Open 643: Kill All Townies! (Game Over)

[Ranger]

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty}
{Bellaphant}
{LicketyQuickety}

[Ranger]

{karnos, hiplop}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty, Smithereens, Kop, pistachi0n}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

[Ranger]

Sometimes I forget opens are filled with newbies.

[Ranger]

Explain these lists, please.

No.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

[Ranger]

I also know she thinks scum spend more time prodding at them than town

Not so!

There's just town ways to do it, and scum ways to do it.

This way, especially given LicketyQuickety's experience of me, makes me think it was the scum way.

[Ranger]

Ranger has there been any change in your reads since last time?

One or two.
{karnos, hiplop, Smithereens}
{JaeReed, Charloux, Kuroi}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty, Kop, pistachi0n}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

You're going to have to provide some evidence for your read on me m8.

I really don't.

[Ranger]

Ranger can you give me the summary of why smithereens is so high please? Or still too early?

To be perfectly honest, it's a super-strong sudden gut read that I can't really explain. I can't really put that into words.

[Ranger]

I would say you are banking an awful lot on your reputation.

I bank on my reputation every game, so explicitly so, yes.
(I mean, burden of proficiency's still a fallacy, but that doesn't mean I refuse to use my reputation to my advantage.)

[Ranger]

MOD: V/LA for today, maybe tomorrow.

Don't have the time to post today, probably will have the time tomorrow but may not, circumstances depending.

[Ranger]

Now i understand how Rangers reads also count as reaction tests!

<3

I really think house is scum

So do I, but LicketyQuickety is still scum too.
{karnos, hiplop, Smithereens, JaeReed, Charloux}
{Kuroi, pistachi0n}
{Creature, Almost50}
{Chip Butty, Kop}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

[Ranger]

(and it has to be tonight because I am sure she is dying tonight regardless of alignment).

Well, I am gonna die tonight since there's no town doctor, but devil's advocate, the only way I'd die N1 as scum is if we lynched my faction's doctor or if I was in fact my faction's doctor.

But this is true enough. Last multiball game, I nailed both scum and for my trouble ate the N1 nightkill as scum.

I have to admit, I've placed you in my top-tier for town, but I'm not absolutely sure you're town. It's more like you have

such

a good grasp of me, and where I'm coming from, that you'd be breaking my heart if you were scum.

...Also, pretty sure you'd get nightkilled too. :P

I'm doing this for mine and to see how far off the mark I am when/if she does explain it.

As hinted above, you're scarily close.

@Ranger when you get back... What did you think of these parts of Bella's post?

Well, Bella's still low on my list. I think she's not the highest-priority lynch. She seems to have some content which is good and looks to be scumhunting, but I think there is a very significant chance she's scum.

[Ranger]

Haha yeah, tbf ranger's put me low on her town reads when I'm town when she's town and scum, though!

I don't recall placing you low when I was scum except as your scumbuddy.
Which, mind you, is why you ended up being low in all the other town games. :P

{karnos, hiplop, Smithereens, JaeReed, Charloux}
{Kuroi, pistachi0n}
{Creature, Almost50, Chip Butty}
{Kop}
{sad}
{Bellaphant, DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

The Kop, sad, and Bellaphant tiers may need some adjustments. Hopefully found in the following five pages.

[Ranger]

Ranger's posts have been completely null to me.

It's multiball.

Multiball

.

You don't need to read me.

Like, at all.

I'm dead.

Like, no matter what, I'm a corpse before the end of the game.

[Ranger]

Towny lynch response.

You would say this.

You would also not be correct.

[Ranger]

Reads is not scumhunting.

But...but...
;_;

</3

I idolize Ranger.

<3

...Yet...

VOTE: Ranger

:(
</3

Plus she played with LQ in one of the games he linked where he was town so she knows in advance that he comes across as scummy when town.

The only town game I have with LicketyQuickety is when he was a hydra, with Titus. I was also a hydra. To be blunt, I don't think LicketyQuickety and I have had a game where we've shared the same alignment.

[Ranger]

Ranger hasn't been contributing nearly as much as she has in the town games I've played with her.

I'd lie and say it was because of real life (well, that wouldn't be a lie, so much as a half-truth, half-lie), but to be perfectly honest, you're right.

