Newbie 1543: Nightmare Mafia (Scum Win)

[serrapaladin]

holy crabcakes, 5 pages

VOTE: thor

[serrapaladin]

I've got a town read on Thor.

You probably shouldn't. He'll run circles around town if he's scum.

We should probably just lynch him now and be done with it.

I don't really see anything in his posts so far that points either way, but I'd be wary of giving him an easy townread. (Before my vote, all I had read was the latest VC to make sure I wasn't accidentally hammering or something.)

wgeurts and copper are town because keen wallposting. I also sort of want to call waffle town, as I don't see newbscum in has position posting to say he doesn't have any reads.

copper: please stop putting text in spoilers.

How can you complain that the very first post of the game lacks reasoning?
I could have given a joke/derp reason, sure, but what reason did you expect me to give that would be helpful? Please be specific about your thoughts at the time.

lol

Let's lynch breshke for empty questions?

VOTE: breshke

Second scum could be chris or brian?

[serrapaladin]

He's not in your scum-list then, is he?

None of breshke's questions (or his interactions in general) reflect a desire to figure out anyone's alignment.

[serrapaladin]

I'm not sure I see BBT. I disagree with most of what he says, but that doesn't mean much. OMGUSing Thor doesn't really seem a sensible scum-strategy in his position.

[serrapaladin]

@thor: You can't really use the same criteria for the two, though. Town-BBT has your alignment to figure out, and weak reasoning in that regard isn't really the same as scum-BBT purposefully antagonising (or provoking a 1 vs. 1 with) town-thor.

@wg: Sure, Breshke is new, but his "trying hard to look town" isn't really of the newb-town variety. Trying to over-analyse (and doing so badly) is a fairly solid newb-town tell, but breshke is one step removed from that, doing things that he believes other people will interpret as town. I think this is most evident in his questions: he feels he should engage with people, and so asks questions about the content of posts, but none of them really give the impression he's trying to form a read on the person he is asking - because he already knows alignments.

[serrapaladin]

@thor: bbt voting you isn't scumhunting, but I'm more inclined to believe that town-bbt finds your attack scummy than that scum-bbt sees a benefit in voting you. I don't see him being that aggressive in this position as scum.

@copper: I never said it's the content of your posts that make you and WG town. I look more at intent than at content. Also, you should probably drop the attitude. Examples of breshke's questions not being any use in figuring out alignments are basically every question he has posted.

And are we actually debating whether we should lynch someone because Thor has trouble reading them? This is not a valid reason to start a wagon early in the day. It's a fair enough suggestion for a compromise lynch, but at this point it's distracting.

The interactions with Brian posted by copper are boring.

[serrapaladin]

lol

[serrapaladin]

I don't feel particularly interested in responding to anything copper said about me. If others want me to, let me know.

Instead, let me quotewall about newbscum breshke:

Vote: Thor

For that vote without a reason.

Like, how can you pick on the newbies without giving them something to defend against?

@Brian i can't tell if you are being serious here?

I wasn't. Although I'm feeling a lot more attached to it now.

Why are you feeling a lot more attached to it?

His second clarifying question towards Brian, without any individual thought, or indication of whether the response might have some bearing on his read on Brian or anyone else. Brian responds in 26, without really saying anything, and bershke doesn't bring it up again.

Thoughts on Copper and Wg?

Not much really, the main cause of Coppers suspicion seems to be based of a disagreement in the RVS stage and what a towns person should do. I see how voting gives town information so in later days but im also going to guess that after wg accidently hammering on someone he would naturally be more careful with his vote. If i was going to pick a townier of the two it would be copper purely because if he continues to lists his reads as he has been doing i think it will be easy to get a read off him.

IIoA. The "analysis" he gives of copper being town for listing his reads is safe, but meaningless.

Reads from posts so far:
Town: Brian
Mild Town: Thor
Mild Scum: Copper223
Null: Everyone else + Breshke (to little content in posts.)

I get why im null but shouldn't thor also be null? or do you think his single post where he only votes you is a step in the right direction for town hence the mild town read?

