NY 159: RUST game over

[Rob14]

used my block on peregrine last night

angrypidgeon is on /ignore mode for the rest of this game

i'll lynch darthe, josh lyman, or pyro in something like that order, and despite rob thinking his gambit "clears" malp he still needs to die

vote: darthe

/unignore AP, as his question is extremely valid. Please respond to it.

Re-read his question, and it's actually kind of stupid. Nevermind. As you were.

JK on you doesn't clear you because you claimed you had done a night action, proving you lied. Proof of a lie will never clear you. The track on PH does not clear him, though. He's town for other reasons.

[Rob14]

It's blatantly wrong, but what's the town motivation?

[Rob14]

Meant scum motivation, my bad.

[Rob14]

/ignore

i want to get lynched today so everyone can see how full retard it is to claim a guilty on someone as a vanilla townie. i will do nothing to stop my lynch. you can all thank angrypidgeon tomorrow when rob dies tonight and he's left to clean up the mess.

Not town. Not town at all.

Vote rofl

@Mod - What's the status of Josh Lyman on prods/replace?

[Rob14]

Rofl, if you are actually town, then you're acting like an idiot. You're creating yourself as a distraction to the town, even if you are actually town, which gets more and more doubtful with each post. I wouldn't want you anywhere near LyLo regardless of your alignment based on your current play. Town-rofl getting lynched because he's posting in a scummy manner doesn't prove to town that AP's gambit was bad the day before. It's not even related.

[Rob14]

And for the record, on my list of reads coming into this day, you were listed as leaning town despite the last day. You need to understand that my vote on you is because of your stupid posts this day, not anything related to AP's gambit yesterday. Your reaction to everything continues to be anti-town.

[Rob14]

Eh, re-read rofl a bit and he's town. He's acting childish, but he's still town. He tunnels BC and Zab hard on Day 1 and doesn't give a shit what anyone thinks about it. He eventually slips onto the DC wagon with the stipulation in the voting post that he demands a Zab lynch the next day. There's no scum reason behind trying to keep attention on Zab when ANOTHER of your scum-partners is about to be lynched. That would put you two down by Day 3. It would be an easy move to have picked on BC rather than Zab in that post, and it would have fit with his play from earlier even. Ignoring an opportunity to keep pressure on a town member in favor of pressuring and keeping attention on a scum member, especially when the scum team are already losing a guy Day 1, doesn't make any sense. There's no motivation for it.

Unvote

Now, do you have any insight on anything rofl? Can we have your current reads?

P-edit: And your last post confirms my above thoughts more. What do you think of AP at this point?

[Rob14]

Also, for the love of god, unvote yourself rofl.

[Rob14]

By the way, Josh Lyman and Paid Pyro, claims now. Everyone else has already.

[Rob14]

Why Darthe?

[Rob14]

I think we have already discussed my thoughts on CKD. Why did you choose to wait to vote me until after you were asked that? You have brought up points before and even mentioned me in this phase already as your most likely. Seems like you could have voted then.

i vote you. then i voted myself. now i'm voting you again.

For some reason, this post made me laugh hysterically.

[Rob14]

VOTE: Darthe

Rob, I think you deserve a best town performance nomination regardless of what happens here.

Not sure what nomination process you're referring to, but it sounds like a compliment. So thanks!

Also, I'm ignoring all gambit reactions, which is why I'm back to questionable-Darthe. They're too unreliable.

[Rob14]

We should nominate drmy as "most enjoyable player" for the lulz.

[Rob14]

Hmm. I think re-ISOing based on recent flips is a good choice.

I'm really sleepy, so if anyone is conf-town right now just tell me because I'm not seeing anything like that.

No night actions (other than my vig) have been claimed. So no new conf-town.

[Rob14]

Maybe I'm wrong about this, but what do you feel about this:

Assuming one scum is left and Josh hasn't logged in since Day 2, we can conclude he is town because someone sent in the NK.

[Rob14]

Prohawk why Josh over me.

Cheery, I admit I missed most of D3. It went by so fast, it's no excuse.... but by the time I would get on line I would have so much to catch up on I spent most of my time trying to catch up before I felt I could post. Honestly, I'm still pretty far behind because I'm not going to spend a bunch of time reading if I'm NKed. Soooo.. What do you want to know, so you can clarify my spot?


With the claims/fake claims how is malp conftown?

Isn't AP "not scum" based on someones claim (town or SK). Rob you are a JOAT with a one shot correct?

Rob I've claimed.... Look at my iso and you'll see it..... ummm you might miss it since my ISO is soooooo long.

I'm JOAT with one-shot cop, one-shot vig. It's all used up, so consider me a vanilla townie for the rest of the game.

[Rob14]

@ PP - He has even less info in his ISO than you do, but we all have to start somewhere.

@Rob - This is assuming that he can't send in a kill from the QT. You are also assuming that there is only one more scum slot left?

Looking more closely at times, he should have been replaced already.... so vote stays until his replacement arrives.

Assuming one scum left because there are normally ~25% players as anti-town, so 4.25 scum in a 17 person game = 4 scum. Five scum are unlikely considering town miller (weakening town) and scum PRs (JOAT and doctor are significant).

[Rob14]

Prohawk why Josh over me.

Cheery, I admit I missed most of D3. It went by so fast, it's no excuse.... but by the time I would get on line I would have so much to catch up on I spent most of my time trying to catch up before I felt I could post. Honestly, I'm still pretty far behind because I'm not going to spend a bunch of time reading if I'm NKed. Soooo.. What do you want to know, so you can clarify my spot?


