Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

if Ydra/Datisi both flip town I think HQ/Shiro has to go next

Alyssa, RH9, S_S, Galron - agree or disagree?

[GuiltyLion]

if Ydra/Datisi both flip town I think HQ/Shiro has to go next

Alyssa, RH9, S_S, Galron - agree or disagree?

if everyone's on board with this I probably don't have much else I really want to discuss today

because if Ydra/Datisi DOES have scum then my reads are just way off and I'm not going to be as useful as you all once you have that info

and if they don't then I just want to repeatedly emphasize that HQ/Shiro has to go first and has best odds of scum in it, and I will probably start incessantly quoting this post for the rest of the day if I get a bunch of HQ spam. but I trust S_S and Alyssa to take it seriously

[GuiltyLion]

if Ydra/Datisi both flip town I think HQ/Shiro has to go next

Alyssa, RH9, S_S, Galron - agree or disagree?

lololol, Andante was very clearly trying to hardbus one of me/Shiro.

Yep, makes total sense.

I mean, you're alive your pair didn't die, and you're using Andante's push for towncred, so what is so ridiculous about it?

[GuiltyLion]

If gl actually flips town here, I will legit be gobsmacked.

fake bravado

if you're town, you'd be truly better served to never make this kind of post. All this does is look worse on you when I flip green today

[GuiltyLion]

I don’t think I want to vote RH9 or gl now.

If gl actually flips town here, I will legit be gobsmacked.

how is this a real progreession

what happened in the course of one day that had you go from "I'm not sure I want to vote GL" to "if GL is town I will be ~ GOBSMACKED ~"

I barely even posted in between

[GuiltyLion]

"Working overtime" is an extremely generous phrase for what Andante was pushing and how much influence she had

and she was mighty quick to hop over to STD/Titus the second that became an option

[GuiltyLion]

This does seem like an odd progression from HQ.

What’s even remotely “odd” about it? At the start of the day, his takes seemed townie but his most recent posts are off the charts scummy.

saying that I'm fine with being limmed, hoping that Dats/Ydra has scum in it but insisting to lim your pair next if it doesn't, is "scummy"? Why? What does scum!GL gain from that, especially if I'm partnered with Ydra and about to flip red? What convinced you that I am scum?

[GuiltyLion]

if Harley was actually confident that I was scum, she wouldn't need to argue with me at all here, it's somewhat obvious Datisi and I get limmed in most universes today

it's hard for me not to see this instead as preemptively trying to discredit me so that my words advocating for Shiro/HQ pair to be flipped will hold less power and get buried under her spam

[GuiltyLion]

if Ydra/Datisi both flip town I think HQ/Shiro has to go next

Alyssa, RH9, S_S, Galron - agree or disagree?

if everyone's on board with this I probably don't have much else I really want to discuss today

because if Ydra/Datisi DOES have scum then my reads are just way off and I'm not going to be as useful as you all once you have that info

and if they don't then I just want to repeatedly emphasize that HQ/Shiro has to go first and has best odds of scum in it, and I will probably start incessantly quoting this post for the rest of the day if I get a bunch of HQ spam. but I trust S_S and Alyssa to take it seriously

[GuiltyLion]

Tin foil: Could it br gl/RH9?

lmao

way to make it obvious you didn't pay any attention yesterday

I was pushing RH9 the entire day

[GuiltyLion]

if you claim to deserve towncred from Andante "working overtime" to push you yesterday then by the same anti-bussing logic there are 0 universes where I am scum with RH9

[GuiltyLion]

I AM paying attention and I’m starting to doubt Ydra scum now.

why? Just based on my posts?

again, makes no sense as a real thought process. if you thought I was scum, everything I'd be posting at this point would be WIFOM meant to hide my buddies. You absolutely shouldn't be drawing anything to influence your reads on other players based on anything I've posted in the past 3 hours

like, what

[GuiltyLion]

I think it’s gl/RH9.

faaaaaaaaaake

[GuiltyLion]

why does she think YOU are scum? based on what?

why does she think GL/RH9 makes a lick of sense when I was pushing you repeatedly yesterday to the point where I started 1v1ing with your dance partner? Why would I try to bus my partner who has a far better chance of endgaming than me?

here's the alternate theory, she's scumreading you because she realized she's going to need a new push as soon as Datisi/GL flip town.

[GuiltyLion]

this gl/harley argument is a waste of time

I actually don't think it is

like maybe it's a waste in that we end of the lim today but Harley is suddenly very concerned about burying me here as soon as I made it clear I don't think her pair should be endgame. I'd highly encourage everyone to reread it after I flip

[GuiltyLion]

Datisi, does anything change if Ydra flips maf?

not particularly. i haven't spend any time thinking about who would be certain people's possible partner and i'm not gonna start now - i don't think anyone in this game is gonna care about anything i say, even when it gets shown it was from a time mindset, considering everyone's just ignoring fire rn.

The deal is no one is going to listen to anyone's town read on their partner, sure. But as far as other reads, absolutely valid.

I guess here's the order I'd like to see:

Datisi/Guilty Lion
Taly/Ydrasse
Harley/Shiro

Although I think Taly already gave notice -- are you still doing that Taly?

I somehow missed this Galron post earlier but it's a good post

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Shiro

I genuinely hate that this is literally forced

Fuck this game

I'm not understanding why it's forced? like you could lim Datisi/me, and Taly could decide to leave, and then if no scum flipped it's still possible for the four of Galron, S_S, you, RH9 to vote them?

[GuiltyLion]

If you're OK with this as an elimination order, why after the IC?

I don't think Ydra scum flip would mean people don't want to lim Datisi/me anymore, so I guess it doesn't feel like it matters much and you should be around longer to sort things in case Datisi does flip red

[GuiltyLion]

Shiro don't forget that HQ voted Titus/STD yesterday

[GuiltyLion]

This is a serious last ditch effort to save scum 100%

I can't believe this to be anything else..

like let's remember this was your position yesterday on Titus/STD wagon

and you are saying you believe the scum making the "last ditch effort" to save Andante was Datisi?

if Datisi and I flip T/T, does that change your read on HQ?

[GuiltyLion]

didn't she post the exact same thing as scum in Slaughter Hour

[GuiltyLion]

didn't she post the exact same thing as scum in Slaughter Hour

You weren't in Slaughter Hour were you?

no but I read along a bit when the game was in LIMLO and dug through the peta/HQ drama when it was referenced

[GuiltyLion]

I've convinced myself that Shiro/HQ has to have at least one scum in it for this game to make sense

and the tinfoil is that's an S-S pairing

I just can't empathize with why they are so 100% locktown on each other at the end of the day, in spite of a lot of other slots being objectively townier

and then they use the fact that those other slots are townie to box me into a hole, because I didn't scumread any of Titus/STD/Galron/S_S but whenever I tried to find scum either in their pair or outside of it that was apparently scummy of me to do because in their views everyone is town except exactly Datisi/GL/Ydrasse

[GuiltyLion]

He did

what???

as soon as marci flipped scum I was pretty much locktown on Titus, and while I was never certain about STD I never really felt he was scummy

I wasn't around when the Titus/STD wagon formed and as soon as I came back I spoke against it in 6018 and 6024

[GuiltyLion]

GL, I'd like your readslist.

{Datisi, Fire, Titus}
{STD, S_S, Galron}
{Alyssa, Andante}
{Shiro, HQ, RH9}

I don't wanna lim anybody in the upper two tiers and I'm fine with anyone in the bottom two tiers flipping. top tier is people I'd probably bet the game on being town, second tier is I feel good about them and would only revisit if there were some really surprising flips, third tier is I feel one of these must be POE scum but I haven't got anything super strong against them, bottom tier I really don't feel they've done anything they wouldn't do as scum and I don't feel like they're solving or were vested in limming scum!marci

my reads largely stayed here pretty much the entire D2, D3 I have been trying to re-evaluate on RH9 cause I don't think he and Andante look especially partnery and I put my thoughts on that in 6090

which everyone seemed to have kinda ignored

I never once wanted a STD/Titus wagon at any point

[GuiltyLion]

Shiro has done several things to have me consider that they are informed because they join a conversation at just the optimal moment to dignify their perception. The marci scumread. Surmising that Ydrasse/I won't die and then we don't. Using Titus/Dragon's townflip to support his solve on Ydra/Datisi.

I would also add the "this is a last ditch effort to save scum" comment (referring to the STD/Titus wagon) to this, btw. Could easily be designed to make Shiro look good on Andante flip. And if that

is

his honest belief, I think he should be like 10x more paranoid of HQ than he is projecting. Her vote was the worst of all the STD/Titus voters.

RH9 was a little odd in terms of timing but the way he executed it feels pure to me. Though if people have different views on that they should bring them forward

[GuiltyLion]

I go sleep for a few hours and you guys went ahead to try and yeet StD and Titus,

What the hell are you all doing?

This is a serious last ditch effort to save scum 100%

I can't believe this to be anything else..

These posts, to be clear

[GuiltyLion]

Will it be though or they will attempt to make you go for Alyssa and RH

nah we absolutely have to be next if you are T/T, solely because if we aren't and we are T-T then it's instant gg

[GuiltyLion]

I don't want to be the game losing LIMLO elimination

[GuiltyLion]

nah we absolutely have to be next if you are T/T, solely because if we aren't and we are T-T then it's instant gg

I phrased this absolutely terribly but hopefully the meaning is clear, if we (Datisi/GL) are not [the next to go on Shiro/HQ T-T], then [the game will be lost because Datisi/GL will get eliminated in LIMLO]

was the idea

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Shiro-Harley Quinn

[GuiltyLion]

no, definitely don't leave

I think for completeness sake we should know where Smart/RH9 stand on everything, I'm not sure at all who they want to flip here and why

[GuiltyLion]

Once again, flips spew us town. Andante tries to kill me all game. Titus locktowns us with STD not a consensus sr. Flaming obvscim!gl tmi’d dats/Ydra town. We are obviously never scum with gl and you would all realize that if you listened to Titus.

And Fire lock towned me and Datisi, so we're tied on dead townies locktowning us. And everyone wanted to get Fire out of the game by way of Andante

HQ I promise I will roll over and accept the lim if your pair is T-T. It means we prob lose this game, but you have my word

[GuiltyLion]

Aaah wow

Let's hope Datisi is scum I guess

I'm doing New Years stuff so I probably can't really play much tonight. If yall give me time I might reread and give final opinions tomorrow but I won't complain if we're limmed quickly. I think probably Galron is scum, Galron and RH9 maybe if both Ydra and Dats are town.

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah :/ I wish I had good news for you, at least as far as my alignment goes, but alas I do not

[GuiltyLion]

I think probably Galron is scum, Galron and RH9 maybe if both Ydra and Dats are town.

Remind me why you townread Ydrasse again?

I'm really skeptical that scum were confident enough in Taly doubting her to stake the game on it.

