Open 402 -- Hard Boiled (Game Over!)

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Venmar

Not random.

Not answering questions.

Tracker/Vig you should be taking tracker tonight, I know that what im taking if I got it. Vig has a extremely high chance of killing hider. I mean really, assume VT lynch for simplicity and vig kills VT, hider dies behind all scum, vig, and both NKs for six of eleven possible targets resulting in death. Besides, tracker is useful for partial confirms.

Venmar wagon should happen now.

[LlamaFluff]

Your justification for a wagon on me is because i made two non mafia related questions? I honestly did make those at random. I find your argument invalid for a wagon.

Well lets break it down

1) Adds nothing but possibly WIFOM to the game
2) Somewhat useful but is not really indicative of skill, there are raw newbies who I see as better than some vets
3) Only benifits scum since they know how everyone responds to lurkers/etc
4) Useless and possibly WIFOM again
5) Useless
6) Useless

So you asked questions that add noise, WIFOM and actually aid scum. So yes its where I want a wagon going right now. RQS is scummy to anti-town always because it adds nothing but potential for noise, slipping info and getting into theory debates but one of your questions actively aids scum if it gets answered.

[LlamaFluff]

Your justification for a wagon on me is because i made two non mafia related questions? I honestly did make those at random. I find your argument invalid for a wagon.

Well lets break it down

3) Only benifits scum since they know how everyone responds to lurkers/etc

Agree with point 3, but still not lynch worthy.

If you agree why did you answer it?

[LlamaFluff]

I never said anyone has to answer the questions, so why are you getting mad at me? I actually specifically said it twice in that post, you do not have to answer them.
The last two questions were useless, okay, so why do they matter so much to you?

Im not getting mad, im trying to play damage controll at this point and get a read on you.

The last two are the ones im least concerned about because they can only make noise which really there is no good way of avoiding in this game eventually either way. Its just good not to intentionally kick it up. Some of the others have potential to damage town though so im shutting down the discussion before scum gets the information that they normally have to work to figure out handed over to them.

[LlamaFluff]

To get something going.

Like.... ?

[LlamaFluff]

A discussion.

On?

Im not sure how you can get any discussion off of RQS that is not "you are scum for RQS" or "you are scum for theory X"

[LlamaFluff]

Ugh Venmar is wrong on all accounts theory wise but I think he actually believes what he is talking about here. Really though RQS is horrible and this is from someone who also hates RVS. Best way to break it is to call anyone scum for some really small tell and just drag the game out of the RVS that way.

@Arugula - What do you think of Venmar?
@Thomith - Why do you still have your random vote out?

BK is town for approaching the tracker/vig thing from the town POV.

[LlamaFluff]

Why do you hate RQS so much when clearly me starting it has already sparked a discussion? If this was RVS than we would still be speculating off of votes that most were made in a humorous manner, and therefor most are actually useless to use until someone makes a stupid mistake, and thus a possible slip.

RQS sparks theory discussions which are a side point in most open games where they should end at things such as "tracker is best" and maybe get into "hider claim + track follow" although thats not as big and im still mulling that one vs hypo-hide over. RQS doesnt get us out of the RQS stage outside of disagreements about how the game should be played, or attacking the one who started the RQS. Both are dull and pointless, but RVS if everyone is willing to end it fast poses less damage risk.

@ Llama HOw did he approach the tracker/vig thing from town POV. I see that post as rolefishing. You however, are approaching it from a town POV.

He is looking at it from the benifit of clearing anyone who does an action that didnt target the player who dies. Thats something I think town looks at and actually brings up before scum does.

Vote Kass

Utility.

[LlamaFluff]

For now I'm going to UNVOTE: as it's clear nobody else will buy in to the PL.

So what... im guessing this is VI makes an alt or something at this point?

I agree with nacho about most of his post, but really think that LM is more likely just someone who is trying to get around bad meta or something, more not-smart than scummy. If they are someone I know I would almost rather they just say since I tend to do a good job at reading players like kondi and Furc (basically VI I have seen before).

[LlamaFluff]

I freely admit I have not been doing very well in this game so far, and will hopefully get better. I have not specifically played a game with you in it before, but have experience with Kassadin and Nacho in previous games.

Misusing the phrase "policy lynch" to push a case with no backing isnt the best start. Although we may have played, I have been playing almost purely on an alt for the last year now so... it could have happened.

@TWC - What is your read on Arugla and BK?

[LlamaFluff]

i kept my random vote on because i forgot i had it up, also kass always plays this way, and usually if they are town or scum at least one scum bussess/jumps on them, for this reason.

Nope.

Kass actively ignored all of the current debate with their post, meaning they are either not contributing or not reading. When you mix in that Kass is a borderline policy lynch (correct terminology), im trying to kick up a ultility wagon on them.

[LlamaFluff]

*grumble*

I mess it up that fast?

Questions still stands.

[LlamaFluff]

The question from the pony not in the game that decided to make an unprompted guest appearance.

Seriously like the second time ive messed that one up... figured I would do it eventually but that was quick.

[LlamaFluff]

i answered that question above my lolyourllama post.

So you have no read on Kass?

[LlamaFluff]

null read on kass, it honestly depends on your/BK's allignment.

*twitch*

[LlamaFluff]

@fifi - What is your read on andrew and venmar?

I really shouldnt be having to ask specifically to extract information. Once a few of the ones who only have a few posts in I will get something going here. For now Kass I still dont like, especially since she is now attacking people for saying that taking tracker is good. There is nothing wrong with reitterating an important point with additional information or simply showing agreement with it.

[LlamaFluff]

Im actually liking the push from Arugla here.

unvote
Vote Thomith

[LlamaFluff]

@Techno - What is your read on Bw?
@BK - What is your read on Thomith?

@mod

- How does night actions resolve with respect to psycologist and scum killing? If the Psych targeted scum who had never submitted a previous kill but was submitting a kill on that night what would they get as a result?

[LlamaFluff]

If there was ever a game I needed my pictures to deal with the frustration...

Im really waiting for all three of the ones flaking/away to come back because I need their input here to draw some bigger conclusions.

Awesome news is we may be able to have a very early mini-alliance.

[LlamaFluff]

@llama , why is that question not a PM to the mod?

So everyone knows it 100%

Played a setup like this that I think got crash lost and quite a bit of mod not being clear on things like that messed up stuff.

Given that we are out of RVS, how about you explain your vote at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

Alliances simply allow scum to hide better, and again, are either a badly thought out idea from town, or a scummy idea from scum wanting to hide from scrutiny.

Alliances of town who trust eachother can decimate scum. Thomith has seen me drum up a very successfull one before.

Will explain it more once I get something from fifi and LM since they are kinda important in all of this.

[LlamaFluff]

And as I have said, im waiting to see what happens with fifi and LM first. Then im going to start making some more power moves.

[LlamaFluff]

And as I have said, im waiting to see what happens with fifi and LM first. Then im going to start making some more power moves.

Well you'll be waiting awhile, since LM is VL/A.

And I hope you aren't going to say that LM is one of your townreads. He's out for a PL and quicklynch, loves his wagons and seems as scummy as BK and Burke.

Well LM is just avoiding this game from what I can tell so I think he can be back if he wants right about now. As I said, im going to withold stuff a bit until they get resolved then its time to get stuff rolling along.

[LlamaFluff]

Why are you 'withholding' your scumreads from me?

Both LM and fifi have not contributed anything substanital to this game, and im not going to give them a jumping off point to just follow me along when I have no reason to think they are town. Putting together a large post, especially if it touches on them, is going to cause them to take entirely different approaches to the game. Thats why I want some form of a read from both, so before I start pushing the game along I have an idea of where everyone actually stands instead of trying to figure out if its town or scum sheeping later on.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm trying to figure out what you are trying to say. Correct me if I am wrong, but you want to analyse them as potential recruits for the 'town patrol?'

Making assumptions about what I am thinking is dangerous. I tend to think really differently so yeah, just give it time to see if fifi is being replaced or not.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok!

Well fifi is being replaced which kind of sucks since I think he might be scum but a replacement isnt going to do a whole lot for validating any of that since it new perspectives and whatnot. LM also has disappeared more entirely so im not too sure anything against him for posting a bit elsewhere first holds water.

Town alliance time though since both Arugula and Nacho are town. All the debate surrounding Kass makes me think he is town by association so im going to throw him in the mix too. Im circling throwing Venmar in the pool as well, would have to qualms to him tagging along in all of this.

I need to figure which of Thomith, rasp, BB its time to make a run at. Stay tuned but given that I already have a group of four others that is going to have one scum in it max we are well on our way.

@BB/Venmar - How many games have you played with eachother?

[LlamaFluff]

I'm getting this weird vibe from Venmar.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Venmar

Those who give self meta are usually a little more likely to be town. Some other stuff suggests it too though.

Explain your vibe, also your current read on Thomith.

Vote BwB

Slightly better pick than Thomith, although he still really bugs me and I have no problems go there if that is what the alliance wants.

[LlamaFluff]

Personally, I would rather lynch rasp or thomith before bw.

Yeah im still debating it after this fast of a wagon, it really is basically all town reads and alliance members though so im a bit torn since this type of showing is exactly what we need to make the alliance scary.

Hider claim is best I think. Super low chance something goes wrong. Going to think a little more on it and weigh it against hypo-claim though. Hypo has less catastrophic failure odds but higher small failure odds.

[LlamaFluff]

Awesome.

