Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[fireisredsir]

ok I just had a thought, maybe it's dumb but hear me out

am i 100% convinced enchant is maf? no, not at all

when i try to imagine what scum teams there could be, is enchant on the vast majority of them? yes

does enchant 100% need to be resolved before elo? yes

and the thing I realized is... even on the off chance that enchant is town here, im pretty sure scum would actually want them not to be limmed? like, think about it. if we flip someone else today, im guessing a lot of the town will be heading into the night with invictus on enchant. i know i probably will. people are tired of hero shots, and just want to narrow the poe. it makes sense. but thats actually shielding for scum. if they know that enchant is town, then they want everyone's invictus on them because invictus shots are much harder to predict compared to their ability to influence the lim during the day. limming enchant removes that shield and makes it harder for them to feel safe with their night kill

and the pretty likely alternative is that enchant is just scum. so it's a win win

VOTE: Enchant

[fireisredsir]

Very likely town besties
Fire, Kovu

awww FIRE!!! WE'RE TOWN BESTIES!!!

HECK YEAH WE ARE!!!

[fireisredsir]

If no one takes charge we're going to end up havuing a path of least resistance vote on enchant, because no one actually wants to defend him.

do you disagree with the idea that if enchant is town then maf probably want them alive as an invictus shield? im actually curious, im not sure that my line of thinking is correct there, but it makes sense to me

[fireisredsir]

i mean you're probably just scum, though

[fireisredsir]

because usually when you're town you are actually proactive on occasion and here i don't feel like you care about finding scum

your votes on fey and gorilla seemed to be just bc you disagreed with their claimed PR usage

[fireisredsir]

Also this might be mean but I don’t actually think town Enchant cares that much about how I use my role.

Why anime girls get all cool roles and brutally waste them, literally unbearable.

like here at this point you are saying that fey is lying about their role and that you think theyre scum and you're voting them, and yet when talking to them you say they wasted their role. which isn't really a consistent mindset

[fireisredsir]

idk im not an expert at reading you by any means but i think you fit in most teams i can think of and there haven't really been any posts you've made that make me think "yes, town enchant"

and i think you have to be flipped at some point and i think its better for us if thats via lim

[fireisredsir]

If no one takes charge we're going to end up havuing a path of least resistance vote on enchant, because no one actually wants to defend him.

do you disagree with the idea that if enchant is town then maf probably want them alive as an invictus shield? im actually curious, im not sure that my line of thinking is correct there, but it makes sense to me

If Enchant is town he's a useful mis-elim, either way.

useful mis-flip, yes, but thats inevitable. i think there's more utility to scum for that flip to be via invictus bc invictus is harder for them to control or predict

[fireisredsir]

i think gorilla is talking about enchant's rolefish on bell earlier, which is def something enchant would do as scum to try to get some utility out before dying

[fireisredsir]

maybe im tunneled but looking back on that section i don't really buy meuh's reaction to the fake dayvig

[fireisredsir]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

[fireisredsir]

I still think Dun is scum so I’ll have to recheck Gorilla’s push on him yesterday, I’m curious if it looks like bussing at all

i don't think dunn and gorilla paired is very likely due to the way the luke situation played out

[fireisredsir]

I still think Dun is scum so I’ll have to recheck Gorilla’s push on him yesterday, I’m curious if it looks like bussing at all

i don't think dunn and gorilla paired is very likely due to the way the luke situation played out

Why is that? I can’t say that part of the game particularly stuck to me

dunn volunteered to pair with luke on gorilla. i guess maybe he was just willing to let luke shoot his teammate? actually he did say start of next day that he moved his invictus off gorilla so maybe he was planning to do that all along. ig it's not impossible but it seems less likely to me

[fireisredsir]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

i also think this makes meuh very unlikely paired with gorilla. calling out two partners as S/S on d2 seems kinda throwy

[fireisredsir]

this is like 90+% devil's advocate/my own annoyance talking

but I'm p. sure you mentioned some of the gorilla/marci posting from Meuh being potentially tmi before - would gorilla being scum make it feel substantially different to you? And regardless of whether gorilla flips scum, does her potential tmi on marci feel that different from Cakez's pushes on marci that you thought could be bussing?

uhh yes? the point was that it's scummy if she's fake partner hunting for her partner before that partner flips, and then using that to push town. it's not scummy at all to be hunting for real partner associations, it's dumb play. technically i guess you could call it tmi, but there's basically no advantage to doing it, and i think meuh is smarter than that. it's scummy tmi if the person is using it to advance scum wincon. so if gorilla is scum, then meuh wasn't really gaining anything by pushing marci/gorilla, and so is much more likely to be town. it's also possible that it's meuh scum gorilla town. i just don't think they're paired

i don't really understand the comparison to cakez at all tbh, they're p different situations

[fireisredsir]

i just don't think they're paired

and why can’t we both be town?
Like I get thinking we’re not S/S but I’m not following your logic

my logic was about why you're not likely to be S/S. ruling out pairings at this stage of the game when there's a narrow poe is v useful. i didn't conclude that exactly one of you is scum. most teams that im considering do have one of you on them, though, but it is possible you're both town

[fireisredsir]

ok so ive been thinking about possible teams. RR and bell are ruled out. i think ive just accepted atp that if kovu is scum then i have lost to it, and am not considering that currently. maybe ill reconsider that at some point but i kinda doubt it. we did have a moment at start of day where we were paranoid of each other after the flips due to setup spec but tbh i kinda think thats what maf wanted by killing val. i don't think it really makes sense for kovu to nk val here.

so that leaves: gamma, gorilla, meuh, dunn, fey.

im ruling out teams with gorilla+meuh for now, based on reasoning i gave earlier and their interactions today add to that feeling. i think thats the only pairing im really ok with ruling out completely rn.

i do also think that gorilla+dunn is pretty unlikely, due to the luke situation. that one is still possible though, maybe, it might depend on the roles scum have.

that means the only really viable gorilla team fmpov is gorilla+gamma+fey. looking just at their interactions, this is actually... very possible. which is unfortunate, if it weren't viable i could feel comfortable treating gorilla as town for now. but gorilla defused the fey wagon yesterday, gamma fits well as a gorilla partner, and generally throughout the game they've been approaching the game from different angles in a way that it feels like a scum team might. gamma vs fey had a bit of a 1v1 yesterday, but both kind of backed off each other in a strange way, and i could easily see the whole thing as being a somewhat awkward distancing attempt.

gamma+meuh+dunn... eh, maybe possible?? gamma interactions with dunn don't really look paired, and that would mean both dunn partners were bussing him yesterday before the wagon dissolved, im not sure about that. dunn and meuh could easily work as a pair, im just not sure if gamma fits in there. i don't want to rule this one out but i think of these options it seems like the least viable to me

gamma+fey+dunn, slightly more possible imo. fey pushed dwlee in counter to dunn on d2, and again we have the gamma+fey pairing that just feels like it fits in a lot of ways. this would mean gamma has pushed all three of his scum partners at various points though, so eh. maybe? maybe not.

gamma+meuh+fey, very possible. they've pretty consistently been spread out across different wagons, there's no real interactions between them that feel unpartnered, the biggest thing here is fey's push on meuh d2. she wasn't ever really pushing very hard for her, though, and the scumread dropped off and disappeared after a while.

dunn+meuh+fey, hmm, kinda possible. meuh came into yesterday saying that dunn and fey looked like the most likely marci partners. i had the same conclusion, maybe she was just tmi but that feels weird to me. i think its more likely that if meuh is scum, it's with one of dunn/fey, not both. all three of these also jumped onto cakez start of yesterday which is slightly unlikely imo.

