Micro 677: Double Day Unlimited in Wifom City - Town Win

[nydushermain]

Hi.

[nydushermain]

Ermmm! /confirm

[nydushermain]

Gonna assume this means that the day has begun! Hello fellow townspeople and fellow townees and townsmen and townswomen! Allow me to begin the RTS to say that

Not_Mafia

is NEVER mafia.

[nydushermain]

VOTE: Towns Last Hope

2 scum, 1 vote

VOTE: Alisae

That pun = policy lynch

[nydushermain]

And infinite votes!

[nydushermain]

So far, according to the wiki, the setup is 2-4 in terms of town wins to scum wins. That's pretty low... Maybe it's just because it's a low sample size but I think if it's representative, it probably shows town reliance on active PRs.

[nydushermain]

Let's do the math a little bit:

9 People total = 7 town + 2 scum

Let's say we lynch 2 people today and it's a ML
-> 5 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Lynch 2 People that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 1 Person that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 2 People that day, one hits one is a ML
-> 3 town + 1 scum
Night Kill
-> 2 town + 1 scum
Final 3

If we lynch 1 person today and it's a ML
-> 6 town + 2 scum
Night Kill
-> 5 town + 2 scum*
If we lynch 2 people and it's a ML = lose
If we lynch 1 person and it's a ML
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 2 scum
Final 5

If we go back to *
If we lynch 2 people and one is a ML and one is a hit
-> 4 town + 1 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 1 scum
= 2 lynches to hit the last in a final 4

Basically, this seems kind of aimless but what I'm trying to say is that no matter what, it seems like as long as we don't lose right off the bat on day 2, we have 5 lynches at most to find scum, and 3 lynches to hit the first one at least. We pretty much have to decide which route we take and which risks we want to take to try to hit the scum.

I'd argue that finding scum one day 1 is a bit harder, and I'd probably opt to say that we should only lynch one person on day one UNLESS we hit scum #1 and save the rest of the lynches for day 2 and day 3. Even statistically, I think it's beneficial because let's say we're in a final 4 position, we have 2 lynches to find the remaining scum and it's a 50% chance because you're hitting 2 (that math might actually be wrong) in 4. Haven't looked TOO into this yet but the kind of math is there for you and I might have missed scenarios. The only ones that I haven't mentioned are the ones where we win straight up by lynching both scum, and the ones where scum is lynched on day 1. If it gets to that point, we can scrap whatever is in this post and see what our optimal lynch path is.

[nydushermain]

1. As an addition to post 38, let's say that we took this path:

1. a) Lynch 2 day 1
1. b) Lynch 2 day 2 and one of them hit
1. c) Final 3

1. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9 and then 2/8
1. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/6 and then 2/5
1. c) Final 3 is a standard 1/3


2. If we take the second path:

2. a) Lynch 1 day 1
2. b) Lynch 2 day 2
2. c) Final 5

2. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
2. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7 and then 2/6
2. c) Final 5 is 2/5 and then 1/3


3. If we take the third path:

3. a) Lynch 1 day 1
3. b) Lynch 2 day 2 and one of them is a hit
3. c) Final 4

3. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
3. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7 and then 2/6
3. c) The probability of hitting scum is 1/2

[nydushermain]

Sorry I did 2. wrong.

It should be:

2. a) Lynch 1 day 1
2. b) Lynch 1 day 2
2. c) Final 5

2. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
2. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7
2. c) Final 5 is 2/5 and then 1/3

[nydushermain]

Sorry! You guys don't have to read what I'm posting! I just know I'll forget if I don't write it down somewhere.

[nydushermain]

My analysis is this:

We should never do 2 because that just sounds dumb... as in, we should always lynch twice in either day 1 or day 2 (or both).

Lynching twice in day 1 AND day 2 gives us the best chance of finding scum # 1 but the worst chance of finding scum # 2

Lynch once in day 1 and twice in day 2 gives us the lowest chance of finding scum # 1 but the best chance of finding scum # 2

[nydushermain]

It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy

That's not a bad read (although it's wrong) because I'm doing it out of boredom. I literally posted the above because I'm procrastinating actual work. New setups are exciting, especially when the variables aren't that complicated.

[nydushermain]

Also, the wiki says that we have a shitty win rate on this set up so I wanted to break it down and see if we could break the game and gain a slight advantage.

[nydushermain]

Jesus christ is this another reaction test?

[nydushermain]

Agreed in full with the above post. Single votes are better. Plus alisae is scummy.
VOTE: alisae

On to the theory. It is imperative that we lynch twice everyday. That gives us 3 mislynches and then we can still win the game. If we lynch only once today, we're done for after 3 mislynches.

The highest amount of lynches is always best in a setup like this. I can do the math if anyone disagrees but that town wants to have as many lynches as possible should be a no-brainer.

Disagree. I agree that the highest amount of lynches is best but 1 lynch today, 2 lynches tomorrow (if we hit scum) gives us 2 lynches in the final day.

2 lynches today, 2 lynches tomorrow (if we hit scum), gives us 1 lynch in the final day.

Either way, it amounts to 5 lynches to hit the 2 scum. It only changes how quickly mylo/lylo hits us. If alisae is actually dead and flips town, we should probably lynch twice today, and lynch twice tomorrow because we don't have as much interactions considering it was such a quick lynch.

[nydushermain]

UNVOTE:

I'm pretty sure I have a vote somewhere -_- so I'm gonna just take that off now... I suggest everyone do the same. It's easy to lose track of votes in this game I'm assuming considering what just happened.

[nydushermain]

Granted it's useless now since we already lynched (and apparently mislynched? mod pls?), I feel like no one actually read my analysis. You don't have to have read the math because that was just my notes which I put up there in case anyone wanted to take a look at it, but no one really read the analysis part which showed why 1 lynch day 1 was not a bad thing depending on how confident we were on lynching the first scum.

[nydushermain]

Nyd it's too late.
Hammer was accomplished.
Takes 5 to lynch man.

I also have a vote on NM and we have another potential lynch today. Do you have any twilight reads? Probably doesn't matter much but anything super obvious to you?