Tracker is following BK tonight who is now in the alliance. Up to a third of the game already town, this should be over quick.

[LlamaFluff]

If BK is scum claiming hider, the real hider would claim and we would lynch BK.

Eyup

Im interested to see what Bw brings to the table when he comes back here.

@rasp - Was your vote on Thomith RVS or pressure, those are two entirely different things. What is your current read on him too? Additionally, try and explain your Venmar read.

[LlamaFluff]

@Techno - I think mod is using the countdown feature (I prefer old school) of deadline, it keeps updating. So deadline is the 8th or so. Still time.

@DCL - Beauty of alliances is that they can take more VI players along and still be strong because it just creates power moves even if scum get on the outskirts of them since they have little to no sway over what goes on with the core of the votes. My Kass in alliance read is due to the amount of reads that are formed with Kass-town in mind from quite a few players, which suggests that Kass is probably town due to very few scum being wise enough to know to take a small misread like that nad run with it. Calculated risk. Im not going to really give any credit to much Kass says, but I think they are town for the way they have been treated.

@andrew - Tracker/Vig is taking tracker or they are playing against their win condition essentially at this point since they are basically removing a cop (hider) from the game and creating a miller in themselves. Also you list Thomith and Venmar as scum. Which is more likely to be scum and why?

[LlamaFluff]

@Techno - If BwB was around, would you prefer his lynch or Thomiths?

Vote Thomith

Both this lynch and BwB are great ones to persue.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

To prevent shennanigans.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote andrew

[LlamaFluff]

llama, explain.

Your recent post seems to heavily suggest that you think Thomith is town, yet you are calling him scummy. Plus your stance on Venmar seems a little contrived or something, just not right.

Suggest as in "Arugula telling buddies to hammer" when for Thomith scum + Aruglua + plural there would be four scum
Suggest as in "lynch a quickhammer" when lynching somepony who quickhammers scum is rare

[LlamaFluff]

Thomith is probably town with the VT claim.

[LlamaFluff]

How does my post think thomith is town.
what the hell is contrived.

Your post suggest Thomith is town because of everything I said. Your first line suggests Thomith-town or four scum, your other line suggests Thomith is town because why would we quicklynch someone who hammered scum?

contrived more or less means artificial, fake, etc

i have many scum suspects............
if u think the person you are voting is scum, why did you unvote to prevent 'shregans'.
your inconsistant there.

I dont want a hammer without a claim for one, no matter what he is. The claim says Thomith is town though by virtue of the VT rule. So we are not going to be lynching him today.

The VT rule applies to the first player to claim VT in most setups, and it means they are very likely to be town, especially in opens. The theroy states that because it essentially resigns themselves to a lynch without doing anything to out who is a PR, they are more likely than not town. Scum would benifit from a fakeclaim even if they get lynched without a counter because they should get some reactions that at least would suggest someone is not that role. This game in particular for a reason I will talk about later scum need to do something early or they will lose fast. Thomith being lynched as scum after a VT claim basically just leaves town in the strongest possible position we could be in, so chances are that its a true claim, especially as he showed little will to do anything to save himself post claim.

I would be willing to lynch andrew or BwB right now.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah andrew... DCL is not in the alliance, im actually pretty uneasy over him. Techno is also not in the alliance. So there goes whatever point you were trying to make or something.

Would like to see "where I think Thomith is town well before VT claim" though, since I unvoted to stop a quickhammer that could hit a PR because we have you, rasp and Kass none of whom I trust at all not to do something just to piss everyone else off.

andrew is essentially unreadable for me since I usually just want him dead because I dislike his play that much, but I think being exceedingly pissy is a town tell from him. Im almost thinking BwB could be a better lynch given how he keeps popping up on Thomith wagon and I have no idea what reasoning he is using to justify that move at all.

unvote
Vote BwB

[LlamaFluff]

An unreadable player like andrew could be a bitch at LyLo, so my vote stays. Also, I've learned that pissy is not always a town tell. He could be frustrated that the town alliance is taking control.

I will easily come back to an andrew vote in part because it would make the game better no matter what he flips.

There are a few players though here (DeltaWave) who are much more of an asshat when they are town which is really annoying.

Andrew completely missing the point and making the alliance much bigger then it is in his post makes me think town though because I think scum would actually know more about what I am thinking here. It could be me applying how I play as scum to try and catch scum, but I tend to be far better at knowing what is going on as scum than town, especially with smaller details.

He is on a shortlist but I prefer BwB at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

Unvote, Vote: Andrew94

hey llama, now you know why vig is good?

You dont get to talk about people being VIs if you are suggesting the vig gets picked. Well you dont get to talk about it either way, but picking vig is basically playing against your win condition. If you think its best it just builds my resume of why you should be policy lynched for being a liability or scum in every game.

Vote BwB

Best lynch there is.

[LlamaFluff]

@DCL - I actually have used that tell over a whole lot of games with a ton of success, way more than I should get if it really was random. Dont even think that I have gotten burned by it before when sticking my neck out in its use to try and get someone off the chopping block. It is far more likely that a VT claim is from VT than from scum in the early stages of the game, enough so that in most circumstances stopping a D1 lynch of claimed VT works more often than not.

Think of it this way, are you more likely to claim a PR or VT in D1 of an open where you know exactly what roles you are looking for?

Also yes, its hard switching back from an alt when ive basically only played on them talking in a different way for a year. I will do stuff like that occasionally.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Vote is there figuratively not in actuality because its L-1 and I dont trust half the game not to do something overly derpy.

I think its about claim time.

[LlamaFluff]

Thomith is town. Im almost sure of it here. The VT claim. The fact that he is not paying attention to what is going on with regards to claims. It just reads to me like he is town, maybe not the best town in the world but all my conclusions are that he is town. Even the fact that he is really shutting outs for his own lynch (andrew wagon) back this up.

These are things that you just see so much less often from scum, so im going to campaign hard against his lynch.

Andrew and BwB are far superior lynches, LM too. BwB continues to give us absolutely nothing in the form of reads and just materializes on every wagon that shows up. Andrew is basically the same but stands in the way of things, not as sure if he is just annoying town or scum though. LM falls in the same boat where there is really no reason to think him as town, so killing him is far from the worst thing we could do.

Apart from BK, there are only a couple I would rather have Thomith lynched than. He is town telling hard. While he has done some questionable things, you guys actually need to wiegh town tells in there as well

@Techno - Opens mean you are MORE likely to fakeclaim since you know what exists as scum that way. If he claims tracker/vig, to counter the only tracker vig is going to have to out themselves. If he claims psych, scum will be able to confirm what exists and play more optimally. The fact that he claimed VT is just another thing in a long line of actions from him that say he is more likely than not scum.

Just think of it this way, for Thomith to be scum he would have needed to miss that town claim a PR, refuse to vote andrew who is one of his only outs to getting lynched, claimed VT meaning he probably dies in the process avoiding outting one of the other two town PRs that are CONFIRMED to exist and to me that all together means he is probably town and not scum just playing suboptimally. Simplest solution is usually the correct answer, and especially the lack of noticing a PR claim points to VT.

[LlamaFluff]

HAve you brought this reasoning out before
IF So if im scum with you in the future, ill claim VT at L1 and you will pull that reasoning out again?

Ive used this tell with a lot of success since at least 2009. When players hit all of the necessary parts that qualify for its application, yes I use it and probably will continue to use it. Its a great way to throw the brakes on any lynch im unsure of post claim.

Also, your saying i dont give reads. really?
Dont insult me by putting me in the same category as bwb/lm

Most of your reads is complaining about how we dont listen to you about Arugula instead of something like a case on Arugula, we also have you not really doing anything about Thomith apart from saying I shouldnt be calling them town or something. I have no clue why you are voting Venmar too, there are a few posts but they are so choppy and using text stuff that I cant understand what points you are even trying to make. If you want to say something, use words and quotes that show some form of mental competence, its stuff like that which is why not many people remotely respect you as a player here. You post quite a bit, but really I dont have too much of an idea on where you stand on quite a few things. And yes, playing with LM is preferable to playing with you. You are more like playing with Umbrage.

Vote BwB

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama: My post 314 stands. You seem to be defending Thomith a lot over his VT claim and you seem adamant he is town for it, when you haven't said anything about whether he looks scummy by your other reads on him. Why should a VT claim make that much of a difference? And why were being suggestive earlier about trying to switch to a Burke lynch? I just get the feeling you were trying to swing the game away from a Thomith lynch EVEN when you had your vote on him and supposedly thought he was scummy. What were your thoughts on Thomith before? How confident were you that he was scum before the claim, and which lynch did you prefer before the claim?

Town tells can outweigh scum tells.

Its not impossible to make a case on just about anyone, thats how you win games as scum, being able to make cases on players who are town by looking at things that can be construed as scum tells. If a player hits strong town tells though, you dont lynch them, and thats why im trying to get this wagon off Thomith right now. He has hit enough of the town tells that I like that im not going to have the lynch of him go through if I can help it.

[LlamaFluff]

-venmar buddies with at least 3 people (one of them you)
(he keeps saying its a coincidence)
-venmar is too diplomatic in his first post

-venmar post 305 says that im his number 2 suspect, after bbw
venmar post 315 says that his first is thomith
venmar 319 says that i am now number 1 on his list, surpassing th omith.