[fireisredsir]

so mostly just from looking at how those possible pairings position against each other, interact, and vote, i think a team of gamma/fey + one of meuh/gorilla fits best

this isn't really taking my individual reads into account much, but tbh at this point im not really sure how much i trust myself on those. so maybe trying for a new approach is the way to go

ik that trying for whole team solves is like... not always the smartest way to go, bc sometimes people are just good at distancing or fake clearing associatives, so i don't want to rely on it too heavily. i wanna look more closely at how the game has progressed with these pairings in mind, though

mostly im just kinda wanting to hear input from bell and RR and see what they're thinking

[fireisredsir]

I currently have my Invictus pointed squarely at Gamma and have had him in my solve since yesterday so... weird team concept.

you've pushed meuh hard. meuh and gorilla have pushed each other hard. gamma has pushed dunn hard. dunn has pushed gorilla kinda hard and offered to vig him with luke. you and gamma have pushed each other recently. meuh has pushed dunn a bit recently.

literally every possible team has someone bussing someone. that isn't even remotely surprising at this stage of the game with this narrow of a poe.

you 100% know better than this. this is such a snap reaction, zero level defense. i don't get it

[fireisredsir]

The lazy answer is 'usually there's a deepwolf', who through either effort or bussing or both, has put in the work to carry their team to victory if everyone else on the scumteam dies, and nobody else except you and fire really fit that - both of you have put enough effort into the game and pressured marci enough that everyone's reactions to both of ya'll have been "yeah that's fine" or better for the entire game and I'd be surprised if anyone claims to have targeted one of you two with an invictus shot since n2.

The slightly less lazy answer I already mentioned a piece of earlier - in a game where town get twice as many eliminations as mafia do kills, mafia need to have an actual plan to make it through the game, and generally they're aware enough of how they're perceived and the game-state to make one that doesn't suck. Unless you somehow get 4 Enchants on a scumteam, the plan is never "let's ALL lurk and hammer randomly and hope we win that way", and for a game like this there's going to be a Plan A Day 1 for "Ideally we can push these townies" and later a Plan B for "scum 1 gets/got elim'd early by elim/Invictus" and even later a plan C for "scum 2 gets a major wagon on them today" and etc etc. My gut is that you fit that best yesterday with the marci push d2 from you, that I think would be reasonable for you-scum to expect wouldn't go anywhere and just get some distancing in given your complaints about people not playing the game and not following you, but frankly that's more gut and paranoia than an actual conviction - your play yesterday was erratic but the only part I actually find scummy there was your brief push on me for voting Enchant early game+me posting from my personal PT, which I think could reasonably come from town. Fire also makes sense as a deepwolf as *the reasonable scum*, particularly after yesterday, in that he helped push marci early but also tried to convince me of both Lavar-scum D1 and Cakez possibly being scum with marci yesterday with decent but wrong reasonings and not really budging to consider my POV much on either.
Nobody else I think feels like they came out of the marci wagon with what could be a plan to get to endgame.

there's an issue with your line of thinking here. you're saying that a deepwolf usually exists, and define it as someone who puts in the effort or the bussing to make it to endgame. but in order to determine who it is, you're looking at the output, not the input. you're saying that because me and kovu are mostly townread, we make sense as the deepwolf. but an attempted deepwolf can't control how they get read, they can only control what they put into the game. and it seems like you're disregarding meuh as a possibility here just because she's in the poe and some people have called her out for scummy behavior. she's still put in the effort and the bussing to qualify

[fireisredsir]

okay, everyone whose name isn't Bell or Kovu, full readslist of all remaining players (you do not need to include us or Bell) next time you're in thread please

~Rhyme

kovu
dunn
gorilla
gamma
fey
meuh

prob this

[fireisredsir]

Like I think the sort of weird condescending disappointed tone is just like. “What.”

i don't think i was condescending or disappointed? im saying it doesn't make sense for you to have that thought as town

[fireisredsir]

you 100% know better than this.

Why though
Like why is this an assumption you're making here, she's clearly not that engaged with the game

was a player-specific comment, not a game-specific comment. as a player she knows that at this stage in the game it's p likely that scum will be bussing somewhere. because she's a good scum player and has played mafia a lot. her immediate reaction to me proposing a possible team that includes her being "well, thats a weird team, bc then id be bussing" is just... not a thought that makes sense given what she should know about how to play the game of mafia. so i think it's more likely to be an attempt to dismiss that comes from scum

[fireisredsir]

Like I think the sort of weird condescending disappointed tone is just like. “What.”

i don't think i was condescending or disappointed? im saying it doesn't make sense for you to have that thought as town

“You know better than this” is 100% a weirdchamp moment.

it's relevant to why the comment is suspicious, though? if you were a new player and had no idea how to play the scum alignment then it would be reasonable for you to dismiss a team in that way as town. you're not, so it's not reasonable, so it's suspicious

[fireisredsir]

the ability to say that, for one

what do you lose from it? it didn't go anywhere

[fireisredsir]

I currently have my Invictus pointed squarely at Gamma and have had him in my solve since yesterday so... weird team concept.

this was your initial response though? you said that it didn't make sense as a team bc you had gamma in your solve since yesterday and you're saying he's your strongest scumread

saying that you would commit fully or not at all, and wouldn't go halfway is a very different response and a more understandable one. i still take issue with your original response tho

[fireisredsir]

I mean I lose when it’s like... pointed out I didn’t ~really commit~ and instead just focused on killing town. Like yeah sure this is all things I can just say but generally whenever I bus I bus to death and not like pithy half-measures.

i also think if you're scum with gamma here you probably expected to die before him based on the level of effort you're each putting in and how you're generally positioned, and so the bus from your end wouldn't be for the purpose of bussing to death, it would be for the sake of distancing

[fireisredsir]

Also @fire

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=87057

Read this for an example of how bussing with me happens. (Also note the setup in regards to me *choosing* to bus.)

im not really sure whats so different beyond you seeming to be much more excited about playing that game than this one? maybe thats AI, actually, idk? looking at your push on chara tho, im not sure what im supposed to be seeing as different. i think there you have a cleaner progression of gradually building up suspicion and giving reasons etc, but you're also just... playing the game more. as proportional to your engagement level in the game overall, the push on gamma isn't too far off. i guess you could argue you wouldn't pivot onto enchant, but im not sure why thats clearing. you have some slightly emotionally charged back and forths there, similar to here.

so, idk, there are some differences, and it's hard to judge without reading the entire game which im not gonna do (also don't think i can understand the setup well enough [although it looks really cool actually and i might read it fully sometime later] to comprehend why you would or wouldn't bus with just a brief read, the sentencing thing is confusing me enough as it is), but i don't think seeing you bus in that way is doing much to convince me that you wouldn't bus in this way

[fireisredsir]

fire/Kovu if you're anything aside from Generic Neighbors now's the time to say it

i am not

[fireisredsir]

im tired

i kinda just wanted to sheep the conftown here but they're not even really playing the game so

town leader kovu? she found marci scum when most people had forgotten she existed

idk

ive been looking at vote movements over d1 and d2 and nothing is really changing my mind about the likelihood of a meuh/fey/gamma team so far. the way fey and meuh handled marci both look pretty paired to me, and it combines well with gamma who was sort of tunneling on marci (luke, are you still reading this? this is for you. maf can be tunneling) and probably if that's the team he would be looking to go the distance

i think in general meuh has, like, all game hopped onto reads after other people make them even when it doesn't really make sense given her read on the person, and it's really scummy, actually. it's like a very consistent pattern that she does this. she did it with lavar. she did it with enchant. she did it with gorilla about me. she consistently shifts her reads and interactions to treat whoever she's talking to as more towny regardless of if that makes sense with her reads and progressions.

actually i don't really think her progression on me makes sense at all, i didn't feel like her responses to my push on her earlier ever really questioned my motivations or alignment. it didn't feel like she was trying to sort me back, which would make sense if she was actually starting to feel paranoia about me like she claims she was.

i just think that her backing out of the 1v1 with gorilla and pivoting into sheeping him on dunn and me is hard to see coming from a town mindset. she leaves that engagement with a dunn/fey/fire read in 2890. but then once fey is back in thread, she's following her on some weird point about my tone, and goes back to a gorilla/fire/dunn read in 2930. and then 2939 is suddenly back in the mindset of thinking gorilla is scum. then she wants dunn/gorilla/fey dead in 2982. but then when gorilla shows up again, she says that a dunn/fey/fire team is a decent solve in 2985. it's just all slimy and political and all she seems to care about is being on the side of whoever is currently in the thread that she's talking to. it's classic chat maf scum play, thriving in the real time engagements and the social game and leaning on them heavily but lacking a consistent town mindset when you step back and look at the bigger picture

[fireisredsir]

i felt like gorilla was townier in the 1v1 with meuh earlier

why do you think gorilla would have claimed bodyguard when he did?

