you together for a reason, and ofrhz not having *that* reason for her TRs of the-hugbox-crew-but-without-you but neither having *another* reason makes it look a lot more like her reads were cooked up in a lab vs. being generated by someone reading the thread.

[hitogoroshi]

hi

sry mate I am going to bed in like two minutes

but that's kind of the long and short of it, if you don't think that ofrhz's read list is wacky and fake sounding (and also that she seems way too focused on sounding independent for her reason on reundo), Bitmap/Shadoweh/and yes even reundo because ofrhz's bad post on wagon doesn't preclude bus, any of those four are all cool with me. Just like, at least let's get this one out there and see? Because I was already biased a bit against voting reundo right this second just because of how boring it is and how little it tells us, and when one of the other people I was watching did a really really sketch post to L-2 vote reundo it makes me want it even less.

[hitogoroshi]

You think that reundo is scum, but ALSO that Alisae is as well? And you have Alisae and bitmap *together* in the scum tier? who the hell do you think reundo is partners with here? no thoughts on shadoweh not listening to your reason to unvote me, or me keeping a bead on her so long? Just L-2 on the low-hanging fruit while making it all sound like your own idea.

your tone here suggests to me that you think those reads are bizarre. To me that comes up as a red flag because I don't see as scum why she imploys that strategy when its easier to just put the whole bloc as town

Have thoughts on this but it makes more sense to wait and hear what ofrhz says first. I think you're kinda missing what I think the suspicious thing is but if you are that means ofrhz might also, which means we could get an answer that's really revealing in either direction.

Gotta agree with ofr in that the Kerset views on mastina/jjh seem really underdetermined. If mastina is pocketing jjh so obviously that even a newbie would notice by now, then jjh is town! It kinda seems like you want to just quote individual posts you don't like in isolation, but the whole point is that peoples actions need to be interpreted in the context of how they interact with everyone else. Kerset, maybe a more productive way to have this discussion is - who are your strongest

townreads

, and what do you think they're missing on mastina? What do jjh/mastina flips makes you think about the other one?

As for Reundo feel free to lynch him. I feel no empathy for lurkers.

Even when this wagon was conjured up by basically your worst enemies? If I daycopped Reundo red right now, who are your picks for his buddies?

I am genuinely flabbergasted that Reundo could have ofr as his alpha scumread but both "person who went apeshit on ofr" and "person who passionately defended the hell out of ofr" as null. How can the exact discussion you wanted happen like...two pages ago and you don't have a single thought on it?

@ofrhz

nsg wants u to unvote

To vote who, and why?

What? VT in mini theme? Sounds like bs.

???
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a role madness mini theme run here

Both happen plenty of times. Having a few VTs at the end helps contain swing, which I would imagine is a design goal here since it's more important than usual to make sure every time has a chance to influence gamestate. (Or, at least, that was a big constraint *I* followed for Signs and Void ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) But role madness is also perfectly possible. In any case, speculating about which is which D1 means that you're mostly going off of your *own* PM, which means you kinda leak to scum what information you have, which means I think we should probably just drop this for now

[hitogoroshi]

your tone here suggests to me that you think those reads are bizarre. To me that comes up as a red flag because I don't see as scum why she imploys that strategy when its easier to just put the whole bloc as town

Have thoughts on this but it makes more sense to wait and hear what ofrhz says first. I think you're kinda missing what I think the suspicious thing is but if you are that means ofrhz might also, which means we could get an answer that's really revealing in either direction.

Looping back on this now that ofrhz responded - I think saying "wouldn't fake reads A be more strategic than fake reads B" is already sorta putting more intent behind this than exists, if that makes sense. I imagine the whole reason this works is just because scum isn't doing the extra work to read their TRs and see what they think, since they aren't trying to figure out any alignments. And it's more of a not-paying-attention thing.

I actually like Kerset 1766 even if I disagree with it, feels like a legit tunnel rather than an affected one if that makes sense. I guess the question, though, is whether Kerset is a player who can be death tunneled and still be as factually wrong as 1777 points out. I know that *my* tunnels leave me hyper-sensitive to what the person is actually posting (which is not to say that my tunnels are always right; just that I don't say *objectively* wrong things because the whole point of tunneling is how much attention I'm paying). Oh, I guess his answer is 1799 is that he's talking about just the votes. Kerset that's a goofy answer because both votes were upgrades to join along with bigger wagons on equivalent suspects. It's not like mastina did it only after you voted her she did it only after your wagon was more viable than Bitmaps

IDK maybe Kerset slot has to die at some point but I'm getting some real false positive vibes here my dudes

I think this is where you’re expecting me to townread Alisae or at least not scumread Alisae because 1) they’re voting reundo and even rejuvenated that wagon and 2) they’ve also arrived at town!mastina and co.

Well, and also the converse - it was definitely mastina and jjh pulling Alisae in to the bloc, and if you think they were wrong to do so I would think you'd have something to say to them.

Speaking generally, I also don’t particularly think it’s a good idea to townread someone simply because they have the same views as you. scum may feel like they need to bus and participate in the echo chamber to inject themselves in the town block. at best, it’s a “save this Alisae read for later” when we have some flips, which is incidentally kind of where I’m at right now.

Oh okay this makes more sense though. If your second-to-last tier is 'punt for later' then like...yeah whatever if you have Literally One Scum Read then I guess it makes enough sense you don't care about Alisae skew yet. It's kinda sus on it's own merits to be this deep in things and say "really, I only think one player is scum, and it's the dude who is the easiest lynch by an order of magnitude" but it's not a cohesion issue then it's just good old fashioned hitting easy targets, which is sometimes scummy but sometimes the easy targets are easy for a reason ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

k fine truce contingent on next post having 1.) best next lynches on each of reundos flips and 2.) shadoweh read

UNVOTE: ofrhz

cutting off my revote in a separate post for ~power~

[hitogoroshi]

RC wanted to leave a message here

------

Just wanted to let you guys know that I can't be assed to attempt to carry y'all because most of you guys are like legit un-carriable right now.

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

Okay this is my god damn limit for assuming good faith reasons for your touchiness, there is absolutely no way this is an earnest expression of belief. Your 2 "paragon level players" don't agree with

each other

. One of them has parked on me ages ago and has subsequently dodged every single opportunity I've nudged to push my wagon or engage with me, hoping to catch me in a lie. The other one doesn't have any sort of read on me (but also no problem on you being parked on me?) and her scum pool is apparently "a bunch of PoE"? Y'all are sitting and fuming that we "can't be carried" because we're "throwing away your advice" to...do fucking *what*? Lynch hito who we're not talking about, but also hito is more of a null read and we should lynch in my PoE pool of 4, one of which we're in the process of lynching?

It is fine to not have coherent beliefs but there's just no way you all have this much internal skew and uncertainty on reads while simultaneously being frustrated we're "not listening to you" and throwing out exactly the same "You are bad players" arguments that your team apparently finds extremely offensive.

ali lets fuckin GO

VOTE: Bitmap

next post from me will be greatest hits from the hito/Bitmap dual ISO showing how little interest Bitmap actually has in pushing this read he and RC are apparently mad at everyone for not sheeping

[hitogoroshi]

yeah I know this post is long! When you are tracking inconsistent progression it has to be! Eat a god damn snack or something before you read it you baby

Spoiler: Part I: Bitmap votes hito but immediately signals uncertainty

Start with this for context:

I was thinking voting hito but Shadoweh barely posts so it makes me sad.

terrible post, for two reasons

1. What does Shadoweh posting or not have to do with what role PM I received
2. Given that you said:

Also hito, on mastina red flip, I'd probably suspect jj for protecting scum and one of the mastina fence sitters. On green flip, I'd probably suspect you the most.

Why is your instinct to switch to the person who's suspicious on a mastina

greenflip?

Aren't you

really sure

she's flipping red?

Then we have to hop out of ISO to find the motive force for Bitmap jumping on:

I'm v annoyed right now tbh so I stopped to ask my team for opinions since y'all won't do the thing that is taking up all my attention because of how obviously scummy it is. So far we've agreed everyone voting mastina is a scrub and should switch to hito or we're going to vig you. :patagun: More opinions in a bit

Sure

VOTE: Hito

Dodges my question (this will be a recurring theme) and votes when Shadoweh gives cover, without actually indicating if he agrees that mastina is town.

Then I'll hop out of ISO again to get this full exchange with Alisae:

Bit u should go back to voting mastina imo

If this wagon doesn't kick off, I'm going back.

Who is gonna reasonably support it other then u and shadoweh

I'll give it till Saturday morning before switching back.

So already sort of washing his hands of this push, it's just a place to park and he doesn't care that he's not convincing anyone new on it. And then ANOTHER post diminishing responsibility:

Bit u should go back to voting mastina imo

Actually why are you asking me to go back to voting mastina when you're not even on the mastina wagon?

because ur doing more voting mastina then you were voting hito

is my hito vote that bad?

I'm not really doing anything atm with my vote so u got a point i'll go back to mastina
VOTE: mastina

o ok... I promised I'd wait till Saturday morning though...

Okay, so that's Bitmap on hito. He's pretty much already waved the white flag and indicated how little fire he's got on this. He just wants to stay parked because he promised.

And another uncertainty post:

I feel conflicted in many things and honestly just unsure of my reads.

Again, for the folks at home, uncertainty is not at all a scum tell prima facie - but it sure is if you want to follow up by calling all of the town stupid for not agreeing with you. And it contrasts with more RC-bluster:

RC wanted me to leave a message for those of you asking for NSG that she's too good for y'all and that y'all suck.

So if we suck, that means that presumably we're not doing something we should be. Voting hito? If so, RC sure owes Bitmap a pep talk here to talk him out of the uncertainty of pushing my slot.

Another one from me:

bitmap I think I'm coming around to being Just Plain Scum - I can't defer based on his (legitimate!) grievance forever and it's been some sketchville recent posts. the swap to me when I'm his mastina-greenflip suspicion seems gross. and that timer on his vote seems like a really apparent way to proxy away responsibility for his vote, especially since alisae challenged him nigh-instantly on it and he's actually USING that proxy, boo.

Just posting these to point out how many chances Bitmap had to response quote and say I'm fulla shit if his teams position is that I'm scum and folks need to see it.

Spoiler: Part II: NSG arrives as a hito-agnostic

Now the first NSG post, totally in contrast with what Bitmap/RC are doing:

Hi. I have actual messages from

NSG

.

She said that I've been completely mistreated this game and that is not fair for me. She believes Klick and ofrhz (there's you're town read from NSG, ofrhz) are both locktown and has weaker town reads on [Shadoweh, Jingle, Kerset]. Her scum pool is right now [Menalque, Chemise, Reundo, Alisae] and thinks out of all of them, Alisae is most likely scum.

