Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[copper223]

Yo guys, let's have a fun game!

VOTE: Epic Warrior

[copper223]

@Cabd
Do you have meta of yourself as an IC in a newbie game?

I scrolled back to 14xx and only found you replacing in or modding, I was checking to see if it is usual for you to say the game should start with a RVS but then skip it by giving what some may consider a scumtell as a reason for voting, which means the vote is not random.

Also an example of you using the same reason to start your RVS would be fine if you have it, regardless of the game.

[copper223]

@Singersinger

he said the game "usually" starts with RVS, not that it should.

Fair enough, this distinction may or may not be meaningful depending on how Cabd replies.

[copper223]

@++--
The best way to find out is ask him directly and speculate later, if we want to.

[copper223]

@Paul

I wouldn't say "last to confirm" was particularly weak but more the "easy option" for a random vote!!

Why do you consider that option in particular, assuming he chose it as a method to randomize and not because he believes it may be a scumtell, to be "the easy option"? For instance I picked the first name on the list.

@++--

I don't really see how that, if, indeed was a random vote, is any different from basically any other random vote. But, so far, this is only a speculation without Cabd's answer, just as copper223 said.

Because Cabd said so himself:

Last to confirm, therefore

most likely

, in a blind sense,

to be scum.

@Cabd
Have fun then!

[copper223]

I agree ++--, so it looks to me like ++-- is thinker and Paul is a spontaneous player, reads on them should be developped according to these baselines.

[copper223]

@Paul
That's probably fairly accurate.

What was your impression of Singer saying I had a strong start but might be trying to trap Cabd because I asked him for a fairly specific meta?

[copper223]

@++--
It's never to soon to give a read if you think you have one, especially if you can motivate it. Townie points from me for being the first to give one with a reasonable explaination. I'd say you also look pretty townie from your early posting.

@Eric
Is it natural to try to lead as town?

[copper223]

@Choof
man these attention seekers ... so you are a friend of HI's?

I agree with you that it's a personality trait, I'd like to know what Epic Warrior thinks about it.

[copper223]

Lol

[copper223]

@Epic Warrior
There is no clear right or wrong in mafia and that's why it's fun, play as you feel like and try to win based on your wincon.
If you want hints on what some experienced players think is a good way to play check the wiki: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Main_Page or ask Cabd about theory.

I have a problem with your read because in order for me to try not to lead so that I can look town, I would have to know or believe that amongs others ++-- thinks that being helpful but not leading is a town tell, which I do not know, so where does that assumption come from?

Does it look like I am being super cautious not to lead?

You also gave that read on me but are now using the third person so you likely did not notice who you were referring to, which I also find strange from a townie perspective.

Finally you just "played the newbie card" twice in a row in your posts, implying that if we find something scummy, it's probably cause you are new, this is something that some new players try to do when they roll scum.

So you're my first mild scumread for today.

[copper223]

@Epic Warrior
No probs .

For me the best way to be town is to look for scum, I don't really care (or try not to because sometimes you are just biased and you don't know it) about how others read me per se, only how that may be indicative of their alignment is relevant. If you get scum lynched, everyone is going to call you town after all .

I see you don't like the term read, you can call it comment if you like, but any statement about a player's alignment is generally a read, in this case you were arguing with ++-- that his early town read of me was premature, since I could be faking a certain behavior to look town, you are implying he should have a null read on me at this stage of the game.

I would consider it WIFOM (see wiki for the definition) if you were to say you would not do that as scum and probably ignore it.

The fact you used "he" may be scummy because it a potential indicator that you are not really trying to figure out my alignment, if I thought player x might be faking it to look town, I would remember that about him, instead you made the comment and then did not connect it to me when I asked you about it.

[copper223]

Waiting for developments before commenting.

[copper223]

@Singer
Yep, I have to ISO you because if you are really good there's a pretty good chance of you being scum here.

Choof's play is likely town, there is no reason as mafia to go around naked screaming lynch me as he did, unfortunately the fish he got are the two players that might genuinely believe he is scum, so the bait did not work. If I had to guess they are all town.

I was waiting for Cabd to follow up because if an IC jumps on this train he is ver likely scum, and to see what you would do after calling what is happening interesting, because I'm trying to understand if you are also waiting for people to jump on it to call them scum or if you are trying to break it up as soon as possible before a maybe less experienced partner gets caught in the bait.

[copper223]

Is town_Singer more likely to a) pick up on your play and keep quiet about it to see if someone jumps on the wagon or b) is she going to be oblivious about it and continue to scumhunt, if a) then her behavior here is more scum indicative, if b) towny.

[copper223]

I'd say it has more to do with Singer's probe than me wanting to rush matters.

Not fond of Cabd tbh because 73 is designed to make me think he is town while not really giving a read on my alignment.

[copper223]

@Epic
Cabd? If he did jump probably, not doing so would be slightly townie but too little time passed and his probing post could be read either way.

Because figuring out alignments is the objective of the game.

[copper223]

fair enough, I'll check that out.

[copper223]

@Singer

I'd like you to elaborate on this. What makes you think this is the way to develop reads on them, and have you been able to do so?

I think it's important to adapt your reads to the players, especially in a newbie game, so knowing if someone is more likely to just say the first thing that comes to mind or to ponder about hidden motives behind every sentence is a useful bit of information to know about. Yes, based on both behaviors I have a decent town read on both for D1.

++-- went on Choof for what I can see as good reasons coming from a new player and was annoyed by me "spoiling the plan" afterwards which I both consider town tells for him, his play looks consistent from the start of the game.

Paul joining the wagon and seeming genuine when writing also give me a town read, my town read on ++-- is stronger than on Paul.

I have no idea what you're referring to here.

I'm pretty town.

What do you think of Choof?

[copper223]

@++--

However, at the very same time, EXACTLY by pointing out what you waited for, you ruined the whole point of waiting, didn't you? I understand that you were specifically asked about what are you waiting for, but, at the same time, maybe you could've said it with less details?

It's possible, it gave me 3 early town reads so that's not a bad start, also interacting with Cabd forced or resulted in a read he gave on me which is not bad info, I can still examine Singer based on how she replies. You could have also thought about why Choof was painting himself as scum more, no? It's useless to second guess the play of others, unless you think what I did was scum motivated?

Okay, I get that you're basically trying to construct baits

Why are you still voting for him then?

[copper223]

@Epic

Let me rephrase my question. Why would you expect him to give you a read? i.e., why would he tell you what his read was on you?

What reason would town_Cabd have to hide his read of me? Of course I expect him to give a read on me when he is discussing something alignment indicative, it sounded like he agrees with me about Choof and he was also waiting to see what would happen, so I expected him to town read me.However he then gave a very ambiguous read about me reminding of himself when he was new, which as mafia you can always WIFOM out of by saying I reminded him of his mafia games, now that he gave a specific game where he is town, and that he told me these kind of reads are playstyle specific for him (which I still have to check, busy with work yesterday) I don't have problems with him.

Couldn't she scumhunt by seeing who jumps on the wagon?

That's one of the cases I mention.

[copper223]

@Singer

What do you think of Choof?

[copper223]

@Singer

Oh, um, I'd be willing to vote choof. Kind of seems like a goofy newb who doesn't know how to play scum.

Do you really think so Singer? To me it doesn't look like that at all.

Case 1: he is baiting a wagon on himself to get reads as town, this is the version I support:

Baiting

I urge paul to vote for ++--, and for ++-- to vote for me. Not only will this put a vote on everyone, but it will also appease those with OCD

oh whoops, disregard ladies and gentlemen

so who has access to quicktopics

I'm thinking that you're thinking far too hard about the consequences of the thinker (paul) thinking about the other thinking thinker (copper).

At least I think I got that right, someone pls confirm

"very worst reaction" to a "really bad vote"
nothing to see here folks, just two baddies busing themselves

To me those are not statements made by akward mafia, those are delibarete baits to see if someone is going to jump on his wagon. Contrast this with when he is being serious or explaining/hinting at his play.

Serious mode / hinting at what he is doing

It is natural if being a leader comes naturally. Leadership isn't inherently "town" nor "scum," just like being quiet isn't inherently "town" or "scum."

having said this, I have yet to play with any of you so I apologize in advance for my violent, high-impact posting style that I've brought over from the other site I play on that uses 72-hour day phases

Was wondering when we'd get one of these votes. If you don't mind, I'm going to paraphrase this so people can read it later in the game.

I mean, if we want to start the day off with mediocre, surface level reads, by all means let's do it. I am a veritable master of mediocre.

Those are not the posts of someone being goofy as scum, he is explaining that he is used to play 72-hour games where you don't have the time to slowly get your "mediocre" town reads, so he is going with a "high impact" play to see "when he'd get one of those (votes)" which he will then "paraphrase so people can read it later". To me this looks like town play.

The other interpretation is he is doing this as mafia to WIFOM town, hey mafia would never bait a wagon on themselves and call attention like he is doing right?, I like Jason for pointing it out in 107 to ++-- and still waiting for ++--'s reply.

[copper223]

I also dislike Mallowgeno for his opening post which looks

pretty opportunistic

, just after ++-- gets some well deserved heat from Jason he makes a post with questionable scumtells on him that look pretty forced to me (if he even considers them scumtells since he doesn't explicitly say) and concludes with "interesting" which I have found scum to use much more often than town because it hints at much without really saying anything. It looks like he is getting ready to join the wagon if it gets rolling.