There's a reason I'm playing this way, too.

Feel free to speculate, but this isn't something I'm going to tell you.

LQ you must not have known that Ranger was V/LA either... :\

I find it hard to believe he'd miss it.

[Ranger]

Why would I get nightkilled?

For your role being "Backup Ranger".

The full package: lots of good insight, but also a decent amount of people thinking you're scum.

I still get nightkilled with that combo, so you--having it--could die N1 too.

Karnos, Jaereed and Charloux are not all town together or I'm a monkey's uncle.

Enjoy your new name.

[Ranger]

If ranger told you to walk off a cliff...

...It would probably have some sort of netting to break the fall, calibrated such that the innocent would land on it fine but the guilty would plummet through.

[Ranger]

I think you're buddying me and I don't want it to stop Q.Q

Uhhh...would it make you happier for me to say I am buddying you, or I'm not buddying you?

:P

[Ranger]

why the hell did you even join?

Well, for a start, sometimes, scumteams are stupid enough to

not

nightkill me N1, so I can play longer. (Sometimes.) Then you get into the fact that one day is

plenty

long enough to nail most, if not all, of the scum. That's reason enough to join.

[Ranger]

Who's Ira?

This is not the first time Smithereens has mixed up opens.
{karnos, hiplop, Smithereens, JaeReed, Charloux}
{Kuroi, pistachi0n, Chip Butty}
{Almost50}
{Kop, Creature}
{Not_Mafia}
{Bellaphant}
{DixC}
{House}
{LicketyQuickety}

[Ranger]

Ranger Have you checked LQ's tone in his scum and town games compared to this game?

I tend to only venture out to games I haven't personally been in when I have a lot of free time, so no.

[Ranger]

Are you still convinced you're going to die tonight?

I don't recall saying I would.

But in my experience, my rate of mortality is directly correlated to my rate of annoyance to the scum. So it really depends on just how annoying I am to them.

[Ranger]

still, why are you so emphatic that you're dead?

I dunno, it's a subject in the thread so it's a subject I talked about?

I'm pretty sure I wasn't the one who started the discussion.

[Ranger]

I do know her reads aren't perfect, but hey it's d1, who's reads CAN be?

Where does your confidence in my competence come from?

[Ranger]

I am skeptical that you are as good as you claim, but I'm extending you the benefit of the doubt because I've been away for a while.

And I'm asking why you're giving the benefit of the doubt in the first place.

[Ranger]

Ranger, why are you such a threat to scum if you have no interest in a player's overall playstyle and habits?

Because first-hand experience usually makes for a very seriously powerful teacher, second-hand experience is...not entirely worthless, but means very little in the grander scheme of things.

Errr my wiki has nothing? I'm new.

Jae proves themselves not to be the biggest possible Ranger fan ever with this, btw.
If Jae were, then--like me--Jae would update it usually on a daily (or at least weekly) basis!

<3
(Speaking of, I do need to update it, but I've been so busy that it's been on the backburner. Project for this weekend, after all my other duties are fulfilled, I suppose.)

I don't think ranger has the spare time to research other people's games.

Pretty much, yeah. I've sometimes had it, but don't right now. (And when I did, it didn't do me a lot of good anyway.)

[Ranger]

I don't think I have anything to say at the moment, sorry.

[Ranger]

VOTE: DixC.

[Ranger]

I don't really like these wagon choices.

DixC isn't exactly my first choice especially with this company, but would you rather JaeReed? They're town, they'll flip town, and their wagon is bad.

[Ranger]

Mod: feeling a bit under the weather

(didn't post yesterday because of it),

so V/LA today, maybe tomorrow

, depending on how long it takes to recover.

Sorry.

[Ranger]

Oh!
Quick reminder specific to this game before I go:
Remember, guys,

we have TWO lynches today

, because two town died at night.
So, whatever you do,

do not wait until deadline to lynch!

We've got 16 days by the deadline counter. So, ideally, we should have a lynch in mind every FIVE DAYS. Two extra per lynch for comfort, but

we should not take longer than one week to lynch someone

. If we do, kiss that second lynch goodbye, or watch as we speed-lynch a player who'd never get wagoned otherwise.

[Ranger]

Also,
VOTE: LicketyQuickety.