She has more things to say but wanted to know if I was okay with paraphrasing her blocks of text and I said that's fine so expect some more NSG in this thread down the road.

NSG doesn't have any read on me, but there's no indication here how she feels about RC/Bitmap disagreeing with her, and no indication from Bitmap if he's changing his mind to mirror her. Also the statement that NSG also thinks Bitmap has been completely mistreated (which sure implies that this wouldn't be the team to later say 'we have two paragon-level-players you idiots'.)

I tried to get them to address the difference directly:

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

Bitmap ignores this but does give a reads list that indicates he still suspects mastina more (implying he's just on me for his saturday promise) - this is actually pretty fucking sketch since his ostensible reason for pivoting on me was that Shadoweh told him everyone voting mastina was a scrub. Don't know how I missed that until now

[bitmap]
[Kerset, Klick, Shadoweh]
[Reundo, Jingle, ofrhz, Mena, Alisae, Chemist] <- Null
[hito, jj]
[mastina]

Then posts this:

NSG wanted to know everyone's opinions on her reads.

Which makes it even weirder that my post was missed, since it seems NSG is actively looking for people to comment on her reads and I had a direct question about one.

Okay kids put on your pay attention hats for this one it's important, this is why you needed all that context above

RC wants to add something.

He said that him and NSG are here just to lynch scum and not have dank/spicy reads. If you think the read we posted is correct, vote with us.

Bitmap is 'on me', but very uncertain and posting a lot about other things. RC is apparently dead-tunneled on me, but no reason why. NSG doesn't care about me at all. But Bitmap wants you to vote *with us*, e.g on hito. So why would RC say such a thing, which is pretty dismissive to NSG? Why the heck do any of them think you should vote hito, anyway? If Bitmap had misgivings and RC helped him get over them, why not post what that process looked like? But nope, just a weird and fake call for unity even as NSG is actively going for Alisae via Bitmap proxy and Bitmap's given no indication why her thing is less worthy of votes than this hito park that he did because Shadoweh told him to get off mastina, which he did despite still having mastina as top scum read.

Spoiler: Part III: Willful refusal to get anyone on the hito train despite the 'vote with us' post

First off, here's me re-quoting the questions out to Bitmap and NSG, just to show how easy it woulda been to get more out of me:

Also do you have any thoughts on NSG's reads? I got her to give reads based on people requesting it and it would be a slap on the face for her if people just ignored it.

I still got an open one to ya:

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

To which Bitmap responds, but only with an explicit punt:

@hito: I'll try to get to it but more focused on finishing the paraphrasing tonight.

Will also note here that there's a lot of ISO time going after Alisae and not me

I explicitly call out the skew:

why does NSG say vote "with us" when your vote is on me who she had no thoughts on either way. It must have been a source of friction, her havin me null when RC has me lockscum and I'm your number 2-3 - so it seems that NSG would be especially keen to notice that you're voting against her suspicions.

And we get two extremely funny posts to be back to back:

I feel like no one gives a shit about my posts so we're going to just play as a team in everything.

The quote clearly states that "RC wants to add something"

"We're playing as a ~~TEAM~~ now! Also, you idiot, this is about RCs reads which are totally different than NSGs reads."

I call out how bonkers 1969 is:

Are you truly, truly fucking tell me that RC wanted to add a comment that "NSG and him are here to lynch scum", and that what you should do is vote with 'us' meaning Bitmap and RC and NOT NSG, because you and NSG share no scum reads? RC wanted to extend the olive branch that was also a giant middle finger to NSG because he's saying "if you think the read we posted" [on hito, which was posted ages ago because NSG doesn't have shit to say about hito] "then you should vote with us" [on the hito wagon, which Bitmap gave himself a explicit minimum time on, and implied that that minimum time is the only reason he's on it in 1284]. That's the message that RC wanted to share with the thread?

And Bitmap responds by randomly cutting off most of the quote and then saying "yes":

Are you truly, truly fucking tell me that RC wanted to add a comment that "NSG and him are here to lynch scum"

yes

Then this:

@ofrhz

nsg wants u to unvote

This is disarming the reundo wagon, who last we heard was one of NSG's scumreads. Maybe this is because she wants Alisae more, for all she's talking about eir? But nothing here about whether NSG wants

Bitmap

to move his vote.

Should we just get GIF to read Alisae?

This isn't really related to the rest of the case but if NSG wants Alisae the most and Bitmap and RC are on hito why would you randomly phrase this as a question to the thread, when surely you want to figure out once and for all as a team whether alisae or hito is the better place to be.

And finally the coda: You've just seen how much they skew, how little they actually care to *push* the guy they're voting, how much NSG wants Alisae over me but without any indication their team is doing anything about it, etc. Given all of that, Bitmap's anger in the last few posts is extraordinarily fake, since he's mad he's not being listened to even as his team is light-years away from consensus:


NSG isn't even that certain in the first place:

NSG posting

------

@ofrhz

My scum pool is more of a PoE than a bunch of scumreads. Jingle town read is a super weak one and I don't expect or intend to sway anyone on it.

Whereas RC is apparently just disgusted we're un-carriable

RC wanted to leave a message here

------

Just wanted to let you guys know that I can't be assed to attempt to carry y'all because most of you guys are like legit un-carriable right now.

Aww, poor RC can't be assed to carry us. Read all of the shit in this post and see if you can tell me what RC wants you to do and why.

And the cherry on top:

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

This sentence came from 100% me.

We're 'throwing away their advice'. RC's advice is to vote hito (at least as far as I can tell from context), which Bitmap is doing, but reluctantly and NEVER with a desire to get anyone else on board. NSG's advice seems to be to go for Alisae, or at least she's sure posting at Alisae a lot. What the fuck is Bitmap supposed to be mad about here? What action should town be taking that they aren't? It's just fake fake fake. Putting on the effect of "we're right and you're fools" because it's been working for him even as he forgets that they haven't even figured out what the fuck their slot wants to do and Bitmap's had pretty much zero interest in using

his

vote, much less caring to direct the rest of the towns votes!

tl;dr Bitmap is scum because he's putting out transparently fake anger about not being listened to even as he puts out multiple incoherent messages and cares fucking zero about the person his votes on

[hitogoroshi]

But I, personally, will use an even different metric called:
I'll vote whoever has the most votes.
Right now, that is Reundo.
If two of them are equal in votes, I'll vote preferentially Bitmap > Kerset > Reundo, but my first priority is supporting the largest wagon on one of the three.

This is a healthy way to end the day but consider also voting Bitmap if you think my points are accurate, sometimes movement with votes creates new movements ya know

If we don't get Bitmap I'm with you on reundo, but I think the point now is to make everyone engage with what Bitmap is doing to MAKE the better lynch we want.

mastina do you just get worked up easily and start posting nonsense before rereading your own posts or something, I legit don't understand how you could say you've never called something a scumslip after those posts about Renudo's claim

normally don't like getting in these spats before the other person gets to speak but since mastina is like god damn lock town anyway, it's pretty clear from context that mastina is interpreting your question as "your scumslip *about Kerset*" instead of what it feels like you mean with "Since you have a scumslip about *any player* you're not instantly divulging, does that not also mean that I can post a townslip about *any player* without divulging" or something like that

so you're just kinda talking past each other. fwiw I'm generally cool with playing along with secret towntells d1, but I wouldn't trust one outta you what with the whole hanging around in thread too scared to push a scumread, but also I want {bitmap/reundo} a billion times more than kerset so I guess I'm playing along anyway just as a coincidence

I really don't wanna play this game anymore.

do I have a deal for you

[hitogoroshi]

Hey look reundo is still gone. Are we really going to wait another day for his second prod or comeback? We have 4 days left, if he just make one crap post right before prod, then this is basically the last thing he has to do on day 1. You took pressure away from him, which was the last tool to make use of him. Now you will look for other topics and let him go under radar. You even ensured him that you won't lynch him until you get more information, which gives him comfort to lurk even more.
VOTE: reundo

Your concern is noted but don't gotta worry, we're doing reundo if we don't get Bitmap. I'm not gonna "let him live as long as he continues to deny information"; it's just that chasing positive lies is better than really telling lack of evidence for a variety of reasons. They're probably just buddies and this is the better order to do it because I'm quite good at wagon mongering and so I want to swing at this one while it's fresh - if Bitmap gets a whole night to reset, it's much easier to just play revisionist history about this fake anger. Now's the best time there will ever be to force a reckoning on this stuff.

There are some towns where I wouldn't want to risk splitting wagons 4 days to deadline but this isn't one of them; the bloc is pretty active and coherent so we have plenty of time to try building a Bitmap push and still decamp to reundo if people think I'm off-base here.

@hito
Your idea in general can be applied but is it valid on him? I was looking bitmap ISO of his previous games and i haven't spotted his "desire to get anyone else on board". Can you find that?

When I say 'desire to get anyone else on board', I'm referring to his frustration at what we're

not

doing, which implies there's something we

should

be doing instead. For example, this one:

RC wanted to leave a message here

------

Just wanted to let you guys know that I can't be assed to attempt to carry y'all because most of you guys are like legit un-carriable right now.

We are being legit un-carriable right now. That implies that we could act differently, in a way that would make us carriable. What do you suppose that action would be? What do you suppose the 'carry' attempt is that we're ignoring? Remember, you can see that Bitmap's vote is on me and yet notice how little Bitmap wants to do with me.

Similarly:

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

We are throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players. That implies there are actions we could take to instead value the advice of the 2 paragon level players. What do you suppose those actions would be? Who is he appealing to here?

That's my point. It's not saying that Bitmap does a better job wagon-mongering at town - I don't have any Bitmap meta at all and have no clue if that's what he does. It's that Bitmap's anger we're not working with this team is totally at odds with how god damn impossible it is to even articulate what working with his team would entail.

Or, to put it another way: If Bitmap/RC/NSG all hate hito and post more than zero reasons why it's good to hate hito, it's not suspicious that they're frustrated that no one else but Shadoweh wants me. If NSGs points on Alisae get Bitmap and RC to 180 and slam that Alisae vote, it's not suspicious that they're frustrated no one else wants Alisae. The problem is how uncertain all of their actual positions are vs. how much Bitmap wants to play the frustrated card that he's not being listened to.

[hitogoroshi]

Is this determination that you would expect?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Bitmap said he's just playing as RC proxy on hito for reasons blah blah and blah. But remember, his vote on me because

Shadoweh

asked him too - even though Shadoweh was asking him in the context of "everyone who's voting mastina is bad" and he did the switch while still having mastina as his top scum read. Since then, he has literally not said one thing intimating I might be mafia. We don't even have an explicit post affirming that I'm RCs favorite kill, we just have to assume it from context that RC is saying to 'vote with us' while Bitmaps vote is on me.