I don't townread her all that much especially the NK I think generally implicates her. And I remember back to the "recipe for disaster" comment which I still think was kinda weird

I've just tried to play around assuming she is town cause she shouldn't endgame at all here

[GuiltyLion]

I declare my intent to leave if GL flips scum.

this is kind of a pointless comment though RH9 cause I'm not flipping scum

also I still think the idea of RH9/GL being the team is absurd lol

[GuiltyLion]

well I was hoping to muster up more energy to like, Really Care, but I haven't been able to do that yet today (hangover certainly isn't helping...)

happy New Year to you all btw!!

I think my main thought here at the moment is like,

assuming Datisi is town

(which I think he is), I think it's better to take a shot in one of the pairs prior to Taly leaving. There'd be guaranteed scum in one of them and I think Ydra would be easier to sort correctly if you had the third member of the scumteam flipped rather than trying to bet the game on her alignment solely based on marci/Andante.

I'm kinda worried the deepwolf is Smart, I'd be curious to understand whether/why Alyssa has him at locktown still. If he's scum he's played a tremendous game but when the game starts feeling really difficult like this it means whoever is scum is playing a tremendous game and I still still still kinda feel some kind of way about Cabd's catboi read, especially knowing now that catboi was town.

I want to review Smart's associatives but haven't done that yet. and if it's not Smart I could see it being Galron. The thing I'm worried about is both pairs being T-S and Ydra miselim being the game loser

[GuiltyLion]

I said this in the PT and Datisi corroborated it a couple pages ago, but I feel I actually have the best town!case for Alyssa of all the players remaining? Obviously I'd look like a massive idiot if I'm wrong but I think if she powerbussed Andante she basically made the game way harder for herself than it needed to be at that point (again assuming Datisi town), and I kinda buy the reasoning for limming Shiro/HQ yesterday as that would be the pair most likely to become impossible to lim if there was scum in it.

The only way I see scum!Alyssa is if her partner is RH9 and she's like totally banking on endgaming as a pair, but that feels pretty unlikely overall and I don't think RH9's play vibes that way

[GuiltyLion]

btw I do not envy you Taly. this game is hard and unless Datisi flips scum will continue to remain hard

[GuiltyLion]

Can you give the exact quotes from Aly's ISO that lead you to this conclusion?

This whole sequence where she jumpstarted an Andante wagon:

I find her copying of my reads/pushes to be concerning but ive been chalking it down as she isn't invested and she just townreads me. I have no idea or trust on my read on her. I am not gonna sit here and play defense on our lim.

okay, I looked at a few of her past games and noted some rather interesting things

She's capable of top posting as town in fast paced games, as well as keeping up
She's capable of expressing thoughts as they come to her as town
She's expressed a similar type of response to being suspected in one of her scumgames
She's expressed pretty over the top emotions in one of her scumgames

There's also something particularly interesting I noted in her ISO at some point, but I'll have to see if I want to post quotes about it or not

I noticed it particularly when I was doing the homework that Taly and I agreed to do a few days ago

she had the single worst trajectory towards townreading me of every player in the game, and it's actually one that I strongly suspect was influenced by the scum PT in some way because of how unnatural it is

I find her copying of my reads/pushes to be concerning but ive been chalking it down as she isn't invested and she just townreads me. I have no idea or trust on my read on her. I am not gonna sit here and play defense on our lim.

okay, I looked at a few of her past games and noted some rather interesting things

She's capable of top posting as town in fast paced games, as well as keeping up
She's capable of expressing thoughts as they come to her as town
She's expressed a similar type of response to being suspected in one of her scumgames
She's expressed pretty over the top emotions in one of her scumgames

There's also something particularly interesting I noted in her ISO at some point, but I'll have to see if I want to post quotes about it or not

She's capable of top posting as town in fast paced games, as well as keeping up - Yeah that's a fact, I never said I was incapable of it here, I've been busy with real life, preventing me from sitting here 24/7 posting. Usually I just do nothing IRL and post a lot, it's super bad, I'll get nothing done

She's capable of expressing thoughts as they come to her as town- Yeah, I've been doing so here?

She's expressed a similar type of response to being suspected in one of her scumgames - Uh I only have 1 recent scum game I believe, No town, everything else is a lot older, so I'm glad we're using meta!!

She's expressed pretty over the top emotions in one of her scumgames - feel free to link a game, cause I can definitely go find you a passionate towngame lol


So what I'm hearing is "Andante hasn't done anything this game and is perfectly capable of it"
And to that I say, yeah I know. I am. However, there is 5000 posts and I've probably read no more than 3000 of them, and every single page is just spam/people repeating the same stuff, so I'm just like "whatever... not worth my time" And when I am here no one wants to interact with me, I think RH9 is the only one who has, so I'm litterally just having a good time, listening to stuff said, and agreeing/disagreeing with stuff. it's not really that hard. not my fault I've literally been ignored 90% of the time I've been here

the individual parts by themselves don't mean anything

together they paint that you find it easier to get engaged into a game as town and tend to push your emotions more when you're scum, probably as a way to compensate for not being able to push it with your thoughts naturally when they're not genuine

just based on what I've seen from this game, that is an entirely reasonable read on your personality

what I've noticed is that you've been struggling to maintain your emotions while providing thoughts at the same time

I'm not seeing you just post stuff whenever you think of it, it looks a lot more manufactured than that

I've noticed quite a few times where you start with an overexaggerated show of emotion before throwing out a bunch of posts or general thoughts all at once; a lot of the times you don't, there's really not much there relevant to the game itself

and I've seen very little emotion a lot of the time you do have game progressing thoughts, they're very commonly separated from each other

Spoiler:

Gentlemen
Galron
Datisi*
Catboi *
Marcistar *
RH9


Ladies
Prism NorwegianboyEE
GuiltyLion
Cabd Something_Smart *
angielily *
Alyssa the Lamb
Malakittens *


Let me ship some more people.
catboi + Malakittens - obvious reason. strongest ship!
marci + angie - they both want to be partners yet people were all "NOOOO" I ship it
dats + SS - both are hard to read, I think they'd be funny trying to work together - perfect ship
Galron + Lion - Galron + Lion = PERFECT
RH9 + Alyssa - We're not leaving Alyssa behind!


gg I solved the pairs. now lets make them happen

Norwee and Titus, it literally feels like anytime I say anything both yall just go "ew" or" yeah andante scum" like seriously, this is getting old. rather than just head to bed I figured I'd jumpin here, try and talk with people, but literally when yall say stuff like you do, it makes me not even care anymore. last time it was Titus, this time it's Norwee, like seriously. if yall hate what I'm saying so much, tell me what you want. not just "give me reads list" like if yall are town, you should be trying to realize I'm actually town, cause let me say, the way people are acting towards me this game is the biggest reason I'm lacking any motivation to care.

I can relate but your not one of the people I hold responsible for that in my case anyway. So who do you think is scum here? I don’t think it’s you because of Happy Face but I’m not sure who is yet.

Well I was going to look for this s/s pair that I believe we have tonight, I figured that's a good start, but we have killed my mood for the night so that's not happening, and I also really need to find t/t pairs, cause my normal ISO strat is going to go nowhere with all the replacements. I'm just gonna get a good nights sleep and comeback to this.
Like, I know I haven't outed strong reads like everyone or whatever, but truth is, there's been nothing I felt was read worthy, I felt like saying "oh hey these gentlemen are scum" cause that's what others were doing, and I figured I'd gain reactions. nope. I have no idea how people were outing super confident "endgame reads" before we even got the mala flip, like, idk, I'd play this game completely differently to how everyone else is playing, and that's why we're at 2500 posts, and most people don't have mega confident reads... Alyssa is like the main person I've liked though, she's felt very relatable with a lot of comments made, so gun to my head, she's town. like, there was a comment like "I should just disappear till pairs are done" and I was sitting here like, yeah same... and not pulling up her ISO, she had other ones when I was like "yep. I'm feeling exactly the same right now" plus her passing on fire when scum!Alyssa easily could've paired with fire, and like, waited late to pair? she's probably town, but a singular townread gets me nowhere here without having a read on the partner, and I have no read on RH9 yet

Everybody, rank each pair (except mine - calling IC privilege) on how likely you believe scum resides in them.

Town
Firebringer + Andante - Fireis town
Galron + Something_Smart - no reads on either, so by poe they're here
RH9 + Alyssa The Lamb - Alyssa I TR, RH9 is mehhh
Datisi + Guiltylion - Datisi scum lean
Marcistar + NorwegianboyEE - Norwee scum
Save The Dragons + Titus - Titus and Dragons are SRs
Shiro + Harley Quinn - Harley scum
Scum

oooh I have barely any reads, but I do TR alyssa!!! I actually already explained why too!! To not tr alyssa here? interesting

I agree with alyssa rh9 as endgame pair

I said I would stop talking to Harley, goddammit. This feels like actual productive discussion though.

Anyway I townread both RH9 and Alyssa. RH9 because as previously mentioned he sent out three proposals pretty late in pre-dance and he strikes me as the type to plan out his pairings more carefully as scum whereas that feels like genuine fear of getting left with a shit partner. His current play is not towny per se but he got enough towncred to be accepted by Alyssa and he doesn't seem to be trying to take advantage of that at all.

Alyssa... feels... like town? I know she would say this is bullshit, and it probably is. But the way she has reacted to the game, especially today, does not feel like she's trying to control it, at a time when the gamestate is very volatile and scum getting control of it would be extremely valuable to them.

And to S_S, why is not trying to control the game town indicative? If the game is currently in a state where scum doesn't need to care, why would theoretical scum!Alyssa care too?
Essentially when Harley has dominated most of the discourse lately. I don't see why scum should need to bother at all.

Wait yeah, why would not controlling the game be town indicative? if town is leading themselves down the wrong path, there's no need for maf to step in. Town is clearly wrong somewhere, that's why Mala, the town, was left behind

I'm struggling for scumreads if slots I previously suspected like S_S (or HQ) might be town, and I don't really have a particularly compelling reason to think you've done anything this game that you couldn't do as scum. I think you have a fair point that you have posted similarly shallow/fake-sounding posts as town, but it's really hard for me to look at anything you've posted and feel like scum!RH9 can't or wouldn't post that. The "fake" feeling is that a lot of your posts feel to me like an emulation of what you think solving sounds like, like you're trying to post things you think you would post as town rather than posting genuinely

I love that GL is admitting this, like, yeah. Reads aren't easy here, and so many people are trying to make this black and white, like, it feels good to know I'm not the only one struggling on reads,like sure the exact struggles are different, but the concept is there. And people with 2-3 endgame pairs?? bruh.. Alyssa RH9 is like the only pair I'd really feel comfortable with at the moment, and even then, if I saw a compelling case against RH9, I may reconsider.
It's just super annoying to come back 12 hours later, to 10+ pages of people "solving" and no clear outcome after spamming stuff, so then I'm behind. and I like real time interactions, but missing context means I have to go read ISOs/whatnot then I just missed a few pages of real time talk, so that's why I really want to sit down, and figure out where my head is at, but bydoing that I know it ends in a tunnel, which ehhhh I'd rather do this, but by doing this, I have no read on half the table. tldr, I'm just trying to keep up, Fire and I do nothing in the PT, I'm kinda having doubts on fire, but it's a later issue, I legit thought he'd lol leave by now, also why I've been hesitant to really do a whole lot, cause yeah.

