Open 670: Near Vanilla (Over)

[Sesq]

At first glance, I'm thinking it could be Magna, MB and haph, just off the top of my head.

[Sesq]

Hap is my top tr after Toto what makes you sr hap?

kinda guttish, idk. his previous aliases didnt really convince me toward town. i'm def not very sure on it

However, with the claim and stuff, no doubt Magna is scum, and MB has been lurking the whole game.

[Sesq]

I knew the fact that everyone kept saying "I sr Magna" but never voted him ever was fishy as hell

This is a pretty bad point usually, as most people had someone they scumread more.If Magna didn't have the doctor shit I'd most definitely be voting him

[Sesq]

I knew the fact that everyone kept saying "I sr Magna" but never voted him ever was fishy as hell

This is a pretty bad point usually, as most people had someone they scumread more.If Magna didn't have the doctor shit I'd most definitely be voting him

It was more empty comments of just placing it there. Without any push as in to just put it for towncred when it flips.
What do you think of BBT given Magna is scum

Well, I was decieved too. I'd have to re-read.

[Sesq]

It's also the relative lack of content

[Sesq]

It was posts like 306, 310, 884 that made me think they weren't partners when I originally read them and it was those rather than the later posts that I was thinking of when I wrote that. But there's other posts like 885 that could be either coaching or buddying so they could just have been distancing.


But while going through their ISO's to check that I spotted this:

Riley Cake - acts in a way that's kind of... well, an act. Probably someone's alt, I don't really care.

She's a friend on Discord, me and a few others told her about this place. I don't want to say anymore as I don't want game stuff ending up there at all.

In the first quote Sesq is trying to disassociate herself from Riley. In the second she admits knowing her. I don't see any reason for her to do the first unless they are both scum.

I was being dismissive because of outer-game stuff regarding Riley's status as an alt. I can confirm that is the case, but I didn't want to say it at the time as they were uncomfortable with it.

This is entirely due to external factors.

[Sesq]

Also, shouldn't we be trying to find associative tells with Magna (if possible)?

[Sesq]

Magna derailed your wagon to Lowell's.
Riley said she would hammer if you got to L-1.

As for the first, I was actually refusing to get on Lowell's wagon if you remember, and when it was at L-1 I was like heyyyy slow down.

As for the second, I don't see how that says anything other than they scumread me...

[Sesq]

But if she scumread you why didn't she vote you instead of just promising to?

I've seen this point used multiple times in this game and every time it's been bullshit, for one simple reason: People can have multiple scumreads, and sometimes there's someone you scumread more. Also, this intent to hammer was on day one.

Also, even if this is a good point on her, how does that make me scum?

This isn't "refusing to get on Lowell's wagon". If anything it's giving slight encouragement to it. And in 1139 you were "definitely leaning" scum on him. You said you were uncomfortable with it but I didn't see any refusal.

What else would "I don't feel comfortable with this, everyone should move over to nebula" mean? If I were scum, what reason would I have not to go on Lowell's wagon?

[Sesq]

I don't agree with the associative tells (528 actually makes more sense with 402 rather than the opposite which Music Box implies) but I agree with the end-game. D1 reeked of scum v/s town.

Vote: Sesq

My alternative is Hawk - no chance you'll get my vote on Riley.

MY GOD PLEASE PUT POST TAGS AROUND YOUR NUMBERS

Also, what end-game do you agree with? We're in the middle of it right now. Also, you can't just say something "reeks" of x (in this case, scum vs town) without evidence. Well, you can, but it's stupid.

Magna derailed your wagon to Lowell's.
Riley said she would hammer if you got to L-1.

As for the first, I was actually refusing to get on Lowell's wagon if you remember, and when it was at L-1 I was like heyyyy slow down.

As for the second, I don't see how that says anything other than they scumread me...

You really should be able to see how scum you would say things like that about lowel's wagon once it reached l-1.

We can sit here and discuss how we wont have conclusive evidence about how you are scum but you really need to start proposing alternatives instead of just defending yourself. You are not scumhunting. Why?

No, I really don't, unless they were on the wagon themselves, which I was not.

Also, the reason I'm defending myself is because I'm getting bad arguments thrown at me. I'm going to defend myself. As for scumhunting, I've already pointed out that we should be looking for associative tells with Magna, as he's the only confirmed scum right now. Could have also been a case where I thought I remembered saying it, but didn't, but regardless I'm saying that now.

[Sesq]

Based on associative tells and Magna's activity levels with each person, Music Box and Riley stood out most. Kind of on Hawk, too.

[Sesq]

MY GOD PLEASE PUT POST TAGS AROUND YOUR NUMBERS

No.

Also, what end-game do you agree with?

That he is scum.

Also, you can't just say something "reeks" of x (in this case, scum vs town) without evidence. Well, you can, but it's stupid.