[Ranger]

Why are you doing this?

It's simple.
My wincon is to kill scum.
And you, my friend, just so happen to be the Alpha Werewolf.

Ergo, you need to be lynched.

[Ranger]

And for what it's worth: I'm four-for-four on my reads so far, so I would appreciate being sheeped on this. LicketyQuickety is scum. I want him lynched.

but we have plenty of time.

Very careless attitude to take. We have to fit TWO lynches in that time, not one. The deadline's a little generous, down to 15 days now, but I still want a lynch within the next 4 or 5 days, preferably LicketyQuickety.

[Ranger]

And yes, I want his lynch within that timeframe, so that we have those final 10 days to decide on a second lynch, at minimum. This is for good reason. If he were town, then it would be good info to analyze the wagons in relationship to his. (He's not, of course, but it'd help.) As he happens to be scum, it'll further narrow down the scumteams and reveal who they are a lot more clearly.

Trust me on this.

[Ranger]

And yet, he's not the person we're lynching the first half of today.

Talk to me after we lynch LicketyQuickety.

[Ranger]

In short, Ranger's lists in this game are looking like what I would expect from scum!Ranger.

I repeat.
Talk about this AFTER LicketyQuickety flips.

What does a scum Ranger look like in the first place?

Hell if I know! Here's a complete list of completed scumgames.

Spoiler: In approximate chronological order

1. Blitz 1, C9++, first scumgame.
2. Mafiaception, contemporary Blitz 1. I had some real-life problems that contributed to not doing well.
3. Blitz 7.
4. Machina Mafia.
5. Blitz 25.
6. Mexican Standoff.
7. Masons and Mafia (Barely a scumgame at all since I wasn't in it until all my scumbuddies were dead and they quicklynched me.)
8. Pick Your Power X/Y (in spite of the loss, third-best scumgame).
9. Firebringer's Marathon Game.
10. Newbie 1692. JK9++, second-best scumgame largely thanks to RC.
11. Diffusion of Power, best scumgame.
12. Buzzfeed UPick.
13. Near Vanilla. (I was experiencing troubles that game for life-suck, not alignment-indicative, reasons, so it's up there with Mafiaception for worst performance from me, for similar reasons too.)
14. Anime UPick Pack A.
15. C9++. (Similar to Near Vanilla, life suck interfered with the game.)
16. Friends and Enemies and Enemies.
17. Setup UMake. (Barely a game at all; I got a role that was literally designed to lose the game for the mafia, because...I had designed it myself, with the intention someone else would get it.)
18. Carbon 14. (Nobody did much of anything that game, at all.)
19. Literally Anything UPick (probably one of my better games, but I was post-restricted to be kawaii).

[Ranger]

I'll share with you all a secret though:

maybe a Town at the bottom.

You're right.

There is one town player in the bottom of my reads.

Exactly one.

Because I have six living scumreads, for five living scum slots.

[Ranger]

{hiplop, Smithereens, Charloux}
{pistachi0n, Chip Butty}
{Almost50}
{Kop, Creature, Not_Mafia, Bellaphant, DixC, LicketyQuickety}

^This is what my reads look like now.
Well, not exactly, but close enough.
Like I said. There is one town in my bottom tier, because I have six scumreads for five slots.

I was gonna wait to say this until after we had lynched LQ, but I suppose there's no harm in saying it now.

Your job isn't to say who to lynch, and who to not lynch. Your job is not to say who is scum.
Your job is to tell me which name is the town name in the list, and which of the scum players you most want dead. (If you're in the list, you're arguing for yourself.)

For me, it's LQ. I actually have thoughts on which read of mine might be wrong, but first, I want LicketyQuickety lynched, and second, after that, I want to see what others say of my list here before I reveal it.

[Ranger]

^Just to clarify:

For me, it's LQ.

Obviously by this, I mean LQ is the name I most want dead, with one player being the one I find most likely to be town of my scumreads.

[Ranger]

Why such specificity here?

Because I rolecopped him, duh.

[Ranger]

Statement stands.

[Ranger]

Spoiler:

[Ranger]

They are joking about the rolecop, which means they didn't really answer my question though.

Nonetheless, my statement was accurate. LicketyQuickety will flip Alpha Werewolf.