[fireisredsir]

i don't think we need to end day super early, but im with kovu here, i still think that meuh's progressions just don't make town sense and are shifting based on what is convenient to her at the time

VOTE: Meuh

[fireisredsir]

Say I die and flip town, who realistically makes sense as a Gammagooey teammate? Not Dunn. Not Fey. Not Kovu. It'd have to be Gamma/fire/Meuh but then fire went out of his way to case his teammate yesterday for no reason when most people were townreading her?? Just doesn't make a lick of sense.

why not fey? i don't think their interactions are unbelievable as partners

[fireisredsir]

Pedit: Wow Kovu, it's almost as if you're actively looking for more reasons to believe a scumteam you already think existed

why this shade/discredit? don't you think kovu is town? this sounds like you're talking to a SR

[fireisredsir]

i don't know why you would know as scum that people would vote after you did? like why do you get credit for "starting a vote chain" when the people who voted after you are unrelated?

if it was a planned bus though, scum usually want to get on as early as possible

i don't really get what about this is something you wouldn't do as scum

[fireisredsir]

I pretty clearly cast a vote that lead to a chain of several more votes happening immediately after.

i mean if you don't want to debate the point further thats fine ig but like, even if the votes were related to yours... how does this make you town? are you saying that you could have predicted that your vote would lead to a chain of others voting?

[fireisredsir]

bell if you'd prefer fey to meuh im okay with that

i think i can see worlds where fey is scum and meuh isn't, but i have a hard time seeing worlds where meuh is scum and fey isn't (would have to be meuh/dunn/gamma, which... doesn't feel right?).

i can't see really worlds where they're both town (would have to be gorilla/dunn/gamma, both gorilla and gamma are hard bussing dunn without actually flipping him? and dunn offered to let luke shoot gorilla? both seem unlikely).

i can def see worlds where they're both scum and i think that's what's most likely

[fireisredsir]

Why aren’t you scum this game fire?

i don't think im really capable of maintaining a consistent town thought process through this whole game and the hood with kovu. like, ask me what i was thinking at any point in the game and im p sure i could tell you. most of my thoughts are in the thread or in the hood anyway and i think my process is clear enough already. as scum im decent at live interaction and engagement but im bad at making fake cases on people and controlling the game. my play this game has basically been the opposite of that due to the postcap, ive been way more wall-posty than usual and less live interaction. i think ive cased and pushed people for way more in depth reasoning than i would be able to come up with as scum

as someone who is widely townread d1 and d2 i think i set myself up better for endgame? like i wouldn't have been pushing town for most of d2 and d3 i would have committed to being the deepwolf or whatever and bussed

i don't think i ever kill val here bc 1) me and kovu wanted to push val overnight, and i think you did as well. there's no reason to use a NK on someone in the poe if they're limmable (and plus, i'm immune to his checks). i think scum just literally didn't know that val was limmable bc the hoods are pure and most of the suspicion was in there, and if the hoods are pure, a TA is extra dangerous to them. and 2) if i know that val is a town TA, and he's probably aiming at cakez, killing him immediately makes people paranoid of me/kovu. it shines a spotlight on us that is just unnecessary

i also don't think i would disagree with kovu and argue back with her reads on late d1/early d2 to the point where she blows up the hood and says im scum cause like... that's kind of a predictable reaction. id just be trying to agree with her as much as possible early and then nk her before she flips her read so i don't have to keep up the act

there's probably more things i wouldn't have done here if i were scum but those are the main things that come to mind

[fireisredsir]

On reflection and not being tremendously annoyed at terrible logic the reason I don't want to go after Meuh today is because there's a dark timeline world where fire is scum taking advantage of the deathtunnel between us. The way he led the diversion onto Enchant yesterday in the total absence of leadership in the game left a bad taste in my mouth, which is part of my lingering paranoia toward him.

ok, we can talk about it if you want

why do you think i do that as scum from that position? things were heading towards a lim on cakez. i was willing to trust kovu on her read of cakez town due to what she'd seen in the hood, and i didn't really want that to be the lim, so i wanted to go somewhere that i felt had a higher chance of hitting scum

if im the "deepwolf" why do i lead a charge onto town when it's not really necessary at all?

and anyway i still stand by what i said that limming enchant was pro-town. what would have happened otherwise? probably we lim cakez, and then scum shoot val who probably just shoots enchant. so literally exactly the same result. maybe it was a mistake, idk, but nobody was doing anything and i think that a lim on cakez would have been significantly worse, actually, because then RR never gets added to the hood

if i were scum, all that i accomplished was getting my hands dirty for no reason

[fireisredsir]

i've also already said i prefer a lim on fey to one on meuh so idk how i would be taking advantage of you vs meuh either. kovu wants meuh though and i think both meuh and fey are likely scum, so, that's fine by me

[fireisredsir]

was re-reading marci's iso to see if the posts from that side look unpaired with meuh as she claims. don't really think they're clearing, she does interact with her a lot but i wouldn't expect her to ignore all of her partners completely. the point about how marci would have a more nuanced take is ok ig, but i think thats not too hard to fake. i also don't think it's at all true that scum talking with each other in thread are always on the same emotional wavelength

and i do think this post looks somewhat partnered:

do u think i should focus on tryimg to read meuh

i havent been trying to cuz always being wrong about her isnt very fromis vibes yknow? shes only really been a side thought to me so i havent been constantly updating about thoughts on her!!

there's pretty minimal interaction with dunn and fey, slightly more with gorilla but still not much, and then a decent amount of back and forth with gamma and meuh. id be surprised if her partners were exactly dunn/fey/gorilla, i think she'd put some distance out somewhere

i do think fey looks the worst of the group, especially with 2088 just looking like a late attempt at throwing some distance up with someone that she hadn't really interacted with much at all and had been townreading for not much reason before

[fireisredsir]

Thoughts on gamma gooey?

with marci interactions? prob looks the least paired of the group

in general? ive gone back and forth. there's been a few times where it felt like he has a conclusion that he wants to reach and is ignoring information that goes outside of that. there's some effort to move the game forward in general, but sometimes it feels like he has an agenda behind that

i kinda think he fits on most teams im considering atm. unless im wrong on dunn, but i kinda felt like dunn was the designated miselim that scum wanted yesterday, and i have a hard time really seeing teams with dunn on them that make sense. dunn/meuh/fey would prob be my guess if gamma town? if gamma scum, its prob with fey and either gorilla or meuh

i think it's just fey in like every world i can think of

[fireisredsir]

im around, gorilla isn't my top choice but i could be wrong, i agree that at least meuh is trying even tho i don't actually think her reasons are very compelling. atp im ok with just going with whoever the conftowns tell us to go with

[fireisredsir]

Fire why are you not scum other than lots of posts in your PT with kovu

if you want more reasons than 3075 i can think of some for you, those just seemed the most significant to me

[fireisredsir]

i don't think the number of posts in the hood really matters, it's more about the content

[fireisredsir]

at times the main thread has been kinda grim tbh but the hood with kovu has been a ton of fun, and even if we lose we'll always have that!!