So like, if there's something from RC that Bitmap is actually just sheeping and is frustrated we're not also sheeping, don't you think we would have heard literally a single thing about it since he first cast that vote 600 posts ago? And don't you think NSG would have anything at all to say about it, since she doesn't care about me either way and has gone as far to say that Alisae is 'cornered'? For us to assume this is Bitmap-town sheeping his teammates reads, we have to assume an awfully elusive hito opinion in that discord - so strong Bitmap can say nothing about it but still be frustrated no one's voting hito, and so strong that RC has written us off as un-carriable; yet also so weak that Bitmap never felt like clarifying his way off his initial uncertainty on my wagon, and so weak RC has nothing to say about it, and (this is the biggest one for me) so weak that NSG doesn't even think I'm worth

commenting

on, positive or negative. I don't think there's any sort of coherent stance on me that explains this action/passion mis-match, which is why it seems way the easiest explanation that Bitmap is just lying because complaining that he was wronged is why Klick and myself (and maybe others? I forget) gave him so much distance in the first place.

[hitogoroshi]

snack is not mandatory if you have the patience to open the spoilers and read the quotes within without burning through your glucose reserves and dipping out partway through. but if your eyeballs start drifting because there's just so much evidence...Buddy, It's Snack Time

I reccomend the chocolate dipped Chewy bars because it's just a chocolate bar but since there's granola in the middle you can kinda kid yourself that you're not just eating a candy bar

[hitogoroshi]

I believe that you're making a bunch of attribution errors. I have no desire to babysit bitmap's actions. I'm not here to puppeteer him or dictate to him what to do. I want to use my words to convince people of my reasoning. You seem to be attributing this frustration of "not listening" to all of us, however this isn't the case.

I believe if you were to ask more concise questions, it would be apparent that there really isn't as much "internal skew" as you claim.

It's not like my questions have been particularly long, but here are three short ones, sure:

1. How would you summarize RC's positions about this game?
2. Why do you think Bitmap is upset?
3. What alignment do you think I am?

[hitogoroshi]

NSG also wants to know if you can elaborate why you are townreading Alisae if not because e's "on the same page" as you?

The read went to hard town shortly after e realised I was town. Look at the realisation and the justification and the behind the scenes work that would be totally unnecessary for scum and the read progression everywhere else in the game that follows from it. That's town.

okay like I said cohesion tell on ofr is probably a false positive since her list is one scum and everyone else null or higher (plus like, Bitmap and reundo are two of the scum so we're running outta space), but my wounded pride compels me to say that this is basically the distillation of why I brought it up. seems weird to walk away from that jjh/alisae live action hugbox and end up with jjh town alisae scum, doubly so if you don't care to engage with jjh about it. I'm letting it go for now but like c'mon y'all that's a decently high percentage thing to look at right

How come NSG is doing all this engaging through you but doesn't appear to be convincing you of any reads? This all feels more like a heartfelt appeal than an attempt to place people

NSG's response: I'm working on a post relating to how our team is communicating atm but felt it was kind of weird to post but now if you ask for it I'll post it.

My response: Because sometimes I like watching the world burn in a slow but destructive fire and RC isn't in this game to create it. Also, I'm experiencing sad boi hours.

When reading Bitmap 1948 please remember what he posted not 24 hours ago

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

[hitogoroshi]

NSG case

-----------------

I just wanted to go into reasons to why I scumread Alisae. These are the three primary reasons I scumread e.

Votecount 1.27
hitogoroshi (2): Shadoweh, Bitmap

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

[hitogoroshi]

Why are you being so unnecessarily hostile to Bitmap? The whole requoting thing is good for nothing but pissing people off. It's legit upsetting to see you being so antagonizing for no reason.
(unless of course that reason is to be a jerk because you're scum, in which case good job keep it up, I sure wish other people would call you on this shit you keep doing)

I don't see how emptyquoting is hostile? I'm just tired of typing the same words over and over. I'm not addressing that to Bitmap because he's scum, I'm addressing that to everyone else hoping that they ate their snacks and will understand why this hail mary from NSG is just proving my point further.

I guess I need to type it at least once more, so - the problem is that Bitmap was spamming up fake appeals to frustration that we weren't listening to himself/RC/NSG, but in a game state where even his teammates weren't listening to each other. This bury case that's clearly intended as 'hey look, we can do content save us' is just proving the point further that Bitmap's frustration was artificial.

What do you think Bitmap's alignment is? Why do

you

think he was frustrated?

pedit oh do I see hammer? Okay cutting this and going into twilight spam mode a sec

[hitogoroshi]

disagree with Jingle; I'm gonna claim now. There's tons of positive utility (people start sorting stuff knowing I'm town now instead of wasting brain power on dead-end spec) and hardly any negative utility (only have three talismans so I can give away the third before death tonight anyway).

I'm Mahiro Fuwa, and my power is Talismans. Each night, I

must

give away one of three talismans. Can't give one to myself.

N1, I gave bulletproof to mastina. My main goal was just to dodge N1 kill, since talisman didn't turn on the night I gave it out.
I think Bitmap is pretty much just lock-scum, so my pool of likely NKs was: menal as a 'default' kill, Alisae close behind especially if NSG wants to pivot to more convenient fake suspicion. And then a tier below, myself if the team was exactly Bitmap/Shadoweh and jjh if Bitmap wanted to get saucy with the 1v1 D2, since jjh was the most influential Bitmap voter. And then I had chemist as my outside fifth of "mafia really want to dodge docs and watchers and are just picking someone who'd probably be a hard ml." I figured that mastinas flip would implicate Bitmap more than her presence, if that makes sense, so she seemed like the best intersection of "potential target N2, but unlikely target N1". I didn't really believe mastinas PR softing at all so total luck I protected her on that score. The only person I seriously considered was Jingle, because Jingle seemed the most likely player to go for a gambit handshake. I was planning to post something like:

@{recipient}: I gave you a talisman. the flavor for you only hints at what it does, but I can tell you explicitly. Given what you know about your own stuff, do you think that knowledge on how to use it correctly is worth it being public info?

and quote some sort of juicy fakeclaim that makes it seem like a worthy target to shoot on an affirmative answer - I think the one I was leaning towards is "Gives you an extra shot of x-shot abilities: when you use that extra shot I also get your results" to both add kp and explain why I would out it to thread. But in the end mastinas more likely N2 KP (presuming a Bitmap redflip) was a more compelling reason than Jingle's higher likelihood to notice a gambit handshake instead of calling me out for 'lying'.

(As an aside, I think that killing Alisae makes tons of sense for Bitmap scum and wouldn't be surprised if it was a double kill on Alisae, lmao.)

N2, I gave hated to Bitmap. I think hated is a pretty bad and anti-town modifier - even though I think Bitmap is scum I don't want to trick someone into hammering before they think they are or whatever. But my talismans are compulsory, and I had to do this to save my last one (which I'm obviously not claiming today).

Anyway it's probably just still Bitmap and y'all being silly. I'm gonna use the Bitmap case I drafted up during the night N1, because I'm proud that I used a deliberately silly tone to try to mask the fact I was also softing the BP. In the interests of integrity I'll even keep in the bit that I thought Shadoweh was third scum

Hi everyone! Don't get stupid about the fact that Bitmap was the second biggest wagon; he is just also scum. Remember that if he is scum 2 there is only one unaccounted for partner, and it is probably Shadoweh who was on neither wagon because she parked me the entire day. so arguments that Bitmap was a counterwagon are irrelevant because both wagons were probably just all town. Please do not let the two day gap distract you from the fact that Bitmap blatantly lied about his frustration to dodge accountability. If you have forgotten why Bitmap is scum, please perform the following steps:

1.) Get a snack ready at hand.
2.) Start playing some sick tunes.
2a.) If you are underprivileged and deprived of sick tunes, a copy of La Roux's Grammy award-winning debut album "La Roux" will be provided to you.
3.) Go read 1908 again.
3a.) As per clarifications to Alisae, the snack is not strictly necessary. But if you get bored or hungry partway through go ahead and eat that sucker. That's what it's there for!
4.) Also read Bitmap 1760, naked requesting a reundo unvote despite reundo being an ostensible scumread for nsg in 1425, with her response in 1930 just saying "I didn't want a hammer" (with no explanation why a hammer on a top-4 suspect would be a bad thing.)
5.) Check out the greatest hits of Bitmap doing hot and fresh buddy posting: 241, 545, 921, 925.
6.) Go read my 958 and give praise to my gut for knowing they were buddies before my conscious mind did. Great job, hitos gut!
7.) VOTE: Bitmap
8.) What the heck, go get another snack. You earned it champ!

mastina I'm ~obviously~ willing to listen on Shadoweh if you wanna get more on your reasons to go there first, but to me this feels pretty clear. Also, Jingle:

I'm saying that the people who were on neither the wagon or the counterwagon, but who were both around enough to push something and WEREN'T pushing something with legs are town

This is a silly point because 'with legs' is a function of the other townies, right? I was pushing Bitmap and Bitmap was pushing myself/Alisae. The reason my wagon 'had legs' and Bitmaps didn't is because three confirmed townies agreed with my reasoning and no one agreed with Bitmap - it's not as though if Bitmap was scum, he would have mind-controlled people on to Alisae, right?

I am happy to believe Kerset because actually I think Kerset's dayplay was really good at the end there, the fear about reundo 'getting away with it' seems like not what you'd do as buddy even if you wanted to bus. Especially when I gave him an easy out in 1763. Also I feel like the jjh feels like a pretty unlikely kill if you don't think Bitmap is scum. Also, it makes menals attempts to deepwolf instead of following the bloc with me on to Bitmap much more sensible.

[hitogoroshi]

Why would Five Guys have burgers *and* fries?

[hitogoroshi]

hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player

lmaooo mastina you are for sure thinking of some other player, I have not been forum scum since literally 2014 and I've always been infamous as a transparent player who does way better as town. Chemist was in grade school the last time I was forum scum. I did put in some good scum games on Copper, but I think the detached tone I used there was a key part of it. Good thing I am just confirmed or this would have been hilariously frustrating

I think the alien means you can put in more 1-shot power than you'd think because it causes a lot of town PRs to just not go off

[hitogoroshi]

I think at this point we may as well finish up claims because it's not like scum don't have good kill targets already, but Kerset and I should probably be silent on what our third shots are. I like Bitmap into klick into jingle into ofr fullclaim into chemist as an order.

