Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Lukewarm]

I don't think Ole Gunnar Weebskjær would voluntarily put himself in a neighbourhood with me

But would you force him to be in there with you?

[Lukewarm]

I don't think Ole Gunnar Weebskjær would voluntarily put himself in a neighbourhood with me

But would you force him to be in there with you?

Absolutely

Welp, problem solved

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Lukewarm]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

[Lukewarm]

I have the most posts you all need to step up your activity

This is in deed a troubling sign.

[Lukewarm]

Marci is locktown, she promised me she is town this game

[Lukewarm]

Marci is locktown, she promised me she is town this game

i remember promising this, but like ur confusing me! you looked like u didn't know if you could trust me earlier.

This was a joke

Before we signed up together for this game, in the post game chat of the last game, I said "As long as you promise to be on my team next time, and not try to trick me like in this game"

[Lukewarm]

I think we also have to consider that if we hit scum first or second in the 3p hood, the remaining player(s) become unremovable conftown. From that perspective I could imagine a scum!Bingle figuring conftown!NM or conftown!nEE doing less damage

I am not sure what you mean when you say they would be "unremovable conftown."

If we hit a mafia from the 3p neighborhood, we will have a confirmed town Day 2, but if we don't get the mafia until our second shot, wouldn't the other mafia automatically nightkill the last townie from the 3 people neighborhood?

[Lukewarm]

I also have a light scumread on Lukewarm for the casual/flippant way he voted, ignoring N_M's 41, and a general vibe I get that he's buddying up to marcistar both here and in our neighborhood

Getting scumread for a casting a RVS vote on the first page of the thread. smh.

Although, I will admit that I am 100% buddying up to Marci, because the only reason I signed up for this game is because she asked me to sign up with her

[Lukewarm]

Eliminating down the 3p hood gives us at worst 3p ELo in the other group.. I'd sooner take that than the 1/6 chance for instawin. Unless someone starts jumping up and down and outs themselves as scum.

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

Parrot in the thread

oop, somehow missed your original comment lol

But I mean, there are really only 2 ways to approach the game: vote someone in the 6 person neighborhood on Day 1 or vote someone in the 3 person neighborhood. So there is bound to be overlap in which way people are leaning.

Personally, I am curious why some people are suggesting to vote from the 6 person neighborhood instead? Is it just for the chance at a Day 1 endgame win? Or am I missing some other benefit to voting there.

[Lukewarm]

Getting scumread for a casting a RVS vote on the first page of the thread. smh.

I've caught scum on page 1 RVS votes before, this isn't even the only time just the first I remembered

Can you really be upset with my RVS vote, when I managed to get a scum claim out of it?

Spoiler:

I don't think Ole Gunnar Weebskjær would voluntarily put himself in a neighbourhood with me

But would you force him to be in there with you?

Absolutely

Welp, problem solved

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Welp, you got me

Spoiler:

if people keep taking my jokes as me being 100% serious, I might cry

[Lukewarm]

In fact i think that's a pretty good way to get valuable info.
Players in the 3p should say their reads on the 6p group while the 6p players do the opposite.

Can I get a raincheck until after Bingle joins the thread. So far I have him down as "hard to read"

[Lukewarm]

I'm not taking your jokes as 100% serious, but I do believe scum tend to use jokes in an attempt to be charismatic or to deflect scrutiny of their votes or scumreads. If you're town you'll be better served by not fixating on an early scumread on you and instead continuing to hunt the real mafias.

It's also odd to say I was "upset" with your RVS vote

.... The spoiler was supposed to let you know that that post was also a joke, but here you are taking it serious as well.

Okay, time to put my serious hat on, no more jokes allowed.

[Lukewarm]

@Lukewarm

Knock knock

who's there?

[Lukewarm]

GL what do you think about what i've just said?

I am thinking about it, but I am still trying to figure out if I agree with it or not. Letting it mull over in my brain.

[Lukewarm]

GL stands for GuiltyLion so i really asked him.
You can answer too, but just for your information.

I know, but I had also just posted "I am curious why some people are suggesting to vote from the 6 person neighborhood instead? Is it just for the chance at a Day 1 endgame win? Or am I missing some other benefit to voting there."

So was happy to see / wanted to acknowledge your reasoning.

[Lukewarm]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

[Lukewarm]

Also, pooky is probably scum.

Why?

Because eliminating pooky means town wins, duh.

From my understanding, that has a 100% win rate in this set up

[Lukewarm]

What other substance am I supposed to have already put into the thread?

Imo, the first order of business was figuring out which neighborhood we are going to be voting in today, so that is the conversation I have been engaging with the most so far. At this point, I think I am pretty settled on saying that we should vote from the 6p neighborhood.


At this point, I am really waiting for more content from Dunnstral, Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, and marcistar before I can really get started with my new goal of figuring out who we should vote for today.

The only read I actually have so far is a town read on Marci, because I think scum!marci would have played into my banter to attempt to pocket me, but no pocket attempt was made.

[Lukewarm]

I think that the mafia put Norwee+N_M in the 3 person group because they knew it would lead to conflict, and put a lot of noise in the thread. And that strategy appears to be paying off, because they are doing exactly that. But that still leaves the question of whether you did it, and the 2 town players are falling for it, or if one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other.

I am a little surprised at the amount of posts coming form Not_Mafia, in my expereince with him he has been a lot more sparse. In our last game he made 63 posts spread out over 30 days, and then in this game he is at 29 posts in like 6 hours, and that was also a game that had both Norwee and Not_Mafia in it...

So I am a bit suspicious that this is that "one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other"

So of the three of you, I think it might actually be Not_Mafia... but he is such a hard person to read, by design, and it seems like his reputation has resulted in him almost having a site wide immunity from Day 1 eliminations.

So I am kind of glad we are not voting in the 3 player neighborhood today.

[Lukewarm]

In our last game he made 63 posts spread out

over 20 days

oop, typo there

[Lukewarm]

What other substance am I supposed to have already put into the thread?

Imo, the first order of business was figuring out which neighborhood we are going to be voting in today, so that is the conversation I have been engaging with the most so far. At this point, I think I am pretty settled on saying that we should vote from the 6p neighborhood.


At this point, I am really waiting for more content from Dunnstral, Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, and marcistar before I can really get started with my new goal of figuring out who we should vote for today.

The only read I actually have so far is a town read on Marci,

because I think scum!marci would have played into my banter to attempt to pocket me

, but no pocket attempt was made.

Marci is literally successfully pocketing you...

I think the "no pocket attempt was made" might have oversold my point, and caused you to overlook my true position in bold. I did not mean to say that just anyone would have behaved that way. Specifically, I think scum!marci would have played into the banter.

I am walking into this game on the heels of a game where Marci was scum. In that game, her first couple of posts leaned pretty heavily into bantering back and forth between the player she had played with before. And it worked, that player gave her a town read Day 1. So when I tried to put banter in place with her this game, and she met that banter with suspicion, both here and in the Neighborhood thread, it feels like the opposite of how she reacted in the last game (where she was scum).

So I am concluding that the difference was that in that game, she already knew the other person alignment, and her goal was pocketing the player she played with before, and in this game, her goal is to figure out the alignment of the player she played with before.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

[Lukewarm]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

[Lukewarm]

If anyone is interested in the math, but does not want to look back at the last game, here is a summary of what I saw from Bingle's iso last game.

The math Vandercamp is talking about was based on if we shoot completely at random with every single elimination. If that is the case, we get a 44% chance of winning by starting from the 3p pool, compared to a 40% chance of starting with the 6p.

However, Bingle also said that we gain a lot more information starting from the 6p pool, which should mean we stop shooting at random sooner, therefore making up the small difference between the fully random winrates.

[Lukewarm]

If anyone is interested in the math, but does not want to look back at the last game, here is a summary of what I saw from Bingle's iso last game.

The math Vandercamp is talking about was based on if we shoot completely at random with every single elimination. If that is the case, we get a 44% chance of winning by starting from the 3p pool, compared to a 40% chance of starting with the 6p.

However, Bingle also said that we gain a lot more information starting from the 6p pool, which should mean we stop shooting at random sooner, therefore making up the small difference between the fully random winrates.

[Lukewarm]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

I think I would like the answer to this question from you and bingle as well.

[Lukewarm]

@Norwee, how do you feel about it? Staged towntell or genuine?

[Lukewarm]

There was something interesting with GL that happened in the Neighborhood as well. He devised a plan to trick the mafia in the 3p neighborhood, but someone had to tell him that mafia had daytalk. Which he said he had not realized.
.
So he either really misunderstood what mafia could do in this game. Or he bluffed twice, in both chats, about different mechanics.

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm how good would you rank your own scum game?

Uncertain.

I have been a VT in every game that I have completed so far.

My primary experience before Mafiascum was One Night Ultimate Werewolf (and a lot of that tbh), where I thought my werewolf game was better then average amongst the people I was playing with. But that was in person with people I knew IRL. Not sure yet how well that translates to this site.

[Lukewarm]

Leaning Bingle here

Do you have a scum read in the 6P neighborhood?

[Lukewarm]

Or, like a potential partner for Bingle?

[Lukewarm]

Marci the people in this lobby seem to take everything people say seriously. Not allowed to joke about being scummy in here

Spoiler:

Or they will elim you

[Lukewarm]

Norwee has voted Marci - what do Bingle and Not_Mafia think about that potential wagon?

[Lukewarm]

I have thoughts on Marci, but would like to get Bingle's and Not_Mafia's thoughts in the chat before I share

[Lukewarm]

Norwee has voted Marci - what do Bingle and Not_Mafia think about that potential wagon?

I don't particularly. Norwee/NM apparently played with her in a newbie recently that I mean to read for meta soon, but I haven't gotten around to it. I also don't really plan on scumhunting the big pool, but rather townhunting the big pool and then teamhunting across pools. I will say that the pair of N_M/Norwee both being willing to go there is :eyebrows: for me.

Me, Not_Mafia, and Norwee were all town in that game with a scum!Marci

[Lukewarm]

So they thing I was thinking about, is that imo, the scum team would have put the scum they felt could comfortable dodge a day 1 elim into the 6p neighborhood, because that is an instant lose condition. This is Marci's first game outside of the Newbie cue, and there are 3 people in this game that just saw her scum game. It just seems like a needlessly dangerous choice to put scum!marci into the 6P team.

Norwee and Bingle both have played in this set up before, and would be aware of that danger, and both started the game by pushing for a vote in the 6P pool. Not_Mafia on the other hand, came in pushing for the Day 1 elim to be in the 3P pool, so there is a chance that he thought the better Day 1 elim dodger should go in the 3P pool if he expected town to start there. But then he just agreed with the growing suspicion on Marci.

[Lukewarm]

Do y’all think Marcistar is samey as in the newbie game or different/townie?

I think that there are parts shining through that are the same, but that feels like just who Marci is as a person tbh. The thing that is different, from my PoV is that her first 3 posts in the last game were all clearly trying to build up the banter with Meuh. And when I tried to banter with her this game, she called me out over in. Both here and in the neighborhood. (so I think in the first game, he goal was to build rapport with Meuh. In this game it was figuring out my alignment)

As for the similarities, I remember, Meuh, who had the most experience playing with her put this

It's mostly meta, Marci just seems to be acting naturally. Nothing seems off about her gameplay, her habits and thought processes are the same, she's been extremely consistent with her other town games

So at least some of it is her personality is shining through regardless of alignment.

Norwee, if you were scum, after having seen her scum game, and knowing that would mean 2 of the town players just witnessed it, would you think she would be safe as the 6p choice?

If yes, why?
If no, why do you think Not_Mafia or Bingle would have made that choice?

[Lukewarm]

Dunnstral
Vanderscamp
GuiltyLion
Hopkirk
Lukewarm
marcistar

I'm leaning town on Hopkirk
I want to lean town on Vanderscamp but I'm not there yet

VOTE: Lukewarm

[Lukewarm]

For context, I think you look kind of bad inside of the neighborhood

In what way?

[Lukewarm]

I openly admit that I was buddying up to Marci, both in the main thread and in the neighborhood thread. But... then I used her response to read her.

I just saw a game of how scum!marci responded to being buddied by a town, so I checked to see if she responded the same way. She didn't.

[Lukewarm]

And to be honest with you, 100% of the only reason I signed up for this game was to play with Marci so she would be more comfortable leaving the newbie queue. We even talked about that before we signed up. Of course I am then going to be friendly with her once we get here.

Here is a link to the post-game conversation about it after our last game together, if you want to see how we were talking to one another immediately before the start of this game to compare.
1138

[Lukewarm]

No, you didn't force me. I like Mafia, and am happy to play. I just would not have normally signed up for this game, because it put me at 3 simultaneous games, and had planned to stick to 2. But I signed up anyways because I wanted to help you branch out and play a non-newbie game.

So far the pacing has not been bad at all trying to be involved in 3 games, so don't worry about it

[Lukewarm]

your pseudo-gambit was awkward

For the people in the 3p neighborhood. This is referring to 164 / 171

Spoiler:

I saw someone asking questions about GL not knowing about the Night Kill, remembered that in the neighborhood chat, he also did not know about Day Talk.