Regarding Epic Warrior, you either have a bad case of "OMGUS scumhunting" or those questions are designed to make the person who voted for you look bad, your interaction with me:

So either way you're saying he's scum?

Theory question: Why would you expect him to give a read?

Let me rephrase my question. Why would you expect him to give you a read? i.e., why would he tell you what his read was on you?

Couldn't she scumhunt by seeing who jumps on the wagon?

with Jason:

How do you know I'm not scumhunting?

Those look like loaded questions so you can try to call us scum more than alignment probes, and the fact that you are only interacting with people voting for you is why I think you are not scumhunting.

[copper223]

Can you read the thread before posting stuff?

[copper223]

1. People are addressing you
2. The answer to your second question is already in the thread.

[copper223]

117 pings. A lot.

Same. Any follow up on that, or just a fun fact?

I'd like choof and cooper to remark on what they think and why first, and see if it aligns with the reasons I'm seeing here.

[copper223]

What you've said so far makes sense to me, I wouldn't mind a readlist, or reads on the players you have them on, though.

[copper223]

@Singer
Don't give your interpretation of how to play as gospell in a newbie game, to counteract what I personally believe is complete BS:
Readlists are amazing tools to scumhunt because scum have to create a track record of who they are scumreading and who they are townreading during the game, either sheeping, making up reads or giving true information, which highly increases the chances of them slipping up in some way and / or of figuring out who they are based on PoE.

I think you and I are going to have a problem reading each other just based on playstyle clashes.

[copper223]

@Singer

Any comment on my thoughts about 122

The way you present it is again a moot theory point, whether you like it or not is irrelevant if he did it, the questions you should try to answer as town are:
a)was he baiting?
If so is he more likely to be town or mafia for it? If not what is he doing and as which alignment?
b)were there sufficient information for me to deduce he was baiting?
If so is me explaining what he did more town or mafia? If not why did I invent his motive and as which alignment?

@All
Waiting to see what Epic comes up with.

[copper223]

Because I believe he is town, as I already said why does he call attention to himself like he did as mafia? It does not make sense to me. Further as shown by my quotes his posting is different when he is not baiting so it's a deliberate strategy and not goofy/akward behavior as you are suggesting.

[copper223]

FCK ME!!! I typed up this big long thing and then accidently highlighted it all and pressed space . It's late. I'll do it again tomorrow.

Ok I will reply to what you have written now, cause I don't know if I'll be here tomorrow and so you can incorporate my reply in your follow up.

half the posts in this game are made to make people look bad.

Interesting take.

Still, it's ridiculous to say that those questions were made to make you look ridiculous.

I disagree.

In the Cabd quote you give later there is a possible misunderstanding, because in the second part (after interesting) where you say I suggest they may be mafia buddies, I'm talking to Singer and not Cabd, so as you can see I implied Cabd would look mafia if he jumps on it or town if he didn't, you asking me: is he scum or scum looks like a loaded question. I don't know if you came up with a save or really believe I was adressing Cabd there so I'll have to put this as null.

The other questions you ask don't look like town questions to me, you also fail to answer my return questions after asking yours:
- why is it strange to expect a read when he is discussing something alingment indicative I did or thought?
- what reason could town_Cabd have to hide his read on me?

Well? How is this trying to make you look bad? It is a perfectly reasonable question.

Not if I already answered, I already said she might have been town for also waiting to see what choof did, so why are you questioning me about it again?

Your posting is indicative of someone looking for points to debate with me, regardless of these points being alignment indicative, instead of looking for scum, and that is more likely a scum motive (trying to stay alive to discredit my case on you) rather than town (finding mafia).

Not saying I'm all-in on singer, but this is a really good point.

And? Why is she making what you believe to be a good point a reason to go all-in on her?

Regarding Jason's accusation:

Seems to me like his just

trying to contribute without actually contributing anything

, he hasn't actually scum hunted and has rather just sat on the side lines prodding people,

in ways that actually make him look like his active

, without actually doing anything.

The difference between you and everyone else not contributing according to him is you are trying to give the impression you are without really doing so.

b) why no one else is voting Epic Warrior considering how he is playing.

2. Epic Warrior makes an easy wagon Refer to the second quote please, point (b).

Pretty big misrep here, he is saying you are playing scummy so more people should vote you, not that your wagon is easy. If Jason and I are the scumteam as you seem to believe, then the easy lynches now would probably be Choof and ++-- as there are more people openly stating they have a scumread there.

tl;dr
So basically you are saying the scumteam are both players voting for you, the reasons you give for why we are scum is mainly that we are going on you as the easy wagon. You are objectively not the easy wagon for the scumteam you postulate, so it's more likely you are trying to survive here by pushing scum back on those accusing you rather than genuinely believing we are both scum, this is not only shown by the way you are interacting with me but also by the way you misrepped Jason's accusation.

[copper223]

@Singer

I did not get any seriousness or sustenance from those posts at all so that point is invalid with me.

Those posts show a different personality than the one he is using to bait votes on himself, they also explain why he is playing like he is:

- he is used to shorter days where you have to make something happen to get reads rather then let the amount of posts we have to write in our longer days help us find scum
- he implied he was avoiding having to give mediocre surface level reads by baiting.
- he implied he was expecting the ++-- vote, which again argues he is aware of what he is doing.

In short if you think he is scum you have to believe he came into the game with the idea of faking a bait, which I find unlikely, rather than as you are saying because he got caught and is now reacting akwardly.

[copper223]

I won't be fooled by that newbie card bullshit again so you'd all better get on the horse and ride the game you signed up to play. You'll learn as you go. Don't be afraid to get dirty and make mistakes -- ITS GOING TO HAPPEN -- what matters is that you develop a playstyle and have fun trying to catch scum (or trick the town).

Who are you talking to?

[copper223]

Fair enough, Dooku tricked me too for a while.

[copper223]

This is a pretty shameful display from the IC and the SE's.

[copper223]

@++--
It's probably some kind of reaction test. Has your Epic Warrior read stayed the same?

@Paul
If you and Singer are town this game mafia is playing 4v5.

[copper223]

@JW
Being IC is a voluntary position you should take on only if you have the time to do so properly.

This is also true to a lesser degree for SE's, I'm the first to agree RL takes precedence, if you are busy by all means replace out and let someone who can be more active have a go at it.

[copper223]

@Singer
If a player hates your guts and is on the right track you don't need a readlist as scum to figure out if it's time to silence him, the cases I can see where scum would benefit from readlists are in pushing mislynches and if they want to kill universally town read players, but you are ignoring the benefits as well. If scum has to start from early D1 regularly giving reads on every player they are going to trip up, they have to because some of those reads will have to be made knowingly on townies and will have to be changed later when they don't fit the scum agenda anymore, and that's where you catch them.

Regardless you saying read(lists) are bad in a newbie game has already caused Paul to decide it's better not to give his reads, a very unwelcome development for me.

[copper223]

@Singer
Yes and if their mislynch dies or gets lynched they have to pick a new one, not only that, having more info than the rest of us is going to show long term if you force them to make statements where having these information is relevant, they are biased in that they know our alignment and have to selectively chose what to include and what to hide in their reads, especially in a newbie game, if scum are new players not used to do this I see no better way to catch them, and if we don't find any readlist suspicious that is also a hint that mafia may be hiding ib the more experienced players.

[copper223]

@Singer
Pretty much, I am certainly not going to call you scum for it and I already meta checked you for consistency and it matches, although I am going to disagree with you. My peeve her is I think it is sending the wrong message to newer players, that giving reads in general is bad, which I hope you will join me in saying is not the case at all.

[copper223]

@Cabd
That's a readlist I am willing to call you town for.

[copper223]

@EW
For starters he said he thinks you are scum, which obviuously makes sense to me, secondly being annoyed that nobody was scumhunting him was also something I see as making sense for a townie expecting scum pressure for being absent at the start and wondering what is going on.

Why does it strike you as odd that ai asked him for a readlist, given I've been arguing with Singer about the merits of giving them up to now?

[copper223]

@Cabd
You hit all the relevant points in the game from which I also got my reads on other players, particularly JW and MG, and the Paul read proves you are not sheeping me because based on contribution I may look obv. town to scum but actually looked for these information on your own.

[copper223]

@EW

Is it wrong? No, really, is it?

There is no right or wrong to it, personally I tend to think I make half my posts to try and get in your head, I will say this is more likely to be your state of mind as scum, where you are looking for the poor sod you can mislynch, but it's not a very strong tell as it could also be playstyle.

Who?

Jason

If im not the easy wagon, then why do you seem to think im struggling to survive?

I said it's likely you are trying(=/struggling) to survive, because that's scum's job during the day phase and from your play so far I see two alternatives, you are "OMGUS scumhunting" or you are trying to discredit those pushing on you to stay alive and I think the second is more likely.

[copper223]

@Mallow
I kind of agree with your Singer read, but on the other hand I also see nothing of relevance in the posts you mentioned when voting ++--, are you serious with that case?

@HI
I can't say I have a fixed playstyle, in our previous game I got a gut scumread on you so that affected my early game, here I liked ++--'s intro and think I figured out why Choof tried to paint himself as scummy (because he was baiting a wagon as town) so that's why it probably looks like I was working off my town reads to begin with. I also have a scumread that is not related to the above in Epic which is becoming the main focus of the day for me.