More clarifying questions, but still lacking any indication of whether a potential response would be relevant to breshke's read on wg. Wg doesn't respond to this, and breshke doesn't follow up, but rather votes wg in 108. The questions obviously weren't intended to be at all useful with regards to his understanding of the game, but rather a way to appear engaged. He's not interested in actually figuring out wg, but wants to show some indication of thought leading to a vote.

Leaning town
Thor:

@BlueBloodToffee:

Voting without reason as 3rd on a wagon, simply won't cut it. Scummy, for the moment, prone to change as soon as you flesh out your play more, after all I had the same read on wgeurts to start up with. fence/scummy.

Aren't I the third on BBT also without stated reason? Why didn't you ask me about that?

I like that you pointed this out as it makes me feel as if you arnt afraid if attention is brought onto you. Although i don't understand why you are voting BBT when you say you aren't specifically reading him as scum but you are reading wgeurts as scum unless you have rescinded that read?

Again, not a line of questioning that puts any pressure on thor or figure out his alignment.

Breshke, if you look I had a valid reason for all my changes. Not taking care would have been doing so without reasons, I think through my votes as they are all the power I have.

I don't like what this post infers. Also you say you had a valid reason for all your changes? You unovted for someone you still thought was scum if you're wincon is the same as mine i don't see how this is a valid reason.

wgeurts and copper are town because keen wallposting. I also sort of want to call waffle town, as I don't see newbscum in has position posting to say he doesn't have any reads.

I disagree, waffle promised to give reads and he still hasn't. He's now in my scum list until he does and then ill reevaluate.

And finally, another post that doesn't show critical thought or a consideration of people's post, only a desire to appear scumhunting. It's too superficial, it doesn't analyse, and it's trying to hide his coasting.

[serrapaladin]

I'm bored waiting for a flight, so I might as well cobble together a reply to copper:

First, I never said that you and WG are town for your level of activity. My comment said something like keen wallposting, which I reflects much more than simply being active. You both have volunteered much information, and your posting style has been loose and fairly aggressive, which in the context of you both being new to the site suggests town. This is something I may need to revise further into the game for you as I get a better idea of how aware of your posting style you are, but when I've seen posts like yours and wg's in newbies, they have come predominantly from town. The fact that your posts have come in walls is quite relevant, as it suggests that you both go through the game sequentially in context, and comment on anything you consider worthwhile. This stems from a mindset of trying to solve the game as a whole. The converse, shorter posts picking out individual things to comment on, often reflect someone searching through the thread for sensible, unattackable comments to make that will give the appearance of contribution.

In games with varying levels of experience, I find quality of content to be one of the least reliable markers for alignment, and the above is the sort of thing I was referring to as looking for intent, or motivation, rather than content. I don't think it's fair to say that the natural reaction to wg's posts would be that he's scum, but rather that he is new, trying to find his footing, and as a result showing somewhat erratic behaviour and hit-and-miss content.

[serrapaladin]

Regarding breshke, I've expanded on my thoughts, though I'm not sure a post-by-post analysis does my argument justice. On the whole, the reason I scumread him is along the same lines as my above reasoning for townreading WG and copper. He is new, and his posting habit and the type of questions he is asking betray more concern about being seen to make worthwhile comments than sorting out alignments.

[serrapaladin]

As to the bbt/Thor situation: thor's inability to read someone well should not be a compelling reason for anyone else as long as we don't know Thor's alignment. The vote itself was in my opinion wasted, and I'm not willing to give Thor's a analysis of bbt's reaction any weight. If Thor genuinely can't read but, I see no reason to believe he's right about bbt's reaction, whereas if the whole thing was a lie, basically a reaction test, the whole thing is bad, because I find its the sort of thing that's difficult to react to in a manner that can't be attacked.

Finally, on the Brian/copper interaction: I genuinely don't see much in that interaction that couldn't come from any combination of alignments. Rather than go through each post and describe how it could make sense as either alignment, I decided to save mine and everyone's time. If anyone has specific comments or questions about that specific interaction, I'd be happy to consider and reply to those, but if copper was trying to make a point with the sequence of posts he cited, that point was lost on me.