With the claims/fake claims how is malp conftown?

Isn't AP "not scum" based on someones claim (town or SK). Rob you are a JOAT with a one shot correct?

Rob I've claimed.... Look at my iso and you'll see it..... ummm you might miss it since my ISO is soooooo long.

I assumed you hadn't claimed because, well, you haven't been here much. Can you catch up and give reads? I promise we won't end this day until you do if you commit to getting us reads within a week. That way you aren't wasting time.

[Rob14]

Guys, the last scum is still in Darthe, Malp, Rofl. Its literally one of those.

Cheery, that quote actually made me think hes scum. Rofl's entire interaction with the Dcore wagon is silly considering his lack of concern about Dcore up until the point he became a wagon.

He voted for D-Core and at the same time said that he wanted to lynch Zab tomorrow, keeping momentum on Zab alive. Why would scum ever do that? He's pushing to have two less partners by Day 3. That has some pretty intense town motivation and no scum motivation.

[Rob14]

Darthe is extremely pingy. If I ignore my prior opinion about his gambit reaction (which rofl/AP did a pretty good job convincing me that it was not a good way to form a read), then he's the scummiest person left alive.

[Rob14]

My Reads, for all to see:

Definite Town: Me, AP, rofl, Rev
Highly Probable Town: ProHawk, Josh Lyman (based on what I said earlier), Cheery
Possible Scum (basically meaning "not a town read" at this point): Mal, PP
Probable Scum: Darthe

[Rob14]

And before you ask "why no Darthe vote?!?!?!?"

I will not be voting while waiting for PP's catch-up, because I do not want a lynch during that time. If a lynch were to occur during that time, then I will have strong words for the Darthe wagon.

[Rob14]

He voted for D-Core and at the same time said that he wanted to lynch Zab tomorrow, keeping momentum on Zab alive. Why would scum ever do that? He's pushing to have two less partners by Day 3. That has some pretty intense town motivation and no scum motivation.

The hilarious part is the obvious scum motivation.

Which is?

[Rob14]

That you think hes town.

It's still a stupid move to get two of your partners killed in the first two days when you don't know about vigs, SKs, and cops who could kill/investigate you. By your logic, I have an insane scum motivation to have pushed for the lynch of DC and CKD so hard.

[Rob14]

You can't clear someone because they "must have bussed too hard"

Gah, I remember seeing some quote from rofl in another game about how he dislikes playing scum and typically busses hard anyways. Can't find it, but w/e.

Why is your read on me town? What have I done differently than rofl this game?

[Rob14]

@Pyro:

DC's ISO #19 added Zab to his town list, which is the second scum on the list. I wouldn't expect him to put ALL his scum-buddies on his town list because that's just too stupid for anyone. If he did, then Darthe is scum. I don't like looking at the reads of scum near their lynch, though, because that gets really WIFOM really fast.

Taz did a gambit that he said made Darthe look town. At the time, I agreed. Rofl and AP gave reasons why that is incorrect, and after considering them, I think they're valid. I don't think Tazaro's gambit gave any usable information, other than maybe how the bandwagon developed.

Look at Rev's avatar. Of course he makes drunk posts. /badhumor

Mal is not clear town, but he's not clear scum either. I think he's possible scum still, but not our most likely option. That would be Darthe at this point, I would think.

I like Pyro for town based on that last post. I don't know why you didn't make such a catch-up earlier. The prior lack of activity (and more importantly his stated reasoning for it) is the only hang-up I have on considering you a town read.

Unless something drastically new develops, here is our next two lynches and reasons why:

Darthe - likely scum
Mal - possible scum and also need no millers in LyLo if it develops

[Rob14]

Yeah, guys I do not know where the idea has come from here that I was cleared but I haven't been by anyone. Malp has been on people's scumdar all game but we haven't heard from him in a while so I am interested in what he has to say before placing a vote.

I'd like to see you do a detailed ISO of mal. I know it may have been done in the past, but start fresh.

[Rob14]

EBWOP: Done in the past by others, not by you.

[Rob14]

He couldn't have done that AP. Drmy was obviously killed for being doc, which wasn't revealed until a day after Josh had logged off. How could he have submitted that kill in advance?

[Rob14]

CKD didn't clear him, obviously, but his actions are town. Look at my explanation of this. I wrote a wall on him at one point.

[Rob14]

I'm tired of people saying ProHawk is scum, so here's why he isn't:

Rob, you have a few good points against BloodCovenant, except for one part. Wouldn't scum try to avoid each other more than make connections with each other? Do you really think that scum would make two connections back and forth to sacrifice the other scum-partner should one flip scum?

While this does not exonerate BC or Zabriel, I think it does make it not so fairly obvious as you say it is.

He seems to defend BC and Zab. Looks suspicious, right?

I think I can see it now.

VOTE: zabriel

Wow. Miller claim already.

Seems legit. BC=Obvtown

.

I was mostly commenting on how he was claiming miller in first post, and that's like one of two schools of thought on how to play Miller. But it was so to the letter it was just kind of funny.

I also wasn't sure if it was a legit claim or not.

These two posts do not equate.

Nevermind, it doesn't look suspicious at all. I re-explained my points about Zab and BC and he agreed and hopped on voting for Zab. If scum was going to try to help out his buddies BC and Zab, then he would stick to his guns, at least until it seemed like vastly more people were against Zab/BC than for them. He wouldn't re-evaluate and switch from being on Zab/BV's side to bussing after only a re-explanation of past points against Zab and very little other change in the situation. It wouldn't make sense. Only town would be willing to adjust their views in this situation because they're willing to re-ISO and adjust views if they see something new, which he did.