[hitogoroshi]

I don't think ofhrz hito fullclaims are necessary, tbh.

eh I'm not gonna fight that hard about it but I just think that a heads up scum player probably does claim vig as soon as mastina claims bp. Again though this is all just playing on some absolute margins where Bitmap flips green so I don't like, really care. agree that chemist probably could have waited but hey.

I claim RC junior.

Also, don't really care about getting lynched since I'll be gone.

RC wants people after I get lynched to stop wanking each other off about how amazing you used to be and should just sheep the people who know what they're doing in 2020.

Also I'm PRETTY sure that this is just a confession?

yeah Bitmap is pretty much just saying to just get this shit over with! let's do it fam! I'm gonna go play Endless Space 2

I guess my vote might not have counted cause it was in that area tag

VOTE: Bitmap

[hitogoroshi]

actually with all these fuckin PRs and double protective there's a non-zero chance of 4 scum, in which case I demand accolades when the fourth one is Shadoweh. Tbh now I'm pulling for that result because it's probably the only way I win the survey over mastina

[hitogoroshi]

My pet theory is that ofrhz is SK here. It would make sense with all the town power. It's not that relevant for now though since sorting a third mafia is much more important.

oh this would actually make me so happy as well because COHESION TELL WOULD RIDE AGAIN

[hitogoroshi]

My pet theory is that ofrhz is SK here. It would make sense with all the town power. It's not that relevant for now though since sorting a third mafia is much more important.

oh this would actually make me so happy as well because COHESION TELL WOULD RIDE AGAIN

oh wait I looked at scum wincon again and I don't think this is possible

so yeah, could be 4 scum and it wouldn't blow my entire mind but maybe it's just a setup heavily leaning on Stoofer's Third Law to cause chaos

[hitogoroshi]

*COUGH* You couldn't wait two seconds for me could you?

Now that NSG has flipped scum in White Flag my team believes it's safe to say her presence in this game is because this is a town slot that she wanted to put her town experience into, therefore Bitmap is probably town and we should not lynch them here.

in b4 hito suggests this is posturing because we're the last two scum

I mean I think 3 is more likely than 4 so I think you are more likely wrong than scum, but like...how does this not make 1908 *more* damning, instead of less? The theory here is that NSG abandoned her own game because she wanted to play town

so

bad, and Bitmap responds by paraphrasing her reads and then ignoring the everloving shit out of them, while complaining at everyone else for ignoring them??

Like this is still the skeleton key to the whole thing y'all. Bitmap is just throwing out different AtE cards to see what happens but a Bitmap who was actually just trying to let NSG carry through him had hundred of posts to listen to her and did not. He's responded to this by saying he doesn't want to play and then wildly going off on Alisae or going on Kerset or now this thing where if we call him on this again he's going to find "the last deep wolf" himself as a convenient way to divorce himself from his past posts, but he hasn't answered the problem in 1908 because he can't.

Here's maybe the shortest way to hit the problem:

How come NSG is doing all this engaging through you but doesn't appear to be convincing you of any reads? This all feels more like a heartfelt appeal than an attempt to place people

NSG's response: I'm working on a post relating to how our team is communicating atm but felt it was kind of weird to post but now if you ask for it I'll post it.

My response: Because sometimes I like watching the world burn in a slow but destructive fire and RC isn't in this game to create it. Also, I'm experiencing sad boi hours.

If Bitmap is town because so much NSG posting means it contrasted with her scum slot, how does that square with Bitmap explicitly ignoring all of her work because of whatever the fuck "sad boi hours" means? Doubly so when Bitmap just posted now their plan was to "play telephone"? Like for christ sakes this is all on the record and the only reason I have to rephrase this shit over and over is because the people on Bitmap wagon who understood it already got murdered. (Who besides Bitmap kills jj, anyway?)

Also if I'm gonna have to keep listening about the two of four in the PoE shit I'm going to quote every comment NSG made about Menal/Reundo after posting that PoE:

I believe you have the wrong idea in regards to my scum pool being a group of players that I'm scum reading rather than a group that contains all the scum. Hope that makes sense. The caveat is that I don't think it has all of the scum and it can hold off for now. I think you have a misunderstanding of how I read Renundo. I think he's low hanging fruit and do not think that he's positively scum. When Gamma was here, I pinged him as scum due to gut and Reundo hasn't done much to change that meaning Reundo would still be in my scum pool.

I don't have any fear from Menalque after the C9++ game and would even go on about to say that his scum game is mild or at the very minimum influenced due to how other people are talking about him through scummies judging, and the most recently completed game, Guns and Roses III. Actually, I early scum lean him but during the middle of the game I thought and had a town read on him before he went and fell down in my alignment read.

Fixed below since I got it a bit wrong:

I don't have any fear from Menalque after the C9++ game and would even go on about to say that his scum game is

mild

neutral or at the very minimum influenced due to how other people are talking about him through scummies judging, and the most recently completed game, Guns and Roses III. Actually, I early scum lean him but during the middle of the game I thought and had a town read on him before he went and fell down in my alignment read.

@ofrhz

nsg wants u to unvote {off of reundo}

NSG posting

------

@ofrhz

My scum pool is more of a PoE than a bunch of scumreads. Jingle town read is a super weak one and I don't expect or intend to sway anyone on it.

To vote who, and why?

To just unvote a wagon that was at L-1 so the day doesn't end immediately.

...

Bitmap, Reundo is no longer at L-1 so I think I’ll keep my vote there for now. But what’s up?

The threat of a hammer was a possibility and I thought you were the best person to

reach out to

for that, thanks.

It is remarkably easy to put your partners in a POE if you make sure to only ever push one of the other people in it and actively dissuade a wagon on your partner in the PoE!

[hitogoroshi]

like if nothing else we're not doing a wagon today opposite the two conf towns so if someone wants me to move off of Bitmap they are going to have to tell me what sort of townie motivation explains 1908. So far it seems that people either ignore it or believe it and then get murdered

[hitogoroshi]

Hito, do you remember that time when you called us scum in general for townreading Ofrhz and not having a scum read on Mena and do you think you should be giving reads or being quiet.

Asking questions is not calling anyone scum; it's attempting to engage:

Hi. I have actual messages from

NSG

.

She said that I've been completely mistreated this game and that is not fair for me. She believes Klick and ofrhz (there's you're town read from NSG, ofrhz) are both locktown and has weaker town reads on [Shadoweh, Jingle, Kerset]. Her scum pool is right now [Menalque, Chemise, Reundo, Alisae] and thinks out of all of them, Alisae is most likely scum.

She has more things to say but wanted to know if I was okay with paraphrasing her blocks of text and I said that's fine so expect some more NSG in this thread down the road.

Once again: why vote me when I was your mastina greenflip suspicion, when you (presumably) think mastina is very likely to flip red?

Also here, have some bonus questions to drive engagement: do you disagree with my assessment above that Alisae's reaction (1341 and the huge spew that followed) was driven by guilt for non-cooperation vs. some more scummy motivation? What do you think was alisae-scum's thought process for eir stuff just now?

I also desperately need to hear how NSG got locktown for ofr from ofr pretty brazenly tooting around without any sorta scumread on anything. Especially with menalque in the scumpool.

Saying I need to hear how NSG got a hard TR on ofr while scumreading menal at a period they are both active lurking is not calling anyone scum! Actually it's cause I felt that ofr case brewing and was looking for confirm/deny evidence either way. That's not why you're scum. You are scum because you constantly go for those shitty emotional attacks even when it makes no sense with your stated position and while refusing to actually answer the questions that could defuse the situation; something you are apparently addicted to doing and continuing to do even right now.

No one on my team ever told me how to move my vote. Even if they explicitly seem like if they were in my shoes would vote for someone, it doesn't mean I'll immediately vote on the same target. NSG just wanted to dump her reads and play out this game cause she was enjoying it.

This is one perspective. But that perspective doesn't make any sense with the idea that you and NSG wanted to proxy-swap each others games. It doesn't make ANY sense with a post like:

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

That's the thing. You're giving whatever answer feels most convenient to each individual post but your holistic position is a shambles and you pretty transparently just ignore any questions people ask you trying to hone in on why. It is exhausting to talk to scum like this but I just need to keep restating it and hope eventually people read it. Maybe I should have advised two snacks.

[hitogoroshi]

Dunn thinks you correctly identified fake anger because RC is writing Bitmap's posts So you're picking up on bitmap not acting like bitmap, not bitmap being scum

But what's RC's objective writing Bitmap's posts, then? Beyond "Make sure our other teammate who is apparently more jazzed to play this game than her own is well and truly marginalized?"

My suspicion wasn't tonal - I don't have any Bitmap meta, and if anything tone was the reason I

didn't

go hard on Bitmap for a while, because I couldn't tell if it was genuine emotion. I only went on Bitmap when his emotion ended up being so malleable and self-serving.

Like, Shadoweh/Dunn/whoever, I don't think it really changes whether RC wrote them or not. We still need explanations for

why

these posts were written:

RC wants to add something.

He said that him and NSG are here just to lynch scum and not have dank/spicy reads. If you think the read we posted is correct, vote with us.

{vote on hito, NSG with absolutely no opinion on hito, ever}

RC wanted to leave a message here

------

Just wanted to let you guys know that I can't be assed to attempt to carry y'all because most of you guys are like legit un-carriable right now.

{vote on hito, RC has never tried to convince the town or apparently NSG about it}

Can't wait to be done with this game and see town throwing away the advice of 2 paragon level players because people in this game believe they're better than Paragon level yet never get suggested or come even close to it.

{vote on hito, NSG with absolutely no opinion on hito, ever}

And I actually really dislike the idea that I "seize on something I don't understand and decide it must be that way because they're scum". I'm pretty persnicketty about trying to ask questions / set up situations to clarify the reads. I spent a town of time asking Bitmap questions trying to find another explanation for his behavior, and he gleefully punted on answering over and over. How on earth am I supposed to interpret that beyond "caught liar hoping everyone else falls for the AtE?". It's not like I didn't try to figure out what these posts meant before just voting! It's not like he couldn't have given a reason at any time if he wanted to! But it's literally just a patience game where he's hoping that town will get bored with the unrefuted point and just move on. It's not a tunnel to say that I'm not going to change my mind if no one can give me a reason to, doubly so when I gave him so many chances to (which is the reason you give those chances), triply so when the only reason he's not dead already is because jjh and Alisae are dead.

I think RitCap is really easy to hate in these circumstances, I super, SUPER get why you don't like his posts. I would love to be there with you guys thinking he's the scummiest person on the planet but I'm pretty sure hollistically, with the way Team Mafia is set up, ignoring the clear towntell it gifted us would be wrong. He's really not scum, no matter how much you will him to be for having a pity party.