Because she is Scum and tripped up saying I couldn't be Mafia.

This would be valid on D1 with no flips.
It's not D1.

I haven't fully diverged my scumreads into scumteams yet, but I can start today.
And you, my friend, are a werewolf, and more specifically, the investigation-immune alpha werewolf.

[Ranger]

Well, the fact there IS a seer in the setup with no CC or even a hint of one for starters.

You know...I

was

gonna let the seer comment slide, because that would make me good NK bait allowing the real seer to survive, but.

If there's a risk of the real seer thinking I am claiming seer, and therefore feeling the need to counterclaim, I absolutely need to shut that line of thought down.

I am not the seer.
I was not attempting to claim seer.
I was okay with people

assuming

I am the seer, for obvious reasons, but I'm not okay with the actual seer thinking I was claiming seer.

[Ranger]

Ranger--since you are not claiming an investigation, why are you sure that LQ is the alpha werewolf specifically?

I'll tell you after he's lynched if it's that important for you to know.

Until then, I don't see how revealing why I know would do any good.

[Ranger]

Ranger, if you really are Seer and actually think I am Alpha WW, I might just be blacklisting you.

I already said I'm not.

But I have very strong reasons to want you dead anyway.

I think you're full of shit.

Well, nobody's perfect.

[Ranger]

It's posts like that ^ which explain why Ranger is the source of so much attention.

Indeed they are.

It's called "scum don't like that I'm right about them and am refusing explain how I nailed them".

[Ranger]

you've done very little to prove your townieness.

I've no need for that.

Plus, MY record speaks for itself.
I was adamant JaeReed was town.
karnos was in that same top-tier town.
Kuroi not far below.
I also had House as my second-strongest scumread, second only to you.

What's yours say?

I think you do need to explain your reasoning.

After the lynch.
Not before.

but it would be more convincing if you explained your specific claim, i.e. Alpha.

That's the role he's going to flip. It's that simple. I feel no need to explain this until he's already dead.

[Ranger]

My reads say I'm willing to reevaluate my reads on people, unlike yourself.

What's there to reevaluate?
My reads have been RIGHT.

I will continue treating them as right until I see something that suggests they are wrong.

Nothing I have seen thusfar has suggested as such.

[Ranger]

(but you'll need to explain this one either way, my friend).

I promise I will.

I'm operating under a very specific view of the game right now.

But I absolutely need that LicketyQuickety lynch before I can say anything further.

[Ranger]

What possible reason could there be for not explaining you read on me? How has my play this game been pushing a Scum agenda?

I actually do feel bad for pushing this, believe it or not.

But instead of this being a case where I can answer and am choosing to flat-out not do so, this is a case where it would be extremely detrimental for me to answer so I cannot.

Remember, and this is to everyone:

We have a double-day.

After the first lynch, we get a second.
Which means, after we get the flip of the first player, we have time and the ability to flip a second. And this is why I want an LQ lynch as soon as possible. I can explain everything after the first lynch.

[Ranger]

In the mean time, LicketyQuickety, a quick tip:

Town players about to be lynched do what JaeReed did and try to give FULL reads on ALL the players.

[Ranger]

By the way, free piece of advice to the vig (or werewolves, I guess): Kop is mafia.
I'm not

quite

omniscient enough to tell whether he's the goon or the godfather, but with the mafia doctor dead, he's free for the shooting.

If you need evidence, I advise you to iso him and look at his only contributions to the game.

This is another thing I could have revealed later, but I don't see much harm in saying now.

[Ranger]

Also, hiplop and DixC are both not mafia.

This is as much as I'll be revealing before we get a lynch, though.
You already know my scumreads are within the pile {Kop, DixC, LicketyQuickety, Bellaphant, Not_Mafia, Titus}.
I've stated Kop's mafia, and LQ as alpha werewolf, plus the above nugget of information.
The full hand I'm holding back can wait until after a lynch.

[Ranger]

Oh heck with it.
I have poor impulse control, and I isoed shotty (the Titus slot).
VOTE: DixC.