[fireisredsir]

i like the postcap format to make the thread more manageable and prevent any one player from taking over the game completely by just drowning the thread in posts, but it does cut down on the shitposting

maybe like 150 or 200 cap is ideal

[fireisredsir]

@Everyone: one person who do you want to kill? Who is essentially your top scum read. Keep it extremely concise.

fey

[fireisredsir]

ok well uh overnight i had the solve of meuh/fey/gamma... so... guess that was wrong

im really kinda surprised by the dunn flip bc i felt like he didn't really fit into any team that i could see. will try to sort out who the town is in that group of 3 tomorrow based on dunn interactions

movement of wagons and stuff will be easier to see now that there's 2 scum flips as well

[fireisredsir]

that role seems kinda nutty actually

[fireisredsir]

had a bit of a weird day that didn't leave any mental room for thinking about this, will try to do so tomorrow

[fireisredsir]

Hey fire+Kovu can you go over what you talked about around here when the D3 Dunn wagon was happening?

yea sure

- kovu saying that she is tunneled on gamma, but bell wants dunn over gamma, i agree. im kinda tunneled on meuh at the time
- kovu says that cakez has gotten townier in the hood and she thinks he's town now (idr how much of this made it into the thread but she thought he was scummy in there for a while)
- us talking about how people forgot about dunn and were tunneling cakez instead, and how we were glad to see votes on him now
- im still hesitant about cakez and then we have some spec about the town claims, end up considering if val could be scum
- kovu wants to vote dunn but isn't sure yet and wants to take a step back to see what happens. i feel kinda similar but am more focused on meuh. this is around where cakez is the main wagon and cakez voted dunn
- kovu is kinda going back and forth on dunn, some points for scum and some points for town
- i ask if cakez ever questioned her TR on him, and then we talk about cakez for a bit, she explains more about how he acted in their hood, basically says she thinks he's never scum here. i say dunn's narrative for why cakez is scum doesn't really make sense
- we talk some more about dunn and cakez. some discussion about the whole gamma broken link thing. then after thats over we both think dunn is the best direction to push next, but both also think that enchant is like on every possible team.
- i say that cakez is concerning me and ask her if the narrative he's giving in thread fits with what happened in the hood
- she says dw about it, he's town, what he said fits with what actually happened
- we talk about it a bit more and i decide ok good enough and dunn is probably just scum here
- i say that meuh's vote on dunn scares me bc i still think she's scum but that i will stay strong, we both talk about meuh being likely scum
- some talk about enchant not hammering, and dunn being impossible to lim, some talk about meuh/dunn pairing with meuh looking for an excuse to jump off dunn, wagon kinda dies here

[fireisredsir]

reading through that reminded me of how i was very sketched out by meuh and dunn both going for fey right off the bat, and then gamma pushing that despite SRing dunn all game

it felt like people were trying to shove an elim through on either fey or cakez. me and kovu both agreed it felt like scum were in control there

one of my hangups for meuh/dunn/gamma was idk if they all push together like that in the same direction?? but ig maybe they just thought they could get away with it?

[fireisredsir]

and also found a comment i made in the hood on 2441 which was that i felt like the dunn points were a lot better than the fey ones... which on the one hand, okay, so he's pushing harder for the one that has flipped scum so far... but the thing is that he actually wasn't really? even though the case is better?

gamma can you talk about why you were focused more on pushing fey there instead of dunn at the start of the day?

[fireisredsir]

-The confidence on Cakez scum for "rule of 3" with her/cakez/gorilla (and apparently other reasons that I can't find more of other than "he was biased on marci")

also how is this a point for fey being scum? why would she bring up the rule of 3 thing if it was actually true?

[fireisredsir]

I went over it when I voted Fey originally D3 - from the marci interactions Fey looks the worst out of anyone in the game, and I thought (and still think) the Datisi investigation is probably a lie because it didn't look like it had any thought put into it, and it would be burning literally half of Fey's claimed power doing it. Maybe if you ignore my initial post D3 about Fey then you could say the points on Dunn were stronger than the ones on Fey but I don't really see that being the case including that - And after re-reading and posting that I was very happy to kill either of the two that day and I think that's pretty clear from my posts+vote on Dunn afterwards. Also as a sidenote, by the time I posted in thread for the first time D3 (D3 start was 2am my time) at 9something am, Dunn had already voted Fey, hopped off, and never voted Fey again for the rest of the game. I just said the previous day that I was fine voting for a scumread even if another scumread of mine was voting them (with marci & Meuh voting them) and it turned out to work quite well, my thoughts/philosophy on that didn't change overnight.

what's weird to me is the initial push onto fey d3. it feels like you came in with a plan, not like you were pushing your strongest scumread

idk how voting alongside a scumread (i assume you're talking about voting fey even though dunn did?) is really relevant to what i was talking about

but anyway speaking of your scumread on Meuh, can you talk about your progression there? you had her as a scumread for most of d2, and even when voting Marci you said that meuh could possibly be bussing her. im not really sure how you got from there to feeling like they were unlikely partners (and we've already been over that) to then having her at the top of your reads in 2951. and then now it feels like you have her in a "let's deal with this later" pile, but like... you should probably be dealing with it now?

the post where you're campaigning to gorilla that dunn and meuh can't be partnered in 2866 before dunn has flipped is also kinda sketchy imo

[fireisredsir]

Aside from that I liked her day 3 posting

what about it did you like, specifically?

also, what was the point of asking for a summary from the hood of stuff around the dunn wagon? did you learn anything from that? what were you hoping to learn?

[fireisredsir]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

i also think this makes meuh very unlikely paired with gorilla. calling out two partners as S/S on d2 seems kinda throwy

this is like 90+% devil's advocate/my own annoyance talking

but I'm p. sure you mentioned some of the gorilla/marci posting from Meuh being potentially tmi before - would gorilla being scum make it feel substantially different to you? And regardless of whether gorilla flips scum, does her potential tmi on marci feel that different from Cakez's pushes on marci that you thought could be bussing?

also, can you walk me through what you were thinking when you made this post?

[fireisredsir]

@Meuh - Dunn Fey and a deepwolf - probably one of fire/Kovu, and if I had to say this instant I'd say Kovu. I know that people will think that opinion is garbo but I really think that one scum has likely been putting a ton of effort into the game and set themselves up to actually live through the ridiculous number of Invictus shots this game has, because otherwise you're just asking to get gunned down halfway through the game by random Invictus shots.

The thing is that effort isn't really something you just assign players?
Like if scum ended up with none of the players in the game putting a very high amount of effort in, that doesn't mean suddenly one of them is going to change their playstyle for that purpose.
Scum might just be significantly losing rn, who knows? I don't see why we'd make the assumption they weren't.
It's optimal for scum to have high effort players yes but no one in the history of mafia has ever played a game optimally.

You're right about the *effort* in general being more player-based than alignment-based a lot of the time

But if scum is all in <Enchant/Fey/Dunn/you> then I think they've set themselves up to lose by not having one player bus convincingly or make some sort of claim shakeup to try to salvage the game here, gorilla I've had a strong town read on the whole game and has made a likely suicidal claim of bodyguard, Cakez doesn't make sense as scum with my two strongest scumreads of Fey/Dunn, and Val I guess I am overlooking a bit because of the traffic Analyst claim fitting tbh? Fey/Dunn/Val does make sense too tbh, I just haven't given it really any thought until now since them both claiming PRs today made it much more likely that one of them gets elim'd in the near future.