And was like "aha" here is info in the neighborhood that the townies in the other neighborhood would no know. So I tried to get everyone from the 3p neighborhood to give an opinion on the Night Kill situation, and then wanted to see if anyone's opinion changed after hearing about the Day Talk situation as well. But... all 3 of you had the same opinion, and no one changed, so there was nothing to compare amongst the 3p neighborhood. I declared my line of questioning pointless, and moved on.

Hopkirk brought it back up in the neighborhood, and questioned me about it, wanted to know what I was looking for. Declared that my line of questioning pointless from the start, regardless of how you 3 answered.

Maybe so, did not put a ton of thought into it, I mainly just wanted to try and take advantage of the neighborhoods in some way

[Lukewarm]

the crux of it seems to be that Hopkirk said Norway has an established reputation as being low WIM as scum and cited players that he thought had expressed that sentiment, Bingle doesn't think those players would have said that and asked Hopkirk about a specific one (FL), Hopkirk gave a jokey response instead of clarifying where he saw/heard FL talking about it.

I generally feel like "Norway has low WIM as scum" is likely to be something Hopkirk felt is true regardless of his alignment in this game (or nEE's for that matter), like I don't think he's going to just make up a complete lie about another player's scum meta, especially when naming specific players as references. however I do not see why he deflected a question about it instead of just saying where he might have seen FL comment on it, so I can sympathize with Bingle's suspicion there. If this is a premeditated push from scum!Bingle I think it would be hard for him to continue pushing it if Hopkirk had brought receipts, but at the same time I could envision scum pouncing on a townie's careless remarks about meta, so I don't know if it's strictly a town-indicative push especially since odds are not in Bingle's favor.

I do think this rules out a S-S relation and has decent odds of T-S in some direction given the difference in pools

I have some other thoughts that I typed up and deleted cause they amounted to further wishy-washiness than even the above. I'm a bit rusty at this game and feelin like I can't quite make reads yet with the confidence I used to have in my prime

I think you are missing the fact that Hop admitted to having lied about talking to any of those people about Norwee (310).

So what actually happened, was that Hop lied about it trying to get a reaction from Norwee -> When Bingle read it, he immediately knew it was a lie, and started questioning him to prove that it was a lie / to figure out why he lied.

[Lukewarm]

Why are you using the term 'lied' here?

Lie.

verb.

to express an inaccurate or false statement

Kanna, Flavor Leaf, A50, Flopz, and Isis have all brought it up at different points

it's fairly obvious i haven't talked to those 5 people (including Flopz) about norway's meta

'so nobody said that and hopkirk is making it up'

From what I gathered, you made it up to get a reaction from Norwee, which you could have done from either alignment, but my word choice seems accurate regardless of your intent.

So I believe you made it up with the purpose of eliciting a reaction to Norwee. Am I wrong, or do you just object with the word lie?

[Lukewarm]

So they thing I was thinking about, is that imo, the scum team would have put the scum they felt could comfortable dodge a day 1 elim into the 6p neighborhood, because that is an instant lose condition. This is Marci's first game outside of the Newbie cue, and there are 3 people in this game that just saw her scum game. It just seems like a needlessly dangerous choice to put scum!marci into the 6P team.

Norwee and Bingle both have played in this set up before, and would be aware of that danger, and both started the game by pushing for a vote in the 6P pool. Not_Mafia on the other hand, came in pushing for the Day 1 elim to be in the 3P pool, so there is a chance that he thought the better Day 1 elim dodger should go in the 3P pool if he expected town to start there. But then he just agreed with the growing suspicion on Marci.

The validity of this probably depends on how well Marci did as scum in that game, if Marci did worse than average or at least was not confident this is likely a good reason to townread Marci.

Thoughts from people who played in the scumMarci game?

Personally, I think Marci did a great job, but she does not seem confident in her ability as scum. Like I read through her Mafia Chat post game, and she is constantly apologizing to her partner(s) about not being any good. Calling herself "the worst scum ever" and saying that if they lose it will be all her fault. And there were messages like this throughout the entire game, and her partner(s) constantly assuring her she is doing great.

In conclusion, she is way better then she thinks, but I don't think she would put herself in a position to potentially auto-lose for her team.

[Lukewarm]

lukewarm would you feel bad about buddying Marci really hard if you were scum (and your betrayal tore her heart apart etc)

What a question lol

Maybe? A little?

But I don't think I would feel too bad about trying to win for my team. I mean in our last game, where she was scum, that is exactly what she did to Meuh, so I think she would understand.

[Lukewarm]

So they thing I was thinking about, is that imo, the scum team would have put the scum they felt could comfortable dodge a day 1 elim into the 6p neighborhood, because that is an instant lose condition. This is Marci's first game outside of the Newbie cue, and there are 3 people in this game that just saw her scum game. It just seems like a needlessly dangerous choice to put scum!marci into the 6P team.

Norwee and Bingle both have played in this set up before, and would be aware of that danger, and both started the game by pushing for a vote in the 6P pool. Not_Mafia on the other hand, came in pushing for the Day 1 elim to be in the 3P pool, so there is a chance that he thought the better Day 1 elim dodger should go in the 3P pool if he expected town to start there. But then he just agreed with the growing suspicion on Marci.

The validity of this probably depends on how well Marci did as scum in that game, if Marci did worse than average or at least was not confident this is likely a good reason to townread Marci.

Thoughts from people who played in the scumMarci game?

Personally, I think Marci did a great job, but she does not seem confident in her ability as scum. Like I read through her Mafia Chat post game, and she is constantly apologizing to her partner(s) about not being any good. Calling herself "the worst scum ever" and saying that if they lose it will be all her fault. And there were messages like this throughout the entire game, and her partner(s) constantly assuring her she is doing great.

In conclusion, she is way better then she thinks, but I don't think she would put herself in a position to potentially auto-lose for her team.

Marci, don't be mad about me pointing out your mafia chat messages, I am trying to save you

[Lukewarm]

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

[Lukewarm]

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Do you think she's obviously different from last game?

Because that's the thing that would make it weird, I also think she sounds scummy so I don't mind it

Imo, she was a lot more active and asking more questions. I get the feeling that she feels a lot of pressure as scum to "not let her partner down", so tries a lot harder in that role. In our last game, she was TR by almost everyone pretty early in Day 1

Norwee had her as his #1 town read as of post 67, and he kept her as a town read even when he was sitting in the Ghost Chat. And post game said

Sorry everyone, my reads were awful this game. I usually am not that bad, but Marcistar's style is one that just didn't ping me as scummy at all... Well played to them.

[Lukewarm]

This definitely seems like scum Marci from the newbie game

But I also don't udnerstand this coming from Not_Mafia, because he was also in that game.

[Lukewarm]

^ 'want it more'/level of effort they'll put in as an alignment. i'm guessing you'll give it a 0/10 if you do a slang review here too

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games. what's up with that luke?

In what ways do you believe I am playing differently?

As a self diagnosis, the only thing I can think of is the buddying with Marci, but think that that has been pretty well explained - she is the reason I am in this game lol.

[Lukewarm]

If you say so, but we already talked about that, and he said I was playing differently.

I'm just unsure if he was still referring to that, or if he thought something else was off.

[Lukewarm]

can you give us a readslist Luke?

Looking at the 6p neighborhood

TR - Marci / Guilty Lion
TL -
Null - Vander / Hopkirk
SL - Dunn
SR -

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

[Lukewarm]

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

Why do you need to have a better read on other players before pushing your scumread? I find that generally anti-town, town should always be making pushes and generating pressure

And what actions have you been taking to get a better feel of them?

VOTE: Lukewarm

Because I am not sure I even think that it is him? I have him as a SL not a ST, and I know that there is only 1 in the 6p group, so wanted to get a feel for everyone

[Lukewarm]

As a self diagnosis, the only thing I can think of is the buddying with Marci, but think that that has been pretty well explained - she is the reason I am in this game lol.

TBH, you're so focused on it that its starting to seem like an

excuse.

Other people keep bringing it up

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

I think that I just don't like the first half of Day 1

In response to Hopkrik:

I took my first game quite seriously - The game that Hop linked to / described in 376. Was a Newie game, with zero activity... Like Day 1 ended after 275 total posts in 10 irl days. . So I was simultaneously, a complete newb, trying-harding, and worried about the state of the thread. (Was vanilla townie)

Then I played in this game, tried to take it seriously, and realized

{snip}

So I decided that maybe I needed to take the game a bit less seriously if I was gonna enjoy this game,

-Replaced out of that game for an unrelated reason (conflict with another player), but my slot has since died, and revealed to be a Vanilla Townie.
So, I tried taking it seriously, and the response was... unpleasant. Decided I should take Day 1 less seriously if I am going to enjoy games on this site.

Then tried replacing into games to see how that felt (see hopkirk 372), and honestly kinda liked it because you get to skip Day 1. There is lots of content, and it is a lot easier to get a foot hold into the game imo.

And now I am here. Started Day 1 instead of replacing in, tried to seriously figure out the mechanical side of the game, but otherwise tried to approach it more laid back.

Just trying to have a good time

[Lukewarm]

My top Scum read is probably Not_Mafia. He feels different in this game, then in any game I have played in with him.

My experience has much more been that he posts very sparingly, then comes in with hard reads on people. And he just has not done this all game.

Like, he is almost the opposite. He came in, posted a lot, and did not give a single read til like his 33rd post (which from my experience, they normally come out in like post 5). And voted early(-ier then normal for him) against Bingle.

Overall, his playstyle this game feels very different from my other games with him, and every role flip that I have seen of him so far has been a town flip.

But I have not been pushing this because I thought voting from the 6p pool was better.

That may be part of the issue, that I feel like it is suboptimal to push my top Scum Read

[Lukewarm]

I don't think Norwee's read progression on me makes sense to me

Spoiler:

I feel like Lukewarm is town, but i’m also hesitant to townread because i don’t know how good they are as scum.

Lukewarm how good would you rank your own scum game?

Lukewarm how good would you rank your own scum game?

Uncertain.

I have been a VT in every game that I have completed so far.

My primary experience before Mafiascum was One Night Ultimate Werewolf (and a lot of that tbh), where I thought my werewolf game was better then average amongst the people I was playing with. But that was in person with people I knew IRL. Not sure yet how well that translates to this site.

Going through ISO's with GL conf!town, soul townread on Lukewarm, and Bingle putting paranoia on Hopkirk we're left with this in a Bingle!scum world.
Bingle -> {Dunnstral}{Marcistar}{Vanderscamp}
Most emphasis on Marcistar and Vanderscamp i think.

Oh yeah, Lukewarm got scumread for some reason by multiple people and i never understood the meaning behind it.

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Hopkirk also feels really townie now, i don’t think they would have had this progression on Marcistar if they were scum.
So my townreads now are Hopkirk, Marcistar and Guiltylion. With highest confidence on Hopkirk and GL.
Lukewarm still i have paranoia levels on.
Dunnstral i really want to just ignore as nothing they’ve said is allignment indicative to me.
Leaving a pool of slots i might consider voting next as Vanders/Lukewarm.
I’m actually really interested in Hopkirks Lukewarm read and i’m going to take a closer look at their ISO now to see if i find myself to agree.

Bingle and Lukewarm both have this same unpleasant vibe where they seem to be not really attempting to solve but rather observe what's happening and construct other players actions as suspicious.
To go into more detail, Lukewarms: "Can we talk about how weird Norwee's Marcistar read is".
First of all, why is he just saying "can we talk about", like he's just inviting discussion for it and wants to test the waters rather than actually argue for why it's suspicious for me to push Marcistar? Secondly, why doesn't he try to solve the game rather than just being kinda in the background and discussing? He's not being as pro-active as i'd expect of a town player.
As for Bingle, he seems to mostly be focused on this thing Hopkirk said, which i already said in the hood PT i don't believe is allignment indicative and a waste of time to focus on. Yet now he's brought it further and apparently finds it really suspicious of Hopkirk for some reason. And also it slightly pinged me when Bingle tried to shade me in 306, which coincidentally. Also has to do with my Marcistar read, like they both co-ordinated to try to push me for this.

I could see an Bingle/Lukewarm team.

I'd vote Lukewarm but N_M might immediately hammer.

tl;dr

• 173 - he thinks I am town, but hesitant because he is unfamilier with my scum game
  
• 173 - Asks me to rate my own scum game
  
• 180 - I answer
  
• 188 - Now he has a "soul townread" on me
  
• 214 - Does not understand why other people would scum read me
  
• 339 - I put some shade in his direction
  
• 352 - Now he is paranoid about my alignment
  
• 371 - Lists me in his scum team guess
  
• 374 - Wants to vote me

His progression on my slot does not make sense to me. Like he started to townread me, asked me questions, and then townread me harder, and even came to my defense, until I became mildly suspicious of something he did. And he quickly switched to me being his highest scum read / wanting to vote me out?