So a more detailed post will have to wait, but I'll give you some of the highlights.
I started today legitimately thinking LicketyQuickety was the alpha werewolf. Werewolf, because I didn't think his interactions with House were on the same scumteam, Alpha, because his level of visibility made sense as being the alpha: doctor could keep shots off of him, whereas his high-profile would attract investigations to clear him.
I wanted his flip, because if he flipped werewolf, it would clear DixC: DixC was pressured by the mafia, and also by LicketyQuickety. If LicketyQuickety was instead the mafia godfather (again, high-profile play, only in this case on the same scumteam as House. Note that I have not ruled this possibility out), then DixC would be the player the mafia strongly thought was werewolf.
If LicketyQuickety was town, obviously, this would mean DixC would be a werewolf as well.

Now, Kop is obviously mafia. His House read says as much, among other things.
And I'm not quite sure on who the third could be. It's not hiplop (who is town). It's either {Not_Mafia, LicketyQuickety}. One of them is town, the other is mafia.

What I'm saying indirectly here is that {Bellaphant, Creature/shotty/Titus, DixC} are the werewolves team, and since we have a dead mafiate (and the mafia doctor, no less!), we should be lynching for the werewolves.

And I no longer think LicketyQuickety is one. I'd direct you to shotty's readslist in 807 for a start. (Note that it's scum-to-town.) Bellaphant's in the top-tier, DixC the second-top-tier. There's more, from Creature, from Bellaphant, from DixC, but all of them were individual scumreads and all of them have these associations which tie them together and make me want to pursue this instead.

[Ranger]

Hmm...
Actually, want to do this instead.
VOTE: Titus.

[Ranger]

Tell me the world in which I am teamed with Kop and DixC.

What I said was that you aren't with DixC, period.

[Ranger]

How long have you known I was Town?

I haven't.
Still don't!

But I began to suspect I may be wrong about my assumption after the heavy interaction with you.

Later tonight, after other site duties are done, I'm intending to give the full version. It'll take a while to write.

Also, need to know why you keep pushing the hiplop slot as Town, given his ISO.

Because he's not mafia, and he's not a wolf.
Also he's not a scumread, and many of my scumreads are scumreading him.

She's wanting to exclusively lynch werewolves, when either scum side flipping is good for us, and we have two lynches.

False. The mafia are at a disadvantage, because THEIR PROTECTIVE ROLE, from both the WEREWOLVES (who can hit them be it accidentally or intentionally) and the VIG (who is gonna be aiming for them), is dead. They furthermore have House's interactions, and players' interactions with House, to help condemn their members. Ergo, the mafia have basically already lost.

The WEREWOLVES, on the other hand, have all three members alive, including their doctor.
The goal here is to kill a werewolf, preferably their doctor, and help even the scales.

Now Bellaphant is suggesting Ranger has a scumread on her she hasn't pushed.

It's been there since the start.
And I only have one vote.
Yesterday it was on LicketyQuickety the whole game, and had it moved, it would have been onto House, who was as noted by second-strongest scumread. DixC was a scumread, but I voted there because it was the JaeReed counterwagon more than anything else.

Why not mafia godfather, unless Ranger claims to know who that is.

This ignores that I explained,

in that very post

, that I didn't think House-LQ interactions were coming from the same scumteam.

The lack of clear reads from Ranger reminds me of when we were scum together.

Uh-huh. Lack of clear reads.
When I have, precisely, one read more than I should.
One. One scumread of mine is wrong. One, and one only.
Meaning of six scumreads, I have only one wrong.
That sure is a lack of direction!

I even have some basic team mapping going on. (Namely, DixC is not mafia. Not only House, but also Kop, have voted the slot with intent to lynch.)
Yes, lack of direction is the logical conclusion to reach from that.

Telling that her Scum reads all the sudden have a lot to say about it.

And Chip Butty, but I'm not letting him get mislynched just like I'm not letting hiplop get mislynched. (Or Almost50 for that matter. Who else is mislynch-bait this game I need to shut down?)

[Ranger]

Tbh this reaction is probably what I would expect a werewolf to have upon been discovered -your first response is to assume that the other scum team has successfully nailed you.

This.

[Ranger]

But that backfired and people were too suspicious of her, it seems she's trying a new tactic.

You know, as much as I say, I don't know what my scumplay is...