We're 5 days into the game, which is less that halfway through this phase, why are you so eager to to finish the day?
and why do you want a pile of dead bodies?

As much as it seems bad on the surface, it fits with his style of play, and seems to echo much of the sentiment of players I have seen here (from the little I have seen). I am willing to compromise on a DC lynch after an eval of ISO, particularly of Post #166, however, I still feel we should be lynching zabriel.

@drmy and Rob, any consensus as to when you two want the day to end?

Why would scum call out both of his partners in one post? If people are going to switch over to a wagon on DC, BussingScum-ProHawk would be hopping wagons and hoping everyone forgets about Zab so that he doesn't lose TWO scum-partners. He isn't going to be thinking "well, it seems like people are going to lynch a partner no matter what,

so let's keep drawing attention to both in all of my posts."

Do you guys see how that would make no sense at all from a scum POV?

Completely agree, don't counterclaim until later in the game. That way in the off chance he is telling the truth about being cop, we don't mis-lynch him and scum would be forced to kill him.

Now, on to the dreaded "other scum" post. It seems to be the source of most reads on ProHawk. People conveniently forget to read the above post, which explains why he didn't want a lynch of DC. If DC is actually a cop, mafia will kill him that night for sure. If not that night, the next. No scum-team wants a live claimed cop. Even if it creates a possible future mislynch, the cop role can help clear townies and find scum very easily after it flips and the person is proved cop, as long as the cop posts investigation results in-thread before they're lynched. If DC is scum, then he wouldn't be killed by mafia (obviously). This means that we would lynch him on Day 2 or 3 because the fact that he was still alive would confirm him as scum.

This makes absolutely 100% perfect sense.

Frankly, if I had seen this post and not been tunneling like never before, I would have probably unvoted DC because we would have been able to lynch another ObvScum and have either a cop still alive or a confirmed scum as our Day 2-3 lynch. There's no down-side to leaving him for a day or two and so much potential upside in having a live cop. As this post explains why he said, "onto the other scum," the prior comment is no longer scummy because his logic is flawless.

-----

Now, everyone, stop saying ProHawk is scum and get back to lynching millers.

This was during Day 2, so it only responds to criticisms of him from that point backwards.

[Rob14]

EBWOP: It also assumed BC scum, which is now known to be false, but that doesn't really weaken any points except the first.

[Rob14]

Jesus can't you people hide walls in spoilers?

This. Also, I make a policy of not reading large walls unless they have commentary attached. If you want me to re-read 20-30 posts, then tell me your thoughts on them and I happily will. Otherwise, yeah....no.

[Rob14]

Unvote, vote mal

In the words of BC all those days ago (RIP), found scum. Let me paraphrase the conversation that just happened:

ProHawk: I agree with Rob's reasoning on Mal, but disagree about Darthe. I'll vote mal.
Mal: Rob said I could be either town or scum and I wasn't the most likely to be scum, and you voted me. You must be buddying/sheeping Rob even though you didn't follow his reads! You're suspicious, so I'll look at Cheery instead.
ProHawk: Mal, your role makes it important that we lynch you eventually. Also, Rob has a good track record and is the best town in the game. (Note from editor: slight bias present)
AP: *Incoherent post because he fails to identify which "you" he's talking to*
Mal: Yeah, I read Darthe's quotes. You know I did for real because I didn't directly respond to any of them. Because I took time to allegedly do this, you should give me heaps of town cred. Please and thanks. Now ProHawk, despite me saying you were buddying earlier, I'm going to complain about you not following Rob's reads exactly and essentially say you're not looking scummy enough to fit my argument. (Note from editor: seriously, lolwut?)
ProHawk: Your last post regarding me literally made no sense.
Mal: Well, I'm losing this argument, so I'm going to sleep.

Seriously, this is one of the most scummy exchanges in the game yet.

[Rob14]

Blah, blah, blah, don't hammer mal before I wake up. Other than that, feel free to place him on L-1. I want to see his response to this before the hammer.

[Rob14]

^Agreed, which is kind of why I asked for no hammer. This day should last a week, minimum. Hopefully Lyman stops dodging prods or contributes, because seriously, I absolutely hate that he has taken up space in this game for so long.

[Rob14]

(myself included, I will bring up both good and bad points)

It's this type of shit that keeps you in my top 2 for lynch candidates. Scum is in {Darthe, mal}.

[Rob14]

What is it about that that bothers you guys around here? Most people would see not including yourself as slanted because it ignores the influence of your role where I play most of my games. Also, is their any particular way that you all manage to do ISO's besides a multiquote?

If you're town, then it is not a good use of your time to ISO yourself because it does not help you find scum. You should only respond to specific criticisms against yourself.

[Rob14]

Unvote

Not because my opinion of mal has changed (it hasn't), but because I don't want the day to end early. Let's get some inactives in here!

[Rob14]

My other game happened. It's an active game so I can't talk about it, but I remembered an event that occurred in it that makes me really not want to have anyone at L-1 unless we're hammering.

[Rob14]

Also, the inactives are Paid Pyro and Josh Lyman. Lyman more than PP, since PP's been in a bit. I'm hoping for a few more insights from both before we end the day.

[Rob14]

It is interesting to me that you wish to hear from Lyman.