[nydushermain]

The mod being slow might actually be an advantage. If anyone else is here, I'd like them to show up.

[nydushermain]

Well... fuck

Yet you're not unvoting on everyone else?

[nydushermain]

Yeah, we have a total of 2 lynches max per day. Day isn't locked. That makes more sense as to why you didn't unvote though but I suggest you do it now.

[nydushermain]

Plus pressuring them right now isn't a bad thing to do...
Now that I'm thinking about it, it could be they are just trying to leave RVS asap...

You nailed it btw. Well... kinda. I was bored so I wanted to just throw content somewhere and see what happened but I guess that's the same as wanting to leave RVS. It just wasn't with the intent of "let's gtfo of RVS"

In the minute amount of time you played this game, you can take solace in knowing you were right on that haha.

[nydushermain]

Votes don't carry over as far as I know, by day I mean phase 1 of the day or whatever the name is

That actually makes sense.

Imagine there were 8 people, meaning 5 to lynch. Let's say person A had 4 votes, and person B had 4 votes. If person A gets hammered, then it would be 4 to lynch and then person B would auto get hammered. That sounds dumb.

[nydushermain]

Agreed in full with the above post. Single votes are better. Plus alisae is scummy.
VOTE: alisae

On to the theory. It is imperative that we lynch twice everyday. That gives us 3 mislynches and then we can still win the game. If we lynch only once today, we're done for after 3 mislynches.

The highest amount of lynches is always best in a setup like this. I can do the math if anyone disagrees but that town wants to have as many lynches as possible should be a no-brainer.

Disagree. I agree that the highest amount of lynches is best but 1 lynch today, 2 lynches tomorrow (if we hit scum) gives us 2 lynches in the final day.

2 lynches today, 2 lynches tomorrow (if we hit scum), gives us 1 lynch in the final day.

Either way, it amounts to 5 lynches to hit the 2 scum. It only changes how quickly mylo/lylo hits us. If alisae is actually dead and flips town, we should probably lynch twice today, and lynch twice tomorrow because we don't have as much interactions considering it was such a quick lynch.

If we nolynch today, we get 1 lynch the next day and then at 6 people left it's mylo, so we.... nolynch again? to take it to odds

You seem to be assuming we hit scum, right now that plan requires us to hit scum in 1 lynch tomorrow

Nope. We can do it in 2 tomorrow. If we miss twice today, we get to 7 players. NK makes it 6 players so if we miss once, we get to 5, but then we can still lynch a second time and if we hit mafia, we get to final 3.

[nydushermain]

I mean, I agree with ali's uncertainty in terms of how many scum are in her wagon.. I think that it was so fast that we can't really tell who was scum based on votes. Both scum could've literally not been in the wagon because they hadn't responded to the game thread in time, who knows.

[nydushermain]

I mean, I agree with ali's uncertainty in terms of how many scum are in her wagon.. I think that it was so fast that we can't really tell who was scum based on votes. Both scum could've literally not been in the wagon because they hadn't responded to the game thread in time, who knows.

What do you think of not mafia?

I think that his lack of content after RVSing to hammer ali is worrisome. He was clearly in the thread reading after his hammer because... well... he responded when I asked him to unvote a while later but he hasn't tried to game solve at all imo. Kinda scummy but I don't think that's enough.

Well if we lynch once today, we get two lynches tomorrow. It really depends on how many chances you think we'll need to hit the first scum. If we are confident, we can do 3 lynches (1 which we've already used), and then do 2 lynches in final 4.

[nydushermain]

I'm saying if we get to 6 people alive and 1 lynch for the day I'd argue to nolynch

Yeah so that's the thing. So let's say there are 2 scum alive and we have 6 people alive total. That means that there's 4 town vs 2 scum. Yes, it's better to sleep if you want a greater chance at hitting the first scum. However, let's say we do lynch the scum in final 6 and then get down to final 4. We have 2 lynches to find the final scum. So it's a matter of: do you want to have a better chance of lynching scum # 1 or 2?

[nydushermain]

That's what the math was for but it was really rudimentary. I didn't really do anything spectacular, just laid out the possibilities.

[nydushermain]

What I'm saying is if we end the day instead of lynching today, and we lynch twice tomorrow, we get 2 lynches in final 4. So no matter what, we get 5 lynches, whichever of the two paths we take. Your path gets us a greater chance of lynching mafia number 1, the second path gives us a better chance of lynching mafia number 2. Either way, let's not talk about this anymore. I feel like if we discuss this any further (and it's my fault), scum are going to join in and blend.

[nydushermain]

It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy

It's page 2 - though I'm not going to say your vote is useless either.

This accusation is vaguely scummy imo

Niceu niceu caesar-chan

The way I saw it Nyd is overanalysing and just posting numbers that I thought didn't mean much.

I hate this - not prone to an Alisae lynch now tbh.

Plus pressuring them right now isn't a bad thing to do...

I would have forgiven you more if this was your reason for that vote.

I'm ok with the Alisae lynch. That was my main SR. Just wouldn't have liked it to go that fast and would've liked more reactions.

@NYD: we are using the second lynch. In the wiki, this game has been played 6 times and no one has contemplated using the NL (I read the lynches for all of those games) - I see no reason to follow another order, even if the stats are in mafia favor (this is mostly due to skill rather than planning)

Yeah but I don't think they've done the analysis. Also, 33% town win rate on the wiki... maybe following in their footsteps is not the best thing. Either way, I'm all for second lynch today and two lynches tomorrow.

[nydushermain]

It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy

It's page 2 - though I'm not going to say your vote is useless either.

This accusation is vaguely scummy imo

Niceu niceu caesar-chan

The way I saw it Nyd is overanalysing and just posting numbers that I thought didn't mean much.

I hate this - not prone to an Alisae lynch now tbh.

Plus pressuring them right now isn't a bad thing to do...

I would have forgiven you more if this was your reason for that vote.

I'm ok with the Alisae lynch. That was my main SR. Just wouldn't have liked it to go that fast and would've liked more reactions.