Okay but look at that pool.
I am town
Fey and Dunn were seemingly just not around near EOD
Enchant literally can't bus convincingly based on playstyle

So... yes I think ordinarily they would try something of the sort, but within the circumstances? It sounds pretty much impossible

If the scumteam is literally Fey/Dunn/Enchant then I don't really think it's possible for town to lose this game and tbf MAYBE every like 1 in 10 games you get lucky and the game really is that simple

But I do have a decade worth of games on site and a nice little wiki page to display most of 'em that tend to have a lesson of "if you assume the scumteam all played bad and you've solved the game early, you will probably get your shit rocked in unless you continue putting in effort as town and at least consider unlikely people as scum and re-read and discuss things to see if that's actually the case"

The reason I'm saying you or Fire has to be the deepwolf (if there are any, which Gamma seems to think) is that no one else even meets the towncred criteria to be one.
Bell and R&R are confirmed.
Cakez, Fey, Dunn, Enchant and I clearly weren't/aren't townread enough to be deepwolf.
Gorilla, Val and Gamma were more trusted, but still had significant doubt cast against them.
You and Fire are the only ones that actually fit the criteria of what a deepwolf is.
I think you've asked later why I don't think Gamma can be a deepwolf and I mean the answer is that he literally can't be a deepwolf. His name has been thrown around as potential scum way too much to be one.

ok, wait

gamma makes the case that if there's a deepwolf it has to be me or kovu bc we're the only ones who have been townread enough through some combination of effort or bussing to qualify

the logic is just straight up wrong, bc deepwolves are not always successful. they don't always get widely townread. the only thing that scum can control is the inputs that they put in. they can do the effort or the bussing, but sometimes they just don't get townread for it. that doesn't mean they aren't trying to be a deepwolf

i push back on this in 2623. at the time i think it's towny that gamma is making this mistake bc ive seen town make it before, but knowing now that he used this kind of logic to rule out both meuh as a dunn partner (where he would know that dunn was flipping scum if he were scum here) and also meuh as a deepwolf is... very sketchy

and meuh's immediate reaction is to push back on it too. she recognizes correctly that the logic is wrong (although she's using that to say "maybe all the scum are low effort" rather than "maybe someone put in effort but didn't get townread"), and okay, that's fine

but then

300 posts later she's using exactly the same logic to rule out gamma as a deepwolf, saying that he isn't townread enough to count even though it's entirely possible that he tried to put in the effort or the bussing but still just didn't manage to get townread. it's the same logic and they're using it to townread each other and divert onto me and kovu

[fireisredsir]

gamma makes the case that if there's a deepwolf it has to be me or kovu bc we're the only ones who have been townread enough through some combination of effort or bussing to qualify

Isn’t that what I said, not Gamma? I think you’re conflating whose post is whose

no? you both said it, and he said it first

@Meuh - Dunn Fey and a deepwolf - probably one of fire/Kovu, and if I had to say this instant I'd say Kovu. I know that people will think that opinion is garbo but I really think that one scum has likely been putting a ton of effort into the game and set themselves up to actually live through the ridiculous number of Invictus shots this game has, because otherwise you're just asking to get gunned down halfway through the game by random Invictus shots.

[fireisredsir]

the logic is just straight up wrong, bc deepwolves are not always successful. they don't always get widely townread. the only thing that scum can control is the inputs that they put in. they can do the effort or the bussing, but sometimes they just don't get townread for it. that doesn't mean they aren't trying to be a deepwolf

I think we fundamentally view what a deepwolf is differently. To me there’s 3 factors that need to be met:
1. Be scum
2. Have high thread presence or otherwise put a lot of effort into the game
3. Be widely townread

To me what you describe as an “unsuccessful deepwolf” is just scum with high effort or thread presence. Being townread is a prerequisite to being a deepwolf, to me.
I think you’re also arguing from the perspective of “whoever the scumteam tries to use as a deepwolf is by default a deepwolf” while I define it from the perspective of a deepwolf being someone that actually practically fulfills a specific role in the game.

i think hunting for deepwolves using that criteria is a p useless way of looking at the game, then, bc scum can't actually control whether they get townread or not (they can try but they don't always succeed), so you're basing one of your criteria for scumhunting on something that scum can't control, which is ???

[fireisredsir]

Remember when Kovu made a similar argument against me on day 4? Literally right before you voted for me? and I spent several posts replying to that specific point?
Quoted the posts in question for you

??? yes i am very aware of that

the point of that argument, from what i saw at least, was that you were lacking a consistent town thought process in how you viewed and interpreted posts. which was scummy

the point of this argument is not focusing on that aspect, exactly because it has already been gone over in detail, and instead focusing on the newer point that you and gamma are both using this argument to make the case that the other can't possibly be a deepwolf even though imo you each could qualify depending on your definition

maybe to you the two feel similar bc fypov you felt the previous argument was also relevant to your connection with gamma (and it would make sense that you would feel this way if you are actually scum with him), but to me at least they're pretty significantly different points

[fireisredsir]

idk i think it's just meuh+gamma

RR and kovu do you want the day to continue? im ready to hammer if you want to get the flip but im also fine with continuing to talk things out

[fireisredsir]

im just not really a quickhammer type of person

but if you and RR don't have anything more to say/see in thread then i can hammer

[fireisredsir]

aight let's just do this we can sort out the rest overnight/tomorrow

VOTE: Meuh

[fireisredsir]

hey whats up

ngl i was kinda convinced overnight that it was kovu and that i had just been pocketed

BUT i kinda think kovu if scum would have been able to convince RR to shoot not her partner?

i just had a really hard time understanding gamma/fey as being the final two. but i guess maybe gamma was just willing to bus his whole team?

idk

i reread most of the hood last night and i don't think it's impossible for kovu to fake but it would be impressive if she kept up that willingness to effort the whole time

[fireisredsir]

OK.

As long as you can tell me you can see some possible legitimate thought process that leads to Fey jumping off the gamma wagon first as soon as the thread is unlocked while still thinking gamma is scum, instead of trying to make everyone else see it while attention (and a decent wagon) was on that slot.

Don't need to know what it is, just that's you've considered it and you aren't playing hope mafia in this game.

I'm not, there's real reasons behind it and there are various things that have bothered me/given me doubts about Fey!town this game, but unless her game has radically changed from what it was I think her reaction to pressure outweighs pretty much everything else

again, if we were to flip a number of the most likely scum slots (let's say dunn, cakez, enchant all die within the next 2 days and 2 flip town) re-examine, bc then maybe we are in a world where her game has had that change to it... but I think that for now Fey would be a bad lim that's very very likely to flip town

~Rhyme

Okay we kill meuh

Bell had her in his solve (also thinks it’s gamma)

Gorilla said meuh next

After that idk, I still think gamma>fey but Fey was in the same section of my early reads as dunn so quite possibly I’m just wrong?

VOTE: meuh

these are the last things RR said about you. i don't think it's at all out of the question that he could shoot you?

i don't even really understand what you're arguing here actually -- you think kovu couldn't have convinced RR to shoot you or me?

[fireisredsir]

also the "I read the hood last night" right, the hood I barely talked in cause we were celebrating independence day on the 2nd? yeah...
Fey, last niht fire pretending to suddenly think it's me.. was just like, what even where does THIS come from??"

scum me had 0 need to out this hood at the start of d2... plus so much more..

i read the earlier parts of the hood. obv we didn't post much in it last night, that wasn't what I was saying

there is 0 chance i ever express a suspicion of you here if i were scum and you're town, there's literally no benefit to it, it will just make you more suspicious of me

[fireisredsir]

I'm pretty positive they wouldn't have listened.

okay. you know mena better than i do so maybe you're right. what's your point here though?

[fireisredsir]

no, that's your point to kovu. what is your point in response to what I was saying?

[fireisredsir]

i said that i thought that scum!kovu would probably be able to convince RR to shoot town. since gamma flipped scum, that would just mean anyone but gamma.

kovu would almost certainly be able to convince RR to shoot me. she could just claim I slipped in hood or something

RR shot scum. that makes me think kovu is more likely to be town.

your response to that is that what I said doesn't fit with RR's trajectory on you. how is that relevant to the point i was making?

[fireisredsir]

it was one specific point that was relevant to the flip which was what was immediately on my mind after seeing the flip

there's approximately a billion other things that have happened this game, so no, that isn't a "case". why would i even be making that case? i was just thinking out loud

[fireisredsir]

im saying that your response to it was bad because it doesn't come from a town mindset. you were just looking for a gotcha and didn't stop to think it all the way through

[fireisredsir]

ok VOTE: Fey

[fireisredsir]

im saying that your response to it was bad because it doesn't come from a town mindset. you were just looking for a gotcha and didn't stop to think it all the way through

You're wasting your time talking about a point that doesn't go anywhere though. Why should I entertain it more than a gotcha.

it was the first thing on my brain after seeing the flip. obv it doesn't matter now but i didn't have this 3p planned out from the start like you clearly did, so i was just thinking things through still

[fireisredsir]

fire, how you were before the meuh flip was so odd, it literally felt like you were trying to do... something?? idk how to explain that.

what do you mean?