It just feels like his "soul townread" on me was not genuine if a small bit of suspicion from me is enough to swing his opinion of me so far.

[Lukewarm]

Can't tell if scum, or town with a bad case of OMGUS reads

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Hopkirk

[Lukewarm]

Can't tell if scum, or town with a

bad case of OMGUS

reads

VOTE: Hopkirk

can you see the irony in this when i start sussing you and Bingle/you respond with votes? you haven't acknowledged/responded to me on any of that and this feels like a chainsaw defense from Bingle right now

What do you mean I didn't respond to you?

Spoiler:

I think that I just don't like the first half of Day 1

In response to Hopkrik:

I took my first game quite seriously - The game that Hop linked to / described in 376. Was a Newie game, with zero activity... Like Day 1 ended after 275 total posts in 10 irl days. . So I was simultaneously, a complete newb, trying-harding, and worried about the state of the thread. (Was vanilla townie)

Then I played in this game, tried to take it seriously, and realized

{snip}

So I decided that maybe I needed to take the game a bit less seriously if I was gonna enjoy this game,

-Replaced out of that game for an unrelated reason (conflict with another player), but my slot has since died, and revealed to be a Vanilla Townie.
So, I tried taking it seriously, and the response was... unpleasant. Decided I should take Day 1 less seriously if I am going to enjoy games on this site.

Then tried replacing into games to see how that felt (see hopkirk 372), and honestly kinda liked it because you get to skip Day 1. There is lots of content, and it is a lot easier to get a foot hold into the game imo.

And now I am here. Started Day 1 instead of replacing in, tried to seriously figure out the mechanical side of the game, but otherwise tried to approach it more laid back.

Just trying to have a good time

Had a whole post that started with "In response to Hopkrik"

[Lukewarm]

luke do u trust bingle?

Honestly, it is less that I trust Bingle, and more that both Not_Mafia and Norwee have given me reasons not to trust them.

Not_Mafia seems way different then he has in any other game I have played in with him + post 250 makes no sense imo. You feel completely different this game then you did in the last.

Norwee on the other hand, it feels like maybe he tried to pocket me? Like go through his iso and search for every time he mentions me. Its agree with me, thank me, town read me, town read me harder, defend me from other people. Then I pointed out he did something suspicious, and suddenly I am his number 1 vote.

I honestly don't know which of them is the scum, but if I suspect both of them, then I guess that means Bingle is probably town?

[Lukewarm]

Can't tell if scum, or town with a

bad case of OMGUS

reads

VOTE: Hopkirk

can you see the irony in this when i start sussing you and Bingle/you respond with votes? you haven't acknowledged/responded to me on any of that and this feels like a chainsaw defense from Bingle right now

I did not suspect you immediately after you made a case against me. I responded to your case as best as I could. I took the suspicion in good faith, and tried to imagine why I would feel different in this game compared to my other completed game where I started Day 1. I did not even go back and look at that game, I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

Then Bingle came in with 402 and when he showed the post that you were refering to as my post with reads / reasoning, and I realized that your case was in bad faith.

Like, in that game, I had 4 posts by the end of the 3rd day. In this game I had 41 by the end of the 3rd day. So if you are claiming that that game I was doing more to move the game forward, I no longer think you are making your case in good faith.

[Lukewarm]

in relation to the point on you not commenting on playing differently, these feel notably inconsistent. 383 is the kind of thing i was asking for in 356, but you responded with 'i can't see any differences' instead of more reasonable explanations as you provided in 383. if 383 had been in place of 358 then some of my initial issues would have been mitigated. it feels less convincing post facto

I can't read your mind? I did not know what made you think they were different, therefore I did not know how to respond. So far I have only played a handful of games, and overall feel like I am apporaching them with the same general mindset. So until you described differences, I didn't really know they were there.

Turns out I have gotten more relaxed the more games I have played. Also turns out I have become less confident in pushing scum reads - Which, if you read all 3 of my completed games at this point you will see that I very confidently tunneled on townies. In every one.

Spoiler:

My first game, I tunneled Deaminer and fferyllt (both town), and lost that game. In the other game you quoted, I tunneled Yessiree (was town) until literally the last page of the game, but a confirmed town said he did not think it was him, so I followed their lead and switched. In my game with Marci/Norwee/N_M I tunneled Carboi (was town), but I was not sure enough in myself anymore, so I followed the vote of the other player, Meuh

So yeah, I will admit that I probably came into this game a lot less confident in my ability to scum read players.

But I am not sitting here actively examining how I am playing every game. I did not realize that those two things were changing until they were pointed out to me.

[Lukewarm]

Can't tell if scum, or town with a

bad case of OMGUS

reads

VOTE: Hopkirk

can you see the irony in this when i start sussing you and Bingle/you respond with votes? you haven't acknowledged/responded to me on any of that and this feels like a chainsaw defense from Bingle right now

I did not suspect you immediately after you made a case against me. I responded to your case as best as I could. I took the suspicion in good faith, and tried to imagine why I would feel different in this game compared to my other completed game where I started Day 1. I did not even go back and look at that game,

I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

Then Bingle came in with 402 and when he showed the post that you were refering to as my post with reads / reasoning, and I realized that your case was in bad faith.

Like, in that game, I had 4 posts by the end of the 3rd day. In this game I had 41 by the end of the 3rd day. So if you are claiming that that game I was doing more to move the game forward, I no longer think you are making your case in good faith.

you've literally accepted the differences are major due to you subbing in.

.

here's a new problem

I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

inherently contradicts the point that this game has been very different due to being here in the start that you mentioned in 383. do you see how both of these things can't be true? either you were aware of a difference after i pointed it out OR you 'assumed i had a decent reason to think they were different' but weren't aware of a difference yourself at the time

taking my questioning in good faith requires you to read it and look at the things i'm quoting, otherwise you're not actually engaging with it
you had notably more scumreads. here you don't+/didn't feel like you had reads. do you disagree with this?
please explain which bits of my posts you specifically disagree with, what's in bad faith, and look at the post i made a few minutes back highlighting what i don't think you've engaged with

The bad faith argument I thought came from the first game, NOT the replace in games. I did feel like the replace in games were different, but those were obviously from being replaced in, and I think self explanatory.

But now I think that your argument about my first ever game was wack. (it was the only one you did not actually quote too, which is a bit suspicious given 380.) But also, you tried to claim that I was more present and making better content in that game. And I feel like that is a bad faith argument to make.

In that other game, in 3 days, I made 4 posts. Where I called 1 person out for an, I think decent reason, and where I accused someone of being wishy washy.

In this game, in 3 days, I made 42 posts. I made a strong TR case. I hunted through the backlogs of the prior game to try and figure out if a 6P or a 3P vote was good. I called out Not_Mafia for feeling different from what I am used to, and I called out Norwee for voting Marci and N_M for agreeing with him.

So if you are claiming that I approached that game with more effort / reads / content, then you are lying. You're argument was made in bad faith. I think that it is CLEAR that I am doing more to work towards a win this game, then I was in that game.

[Lukewarm]

as a yes or not question because i can't tell which you're saying: would you consider 'i subbed into two of those games much later on so this game has been a different experience' to count as 'playing differently'

No. Because I don't think it makes sense to compare my sub in games to my Day 1 play in that other game. I feel like I was playing Day 3 of my very first game about the same way as I was playing Day 2/3 of my sub in games.

[Lukewarm]

So if you are claiming that I approached that game with more effort / reads / content, then you are lying. You're argument was made in bad faith. I think that it is CLEAR that I am doing more to work towards a win this game, then I was in that game.

Like I would be more inclined to think you were making a good faith argument if you said the opposite. Like you thought I was scum because I was trying harder this game. But that is not the argument you are making. You are saying that I was doing more to find reads in that game compared to this one.

But I think I am done debating over my old games. Continuing to hunt back through multiple games to see what you are trying to talk about is more effort then I am willing to put into a defense here.

If that means I get voted out, that means I get voted out.

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

Marci is my strongest TR, and she is telling me I am stuck on this. Gonna wait a bit, and reread.

[Lukewarm]

Norwee on the other hand, it feels like maybe he tried to pocket me? Like go through his iso and search for every time he mentions me. Its agree with me, thank me, town read me, town read me harder, defend me from other people. Then I pointed out he did something suspicious, and suddenly I am his number 1 vote.

Can you please bring examples of this? When I was reading through him earlier, it didn't really feel like this to me.

Easiest way to see it would be to, control+f, looked for every time he said "luke". I did this at first to try and follow why he went from townreading me to listing me as his top scum read, and it stood out.

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

Precisely Lukewarm.

Thank you Lukewarm.

I feel like Lukewarm is town, but i’m also hesitant to townread because i don’t know how good they are as scum.

Lukewarm how good would you rank your own scum game?

Going through ISO's with GL conf!town, soul townread on Lukewarm, and Bingle putting paranoia on Hopkirk we're left with this in a Bingle!scum world.
Bingle -> {Dunnstral}{Marcistar}{Vanderscamp}
Most emphasis on Marcistar and Vanderscamp i think.

Oh yeah, Lukewarm got scumread for some reason by multiple people and i never understood the meaning behind it.

Like these are all the times he talked about me in a row

[Lukewarm]

I take it back. I am not going to reread. Just trust marci on it.

Here is my best summary of my play experience.

Frist game, Newbie 2060: Pretty bad. Slow rolling content because I did not know the proper cadence, and basically every SE in the chat was lurking. Until we got over half way through Day 1, and I was like "wait? at this rate we will never reach an elimination" and started pushing for the thread to start moving. Later on fferyllt replaced in, and the tempo of the game like quadrupled. Sadly, I threw that game because I tunneled her as scum. Like I thought her slot was scum before she replaced in, so I was tunneled on seeing ulterior motives from everything she posted.

Second Game, Open 809: Coming off the heels of the first game, I came in at a much higher tempo / taking it much more seriously. But I think I took it too seriously, because no one else was so serious at the start of Day 1, and being more serious then everyone else was unfun. Decided to try and be a bit more laid back. - Later replaced out of the game due to conflict with another player.

Third Game, Open 808: Replaced in, tried to imitate how fferyllt played when she first replaced in, came in strong with catchup posts and reads. Tunneled really hard on Yessiree. For multiple days. Managed to win anyways because I listened to a Tracker-Confirmed town instead of my own reads. Enjoyed skipping Day 1

Fourth Game, Newbie 2061: Replaced in, still trying to imitate fferyllt because she did an amazing job when she replaced in. Strong catchup posts / read list. Strong scum read Pear, was townie. Strong scum read Catboi, was townie.

This game:

And I honestly feel like my play this game has been the natural progression of me playing on this site. I was more laid back, chatting more freely with players that I have played with before just because like, this isn't my first game anymore? Also I started the game with the plan to low-key tested Marci to see how she would react to me buddying up to her, because I saw how she reacted as scum when Meuh buddied up to her, and wanted to see if she would respond the same way. Also though, I am probably less confident in my scum reads because I have been wrong every time in every game I have played in, so I was more build Townreads first, because those have not been terrible in my past games. But like, I was not consciously doing that. I was just just trying to win and have a good time, and that is how I have approached every game I have been in ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I have no more energy to defend myself today, so feel free to send me off to the chopping block if this still seems inadequate. I am probably not going to check back on this game until tomorrow (irl tomorrow, not like "I'm gone til game Day 2)

[Lukewarm]

@norwee, do you currently think Bingle or Not_Maifia is more likely to be the scum in your neighborhood?

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Do you think she's obviously different from last game?

Because that's the thing that would make it weird, I also think she sounds scummy so I don't mind it

Imo, she was a lot more active and asking more questions. I get the feeling that she feels a lot of pressure as scum to "not let her partner down", so tries a lot harder in that role. In our last game, she was TR by almost everyone pretty early in Day 1

Norwee had her as his #1 town read as of post 67, and he kept her as a town read even when he was sitting in the Ghost Chat. And post game said

Sorry everyone, my reads were awful this game. I usually am not that bad, but Marcistar's style is one that just didn't ping me as scummy at all... Well played to them.

But if Norwegian got totally fooled by her last game, why would it be weird that he is hesitant to townread her again this game?

I am gonna answer this in a spoiler, because I feel like the conversation has moved past this and I don't wanna clog the thread.

Spoiler:

But he wasn't just "hesitant to townread her." He named her as the most likely solve, and voted her.

My point was that she feels so different this game then she did in the last game. Last game she was present, she was responding to people, she was asking everyone lots of questions. At the end of Day 1, I am pretty sure she had the 2nd highest post count. - This game, she seems less invested in keeping up.

So from my pov, especially after reading the Mafia chat, is that scum!Marcie feels a lot of pressure to not let her partner down.

This game feels drastically different from her scum game, so I do not understand people who should know about that difference, would be scum reading her here.

And if his understanding of her scum game is that her scum style "is one that just doesn't ping him as scummy at all." Then why did he not question half the lobby saying "yeah, she seems really scummy"

[Lukewarm]

Guys, I think we commented too much on Not_Mafia being more active in this game, so now he is lurking

I'm sorry Not_Mafia, you can be active. I support you.