I'm done with your holier than thou complex this game and forever frankly.

What's your case on Hawk?

Read.

When I said "end-game", I meant what time period were you referring to. The rest of this post is anti-town as hell.

[Sesq]

Based on associative tells and Magna's activity levels with each person, Music Box and Riley stood out most. Kind of on Hawk, too.

Provide evidence

Yeah, even with minimal explanation there was more to be explained here. Basically what I was seeing from MoI was very minimal surface-level engagement with MB and Riley. If you ISO the three of them together, there is almost zero engagement between the three. It's rather disturbing.

ISO 63, 64, 72, 79

Doesn't help when you have these as well from MoI ISO: 7, 8, 28, 45, 52, 54 - gonna quote this just to push this a little harder:

This is one of the first empty MoI is scum drops that I want to see more about …

Why is it “reasonable” for there to be one scum in two players? I’d like to see your line of thought for this.

USE. POST. TAGS. PLEASE.

Also, just saying "look at dese post!" doesn't really cut it. It's like leaving a pile of evidence at a courtroom with zero explanation expecting it to speak for itself. Also, not sure whose ISO the first line is pointing at.

[Sesq]

I'll look into Riley with that in mind tomorrow morning.

Sesq is my best guess at mafia #2 right now. From the associations with MoI, a few things stick out:
1) MoI throws Sesq a ton of soft-ball questions and interacts with him a fair amount.
2) A lot of the time MoI spends "defending Sesq" is more actively discrediting suspicion on Sesq, rather than calling Sesq town and providing independent reasons for town-Sesq.

I also think a Hawk/Sesq team works very well, given the post I analyzed above. Hawks' whole "I think Sesq vs. Neb is SvT for ????????? reasons but voting Nebula" reads like Hawk knows that the wagon is SvT, but can't really provide good reasons for thinking that. The vote on Nebula is a pretty convenient choice given the situation.

I didn't scumread him because he didn't have any scummy things in his posts, outside of the doctor claim. Associative tells go both ways.

As for associative shit, it makes me kind of skeptical on Hawk as there due to his interactions with Magna (in fact, an early vote on Hawk was placed seemingly without the wagon being a thing.)

MUSIC BOX AND TOTO!!! Dontcha think it's wayyyy to early to say I'm scum because i'm partners with Sesq when Sesqy hasn't even flipped yet?? THAT'S JUST SILLY!!! You'll find yourself barking up the wrong three!!!!

No, but Magna has, and there's links there, kinda. 1385 confuses me.

[Sesq]

Also, even if this is a good point on her, how does that make me scum?

It doesn't necessarily. That part was more about Riley than you.

What else would "I don't feel comfortable with this, everyone should move over to nebula" mean? If I were scum, what reason would I have not to go on Lowell's wagon?

Maybe you thought it would look town? Or were still hoping for a Nebula lynch? I don't know what was in your mind there but to me it looked like you were nudging the wagon along.

At the end, I was very much against a hammer on him. I still leaned scum on him, but I wasn't that confident. Also, I don't really care about self-image as much as I do about finding the people who are murderers.

Hey guys I'll catch up in a second. I'm town don't throw our ML away on me because you guys will be in a world of hurt tomorrow if you do that.

Hapa I understand my logic was very poor and my reasoning wasn't solid. Unfortunately as town I have a very bad habit of second guessing myself mid post and so my analysis comes off very lack luster. Just check here in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=69733. I have similar problems d2 when I have a good feeling about scum bussing and then second guess myself and end up leading town down a mislynch. It doesn't help things compound later that led us to a f3 where me, one other town read player and a confirmed townie are stuck and we lose because of sloppy play on my part.

Honestly I'm not sure where scum are and need to revalue. I was fairly certain Nebula was scum d2 but I was trying to be open minded that maybe Sesq and Nebbie were both town because it wouldn't have been the first time I was fooled by TvT.

I can't tell if this is terrible defense from town or scum. It almost feels TOO terrible to be coming from scum...

Hikari you have been pushing Sesq all game why change now?

Because a Sesq lynch isn't happening today but a Hawk one will.

This feels really scummy, but Hawk does too... hmm.

VOTE: Sesq
The hard defend from Magna makes Sesq look like scum

The scum team is in sesq/music/riley for me

Or he wanted to get a quick lynch on nebula (whom he knew was town, and must have thought was easier to ML) by hard-defending me, because if you had more people going after me, there would be less people going after him. Also, in the case that he died, he could have planted that in order to guarantee me a lynch. He planted down that apparent doctor claim, after all.

Yeah. So my point is that a Hawk ML doesn't really tell me anything, while a Sesq ML tells me Neb and Sesq were TvT and tells me a lot of what was going on D1.