[fireisredsir]

Vote Count 2.3

FLAVOR

"You know, Selah is going to be the next Babylon, the next Rome, but bigger. Lasting. We're really starting from zero here, but one day it'll be the center of the all economic and cultural activity, the premier economic hub of the galaxy."

"You don't have to sell me on it anymore, Elon. We're already onboard and making plans. I think everyone's excited for the new Gigafactory."

"Tangibles are important but it's the name, the naming is also important. Selah is a Biblical word, stuck in the past. We're talking about the future here!"

"...What do you have in mind? I really don't want to touch on the family, Elon, but this needs to be palatable for the residents, they have a history and by every measure at least some sense of pride."

"Mother Hive Amestris-א0"

...

Who can question a visionary?

"We'll talk about it later, we can probably get the city council onboard and maybe they'll have some ideas. For now let's get back to the plant..."

Player	Votes
Dwlee99 (6)	Fey (1569), VP Baltar (1571), Lukewarm (1577), Enchant (1587), fireisredsir (1590), Kovu (1641)
Dunnstral (5)	gorilla (1175), Gammagooey (1391), SirCakez (1600), Meuh (1631), Dwlee99 (1644)
gorilla (2)	Dunnstral (1296), Rhyme and Reason (1301)
SirCakez (1)	Val89 (1196)
Gammagooey (1)	marcistar (1239)
Meuh (1)	Malakittens (1445)
Not Voting (1)	Bell (1468)

With 17 players alive, it takes 9 votes to eliminate.

No elimination has been achieved. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2022-06-12 15:30:00).

Spoiler: Postcount Tracker

Player	Daystart postcount	Reserves
Bell	115	10
Fey	38	10
fireisredsir	89	10
Malakittens	5	10
Lukewarm	119	10
Dunnstral	26	10
Rhyme and Reason	28	10
Meuh	80	10
Val89	28	10
marcistar	57	10
Dwlee99	21	10
Gammagooey	26	10
Kovu	98	10
VP Baltar	120	10
Enchant	27	10
SirCakez	64	10
gorilla	58	10

Posts are capped at 125 posts per slot per dayphase. Please see the Ruleset and FAQ for more information and tips on tracking your postcount.

Vote Count 2.7

FLAVOR

"Cyber Rodeo was good, great, but we can do even better. For Selah, we've got to do it bigger. Cyber Rodeo was a landmark for Tesla and for Austin, but the true founding of Mother Hive Amestris-א0 will be a celebration for all mankind."

"Well Elon, that would be nice but right now it's just a bunch of rocks. I'd also prefer to lay low for a bit after the last Cybertruck debacle. That's already thrown off our plans for the Selah Gigafactory, since we've already delayed the manufacturing of that model."

"Rocks...and sand. Sand growth. You'd be surprised at what grows in sand. Anyway, have our people start working on a new festival. You know how these productions work, complementary pieces to our efforts, not inconvenient luxuries. Same themes as always, marketing knows what I like...I shouldn't even have to say who the headliner would be, right?"

"We'll see if he's available, and if not be sure to pay him until he is."

Player	Votes
marcistar (7)	Malakittens (2108), Kovu (2160), Meuh (2187), SirCakez (2188), fireisredsir (2189), Gammagooey (2193), VP Baltar (2197)
Dwlee99 (3)	Fey (1569), Enchant (1587), Lukewarm (1914)
gorilla (2)	Dunnstral (1296), Rhyme and Reason (1301)
VP Baltar (2)	Dwlee99 (1924), Val89 (2150)
Gammagooey (1)	marcistar (1239)
SirCakez (1)	Bell (1906)
Dunnstral (1)	gorilla (2135)
Not Voting (0)

With 17 players alive, it takes 9 votes to eliminate.

No elimination has been achieved. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2022-06-12 15:30:00).

Spoiler: Postcount Tracker

Player	Daystart postcount	Reserves
Bell	115	10
Fey	38	10
fireisredsir	89	10
Malakittens	5	10
Lukewarm	119	10
Dunnstral	26	10
Rhyme and Reason	28	10
Meuh	80	10
Val89	28	10
marcistar	57	10
Dwlee99	21	10
Gammagooey	26	10
Kovu	98	10
VP Baltar	120	10
Enchant	27	10
SirCakez	64	10
gorilla	58	10

Posts are capped at 125 posts per slot per dayphase. Please see the Ruleset and FAQ for more information and tips on tracking your postcount.

she basically doesn't even acknowledge the dunn wagon on d2

[fireisredsir]

ok so i think i can see now what the scumteam's plan for this game was

marci was the goon who is fine dying early

fey was the openwolf who would just push town wagons, make a fakeclaim to put suspicion on the other PRs, and then get bussed eventually

dunn was just being background character dunn and idk they probably figured he would get shot eventually but wanted him to live long enough to use his role

gamma was supposed to be the deepwolf. he bussed literally his whole team just for the hope that he could survive elo

fey's actions fit this. when marci was under threat early, she townread her in 108 and defended her in 111 and 113. there was a bit of an early wagon there and she pushed the next most viable one, bell, in 279. reading between the lines of this post, actually, she probably had guessed that he was a PR and was trying to wagon to force out a claim. she also white knights lavar and votes marci only when it isn't really viable anymore in 971. she then immediately leaves for dwlee to sheep kovu in 1011. this kind of hopping on only to hop back off is super performative.

d2, meuh calls out (correctly) that there's scum on the dwlee wagon (gamma and fey), and she votes fey. fey's reaction is the most engaged she's felt in the game thus far, immediately jumping in meuh in 1168 and shutting her reasoning down. (also note how she has all 3 flipped scum in the blue/yellow of her reads 1178). 1327 trying to shut down the clears people are handing out for the LLD kill is also super scum-motivated.

she votes dwlee, and their main read after returning to the thread is to scumread Dunn (1644), and she continues push them and campaign for more votes on them while never actually engaging with their scumread on a partner. this is v telling of a classic chainsaw. town would care to engage with the person their scumreading's suspicions, examine them, see if they're valid. it turned out that dwlee's reasoning on Dunn was later pointed out by someone else as invalid, but fey would as scum assume that they were correctly onto something. the only point she does is 1745. her primary focus is on discrediting dwlee for attacking her partner. at end of day she gives the most obligatory of mentions towards Dunn with 2074 without actually saying anything useful. there's no reason for town to say that there, but as scum she feels a need to. she then disappeared for the rest of the day and didn't post while the marci wagon was happening

d3 is where things get interesting. one scum has flipped. meuh has correctly called out Dunn and fey as being the most likely partnered with marci (also, kovu, we came to that same conclusion on the hood overnight. I wasn't wrong on everything this game!). so they need something to disrupt that. fey claims detective with useless results in 2244. the goal of this is only to buy time and draw out more claims, just like marci did. it works, and gets a val claim. there's a very cute theatre interaction with dunn after the claim, setting up the bus on her, but both of them go on cakez instead to try to push that through first. she's begging people to lim or shoot cakez here but doesn't actually do much work to push him as an elim as the day gets later. instead she just pushes for enchant (and does get her goal of val shooting cakez).

also, earlier, after she makes the claim and now is planning to go down next, she starts distancing with gamma. 2309 makes no sense coming from someone who previously had barely even touched gamma. she's pairing him with marci, giving zero reasoning (he doesn't even look that paired objectively since he pushed her lost of the game), and not actually directly pushing him just setting up the distance for later. 2587 continues this, basically treating him as confscum to the point of preflipping him in order to push his "partners" of cakez and enchant.