...I'm pretty sure I can confidently say what it isn't, and trying a new tactic is not something I can ever see myself doing.
I'm stubborn as town and proud of it; that stubbornness doesn't suddenly vanish as scum. It takes a different form. In this case, not changing tactics.

Anyway, I did say that the longer post was coming.
I'm not giving a more specific timetable than this, but...it'll happen.
After my modded game is back up running again.

[Ranger]

Titus=shotty=creature
NotMafia=sad

For the purposes of this post, I am not going to be pointing out individual posts which look scummy, unless they are in direct reference to a vote. This is mostly interactions, and how I got where I did.

So the reason hiplop's not scum can be traced back as far as 27. That did not read as a bus by House. You get more, in 170 and 171 among others, but you get the idea. If he were to be scum, it would be werewolf. 209 (off of 177) only furthers it.

That's the first thing before the first votecount, which has dual wagons which are both on town:

Almost50: hiplop, KuroiXHF, JaeReed, Charloux, Creature (5)
karnos: LicketyQuickety, Chip Butty, Smithereens, sad1492 (4)

On the Almost50 wagon, you've got two players flipped town. hiplop isn't mafia and I think is town. Charloux is a townread. That leaves Creature (now Titus) sticking out like a sore thumb.
For the karnos wagon, you have {LicketyQuickety, sad}, with sad now being Not_Mafia. Neither of them look good either.

While Bellaphant's 75 might make you inclined to think that she's scum with House (and therefore mafia), his reply in 76, along with her reply in 77, told me otherwise. This is why I firmly believe that Bellaphant is either town or a werewolf. (Her individual posts are what make me lean towards the latter.)

House also voted DixC in 116, producing similar not-mafia interactions. (These are later strengthened in 618.)

Throwaway note, but 149 tells you all pistachi0n isn't mafia, but you'd already know that off of play if you were paying close enough attention.
But anyway...we begin to get the formation of the LicketyQuickety wagon:

LicketyQuickety: hiplop, KuroiXHF, Ranger, JaeReed, Charloux (5)

Two flipped town, and I know myself town as well. hiplop and Charloux both were reacting to the same thing I did. This was one of the main reasons I wanted a LicketyQuickety flip, because if he flipped scum, it would help confirm my townreads on them were not unjustified.

One reason that I thought {Bellaphant, LicketyQuickety} would be paired together was her constant noncommittal defense of him: "LQ's scummy, but I don't know..." is the classical way to brush off a scumread on a scumbuddy in multiball.

Kop is obviously mafia because 217 is literally his one and only contribution to the game. He supports lynching hiplop (again, hiplop is not mafia), and defends House strongly as town. His inclusion of Bella as a weak townread actually serves as a reinforcement to me that they're not aligned together, since I don't think he'd put another scumbuddy in there unnecessarily, as it'd draw too much attention to their team. Also, if you want proof from the House end, 236 serves as a nice indicator that he was defending Kop.

LicketyQuickety: KuroiXHF, Ranger, JaeReed, Charloux, Bellaphant, House (6)

The interesting thing here is that hiplop had jumped off of the LQ wagon, and LQ was defending hiplop. Then, we get this, where House and Bellaphant both jump on for the same reason. This was what told me LicketyQuickety was not likely mafia. It is also more proof that Bellaphant and House are not scum together, since scum aren't going to both hop on like that. In hindsight, this probably means (and should have told me) LicketyQuickety was town, but I didn't see it then.

The point I'm more making is that I wanted to see what LicketyQuickety would flip.

This brings us to the unofficial L-1: karnos (known town), and Chip Butty (who I think is town).

The one and only thing that makes me doubt my scum callouts is seeing 410 with 413. (Though I'll note 412 does have the reads on House and LicketyQuickety that are suspect.) The reaction in 427 did look scum-scum though.

LicketyQuickety revealed he wasn't scum with Creature with posts such as 432, though the conversation dates back further than that post.

If I had to guess, Not_Mafia would be the third mafiate because of things like 461, but it's not definitive. 463 did support it.
And in that range, 462 suggests Creature is not mafia.

Also, you can point to any spot and get this, but to confirm: things like 569 show why Chip Butty is not mafia.

The main doubt I have on DixC being scum comes from 709, from Bellaphant, when combined with House's vote. (Not to mention, Kop's callout, in places like 732.)