So if it is just between Sesq and Hawk, I'd rather lynch Sesq today. That said, I think it is important we take it easy today and try to let everyone participate a little bit. We have 12 long days ahead before we need to make a choice.

Well, I already know for a fact that was TvT happening D1, and as for how it's impacted my reads, it made me realize that scum... well, I don't know. Were they all going against nebula or some against me? While Nebula's play was ultimately worse, I think there are a few good points about me, but those are almost always derived from me being not very good at this game.

... probably doesn't make Sesq scum, but is requires a lot of very careful reading to pick out. Stuff like this makes me think he's actually looking through filters carefully rather than just forcing suspicion on a player.

MB is also hard to pair with a scumbuddy. MB/Riley is the only team that I can piece together with MB in it, and I really don't have evidence to call Riley scum. I think Sesq/Hawk is much more likely.

I don't think picking stuff out necessarily makes you townconf, Magna felt like he was delving pretty deep into the logic of things. Also, mislynches look more appealing if you have "evidence" to back it up.

[Sesq]

Sesq, I see you suggesting that people are suspicious, but you aren't really providing any conclusions.

Who's mafia?

I don't like to put a definte finger down (RE: nebula) but right now I'm saying it's 2 out of Hawk, Riley and MB.

[Sesq]

As for why, mostly on associative tells. I'm most confident on Riley, there wasn't much interaction between them save for light shade and Riley being like MAGNA TOWN WOO on one readslist in a rather dismissive way. As for MB, again, not much interaction between them and Magna, also seems like they lurked through most of the game, or at least were in the background of things actually going on. Hawk... now there was more stuff going on between them, so I'm more skeptical, but his recent dismissals of allegations against him (and him ignoring them in the past I believe) places him pretty solid.

[Sesq]

Riley why are you voting Hawk? What do you think about sesqs case against you?

Riley, mb, hawk, and sesq who is quiet today. At least 2 of you are town. You need to start participating in the conversation so we can you out. Scumhunt a little biy.

What about NK stuff? That hasn't really been brought up as a whole since Magna flipped scum.

[Sesq]

Yeah, I can't decipher anything from these NK's, they mostly seem to be scum killing the most inactive townies. BUT. BUUUUUUT. Riley feels like they would be an inactivity kill, but they weren't...

Sesq, I see you suggesting that people are suspicious, but you aren't really providing any conclusions.

Who's mafia?

I don't like to put a definte finger down (RE: nebula) but right now I'm saying it's 2 out of Hawk, Riley and MB.

Not putting a definite finger down is one thing, but it seems like you're throwing suspicion around.

Like in one of your more recent posts, you call a post by Hiraki scummy:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8902444

But if you have actually read Magna's filter and have been digging for associations as you suggest, it should be pretty clear to you that Hiraki and Magna make very little sense as partners.

Good point on that Hiraki post, I wasn't paying attention as much to associative tells then. The post's tone felt like it was a predetermined plan at the time but in hindsight it doesn't really hold up very well.

[Sesq]

UNVOTE: Hawk
VOTE: Sesq

I read some of Hawk's town games, and I'm not at all convinced. I think that awkward post I pointed out can come from town-hawk.

Regardless, I keep coming back to Mafia Sesq no matter how I draw up the teams. Sesq has also been generally active today, but not really trying to solve the game. It feels like he's peddling suspicion more than actually trying to find mafia.

In reality, I'm sort of stuck. I'm really waiting for Riley to get back and post some sort of defense, and the third scum is becoming less clear as time goes on (probably Hawk or MB). I tried analyzing the night kills but didn't see anything out of that. Am I the only person not doing active scumhunting here?-

[Sesq]

@hapahauli: I've had two town games and one scum game. Have you read those? Also, how could Hawk not be awkward scum here?

Also, isn't it funny how nobody has voted Riley yet? Hmmm. VOTE: Riley Cake

Inb4 I am accused of deflection; first of all that is not my intent, it is to hold others to standard if they are indeed unable / are avoiding actively scumhunting. Even if this is the case, I fail to see how deflection is a scummy tactic. I realize that I have used that as ammo against people in the past, and that was stupid. When you have such accusations thrown against yourself, you are much more inclined to deconstruct the concepts and question why they are things people are read upon. I believe the scummiest actions are those that seem to have a hidden agenda behind them, and I believe this should be the basis for scumhunting. If I'm just to construct a scale of people based on suspicion of outside agendas. Toto and hapahauli are the only entirely solid townreads for me while the rest are hard to place on the sliding scale of suspicion. However, we have a scum confirmed, that being Magna, and due to associative reads it makes Riley and MB look like possible candidates, with Hawk being a possibility as well.

I don't know why I rambled this out, but I have a lot to think about with little to react to.