Buddying - Not an alignment tell really. I will definantly buddy with players as town and scum when it benifits me.
Diplomatic - Not a tell, definantly a good leadership trait for the game.
Other thing - How is this a tell?

bbw completely disappered.
he votes me without much case on me.
and you obviously dont even read my posts

I can read them, I just dont understand them

"bbw disappeared"

Thought process - Ok... I think he means BwB, and is this him saying he is lurking and thats a scum tell? Is it a blanket lurking accusation or in response to something in specific?

"he votes me..."

Wow thats some tense butchering. So he is complaining that BwB voted him without making a case, but why is he complaining about that when BwB voted quite a few other players without actually giving cases as well? Is this his way of saying that he thinks BwB is scum?

So yes, your posts are very hard to understand when they read like they are written as text messages from some freshman high school student (which given your username... may be about the case)

@andrew - What is your read on Thomith?

also lol claim

[LlamaFluff]

Mod shouldnt do that because I saw what im assuming is the LM alt slip so I would have information no one else does.

[LlamaFluff]

I want to see what Nacho has to say about this really since he was talking about possible meta first.

The VT claim from BwB was unexpected though, as a few of his posts had a "no fear of hitting PR" vibe that would more likely come from a PR than VT. Its not as strong though, and im still happy enough with a lynch of BwB since the VT claim only tends to hold up for the first claim in a game and from there on out it loses potency quickly.

[LlamaFluff]

The VT claim from BwB was unexpected though, as a few of his posts had a "no fear of hitting PR" vibe that would more likely come from a PR than VT.

Wait a second? You are saying you pushed a wagon on someone you thought was a possible PR? What..the...fuck...??!?

Just because I think a player may be a PR doesnt mean im not going to push them without some sort of very strong PR tell or anything to that extent. I actually tend to do pretty well with figuring out the "scum or PR" pool in opens, just have a difficult time distinguishing between the two since quite a few of the tells are similar due to midsets between the two roles having more overlap than scum/VT

[LlamaFluff]

He is town enough for me to entirely shut down that wagon if at all possible so thats pretty strong. Hard to really attach subjective terms, but I would bet on him being town here without much of a second thought if that helps.

[LlamaFluff]

@Jackal - Explain your current read on Thomith.

[LlamaFluff]

@thomith post 384, thats why im not impressed when he throws that bit of logic at me
-i.e. claim vt= town

You DO realize he appears to be disagreeing with you right? He is saying that if my tell is bad any older tell is bad by the same logic. Lots of older tells still apply, and the VT one is hard because it doesnt always hit all the necessary parts so im not always going to bust it out.

llama, answer my answer to your misrep. ignoring it is not looking good for you.

If you want me to answer you first stop typing like you are a high school girl talking to her friends about her "OMG u guyz i had a grt wknd!" stuff and someone might actually take you remotely seriously. Second you are going to want to actually have questions instead of statements, unlike a little kid who comments on how many cookies or whatever you have really trying to ask you for one, I at least am hoping if you want me to respond you will word things in the form of a question and not a statement.

Now - You are wrong. He starts by agreeing with me about the VT tell, even though he still shows some confliction over it. I was reading that as he seems him as scummy but is willing to buy the VT claim or something along those lines. You know who would be a good one to ask about it though? Venmar. Either make it clear you are asking him stuff, because I have no idea what you say that you want a response to, or something because your posts make zero sense most of the time in what you expect to recieve from others.

Why is "using others reasoning" a scum tell too? You are going to have to explain that one to me.

@DCL - Im not going to back off a lynch because someone might be a PR off some of their behavior and they havent claimed. Also I have already said I think Kass is townish, LM I am more or less defering to Nacho for now, and I think andrew is a complete VI I would prefer to ignore, but is leaning town.

[LlamaFluff]

-llama pushs me as scum when hes scum since im easy target, eventually unvoting me and voting some other guy near the deadline
-llama talks about the setup a lot when hes scum in that game
-llama misreps me a lot in that game. For example, he said that we had a deadline lynch on day 1, when in reality we ended up with a no lynch

-Im going to hazzard a guess. You get lynched a lot in most games, or at least get defended as "he is always like this". You play scummy so yes I will vote you.
-Open games warrent more setup discussion. In this game there is immediately optimal play in what role gets picked.
-When you are extremely vauge, its easy to 'misrep' anything you say.

more other stuff
- llama acts town to most of the people in the game when hes scum
- llama even says hes unlynchable when hes scum (and in this game u guys are showing no interest in voting him, only sheeping him)

-True. I tend to actually get called scum MORE when im town than when im scum
-Also true. Last time I got lynched as scum that was not due to mod error or a cop was due to essentially a game throw from a partner. Im decent as town but im far better as scum, and exceedingly rarely get lynched as either.

[LlamaFluff]

Respond to post 397 (stuff above the first quote)

and no i dont get lynched in most of my games. i would say less than 25%. Go check or something.

When you make a question, form it as a question and not a statement. I do not see a question, but you say its bad for me to want another claim... yet you are not voting either Thomith or BwB so im assuming you want another claim too? I cant find the question you are talking about, it all looks like statements.

Humor me if you must but make a Venmar case that is formatted as follows

Venmar is scum because in <quote goes here> he does/says/etc <action>. <action> means that he is probably scum because of <reason>.

Dont just say
-One liner
-One liner
-Thats my case

Show me EXACTLY what you are calling him scum for with quotes explaining what PART of the post is the scummy part. Once you do that say why the action is a scum tell, meaning show the scum motivation. I should not be guessing what you are calling scum tells in his post. My jokey alt which talks entirely different still is made so I get my point across effectively, you I have little to no idea what the big picture is or what you think about things more than knowing you dislike a post.

Also you think Thomith and BwB are town?

[LlamaFluff]

If you dont answer my question of "what is your question" instead of "look at my post" which reads like disjointed ramblings, im not going to answer your question

[LlamaFluff]

everyone would just claim town if they are at L-1

Exactly my point on Llama's argument.

Llama, I know you're getting consumed with this pointless argument with andrew, but please answer my question on Burke. Do you think his claim was serious? If so, what does it tell you about his alignment (given your stance on Thomith's claim)?

Look.

The tell is not cut and dry, its something that ive been refining for quite a few years, and has a lot of smaller dependant things that help me guage how much I should defend the player who hit it, if at all. Being the first one to claim VT is one of the strongest aspects of the tell, since once I present the tell I present players with a possible out for claiming VT.

BwBs claim feels wrong, but I dont think he is a PR fakeclaiming VT. I have seen that happen just a few times ever, so its not something that really should even be considered. I dont think its as big of a towntell for a few reasons;

1) He is not the first to claim VT
2) His play of jumping around from wagon to wagon without doing much to check votecounts lines up with PR/mafia play more than VT play
3) The claim itself feels jokey

He could be town, but I think he still is a decent lynch at this point

@andrew - If your posts read like im arguing with a drunk, im going to not understand your point and probably make you think im misinterpreting you. Use quotes and my case pattern generator, and people will actually understand what you mean. If you want more of a response than that, you can ask me a real question.

[LlamaFluff]

WHY DID YOU MISREP ME?

<-- QUESTION 1
I SAID BBW DISAPPERED FROM VENMAR'S SCUM LIST. I WAS TALKING
ABOUT VENMAR IN MY WHOLE POST

I already answered this. I commented on what I thought you were saying.

WHY DID U SEPERATE MY POST INTO 2, THEN MISREP ME?

<-- QUESTION 2
I WAS TALKING ABOUT VENMAR IN MY ENTIRE POST.

Because im not going to quote an entire post and put everything at the bottom when im responding to specific things. Breaking it down (like this) makes it easier to see what exactly I am responding to.

i saw your response to my post where i checked up your past game, but you cant read the post above with my questions?

<-- question 3

Its really difficult for me to understand your posts, so im going to probably miss questions when they are not really clearly questions. Loaded questions generally read like comments instead of questions too.

[LlamaFluff]

Oh and, Where did i post loaded questions?

Every single question that contains "why did you misrep me?" is a loaded question. Which is most of your questions.

Also yes im going to complain a lot about you not being easy to understand when you continue to complain that I am not answering your questions. You cant even start to say that I havent done much though this game, because im pretty sure ive done more than most everyone else in this game.

What have you done? Mostly complain that im not answering your questions and put up stuff that everyone ignores because its a mess of an attempt at a case. Use my format and make a case, try approaching things in a new direction or just do something else.

I should have just passed over this game when I saw you in it but its a good setup. I wish you were scummy here so I could just get you killed and move on, and apparently im not the only one feeling like that at this point.

Also if you are going to be trying to get venmar lynched... try and get me lynched instead because im fairly sure he is town but more sure that I can actually defend myself against pure noise than he can.

[LlamaFluff]

You guys are free to lynch me, i am getting frustrated with playing with Andrew to be fully honest.

I'm still at L-1, so anyone who hammers is likely to be scum here. Keep that in mind.

Thats a scum response to L-1 if ive ever seen one. Threats AND jumping on the counter wagon?

Vote BwB

Assuming the scum flip I would take a look at DCL/Techno/rasp tomorrow

[LlamaFluff]

Threats are anti-town, but joining a counterwagon isn't, as town know they are town it is in their best interest to get someone else lynched.

Jumping on the biggest wagon is not town mentality, especially in this case when there are a lot of players at similar levels of wagon-ness. Town is more of trying to figure out who is most likely scum and trying to convince everyone else to vote them, or at least convince us that they are town. There is more than a 'survive' mentality as town. Scum tend to have more of a 'survive' mentality.