Why would anyone

not

want to hear from Lyman? My current read on him is based on meta-game bullshit. I'm assuming because he didn't log-in and that he's the only scum and that a kill happened that he's town. While I think this is good enough to not enact a "lynch all lurkers" policy, I'd rather have in-game posts to form a read off of than meta-game assumptions. There are three ways I can think of off the top of my head how I could be wrong about Lyman.

If he's scum, I'd like to see him post so I can figure that out. If he's town, I'd like to see him post so he can contribute and hopefully provide new insights. There's no reason why any town member would ever

not

want more posting from

anyone

.

[Rob14]

What is it about that that bothers you guys around here? Most people would see not including yourself as slanted because it ignores the influence of your role where I play most of my games. Also, is their any particular way that you all manage to do ISO's besides a multiquote?

Why do you care about analyzing yourself? If you are town then you know your alignment and don't care. If you are scum, then it looks like you are going for towncred by being apathetic about your posts intentionally.

That being said, I kind of think you are town right now.

Why?

[Rob14]

replacing Josh Lyman

I love you.

[Rob14]

We are now waiting to end this day until Josh Lyman's replacement is here and caught up.

[Rob14]

Welcome, DrippingGoofball.

When do you think you can be caught up (as in reading through the entire thread - I know it's a daunting task)?

[Rob14]

/ignore

i want to get lynched today so everyone can see how full retard it is to claim a guilty on someone as a vanilla townie. i will do nothing to stop my lynch. you can all thank angrypidgeon tomorrow when rob dies tonight and he's left to clean up the mess.

It's not him.

WIFOM

[Rob14]

I think the scum is this guy:

Cheery Dog - 1-Shot Gunsmith

Why?

[Rob14]

I have other things to say on the topic of Cheery, but let me pose this question first: Why did you use your gunsmith on AP?

[Rob14]

Keep in mind CKD could have had different powers than what he told us, just for the record. Scum lie.

[Rob14]

Reasoning on Darthe, please. I agree, but would like to see how you reached that conclusion.

[Rob14]

Lazy, perhaps. Mafia, no.

Actually, in my experience, lazy = scum or noobtown. In the past, you've claimed to have experience, so if you admit that you've been playing lazily in this game, I'm leaning scum (not that I wasn't already leaning that way).

[Rob14]

So if I flip miller that means some PR is claiming VT????

Just to clarify, everyone seems to agree that if all claims are true then this setup is very scum-sided. We know all scum roles that flipped must be real (duh), so that means town must be more powerful than it seems. Thoughts on this?

I think that we have one of two things happening here.

1) A PR is lying about being a VT. If so, you're stupid. Claim correctly.
2) If the above isn't the case, then either a VT, mal, or cheery is scum due to them having the least powerful roles. Possibly also rofl.

I don't think this role analysis will get us that far, to be honest. Let's focus on gameplay.

[Rob14]

We don't need to worry about lynching mal right now, because he'll be our lynch tomorrow if we're still around by then. He won't make it to LyLo due to his claim and general scumminess. No reason to waste a lynch today on someone we'll get tomorrow or the day after for sure (definitely before LyLo). We can get a lot more information by lynching someone else who's scummy.

Vote Darthe

For reasons stated earlier and general scumminess.

[Rob14]

We don't need to worry about lynching mal right now, because he'll be our lynch tomorrow if we're still around by then. He won't make it to LyLo due to his claim and general scumminess. No reason to waste a lynch today on someone we'll get tomorrow or the day after for sure (definitely before LyLo). We can get a lot more information by lynching someone else who's scummy.

Vote Darthe

For reasons stated earlier and general scumminess.

we can also vote darte another day, which should a miller-claimed scumbag have to wait a few days?

Darthe could potentially slip under the radar, as could any other person who looks scummy now. Millers cannot. We'll eventually catch up with them no matter what because they will never make it to LyLo.

[Rob14]

Cheery is not getting my vote while Darthe still lives. Darthe has been scummy right from the beginning.

[Rob14]

Also, DC didn't play well. Full stop. His play was BAD. I wouldn't put it past him to make that post if Darthe is scum.

P-edit: We shouldn't lynch DGB today because she hasn't had enough time to come off as definitively scummy or town. Even if her early posts were semi-scummy (I don't think they were at all), it's always possible to look town as scum or scum as town within a few posts. Her posting history cannot have established the types of patterns necessary to find scum because it's too short. Let's look at her Day 5-6 when we there's something there to look at.

[Rob14]

EBWOP: Obviously, I was referring to #1593 by AP in the first part of my above post.

[Rob14]

Cheery, why didn't you use your 1-shot ability on Night 1 to check out a miller?

[Rob14]

So you had the only ability in game (you may not have known this, but it's unlikely that a second gunsmith exists, so you must have assumed it) that could verify that a miller is lying. Instead of using this Night 1 when there were no confirmed vigs, and very well may not have been any in the game, you didn't use it at all. At the same time, you

had

to use it Night 2 because you wanted it used by that time, despite it being very unlikely that you were going to die. You weren't on anyone's radar. You didn't want to use it on a miller because they had a good chance of dying at night, so you used it on AP, someone who would undoubtedly be on the mafia's "to-kill" list. I mean seriously, he was obv-town. There were so many better people to target with gunsmith that were unlikely to be killed at night.