[Sesq]

HOLY SHIT. I just found one of the most potentially scathing associative tells from Riley's first post, 78 (I know you asked for reads outside that, but this is really juicy)

So in part of that post, they're saying it's bad to vote nebula, which is definitely something to take to account, and then this is said:

" I think the people voting nebula are probably scum trying to kill him, so that's bad and we should vote them!! Not the first person though!! It's probably the first person was just an INNOCENT PAWN who started the wagon and the people who sheeped them are scum!"

Guess who the first person on nebula was? Magna. And in their very first post Riley's trying to cover their ass. This is rich. The two people after riley on that wagon were Lowell and BBT, BOTH of which have died and been confirmed town.

This is amazing and I'm surprised nobody has caught this yet.

Reading on in Riley's ISO, she quickly flips onto Nebula (despite denouncing said wagon earlier), throwing a lot of shade onto me, hard-defending Magna, including this:

"magna is great ^_^ I like magna's post a lot!! they are logical and their avatar is really cute and just makes me want to snuggle it!!! eeeeee!!!!"

Now, as it's been mentioned I kind of know this person, and they would not find Godzilla cute and cuddly. They would not. She also provides a gut town read on Lowell (all this at 795, and then jumps on his wagon with zero hesitation. 1136

1830 wait whAT. Considering the out-of-nowhere-ness of this post I think it was maybe her trying to redact the obsessive Magna-defending, but very weakly. The recent random vote on Hawk has me thinking he may not be scum, but I don't know.

So that's my Riley ISO read-through. I might do it with MB later.

[Sesq]

@hapahauli: I've had two town games and one scum game. Have you read those? Also, how could Hawk not be awkward scum here?

Also, isn't it funny how nobody has voted Riley yet? Hmmm. VOTE: Riley Cake

Inb4 I am accused of deflection; first of all that is not my intent, it is to hold others to standard if they are indeed unable / are avoiding actively scumhunting. Even if this is the case, I fail to see how deflection is a scummy tactic. I realize that I have used that as ammo against people in the past, and that was stupid. When you have such accusations thrown against yourself, you are much more inclined to deconstruct the concepts and question why they are things people are read upon. I believe the scummiest actions are those that seem to have a hidden agenda behind them, and I believe this should be the basis for scumhunting. If I'm just to construct a scale of people based on suspicion of outside agendas. Toto and hapahauli are the only entirely solid townreads for me while the rest are hard to place on the sliding scale of suspicion. However, we have a scum confirmed, that being Magna, and due to associative reads it makes Riley and MB look like possible candidates, with Hawk being a possibility as well.

I don't know why I rambled this out, but I have a lot to think about with little to react to.

My issue with you up until now was that you have been "present" throughout the day, but your contributions haven't matched up with your activity. For example, being suspicious of Hiraki earlier makes it seem like you weren't really reading Magna's filter, yet you portrayed yourself as looking through Magna's filter quite a bit for associative tells.

That Riley catch is interesting. I'll look into it further tomorrow morning. If you're town, please keep this effort up.

I wasn't thinking about associative stuff when seeing Hiraki's post. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

[Sesq]

AND SESQ IS WRONG!!!! She says I'm an evil MAFIA MEMBER for not yelling at magna... BUT I DID THAT COS MAGNA'S POSTING LOOKED LIKE TOWN!!!! grrrr!!! Just cos I was wrongsies doesn't mean I'm evil!!!

It's not for not yelling, it's for going out of your way to defend him early on and having little interaction with him. I will admit it may be possible you are town, but with how you played it's very likely you got a red PM.

Also, isn't it funny how nobody has voted Riley yet

THAT'S COS I'M TOWN!!!! GRRRRR!!!!!!!!

No it's not. That's never the reason, as we don't know.

Now, as it's been mentioned I kind of know this person, and they would not find Godzilla cute and cuddly. They would not. She also provides a gut town read on Lowell (all this at 795, and then jumps on his wagon with zero hesitation. 1136

MAGNA'S AVATAR IS A CUTE AND CUDDLY CARTOON MONSTER!!!! IT'S CUTE!!! >_______< besides, are ya saying, I'd find godzilly cute if I was scum?

AND THE LOWELL THING WAS COS THEY SCUMSLIPPED!!!! THAT WASN'T MY FAULT!!!!

Oh yeah, I just realized I don't think I've ever seen you give a shit about NK's in thread. Just kinda came up in my thoughts.

As for this quote, while you may indeed like Magna's avatar, it's really weird you pointed that out, ESPECIALLY with him. With Lowell, it obviously wasn't a scumslip, as he wasn't scum, but merely mistakes and weirdness. You jumped on the wagon, that magna started, with zero hesitation. Not good.

[Sesq]

If I were scum with riley, why would I be making the first move on her?