[serrapaladin]

Chris, did you not see that the game had started?

[serrapaladin]

Brian reads pretty town to me.

Chris is dodgy.

Waffle could become a liability.

[serrapaladin]

I could definitely see Chris/breshke. I really don't like Chris' timing.

[serrapaladin]

Let's not lynch wg, k?

[serrapaladin]

If we don't have good agreement on a lynch by DL, waffle is absolutely the default lynch.

[serrapaladin]

Chris is probably town, actually. I'm thinking more and more that waffle is probably the best lynch for today.

[serrapaladin]

Come on folks, breshke has logged in (I wanna say twice) since his last post, in which he completely ignored me calling him scum, while still responding to a different part of my post. If that's not caught newbscum, I don't know what is.

[serrapaladin]

Thoughts?

[serrapaladin]

Actually, I think this would be a good time for everyone to give their opinions on breshke's slot and potentially lynching the replqcement.

[serrapaladin]

Waffle is a fine lynch, too.

[serrapaladin]

And yeah, some sort of content will come when I find the time, though I don't have much to say about the recent contributions.

[serrapaladin]

Anyone interest in lynching Thor?

[serrapaladin]

I should also say that I'm not at all interested in lynching waffle anymore. Are we sure we don't wanna lynch jagged? I really like my read on that slot.

Unfortunately, someone is currently living in my living room, so I don't have access to my PC

The second scum might actually be between Thor and Brian.

[serrapaladin]

Did I ever call waffles scummy? What changed my mind on lynching him is that he started posting.

[serrapaladin]

Gut reads. These are not purely gut reads, these are what my initial guesses are base purely on intuition.

Wow

[serrapaladin]

Let's not lynch Thor today.

[serrapaladin]

Look, BBT and thor aren't going anywhere. They're not good D1 lynches.

Jagged is approaching a second prod and hasn't contributed at all to anything since page 12, particularly not about him or breshke. I wouldn't be surprised if we get another replacement for that slot, which is just a massive liability going forward. He really has to be today's lynch. Whether or not I've been useless today should really be seen after jagged's flip.

That being said, this pings loads:

Oh, and for the record;

To town players - the last page or two is how you handle a bad wagon being run on you.
To scum:

[serrapaladin]

I'll fully read and answer questions when I'm not on my phone, but pls just lynch jagged. So little of whats happened recently has been interesting.

Jagged is not just scum for activity reasons... I think bbt is town. I don't feel strongly enough about that to defend him or something, but would probably wager a pint that he's town (note: I am not actually proposing a wager...)

Jagged/Thor seems most likely at the moment.

[serrapaladin]

I will send cookies to anyone that votes jagged. His waffle case and reads list are along the path of least resistance and lack actual analysis.

[serrapaladin]

So what I think happened a few days back was that thor wanted to have his scumbuddy jagged claim, but when wg said he'd hammer without a claim, thor got cold feet, since he probably wouldn't win alone with PR's still around.

[serrapaladin]

Not hammering bbt. If we're really not lynching jagged, I'll hammer waffle a few hours before DL.

[serrapaladin]

They're both town, but BBT has more potential to be useful. DL is in like 30 hours.

[serrapaladin]

So you disagree?

[serrapaladin]

BBT's few most recent posts are absolutely resigned town.

[serrapaladin]

wat

[serrapaladin]

ugh

[serrapaladin]

why does everyone wanna lynch town? :/

[serrapaladin]

ugh

[serrapaladin]

Wait, really? You need to ask whom I'd rather be lynching right now? ffs

[serrapaladin]

hey copper, can we lynch jagged tomorrow when waffles flips town?

[serrapaladin]

<3

[serrapaladin]

but you're so much of a threat to me though :/

[serrapaladin]

soooo... how likely are we to lynch jagged today?

[serrapaladin]

@Copper, I believe we could confirm BBT's role 99% if we kill OC. However I'm not willing to just wagon OC, will you also analyse OC with me?
We need to be fully sure of ourselves.

oh dear

[serrapaladin]

wg and OC are town. copper almost certainly is, too. scum is jagged and one of BBT/Brian.