this is prob the scummiest thing in here to me

. she's not actively pushing gamma at all, there's zero town thought process or progression or attempt to convince anyone else that he's scum, and yet she's treating him as scum to the point where she is pushing cakez and enchant and treating them as his partners. she's expecting her and Dunn to die first here, so she's okay with tying herself to Dunn and hard defending him as long as those two are set up as opposing gamma

d4 starts and off the bat i say that i think her and gamma are partners in 2895. she responds really weirdly in 2898, and i think she was frustrated that her work she put in to attempt to untie herself from gamma wasn't successful. it's actually nuts how much she preflips gamma through this whole time and seems to have him as her most confident scumread while never actually making any attempt to case or push him. she spends p much all of d4 just being floaty, never really pushing anyone. gamma is still pushing dunn/fey as a pairing and absolutely begging people to just lim them. fey is even almost begging to get limmed with posts like 3183, where she wonders why nobody is pushing dunn and then votes meuh.

d5 she barely even posts but notice how hard gamma argues for fey over meuh. if both of those are town there's no reason for him to care that much. i had it backwards and thought it was bc meuh was town and fey was scum, but gamma was thinking one step ahead. he wanted fey dead by lim because after that flip he is confirmed to have pushed 3 scum and is never getting invictus shot, which is the only real threat to him. it's all just setting up for endgame. and yet somehow, town lands on another town, leaving him shot. it's actually p funny looking at the big picture now, seeing how gamma has planned out this whole game just hard bussing his whole team, and town just refuses to follow him onto fey and give him the cred that probably would have won him the game. not letting him bus fey actually ended up giving us a chance to win this here

summary:

1) day 1 and day 2, just defend scum, push town, chainsaw occasionally. openwolf, awoooo

2) day 3, realizes that things look bad for her and dunn, claim to draw out other claims, and set things up to let herself be bussed by dunn and gamma. continue defending dunn and pushing town hard, but begin to have an inexplicable scumread on gamma that's never really explained. never push him or case him, but preflip him anyway and vote who she thinks are his partners

3) day 4. plan to get bussed by gamma. float around. town decides to kill gorilla instead, surprise! day 5, continue the same path. gamma really really wants fey dead, because it wins him elo. town decides to kill meuh instead, surprise! gamma gets shot, oops, fey is suddenly in 3p elo after expecting to die on like d3 or d4 and has to suddenly turn it on and start playing the game

[fireisredsir]

also i never kill bell before RR here if im scum. RR has been questioning the townreads on me all game and bell has been townreading me all game. fey has incentive to kill bell tho bc RR is the one who said to sheep gorilla, and gorilla's plan would have won scum the game (lim fey/meuh, shoot the other one, then lim me). gorilla even said that gamma is never partners with fey/Dunn which is probably why gamma wanted to be sure fey went down earlier, to try to clear himself

[fireisredsir]

Like why are ya'll ignoring EVERYTHING that I've been saying about Fey for days now about her marci & Dunn interactions where she defends marci and completely ignores Dunn and the cases on him, pushes either entirely or almost entirely town for the entire damn game, and then posts shit like this that's saying "well I think they're scum but I probably still have to deal with fire tomorrow won't that be shitty >_>", like ACTUALLY WHY? It makes no damn sense for that to be coming from town, she's completely ignored everything I've said about marci & dunn both when I said it and how likely town I am because of their interactions with me now that they've flipped, and she's done nothing town for DAYS now and is probably wondering how the fuck you all are just letting her coast and get away with it, it's fucking absurd

this is scum who is legitimately annoyed that town won't let him bus

there's no reason for him to have this emotion here if the alternative is limming town meuh

[fireisredsir]

They have the "answer" now, because of my vote, but suddenly being able to put together like every single scum action in the game into a master web when there was a minimal amount of that foresight before is kind of wack)

ive been thinking about this game a ton?? like me and kovu talked a bunch in the hood on d4 I think about what the gameplan would have been for a gamma+fey team so that's been on my mind a lot already. it's just that i ended up thinking you were paired with meuh, and then the dunn flip threw me bc i had a hard time seeing you two paired with him. but even last night i was rereading and thinking about what the scum plan would have been if it was kovu or if it was you+gamma (cause those were the two options), so again i already had it on my mind. and once you voted and became confscum i went back and looked over things again and everything just kinda clicked into place finally and i understood

acting like i wouldn't be able to comprehend what your plan was is just... i don't think that's based in reality at all. the point makes no sense

[fireisredsir]

Like to me it's Very Goofy to think that a team I'm on throws away the entire idea that Gamma is the deepwolf we've been propping up on a night kill like that, knowing what the most likely outcome was. It screws me over and removes like, most factors that were keeping me alive this entire time.

this is easy for you to say in hindsight like "this was the wrong kill to make!!" but you can't have known what RR was going to do. RR basically said he was sheeping gorilla, and if he was true to that, then gorilla's path was a winning path for you. he would flip meuh, shoot you, and then the final lim based on gorilla's plan would be me

like you can say all you want that RR was never shooting you but there just isn't evidence of that in the thread so your scumteam wouldn't actually have any way of knowing that

[fireisredsir]

Like literally look at something like this. Fire isn't using anything meaningful to actually slot Gamma as town -- they're falling back on theory and saying "oh, Gamma is making a silly mistake and it's definitely like wrong but it's also town by the way soo it's all fine."

And then you have like a pithy vote on Dunn and then suddenly "oh I actually like Dunn... because Gamma said some good stuff about Dunn. But also I don't know if Gamma's really doing the towniest of things (AND THIS IS SAID RIGHT AFTER SAYING I THINK GAMMA HAS A TOWNY MINDSET FOR MISTAKE-MAKING BTW) so maybe I shouldn't follow but oh well let's just not vote Dunn anymore and look at Meuh, isn't she super scummy look at all these things, let's just move my vote onto Meuh instead."

lmao you aren't even reading my posts at this point you're just throwing everything out to try to get something

i didn't say that i liked dunn bc of things gamma said. i said that i liked dunn because he made good points about gamma being scummy and that made me reconsider my read on both dunn and gamma

[fireisredsir]

Like to me it's Very Goofy to think that a team I'm on throws away the entire idea that Gamma is the deepwolf we've been propping up on a night kill like that, knowing what the most likely outcome was. It screws me over and removes like, most factors that were keeping me alive this entire time.

this is easy for you to say in hindsight like "this was the wrong kill to make!!" but you can't have known what RR was going to do. RR basically said he was sheeping gorilla, and if he was true to that, then gorilla's path was a winning path for you. he would flip meuh, shoot you, and then the final lim based on gorilla's plan would be me

like you can say all you want that RR was never shooting you but there just isn't evidence of that in the thread so your scumteam wouldn't actually have any way of knowing that

Please explain the benefits of killing R+R.

If R+R shoots me our "deepwolf" is alive.

If R+R shoots Gamma I've gotten rid of the one person protecting me AND my deepwolf... for what, exactly?

you really need me to explain the benefits of killing a conftown before elo? RR is smart enough to know that if he survives to elo AS CONFTOWN SINCE D2 then he's there bc he is useful to scum. you cannot seriously be pretending like you don't know this, thats ridiculous

[fireisredsir]

Like this entire game you've found reasons to townread Gamma and Dunn and you make the token efforts to "reconsider" them and pretend you're trying to solve them. And then you just end up going somewhere else entirely after it's all said and done and oh no, town's dead.

Like Jesus when have you seriously tried, in any capacity, to wagon out mafia this game?