If a hammer falls remember tracker follows hider. That way a dead hider gives us confirmed scum. Also an investigator with a guilty outwieghs tracker in forms of a guilty.

First claim is a guilty from the psych if one exists if the hider is dead. If one exists we just hypo the result of each of us tracking the hider, lynch guilty and tracker gets a free crack at the game to catch scum, and if they die we have thier hypo guilty

[LlamaFluff]

Shut up already. Your posts are in the format of texts, they are disjointed, they don't make sense, and they are hard to understand. I don't blame Llama or Venmar for not responding to you because you are unintelligible. God damn.

Why are you trying to shut up discussion?
we can talk until the lynch scene.

Why are you misrepping Arugula?

[LlamaFluff]

I am aware of that, however the moment the space in the initial box is filled, and i have to scroll down, the thing goes up and down everytime i type.

This would happen on a couple campus computers that I would sometimes use, try downloading Chrome, it fixed it for me.

Also yes you are misrepping Arugula, he is telling you to be quiet about that specific thing, not that we all need to stop talking because there was a lynch.

Using word should work fine though since all of the tags are basic bracket ones, nothing is complex to the point something like word will freak out at you like if you tried to put matlab code in there or something.

[LlamaFluff]

BK needs to claim, then we hypo claim for psych result.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama

what do you mean by hypoclaiming? is it anything like hypodocing? I'm a little confused.

Hypoclaim is basically a way for commonly a cop to get a claim out without actually claiming by everyone in the game saying "I investigated X"

In this case its approachable from two different town roles by saying "My result suggest X is <Alignment>" as town results are not concrete but suggested here.

As I think about it more though, hypo here really isnt usefull as innocent results are not overly useful, so I think it just gets passed on unless there is a guilty, and they should flat out claim their result.

Little upset with Venmar being the choice since his reaction to andrew was a prob-town one, but eh not a lot of others seemed willing to listen about that read.

Vote Techno

rasp/jackal/DCL also decent spots

BK and Venmar are town for sure
andrew is (sadly) prob town
Kass and Thomith are town reads
Nacho is floating around but I still want to say town for the twilight post

Rest is the lynch pool. Techno can go first though.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama: How is Kass a townread for you? What input has he given that would suggest this? And am I the only person in your scumpool?

Kass I have as a townish read through the actions of others. If you remember what happened early, a whole lot of people called him townish and there was that big arguement Thomith kicked up about how he was town and opportunistic mislynch and things like that. When it happened for as long as it did and with the tone it did, I think its somewhat more likely that not that he actually is town. If Thomith is scum (as you say) I will be stunned if Kass is also scum here.

You are not the only one in my scumpool. You, Rasp, DCL and Jackal are all some degree of scum reads.

If you dont like me defending anyone either, you are really going to have a hard time with my play because being loyal in hard defending my town reads is one of the things im more known for. If I think someone is town, its going to be a pain to actually get them lynched ever. My town reads (already 2/2) tend to be a whole lot better than my scum reads too, so its something I dont like to budge on.

[LlamaFluff]

For meta you are going to need to go pretty far back since last year I played almost primarily on an alt (one guess as to what account) which I play slightly different in a few aspects... and my only recent game on this account got wiped out by the crash.

If you really want some good games from a year ago I can give you them.

[LlamaFluff]

I don't care how old the meta is. If I can see some similarity in your play that's enough for me.

Town game that is a good baseline.
Most recent scum game.

Both I replaced into but still, there they are.

Really its easy to iso and find all games by doing a player info->view topics and just picking through (for me) what games I was backup-ing and needed to step in for.

This VT thing IS something I have been doing for three years or so at this point though, and its worked well enough for me to continue to do it.

Its probably better if you go through them though since I dont use the VT tell in every single game, and some games I wont hardcore defend someone as town if I never have the need or reads to do so.

[LlamaFluff]

My first experience with a VT claim as first claim was that they were scum, another reason I was suspicious of your reasoning.

It doesnt always apply. Thats what makes it interesting.

There are quite a few secondary things apart from "just claimed vanilla" that need to happen for me to step in and actually do anything about it. Thomith has a few of the secondary parts, is missing some, but its still enough to make me step in and do something here.

Really the oddest thing I have about Thomith is he entirely changed the way he has been interacting with me after the alt thing did, as he has seen me as town a whole lot as my alt and knows I can be increadably dangerous when I set my mind to do something. It could just be timing, but it feels little awkward. Its more of a tell than anything else he has done though to me.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama

are you saying you think thomith deliberately changed how he played towards you when your alt was revealed?

Wouldn't that be something scum would be much more likely to do than town?

Yeah it is, which is why im a little conflicted on him but still side with him being town over the VT thing in the end. The way he reacted though almost feels like more of a scumtell than anything else he has done from where I am though since it just seemed to be an immediate turning point in how he viewed me.

I can see approaching things differently when someone slips with an alt, this just seemed like a quick shift when I actually have never been scum against him to compare meta with.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama

I have a question about your meta examples

Are you saying that as town you will strongly defend others townies and you never strongly defend people as scum? Cause that doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I defend players as scum quite a bit too when the position calls for it. I was simply saying that if Techno has a problem with me defending players, he is going to end up always being a little wary of me because its unusual for me to let a town read take much flack, or "town read" when I am scum take that much flack.

@Thomith - You really got passive about the whole "someone who jumped Kass is scum" arguement shortly after I messed that up. It seems like you didnt want to rile me up at all or anything along those lines. Not saying it couldnt be coincidence, but the timing felt a little convienent.

[LlamaFluff]

No.

No he should NOT claim right now.

Given what he did though, you may want to consider not hiding anymore though, which of course is a valid move to start. Allows tracker to just try and hunt down their choice of player. If we mislynch I would say you should not hide (as its about 37% chance you die) but if we hit scum go for it. You need to make your plan clear either way though.

@Jackal - Why are you voting Techno?

unvote

I want to think about this and orginize my thoughts here.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not understanding how the hider not hiding will help town. If you direct him like that, he is likely to get NKd by scum. Tell me if I am missing something but hider should definitely hide.

Hider swings hard in even player setups. If we lose them to a scum target we go down to even numbers and then lose the tracker the following night since they need to claim to catch scum.

No longer hiding forces scum to NK BK, then Venmar, then tracker, then Psych. Thats four kills forced before they can break into killing town for looking town. I like that situation because we are really forcing scum to make moves instead of letting them make moves.

@DCL - Why are you only ending up with andrew-scum as a result of the Venmar wagon?

[LlamaFluff]

@andrew - Why are you rolefishing in 491?

Ive been thinking more... I really dont think Thomith is town with the death we had. Scum easily could have gone with a kill like DCL (who no one really was calling scum) or maybe Techno (who again, no one CALLED scum) and left someone who was in an arguement with andrew (but had him as town) alone. Either way, Arugula was the main supporter of my tell on Thomith, making me think its a little unlikely that Thomith would support that kill when there were quite a few other ones he could have made and taken no flack for.

Im going to say there is a really good chance Thomith is going to be town here, even the subtle and WIFOM things point more too it.

I dont think the "oh I need to claim" post from rasp is the sign of anything but more of a derpy player making a predictable post. Jackal im trying to read, but im still exceedingly happy with the quad I have picked out, although the quick support for Techno suprised me, as does the fact that im apparently the only one who really doesnt like DCL as town. "Try hard" is not a town tell, its a competence tell more than anything else, and just doing it will net you a ton of scum wins.

Oh another fun fact as to why Thomith is probably town. Look at his two wagons.

Thomith (5) -- Arugula, Venmar, LlamaFluff, Kassadin, raspberrylicious
Thomith (5) -- BK201, DCLXVI, TeChNoWC, Lowman, BwBurke

Both serious wagons and ZERO overlap. The only ones that stayed off the Thomith wagon apart from Thomith was andrew and nacho.

Its really rare for a wagon on scum to get that much support throughout the game, especially at two different points. Both appened fairly quickly as well, increasing the chance that they occured on town.

[LlamaFluff]

@ llama your post 557 didnt make sense
are u supposed to be saying i think thomith is town?
cos all your points seem to support that

Are you saying you DONT think he is town? Im not even addressing you right there though, but if you think he is scum but have avoided his wagons, yeah let us know.

about my post 491, look at your post beforehand and tell me whats wrong with it.

Nothing.

You gunna keep rolefishing or do you just not get it?

[LlamaFluff]

I tend to start saying one thing, decide to reword it halfway through and then not always proofread it to see if it makes sense in the end.

Yeah I see you as probably town, VCs and the NK both substantiate that a bit.

[LlamaFluff]

The fact that you didnt even bother to go back to your post when i pointed it out,
and just did a standard accusation back at me (when you said i was town earlier)
screams to me that you are scum that just made up some reads and
didnt double check.

I already said, thats just me combining two trains of though "I think Thomith is town" and "I dont think Thomith is scum" poorly because quite often I change what I am planning to say halfway through typing it out. Normally I catch that stuff, but at times I do miss it. It should be obvious what I was trying to say there was. Stop misrepping me when its obvious what I mean. If you want to be technical, im normally far better with keeping stuff straight as scum too, but thats self-meta and WIFOM.

You also never answered why you are rolefishing.

[LlamaFluff]

@llama, are you dense? you said psych which implied you know
that its the psych. im catching you out so you cant use that as a
softclaim.

I will use it for whatever I feel like using it for. Also if you realize I have used it as a catch all since its the only one I remember. Again, why are you rolefishing?