After re-reading your ISO and thinking this through a bit, your play doesn't make sense. At all. I wouldn't mind a lynch of you the day after Darthe if he doesn't flip scum. It's very possible that you decided to claim gunsmith because AP had just claimed a guilty on rofl (someone you knew wasn't guilty as scum) and wanted to sneak in a quick lynch that would set up an easy AP-lynch the next day despite AP playing very townish. This would not be a bad strategy by any stretch of the imagination.

[Rob14]

And immediately jumped off of him in ISO #13-14 for the stupidest of reasons.

[Rob14]

Does cop come up as guilty to a gunsmith? I thought they didn't.

[Rob14]

Is there any compelling reason at this point to keep this day going? If not let's lynch someone in {Darthe, mal} and be done with it. Darthe is preferred.

[Rob14]

What's your full opinion on Darthe, DGB?

Also, AP, you're blatantly wrong, in my opinion. What on earth led you to your conclusion?

[Rob14]

Message for all my games:

V/LA until Sunday evening because I'm home from college for a day and a half and will be spending time with family.

Message for specifically this game:

Lynch Darthe while I'm gone. I will also accept mal's lynch.

[Rob14]

What's your full opinion on Darthe, DGB?

Also, AP, you're blatantly wrong, in my opinion. What on earth led you to your conclusion?

Stop trying to distract me from Cheeryscum.

I asked you for an opinion on a player. Cheery is a possible option, but I would also like your perspective on Darthe. If you think he's town, then say so and tell me why. That's not distracting. If you want me to vote Cheery, tell me why I shouldn't be voting Darthe despite all his scummy actions.

[Rob14]

AP, can you articulate why you want DGB lynched? The most I got out of your ISO was that she is your only null read and you have all other mild-strong town reads, but she also hadn't been in the game long at that time, so I don't get how you not having a read on her small number of posts is a strong case at all. It's like saying that all the people that I still had null reads on a few pages into the game on Day 1 must be scum. It's silly to judge that a null read is scum when they've just replaced in and the whole slot (counting both Lyman and DGB) had less than 20 posts and nothing overtly scummy). The scum is NOT DGB, in my opinion.

As for the lynch of Cheery, I'm coming around on that issue. I really, really don't like this sentence:

Just because we're in front now doesn't mean it's a guaranteed win.

No I'm not going to just let you lynch the only person I know that has no chance whatsoever of being what we're looking for with today's flip.
You'd be more likely to get me to cave in on my result's clear than myself.

It's a valid statement to make, but I hate the way he phrased it, especially considering that it was responding to this:

Just let us lynch you. We're winning anyway, right?

Also, DGB, a one-shot power night 2 is not impossible. It depends on Cheery's meta for that. I personally use one-shot powers night one on a very rare basis. I only do it if town looks to be ahead OR if I've made myself a huge target for scum. Otherwise, I save it until I have a good target to use it for (while aiming to use it by Night 3, latest). At the same time, using specifically a gunsmith on night 2 with two claimed millers - now that is sketchy because he has the most clear targets possible right in front of him. Even if they are potential vig targets, the potential town gain from using that ability is significantly more than the potential town loss if they're both investigated and vig'd, as gunsmith isn't a great PR anyway considering that it can out vigs and cops. I certainly would have played gunsmith much differently going into Night 1. I would have investigated mal for sure (he had the least content at the time and therefore the more difficult read among the two millers). I would assume most people would have done that as well. If you are town, Cheery, your choice of night actions was incredibly poor.

[Rob14]

If you haven't made yourself a target as strong town, you're unlikely to be SK'd or NK'd. Also, if this happened, your night action means nothing anyway.
If you haven't been a point of major discussion during the day, you're unlikely to be vig'd. Also, if this happened, your night action means nothing anyway.
If you don't play badly and the above two are true, you're unlikely to be lynched.

You don't need to use your power Night 1. I acknowledge your opinion on the matter, but also recognize that plenty of others have different opinions.

In this specific situation, Cheery's actions ARE questionable, though.

[Rob14]

Also, we should stop discussing the merits of the use of one-shot night actions in general. This is a discussion of mafia theory while we should be discussing this specific game. As I said above, in this specific game, Cheery's choice of night actions is anti-town.

[Rob14]

I just don't think Cheery would throw himself out there to prevent a lynch on me unprompted.

Town-cred. Especially in your eyes.

Why a 1-shot with two millers? 1 shot with 1 miller makes sense, or 2 shot with two millers.

The 1-shot vs. 2-shot is not necessarily true.

As for the town-cred, Cheery would get boatloads of it while making someone obv-town. The "making someone obv-town" would be very pro-town and make him likely not scum

if you were not already such obv-town.

People were pissed with your gambit. Besides rofl, I don't think anyone honestly wanted to lynch you because you looked scummy. It was mostly a policy lynch push - a push led partially by CKD-scum, IIRC. Essentially, scum loses very little by making a obv-town into a confirmed-town but gains a lot in town-cred. This isn't anti-town, per se, but there's a big scum motivation for Cheery's actions.

Also, reaching back a post, I've already stated that one-shots can easily use actions after night one. But

in this specific situation

gunsmith should have been used night one. Imagine how Day 2 would have gone if we had a gunsmith-guilty or gunsmith-innocent on Mal or a gunsmith-innocent on BC. Now think about how Day 2 (or the rest of the game) would have gone had we lost the gunsmith ability due to the vig-target being the same as the gunsmith-target (already unlikely because we had no claimed vig and two millers to choose from if one existed). How would it differ from what we have now? Basically not at all. Not only does this reinforce my earlier point that Cheery's contribution as claimed gunsmith could be easily scum-motivated, but it also shows how he should have used his action night 1 given the circumstances because of how heavily it would have helped out the town.