I've posted my complete thoughts on Breshke. Jagged has a grand total of 10 posts, with the only 3 meaty posts constructed almost entirely out of IIoA, specifically made to be agreeable, but useless. Not voting Jagged because I can't produce a watertight case out of 3 useless posts is ridiculous.

[serrapaladin]

I agree that some of wg's recent posts have been terrible, but I don't see how they tilt the scale from VI to newbscum. I don't agree with BBT's interpretations in 991.

BBT has been all over the place today, but I'm actually leaning town on him. I want to say it's Jagged/Brian, which would be also supported by the flow of votes yesterday and brian's continuous soft-bussing of that slot without ever voting there.

[serrapaladin]

The intent to hammer is pretty scummy in context. Nothing in his play yesterday suggested an immediate desire to lynch him, and the fact that he would seek to end the day so early before the pressure might shift his way is pretty telling.

[serrapaladin]

yup

[serrapaladin]

ffs you guys

[serrapaladin]

what is going on

[serrapaladin]

so let's make this clear, copper. you don't need to claim which, but you are counter claiming a PR?

[serrapaladin]

fuck

[serrapaladin]

idk, single doc or BP isn't really worth outting. it's pretty poor play as either alignment, if much worse as VT.

[serrapaladin]

he should really have waited for intent, but I guess.

[serrapaladin]

i don't actually see him doing it as town, tbf.

[serrapaladin]

@copper: after wg had been hammered, getting you to commit to the cc was optimal play. if he flips VT or scum, the only way you could have known is if you're doc/BP, so asking you to commit doesn't change anything. if he flips BP, you now have no way of talking your way out of it.

[serrapaladin]

unless jagged is the other scum, you should really have waited for intent to hammer

[serrapaladin]

I think that's probably true.

I don't feel like going into theory, but a single doc would need 2 successful protects to give the town another day, so without other PR, it doesn't actually increase win-odds by much.

[serrapaladin]

I guess we're back to ~50% win.

The last scum is jagged or brian. Unfortunately I'm probably tomorrow's lynch.

[serrapaladin]

Because I'm sitting at home ill.

[serrapaladin]

That's kind.

[serrapaladin]

Do you think maybe if I NK you, I can convince the rest of the town to let me live?

[serrapaladin]

Hmm, true. Thanks!

[serrapaladin]

Man I really hope jagged is scum so I haven't been completely wrong this game.

[serrapaladin]

If it's BBT/wg then this has been some pretty great play.

wg/brian would be pretty meh.

[serrapaladin]

Here I am, trying to lynch scum.

So, I see the thread, Day 2, my top scumread has just said some very scummy things. Hey look, L-1, time to post intent. The problem is where exactly? That I didn't say enough on day 1?

There are posts like this one though. Scum caught for wrong reasons?

[serrapaladin]

It would also make wg's claim make sense. If I was his buddy, it really doesn't.

[serrapaladin]

Because it means he's immediately being lynched, and his flip strongly implicates me. As long as his scumbuddy is defending him, he shouldn't give up. Also, I totally wouldn't have defended him as I did, but I guess there's really nothing I can say to make you believe that.

[serrapaladin]

Why? Because I was wrong about wg?

[serrapaladin]

still not scum.

Jagged or Brian?

[serrapaladin]

Serra hasn't done anything this entire game but say "let's lynch Jagged."

In my eyes, that makes Jagged town

. Brian is the last one left.

This makes little sense.

You going to refute my points or just claim you're not scum?

You made points?

That I targeted you is patently not true. Indeed I absolutely wouldn't have targeted copper. He's the only one that has actively said I'm town, and I wouldn't target someone that might be BP.

Your VCA and ISO of wg are just confbias. wg's reads were fairly inconsistent on a lot of people. My lack of interaction with him is because I had written him off as a VI. Why would wg vote Breshke with me to start a counter wagon rather than vote BBT or Thor? Why does there need to be scum on the jagged wagon if no one can give a reason for jagged-town except my tunnel on him? And you realise that you point at one case where we vote together, one case where we were split on the major wagons, and declare that both make me scum with wg?