good times, I went on an irrelevant tangent, but what's new?

this set of posts is every single one where she indicates any kind of read on me, including one extra one that may or may not be interesting to somebody else, personally it isn't really to me

I mentioned at some point before that I thought all these townreads on me was particularly bizarre, since while I do think I was out of my scumrange by the end of predance, it was in a way that I don't think anyone here is able to accurately judge.

it's entirely possible I guess that Andante is particularly susceptible to emotional displays being from town, but the way her trajectory on me evolves to the point where she's confident on that one read when there's next to no others and wanting my pairing to endgame despite not having any particularly strong read on RH9 reads as a buddying attempt, which simultaneously means that there's higher odds that somebody who considers me a threat is on the scumteam

all of those posts were made after Titus and Something_Smart replaced in, and both HQ/Shiro replaced in between the first and second posts. This does kind of correlate since I would expect that more from Titus/Something_Smart/HarleyQuinn/Shiro than any of LadyLambdadelta/Cabd/Catboi/Angielily

I'd honestly expect that more from those four specific players than the majority of the rest of the playerlist, actually, so Andante flipping scum in this game probably means that my reads really do need to be adjusted around that in the case that it happens

if this was a bus, it was a Bus To Kill, and I don't see why scum!Alyssa needs to make that move there. It'd probably be a game winning move if she is scum, but the vast majority of scum players on this site, even the good ones, don't go through this much effort unless they feel it's absolutely necessary to win. It's far easier to just not waste your energy devastatingly casing your partner like this, especially when there's a massive TvT clogging up the thread

[GuiltyLion]

I have a proposition for you Taly

if you can ever be confident about a townread on Ydrasse, we just nuke every other pairing

I like this plan

The biggest thing that vexes me is... if

Ydra's

town, why are we still alive?

I'm not super opposed to this. I trust Taly to have a Ydra read worth betting the game on. And I still think no matter what, even if we're iffy on Ydra, we'd have better odds taking a shot in one of the unknown pairs for the third scum before betting the game on Ydra's alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

That would risk you coming out with a townread on Ydrasse, which would pretty much singlehandedly lose scum the game if they didn't have a S/S pairing.

My one issue with this reasoning is I think Titus/STD had a rather decent shot to endgame, especially after the Andante flip STD was somewhat spewed town and Titus was universally townread

so it's not like Taly/Ydra-if-town is always a bigger threat to endgame

[GuiltyLion]

And if it's GL, I'm immediately leaving

I truly don't understand how anyone can think I'm partnered with RH9

[GuiltyLion]

but says that GL's posts seem like he rewrote them several times before posting to avoid causing any offense

RH9 - which posts gave you that impression

I have absolutely not been rewriting any posts this game and I've made several grammatical/memory errors, so this strikes me as an odd remark

[GuiltyLion]

Also, does scum ever write 6705 in general? Maybe I'm falling for "effort=town" but like this is a Lot of Work to do if Alyssa is scum and has a natural path to victory already

maybe I'm just projecting my own laziness but I feel everything Alyssa is doing here is pro-town when she could just be mindlessly yeeting me and shading Ydra

Already at this point in Galron's ISO I've seen a lot of early game posts that feel pretty genuine, though. 375, 514, 651, 666.

I'm kinda surprised you of all people think any of these posts are worthy of a townread? Like aren't you the guy who is usually sees nearly everything as NAI

[GuiltyLion]

Ydrasse, how do you feel about the GL/Dats wagon?

also, has she not made this clear already?

[GuiltyLion]

Should I be worried that GL and Galron have both been gone for about two days?

I spent the weekend recovering mostly and like I said the other day, I'm struggling to care right now because I kinda resigned myself to getting flipped today and I absolutely do not want to fight to survive and only wind up pushing another misyeet

[GuiltyLion]

Should I be worried that GL and Galron have both been gone for about two days?

GL hasn't yet. But it is concerning that both of them seem to be lurking.

We have four days left. Maybe voting GL and putting him at E-1 will bring him back. It has worked in the past.
VOTE: GL

this kinda feels like it could be scum hopping on our wagon finally

it shouldn't be "concerning" to not post over a holiday weekend, it's pretty easy to imagine my WIM decreasing as town after shoving through a T-T miselim and setting myself up to get limmed as a result (it's possible I'd go MIA as scum too to avoid giving any more associative info, so I don't think this should be a point in my favor, but it's NAI), but what's worst of all is that RH9's reasoning for voting me is to "bring me back" instead of actually expressing a desire to flip me.

like, ok, I'm here. Does that make you not want to flip me anymore?

[GuiltyLion]

Those are posts that don't really look like people would townread them, but they serve important purposes in his hunting, which is why I felt that way

I agree with you that they're good hunting posts, but the thing is I don't think they'd be that hard for scum!Galron to write in order to emulate how he thinks town!Galron would post. 514 especially is a super easy post to write as scum to casually distance from your partner.

[GuiltyLion]

I think my current reads are like

Town: {Alyssa, Datisi}
Probtown: {Smart}
could go either way: {Ydrasse, RH9}
scum: {Galron}

in a perfect world I'd lim scum!Galron here but I really do think it'd actually be better for the game if I'm flipped first so people can put all the GL/Datisi paranoia officially to rest

[GuiltyLion]

With the amount of shit I am getting for agreeing with LLD, scum has to be in there protecting GL. This further reinforces that I'm right. It's one thing to disagree. Shading me because I agree with a slot I know to be town is utter garbage.

Galron's recent posting tanks my read of him. He was suggesting that my and GLs flips solved the game, but replied with the fact he didn't like my catchup.

That has zero to do with my flip or GL's flip solving the game.

He doesn't show how the flips are related. His response about why he didn't like my catchup doesn't elaborate on how my and GL's flips solve the game.

If GL is town, turbo flip Galron.

This recent interaction suggested Galron wanted to pair with LLD to take out a strong and charismatic voice while I have the charisma of a gnat when prosecuting.

good post here still

[GuiltyLion]

I kinda want to see if we can disprove a ydra/rh9 team and see if we can determine who is town from those two if we can

I think that might be the best way to just win outright

I was just thinking Ydra/RH9 is the one team that I'm scared of atm because we've set up a path for them to win if we go Galron/S_S after a Datisi/GL T-T flip

I don't know how to do something about that though

[GuiltyLion]

also your summary of RH9's post in the PT kinda gave me some town vibes from him but I do think his vote on me is kinda awkward here. not the fact that he voted me, but the way he justified it. but then the doubting voice in my head says "does scum!RH9, knowing that I am town, not bother to fake a scumread on me at all??"

[GuiltyLion]

Galron, 2092 is not a good post. It's extremely easy to imagine town!Titus agreeing with LLD if she is biased knowing LLD's alignment. I'm pretty sure I even said that at some point

[GuiltyLion]

like from my end it became pretty apparent at some point that Titus was town and we were TvTing but you seem to willingly completely discount that possibility in your entire gamestate view

[GuiltyLion]

Titus I do not think it is inherently scummy that you agree with your predecessor but I would say that if you are town I think you are letting LLD's push on me bias your own read on me and that was reflected in how you treated me on entering the game/catching up

[GuiltyLion]

the other thing I'm remembering that I really hate about Galron is how he tried to tie me to Andante before any flips

I thought at the time that'd be bad if Andante is scum, and then forgot about it

[GuiltyLion]

Someone needs to dance with GL, I've only seen lots of effort from GL, sure town and scum can put in effort, but like, can a gentleman step up and take GL at least to Dance 1?

Why shouldn't he be left out

reminder to self to revisit GL

andante is town and i don't have bad reads so nya

You should dance with GL, I think you 2 would actually get some real solving done, based on how I remember you being in the past and what I've seen thus far of GL. I think yall are perfect!!! I'm shipping you 2

another push to pair GL with someone

i need to reread to figure out why Titus is so invested in GL. Did she just read LLD posts and be like "this was a good case"? cause i didn't think it was....

and yeah more words doesn't equal more effort but GL been pretty responsive/proactive where if u see his scum game its reserved and more calculated. Like i don't see how this is scum

I'll eat my hat if GL is town.

What about the Titus scum GL town world? is hat still getting eaten?

More support of GL

you just looked for the longest post so you could call it that... I almost always say way more words than needed, like, it feels like how GL genuinely plays, meaning you're SRing GL off of playstyle, which isn't alignment indicative

More GL support

Galron r u saying andante is pocketing/white knighting GL here. Cause that’s what it looks like

possible partner

Galron, if you think Andante/GL is S-S, do you think Andante's play is good or logical play if I'm going to flip scum at some point in the game

Not sure. Confused w/ Andante rn.

please remember this entire sequence of posts when you see my townflip

[GuiltyLion]

that was at the time too where there was a lot of discussion around me being the lady left out

so remember at the time I was townreading Andante

it would look really bad for Andante if I got left out and flipped scum given how she was campaigning to keep me in the dance, like extremely obviously bad, and I believe Andante would be more smart about her associative than that if I'm in imminent danger of death

the truth of the matter is I was townreading Andante and she prob wanted to stay on my good side (which worked), but Galron doesn't seem interested in considering that possibility at all. Fire called him on this in 1609

from where I'm sitting, feels like agenda-motivated play to set me up to push knowing Andante will flip red

[GuiltyLion]

I can't help your

paranoia

, GL.

so you know I'm town then?

[GuiltyLion]

pretty sure that's a straight up scumslip lmao

[GuiltyLion]

Your 1705 felt like you wrote in a way to avoid upsetting me. After, Pre-dance, that would be when I felt like it was off the cuff, without all the 'I'm trying not to hurt your feelings' vibes. Speaking of which, I forgot what made me feel the other posts were rewrote.

ah actually that makes a lot of sense with 1705, I was being careful with that one cause I didn't want you to feel too rejected

thanks, that actually makes me feel a lot better about you

[GuiltyLion]

GL, what are your thoughts on leaving?

I'll leave if gridlock is occurring and we get dangerously close to deadline but otherwise I want y'all to either vote me out with intention or decide that you don't actually think I'm scum, I'm not going to freely misyeet myself if scum don't have the courage to push for it

[GuiltyLion]

I can't help your

paranoia

, GL.

so you know I'm town then?

@Smart what do you make of this

and what would you make of it if you knew for a fact that I am town

[GuiltyLion]

you think he's accusing me of faking paranoia?

[GuiltyLion]

Galron is voting me and claims he thinks I am scum

I give reasons for suspecting him

He says he can't help my "paranoia"

Why does someone say their scumread is being paranoid. It's only authentic paranoia if I'm town and don't know his alignment. If he thought I was scum he wouldn't think I am being "paranoid" because he think I'm faking reasons to suspect/vote him

therefore he slipped that he's knows I'm town

does that make sense?

[GuiltyLion]

You voted us in 6549

[GuiltyLion]

If I'm scum because I called someone paranoid, take it.

this is a misrepresentation of what you're being accused of

you called your scumread, the

person you were voting

, paranoid.

I call people paranoid all the time when I think they are town. What I don't do is tell my scumreads they're being paranoid.

[GuiltyLion]

why are you acting like this is about the word itself rather than the fact that your comment didn't align with your projected mindset?