I think we are in a pretty good spot if I did not miss my mark with Choof, unfortunately I think I tend to read you as scummy even when you aren't so I hope if you are town it will be easier to see compared to our last game.

Who are your (tentative I'd imagine) scumreads at the moment?

[copper223]

@Drix
Welcome to the game!

Your catch-up doesn't look too bad at first glance, unfortunately I have some problems with it:

- Why no attention to Cabd, the only player to openly scumread your slot?

- Why do you find Jason scummy for his read on EW but my interaction with EW doesn't register? Is there a difference between EW pre and post 102?

The scumreads you get to, Singer and Mallow, are two of the recently emerging names that people find scummy so I find those reads potentially opportunistic, you did motivate them well though so it's hard to tell.

[copper223]

@HI
I am not mentioning that because after it worked once again with Lolbabe in our last game I find it similar to a cheat and if Drix is town it's unfair to add that to him having to catch-up. Judge him by his own merits.

@Singer
Fair enough, as I said your play looks consistent compared to other games I have seen and scumreading you for your opinions is wrong.

[copper223]

look at me I am so town.

[copper223]

@Drix
Your case, as far as ai understand, is not that the PT comment is in of itself WIFOM, it's that Singer pushed WIFOM into the game, which you then give as scummy (not clear why this is per se scum indicative in the first place but that's anothe point) for saying you shouldn't read her as town for it.

As soon as Singer said she had not read the PT she introduced a WIFOM element:

- Was that a town slip or is she faking a town slip knowing scum have QT's ?

Your interpretation, that Singer telling us afterwards we should't read her as town for it is scummy because it creates WIFOM seems forced to me, at that point the WIFOM exists already so whatever she is going to say, and she was prompted by Cabd instead of it being her own follow up where she might have tried to control the direction of the discussion, is going to be WIFOM on WIFOM, like Singer said how do you reply without landing in WIFOM? The answer is you can't, so you either have to read her first slip as a faketell (which is WIFOM on your part) or consider the follow up as null.

Hope the above is not too convoluted.

[copper223]

@Drixx

The reason I view the explanation post as WIFOM is because I have read it assuming 100% scum and assuming 100% town and under both assumptions I still can't decide if the whole thing was an accident followed up by an experienced player trying to make sure the accident didn't unduly influence new players or whether it's a calculated scum move.

That's because it's all based on the initial assumption, did she town slip or did she fake it, nothing she says afterwards can be 100% attributed to town or scum, if she said: definitely, read me as town for it because it was a slip, I'd have the same problem because hey, mafia could easily fake that slip and tell us to read her as town as well, as I explained without giving examples there is no answer here which is meaningful per se, only possible guesses you can make based on how genuine she is and how self serving those statements are.

Her answer:"no don't confirm me as town because this is why the term was fresh in my mind, but as your read would be accurate, um great" is not WIFOM per se, other than the usual WIFOM of every sentence ever written in a game of mafia (is this true or is she BS'ing), it becomes WIFOM just because it relates to the first slip/fake tell she made, so once again I don't find her reply scummy.

@Singer
why do you think Jason is town?

[copper223]

@Drixx

Something actually concerns me about Drixx's declaration that what I did was WIFOM.

I don't actually see what he's referring to. I said, "no don't confirm me as town because this is why the term was fresh in my mind, but as your read would be accurate, um great". What about that is WIFOM?

Her answer:"no don't confirm me as town because this is why the term was fresh in my mind, but as your read would be accurate, um great" is not WIFOM per se, other than the usual WIFOM of every sentence ever written in a game of mafia (is this true or is she BS'ing), it becomes WIFOM just because it relates to the first slip/fake tell she made, so once again I don't find her reply scummy.

Singer's follow up is not WIFOM per se, I think she simply did not think about her initial statement as the WIFOM source, nor would she directly because your case is that her follow up (what she said about us not reading her as town because of that although it would be the right read) is WIFOM, which alone it is not.

@Singer
Is your supposed PT slip WIFOM?

[copper223]

@Singer
I'm not asking you to make a qualitative statement about it (choosing one side of the WIFOM), I do however think that Drixx is right about it being WIFOM from our pov., we don't know why you said that after all.

Is this conversation, with Mina I imagine, pubblic?

[copper223]

VOTE: Drixx
I agree with you two, Singer and HI, I also think that EW defence from Drixx where he called Jason scummy for going on him makes EW a likely partner.

L-2

[copper223]

@HI
I checked the thread after you two posted, do you find my vote scummy?

@Drixx
You have a point about not unvoting and your reasoning looks reasonable at first glance, but I agree with HI that you are making a scumtell out of a nulltell, your SS and HI scumteam approach also seems pretty forced and Singer's point about you going on Jason because you don't think his play is correct rather than scummy is well taken.

At the end of the day it boils down to this with you, I think we are not too different in the way we play mafia and more than once I thought, if I were mafia Drixx this is what I'd reply with, and you did the same.As an example, HI calls you tame for backing down, you slam him down, that's classic reverse psichology, you are trying to feed him the emotion he demanded at the start and the lack of which made him call you scum.

[copper223]

@Singer
Why are you deadset on Mallow? That's basically a policy lynch.

He said he was busy with finals and now sick so hasn't contributed anything of note other than you seem to be playing mafia sided as town, if that's his strat as scum he is going to run out of excuses real soon.

@Jason
Paul's unvote after I mentioned Choof might have been baiting a wagon as town did look self conscious as Cabd mentioned and as far as Drixx goes once you cut through all the words behind his statements he voted Singer for what I consider a nulltell when various people were starting to pressure her, he FoSed you for going on Epic with what I consider a valid reason, and then OMGUSed HI forcing a scumteam which is very unlikely. His reads also happened to be the best you could give as scum at the time he gave them, he is right that correlation =/ causation but tells stack up.

The only other player I'd support a lynch on today is Epic Warrior, I probably would vote 1 or 2 more if that was the only choice compared to a NL but I'd not be happy about anyone else.

@++--
Your contribution has fallen off dramatically and I don't like it.

[copper223]

@++--

While copper indeed seems to be the best at this, I'm pretty sure I disagree with this statement, I feel like that (as of this point, I haven't read much of the later comments, I'll fix this statement if it turns out to have changed later), I'm not being properly evaluated by anyone - neither those who scumread me, nor those who townread me.

What does this mean?

@Singer
Is your supposed PT slip WIFOM?

If it was WIFOM, would singer answer "yes, it is"? No, I doubt it.

Why do you doubt it? I would answer yes immediately as scum, then say it was not my fault because I was speaking about PT's with Mina so that's what came out and you can interpret it as you will. There is really very little downside for mafia not to be honest in answering that so it was more a question about Singer's understanding and belief about what WIFOM is, so that I could re-read her prior statements with more info on how she (says) she thinks. The fact Singer said she made a conscious effort to say PT is totally not the answer I would expect but I don't really know if it's significant or if we have enough information to actually get something from it.

In general I think you are being too narrow minded, ask and then evaluate the reaction, rather than decide beforehand what they did without asking.

HI just basically accused me of chainsaw defending Cabd, so, therefore, is very much aware of it. Why would HI, in this case, still chainsaw defend SS?

This is a good point and I don't like Drixx's reply to it that you made it up because he definitely did say HI and Singer are possible partners.

VOTE: Drixx
I agree with you two, Singer and HI, I also think that EW defence from Drixx where he called Jason scummy for going on him makes EW a likely partner.

L-2

So far, you've been consistent, but I don't understand this vote. So far, you've been quite sure about EW being a mafia, and now you're lynching Drixx for being EW's potential partner?

I explained the reasons why I'm scumreading Drixx as well, the potential partner comment is something to keep in mind only if we decide to lynch Drixx and he flips scum.

I am currently scumreading Drixx because Paul's unvote on the Choof wagon looks self conscious, because Drix's scumreads in his entry post on Singer and Mallow look opportunistic, because I did not understand nor agree with his poke on Jason in the same post and I don't like him 1/4 of it to defend a player I consider possible scum, and because his later interaction with Singer and HI looks forced. I will further add I'm not a big fan of the AtE he made about this being his first game and not wanting to be lynched after putting effort into it (paraphrasing here), I'll praise you at the end of the game for your logical posts and the fact you were willing to get in there from the get go and apologize if I misread you, but this game is about trying to lynch scum, not win most friendly christmas award 2014.

This said it looks like you are getting ready to jump on the Drixx wagon and this pings me because usually as town I don't feel much need to justify myself and I just join a lynch at the end if mine doesn't seem to be working.

[copper223]

VOTE: Epic Warrior [/post]
Those posts are complete fluff and once again you are making no effort to engage the rest of town, just the player scumreading you.

I think this is the best lynch for today.

[copper223]

VOTE: Epic Warrior

[copper223]

@Mallow

I would like to see some substantive analysis from Mal. The timing of coming back to the game seems incredibly co-incidental. It stretches credulity, IMO.

This is a good point from Drixx, are you still sick Mallow?

[copper223]

[copper223]

@++--
The fact you seemed ready to jump on the Drixx wagon when you previously had a town read on his slot could be opportunistic scum making a move, it's similar to what HI said to me about my Drixx vote, alone and without flips it doesn't mean much and I still have a pretty strong townread on you, but having been wrong in the past (often ) I leave myself these warnings for when/if I need to re-read the thread and see what I missed.