Why am I scum though... you keep saying it (I think its because im the only one who tells you how everyone views you as a player) but never give really any reasons that dont quickly deteriorate into "and you all are idiots for not seeing it"

[LlamaFluff]

Venmar rolefished and he apparently is town

*twitch*

And Arugula "misrepped" you so that means im town by your same logic?

Yes, I am trying to figure out exactly what you are doing with that comment since the only way you could be turning it into a scumtell that I could see was accusing me of knowing it as scum (impossible), but it would more likely get a reaction from myself or the real psych which would tell scum what needs to be done killing wise.

I still think you are probably town, but I still am trying to stop you from being stupid at the same time. If you want to view that as attacking you as SCUM instead of attacking you as "please stop that" fine. But really, give us something to work with apart from "you are stupid for not agreeing with me". That doesnt even really work for good players most of the time, its never going to work for you.

[LlamaFluff]

Questions:
Where did i say 'you are stupid for not agreeing with me' ?
So you think Argula misrep'ed me?
Why is Tech scum?

First you know exactly the point I am trying to make. Unless you are calling what I think at this point half the game scum, defending youself with "venmar did it" doesnt work for why its not a tell, all it does is show me you are just applying it as you want with no real distinguishing factors of when it applies or not.

1) stuff like

hey argula, guess what, i would pick vig just to shoot your ass (if im that. (NOBODY REPLY TO THIS)). your dead scum to me now, too bad no1's listening

is you throwing a hissy fit that no one will listen to you

2) Im crossing wires again, but im not quite sure why this is important at all? Either way, you DID misrep Arugula... so either you are scum or misrep is not a scumtell or its only one if you want it to be. Im guessing the third am I right?

3) Im working on stuff.

Still borderline upset andrew reads townish since I would love to have any reason to get him lynched and out of this game. Just dont think scum usually will continually bring up how wrong with reads they are though.

[LlamaFluff]

I'm getting very suspicious of the Kass wagon. It would be foolish to assume it is all scummy, but there is one in particular that was pushing it that stands out to me.

Early this is the stance that Techno takes with respect to the Kass wagon that Thomith kicked up, but he dropped this one when I snapped back hard on Thomith to an extent that he never even mentioned it again. There is never really any conclusion to it apart from this early BK vote that was in the same post an appeared to largely stem from the Kass wagon (as a whole).

Biggest problem I have is his transition to the BwB wagon out of seemingly nowhere once BK options go away

I'm up for that, though I would like to see some more posts from him when he comes back from V/LA before a hammer. A bit of pressure is what he needs at the moment though.

There we have it! Pressure.

Or is it wanting to get him lynched

This wagon has taken off very quickly, and its too early in the day for a quicklynch. I want to hear Burke's defence first, plus his scumreads before he gets obliterated out of the game at something like ten posts.

Sounds more like wanting to see him lynched which is subtatiated by

Need to hear back from Burke and at this stage and would like him to claim.

Ok. Time for a timeout to go back and look at why Techno is supporting this wagon.

Yeah I cant find it early. Maybe its that he is lurking?

Lowman being lurky does not make him scum. Anyone can lurk, even town.

Or not?

The entire presence of Techno on the wagon is unexplained, but he is one of he ones that shows up and pushes it to a lynch while still actively aruging for a Thomith lynch, and really never doing a great job of showing why the one on BwB is the better of the two options.

What I dislike more is that Techno immediately uses BwB being town as fodder to jump on Venmar. Using dead reads is not always the safest thing, but using only the LYNCHED dead player while ignoring the NKed one. As in the one scum wanted dead for a specific reason instead of "easy lynch"? Doesnt add up to ingore Arugula while trying to use BwB outside of BwB being a direct way to get a mislynch (Venmar).

Partway into D1... all I got for now but im returning my vote

Vote techno

DCL and Rasp still really bug me too though, Jackal as well but im a little less sure of how he works with Techno. Andrew works well though, just saying.

@andrew - Give cases, otherwise it does really just look like OMGUS or random movements. You claim to be "better than most" (who said that?) so try and prove it.

[LlamaFluff]

So your entire case on BwB was "scummy vibe"? I know 'lurker' doesnt work from your PoV, and I dont see how nervous is a scum tell, or poor decision making. Again, is the arguement that your want of him lynched was a page 7 case of essentially gut?

Even if Arugula died at night, why did you not take the time to look into him if you are going to present dead player analysis?

Also I may be just looking for a reason to think andrew is scum so he is gone from this game, but I still think he is town despite working with you

[LlamaFluff]

I gave my thoughts on the Arugula kill in great detail. You obviously didn't ISO me properly. It's all WIFOM really.

If you note I said im not all the way done with an iso... even a skim shows you shrugged off what Arugula had to say far more than BwB. Where were you pushing this too just so I have an exact post you want me to guage differences off of.

That wasn't my entire case. That was my initial case. I was never deadset on him being scum but either way I didn't think he was helping as town so it was a good lynch. I never really regretted the lynch; he wasn't contributing and when he did he didn't explain himself.

So did you ever expand on the case that I was missing or was that what you ran with the entire time? What caused him to fall into a different boat than the rest of that group of players?

Also I never am 100% sure of anything outside of useful results or other exceedingly rare situations. Its all about what I think is most likely to be true and why. At this point, you are one of my strongest scum reads.

[LlamaFluff]

I understand your reasoning that scum will have a lot of NK's to push through, but they will have a LOT more if Hider keeps confirming towns.

If BK dies behind scum we essentially lose a lynch. Right now we have odd numbers, and at 11 alive have up to five lynches to get it right. If he dies, we advance to 8 alive, and only three lynches. BK dying behind scum nets us scum (as long as tracker doesnt get NKed, another worry) but costs us a lynch. I dont think trading a lynch for scum caught here is the right move, since it would mean we have three lynches to hit the last two scum if we mislynch today (three to hit one if we lynch right) which is why I think BK should only hide if we lynch scum.

I think Rasp should claim at this stage after that whole nearly claim scenario. If he is town and gets NKd tonight for it, we could lose his investigations. And if he is scum making shit up, he will get CCd.

Rasp-Psych with a guilty should claim. Otherwise its inconclusive results since there is a decent chance for a false positive. If they are a tracker, we know their result (BK->Venmar), if psych im assuming a negative result.

[LlamaFluff]

You also forget the REALLY bad "BK hides behind player scum NKs" option, just like hits scum and tracker dies option... two dead no scum caught.

Look at it numerically - 10 alive at night (assume 7:3). Scum know hider, 6 left. So each player has a 1/6 chance of dying. This means that there is between 16-20% chance of scum and hider targeting same player, and 16% chance of scum hitting tracker. That means in about 30% of cases (double target + tracker death) there is no useful result. When you add in the 50% hider dies chance tonight... 15% chance we lose a mislynch for nothing. Or something like that, just trying to mental math this and there are too many fractions.

Basically I just dont like those odds that we give up a mislynch. I would rather just keep two confirmed town. While we have five lynches max, scum only have four NKs. We are forcing two right there with BK and Venmar. Two more with other PRs. They are sufficiently tied up and im not risking freeing them a bit for another clear who could very well be a PR (I think about 35% chance a PR is targeted by N2).

I would not hide if we hit town if I was BK. He needs to publicize his opinion though by the time we are going to end the day. First game I ever ran had hider do this (without saying they were going to) and it really messed with scum, and made me realize the strength of not using actions all the time.

Also yeah, no one really made a huge case on BwB... need to think about this some.

unvote

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah, that would fuck town actually. Though I think scum is likely to play it safe and kill Venmar tonight (particularly with no doc or whatever).

Although some of your maths is incorrect. BK has less than 50% chance of hitting scum (3/8 (minus him and Venmar)). Not sure why BK has a '50% chance of dying'.

I dont think they are likely to kill Venmar since there is one PR who has softclaimed so hard I would almost consider it a scumtell if they DONT die. So 10 alive - Vemnar - BK = 8, three are scum, and one of last five die. 4/8 death chance if scum dont kill Venmar.

We got our clear, and with odd numbers I would be happy with BK being done hiding.

Vote Jackal

For the time being.

[LlamaFluff]

I dont get it. There was always the risk that BK would die night 1, same odd numbers etc, The only difference between tonight and last night is that Bk has less chance to die.

More chance. By a whole lot. Not worth losing a lynch when there is a noticeable chance of not even getting a guilty out of it.

hypo psch/det time?

No. It never is. They just claim a guilty and thats about it.

[LlamaFluff]

Guys. My vote is still on Andrew.
You all need to jump on.

I still have a town read on him although I would absolutely love to see him dead here.

If you have a guilty on him, claiming it is best. If you dont, I think he is town.

[LlamaFluff]

No Lynch is a pretty decent option that I considered earlier. I just backed off it mostly because I figured it would be a high noise result and that would just do some serious damage in the long run.

Im considering an additional gambit to that whole move, where if we have someone who is VT (and not Venmar) claim VT, and then have BK hide behind them, it does open up the "lose two" move, but it make sure both other PRs stay alive to the second day if scum take that path, and both tracker and psych can take a shot at finding scum instead of just psych.

Can happen... No lynch leaves 11 alive...

Hides behind VT -> VT killed -> BK/VT die (9 alive, Ven/track/psych alive) 2-3 clear
Hides behind VT -> other killed -> VT clear/other die (10 alive, BK/Ven(?)/VT/track(?)/Psych(?) alive) 3-5 clear
Hides behind scum -> other killed -> BK die/other die/scum caught (9 alive, Ven(?)/track(?)/Psych(?) alive) 1-3 clear, 1 scum caught

Not bad at first glance. Scum either kill the VT fakeclaiming or fakeclaim VT and die. Forces scum play a whole lot more.