@NYD: we are using the second lynch. In the wiki, this game has been played 6 times and no one has contemplated using the NL (I read the lynches for all of those games) - I see no reason to follow another order, even if the stats are in mafia favor (this is mostly due to skill rather than planning)

How are you reading the people who went on alisae? It appears he's flipping town.

[nydushermain]

Here's where I'm at. NM's hammer is NAI. You guys are trying to analyze it? Well stop because it's dumb and it's completely hypothetical. He could be this genius pretending to not have known it was a hammer, he could've also very well just meant to fully RVS and accidentally hammered. Who cares? We'll never know until post game. You guys are pushing on someone for something that isn't even a scum tell...

THAT BEING SAID. Here's why I think we should vote for him anyways:

He votes, hammers, and doesn't participate in trying to game solve. If I were in his position, I'd be so annoyed that it even happened and have tried to at least put in a modicum of game solving. I think that he was nervous about the hammer as scum and didn't want to have to deal with the drama of hammering. He was obviously reading the thread because I was having a discussion with alisae or someone and he chimed in with a really quick response when I asked for someone to speak. I think this is scum trying to avoid confrontation. It's an unnatural reaction for town to say absolutely nothing useful when they mishammer someone by accident and are still reading the thread....

VOTE: Not Mafia

I hope this is a hammer, didn't check the VC

[nydushermain]

Also, kudos to you TS, for pushing on scum.... but shame on you for doing it for the wrong reasons -_-

[nydushermain]

nydush the thing is Not_Mafia often plays like this, as town or scum. He's hilarious and I enjoy playing with him so I say this with love but you're going to have a hard time if you expect to determine his alignment by the amount of useful things he says.

It's not so much that he didn't say useful things, it's more so that he was obviously reading the thread, but he neither reacted in a way that I thought town would react to accidentally hammering, and didn't really contribute much when I was trying to bring people in to interact with alisae in the twilight. I should probably ego search him just in case though... thanks for bringing this up about his meta

[nydushermain]

Let's all be nice and vote the clowm that lolhammered page 3.

and Tier why do you believe that only scum!N_M would do this? He's lolhammered as town on pg 2 before.

That's the thing. I think that the hammering that NM did was NAI. I agree with you 100%

[nydushermain]

What a slow game...

[nydushermain]

I don't like any of the arguments presented. Will be re-reading.

I kind of agree in light of NM's meta of being nonexistent as either alignment...

[nydushermain]

I don't like any of the arguments presented. Will be re-reading.

I kind of agree in light of NM's meta of being nonexistent as either alignment...

I mean in favor of a vote.

Also what I meant.

[nydushermain]

We got a lynch pretty quickly

Yeah but it feels like no progress is being made..

[nydushermain]

No

UNVOTE:

But I don't have a good feeling about him. I don't think I'll ever be able to town read him if he plays this way tbh.

[nydushermain]

err

UNVOTE: NM

[nydushermain]

No

UNVOTE:

But I don't have a good feeling about him. I don't think I'll ever be able to town read him if he plays this way tbh.

What made you come off of him?

ftr I don't really like your push on him

guiltylion just rubs me the wrong way

Someone mentioned that it was just his meta to do nothing.

[nydushermain]

I'm so sorry I was away with IRL stuff. I should've V/LAed but I'm here now and will be free later tonight.

[nydushermain]

I need to VLA for the weekend so I'll see if the mod lets me cuz grad school applications are due T.T but I'd like to note that TS' reason for calling NM scum was horrific and not actually a scum tell. People should look at that if they don't think NM is mafia.

[nydushermain]

Okay guys, I'm back. I still want to kill Tiershift the mostest but I think that NM is also a good lynch. I think that there's 1 scum in there at most because of how TS went on NM but I think they're both pretty scummy.

TS: the reason he went on NM was because he thought that NM was pretending to not realize that he was hammering? That's BS and not really a scum tell because NM definitely could have done it as town. There's no indication that it was a scum tactic.

NM: still not a fan of how he reacted after the hammer. I would think that a town would be apologetic and at least existent somewhere after killing a town member

[nydushermain]

VOTE: TS
VOTE: NM

[nydushermain]

Nydus are you saying you believe NM would vote everyone and knowingly hammer as town?

I think that's pretty obviously not what he's saying by the way...

This.

Okay I'm rereading. Page 1-4: I like TLH putting the focus where it should be, in a relaxed manner. Nyd tries to be the perfect townie.

You literally just saw me in a game as scum. I don't play "perfect townie" as scum. However, thanks for the compliment :3 because I am town this game.

[nydushermain]

Also, you remember the game where I was actually scum TS? I went hard on the active players and ignored the inactive ones... one of the being you, and the other being RC on d1. I ignored the fuck out of jack, fykus, etc. Maybe meta reads are bad but you not having any memory of my actual scum play when we literally just finished a game together when I was scum is baffling.

[nydushermain]

I agree though, due to my attempts to scramble in finishing grad school apps, I only posted reads based on my memory of the game before I left, rather then catch up which I'll do in a moment in between classes.

[nydushermain]

@mod: in "the living list" on the main post, my slot is listed under pepchoninga. Not sure if that's an error

And now I'm at L-1 ffs Not_Mafia don't do that shit.
Also lol you self-voted.
also UNVOTE:

Okay so Alisae is at L-1..

VOTE: Alisae

Good opportunity I guess

But you attempted to hammer him without any reason.

WAIT

NM hammered you

But NM actually hammered him.

So, Why did you attempt to hammer Alisae?

This post feels ingenuine to me.

We were already voting Alisae

Mine's was a RVS though

What?

VOTE: Martha

[nydushermain]

Also, I'm back to being certain that NM is scum. I also think that hiraki is townie, but I'm feeling uneasy with how hiraki defends NM via chainsaw (proper use of terminology?).