@Drixx
What's your read on EW now?

[copper223]

@HI
FFS you are destroying my town read on the slot.

@Cabd
You are presenting a false dilemma tbh, there is no adavantage to get a L-1 claim compared to wait for a player to state intent, so the second should always be preferred.

@Drixx
From my recent 6/7 games, site meta is to put a player at L-1, wait for someone to declare intent and after he claims lynch if he is VT or form a second wagon if he claims PR. You jumped the gun by claiming early when apparently there wasn't enough support for your lynch, I'd advise against it in the future if you are town. As to your complaint about PR's not fakeclaimig VT, thanks god I hate that crap, you can get away by claiming general PR and I have done so in 2 previous newbie games (1543 and 1551), but you have to be able to explain yourself as to why you are doing so convincingly.

@Jason
I assume scum know how to read. I did not like your post about lynching EW because he is useless, is he a policy lynch for you now?

@All
if all 4 of you disagree on the EW lynch you should form a counter wagon, that's a good point.

[copper223]

@EW
Why do you think? If you are a PR you don't want to get outed unless you absolutely have to, if you are a vanilla townie and you claim early, like Drixx did, and we don't lynch him, he just helped scum by reducing the lynch pool, unless he is scum himself and the VT claim is fake.

@Jason
I don't care about everyone else, I thought you had him as scum but you now want to lynch him because he is useless? That's not how I, who also think he may be scum, would have accused him, so it doesn't sit well with me.

[copper223]

@JW
I read what you said after, but your first accusation was he is useless, you went as far as comparing him to Mallow based on that, and being useless is neither here or there when deciding who to lynch, in fact if I believed EW to be especially trashy at the game I'd be more forgiving.

@All
Quite the opposite some of EW's posts like the last one about a PR hiding behind a VT claim show that he has a good head when he applies himself so the fact he needs to ask questions that a town aligned player would probably figure out are a scumtell for me, if you are scum claiming late or early makes no difference for instance, you have to first think from a town pov. to understand why that is bad and I can see newbscum missing that.

[copper223]

@EW
You are providing a readlist now that Singer declared intent but wouldn't give one before?

@HI
I don't know WTF gives you the idea that EW is town, where did your early declaration of noob suspicion go? If you think Mallow is scum it seems likely he is with EW after that town read from MG so why the massive resistance to this lynch? Did you ask yourself why EW is not joining you on the MG wagon?

If he flips scum I'd seriously consider you tomorrow, try not to replace out if that's the case.

[copper223]

SO LET'S PLEASE LYNCH MALLOW FIRST KTHX

Like, I've been pretty clear on what I expect/want to happen today. It's pretty telling that mallow has yet to come in and hammer EW, too.

Why? He said he thought EW is town and he doesn't like my interaction with him, after that no wonder he isn't hammering.

[copper223]

He hasn't played the newb card a single time since page two, so my resistance against that is absolutely irrelevant. I feel the case against him is nearly non-existent and the points made could be from a newb-town or newb-scum player and, therefore, are null points. That and he's fucking participating. If he is in fact lynched and is in fact scum, I will completely understand the onslaught tomorrow. But what I don't understand is why everyone is ignoring the slot that is ignoring everyone.

That's what really gets me.

For the first part of the day Mallow said he had finals and was sick, only i. the latest 2 days is he absent without cause.

EW is not participating, I have never seen a newbie ignore every player minus the ones voting for him and prey tell me what the town motivation for this behavior may be? You cannot even argue it is unintentional anymore because I warned him about it when he still had 10 days left to show us what he thought of the rest of the players. Now that he is under hammer threat he isn't even sticking to his guns so it's not principle either

[copper223]

@HI
That's a readlist with 6 nulls, 2 towns, himself and the player who is WKing him, and two wishy washy scumreads. Why is it town?

[copper223]

I felt bad the moment I knew I had to deal with you again, your other game ended with a town win 2 day phase real days after you were replaced with both mafia (2 town reads of yours) quickly lynched. I'm close to a 100% win rate, so I can't be that terrible.

I couldn't make a readlist as unhelpful to town as that one if I tried.

[copper223]

@HI
Oh I agree, in fact the difference why I think I'm decent and you are shitty is I'm willing to consider your pov. and try to hash out who has more valid arguments on his side, instead you have decided in your wisdom EW is town and that's that.

@Singer
If you also really think EW is town I'm down to lynch Mallow instead unless he comes up with the goods.

[copper223]

1. Selective scumhunting, only in the players scumreading him.
2. Lurking when not under pressure (from the Jason switch to Singer till Drixx mentioned he was lurking.)
3. Trying to give town as little information as possible.
4. Being inconsistent and opportunistic with his beliefs, when it did not pay (from a scum pov.) to give reads he was happy not to, now that he has to he gives a read on everyone (sort of).
5. Showing glimpses in his posts he is better than he wants us to believe, that readlist is a product of a very disinterested or weak player that has no clue what is going on as town, but when interacting with me he has more than once come out with reasonably deep observations, like the PR claiming VT or that trap question on Cabd that I was trying to call him scum no matter what, those two personas don't reconcile unless he is trying to hide his ability instead of using it to help town.

[copper223]

@HI
Your case on Mallow is he lurked all day and once it is proven he was on site and did not contribute, that's definitely ironclad compared to the issues I raised with EW...

[copper223]

@Singer
I think if EW is town it's pretty likely that MG is as well, just based on this HI's position makes no sense to me, unless this is a last dirch defence of his scumpartner or HI is once again ignoring logic because he is having a hissy fit.

[copper223]

Mallow gave an unprompted town read on Singer when she was being heavily scumread, he did the same with EW and hinted that he was starting to scumread me and I did not make a case on him, you were saying?

[copper223]

I just finished micro 415 with Gaiden, and he behaved similarly to Mallow (minus making excuses for being lurky) and he was also paranoid about the people pushing and townreading everyone getting massive scumreads at the time, and he was town. Now I personally would read it as scum indicative but some players are just like that.

How am I tunnelling when I at least said I'd be ok with his lynch while you are tunnelling on EW's townread like no other?

[copper223]

I agree with the lurker accusation but you just said he was selectively OMGUS scumhunting more than EW (completely false) and trying to give town even less info (also untrue in my opinion but debatable).

Mallow is also a terrible lynch if he is town because we get fuck all out of his flip, at least with EW we can start to sort out who is more likely scum just based on the 3 players refusing to hammer for so long.

[copper223]

@Singer
Give me a % for how much you think Mallow is scum, roughly.

[copper223]

It will have to by D3 unless he gets replaced, the longer he does it the more it becomes indicative as well, now it could just be unlucky timing although it's becoming less likely already.

[copper223]

I simply roughly calculated how many posts he needed to make just by prod dodging before a read on his content could be attempted and came up with D3, just to show that what you said about his situation not changing is untrue. Whether we lynch correctly or if he even survives till then is besides the point.

[copper223]

@HI
Also your main scumread according to you is a worse offender on some of the points I make on EW, but EW is town? Does not compute.

[copper223]

@Singer
My worry is that Mallow flips town, then we got fuck all out of today. If we lynch him and he flips scum I'll clap and go from there.

My point is, I think EW is more scummy than MG, nothing HI has said, and I just disproved he did any of these things worse other than lurking and even there you could argue that lurking when not under pressure is more scum indicative than lurking all the time, but even if I'm wrong on EW the lynch would give us a lot of information.

So how confident are you on Mallow being scum, 51%, 75%, above 90%?

[copper223]

You should work in PR, your artistry in spinning the situation is pretty exceptional.

So instead of refuting that mallow ever did those thing WORSE (he did), your stance now is that EW can't be town because the points still apply to him?

Bravo. That's logic at its finest.

Lol you admitted yourself you were wrong on 1., 4. and 5. where never on the table, 2. is higly subjective so we can't really say and I just gave you an argument for 3., plus I don't need to refute anything since I think Mallow could well be scum, I'm just more convinced about EW, you however are

townreading

EW so please refute away if you can and I'll happily correct my mistakes.

[copper223]

@Singer
Fair enough, then your vote is right where it should be, I'm 75% myself on EW but I'm 55% on Mallow as well being scum.

[copper223]

You can't even count properly.

[copper223]

@Drixx
Fair enough, I don't like the unjustified resistance behind a player who in my book played really scummy and I still have you as a possible EW teammate as well, let's hope I'm wrong or both lynches were good.

@Mallow

Please claim

[copper223]

@Drixx
Ok I like that aporoach, although you can't hammer EW with just your vote switching.

@Mallow
The claim is not required for now but factor in someone is declaring intent to hammer on you, so you'd better give all you have if you are town.

[copper223]

UNVOTE:
Just to prevent a quick hammer and sack from Mallow if he WK'ed EW as scum and EW is town.

[copper223]

@Drixx
That was my mistake, I thought you had switched wagons, not gone from no vote to Mallow, you can lynch a player by being the 5th vote and that's all that simple majority means (5 out of 9, 4 out of 7 and so on).

[copper223]

So now we are discussing the color of the claim?

@Singer
A bit late to be having second thoughts on something I already mentioned before Mallw actually claimed, don't you think?