[Lukewarm]

I think Vanderscamp is town.

I read through the thread for round 1 of this game, and he feels like he is approaching this game the exact same way. Like the way he thinks about it

feels

the same.

So people I am considering voting out from the 6p pool:

Dunnstral

Vanderscamp

GuiltyLion

Hopkirk

Lukewarm

marcistar

VOTE: Dunn

Not getting good vibes from him, don't like how little content he has put into the thread.

I still think that Hopkirk is pretty scummy, but Marci has me worried that maybe I am caught up on things I shouldn't be :/

[Lukewarm]

Norwee seems really on board for almost any wagon in the 6p hood

Spoiler:

VOTE: Marcistar

VOTE: Lukewarm

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Except specifically Hopkirk. Like he seems immediately unwilling to entertain a Scum Read on him, and even seems to think that someone having a scum read on them is suspicious.

This

feels

like it is coming from someone who is basically at a reverse Elo situation, and thus hoping for any wagon to pass except for his partner's.



Oh yeah, and why did Norwee get such a strong Town Read on Hopkirk again?

Hopkirk also feels really townie now, i don’t think they would have had this progression on Marcistar if they were scum.
So my townreads now are Hopkirk, Marcistar and Guiltylion. With highest confidence on Hopkirk and GL.

And what was this progression on Marci that seemed worthy of his "highest confidence" TR?

Spoiler:

i'm not sure on Marci yet. i might try and make time to read the meta that's being pointed out as really good at some point

i TR Marci now btw. if you ask me why then i'm going to claim prophetic dreams, but there's better reasons

First he is "unsure in Marci" -> Me, Bingle, and GuiltyLion all state that we did not like the Marci wagon (all were stated before 336) -> Hopkirk gives marci a TR

So once 4 out of the 9 players all state they do not want to elim Marci day 1, Hopkirk gives her a TR, and that is enough for Norwee to give him a "highest confidence" TR for it?

[Lukewarm]

Can you better explain how Hopkirk ended up with such a strong TR from you?

[Lukewarm]

As for Hopkirk i just don't scumread them, you gonna sue me about it? Why is Hopkirk scummy? The burden of proof isn't on me.

There is a difference between not scum reading, and giving someone your most confident town read tho.

[Lukewarm]

I think we are posting at the same time, and so I am not responding to your most recent posts, but the one before

[Lukewarm]

So my townreads now are Hopkirk, Marcistar and Guiltylion. With highest confidence on Hopkirk and GL.

[Lukewarm]

I already stated i didn't believe Hopkirk would reverse their Marci read in that situation as scum. Granted, you said: "So once 4 out of the 9 players all state they do not want to elim Marci day 1, Hopkirk gives her a TR" which i don't remember seeing. So i'll re-read the situation to see if you're right.

Lukewarm - Post 270
GuiltyLion - Post 321
Bingle -Post 279

So prior to 336, me, GL, Bingle, and Marci are all positioning ourselves to not elim Marci today. Meaning if the scum team wants a miselim, they have to get every other player on board with multiple people in defend mode to overcome.

Then Hopkirk makes post 336

[Lukewarm]

I am also struggling to figure out your mindset for pushing Marci earlier. Like you did not even do it because you scum read her

Going through ISO's with GL conf!town, soul townread on Lukewarm, and Bingle putting paranoia on Hopkirk we're left with this in a Bingle!scum world.
Bingle -> {Dunnstral}{Marcistar}{Vanderscamp}
Most emphasis on Marcistar and Vanderscamp i think.

Assuming N_M scum we're left with:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
marcistar

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

VOTE: Marcistar
This feels the most likely to be scum cumulatively when looking at both worlds.

Like your vote on her, that almost led to her being pushed out Day 1, came simply because she was on both lists (even though you also had Dunn on both lists), and that does not feel like a genuine reason someone pushes Marci out given your conversation with her where you talked her into playing this game with you.

Spoiler:

can u come play with me somewhere else im too shy to go alone without knowing anyone ;-;

If you want, you can sign up to one of the games i'm already signed up for.
I'm going to play in this micro 9 player setup:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=86465&start=64

The 9 player micro i posted is really easy to understand.

I quite honestly expected all 3 of us to be buddying a bit, especially for the first half of Day 1, seeing as how you and I both were trying to help her branch out. But instead, your approach to her was try and push her out over a very weak PoE.

Like, if you had come out with a strong scum case on her, I would have understood. But your exact reasoning boiled down to "well, Marci is on both lists" when Dunn was sitting there on both lists too. Which makes me think that you were mostly thinking "which of these would be easier to push out atm?"

I think I am more convinced in my scum read on you then I am in my scum read on Hopkirk

VOTE: Norwee

[Lukewarm]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

[Lukewarm]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

[Lukewarm]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

we all know we're voting in the 6p pool so this question is pointless

Vanders, Norwee, and Not_Mafia have all stated they would prefer a 3P vote today.

You seems like you should be on board for a bingle vote.

I am now willing to hammer bingle if no one will follow me to on a vote against you/Norww

That is enough to elim.

So definitly not a pointless quesion.

[Lukewarm]

"Bingle pushed me for pushing Lukewarm therefore Bingle is chainsaw defending Lukewarm" when the actual timeline is "Bingle pushed me and then I pushed Lukewarm disingenuously and Bingle pointed that out while continuing to push me".

This is the real time line...

I really am not liking hopkrik here

But I think that the only way to stop the massive noise around this might be for a bingle vote.

I personally think that everyone in the thread should move their vote to either Hopkirk or Bingle. I just don't see them being TvT

VOTE: Hopkirk

[Lukewarm]

Here are a few things I want to point out about Hopkirk

Hopkirk accused Bingle of chainsaw defending me, when I don't think he could have genuinely thought that.

Bingle has been pushing on Hopkirk for a while, and Hopkirk knows that.
Hopkirk interacted with Bingle's read on him in posts 301 302 307 308 and 325. So he knew Bingle was pushing on him, even called it a shitpush

Then hopkirk made a case against me starting at post 372.

Then Hopkirk accused Bingle of chainsaw defending me in 415.


Also, this feels wrong too

Spoiler:

also full disclosure i uh... asked whether you thought you were playing differently before looking back through your games. it's a pretty fun question to ask people

^ 'want it more'/level of effort they'll put in as an alignment. i'm guessing you'll give it a 0/10 if you do a slang review here too

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games. what's up with that luke?

Because when he asked me if I thought I was playing differently, he did not just ask. He accused me of playing really really differently, then doubled down with a case. To then say that that came without ever looking back over my games seems wrong.


But again. Does anyone think that Hopkirk and Bingle could be TvT? Because I don't. Like, one of them has to be scum imo. So I feel like everyone should switch their vote to one of them.

[Lukewarm]

- Lukewarm posted a great point in our hood about how scum!Bingle would have hard defended both marcistar and Lukewarm slots away from potential elimination today and to what gain? If it's something like a Bingle-Dunn or Bingle-Vanderscamp team, that's playing fairly awkwardly as it's strictly increasing chance of autoloss. I was kinda waiting to see if Lukewarm would raise the same points in the thread, but he hasn't?

I was waiting to see if Bingle would bring it up himself / slip that he has heard that arguement from the 6P hood. Never saw it from him tho

Everyone in the 6P chat had already seen me say it, so did not feel the need to add it here. As an argument, it would be useful information for exactly 1 other townie, so seemed worth holding it back to see if anyone seemed aware of the neighborhood discussion.

[Lukewarm]

- Lukewarm posted a great point in our hood about how scum!Bingle would have hard defended both marcistar and Lukewarm slots away from potential elimination today and to what gain? If it's something like a Bingle-Dunn or Bingle-Vanderscamp team, that's playing fairly awkwardly as it's strictly increasing chance of autoloss. I was kinda waiting to see if Lukewarm would raise the same points in the thread, but he hasn't?

I was waiting to see if Bingle would bring it up himself / slip that he has heard that arguement from the 6P hood. Never saw it from him tho

Everyone in the 6P chat had already seen me say it, so did not feel the need to add it here. As an argument, it would be useful information for exactly 1 other townie, so seemed worth holding it back to see if anyone seemed aware of the neighborhood discussion.

When exactly did this happen in comparison to the main thread?

Fri May 14, 2021 7:21 pm

So right after I made 442

[Lukewarm]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

This is also a very scummy take

Basically, I think Hopkirk is scum.

But Marci told me that Bingle might be tricking me in to thinking that, so there is that worry in the back of my mind.


So I think Hopkirk/Bingle are the most likely 2 people to contain a member of the scum team, AND I don't think there is anyone else in the thread in this thread that I think would give us more info on a Miselim

I am literally stating "I want us to vote my top scum read, BUT if people insist we vote Bingle, and he flips town, I want to commit to voting my top scum read tomorrow."

[Lukewarm]

Currently GuiltyLion, Marci, and Hopkirk are all off of the Hopkirk and the Bingle wagons.

So to each of you, do you think Hopkirk and Bingle are TvT?

Do you think someone else would be a better Day 1 elim?

What makes you think they are scummier then hopkirk/Bingle?

If you are wrong, and it is a minelim, do you think it would give us more information then a flip on Hop or Bingle, and if so why?

[Lukewarm]

What’s with that avatar, are you an Ceejay alt Lukewarm?

No? Whats with your avatar?

Mine is a character from a video game

[Lukewarm]

What’s with that avatar, are you an Ceejay alt Lukewarm?

No? Whats with your avatar?

Mine is a character from a video game

I know, it's just that an user named Ceejayvinoya used the exact same character as an avatar. But you're probably not related, i'm just being annoyingly nostalgic.

My avatar is one of the heroines of an visual novel called Renai x Royale.

No relation to ceejay, just love the character. One of the few video game character stories that legitimately made me cry while playing the game T-T

[Lukewarm]

So to each of you, do you think Hopkirk and Bingle are TvT?

Do you think someone else would be a better Day 1 elim?

What makes you think they are scummier then hopkirk/Bingle?

If you are wrong, and it is a minelim, do you think it would give us more information then a flip on Hop or Bingle, and if so why?

No, i think its hopkirk town with a possibility of bingle being scum, tho im not 100% sure.

I don't have a better idea, but i don't wanna vote hopkirk so I kept my vote here.. I thought we were meant to be voting inside the 6p group?

Who is your top scum read amongst everyone in the thread, regardless of their neighborhood?

[Lukewarm]

marci vote Bingle with us

huh, would it be fine to?

I say go for it. I don't really forsee anyone other then hopkirk or Bingle going though at this point, so if that is your scum read between the two of them

[Lukewarm]

I think that puts Bingle at e-1

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE: Bingle

Okay now Hopkirk vote Bingle

omg

Not_Mafia really likes to hammer

[Lukewarm]

Currently GuiltyLion, Marci, and Hopkirk are all off of the Hopkirk and the Bingle wagons.

So to each of you, do you think Hopkirk and Bingle are TvT?

Do you think someone else would be a better Day 1 elim?

What makes you think they are scummier then hopkirk/Bingle?

If you are wrong, and it is a minelim, do you think it would give us more information then a flip on Hop or Bingle, and if so why?

This feels like a weird post - I just stated in my last post that I'm not really feeling TvT from Hopkirk/Bingle, but I haven't yet had time to feel comfortable throwing a vote down especially since there's been so much action between the two of them. It's also odd to me that you're asking Hopkirk these questions??

What is weird about it?

I suggested a plan, 6 out of the 9 players were already doing that, I wanted to get a better understanding about the 3 people who were not on board.

I asked Hopkirk to see how he would respond, and honestly him avoiding voting his top scum read is a bit suspicious imo. I wanted him to state for the thread why he was not voting for Bingle, because that is for us to analyze once Bingle flips.

[Lukewarm]

In fact, just lim Lukewarm. Dunnstrall sometimes be acting this lazy and uninspired in their towngames, but Lukewarms actively opposed the Bingle elimination and advanced their agenda. If Bingle!scum he needs to go.

Actively opposed? Pretty sure I helped convince people to vote for him lol.

Yes I think Hopkirk is is more likely to be the scum out of the two of them. No I did not actively oppose his elimination.

[Lukewarm]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

I personally think that everyone in the thread should move their vote to either Hopkirk or Bingle. I just don't see them being TvT

VOTE: Hopkirk

marci vote Bingle with us

huh, would it be fine to?

I say go for it. I don't really forsee anyone other then hopkirk or Bingle going though at this point, so if that is your scum read between the two of them

I can clearly show where I convinced both Marci and Bingle to vote for bingle, so you were literally spewing lies rn

[Lukewarm]

I explained what's weird about it, you're assuming I'm "not on board" when I had already suggested I *would* be on board. And it makes no sense to ask Hopkirk why he thinks another scumread "is scummier than Hopkirk/Bingle" or whether his own flip would be informative. Just feels like thoughtless busywork questioning all around, especially since you claim to TR marcistar and myself as well

I like to understand the positions of people I Town read just as much as the people I scum read.