BBT is right about wgeurts ignoring Serra. Everyone somehow ignored Serra,

Surely if everyone ignores me, wg doing so doesn't imply a connection between us.

[serrapaladin]

Lame

[serrapaladin]

Obviously facts don't matter to you, so a factual defence here seems a waste of breath. I hope that copper sticks to his guns.

[serrapaladin]

If this post was so bad, why did you do absolutely nothing to follow it up? No questioning, no pointing out specifically what was bad about it; you just acknowledged it and tried to move on.

It's what I do. Posts that are really bad, but I don't see as alignment indicative get a throwaway remark (like 116 @thor, 161 @copper, 522 @waffle, etc). Also, check out Mini 1606 which just finished. I think you'll find that most things you see as connections between me and wg also apply to me and the resident VI magikarp in that game.

[serrapaladin]

Look, has any of what I responded in 1185 made even an iota of difference to your read? I have a newbie game to set up and this is boring.

Your stance on meta is moronic. By that same logic people can manipulate their play. If players are perfectly self-aware and 100% able to replicate their town-play, then their play will be indistinguishable as either alignment anyway, so any "scum-hunting" will be just as useless as meta.

I still do like my jagged read, though you may have a point about him declaring intent to hammer. He could certainly have decided to bus wg for towncred, but that's not really in line with his standard of play otherwise. I don't like Brian's sheep of your read, the "you'd better be right" is pretty opportunistic. I think chris' early play was a bit too aggressive to come from scum.

[serrapaladin]

@copper: I've considered BBT, too, as this all feels rehearsed and mechanical, but would they really have cross-voted D1?

[serrapaladin]

Brian or jagged.

[serrapaladin]

BBT was top-scum for wg D1, which is an unusual place for newbscum to put their buddy. Breshke/jagged were always in second scum position, and the only time he voted breshke was this:

you and BBT are scum together

I look forward to this case.

So do I, so far it's just a thought as you and BBT are both experiences and have managed to argue without much consequence about so little. It's unlikely but I'm keeping it in mind as I go along.
Also (Copper, this bracket is for you: THIS VOTE IS FOR PRESSURE AND NOT OMGUS) for now I'm going to place a vote on Breshke until he starts speaking up again.
VOTE: Breshke

with the comment that breshke only needs to speak up for the vote to disappear.

I think D2 a planned cross-bus between wg and jagged makes more sense than a naked one D1 between wg and BBT.

[serrapaladin]

Serra, you had me as town all game and now you change when you see the towniest player in the game coming after me?

Seriously?

I never said he was right. I said his observation about your play today is correct.

[serrapaladin]

Honestly I should of listened to my partner to play low however he's doing amazingly.

Look at this quote from Wgeurts. He knows Serra was under pressure so he puts it out there that his partner is doing 'amazingly'.

If his partner really was doing well, would Wguerts point that out to try and take suspicion off Serra? No, no he wouldn't. He would leave Serra to be set up as a mislynch. It's Wgeurts trying to misdirect.

I know this seems too simple to be true and some people want to overthink things, but seriously, there is nobody else it can be.

Except, again, I was defending him at this point. You wouldn't sacrifice yourself when your buddy is defending you.

[serrapaladin]

Vote Count 1.07

WaffleGhost

: (1) Originalchris
Breshke: (1) serrapaladin

BlueBloodedToffee

: (1)

Thor665

(L-1)

wgeurts

: (4) Breshke,

copper223

,

BlueBloodedToffee

, Brian Skies

Not Voting:

WaffleGhost

,

wgeurts

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

What do you think about this VC?

This might point to chris or me, but that's not how VCA works...

[serrapaladin]

Vote Count 1.08

WaffleGhost

: (1) Originalchris
Breshke: (2) serrapaladin,

wgeurts

BlueBloodedToffee

: (1)

Thor665

(L-1)

wgeurts

: (4) Breshke,

copper223

,

BlueBloodedToffee

, Brian Skies

Not Voting:

WaffleGhost

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

So, what you're saying is this;

Wgeurts was in trouble here. And instead of trying to start a counter-wagon on either myself or WG, he decides to bus his partner.