And damn it DGB, I'm talking myself into voting Cheery. I want to re-ISO him and the confirmed scum to check for some stuff first, though. Is there any way to ISO people together? Like make a timeline of all posts from four people in the game? Not sure if you can.

[Rob14]

Never argued that Cheery's action was definitely scum motivated or likely scum motivated based on the fact that it could be, nor do I plan to. I'm saying it's very possible in response to your questioning of why scum would do the actions he did, specifically in post #1645. I'm simply making the argument that his actions do not clear him, nor do they make him more likely to be town. I am highly, highly suspicious of people who make claims or perform actions in which they get easy town-cred with no major contribution to town/detraction from scum. It is one of the largest scum-tells there is, in my opinion, and it has served me well in the past. At the same time, Cheery's other posts/actions had me convinced at one point that he was town, which is why I need to look at it again with a clear head tomorrow.

[Rob14]

I was doing it out of Activity Overview, but I'll do it the other way if it let's me isolate multiple players. Thanks, Cheery! You're still possibly scum, though, sorry.

[Rob14]

If Cheery is scum, he bussed hard on CKD and to a lesser extent DC. After reading his ISO with the confirmed members of the scum-team, I do not believe he is scum. His night actions are questionable at best, but I saw very little in their interactions that points to anything but Cheery-town.

Was Cheery's choice of night action bad? Yes.
Was it anti-town? Probably.
Is he scum? No.

[Rob14]

if this doesn't end the game we have enough lynches left to get darthe and malp before lylo

My god, no. This post is bad. You don't think like this as town.

[Rob14]

bus'd 2/3 DGB, not 1/3

[Rob14]

If there a perfectly acceptable townie on the block then why push for another townie.

Explain this sentence

right now

.

@ProHawk - I rescind that assertion - I thought Cheery voted earlier than he did. If it was a bus, it was later than I thought. He's possible scum, maybe, but I still think Darthe should go first. Darthe reads like scum by a lot.

[Rob14]

And you've actually brought up some good points as to why I could be scum now - pity I interacted with the last scum, otherwise we could have caught them based of who I never interacted with wait your slot is the last one I interacted with right? Maybe you are scum after all.
I'm still convinced it's malp, I can't see this game balanced with two milers. The one we know to be a true miller wouldn't have claimed had malp claimed first; if that happened, it wouldn't have even been possible g to have them both vigged.

When you are the last scum, this makes zero sense.

@Rob, trying to find your case on Darthe... I can't. Wall please?

I can do a wall if you want, but it won't be for a day or three. I have a midterm, quiz, and a shit ton of homework coming up this week that I need to get under control.

@PP - I'm not going to respond to speculation that I am scum unless you can produce a viable scenario where I would claim the actions I claimed without any counter-claims from town. Also why I would continuously bring attention on DC and CKD at times when few were talking about them and there were other wagons on people who have flipped town that I could have hopped aboard. But your reaction when questioned interests me.

I disliked your phrasing and didn't realize that you were talking from DGB's POV because you failed to make that clear in your post, in my opinion. I wish Rev hadn't supplied that response, though.

So yeah, will get wall on Darthe going as soon as I can.

[Rob14]

We're on L-1 right now. If it gets closer (within 12 hours), I'll take the hammer to prevent a no lynch. I'm going to try to get that wall out tomorrow if I can so that it can get on this day, but that will be tough and probably unlikely to happen.

[Rob14]

There was nothing wrong with that post Darthe.

[Rob14]

The way DGB said that wasn't back-scratching, as you call it. It's "do what I want today and I'll do what you want tomorrow because if you do what I want, I'm 100% sure there won't BE a tomorrow." That's very, very different than what you described. It's a, in the view of DGB, non-meaningful concession in order to get people to vote Cheery. I think he comes off looking more town for his confidence, personally.

[Rob14]

I have no chance of getting a wall on Darthe up because I just was informed I have to work tomorrow and Wednesday, meaning today is homework day for basically the rest of the week. We're not going to get anywhere on that front this day (and AP is right, he's not going to succeed in pushing DGB/PH). No one else has raised any major concerns, with pretty much every active person stating Cheery is a good option. With that in mind, and acknowledging that it's unlikely that we'll make any more progress this day, here's the hammer on Cheery.

Vote: Cheery

If I'm not here tomorrow, look at Darthe. Hard. I've talked about him a lot in my ISO. There wasn't one big wall, I don't think, but if you use Ctrl+F to check for where I talked about Darthe, I've made my opinions clear. Also, just look at his ISO.

[Rob14]

Lol, I love the intent to kill. And I suppose that DGB saying malp wasn't mafia was enough for all of you to tuck tail? Do me a favor, speed lynch me tomorrow and go full retard when you're left floundering almost at LyLo with no good choice.

you act like there aren't enough lynches left to take care of malp too, something i've mentioned numerous times and made a point of including yours and his names in the shortlist of people who will be dead before any lylo situation, wah wah wah

And here was the mafia reply.

What happened to "I shouldn't make it to LyLo because I made early-game mistakes that would make me a target"? This turnaround makes me more sure that you're scum.

[Rob14]

Then I read Darthe's wall on rofl and returned to not-so-sure.

Make a wall on PH, AP.

[Rob14]

Darthe, Malp in that order. We don't need a third because we will have won by then.