[GuiltyLion]

Why does someone say their scumread is being paranoid. It's only authentic paranoia if I'm town and don't know his alignment. If he thought I was scum he wouldn't think I am being "paranoid" because he think I'm faking reasons to suspect/vote him

I'm not going to put words in his mouth, but I can see town doing this.

I'm having a reaaalllll hard time believing that you don't see any issue with this whatsoever

[GuiltyLion]

Part of me cringes at the pivot off GL/Dat but that's mainly me thinking about the dead thread's final words

lmao the PT with Datisi is Datisi being like "I don't wanna roll over and die let's fight" and me being like "I'm going to feel like such a huge ass if I push another T-T misyeet again"

[GuiltyLion]

My rule of thumb for scumslips is that if you think something is a scumslip, it isn't.

sorry but this is probably one of those things we axiomatically clash over

I have caught plenty of scum off of perspective slips before. oftentimes I doubt myself and don't regard it as a surefire thing but to suggest that scum don't slip ever seems absurd to me

it seems like maybe he doesn't scumread you as much as you thought, and I also don't see why he would be comparatively more motivated to say something like that as scum unless his scumplay is so basic that he goes "someone suspecting me, better discredit them" without even thinking about it. (I can clarify this bit if necessary, it refers to a concept that I use frequently but that doesn't really have a good name.)

if he doesn't scumread me then who does he scumread?

I agree it would be kinda basic/bad scum play but a lot of scum crack when you start pointing fingers at them. especially if he knows I'm going to flip town and my words will carry more weight than they currently do

[GuiltyLion]

why do people keep threatening leave

leaving is so anti-town unless you are convinced your partner is scum

like I thought (and still kinda think?) it'd be best overall for the gamestate if I'm flipped today, but I'm not going to just leave and do scum's work for free

threatening to leave is anti-town, especially if done privately??

[GuiltyLion]

I think if I had to pick a T-T pair to endgame, it'd be Alyssa/RH9

I'm not especially pleased about that choice but RH9 has suddenly felt very town to me in how he's played the past few pages, like there's just little agenda to it and thinking that my 1705 read like a rehearsed post doesn't feel like a thought he would fake as scum

[GuiltyLion]

If multiple dead town, including one who was NK'd and very possibly for her reads, were confident in something like this, you should give them the benefit of the doubt at least for a little while. I swear I'm not just saying this because it benefits me, you know that I respect the reads of anyone who's been confirmed town pretty heavily.

I hope you give me this same respect with regard to Galron if I'm flipped here

[GuiltyLion]

GL your reads change a lot

yeah

that's cause there's no goal to them and none of them feel super good

one thing I have been wanting to learn to fake convincingly as scum is the random 180s and paranoia seeping into my solves but I still always feel so scared making a pivot as scum

[GuiltyLion]

I hope you give me this same respect with regard to Galron if I'm flipped here

I will, yeah. How confident are you in the read?

honestly not very, like 50%, and it's based off of assuming town!Datisi

hm. i was skimming the shakespeare game while it was happening - didn't you have a strong correct scumread of galron there? it's 3am and it's possible i'm misremembering, but.

pedit: @gl

I was suspicious of him on D1 but not super certain of it, I got a guilty on him N1 and started hard pushing him on D2 before I outed my guilty so you might remember some posts from there where I am saying I'm convinced he's scum but not revealing the guilty to try to partner hunt

[GuiltyLion]

But that exact team always kills Titus/STD and the push on that pairing EoFD makes a ton of sense with it too

explain the last bit when you have time? Didn't neither of them vote Titus/STD?

I thought the main drivers of the Titus/STD wagon were like, HQ, Fire, Andante, with Datisi/RH9 hopping on once it had momentum

[GuiltyLion]

Titus and Harley were adamant that my pair was town. FB was not adamant about any read. It's not a cherry-pick.

FB was adamant Datisi and I was T/T

[GuiltyLion]

one other random thought I had before I go to bed

unless Alyssa is like the try hardiest mafia player to ever grace this site, 6705 effectively confirms that Alyssa/RH9 is never scum-scum. so that also eases some paranoia I've had at points this game around scum!Alyssa protecting buddy scum!RH9, because that's just not a realistic scenario by any stretch now.

[GuiltyLion]

in fact, I think enough people have made comments about their PTs that I don't think any pair remaining is S-S

not that that's especially useful, but something that hadn't kinda clicked for me until just now

I'll try to get my head on a bit more straight tomorrow but I kinda think it's just Galron + Ydra or Datisi. Datisi is mostly out of fear that he's being low key survivalist today and doesn't seem all that worried about me whatsoever. I've felt a lot of mindmeld with him but I can't rule out that Datisi thinks similarly enough to me that he

could

pocket me this deeply as scum

[GuiltyLion]

I'm leaving in 8 hours.

Why? Do you think S_S is scum?

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like it's really weird that my pair can't actually seem to get limmed when we've been the defacto lim for like two days now

it makes me anxious

I don't really see what Galron gains from threatening to leave as either alignment and that also makes me anxious

[GuiltyLion]

right, but he'd only be posturing as a last ditch effort if he feels like his team is done here, right? If it's Galron + somebody that isn't S_S, Ydra, Datisi, he can just go out arguing to lim Datisi+me, why suddenly back off and then posture about leaving?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Galron/Something_Smart

god help us all if this is T/T

no matter what happens I have been taken for an absolute ride this game

[GuiltyLion]

Something_Smart's WIM is insane, and he's playing way outside of anything I've been in with him before.

what are your past games with him as scum?

He's gotten me pretty good at least once that I can remember, plus I'm sure once or twice that I don't remember

and I don't think he's been "insane" WIM this game... he's had some townie sounding posts for sure but it's not like he's been super active in deciding the eliminations or pushing out scum, so this feels like an unusually strong read to me

[GuiltyLion]

tbh I'm actually not 100% certain that the scumteam isn't Ydrasse/RH9

that's more a read of "if the scumteam is Ydrasse/RH9, nobody deserves a win, especially town"

Some of us were pushing RH9 predance...

But ftr I think he's town now. The summary of your PT actually helped a lot for me

[GuiltyLion]

I still kinda think Ydra could be scum by POE but she's not the correct shot today or tomorrow, odds are better to find her partner first and also cover in case there is a S/S pairing

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry not predance, first** dance

[GuiltyLion]

Damn I was kinda hoping for double scum lmao

Uhhh ok well good to know Cabd was in fact obvscum after all

And we bought ourselves time to pick the ideal endgame pair

I kinda think it's Ydrasse but don't hold me to that just yet

[GuiltyLion]

Lmao at scum again getting limmed on the basis of their town partner being scummy

[GuiltyLion]

my WIM has returned in force

I want to reread predance now knowing 3/4 scum. I think we can solve based on info there. I should have just stuck with my reads before all the replace ins, I had Cabd dead to rights and I just lost sight of the plot when the triple replace out happened

[GuiltyLion]

like, I don't think much of what anyone says here will be useful, the best info is going to come from the 50+ pages at the start of the game methinks

[GuiltyLion]

Leaves the pool with

RH9/Galron

as gents and

Mala/Angie/GuiltyLion

as ladies.

This is becoming scary because out of the three in your pool, I only TR GL. The others are null.
Actually, I'll just propose to the three that I'm fine with now before it it too late and I'm stuck with Mala and angielily.

I'm pretty sure that the setup didn't say that I can only propose to one person.

PROPOSE:GL

PROPOSE:Alyssa

PROPOSE:S_S

I'm panicking. This is the end of the world.

S_S what do you think about RH9's proposal

I was literally thinking about it as you posted this.

My instinct is to call it town because RH9 seems like the type to plan out exactly who he wants to pair with as scum and I wouldn't expect him to leave it this much out of his hands.

And, though weirdly phrased, I think the emotion is more likely genuine because I do get that feeling of "oh shit, all the good ones are gone" whereas scum would be like "welp just gotta find anybody who's willing".

I doubt catboi ever proposes to me so between RH9 and Galron I think I lean RH9. I remember thinking Galron's carefree manner was mildly +town but it seems like that's mostly dropped off.

SS r u going for a townread to pair with or what is ur idea of good pairing

I was thinking of it, yeah... there really isn't anyone that I care to bomb. I think it's entirely possible that I can turn the suspicion on my slot around, and being with someone I townread would be really good in that case.

Maybe it's better to put RH9 with Alyssa though? How are people reading Alyssa?

hmmm hmmm hmmmmmmm

I feel this is significant but my first impression doesn't point me to a definite answer

if scum!RH9, this is scum!Smart trying to smoothly avoid being forced into a S/S pair. definitely seems possible

if town!RH9, does Smart want to set up scum!Alyssa with RH9? Why would he do that when RH9 feels like he could be limbait at any moment and Alyssa would be best bet for endgame in a {marci, Andante, Smart, Alyssa} team?

I guess scum could be in {Ydra/Datisi} and this is Smart trying to set up a pair where town!Alyssa doesn't endgame

but I do think this is ++town for Alyssa, again

[GuiltyLion]

oh this is gonna take me a while probably

why do you think RH9 is never scum again

I still have half a mind that Alyssa/RH9 could be the best pair

[GuiltyLion]

Marcistar - Not_Mafia [9] -

Save The Dragons

, Alyssa the Lamb, Datisi,

GuiltyLion

, Ydrasse,

Taly

,

Not_Mafia

,

Firebringer

,

Marcistar

do we think this was all town until the self-hammer, Y/N

my instinct says no

[GuiltyLion]

you can take the green color off me if y'all want it just makes the point stronger

I can't remember the last time I saw 8 town votes onto scum in the first wagon in a Large

[GuiltyLion]

yeah but if we can conclude at least RH9 is definitively town that helps a lot

[GuiltyLion]

rereading the first 20 pages so far also makes me feel good about Alyssa town, I remembered the whole RH9 seems okay comment and it makes sense with her whole philosophy around pairing with a nullread and never endgaming

ironically, if we can just all agree RH9 is town, that's the pair I want to endgame

[GuiltyLion]

taly

galron

, gl,

lld

datisi

catboi, prism

,

andante

rh9,

dragons

,

cabd

,

mala

alyssa,

fb

,

marci

I don't think I can point to this readslist and say with confidence that it's scummy in and of itself, but it is a lil eyebrow raisingly convenient that there's one scum in each tier

[GuiltyLion]

Datisi being scum would explain why my pair seemingly couldn't get limmed yesterday when it was a freebie

[GuiltyLion]

but I feel like S_S would be game planning around scum!Datisi going down, not trying to drag Datisi to endgame with him

and if S_S was bussing Datisi he could have done it like 10x more convincingly with voting us out and shit

[GuiltyLion]

Galron -

I think alot of galrons posts dont do much to help me build a read on him, so im curious about when hes gonna have his results from digesting those 12 pages.

RH9 -

At some point i said i enjoy his posts, but now that i'm ISOING him im realizing thats theres nothing really there, I think I was imagining things to be alot better than they were when I was trying to make reads based off my memory : 3 I would like to see him make some stances as well.