When have you not sat on someone for a bit and just jumped off to something else?

i encouraged kovu to start the marci wagon. i actually started interrogating marci in the first place on early d1 and started most of the suspicion on her

ive also been pushing for your lim most of this game except for yesterday where i thought it was meuh+gamma, so that's one! going into d3 i was on dunn/fey as looking the most paired and i stopped people from just speedwagoning cakez bc i wasn't sure on that being scum

like ik ive made mistakes and haven't played great this game, otherwise i wouldn't still be here for you to try to mislim, but i think my thought process is still clear and towny even if i ended up being wrong a lot

[fireisredsir]

I will not argue that the slot is incapable of re-evaluating but by everything said at that point, the idea that R+R would reconsider on me, specifically, is lower than it is on another player. They would do so, yes, but reaching a different conclusion with a now-dead Gamma weighs it far more in my favor.

based on what RR had said in thread to that point, he had wanted to follow the gorilla plan. which, again, would be winning for you

[fireisredsir]

You've been pushing for me like, most of the game but never make a meaningful effort. You never even vote me -- the like what, two times you vote scum? You almost immediately find a reason to jump off despite your suspicions. They vanish. They become dull in the face of shinier choices.

this doesn't really make sense as a response btw bc if im scum then you're town. but here you're treating my lack of push on you, scum, as reason for me not being town and not pushing scum

[fireisredsir]

Actually, I realistically don't care anymore. Rhyme & Reason's play has been genuinely pathetic and I want them to lose this game. I won't selfvote because then I'll get yelled at for gamethrowing, but realistically their play should be seen as the single biggest determinant factor in this town loss. It's not about being wrong, of course - everyone is going to be wrong at points in a game of mafia and plenty of people have been wrong. It's the fact that as confirmed town, they and Bell have been completely gutless and spineless, utterly inept and unwilling to take charge or engage substantively. It is genuinely infuriating and the most absurdly poor play imaginable. Make no mistake, they are the single biggest catalysts of a loss here.

So go ahead and vote me.

I will be flipped, and I will reveal as town, and then I will be MORE confirmed town than either of them. (I don't think it's likely that either of them have been falsely cleared by bastard shenanigans or a godfather role. But the only way to be 100% sure is when someone is dead and revealed by the moderator). After that, you should listen to

ME

, and not them, because their cowardly ineptitude has allowed this game to to reach a horrible state. They cannot and should not be trusted to make correct decisions. They have proven themselves incapable of doing so.

You will do the following:

Invictus Dunnstral.

I have had one scumread since the start of day 2. The game has repeatedly refused to kill him, while he has continued to do nothing but reactively accuse those who suspect him. It completely pathetic if you allow yourselves to lose to someone who has done as little as he has. He is flamingly obvious scum.

Kill Meuh, then Fey.

The order realistically doesn't matter here, you can do it the other way around, but the spiteful side of me wants Meuh shoved over during the day because I think she's pushing absolute bullshit right now.

That

should

net you at least 2/3 scum, if not the entire team. If not, you were pretty much always going to lose this game.

Depends on flips:

If Fey is somehow town -> kill gammagooey.

His protection of Meuh and attempts to un-align her and Dunnstral while pushing Fey as an elim have obvious scum motivation.

If Meuh is somehow town -> kill fire.

His attempt to divert the elim to her today is an obvious setup to get me invictus'd tonight and win the game outright for scum. Gammagooey is never scum with a Dunn/Fey team.


I think this is a reasonable and logical path forward. It should be enough to win the game in spite of the play of the clears, as long as they have the sense to actually LISTEN to what other people are saying in this game for once.

Dunn, vote gorilla if you’re still around

Meuh, put your vote back on gorilla

Kovu and Bell will vote gorilla once they get here.

There’s jackshit to read Gorilla as town from, my townreads have been overwhelmingly correct from early game which makes me want to go back to my stronger earlier reads which was that Gorilla!scum is a thing, the claim was the only clearing thing but the repeated hard dips into AtE and crying is doing nothing for me

If I’m wrong, fine, we can sheep Gorilla. But so far the “vote the scummy slot that didn’t do much” approach has been awful given that Cakez and Enchant were both town and so I think scum have had a stronger influence than it appears — who has been pushing for that type of policy lim most strongly? Gorilla

And I think there’s a major disconnect between the words and the actions e.g. trying to leave a winning blueprint while simultaneously going on about how he wants our slot to lose

~Rhyme

Okay we kill meuh

Bell had her in his solve (also thinks it’s gamma)

Gorilla said meuh next

After that idk, I still think gamma>fey but Fey was in the same section of my early reads as dunn so quite possibly I’m just wrong?

VOTE: meuh

my plan is still just to sheep Gorilla and Bell and kill meuh

~Rhyme

[fireisredsir]

You come into today with the silly gotchas, write up like a literal narrative that you somehow couldn't see all game despite also apparently being right and pushing the right things and protecting the town, blah blah blah. It takes me physically confirming myself before somehow you open your eyes to whatever's been happening while ALSO spending thousands of posts solving with someone, which is a luxury in this game that you put to waste.

i think you seriously underestimate the amount of solving we did do in the hood lol

a lot of that was stuff we had already talked about and thought about. i just wasn't able to put all of the pieces together until it was in front of me, and yea, that's my bad for not being able to find the solve until it's confirmed for me, but treating it as if me now understanding your plan is so incomprehensible to you is just ????

[fireisredsir]

You've been pushing for me like, most of the game but never make a meaningful effort. You never even vote me -- the like what, two times you vote scum? You almost immediately find a reason to jump off despite your suspicions. They vanish. They become dull in the face of shinier choices.

this doesn't really make sense as a response btw bc if im scum then you're town. but here you're treating my lack of push on you, scum, as reason for me not being town and not pushing scum

...???????

I'm literally saying that you're only being ""right"" now on me as a gotcha rather as anything that actually matters. You're going "oh look at me, I was right back then, darn".

In a world where I'm scum and you're town you've decided to not try harder to kill me for... some reason? Didn't even vote me?

Which doesn't make sense for town you.

my thought process and progressions are clear in both the thread and the hood and i think they speak for themselves here

and speaking of that you've still ignored how your progression on gamma is paper thin and how you spend d3 and d4 preflipping him and pushing his "partners" despite never really even explaining why you got so convinced he was scum, or ever trying to get anyone else to vote there. it's all just distancing

[fireisredsir]

aaaaa

flavor was super cool the whole game, ty for the modding prism!

i had a ton of fun this game altho it was also v stressful at times and there were multiple points where i just wanted to quit. i came in really wanting to win and fight as hard as i could to do so tho and im glad we barely pulled it out in the end. scumteam was excellent and everyone complemented each other nicely, we were able to each fill different positions in the game due to playstyle and it was super satisfying when it was working. all of you are great!!

it was also just a fun plist to play with in general, and also i think it was super cool that we had no replacements, makes the game feel pure and clean

and kovu... im sorry!! the hood was so much fun tho and you constantly kept me on my toes and made the game super challenging, it def was not just a clean pocket at all, you played well and i was sure we lost as soon as gamma flipped. i hope u don't feel too betrayed <3

[fireisredsir]

ty :>

ive said this a couple places but i was p sad that all the people i put work into getting them to townread me went and got shot by town... i wanted to endgame with datisi, vp, luke, etc

also, i may have been the last one alive, but in the end really it was the rest of the team who won the game. tracking through kovu's progression on the final day, the point that ended up convincing her was that she found the flipped scum's posts towards me as looking not partnered. so major credit to them, their posts towards me were def stronger than my posts towards them. ik dunn had planned looking like partners with fey and that helped a ton, and gamma was good at talking to me as if i wasn't a partner as well

ended up being pretty lucky that it worked out that way, since i was never planning to be the last one alive

[fireisredsir]

Were you purposefully talking more about meta, because I town read you for the amount of meta work you were doing in a prior game?

Or do you think you would play scum that way even if you were not specifically trying to pocket me?

specifically the whole doing meta without making a show of it but having the results come up later, yea, i prob wouldn't have bothered to follow that specific pattern otherwise. and suspecting you in a similar way/for similar reasons, which i was planning to eventually realize but never got a chance to

[fireisredsir]

This game should probably be filed under “looking for associatives with good scum players is a bad idea”

we spent so long working on trying to make it so meuh was the most likely gamma partner and that i was paired with fey so that after meuh flips fey would be a more likely shot than gamma

ignoring the associatives and just shooting gamma amyway even after the meuh flip killed that plan, so props for that