I'm caught up and I still think that TS is scummy. I think that what he is pushing NM on is NAI and calling him a backup lynch after saying

VOTE: Martha Zolanski

Don't at all like the shade throwing/"analysis" at the end there. And the defensive "my vote was rvs" when nobody asked about it

agreed though but you don't think nm is a scummy scumfuck?

is shady as fuck. He should also know how I play scum since we both lived until the end in the game where I actually was scum. This is like a total 180 (I think).

[nydushermain]

I was rereading, and that was one of the most notable things. Also, I'd like to point this out:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3&start=75

This is page 4 which people can follow along with me. The page prior to this, alisae was "accidentally hammered" by NM and I don't think we'll know whether or not it was an actual intentional hammer until post game. NM hides until I tell him to speak or something along those lines and instead of talking about reads or anything useful, his only contribution is post 89 where he hides in talking about mechanics. He was posting just for the sake of posting without any attempt to game solve.

[nydushermain]

UNVOTE: Martha

not sure what the vote count is but I can do this for now, my immediate take here is that I don't like how nyd is suddenly recycling stale points about Martha

nyd I want you to talk about Tier's most recent push on you, do you think it's scum motivated and why or why not?

Also, I'm back to being certain that NM is scum. I also think that hiraki is townie, but I'm feeling uneasy with how hiraki defends NM via chainsaw (proper use of terminology?).

I'm caught up and I still think that TS is scummy. I think that what he is pushing NM on is NAI and calling him a backup lynch after saying

VOTE: Martha Zolanski

Don't at all like the shade throwing/"analysis" at the end there. And the defensive "my vote was rvs" when nobody asked about it

agreed though but you don't think nm is a scummy scumfuck?

is shady as fuck. He should also know how I play scum since we both lived until the end in the game where I actually was scum. This is like a total 180 (I think).

Why is it shady for Tier to push aggressively on N_M and then switch focus here? Town do that all the time

I think that TS should know how I play as scum so I think that it's extremely shady that he has more confidence in voting for me than someone he said was extremely scummy. Also, to answer your question about whether or not his push in scum motivated? I think that him townreading TLH, the only other person really going on me

could

be scum motivated but it could also be him genuinely reading TLH town as town!TS and coincidentally pushing on me. However, it does personally feel like he has some sort of agenda. His town read on TLH was just as lazy as my initial scum read on him.

[nydushermain]

I've been reading TLH's post and I'll say that I think that TLH comes off as townie for me but this is my first time playing with a hydra in forum mafia and in a video mafia format, they tend to be extremely hard to scum read as either alignment so I'm going to hold off judgement until the future. Would not vote on today though.

[nydushermain]

Only scum can be certain of people's alignments

Then vote me. We have unlimited votes for a reason.

[nydushermain]

I think that the only thing I see being townie from TS was when he said that single votes are better than not and when he ONLY voted on me. If he responds before deadline, I'll consider unvoting him.

[nydushermain]

Yes, theory talk because I find 3 people scummy but there are only 2.

[nydushermain]

i think the fake hammer needs to be examined more because it felt like it was covering the wagon

Sorry I've already read the game three times I didn't feel like there was much more I could say beyond that I was willing to vote for NM if TLH wasn't going to work.

I didn't like how GL took a hard angle on my case v. TLH when they supposedly had a scumread on Martha.

Hiraki appeared and asked the same questions I was asked twice over

Like, I'll go over it re: 239 just in the case that my word choice made sense in my head but not others.

1) I think it was indicative of someone wanting the Alisae wagon to look chaotic
2) I don't think the posthumous hammer is necessarily scum
3) (2, cont) with the assumption of double scum on the wagon, I think the fake hammer is AI. Continuing that line of thought I think it's most likely NM to necessitate point 1.

I get the impression from Hiraki's post 239 that they appeared to want to work with myself but didn't seem to care to do the same with NM or TLH. I think the triple vote is pretty dishonest here. Who exactly do you want to lynch today?

I'm liking lycan as town here. In particular, I like how he was told that VCA on alisae was not necessary information as we've already talked about it but proceeded to talk about it anyways. Not sure if I agree with points 1) and 3) though but his reads are easy to follow.

[nydushermain]

Theory talk

I'm ego searching you because people trying to be this intentionally annoying usually end up being town. If you've done this as scum, even once in 100 scum games, this vote is firmly planted for the rest of the game.

[nydushermain]

Nope, you've done it in the first scum game I found of you. Consider this vote planted.

[nydushermain]

UNVOTE: TS
UNVOTE: Martha

I think that TS has a good point about single votes. Let's all kill NM together. Also, I think I'm also tending towards TS being scum because his activity has been so lackluster this game, with very little questioning compared to what I am used to but it might have just been because he was the IC in the game I played with him (and he got a concussion during the happenings of this game).

[nydushermain]

Like I said, I'm pretty sure you're scum NM. If you're not, I think that the way you post just feels so scummy to me that I won't be able to shake it off. If you're town and you make it to a MyLo/LyLo situation with me in it, we lose so this has to happen for me to progress further in the game.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8736940

Just scroll down at whatever speed you'd like and see the annoying large, bolded, all capital, red font.

[nydushermain]

I just noticed we have a day left. Sorry for being gone most of the day.

@mod: can we get a quick VC?

[nydushermain]

Just scroll down at whatever speed you'd like and see the annoying large, bolded, all capital, red font.

Relevance?

I thought maybe you were being annoying as town, repeating the same thing over and over again. Ego searched you, you do it as scum too so nope, my scum read on you from before still stands.

[nydushermain]

Give me time

If you really are town, we don't have much time. 24 hours and the clock is ticking.

[nydushermain]

I asked for 17 examples

Theory talk

I'm ego searching you because people trying to be this intentionally annoying usually end up being town. If you've done this as scum,

even once in 100 scum games

, this vote is firmly planted for the rest of the game.

I stopped searching after scum game #1.

Scumreads come to you, you don't go to them

Then are you saying you're just voting people for the hell of it? -_- please hop on this wagon. Even if he flips town, he's not going to be of any use.

[nydushermain]

Then are you saying you're just voting people for the hell of it?

He didn't actually say that, though

also aren't you assuming that he's town by asking this question?