[copper223]

Whatever now that he claimed VT without giving anything useful in his posts I see no reason not to go ahead.

VOTE: Mallow Geno

[copper223]

VOTE: EW

for obvious reasons.

[copper223]

Case 1:

both wagons yesterday were town, then if as is most likely in these cases scum separated themselves, we have 1 scum between {Copper, Drixx, HI, SS} and 1 between {++--, Copper, Jason}

- I know my alignment and made it pretty obvious so forget about Copper.

- Both Jason and ++-- are unlikely partners for SS given they both FoSed/voted her and called her scummy, so in this world she is not likely scum.

- I had both a town read on Choof and now on HI, so this leaves Drixx and one of {++--, Jason} as a team, but if Drixx is scum why did he WK EW?

Because most likely case 2: EW is scum, is the real world, this also implicates Drixx as his partner.

The NK points to a newbie team because they are the most likely to kill the IC just given he is an IC, in this case there is the added benefit that Cabd would have been scumreading both of them, moreover killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing myself so the theory Cabd was killed to frame Drixx and EW should be discounted or is at least very unlikely.

There exists a world were my reads this game are garbage and most likely SS or Jason saw something in Cabd's play that triggered the role kill, but I'm not going there without proof when up to now this game has made sense for me.

[copper223]

@HI
I think Drixx and EW are tied, and in the eventuality I'm wrong a flip on EW is much more useful than a flip on Drixx because of the wagons yesterday.

[copper223]

@Drixx
That post is simply ridiculous, make a tl;dr of your objections.

[copper223]

@HI
It makes sense does it? FoS HI.

@Drixx
I will read it all and reply point by point tomorrow, from what I read your so called contradictions are based on lack of understanding of the premise.

[copper223]

@Drixx
Let's go one segment at a time

Firstly, you started out with "both wagons", even though there were three. Cabd made a call for someone to put a 4th vote on me and L-1 me to force a claim, to which I responded with posts which folks discussed and then the wagon moved on to other people. Furthermore, you have contradicted yourself when you suggest that "both wagons" are town, since you later suggest a scum team of me and EW, and EW was one of the the wagons you are referencing. Finally, your basic premise fails because you are doing a sort based upon info that you can't possibly have (unless you are one of the scum?), and even then, your premise would fail because you conveniently put yourself on both of those wagons (was this intentional to set up this post today?).

You don't understand (or pretend not to) how to do a vote count analysis, you have to pick the most indicative game situation and analyse the votes at that point in time, here the most indicative moment we have is the flip on Mallow, so obviously you have to consider his wagon and the alternative on EW, this is by far the most revealing point of the game as far as votes are concerned, taking into account previous wagons without flips where people were voting for third parties, voting for you or not not voting at all is only going to result in a big mess. If you really don't understand what VCA is about, see Mastin's guides: Mastin's Gudie to VCA

I have not contradicted myself, I have built a scenario with two cases, case 1: both wagons are on town, case 2: mallow was a town wagon and EW is a scum wagon.

I put myself in both wagons because I was on both wagons.

My basic premise is based on probabilities of how scum behave, if a buddy is going to get lynched in this setup you are very likely to try to support him tooth and nail, so in this case both scum are likely going to be on the Mallow wagon, if you have the luxury of choosing between two townies you are likely to split as a scumteam so you will leave as little associative tells as possible, in this case scum are likely to be on opposite wagons; i.e. one on the Mallow wagon and one on the EW wagon.

[copper223]

@Drixx

Secondly, you did a huge LAMIST and told the game to dismiss "copper" (speaking of yourself in the third person ... interesting) from their thoughts on scum. So far, anyone following along and accepting your premises seems right on track towards EW and me, just as you intend.

My analysis of the game is based on the knowledge I have of my alignment, it is of course part of the premise to how I reach my conclusions, here I state it so people who disagree with me being town can just stop and say, hey I think Copper is scum so I don't care about the follow up. If there is such a player kindly come forwards and tell me why you think I'm scum.

[copper223]

@Drixx

You pull out ++-- and Jason, without explaining why, and suggest they are unlikely to be partners with SS (again, without explaining why SS) because they FoS'd her and called her scum (Which I did, as well, btw). While the entire thought process of this point seems indecipherable, you end by clearing SS in the most indecipherable part of all. In what world do scum partners never FoS each other and take opportunity to distance when it appears town to do so?

I already explained why, we are now examining the hypothetical case where EW was a town wagon, given the split theory I explained in the first post, this implies with a decent degree of probability that we have 1 scum on the Mallow wagon and 1 scum on EW wagon.

The way Jason and ++-- respectively went after Singer at different times where there was really little to be gained from a bus leads me to believe they are not likely partners, Cabd was town and I know my alignment, so Singer has no likely partner on the EW wagon she could split from, that's why I clear her. This is obviously more speculative than what I've written before so if you disagree with the above show me why Singer and ++-- or Jason seem like likely partners to you.

[copper223]

@Drixx

Fourthly, you tell us you had a town read on Choof (although he was behaving quite oddly) and on HI (despite your fight near the end of day 1 ... that couldn't have been staged could it?) and therefore the scum must be among the people you haven't conveniently declared town, although you single me out for the "I'm sure!" honors by phrasing it "Drixx and one of..." (though you didn't make any case against me in the post), but we see why EW got left out (and the entire reason for this poorly reasoned mess of assumptions that have no real basis) in what comes next. "but if Drixx is scum, why did he WK EW?"

There is no singling out, you are the remaining unnacounted member (if you agree with the premises) on the Mallow wagon which based on the split theory makes you a likely scum candidate, once again my read on HI is just a read, is it right, is it wrong, I don't know. The important thing is you can follow my logic and form your own conclusions (for those of you who are town).

I already gave my take on Choof, he was baiting a wagon on himself and that doesn't look scummy to me (unless you are an awful player, which he gave some indication of not being in his ISO), as for HI, I have a problem there because I consider him so bad he may definitely be a blind spot for me, he'd get away with stuff I'd normally be shitting bricks on other players because "he is just HI", so idk, my best guess is he is still town atm.

Since you are the only one left based on the 2 town wagons assumptions and my reads on the players on both wagons, why did you WK EW so hard (we have a genuine conftown stating this in Cabd so this is not only my impression)? Either you just wanted the town cred and you are scum with one of ++-- or Jason, which I personally find unlikely, or the starting premise that EW was a town wagon was wrong.

[copper223]

I appreciate that link. What I missed was the Case 1 / Case 2 thing, so your entire first part of your post completely didn't make sense. Take away my criticism of you assuming both wagons were town, but you are still relying on info you don't actually have: namely, where the scum voted. You can use probability and statistics all you want, but they only work on a meta-scale. Law of large numbers and all. You can't actually draw a firm conclusion on a case by case basis, unfortunately.

You can draw conclusions because in most cases that's how it works, this is based on human nature and psychology, sometimes you get outliers or players that consciously play against these tells that's true, like any other tell in mafia nothing is perfect, it's just one way to look at the game.

[copper223]

@Drixx

My gosh, now that we've swallowed all these poorly (or not at all) reasoned premises from you, we can't help but swallow the fish whole. EW just must be scum, and Drixx must have been his partner saving him. Convenient that you suggest that I "White Knighted" EW when I said I'd hammer him and had a leaning scum read on him, but I thought Mal was a better lynch because he didn't seem to be lurking for any reason other than avoiding putting much there for us to read (while a couple other people lurked strategically yesterday; I didn't point them out because I thought it was a bad idea to point out potential PR targets to scum). That's not White Knighting. What HI did for EW was a WK.

I can see what you mean, let's not call it WK'ing then, you found a reason, which doesn't look really good to me, to vote Mallow over EW while still hinting that you would be ready to vote for EW (which you previously called town). This trying to keep your options open while indirectly lending a hand to EW is what I find scummy and potentially indicative of the two of you being buddies (once again this was not only my impression but also that of a confirmed townie who was NKed).

HI tried to bury Mallow which I find less scummy because it's a risky thing to do when you know he is going to flip town on you, but sure, also a possibility to take under consideration, in fact if I'm wrong on you and EW my preffered scumteam would be HI and Singer.

[copper223]

@Drixx

You finish off this post of assumptions and poorly reasoned premises by suggesting the NK was simply indicative of newbie scum killing the IC because he's the IC. This might be the worst assertion/assumption in your entire post. You suggest that killing Cabd is less of a frame than killing you; however, that implies knowledge that no doctor could have saved you. Only the scum know which game setup is in play right now, and I think you just slipped. On the (generous) assumption that you didn't just slip, I feel obligated to point out that any scum team would have had to consider a doctor as possibly in play, and given how much you think of yourself (See: fight between you and HI at the end of day phase 1 for your own words), you should probably admit that you were very central in yesterday's play. In fact, you drove quite a lot of it. While you might have made a good frame for me or EW, I suspect most scum teams would have rated you a high chance to be doc saved, if a doctor was in play, so your argument about Cabd being a worse frame job doesn't really amount to much. Add to it that he flipped as Cop and I'm not even sure the kill was motivated by any desire to frame (or not). It looks to me like the scum in this game sniffed out a PR, plain and simple.

Finally, in the end, you allow that you might have misread the game, a little, but you then declare that you are so great at mafia that you won't go against your post without proof.