Firebringer -

Hes prob a townread, usually reading meme players is a bit hard for me, but I like his posts.. it seems like the perfect mix between memey and serious imo,
i like how he was trying to get into a pair with alyssa the lamb super early on, that just seems to me like a bit too confident for a scum to make.

Ydrasse -

i only really feel like her 418 and afterwards do anything for me, but even then i dont really have any thoughts on it.. most of the posts before that to me seem like she was just posting to have a presence. she would prob be a scumread if i have to put a label on her.

Cabd -

i've never really paid attention to how cabd acts as scum, since the one time he was scum in a game with me i was his partner lol.. but nothing he did really pinged me as scum as of yet..?

Alyssa the Lamb -

I think Alyssa the Lambs beginning posts were joking a bit

too

much about being scum, and I agree with llds 468.

Andante -

22 I think this is a bit scummy, cuz at this stage scum would prob be more focused on getting a pair than anything else.
post 33 this seems like a weird post.
414 this seems a bit overly aware of herself tbh.
but otherwise after she came back after her cry, i liked most of the posts. shes still a scumread, but its getting weaker.

Malakittens -

I don't think I've played with her before, but her lack of posts is sus. she would prob be another scumread if she doesnt post something more substantial soon.

People should add me to their readslist I demand critique if nothing else

if u want my critique: i feel like u should be ripping out the floor more and shoving reads down our throats so that the gamestates in a way u like.
taly lol i want ur opinion on if u think me and lily would be a good pair : 3

marci doesn't touch on Datisi at all here

I think scum are normally too self-conscious to

not

comment on their partner in a readslist

[GuiltyLion]

I forgot about Datisi joining with LLD to tag team on Andante on page 26

++townpoints for Datisi, feels quite genuine and not-buslike

[GuiltyLion]

My day one report of scum team I’ll also assign them roles:

Cabd -the mastermind (why not just for fun I’ll add him just because how he fooled me in that game a year ago I’ll never forgive)
Andante- the heart (fun loving good natured don’t understand how her reads form or go and why she got upset over people she thought was scum were scum reading her)
Marcistar - get away driver (idk I’m just assuming in the duo of lily and her one is scum and lily seemed more “real” tonaly to me
Catboi -the heavy (guy actually has larger scumrange from my memory and could pocket a lot of people and I’m watching him….well a bit. I read most of what he is saying)

I should have formatted that
Also all of those reads are shit that I just gave and this is why these early reads lists are crap.

could this be ydra scum

if Fire had all 4 scum here by post 722 man is a legend

[GuiltyLion]

i feel like i’m about to say something stupid but shouldn’t we just shove towny people together and not overthink

Sure! Who are the players you would like to endgame?

lld,

gl, datisi

, probably you,

probably rh9

i’d feel comfortable with some combination here

hey Ydrasse you can get your wish

[GuiltyLion]

no, I kinda stepped away for a bit. I'll reread a bit more tonight and tomorrow AM and I'll make it clear when I'm done. for now though through 40 pages I kinda think scum!Ydrasse just makes the most sense. For Datisi and Alyssa I have a number of posts/takes that just feel genuine town and uninformed either with regard to myself, other flipped town players, or scum. I haven't yet come across a Ydrasse post that I think she couldn't make as scum

[GuiltyLion]

I haven't found a smoking gun either but Ydrasse is honestly too good at scum to ever leave a smoking gun I think

[GuiltyLion]

No really like

Does Fire/Aly/Datisi/Ydra/Taly/Norwe just installing

I get Andante is with Fire and Titus can go with Aly?

Sounds like a strong group of pairings, not that it is scum free but I generally feel good about them

Norwe

/Datisi being an endgame pair?

lil iffy on

titus/norwee

atm but otherwise i think that’s a good list

i’ll compromise for you my dancing king

p-edit: sell me on norwee while i work

[GuiltyLion]

i need to reread to figure out why Titus is so invested in GL. Did she just read LLD posts and be like "this was a good case"? cause i didn't think it was....

and yeah more words doesn't equal more effort but GL been pretty responsive/proactive where if u see his scum game its reserved and more calculated. Like i don't see how this is scum

I'll eat my hat if GL is town.

will u tape it and post it postgame?

If you provide me a free server to upload to

let's not forget this btw

[GuiltyLion]

alright well I got through 65 pages of read and like I said earlier, it's just reinforced Datisi + Alyssa townreads for me

I don't TR any of RH9's early game but I think his play lategame hasn't been agenda-driven at all and I think he's town by virtue of being

off

the marci wagon

will play more tomorrow but I'd support a Ydra Yeet so far

[GuiltyLion]

Still, why does he go after Ydra so blatantly? Trying to pull another T/T down or - the much less likely successful route - bussing Ydra? I think looking at his momentum in Ydra's read congruent to the suspicion of him lies the motive.

I think while S_S made his position clear that he didn't want Ydra to endgame, he didn't actually do a lot to make that actually happen. He never gave game-related content as to why he believed Ydrasse was scum, he just said she shouldn't endgame by virtue of not being NK'd.

I also remember he discouraged going after your pair when second dance

first

started:

Well, my pet theory is that the IC almost always dies if they're partnered with town.

Taly should give his thoughts on Ydrasse, of course, but I don't feel like that pair should be endgaming.

Taly should give his thoughts on Ydrasse, of course, but I don't feel like that pair should be endgaming.

Agree here. The question is if Taly should leave earlier so we can get the info from a Ydra flip, or later in the offchance this is all WIFOM and Ydra is town and we might hit scum elsewhere first

The question is if Taly should leave earlier so we can get the info from a Ydra flip, or later in the offchance this is all WIFOM and Ydra is town and we might hit scum elsewhere first

I think later because then we also get the benefit of an alive toucan.

Doesn't push it very strongly again:

After Shiro/HQ my tentative flip order would be Taly/Ydrasse -> GL/Dats -> RH9/Alyssa, I guess.

But I'm definitely willing to listen to Taly and Alyssa, my reads this game have not been super strong or super good.

and then when you later proposed that you should endgame, his responses were again, fairly muted:

Taly, I can't speak to anything that happened in the PT, but I still feel like it's pretty unlikely that the scumteam would leave your pair alive if it's T/T. That would risk you coming out with a townread on Ydrasse, which would pretty much singlehandedly lose scum the game if they didn't have a S/S pairing.

Especially since the pair that died was STD/Titus, not a universally townread pair, or even the most townread pair overall. It may be that scum really wanted Titus dead... but Titus scumread Ydrasse, so that points back to her anyway.

I don't understand any of that post honestly. I haven't tried to shut down many things other than this, and I've been pretty insistent that Ydrasse shouldn't endgame, it's not a reactive thing. I have presented my own reads, and preferred leave order, and I've said that I will defer to what Taly wants.

I am in a good position gamestate-wise, at least I hope so, so why wouldn't I want to keep it that way, regardless of my alignment?

He's not making a serious effort here to actually change your townread on Ydrasse, he's not casing her, just making a WIFOMy mech argument for why she shouldn't live. I feel like this serves the purpose of making him look good in the event that she flips scum, but without actually doing a whole lot to change anyone's minds if they are townreading her and don't want her to leave. It's not proactive play to actually get her out

[GuiltyLion]

Note: check early-game SS/Ydra interactions

I mean, I do remember SS being the original person saying never to voice a read on Ydra until intermission.

I haven't yet come across anything that made them look especially unpartnered in the first 65 pages. You're correct he was the first to say we shouldn't give reads on her:

Nobody should be talking about their read on Ydrasse from now till intermission, I think.

Which is slightly annoying because I have one.

I didn't quote this yesterday cause I don't think it's super AI, but I can definitely imagine 1313 being a post scum writes to try to disassociate from their partner, it's a little too "look at me I have a ~read~!" but again, does nothing to actually move the gamestate in any direction towards or away from her. It's an empty post

[GuiltyLion]

GL, should we wait for Ydrasse to post her promised PT summary and stuff or not?

as courtesy we should give her a chance for final reads/opinions in case she's town but she feels kinda resigned to me (as either alignment), and we don't want to stall too long. I'm fine with flipping her at this point

[GuiltyLion]

i don't see how people think that this is... anything like my scum game at all

what would you say is the main distinguishing factor here

[GuiltyLion]

i'm literally doing the biggest thing someone could do if they were scum to handicap themselves and then i just fucking sit around doing nothing all game. like im good at being townread if i try to be because i know what /works/ and then i just said "fuck it no lol" this game danced and twirled some with taly said "yep ready to leave when you are boss" and did nothing but twiddle my thumbs when i could have just paired with someone else and brute forced my way to endgame with them

like yeah sure i let everyone scumread me and just sit there going yep mhm no i wont talk to you actually and just keep going hoping that im dragged along when if im scum i literally know that i am not going to die and have to like.... compensate for that

I dunno, which of the gentlemen do you think scum!you would have the best chance of pocketing all the way through endgame? And when Taly proposed, how would scum!you play that off if you didn't want to pair with him?

I see your point here that you haven't tried to be townread, but I feel if you're scum the plan was never for you to endgame (as soon as you paired with Taly), it was to stay alive as long as possible to keep people paranoid about other slots, pocket Taly, and give away as little info as possible as to who your partners are. Which I could see fitting your ISO/play this game.

and the last point about compensating for not dying doesn't make sense to me because if you were widely townread it would make even less sense for you to not die. the only way you not dying is explicable (if you are scum) is if it's reasonable to think scum might try to WIFOM your slot, which can only work if you've got suspicion on you already

[GuiltyLion]

that's annoying

there was zero chance RH9 was scum because the marci wagon didn't have him on it and I thought I said as much

Taly what are you thinking here

I wasn't convinced by Ydra's posting there

[GuiltyLion]

Just ftr

Every difficult endgame I've ever seen town have has been a result of bad leaves

So don't leave unless you're going to be flipped anyways

Ty

[GuiltyLion]

I will say now

the one thing that's been constantly wigging me out a lil bit about Datisi is that he's gotten progressively less and less paranoid of me

at the time when the game is literally coming down to resolving my alignment and I feel he'd be getting at least a little

more

paranoid

[GuiltyLion]

at the same time, Datisi was towncasing Ydra prior to S_S's flip, both here and in our PT

and I don't see why he'd do that if he's scum and needs Taly/Ydra pair out? Like if he's scum, was he just confident Taly would leave, even when Taly started talking about endgaming?

[GuiltyLion]

Ydrasse who would you say you've really championed/defended as town this game, and when?

[GuiltyLion]

it's fucking suicidal to not do anything and then flip and then stare at everyone like oh fuck i'm alive after taly and i sat in the pt during intermission twirling

this also just isn't true when there's heavy paranoia/suspicion going around between Alyssa/RH9, HQ/Shiro, and (if you are scum) Datisi/GL T-T pairings

as evidenced by the fact that you are not dead yet

[GuiltyLion]

but I feel like S_S would be game planning around scum!Datisi going down, not trying to drag Datisi to endgame with him

and if S_S was bussing Datisi he could have done it like 10x more convincingly with voting us out and shit

I still think this holds true

I don't see how S_S play at 8p prior to getting limmed really makes sense if he's scum with Datisi

and the same reasoning should apply to my slot as well

like if the goal was to bus us and endgame he would have gone about it in the worst way possible

and if our pair had scum he

should

have been the one trying to endgame because we were very close to going down constantly

whereas I think it's a pretty straightforward explanation for his play if we're both T/T and he doesn't want to get his hands dirty at all

[GuiltyLion]

After Shiro/HQ my tentative flip order would be Taly/Ydrasse -> GL/Dats -> RH9/Alyssa, I guess.