No?

[nydushermain]

Then are you saying you're just voting people for the hell of it?

yeah the more I think about it the more I think this might be a slip. If town!nyd legitimately thought N_M was scum, his assumption would be that N_M's votes are meant to push mislynches. By assuming that N_M has no reason whatsoever for his votes, you're also assuming that he's part of the uninformed majority.

I have 0 clue how you think this is a slip. My assumption is that NM is most likely scum, or useless town. Both good lynches.

[nydushermain]

Then are you saying you're just voting people for the hell of it?

yeah the more I think about it the more I think this might be a slip. If town!nyd legitimately thought N_M was scum, his assumption would be that N_M's votes are meant to push mislynches. By assuming that N_M has no reason whatsoever for his votes, you're also assuming that he's part of the uninformed majority.

By assuming he has no reason whatsoever for his votes, I "could" be assuming that he's scum who just voted on people with zero reasons because either he hates playing the alignment or doesn't know what he's doing as it. Don't push me on something NAI.

[nydushermain]

the point is that if you truly believed that he is "most likely scum", then your default assumption would not be that he is "voting people for the hell of it".

@Titus

gimme a VC

Uhh no. Look at his previous posts.

VOTE: Hiraki
VOTE: Towns Last Hope
VOTE: Lycanfire
VOTE: GuiltyLion
VOTE: TierShift
VOTE: Alisae
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Martha Zolanski
VOTE: Pepchoninga nydushermain

VOTE: Lycan
VOTE: Martha
VOTE: GL

Regardless of his alignment, he's voting for the hell of it. Literally. The only vote he probably made with some sort of intent was the OMGUS vote on me which if he's town, he doesn't even believe given

I'll unvote you if you unvote me

that quote.

[nydushermain]

1) You're assuming the votes in 168 have no reason whatsoever

2) I don't think scum

can

just "vote for the hell of it". They already know who is scum and who is not. Their wincon is to stay alive and lynch enough people outside of their faction to achieve majority. Therefore, if you believe that someone is scum, that belief should be accompanied by another logically-consequent belief that they want to steer lynches towards people who are not on their team. But you implicitly assumed that N_M legitimately had no reason to vote the way he did at all, which reads to me like you might already know that he is uninformed about people's alignments.

Perhaps that's true and he did have an ulterior motive in all of his votes. You're trying to push your belief that "I don't think scum can just vote for the hell of it" applies to me believing the same thing. I've seen chaotic scum who have voted on whoever based on RNG, who have voted everyone who was under suspicion (including partners), etc. Maybe your game experiences have had mafia with a purpose but look at how NM is playing. If he's town, he's doing nothing helpful. If he's scum, he's playing chaotic mafia.

[nydushermain]

N_M but not as a matter of instinct in the way that I'm talking about though!

My point is that nydush's instinct was to imply that N_M had no reason for his votes. My argument is that a natural town thought process would look like this:

axiom: "If someone is scum, then they are voting from a place of knowledge" (A->B)
belief: "X is scum" (A)
Therefore,
conclusion: "Therefore X must be voting from a place of knowledge" (B)

and I don't see that thought process in his post. Townies don't have to actively work through the logic or be convinced to get to B, they just land there naturally because that's how a rational brain works. But nydush is completely missing B when he questions "are you voting for the hell of it?". Either he was downplaying how much he actually thinks N_M is scum, or nydush never believed N_M was scum to begin with.

if that axiom is not like universally shared among all players then we can debate that, but to me this makes sense.

I can see where you're going with this but trust me when I tell you, I'm town and whatever you're reading into is wrong.

[nydushermain]

If it'll ease your mind, just vote me but drop the topic of whatever slip you think I've made afterwards because all it's going to do is push town in the wrong direction.

[nydushermain]

@mod: since the VC is so confusing, can whoever gets lynched have a twilight post as well?

[nydushermain]

Did I miss someone in my reads?

[nydushermain]

Also, you remember the game where I was actually scum TS? I went hard on the active players and ignored the inactive ones... one of the being you, and the other being RC on d1. I ignored the fuck out of jack, fykus, etc. Maybe meta reads are bad but you not having any memory of my actual scum play when we literally just finished a game together when I was scum is baffling.

Using meta based off 1 game is the number 1 worst thing I see decent players using

I'm caught up and I still think that TS is scummy. I think that what he is pushing NM on is NAI and calling him a backup lynch after saying

VOTE: Martha Zolanski

Don't at all like the shade throwing/"analysis" at the end there. And the defensive "my vote was rvs" when nobody asked about it

agreed though but you don't think nm is a scummy scumfuck?

is shady as fuck. He should also know how I play scum since we both lived until the end in the game where I actually was scum. This is like a total 180 (I think).

You realise I have not put effort in until now?
Why do you feel that I should be able to read you perfectly after one scumgame?

I don't think you should be able to read me perfectly after one scum game but when your only reference point of my game play is one in which I actually rolled scum, and literally finished like a week ago should give you at least a modicum of understanding of how I would play as scum. Even if meta is a bad way to read players, and I do think that it is, I think that meta does bring some sort of bias into how people read others.

[nydushermain]

So you are justifying your lazy play by showing how you have played scum differently?

No I'm saying you should be using it as a reference because it's fresh in your mind if you're town. I'm not justifying my lazy play at all other than saying that I was busy because of IRL stuff that took priority but I'm no longer busy.

[nydushermain]

I think TS v NYD is TvT.

We'll see...

[nydushermain]

However, it does personally feel like he has some sort of agenda. His town read on TLH was just as lazy as my initial scum read on him.

Why does it feel like I have an agenda?

I can just state a townread btw, don't have to explain it to hell and back.

It feels like you townread TLH because they were going on me and it feels like your push on me isn't natural. The agenda would literally be you townreading someone who scum reads me in order to push a ML onto me.

[nydushermain]

I have no evidence btw, because like I said, it's just a feeling. I don't actually think that it's AI which is why it didn't come into my scumread on you.

[nydushermain]

do people not realize that EoD is like soon?