Seriously, you guys are ignoring everything I've brought up about her thus far and are just forming her reactions to get a scumread on me (currently the largest wagon), which makes me think scum are on my wagon right now. I think scum are pushing me for the same reason they were pushing nebula, because a lot of people's reads depended on them being scum, and their townflip lead to town being kind of lost, and I'd argue their intent is the same here. Then again, this hypothesis might be a bit too much formed by my own perspective, but I think it's important to bring up. Oh yeah, and if I am lynched, you're going to be in LYLO. Not Good.

Fucking. Push. Riley. Sorry I'm kind of angry, but I've actually been able to do some helpful scumreading for once, which isn't something I'm particularly skilled at, and people are trying to push partner bullshit.

PUSH. RILEY.

[Sesq]

Thanks.

Two things: First, is it possible that scum are just buddying me in order to try to get me lynched? Riley is smarter than she seems, I know her outside of this game.

Second, if people are going to try and say me being angry = scum, no. I was scum in Mini Normal 1857 viewtopic.php?f=53&t=69351 and I was very reserved and calm.

[Sesq]

If I were scum with riley, why would I be making the first move on her?

Seriously, you guys are ignoring everything I've brought up about her thus far and are just forming her reactions to get a scumread on me (currently the largest wagon), which makes me think scum are on my wagon right now. I think scum are pushing me for the same reason they were pushing nebula, because a lot of people's reads depended on them being scum, and their townflip lead to town being kind of lost, and I'd argue their intent is the same here. Then again, this hypothesis might be a bit too much formed by my own perspective, but I think it's important to bring up. Oh yeah, and if I am lynched, you're going to be in LYLO. Not Good.

Fucking. Push. Riley. Sorry I'm kind of angry, but I've actually been able to do some helpful scumreading for once, which isn't something I'm particularly skilled at, and people are trying to push partner bullshit.

PUSH. RILEY.

To buy Riley town cred if we flip you today? to buy town cred yourself if we flip Riley and she's scum? To push a mislynch cause your real partner is Elena? like there are lots of possibilities where scum you shoots at Riley first Sesq.

I'm not ignoring your case against Riley. I'm just more confident you are scum than Riley is. I'm fine lynching either or of you today but I would definitely prefer you over Riley.

Sesq if you think Riley is scum and you are town then who is Riley's partner. What possible thing did scum gain from MoL chainsaw ingredients you all day one pressing Nebula and then Lowell.

Why would scum willingly sacrifice one of their own for towncred, especially now, after that possibility has been pointed out? Also, if I were scum, and I lynched Riley, and she was scum, tomorrow wouldn't be LYLO, so that would be a really stupid plan.

Also, why would my partner be Elena? You're throwing this up out of nowhere and I find it suspicious.

As for who I think the second partner is, I think it's either you or MB, I'm not sure. However, there's enough associative evidence between Riley and Magna that I'm pretty damn sure Riley is indeed scum. I think reactions today and tomorrow may tell well.

Also what does "chainsaw ingredients" mean? If you're wondering why Magna pushed Neb for a while and then switched to Lowell, I kind of already explained why but I'll go through it again, basically I think scum saw that Neb, Hiraki and my wagons weren't really going through before day end, so Magna preyed upon Lowell for play that can generally be seen as scummy so that people from both sides could converge on it and get him lynched. I think it was the safest move from their perspective.

Also, why do you think I'm scum?

First, is it possible that scum are just buddying me in order to try to get me lynched? Riley is smarter than she seems, I know her outside of this game.

Who apart from Riley are you saying is buddying you? And how would buddying you help to get you lynched?

When I said scum here I was referring to Magna and Riley, and it seems pretty damn obvious why, because if it looks like there's an associative tell there you're going to vote for it (me on riley)

[Sesq]

Also Riley, why didn't you address my point about your blatant early-on Magna defense?

[Sesq]

Ingredients is because my phone likes to correct chainsawing to that. Also upon review of the early game knowing who was town that have died and that Magna was scum it seems fairly obvious Magna was chainsawing for you the whole time pushing Nebula otherwise at some point I'm sure Magna could have flipped onto your wagon. Are you saying that scum were on your wagon when you were L2 so that Magna or at least the other two couldn't flip onto you? you were L-2 for almost the entire day. If I was scum you really don't think we could have misLynched you if you were town? Riley was even scumreading you then flips to town reading you for the rest of the day despite listing plenty of good reasons to scumread you d1.

I'll be honest if Riley flips scum I'm more inclined to believe that you are Riley partner and not MB. MB was very quiet d1 and sat on you all game long, so long in fact he didn't even jump on the Lowell wagon. So yeah PoE for me is that

I'm town, Strong townreads on Toto, MB, Hapa.

Scum in Riley, Sesq, Elena.