But I'm definitely willing to listen to Taly and Alyssa

, my reads this game have not been super strong or super good.

why would Smart say this and then not vote us when I've pretty much rolled over, Taly and Alyssa are voting us, we're in E-1 range

if Datisi is his partner avoiding the wagon is gonna look suspicious if we flip T-S

I don't think Smart needs to keep partner!Datisi alive, I just don't

and I don't think Datisi especially tried to antispew Smart either. a lot of their early game interactions don't vibe to me like theater

[GuiltyLion]

you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how my brain works

no, I know. that was 75% memeing and 25% wishful thinking that it actually could be that simple.

oh yeah, i just saw town!s_s give his all in a lylo in a game i was modding and i want to like, see some of that fire before i actually townread him

telling you right now this isn't going to happen. I said that game was the hardest I've tried in like a year, and it was a combination of (a) I knew half the solve and was pretty damn confident in the other half, (b) I had legitimate mechanical arguments I could push, and (c) the person in charge of deciding was someone who knew me very well and whose scumhunting skills I respected a lot. If you try to scumread me for not playing like I did that game you are setting yourself up for disappointment

s_s, if i asked you to dance, what would you say

Probably something along the lines of "we'll see". I forget did you say you wanted an active PT? Because I will mostly be composing poetry in mine. (The most fun dance game I ever played included a section where everyone was writing poems and I want to get back into that. WAIT SHIT I HAD AN IDEA my new year's resolution should be to write at least one poem in every game I play.)

also who's your preferred dance partner as of right this moment

look ok there's a reason I wanted to be a lady and it was so I wouldn't have to make any decisions.

Serious answer is the same one I gave Taly-- it depends on how I'm being read. The ideal way to form pairs in this setup is to pair up people who are being read approximately the same. Obviously it's more nuanced than that (really you want the consensus read on X to match X's read on Y, where X is the one among the two that is easier to read), but my decisions are obviously going to be different if everyone's clamoring for my head compared to if everyone is fine with me.

Sorry for the chaotic energy of this post I also slept horribly last night.

this post in particular

it's one of the longest, most detailed posts in Smart's early game

and all of it is speaking to Datisi

I feel that is far more likely scum trying to worm their way into a townie's good graces than two scumbuds just meaninglessly fake riffin on shit in the main thread

if I'm going Deep in my analysis of it, the apology at the end too, like if he knows he and Datisi are teammates and Datisi isn't gonna like pointlessly bury him without any real plan or gain, why does he feel self-conscious about this post enough to apologize? I think he's slightly worried Datisi is gonna want to keep probing his thought processes and to get ahead of that he preemptively excuses his post to Datisi for possibly being confusing

[GuiltyLion]

I guess towncasing Datisi isn't all that useful

because if I'm scum, that's both easy for me to do, knowing Datisi is town in that world, and also exactly what I

should

do as scum, in order to justify not leaving

probably it is more useful to try to continue to poke holes in a town!Ydra case

but, these are some reasons for why I don't think it's Datisi

[GuiltyLion]

hi

i’m zzz at this because i turned my brain off after the flip yesterday

i’m fine with leaving at some point because taly and i can’t go anywhere near endgame but i want time to think about things

when and why did your attitude change from here to not wanting to leave/die in 6p?

[GuiltyLion]

one last thought before I go to bed, Taly this is just for you my colorful beaked friend

early on in Datisi and I's PT there was this conversation we had that exposed something we didn't like in S_S's ISO.

for context, Smart posted this:

I guess I don't actually have to read Galron now, I just have to read Mala now. If I think she's got a decent chance to be town then it would be better to let her pair with Galron on the offchance that he becomes obvtown or spewed town or something.

to paraphrase our PT, basically I said I couldn't understand Smart's 2324 because if Smart were town and knew his own alignment, it would make more sense for him to want to pair with Galron rather than leave it up to an unknown Mala slot that he (or anyone) might get wrong

Datisi replied saying he could follow 2324 if S_S's assumption was that Mala would have a better chance of correctly becoming townread by the game at large than he would. But then Datisi pointed out that in an earlier post (1934), Smart said he wanted to turn his slot around, so there was an inconsistency there that makes 2324 look vaguely like posturing

I agreed and we decided we should ask about it in the main thread, which lead to my 2701.

The whole conversation felt organic to me, like I don't smell any sense of agenda or calculation in how Datisi went about highlighting this point and using my previous thought process as a springboard for it. I remember being happy it felt like the first true instance of us teaming together and doing some ~ solving ~ as a pair

I'm assuming you/Ydra had similar conversations in your PT, but can you highlight some where Ydra helped correctly guide you towards suspicion of scum? especially early on, before bussing would really make a lot of sense or provide an advantage

[GuiltyLion]

Where was this "Rh9 is obvtown" energy the entire time I debated a PoE of Ydra/Rh9 the past 2 days?

Marcistar - Not_Mafia [9] -

Save The Dragons

, Alyssa the Lamb, Datisi,

GuiltyLion

, Ydrasse,

Taly

,

Not_Mafia

,

Firebringer

,

Marcistar

do we think this was all town until the self-hammer, Y/N

my instinct says no

yeah but if we can conclude at least RH9 is definitively town that helps a lot

alright well I got through 65 pages of read and like I said earlier, it's just reinforced Datisi + Alyssa townreads for me

I don't TR any of RH9's early game but I think his play lategame hasn't been agenda-driven at all and I think he's town by virtue of being

off

the marci wagon

will play more tomorrow but I'd support a Ydra Yeet so far

My solve was Ydra and I thought you were going to leave, if Ydra was wrong I'd reevaluate on RH9 then. But I made myself clear.

[GuiltyLion]

And I'll be honest and say that the person with the clearest incentive to eliminate Titus is you.

Bro this is exactly why I wanted to die two days ago

Please remember if Ydra is scum she literally cannot kill herself and has to kill from whatever pair is most likely to be perceived as T/T

Which was clearly Titus/STD, especially after Andante flip

[GuiltyLion]

like what’s the point of asking for something you’ve already been told isn’t there

To get people thinking about how your play has benefited the scumteam, when you said it didn't.

[GuiltyLion]

like it's something i can't wrap my head around people looking at that and still thinking i have done everything i have this game for the intents of helping scum win

"OH but I townread scum all game so I can't show you any instances where I was pushing the gamestate in a negative direction"

[GuiltyLion]

negative direction for scum*, that is

[GuiltyLion]

but i just wanted people see i’m town before i died

Wouldn't they just see you're town by your flip

[GuiltyLion]

...and only after typing this whole thing, i had enough brain to check when did pooky alert us that a pair had left the dance, and it actually does leave enough time for gl to see the pm and get here without it looking like scum who saw a t/t pair getting paranoid and not wanting to interrupt

Also yeah, it was unfortunate, I was online but just playing OOTP and not looking at the thread and then I got the email notification on my phone

[GuiltyLion]

I think if I had to pick a T-T pair to endgame, it'd be Alyssa/RH9

I'm not especially pleased about that choice but RH9 has suddenly felt very town to me in how he's played the past few pages, like there's just little agenda to it and thinking that my 1705 read like a rehearsed post doesn't feel like a thought he would fake as scum

Taly I had also landed on this a while back too

[GuiltyLion]

Ok Ydra we can try a different approach

If you're town then the scum is in my pair - why did Smart not bus at all when Taly/Alyssa both wanted my pair flipped at 8p? How does his play make sense in the world where Datisi/GL contains his partner

[GuiltyLion]

Did Ydrasse/Andante talk to each other a single time...?

[GuiltyLion]

GL you are giving my paranoia a megaphone lmao

Paranoia about you, not Ydra.

You're posting at such a volume and in a manner that vindicates yourself while suggesting Ydra is scum.

Usually elo in large themes with an active plist the wolf that is missed is the one in the stronger position than a slot suspected throughout the game.

And I'm not just pulling up Slaughter Hour and Anything Upick as suggestions.

Tell me why . And it's not effective to just say that you wanted to leave at 6p/8p because you didn't snd that alone is not a differential factor between you and Ydra.

What is different is that Ydra has expressed exhaustion with this game for almost half of it and it has strengthened progressively. Whereas you knew that I and the dead thread wanted your flip and yet you pursued SS/Galron - I believe after Datisi hopped onto it.

You know, it's kind of odd how SS pivots onto Ydra/Me after telling me I shouldn't be voting him because I'd be ignoring the dead thread... which would mean eliminating you/Dat, and he even says this.

So why does he contradict a vote on you around the time that Ydra begins fending for herself in the thread? Was there no thought that I as an IC makes 6p or 4p much easier on the town?

first off to clarify, I never wanted to leave, I said as much, that would be doing scum's work for them. What I wanted was for you all to vote me out, for scum (and town) to put their money where their mouth is if they were going to actually push for me to be eliminated. And I promised that I wouldn't throw a fit about it once HQ/Shiro flipped town, and I didn't. I was totally willing to get limmed there to resolve my slot.

That's different than just claiming I want to/am going to leave. It relates to your point because Ydra has never had to deal with an actual wagon on her at any point this game since it's always been assumed you will just leave once we collectively (or you unilaterally) decide it is right to do so.

Why

is Ydra exhausted with this game? In my mind flipping scum!Smart was huge, that resolved my anxieties about who was the deep wolf and put town in a much better chance to win the game. Ydra's just AtEing when it makes no sense from her as town, if she were town and gave a fuck about winning this game she'd be casing which of Datisi/GL is scum and trying her damndest to make us crack/mess up in the main thread by pressuring us. All she's done instead is try to make us feel bad for wanting her gone and say she's exhausted. Why? Who has even done a lot to make her feel bad this game when she's gotten to coast for the first half of it and had most of the game basically treat her as self-resolving town? If she gets 'exhausted' by just trying to Solve Correctly then why does she even play mafia?

I don't quite follow your last question here, can you rephrase it? I've already speculated several times on Smart's play in 8p. I think the plan was for Smart to endgame and look good off of Ydra scumflip, to not look

bad

off of Datisi/GL T-T flip, and Ydra was playing to live as long as she can while setting up Smart to endgame and not be the carry herself. I don't think the scumteam anticipated us pivoting onto Smart/Galron pair and I think that's why

both

Smart and Ydra had their mini freakouts exactly when they did. And if scum was in our pair and not Ydra, then frankly Smart played 8p completely abysmally when he could have taken all the towncred in the world by convincingly bussing us, we were extremely likely to go down anyways, and he just... chose not to. For what? So Datisi/myself could be the endgaming scum instead of him? In what world is that a good or logical plan? Smart is a more calculated scum player than that and if I were scum with him personally I would have been telling him to bus the shit out of me basically the entirety of second dance.

[GuiltyLion]

Tell me why .

You aren't scum trying to convince me to leave here because I don't see evidence to the contrary.