UT is asleep and implo wasn't 100% cool making the call on my first draft post about this, so I want to tread very very carefully to not get in to talking about the other games beyond objective knowledge. But: let's say it's in fact 100% determined what happens in a world with {bitmap green, NSG red}. That doesn't mean it's 100% determined to NEVER happen in a world with {bitmap red, NSG red}. That would depend on the context between the two games, and we're not allowed to talk about the subjective context in a different game. So it actually matters zilch to me how much NSG likes town; activity here is only a towntell if there's some reason why she would *refuse* to help a teammate who was scum, no matter what, because that's effectively what's being argued here.

[hitogoroshi]

Jingle what did you mean here

Mena's claim never comes from one of my partners. (Mechanical)

I don't see how Mena's claim has anything to do with his team; is that something you're using to generate reads somehow?

[hitogoroshi]

no one claim talisman receipt or results until we figure out order!!

my thoughts are ofrhz, kerset, klick, chemist, jingle, shadoweh, myself. with folks claiming their full role, actions, and anything that happened to them on their turn and not before. we can talk out other orders but I don't want claims slipping out until the order is resolved.

this order is not at all a reflection of reads but just sort of "the people who could warp their results the most first, and the people who couldn't take advantage of that info as scum last" plus some secret sauce since I know what I did

p.edit oh but chemist after jingle is the one read-based exception, Jingle I think chemist should always go after Kerset after how D2 went

[hitogoroshi]

Jingle just pretend nothing is guilty or inno until we walk the line of claims, right now I wanna play gunboats and see if we can just win mechanically. and not going in to detail on what does and does not guilty certain parties is a pretty useful way to go about that! go to your team PT if you wanna feel smart about your spec but keep it outta here

@chemist delicious soft but wait after ofhrz kerset and klick trust me on this.

[hitogoroshi]

I'll let you orchestrate the mechanics for now, since you have more info than I do, though.

thanks matey

pivoting to make it easier to see - unless someone wants to fight me with a good reason for an inversion, this seems like the order:

ofrhz
kerset
klick
chemist
jingle
shadoweh
hito

claim should include full role, everything you've done each night (restate if it you did already), every result you received, everything that happened to you on every night, etc.

officially no backsies - if it happened you claim it, ignorance of the law is no excuse, etc.

be totally sure not to jump the queue because some of the early people have a lot of ambiguity in their claims and if one of em is scum it helps them a lot to know what a latter-down-the-line is gonna say before they say it.

[hitogoroshi]

nope we got plenty of game time to work with and it's not worth messing with the optimal order just for rl activity concerns, imo. Assuming that 'much latter' is like, you won't be able to claim until some time tomorrow even if it's your turn. Obviously if someone is gonna go on some huge mutliday V/LA we'd have to at least think about it but otherwise I'd rather just grab for every grubby percent we can get in the mechanical game and see if we have auto

[hitogoroshi]

ofrhz - 2322, novice 1-s vig, Alisae N2, no results or anything received
kerset
klick
chemist
jingle
shadoweh
hito

claim should include full role, everything you've done each night (restate if it you did already), every result you received, everything that happened to you on every night, etc.

officially no backsies - if it happened you claim it, ignorance of the law is no excuse, etc.

Kerset, you're up

[hitogoroshi]

oh no we let the old man take charge posting present so i don't get proded :Sharkcheer:

thank you for respecting order enjoy your prod dodging until such time as it is your turn

are you watching eizouken I'm not hugely into it but enough that I'ma keep watching it and it seems like exactly your thing based off whatever that was you were doing start of D1

[hitogoroshi]

ofrhz - 2322, novice 1-s vig, Alisae N2, no results or anything received
kerset 2335, N1 FN on jjh, N2 commute, N3 visit shadoweh, received loved talisman N3
klick 2336, 2 shot doc, N2 save mastina, N3 save chemist
chemist 2333, not sure what role is called, N1 menal watch no result, N2 Kerset track no result, N3 Klick used protective action
jingle
shadoweh
hito

claim should include full role, everything you've done each night (restate if it you did already), every result you received, everything that happened to you on every night, etc.

officially no backsies - if it happened you claim it, ignorance of the law is no excuse, etc.

will give thoughts on stuff after work today so 8 ish hours

in the meantime, chemist, could you go in to a bit more detail on your ability that confirms klick used "a protective action"?

[hitogoroshi]

I check someone and am told what type of action they used

I checked Klick because of the chance of mafia no-killing

mea culpa

does the role PM include the list of all of the possible types of ability? that would be pretty useful actually

[hitogoroshi]

ofrhz - 2322, novice 1-s vig, Alisae N2, no results or anything received
kerset 2335, N1 FN on jjh, N2 commute, N3 visit shadoweh, received loved talisman N3
klick 2336, 2 shot doc, N2 save mastina, N3 save chemist
chemist 2333, not sure what role is called, N1 menal watch no vistors, N2 Kerset track no action, N3 Klick used protective action
jingle - VT no night happenings
shadoweh - VT no night happenings
hito - 2182 talisman vendor, N1 BP to mastina N2 hated to Bitmap N3 loved to Kerset

So, Hito, anything more to claim?

Just confirming loved to Kerset N3

Weird that you asked me to claim last tbh, you knew I didn't get anything last night and that I have no night actions. STill a veetee

The reason I put VT's last was to check the blind spot of Kerset permanent ascetic. If Kerset was ascetic, going so early in the order would have made it really dicey to claim talisman receipt or not even if he also had a rolecop on my third talisman (or a guess, it's a natural complement to hated). He'd have to be a really ballsy ascetic to guess he got it that early.

Let me go in the tank a bit on the night action stuff and then I'll post my thoughts for everyone. We have no bang on caught scum but some claims are more plausible than others for sure.

[hitogoroshi]

important posts

I have a soft-guilty on Menalque.

I know we were going for the dream in thinking Reundo-Bitmap-Kerset was the winning combo of three scum, and it's still fully possible that that combo is indeed the correct one, this is a soft-guilty, not a hard-guilty, because there is at least one role that Menalque could be which would explain my 'guilty' result on him and turn it from being a damning result into more of a clearing result--but since there

is

the chance I landed on the deepscum,

I want Menalque to roleclaim in his next post.

What was your action last night?

I ascetisised myself, if that’s a word

VOTE: Menalque

I successfully targeted you with an action last night

lol I received the hated modifier cause someone gave me a talisman

I received a talisman N1 which made me bulletproof.

BTW I also have a spicy post of sorts to make, but it was made before I lost my power so I need to update it with my teammates' additional feedback and remove the parts about Alisae (spoilers: I had five figures of interest and Alisae was among them so uhhhh, kinda a weird kill?), but a few immediate cliff notes:
I personally have reasonably good analysis to believe Kerset is town.
I personally feel that while Bitmap should be lynched before lylo, ideally tomorrow, that it'd be a mistake to Lynch there today (my team somewhat disagrees). Bitmap isn't out of contention for being the last scum with this game as easy mode, but the chances he's scum are only ~35% rather than 100%. Still warranting a Lynch, just not today IMO.

Oof sorry Alisae

I think I should claim anyway since it’s very likely someone stopped the scum nk. I vigged Allisae last night

Kerset I want you to claim your role and actions

I am JOAT of 3 one shot abilities. I used
n1 friendly neighbor on jjh
n2 commute
now chemist your turn to claim

I'm Miyuki Hoshizora, two-shot Doc. I holstered N1 and protected mastina N2 (leaving me with one shot left).

dinner time and then summaries I just need to have these on hand and putting them in one post is nicer than a shitload of tabs

[hitogoroshi]

wait before anything else, chemist, are you totally sure your watch distinguishes "no one visited" from "you were RB'd"?

if you are not chemist and think that you have something to say about this, you are wrong

[hitogoroshi]

I am 100% sure, yes

well RBed/rolestopped/whatever

okay so here is a question to town at large. Chemist claimed no one visited menalque and that he for sure wasn't blocked. So that leaves exactly three worlds, one of which I don't believe:

1.) Menal used Belior Zauto on mastina. But in that case, it seems totally implausible that he falls to pieces with his fakeclaim when he knows it's probably a bluff. In particular, why claim gun when you know mastina isn't a gunsmith? I ascribe like 0 percent change to world 1.
2.) Exactly jjh targeted mastina. This caused her friendly neighborizer to fail. chemist knew that mastina was "lying" but played along to see what would happen, and menal ended up doing a stupendous self own and claiming something that got him caught by chemist even though mastina was actually aliened and her 'guilty' was meaningless.
3.) chemist is just scum who decided to bury his buddy for cred and just plain forgot that he was supposed to have seen mastina

2 has that higher burden of evidence that in theory makes it less plausible, but idk, these two posts seem to support world 2 over 3:

Mastina are you faking this?

If you are I’d advise you confirm that now that Mena has claimed

What was your action last night?

I ascetisised myself, if that’s a word

VOTE: Menalque

I successfully targeted you with an action last night

2045 makes a lot of sense interpreting if chemist knows mastina didn't visit, and 2061 just seems totally nuts as a bury on your scumbuddy. So I'm inclined to say chemist is solid town, but since it DOES require speaking for jjh's action on mastina (otherwise he's 100% lying, no WAY we're in world 1 right?) I wanna shop out to town at large and see what you nerds think. We comfortable assuming jjh targeted mastina? We also have to assume that mastina has no distinguish between failed-by-block and failed-by-target-scum, but that seems to be her PM as written + it's a sensible way to nerf the role in this setup.

sorry will do other roles soonish I just have been hung up on this for a while. I glared at chemists no one visited for a while thinking we might have caught scum and then I saw 2045 in ISO and thought "eh but actually". gosh if it's world 2 that's so fucking funny actually

[hitogoroshi]

wait what that's insane. it's like a pre-block where it doesn't even count as targeted if the target isn't friendly? huh. I guess it's less funny but (even) more plausible then

[hitogoroshi]

I think so but that is loser talk for children and cowards, papa wants his win today

[hitogoroshi]

assuming 3 scum even though I still have that like ~5% paranoia 4 theory. Though it's actual more like 1% now that I'm thinking about how rude alien into mastinas role actually is, it's not even close to a cop and we got lucky that menal panicked so much even with flipped alien

Chemist

What's been confirmed:

Since he prompted Kerset to claim first, his N2 track would have been easy to fake. Similarly, his N3 "Klick used a doc" is not really confirmed since he knew Klick was a 2-shot doc who was ordered to use it.