Someone check to make sure im not missing anything.

Actually hah. Forgot about Thomith.

I think if we do this BK hides behind Thomith as he already claimed VT. Then either Thomith dies (path one) or Thomith is alive and confirmed scum.

[LlamaFluff]

I kinda like the force hide behind Thomith since it lets tracker hunt for scum and clears up a potential mislynch if he is town and makes sure that the tracker doesnt die if Thomith is town.

Thomith is town and we are GUARENTEED to have both other PRs aive tomorrow. If he is scum we are guarenteed to have at least one scum caught and at least one, probably two clears.

[LlamaFluff]

But the force hide behind THomith

If scum kill thomith, we learn nothing

But we eliminate a mislynch that is going to always be around. Even if I die you guys still are going to think Thomith might be scum. This way either Thomith is caught scum, or dies with BK while tracker/psych get free actions as we stay at even numbers. As my above situation run proves, scum HAVE to let both other roles action if Thomith is town. And in that case... 11 alive - track/BK/Ven/Thomith... its a situation where both PRs have seven targets to choose from... thats close to 30% chance scum is caught if Thomith is town. If psych stands to get two guilties its almost 40%.

I like those numbers.

I fully realize it means BK dies 100%, but it catches scum 100% or makes scum NOT kill PRs, leaving us with a WORST CASE scenario of a D3 opening with 9 alive and two clear... odds to three clear.

[LlamaFluff]

Also, why is Thomith a mislynch that is always around.

Really?

Do you ever think that Thomith is going to be considered clear in this game, even if im dead? Its going to probably take an innocent result on him for that to be the case. This way we either force scum to kill a player like that, or catch him and get rid of a question mark that most of us have.

I think losing BK is worth the position it will put us tomorrow. If Thomith is town, worst case both other PRs missed hitting scum and Venmar isnt VT. Thats literally the WORST position we can be in. 9 alive with two clear, and depending on results of PRs some semi-clears.

This is all up to BK though in the end.

[LlamaFluff]

No.

We arent doing ANYTHING until BK tells us what he is doing, stop voting.

[LlamaFluff]

This is stupid, why are we publicly announcing who BK will target? The mafia can just kill him and the town he is targeting.

Kinda the point to me.

I think Thomith is town, but I dont trust the rest of you not to lynch him either way by the time this is all over. If we make this move, it loses us BK but it forces scum to kill Thomith to bring down BK or BK just dies and Thomith-scum is caught.

Yes we are losing our hider if we do this, but I think the potential reward is worth it, and if you are VT we have three confirmed town tomorrow (but we arent talking about other PRs, im just making a point). I think its worth the risk because we either force the hand of scum in killing a potential mislynch or we catch scum, or a combination of the two.

[LlamaFluff]

I saw BK's plan
UNVOTE:

I only like the no-lynch if we are getting a directed hider target on someone like thomith. I don't see how BK's plan will be helpful, if he hits scum we will be losing two prs to out one scum. That is not a very fair ratio.

There are the following outcomes

1) Very good - BK lives - Possible with Track on BK
2) Good - BK died behind Thomith-scum - Track does whatever
3) Acceptable - BK and Thomith die - Track does whatever
4) OK - BK dies behind ? - Track on BK - Tracker claims and then dies
5) Disasterous - BK and ? die - Track is ?

BK doing whatever opens up very good and disasterous options. I would prefer not to do that, but if BK insists will follow.

[LlamaFluff]

There is no point in hypoclaiming tracker results.

I want to say no to the other also given the high chance of scum figuring stuff out from it and the results not being overly conclusive for us. Best we can come up with is "probably not" results. Would be like basing endgame lynch off a negative tracker (slight town tell) result, which im not happy with, while the results are kinda trustable, its not so trustable that I want to risk losing the confirmable role (more important than any innocent result).

[LlamaFluff]

Alirght. I would prefer a little more rigidity in planning but tracker is on BK.

Vote No Lynch

[LlamaFluff]

I like how scum dont kill the most likely PR.

BK is done hiding since at worst 30% of the game is clear so there are three forced kills, im thinking more likely half the game at this point. If there is any type of guilty it should be claimed and then we can break the game. Im thinking if both results are not in the cleared players we can come close to breaking the game either way

[LlamaFluff]

I would say Jackal is the best bet right now for scum.

Also the "most likely PR" thing was there is someone I think crumbed so hard that if they are not a PR they are going to be scum. Its just one of those things where I just dont know why that kill happened because I though rasp was pretty likely just VT/mafia and there was one really safe PR bet.

[LlamaFluff]

As annoying as he is, Andrew reads town to me.

Since when?

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah that 621... doesnt seem like thinking someone is town. I could maybe buy null but thats really it. Maybe I just cant see town ever thinking that they are happy lynching someone they think is town outside of a forced win situation.

[LlamaFluff]

BK doesnt hide.

Scum have four nightkills left. There are seven - tracker (?) that are possible scum so if we open up the tracker to actually catching players who are submitting the kill on TOP of what the psych has... well we are making it highly likely that scum are going to get caught by the PRs. Again, we have four lynches tops, if BK hides and dies, we ARE having a claim-counter situation... it just is opening us for a whole lot more issues.

If we lynch normally, we keep an extra lynch, as even if BK catches scum in death we are forced to nail the partners one-two, and that is far harder than normal.

Also I am talking about the PR crumbs because its rediculous that scum didnt kill the player im talking about. They basically said "Hey im PR" in the most unsubtle way and given that they are NOT one of the clears, we have four of ten clear and factoring in myself its basically an auto-win. I see no way we lose this unless Venmar-Techo is a PR pair.

[LlamaFluff]

im th inking jackal or Andrew atm

This is horrible thinking. Andrew is probably town.

Im guessing there is going to be no guilty, so I think killing Jackal is the way to go at this point.

Also I am male, my roleplaying alt has a female tag because the character is female.

[LlamaFluff]

- Why aren't you voting for Jackal if you think he is the way to go?
- What do you mean by " there is going to be no guilty ".
- You seem to be posting less content and thoughts as of compared to Day 1 and Day 2, what gives?

Thought I was voting Jackal, so I will do that now. If we have a guilty they should have claimed by now, so im just going to assume there is no guilty at this point. A psych with two innocents should claim though because its almost 100% sure that one of them are town.

Im at a meet right now, so I dont have as much time to read and post the way im comfortable doing, whether you believe it or not, I spend quite a bit of time just thinking before I do anything. Tomorrow I think everyone is going somewhere im not all that interested in though so will give this game the read I need to give it if its the case. Will see what I can get to tonight but I would expect tomorrow to put something up.

I fully acknowledge that it could be Nacho here, infact the fact that im NOT reading him as strong town has me a little on edge. Andrew is almost for sure town though. That read isnt going away without one thing in particular occuring which im pretty sure is not occuring.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Jackal

There we go.

[LlamaFluff]

Something like

~Scum
Jackal711

~Null
DLCXVI
Nachomamma8
Thomith

~Townish
Kassadin

~Town
andrew94

Is about what I am looking at right now. Ive lost a whole lot of confidence in Thomith especially since his play feels similar to a recently finished game that I was thinking he was town in but was scum. The whole VT tell still holds but im wondering if this is one of the times it misfires.

I know you said reasons too, but you will have to wait for those but any really wierd to you stuff I can answer with other reads probably.

[LlamaFluff]

Tomorrow I do this. Just got back from SoL, which ment getting done with a 12 hour drive.

@DCL - Give me more of a read on Kass then 'troll'
@Venmar - Being completely inaccurate may actually be a very slight town tell actually. I think more players tend to at least be "sorta right" enough as scum to be able to get some town credit for stuff.

[LlamaFluff]

Im a bit confused now.

DMS entry into the game is a thing of horribleness beyond all reason. Him trying to push away from a Kass lynch possibility though is odd. I want to hear more about why his read on Nacho shifted then im going to decide some stuff. Yes I never got around to this today, will put in serious effort to do so tomorrow even though im not sure its going to help the amount of feeling lost I am since im at the point where I could make a semi-decent case on everyone.

I think lynch is one of Thomith-DMS though at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

I still think a Nacho lynch is a go. Seems to be a lot of deflection away from him as a lynch option. Plus he completely dissapeared after one vote on him, and drmy is right about his scumspects. He was basically just targeting the weakest players.

Nacho, like me, has been at SoL last week, and I think im the only one who was odd enough there to keep up with all of thier games like not that much happened.

@Llama: You seemed to have done a 360 on Thomith. I know you explained it at each step of the way, but from strong towntell D1 to let's lynch D3 seems odd.

A bit of this was 391 ending where I read him wrong. At the same time though I still second guess myself since that was also an open where he breadcrumbed cop hard enough for me to bite on it, although when push came to shove backed out of claiming cop... so im not sure what exactly that means. His play feels similar in general but play around a claim feels quite different. His flip would be awesome at this point though as it would almost clear DCL in my mind.

@DMS - At what point through the game were your post made reading wise? Particlarly the shift on Nacho read, because if you are talking about the D1 twilight post thats what actually changed my read from scumish to townish on him so want to know what you saw that I apparently didnt. Defending Kass as policy lynch is horrible though, thats my biggest knee jerk reaction to what I saw from your post.