I wanted to ask hopkirk point blank why he was not voting for bingle, his top scum read, and force him to come up with a reason why his vote was not there?

Asking scum reads to why they are or are not doing something is a key way to dig into their motivations, to check to see if they have proper town!motivations/if they have a genuine motivation to do things.

I think Hopkirks responses to my questions will be nice things to analyze during the Night / start of Day 2.

[Lukewarm]

I wanted him to state for the thread why he was not voting for Bingle, because that is for us to analyze once Bingle flips.

Like this in general is pretty manipulative framing, there are reasons to not vote someone if you don't want the day to end or want to see where other players are thinking their vote might go. How am I to look at this and see it as anything but an attempt to further poison Hopkirk's standing on a town!Bingle flip?

Those are valid reasons, and I was wanting to see if those were the reasons he gave.

Picking at peoples motivations is a key way to get a feel for whether or not their actions and motivations line up or if you think their actions are genuine.

[Lukewarm]

** motivations are genuine

[Lukewarm]

especially since in the hood you gave pretty good reasons as to why you didn't personally think Bingle was likely to be scum, but then here you're championing eliminating him ASAP by telling everyone to vote between the two of them?? Do you see how that raises yellow flags for me?

Only if you are not reading my iso .....

I clearly explained why I was okay with a Bingle flip, plus Bingle himself said it was an okay plan and even (essentially) hammered himself.

[Lukewarm]

I think that either Bingle is scum who tricked me, or , (more likely imo), Bingle is town being ignored because too many people are suspicious of him, and this will confirm him as town, meaning we no longer need to worry about any of his posts having a nefarious motive behind them.

I still think we should have gone with Hopkirk today, which is why I never moved my vote to Bingle, but I think a Bingle vote is the single best miselim possible to lead to a town win down the line.

I am playing to win, and putting an either or choice between bingle and hopkirk seemed like the best way for town to win imo

[Lukewarm]

bruh I've played mafia for 5+ years you don't need to say things like "Picking at peoples motivations is a key way to get a feel for whether or not their actions and motivations line up or if you think their actions are genuine.". My point is that your questions specifically were generic and bad and demonstrated no attempt to infer my thinking from what I had literally just posted.

To be quite honest with you, I cared more about Hopkirk's answers to the questions then yours, but thought I was more likely to get telling answers if I did not come across like I was interrogating him.

[Lukewarm]

and if Bingle/Hop is in fact TvT then all of your posts and actions are setting us straight on a path to two straight miseliminations. If you really thought Bingle was town you should not have been goading marcistar/Bingle to eliminate there today

I still stand by my earlier statement, that I think this was the best path to a win for town.


I think that Hopkirk is scum... but, if there is a world where hopkirk is not scum, then I think in that world bingle is.

Bingle suggested trading Vanderscamp for a hopkirk vote. and you and marci both seemed okay with that. That trade seemed like it would have been way less productive. first, I think that there was a lesser chance for it to get a scum flip. Secondly, I feel like we would have entered day 2 with multiple people crying "but Bingle is scum" and we would not have actually gotten any closer to winning.

[Lukewarm]

I think Bingle has found the scum team, but too many people are scum reading him for his reads and pushes to go through.

Hard confirming Bingle as town is the second best way to get us to a win here (outside of us just voting for Hopkirk, but no one listened to that idea), because no one can argue "but he is lying because he is scum." Instead if people want to ignore Bingle's reads, they are going to have to argue that Bingle is not good at spotting scum, and I think that is a harder case to make.

[Lukewarm]

I scum read Hopkirk and Norwee myself, outside of Bingle's pushes. I even made a multiple post case against Norwee.

This is not about my reads being dependent on Bingle. This is me realizing that this was the only way I can convince the town.

[Lukewarm]

Bingle suggested trading Vanderscamp for a hopkirk vote. and you and marci both seemed okay with that. That trade seemed like it would have been way less productive. first, I think that there was a lesser chance for it to get a scum flip. Secondly, I feel like we would have entered day 2 with multiple people crying "but Bingle is scum" and we would not have actually gotten any closer to winning.

I don't think i agreed?

You did not agree to the trade. You agreed on a Vote against Vanderscamp

(472) i have no idea how to read him, he's one of the people i'm unsure on rn so i'm willing to vote along with u VOTE: vanderscamp i like these points you made though, i didn't really think of it like that. that's whats making me comfortable to vote here

I'm pretty sure it's just Hopkirk/Norwee at this point, tbh, and I don't see my vote moving.

i don't really see it, i probably missed it but where is your last read on norwegianboyee? 403 i see you mentioning you see hopkirk with both, but i don't really see you do much to that..? like you responded to norwegianboyee, but it doesn't seem like you had a mind change in those posts..

[Lukewarm]

here it is for your viewing pleasure N_M:

Whatever, just get someone to E-1

Such leadership from our Confirmed Townie

[Lukewarm]

Overall, I like a lot of your reasoning about Vanderscamp, but this one really give me pause.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

Because, like when he made 477, You+Marci were alraedy voting for Vanderscamp, and I was so obviously trapped in his pocket, he should have know there was a chance I would follow his lead there. That puts Vanders at e-2, which is often equivalent to e-1 in a game with Not_Mafia. So, if I had followed through with his suggestion, the he would have immediately been put into the position of needing in to ante up or back out of his "I will vote Vanderscamp if we then vote Hopkirk"

For 477 to save Vanderscamp, Bingle would have had to assume I was going to climb out of his pocket at that moment. But from the nice and cozy comfort of his pocket, I saw it was "extreme confidence in his scum read" instead of "openwolfing." So 477 came awfully close to either getting Vanders voted out (GL, Marci, Me, Bingle, Not_Mafia is an Elimination) or essentially a scum partner claim by forcing Bingle to backtrack 477 the moment I follow him and vote Vanders.

[Lukewarm]

I want Guilty Lion still

VOTE: Lukewarm

Why do you think it is Guilty Lion?

(Also, sorry Norwee )

[Lukewarm]

Vanders/Luke>GL slightly>Dunn>Marc but i might reread

What moved Dunn so much further down this list then when you posted in the Neighborhood?

At the start of the night Dunn was your second highest suspicion. At the start of the day Dunn is your second lowest suspicion.

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, who is your pick for scum here?

I am going to have to ask for a raincheck. I have a big test that I am studying for that I have to take in the morning. As of tomorrow afternoon, I will be free from this class, and will have time to do a deep dive.

Just scanning the things that are back and forth between you and Vanderscamp, I will say that I don't think he is my number 1 choice. I think his stance on where we should have voted Day 1 was consistent (not the actual person, but like how to approach the set up) and also consistent with the first game where he argued against the "we should only consider a vote in the 6p neighborhood," with the conclusion we should always just vote the most scummy person regardless of neighborhood. Even in the first game his first vote was a player from the 6p neighborhood.

I don't think he has ever said (in either game) that we should always vote in the 3 person pool.

[Lukewarm]

Marci, what are you thinking rn?

[Lukewarm]

Luke, can you go over why Bingle being scum makes Marci more likely?

I could see a world where Bingle defended me so that I would stay in the game to keep defending Marci.

Spoiler:

279 -Early on in the day, he disagreed with both Not_Mafia and Norwee when they said that Marci seemed the same as she was in our last game, when he could have just as easily kind of deferred to their meta experience with her.

395 + 399 - Then he hard came to my defense when there was a growing suspicion on me.

So at the time, I felt like he disagreed with both of the first 2 big townie wagons, and that that would be dangerous for scum!bingle to do (part of my TR for him). At the start of the game we were talking about eliminating from the 6p pool, so scum had a 1 in 6 to auto lose Day 1. If Bingle derailed the first 2 big town wagons, then he made that 1 in 4. So he increased the odds of an auto lose....

Unless of course, Marci was his partner. That would mean that he quietly disagreed with the case on Marci, then hard defended her most vocal defender.

I still don't know if I believe that Bingle would put marci in the 6p pool in the first place, and I don't think that marci would want to be in the 6p pool knowing that her being eliminated Day 1 would be an auto lose. So she is still not high on my scum list, but there is partner equity between her and Bingle that I noticed.

[Lukewarm]

Coming into Day 2, I was leaning Dunn with Guilty Lion as a second place guess.

Spoiler:

I have spoken at length on why I do not think it was Marci. And I don't think that Bingle Town reads GL/Dunn/Me/Marci and then says "lets vote either Vadnerscamp or Hopkirk today" if either of Vanderscamp or Hopkirk at his partner in a set up where an elim on his parter is an auto-lose

I think that maybe Guilty Lion is slightly ahead of Dunn now.

Guilty Lion

Spoiler:

To me, it feels like his scum reads are coming from an angle of looking for a reason to scum read someone, instead of trying to get real reads on them. Like everything he brings up, I fell like I am left asking "why does GuiltyLion think that this scum!Vanderscamp would do that, but town!Vanderscamp wouldn't?

• Do not like him focusing on the "and then I remembered they could not be S-S" because clearly he is thinking about the pools, or he would not have caught the mistake himself AND as scum, why would he have carried that line into his posts?
  
• He has repeatedly brought up the fact that Vanderscamp voted Marci as a reason to scum read him, which also seems off to me. The main issue here, is that this is exactly how Vanders handled the first game. He made the same argument about the math of voting in each pool, made the same conclusion that it was really just best to vote for the scummiest person regardless of pool, then he voted in the 6p pool. - So why is GL taking this to be scum indicative
  -Also, at the time multiple people said that marci seemed scummy, including 2 people with experience with scum!marci (both of which have been confirmed town, so scum reading Marci at that point in the day was clearly not a scum only trait)
  
• Similarly, he him not being in the Neighborhood chat, means he is "more likely to be scum ignoring conflict/posting until they have to, rather than town just completely ignoring game relevant content." But if he also completely ignored the neighborhood chat in the first game, where is the logic that this makes him more likely to be scum
  
  He keeps saying that the way that Vanderscamp is playing, mean she is probably not town, despite the way he is playing being aligned with how he played in the last game, where he is town.

I felt similarly about how he scum read my RVS vote. His stance just did not match up with the logic he was trying to apply. He scum read me "for the casual/flippant way he voted." Then when I was like, yeah... it was a RVS vote, he tried to back up the read by saying he has caught scum on a RVS vote before, and links to a game where he said "9 feels over-explainy." So it just felt like he was reaching for a way to add a scum read there, despite it not lining up.

VOTE: Guilty Lion

[Lukewarm]

Here's where I start really reiterating a push/case on him:

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Note that I've said nothing about Vander's attitude about the pools prior to this post. Now look at what I am saying - what's weird is that "he hasn't bothered to fight harder against thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p

DESPITE HIS STRONGEST SR BEING BINGLE

". Again, referring to the fact that his posts are all centered around Bingle being scummy to him, having reasons to suspect Bingle.

But look at how Vander twists the argument in his reply to defend himself:

It's also ridiculous to say that

I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool

, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

He drops the most important part of my point ("Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead") and shifts the entire discussion to instead being about how he argued for limming in the 3p in the general sense. It's a misrep to make my argument different than what it was.

Also, very much dislike this post. He is accusing Vanders of twisting the argument, but then makes an argument that is fundamentally not true.

He says "Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead"

When Vanders voted Marci, he had not once said that anything Bingle had done was scummy. So where is this idea coming from?

He votes Marci in post 230. In post 238 he says that Marci is scummier then Bingle, followed by 4 posts in a row (in his ISO) where he presses on his Marci scum read (post 239, post 243, post 244, post 249.

Then he asks Bingle a question, and really does not like his answer (post 262) and immediately moves his vote to Bingle (post 263).

But for some reason, Guilty Lion keeps saying that he scum read Bingle over Marci, and I just do not see that in his ISO at all

[Lukewarm]

He has repeatedly brought up the fact that Vanderscamp voted Marci as a reason to scum read him, which also seems off to me. The main issue here, is that this is exactly how Vanders handled the first game. He made the same argument about the math of voting in each pool, made the same conclusion that it was really just best to vote for the scummiest person regardless of pool, then he voted in the 6p pool. - So why is GL taking this to be scum indicative
-Also, at the time multiple people said that marci seemed scummy, including 2 people with experience with scum!marci (both of which have been confirmed town, so scum reading Marci at that point in the day was clearly not a scum only trait)

Because Vander gave NO good reasons for scumreading Marci, and plenty of good reasons to scumread Bingle! Then he votes Marci and I've not understood why the entire game. See 236.

Where did he say Bingle was scummy before he voted Marci?

And he responded to 236, by saying that he did think Marci was scummier then Bingle

[Lukewarm]

IT'S RIGHT THERE IN HIS ISO HOW DO YOU NOT SEE IT

It just seems like you are making a big deal over him have a vote on marci for less then 12 hours.

When he voted Marci, I think that there were valid reasons in the thread to scum read her at that time, and I probably would have agreed with them had I not just witnessed her scum game.

So if he is starting with a SR on Marci, and still trying to sort Bingle, he voted Marci. Then over the course of 12 hours, his SR on Bingle formed, and he moved his vote.