Another reason I wanted a LicketyQuickety flip?

DixC: Not_Mafia, House, Bellaphant, JaeReed (4)

This, when you add in Kuroi's vote, then LicketyQuickety's vote (and much much later my own), gets you the peak of the DixC wagon.

I wanted to see LicketyQuickety's alignment, because I felt his flip would be a strong indicator for what DixC would be.

It's around here that the JaeReed wagon forms as a counter:

JaeReed: Kop, hiplop, Smithereens, Almost50, DixC, pistachi0n (6)
DixC: Not_Mafia, House, Bellaphant, JaeReed, KuroiXHF (5)

Kop there is the mafia on JaeReed, but who would be the werewolf if not DixC?

We also get shotty's 782, where he heavily defends DixC and votes JaeReed.

Furthering my scumteam theory, we get 805, where Bellaphant is looking for a non-DixC wagon, 807 is a hilariously scum-induced readslist, and 808 reads as scum-scum interactions, as in, same-team scum-scum interactions.

Starting the day, we get a quick wagon on DixC. Not_Mafia's my guess for third mafiate, and votes. Kop (who is obviously mafia) also votes. Again, it's probably them as mafia legitimately scumhunting. With Kop switching to LicketyQuickety in 932, I don't think LicketyQuickety is mafia even more, now.


Which brings us to the current gamestate.
I'm sorry this is a bit scattered. I'm having trouble focusing at the moment. If you can't make sense of it, I'll give a summary of it all tomorrow.
The important bits were mostly described already though.
DixC is a wolfread. Titus is a wolfread. Bellaphant is a wolfread. LicketyQuickety could be either, but I feel is unlikely mafia. Kop is obviously mafia. I think Not_Mafia is the third mafiate.

[Ranger]

If Ranger had tried to read me at any fucking point in the game, then she wouldn't be making that post.

*cough*

For the purposes of this post,

I am not going to be pointing out individual posts which look scummy

, unless they are in direct reference to a vote. This is mostly interactions, and how I got where I did.

Yes, Bellaphant. That means I find your posts individually scummy.

I have found the posting of {pistachi0n, Chip Butty, Charloux, hiplop, Smithereens, Almost50} varying degrees of town, off of their individual posting.
Interactions can narrow that even further: Chip Butty is 100% not mafia thanks to the Chip-House reactions. hiplop is not mafia thanks to the House-hiplop, and Kop-hiplop, interactions. pistachi0n also has interactions suggesting that she's not mafia.

I have found the posting of {LicketyQuickety, Creature(dating back to him)/shotty(this was not his town game)/Titus(this is not her town game), Kop(this is his scumgame), DixC, Bellaphant, sad(sorta)/Not_Mafia(mostly)} suspicious. Off of individual posts.
Kop is the most obvious mafiate ever with Kop's interactions with House and House's limited interaction with Kop.
{DixC, Bellaphant} have strong interactions suggesting they are not mafia. LicketyQuickety has weak interactions suggesting he may not be mafia. Creature/shotty/Titus also have interactions suggesting they are not mafia.
For the final mafiate, that leaves the candidates as {LicketyQuickety(but most likely not), Creature/shotty/Titus(but most likely not), sad/Not_Mafia}.
That also gives a werewolf pool of {LicketyQuickety, Creature/shotty/Titus, DixC, Bellaphant, sad/Not_Mafia}. But interactions can further narrow it down.

{LicketyQuickety, Bellaphant} are not likely scum together, in spite of her noncommittal defense of him. (That's something which looks bad for her, period, regardless of LQ's alignment, but by itself means nothing about LQ.)
{LicketyQuickety, Creature/shotty/Titus} are not scum together.
In short...the only places LicketyQuickety can realistically be scum are in a {LicketyQuickety, DixC, Bellaphant, sad/Not_Mafia} combo of three.
sad/Not_Mafia works best as the third mafiate.
So once again!
With Kop as mafia, and Not_Mafia as mafia, we get a gamestate where the only wolf team with LicketyQuickety on it is {LicketyQuickety, DixC, Bellaphant}...but LicketyQuickety did go against DixC fairly hard, making this less likely.