I really want to see scum QT post game to know what Rasp died, thought it was obvious claim was a troll-esq move and there were a lot of better PR shots out there.

[LlamaFluff]

@Thomith - Give me two scum reads, and out of the non-cleared, your top town read.

[LlamaFluff]

Im not sure if DMS is not reading, trolling for feigning ignorance about everything.

@DMS - How much have you read?

unvote

I need to think about this more apparently.

[LlamaFluff]

Kass is rapidly becoming a good lynch too. Just saying.

[LlamaFluff]

Kass is rapidly becoming a good lynch too. Just saying.

How so?

Gut has pulled me back to Thomith-town and that basically makes Kass scum instead of middling read based off how votes all worked out.

Plus this isnt quite what I remember Kass-town being like, they werent a good player at all but were a little less lurkey and you at least knew about where they stood on most things throughout the game. Granted that game was a little tainted by Slandaar proving why he is a good policy lynch throughout, but it still feels different.

[LlamaFluff]

If Nacho was town, this wagon would be a lot bigger right now.

If Nacho flips town someone shoot me, but this guy has to be scum.

Nacho is looking worse, but I want to see what he has to say at this point since he is a good town player and I know has not had much/any access for the last week.

Your wagon analysis of "its stalling" is a little weakened by the fact that there is no active counterwagon. Thats whats giving me some warning flags at this point. Usually if scum are trying to stop a wagon on a partner they have to have some form of a viable alternative or town will just apathy stay on scum.

He is a better lynch than a few of the uncleared players, but I would rather kill Kass at this point.

Vote Kass

he says... knowingly creating a counter wagon...

[LlamaFluff]

- So you think Nacho is a better lynch than a few of the uncleared players ( one of which is Kassadin ), but in the very same sentence you say that you would rather kill Kassadin? Clearly you just said that Nacho is a better lynch, so why go for Kassadin and pretty much say "Nevermind, Kassadin is the better lynch ", rather than your previous point of Nacho being the better lynch?

Nacho is a better lynch than a few of the uncleared means what it looks like. There are a couple of uncleareds that I think are more likely town then nacho at this point, so I would vote Nacho first. Obviously Kass is not one of these.

LlamaFluff, how will a Kassadin lynch benefit town in any way? Even if he does flip scum, what information do we get? We will be shooting in the dark once more next day phase and either me or Thomith will be dead because the confirmed townies in this game are going to damage the scums chances of survival.

Ewww...

Kass-scum can probably start putting some things together for us and at least suggesting that some (Thomith and DCL) are somewhat likely town. Either way we need Kass dead if he is scum to win, and to unlock the true power of the Psych role.

[LlamaFluff]

Except that I should be obviously town for the nightkill not being one of Venmar/Obv PR... I mean, rasp? really?... that kill almost makes me think not nacho because im not too sure he would have bit on that either.

Kass.. thomith... andrew... those I could all easily see thinking that it was a definite PR claim. I even forgot rasp had claimed PR for a little bit and thought it was a blind "hit BKs target" shot.

[LlamaFluff]

I just think its a rediculous kill and something that I would have essentially refused to let partners make if I was scum. There was you and one other and thats where the 'good kill' list essentially ended, and the 'one other' could be scum that I am picking up fake PR crumbs from and reacting that way. I make odd kills at times and have willingly let confirmed town live because there were bigger threats, but the worst case scenario for me-scum is rasp who is psych and catches a partner. More likely she would be the currently non-threat tracker or VT who is easily lynchable. Not worth the risk to kill a possible mislynch on a maybe claim when there are good PR shots who will not be easy to lynch either way.

If you pick apart the early wagon on Thomith though, it points to Kass-scum unless you think the second wind of Thomith was heavily bussing from partners and the inital push was all town. I dont think thats a likely assessment of what really happened, so it gives some scum points to Kass-town, and I think that Thomith still may be town in the end of all of this just because he isnt going for the easy stuff right now. Yeah he could be scum with Nacho and it could be part of why he is playing the way he is, but a DCL lynch is not going to be something he is very apt to pull off, and its more likely to attract DCL to Thomith which would end poorly for him.

So if I call Thomith town, it makes Kass probably scum. When you look at Kass really doing next to nothing productive this game, it doesnt match up with slap fighty-Kass-town that I have seen in the past. She is really staying under the radar in this game, and seems to be going with popular opinion more than not, as we see her to suspects being andrew-thomith-jackal. Also the drop of Jackal due to DMS replacing is pretty meh... apparently being replaced is a towntell? Dunno.

Im not saying Nacho is for sure town, and Kass-Nacho works great as a pairing. I just think that Kass is a better lynch because it would essentially take DCL and Thomith of of the "lynchable" pool, which would be a pain for scum to have to deal with if they are both town.

Course Kass doing this has me scratching my head but eh...

[LlamaFluff]

Nacho's gradual drop of activity is also something to note.

His drop off in activity is fully expected given the meet.

Try again.

Really the only defense to this wagon is me (who is town) and DCL (who I think is town) and everyone else is just like "oh yeah its a decent lynch" which makes me feel like its going to be a mislynch here. You know what lynches are actually running into resistance? DMS. Kass. Thomith.

THOSE are where the "oh scum are stalling" claims should be going. Basically no one who is unclear WANTS a nacho lynch as their first choice... so that makes it what... a six player scumteam? No one is giving reasoning, and thats why nothing is happening. Someone give a case and I may actually think that this transcends "lurking" but as far as I can tell, it doesnt and im going to pick it apart brick by brick if you are going to try and push a lynch through with that dreck when we only have one mislynch available.

Kass is the play because they are almost for sure getting lynched before this game is over. I just would rather have it be now because im going to hear more of this "oh they are just a lurky VI" arguement as to why they cant be scum. Frankly that arguement was bull a few years ago when I first semi-melted down about it and its still bull now. Yes there are tells that work for IDing VIs and those that dont but when I am actually giving reasons for him to be scum and I get met with that im going to get ancy because im getting ignored which is one thing I do NOT like to have happen.

Give a nacho case or at least give me a solid reason as to why my Kass case is bad.

[LlamaFluff]

I think a psych who has two negative reads in the uncleared should claim since it exceedingly unlikely for both of those players to be scum.

Im still waiting for that nacho case.

[LlamaFluff]

If they thought it was best to claim they would have by now. Given what im saying its either not me, a result of mine is dead/cleared, or im the detective and dont think its smart to claim.

Really unless there is a condeming result, they probably shouldnt claim unless its two innocents as a psych which suggests not scum together heavily as if scum doesnt know what they are up against sticking to the same player submitting kills is the safe move since if its a detective they dont have multiple players that are going to be catchable that fast, while as psych one gets caught but after that psych becomes a null threat.

We are all going to claim VT here so its just a pointless practice. I still personally think its time to retire BK and let the tracker have some fun.

[LlamaFluff]

I like how you're discouraging the Psyche from doing so. Stop that.

There are seven uncleared players at this point yes?

With that many and removing the psych there is going to be one false negative and two true positives in all likelyhood. This means two negatives mean they are not scum together. Given only one result though, its about a 20% (or greater) chance of being a false positive. Thats high to me for risking outting a psych if thats all that left. Yes im explicitly discouraging any psych claim that does not have to negative results.

Detective is even worse and should not claim under any circumstance since even though the chance is low (5%?) they can have two false results on two scum. Claiming without two uncleared results is just outting a role for a mild town tell. Claiming WITH two eliminates a pairing and still are mild town tells. Not strong, I think they fall below closed setup tracker theory, but still existant.

@Venmar - I would be happy if he stopped hiding and died. If you think about it for a second the reasoning should be somewhat obvious for why im at least somewhat ok with that type of event. Far worse things can happen.

Now if you guys want the psych to claim explicitly for the sake of trying to break the setup, thats a different matter (heck I think I can point them out to you if you want me to force them to claim). That works fine though if you would rather do things that way. I just was thinking you wanted information and chances are information they would give is simply unreliable or they would have outted it already.

[LlamaFluff]

Tell me Llama, what is more powerful, Hider role or Psych/Detective role?

And why.

At this point in the game? Psych because they can start partially clearing town. Hider is a better early game role that as the ratio of town to scum alive dips becomes more of a liability. Its like the inverse of a town RBer that is going to more likely damage the town the first few nights but be strong if it makes it past a scum lynch.

@Llama, The results of the Psyche/Detective are inconsequential unless he has a guilty. I want him to claim to further PoE the scum. I doubt one more night of results from the Psyche/Detective will catch scum, and a claim in Lylo will be taken with a grain of salt.

Two innocents from a psych means that the players are essentially cleared as scum with eachother to the extent where I would almost be fine treating it as a cop innocent on one if the other flips scum. Only way this is not true is if psych hit scum submitting the kill both nights, a statistical improbaility even IF scum actually mix up who sent in the kill.

[LlamaFluff]

So the crumb was correct.

I actually thought Llama was bluffing it to get you get another NK mislead. I'm guessing then you tracked me night 2.

Guilty on who?

Yeah no kidding it was obviously andrew which is why the kill shocked me... it had been since that whole "rolefishing" exchange with him where I was just making sure I was reading him right and then could just brush him aside as completely obv-town from there on out.

Andrew should not claim WHAT he is but he should claim who it is on since there is a *tiny* chance scum actually had two different players submit kills.

Once everyone says they are not countering (today is your only chance to) we can lynch who he says.