[nydushermain]

VOTE: lycan
i would compromise on this completely pathetic slot

What makes lycan's slot more pathetic than NM's? Lycan has 20 posts, NM has 29 but NM's is mostly filler posts. On another note:

NM is my backup lynch.

So your compromise instead of lynching me, who I presume to be your top scum read is to lynch someone who is just inactive who you don't really have a read on instead of someone who is ALSO inactive who is your second scum read?

ANDDDDDD we're back!
VOTE: TS

Also reread your ISO, found out that you didn't say anything about single votes which was what I thought was the towniest thing you said all game (which you didn't actually say so sucks for you). Did find this though:

Okay guys, I'm back. I still want to kill Tiershift the mostest but I think that NM is also a good lynch. I think that there's 1 scum in there at most because of how TS went on NM but I think they're both pretty scummy.

TS: the reason he went on NM was because he thought that NM was pretending to not realize that he was hammering? That's BS and not really a scum tell because NM definitely could have done it as town. There's no indication that it was a scum tactic.

NM: still not a fan of how he reacted after the hammer. I would think that a town would be apologetic and at least existent somewhere after killing a town member

I'm just quoting this again to show how EXTREMELY lazy this is. NY can read into arguments better than this. He just avoids everything going on and votes for two inactive players.

You're not even calling me scum, you're just leaving it open ended in case it goes south and I end up being town read.

[nydushermain]

I really think that TS is scum after his vote on lycan. It makes ZERO sense to me at all.

Also, I read guiltylion's interactions with me as townie but the more I think about it, the more off putting it is that he's unwilling to actually plant a vote on me. I think that his hesitation could be scum not wanting to be on a town lynch at the end of day. I think that if town!lion genuinely thought I was scum, especially after the so called slip, (since he had enough of a read to post a mini essay on it), he would've just voted. I think what he's doing right now is potentially just posturing.

{nyd, lycan}
{Hiraki, TLH}
{N_M, Tier}
{Martha}

is where I am at

He says that martha is his top scum read.

UNVOTE: Martha

not sure what the vote count is but I can do this for now, my immediate take here is that I don't like how nyd is suddenly recycling stale points about Martha

nyd I want you to talk about Tier's most recent push on you, do you think it's scum motivated and why or why not?

Unvotes because he's unsure about my push on martha because I may potentially be scum?

I am aware of deadline and will be active throughout the day. I think N_M may be my preferred lynch after all but it's less of a bona-fide scumread and more of a default lynch which is annoying

Claims to want to lynch NM as a "default lynch" but not because of a scum read.... when martha is his top scum read? This is pure posturing, open ended lynching, etc.

[nydushermain]

I have very little town reads this game, but I think I'm going to forget about what I said about hydras being hard to read because I can't be so dead wrong right? I'm putting TLH in the town list because they felt townie to me anyways but this is probably going to be my weakest.

Town

Hiraki
TLH, Lycan

Scum

Lion, Martha
TS, NM

[nydushermain]

If I am the lynch today, I would like the scum reads in post 383 to be my twilight because I don't think we're guaranteed a twilight post. My town reads I'm not 100% confident on and are subject to change but those are my nono lynches for today.

[nydushermain]

getting this out there before thread lock.
GuiltyLion might be scum.

Honoring Alisae's twilight.

[nydushermain]

also the thing with Martha is I feel like she's town because so many people are (somewhat inexplicably) townreading her, which usually means there's a scum who is trying to pocket the mislynch for later or not get caught making a bad push. I think I saw someone refer to it one time as "town by townspew"

If you're town, I think that when there's very little scum in the game, I think that the reason you're giving for potentially town reading Martha is a bad one unless you can make a list of literally everyone you think could be potential scum and you see every single one of them town reading Martha in a very scum-town interaction kind of way. Also, explain to me this:

If you think that she's town because people are townreading her, which means that there's a scum trying to pocket the mislynch for later, why did you feel the need to unvote right when I voted for her?

[nydushermain]

Town

Hiraki
TLH, Lycan, Lion

Scum

Martha
TS, NM

[nydushermain]

VOTE: lycan
i would compromise on this completely pathetic slot

What makes lycan's slot more pathetic than NM's? Lycan has 20 posts, NM has 29 but NM's is mostly filler posts. On another note:

NM is my backup lynch.

So your compromise instead of lynching me, who I presume to be your top scum read is to lynch someone who is just inactive who you don't really have a read on instead of someone who is ALSO inactive who is your second scum read?

ANDDDDDD we're back!
VOTE: TS

you realise it's like 14 hours to deadline? What do you think of the lycan slot? I'd also be fine with a NM lynch I think.
VOTE: nm

Okay guys, I'm back. I still want to kill Tiershift the mostest but I think that NM is also a good lynch. I think that there's 1 scum in there at most because of how TS went on NM but I think they're both pretty scummy.

TS: the reason he went on NM was because he thought that NM was pretending to not realize that he was hammering? That's BS and not really a scum tell because NM definitely could have done it as town. There's no indication that it was a scum tactic.

NM: still not a fan of how he reacted after the hammer. I would think that a town would be apologetic and at least existent somewhere after killing a town member

I'm just quoting this again to show how EXTREMELY lazy this is. NY can read into arguments better than this. He just avoids everything going on and votes for two inactive players.

You're not even calling me scum, you're just leaving it open ended in case it goes south and I end up being town read.

No I actually scumread you (past tense), now I'm not 100% sure where I stand

nah okay nydush is town

it's not posturing, I legitimately don't feel certain about what I want to do today

Why is nydush town for these posts I just don't see it.

I feel GL is just egging on. GL could realistically be scum since I don't see his inquisitive tone much here

Yes so why do you say that you're okay with a lycan lynch over an NM lynch at that moment when you said that NM was a backup lynch? Surely if you were okay with just lynching anyone who was inactive, you would've just said that lycan was your backup lynch from the get go.

You're saying that you're not sure anymore of what to think of me, meaning you once scumread me and now found reasons to potentially call me town (am I right in this assumption?) so you're questioning it. Then, you say you don't see how GL reads me towny now when YOU TOO are questioning your past scumread on me because I'm not as scummy anymore to you?