Short version short: LicketyQuickety, on a full review, in spite of being individually scummy, just doesn't work well on most scumteams. Especially not wolf-teams.

So, that leaves for werewolves...
{DixC, Bellaphant, Creature/shotty/Titus, sad/Not_Mafia}
...But there has to be a third mafiate, and sad/Not_Mafia has the interactions most heavily suggesting this.

tl;dr:
Wolves are, by interactions, most likely {DixC, Bellaphant, Creature/shotty/Titus}.
This isn't that hard to parse.

[Ranger]

You know when I told Ranger not to explain her read on LQ?? It was because -after thinking it opver for a couple of days no less- i came to the conclusion she was the Town Vig, shot LQ and he survived, thus she deduced he was protected by the only Doctor alive in game. As I said, I'm STUPID!

A good thought, but if I were the vig, LicketyQuickety during N1 would be someone who would either be a guaranteed protection, or town. In other words...bad shot.

Now, he wouldn't be the worst vig shot ever NOW, with the mafia doctor dead and LicketyQuickety being more likely mafia than wolf (though being more likely town than mafia), but it'd be a shot more likely to just give the town an extra lynch rather than a shot to hit scum, so I'd recommend against it. My advice to the vig really would depend on what we hit with our two lynches today. If we hit the werewolf doctor, then just lynching one of {Kop, Not_Mafia} and shooting the other is a good plan. If we don't, then it's a bit more iffy. We have two attempts today, though, which is why I really am focusing on the werewolves.

Frankly, I think the most ideal of ideal states would be lynching a non-doctor werewolf first, then the werewolf doctor second, and then randomly choosing one of {Kop, Not_Mafia} to vig with the mafia and wolves both at a disadvantage, but whatever works, works.

Like I said. We should be lynching AT LEAST one of {DixC, Titus, Bellaphant} in this first phase, and depending on what they flip, evaluating whether we want a werewolf or mafia lynch after that.

[Ranger]

I can do that.
VOTE: DixC.

[Ranger]

My body sucks.

Mod: V/LA yesterday, today, and tomorrow to recover.

I hate feeling this sick every couple of weeks or so, but I can't magically wave a wand and make the sickness go away.

[Ranger]

I'm sorry.
I'm too tired to focus properly, and I DO need to get sleep.
So this game will have to wait until tomorrow.

[Ranger]

I'm taking a break from mafia.
Swear to god, if ONE little time of things going wrong causes me to be unable to keep up with my games

this badly

, this consistently, I'm clearly in no shape to play.
I need to sleep. But this game's basically my

second

priority tomorrow because I need to be the town leader here.

[Ranger]

Posting here momentarily. Still not feeling the best, but I did promise it two days ago, so.

[Ranger]

Frick.
You lynched me here.

Congratulations.
You just lynched your vig.

NEVER.
EVER.

Lynch outside of my scumreads.
I was the ONLY one who shot scum. (I shot Vedith.)
When all of YOU were busy mislynching JaeReed, I was doing my job.

So bluntly.
Lynch {DixC, Bellaphant, Titus}. Lynch {pirate mollie, Not_Mafia} to get the mafia, but the wolves come first.
This should never have happened because you ALWAYS.
100% of the time.

WAIT FOR A CLAIM BEFORE HAMMERING SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN SICK.

[Ranger]

And yes.
This is why I said I was leading the town this game.
You're all idiots.
I shot scum.
I defended town.
My reads this game are good. I have caught scum and narrowed things down.
But NOW, instead of me continuing to shoot scum, GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR LYNCHES, because you'll

need

luck on your side because YOU. COULDN'T. WAIT. ONE. DAY. For me to recover.

[Ranger]

I think you should have just claimed earlier to save people's time if you were at L-1.

When was I around to do this?
OH.
YEAH.
I WASN'T.

I was at L-2 last time I checked: no danger at all.

[Ranger]

And specifically AFTER I tell you not to be morons, you're going after Mirhawk.
Newsflash: Mirhawk's not mafia.
The mafia have been pushing him the whole game.

He's incredibly unlikely to be a werewolf.
So stop pushing him.

[Ranger]

Iraon is town btw.
That also needs to be made abundantly clear.

[Ranger]

I think maybe, I'm addicted to mislynching Ranger.

You and most of the site. >_>