[LlamaFluff]

I will laugh if he says you LlamaFluff. I will laugh.

If he does he is scum... and given his turnaround on me im probably his N1 target who is innocent.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah, and as I think about it more and more... a false result probably means gambiting town instead of scum since there is no way scum would bus because it still creates a 1v1 outside of a lylo situation for scum where even getting a mislynch still would result in a F3...

[LlamaFluff]

Final three. If andrew is scum bussing a partner its to have the third member have a F3 after...

partner lynch
XXX death
Psych lynch
YYY death
andrew lynch
ZZZ death
-probably no lynch-
??? death

Where last scum has a quick ticket to final three (F3) if andrew is bussing a partner here. Either way its overly reckless to do something like that with the psych and tracker hidden so andrew is town.

[LlamaFluff]

But would andrew consider it in this detail?

It still leaves a scum in lylo and all conftowns dead though, right?

andrew doesnt convey it that much through his posts, but he isnt incompetent and I think this mistake is below him.

Depends what happens with BK and who tracker is. If BK hits third scum tonight it would auto-win the game for town if andrew is bussing.

As I already said, the strength of the pysch and the tracker is magnified as the playerlist drops since the reliability of their results being able to partially clear players is increased.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually if andrew is a psych with a negative on me im clear too so thats kinda awesome.

Either way the only way we could possibly lose this is if we mislynch twice in a group of five.

I think that BK actually needs to hide again. If we make the even assumption andrew didnt investigate me...

Lynch andrew target
-night 9 alive/2 scum/5 clear-
BK hides behind me
Kass tracks whoever
andrew targets whoever

Spoiler: Taget is town

Scum kills target (me)
BK dies
I die
Kass/Andrew each have chance of guilty
-day 7 alive/2 scum/4 clear-

Spoiler: Target is scum

BK dies
Kass/Andrew dies
Scum is caught
-day 7 alive/2 scum/3 clear/1 scum caught
--scum lynch
--night 6 alive/1 scum/3 clear
---day 5 alive/1 scum/2 clear

Good win chance there

So we force BK to hide and CALL his target. He does not get tracked

If he hits town, we win as scum need to kill his target turning a mislynch into a NK. If he hits scum, its still probably a win since we caught another scum right there. It just depends on what andrew is really and who is target is. If he targeted me N1 we now have six clear.

Scum missed only chance they had for a win when they didnt kill andrew.

[LlamaFluff]

Its called proxying votes and commonly isnt allowed due to general confusion it creates.

[LlamaFluff]

Oh and if this doesnt get resolved tomorrow I wont be around again until right before deadline given a brief trip I have to take.

[LlamaFluff]

claim: phys/det with a guilty.

And.... night one.... ??

[LlamaFluff]

No hide tonight. It drops it to 8 alive with Kass dead, small chance of andrew having a guilty. Hiding basically is using the mislynch at this point. If there is one scum left hiding is a worthwhile gamble though because if scum is hit thats the game.

After that I think hiding is the right move since the scum pool is lowered.

I would say Thomith is best chance for town out of nacho/DMS/Thomith at this point. Reaction from DCL is a little awkward for Thomith to be scum but as that last game with Thomith proved stranger things can happen. For those not in that game I thought I saw a cop breadcrumb in an open, soft claimed pretty hard cop with a guilty on a player who was scum, and one of the other scum responded by pushing hard on their other partner.

Its a mild tell I think.

If andrew is detective - I am scum only if I havent killed
If andrew is psych - I am scum only if I killed N2

Realistically though, I still think it should be obvious im town because andrew is alive. I think if you go back its obvious the exact point that I noticed he was a PR (and even what PR he was). The other one I was wrong on, thought Venmar was tracker for some reason.

[LlamaFluff]

llama (post 1130) - where did you make it obvious you saw andrew was a PR?

It was right around where I accused him of rolefishing that I saw him as either scum or the psych role. That type of response only would come from someone who is trying to figure out if im claiming or not either to know if they should NK me, or if they should counter. Know its WIFOM, but I would have hard pushed that lynch through especially over Rasp.

If I was scum Rasp I know would probably be a mislynch if she was not a PR, andrew would have been maybe a lylo mislynch if that, and was good PR chance through his behavior, so the choice of NK would have been simple since andrew even as VT was an acceptable kill at that point in the game for scum.

[LlamaFluff]

Awesome.

Now we wait for the Kass result and then for the andrew "is it a guilty" result.

I want it to be Kass here but its probably Nacho despite the immense wierdness from Kass actions.

[LlamaFluff]

Its probably Nacho-DMS

DMS needs to unvote so there is zero chance of a hammer without hearing real tracker/andrew results.

Main reason its probably Nacho is he should have countered yesterday so we lynch Kass and there is no safe scum kill submittal player. I think he would have noticed not countering simply leaves Kass as the obvious kill sender making him useless.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Nacho

Simple enough now.

[LlamaFluff]

Andrew and Kass both need to target in me/DMS/Thomith for the forced win since its a detective.

One that is alive will have caught/cleared someone, and we have a mislynch to burn so its a simple win.

[LlamaFluff]

If they want to kill Kass on the offchance andrew is lying im cool with it since even if he is lying and is psych im essentially clear unless you want to argue that I made the N2 and only the N2 kill which is just a bad theory to start. Im not going to make a kill I dont want to and break what is standard play on what should be done. Either way andrew is the bigger scumhunting threat than Kass so its going to be a massive gamble if they want to go for Kass in the offchance it only creates a semi-clear.

Also yes. If andrew/kass get a negative it means whoever they targeted couldnt have made the kill so any kill occuring clears a player or catches last scum. Thing is just whoever lives gives us an alignment on one of us.

[LlamaFluff]

It sadly probably is... I just dont want it to be so am going to be obstinant a bit longer.

[LlamaFluff]

No because it means I cant read Thomith at all, and I thought I sorta could until late.

[LlamaFluff]

Mmmh ok.

Im going to play from your perspective right now and just pull out my index cards that I use at times.

We are going to assume that one of Kass/Andrew dies, and that andrew is a detective at this point in time. This means that whoever submits the kill will be noticed by either player.

There are three cards upside down, one is marked differently. When a kill occurs, we are able to flip one card instantly because its who the living player targeted. If the flip is scum, we catch scum. If the flip is town, it is assured to us that they did not submit the kill. Due to the fact that they did not submit the kill, they are confirmed town since only one scum remains at this point. If they did submit the kill, they would be caught. However a kill occured so they are cleared from having the ability to have performed it. Therefore we would enter tomorrow with only two cards left unknown if a kill occurs, and we have a forced win.

If scum no lynch, all cards are still unflipped, we lynch one (flip it) and then have the same situation as before but with two cards, again a NK that is not accompanied by a guilty means the last player is scum as it clears someone again.

This is the reason that town tracker and town RBer are roles that grow infinately more powerful as the game goes on.

It doesnt matter who they target, as long as they each attempt to flip one of the three cards that could be the marked one. It either catches that card or clears it as town, only thing that differs is who is alive at the end. Only way we lose this if Nacho is scum is if BK lied about a result.

[LlamaFluff]

yea sounds easy, can we own nacho already pls?

me and kass can both check llama?

Any of the three. Its a forced win no matter who lives between you two and who its on as long as the result is in us.

Only thing that changes is how its a forced win really.

[LlamaFluff]

My gut going into D3 told me Llama/DCL/Nacho were the scumteam. I managed to second guess this all the way through

If Llama is the last scum, imma be happy with the ole gutometer.

I really like this setup but I do feel it is somewhat too much townsided.

Well im still town so thats not completely right.

I would have been able to convince nacho easily of the andrew kill since I was actually at the same place as him during part of the night.

andrew/Kass just have to target between me/thomith/DMS and its a forced win.

This setup is somewhat town sided though but its problem is breakable potential as is the case with most open games. Scum getting unlucky with actions can put them in an almost forced loss position. Probably town takes 2/3 or so of this, if hider lives twice like it happened though the number goes way up.

I would say hider/tracker/psych vs 3 goon is balanced to slightly town sided in theory

[LlamaFluff]

andrew claim results time

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Thomith

Cool

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

Fine... but andrew has no reason to lie when its a forced win if he tells the truth.

[LlamaFluff]

Andrew just needs to claim and list all of his actions because if he is Psych and just BSing im essentially clear unless you want to argue I made the N2 kill after skipping the N1 kill. If he is detective and gambling he needs to tell us the real result just so its a forced win.

Gamiting as PR is dangerous, when its a forced win it just shouldnt be happening either way.

[LlamaFluff]

I shouldnt have had to second guess roles, but if you were lying and it was DMS as scum you would eat the kill and that probably would have cost us the game

Vote Thomith

[LlamaFluff]

I think some of my vibe on Llama was biased towards his wiki saying he doesn't get lynched much as scum, and I wanted to catch him out.

Just because I dont get lynched as scum doesnt mean I do get lynched as town. Its pretty rare for me to catch flack regardless of alignment, just much more rare as scum because I watch stuff a lot closer.

Oh well... this makes VT tell something like 10-1... still like it but I think site meta shift is slowly eroding its strength.

SoL sorta sapped a whole lot of what I had left for interest in the game. Rasp kill still really confused me, I actually thought it was scum going for killing who BK hid behind for a while there.

I think with this strategy the game is biased to town, but hitting the amount of VT and living each time that BK did is a rare occurance. With all that happening scum essentially were forced into a scenario where they only could even lynch a few players.