So I don't really think there is much worth replying to here, other than noting how your read on me keeps oscillating drammatically, it looks like you want to desperately call me scum but then decide it's better not to do so.

That horrible premise you just mentioned turned out to be 100% accurate in both newbie games I played, 1551 with HI and 1543, in both cases the IC was killed N1 and in both cases 2 newbie players made that kill, so forgive me if I think that's the most likely case.

As for scum considering doc saves, was that the reason you decided not to kill me? If anything I see you slipping here, honestly with all the possible setups before the cop kill I did not even think about it, but if you know there might be a doc because you have a role blocker, then I can see why you'd think about this.

[copper223]

there you go guys, I'm off to bed.

[copper223]

@Singer
I admit I forced it a bit to see how he would react later, but when I was dismissing his framing theory for killing Cabd over me I did not think scum would leave me alive because I'm a potential medic save.

It's still a bunch of WIFOM though, we all might have been BP so is not submitting a kill the best strategy? From the scum qt's I've checked the doc dodge save N1 doesn't come up much, it does give us insight in how Drixx thinks though.

You have the same problem Drixx had in that you are not following the premise; spilt theory on a tvt wagon predicts your teammate if you are scum is on the EW wagon so he is likely one of {++--, Copper, Jason,}, it is irrelevant for that analysis how likely a Drixx Singer scumteam is because you

were on the same wagon

@Drixx
I see your next walls and will reply when I've had time to check them.

[copper223]

Is it possible to blackilist a player from your games?

[copper223]

Nope I still think the retard is town, mainly beacuse of that post where he calls me town for unvoting yesterday, to bad because I'd enjoy burying the shit oit of him. I am policy lynching him in every game I find him D1 from now.

@++--
what are your updated reads?

@Jason
Why aren't you voting EW, did you change your mind from yesterday?

[copper223]

Fair enough, sorry for the insult.

@Drixx
If a player lurks all the time, doesn't bother to defend himself, and promptly claims vanilla chances are his win con does not involve surviving at all costs, it was the correct lynch only because there was an imposed vote from the people on his wagon (and his lynch was definitely better than NL). How would you feel if your scumbuddy behaved like Mallow in a game?

That lynch was the path of least resistance and I'm convinced at least one scum player or more likely both were on it. The fact there was such a strong resistance on EW strongly hints he is scum, the alternative is scum really wanted a lynch on Mallow and thst seems a really ballsy play coming from a declared passive player like Singer and from HI or scum got the lucky brake of the century letting town lynch town while sitting confy on the EW wagon.

Unfortunately HI is dropping associative tells with Singer like flies so idk, EW still seems by far the scummier and if he is scum most likely so are you.

[copper223]

@Drixx
You are doing a fair job of looking town I'll admit, 553 is pretty good and your analysis of the NK is deeper than mine, I don't know if that's because you had to think of this as scum or if it's playstile related (it does fit), who do you think is scum now and why?

[copper223]

@Singer
my bad.

[copper223]

@HI
After re-reading it's true that that was pretty uncalled for since this is still a game and I have likely not been making it fun for you, sorry and goodnight.

[copper223]

@Drixx
See here is where I stop buying what you are selling.

You are telling me you have thought in minute detail about the night kill, down to how the setup would modify the preffered scum kill, but you are unable to give me any insight on town objective number 1, who the scumteam is, without a re-read?

To me this indicates your considerable analytical power is bent on working from a scum framework and not from a town mindset where trying to find the two scumbuddies would be your top priority.

Your only scumread being a likely bus also doesn't endear you to me.

@All
I'm sticking with EW/Drixx.

[copper223]

@Drixx
Yup that pretty much seals it, after trying really hard to buddy buddy you are going with the only other road left open. I don't mind lynching either you are EW today, I'm not lynching anyone else.

[copper223]

@Drixx
1. Your only scumread before your about face on me was EW, the player I have been wanting to lynch for most of the game.

2. You just finished telling HI how you now had a solid town read on me a few posts before the vote.

3. After what clearly is a buddying attempt that did not pay off you switched your read on me, saying my posts are now full of slips (once again in your previous posts I had made one possible slip in the use of the word honestly and the rest was pretty clear to you).

4. As I said before you decided to go ahead and vote, it looked like you were trying desperately to call me scum but decided it was better for you not to, HI voting for me must have given you the courage to go through with it. I think Singer picked up on this and that's what she was referring to with the 11.02 analogy.

Unfortuantely for you there are people here willing to slog through all the walls you write and find the obvious inconsistencies in your posts.

[copper223]

@++--
I have no reason to change my reads on the game when I haven't been proven wrong yet. How do you propose to account for the other 25% of the cases? The only way I know how is to first go with the 75% while we have mislynches available and if that proves to be wrong then re-evaluate.

Drixx flipping reads on me like crazy does not ping you?

[copper223]

If you do not lynch EW in the next 24 hours you should not be allowed outside without adult supervision.

[copper223]

@EW...do you mind just giving the cliff notes version of Drixx's case on copper so I feel like you actually understand why you're voting? "Yeah, what he said" isn't really reassuring...

Essentially, Copper's case is based on several assumptions and he won't change his case despite the fact that Drixx pointed this out.

Every case is based on assumptions unless you are a cop with a red check, this is nonsense.

[copper223]

UNVOTE: copper223

Still waiting for J-Weezy. Unvoting only to stop anyone from hammering.

I am turning around on this, despite how bad HI is I don't think he is this horrible and it's possible that his Mallow crusade was a desperate attempt to save EW. It would miff me if I got it wrong on Choof because it looked like sound analysis at the time but there you have it, he also completely ignored Drixx saying his vote on me was a reaction test to see how I would react (which sounds the height of bullshit to me), while immediately voting me for having said I exagerated my stance to get a reaction from Drixx, very inconsistent and scummy even from him, leaning scum now.

The problem is Drixx is also very scummy, I'll try to re-read him again.

If you geniuses manage to lynch me and after I flip town you will lynch Epic Warrior.

[copper223]

HI, I really appreciate it, but odds are I'll get hammered anyway, and then no matter if I'm town or scum they'll think you're scum too. As evidenced by that exchange higher on this page.

This sounds like EW telling HI not to help him because he is going down, especially the: no matter what I flip makes no sense, why would you say that as town?

[copper223]

Epic Warrior

, not sure if you know this or not, but you shouldn't claim even at L-1 unless someone claims intent to hammer. And since all four players off your lynch have expressed no desire to hammer you, my advise is that you shouldn't claim at all.

What you SHOULD do, however, is scum hunt more so I don't feel stupid for reading you newb-town.

Thanks.

Scum coaching scum?

[copper223]

Oh God not copper223 again.

Replace out.

loljk~

I'll read the game in a bit, gents.

To understand this you have to check 1551, I though HI was scum for most of the game (because being bad he spent his time 1v1in a town read of mine) so I was going to get him lynched before he force replaced out to avoid it (very classy), so he comes into the game and his first worry is: shit Copper is playing, if he tunnels me again I'm screwed. What does this say about which alignment he more likely is?

I think I'm sold, EW/HI is the scumteam for this game, Drixx just OMGUSED me and Singer is the only one on the Mallow train I don't really FoS.

Jason and ++-- are town, Jason's low contribution is not helping us but holidays are holidays.

[copper223]

++-- I don't give A FUCK about how arrogant you think I am, EW is scum this game and I am trying to win it, what do you think I will tell you about who to lynch? If you don't follow after going through with posdibly the worst lynch in history, I tried my best.

[copper223]

@++--
Completly out of game related but pot meet kettle, you persist in telling me how I am supposed to play which to me is the true arrogance, I am (over?)confident about my reads, if you don't follow your own instincts and logic in this game you might as well not play, and your strategy (similar to Drixx?) of covering every single scenario is first of all impossible to achieve and second is bad for when presenting your case to the rest of town, we all want to know who the most likely scum is, not what % Copper gives for Drixx being an alt of a player that routinely wall-posts only as scum.

[copper223]

If EW flips this game we will see whose playstile has more merit.

[copper223]

@Drixx

2.

Hostile Intent (formerly choof)

: Post 41 actually worries the fuck out of me given who replaced in. HI, did you replace in with a read on this slot of having read any of the game beforehand? I'm actually partially gutting some weird fowl play here but I suppose it is what it is. That said, incredibly unlikely to be scum with paul, so.

The only follow up from HI on this was he was scared of Cabd, he then voted Cabd

for putting EW at L-1

, he unvoted because his vote was "dumb and useless"(EW was still at L-1).

So my updated consideration of the NK is I was left alive most likely not because of medic saves but because of my town read on the Choof/HI slot, the next most threatening player for EW was Cabd and HI was also rapidly approaching his shit list with that vote and not replying to Cabd's concerns so that's why he was killed.

Notice also how HI came into D2, "I'm sorry Copper, you were right but

I want to go on Drixx now

, you were likely the designated mislynch because your stalling the EW looks scummy, because Cabd wanting you dead and getting killed also looked bad for you and because if you flipped town my EW / Drixx theory would be discredited and they could still kill me tonight if there is no role blocker.

[copper223]

@EW
Yes Drixx is so right, I'm not changing my reads... I just completely switched my read on HI which was one of the starting points for me this game and now also believe Drixx is more likely town than scum, the read that is not changing is the correct one I have on you.