[Rob14]

Scum Zab does not surprise me at all. Scum Zab killed at night does. Next logical question is vig or SK? We could easily have an SK who wants to off the mafia to prevent themselves from being killed or a vig looking out for town.

Vote: Darthe

ISO #14: Pushing for a CC before a lynch of ObvScum-DC.

ISO #19: Does an about-face to bus DC.

ISO #20: LOL

P-edit: In response to AP,

#1: Darthe (obviously, I just voted for him - see above case)

#2: Malpa - very little to no content, trying to make weird claims about what one claimed miller's flip would mean about the other and ISO #14 strikes me as really bad because he pretty much comes right out and says he'll scumhunt when he damn well pleases and feels no pressure to contribute in the meantime. That's not pro-town.

#3: CKD - his end of Day 1 was good, but it could also be scum trying to get his partner to give up info in an attempt to look really, really townish. His early interactions with DC bother me quite a bit, especially now the DC is confirmed scum. I'll build a case on CKD in a future day. He is not the lynch for today unless he does something else.

Hello everyone, this seems to have been a good night. I am glad to have my suspicions of Zab confirmed and have to agree that an SK seems more likely than a Vig to me at this point. For now,

vote BC

in the interest of competing trains.

Here is why this is scummy:

First of all, Darthe is clearly new. And this post has 2 awesome scumtells in it that new players tend to commit.

1. Talking about how well the night went.
2. Assuming that Zabriel died to an SK and not vig. I mean come on you had Zabriel as a suspect and so did several people, so why is a vig unlikely??

Also, that Blood Covenent vote's justification is "competing trains". What. We are like a few hours into D2, why place such a forced vote.

For the record, Darthe, your psychology crap is an appeal to authority, and a bad one at that. A psychologist is not automatically better at the mechanics of the game (i.e. the vote) because the game was made by a set of different psychologists. That's like saying men are better at using electricity because a man discovered it.

Added note: The above was in reference to how Darthe started talking about how he was qualified in the game because he's a psychologist and the game was created by psychologists. It was total lol.

Here are some reasons from early days to be voting Darthe tomorrow. I'll do a more complete wall tomorrow if alive.

Also, pull up an ISO of both him and CKD and look at their combined ISO #17-19

Darthe comes in and votes CKD with weak reasoning (Reasoning that no one could build a wagon or real vote on, so no real danger to his potential scum partner here. Keep that in mind.) What I find interesting here is CKD's response. No vote? Darthe just made the most BS case on him of all time. He argued that CKD was using the power of the subconcious to convince us that Zab and BC are town. If I had Darthe argue something like that against me without refuting the validity of my main point when I posted "Zab-town" or "BC-town," my vote would be instantly on him. Why does CKD not go after him? Makes no sense...unless he doesn't want to draw attention to another scum when CKD, Zab, and DC were all under scrutiny already.

P-edit: I stand by my PH town read, and I will until you give me a good reason not to. As in wall. Also, I think DGB is also a possible target for scum if she's town. She came into this game strong and is clearly a strong town personality. She's also unlikely to have doc protection if any of our VTs are actually fake-claiming doctors (which isn't out of the question when considering balance).

[Rob14]

I wasn't aware I was a death miller.
How did that get past the normality check?

Reread DGB's post and apply common sense to figure out what he means. Thank you.

P.S. Think CKD.

[Rob14]

^No, it won't. In twilight, the wisest course of action is to do nothing except potentially form some cases that are uninfluenced by the flip (such as the one on Darthe). We shouldn't deal in hypotheticals like your posts because we don't know your alignment yet. We'll discuss your posts tomorrow after the flip.

[Rob14]

At first glance, worst scum target of all time. Rofl was a potential target in future days AND had already used all his abilities.

Thinking more, it's very possible that scum lies in (Darthe, ProHawk) because Darthe wouldn't want to target me because I've been outspoken against him, drawing attention to him or ProHawk because he wouldn't want to target AP for the same reason. Darthe is more likely because rofl slightly supported ProHawk (i.e. didn't want to lynch him soon while having no strong opinion on him being town). ProHawk-scum wouldn't kill someone who doesn't want to look at him for another few days, most likely.

On the topic of Cheery's flip, this is why we should have lynched Darthe and not Cheery.

Vote Darthe

Will wall ASAP (and by that I mean this weekend, because I still have a midterm tomorrow.

[Rob14]

Hm. Well Apparently he was shot N1. That info could be important. But IIRC his suspects were zabriel/bc back then.
Hi robbie.

Not necessarily. I was doc-protected and a major target considering all my reads were essentially the scum team and I successfully pushed through the DC lynch. Drmy could have protected me from the shot.

[Rob14]

Our lynches, in this order, are Darthe, Paid Pyro, no lynch (due to MyLo), and then mal. This obviously assumes that nothing else changes.

[Rob14]

Actually PH could be scum, that could be how ckd knows he didn't act.

Hmmmmm..

Don't even think about CKD's final post or his claimed actions. It's likely all lies. He clearly likes the WIFOM based on how he played at end of day after being lynched. Don't let it distract you.

[Rob14]

AP, you need to re-read PH's post. He doesn't say DGB is obv-town. She says me and you are obv-town and DGB/rofl are potentially the best kill targets because they're definitely not on the "to-lynch" list but also don't advantage scum by staying alive in some other way. Only me and you were on the obv-town short list that he provided.

I find PH's analysis of the vote interesting. The way he wrote it almost sounds like he's defending the choice. I'm not sure how to consider that moving forward.