Also, do you know what you do when you're unsure on someone? You unvote. And why is NM, the person who was your backup lynch someone you're "okay with I think" ??

[nydushermain]

You're saying that you're not sure anymore of what to think of me, meaning you once scumread me and now found reasons to potentially call me town (am I right in this assumption?) so you're questioning it. Then, you say you don't see how GL reads me towny now when YOU TOO are questioning your past scumread on me because I'm not as scummy anymore to you?

No I just don't know

Lycan and NM are both shit this game and I don't really have a preference atm

Then why did you feel the need to point out lycan specifically?

[nydushermain]

We have 8 hours and I have a midterm tomorrow so I'm 100% going to be asleep during the deadline. Can we get a consensus? I'm also okay with an NM lynch but I really think TS is scummier than him now. It could be NM just being scum but not saying enough to really be out there, whereas I think TS is saying scummy things left and right.

[nydushermain]

Hello?

[nydushermain]

That post I promised

My original comment may not have been scum indicative

but we had nothing to go with, and it was definitely strange, so I ran with it. I feel like nobody really tried to push me off this. Both GL and Hiraki questioned me, but I don't feel like either have tried to explicitly push me away. Tiershift isn't doing it either, his reasoning is that I'm talking about one thing. That's not a push, that's fishing for a read.

I'm discounting splitscum, and the wagon looks worse than offwagon.

Offwagon isn't being opportunistic with my argument. An offwagon team would only question and not push me away if they thought I would tunnel this. Which I think is ridiculous because I wasn't going to and I doubt any one here knows me better than I know myself. That's out.

Meanwhile the wagon shades/refuses to engage me. I'm happy lynching in TLH|NM. VOTE: NM

What does this mean?

[nydushermain]

^ The bolded part. I still opt for a TS lynch pleaseeeee over NM

[nydushermain]

I don't see how someone can look at nydush's post today and find those scummy, so you're gonna have to sell me on that one

Regardless of TLH's alignment, I'm pretty sure they just dropped by for the EoD and rehashed their old scum reads. I doubt they read the last couple of pages with much attention to detail tbh.

I wish people were actually here though so that we could've talked more about lynching TS -_- . I don't think it's fair that Martha has been gone for 4-5 days. If Martha's scum, that slot probably dodged a lynch out of absolute inactivity.

[nydushermain]

Can we all agree that if we hit scum on lynch # 1 today that we go to sleep?

VOTE: TS

[nydushermain]

Can we all agree that if we hit scum on lynch # 1 today that we go to sleep?

VOTE: TS

Yes

This is mylo we might be a little bit more careful with our votes

For real can everyone unvote?

I will have time for this game on tuesday probs

I'll be careful if it actually becomes MyLo.

UNVOTE: TS

I think we actually need to talk and discuss though. I'm specifically talking to lycan, hiraki, and TLH (off the top of my head), people I've had little to no interaction with because we're clearly on completely opposite tracks.

[nydushermain]

And what do you want to discuss? How about your read on; hiraki, lycan, and also why you want to lynch ts

Ehhh you're not really caught up yet I guess... I'm actually dumping all my town reads because I'm pretty sure I'm reading people town for bad reasons. I would have put hiraki and lycan as town though on day 1. As for my reason for wanting to lynch TS, I have a scattered list of what I think are scum tells from him throughout the end of day 1. If you want a tl;dr, it started off with him reading NM scum for what I thought was completely NAI and just theorycrafting. Then, he started scum reading me for playing as "the perfect townie" which was baffling because, as we had literally just finished a game together where I was scum, and that's totally not how I play scum.

His scum read on me boils down to what I think are two things:
1) My scum read on him and NM; he thinks I'm pushing some sort of agenda because I "targeted" the inactive players (which is actually because those were the only two really involved in the events I remembered since I wasn't fully caught up)
2) I was the perfect townie?

I don't think for him to vote on me, saying that my scum reads are incredibly lazy and that I'm playing as the perfect townie are enough to warrant him placing his vote on me and saying that NM is the backup lynch when he stated before that NM was a scumfuck. There's a lot more as well but if you need it, I can go back in time.

[nydushermain]

I think you're town Nydus, but I also think there's not much to be gained from pressing Tier right now, even if you feel like he should have had a better impression of your townplay.

I don't like how Hiraki's reads have developed from what is a cut and paste from day 1. TLH refuses to answer what they thought the composition for the Alisae wagon was. They had a gross interaction day 1 and despite feeling like they have more presence, they seem lazier than Tier. That's suss.

I agree with hiraki maybe not being as towny as I thought. Also, that's why I unvoted on TS.

I think that both you and TLH are suffering from not reading the thread enough. TLH asked you what question you were asking. Regardless, do you think it would be alignment indicative even if TLH knew what the question was and decided not to answer?

[nydushermain]

^ Because I think it's not that important of a question as it's just theorycrafting at this point so I'd personally find it unimportant to answer regardless of my alignment.

[nydushermain]

It's weird that I find myself nodding along with nydus's description of his scumread on me. It's exactly what I've done. The only parts I view differently is that
1. I don't think 1 scumgame is enough to get any sort of feel from
2. I did feel nydus pushing an agenda warranted lynching him over nm

So nydus, do you think it's implausible we actually disagree on these points?

Do you think there are other things that make me scum?

1. I think that one game isn't enough to say "I have a meta read on this guy now" but definitely enough to have a feel for something. It wouldn't have really been scummy for me if we hadn't literally just finished a game together. I think that a townie has at least some sort of bias, even if they're trying not to let them influence them. In this case, it seems like you haven't even considered it at all which I find scummy.