That's what you're saying, correct?

Why not? Breshke wasn't really in immediate danger.

I would say Brian would potentially bus his team mate D1 if he doesn't see him making it to the end.

[serrapaladin]

You're not reading the vote in context. Because your VCA is bad. Look at 314 I quoted above. He doesn't start a counter-wagon. He puts a vote on breshke to try to get him to post more. It's more coach then bus.

[serrapaladin]

@BBT

He literally says "I'm going to place a vote on Breshke until he starts speaking up again."

That is in no way bussing. Stop being stupid.

[serrapaladin]

I've admitted problems with jagged-scum, but I still think independently he's the most scummy, and I don't have a good reason for either Brian or chris except PoE.

[serrapaladin]

Would you unvote me so jagged doesn't come in and hammer?

[serrapaladin]

If you're going to lynch me later, fine, but we should really discuss what happens the next 2 days while copper and I are still alive.

[serrapaladin]

For reasons mentioned. If there's no way you're stopping your tunnel, I'm going to leave now.

[serrapaladin]

Newbscum also doesn't tend to uber-townread their buddy.

No way I would have tried to kill copper when you and chris had basically promised to tunnel me today.

[serrapaladin]

His reads are inconsistent. If you do the same for Brian you'll find an early strong town in 21, then no read at all in 48 and 61, null in 85, and so on.

[serrapaladin]

Then we have serra, who looks town in my eyes

Reads so far after analysis.
Town: Chris, Serra, Copper, Wgeurts
Mild Town: Brian
Possible Scum: Thor, WaffleGhost
Likely Scum: BBT, Breshke

[serrapaladin]

And then this:

Town

Brian
Copper
OC
Serra
BBT
Jagged

Scum

Jagged and BBT are my highest acum reads however they have ignored each other most of the game (until recentley) and BBT wants a push against Jagged. I may have to fully rethink BBT if OC or Jagged ever flips scum for the reasons I'd given before in earlier posts.

[serrapaladin]

You call that consistent?

[serrapaladin]

Your change in activity levels this DP is also a clear indicator that you're scum.

You couldn't risk being this active with Wgeurts alive because you would have had to interact with him a lot.

So you start asking me questions and because I reply I'm scum? Had I ignored your posts, you'd probably have called me scum for that, too?

[serrapaladin]

All the case analysis Wgeurts did on BBT D2 for why he was starting to see BBT as town was based on the idea that if OC is scum then BBT is town, and he never even considered the alternative scenario.

I could see that. Either way, I really don't think BBT is scum:

unless jagged is the other scum, you should really have waited for intent to hammer

Why?
I knew BBT could switch at any moment and I could draw out the 2nd PR.

[serrapaladin]

bbt: who are you voting tomorrow out of brian and chris?

[serrapaladin]

I will not vote anybody but Serra. For the rest of this game.

Man do I want to hammer myself so you can struggle and look like a complete moron tomorrow, but I probably shouldn't do that to copper.

[serrapaladin]

I'll leave that to copper.

[serrapaladin]

I really hope you're town so you get to feel bad about how stupid you're being.

[serrapaladin]

Good luck, town.

[serrapaladin]

I'd probably still go for brian over chris, but I guess we're out of time.

[serrapaladin]

BBT's unwillingness to discuss what happens tomorrow may well have cost us this game.

[serrapaladin]

You're an idiot.

[serrapaladin]

Nah, I won't write up a post I might not get to make.

[serrapaladin]

Cute.

[serrapaladin]

Nope, beli is likely awake, and was presumably told by skittles not to let twilight last until he has time to write a flip, so he could lock it at any time.

I'm not petty enough to waste everyone's time by trolling in twilight.

[serrapaladin]

The football is exciting. If this is still open in a few I might spam some thoughts. Really though, you don't hammer me less than 24 hours into the day and tell me to contribute in twilight. We haven't even had jagged comment...

[serrapaladin]

ugh