This is a bad reason to suspect me because as town

or

scum I want you to leave to win this game. Me trying hard in LIMLO and trying to get you to yeet the slot I think is scum isn't itself evidence for my alignment one way or the other, what you need to be doing is looking at the points I'm making and see if they make sense to you or not. Or convince me that I'm wrong on Datisi being town. I put forward a town case for Datisi and why I think it's Ydrasse, I would do that as either alignment, the simple fact of me doing it doesn't make me scum

[GuiltyLion]

I also think Ydrasse not being NK'd is always going to be good evidence for her being scum because otherwise scum chose to forfeit their singular chance to take out the conftown player and leave it out of their control that you'll remove yourself from the game at some point, and to what end?

To outweigh/ignore that piece of evidence and bet the game on Ydrasse town requires, in my mind,

quite

good evidence that Ydrasse is town and I don't see that in her ISO in this game. She hasn't really championed any lims on scum, she hasn't been transparently obvtown in sharing her thoughts or her reads, she's tried to make us feel bad for flipping her, etc etc. I don't see any posts of hers that I say "Scum!Ydrasse almost never writes that post", whereas I have a handful of those for Datisi, in how he interacted with me, flipped town, flipped scum.

Look at Ydrasse's interactions with scum and convince me they look unaligned? She has a pretty textbook distancing type of conversation with marci in 614 (and everything quote chained inside of it), she virtually never speaks with Andante at all... like the entire game... she pokes fun at Smart but doesn't do a lot of work to sort/solve him either. Whereas Datisi has page after page of these long involved conversations with each of the scum, trying to understand their posts and though processes, Datisi was repeatedly trying to get me to consider scum!Andante in our PT, etc, etc.

[GuiltyLion]

i'm literally doing the biggest thing someone could do if they were scum to handicap themselves and then i just fucking sit around doing nothing all game. like im good at being townread if i try to be because i know what /works/ and then i just said "fuck it no lol" this game danced and twirled some with taly said "yep ready to leave when you are boss" and did nothing but twiddle my thumbs when i could have just paired with someone else and brute forced my way to endgame with them

like yeah sure i let everyone scumread me and just sit there going yep mhm no i wont talk to you actually and just keep going hoping that im dragged along when if im scum i literally know that i am not going to die and have to like.... compensate for that

I dunno, which of the gentlemen do you think scum!you would have the best chance of pocketing all the way through endgame? And when Taly proposed, how would scum!you play that off if you didn't want to pair with him?

I see your point here that you haven't tried to be townread, but I feel if you're scum the plan was never for you to endgame (as soon as you paired with Taly), it was to stay alive as long as possible to keep people paranoid about other slots, pocket Taly, and give away as little info as possible as to who your partners are. Which I could see fitting your ISO/play this game.

and the last point about compensating for not dying doesn't make sense to me because if you were widely townread it would make even less sense for you to not die. the only way you not dying is explicable (if you are scum) is if it's reasonable to think scum might try to WIFOM your slot, which can only work if you've got suspicion on you already

I want to highlight this post/point again.

If I were town with the IC, IMO the best way to play that spot is to power obvtown and try to lead on scum, eat the bullet, and hope whoever is the most obvious T/T pair remaining can carry to endgame.

I can

understand

an idea of playing cagey during first dance, keeping reads in a PT, and forcing scum to be put into a harder NK decision not knowing how much they can count on IC leaving. I don't think I subscribe to that being the

best

use of the spot, but I can maybe buy the idea.

What I

can't

understand is coming out of intermission, still alive, and then NOT being like "alright scum y'all fucked up it's time for me to powertown because if I'm townread by everyone then we auto". Maybe it wouldn't work, but I'd at least

try

, otherwise I'm just setting myself up to get pushed by scum at some point.

Ydra's lack of effort during second dance hasn't helped town at all and it's entirely consistent with how scum would play if they want to keep the WIFOM alive and make things harder for town. And also if it's just hard for them to convincingly keep up appearances. Playing scum is difficult and draining. Ydra has half the posts of all the rest of us alive.

Ydra claims why wouldn't she become townread as scum, her play doesn't help the scumteam, but she's leaving out the fact that she didn't become townread as town either, and her play didn't really help the town team. It's a null point in her defense at best.

[GuiltyLion]

basically I think S_S planned to be the endgame scum, not Ydrasse

I know this probably doesn't mean a whole lot at the moment but I am town and so if Datisi is game winning scum and we lose, the large brunt of the responsibility will be on me for getting massively massively pocketed and I wouldn't say it's your fault for leaving but rather mine for not leaving

[GuiltyLion]

to flesh out that first point, given a S_S/Ydrasse team, I really don't think that team tries to have Ydra survive make it to endgame, I think they assume she's going down before F4 and so everything Smart would be doing would be to make sure he's not too apparently linked on a Ydrasse red flip

[GuiltyLion]

galron who townread s_s

he didn't though, he started threatening to leave right around the time Taly voted his pair

[GuiltyLion]

I was at E-1 for like 2 hours and you didn't post in the thread at that time

[GuiltyLion]

It's just that Ydrasse literally sat throughout all of intermission with me and we did jack shit and I don't know if scum does that thinking they're going to live.

Like, Ydrasse is literally as scum here because she's still varied about wanting to die even after SS/Galron flip.

She didn't want to die when I was casing her at 6p

like yes i shouldnt be throwing a fit over being elimmed when its like yes, elim me so i dont have to beat my head against a wall but

here i am lol

i'm a broken record but it is genuinely the most frustrating thing to deal with lol

i'm the whiny bitch when it comes to dying, it's me

like if she were town and genuinely ok with dying I feel her mindset should have been pointing out why my arguing is scum-motivated rather than arguing why she's town

[GuiltyLion]

all of Ydrasse's arguments are "if I were scum I could have done [x] thing differently instead"

which is what I tend to do when I'm scum

she's not explaining why she's done everything she's done as town, or why Datisi/me is scum here

[GuiltyLion]

me being scum would have required like a Don Corleone absolute work of art performance to somehow endgame after all this time

again, I always always always tell Smart to bus me if I'm scum with him, there's no universe where I'm like "hey why don't you just... not vote my wagon this entire day phase and play really tentatively about it, then I'll bus you (by way of making up stuff about Galron) and endgame it myself"

if Taly left yesterday instead of Alyssa how do I endgame against Alyssa/RH9 when I spent the past 8p and 6p phases arguing that I had them as T/T

[GuiltyLion]

like, this is just not the progression I go to if I'm scum trying to endgame against RH9/Alyssa and I need to convince one of the two to leave eachother

I'm not planting any seeds of doubt about their alignment, I'm pulling out things I think are town indicative, there's zero evidence here of any intent to win a 4p against them

I think if I had to pick a T-T pair to endgame, it'd be Alyssa/RH9

I'm not especially pleased about that choice but RH9 has suddenly felt very town to me in how he's played the past few pages, like there's just little agenda to it and thinking that my 1705 read like a rehearsed post doesn't feel like a thought he would fake as scum

one other random thought I had before I go to bed

unless Alyssa is like the try hardiest mafia player to ever grace this site, 6705 effectively confirms that Alyssa/RH9 is never scum-scum. so that also eases some paranoia I've had at points this game around scum!Alyssa protecting buddy scum!RH9, because that's just not a realistic scenario by any stretch now.

tbh I'm actually not 100% certain that the scumteam isn't Ydrasse/RH9

that's more a read of "if the scumteam is Ydrasse/RH9, nobody deserves a win, especially town"

Some of us were pushing RH9 predance...

But ftr I think he's town now. The summary of your PT actually helped a lot for me

Leaves the pool with

RH9/Galron

as gents and

Mala/Angie/GuiltyLion

as ladies.

This is becoming scary because out of the three in your pool, I only TR GL. The others are null.
Actually, I'll just propose to the three that I'm fine with now before it it too late and I'm stuck with Mala and angielily.

I'm pretty sure that the setup didn't say that I can only propose to one person.

PROPOSE:GL

PROPOSE:Alyssa

PROPOSE:S_S

I'm panicking. This is the end of the world.

S_S what do you think about RH9's proposal

I was literally thinking about it as you posted this.

My instinct is to call it town because RH9 seems like the type to plan out exactly who he wants to pair with as scum and I wouldn't expect him to leave it this much out of his hands.

And, though weirdly phrased, I think the emotion is more likely genuine because I do get that feeling of "oh shit, all the good ones are gone" whereas scum would be like "welp just gotta find anybody who's willing".

I doubt catboi ever proposes to me so between RH9 and Galron I think I lean RH9. I remember thinking Galron's carefree manner was mildly +town but it seems like that's mostly dropped off.

SS r u going for a townread to pair with or what is ur idea of good pairing

I was thinking of it, yeah... there really isn't anyone that I care to bomb. I think it's entirely possible that I can turn the suspicion on my slot around, and being with someone I townread would be really good in that case.

Maybe it's better to put RH9 with Alyssa though? How are people reading Alyssa?

hmmm hmmm hmmmmmmm

I feel this is significant but my first impression doesn't point me to a definite answer

if scum!RH9, this is scum!Smart trying to smoothly avoid being forced into a S/S pair. definitely seems possible

if town!RH9, does Smart want to set up scum!Alyssa with RH9? Why would he do that when RH9 feels like he could be limbait at any moment and Alyssa would be best bet for endgame in a {marci, Andante, Smart, Alyssa} team?

I guess scum could be in {Ydra/Datisi} and this is Smart trying to set up a pair where town!Alyssa doesn't endgame

but I do think this is ++town for Alyssa, again

oh this is gonna take me a while probably

why do you think RH9 is never scum again

I still have half a mind that Alyssa/RH9 could be the best pair

Marcistar - Not_Mafia [9] -

Save The Dragons

, Alyssa the Lamb, Datisi,

GuiltyLion

, Ydrasse,

Taly

,

Not_Mafia

,

Firebringer

,

Marcistar

do we think this was all town until the self-hammer, Y/N

my instinct says no

you can take the green color off me if y'all want it just makes the point stronger

I can't remember the last time I saw 8 town votes onto scum in the first wagon in a Large

yeah but if we can conclude at least RH9 is definitively town that helps a lot

rereading the first 20 pages so far also makes me feel good about Alyssa town, I remembered the whole RH9 seems okay comment and it makes sense with her whole philosophy around pairing with a nullread and never endgaming

ironically, if we can just all agree RH9 is town, that's the pair I want to endgame

alright well I got through 65 pages of read and like I said earlier, it's just reinforced Datisi + Alyssa townreads for me

I don't TR any of RH9's early game but I think his play lategame hasn't been agenda-driven at all and I think he's town by virtue of being

off

the marci wagon

will play more tomorrow but I'd support a Ydra Yeet so far

[GuiltyLion]

to be frank I don't think there's like a rock solid scum case on Ydrasse, it's just that the towncase on everyone else was much stronger FMPOV

again though, I'd challenge you, point to a

single

post that Ydrasse made that she can't or won't make as scum.