And I really don't think Elena is scum either so yeah... like I said before I'm okay lynching you or Riley. If we lynch Riley today fine. If she flips town I want your head on a pike tomorrow whether I'm alive or dead.

I really would feel better if we lynched Sesq today tho guys. Riley is almost obviously tied to MoL Sesq is tied to them both if you take into consideration MoL chainsawed for Sesq and Riley not only was dropping mad associatives with MoL but also refused to vote Sesq unless it was a hammer.

I don't know what chainsawing is either, but I'll try to answer your other questions.

"Are you saying that scum were on your wagon when you were L2 so that Magna or at least the other two couldn't flip onto you?"

Umm... I don't understand this question? I don't really know where this is coming from at all, you are extremely difficult to follow, but if you're wondering where I think scum was in terms of wagons, I know Magna was on neb, riley I think switched back and forth a bit, third scum I'm becoming more confident is you (although in terms of associative reads it doesn't necessarily fit well with Magna), and I don't remember what side you were on. I don't know.

Also, you left a little scumslip there, when you said "the other two" scum... don't you scumread me? Well, based on your language and weak case on me and weak defense on yourself, I find you highly suspicious.

"you were L-2 for almost the entire day. If I was scum you really don't think we could have misLynched you if you were town?"

the use of "we" here... I can't tell if scumslip or confbias, I'll let others input. As for the actual point of people going on my wagon, I think riley was there, and so were you, and magna was attached to me like a leech that entire day and it would have made zero sense from a town standpoint for him to flip over, so he didn't. I'll have to look at that day more.

"Riley was even scumreading you then flips to town reading you for the rest of the day despite listing plenty of good reasons to scumread you d1."

Again, this is a reason to scumread riley, not me. Stop diverting attention from your scumpartner.

Also, congratulations on the baby, I never told you that :p

[Sesq]

Shit, well a lot of that post regarding Riley looks dumb now considering your recent action. Scumslips still valid.

[Sesq]

Riley, gutreads are not OK this late into the game. I can understand it kind of based off me being angry, as my scumplay isn't angry, but that's really not enough.

I feel like you're buddying me to set me up for a mislynch.

[Sesq]

No, that's not what I mean. Gut reads are basically hunches; or as I like to sometimes refer to them, logic you can't quite put to words. In one game I had an extremely strong gutread on someone from their first post alone that was near-unshakeable and that person turned out to be scum (I was killed day one)

Regardless, at this point in the game it's really no justification if you can't explain it. Also your "no way youd move off me" sentiment is one I find kind of troubling...

[Sesq]

Oh yeah, and when I say "buddying", what I mean is someone who is scum trying to build a fake associative read with a town member in effort to get said town member lynched later on. That's what I think you are doing.

[Sesq]

No, that's not what I mean. Gut reads are basically hunches; or as I like to sometimes refer to them, logic you can't quite put to words. In one game I had an extremely strong gutread on someone from their first post alone that was near-unshakeable and that person turned out to be scum (I was killed day one)

Regardless, at this point in the game it's really no justification if you can't explain it. Also your "no way youd move off me" sentiment is one I find kind of troubling...

BUT I DID EXPLAIN IT!!!!

Not with actual logic.

[Sesq]

It's kind of shit though.

[Sesq]

When I said scum here I was referring to Magna and Riley, and it seems pretty obvious why, because if it looks like there's an associative tell there you're going to vote for it (me on riley)

I thought you were claiming multiple scum were buddying you toDay, that's why I asked.

Nope, just Riley to my knowledge.

Also riley, stop nebbing the game. (That's a word now meaning flooding the thread with illogical trash.)

[Sesq]

Riley's post on TRing Sesq isn't scum aligned.

I'd disagree

[Sesq]

Is it possible that Me and Nebula are both town, and that scum decided to push nebula more as it was the more reasonable-looking lynch?

[Sesq]

Well, shit... I'm kinda in a dilemma. The evidence seems to stack against me from an objective viewpoint, and I'm assuming that I'm going to be lynched today, so I'm just trying to think of other theories of why things turned out against me as they did, because I am just completely dumbfounded. At this point I'm considering self-hammer just so that it can be confirmed that I'm town and you can start to construct your theories more accurately, but then we'd be in LYLO, and while I do think you'd probably end up lynching scum that day, what about the next one? I don't know.

Maybe if someone smarter than me can start spinning off some theories from the starting point of me being town, as illogical as it may appear. I would suggest starting tomorrow AFTER i'm conftown, but you may end up losing a valuable thinker overnight, so it might be better to risk it and start now.

I'm probably getting lynched for this post, I realize

[Sesq]

Wait... Sesq were you ever at L-1 D1? If you were pull it up because the VC's don't reflect it and I need to know who had you at L-1 and who was off the wagon still at that point. It's extremely insightful if you do in fact flip town today.