If Chemist is scum:

2061 was a tremendous bury of a buddy.

I have chemist chat open in the post above so not really getting in to this but idk I think at this point I'm happy saying "if 2061 was scum posting we can just lose to it."

Klick

What's been confirmed:

N2 doc not confirmed because it came after mastina's BP claim. (Mastina, why you have to claim it so soon. ;_;) N3 was confirmed a 'protective' action via chemist.

If Klick is scum:

He has some sort of self-bulletproof ability or similar that reads as 'protective' to chemists radar. He ALSO has a power that makes the kill NOT show up on chemists radar when he uses it. I can't gauge the likelihood of this without knowing more exact details about the chemist-dar.

ofrhz:

What's been confirmed:

Nothing. Alisae could have been nk just as easy as vig. It happened after BP claim so she knew there'd be a compelling reason for people assuming no scum kill.

If ofrhz is scum:

She's pretty heads-up, posting 2103 just a half hour after 2101. But if she had a rolecop and knew about my talisman in advance, it's less of an impressive heads up thing because it could have been a plan to execute as soon as she saw the talisman claim.

Kerset:

What's been confirmed:

No action from track D2. Received Loved talisman D3.

If Kerset is scum:

He either no-killed N2 (with no reason to suspect track), he's a limited shot self-ascetic who used it N2 but not N3, or he's some variety of ninja.

Hito:

What's been confirmed:

All three talismans were vended.

If hito is scum:

Scum get access to Hated which allows some pretty gross plays. The N2 kill was either a scum no-kill, a double-stack on Alisae, or I shot mastina knowing it'd fail for WIFOM.

I also have a bit of an addendum theory in that I think the third mafia is kinda likely to be a rolecop. Jingle is correct that the doc would have kept a 1-shot BP alive. But I didn't vend a 1-shot BP; I vended a

night two only BP

. Teammates have raised a point that mastina claiming it so casually kind of implies what it does, so maybe this isn't a rock solid tell - but still, I feel like it's pretty ballsy to shoot someone who said "I got a bulletproof talisman and I was docced", and the most likely reason mastina got shot anyway was someone who knew it was N2 only.

This makes me think Kerset is less likely (if he's scum, the no killed is a lot less likely than the ascetic/ninja theory - but would you really be a ninja rolecop?) and ofrhz is more (the only thing she has going for her is that her vig claim would have been very proactive if she only had the half hour to plan it out).

chemist seems really fuckin solid, and depending on how chemists claim works we might get klick for another nigh-lock. I'm the tier "only scum if I gave up kp, you decide if that's on the table" + I for sure am a talisman vendor so either I have no other powers or I get a real scum helpful power and also these fuckin doodads, Kerset is on the lower tier of "only scum if he gave up kp OR happens to be ninja/ascetic", and ofrhz is "absolutely nothing confirming unless you think ofrhz and her team never think of this play"

Weighing this against the VTs: don't think I want Shadoweh today. Scum-Shadoweh has every incentive to hard defend Bitmap but I don't think by advocating no-lynch instead, that seems really town indicative for me right now. Could be Jingle I guess, but he got pretty lackadaisical AND interested in mechanical solving start of D3, which to me seems like the mark of an earnest townie.

I think my kill order is ofrhz, Kerset, Jingle right now. But also want to see how folks digest this because that could adjust my orientation a lot.

[hitogoroshi]

To be clear, I am mostly looking for alternative perspectives because I'm coming in to this with the bias of "if it turns out that I brought up cohesion tell AGAIN and everyone told me I was being silly AGAIN and it was right AGAIN then I will be so goddamn smug you will be able to see it from space." So maybe I can't evaluate this super-soberly.

[hitogoroshi]

JOATS and inventors, did you guys all have compulsory, night-specific actions?

Like n1 you *have* to use your watch, n2 you *have* to whatever

I got to choose which talisman which night but was compulsory to use one each night. Which I guess means as scum my hated wouldn't 100% break the game, but it'd still be pretty rude

[hitogoroshi]

What’s kp? Kill power?

I think kill...pressure? But tbh I don't know, picked it up from Liars Club. Just as in, if hito is scum 100% there could have been one more dead body and wasn't. Obviously I'm not thinking about it that hard because I am in fact town but it just seemed correct to put my objective evidence alongside everyone elses

Rolecop is a pretty shitty role on its own though. It makes thematic sense for the scumteam to be roleblocker + roleblock/doc immune + track immune/possibly a rolecop? Just glancing at the claims even if one is fake we all agree town seems hella stacked for the last dude to have effectively no role to speak of, right?

I said that Klick was the most likely other person I'd want to push and Dunn said no-lynching was better then accidentally killing the doctor. Which I GUESS is true, the alternative is annoying though. Are you saying the Hated was permenant btw, is the loved perma too? That seems suspiciously unlikely.

I mean thinking more about what roleblock and alien does to mastinas role it seems less impossible now. it has definitive innos but very non-definitive guilties.

No all three talisman are one day/night only. Bitmap outed the Hated was one day which I guess is another tick against "the scum must have had rolecop" - they could have just assumed "as the Hated was one day, so too must the BP be only one night".

Who do you think the mafia is?

I mean... We absolutely check Kerset for asceticism today, because why wouldn't we?

BP doesn't show up to followers, explicitly. It only sees active use powers. Also, scum doctor for a 1 shot vig is like the stupidest design choice ever.

Ideally the lynch order FMPOV would be literally everyone else. Is there any reason you dropped Shadow from your lynch consideration post hito? Was there a required order for your talismans? Was talisman use compulsive?

VOTE: Kerset

Trying to prove/disprove loved, we should be 4 to lynch and Kerset/Klick/Chem can be trusted not to hammer. The rest of us can go ahead and vote here and then unvote when we know there isn't a fakeclaim of Loved receipt.

I guess that's fair, the way I did the claim I think there's like zero chance but why not check the blind spot? I do insist that we trust Kerset specifically with the 'hammer'.

VOTE: Kerset

I guess dropping Shadoweh wasn't really indicative of anything besides 'don't feel like lynching right this second'; obviously plenty of chance to reevaluate. No order but use of any talisman was compulsive.

Putting aside these Kerset votes which are strictly to check Loved, who do you think is the best lynch today?

[hitogoroshi]

once again no real time until tonight after work, but yes sorry it's not "n2 bulletproof" it's "night-one-more-than-the-night-I-gave-it-to-you bulletproof".

[hitogoroshi]

Kerset commuting as last scum is another potential reason for the missing N2 kill.

Why on earth does Kerset choose that night to do it, though? Unless I'm missing something, there was no reason to suspect that N2 would be watched in a way following nights wouldn't be. I've been operating under the theory that Kerset scum exactly means ninja/ascetic and he shot Alisae or mastina N2. Do you really think Kerset has a role that makes him unable to shoot, and that he used it N2 knowing he was punting on a kill?

FTR I am also salty because you lynched bitmap and didn't listen to me, and hearing 'scum shadoweh had lots of reasons' instead of hito acknowledging my reasoning for clearing him is annoying.

I mean, it's not denying that town-Shadoweh would have a valid reason to defend Bitmap to say that scum-Shadoweh also had an incentive to defend Bitmap. So I was just noting that Bitmap defense doesn't move the needle for me in either direction, but the fact that you proposed no-lynch instead of an alt-lynch does because that's an actually costly signal for scum to send.

If its not Jingle then I'm terribly concerned for how this is going to go tbh.

I thought you were kinda clearing Jingle circa 2364:

Rolecop is a pretty shitty role on its own though. It makes thematic sense for the scumteam to be roleblocker + roleblock/doc immune + track immune/possibly a rolecop? Just glancing at the claims even if one is fake we all agree town seems hella stacked for the last dude to have effectively no role to speak of, right?

I guess, where do you sit right now on the power balance spectrum? If Jingle is scum and all of this town power is legit, what kinda role from him makes it work in your eyes?

[hitogoroshi]

That post has nothing to do with Jingle?

The connection to Jingle is just me trying to feel out how stacked you feel the third scum role needs to be for every town PR to be telling the truth. People seem to be settling on different ends of the spectrum and it's pretty relevant for sorting the VT slots, so I sort of want a townie gestalt on where we sit re: "I can imagine a scum big enough that all PRs are town" vs "I think it's extremely likely one of the town PRs is lying".

So I'm not going to pretend to have much understanding of the setup/ability to get reads out of it. My instinct is that Kerset/Chem's PRs make little sense as town together, and also that Kerset's abilities in isolation all look super scummy. But I don't put much weight into that personally.

What do you think about Kerset's reundo hop? To me, it seems like a significantly less plausible bus than ofrhz's. Ofr clearly used it as a place to sit. But Kerset had his biggest surge as a

reaction

to my Bitmap wagon, arguing that reundo was the one getting away. Reading the 1913 to 1916 sequence just makes it hard for me to think bus.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh, right, still on Kerset.

UNVOTE:

I thought about e’s push on reundo but two things made me think e was scum in spite of that:
- e jumped off reundo for the bitmap wagon
- and voted Reundo because e thought reundo was going to flip town which didn’t really make sense to me

The most important factor was probably because I felt strongly about the bitmap slot being town after the d2 flip and nsg was scumreading e for like the same reasons that had me put alisae low on my tier list to begin with.

What did you think about jjh/mastinas reads? I mean, whatever degree the flip made you feel better about Bitmap-town, surely you felt

even more better

about mastina town from D2, right?

But like, seriously, why does scumofhrz kill Ali? Ali is tunneled on bitmap and was the one to start bitmap as counter to Reundo again. Es basically a free mislynch.

This just isn't true at all. I started Bitmap, jjh/Alisae/mastina came over because of me, and then Alisae re-defected back to reundo because menal argued eir back on it. Alisae was pretty strongly town from that interaction and would have been a real stretch as a mislynch, especially with mastina/myself still alive.

Though you raise a good point w/r/t my rolecop theory that I'm probably a more sensible kill for scum-masquerading-as-vig than Alisae if I got copped N1. So I should probably lower that prior downward.

Bonus points: Kerset is arguing BOTH that ofhrz is fakeclaiming vig as scum and that they commuted to duck a vig kill, with the two of them having roughly the same information available. Faking a vig as scum when there is a vig is literally suicide but apparently at that point it was reasonable to assume there WAS a vig.

This is a really silly point because as scum you can wait and see if there was a kill besides your own before deciding to claim. Ofrhz can pick Alisae to dodge protection/watch on mastina and then decide "Hey, if there's an indication that mastina got protected, I have an explanation for why I'd pick Alisae so I can fakeclaim vig". But it's not like ofrhz *has* to claim vig if there are two kills that night.