I am not saying that his transition from a Marci -> Bingle vote is a reason to TR him, but it feels like all of your reasonings (not just this one, and not just on Vanders) come from a place of hunting for a reason to make a scum case on someone, rather then looking at someone and actively trying to sort them.

[Lukewarm]

you might get an opportunity still if that was a "let me read" unvote and not a "GL is clearly town" unvote

I'm trying to take a breath and consider if I'm wrong about Vander but not gonna lie it's really hard for me to see the town case for Vander. Luke has done some ostensibly overtly scummy stuff, and the way he's kinda ignored my pleads to elim Vander after me is kinda giving me pause - it doesn't match his attitude at all with Bingle EOD1 - but I still think this would be quite an impressive scumgame especially in terms of real time posting if he's scum here. Do we feel confident about a hypothetical Lukewarm/Marci/Dunn F3 if that does somehow happen? If Dunn is town and Actually Tries I think we'll be okay and that's the real worst case scenario

If you flip town, then I will look back over Vanders, but I am not sure I am ready to commit my vote for tomorrow.

I currently had him lower then you and Dunn both. But if you are town, then I will look back over everything based on both the Day flip and the Night Kill.

[Lukewarm]

777 "It just seems like you are making a big deal over him have a vote on marci for less then 12 hours." this is the reason for ur vote on guiltylions..? so like, if hes scum... why would he be doing this?
quite an obvious "big deal" surely would gain attention and then result in votes possibly, so what would a scum have to gain from it..? Putting their life out to say something like that..? I find it unlikely, its more likely they would be more cautious imo...

Spoiler:

though maybe i've just been biased cuz i've been townreading guiltylions.

(if hes scum) if he dies it would be gg..
i find how hes acting consistent with how hes been all game, it

doesn't

seem like hes trying to just push urgently to live another day, it seems more like after a scumflip he's gained more confidence in a read, which makes it seem a bit townie

but also, i have a genuine question for u;
day phase literally just started not that long ago, so

why did you felt the need to vote guiltylions..?

he already had 2 votes at that point (i think? thats what a votecount says..), and it says it takes 4 votes for a hammer... knowing not_mafias voting tendencies, the vote you made is very weird.... it seems like you were trying to get him hammered? you don't always need to vote someone you sus, you can just push without voting... would a townie really rush so quick into a vote like that, when its not 100% certain hes scum? a townie would doubt alot more, but you really don't seem to care..? it seems like ur kinda trying to stunt the conversations and make more options for miselims.

am i getting this wrong..?
this is just what im thinking rn, because the wagon on guiltylions kinda reeks imo, and this is the major flaw im finding in it

-- --

another question i have is,

how confident are you in this vote?

Spoiler:

like list the percentage

Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here. I know for a fact that Not_Mafia is town and I am pretty confident that you and hopkirk are both town. That just leaves GuiltyLion, Dunn, and Vanders.

So unless someone thinks that you are scum or someone thinks that hopkirk is scum, then it just kind of feels like the game is gonna be a town win by default from my PoV, and so I am being a little more free with my votes.

Spoiler:

I am probably like 45 on GL, 40 on Dunn, 15 on Vanders atm if you want percentages

[Lukewarm]

Maybe I am being quick on my vote, but like, we are in a 1:7 situation. We have a lot of leeway here.

are u usually quick on votes lukewarm?

we may have leeway rn, but if we do it all speedrun style that can backfire so quick on us

I give each vote the amount of time I think it deserves. In a 1:3 Elo situation, I am not going to be voting until right at the dead line.

A 1:7, with an IC, and 2 other people that are hard Town Reads, not as much. That being said, I still put a lot of thought into my vote. I still went back trough the ISO of every player, looked for interactions between them and Bingle, and then sorted all of the players by their scumminess from my PoV, and then read through the arguments of all of the other players before I voted. And their arguments shifted my position, I started with Dunn as more suspicious then GL, but that changed through the day.

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

[Lukewarm]

Hopkirk you rascal you stole my hammer

Hey Mr. Confirmed Townie, what are your thoughts on Guilty Lion?

Do you have a Scum Read on anyone else at the moment?

[Lukewarm]

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

not rlly anything new yet, but i dont want us to rush too quick.
im planning to read deeper either tmmrw or sunday

UNVOTE:

I am still leaning towards GuiltyLion, but will wait for you to get a chance to get a read

[Lukewarm]

2 week deadlines at a guess? i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still suffer

Why would anyone, town or scum, want this game to take any longer then necessary for them to win?

I am not against everyone taking however long they need to come to a decision each day, but dragging it out for the sole reason for making sure that "even if scum win they still suffer" sounds anti-fun to me, and I was under the impression we were here to have fun

If the consensus if for us to drag it out, can we either vote me out or can the mafia Night Kill me, because that does not sound fun at all.

[Lukewarm]

Luke is openwolfing super hard and i want that to flip scum but am not sure if it did. need to look back at d1 a looooot more there

Also, do people really think that Scum!Luke would have handled this game the way that I have played this game?

Because I feel like I should be obv town at this point. Like, maybe bad town, but obv town none the less.

[Lukewarm]

I am going back through GuiltyLion's iso, and now I am trying to think if Scum!GL would really go this hard after Vanders when he is not getting much support and being met with resistance.

Maybe GuiltyLion is just tunneled and therefore everything about Vanders automatically reads as scummy? That could explain some of the bad takes I felt like I was seeing from him.

Spoiler: GL

GL I do not think all of your points are bad. I do see where some of your reads are coming from, but they are intermixed with a lot of accusations that certain behavior means he is scum, despite the same thing existing in his confirmed town version of this game. I originally read that as scum trying to come up with a reason to push as SR, but now I am wondering if it is just a townie who is tunneled into seeing scum-behavior in every post from their SR

I think that maybe Dunn is back to my top choice for the day

Not_Mafia, who are your top choices for an elim today?

[Lukewarm]

Oh, Not_Mafia, our dear mod confirmed townie, why hast thou forsaken us?

Please return to the thread and offer us your guidance. Do so, and I swear I shall never again scum read you for being active in a game.

Spoiler:

but for real tho, who you thinking?

[Lukewarm]

Oh, Not_Mafia, our dear mod confirmed townie, why hast thou forsaken us?

Please return to the thread and offer us your guidance. Do so, and I swear I shall never again scum read you for being active in a game.

Spoiler:

but for real tho, who you thinking?

why are u so obsessed with him?

Because I like to hear from the only person in the thread that I know 100% I can trust, and I don't have to look for ulterior motives from.

But so far he has not really given us anything

[Lukewarm]

We need to reach some form of consensus

At the moment, I am mainly waiting to give marci a chance to read back through and comment before I vote again

Do you have a case against someone you are more suspicious of? Because I would love to see it.

not rlly anything new yet, but i dont want us to rush too quick.
im planning to read deeper either tmmrw or sunday

[Lukewarm]

We need to reach some form of consensus

you can't just say this while not putting any opinions down

Hey, good point.

Dunn, what is your read list atm?

[Lukewarm]

I don't know what to do to help improve town's chances if no one is really engaging with me other than Vander. Lukewarm do you really not find any of my points against him convincing at all?

Can you walk me through how you think scum in the 6p should play this game, especially if you don't see Vanders as scummy? You were thinking on D1 about how Bingle's play didn't make sense pushing eliminations off of marcistar and yourself, yet it doesn't feel like I can get you to think at all about how Vanders' play makes sense attempting to solidify towncred from scumreading and ultimately bussing his buddy. The fact that he said today that he "pushed Bingle hard" (do you agree that he did?) is also evidence for this. It's why I think he has far more scum equity than Dunn, Dunn isn't trying to survive at all or set himself up to endgame.

I looked back through your iso, and grabbed what seemed I think your points against Vanders are:

You don't like his progression from a Marci to a Bingle vote Day 1

Honestly, I am am a bit ambivalent on this point. Because when I read though it, what I see is Vanders with a scum read on Marci voting Marci.
Then this post, for me at least, answers why he had not moved his vote yet

Bingle can you talk about what I asked you about Dunn?

He was waiting for Bingle to respond to his questions. And as soon an Bingle answers, he votes.
I see no reason to TR Vanders for his interactions with Bingle here, but I don't spot it as immediately suspicious

You don't like that he forgot me/Marci could be S/S

I actually really don't like this point. Because in the context of the post, he was actively examing the interactions between me and marci, and running through the possibilities of that interaction, and then dismissed the possibility of s/s himself. The fact that he never suggested it in the thread makes me not suspicious for him over this. Once again, I see no reason to TR him for this, but it does not strike me as suspicious

You don't like that he ignored the neighborhood chat

I find it hard to say that this is scum indicative, simply by virtue of looking at the neighborhood chat iso from the last game. So, no reason to TR him for it, but no reason for me to SR him for it either.


So overall, the things you are point to to scum read him are all things that seem like they are not reasons to scum read him. On the flip side tho, I do not have a ton of reasons to TR him either, which is why he is still in my potential scum pool, he is just not at the top of my list.

The main reason he is lower on my elimination priority is because Bingle's "vote Vanders today, then vote Hopkirk tomorrow" seems like a risky play to make if Vanders was his partner. Compared to him actively pushing the votes away from Marci, me, you, and Dunn.

To be honest with you, it feels like you approached him looking for reasons to state he was scum. I originally thought it was scum!you trying to hunt for a case to make against a town player, but now I am realizing that you stated that this case has an element of it being a PoE case limiting it to just Vanders, and therefore you were hunting for any and every reason that could be scummy. So I guess I could see this case coming from scum or town.

I think that Dunn is my current top choice for elim today

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Dunn

[Lukewarm]

Well... we really split the vote on this one

2 for Vanders, 2 for Dunn, 2 for Marci

[Lukewarm]

Well... we really split the vote on this one

2 for Vanders, 2 for Dunn, 2 for Marci

So luckily, we all appear to be on the same page here

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: marci

I still stand by day 1 Marci feeling real different from Day 1 Marci in the other game, but this does feel a bit like Marci after she lost her partner...

I really don't like that every single town and every single scum read she has wavered on.

And she does not appear to be solving. It kind of feels like she was not putting in the effort today because she wanted to slide through on all of the town reads she got day 1.

[Lukewarm]

I'm not gonna lie the temptation to yolohammer is real

Do it, it feels good

Not_Mafia, I am surprised you did not unvote, and then tell him not to worry about hammering

[Lukewarm]

I still stand by day 1 Marci feeling real different from Day 1 Marci in the other game, but this does feel a bit like Marci after she lost her partner...

I really don't like that every single town and every single scum read she has wavered on.

And she does not appear to be solving. It kind of feels like she was not putting in the effort today because she wanted to slide through on all of the town reads she got day 1.

check my other town games, i just dont have motivation when im sused because its not fun usually its me getting tunnel sused when i do that tho.

My issue, is that you have been giving this vibe since the very start of Day 2, but you were not being sussed until like the last 24 hours

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: marci

I still stand by day 1 Marci feeling real different from Day 1 Marci in the other game, but

this does feel a bit like Marci after she lost her partner

...

I really don't like that every single town and every single scum read she has wavered on.

And she does not appear to be solving. It kind of feels like she was not putting in the effort today because she wanted to slide through on all of the town reads she got day 1.

oh Luke mentioned difference and that's why they're voting Marci
@Luke- can you talk me why you're thinking the bolded bit given scum!Marci would have been very likely expecting Bingle to die there since she pushed back against the wagon on me and voted Bingle?

• Day 1 Marci was very active. Like one of the top posters. Providing reads, asking questions, probing others peoples.
  
  During Day 2, Marci claimed Tracker, and no on CC'ed her (was in the newbie queue, and there was a possibility for there to be 1 or 2 PRs, turns out we only had 1). Because no one cc'ed her, and her stated investigation result for Day 1 was a correct guess (claimed did not move and the person was a VT), everyone believed her claim. Her partner ended up being voted that day.
  
  Starting Day 3, so once she was widely town locked by most of the player base and her partner was dead, her activity level dropped drastically. She hardly posted unless someone directly asked her a question or until someone eventually accused her of being a fake claim. Then she came back with somewhat of a defense.

Her play day 1 in that game was wildly different then her play day 1 this game, which is why I assumed she was town this game.

But her play today is very similar to her play starting Day 3 of that game. And I also see the possible similarities of her being near universally town read and 1 of the scum having already been eliminated.

[Lukewarm]

Robert said they TR bugs several times but did nothing to argue against the wagon is a negative point
they don't interact with or mention Flow whatsoever (pretty common for new scum to just ignore partners)
Robert says he has a SR but doesn't try and push anyone or vote even while a TR is being voted off (allegedly a stronger TR?)
the vote on Mo feels omgusey in retrospect

^ reading through the Robert iso with the knowledge it's scum that's what sticks out as sus

You convinced me

VOTE: Robert

[Lukewarm]

Honestly, I would rather be wrong then for this day to keep dragging on this way. Can we either hammer, or someone please come post a mind blowing 10 post long new case for us to all ooh and ahh over?