[copper223]

I can make a page long case on why you are scum here and already have, those 2 quotes are relevant for your HI coonection.

[copper223]

@Out of game
I'm out, happy 2015 to all of you.

[copper223]

Back to the nitty gritty

@Drixx
You spent D1 shielding what amounts to confscum from my pov and lynching a guy I told you was at best a 55/45 for what basically amounts to your (bad) policy on lurking, so STFU? In fact if you are town you were so bad scum likely picked you for a framejob, this should speak for itself.

Oh but I do have new information, HI's snap vote on me made no sense given his stated prior town read and that he had just got confirmation from the flip on Mallow that I likely had town's best interests at heart to begin with, I also did not like how he was testing the waters with Singer before jumping, his follow up about giving him a few posts before going back to you sounded weird, his contradiction on how he ignored you for saying you were reaction testing me compared to snap voting me is unaccounted for and finally his reaction to the EW sheep is pretty damning, that unvote shows how self conscious he was about the wagon and how he quickly needed to get off.

After that it was a matter of re-reading keeping in mind a possible EW/HI team, note that the logical framework I used to reach you and EW is still perfectly valid, what fell through was my assumption that HI is town which you could all dispute on your own if you disagreed with it, and to be fair you (Drixx) did question me about it when asking about my standards when judging HI, but then for mysterious reasons you did not follow through to reach your own conclusion about who is actually scum in this game, which as town should be your top priority.

Frankly I'm still not 100% on you because your scumhunting to date is a policy lynch on lurkers, a sheep of my read on EW and at best an OMGUS on me, that's really bad but after seeing the associations between EW and HI I have to think they must be the scumteam.

I also stated prior to all this that HI was a possible blind spot for me and the meta you are looking for is plain to see in Newbie 1551, so this possible Copper switched to appease me idea is just

[copper223]

Better go to bed with an aspirin cause the letters are spinning

[copper223]

@Singer
Please justify your last two statements, why do you think the first interaction is more likely to be EW_Scum and HI_Town and why is the big SHOULD scumhunt in the second quote more likely to be a general theory post from HI?

Do you now have a townread in HI? If so when did it change from your scumread of Choof and why?

[copper223]

@Singer
Also if you think that this points to EW scum why were you town reading him yesterday? You said you were more sure of EW being town than Mallow being scum (which you gave as 75%) and that's a pretty strong endorsment.

[copper223]

@Drixx
I asked you today who scum is and you told me you needed a re-read, that is worrisome. Pointing out scummy or off posts doesn't mean much if you don't follow through by voting for those people.

Who knows what Mallow would have done, for sure I'd be happier with an EW lynch because that would have yielded a wealth more of information even if it turned out that this game I'm high on bath salts and my scumreads are crap, and despite a scummy player being at L-1 the rest of you (you are right HI was the driving force) refused to hammer, organised a counterwagon for EW (who joined stating he didn't find Mallow too scummy btw if you forgot) and forced that lynch through, this would not have worked without the cooperation of Singer and Drixx, and of the two of you Singer looked like the more open to a hammer on EW. Not only is this very unusual, all of you minus HI are flipping your read around on EW now which leaves me scratching my head about the resistance yesterday.

What you added about EW is that he continued lurking, that's self evident.

I'd like to add that his gameplan is surviving at all costs, just look at that L-1 on me and the bogus reasons he came up with for it, so if he turns out to be town after all that's the most mafia sided approach I've seen since a guy self hammered himself as cop.

@Singer
I understand you'd like those information from Drixx, but I want to know what you think, if you want to hear Drixx replying first fine by me.

[copper223]

@Drixx
How is her analysis fairly good if you believe Scum_EW currying favour from Town_HI is off the table?

I understand the second point you are making more, I'm focusing on the part where HI tells EW that he SHOULD scumhunt more so that he can feel happy about giving him a newb_town read.

[copper223]

That conclusion is based on his willingness to join any promising lynch regardless of how scummy he feels a player actually is, he got away with lurking in the later part of the day yesterday while when active earlier he was getting massive heat from me, Jason, ++-- and Cabd so from his pov it makes sense that saying as little as possible and hopping on wagons is the best survival strategy.

[copper223]

Reagarding scumteams being ballsy and obvious, if EW is scum this game this is a special situation, you do not survive in this setup if your teammate gets lynched D1 so you have to defend him, if you are looking for a teammate of his the connection is going to be obvious, I also may have underestimated this point when looking at what I believed to be the more indirect deflection from Drixx rather than the more blatant approach HI took.

[copper223]

@++--
I thought about it but for me EW is still easily the most scummy player in the game.

[copper223]

@++--
Why does HI_scum go to such lengths to WK EW_town?

[copper223]

I don't understand anything in this game anymore.

That readlist is a joke, EW has no partner? Did you see how many people stalled his lynch yesterday? EW doesn't make the Cabd kill, in which team does EW decide who to kill if he is scum and why not?

So you now have a likely scumread on me?

UNVOTE: this makes no sense so I have to re-read from scratch.

[copper223]

Nope I still think EW is scum

VOTE: EW

If I missed my mark on him I deserve the mislynch and I not only will not blame you for it (I'm afraid the game is pretty lost in this case though) but will also apologize post game.

I still need to work out the rest, my base reaction is to say Jason is his partner, because EW said to Jason when Jason first went on him that the reason he gave could not be the

only one

he had, and much later Jason asked us to lynch EW because he is

useless

instead of because he is scum, but I'm not immune to OMGUS and there is a wild HI in this game so I neec to think about it.

I don't think Drixx is likely scum anymore.

++-- is town and Singer is likely town.

[copper223]

@HI
I am staking my game on EW being scum, you are defending him super hard and your progression on my read is total crap, so you are either mafia sided or mafia, being you I can't tell.

If I flip and you are town, ask yourself if it's not time to take a break from forum mafia, if you are scum, well played.

[copper223]

@++--
Why is HI/Singer not a consideration for you?

@All
After reviewing his ISO that bus D1 from Jason on EW seems very unlikely, especially because he actively defended Mallowgeno, but his newfound townread of EW because he has no partners, as if scum doesn't try to distance themselves from EW if they are teammates, and doesn't kill Cabd, I already gave you an excellent reason for why they do with EW/HI and the same could be said about EW/Singer or EW/Jason, makes absolutely 0 sense, so I don't really know.

My best guess, EW's teammate is 65% HI, 20% JW, 10% Drixx and 5% Singer.

If I get hammered here (this is the first time I'd get lynched in a game I believe) I am pretty confident both scum are on this wagon, so look at who was very opportunistic about their vote on me, EW and HI make a lot of sense, but as I said I am more confident about EW.

[copper223]

You're suggesting that I lynch someone who I'm not sure about to avoid getting lynched myself? I thought town was supposed to lynch scum. It shouldn't be every man for himself.

And, are we not all trying to survive?

...

No, I'm trying to lynch scum. I hammered Mallow because nobody on his wagon wanted to hammer you, are you comparing a deadline lynch with you popping up in the thread to put me at L-1 and disappearing again?

[copper223]

It screams opportunistic, EW is not even consistent with himself, he argues with Drixx about why he was reticent to join the Mallow wagon (something Drixx wasn't even questioning him about, so a bit defensive there bud) saying you shouldn't join wagons just to survive yourself, but immediately below when replying to Copper he flips his opinion around and now trying to survive is totally fine.

[copper223]

@Drixx
Once again who are your scumreads?

[copper223]

@Singer
Why aren't you using your vote today?

[copper223]

@EW
Let's pretend here that you are town, do you think I would have a legitimate reason as town myself for voting you given how the game has gone?

[copper223]

@Drixx
I am asking you about your scumreads because you were keeping me, a player you have repeatedly said is a 50/50 for you, at L-1, when you've had a scumread on EW for a while now and that's not how we play on MS, voting for someone that is not your main scumread is considered scummy unless you're shifting around for a deadline lynch.

This said I like your summary, what do the cat. mean and could you give me a ./. on Singer and Jason as well? (not game related TSR is my favourite movie of all time).

[copper223]

@mod please prod Jason Wazza

[copper223]

@EW
So why were you in such a hurry to vote me off?

[copper223]

UNVOTE:
Actually let's play it safe here because some of what ++--, Drixx and HI are saying about 1v1's behind which scum can hide, EW mailing it in and Jason and Singer being unreasonably absent is resonating.

My confidence on Jason just got shredded after that shit readlist, and allowing a player to lurk a whole day after that by potentially hammering EW early is just strategically unsound no matter my personal belief that EW is scum here.

I also have the same problem, but to a lesser degree with Singer, there is very little scumhunting from you today, I want your thoughts on the game.

[copper223]

@EW
Yes, you just told me you can see me going after you as town given how the game has played out, so my supposed tunnel on you is not a good reason alone for calling me mafia, by your own logic.

This is not about HI, who may well be scum too, it's about you, stop deflecting the question and explain your reasoning.

[copper223]

Basing the reason for clearing a player you were scumreading for the entirety of yesterday on the night kill and a set of highly WIFOM assumptions about associative pairs that make very little sense, and using it to call me likely scum at a very opportunistic moment for scum to do so, combined with lurking

on purpose

, since otherwise you would have just tabbed out after the last warning, is raising every possible alarm I can think of.