Look at her interactions with scum, especially in the entire predance/first dance phase. Her conversation with marci feels stiff and forced. She and Andante don't talk to each other at all.

and here in the waning hours of the game, all she's done is stalled for time and thrown a bunch of AtE at us every time we talk about flipping her. Her mindset is not a solvey one, it's a survival one. She can say she didn't tryhard as scum all she wants, that's not a town case and never will be

[GuiltyLion]

and again, to me the biggest question which cleared Datisi the most (although I think Datisi's interactions with flipped scum look really not-aligned)

If Smart was scum with our pair, what the fuck was the scum plan at 8p??

Datisi/I have been a functionally dead pair walking for like 3-4 straight lims. I don't even honestly know how we made it this far, I wasn't trying to. If Smart was scum with either of us the path to winning would be, bus us, look nice and good and unaligned, have taly leave because Ydrasse can't endgame because didn't die, and then convince Alyssa to leave.

Instead, Smart didn't seem invested in pushing us at all. Didn't case us. Didn't ask people to vote us. Let our wagon languish for days on end. Why? What does he gain leaving his partner out to dry like that? Does he really think he can drag us across the finish line with him when Taly, Alyssa, his partner Galron are all voting us? What was his plan there?

Smart isn't a bad scum player, and if he's scum with me or Datisi he chose the poorest possible way to play the 8p. Didn't get any towncred by bussing us, instead letting himself (the deeper wolf) get limmed instead, like how is that reasonable play from his slot?

[GuiltyLion]

All this "AtE" I don't think comes from scum her.

She's resigning herself to my decision in our PT and she's only giving information to me at the moment and this doesn't survive if its scum so why is it being done?

Why not? Ydrasse is a champ at AtE like she is a serious pro at getting people to feel bad for her when she's suspected and getting people to do what she wants

her whole wincon at this point is to make you doubt long enough to stall the game out to a win, and AtEing you in a private thread is way easier path to that then solving the game between Datisi/me in the main thread

[GuiltyLion]

And I don't consider SS to be a bus happy player so it doesn't seem out there to consider he wanted a 4p win. I'd have gone for that.

What is your opinion on S_S likelihood to bus based on?

And would it change your mind at all if I show you how I am like, the bus champion? Scum win games when they convince everyone they aren't paired together. It's like the key piece of information you need to hide from town

[GuiltyLion]

like, THIS is the kind of post I like to make about my buddies. goats and I were fighting pretty much all game and we won the game off of it because people just locktowned me after the slot flipped red.

If I was scum with Smart I'd be raging at him in the scumchat for how bad he'd look if we got limmed without him with him hemming and hawing and just ~not doing anything~ all the way

[GuiltyLion]

also if we were going for a 4p win I would have been pushing for Ydra or Alyssa/RH9 pair to get out

I genuinely didn't think it'd be good for the game if anyone else was misyeeted at 8p and I literally did not vote until it was clear we weren't going to be the lim anymore

[GuiltyLion]

It's just that both of you have had such similar takes all game and Titus was the only person to really lean into this idea on how to approach your pair and she was NKed.

Titus was obvtown and again, scum!Ydra literally will not kill herself

you cannot use this NK to townread Ydra it is one of the biggest pieces of evidence against her

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, so how about you tell my how you aren't distancing from your scumpartner SS this game?

what do you think I did that would set myself up to endgame on a Smart scumflip?

I can't really answer this question all that well cause like, my early game with Smart, me trying to ice him out of the dance, probably is closer to how I'd treat him as a buddy. But then after the first dance started, why would I just pivot into loltownreading him for no reason if my goal was to bus?

I didn't re-evaluate on him at all until Shiro/HQ flipped T-T and it was clear something was deeply wrong with the game. But even when I suspected him or started pushing their pair, I didn't do it to make myself look good, I didn't do it to survive.

I'd say my associatives with marci/Andante are actually the ones I'd point to that show I wasn't playing to my usual scum strategy. If I knew Andante was scum and going down by virtue of being partners with Fire, I'd never have the progression ("town", "ok well I guess she could be scum but I don't want to flip her because it won't help me solve the game") on her that I did

this argument is kinda inherently WIFOMy so I'm not sure it's that useful, but it's my best effort

[GuiltyLion]

taly, if i need to get up three hours earlier tomorrow so that i have time to paraphrase 16 pages of our pt, i will do it if it's needed

I can also do this tonight but I might eat an edible later so it might be a little not-sharp

[GuiltyLion]

hi

i’m zzz at this because i turned my brain off after the flip yesterday

i’m fine with leaving at some point because taly and i can’t go anywhere near endgame but i want time to think about things

when and why did your attitude change from here to not wanting to leave/die in 6p?

also Taly please think about this

immediately after intermission, Ydrasse is all "we can't endgame, I'm fine with dying, just give me time to think"

but then in 6p when Alyssa and I are like "let's yeet Ydra", she gets all offended about how could we possibly think she's scum, she just wants us to see that she's town

how is that a consistent mindset? she

knows

not being NK'd means her slot is inherently Very Suspicious

and she's tried to claim that as scum she wouldn't pair with the IC but you kinda forced her hand proposing it while Norwee was stalling and I think it's a disingenuous thought because avoiding an IC proposal, especially after a lot of people voiced support for it, would just look a million times worse

[GuiltyLion]

we have "similar" takes because we talk in the pt a lot and because we're generally similar players. looking over some of our t/t games would confirm that.

I think on this too

if we each know our slot is town and townreach each other, we're naturally gonna have very similar perspectives on how scum is playing around us

like for example I think we both can feel that Smart's play at 8p just fundamentally doesn't vibe with a world where the other scum is in our pair

I get that it might feel a little different when our pair is 2 unknowns instead of 1, and when your pair contains a conftown it's always going to be treated differently by everyone in the game, town or scum

but a lot of the mindmelds I've felt with Datisi have been grounded in him thinking the same things about what scum would be doing if we're T/T vs if we're T/S, especially being under so much scrutiny this game

[GuiltyLion]

and she's tried to claim that as scum she wouldn't pair with the IC but you kinda forced her hand proposing it while Norwee was stalling and I think it's a disingenuous thought because avoiding an IC proposal, especially after a lot of people voiced support for it, would just look a million times worse

Dude you made the same argument against Norwe for wanting to read the thread before accepting my proposal.

Pick a lane on what is scum and what is town behavior.

what?

avoiding an IC proposal is scummy

Norway avoided it
Ydrasse didn't avoid it and then tried to say as scum she would avoid it

there's no lane changing here

[GuiltyLion]

I really think you should just

set aside everything

look at how Ydrasse interacted with each of the flipped scum, in the main thread only

and then compare to how Datisi and I did

[GuiltyLion]

DATISI THE MUTUAL TOWNWIN WE DID IT AAAAAAHHHHHHH

gg all, very well played by the scumteam it was super close

I gotta run for now but will certainly be back later for postgame bantz

[GuiltyLion]

ok I'm back for slightly more postgame thoughts

first off Pooky thanks for modding and hosting I had so much fun and it was a really well run game, everything on schedule, prompt replacements, you did a great job I really appreciate it thank you

man this was a wild game

I think all the scum played really well and in a weird way some of the pivotal lims like marci to start it off and S_S at 8p were in part due to people wrongly tunneling their town partners which like, I don't even know how you play around that as scum lol, which makes it hard to feel like town outplayed scum at the end of the day but lots of fortunate moments lead to this. but yeah each scum had me townreading them at times and maaaan it was hard to ever feel good about anything this game, just a lot of strong performances undone by some bad luck at key moments. one of those weird games where everyone had a mix of correct townreads and scumreads and incorrect ones elsewhere and we never blocked totally cohesively but yet managed to create a difficult gamestate for scum to control

Fire you were a champ man you had the best reads of all of us, you were also my true breath of sanity in this game. Datisi was like along with me for the ride with me in the madness but you were always like the calm sage giving off the needed chill vibes like "no worries we got this", I think the main reason I didn't want Andante limmed was cause I didn't want you out of the game

Alyssa I feel I learned a lot from your perspectives this game you have a very unique and cool way of playing the game

RH9 you were so fun and I feel bad I spent so much of the game scumreading you, in a weird way your presence in the game kinda kept me grounded in a way cause it was always entertaining to see what you were up to - and you were on the ball lategame pressuring Smart, defending me, like I think you played a low key really important role in 8p shaking out the way it did

Taly, great job playing through starting in the least desirable position and you came through in the clutch, well done man. I feel I didn't engage with you as much as I should have since I knew your alignment the whole time, but you contributed such a fun vibe to the thread especially when things felt rough or difficult

HQ/Shiro I'm so sorry for yeeting your pair, I had moments of townreading each of you individually but I just couldn't get over why you were such a united front, end of the day that misread is on me and I know it probably felt super unfair at the time since Datisi/I basically had the same kinda united front goin on on our end.

Titus was super obvtown and really held a lot of the town together in the first dance - I do wanna see you eat that hat though ;P

LLD/catboi/Prism/Cabd/Mala - wish y'all could have stayed in the game longer, I remember at one point in like page 200 or whatever I was rereading catboi's ISO and feeling like it was a totally different game when you all were still in it lol. I'm not sure what the OOG spoiler was that lead to the initial replace outs but I guess Cabd had to replace out even though he was informed because him

not

replacing out would have given away that he was informed? thanks for protecting the integrity of the game man that's so important even though it sucks to leave games we wanted to play. catboi in particular I would love to play with ya again sometime soon, I've read some of your other games but never played with you but I feel like I always enjoy reading your perspective in games and this was no exception

Galron I felt so proud of myself for reading you correctly as scum and as town in our last two games together and then I just totally whiffed on you on this one, I hope future games I'll get it right I feel bad how often I called you obvscum in my PT lmao

STD always a delight to play with!! a lot of your posts made me laugh this game, 4151 probably my favorite, and you and Titus both were a really effective pair here I think this game would have been like a million times easier if you two hadn't been the ones NK'd

N_M with the perfect voting record this game, town MVP probably tbh

Datisi you know how I feel

[GuiltyLion]

S_S in particular I wanna give a shoutout on the scumteam, totally turned his slot around from a difficult spot to replace into, he totally snowed me and it's not the first time he's done that but maaaan I even had my guard up this time and he still did it, well played and gosh it must have been rough to go down like that at the final hour, I think if Datisi/I were limmed instead you very likely could have won

[GuiltyLion]

yeah I really feel like you (Alyssa), RH9, Taly, Datisi deserve the lion's (heh!) share of the credit for that swing of the game at 8p, I didn't do anything but just kinda wrongly tunnel Galron which somehow worked out in our favor lol

[GuiltyLion]

Wtf catboi is bloodhail?!?

[GuiltyLion]

sometimes I feel like I'm always playing with the same ~15-20 people just on a bunch of different accounts -.-

[GuiltyLion]

sometimes I feel like I'm always playing with the same ~15-20 people just on a bunch of different accounts -.-

I can't help your paranoia, Guilty Lion.

lmfao

poor Smart when 'paranoia'-gate happened, knowing you're town but having to not slip that he knows you are town, needing to defend you but looking survivalist in the process... I can't imagine how difficult that moment was hahaha

[GuiltyLion]

yeah lol I chronically refer to game events with the "-gate" suffix, probably to an annoying degreee