Also MB I got a question for clarification from your ISO if you would.

I was never at L-1, to my belief. At L-2 for quite a while.

[Sesq]

Sesq was only at L-1 for two hours from when Toto voted her in 442 to when he moved his vote to Hiraki in 459.

Why did you keep flipping between Riley is partnered with Sesq and not. Particularly considering this back and forth back and forth in a 17 post timeframe..

I already explained this in 1537, which you quoted, after Toto asked me about it. There was no back and forth. I originally thought that they weren't partners but by the time I wrote 1474, echoed in 1520, I thought they might be.

Well, you're paying better attention than I. That said, you haven't analyzed the wagon then... hmm.

When I was at L-1, we had the following people on my wagon:

BBT (town), LUV (town), lowell (town), hiraki (town), mb (undetermined), nebula (town), toto (undetermined).

[Sesq]

It should also be pointed out that the other major wagon that day was town, and had 4 votes on it, them being

sesq (town), magna (scum), hawk (undetermined), and riley cake (undetermined).

On the wagon in that general timeframe was also Toto and KAINTEPES!!!, the former undetermined and the latter town

[Sesq]

Why did you keep flipping between Riley is partnered with Sesq and not. Particularly considering this back and forth back and forth in a 17 post timeframe..

Who makes more sense to be disorganized with their thought process, scum or town?

I think town is more disorganized as they legitimately don't know who scum is and are trying to figure it out before everyone dies, while scum doesn't have that. They're more conflicting than disorganized, however this feels much more conflicting than disorganized. Could still be town, i'd have to look further into this.

[Sesq]

I didn't ask you, thanks.

Doesn't matter. The more opinions and perspectives the better. The only time you should reject such a thing is when that person is confirmed scum (via death), and even then not always

[Sesq]

Sesq, your wagon analysis doesn't include an actual analysis. What's your conclusion based on the facts?

Good point. That said, I don't really have one. Is there really much to go off of there?

BBT (town), LUV (town), lowell (town), hiraki (town), mb (undetermined), nebula (town), toto (undetermined).

Why is Hiraki town?

Editing mistake. He's "undetermined" obviously

[Sesq]

I think there may have been one busser. I really want to keep my options open, as I feel like that third guy is going to be the one I rule out early on.

[Sesq]

Hiraki, do you have other scum reads other than Sesq&Hawk? what's your read on MB?

MB is null tbh. Pretty confident that one of Sesq and Hawk is scum, if not both. If it's not there, I'd be looking into Elena/MB.

Why avoid Riley?

[Sesq]

2. If Sesq is town I don't see why MB taking such Parallel reads as Magna. He could have sheeped onto Nebula.

3. Hikari for similar vein.

Hmph.

Wouldn't scum want to take different sides to fuel more fire in TvT, and also distance themselves?

See, this is what gets me going, there seems to be equal reasons for scum to be either entirely on neb back then or split amongst him and I. That entire school of thought really isn't getting me anywhere (Riley still looks pretty scummy, though.)

[Sesq]

It felt like Magna didn't go as hard on Hiraki as he did on nebula, despite the latter possibly being even more egregious, and we know nebula is town...

[Sesq]

Also, why are you excluding Riley?

[Sesq]

Hiraki has been acting strange but I just think he's wrong not scum

I got that impression to, but his total dodging of Riley, instead of dismissal, is something I find to be really scummy.

[Sesq]

Hiraki has been acting strange but I just think he's wrong not scum

Cool that's what I'm thinking too.

@Hikari follow up question if we're not voting Riley and you think Sesq is scum, excluding me since I am town who is Sesq's partner from the remaining. (eg. if me and Riley are green who's red with sesq)

Well... what if he thinks it's you? Even if you are really actually 100% town, which I am not sold on, you're still asking for his opinion who a certain person is, that certain person potentially being you.

[Sesq]

that really isnt good enough reason hikari

your initial avoidance i also find really suspicious

[Sesq]

Yeah, but if they lynched me that fast everyone would suspect them, especially Magna who had been defending me up to that point

[Sesq]

i'm pretty sure all of lowells wagon was scum. i saw an opportunistic hop by riley in there, the third probably did it just out of it being a good position

[Sesq]

Hikari did vote sesq upon entry.

Magna was saying that nebula is scum and sesq is town.
Hiraki said neb was town and sesq was scum. He sounded very certain abouth both.

Music just said that he didnt want to vote nebula today, and voted sesq instead. That was the l-2 vote.

Hawk, not to say that your conclusion is wrong, but you seem to make too many assumptions about how scum will play and how coordinated they actually are, specially on D1. That narrow thinking looks a bit forced. Have you ever played as mafia?

Not on this site nope.