[Rob14]

DGB/rofl are potentially the best kill targets because they're definitely not on the "to-lynch

So, hes basing his DGB read purely on other people's opinions of her?

Come on, AP. He never gave a read of DGB. He was only explaining the rational behind the kill-target as you requested.

[Rob14]

I don't want to be a bitch by asking this every day, but is anyone conf-town by now? Or something close to it?

What is your preoccupation with this and why can't you read yourself to figure the answer out?

[Rob14]

I think Malp is town.

I'm starting to reach that conclusion more and more.

[Rob14]

PP looking not-so-town

[Rob14]

PP, stop being silly.

He's quoted in the past why he thought DGB is town. He never said I wasn't town, so that's just a plain ol' misrep.

There's a difference between Lyman being entirely offline for over a week prior to the kill and other players being offline for a day or two. He didn't even log-in to read the thread and figure out who to kill and drmy was obviously killed for being doc. Ergo, Lyman did not make the kill unless he made a conscious decision to be completely inactive and be replaced while reading the thread while not signed in and making kill by QT in order to help a scum team win that he would have replaced out of. That's so, so, so unlikely. Also, your question here was loaded and makes little sense. I wouldn't have answered it in Prohawk's position either (although he did in the past because he's just that nice).

It was a policy lynch, just not of lynch all liars like you had claimed earlier. LAL means Lynch all Liars not Lynch all Lurkers. See the wiki entry for LAL here: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=LAL

PP, your vote is bad, your posts are bad. This is not a good day for you. Convince me you aren't scum.

[Rob14]

Rev, did you realize you put Darthe at L-1?

[Rob14]

I found one thing interesting about Darthe's votes on your analysis DGB:

Why did you not commit to a vote at all on Day 4, Darthe?

[Rob14]

It was a very thinly veiled ploy for "I wouldn't seal my own fate as scum would I?"

By this logic, when I flip town will you volunteer to be the lynch candidate for tomorrow?

Oh, I see your logic here. So Rev is committing a thinly veiled ploy of "I wouldn't seal my own fate, would I?" but the Darthe post above is a town-tell. It's not like it's the exact same thing or anything.

Meanwhile, ProHawk is buddying me to get a Darthe lynch.

My god, do we have options today. Let's think about it this way. If Rev flips town, what do we have to go on from there? Nothing, that's what. If Darthe flips town, what do we have now? We have PH trying to buddy me, someone who ALSO happens to have a town read on PH, to get the lynch of Darthe. And then it's simple. We lynch the ProHawk.

Yes, I just flip-flopped like crazy on ProHawk. I read my old wall on him and a bit of it is irrelevant because it speculated that BC was scum. Also, his recent play is not so good.

[Rob14]

Also, ProHawk late bus on CKD and quickly moved from a Mal wagon losing steam to a Cheery wagon gaining steam in the last day. Hard bus of Zab on Day 1, though.

[Rob14]

Here are my reads, from most town to most scum. Lynch from bottom to the top.

Me
AP
DGB
Mal
Rev
PP
ProHawk
Darthe

Ask if you have any questions.

[Rob14]

Rev is now at L-1. I do not agree with this wagon at all. He seems pretty obviously town to me. Not as much as AP, but still. I seriously doubt he's scum. Darthe is the last scum, as I've been saying for a long time. I don't think I'll have time to wall him before Thanksgiving. Some stuff has come up IRL. If we can hold the day until then, at least, please do. It doesn't hurt to check some more things out before we do this mislynch.

[Rob14]

Can someone finish of theRev please? Let's get the flip, hopefully he's scum and finish this thing. Otherwise at least we can move on.

Absolutely not. He isn't scum.

[Rob14]

AP: Unless Rev starts acting drastically different than he has been all game, I will not hammer. He is town. I will not be on this wagon. I'll have a case on Darthe ASAP, but I don't have much time to do things this week.

[Rob14]

This is a mislynch.

[Rob14]

So confused on how my Rev read was so wildly off, but GG everyone.

[Rob14]

I didn't feel that not voting was a huge issue. Way I saw it, if I'm town I attack you and await your reaction before voting. I was of course reaction baiting the town, but I thought it was well disguised as reaction baiting you, at least I was hoping the majority thought that. I didn't really care if one person alone was barking at me, unless that said person actually shows why I'm likely scum lol. I felt my attack on you was credible until you showed the town the BC wagon, which forced a change in target. Ideally I wanted darthe and malp left after today's mislynch, if I succeeded there I felt I had a reasonable chance of an unlikely victory. But it gets harder and harder to avoid scrutiny the less people there are, so I wasn't too expectant.

You wouldn't have gotten a mal mislynch, I don't think. He was obv-town in the last day. The only reason people focused on him (unfortunately me included) was because he was a miller and a little bit of odd Day 1 play.

[Rob14]

I derp'd towards the end. I was so unwilling to reconsider my read on Rev considering the mislynch of Cheery and my strong scum read on Darthe that I didn't give your guys' case an honest chance.

[Rob14]

Yeah, thanks 4nxiety! Let me know when you're modding a game again, I enjoyed the originality in this setup. If it was slightly sided against town, it was only because we made (false) assumptions about the frequency of certain roles in a setup. This is the type of game that needs to come up once in a while to discourage setup speculation and encourage scum-hunting based on what people have posted in the game.

[Rob14]

@4nxiety - You could have simply stated that all roles in the game abide by normal rules. Combined with the miller page (which other people posted), this would confirm that millers only get guilty results from cops.