Out of time now but self-reminder to look in to jjh kill. It seemed pretty indicative of Bitmap-scum so know that I know it's not that, worth a second glance.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm pretty happy with Kerset > Jingle > Shadow as a solve, to be honest.

Talk me down from this one?

What do you think about Kerset's reundo hop? To me, it seems like a significantly less plausible bus than ofrhz's. Ofr clearly used it as a place to sit. But Kerset had his biggest surge as a

reaction

to my Bitmap wagon, arguing that reundo was the one getting away. Reading the 1913 to 1916 sequence just makes it hard for me to think bus.

It's just really hard for me to be excited about Kerset as the first rn.

We have a near guarantee there's no sk, because the scum achieve wincon when all MAARF members are dead and at least one scum is alive. It would have to either be an SK who still counts as a MAARF member for purposes of wincon, or an sk that can simultaneously win with scum. Both those options kinda feel beyond the pale for a game like this.

[hitogoroshi]

Fwiw Jingle this is why I want to lynch by order of most-to least-likely scum. I don't trust town to not reevaluate. I also think Shadow has the least potential to swing someone into making a hero call. If we're basically agreed on that three then we should focus on either ending the game before we get cold feet or keeping town on-course.

But also, the more we shout at each other and try to upset each other, the more I just want to end this game/my participation in it ASAP.

I mean, obviously we want to figuring stuff out with the maximal number of living townies, but seeing how much or little people are hustling in to figuring out the solve is useful info itself, right? So it's worth at least pretending you'll let a little bit of flex in to ~~the solve~~ just because it's one more razor for townies to act differently than scum. (Hito says, with very little time until like...Wednesday.)

Though having said that, I feel like Jingle's rabid defense of the sanctity of ~~the solve~~ means it's less likely to be a bluff that he put himself in it.

Klick scum conceits: unlikely kill on mastina, mafia protective with only 1shot vig for town - unlikely.

Ofhrz scum conceits: unlikely kill on mastina, alisae kill over any other kill N2, 4 town protectives for just the scumkill - unlikely.

Kerset scum conceits: unlikely kill on mastina, commute over kill n2.

Hito scum conceits: gave bp to mastina instead of mena when neither was likely to be shot.

Chem scum conceits: unlikely mastina kill, knows action failed on kers n2, corroborated klick claim n3. Around for mena guilty, didn’t share that mena wasn’t successfully targeted by mastina.

Jingle/Shadoweh: setup balance.

Klick scum is even more unlikely than that because he needs to have some sort of funky half-ninja ability that let chemist see the protect and not the kill.

I'm also really not grokking the idea that mastina kill is very unlikely for klick/ofr/kerset/chem, but it's more likely for me/you/shadoweh. What's the logic there?

[hitogoroshi]

yeah sorry I'm just sick as a dog. knew I'd be busy for time commitments but didn't know I'd also be hacking up snot while I was doin it.

In general I think the evidence does kinda point to ofr, but I'm just still not understanding Jingle's reasons to clear and I think Jingle is town and I don't know if it's because his reasoning is wrong or if it's just Nyquil brain.

but re: Shadoweh - as far as I know Jingle is basically just voting you for PoE the same reason you're suspecting ofr. I mean you've got a post saying a.) you suspect ofr not because she is scum, but because no one else makes sense and b.) jingle should have a reason to suspect you beyond just not wanting to vote everyone else. Like if it's just poe vs poe the relevant thing is how clear ofr is yeah?

also chemist where's your heart at these days, knowing that the chance of a SK is close to zero on wincon

[hitogoroshi]

Busy today, will post tomorrow

also remember per penguin rules it needs to be a substantive post, please don't get repped out

[hitogoroshi]

for what it's worth, Gamma also likes ofr over shadow right now (at least from ISOing ofr and just a little bit of shadow and mena - obviously I haven't really been asking for much help this game). he thinks that the existence of a strongman was enough for scum to infer protection and cook up the fakeclaim in advance, and he thinks that ofr's read on mena feels like the play when scums buddies get TR'd, going along without saying anything why and hoping it all just works out. He also thinks menas reads fit ofr-scum more than shadow-scum.

thats all you get I am so god damn man flu it's not even funny

[hitogoroshi]

Am I the only one who read hitos post and was like... why is Hito sheeping dead scum that got replaced?

Gamma wants me to say that, as he is now the only currently living Gamma and the only town Gamma, your forgetting is unacceptable. Repent!

Is there any proof that hito is aware what his talisman does? I was looking at the order of events and it seems that each receiver claimed talisman effects before hito said anything about it.

2182 has the D2 crumb I wanted to use D2 and didn't because I never got a chance to post. So not a "proof" per se because mastina went ahead and snapped to claiming the bp D3 before I posted (;_;), but if it was a fake it was a fake on three hours notice. It also would have been a pretty risky gambit to say I used hated just to save my last N3 talisman if I actually had no clue what the N3 talisman was going to be.

I just think your solve is giving you mental damage Jingle, especially when you're jamming your own lynch in there. My team puts a lot of stock in you being town so it bothers me that you might be okay with laying down and dying. This game isn't solved and we can't afford to just let things happen. Besides, even if we're horribly wrong it probably will help more to have two mechanical roles verified rather then seeing two VT flips in a row.

If Kerset is scum one of the following is the truth:

Kerset is a compulsive scum commuter who did not immediately use the shot after the first buddy lynch.

Kerset is a non compulsive scum commuter who chose to commute instead of kill after back to back scum lynches.

Kerset is a third blocking role who targeted chem on n2.

All of those are incredibly unlikely. Kerset is town. (As painful as that sentence is.)

Am I missing some reason why Kerset couldn't just be an n-shot ascetic?

VOTE: Shadoweh

I guess

I think we should just hammer soon because I don't see any new discussion going on

Actually, I feel like this day has been reasonably productive (to the extent I've been plugged in which I freely admit is not 100% right now). If nothing else, seeing who's looking to townsolve and who isn't might be really useful if we miss our first hit here.

What were those mech thoughts you wanted to dump? Would love to feel lock about one more townie.

[hitogoroshi]

Kerset bitmap klick
Hito reundo ?

There's also this though which I do think deserves at least a little bit of looking at

Self-serving of me to bring up but Alisae followed that up by speculating on the teams and reversed eir opinion:

Hito Reundo ?
Who is the ?
well

Hito pushed ofhrz with a weak push and if ofhrz was scum with hito, it would be really good to try and push this harder. Instead he drops it and looks for something else. Its not ofhrz
Hito pushes Bitmap and Bitmap would distance from Hito here instead of focusing on me. Its not Bitmap.
Hito's first real vote from memory is Chemist, and that doesn't seem to be a bus, so we can cross this off the list. Its not chemiboi
I don't think Hito can be paired with Shadoweh, I like Shadoweh individually as straight up town but I don't think hito and shadoweh could be described as distancing, atleast I don't think the intentions of their interactions would be to distance. Its not Shadoweh.
Hito's actions conflict with Kersets just based on the last few pages.
I feel like if Klick was scum with Hito, he would be doing something else at this moment. Its not Klick
And I'm not about to go pointing fingers at my townblock

A team cannot reasonably work, Hito Reundo ? is not a team that can work in my mind.

Alisae had me locktown already and was gonna adjust me even more green on reundo red. So if I was scum killing Alisae I think it would have had to be because I saw a PR soft or something; it'd be just about the worst possible kill for me dayplay wise.

UNVOTE: Shadoweh

hito when you're around I wanna ask you a couple questions

I can do psuedo-live for at least a couple of hours here. Until I take Nyquil basically.

1 shot ascetic makes less sense than commuter from the standpoint of scum utility.

I doubt that ofhrz is scum with a vig, let alone one who is capable of killing twice in one night by themselves. That’s an insane amount of scum power and combining that with a strongman and a roleblock would be overkill for the amount of town power. By a lot. If she’s scum she almost certainly shot Ali instead of mastina.

I guess, why does x-shot ascetic make less sense than commuter for scum utility? It seems a little better than commuter (because you can kill), for a scum team that you think was a little weak.

I'm not saying I'm dead to rights it's Kerset or anything - his play today has kinda been scummy but I still really like his end of day 1 progression - but I'm just not seeing where the mechanical clear is coming from.

ofrhz claimed after Klick/hito claimed to protect mastina right

As far as I remember she claimed between me and mastina. She definitely knew about mastinas bulletproof talisman but not that I had been the one to vend it, I think.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay yeah

You already answered my first question, so can I get an explanation for all of your targets?

2182 goes in to super gory detail of my BP target, but the cliff notes are: since bulletproof was the only really useful talisman, I really wanted to try to make it work, so my biggest goal was dodging N1 kill on the person I targeted. The secondary goal was trying to get someone who *would be shot* N2. I had menal and Alisae as the two who came off looking the best from the reundo wagon and figured they were the 'default' kills. I also had Bitmap as nigh-lock scum, so my kill pool also included jjh, who I figured Bitmap would kill if he wanted to force a 1v1 reckoning with me - jjh was probably the most influential player to be firmly on my side. And then I had myself as a potential kill from exactly Bitmap/Shadoweh team, but I can't self-vend so that didn't matter.

Looking outside of that pool, mastina seemed the most likely to live N1 but die N2, as someone anti-Bitmap but not particularly influential -so her flip is still bad for Bitmap but her presence can be worked around. I also considered Jingle because it seemed like he would go for a gambit handshake more than mastina would, but my team liked the fact that mastina was a more likely N2 kill on the face of it and we figured we'd just not do the gambit. Ended up getting really lucky with her being a PR, but that wasn't a targeting factor.

N2 I picked Bitmap just because Hated is a scummy power and I wanted to use it on a day when it would be the least disruptive + give a good reason to claim N2 and maybe draw NK out of fear of talisman 3. Tbh I also kind of figured the game was over when Bitmap flipped and all of my plans to handle N3+ were like, margin-playing as far as I was concerned. (Now you know why I bother to play margins!)

N3 I wanted to just confirm Kerset wasn't a permanent ascetic. I figured it gives us useful info and didn't see any other way that Loved gives any usable info - the "confirmable" talisman aspect is pretty irrelevant when two conf towns have confirmed they got the talismans already.