Are you saying you think Hikari could be scum and Sesq town? I mean yeah sure I make a few assumptions but is there a simpler solution than Sesq is scum, MoL chainsawed for him, Riley is associative with MoL and Sesq that's my scum team?

I am slightly concerned the longer this day goes on the more wary I'm becoming of a Sesq lynch flipping town and putting us in Lylo because at that point I'm very uncertain if we could back to back lynch.

Yeah, I think we're overcomplicating it. However, it seems to be pretty clear by association that riley is indeed scum. Can we just lynch her today, and and if you still want to lynch me tomorrow do that? It feels like we can mostly agree on Riley here.

[Sesq]

No no no!!! I said before that it's cos I can't find anyone I feel goodsies 'bout lynching, so I just use POE!!!!! I TOWNREAD EVERYONE ELSE SO I WANNA LYNCH HAWK!!!

I wanna know why everyone seems to not care about music box!!!! I'd rather lynch him over sesqy!!!!!

"There's noone I feel good about lynching except for hawk"

"id rather lynch mb over sesq"

VOTE: Riley Cake

ive done this already but it needs to be restated you cant even keep your own continuity within posts

you're worse than lowell (he got his reads weird from one post to the next ) and he got a flash wagon for it, where is everyone wagoning Riley? Maybe you've just learned not to do that, which I commend, but this is obvious scum at this point.

[Sesq]

The MB Read still came out of nowhere

[Sesq]

There's not much good into dragging this day out much longer. Let's get on with this game.

VOTE: Sesq

This is the game as I see it.

I don't think Riley is likely to flip mafia here.

Her play looks "bad", but doesn't make a lot of sense from a mafia perspective. For example, it's so easy for her to jump on Sesq and end the day. Yet she comes in and town-reads him, making herself look bad in the process. I don't see mafia taking such a wild, attention-seeking opinion that's directly against their own interests and makes themselves look bad.

It is plausible but unlikely that Sesq and Riley are a mafia team together. I'd expect a more coherent strategy. It doesn't make a lot of sense for Riley to be hard defending Sesq, and Sesq to be hard-attacking Riley if they're scumbuddies. It's not a natural strategy or interaction for two mafia buddies to have.

Nothing I've seen from Sesq has improved her slot in my eyes.

No no no!!! I said before that it's cos I can't find anyone I feel goodsies 'bout lynching, so I just use POE!!!!! I TOWNREAD EVERYONE ELSE SO I WANNA LYNCH HAWK!!!

I wanna know why everyone seems to not care about music box!!!! I'd rather lynch him over sesqy!!!!!

"There's noone I feel good about lynching except for hawk"

"id rather lynch mb over sesq"

VOTE: Riley Cake

ive done this already but it needs to be restated you cant even keep your own continuity within posts

you're worse than lowell (he got his reads weird from one post to the next ) and he got a flash wagon for it, where is everyone wagoning Riley? Maybe you've just learned not to do that, which I commend, but this is obvious scum at this point.

Hiraki pointed at this earlier, and I think this is pretty damning. Town lynched Lowell on the basis of these same "inconsistencies", yet Lowell flipped town. It doesn't make sense how town can use the same rationalization to lynch another player despite the history of this game. At the very least, the Lowell evidence shoudl give a townie pause, yet to Sesq, it is fuel on the "lynch-Riley" fire.

I think this is a sign that Sesq isn't interested in finding mafia, and just interested in pushing the Riley mislynch as far as it can go.

"I don't see mafia taking such a wild, attention-seeking opinion that's directly against their own interests and makes themselves look bad."

[Sesq]

The hypocrisy, he debunks Riley's claim for being too stupid for mafia, and then reads me as mafia for saying something that would be a "wild, attention-seeking opinion that's directly against their own interests and making themselves look bad."

And about him saying it was "directly against their own interests", in what way?

My point with Riley is that she was having issues keeping continuity within HER OWN posts, while Lowell couldn't do it across 2, yet people weren't wagoning Riley so fast. While Lowell was town, the moves Riley has here are scummier than Lowell, who was town. That doesn't mean they're town. Basic logic.

[Sesq]

We're lynching me or Riley today, and it looks like the former is going to happen. As I said, we'd be in LYLO. If we aren't lynching Riley today, you're doing it tomorrow. Lynch. Riley.

[Sesq]

WAIT

I was focusing more on the fact that I got put into L-1 then Hiraki's bullshit vote. You don't put anyone into L-1 without explaining yourself.

[Sesq]

Are you really saying I haven't explained myself?

Not enough to put someone into L FUCKING ONE

[Sesq]

i got told who it was after i died

and i was like "OMG NOBODYS PAYING ATTENTION TO HAPA REEEEEEE"

even though it should have been someone I called out

[Sesq]

I still retain the belief that nebula was intentionally trolling the game.

[Sesq]

what was your thing with that account?

really

[Sesq]

i know