Another very good reason to kill Cabd if you are Jason or Jason and Singer is that in your mind you have just eliminated every experienced player in the game.

Not only that, but when warned you come back and your main focus is to justify yourself more (lamely) when your supposed scumread is getting ready to lynch the guy you said is town? No no, this doesn't make sense.

VOTE: Jason

The sad thing is if this is true EW is more likely to be town, and fuck me I'd have never seen a worse townie in this case.

[copper223]

UNVOTE:
waiting for the rest of Singer's re-read.

[copper223]

We have a genuine read from Cabd stating that Jason's pride in his scumgame from his early posting rings true and by the way he gives the rest of the read it looks like direct meta to me, if you have pride in your scum game you do not replace out like this (it's kind of a douche move anyway) so I think the slot is town.

@Singer
My analysis is similar, Drixx scum kills Cabd over me, HI scum also kills Cabd over me, finally if EW is not scum I can see a lot of teams letting me live.

[copper223]

I like Singer as town by the way, because she is the first to brake the ++-- is town wagon that has been going on with everyone since I gave my early D1 read on him, there is no reason for scum not to happily join there and either live with him tomorrow as semi confirmed if they have to kill me or just off him tonight, this is another of the endless list of scumreads I have on EW because he of course immediately put his hands in the cookie jar as soon as ++-- moved off his wagon in favour of HI.

[copper223]

@EW
You are at

L-1

, I'm going to

state intent to hammer

in

48 hours

, you have till then to argue your case after which if nothing changes with the players voting for you or my personal read I will ask you to claim and likely hammer.

[copper223]

Fair enough I promise not to ask for a claim and hammer until there are

24 hours

left in the day, nor should anyone else.

[copper223]

@Boon
If both Drixx and Singer are scum, why is EW still alive?

[copper223]

I'm talking about yesterday when EW was at L-1, before HI and Singer built a counterwagon on Mallow.

[copper223]

VOTE: Epic Warrior

[copper223]

The point was to give him time to reply and claim before hammering.

[copper223]

You want to sell me the idea it's almost impossible in this game to lynch newbtown lynchbait EW when scum had no interest in keeping him alive whatsoever and every opportunity to kill him off blaming me for it or to kill me off when someone who is town turned around on me for tunnelling him, I say it is far far far more likely that all this is because he is scum.

[copper223]

@Boon
Pretty much your scumreads with Drixx and Singer reversed (without knowing my alignment, me for sure).

[copper223]

@Singer
Do you think Boon is scum?

[copper223]

I also think Boon is likely town, but a lot of what he is bringing up doesn't make sense to me.

Drixx you had no opportunity to hammer me as you already were on the wagon, when asked why you kept me at L-1 as a 50/50 you implied it was a bait for scum to see if they would state intent, you did have ample opportunity to hammer EW.

++-- what HI did could also easily come from HI town, he always thought EW was newbtown, then EW's usual shifty replies, particularly that one about surviving made him switch his read, now Boon comes in and says he was right about him so he unvotes, there is an internal consistency there which is also reflected in his mood (I have no clue what is going on anymore) so I am actually leaning more town there.

I'm going to go over Singer again, but I don't think she is scum.

[copper223]

No I don't see Singer as likely scum here.

Drixx pressing the theory that if EW is scum so is Boon is I think also significant, and what he said about Singer D1 and the way she reacted makes them an unlikely team.

[copper223]

So who are your scumreads?

[copper223]

@Boon
The best read on why he may be scum was what Singer said about him making a mountain out of a molehill, he is leaning scum out of poe for me at the moment but HI is a hard read for me, so I'd much rather go with EW.

[copper223]

@Drixx
Scum don't have daychat so I'm not considering the two of you as some sort of entity, she could hammer both me and EW and chose not to, you could hammer EW yesterday and did not, those are the facts, the rest is speculation.

@All
The other fact is once again EW comes in to drop two popular opininos, gives no analysis of the game and ignores all open questions then disappears.

[copper223]

@EW
You have established a track record of doing those things, during the latter part of yesterday and during most of today, so why the heck wouldn't I say that?

Do you want to go back and check how many times you did not answer me or you deflected the question?

- Who are your scumreads now and why?
- Why is Boon town?
- Why is Singer/Drixx unlikely?
- Why do you say ++-- has updated his reads more than me and why does that make him town?
- Unless you changed your scumread on me, why are you scumreading me when you said you could see me as town going for you based on how the game is going?
- What was Drixx's case on me you sheeped to put me at L-1 and which points in particular did you agree with?

[copper223]

There is nothing to say it's guaranteed either Epic/Drixx or Singer/Drixx, you should all vote the player you think is the scummiest, if no lynch has the numbers we can start to talk about possible compromises but after I listened to you guys yesterday I'm not in a very conciliatory mood.

[copper223]

@++--
without a lot of screaming on your part it's not going to be HI so either come here and scream, join me or tell us who your new scumteam is and why.

[copper223]

@Drixx
That's a quality post there, I can tell you HI WK'ed newbscum last game as well, as town (seems to me he may have a bias in wking new players regardless) and another player BBT said HI usually ignores his scumpartners and made a meta case on him about that so this would be a departure, although as I said if EW is scum all bets are off here cause his partner likely had to save him D1.

I played with Boon in mini 1623 where he was scum and WK'ed town Flubber D1 which ironically got him lynched, he claimed in the game his town is about appearing VI so i can only assume logical arguments are not his strength, I saw no trace of this active (although very illogical to me) scumhunting in the other game so I think it is likely he genuinely believes EW is neebtown.

[copper223]

@HI

I'm pretty sure there being three days left means a compromise has to bend made.

If ++-- is fine with EW (he said he saw you and him as equally likely) and Singer is willing to hammer him there need not be, why are you trying so hard to move it from EW again?

[copper223]

@HI
No, I remember, but Singer also put EW in hammer range just before Boon replaced in so I have reason to believe she may have changed her mind in the mean time.

That's good to know, what I'd like more is your best guess for the scummiest player at the moment and a vote on that guy, ++-- and Drixx have a point about your play looking opportunistic especially based on the way you used your vote today.

[copper223]

@Boon
That's my direct meta on you. I'm more interested in your town game, were you saying the truth there about being VI as town?

[copper223]

who are you scumreading?

[copper223]

Sounds town to me as well, but I think you have the wrong read on EW.

[copper223]

@Boon
A concise case on why Singer is scum for you would help.

[copper223]

@Singer
That sucks, good luck with getting it fixed.

[copper223]

Fair enough, like with what Boon posted I think 821 is pretty townie from ++--

@Singer/Epic
Please give us your pov's as soon as possible.

[copper223]

Ask him to claim first.

[copper223]

Why are you in such a hurry, if he doesn't claim till close to the deadline go ahead and hammer if you want to, otherwise wait for him to do so, there is no reason not to.

[copper223]

@HI
It's not about town points, it's about making sure we don't screw up by lynching a PR when we can easily avoid doing so and it's about Singer not posting, that statement you made about not wanting to go to lylo if EW flips scum combined with the latest posts from Drixx and the fact I remembered about Red Lugia claiming VT at the start of D2 like he did D1 has raised my paranoia level significantly.

[copper223]

GG all, sorry town I blame myself for the loss for not seeing Epic was newbtown.

It's a shame cause I had plenty of good content this game but 2 key mistakes washed away the good stuff.

That read on Choof baiting a wagon as town, should have stuck with it when HI, a player I always read as scum anyway, replaced in, and my condescension towards newer players saying they fell for it because they are new was a big mistake , it could have been game then and there.

My policy of lynching newbie replacements, Paul was in fact scum, Drixx put in an admirable amount of work to save it.

My read on Singer being town despite the two of us having really different playstiles.

My read on Cabd being killed by Drixx and a newbie team.

My split wagon theory if both were town.

My read on Jason not replacing out as scum and Boon being therefore town.

Unfortunately mostly scumreading Epic and somewhat townreading ++-- means all the above matters squat.

@++--
Excellent game, I only suspected you twice for very brief moments, when you said nobody was reading you correctly (so were you scum?) and when you said I'm more of a 7 out of 10 (how does he come to that conclusion, does he know I'm wrong here?), otherwise pretty town, but you have to be more decisive at lylo, I was commenting with Tool that scum was about to self implode and it would have been a shame!

@Drixx
Also well played for coming in in a difficult position and turning it around! Also scum that loves TSR is just unfair.

@HI
I'm very sorry and the joke is on me because as I said in the dead thread, if there is a retard in this game it's me, you were right on Epic so that L-1 was perfectly justified, it looked absurd to me at the time and that's why I reacted badly to it.

@Epic
Already said so in the dead thread but here's my humble pie, sorry for tunneling on you when you were town.

p-edit: once the hammer vote is cast there is nothing town can do so it's good etiquette to tell them you were scum.

[copper223]

Cabd did check Epic N1 btw.

[copper223]

@Boon & HI
How could you tell he was town, he looked so mafia to me I don't even know... I've been playing regularly with a bunch of friends for years now and we rarely have new players joining in (they are also the vast minority when they do and easy to isolate in these cases) so I feel that may be a weakness in my game here.

[copper223]

+1

[copper223]

Don't be, I think you played the lylo really well, it would have been so easy to vote Boon after confirming yourself as town.

[copper223]

Count Dooku, good guess then.

[copper223]

Thanks Epic!