Spoiler:

At this point I wonder if scum might be dragging it out to kill town's will to play

[Lukewarm]

hold up! ^.^

Are you coming to make a mind blowing 10 post long new case for us to all ooh and ahh over?!?

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

You have time to get it out here

[Lukewarm]

If hopkirk does not vote soon, can we speed elim him for holding up the thread so long.

Spoiler:

Almost feels like griefing at this point

i'll reread today. if i don't then free to call me 'Hopdork' or equally mean names.

Like, this was nine days ago, and hopdork has still not been able to come up with a vote target.

[Lukewarm]

Especially the constant "I'll be back here in a day or two" But then he is obviously much more actively solving in other games see post 922.

And the fact that he is very active on site outside of this particular game. Like ~60 posts in one game in the last 24 hours.

[Lukewarm]

Honestly, VOTE: hopkirk

He very well might be town, but if that is how he is going to cause this game to be paced, I dread the idea of us both of us walking into Day 3 together.

[Lukewarm]

If his play is not scum, it is at the very least anti-town, because it has definitely made this town player lose all interest in trying to win this game

[Lukewarm]

@marci, I did read your post. Sorry for not immediately responding to it. Glad to see you trying to help solve. Not sure there is a lot for me to respond to though. I feel like everything in it has already been talked about, but there does not seem to be a lot more for us to be talking about in stead, so I can hardly hold that against you. This day should have ended a while ago.

[Lukewarm]

And the more I think about it, the more I think that there is a chance that he is scum here. Not like a 100%, but definitely not 0.

Everyone has stated a poe scum order in the thread, and no one has included hopkirk. So if he can kill motivation for this game today, then he could coast by on all subsequent days because no one will want to try and come up with a new solve, and just vote through their poe votes until we lose.

And this might explain why everyone's poe scum solve has not felt right to them, because we have all stop considering Hopkirk.

I think the longer this day stays open, the more of a case against hopkirk I am going to try and build.

Lets at least make the rest of today interesting while he is making us all sit here.

[Lukewarm]

Best guess of the strategy of a Hopkirk/Bingle game is that before the day started, they said "lets go into day 1 to make sure that no one will think we are partners, and then get Bingle voted out"

Hopkirk himself said that Bingle's push on him was over the top open wolfy. If we believe that, then we must assume that there was a reason Bingle would make this play, and oh look. What does Hopkirk say as soon as the bingle flip happens?

hey Luke do you read me as locktown now or do you want to die next?

So if anyone is looking for a player looking to capitalize on the bingle flip for town cred, I think I found it

[Lukewarm]

I have also heard Bingle specifically say that he would rather set up a team mate for a scum win then for him to cross the finish line himself. I believe he said that if he is ever the end game scum, then that means that something in his scum plan went terribly wrong.

[Lukewarm]

I think Bingle's iso actually makes a bit more sense if you read it thinking "Bingle is actively trying to get himself voted out today," even right from the very beginning. Look how quickly he was able to draw Not_Mafia and Norwee both to scum reading him, even though they literally started the game at eachother's throats

[Lukewarm]

The more I look at it this way, the happier I am settling into the idea that that is exactly what Bingle was trying to do.

And if that was actually the plan, who is the only player who got a hard lock town read from the entire thread after the Bingle flip?

Spoiler:

Hopkirk

.

[Lukewarm]

hold up! ^.^

Are you coming to make a mind blowing 10 post long new case for us to all ooh and ahh over?!?

Wait. All along, it was going to be me who was going to be the one bringing this?

[Lukewarm]

It would also explain why Bingle kept tring so many player. Me, Dunn, Marci, GL... But none of them felt right as his partners. None of them really followed up to get the town cred like you would have expected his partner to do. Like that is the very reason why people struggled to picture Dunn as his partner (pretty sure GL said this was why he discounted Dunn as his partner, if I am remembering correctly). This is why I originally TR Bingle a bit, because I felt like he was getting it dangerously close to the point where his partner was going to be outed Day 1 for an automatic loss.

And the answer to that conundrum was that he was always planning to die Day 1 (and why he self-hammered)

[Lukewarm]

@Marci

Vote Hopkirk

[Lukewarm]

By the way, I think this explains why I had such a hard time getting into the Vanderscamp wagon, and why I eventually ended up leaning town for Guilty Lion. And why GL's posts on Dunn not making sense as a partner are in the thread. And then I ended up poe-ing myself down to Marci, who I had as a hard town read before. Because no one in the PoE

feels

right, because the right answer just is not in the poe to begin with.

[Lukewarm]

Anyways, thank you for coming to my ted talk.

If I am correct, I will be accepting any and all praise in the post game.

@Not_Mafia

can you please weigh in on my theory?

I am done posting now, and would like to hear people's thoughts before we move on

[Lukewarm]

@Not_Mafia

can you please weigh in on my theory?

I am sorry it is so long.

Tl:dr -hopkirk is scum.

Slightly longer tl;dr
-Bingle started day 1 with the plan of getting voted out, which is why he managed to get both you and Norwee to scum read him pretty early
-He also did everything he could to make sure no one thought he could be partnered with hopkirk
-Literally every single player fell for it, and started Day 2 with a poe pool that did not include hopkirk (so no wagon really felt right)
-Hopkirk has tried to kill every players motivation for this game, so that we won't reevaluate on future days, and he can ride today's poe lists to a win.

[Lukewarm]

In case anyone missed that hopkirk is single handedly holding up the entire thread, which I very much think is killing motivation for this game (at least I know it is for me)

Spoiler:

i'll reread today. if i don't then free to call me 'Hopdork' or equally mean names.

i am too tired to reread properly

i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still

suffer

Prodding Hopkirk

I'm going to finish tomorrow (might stretch to Weds) because i am starting to find myself skipping and skimming stuff


Currently i'm between (Dunn or Vanders) i think?

Vanderscamp (2)Not voting (2) - Hopkirk, Lukewarm

i'll pur Marci on the iso list for tomorrow when i should be able to finish what i started without pesky interruptions

Not voting (2) - Hopkirk, GuiltyLion

so uh, i said i'd do stuff today but then i kind of played a few marathon games instead because it's pretty rare. fortunately i have no plans tomorrow so i will read all of the stuff i said i would

i didn't fully get the Marcy case from what i skimmed to date (not the isos, just recent posts since i last posted properly)

I'm not happy with a hammer right now because Dunn still hasn't posted Luke. Y'know, one of the two people I'm considering. I don't have enough to sort Dunn yet

He has been consistently and repeatedly telling us that he is going to to get back to us at a later date, and then we have all been waiting on him.

[Lukewarm]

In case anyone missed that hopkirk is single handedly holding up the entire thread, which I very much think is killing motivation for this game (at least I know it is for me)

Spoiler:

i'll reread today. if i don't then free to call me 'Hopdork' or equally mean names.

i am too tired to reread properly

i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still

suffer

Prodding Hopkirk

I'm going to finish tomorrow (might stretch to Weds) because i am starting to find myself skipping and skimming stuff


Currently i'm between (Dunn or Vanders) i think?

Vanderscamp (2)Not voting (2) - Hopkirk, Lukewarm

i'll pur Marci on the iso list for tomorrow when i should be able to finish what i started without pesky interruptions

Not voting (2) - Hopkirk, GuiltyLion

so uh, i said i'd do stuff today but then i kind of played a few marathon games instead because it's pretty rare. fortunately i have no plans tomorrow so i will read all of the stuff i said i would

i didn't fully get the Marcy case from what i skimmed to date (not the isos, just recent posts since i last posted properly)

I'm not happy with a hammer right now because Dunn still hasn't posted Luke. Y'know, one of the two people I'm considering. I don't have enough to sort Dunn yet

He has been consistently and repeatedly telling us that he is going to to get back to us at a later date, and then we have all been waiting on him.

And again, he has been much more active on site... just not this game

[Lukewarm]

Honestly, no other wagon feels right.

I have pushed back on GL's Vanders read, so feel free to look at that

I think I have actually ended up with a town lean on GL at this point

I agree with GL on Dunn here

Like if Dunn is scum, you have to believe he didn't try to gain any towncred from scumreading/distancing/pushing Bingle, nor did he try especially hard to protect him, and you have to believe he's happy to give flippant low-effort posts in thread even when most players are casting suspicion his way. It's possible but it just doesn't feel like The One True Answer to me.

I ended up voting Marci, who was a tr before, just because I poe'ed my way there.



And you know what, I still think Bingle is pretty good at this game, so looking back, I think that there is a question of "what was Bingle doing day 1" well, the result of his Day 1 was you getting an unbelievable amount of town cred. I think I would rather lean into that possibility over any one of the other people's who wagons feel wrong.

I don't know how useful a 1 v 1 back and forth will be, so I think I am heading to bed. Very interested in what everyone else thinks

[Lukewarm]

If it's Dunn then of course Bingle wasn't trying to make Dunn look good on a bingle scumflip. Dunn!scum was pushing me with bingle and they aren't intending a bingle flip. Not looking good in response to a scum partner flipping scum while they were pushing against the flip... I can see why that could be scum pretty clearly

Noted. Will move him above Marci in my vote list now

Hopkirk -> Dunn -> hopefully I am not alive at Elo

[Lukewarm]

D1 was him trying to exile me. If you thought it was convincing enough that you and your TR Dunn went along with it then don't try arguing it wasn't likely to go through.

Is this a slip? Because I am pretty sure that you spent 90% of this game saying that his push on you was a shit push, but now it was supposedly good enough to go through?

I know I fell for it because I was being White Knighted, but honestly, the point isn't if I thought it was going to go thought anyways. The point is, did Bingle think it was going to go through. And based on your reaction, I don't think that he or you thought it would

Spoiler: Hopkirk making it clear he did not think it was a convincing push

trying to draw my attention away from looking for scum with a shitpush?

i'm not giving Bingle the benefit of the doubt here because from what i've heard about him he

should

be too good to tunnel on something as stupid...i don't really buy him being this bad?

Current takes from me and my alts

Sarah- so like... scum don't shitpush this hard in practice so you're wrong on Bingle!scum

i'm probably overthinking things and the openwolf is just a wolf

And in the neighborhood "the fact that everything bingle said about me was stupid is what should have made you reconsider before Marci pointed it out to you"

[Lukewarm]

And remember,

@everyone

, bingle did not start making this push until after he got Not_Mafia and Norwee to start suspecting him.

By the way, one of the reasons i thought Bingle might be town is something i realized he didn't believe in the hood after all so i'm not really trusting Bingle over N_M anymore.

VOTE: Bingle

VOTE: Hopkirk

That by itself seems like a good way to insure that the push does not go through. Get scum read before you ever make it!

[Lukewarm]

I think there are two ways to look at Day 1. Bingle either absolutely shat the bed OR he was in fact openwolfing / making a shit push on purpose.

I would like to remind everyone that this is Bingle's second time in this set up, and in the first game, scum lost Day 1 by having the 6p mafia get voted. So coming at the game with a strategy designed to specifically stop that seems likely.


So, if you think Bingle just shat the bed, then I guess this arguement fall flat here, but if you think that Bingle did it on purpose, what did his partner gain from it? What player in the 6p thread interacted with Bingle / Bingle's push / Bingle's wagon in a way that would help set them up for a win.

Dunn? - If Bingle had a plan, Dunn did not capitalize on it
GL? - He did not either, I mean Not_Mafia walked into Day 2 with GL as his #1 choice
Marci? - Does she seem like she is following a plan right now? Do you think Marci would want to endgame for her entire team?
Vanders? - When I read though his ISO, I struggle to find anything to pull my read on him out of null to be honest? Does that should like it was following a plan?

Or Hopkirk? The person who got cleared by the entire thread because of how Bingle played?

I am suggesting that Bingle's plan was

• Get scum read in the 3p pool
  
• Steer the conversation full steam into a shit push on his partner to make sure no one thought they were a team
  
• Get voted out (and even self vote if necessary, because again, this was always the plan)
  
• His partner gets to sail though to a win because he has been cleared by every player in the game

[Lukewarm]

It was a shit push. You bought it though. If Dunn is town then he did too. A shit push doesn't mean a push that will never actually work with the scumteam hard pushing it, it means a push that's founded on shitty reasons

My point is that you/Bingle did not think it would go through.

quoting you from the neighborhood again to highlight that:
"the fact that everything bingle said about me was stupid is what should have made you reconsider"

I am pretty sure that the majority of the thread hated Bingle's push

Oh look, the people hating his push:

Bingle getting desperate

I don't think eliming someone just so we can elim other people is a good idea it seems very easy to backfire tbh!!

I strongly dislike bingle saying he's willing to hammer me,

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Reminder of how extremely scummy this post is and an memorabilia to the day Bingle got caught as a wolf.

That sure does sound like the resounding reaction everyone would have to a push that was designed to never go through.

[Lukewarm]

Good night

[Lukewarm]

@Everyone, If you only read 1 post from me from tonight, please read this one

my read/push on hopkirk originally started from frustration at the game state, and was not 100% serious. I was not having fun in this game, and asked myself "What could change that" and just started posting.