[hitogoroshi]

Had a night class so more tomorrow, but:

chemists clear is lock enough that imo there's not much to read in to klick vs chem dying
Kerset I think has the most implausible role for scum, and the most clearing D1 behavior, but his behavior D4 was the most scum indicative I think
Jingle it all depends on his sincerity of his role clears - his aggressive caring about the solve is his biggest selling point but who knows how good he'd be at rat mode reversal
Shadoweh has tremendous indecision that's hard to parse because it makes sense for sensitive townie or scum just hoping to flail for time and make it out of the wreckage

Ideally I'd like to get a never buddy post from reundo/menal iso but menal feels good enough that I'm not sure he'd drop one

[hitogoroshi]

oh I guess now that we know the vig was real it means it's for sure no-kill, mastina kill, or double stack on alisae

after work let me dig in to that a bit and see if it helps anything. Obviously PoE is already giving us a good shot chem but I'd really like to feel good about todays lynch being the one, I'm getting close to being healthy again and want to be a tryhard

[hitogoroshi]

my interest in this game is sorta winding down honestly but go off

which of me/kerset would you vote if whichever of jingle/shadoweh we didn’t lynch got nightkilled for some reason?

Kerset every time; unless someone pulls up some damning quote I have zero interest in winding back your clear. Menal doesn't die without your claim precluding the chance of alien and if that was a bus, whatever man.

I am mostly curios about shadoweh meta read. How typical for her is to be so nonuseful and lazy.

anyone?

I don't have Shadoweh meta, but my team has pretty consistently said they could see either way on her which I guess is at least an endorsement that her play is not totally outside town range or anything.

I am not being nonuseful or lazy ._. I have contributed plenty of thoughts, I'm simply regretting some of them right now.
I'm not even sure I want to be the one forced to be here making a choice tomorrow if we're wrong again.

Well, then let's end it today. Who's the mafia?

--

NK wise, there's a chance that mastina was just killed for confirm without anything deeper than that. If kill was mastina and reads-based, that implicates Shadoweh because mastina like Kerset and Jingle on D3. If kill was Alisae, Alisae liked Kerset on reundo-red so a bit clearing for him.

Actually, let me try opening the floor - everyone, who do you think you kill if you're scum N2? (For my part, I think hito scum smells pretty obvious watcher/doctor bait on mastina, and shoots chemist.)

[hitogoroshi]

Chemist did claim to have a role with results on d2. Perhaps mastina was attacked because scum expected protection to be on chem.

I don't think that either mastina or alisae was attacked sue to personal reasons.

Still people like jingle have their own way of thinking, his theory could apply to himself.

There are no signs of personal reasons and she didn't reveal to have role like you did. She wasn't very townreaded.

I guess this isn't really a big thing, since ofr is now conf town and missed it as well, but scum could have expected Alisae to be townread a lot more heavily after eir swap on reundo; e committed in a really obvious and public way to Bitmap before defecting and making reundo solid (when otherwise it really could have been Bitmap).

[hitogoroshi]

If you’re worried tho then the other ability I have begins with “a” and ends in “scetic”

If you’re worried tho then the other ability I have begins with “a” and ends in “scetic”

Are you ascetic or an asceticizer or whatever it’s called

El segundo amigo

What was your action last night?

I ascetisised myself, if that’s a word

does this clear kerset in y'all's eyes

y/n

I think it does because of how badly he misunderstands the ascetic situation, and if he gets believed (somehow) and kerset gets outed as commuter/ascetic it's a super bad look for kerset

Gamma thinks it's pretty town indicative for Kerset, yeah. I kinda think we have to be careful putting much intent on menal there - feels like Menal with his head on straight just does the 1-shot vig, then in response to mastina's fullclaim says "Well uhh clearly I was alien'd lmao". The fact that he didn't do that means he was just panicking and not thinking about it, so whatever he did instead shouldn't be interpreted through the lens of optimal play, yeah?

But Gamma also thinks that this post is pretty unlikely to come from scum:

Self-reflections that maybe your side is also wrong in the way other is.

And that's something I'm more inclined to agree with.

Idk I just hate the feeling that Shadoweh/Jingle is kinda sleepwalking but I sure don't feel like chemist or Kerset are mafia so maybe it's fine.

[hitogoroshi]

I am mostly curios about shadoweh meta read. How typical for her is to be so nonuseful and lazy.

anyone?

Where did you end up falling on this one, Kerset? The fact you think there's nothing to talk about means you must have come to some sort of a conclusion on Shadoweh.

[hitogoroshi]

man, maybe I'm just being the boring stall boy I get it. But no one really has a great reason on Jingle but PoE, and if it's not Jingle then either chem or I has a really gross 3p lylo ahead trying to index of anything recent from Kerset or Shadoweh.

Kerset, if we were no help on Shadoweh, what *do* you suppose would help?

Chem, what changed to make you TR shadoweh over Jingle?

Also, as an open forum question...do we really think Shadoweh or Jingle kill jjh? Just kinda scrolling through his ISO, it is awfully indicative of Kerset over those two in terms of priority.

[hitogoroshi]

It is not about delaying it, it is about frequency of your posts.

Yeah this is fair, since the illness my rhythm has been all kinds of messed up and it's been hell to focus. I'm mostly better now but have an outrageous sleep deficit so I spend a lot of time kinda...starting at walls.

Jingle had no valid kill this night. You can iterate thought every possible kill and you will always think that he had no reason to kill person x.
Shadoweh would most likely kill you but you just made counterwagon to reundo at the end of the day.
Menaq, who was also alive in this period of time was only scumreaded by me and i was mislynch target rather then kill possibility.
If scum had no real threats then i guess frame kill makes the most sense as it removes public townread.

That's a good point, if no one was really on Jingle's case, it would make more sense that scum-Jingle kills someone who TR's him because there's no other option? I guess the more productive way to think about it is "is there a person whom I think Kerset/Jingle/Shadoweh would surely kill

over

Jingle?" Which is something I gotta hit the bricks for but curious if anyone else has anything (self meta counts too!)

TBH I'm putting this off because sometimes my team scares me with what they say. I said "so people really seem to want to lynch Jingle" and they all yelled NOOOOOOO like I just suggested killing the pope.

So I have a message from the self labeled "inconspicious slave of the MariaR team". (which is supa, I know its hard to tell since that describes all of us). He thinks we need a dynamic shift or we're going to lose because we're drowning in confirmation bias. Basically he really hates how NAR motivated we all are and agrees with Hito that scum is just trying to survive the wreckage. We basically haven't progressed from Day 2's action vortex.

He didn't mention it in these notes he gave me actually but he also pointed out for Jingle and Mena to be scum together they both have to have sat on Renudo as an omegabus and typically scum don't vote together out of principle.

If I were to put a vote down r/n I would probably put it on Kerset. Supa thinks the way mena treated Chemist was pretty weird, I just don't know if I could seriously suggest going that route today.

Why *aren't* you to put a vote down if you want a dynamic shift? What are you hoping does create the dynamic shift?

Me: chemist might be scum
chemist: wow i don't like this post
:V

Do you think chemist might be scum? You actually said that supa thinks the way mena treated him is 'weird', but that you couldn't seriously suggest going that route, which leaves it really ambigious whether you can't seriously suggest it because

you don't believe it

vs

you don't think we could be made to believe it

.

[hitogoroshi]

Jingle has settle on, chemist even that got bored is still interactive.
Shadow & hito. No matter what are you trying to achieve, you won't get anywhere with one post per day. Maybe you should ask selected players to meet you at specific hour. With 3 days left you can arrange that or stay this way and finish this in 3 posts...

yeah, that's a good point. I'll be around tomorrow evening PST. I'm picking a friend up from the airport who's staying here but they're on eastern time flying from Canada so I imagine they'll fall asleep pretty early.

but also this post makes me feel a lot better about Kerset tbh!

I'm hestitant to read too much into menal-posting because he seems to be good at scum, but I did find one pretty buddy-indicative post on him re: Shadoweh

I was strongly agreeing on shadoweh last time I was here but I don’t think I found either of the other two particularly towny

Just don't like the phrasing "I was strongly agreeing last time I was here" because it's sort of making sure to explictly punt the read to what he can be objectively shown to have said earlier, which does seem like what you do with the reads you'd rather not need to dwell on.

Actually there was a Shadoweh vote here for a bit, but to me the one post I really have trouble getting past is:

Maybe this is because I've been dealing with you scumreading me all week hito but I think you seize on something you don't understand and decide it must be that way because they're scum <<
(it would be fair for you to call me a hypocrite for saying this since I basically did it to you back)

I think RitCap is really easy to hate in these circumstances, I super, SUPER get why you don't like his posts. I would love to be there with you guys thinking he's the scummiest person on the planet but I'm pretty sure hollistically, with the way Team Mafia is set up, ignoring the clear towntell it gifted us would be wrong. He's really not scum, no matter how much you will him to be for having a pity party.

I certainly didn't say we don't have scumreads. Dunn just thinks its more worth not lynching to let them work then accidentally lynching a real one because we're so stacked.

I like killing Shadoweh over Jingle in most respects but I just think this would be a really weird post for scum to make. It's just kinda clearing Bitmap with no effort to do anything else. I mean obviously if Shadoweh is scum she's lazy scum so it's not impossible that she just kinda acted without motivation, but kicking the towntell to be due to "the way Team Mafia is set up" seems like not what you'd do as scum, yeah? You'd wanna make it more personal? Talk to me about this one Jingle because I think it's my main roadblock on Shadoweh at this point

[hitogoroshi]

As scum I can be -extremely- lazy but I never have trouble actually voting people.
If I were scum I would have no reason not to just drop a Jingle vote when he was at 2 votes earlier and peace tf out.

Any relevant meta for me to look at?

Gamma would like to note that he also feels good about Shadoweh/Jingle having the last scum in it, and he believes in everyone to show up tomorrow evening if folks are gonna miss today to talk out who's the last scum, so we don't panic in 3p lylo.

I think I lean a little more Jingle than Shadoweh but I want to hear this thoughts on this most recent stuff + it would be nice to livechat with Gamma if it works out. I'm touring San Jose with my friend but we'll be back at like...8 or 9 PST?

[hitogoroshi]

I’m probably just gonna drop a vote soon because a nolynch is by far the worst situation

yeah it stresses me less feeling better about Kerset. I'll be around tomorrow to talk stuff out but I'll make sure when I go to bed I'm voting whoever you're voting

[hitogoroshi]

I think that Kerset working Jingle this hard at this late hour is probably a decent town indicator.

2687 is annoying because in one light I can see it as townie frustration (the suggestion of killing Shadoweh because Jingle/Kerset/{hito/chem} is the most likely way to catch Kerset scum), but then I see that "I'm talking to a wall" and having a lot of trouble squaring that against Shadoweh saying she wants 'inner clarity' more than wagon mongering.

I guess regardless, I'm hammering Shadoweh when I go to bed in ~an hour to make sure we don't NL. Get your last thoughts in if you're got something to say in case this is a miss, and if this is a hit thank god its over.

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: Shadoweh