2. We may disagree on these points but that doesn't make you town?

3. Other things that make you scum I've already listed in past posts. If you really need, I can find them for you or just restate them in a tl;dr

[nydushermain]

Nydus i can prove that I really don't think one game is enough to read someone off of if you want me to
If we disagree your read on me has to do with us disagreeing rather than me being scum. Why are you not considering me as town at all? As a possibility?
Yes please quote the othrr things that make me scum

As for hiraki and lycan avoiding me, well I haven't paid muvh attention to that but now that somebody mentions it I would like their reads on me especially hiraki's who has been very vocal about others but not about me

I actually asked proposed "either you can search my ISO or I can quote them for you" as a test to see if you wanted to put any effort into the game but I've fallen into my own trap and may be too lazy to quote them . I'll do a half assed job of it later but I still find your vote on lycan over NM quite scummy. It felt like you saw a potential mislynch in me because TLH had voted for me, and I think TLH seemed townie and was definitely the most active at the time and I was inactive. Then, when I came back and spat fire all over your push, you had to find someone else so you scrambled and voted on lycan when you should've, at the back of your mind, had NM. I feel like that doesn't seem like a townie mindset, granted I'm posting as if you're confirmed scum. If we step back and just think about you as neutral, you called me scum and voted on me, and said NM was a backup lynch after having called NM your top scum prior to scum reading me. Then, later in the day, you vote on lycan and not NM until I ask you where your NM scumread went.

I have considered you as town, otherwise I'd be spending an awful lot of time trying to make teams that include you. I also thought you said something townie but looked back and it ended up being alternative memories. I think that you think that my scum read on you is only based on you scum reading me this game when you saw what my actual scum game looked like in another game. That's not true. That's part of it but I think that other things point to you being scum as well. Namely, the part about lycan I pointed out above, as well as your push on NM which I thought was based on something NAI. I also don't like the way you're handling my push on you. It doesn't feel authentic/genuine.

[nydushermain]

Also, I think that the lack of activity in this game, as well as lack of interest (or so it seems to me) will lose us the game. I reset my town reads because I feel like there's not actual enough content to read anyone truly town for and no one is giving me a reason to change my mind.

[nydushermain]

prod dodge

[nydushermain]

Waiting for people to respond to me btw

I've responded to you. So did the other dude.

[nydushermain]

Not completely up to date. Not gonna lie, kinda lost interest when it felt like people didn't really care during EoD.

[nydushermain]

I think I trust tlh in this game

Tlh where do I vote?

likely scum within lycan/hiraki. maybe not both. Could be guiltylion or nydush.

You know you just listed everyone alive other than the person asking the question right?

[nydushermain]

reminds me a lot of this post that scum!Dunn made in a Newbie we played together

Uh, I'm not controlling other people to make them not read the game when I'm scum if that's what you're trying to piece together. If somebody hasn't read the game I'll call them out on it, yes.

why didn't you just re-ISO and figure out what the question was yourself when Lycan first said "TLH hasn't answered my question"?

And why didn't you do it for me? I didn't want to/couldn't understand

Do you disagree that it looks like he hasn't read the game?

Seriously GL how about you go into more detail on how 242 and 136 in that other game link together as something scummy?

Response to all three of these:

the thing is, not reading the game isn't inherently scummy, people miss things. It's also funny that you say you didn't want to figure out Lycan's question when that would require you to

read the game

so when you snark at Hiraki like he could be scum for not reading the game, it reminded me strongly of how you did the same thing as scum in that other game, where it's presenting something that could possibly look scummy -on the surface- but isn't at all really, a way to coast and look involved without having to actually sort. I have come around to thinking Hiraki is town. So your pushing on him looks bad to me, especially when you do it over things that I

know

you know aren't alignment indicative.

all that said I'd still like to lynch Lycan first and foremost

I think that's an interesting statement because with Lycan, you said that you don't think he genuinely believes in his Hiraki push which is why he's scum (maybe this is what you're saying? I'm running on low sleep) but with TLH, you say you KNOW for a fact that they are pushing Hiraki for something that town!TLH would know isn't alignment indicative. You're putting a feeling/tone read to call Lycan scum higher than a logic based scum read on TLH? I feel like you should have things flipped with TLH being scummier than Lycan for pushing on Hiraki if the reasons you've stated are indeed the reasons for scumreading Lycan. That being said, little sleep so I could've misinterpreted something or misread somewhere.

[nydushermain]

I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.

[nydushermain]

I think that's an interesting statement because with Lycan, you said that you don't think he genuinely believes in his Hiraki push which is why he's scum (maybe this is what you're saying? I'm running on low sleep) but with TLH, you say you KNOW for a fact that they are pushing Hiraki for something that town!TLH would know isn't alignment indicative. You're putting a feeling/tone read to call Lycan scum higher than a logic based scum read on TLH? I feel like you should have things flipped with TLH being scummier than Lycan for pushing on Hiraki if the reasons you've stated are indeed the reasons for scumreading Lycan. That being said, little sleep so I could've misinterpreted something or misread somewhere.

I see what you're saying here but I think invented scumreads are more likely to have no real belief behind them than a logical belief that doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Sometimes town might do something TLH is doing and push something NAI because they think it applies in this scenario or something, but town rarely (if ever) has a late game scumread that's totally surface level and barely explained.

TLH's response hasn't been so great though.

Also that Tier replace out makes him lock-town IMO. No reason a scum!Tier would feel the need to replace, I think.

In the game we were playing before, he suffered from a concussion and his activity dropped a lot. Could be health related.

[nydushermain]

What do you think of Hiraki/TLH interactions Nydus?

I don't honestly think much of it at all. I mean, I can say that I think it's not super likely for them to be together because of the EoD vote from one of them onto the other when we were trying to scramble and try to find someone we could agreeable lynch but even then... I don't think it really rules them out completely. Dunno.

[nydushermain]

I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.

you're pretty much lurking, but I don't blame you

Am I lurking? I have the top post count in this entire game

[nydushermain]

I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.

you're pretty much lurking, but I don't blame you

Am I lurking? I have the top post count in this entire game

Why aren't you voting anyone?

Was waiting for you to replace in. I'll have to decide what I think about you.

[nydushermain]

VOTE: Michael

[nydushermain]

If TLH flips scum, we sleep I believe.

[nydushermain]

If not, well... good luck to us