But by post 957 I have become 100% serious. (and the anit-motivation part of the push can be ignored tbh)

I do not think Bingle actually wanted Hopkirk to be eliminated Day 1.

I think that this post was designed to ensure that his push on Hopkirk never went through

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

I think that everyones reaction to that post sells that idea (especially Norwee's)

Spoiler:

Bingle getting desperate

I don't think eliming someone just so we can elim other people is a good idea it seems very easy to backfire tbh!!

I strongly dislike bingle saying he's willing to hammer me,

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Reminder of how extremely scummy this post is and an memorabilia to the day Bingle got caught as a wolf.

But even I, someone who was town reading Bingle and scum reading hopkirk, really did not like the idea of trading Vanders for Hopkirk, seen here

Spoiler:

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

That post from Bingle effectively convinced everyone to be down for Bingle to die day 1, and I think he made it because he did not actually want the Hopkirk wagon to go through (if you are wondering why he had to die there, see me and Dunn both independently pushing for Hopkirk to be eliminated Day 1 in addition to his own shitpush).

I think that this is why no wagon has felt right this game, and why no one seems to have really capitalized on building towncred on a Bingle bus the way you would have expected from his partner.

----

I also think that hopkirk was not expecting the turn around here. His counter argument that Bingle's case was convincing enough that I should not try to argue that it wasn't likely to go through (post 958) I think betrays that. I think he stated "this is what we want you to think about mine and bingles interactions from day 1" instead of what he genuinely things, because the claim in 958 is fairly incompatible to how he has described Bingle's push every other time up to now. Every other time, it was basically saying that "that everything bingle said about me was stupid" and basically no one (well, me, I) should have ever fallen for it... until saying that it could have gone through could be used as a defense.

@Dunn, look back at your scum read on Hopkirk Day 1. Do the things you found suspicious still seem suspicious to you if you are reexamining him now?

[Lukewarm]

where i play usually with meuh, people hate on anyone for pushing someone based on their online status / if they've posted recently. there could be many reasons on why hes doing it, not always scummy intentions.
i dont really think hes scum, the way hes been replying doesnt feel like it to me.

my read/push on hopkirk originally started from frustration at the game state, and was not 100% serious. I was not having fun in this game, and asked myself "What could change that" and just started posting.

But by post 957 I have become 100% serious. (and the anit-motivation part of the push can be ignored tbh)

We can ignore all of that. Not really a part of my serious time push. My actual, 100% serious push, is that Bingle never really wanted his push on Hopkirk to go through. It was a fake push designed to fail, so that everyone would townbin hopkirk (which everyone did).

That is why no other wagon feel right and why no one else seemed to really capitalize on a Bingle bus.

[Lukewarm]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

Do you have anything else?

Yeah: I'm ready to proceed to an elimination

Dunn, can you explain your Day 1 scum read on Hopkirk or at least tell us if those concerns went away?

[Lukewarm]

also full disclosure i uh... asked whether you thought you were playing differently before looking back through your games. it's a pretty fun question to ask people

Also, uhhh. This does not seem genuine. Because he did not ask me whether I thought I was playing differently - he accused me of being "really really different"

Which is not the same thing, and the actual thing he said makes a lot less sense to have come from him if he genuinely had not read my prior games.

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games. what's up with that luke?

[Lukewarm]

And like post 356 was made and, and he supposedly had not read my past games yet at this point.

Which makes it hard to believe he was then able to whip up 372 and 376, where he has supposedly now had time to look over 3 different games, pull a million quotes from them, summarize and analyze my play style in all three games compared to this one, it he had not even looked over the games yet like 2 posts back in his ISO

[Lukewarm]

Like, just looking at his trajectory on me

356 -> 363 -> 372 -> 376 -> 378 -> 380 -> 422 -> 426

To suddenly in 431 claiming that he started that trajectory without having actually read the games to begin with.

His original trajectory seemed way too consistent from the very first post for it to have started before he read the games.

So did town!hopkirk make the accusation that I was very different then my prior games without having read them, then went and read them, and then made a case trying to prove the accusation that me made without reading them?

Do did scum!hopkirk make a case against me, and eventually try to back away from it in 431?

[Lukewarm]

btw my 60 posts lastnight were a scumgame that just finished lol

yeah I SR you a bit then i read your games because of that and SR more after. it's very logical

My point is not that you SR me, then read my games.

My point is that you said "luke is really really different in this game then his past games" and then apparently started reading my games and then apparently found evidence that happened to support the accusation you had already made.

[Lukewarm]

nah, i asked if

you

thought you were playing differently. i've asked that a bunch of times in the past, there it was with intent to bear in mind your response

This is false.

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games

. what's up with that luke?

You did not ask me if I thought I was playing differently, you accused me of being "really really different"

[Lukewarm]

@everyone, have reached deathtunnel levels of confidence in this. No other wagon feels anywhere close to being this right.

If we do not vote hopkirk before Elo, then we will most likely make it all the way to elo with me + hopkirk + someone else, where I will then vote hopkirk.

If I have convinced you that hopkirk is scum, then we should go ahead and kill him off now.
If you still think that hopkirk is town, then you still need to vote him off (or me i guess) because that means we will lose at Elo

So, either way, I think Hopkirk should die today

Every other player has been really uncertain of their cases, but now that I have reached this point no scum will ever kill me or hopkirk. No other scum would kill me, because I have become their best chance to win, and that means hopkirk can't kill me because he is the only scum player that might benefit from me dying.

So, unless you are 100% sure of your case, I ask that you help me here. Otherwise, we are setting ourselves up for one hell of an Elo down the line.

[Lukewarm]

so this means you're saying we need to vote

you

off before lylo? lol

I think that one of us absolutely needs to go. Me and you both making it to Elo sounds like a nightmare for town tbh.

[Lukewarm]

nah, i asked if

you

thought you were playing differently. i've asked that a bunch of times in the past, there it was with intent to bear in mind your response

This is false.

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games

. what's up with that luke?

You did not ask me if I thought I was playing differently, you accused me of being "really really different"

No comment here?

[Lukewarm]

Hopkirk was closest of anyone getting eliminated D1 and it's really only due to N_M, nEE, and Vanders that he wasn't.

Was it due to n_m, Norwee, and Vanders? Or was it because Bingle made the "I will hammer Vanders if we speed elim hopkirk tomorrow" post?

Because, from my pov, that post from Bingle is the biggest thing that stopped the hopkirk wagon from passing. Look at how literally every player in the thread reacted to that post?

Do you think that Bingle believed that post would help him push out hopkirk? If so, he wildly misjudged how the thread would have reacted to it.

And, why do you think Bingle self voted instead of continuing to try and whip up votes against hopkirk, when I was still there trying to convince people?

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Dunn

Pretty sure that is the hammer.

Hopefully the game just ends

But, I have my doubts :/

[Lukewarm]

And you are the one who convinced me of that

Like if Dunn is scum, you have to believe he didn't try to gain any towncred from scumreading/distancing/pushing Bingle, nor did he try especially hard to protect him, and you have to believe he's happy to give flippant low-effort posts in thread even when most players are casting suspicion his way. It's possible but it just doesn't feel like The One True Answer to me.

2) scum!Dunn avoided the GL/Vander TvT entirely and opted to push a marci miselimination without any real support yet from other townies

[Lukewarm]

Bingle tanked himself end of Day 1, and I just don't see that he did that in a way that would benefit Dunn at all

[Lukewarm]

I'm town

I know, that is why I kept asking for you to look at my hopkirk case

[Lukewarm]

It was a shit push. You bought it though. If Dunn is town then he did too. A shit push doesn't mean a push that will never actually work with the scumteam hard pushing it, it means a push that's founded on shitty reasons

My point is that you/Bingle did not think it would go through.

quoting you from the neighborhood again to highlight that:
"the fact that everything bingle said about me was stupid is what should have made you reconsider"

I am pretty sure that the majority of the thread hated Bingle's push

Oh look, the people hating his push:

Bingle getting desperate

I don't think eliming someone just so we can elim other people is a good idea it seems very easy to backfire tbh!!

I strongly dislike bingle saying he's willing to hammer me,

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Reminder of how extremely scummy this post is and an memorabilia to the day Bingle got caught as a wolf.

That sure does sound like the resounding reaction everyone would have to a push that was designed to never go through.

If you are still here NM, this is my main point. Basically, I don't think Bingle never wanted a hopkirk elimination Day 1. That is why his case was so bad.

[Lukewarm]

And you are the one who convinced me of that

Like if Dunn is scum, you have to believe he didn't try to gain any towncred from scumreading/distancing/pushing Bingle, nor did he try especially hard to protect him, and you have to believe he's happy to give flippant low-effort posts in thread even when most players are casting suspicion his way. It's possible but it just doesn't feel like The One True Answer to me.

2) scum!Dunn avoided the GL/Vander TvT entirely and opted to push a marci miselimination without any real support yet from other townies

Yah, I mean I have still have those doubts too, there are good reasons to think Dunn isn't scum but there are good reasons to think everybody isn't scum.

Lukewarm what were your thoughts on marci's last few posts? I felt they were town

Yeah, I ended back up with her town too. I only ever voted her because I poe'ed myself down to her.

[Lukewarm]

I'm town

I know, that is why I kept asking for you to look at my hopkirk case

I read it

If Dunn flips town, who would you push the vote towards tomorrow?

[Lukewarm]

I am a bit frustrated about the wagon passing, when I just asked Dunn several questions, and was waiting to hear back from him.

:/

[Lukewarm]

It was a fake push designed to fail, so that everyone would townbin hopkirk (which everyone did).

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

I think that one of us absolutely needs to go. Me and you both making it to Elo sounds like a nightmare for town tbh.

i think u rlly need to like... do sumn else for a bit and come back with a fresher pair of eyes.
if ur both town this will lead to failure probs.

marci, Dunn is pushing to eliminate you today and has been low engagement/content compared to most other slots in the game. I'm having a hard time understanding why town in your shoes would think he's not worth looking at?

i dont mind if he wants to elim me, i think itll be good for town no matter what i flip
i think hes townie because like, he gives vibes like other inactive styles ive seen before.
when hes been here tho, he doesnt really seem like he has much of a motive.. nothing hes posted really feels off. if he was scum, i think he wouldn't be letting himself have such a game like hes had so far.
inactives are usually the easiest to push from what i know, which makes a dunnstral bandwagon seem a bit ykyk?

VOTE: Dunnstral

is jumping from popular bandwagon to popular bandwagon something intentional..?

Of course I will reconsider my stances after every flip.

I may have been hyperbolic to try and whip up votes.

I am not actually 100% sure that it is Hopkirk, but I do not think that it is an impossibility. I started posting expecting to make a joke case on him (mainly just trying to get him to vote tbh, because this game day reached the point of being very un-fun), and then saw that there was a real case to be made.

I do feel like every wagon we have build has felt wrong and I do feel like locktowning Hopkirk over Bingle pushing him is not smart, given the fact that Bingle appears to sink his own push against Hopkirk.

So, I pushed hard to put the case out there so that everyone would at least look at it and consider it.

When I am making a push, I think I genearlly come across was more convinced then I really am.

Spoiler:

Like last game I really was at a 50/50 between you and catboi, but pushed catboi hard because I wanted to make sure we all considered that possibility, and did not let him single handedly change the direction of the town

[Lukewarm]

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

Want to explain why you have him as a TR other then the stuff with Bingle?

[Lukewarm]

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

Want to explain why you have him as a TR other then the stuff with Bingle?

If the thread locks, can you put this in the neighborhood? Gives you time to get it out even if you might be NK'ed

[Lukewarm]

Sorry, this weekend has been very busy.

I still think Dunn is the scummiest person, I think this progression is very weird and likely just sheeping the recent Marci scumreads

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

IMO the wishy-washyness I'm seeing from Marci right now feels like scum

VOTE: marcistar

If it is not marci then I don't really know

Luckily for you, Dunn has already been hammered. We are just waiting in Twilight atm

[Lukewarm]

bro

?

[Lukewarm]

?

whats ur tierlist bestie

I think that it is probably Vanders or Hopkirk.

[Lukewarm]

bro

What made you open up the thread with this?

[Lukewarm]

bro

What made you open up the thread with this?

it felt weird that i got in before anyone else

im so confused on whos scum tbh! r u sure ur not it bestie?

Im sure. I was confused for a second, because Not_Mafia was obviously going to be killed, so I was like "what is she reacting to"

Turns out it was being first in the thread lol

[Lukewarm]

Marci, if you had to decide the vote today, who would you eliminate?

I know this was not directed at me, but I am gonna answer anyways!

I would eliminate hopkirk because I hate the idea of us both going to elo. Both because I am pretty sure that I will confirm bias myself into voting him, and because I am pretty sure he will be able to convince the other person to vote me over him, so if he is town we lose and if he is scum we lose.

But I also know that no one wants to follow me there, so I guess Vanders.